U.S. AIR FORCE PROJECT RAND RESEARCH MEMORANDUM STUDIES IN THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSPORTATION * Mertin Beckmann C. B. McGuire Christopher B. Winsten PM-1488, 12 May 1955 Assigned to This is @ working paper. It may be expanded, modified, or with- drawn at any time. The views, conclusions, and recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views or of the United States Air Force. Cay 7 RAND epee 1700 MAIN St, © SANTA MONICA + CALIFORNIA — * To be published by Yale University Préss. ~ Copyright, 1955 {The Cowles Comission, 'Int PART I. duction. + + Renee ents A STUDY OP HICHWAY TRANSPORTATION CHAPIEE ection Capectty « Pac : Seen oer auctor PIE IPICPICeeCa aca ecACe Ace Eom E the Capacity of Intersections... ee ee 1.2.1, The Stop-Sign Intersec! 212.8 3.2.2, Intersections Contr wi. 112.3. Reated Work in the Literat see Lele Llelhl A Mocel -f Intersectivn Delays... 2 2 se 123 The Uniform-Speed Capacity of a Read se ee ee 2B ali. The Free-Sreed Distributin ss 2 ee ee ee eh? ized Speed Distribution... 2. es Leked 5 and the Free-Sreed Caracity Function « Ley The Reieti m Between the Free~Speed Capacity Speed Distribution... + L.u.d. Sime Si mings of the Free-Svéed Ce;acity Cone! aeneaetaes 1.4.6, The Releti-n n Eotveen 8 a Unifor curve ani @ Free~ pection MECC Cccp fe Stop-Sign Case 2 ee Bell With @ General Major-Road Arrival Distributim ss ee ee ed Binmial Arrivals on the Major Road . . Tae Dist of the Lengths of Green ntervals see ee ee ed y Traffic in the Matn Road. . « An Applization of the Tae 25kccnrEnTs CHAPTER 2 2.1. Decisions of Ruad Users eee ee ee ee eee feroul (coats re erie irae rar ip iran deiearanicar aucune eget 2.2.1. Composition ef tran PUCeCRCACAcacAcun2=® Pia.2, Trensportetion Gest ea e Rinstion of Flow 11.) Be 2.3. Tne Demand for Road Use 6 BT 2.3.2. The Choice -f Routes . . Peeeen een Eee nea. 7 2.3.2* Shortest Koutes and Trip Gosts ss ss ee es 2D 2.3.3. The Induced Demand fcr Use of a Read... 1... 21h 2.4, The Demand for Transportation ©... ee BD 2.M.1. The Demand for Trips ee ee ee ee Be18 2.4.2" Demand Functions end Capacity Functions... . - - 2.20 CHAPTER 3 qed betas See eae Cea eRe Reno R SES RR oRemeSeL Bel. Bquilibrius in a Network oe BS Formlation of the Egulibrium Contitions «+ 335 Existence of Sclutions ts the Equilibrium Gees creme) egP SPOR ee U eee ee tense ta EDU once Shee) Uniqueness of the Solutions... 2. 2 5.10 3.2. ef Changes tn Cepacity and tn Demand... ss... o3.1h #n Inequality on the Effect of Lata Changes...» 3.19 Beep) [psec csi Ila lool idldla loll aia Ee ae) et et eto) By let Aajustuents of Road Users. ee ee IG Nuzerical Examples of Approach to Equilibrium . . . 3.23 CHAPTER & ieienos (ede aI aaa aC a RC UCRC A aCICR Ret een eR ened Pye) ucabest Cello leslie le sit elev tic et 4.1.1. The Allocation cf Road Capacity... 2-2-2 ee ALASS 5-18-55, waiit- Tae Meaning o! 4.2. Cost Mininization on Tv: cca ac ef 22, Pigou's Problem... 2. eee ee 2. Private Cust ani Sceiai Cost --- + - ee eee 4 4 4.3, Effictent Transportation in Networks 6. 2. 2 ee + ited A... Maximization Subject to Linear Inequalities es conser cor eC mecca tc 4.3.2" Minimization of Transrcrtation Cost Subject to a Fixed Program. s+... soe hg 4.5.3 Moxinization of Consumers! Surp oe bh Bey Seen cay ca ses 4. mea ses 4 wee ha ih3, A Limited ' eee eiea ey usd, The Value « Artie tac nae ieascs) 4.5, Tell Roads Reeons CRMC crs cicd es Poser) eakcret by 6) bebo! B15) 6) 5/15) ol blololelclelelcs lool ues CEAPTER 5 necusion; Sume Unsolved Problems... - ee eee eee tical Capacity Functions 6 ee ee ee raative Kotivns of Cepacity for sel Z.5* Commodity Trane: ortetion Models... 6 ee ee eee oe 2 trafiioesca eee Pear eae a eyes ems cf tne Leng Rua eae ae Snalesannoe ey smsnn ion ean ee Peeve cane PART II. A STUDY GF RAILROAD TRANSPORZATION Alroae Tine and Inveater; <. Tine ana the Stock f Freight Cars... eeeRM-1-83 6-12-55 tiv- Freight Gpereticns enc the Clossifiertion Pllcy 6 - ee ee ui pescription of Freizet Got osificstion Policy of @ Yards. +e ee ee Yard Ope: cuaPvan & Pia ee sestatra lacy nlelololeslalalooleole jleoles|etlerles le ile eure a System of YarPa e20rs aac nec) + 6.8 eae aie eee EIC IG) Pee een ei Intrvcuetary Renark: & Stele Seheca? 212.2 Freigit-cex 12.1 32.1.2. leans of Eve PUPSPUCRCAc ACA CH enc! 12.2 tHou Routing Patterns . . 