Ri

skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

For
emostWewoul
dli
ket
hankst
oGodf
orGui
dancei
nourper
for
mance
andt
oal
lofourgr
oupmember
sincl
udedi
nthi
spr
ojectwor
kaswel
las
someonewhohel
pedusonourwor
ktoper
for
minsuchwel
l.

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage1
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019

ABSTRACT

Under
standi
ngr
iskandhowi
tisper
cei
vedi
sacr
uci
alst
ept
owar
d
cr
eat
ingpr
ogr
amsandcampai
gnst
orai
seawar
enessandmake
communi
ti
esandwor
kpl
acessaf
er.Thi
sCampbel
lInst
it
utel
it
erat
ure
r
evi
ewl
ooksatt
hecur
rentst
ateofr
esear
chi
nthear
eaofr
iskt
aki
ngand

expl
orest
her
easonswhyi
ndi
vi
dual
staker
isksi
nsi
deandout
sidet
he
wor
kpl
ace.

I
nshor
t,r
iskper
cept
ion,
ort
heabi
li
tyt
odi
scer
nri
sk,
ist
iedt
ori
sk
t
oler
ance,
orani
ndi
vi
dual
’
scapaci
tyt
oacceptacer
tai
namountofr
isk.
Resear
chsuggest
sthatpr
ogr
ams.

Todi
scour
ager
isk-
taki
ngbehav
iorneedt
oaddr
essbot
hoft
hese
concept
s Thi
spapersummar
izest
hei
ndi
vi
dual
,communi
tyand
br
oadersoci
qlf
act
orst
hataf
fectr
iskper
cept
ionandt
oler
ance.I
tthen
del
vesi
ntoapr
esent
ati
onofsev
eralt
heor
iesexpl
aini
ngper
cept
ion,
i
ncl
udi
ngt
heor
iesr
elat
edt
opr
otect
ionmot
ivat
ion,
habi
tuat
edact
ion,

i
i

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage2
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019

ar
ehi
ghl
ight
edt
hroughoutt
hepaper
.

Ov
eral
l,
thei
deapr
esent
edi
sthatoccupat
ional
andnon-
occupat
ional
risk
t
aki
ngar
erel
ated.

Thef
act
orsandt
heor
iesofr
iskper
cept
ionar
eappl
icabl
etoanumberof
on-andof
f-t
he-
jobbehav
ior
s.Knowi
nghowandwhyi
ndi
vi
dual
sengagei
n
r
iskybehav
iorcoul
dai
dsi
gni
fi
cant
ly

I
ncr
eat
ingmessagi
ngandpr
ogr
amst
omakecommuni
ti
esand
wor
kpl
acessaf
er.

i
ii

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage3
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
1)I
ntr
oduct
iont
ori
skanal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion

Dur
ingt
hel
astcent
ury
,att
het
opofi
ndust
ri
ali
zat
ionphase,
theexcessi
veuseof
i
ncr
easi
ngl
ymor
ecompl
exi
nor
gani
candor
gani
cchemi
cal
shascausedser
ious
env
ironment
alcont
ami
nat
ional
lov
ert
hewor
ldwi
thacut
eandchr
oni
cef
fect
son
popul
ati
onheal
th.
Thesi
tesconsi
der
edt
obev
erycont
ami
nat
edandcl
assi
fi
edas
danger
ousar
ever
ynumer
ousandof
tenbel
ongt
oindust
ri
alcent
res;
int
hepasty
ear
s,
t
hecont
ami
nat
ionofsoi
landt
hei
rcont
ri
but
iont
oai
rpol
l
uti
onhav
ehadani
mpor
tant
r
ole.
Incount
ri
eschar
act
eri
zedbyahi
ghsoci
o-economi
cst
atus,
thei
ndust
ri
ali
mpacton
ai
rpol
l
uti
oni
scer
tai
nlyl
esst
hant
hewei
ghtoft
raf
fi
candur
banheat
ing,
whi
l
eint
he
dev
elopi
ngandemer
gingcount
ri
es,
indust
ri
ali
zat
ionhasst
il
lani
mpor
tantand
unr
esol
vedr
olebecauseoft
hel
ackofl
egi
slat
ivemanagementandcont
rol
.

Oneoft
het
asksoft
heenv
ironment
alengi
neeri
stounder
standandr
educet
her
isks
Fr
om hazar
dsf
rom env
ironment
alpol
l
uti
ont
otheenv
ironmentandt
opubl
i
cheal
thi
n
Bot
hlongandshor
tter
m.I
npar
ti
cul
art
heenv
ironment
alengi
neerf
requent
lyi
sasked
Toest
imat
eorpr
ojectf
utur
eri
sks,
thent
ousesci
ence,
engi
neer
ing,
andt
echnol
ogy
Todesi
gnf
aci
l
iti
esandorpr
ocessest
opr
eventormi
ti
gat
ethoser
isks.Toaccompl
i
sh
Thi
sobj
ect
ivet
her
isksassoci
atedwi
thv
ari
oushazar
dsmusti
nit
ial
l
ybeev
aluat
edand
Ri
skanal
ysi
sisi
ntr
oducedher
easat
ool
oft
heenv
ironment
alengi
neert
hatcr
osses
Theboundar
iesofsci
ence,
engi
neer
ing,
andr
iskanal
ysi
s.Thi
schapt
eri
snota
compr
ehensi
ve
Tr
eat
iseonr
iskanal
ysi
s;r
ather
,iti
ncl
udest
hoseel
ement
sofr
iskanal
ysi
s
Thatanenv
ironment
alengi
neermosti
mpor
tant
lymustunder
standanduse.
Quant
if
ied.
Theenv
ironment
alengi
neert
hushasonemor
etaskt
oface:
det
ermi
net
hecompar
ati
ve
r
isksf
rom v
ari
ousenv
ironment
alpol
l
utant
sand,
fur
ther
,whi
chr
isk(
s)i
sitmost
i
mpor
tantt
odecr
easeorel
i
minat
e

