SSABSA

SENIOR SECONDARY ASSESSMENT BOARD OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA PUBLIC EXAMINATION 2003

2003 SAMPLE MATHEMATICAL METHODS PAPER

The external assessment requirements of this subject are listed on page 2.
FOR OFFICE
USE ONLY Graphics calculator

SUPERVISOR ATTACH SACE REGISTRATION NUMBER LABEL Brand

CHECK
TO THIS BOX Model

Computer software

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Time: 3 hours
Pages: 37

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RE-MARKED
Questions: 14
Examination material: one 37-page question booklet
one SACE registration number label

Approved dictionaries, notes, calculators, and computer software may be used.

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Instructions to Candidates

1. You will have 10 minutes to read the paper. You must not write in your question booklet during this reading
time but you may make notes on the scribbling paper provided.

2. Answer all parts of Questions 1 to 14 in the spaces provided in this question booklet. There is no need

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to fill all the space provided. You may write on pages 15 and 22 if you need more space, making sure to
label each answer clearly.

3. The total mark is approximately 174. The allocation of marks is shown below:

Question 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

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Marks 9 7 15 12 12 13 11 6 9 14 13 15 24 14

4. Questions 10 and 11 are related. You should attempt them in this order.

5. Appropriate steps of logic and correct answers are required for full marks.

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6. Show all working in this booklet. You are strongly advised not to use scribbling paper. Work that you
consider incorrect should be crossed out with a single line.

7. Use only black or blue pens for all work other than graphs and diagrams, for which you may use a sharp
dark pencil.

8. State all answers correct to three significant figures, unless otherwise stated or as appropriate.

9. Diagrams, where given, are not necessarily drawn to scale.

10. The list of mathematical formulae is on page 37. You may remove the page from this booklet before the
examination begins.

11. Complete the box on the top right-hand side of this page with information about the electronic technology
you are using in this examination.

12. Attach your SACE registration number label to the box at the top of this page.
 This 2003
This 2003 sample
sample Mathematical
Mathematical Methods
Methods paperpaper shows
shows the structure
the structure of the
of the examination
examination and and
the the
stylestyle of questions
of questions
that may be
that may be used. used.

2003 SAMPLE MATHEMATICAL METHODS PAPER

The purpose of this sample paper is to show the structure of the Mathematical Methods examination and
the style of questions that may be used. The following extracts are adapted from the Mathematical
Methods Stage 2 Curriculum Statement and SACE Curriculum Bulletin 2 (Term 2, 2003).

Assessment Component 3: Examination

This assessment component is designed to assess primarily Learning Outcomes 1 to 5. It is weighted
at 50%.
The 3-hour external examination will be based on the subtopics and key questions and key ideas

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outlined in the four topics. The considerations for developing teaching and learning strategies are
provided as a guide only, although applications described under this heading may provide useful
contexts for examination questions.

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The examination paper will not be divided into sections. Some questions will focus on knowledge and
routine skills and applications, and others will focus on analysis and interpretation. Some questions
may require students to interrelate their knowledge, skill, and understanding of topics. The skills and
understanding developed through directed investigation and project work will be assessed in the

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examination.
SSABSA will assume that students will have access to graphics calculators and/or computers during
the external examination. It is expected that questions in the examination will be a mixture of the
following types:
• Graphics calculator and/or computer inactive questions. There is no advantage in using a
graphics calculator or computer to answer these questions.
• Graphics calculator and/or computer neutral questions. These questions can be solved without a

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graphics calculator or computer, although the electronic technology may be used.
• Graphics calculator and/or computer active questions. These questions require the use of a
graphics calculator or computer for their solution.
Students will need to be discerning in their use of electronic technology to solve questions in
examinations.

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Adapted from Mathematical Methods Stage 2 Curriculum Statement, SSABSA, Wayville, 2002, pp. 30–1

Mathematical Methods

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The 2003 Mathematical Methods examination will be designed to allow students to write their
responses in the question booklet itself. Each part of each question will be followed by an
answer space printed with a light-coloured grid on which students write their responses.
The question booklet will contain extra pages of grid paper for students who need more space
for their answers.
The question booklet will also contain a formula sheet.
The examination paper will not be divided into sections.

