2020 in Charts

A lookback at Pakistan’s Economy

Research Team
1stJan, 2021
Capital Market Performance

KSE-100 Monthly Returns

50000 20%
15%
40000 10%
5%
30000 0%
-5%
20000 -10%
-15%
10000 -20%
-25%
0 -30%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Monthly Close MoM Returns

KSE-100 Annual Returns

60,000 60%
50%
50,000
40%
40,000
30%
30,000 20%
10%
20,000
0%
10,000
-10%
- -20%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

Annual Close YoY Returns

Capital Market Performance

Top 10 Outperformers of CY20

300%

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%
VANASPATI & TECH. & COMM. ENGINEERING PAPER & BOARD CEMENT REFINERY WOOLLEN SYNTHETIC & GLASS & AUTO. PARTS
ALLIED RAYON CERAMICS

Top 10 Under-performers of CY20

5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
INV. BANKS / COS. JUTE OMCs FERTILIZER COMM. BANKS TRANSPORT POWER GEN. & REIT E&P TOBACCO
DIST.
Capital Market Performance

Top 10 Outperformers of CY20

700%
600%

500%

400%

300%
200%

100%

0%
KPUS SERF ARPAK TRG PIOC SYS SSOM AEL MTIL NETSOL

Top 10 Under-performers of CY20

0%

-10%
-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

-70%
FNEL PMI 786 DINT BAPL FNBM CLOV HASCOL FRSM SNGP
Mutual Funds Sector Performance

Open-ended Funds Assets Under Management (PKR Bn.)

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20*
As at Nov’20. Source: MUFAP

Comparison of AUM Growth (YoY) with KSE-100 Return and Treasury Yield
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20*

KSE-100 Return 3-Yr PIB Rate AUM Growth YoY

Foreign Portfolio Invesments

Remittances (USD Mn.)

3,000.00 40%

2,500.00 30%
20%
2,000.00
10%
1,500.00
0%
1,000.00
-10%
500.00 -20%
0.00 -30%
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Monthly Remittance Growth MoM

FIPI-LIPI Portfolio (USD Mn.)

300 226 230
200 110
100 1 3 22 20
0
-100 -31 -29 -12
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600 -539
COS.

BANKS
F-CORP.

O/S PAK

BROKER

INSUR.
F-INDV.

INDV.

M-FUND
NBFC

OTHER
Macro Indicators Lookback

Inflation vs. Discount Rate (Annual) Inflation vs. Discount Rate (Monthly)
15% 1.5% 16%
1.0% 14%
10% 0.5% 12%
0.0% 10%
5% -0.5% 8%
-1.0% 6%
0% -1.5% 4%
-2.0% 2%
-5% -2.5% 0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 5MFY21

Real Int. Rate Inflation Discount Rate

Real Rate (LHS) NCPI Policy Rate

Comparison of Yield Curve NCPI vs. WPI

16.0% 20.0%
14.0%
12.0% 15.0%
10.0%
8.0% 10.0%
6.0%
4.0% 5.0%
2.0%
0.0% 0.0%
1W 2W 1M 2M 3M 4M 6M 9M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 NCPI WPI

External Account Performance

Current Account Balance (USD Mn.)

600 3.0%
400 2.0%
200 1.0%
0 0.0%
-200 -1.0%
-400 -2.0%
-600 -3.0%
-800 -4.0%
Jul'19 Aug'19 Sep'19 Oct'19 Nov'19 Dec'19 Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Nov'20

C/A Balance C/A Balance (% of GDP)

Trade Balance (USD Mn.)

5,000 0

4,000 -500

-1,000
3,000
-1,500
2,000
-2,000
1,000 -2,500

0 -3,000
Jul'19 Aug'19 Sep'19 Oct'19 Nov'19 Dec'19 Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar'20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 Jul'20 Aug'20 Sep'20 Oct'20 Nov'20

Exports of Goods Imports of Goods Trade Balance

External Account Performance

FX Reserves (USD Mn.)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
January, 20R February, 20R March, 20 April, 20 May, 20 June, 20 July, 20 August, 20 September, 20R October, 20 November, 20

NET RESERVES WITH SBP NET RESERVES WITH BANKS TOTAL LIQUID FX RESERVES

Annual (USD Mn.)

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

NET RESERVES WITH SBP NET RESERVES WITH BANKS TOTAL LIQUID
FX RESERVES
Banking Sector’s Performance

Banks Deposits and Advances (PKR Tn) Growth Rate YoY%

18.0 70%
16.0
60%
14.0
12.0 50%
10.0 40%
8.0
30%
6.0
4.0 20%
2.0 10%
-
0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Advances (PKR Tn) Deposits (RHS) Deposits Advances Investments

ADR vs. IDR Ratio of Banks Deposit Category-wise Growth (YoY)

72% 40%
68% 35%
64% 30%
60% 25%
56% 20%
52% 15%
48% 10%
44% 5%
40% 0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
ADR IDR
Government Private Sector Salaried Person
Banking Sector’s Performance

Banking Sector NPLs (PKR Bn.)