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage4
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019

Adv
erseef
fect
sonhumanheal
thar
eof
tendi
ff
icul
ttoi
dent
if
yandt
odet
ermi
ne.
Ev
enwhenanadv
erseef
fectonheal
thhasbeeni
dent
if
ied,
iti
sst
il
ldi
ff
icul
ttor
ecogni
ze
Thosecomponent
soft
hei
ndi
vi
dual
'
senv
ironmentassoci
atedwi
tht
headv
erseef
fect
.
Ri
skanal
yst
sref
ert
ot sasr
hesecomponent iskf
act
ors.
I
ngener
alar
iskf
act
orshoul
dmeett
hef
oll
owi
ngcondi
ti
ons:
 Exposur
etot
her
iskf
act
orpr
ecedesappear
anceoft
headv
erseef
fect
.
 Ther
iskf
act
orandt
headv
erseef
fectar
econsi
stent
lyassoci
ated.Thati
s,t
he
Adv
erseef
fecti
snotusual
l
yobser
vedi
ntheabsenceoft
her
iskf
act
oThemor
e
oft
her
isk f
act
ort
her
eis,
ort
hegr
eat
eri
tsi
ntensi
ty,
thegr
eat
ert
he
 Theoccur
renceormagni
tudeoft
headv
erseef
fecti
sst
ati
sti
cal
l
ysi
gni
fi
cant
ly
Adv
erseef
fect
,al
thought
hef
unct
ional
rel
ati
onshi
pneednotbel
i
nearormonot
oni
c.
Gr
eat
eri
nthepr
esenceoft
her
iskf
act
ort
hani
nit
sabsence.
I
dent
if
icat
ionofar
iskf
act
orf
orapar
ti
cul
aradv
erseef
fectmaybedonewi
th
conf
idence
Onl
yift
her
elat
ionshi
pisconsonantwi
th,
anddoesnotcont
radi
ct,
exi
sti
ngknowl
edge
Oft
hecel
l
ularandor
gani
sm mechani
smspr
oduci
ngt
headv
erseef
fect
.
I
dent
if
icat
ionoft
her
iskf
act
ori
smor
edi
ff
icul
tthani
dent
if
icat
ionofanadv
erse
Ef
fect
.Forexampl
e,wear
enowf
air
lycer
tai
nthatci
gar
ett
esmokei
sunheal
thy
,bot
h
Tot
hesmoker(
pri
mar
ysmoker
isk)andt
othosear
oundt
hesmoker(
secondar
ysmoke
Ri
sk)
.Speci
fi
cal
l
y,l
ungcancer
,chr
oni
cobst
ruct
ivepul
monar
ydi
sease,
andhear
t
di
sease
Occurmuchmor
efr
equent
lyamonghabi
tual
smoker
sthanamongnonsmoker
sor
Ev
eni
nthewhol
epopul
ati
oni
ncl
udi
ngsmoker
s.I
nthei
nter
estofsi
mpl
i
fyi
ngt
he
pr
obl
em,
Wear
edef
ini
ng"
habi
tual
"smoki
ngast
wopacksormor
eperday
.Thei
ncr
eased
Fr
equencyofoccur
renceoft
hesedi
seasesi
sst
ati
sti
cal
l
ysi
gni
fi
cant
?Ci
gar
ett
esmoke
I
sthusar
iskf
act
orf
ort
hesedi
seases;
smoker
sandpeopl
eexposedt
osecondhand
Smokear
eati
ncr
easedr
isk.
2

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage5
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
.

1.
1)Ri
skAnal
ysi
s
Whenact
orsi
ncapi
tal
mar
ket
s,banksandi
nsur
ersanal
yset
hef
inanci
ali
mpact
sof
cl
i
mat
echangeandot
herenv
ironment
alr
isks,
twot
ypesofappr
oachesneedt
obe
combi
ned

Env
ironment
alf
act
ors:
Afi
rstst
epi
sseeki
ngt
ounder
standhowenv
ironment
alf
act
ors
mayposer
iskst
ofi
nanci
alasset
s,andhowsuchr
isksmayev
olv
eov
ert
ime.Such
f
act
orsmayi
ncl
udet
hedi
rectr
iskssuchasphy
sical
impact
sofcl
i
mat
echanget
oreal
economyasset
s,ori
ndi
rectr
isksposedbypol
i
cyandmar
ketr
esponsest
o
env
ironment
alf
act
ors.Not
abl
eint
hisr
espectar
etr
ansi
ti
onscenar
ios,
whi
chsi
mul
ate
howat
ransi
ti
ont
oal
ow-
car
boneconomycoul
dpl
ayoutacr
ossdi
ff
erentsect
orsand
count
ri
es.
15I
ffi
rmsar
eunpr
epar
edf
orei
thert
hephy
sical
impact
sorf
ort
hel
ow-
car
bont
ransi
ti
on,
theycanbef
acedwi
thcr
edi
t,mar
ket
,busi
nessandl
egal
risks.

