Inflation Update

April 2021

March 2021 Inflation Update: Foodstuff Price Shock

In March, the headline inflation eased further to 0.08% mom,

following a 0.10% rise in the previous month. The actual number was
lower than the market estimate of 0.12% mom, and put the annual
inflation rate stable to 1.37% yoy. The annual inflation was the lowest
since August 2020. The core component posted a monthly deflation
of -0.03% (+1.2% yoy), and the price also lower for the administered
part to 0.02% mom (+0.9% yoy). By contrast, the price for the volatile
component was surging to 0.56% mom (+2.5% yoy).
Low pressure highlights the softer rise of most CPI components. Only
the food, beverage, and tobacco component (+0.40% mom) had
accelerated on a monthly change. Five parts booked slower increase,
namely the clothing component (+0.02% mom), the household
equipment component (+0.10% mom), the health component
(+0.08% mom), the recreation, sports, and culture component
(+0.05% mom), and the food and beverage provision component
(+0.17% mom). Three components had a deflation, including the
transportation component (-0.25% mom), the information and
communication component (-0.03% mom), and the personal care
component (-0.39% mom). The housing component (+0.04% mom)
and the education component (+0.01% mom) were stable.
The main drivers of March inflation were attributed to the soaring
price of foodstuff components and deflation in transportation and
personal care component. In more detail, the tight supply of chilis
and onion commodities due to heavy rainfall and plant disease
contributed to a rise in food staples price. On the other side, the price
of the transportation component fell due to the exemption of luxury
goods tax for cars. In the case of personal care components, the
declining cost of gold is still dragging the monthly change. Slump gold
price underpinned by hopes that a successful vaccination work would
trigger a broad economic recovery. In the near term, fiscal and
monetary stimulus spillover, widespread vaccination program, and
an approaching Ramadan and Idul Fitri suggest a prospect of upward
consumer demand and a moderate hike in the inflation pressure.
 Non-Food Inflation (% YoY)
% YoY inflation rate
Food Inflation (% YoY)

` MoM YoY YTD

Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 2020 2021
Food, Beverage and Tobacco 0.81 0.07 0.40 2.81 1.92 2.22 2.69 1.30
Clothing and Footwear 0.11 0.06 0.02 1.00 0.84 0.73 0.46 0.19
Housing, Water, Electricity, Other Fuel 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.25 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.11
Household Equipment 0.15 0.36 0.10 1.10 1.40 1.23 0.42 0.61
Health 0.19 0.19 0.08 2.55 2.40 2.28 0.97 0.46
Transportation (0.30) 0.30 (0.25) (0.26) 0.41 0.59 (1.67) (0.25)
Information, Comm & Financial Service 0.04 (0.03) (0.03) (0.35) (0.37) (0.31) (0.06) (0.02)
Recreation, Sports, and Culture 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.60 0.59 0.62 0.26 0.15
Education 0.04 0.00 0.01 1.57 1.56 1.56 (0.11) 0.05
Food and Beverage Prov/Restaurant 0.33 0.28 0.17 2.41 2.52 2.32 0.72 0.78
Personal Care and Other Services 0.23 (0.14) (0.39) 5.55 4.97 3.53 1.88 (0.30)
Headline Inflation 0.26 0.10 0.08 1.55 1.38 1.37 0.76 0.44

Food 0.69 0.13 0.34 2.71 2.07 2.25 2.18 1.16

Non-Food 0.01 0.10 (0.06) 0.95 1.01 0.90 0.04 0.05
Source : BPS

Contribution
Component Change (%) Main Drivers (%)

Food, Beverage and Tobacco 0.40 Chilis, onion, chicken meat, garlic, rice 0.10

Clothing and Footwear 0.02 Apparel, footwear 0.00

Housing, Water, Electricity, Other Fuel 0.04 House lease and rent 0.01
Household Equipment 0.10 Housemaid wage 0.01
Health 0.08 Inpatient services 0.00
Transportation (0.25) Car (0.03)
Information, Comm & Financial Service (0.03) Information and communication services, insurance 0.00
Recreation, Sports, and Culture 0.05 Recreation and sports goods 0.00
Education 0.01 Other education cost 0.00
Food and Beverage Prov/Restaurant 0.17 Food and beverage services 0.01
Personal Care and Other Services (0.39) Gold and jewelry (0.02)

General 0.08
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