Why Only Six Sigma Not Seven or Eight Sigma. - iSixSigma

11/29/2018 Why only six sigma not seven or eight sigma.
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WHY ONLY SIX SIGMA NOT

SEVEN OR EIGHT SIGMA.
This topic contains 67 replies, has 43 voices, and was last updated by Brandon
10 years, 12 months ago.
https://www.isixsigma.com/topic/why-only-six-sigma-not-seven-or-eight-sigma/ 1/38
11/29/2018 Why only six sigma not seven or eight sigma. – iSixSigma
Viewing 68 posts - 1 through 68 (of 68 total) 

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POSTS
March 29, 2003 at 3:24 am #31829
Newsletters
I got little SEE ALSO

confused
when 1 Six Sigma Salary Payscale
workmen
HVGUPTA 2 Lean Six Sigma Courses
asked me as
to why only
3 Six Sigma Online Courses
six sigma,
why not
4 Six Sigma Certification Eligibility
seven or
eight sigma. 5 Six Sigma Tutorial
Can any
body help
me to find out the answere for this question?
March 29, 2003 at 5:54 am #84290
A good question indeed. There is no harm in going from 6

to 7 og 8. In fact airline industry operate at 10 or more
for flight take off & landing, but for all practical purposses
in an industry where humal life is not at risk six sigma is a
DD
good enough improvement benchmark.
More than that may not be worth the Time, money$$ and
effort.
Thats my take, Hope it answers your query.
Regards
DD
March 29, 2003 at 11:25 pm #84294
DD,
You don’t know what you are talking about. Airline safety
Explore
is only about 6.4 sigma.
 Events
There is no Forum that has
 organization
reached 6 sigma, so the question of 7 or 8 is only theory

Mikel
and kind of dumb.
March 30, 2003 at 8:11 am Newsletters #84301
HV,
I am not sure why you are confused?
What is your current Sigma level? If you are running at a
typical industry average you are in the 3-4 range. Your
Mike Carnell
actual short term goal is probably in the 5 range. Most
industries top out around 5-5.2 before thy need to start
moving into DFSS. If you are getting pulled into some
philosohical navel gazing over that question then you
aren’t going to spend a lot of time moving your sigma
level (at least up).
John Lupienski of Motorola Elma, New York is as good as
anyone walking the face of the earth at Six Sigma or just
plain process improvement. His factory delivers just over
100 products (automotive). He presented a graph at a
Toronto IQPC conference that showed his progess over
the last 7 years moving the factory (measured at the
customer) from 5.1 sigma to 5.8. That makes John about
12 – 22 years away from 7-8 sigma. Unless you are very
young you probably woun’t be seeing it any time soon.
The discussion is NVA.
You have a few issues. First, sigma isn’t a very sensitive
number. When your process is screwed up it takes big
numbers to make it move but that is when improvements
are easy. When it gets to the 5 and up range it takes less
to make it move but they are tougher improvements. A
discussion around 7-8 is a waste of time. Two, why would
they ask you about something they don’t particularly
understand? Maybe because you get confused and go
away. Maybe that was their intent in the first place.
When you are confused what happens to SS from their
perspective? It went away. Three, there is a good chance
you opened this esoteric discussion yourself. The
advantage to using sigma is it lets you compare dissimilar
thing (basically lets you kill off the old stalling technique
thing (basically lets you kill off the old stalling technique
“We’re comparing apples to oranges”). It is a
management metric. At the shop floor level (product
level) the metric that makes sense is ppm or dpu. Use the
correct terminology in the correct environment. If you
have a buring desire to pontificate on sigma do it
somwhere where you don’t do any damage.
Good luck.
Newsletters
April 3, 2003 at 6:31 am #84458
Implementation of Six Sigma ensures “Conformance to

Specification” at a pre-defined conifidence level. Neither
we can afford to set a very loose specification (as
otherwise bound by market / customer demand) to
Amitabha
achieve very easily Six Sigma level of performance nor we
Chattopadhy
can undermine the high confidence level as set in Six
ay
Sigma Model.
This means that Six Sigma itself is pretty diffficult to
achieve and reknowned companies are all struglling to
achieve this. So we can not even dream of 7 Sigma and
above.
It is not our whims and fancy that decides at what sigma
level we need to operate rather it is the organizational
capability vis a vis the bench mark (which customer
adores) that decides the level.
April 3, 2003 at 6:37 am #84459
6 Sigma takes care of 99.73% of the process deviation.

This leaves only 0.27% as suspect product. Any effort to
reduce this 0.27% will result only in extra efforts,
$$$$$$ & time…..without the equivalent amount of
belt
benefits.
Does that answer your query.
April 3, 2003 at 8:47 am #84463
To all, Explore  Events  Forum 

I have read all the replies, and I am amazed at some of the
responses, I was not going validate this forum with a
Jobs  News  Store 
reply until I got to Mike Carnell’s reply, Mike, 3 fair points