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage6
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
Fi
nanci
alr
iskanal
ysi
stool
s:Env
ironment
alf
act
orshav
etobet
ransl
atedi
nto
quant
it
ati
vemeasur
esoff
inanci
alr
iskt
hatcan,
int
urn,
inf
ormr
iskmanagement
i
nst
ance,
ani
nvest
ormaynotf
indi
tver
yusef
ult
omer
elyknowt
hatanar
eawher
e
asseti
slocat
edi
sli
kel
ytosuf
ferf
rom dr
ought
s.Butoncet
hisi
sexpr
essedast
he
pot
ent
ial
impactont
hev
aluat
ionsofagr
icul
tur
alpr
oducer
sandwat
er-
usi
ngel
ect
ri
cit
y
gener
ati
onpl
ant
sint
hatr
egi
on,
thei
nvest
orcant
akei
tint
oaccounti
nthei
rcapi
tal
al
l
ocat
iondeci
sions.Thef
oll
owi
ngsect
ionpr
ovi
desanov
erv
iewoft
heset
ypesof
f
inanci
alr
iskt
ool
sandmet
ri
cs.

2)PROBABI
LITY
Ext
ensi
vedi
scussi
onofpr
obabi
l
ityi
sbey
ondt
hescopeoft
hist
ext
,andt
her
eaderi
s
Encour
agedt
oconsul
tast
ati
sti
cst
ext
.Somebasi
cconsi
der
ati
onsar
einor
der
,
howev
er.

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage7
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
Pr
obabi
l
ityi
sof
tenconf
usedwi
thf
requency
,becausef
requenci
esar
eusedt
oest
imat
e
Pr
obabi
l
iti
esi
nri
skassessment
.Onesuchusei
stheest
imat
eoft
her
iskofbei
ngi
n
anAut
omobi
l
eacci
den.Wehav
eanexcel
l
enti
deaoft
hef
requencyi
nthe
Uni
tedSt
atesOfaut
omobi
l
eacci
dent
sofv
ary
ingsev
eri
ty,
andweuset
hesef
requenci
es
t
opr
edi
ctaut
omobi
l
edeat
hri
sks:
theconsequencei
sdeat
h,andt
hepr
obabi
l
ityi
sthe
f
requencyof
Fat
alcaracci
dent
s.Fr
equencypr
esent
samor
erel
i
abl
eest
imat
eof
pr
obabi
l
ityt
hanmost
Ot
herest
imat
es.Est
imat
esofpr
obabi
l
iti
eschang
3)pol
lut
ionRESPONSES
I
ndi
vi
dual
responsest
oapar
ti
cul
arpol
l
utantmaydi
ff
erwi
del
y;dose-
response
Rel
ati
onshi
psdi
ff
erf
rom onei
ndi
vi
dual
toanot
her
.Inpar
ti
cul
ar,
thr
eshol
dsmer
.
Thr
eshol
dval
uesi
napopul
ati
on,
howev
er,
gener
all
yfol
l
owaGaussi
andi
str
ibut
ion.
I
ndi
vi
dual
responsesandt
hreshol
dsal
sodependonage,
sex,
andgener
alst
ate
Ofphy
sical
andemot
ional
heal
th.Heal
thyy
oungadul
tsar
eont
hewhol
elesssensi
ti
ve
Topol
l
utant
sthanar
eel
der
lypeopl
e,t
hosewhoar
echr
oni
cal
l
yoracut
elyi
l
l,
Andchi
l
dren.Al
l
owabl
erel
easesofpol
l
utant
sar
e,i
ntheor
y,r
est
ri
ctedt
oamount
s
Thatensur
epr
otect
ionoft
heheal
thoft
heent
ir
epopul
ati
on,
incl
udi
ngi
tsmost
Sensi
ti
vemember
s.I
nmanycases,
howev
er,
suchpr
otect
ionwoul
dmeanzer
oeas
obser
vedf
requenci
eschanger
4)EXPRESSI
ONOFRI
SK
Mai
nty
pesoft
erms&expr
essi
onscov
eredar
e;-
√Nat
ureofhazar
dsi
dent
if
ied
√ Expr
essi
onofr
isk
√Qual
it
ati
veexpr
essi
onsl
ike
Quant
it
ati
veexpr
essi
ons
Expr
essi
onof“
demi
nimi
s”r
isk
Expr
essi
onofuncer
tai
nti
es
I
dent
if
icat
ionofmi
ssi
ngi
nfor
mat
io

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage8
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
Ov
eral
lconcl
usi
ons
Recommendat
ionsf
oract
ion1)Qual
it
ati
veexpr
essi
onsofr
isk Huge
v
ari
ety
oft
ypesandqual
if
ier
s
Pr
ovi
deonl
yar
elat
ivei
ndi
cat
ionofl
evelof
r
isk
Li
abl
etov
ari
abl
eint
erpr
etat
ion
Of
tendonotdi
sti
ngui
shbet
weendegr
eeof
ef
fectandi
tspr
obabi
li
ty
Tendencyt
oimpl
yori
nferr
iskmanagement
meani
ngr
e.accept
abi
li
tyofr
iskorneedf
oract
ione.
g.concer
n,saf
e,suf
fi
cient
ev
idence.
2)Quant
it
ati
veexpr
essi
onsofr
isk

