2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

Lab # 6
Problem # 4

Objective:
For the data given in Table, identify a suitable decline model, determine model parameters, and
project production rate till the end of the 5th year.

Data:

Time Flowrate ‘q’ Time Flowrate ‘q’

(Year) (MMMscf/D) (Year) (MMMscf/D)
0.2 9.29 2.1 5.56
0.3 8.98 2.2 5.45
0.4 8.68 2.3 5.34
0.5 8.4 2.4 5.23
0.6 8.14 2.5 5.13
0.7 7.9 2.6 5.03
0.8 7.67 2.7 4.94
0.9 7.45 2.8 4.84
1 7.25 2.9 4.76
1.1 7.05 3 4.67
1.2 6.87 3.1 4.59
1.3 6.69 3.2 4.51
1.4 6.53 3.3 4.44
1.5 6.37 3.4 4.36
1.6 6.22 3.5 4.29
1.7 6.08 3.6 4.22
1.8 5.94 3.7 4.16
1.9 5.81 3.8 4.09

2 5.68 3.9 4.03

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Time Flowrate qt
(year) (MMMscf/day) Δt Δq Δq/qΔt 1/qt
0.2 9.29 0.1 0 0 0.10764
0.3 8.98 0.1 -0.31 0.34521 0.11136
0.4 8.68 0.1 -0.3 0.34562 0.11521
0.5 8.4 0.1 -0.28 0.33333 0.11905
0.6 8.14 0.1 -0.26 0.31941 0.12285
0.7 7.9 0.1 -0.24 0.3038 0.12658
0.8 7.67 0.1 -0.23 0.29987 0.13038
0.9 7.45 0.1 -0.22 0.2953 0.13423
1 7.25 0.1 -0.2 0.27586 0.13793
1.1 7.05 0.1 -0.2 0.28369 0.14184
1.2 6.87 0.1 -0.18 0.26201 0.14556
1.3 6.69 0.1 -0.18 0.26906 0.14948
1.4 6.53 0.1 -0.16 0.24502 0.15314
1.5 6.37 0.1 -0.16 0.25118 0.15699
1.6 6.22 0.1 -0.15 0.24116 0.16077
1.7 6.08 0.1 -0.14 0.23026 0.16447
1.8 5.94 0.1 -0.14 0.23569 0.16835
1.9 5.81 0.1 -0.13 0.22375 0.17212
2 5.68 0.1 -0.13 0.22887 0.17606
2.1 5.56 0.1 -0.12 0.21583 0.17986
2.2 5.45 0.1 -0.11 0.20183 0.18349
2.3 5.34 0.1 -0.11 0.20599 0.18727
2.4 5.23 0.1 -0.11 0.21033 0.1912
2.5 5.13 0.1 -0.1 0.19493 0.19493
2.6 5.03 0.1 -0.1 0.19881 0.19881
2.7 4.94 0.1 -0.09 0.18219 0.20243
2.8 4.84 0.1 -0.1 0.20661 0.20661
2.9 4.76 0.1 -0.08 0.16807 0.21008
3 4.67 0.1 -0.09 0.19272 0.21413
3.1 4.59 0.1 -0.08 0.17429 0.21786
3.2 4.51 0.1 -0.08 0.17738 0.22173
3.3 4.44 0.1 -0.07 0.15766 0.22523
3.4 4.36 0.1 -0.08 0.18349 0.22936
3.5 4.29 0.1 -0.07 0.16317 0.2331
3.6 4.22 0.1 -0.07 0.16588 0.23697
3.7 4.16 0.1 -0.06 0.14423 0.24038
3.8 4.09 0.1 -0.07 0.17115 0.2445
3.9 4.03 -3.9 -0.06 -0.0038 0.24814

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Graphical Representation:

Q VS T
10
9
8
7
RATE (MMMSCF)

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
TIME (YEAR)

Q VS T
10
FLOW RATE (MMMSCF)

3.9, 4.03

1
0.1 1 10
TIME (YEAR)

Discussion:
For determining the specific decline model, straight line is necessary. So, in our data, it is not
giving straight line on any scale, we will shift to another method to determine the decline model.

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2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

-∆q/q*∆t
0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25
-∆q/q*∆t

0.2

0.15 4.03, 0.148883375

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
q

1/qt vs t
0.3

0.25 y = 0.038x + 0.1

0.2
1/qt

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Time

Discussion:
Graph has been plotted between -∆q/q*∆t vs q which is giving us the straight line and shows that
the data is related to harmonic decline model.