12.4 Eta R Peace eas uses ond Deficits E aaa aa Results... - e+ eePeCecaracaeacl Conclusions With Res: PRO Slch ehh leh it Ich il dal ee endix) Formal De: the Surplus -pefiest Computation Srvet PICPICPICHeaPR a aCHCa i231)Intzndsetio by Tjalling C. Koopmans The exploretory etudies presented in this report are addressed to enalysts in various profesaions, including econorists, traffic end railroad engineers. mansgenent scientists, operations researchers and methensticians, who are interested in asseasing the capcbilities and studying the ficient operation of transportation systens. Studies relating to tvo systems, bigh- vey traffic end reilros¢ transportation, are cffered. ‘The tasks indicated -- assessing capebilities and pprateing efficiency of cperation -- are as vast end complicated as the tronspcrtation systens thezselves. ‘The purpese cf the present studies is to develop and illustrate certain concepts, methods and models that mey have usefulness as points of departure for the execution of these tasks. While the aim cf these studies is thus both modest ond provisional, they are cffered in the hope of stims- lating further factual, conceptual, mathenstical and computational research inte the efficient utilization of transportation systems. Tue method exployed consists in the construction of sinple models. Tae vord “nodel", frequently used 4p engineering studies to mean @ vhysical model, teat ts, an accurcte copy of the eyrter stuited (often with the scale altered), Ja here used in the nore general meaning attached to 1t by puysicists ent social scientists elike. A model here means « sinplified conceptual counter- part of the system studied. In such « model the most important variebles of the system studied are enumerated and defined, end the relevant relationships tween them specified. Veriekles end relationships thus express the most essentis: aspects of the system in question bit leave cut many other aspects, sc that an cpentng wedge for analysis may be provided.RE-LA68 5o12-55, ta. ‘Tois analysis is often mathematical in character. H.wever, the netheneticel underpinning of the stulies here presented hes been set off ip separate sections, marked by an asterisk(*). ‘These sections can be passed over by the reader interested mainly in their results, which are fully deseribed in sections without thet symbol. ‘Te application of the method cf maiel construction to operating or business problems hes increased substantially in recent years. To name first a few exemples unrelated to transportation, we refer to two studies on inventory policy ty Arrow, Harris and Marschek [1951] end by Dvoretsky, Kiefer and Wolfovitz [1952], in which models are designed to help balence inventory costs against losses fram stock depletion. Another family of models constitute the general field of “Linear programing”, a technique to compute programs for the interdependent activities of a large organization. Beeid the original presentations by Dantzig [1951a] (Jointly with M. K. Wood), (19520, c, end d] we mention an expository discussion by Dorfman [1953] in terms of a problem of automobile production, and an application to gasoline blending by Charnes, Cooper and Mellon [1952]. Simtler studies in terms of a very simple linear model of transportation heve also been mede. Tyo mathenaticiens, FP. L. Hitchcock [1941] in the United States end L. Kentoroviteh [19h2]2/in Russia, and one economist (the author of thie introduction) independently cf each other formulated the problem of most economical execution of a given transportation progrem between « number of locations in the case where the per unit cost of transportation betveen each pair of locetions ie independext of the enount transported. This model belongs to the class of "linear programing” motels end has served as one of iJ Tals ref nee vas Drought to our notice by M. M. Flood [1954].the stock exazples of this class. Dantzig (19516) explored the computational aspects of the above (Linear) trensportetion problem, vbich vere carried further end epplied to a military tenker fleet problem by Flood [1953], (1954]. Economists studied various implications of this model, such as the relative costs of alternetive possible changes in the transportation program and the relationship of these cost ratios to freight retes formed in competitive markets (Koopmans [1947], Koopmans end Reiter [1951]) as vell as the relation of freight rates to interregional price differences and movements of goods (enke [2951], Semseison [1952], Fox [1955]). An extension of the model to @ situetion where places of origin ana destination are continuously distrib- uted in @ plane was given by Beckmann {1952}. An important general result of the studies mentioned is that, under the circumstances of the simple model described, a competitivemarket solves the most economical routing problem as efficiently as © cectrally directed transportation organization could. From the point of view of the efficient utilization of the transport systens of road and rail, the applicability of the simple linear (“constant cost") model is rether limited. It ignores all phenomena of congestion, either et terminals, or en route. Perheps the nost important case where this assump- tion is approximately satisfied 19 that of ocean or leke shipping between uncongested ports. The linear model further ignores indivisibilities, such fas ariee from the bunching of a nusber of railroad cars into a train for vhich one inéivietble