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Program Evaluation Review Technique: Self-Learning
Program Evaluation Review Technique: Self-Learning
Program Evaluation Review Technique: Self-Learning
Optimistic time, to
Probable longest
-is the estimated duration
minimum time that an Most likely time or
activity will take. probabilistic time,
tm Pessimistic time,
Probable shortest tp
duration
-is the estimated
normal length of time -is the estimated
an activity takes. maximum time that
will be required under
worst conditions.
Normal duration
Immediate
Activity predecessor(s to tm tp te 2
)
Draw the network diagram. A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6
5
C A 4 7 12 7.33
D B 4 8 10 7.67
E C 5 10 16 10.17
F D,E 3 4 5 4
G D,E 3 6 8 5.83
H F 4 6 10 6.33
=6
Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6
5
completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
7.33
7.67
E C 5 10 16 10.17
F D,E 3 4 5 4
G D,E 3 6 8 5.83
H F 4 6 10 6.33
=6
Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6
5
1
0.44
completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
7.33
7.67
1.78
1
E C 5 10 16 10.17 3.36
F D,E 3 4 5 4 0.11
G D,E 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
H F 4 6 10 6.33 1
Example: Activity A
=1
Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6
5
1
0.44
completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
7.33
7.67
1.78
1
E C 5 10 16 10.17 3.36
F D,E 3 4 5 4 0.11
G D,E 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
H F 4 6 10 6.33 1
completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
7.33
7.67
1.78
1
E C 5 10 16 10.17 3.36
F D,E 3 4 5 4 0.11
G D,E 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
H F 4 6 10 6.33 1
3. Draw the network diagram and I
J
G
H, I
5
3
8
3
11
3
8
3
1
0
indicate the te and 2 of each activity:
3 6
B 4 7.6 D F 1
.1 6.3 H
4
, 0. 7,
1 4,
0 3,
1
A 5 J
1 2 5 8 9
6,1 3, 0
7.3 C E
3 . 36 5.8 G I
3, 1
.7 8 0 . 17, 3, 0
.69 8, 1
4 1 7
Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (38 weeks) Probability
(weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25
4. Identify all the paths
and solve for te and 2 of A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83
each path:
3 6
B 4 7.6 D F 1
.1 6.3 H
4
, 0. 7,
1 4,
0 3,
1
A 5 J
1 2 5 8 9
6,1 3, 0
7.3 C E
3 . 36 5.8 G I
3, 1
.7 8 0 . 17, 3, 0
.69 8, 1
4 1 7
Example: Path A-B-D-F-H-J
te = 6+5+7.67+4+6.33+3 = 32 weeks
2 = 1+0.44+1+0.11+1+0 = 3.55
PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
Steps in solving the weeks)
(weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43
• Solve for z and
5.
A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83
standard deviation () of
each path.
0 +z
Shaded area shown is the probability if z = +0.83 and is equal to 0.7967 as per the
Table for Normal Distribution.
To get the probability of z = -0.83, subtract the probability of +0.83 from 1.
That is, P = 0.2033 for z = -0.83
+0.5 +0.83 +z
Example. What is the probability of z = -0.4. Answer P =0.3446.
Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
(weeks) weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18 0.999+
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23 0.8907
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43 0.6664
Is it because 20.33% is the A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83 0.2033
smallest value? Or because it
is the critical path? The
answer will be explained Given the table above, determine:
later. a. The probability of completing the project in 38 weeks or
less.
2
A C
1 4
B D
3
c. The due date for the project is set so that there is a 90% chance that
the project will be finished by this date. What is the date?
Do not proceed to the next slide until you finish answering this exercise.
Specified time− Expected time
Solution. z=
σ 𝑝𝑎𝑡h
•a. = 2.0
P = 97.72%
b. = -0.4
P = 34.46%