Dr. Steve
well made !
Pickering
Stan, I have an Aeronautical Scicence Ph.D and 15 years
Newsletters
Industry experience, I am also an Academy Trained
MBB, And I know it is a proven fact that there are Civil
Aerospace processes operating at 11-12 Sigma, The 6.4
sigma that you refer to actually applies to ALL Aircraft
including Military Vehicles and applies only to Aircraft
landings, Please do not comment on subjects you have
little or no knowledge of.
belt, Not quite sure what level of Belt you think you may
have achieved, but 6 Sigma does not account for 99.73%
of defects, The correct figure is 99.99966%, that’s for
centered Sigma, If you take into account shift, Then the
number drops to 99.865% but still equates to 3.4 ppm –
Another person who pretends to know what they are
talking about.
Now, for the poor sole who posted the original message,
My advice is to concentrate on your subject and be in a
position to answer the simple questions that crop up
from time to time, Or leave the teaching to those of us
who know what we are doing.
To All, Please do not re-post a reply, I will not be reading
them.
Kind Regards,
Dr. Steve Pickering
April 3, 2003 at 9:14 am #84464
This is a question that has no logical answer. However

here is a background.
Normal industry standards of a process is +- 3Sigma.
When Motorola realized that they have to do something
jagdish
to drastically improve the process and reduce the
variation it was taken as +-6Sigma (reduce the variation
be a huge factor ). 6sigma is something that they came up
with and made it as a Industry practice. The theme in
yp
Sixsigma is REDUCE variations.
Explore
Practically  toughEvents
it is very to bring Forum  to
 your processes
6sigma and sustain it. If you are able to get 7 or 8 sigma it

is really excellent.
April 3, 2003 at 11:23 am #84467

Newsletters
Dear Dr. Steve,

A real PhD in Aeronautical Science and Academy
trained? Wow, you must know everything!
I know whaer the original data comes from, not some
Mikel
hype you learned from spin Dr. Mikel. You are the one
who should not comment if you are just passing on tribal
BS from the good doctor.
Dr. Steve, since you are sooo smart and soo well
educated, why don’t you explain what 11 sigma means in
terms of number of take offs and landing without
incident.
In case you are unclear of this, I am in awe.
April 3, 2003 at 11:26 am #84468
Wow, Dr. Steve, you are right about this one. This guy
doesn’t have a clue.
Mikel
April 3, 2003 at 11:53 am #84471
Dear Mr.H.V.Gupta,
Have you ever thought of asking NASA the Sigma level of
the prestigeous Space Shuttle Programme? It is not a
question of number of the Sigma Level attached to the
Manoj
process but assessment and review of the performance
Bhardwaj
level of the process as felt by the customers I dont think
level of the process ,as felt by the customers.I dont think
you would like to ask parents of Kalpana Chawla as to
how much is the Sigma level of the space shuttle
programme.
Sigma level can not beNews
decided till you know the Voice of
Jobs   Store  
the Customers.The level can be improved if required .
Manoj Bhardwaj
Newsletters
April 3, 2003 at 1:19 pm #84475
Six Sigma is / was just a benchmark, when you reach that,

you ought to move to higher levels, the goal is zero failure
or infinite sigma.
Anurag
Asthana
April 3, 2003 at 2:41 pm #84485
Addressed to any Ph.D:Two quotation from Dr.

Wheeler’s Understanding Statistical Process Control
book:1)”…Dr. Taguchi’s concept….On Target with
minimum variance”….”2)”….Zero defects, Six Sigma
R. Ramirez
Quality, Cost of Quality and all other specification based
NOSTRUM miss this point”My quotation (a simple mortal
human)…even if you have 3.4 ppm!
April 3, 2003 at 4:15 pm #84493
Gents,
This stream of answers and hypothetical stuff doesnt
really answer the poor mans question.
I have been asked this before too, my answer was simple,
Sinnicks
it is possible but we are faaaaar away today. So lets walk
before we can run and get our current process
performance to a level which we can mention in public.

DependsExplore
what you
 want to do tothe green
Events belt…want
Forum  to
make his/her head explode and humiliate him/her (not
my prefered method..then start spouting
Jobs  at him/her)
statistics/theory News Want toStore
get him/her
 to 
focus on the problem at hand and stop blocking then tell
them to think about pudding later…we are not even at
Newsletters
the starter yet.
:-)

April 3, 2003 at 4:48 pm #84494
Dear Sir/madam
The same question u wud have asked if it was 7/8 sigma.
regards
Sanjeev
Sanjeev
Goyal
April 3, 2003 at 6:11 pm #84496
When Measuring any process a number of variants can

cause process shift.
The normal distribution of the process falls within a given
graph which when plotted loks like this
Patrick L.
COlvin
Thes lines will never actually touch the x plane
if your process is in control the center line of this graph
will be labeled as 0 the others are then labeled positve
and negative to either side .
the over all width of this graph is the amount of process
control you have.
so you end up measuring out three in either direction
thus
SIX SIGMA
April 3, 2003 at 6:18 pm Explore  Events  Forum  #84497
Jobs  News  Store 

When Measuring any process a number of variants can

cause process shift.
The normal distribution of the process falls within a given
Newsletters
graph which when plotted looks like this
Patrick L.
COlvin
These lines will never actually touch the x plane
if your process is in control the center line of this graph
will be labeled as 0 the others are then labeled positve
and negative to either side .
the over all width of this graph is the amount of process
control you have.
so you end up measuring out three in either direction
thus
SIX SIGMA
April 3, 2003 at 9:45 pm #84505
I think a Six sigma gets us to 99.999% or somthing close

to that. A lot of green belt projects start out with a sigma
of 2 or 3 and getting to 4 or 5 is a major challenge. A six
would be a stretch for many organizations because it is
Abodorra
near perfection. In my opinion, a 7 or 8 would certainly
push the limits and force six sigma practitioners to drive
for extraordinary results which I suppose is possible in
some settings, but certainly not all.
April 3, 2003 at 10:43 pm #84507
Hatsoff to Dr.Steve
Anonymous

April 3, 2003 at 10:58 pm #84508

Hi Guys, Do u want to know about an organisation, which
is implmenting 8 or 9 Sigma? If ur answer is yes, then click
here…. Newsletters
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4447391,00
Arora
Do you want to know more about it, then click here…..
http://www.google.com/search?
num=50&hl=en&lr=lang_en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-
8&newwindow=1&q=Mumbai+tiffin+delivery+network&spell=
Who want Quality gurus?