Adapted from SACE Curriculum Bulletin 2, SSABSA, Wayville, 2003, p. M–5

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 1

Ashley and Kim take part in a fishing competition. Each catches a different type of fish. Ashley
catches an adult mullet measuring 38 centimetres in length. Kim catches an adult bream
measuring 45 centimetres in length.

(a) The length of adult mullet can be modelled by a normal distribution with a mean of
30 centimetres and a standard deviation of 3.5 centimetres.
Find the proportion of adult mullet measuring 38 centimetres or more in length.

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(2 marks)

(b) The length of adult bream can be modelled by a normal distribution with a mean of
40 centimetres and a standard deviation of 5 centimetres.
Find the proportion of adult bream measuring 45 centimetres or more in length.

AM (2 marks)

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(c) Can Ashley or Kim claim to have caught the larger fish of that type? Explain your
answer.

(2 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(d) Determine the length of an adult bream that would be comparable to an adult mullet
measuring 38 centimetres in length.

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P (3 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 2

Many random samples of twenty-five students are taken. The weight of each student is
measured and the mean weight of each sample of twenty-five students is calculated.
Let W be the variable denoting the weight of individual students and let M be the variable
denoting the mean weight of the samples of twenty-five students.
One of the two histograms below corresponds to the distribution of W and the other to the
distribution of M:
Histogram 1

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0.075
relative frequency

0.050

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0.025

0.000

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30 40 50 60
weight (kilograms)

Histogram 2
0.20

M
relative frequency

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

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30 40 50 60
weight (kilograms)

(a) Describe the shape of the distribution in:

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(i) Histogram 1.

(ii) Histogram 2

(2 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(b) (i) The distribution of which variable is shown in:

Histogram 1?

Histogram 2?

(ii) Give a reason for your answer to part (i).

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(3 marks)

(c) It can be claimed that the means of the distributions in the two histograms are the same.
Is this claim correct? Explain your answer.

AM (2 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 3

In a certain fast-food outlet the number of customers (X) served in any 15-minute period is
approximately normally distributed, with a mean µ of 130 and a standard deviation σ of 15.

(a) On the horizontal axis of the normal density curve below, write the values that correspond
to the distribution of the number of customers served in one 15-minute period.

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(1 mark)

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(b) Find an interval, centred at the mean, that includes approximately 95% of the values
of X.

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(1 mark)

(c) Find the probability that in a randomly selected 15-minute period the outlet serves
between 135 and 147 customers.

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(2 marks)

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The fast-food outlet is about to be reorganised. The management wants to estimate the new
mean µ from sample data and assumes that the standard deviation will be unchanged. It hopes
to estimate the new mean µ with 95% confidence and within a margin of error ± 5.

(d) Find the smallest number of periods n that should be considered in order to achieve this
margin of error.

(3 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

Soon after the reorganisation the numbers of customers served in each 15-minute period are
counted. Twenty-five randomly selected periods have a sample mean x of 141.2.

(e) The management then issues the following statement: ‘The management is 95% confident
that the mean number of customers served each 15 minutes is between 135 and 147.’

(i) Show the calculations that lead to this statement. Use the standard deviation σ
of 15, which the management assumes will be unchanged.

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(3 marks)

(ii) What is the meaning of ‘95% confident’ in the management’s statement?

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(iii) Is the management justified in claiming that the mean number of customers served
in a 15-minute period has increased? Give reasons for your answer.

(3 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 4

It is known that 10% of Australian teenagers participate in extreme sports.

(a) A random sample of eighty teenagers is taken. The teenagers are asked about their
participation in extreme sports.
What is the probability that:

(i) exactly one teenager participates in extreme sports?

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(2 marks)

(ii) no more than one teenager participates in extreme sports?

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(2 marks)

(iii) at least one teenager participates in extreme sports?

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(iv) at least twenty teenagers participate in extreme sports?
(2 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(b) Eighty teenagers are now selected from the audience at an extreme sports carnival.

(i) Is the value of 10% still appropriate? Explain your answer.