engine provides traction. To extend the analysis of trans- portation systems by model construction, it will therefore be necessary to “forget” the linear model, and tske a fresh look et the technological and” crganinational circumstances of various transportation systens. However, efore leaving the linear model, let us point cut one practical application of importance for the individual business firm that hes plente in several’5-22-59 ye locations. This spplicetion arives if, even taough actual cost of trans~ portation on each route actually depends cn the amount transperted, # public carrier makes the service in question aveileble at # constant freight rate. Toe linear model then suffices to show this firm how to minimize its bill for transportation from plents to customers, even though the minimum-billed- cost flows of goods so computed beve no vecessary relation to the best util ization of the transportation system. In our study of highway traffic, the main enphesis is on the effects of traffic congestion. Congestion phenonene have teen subjected to methenstical analysis in the theory of telephone systens by Erleng (in Brockmeyer, et al. [198] )end Pelm [1945], and more recently in a more general analysis of queues (Kendell [1951]) such as arise tn many situations: people vaiting for service in a bank, ships vaiting for access to port or repair facilities, airplanes circling to land, pedestrians wetting for on opportunity to cross a street, ete. | o determine the calculus of probability, how the evereze waiting tine, and the extent of fluctuation in individual waiting tim depend on the crportunities for serviciag (mumber of servers, average of and fluctuations in service tize), and on the amount end irregularity of the inflow of cleizants for service. In Chapter 1 of this report, queue theory 4s applied to such traffic situations as; the flow of care through en iatersection, end the passing of slower cars vy fester cars through the use of geps occurring in the opposing traffic streen. In odaition, in Chapters 5 and 4, the maiz results of such stuiiesRe 5o22-55, 25. are incorporated into the assumptions of « (ncn-Linear) model of highvay traffic on a road network. ‘It was said at the beginning of this introduction that one important objective to which our studies are ultimately directed 1e the determination of the capabilities of transportation systems -- in the present case of a road network. It will now be clear that this cannot be expressed in « single number like so many vehicle-miles per day. It is an et tial aspect of con- gestion phenomena that -- up to & limit beyond which overloading starts -- more "service" can alvays be obtained at higher unit cost. Hence, the capability concept to be analyzed hes more dimensions than a single nunber. Even for one individual one-way road, it is represented by a curve, vhich gives the reletionsnip betveen the flow of traffic through the road and the cost encountered on it, in terms of the money equivalent of travel tine, fuel and depreciation, and possibly risk or other sacrifices measurable in money equivalents. The higher the flow, the greater the cost encountered. The time element alone, probably the most important cost factor, ie represented in the "capecity curve" of the traffic engineer. In this curve, flow is set off against average speed, the reciprocal of travel time. This curve and the concepts associated vith 4t, are presented and discussed in Chapter 1, vhich ie based on study of the relevant traffic engineering literature, For a road network, the capabilities sre expressed by the relationship betveen traffic flovs on all routes end the costs encountered on each es a result of these flows A theory of bighvay traffic should of course go beyond a deseription of the cepabilities of @ network to @ study of how these capabilities are utilized. This introduces the ecncept of Genand for transportation. ‘The flovs of highway traffic are the result of a great many individual decisions about destinetions,routes and preferred speeds. There is somewhat of an analogy between highway treffic equilibrium and the models used by the economist to explain quantity sold in @ market by the interéction of denanters end suppliers. The behavior of densndere is sumed up in a "dewand curve", vhich states the amounts taken off the market at various alternative prices. Similarly, the supply curve states anounts offered for the various possible prices. Actual price is then determined, by intersection of the curves, to be that price at vbich denend equals supply. Op the supply side the analogy is not a close one. Except for toll roade, ‘there is no party in the market selling access to roads for a price. Each Piece of road not occupied or endangered by another vehicle is free for use by whomever is near, However, there is a cost of tragsportation, incurred individually in terms already discussed. If ve