April 3, 2003 at 11:02 pm #84510
Be Proud of as a Indian… We teach the things to the

world,
rama
April 4, 2003 at 3:55 am #84517
belt,
Just a point. If infact six sigma was 99.73% then it would
cause a serious problem for those people who have
written books, given speechs, etc, that claimed it was 3.4
Mike Carnell
ppm. You need to have a discussion with someone who
understands the concept.
That is a pretty convention (as well as unsubstantiated)
statement – with regards to the $$$$$$$..
Good luck.
April 4, 2003 at 2:10 pm #84529


Belt,
You appear to be as confused about 6-sigma as others
Jobs
that I have News
encountered
 since Store
 I started my journey on the 
path to 6-sigma.
marcel
6-sigma is not +/- 3-sigma, where 99.73% falls; for the
Newsletters
correct answer I suggest you get some training, and, as
the good Doctor stated, leave the dissemination of 6-
sigma to those who can…
Marcel
April 4, 2003 at 5:45 pm #84533
I agree, Stan.
I don’t think there are any organisations operating at 6
sigma.
If you try the sigma calculator you will find 95% yield at
Pandwe J
3.14 sigma, 99% yield at 3.83 sigma and 99.9%
Lubamba
(exceptional) at 4.59 sigma. Six sigma is at 99.9996%!
I hope that helps.
Pandwe.
April 5, 2003 at 5:24 pm #84557
Since Dr. Steve is an ostrich with his head in the sand (will
not be reading this post), I offer the following for
everyonelse to consider.
# of commercial aircraft in operation in the world –
Mikel
13,500 (approximately)
Average # of takeoffs and landing per day –
6
Average # of days in service per year –
300
Near as I can tell, 11 sigma would mean no issues on take
off and landing in over a decade – Sounds like a pretty
bogus number to me. Anyone out there think there have
been no issues on take off and landing in a decade. If you
do go with Dr Stevie He also thinks Dr Mikel is
do go with Dr. Stevie. He also thinks Dr. Mikel is
something special.
April 7, 2003 at 6:45 am #84577

Stan, Newsletters
It would seem I have hit a raw nerve with you, Why ?
Your reading is obviously not that hot, Otherwise you
would have correctly interpreted the actual wording of
Dr. Steve
my comments,
Pickering
“And I know it is a proven fact that there are Civil
Aerospace processes operating at 11-12 Sigma”,
I did not specify that this was for just take-offs &
landings, I merely pointed out that some processes in this
industry are proven to be operating at this figure!
As for Dr. Mikel Harry, I believe he is a good statistician
and a clever guy, I am not a betting man, But I would
hazard a guess he has amassed a formiddable fortune,
through preaching, practising and passing on his Six
Sigma knowledge, Maybe it is not I who has is head in the
sand afterall, and even so, Maybe better in the sand than
up your own ass, (as you Americans often say)!
Wake up lad, Stop having a go at all who may oppose your
views and get on with the job in hand, IMPROVEMENT !
Dr. Steve Pickering
April 7, 2003 at 1:34 pm #84586
Doc,
I just asked for your data. Tell us what it means to run at
11-12 sigma and give us an example, not an anecdote, of
a process that is.
Mikel
The point is that is it is not useful to pass along this BS
when most are at 4 sigma. To talk about even 6 sigma
being achieved as an enterprise is not useful as none have
achieved it.
As for Dr. Mike, I agree with all that you have said except
the practicing 6 sigma, theere is no evidence he has ever
done this himself, just a lot of taking credit for the work
f h H i i l
https://www.isixsigma.com/topic/why-only-six-sigma-not-seven-or-eight-sigma/ i h d if h i d 12/38
of others. He is insanely rich, and if that is your scorecard,
he is a man to be followed.Events 
Explore Forum 
Give us data Doc!

April 7, 2003 at 3:06 pm #84596
Newsletters
Dr. Steve Pickering,

I’m not particularly interested in the >6 sigma discussion.
I stated my opinions in an earlier post.
Just a point. Before you pass judgement on Mikel and
Mike Carnell
choose to follow him to far you should probably get to
know him a little better. There is one thing that cannot be
argued – he did get this industry rolling outside
Motorola. He was/is the great purveyor of Six Sigma.
If you were around at the ASQ Quality Congress debacle
in Indianapolis “The great Six Sigma debate” where Mikel
proposed solving world hunger with Six Sigma? What is
the guideline for six sigma project selection “you can’t
solve world hunger.”
Let’s run a survey: How many of you guys that hired the
Academy have actually worked a project – where you had
to interact with people at the process level have actually
had Mike with you?
The cowboy persona? Mikel is from where? Rich is from
where?
In the words of Andre Aggasi – “image is everything.”
Maybe not the great practitioner you imagine – strictly
my opinion. Away from Six Sigma and the image – a nice
person, good father, and a former Marine.
Just my opinion – I could be wrong.
April 11, 2003 at 1:07 pm #84800
Dr. Steve,
I am still waiting for you to explain to everybody what it
means to run at 11 sigma. I am guessing that you do not
actually know how to figure it out.
Mikel
Alsogive us a specific example of something in real life
that is.