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(2 marks)

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(ii) Will the characteristics of the binomial model still apply? Justify your answer.

P (2 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 5

An experiment was carried out. The weight y of a chemical produced in the experiment
depended on the amount of heat x applied.

The following data were produced:

x 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.7

y 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.3

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The data above are presented as the following scatter plot. The strength of the linear correlation
between x and y is given as r 2 = 0.86047.

Weight of chemical when heated

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1.8
1.6
1.4

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1.2
y 1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

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0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
x

(a) (i) Explain why weight is the dependent variable.

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(ii) Interpret the value of r in this experiment.
(1 mark)

(2 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(iii) Do there appear to be any outliers? If so, circle the data point(s) on the graph on
the page opposite.

(1 mark)

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Three possible lines of best fit are listed below. Each line has been placed on the scatter plot
below.
Line A: y = 0.5x − 0.5

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Line B: y = 0.75x − 0.85
Line C: y = 0.57x − 0.48

Weight of chemical when heated

B

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1.8
C
1.6 A
1.4
1.2
y 1.0
0.8

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0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

A
x

(b) (i) Using all the data given above, write A, B, or C in the box below to indicate which

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is the line of best fit by eye.

Line

(ii) Give reasons for your answer to part (i).

(2 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(c) Refer to the following table, which shows residual values for each of the three
possible lines of best fit.
Does the table confirm or change your answer to part (b)? Explain your answer.

Residual A Square Residual B Square Residual C Square

Residual A Residual B Residual C
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 −0.1180 0.0139
0.1000 0.1000 −0.0500 0.0025 −0.0600 0.0036
0.2500 0.0625 0.0250 0.0006 0.0690 0.0048
0.3000 0.0900 0.0500 0.0025 0.1120 0.0125

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0.3000 0.0900 −0.1000 0.0100 0.0700 0.0049
0.0500 0.2500 −0.0000 0.0000 0.2420 0.0586
−0.0500 0.0025 −0.6250 0.3906 −0.3290 0.1082
SUM 1.4000 0.5050 −0.5650 0.4062 −0.0140 0.2065

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(2 marks)

(d) (i) If the last point was omitted would your answer to part (b) stay the same or
change?

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(ii) If your answer changes, which line would then be the line of best fit? Give reasons
for your answer.
(1 mark)

(3 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

You may write on this page if you need more space to finish your answers. Make sure to label each
answer carefully (e.g. ‘Question 3(e)(ii) continued’).

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 6

A lava flow moves more slowly as it cools. The distance from the start of a lava flow to
the tip of the lava flow can be modelled algebraically by the following function, where t is
the number of units of time since the lava flow started:

f (t) = 5(2 – 0.8t).

(a) (i) On the axes below, sketch the graph of the function D = f (t).

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D

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(ii)
0
5 10 15

Describe how the lava flow changed over the time shown on the graph above.
20
t

(2 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(b) (i) Using natural logarithms, rewrite the equation D = 5(2 – 0.8t), showing that

ln (2 − D 5 )
t = .
ln (0.8)

(ii)

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Determine t for D = 8.
(4 marks)

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(2 marks)

(c) Is it possible to determine the time it would take for the distance D to reach 10 units
in length? Explain your answer.

SA (3 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 7

(a) Let f(x) = x2 – 4x + 7.

Determine the average rate of change of the function f(x) with respect to x, between
x = 3 and x = 5.

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(3 marks)

(b) (i) Derive an expression for the instantaneous rate of change of the function
f (x) = 5x2 for any x. Explain your reasoning.

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(ii) Determine the instantaneous rate of change of the function f (x) = 5x2 at x = 3.
Explain what this value means.

LE (3 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 8

dy
Find for parts (a), (b), and (c). There is no need to simplify your answers.
dx

(a) y = x 3 + 5 x 2 − 3x + 1 .
x

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(2 marks)

(b) y = 3e4x.

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(1 mark)

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(c) y = ( x 3 + 7 x ) 2 ln x.

(3 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 9

Let f(x) = (x – 2)(x2 – 9).

(a) Find f ′( 4) and give an interpretation of it.