Rar
e,especi
all
yinconcl
udi
ngsect
ionsofopi
nions
Rat
iosofef
fectl
evelt
oexposur
e(6opi
nions)
E.
g.mar
ginofsaf
ety
•Rat
iosofexposur
etoef
fectl
evel(
13opi
nions)
E.
g.PEC/
PNEC
Per
centofpopul
ati
onaf
fect
ed
Per
centofoccasi
onsorev
ent
saf
fect
ed
No.occur
rencesperuni
tti
me
I
nor
dert
ouser
isksi
ndet
ermi
ningpol
l
uti
onst
andar
ds,
asEPAdoes,
iti
snecessar
yto
Dev
elopquant
it
ati
veexpr
essi
onsf
orr
isk.Thequant
it
ati
veexpr
essi
onsr
efl
ectbot
hthe
Pr
opor
ti
onal
i
tyoft
her
iskf
act
ort
otheadv
erseef
fectandt
hest
ati
sti
cal
signi
fi
canceof
Theef
fect
.
Ri
ski
sdef
inedast
hepr
oductofpr
obabi
l
ityandconsequence,
andi
sexpr
essed
Ast
hepr
obabi
l
ityorf
requencyofoccur
renceofanundesi
rabl
eev
ent
.Forexampl
e,

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage9
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
I
f10%oft
hest
udent
sinacour
sewer
erandoml
ygi
venan“
F,”t
he“
ri
sk”ofget
ti
ng
“
F’i
s0.
1“F’
pert
otal
numberofgr
adesassi
gned.Thepr
obabi
l
ityi
s0.
1andt
he
Consequencei
s“E”Theuni
tsi
nwhi
chr
iski
sexpr
essedi
ncor
por
atebot
hthepr
obabi
l
ity
Andsomemeasur
eofconsequence.I
ndi
scussi
nghumanheal
thorenv
ironment
alr
isk
Theconsequencesar
eadv
erseheal
thef
fect
soradv
erseef
fect
sonsomespeci
esof
pl
ant
Orani
mal
.
5)RI
SKPERCEPTI
ON
5.1Def
ini
ngofRi
skandRi
skPer
cept
ion

√Ri
ski
sahi
ghl
yint
erdi
sci
pli
nar
yconceptandi
tsmeasur
ementdi
ff
ersacr
ossand
ev
enwi
thi
ndi
sci
pli
nes.Fori
nst
ance,
inaheal
thcont
ext
,ri
sk
canr
efert
othenumberoff
atal
it
ies,
whi
chcanbemeasur
edt
hrought
hepr
obabi
li
tyof
deat
h,expect
edl
if
e-y
ear
slost
,deat
hsperper
sonexposed,
ort
otaldeat
hs(
Fischhof
f,
2009,
p.943)
.Mor
egener
all
y,mostdef
ini
ti
onsofr
iskhav
eincommont
hatr
isk
compr
isest
wof
act
ors:(
1)t
hepr
obabi
li
tyofhar
m
and(
2)t
hemagni
tudeofhar
m,wher
ehar
mref
erst
othr
eat
stohumansandt
hings
t
heyv
alue(
Hohenemser
,Kat
es,
&Sl
ovi
c,1985)
.Int
hissense,
risksar
emeasur
eabl
e
andr
iskysi
tuat
ionsar
econdi
ti
onsi
nwhi
chout
comes(
i.
e.,
thehar
m)andpr
obbi
l
iti
es
ar
eknown.For
inst
ance,
onecanaccessr
iskofl
osi
ngi
nthecasi
no,
ther
iskofan
adv
erseev
entofaspeci
fi
ctr
eat
ment
,ort
her
iskofacar
acci
dentf
oragi
venpopul
ati
on.Ri
skysi
tuat
ionshav
etobedi
sti
ngui
shedf
rom
uncer
tai
nsi
tuat
ions.
t
hatar
econdi
ti
onsi
nwhi
chei
therbot
h,t
heoutcomesandpr
obabi
li
ti
es,
oratl
east
t
hepr
obabi
li
ti
esar
eunknown(
seeMeder
,LeLec,
&Osman,
2013)
.
Thi
sdi
sti
nct
iongoesbackt
oKni
ght(
1921)who
def
ineduncer
tai
ntyasi
mmeasur
abl
eincont
rastt
o
measur
eabl
eri
sks.Howev
er,
mor
erecent
appr
oachesbr
oadent
hedef
ini
ti
onof
uncer
tai
ntyast
heyconsi
derpr
obabi
li
sti
cpar
amet
erssuchasst
an
7