April 14, 2003 at 6:24 pm #84862

Still waiting.
Newsletters
Mikel
April 15, 2003 at 12:28 am #84870
A quote from Dr. Steve’s last post on this subject:

“To All, Please do not re-post a reply, I will not be reading
them.”
Looks like you’re going to be waiting awhile Stan.
Jackie
April 15, 2003 at 10:31 am #84874
Jackie,
Look closer, he was kidding, he replied after that.
Truth is, he doesn’t know what he is talking about with his
claim of 11 sigma processes and he is hiding. I don’t think
Mikel
he knows how to figure out what 11 sigma means – most
don’t.
Thanks for dashing my expectation of a lively discussion
based on data instead of rumour mongering.
April 15, 2003 at 10:56 am #84876
Stan,
You got me. I missed the later post….where he was (hard
as this is to believe) more insulting than you
as this is to believe) more insulting than you.
Have fun.
Jackie Explore  Events  Forum 
Jackie

April 15, 2003 at 7:05 pm #84893
Newsletters
More insulting or not, he is always less informed and

claims data he does not have. You should not be insulting
when working from such a weak platform.
Mikel
April 15, 2003 at 10:00 pm #84898
With a 1.5 sigma shift, the maximum sigma score in the

“sigma calculator” (top right of this screen) is 7.98, and
this happens for a DPMO of 0.00005 or 1 defect per
20,000,000,000 opportunities (that would be 20 billions
mcintosh
in all the world except outside USA, where it would be
20,000 millions).
I wonder if a single aviation process has already created
that ammout of opportunities to be able to say that, with
1 or less defects occurred, the process is better than 7.98
sigmas. For 11 sigmas it would have to be 1 defect in
severeal thousands times those opportunities (inagine a
number like 200,000,000,000,000; or 200 triillions or
billions, deppending if you are inside or outside USA)
I remembes having seen an European avirplane design
standard (JAR) that said something like that the chances
for catastrophic filure shall be less than 1 in 10 millions.
That is 6.7 sigmas. Far from 11.
I also remember that in this forum someone explained
that the “design input” for the transatlantic airways was
that the chances of a person died in an in-flight colision
should be less than 1/1000 the chances of dying because
a natural cause. Roughly (I know it is not correct, but just
to get an idea), a person lives 75 years or about 650000
hours. That is 1 death (defect) every 650000 “lived
hours” (opprtunities). If we consider that the

Explore
transatlantic Events
partof the flight Forum
is 5 hours long, then
 the
chances to die beacuse of a natural cause in that part of

the flight are 1 in 130000 (5 opportunities). If we take
1/1000 of Jobs
that it is 1 inNews
130 millions.
 Store
That is 7.1 sigmas. 
Still far from 11.
If the aircrafts and the airways are designed for let’s say 7
sigmas, I Newsletters
don’t see why would they behave better than
that. And even if there was an aviation process than
never created a defect, still it would be hard to have
enough information (enough “successful” oportunities) to
say that it is at an 11 sigma level.
April 15, 2003 at 10:43 pm #84902
Tom,
Amen.
You just joined Jackie as one of my heroes.
Mikel
April 16, 2003 at 1:03 pm #84913
Tom and Stan-

In absolute agreement! Even nature and its
processes are not above a 7-8 Sigma. Take gene
replication, cell mitosis, bio-chemical reactions. Things
Ronald
that happen hundred of trillions of times. These things
have defective occurences in the billions leading to
defects, cancer, diseases. Even God is not at a 11 Sigma
level. I guess the aviation industry have found
supernatural processes.
Besides, if CTQ processes were at >8 Sigma, the industry
and the insurance companies would be putting up
billboards the size of Cleveland to advertise their
accomplishments.
I guess if I do something 1 time and it is sucessful. I
should never do it again so I can have a infinite sigma
level.
April 16, 2003 at 4:24 pm #84922

According to my preliminary calculations, 11 sigma is the

Newsletters
equivalent of 1 defect for every
1,426,971,118,249,190,000,000,000,000 opportunities.
If the opportunities are occurring at the rate of one
Long
hundred million per second, it would take about 7.5
billion years to record enough opportunities to rate a
process at 11 sigma.
Since the generally accepted age for the earth and the
rest of the solar system is about 4.55 billion years, I think
it would be safe to say that there are no processes that
can be rated 11 sigma.
May 13, 2003 at 12:20 pm #85833
Question 1: Patrick L. Colvin, I saw that reply once,

ignored it, saw it again & my curiosity got better of me ! I
thought 3 sigmas on either side of the mean (within
specs) is a 3 Sigma process. For a Process Sigma of 6, you
Junior
need SIX sigmas within specs on either side of the mean.
Am I missing something here?
Question 2/3: Can someone please explain what happens
to Process Sigma computations when the distribution is
not normal & when you have a one-sided spec limit?
Just the answers will do please, I already know I’m a half-
lettered ignoramus ;-)
May 13, 2003 at 1:27 pm #85834
I was going through the replies and having a good laugh.

Pretty interesting and active discussion. Junior, it’s 3 SDs
on each side of the mean in a 3 Sigma process… when you
have a 6 Sigma process, it’s 6 SDs on each side of the
Strumms
St u s
mean.
I think it Explore
was mentioned

earlier
Eventsabout

how the ends
Forum 
of
the binomial curve never reaches the x axis. So therefore,
in theory there’s never a chance for 100% accuracy. To
me, in myJobs
opinion
 only,News
you can
 have Store
more than
 8 Sigma 
BUT in theory only. I think most industries at the moment
have difficulty in operating high sigma level processes. If
you actually calculate it, a 3 Sigma process will have a SD
Newsletters
of 0.08, 4 Sigma will have 0.06 and 6 Sigma will have a
0.04 SD. So if in effect we go up to 11 Sigma, we’d have a
0 SD… to me, that’s practically impossible due to the
inherent variation in every process/part (random
variation). If you disagree on this, a good example to see
would be the Variable Gage R&R analysis charts. Check
out Chart 1.
If data is not normal, transform it… or use the Weibull
distribution to make your predictions. If you have skewed
or a data set that has a lower/upper bound of zero/non-
zero, you can try using the log or natural log functions to
transform it (or even square/cube root the set, whichever
function is applicable). But my preferred method, use the
Box-Cox transformation in Minitab, then once that’s
done, calculate the Sigma level.
Just a note… the weibull distribution is for when you have
those instances where you can’t convert the non-normal
data to normal… the weibull distribution basically is an
estimate of the percentage of out of spec products.
Hope my answers help you in both your question…
David T.
May 13, 2003 at 1:43 pm #85835
A1. What you said is correct: a 3 sigma process has 3 S.D