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(b) On the graph below, sketch f ′(x). Label the x-intercepts of f ′(x).

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5

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x
-3 0 3

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-5

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-10

(3 marks)

(c) What is the connection between the x-intercepts of f ′(x) and the x-values of the
turning-points of f (x) = (x – 2)(x2 – 9)?

(2 marks)
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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

You may write on this page if you need more space to finish your answers. Make sure to label each
answer carefully (e.g. ‘Question 3(e)(ii) continued’).

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AM
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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 10

A harmful pollutant was spilt in Lake Emmie. The concentration of the pollutant was
measured every second day for forty days after the spill.
A graph of the concentration C (milligrams per cubic metre) of the pollutant versus
time t (days) for Lake Emmie is shown below:

C (milligrams per cubic metre) versus t (days) for Lake Emmie

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C (milligrams per cubic metre)

10

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8

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4

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
t (days)

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(a) Describe how the concentration of the pollutant changed over the forty days.

SA (2 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

A graph of ln C versus time t (days), including the equation of the line of best fit to the
data, is given below. The corresponding residual plot is also given.

Ln C versus t
2.5

2.0

1.5
ln C

1.0

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0.5

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

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t (days)
ln C = −0.0482t + 2.2884
r2 = 0.9852

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Residuals of ln C versus t
0.20
0.15
0.10
residuals of ln C

0.05
0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

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-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
-0.20
t (days)

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(b) (i) How well can the relationship between concentration and time be modelled with
an exponential function? Refer in your answer to both the graph of ln C versus
time t (days) and the residual plot.

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(ii) Using the equation of the line of best fit, ln C = −0.0482t + 2.2884, show that
C = 9.86 e −0.048 t .

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(3 marks)

(iii) Determine the approximate percentage reduction in C per day.

PL (2 marks)

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(c) Find the concentration of the pollutant on day 15, as predicted by the model
C = 9.86 e −0.048 t .

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(1 mark)

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(d) Lake Emmie will be safe for recreational use when the concentration of the pollutant
is 0.5 milligrams per cubic metre or less.
Determine, according to the model C = 9.86 e −0.048 t , when this will be.

(3 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 11

This question relates to Question 10. You can answer this question successfully even if
you did not complete Question 10.

Lake Emmie flows into Lake Taza, which also became contaminated by the pollutant.
The concentration of the pollutant in Lake Taza was also measured every second day for
forty days after the spill in Lake Emmie. A graph of the concentration C (milligrams per
cubic metre) of the pollutant versus time t (days) for Lake Taza is shown below:

C (milligrams per cubic metre) versus t (days) for Lake Taza

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C (milligrams per cubic metre)

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4

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2

0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42
(d )
t (days)

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(a) Describe how the concentration of the pollutant in Lake Taza changed over the
forty days.

(b)

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(i)
(3 marks)

Three algebraic models are shown below. Tick the box by the most appropriate
model for the relationship between C and t for Lake Taza.

C = 20 (e −0.1t − e −0.2 t )
C = 20 (e −0.2 t − e −0.0998 t )
C = 20 (e −0.15t − e −0.25t )
(1 mark)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(ii) Explain how you decided which model is most appropriate.

(2 marks)

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(c) Using the model you identified in part (b), accurately determine when the

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concentration was at its maximum and Lake Taza was at its most dangerous.

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(d) (i) Determine the average rate of change between days 8 and 12, and interpret
the result.

(ii)

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Using differentiation, determine the instantaneous rate of change on day 8.
(3 marks)

(2 marks)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 12

During a recent heatwave a mathematics teacher announced that, if the temperature on the
following day reached 41° C by 1.00 p.m., the afternoon test would be cancelled.
The students started to record the temperatures from 8.00 a.m. in order to predict whether
or not the test would be cancelled. The following results and scatter plot were presented:

Time of Day Temperature (T) Temperature recorded hourly

T
8.00 a.m. 29.0
9.00 a.m. 31.4 45

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10.00 a.m. 35.3 40

temperature (° C)
35
11.00 a.m. 37.8
30
12.00 noon 39.7 25

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20
15
10
5
0 t

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6
time (hours)

(a) A polynomial was fitted to the data, giving a quadratic equation of the form
T = −0.171t2 + 3.81t + 25.1, where r2 = 0.992.