regard this cost as the "price’ in the transportation "market", the sconorist's notion of a demand curve does become applicable. For a single one-vay road it vould state vhat flow of traffic is demanded at any given cost encountered on that road. The higher the cost, the snalier the flov demanted, other things being equal. Fora road network, the demand function would state vhat flows are forthcoming on ach route in response to given transportation costs along these routes. Equilibrium is esteblished if the flows on all roads arising in response to given costs are Just of the magnitudes thet produce these sane costs. ‘The demand concept is developed in Chapter 2. It is applied in Chapter 3 to @ study of traffic equilibrium on @ highvay netvork. The stability of thie equilibrium is also discussed, and some cbservations are made about the use of the analysis in the prediction of traffic flows. Mathematical tools used in this analysis (in perticular Sections 3.1.2, 3.1.3, end 3.2.1) may also have an daterest to the methenatical econsnist apart from their present epplicetion to bighvay treffic.The analysis of deaand end of equilibrium recognizes that freedom of choice of destination, time of departure, route, end speed, within the traffic eve and general safety consideretions, are part of the services rendered by the road network. Completely regulated treffic, such es in the truck convoys of en edvencing army, can wrench higher rates of floy out of a given network than a traffic system thet secures these choices to the individual because ‘they have value to him. There 16, however, one particuler aspect of this freedom of choice which does the totelity of road users more harm than good. ‘This arises from the fact that the choice of route -- once a trip is decided on -- is quite naturally made so es to minimize cost (in terms of delay, risk, nutsance of congestion, etc.) to the individual @river who makes the choice, vithout reference to deleys caused to other users of the roads in question es a result of bis choice. We cen illustrate the effect of this circumstance by imagining completely selfless driver, vho (a) 4s fully avere of all deleys and other costs he causes others ani (b) gives the same veight to everyone else's cost of transportation es he gives to his own. Let such an ideal driver be faced with « choice between two routes, one congested, the other uncongested but With somevhat higher travel time. Then our Mr. Milquetoast Will choose the more time-consuming route if the extra time and other cost of that choice to him amounts to less than the extra delays and other costs he vould cause to others by choosing the congested route. It 46 argued in Chapter 4 thet, if ell drivers were of this highly tn- formed end selfless type, more valusble service could be obtained in the agerecete from the road network. Perhaps not much can be done sbout this particular inefficiency of the traffic system. However, it should be em- phesized that the difficulty does not arise fron free choice es such, but from the fect thet the chooser does not bear the full cost (to others as wellas to himself) of hie choice. If there vere a vay to collect tolls from the users of congested roads, at rates that measure the cost to others caused ty the average road user, vhile the revenue so coliected is used ‘to lover gasoline taxes or othervise benefit all road users, then a better use of the bighvey systen would be cbtained. Chapter 4 analyzes as @ the- oretical proposition hov the amounts of such “efficiency toll rates" vould de determined. It alsc containe sone observations es to"how closely maximum efficiency can be approached by proper choice of the toll rates on roads thet are at present toll roads, or by other vays of penalizing additions to traffic congestion. In this discussion, tolls are looked upon, not es a means of financing Toad construction, but es @ means of bringing about the best utilization of the highvey netvork. This is in keeping with the groving acceptance among modern economists of the proposition that best use of facilities requires methods of pricing the services of these facilities thet reflect the incre- mental cost attributable to each service denended by an individual user. Because of the non-linearity in the relation betveen amount of use and cost, such pricing does not necessarily produce reven’ s equal to the totel cost of operating and financing the facility. This same principle hes been applied by Willian S. Vickrey [1952] 1m formulating proposals for fares in the Nev York subway which would diminish congestion by providing incentives for treffic to shift from peek to off-peak hours and to encourage fuller use of off-peak service by lover fares at these times vhen incremental costs are low. It is lee basic to contexporary theory of electricity rates (see, e-g- E. S. Houthakier (1951]).It vill be clear thet these considerations