to the right and 3 S.D. to the left of the mean that are
within your set tolerances.
Process capabilites indicators are the techniques to use:
C.Stokes
If your process is centerd and at 3sigma your CP would
be =1. The CP for a six sigma process the CP would be
=2. (multiple your CP by 3 to work out your sigma level)
A2. If your process is not centered (Cpku not equal to
Cpkl) then the Cpk for the lesser of the two values
(x3) would give you your actual sigma level The Cp
(x3) would give you your actual sigma level. The Cp
value (x3) would give you your potential sigma level if you
managed to center your process.
You can use the CPk calculation method for one-side
specs as well
Jobs(use either Cpku for uper specs, or Cpkl for
 News  Store  
lower specs)
If your data is not normal then the calculations do not
apply. Newsletters
Either try to fit your data to a known distribution (and
calculate the probabilities thae hard way), normalise the
data first (and report that it has been normalised) ….
alternatively use non-parametric SPC to really control
your process and forget about trying to calculate a sigma
value!
Hope this helps

May 13, 2003 at 6:15 pm #85848
Hello Mike, I need some clarification and

confirmation. Some of these people are loose canons so I
wanted to go right to you. First of all there are two ways
to measure it: Attribute (how many people died or were
Martínez
hurt in airplane accidents as a % of travelers) or Variable
(I am given an upper and lower spec limit and I count the
standard deviations between those and my target) In
attribute I can see all of the arguments. People can
chooses different measurements and start arguing over
it. Thats OK with me. With variable though it seems that
there is no question. Moreover how can people say that
10-12 Sigma is ‘an unattainable ideal’ or whatever was
said. If my supplier wants a piece of paper larger than a
postage stamp and smaller than a doorway and I
consistently supply 8 1/2 x 11 then I can easily hit 11, 12
or 200 Sigma.
May 14, 2003 at 12:12 am #85851
On question #1, you are right. Mr. Colvin obviously was

trained with Annie and does not have a clue.

On question #2, you
Explore  haveEvents
two choices.
 Transform
Forum  to
normal if it is legit or find the correct underlying
Mikel
distribution and find your margin with respect to
expectations.
Jobs Sigma level,
News after
 all, isStore
just a statement of 
margin.
Newsletters
May 14, 2003 at 12:29 am #85856
Mikey is on hiatus from here it seems, so you get the

loose canon.
Yes, in theory 11 sigma is possible, but we are talking
reality. The scenario Dr. Stevie claimed to have data on
Loose Canon
does not exist. Read one of the posts where someone
Stan
took me up on my challange to define what 11 sigma
means. If you know some reality, not some fable like Dr.
Stevie – bring us data and I will stop being a “loose canon”
May 14, 2003 at 3:46 am #85858
David T.
In Theory and in practice, Natural Mixing Processes(ex:
Thermodynamic Processes) operate at nearly Infinite
sigma levels. In Professor Kenneth Denbigh’s notable
John H.
text on the Principles of Chemical Equilibrium , he uses
the example that the probability of a density relative
change of .001% in 1 cm^3 of air is smaller than 10^-
(10^8) and would not be observed for Trillions of years.
In reading the posts on the subject, I could help but
wonder if Dr. Steve Pickering was waiting for a “sucker
bet” on an example of an 11 sigma process
-John H.

May 14, 2003 at 4:37 am #85859
St th f th i
https://www.isixsigma.com/topic/why-only-six-sigma-not-seven-or-eight-sigma/ i ht H i t 20/38
Strumms, thanx for the insights. However, am curious to
know how you got
Explore 
the SDEvents
valuesfor various Process
Forum 
Sigmas (“3 Sigma process will have a SD of 0.08…”)?? I
would have thought the SD value depends on the actual
Junior
dataset you’re
Jobs  dealingNews
with….how
 didStore
it become
 a 
standard derivative of Process Sigma?
Newsletters
May 14, 2003 at 6:50 am #85863
You’re right Junior. What I was trying to put across was

that as your sigma level increases, your SD decreases
closer to 0. I was referencing a Standard Normal
Distribution, thus the figures. My apologies for being
Strumms
confusing.
May 14, 2003 at 9:16 am #85866
A few thoughts on sigma calcs for non-normal data:

If you have derived a process mean and S.D. from
individual counts and the data is not normally
distributed, then as everybody has been saying it would
C.Stokes
be inappropriate to use the normal sigma calcs (you’d
have to transform first, or fit to an appropriate
distribution).
However, if you took sub-samples from your process and
worked out the ‘grand’ process mean (mean of samples)
and estimated S.D., then the Central Limit
Theorem would imply that the distribution of your
samples would be normal. Consequently you could then
do standard sigma calculations on this data (but report
that it was on sub-samples not individuals).
Am I correct in this assumption or am I missing
something?
May 14, 2003 at 11:01 am #85868
Strumms, am still not clear about what those figures

Explore
mean. I would have
 thoughtEvents
the SD Forum  Normal
 of a Standard
Distribution is 1 regardless of the Process Sigma level.