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage10
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
dar
ddev
iat
ions,
exper
tconf
idencer
ati
ngs,
orr
angesas(
quant
if
iabl
e)i
ndi
cat
orsof
uncer
tai
nty
(
e.g.
,Pol
it
i,Han,
&Col
,2007)
.
Si
nce1983,
agr
eatdeal
hasbeenwr
it
tenaboutr
iskper
cept
ion,
andt
her
ehasbeen
Consi
der
abl
eresear
chandspecul
ati
onast
owhyr
isksar
eper
cei
vedv
ery
di
ff
erent
lyFr
om t
hei
rest
imat
es.Forexampl
e,t
her
isksat
tendantont
ranspor
ti
ng
r
adi
oact
ivewast
e
Ar
eper
cei
vedbysomepeopl
easf
argr
eat
ert
hant
her
isksat
tendantont
ranspor
ti
ng
Gasol
i
nei
ntankt
rucks,
wheni
nfactt
hel
att
erar
econsi
der
abl
ylar
ger
.Ther
eaderi
s
Ref
err
edt
othewor
ksofPaul
Slov
icandHankJenki
ns-
Smi
th,
li
stedi
nthebi
bli
ogr
aphy
,
Forsomedet
ail
eddi
scussi
onsofr
iskper
cept
ion.I
ngener
al,
thef
act
orst
hat
Appeart
oinf
luencer
iskper
cept
ionar
ethef
ami
l
iar
it
yoft
her
isk,
knowl
edgeaboutt
he
Ri
sk,
whet
hert
her
iski
sunder
taken(
orper
cei
vedasunder
taken)v
olunt
ari
l
y,andt
he
Est
imat
edandper
cei
vedbenef
it
soft
heact
ivi
tyt
hatof
fset
stheat
tendantr
isk.Whi
l
e
Engi
neer
sdeal
wit
hmi
ti
gat
ionofest
imat
edr
isks,
theymustof
tent
aker
iskper
cept
io
I
ntoaccount
.
6) RI
SKASSESSMENT
Ar
iskassessmenti
snotaboutcr
eat
inghugeamount
sofpaper
wor
k,butr
atherabout
i
dent
if
yingsensi
blemeasur
est
ocont
rol
ther
isksi
nyourwor
kpl
ace.Youar
epr
obabl
y
al
readyt
aki
ngst
epst
opr
otecty
ourempl
oyees,
buty
ourr
iskassessmentwi
llhel
pyou
deci
dewhet
hery
ouhav
ecov
eredal
lyouneedt
o.

Thi
nkabouthowacci
dent
sandi
llheal
thcoul
dhappenandconcent
rat
eonr
eal
risks–
t
hoset
hatar
emostl
ikel
yandwhi
chwi
llcauset
hemosthar
m.

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage11
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019

Forsomer
isks,
otherr
egul
ati
onsr
equi
repar
ti
cul
arcont
rolmeasur
es.You
assessmentcanhel
pyoui
dent
if
ywher
eyouneedt
olookatcer
tai
nri
sksandt
hese
par
ti
cul
arcont
rolmeasur
esi
nmor
edet
ail
.Thesecont
rolmeasur
esdonothav
etobe
assessedsepar
atel
ybutcanbeconsi
der
edaspar
tof
,oranext
ensi
onof
,yourov
eral
l
r
iskassessment
.

Oneoft
hemosti
mpor
tantaspect
sofy
ourr
iskassessmenti
saccur
atel
yident
if
ying
t
hepot
ent
ialhazar
dsi
nyourwor
kpl
ace.
Agoodst
art
ingpoi
nti
stowal
kar
oundy
ourwor
kpl
aceandt
hinkaboutany
hazar
ds.I
not
herwor
ds,
whati
sitaboutt
heact
ivi
ti
es,
processesorsubst
ancesused
t
hatcoul
dinj
urey
ourempl
oyeesorhar
mthei
rheal
th?

Wheny
ouwor
kinapl
aceev
erydayi
tiseasyt
oov
erl
ooksomehazar
ds,
soher
ear
e
somet
ipst
ohel
pyoui
dent
if
ytheonest
hatmat
ter
:
Checkmanuf
act
urer
s’i
nst
ruct
ionsordat
asheet
sforchemi
cal
sandequi
pmentas
t
heycanbev
eryhel
pfuli
nexpl
aini
ngt
hehazar
dsandput
ti
ngt
hem i
nthei
rtr
ue
per
spect
ive.
Lookbackaty
ouracci
dentandi
ll
-heal
thr
ecor
ds–t
heseof
tenhel
ptoi
dent
if
ythel
ess
obv
ioushazar
ds.

Takeaccountofnon-
rout
ineoper
ati
ons(
egmai
ntenance,
cleani
ngoper
ati
onsor
changesi
npr
oduct
ioncy
cles)
.
Remembert
othi
nkaboutl
ong-
ter
m hazar
dst
oheal
th(
eghi
ghl
evel
sofnoi
seor
exposur
etohar
mfulsubst
ances)
.

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage12
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
Vi
sitt
heHSEwebsi
te(
www.
hse.
gov
.uk)–HSEpubl
ishespr
act
icalgui
dance

onhazar
dsandhowt
ocont
rol
them.