leeve unansvered the question of criteria for extensions or improvenents of the network tc relieve con- gestion. Sone cbservations on the latter question thet flov fron the present analysis ere given in Chepter 4, Section 4.4.6, and also in Chapter 5, which makes brief mention of many unsolved protiens cf traffic theory and analysis. Bovever the main part of the presert study concentrates on vhet the economist calls hort run" problems. The roed netvork, represented by # configuration of roads and a cepacity curve for each road, is taken es given. Demand for traffic on each route is represented by @ fixed function of current cost; thet is, 4f after considerable fluctuation cost were to return to ite former level on each road, then demand would also return to its former level on eoch route. Tus the more gradual responses of demand to changes in cost that arise from relocation of residences, stores or plents are not taken into account. It 41s believed, however, that the present anelyeis can be useful as 8 starting point in developing & theory of balenced extension of the high- wey network, concurrently with industrial expansion or relocstion. The in- creased vulnerability of metropolitan areas under modern varfare adds 0 note of urgency to the developzent of such a theory, alresty highly desireble before ‘this complication srose. Differences between our studies of ratlroad transportation end those of ghey treffic reflect the different characteristics of the two transportation systens. The fact that highway traffic results from the interdependent choices each with an cbjective of his ova, gives to traffic of msny decision makers theory @ strong social science flevor. In a ratiroed system, operations areMALES Sa1E 55 -10- et lesst in principle centrally dire:teé. On the other hand, the technical aspects of railroad operation are @ great deal more complicated than those of highvey use. Hence, our exploratory study of models of certain ratiroad operations 18 sonevhat closer to physics or engineering. In order to asses: and describe the capstilities of a ratlrosd network, it is again necessary to construct simple conceptual motels of various parts of ratlrost operation. Our study, vbich makes a start with this tesk, confines iteelf almost entirely to the supply side of railroad services. One exception to this is the ai cussion in Chapter 6, Section 6.1 of the value to the shipper of speedy trans- portation, Another exception 1a the aiscussion in Chapter 12 of best routing patterns for expty care, to viich ve return below. : It 4e probeble thet congeetion phenomena, which bold the center of attention in our analysis of highway traffic, are importent also in railroad operations. Hovever, it hes appeared to the authors thet other aspects of railroad operation require pricr attention. One of these arises fron the fact thet in most ciyeunstances st 1s economical to heul cars in trains rather than individually. This introduces “he problem of “accumulation delay”, the car-time spent waiting for enough treffic to eccumalate 90 that a train can economically be formed. Another is the protlen of classification, that is, the problen of sorting cars that arrive in incoming trains or are delivered from loading tracks, so as to make up nev traine that will take these cars to the next sorting point, closer to or at their destination. The problen te how to distribute this sorting vork over classification yards in a vay that minimizes cost of classification plus the roney equivalent of accumlation deray. Basic concepts to wake possible an accurate formulation and treatment of problens of thia kiné are introduced in Chapter 7. In Chapter 8 the3-32-55 cae operations of clessification yards eve described, and simple epproximative formlae are proposed for the dependence of classification cost on the class- ification task performed. These formlae are used in Chapter 9 in e general @iscussion of the distribution of classification work over yards An earlier version of the material in this chapter and the one preceding it was presented to o meeting of the Reilvey Systens and Procedures Association, held in Chicago on November 5, 1993, and was published as an appendix to the proceedings of that organtzation/ Tue materiel is bere reused and extended vith the permission of the R. 8. P. A. Chapters 10 and 11 are more detailed studies of specific problems. Each of these chapters ignores vhat the other concentrates on. Chapter 10 48 devoted to the problem of distributing class- ifteation work between a hump yerd and a flat yard loceted down the line from the bump yard, when problems of scheduling are ignored. In Chapter 11, class- ification cost is ignored, and instead the problen cf scheduling treins between yards to minimize accumulation delay is discussed in detail for a single-line railroad, and in more general terms for more complicated railroad networks. From this