Could you pls briefly explain the 0.8 fig you talked about
Junior Jobs Process?News  Store  
for a 3 Sigma 
Newsletters
May 14, 2003 at 2:47 pm #85880
Hi Junior. I shouldn’t have mentioned about the

corresponding figures. The point I wanted to bring across
was the decrease in SD values as your Sigma level
increases. As I’ve replied before, you’re absolutely
Strumms
correct in that for a Standard Normal Distribution, the
SD is 1 and the mu is 0.
June 2, 2003 at 4:10 pm #86586
> 6 Sigma? I have no data, but think it applies to:

1 Returnable or un-buyable products in Supermarkets
2 Unviewable TV-hours vs. TV-hours broadcast
3 Driving miles lost due to “bad” gasoline
Dave Gentile
June 2, 2003 at 5:53 pm #86593
What a “string” of comments you created. I hope this

response will give you some practical, usable value.
Other’s comments certainly gave you enough
background on 6 or 7 or 8 Sigma, but here is an easy, cost
Howard
effective way to move from 5 to 6 or from 6 to 7 or 8
Cooper
Sigma. Let us keep in mind “The Goal.” The goal is to make
money! Using DMAIC is an excellent way to train people
to focus on problems and generate solutions, so the
problem will not crop up again. The goal is to point a
motivated team toward gaining increased efficiency,
productivity and increased profits. We may call it Six

Explore
Sigma but Events
it often never really gets Forum
 “there” unless
 we
address the stresses that cause malfunctions, failures

and downtime, to the computers and machine tools – the
Jobs  but ignored
other important News part of that
Store“team”!
 
Newsletters
June 3, 2003 at 5:26 pm #86625
Assuming you are treating flights individually and a

crashed flight is a defect then the Sigma value is really
closer to 3.5 to 4.0 (good years being more towards four).
Some may claim higher numbers if they change the
James G.
assumptions, but quite simply if you look at the total
Chirumbolo
number of takeoffs per year as compared to the number
McKee
of planes that crash you will get something in this range.
July 15, 2003 at 4:20 pm #87960
Jim,
Doesn’t GE aircraft engines strive for this standard?
Johnson&Johnson’s Ethicon Endosurgery strives for a
similar quality, though their metrics for acceptance could
Curtis
be much looser than those for a commercial turbofan.
Aldrich
Accepted manufacturing tolerances, however, can be
loosened to allow any manufacturer to lay meaningless
claim to the almost holy sixsigma standard. This may be a
difficult game for the airlines to play in the scenario you
pose. There really isn’t much grey area in the metric of
crash vs. no crash. ; )
But seriously…Email me if you see this. I have some
questions regarding the ex-pad on Jefferson.
Thanks,
Curtis
July 15, 2003 at 4:29 pm #87963
Curtis,
GE does strive and will continue to strive for this level of
performance. Where we are now is merely a step in the
journey towards this achievement. It will take the
James G. Jobs  News  Store 
balance of cost, quality and time to get there.

Chirumbolo
Cheers,
McKee
-Jim
Newsletters
jim.mckee@ae.ge.com
July 15, 2003 at 4:41 pm #87965
Jim,
Did you graduate from Mariemont High School in 1991?
Curtis
Curtis
Aldrich
July 15, 2003 at 4:51 pm #87968
Does a bear #%@% in the woods? How many people do

you know who have a last name like mine?
Yes it is me.

James G.
Cheers,
Chirumbolo
-J
McKee
jim.mckee@ae.ge.com
July 15, 2003 at 7:33 pm #87974
Purely by chance! At 3.4 PPM

It is considered excellent in most manufacturing
organizations, however in the airline industry, medical
fields etc. you would want better !
Ron

July 16, 2003 at 6:45 am #87987

The importance of 6sigma is not in the single process

Newsletters
yield, but in the rolled yield. If you have a
process/product with 20 characteristics each of them
operating at 3 sigma (long term), the rolled yield is only
fernando
25%.
If you have a very complex system with 1000
characteristics, you need a 6sigma capability for each of
them in order to maintain a rolled yield of 99.3%
Another example: 100 chracteristics, each of them
having capability 4.5 sigma (99.865). The rolled yeld
drops to 87.4%
July 16, 2003 at 8:57 am #87988
I am under the impression that 6s is almost unachievable

firstly due to financial restrictions imposed by the
knights of the round table (upper management) and
secondly the fact that each subsequent process
MG
improvement yields a lower return in relation to
investment, estimated @ 50%.
Equally, if you have achieved 6s 7 or 8 would just be icing
on the cake.
July 16, 2003 at 11:52 am #87991
There are organisations working at aboove 6 sigma level.

example is motorola where the DPMO is lesser than 3.4
An agreeable answer to why not 7 or 8 sigma would be
that the returns w.r.t the investment in terms of time &
jaideep
money put in is v v less.

July 16, 2003 at 12:45 pm Explore  Events  Forum  #87995
WhoeverJobs News was above

toldyou Motorola Store 
6 sigma was lying 
to you.
The rest of your answer is just theoretical jiberish.
Newsletters
Mikel
December 27, 2004 at 1:59 pm #112844
Much has been written about the Dabbawalas (Lunch

Box delivery boys) of Mumbai. Ever since the popularity
of their craft grew I have on many occassions, while
travelling on the Mumbai Local Train, observed the
Shreesh S
dabbawalas at work and have seen it from Six Sigma
Kate
point of view and tried to figure out what could be the
secret behind their success.
They are organized as a Co-operative Society (no-profit
organization).They are about 5000 strong handling about
200,000 dabbas every day one way – that makes 400,000
transactions a day – for a charge of about US $ 4.00 (four)
per month per dabba.
Some lessons may be learnt from the following
observations.
The consignor and the consignee is the same person – no