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2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

Decline Rate:
1 1 𝐷𝑖
= + ( )𝑡
𝑞𝑡 𝑞𝑖 𝑞𝑖

Considering the above linear equation, the straight line is obtained between 1/qt/t. The decline rate
can be determined by using the slope and intercept of straight line.
1
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡 = = 0.1
𝑞𝑖
𝒒𝒊 = 𝟏𝟎 𝑴𝑴𝑴𝒔𝒄𝒇/𝑫𝒂𝒚
𝐷𝑖
𝑆𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒 = = 0.038
𝑞𝑖
𝑫𝒊 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟖/𝑫𝒂𝒚

Project production rate till the end of the 5th year:

The production rate at any time can be determined by using following formula.
𝑞𝑖
𝑞𝑡 = 1⁄
(1 + 𝑏𝐷𝑖 𝑡) 𝑏

𝑞𝑖 = 10 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑠𝑐𝑓, 𝑏 = 1, 𝐷𝑖 = 0.38/𝐷𝑎𝑦
10
𝑞𝑡 =
(1 + 0.38 × 5)
𝒒𝒕 = 𝟑. 𝟒𝟓 𝑴𝑴𝑴𝒔𝒄𝒇/𝑫𝒂𝒚

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2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

Problem # 5
Objective:
Estimate the future production performance for the next 16 years.

Data:
Time Flowrate qt Gp
(years) (MMscf/day) (MMscf)
0 10 0
0.5 8.4 1.67
1 7.12 3.08
1.5 6.16 4.3
2 5.36 5.35
2.5 4.72 6.27
3 4.18 7.08
3.5 3.72 7.78
4 3.36 8.44

Time Flowrate qt Gp
(years) (MMscf/day) (MMscf) Δq Δt Δq/qΔt

0 10 0 0 0 0

0.5 8.4 1.67 -1.6 0.5 0.38095

1 7.12 3.08 -1.28 0.5 0.35955

1.5 6.16 4.3 -0.96 0.5 0.31169

2 5.36 5.35 -0.8 0.5 0.29851

2.5 4.72 6.27 -0.64 0.5 0.27119

3 4.18 7.08 -0.54 0.5 0.25837

3.5 3.72 7.78 -0.46 0.5 0.24731

4 3.36 8.44 -0.36 0.5 0.21429

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2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

qt vs t
12

10
qt (MMscf/Day)

4
4, 3.36
2

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Time (Year)

Discussion:
Graphs were drawn between flowrate and time on cartesian, semi-log and log-log scale. To identify
model, straight line is necessary but here no model which is giving straight line. So, we will use
hyperbolic method because it is not giving straight line on any scale.

Now, we will estimate the initial flow rate (qi) by extending the smooth curve to intercept with the
y-axis (at t = 0) to give qi = 10 MMscf/day.

Now, we will determine the coordinate of the middle point on the smooth curve that corresponds
to (t1, q1) with the value of q1, as obtained from the following expression:

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2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

𝑞1 = √𝑞𝑖 𝑞2

𝑞1 = √10 × 3.36
𝒒𝟏 = 𝟓. 𝟖
By using two-point form.
𝑦 − 𝑦1 𝑥 − 𝑥1
=
𝑦2 − 𝑦1 𝑥2 − 𝑥1
5.8 − 6.16 𝑥 − 1.5
=
5.36 − 6.16 2 − 1.5
𝑥 = 1.725
(𝑡1 , 𝑞1 ) = (1.725,5.8)

k bk f (bk) f (bk)' bk + 1

0 0.500000000 0.004975409 -0.375201268 0.51326064

1 0.513260641 -0.000174475 -0.401604662 0.5128262

2 0.512826196 -1.8976E-07 -0.400731183 0.51282572

3 0.512825722 -2.25153E-13 -0.400730232 0.51282572

The value of b obtained by the iterative process is 0.512826.

Here Di is calculated by following formula:

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2017-PET-3 May 6, 2021

𝑞
( 𝑖⁄𝑞2 )𝑏 − 1
𝐷𝑖 =
𝑏𝑡2
(10⁄3.36)0.512826 − 1
𝐷𝑖 =
0.512826 ∗ 4
𝑫𝒊 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟔𝟓𝟑𝟔𝟏/𝑫𝒂𝒚

Production rate at 16th month:

𝑞𝑖
𝑞𝑡 = 1⁄
(1 + 𝑏𝐷𝑖 𝑡) 𝑏

10
𝑞𝑡 = 1⁄
(1 + 0.512826 × 0.365361 × 16) 0.512826

𝒕 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕𝟎𝟓 𝑴𝑴𝒔𝒄𝒇/𝒅𝒂𝒚

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