summary the reader vill see that time and resources available for the study did nct permit us to construct a model that simultenecusly incorporates all the main aspects of railroad operations, on the basis of waich one could, for instance, discuss the best dovetailing of classification, scheduling and line-hauling opereticas. For that purpose, further "pertial” models would be needed first, euch as a model for the study of track capacity. In addition, considerable complications of @ purely mathenstical character would arise in the attempt to put the partial modele together into a model that vould fully express the interdependence of the mein elements of railroad operation. Tt is felt. hcvever, that the first steps on the road to a more Becknenn, Koopmans, MeGuire, and Wineten [1953].RH-LAS 5-28-55 integrated model have beer, made. and thet this in itself justifies the publication of these studies. Amore integrated model vould heve several uses. It vould help in computing the cepebilities of a given railroad network, and the relling stock requirenents of any trensportation program thet 1s within the capa- bilities of the network. It would sisc faciiitate estimating the “incremental” or "marginal" cost (1.e., the cost increase) occasioned by the rendering of an extra unit of service. The importance of the latter consideration lies in the fact that freight rates are en important elenent in business decisions about industrial locetions and about modes of transportetion used. Only if the rete on each unit of service reflects its incremental cost cen we expect that such decisions, taken by profit-seeking entrepreneurs in response to freight rates and geographical price differences. will lead to the most efficient utilization of the natica's { res-urces. It is true thet this view held by most economists) has not been eccepted ty reguletory bodies as relevant to rate making. However, the eccnomist's case is likely to remain Just @ nice pcint of theory unless the operations of railroads are analyzed t: the extent necessary to provide @ method of estinating the incremental costs of transportation services rendered. It may be useful here to rece!l the main properties cf increnental cost in the very simplest lineer model of transportation mentioned at the beginning of this intrcduetion. where both congestion and the fact that cars are lunped into trains are ignored. In this mdel "efficiency freight retes”, thet is, rates reflecting incrementel cost, are relatively low, per mile, in directions in which empty care proceed regulerly, end relatively bigh in opposite direc- tions. On routes not travelled by empty cars the efficiency freight rates Af see. for instence, J. Duputt [.6b4], B. Hotelling [1938].have intermedicte values, woich can be deterzined in the sane ceiculation by voted the best routing plan for empty curs 1s deteminecl In eny more refined model, increnental cost freight retes are likely to exhibit these main features, vith the effects of cngestion and lumpiness superimposed as modifications. It is therefore worthvhile to examine the pattern of 4 vith the movement of empty car originations and terminstions associat goods on U.S. railroads, the pattern of best routing of empty cars between origination and destination points, and the stability or variebility of this pattern between years. The examination of thie question in Chapter 12 reveals a substantial stability of beat routing patterns of empty boxcars -~ and hence of incremental ccats cf transportation of goods shipped in these cars ~~ 68 between peace-time years, and remarkable changes connected with war-time movenents cf eupplies te Pacific ccast ports- ‘Mis report hes resulted from a research project cerried out by the Covies Comaission for Research in Economics under contract with the RAND Corporetion. Tjelling C. Koopmans was the research lester of the project. ‘The several authore came to thie study vith different skills and backgrounds, end accordingly contributed in different and complementery ways to their common task. Martin Beckmann, a methenatical economist especially interested dn linear programming and economic ectivity analysis, contributed most of the chapters of the highway treffic enclysis, with the exception of Chapter 1 on capacity. Christopher Winsten, mathematician and economist with a special interest in applications of probability calculus to industriel phenomena, Y See Kocpmans and Reiter (1952], Dantzig [1951e]-5-22-55 cake contributed the anslyeie of queues reported in Cha;ter 1, and the analysis of the division of scrting vork between yards. given in Chapter 10. C. B. McGuire, econonist, vas assigned prinary responsibility for the degree of Aa ana i aC a +s Troai’an” of the models Sev: muet of Ris tine in earlier ou traffic enslys.s & its end roflrondé offi nls, to vicits tu sro records. Most of the chapters on ra‘lrosd problems are the result of joint