Ther
ear
esomehazar
dswi
thar
ecogni
sedr
iskofhar
m,f
orexampl
ewor
kingat
hei
ght
,wor
kingwi
thchemi
cal
s,machi
ner
y,andasbest
os.Dependi
ngont
het
ype

ofwor
kyoudo,
ther
emaybeot
herr
iskst
hatar
erel
evantt
oyourbusi
ness
Regul
ati
onoft
oxi
corhazar
doussubst
ancesof
tenr
equi
resanassessmentofhazar
d
Orr
iskt
osomel
i
vingspeci
esot
hert
hanhomosapi
ens,
orassessmentofr
iskt
oan
Ent
ir
eecosy
stem.Met
hodsf
orecosy
stem r
iskassessmentar
enowbei
ngdev
elopedby
Sut
erandot
her
s(Sut
er1990)
.Ecosy
stem r
iskassessmenti
sdonei
nthesamegener
al
Wayashumanheal
thr
iskassessment
,exceptt
hati
dent
if
icat
ionoft
hespeci
esatr
isk
Andt
heexposur
epat
hwayi
saf
armor
ecompl
expr
ocesst
hani
nhumanheal
thr
isk
Assessment
.Assessmentendpoi
ntsar
eval
uesoft
heecosy
stem t
obepr
otect
edand
Ar
eident
if
iedear
lyi
ntheanal
ysi
s;t
heseendpoi
ntsmayi
ncl
udenumber
sofdi
ff
erent
Speci
es,
li
fe-
cycl
est
agesf
oragi
venspeci
es,
repr
oduct
ivepat
ter
ns,
orgr
owt
hpat
ter
ns.
I
dent
if
icat
ionofspeci
fi
cendpoi
ntsi
mpl
i
eschoi
cesamongpot
ent
ial
tar
getspeci
es.
Ecosy
stem r
iskassessmenti
sasy
eti
nit
sinf
ancy
,anddet
ail
sofi
tspr
act
icear
e
bey
ond
Thescopeoft
hist
ext
book.
Exampl
esr
evi
ewedconf
ir
mthatERApr
act
icei
sanev
olut
ionar
ypr
ocess,
whi
chmay
hav
ear
angeofi
mpact
sondeci
sion-
maki
ngandmar
ketbehav
iourasi
tssophi
sti
cat
ion
i
ncr
eases.At
hree-
steppr
ocesscanbei
dent
if
ied:
I
.Ri
skI
dent
if
icat
ion:
Str
ategi
crev
iewst
ounder
standhowenv
ironment
alf
act
orsmay
posephy
sical
andt
ransi
ti
onr
isks,
inv
olv
ingqual
i
tat
iveanal
ysi
swi
thnoquant
it
ati
ve
component
s.

10

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage13
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
I
I.Ri
skAssessment
:Basi
cest
imat
ionofexposur
etoenv
ironment
alr
iskst
hrough
f
inanci
alchannel
s.Act
ivi
ti
esatt
hisl
evel
inv
olv
ehi
gh-
lev
elt
ool
stopr
ovi
deagener
al
pi
ctur
eoft
hescal
eandscopeofr
isks,
oft
ent
hrought
heuseofr
epr
esent
ati
vepr
oxi
es
(
i.
e.Exposur
etocar
bonasset
s).Under
taki
ngdet
ail
edanal
ysi
stot
ransl
ate
env
ironment
alf
act
orsi
ntof
inanci
alr
iskst
oasset
sandpor
tfol
i
os,
incl
udi
ngt
hrought
he
appl
i
cat
ionofst
resst
est
ing,
scenar
ioanal
ysi
s,por
tfol
i
omodel
l
ing,
probabi
l
ist
ic
model
l
ingandot
hert
echni
ques.

I
II
.Ri
skManagement
:Var
iousact
ivi
ti
est
oreducer
iskexposur
e,mi
ti
gat
eri
sks,
transf
er
r
isks,
orsuppor
tri
skr
educt
ion.
I
nter
msofr
iskmanagement
,fi
nanci
ali
nst
it
uti
onsmayr
espondt
other
esul
tsofr
isk
anal
ysi
sindi
ff
erentway
s.Somei
nst
it
uti
onsmayempl
oybasi
cri
skmanagement
ef
for
tst
oaddr
essnear
-t
erm pr
udent
ial
risks.Ot
her
sar
echoosi
ngamor
est
rat
egi
c
r
esponse,
hel
pingt
oreduceov
eral
lsy
stemi
cri
sksbysuppor
ti
nganor
der
lymar
ket
t
ransi
ti
ont
oal
owercar
bon,
env
ironment
all
ysust
ainabl
eeconomy
.Ther
angeof
act
ionst
akenatt
heset
wol
evel
sisdescr
ibedf
urt
herbel
ow:
1)Addr
essi
ngnear
-t
erm pr
udent
ial
risksatf
ir
m-l
evel

Anal
ysi
sofnear
-t
ermf
inanci
ali
mpact
satani
ndi
vi
dual
fir
mlev
elt
hroughmor
e
sophi
sti
cat
edERAt
echni
ques;

Embeddi
ngERApr
act
ices:
Seeki
ngt
omai
nst
ream ERApr
act
iceacr
ossal
lact
ivi
ti
es;
and
Enhanci
ngEnv
ironment
alRi
skAssessmenti
nFi
nanci
alDeci
sion-
maki
ng
Rev
isi
ngr
iskmanagementgov
ernance,
i.
e.Amendi
ngcr
edi
tpol
i
cies,
int
roduci
ng
sect
orl
i
mit
s,r
educi
ngsy
stemi
cri
skst
othef
inanci
alsy
stem asawhol
e.