room for inter-party disputes. They do not issue a
document / consignment note. They do not obtain an
acknowledgement (‘legal’ ??) and there is no record of
delivery.
Although the No of transactions per day is large each
person handles a limited No transactions at a time,
manually, with no processing involved except sorting
(manageable scale – around 50 dabbas per person on an
average at a time).
They do not deliver to the exact address of the person –
they deliver it to the floor or wing or building No,
etc., The consignee/consignor identifies his dabba (lunch
b t i )f th l t
https://www.isixsigma.com/topic/why-only-six-sigma-not-seven-or-eight-sigma/
l d d t hi 26/38
box container) from the lot unloaded at his
floor/wing/bldg
Explorebased

onEvents
his personal

identification
Forum 
marks on the container and he puts it back in the lot after
lunch – it saves time & manpower. It shortens the address
tremendously
Jobs and avoids
Newswriting
 andStore
reading
 of full 
address and name – and avoids those many ‘error
opportunities’.
The ‘address’ is coded in specific standard format using
Newsletters
color paints (requires visual recognition – not reading).
The color code containes 3/4 characters for origin and
3/4 characters for the destination. The pattern of
colours/signs on a sorted lot of 50 Nos to be handled by
one person has a very specific color pattern – any odd
pattern becomes easily recognizable. This by-passes a
major source of error (‘defect opportunity’ in Six Sigma
parlance) – reading a non-formatted address and sorting
on that basis (like in case of post card). The ‘visual signals’
are used by Japanese extensively in car manufacturing.
The color code address is almost permanent on the lid of
the metal container – not put each time for each delivery
– those many error opportunities are saved.
The external container that houses the lunch box inside is
of standard shape & size. The containers are palced in a
single tire in a wooden crate (the lids of entire lot are
visble). The color code pattern on the lids of the entire lot
of 50 can be visually scrutinized very quickly in one span
of vision.
The color codes are such that each person at origin /
destination checks whether he has recd the right
lot/container or not. Thus it undergoes very quick checks
at each point where the dabbas change hands.
It also by-passes a major activity of document processing
which in turn obviates a major step of flow of dabbas &
documents to Offices, data capture, distribution from
offices, office staff, document processing, phones,
computers, record of delivery, etc., (done for courier
service) – it avoids those many ‘error opportunities’.
The dabbawals never lose personal custody/contact with
the dabba crates throughout the delivery process
although they use 2/3 different means of transport –
they almost travel with their consignment.
The transactions are extremely repetitive in nature –
origin and destination remain the same over a period for
a dabba – so the ‘address’ color codes for a container are
constant over a long period. Because of this the color

Explore
code pattern of alot of 50Events Forum
Nos ina crate also remains

constant for a long period.

The same person handles the same lot over a long period
every dayJobs
– the News  on lids gets
 color pattern Storemastered
 / 
remembered easily by the dabbawal for a lot of 50 – any
error is easily obvious as it immediately shows as an odd
Newsletters
item in the population. Every dabbawala knows exactly
what to expect in his lot.
The operation leverages on the efficient Mumbai Local
Trains.
The operation is non-commercial in nature – it is
philanthropic in content.
The consignment and its contents are also unique – it is
low cost/value, perishable, cannot be
repacked/rehandled, contents are non-standard, no
alternate commercial usage, no resale value, the
container (dabba) is used and has little alternate usage –
it renders the consignment practically non-reusable
hence non-pilferable – it is secure with no extra cost or
processes.
The effectiveness of operation leverages on above
properties and uniqueness of the operation and the
nature of the consignment. It also depends on low stake
of the customers, the personal integrity of the
Dabbawalas and the trust of the customers.
The dabbawals of Mumbai operate in a supremely simple
and low cost manner in an environment characterized
by very high repetitiveness, certainty and predictability –
practically nothing changes for months in the entire
course of operation, except an odd addition/deletion of
containers and maybe a few persons.
Repetitive/predictable transactions with high visual
content get mastered by human minds easily although
statistically they add up to a certain number and a certain
sigma score. Wonder if there is any process of ‘discount’
on the Six Sigma score for these kind of extremely
repetitive/predictable transactions – SS professionals to
pl scrutinize this.
The success of dabbawala operation in Six Sigma terms
lies in the extreme repetitiveness/ certainty/
predictability of the nature of the operation itself
coupled with an equally simple design (the whole thing is
Designed For Six Sigma-DFFS) The only ‘process’
Designed For Six Sigma-DFFS). The only process
involved is sorting, loading, unloading. It does not need
any technology, infrastructure or qualified persons to
operate – and that is the strength of it – and as such the
number of variables (EFFECTIVE ‘defect opportunities’)
is reduced to minimum.
Can this operation be done on a mass scale or over long
distances ?? Can it be replicated in baggage handling in
Newsletters
Airlines for instance ? It is hard to imagine other such
applications relevant for business/industry where similar
modus-operandi can be replicated.
My colleague in M&M had a brainwave to start a daily
dabba service from Mumbai to US for indian students
there ?? !!
Someone should do a study of our legendary age-old
Indian Postal System – it is principally the same as
dabbawala operation but on a massive scale –
traditionally no technology is employed – and they
generally do a very neat, reliable job. The No of
transactions is very high – the error opportunities are far
higher – the six sigma score must be very high.
This is no attempt to discredit the good-old-reliable
dabbawalas of Mumbai but one needs to basically
ascertain the facts notwithstanding the media hype.
Will SS professional comment on this unique Operation
in the World.
Shreesh S Kate

May 6, 2006 at 9:13 am #137364
As we know from Normal Distribution curve

The area of 1s covers approximately 68% of all values,
at 2s there are 95% and
6s (six sigma) contains 99,99996% of all values.
Chandran
The theoretical value of 100% can not be reached in
practice, because the curve meets the x axis in the
infinity

Now For Dabbawallas PPM Calculation:

No of Dabbas Served / day=200000
No of Dabbas Served / day 200000
No of Dabbas Served per month= 200,000X25=
5,000,000
Error Rate is 1 in 2 Months
I.e. 1 error in 20,000,000 transactions (Collection &
Delivery)

PPM=0.058 or 6.8 Sigma
Newsletters

Now six sigma gives us 3.4PPM. Is there anything beyond
to measure that??
The current six-sigma level is decided by Motorola to
have a 10-fold increase in profits. Why, because most of
Motorola s products are complex and have many steps
in the manufacturing process. With many parts as well. It
was based on a typical 1200 part step process. And also
1.5 sigma shift.
Juran indicated back in 1980 when referring to a 3 sigma
wide bell shape curve on a normal distribution, that if
your specification was at 4 sigma, then there was a better
chance to catch bad parts before shipping them when
you were doing SPC, (Statistical Process Control).