620 20%
600
580 15%
560
10%
540
520 5%
500
480 0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

NPLs (PKR Bn) YoY %

Banks Spread on Outstanding Loans Banks Spread on Fresh Loans

14.0% 7.0% 16.0% 7.0%
12.0% 6.0% 14.0% 6.0%
10.0% 5.0% 12.0% 5.0%
8.0% 4.0% 10.0% 4.0%
8.0%
6.0% 3.0% 6.0% 3.0%
4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0%
2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Loan Yield Deposit Rate Spread Loan Yield Deposit Rate Spread
Cement Sector Performance

Cement Demand (MTs.)

60
50
40
30
20
10
-
CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 11MCY20

North South

Region-wise Monthly Dispatches Monthly Dispatches Breakup

7.00 7.00
6.00 6.00
5.00 5.00
4.00 4.00
3.00 3.00
2.00 2.00
1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

North South Total Local Exports Total

Oil Sector Performance

Petroleum Products Demand (Mn. Ton.)

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 11MCY20

Product-wise Oil Demand (Mn. Tn.) Monthly Oil Production (Barrels per day)
30.0 90,000
80,000
25.0
70,000
20.0 60,000
15.0 50,000
10.0 40,000
30,000
5.0
20,000
0.0 10,000
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 11MCY20
0
MS HSD FO Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
Fertilizer Sector’s Performance

Annual Fertilizer Demand (Mn. Ton.)

12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
-
CY'12 CY'13 CY'14 CY'15 CY'16 CY'17 CY'18 CY'19 11MCY'20

UREA DAP Others

Monthly Fertilizer Offtake (‘000 Ton.)

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

UREA DAP Others

Fertilizer Sector Performance

Fertilizer (‘000 Ton.) Urea (‘000 Ton.)

1,600.00 350% 1,400.0 500%
1,400.00 300%
1,200.0 400%
1,200.00 250%
200% 1,000.0
1,000.00 300%
150% 800.0
800.00 200%
100% 600.0
600.00
50% 100%
400.00 400.0
0%
200.00 200.0 0%
-50%
0.00 -100% 0.0 -100%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Monthly Growth Monthly Growht

DAP (‘000 Ton.) CAN (‘000 Ton.)

400.0 250% 100.0 250%
350.0 200% 200%
80.0
300.0 150% 150%
250.0 60.0
100% 100%
200.0
50% 40.0 50%
150.0
100.0 0% 0%
20.0
50.0 -50% -50%
0.0 -100% 0.0 -100%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Monthly Growth Monthly Growth

Automobile Sector Performance

Passenger Car Sales CY20 Motorcycle Sales - CY20

14,000 160,000 180,000 2,500,000
12,000 140,000 160,000
140,000 2,000,000
10,000 120,000
100,000 120,000
8,000 100,000 1,500,000
80,000
6,000 80,000 1,000,000
60,000 60,000
4,000 40,000 40,000 500,000
2,000 20,000 20,000
- - - -

Jul-19

Jul-20
Jun-20
Aug-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

May-20
Sep-19

Jan-20

Aug-20

Nov-20
Feb-20

Mar-20

Sep-20
Oct-19

Oct-20
Monthly Sales Total Sales Monthly Total

Motorcycle Sales - CY20 Tractors

1,000 8,000 6,000 60,000
7,000 5,000 50,000
800
6,000
5,000 4,000 40,000
600
4,000 3,000 30,000
400 3,000 2,000 20,000
2,000
200 1,000 10,000
1,000
- - - -

Monthly Total Monthly Total


THE TEAM
CEO
Zahid Ali Habib
Zahid@abaalihabib.com
(021) 32425022
RESEARCH TEAM
Contact: (021) 32429665, Ext. 106
Mohammad Zubair - Research Analyst
zubair@abaalihabib.com
Behroze Attique– Research Analyst
behroz@abaalihabib.com
Ayesha Abid – Research Analyst
ayesha.abid@abaalihabib.com
REP-055
SALES TEAM
Zaheer Ahmed - Head of Institutional
Sales Karachi Office
Zaheer.ahmed@abaalihabib.com
(021) 32418693-94 Room # 419, 419 A & 421, 4th Floor,
Pakistan Stock Exchange, I.I.
Salman Ahmed - Head of Retail Sales Chundrigarh Road, Karachii
(021) 32412491 Contact: 021-32429665
Cell: +92 3312766771
Syed Khalid Ahmed - Equity Trader
Syedkhalid@abaalihabib.com
(021) 32429664
Ammara Hayat- Equity Trader https://twitter.com/Aba_Ali_Habib
ammara@abaalihabib.com
(021) 32429664 https://www.facebook.com/aah162
Muhammad Faisal - Equity Trader https://www.linkedin.com/company/
faisal@abaalihabib.com aba-ali-habib-securities/
(021) 32464835