2)Reduci
ngov
eral
lsy
stemi
cri
skst
hroughsuppor
ti
nganor
der
lyt
ransi
ti
on

 Deepeni
ngunder
standi
ngofwi
dersy
stemi
cri
sksf
rom env
ironment
alf
act
ors,
andconsi
der
ingi
nst
it
uti
onal
responsi
bil
i
tiest
oaddr
esst
hese;

11

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage14
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
 Dev
elopi
ngast
rat
egi
cfr
amewor
kext
endi
ngbey
ondmanagi
ngnear
-
t
ermpr
udent
ial
riskst
oal
soi
ncl
udeact
ionst
osuppor
tanor
der
lymar
ket
t
ransi
ti
on;
Taki
ngact
iont
oimpl
ementt
hef
ramewor
kbey
ondpr
udent
ial
risk
f
unct
ions,
suchas:

 Pr
oductI
nnov
ati
on:
dev
elopmentof‘
green’
product
sandser
vices;

 Real
l
ocat
ingcapi
tal
,bot
hawayf
rom asset
sev
aluat
edashi
gh-
ri
sk
aswel
lasseeki
ngnewgr
eeni
nvest
mentoppor
tuni
ti
es;
and

 Engagi
ngwi
thst
akehol
der
s:engagi
ngwi
thcl
i
ent
s,i
nvest
ees,
mar
keti
nter
medi
ari
esandpol
i
cymaker
s,of
tenf
ormi
ngcol
l
abor
ati
ve
par
tner
shi
psaddr
esssy
stemi
cri
skst
hatf
all
out
sidei
mmedi
ate
pr
udent
ial
consi
der
ati
ons.

7.Concl
usi
onsandr
ecommendat
ions

Ri
ski
sdef
inedi
ntwodi
mensi
ons:t
heuncer
tai
ntydi
mensi
on(
assessedaspr
obabi
li
ty
ofoccur
rence)
,andt
he

ef
fectdi
mensi
on(
assessedasi
mpactonobj
ect
ives)
.Pr
operassessmentofr
isks
r
equi
resappr
opr
iat
eassessment

ofbot
hpr
obabi
li
tyandi
mpact
.Theef
fectonobj
ect
ivesi
srel
ati
vel
ysi
mpl
eto
est
imat
e,asi
tinv
olv
esasi
mpl
e

exer
cisei
nimagi
ningt
hesi
tuat
ionwher
ether
iskhappens.Assessi
ngpr
obabi
li
tyof
occur
rencei
slessst
rai
ght
for
war
d,f
ort
her
easonsout
li
nedabov
e

12

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage15
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
.Pr
operassessmentofr
iskpr
obabi
li
tyi
showev
ercr
it
icalt
othe
ef
fect
ivenessoft
her
iskpr
ocess,
fort
hef
oll
owi
ngr
easons:
•I
fri
skpr
obabi
li
tyassessmenti
sfaul
ty,
theaccur
acyofr
iskpr
ior
it
isat
ionwi
llbe
af
fect
ed,
leadi
ngt
oapot
ent
ial
fai
lur
etof
ocusont
hemostsi
gni
fi
cantr
isks.Thi
sin
t
urncoul
dleadt
osel
ect
ionofi
nappr
opr
iat
eresponses,
wit
hat
tent
ionbei
ngpai
dto
wr
ongl
y-pr
ior
it
isedr
isks.I
nappr
opr
iat
eresponsesel
ect
ionr
esul
tsi
nfai
lur
etomanage
r
isksef
fect
ivel
y,wi
tht
hepossi
bil
it
yofl
ossofconf
idencei
nther
iskpr
ocess.
•Conv
ersel
yifassessmentofr
iskpr
obabi
li
tyi
ssound,
thent
her
esul
ti
ng
under
standi
ngofeachassessedr
iskwi
llbemor
eaccur
ate,
suppor
ti
ngbet
ter
deci
sionsi
nter
msofr
esponsesel
ect
ionandr
iskmanagementst
rat
egy
.

•
Thei
mpr
ovementi
nri
skmanagementef
fect
ivenesst
hatf
oll
owswi
llenhancet
he
cr
edi
bil
it
yoft
her
iskpr
ocess,
andwi
llul
ti
mat
elyl
eadt
omor
erel
iabl
eachi
evementof
pr
ojectandbusi
nessobj
ect
ives.
•
Inor
dert
oensur
ethemostr
obustassessmentofr
iskpr
obabi
li
ty,
atwo-
par
tsol
uti
on
i
srecommended.Thef
ir
stpar
trequi
resawar
enessoft
hei
ssues,
incl
udi
ng
under
standi
ngt
hepr
obl
emsassoci
atedwi
thassessi
ngpr
obabi
li
ty,
theef
fectof
psy
chol
ogi
cali
nfl
uences,
thei
mpor
tanceofr
eli
abl
epr
obabi
li
tyassessment
,andt
he
v
ari
ousal
ter
nat
iveappr
oachesav
ail
abl
e.Thi
smustbeaccompani
edbyact
iont
o
addr
esst
heconcer
ns,
byi
dent
if
yingandmanagi
ngsour
cesofbi
as(
bot
hper
cept
ual
andheur
ist
ic)
,modi
fyi
ngpr
act
icebyusi
ngdi
ff
erentpr
obabi
li
tyassessment
t
echni
ques,
moni
tor
ingsubsequentpr
ojectandr
iskmanagementper
for
mancet
o

det
ermi
net
heaccur
acyofassessedr
iskpr
obabi
li
ty,
andl
ear
ningl
essonst
ofur
ther
i
mpr
ovet
heef
fect
ivenessofpr
ababl
it
yassesmentpr
ocess.
Thebestav
ail
abl
econt
rol
fornont
hreshol
dpol
l
utant
swi
l
lst
il
lent
ail
aresi
dual
risk.
Ouri
ndust
ri
alsoci
etyneedsaccur
atequant
it
ati
ver
iskassessmentt
oev
aluat
ethe
pr
otect
ion