Now can we rate Dabbawallas seven or eight sigma?
Dabbawallas collect Dabba from Home & Deliver it to
offices, This cycle is reversed in the afternoon

The CTQ (critical-to-quality parameters) address before
lunchtime:
(1) Lunch boxes must be delivered on time, and
(2) Recipients must receive their own lunch boxes and
not some one else s.

Humble Dabbawallas are still not aware of this
calculation and they don t accept making 34 mistakes in
two months, which gives them 6 Sigma

We make a mistake perhaps once in two months . Our
livelihood depends on delivering efficiently told
Raghunath Medge, President, NMTBSA

Then Why Motorola did not go for Seven or Eight Sigma?
As it just wasn t practical from an economic point of
view for Motorola .At some point spending money to
train and monitor people and processes just wasn t

going to return
Exploreon
 the investment.
Events  Of course
Forumall of
 this
goes same for GE, 3M, Dupont, Honeywell, etc.
Six sigma is the best productivity toolkit that exists
today; The figure
Jobs  of sixNews
was arrived
 statistically
Store  by 
looking at the current average maturity of most business
enterprises. We need to wait for new Toolkit till world
becomesNewsletters
a more orderly and predictable (even with
increasing entropy or chaos) place to live!

Till then we can rate our Dabbawallas with Superlative
term Beyond Six Sigma
Six Sigma has one purpose: To serve the business. The
business does not serve Six Sigma.
May 6, 2006 at 3:35 pm #137368
Yeah, yeah, yeah….. Hard to believe that the humble

dabbas make only one error in 20 million opportunities.
Maybe this is an example of a selection process where
errors are not reported, recorded or consolidated.
The Soft
I love the quote which includes the word “perhaps”. Who
Drink
wouldn’t be proud of a process where you can simply
Vendor
make up the data…..
I know in my Dabbawalla business, which is advertised
frequently on conservative talk radio (you know the one,
make six figures working from home in your PJ’s, even
with bad credit) we purposely don’t keep detailed
records and if a client complains, he knows what we’ll do
to his lunch next time. Toasted roadkill anyone?
We soft drink vendors think we’ve done well when
only half of our customers are unhappy. Dr. Pepper any
one? None for you, Dr. Eugene.
Hard to believe more of those dabbawallas don’t get
bumped off by Mumbai cab drivers who refuse to use
their lights to save their battery in the night hours.
Maybe GE or Honeywell is thinking about getting into
the dabbawalla business too. Better watch your back.
December 6, 2007 at 7:31 am #165773


I realize that this is an old mail trail, but I’m praying that
the use of the term “loose canon” is not just a lame
Jobs but a clever
spelling error News  on theStore
pun disparity
 of math 
calculations (and egregious spelling errors) on this
Roger not
hopefully erudite/literate mail trail.
the same Newsletters
December 6, 2007 at 9:08 am #165775
Roger (not the same),

I am not sure who you were expecting a reply from but
the use of the term “canon” was not my post so I can’t add
much clarification in terms of intent.
Mike Carnell
I did reread the 4 1/2 year old string and thought that
MBB brought us a significant point with the example:
“If my supplier wants a piece of paper larger than a
postage stamp and smaller than a doorway and I
consistently supply 8 1/2 x 11 then I can easily hit 11, 12
or 200 Sigma.”
That is an accurate example of what can be done when
someone gives you a specification wide enough to pitch a
dog through. Let’s look at what can be done when you get
a situation like that. It is easy to satisfy the customer just
as MBB said. If I do supply a 8 1/2 X 11 sheet of paper (or
even A4) what have I done for the company I work for? I
have actually suboptimized the profitability of the
company. I can supply a piece of paper that is slightly
bigger than a postage stamp which will cut my cost,
probably increased profitability and still satisfied my
customer. The process that would cut that small piece of
paper has a standard deviation. I can use that standard
deviation to back the target for the cutting process off
the lower specification a certain distance depending on
what percent defective I am willing to ship (if you believe
in the 1.5 sigma shift use that if you don’t use something
else – it makes no difference to me). The result is you now
have two happy customers 1. the external customer is
still getting what they want 2. the internal customer
(your company) is making more money
(your company) is making more money.
Anyone who has ever plated precious metals as a part of
their process knows this to be true. A real life comment
from a VP I worked for in terms of plating gold thicker “I
can drive a Lincoln Continental off a f__ing bridge every
day for what you are costing me in scrap.” He wanted me
plating on the lower spec with a standad deviation of 0.
PoundingNewsletters
out a high sigma value is not always the end
game in deploying six sigma. regardless of what we may
or may not want to believe most of us are here or are
working for someone who is here to make a profit. If you
are driving the six sigma deployment bus and the only
gage on your dashboard is sigma you will eventually
crash the bus.
Just my opinion.
December 6, 2007 at 5:31 pm #165795
Great explanation & example Mike.

Guess that’s why it’s called continuous improvement –
there’s no end to how good we can get.
Brandon
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