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T
45
40
temperature (° C)

35
30
25

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20
15
10
5
0 t

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6
time (hours)

(i) Interpret the significance of the value of 25.1 in the equation above.

(1 mark)

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(ii) Interpret the value for r2.

(1 mark)

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(iii) Using this quadratic model, determine and interpret the rate of change of the
temperature at 11.00 a.m.

PL
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(3 marks)

(iv) Using this quadratic model, did the students predict that the test would be

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cancelled? Explain your answer.

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

In reality the temperatures continued to rise, such that the maximum temperature occurred at
1.40 p.m., as shown in the table below. A scatter plot and new polynomial model are also
presented.

Temperature recorded hourly

Time of Day Temperature (T) T
8.00 a.m. 29.0 45
9.00 a.m. 31.4 40

temperature (° C)
10.00 a.m. 35.3 35
11.00 a.m. 37.8 30
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12.00 noon 39.7 20
1.00 p.m. 40.5 15

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1.40 p.m. 41.0 10
2.00 p.m 40.3 5
0 t
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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time (hours)
T = −0.34t2 + 4.8t + 24
r2 = 0.99

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(b) (i) Using this new quadratic model, determine the rate of change of the
temperature at 11.00 a.m.

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(ii) Determine the temperature that this new model predicted for 1.00 p.m. and
(2 marks)

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compare it with the temperature that the first model predicted.

(2 marks)

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that may be used.

(c) Compare the predictions from the models in part (a) and part (b) with the actual
temperature at 1.00 p.m. Comment on the reliability of each of these predictions.

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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 13

Ace Racket Company manufactures tennis rackets in a standard size and a large size.
The manufacture of each standard-size racket requires 0.125 kilograms of alloy.
The manufacture of each large racket requires 0.4 kilograms of alloy. Each week
40 kilograms of alloy is available.
Each standard-size racket requires 10 minutes of manufacturing time and each large
racket requires 12 minutes of manufacturing time. Each week 40 hours of manufacturing
time is available.
The standard-size racket is in high demand and the company decides to manufacture at
least sixty-four of these rackets each week.

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The company makes a profit of $10 on each standard-size racket and a profit of $15 on
each large racket. All rackets manufactured are sold.

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(a) In the spaces below, complete the linear program that, when solved, will indicate the
number of standard-size rackets (x) and large rackets (y) that, when sold, will
maximise the profit P for Ace Racket Company.

P
Maximise P = _____________

Subject to

alloy constraint A: ________ x + 0.4y ≤ 40

manufacturing time constraint B: 10x + 12y ≤ ________

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demand constraint C: x _______ 64

non-negativity constraints: x ≥ 0, y ≥ 0. (4 marks)

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(b) On the graph below, label the lines that represent the equality of constraints A, B, and
C given in part (a).
y

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400

300

200

100

x
100 200 300 400 (3 marks)

(c) On the graph in part (b), shade the feasible region. (3 marks)

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 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(d) (i) Determine the optimal solution and the corresponding value of P.

(3 marks)

(ii) Interpret the optimal solution.

LE (2 marks)

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(e) Will the optimal solution change if the profit on the standard-size racket increases to
$13? Give reasons for your answer.

(f)

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The amount of alloy available each week increases from 40 kilograms to 50 kilograms.

(i) Rewrite constraint A.

(3 marks)

(ii)

(iii)
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On the graph in part (b), draw in a line that represents the equality of the new
constraint A.
(2 marks)

How does the new constraint A affect the optimal solution you gave in part (d)(i)?
(1 mark)

(3 marks)
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This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

QUESTION 14

A town of 50 000 people had two health clubs. The Ace Health Club (AHC) had 10 000
members and the Get-a-Life Club (GLC) had 5000 members. The remaining 35 000 people
in the town were not members of either club.
Research shows that at the end of each month people switched their membership category
as shown in the following table:
to

No club AHC GLC

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No club 98% 1% 1%
from AHC 5% 90% 5%
GLC 8% 2% 90%

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(a) After one month the number of people who were not members of either club was
35 200.