13

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage16
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019
Af
for
dedbyv
ari
ousl
evel
sofpol
l
uti
oncont
rol
.Wemustal
sor
emai
nawar
ethat
Det
ermi
nat
ionofsaf
elev
elsofpol
l
utant
sbasedonr
iskanal
ysi
sisat
empor
ary
measur
e
Unt
ilt
hemechani
sm oft
hedamagedonebyt
hepol
l
utanti
sel
uci
dat
edandunder
stood.
Atpr
esent
,wecanonl
yident
if
yappar
entassoci
ati
onsbet
weenmostpol
l
utant
sanda
Gi
venheal
thef
fect
.
Weshoul
dnot
ethatanal
ysi
sofepi
demi
ologi
cal
dat
aanddet
ermi
nat
ionOfsi
gni
fi
cance
ofef
fect
srequi
reappl
i
cat
ionofat
estofst
ati
sti
cal
signi
fi
cance.
Ther
ear
eanumberofsucht
est
singener
aluse,
butt
hei
rappl
i
cat
ioni
snotcent
ral
to
Thescopeoft
hist
extandwi
l
lnotbeconsi
der
edher
e.
Al
mostal
lofourknowl
edgeofadv
erseheal
thef
fect
scomesf
rom occupat
ional
Exposur
e,whi
chi
sor
der
sofmagni
tudehi
ghert
hanexposur
eoft
hegener
alpubl
i
c.
ot
Dosest he.Publ
i
car
eusual
l
ysol
owt
hatexcessmor
tal
i
ty,
andev
enexcessmor
bidi
ty,
Ar
enoti
dent
if
iabl
e.Howev
er,
dev
elopmentofpol
l
uti
oncont
rol
techni
quescont
inues
Tor
educer
isk.Thephi
l
osophy
,regul
ator
yappr
oaches,
andengi
neer
ingdesi
gnof
Env
ironment
alpol
l
uti
oncont
rol
composet
her
emai
nderoft
hisbook.

14

Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage17
 Ri
skAnal
ysi
sforpol
lut
ion 2019

Ref
erences

Aust
ral
i
an/
NewZeal
andSt
andar
dAS/
NZS4360:
1999(
1999)Ri
sk
management
.HomebushNSW 2140,
Aust
ral
i
a/Wel
l
ingt
on6001,
NewZeal
and:
Standar
ds
Aust
ral
i
a/St
andar
dsNewZeal
andBoehm,
B.W.(
1989)Sof
twar
eRi
skManagement
.
Pi
scat
away
,NewJer
sey
,USA:
IEEEComput
erSoci
etyPr
ess

Br
it
ishSt
andar
dsI
nst
it
ute(
2000)Br
it
ishSt
andar
dBS6079-
2:2000Pr
ojectManagement
–Par
t2:
Vocabul
ary
.London,
UK:
Bri
ti
shSt
andar
dsI
nst
it
ute

Br
it
ishSt
andar
dsI
nst
it
ute(
2002)Br
it
ishSt
andar
dBS6079-
1:2002Pr
ojectManagement
–Par
t1:
Gui
det
opr
ojectmanagement
.London,
UK:
Bri
ti
shSt
andar
dsI
nst
it
ute

Col
l
ins(
1979)
.Col
l
insDi
cti
onar
yoft
heEngl
i
shLanguage.Gl
asgow,
UK:
Wil
l
iam Col
l
ins
Sons&CoLt
d.

Conr
ow,
E.H.(
2003)Ef
fect
iveRi
skManagement
:SomeKey
stoSuccess(
second
edi
ti
on)
,Rest
onVA,
USA:
Amer
icanI
nst
it
uteofAer
onaut
icsandAst
ronaut
ics

Cooper
,D.F.&Chapman,
C.B.(
1987)
.Ri
skanal
ysi
sforl
argepr
oject
s.Chi
chest
er,
UK:
J
Wi
l
ey

Fi
schhof
f,B.(
1985)Managi
ngr
iskper
cept
ions.I
ssuesi
nSci
enceandTechnol
ogy
,2(
1),
83-
96

Fi
schhof
f,B.
,Li
cht
enst
ein,
S.,
Slov
ic,
P.,
Der
by,
S.L.&Keeney
,R.L.(
1981)Accept
abl
e
r
isk.Cambr
idge,
UK:
Cambr
idgeUni
ver
sit
yPr
essHamm,
R.M.(
1991)Sel
ect
ionof
v
erbal
probabi
l
iti
es:
Asel
ect
ionf
orsomepr
obl
emsofv
erbal
probabi
l
ityexpr
essi
on.

Or
gani
sat
ional
Behav
iour&HumanDeci
sionPr
ocesses,
48,
193-
223

Hammond,
J.S.
,Keeney
,R.L.&Rai
ff
a,H.(
1998)Thehi
ddent
rapsi
ndeci
sionmaki
ng.
Har
var
dBusi
nes.

15
Basi
cEnv
ironment
alEngi
neer
ingPage18