P
Calculate the number of members that each club would have had at that time.

M
(3 marks)

(b) (i) Evaluate the following matrix product:

A
(35 000 10 000 5000)  0.98 0.01 0.01
 .
 0.05 0.90 0.05 
 0.08 0.02 0.90 
 

S
(ii) Explain why the matrix product gives the same result as in part (a).
(2 marks)

(2 marks)
34
 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(c) (i) The following matrix product gives the number of people in each category after
two months:

2
(35 000 10 000 5000)  0.98 0.01 0.01
 
 0.05 0.90 0.05  .
 0.08 0.02 0.90 
 

Determine the number of members that the Get-a-Life Club would have had at

E
that time.

(ii)

PL
The following matrix product also gives the number of people in each category after
two months:

(35 200 9450 5350)  0.98 0.01 0.01

 
(2 marks)

M
 0.05 0.90 0.05  .
 0.08 0.02 0.90 
 

Explain why this matrix product gives the same information as the matrix product in
part (i).

SA (2 marks)

35 PLEASE TURN OVER

This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used.

(iii) Hence give a matrix expression for the number of people in each category
after k months.

(1 mark)

E
(iv) Hence calculate the number of people in each category after eight months.
Assume there has been no change in either the rates at which people switch
their membership category or the total population size.

PL (2 marks)

AM
S © Senior Secondary Assessment Board of South Australia 2003

36
 This 2003 sample Mathematical Methods paper shows the structure of the examination and the style of questions
that may be used

LIST OF MATHEMATICAL FORMULAE FOR USE IN

STAGE 2 MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Standardised Normal Distribution Binomial Probability

A measurement scale X is transformed into a standard P ( X = k ) = C kn p k (1 − p ) n − k
scale Z, using the formula where p is the probability of a success in one trial and
X −µ the possible values of X are k = 0,1, . . . n and
Z= .
σ
n! n(n − 1) . . . (n − k + 1)
where µ is the population mean and σ is the standard C kn = = .
(n − k )! k! k!
deviation for the population distribution.

Confidence Interval — Mean Binomial Mean and Standard Deviation

A 95% confidence interval for the mean µ of a The mean and standard deviation of a binomial count X
normal population with standard deviation σ, based and a proportion of successes pˆ =
X
are
on a simple random sample of size n with sample n
mean x , is µ X = np µ ( p)
ˆ = p
σ σ
x − 1.96 ≤ µ ≤ x + 1.96 . p (1 − p )
n n σ X = np(1 − p ) σ ( pˆ ) =
n
For suitably large samples, an approximate 95% where p is the probability of a success in one trial.
confidence interval can be obtained by using the
sample standard deviation s in place of σ.
Derivatives
dy
Sample Size — Mean f ( x) = y f ′( x) =
dx
The sample size n required to obtain a 95%
confidence interval of width w for the mean of a xn nx n −1
normal population with standard deviation σ is e kx ke kx
2 ln x = log e x 1
 2 × 1.96σ  x
n=  .
 w 

Properties of Derivatives
Confidence Interval — Population Proportion d
An approximate 95% confidence interval for the { f ( x) + g ( x)} = f ′( x) + g ′( x)
dx
population proportion p, based on a large simple d
random sample of size n with sample proportion { f ( x) − g ( x)} = f ′( x) − g ′( x)
dx
X
pˆ = , is d
n {k f ( x)} = k f ′( x)
dx
pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ ) d
pˆ − 1.96 ≤ p ≤ pˆ + 1.96 . { f ( x) g ( x )} = f ′ ( x) g ( x) + f ( x) g ′ ( x)
n n dx
d
f ( g ( x)) = f ′( g ( x)) g ′( x)
dx
Sample Size — Proportion
The sample size n required to obtain an approximate
95% confidence interval of approximate width w for a Laws of Logarithms
proportion is
log A + log B = log AB
2
 2 × 1.96  ∗ A
n=  p (1 − p∗). log A − log B = log
 w  B
( p ∗ is a given preliminary value for the proportion) log A n = n log A

37