work by McGuire and Winsten. Chapter 11 wes contributed by Koopmans. Chapter 12 vas prepared by McCuire cn the basis of earlier work by Kirk Fox, Marc Nerlove, Harlan Suite and Thomas A. Healy. The computations for a simple example of a bighvay network were prepared, and the report thereon in Sec- tion 3.3.2 written, by Goldman. ‘Tis dry emmeraticn of contributions does not indicate the extent to which practically every chepter has been effected by the tainking of all members of the group. A good deal of group discussion hes been devoted in particular to choice of ccncepte and models cf ratirosd operations. In the tons later stage of preperation of manuscript, the group met in weekly se! for criticism and evaluation of successive drafts. Final editing of the manuscript vas done by McGuire with the assistance of Jones M. Terrell. Proper acknowledgment cannot be given in this epace tc all those vho helped the authors in their project. Especially deserving of mention, how- ever, for the patient way they dealt with the authors' questions, are the folleving men in the ratlroad industry: C. H. Breshoret, L. H. Dyer. andStine of the Cuicago, Burlington, and cuincy; Arthur H. Gass of the Car Service Division, Association of Anerican Retlroads; C. E. McCarty and Re M. Zimmermann, of Potomac Yard; T J. O'Corneli and C. E. Bertrand of the Baltimore ani Chic; W. A. McClintic of the Pere Merquette Division of tee Chesapeake and Ohio; E. E. Foulkes of the Rock Islen2; end Vel Rice cf Modern Railroads. For the frontisriece. an serie? photograph of Fensen- ville Yard cn the sutskirts cf Chicago, we are indebted to the Milveukee Road 6 Commission research staff Discussions with other mexbers cf the Co and vith visiting seholers have also been stimcleting ané helpful. Among these, we wish to mention in particular W. Feller of Princeton Untversity, H. S. Houthexker, formerly of the Comission en nov of Stanfcrd University, D. G- Kendell cf Oxford Untverctty, Harry Markowite, George Dentzie, end ‘7. E. Harris of the RAND Corscretion, and Willian S. Vickrey of Columbia University. Lest-mentioned has read the entire manuscript end given the authirs the benefit cf many detailed comments. Of course responsibility for whet is cffere@ reste with the respective authors alone. If these studies stimulate otuers to improving on then, the authors will feel that ‘heir endeavor bes been fully rewarded.PART IIn most cases where an attempt hes been mate to measure the capacity of a road or intersection, this capacity has been taken to be a mimber, representing the highest possible flow of traffic through the facility being studied. Accepting this view for a moment, let us examine a particular case in some detail and cee into vhat complications we ere led. Suppor a certain unsignalled intersection {s used by eastbound ané northbound traffic only. What {s its capacity? Obviously no one number will suffice to deseribe the capacity of the intersection for northbound flows alone, igure 1 for it is quite clear that the more eastbound treffic there 18, the lest will be the auount of northbound traffic thet can get through unless this letter flow in some way dominates the intersection, ant we rule this outRet-1438 a8B-55, 72.2. for the present. Perhaps, hovever, it is possible tc express the capacity in terms of « number, say 1600 vehicles per hour, which is not to be ex- ceeded by the sum of the two flows. If this 1s so, then this capacity can be expressed in the following lensthier but more instructive wey. The cepacity te © vehicles per hour northbount ani 1600 vebicles per hour eastbound ld woe . "1500 =” soe . pall coal . wom "wo wo« . or 1600" Sa 5 aD " nos ., ‘Tais set of combinstions written out in full says precisely the sane thing as the shorter defining sentence preceding it; ve can if ve vish therefore alvays describe such capacities in terms of the various highest possible combinations of flovs. Since the set of such combinations is rather tedious to write dom, it is conventent to describe it graphically in the following way. Pigure 2Toe set of capecity flov combinstions cen be represented graphically in Figure 2 es all those poists vith non-negative coordinates x,, x, which fe on the dovnward sloping line vhose equation ie x, + x, #1600. The whole set of combinstions is therefore completely described by that line. i ‘Te capacity expression hae thus changed from a simple number to a the set of points on the 45° line. At this polot there arises the very natural question of whether the Live must alvays bave a 45° slope, or whether in fact it need elvays be @ straight line. Without further information there ere no reesons to reject the possibility of capacity curves like those in Figures 3 and 4. Where the capacity curves are of this nature ve begin to see sone of the advantages of cepecity formulations in terms cf sets of alternstives rather then single mabers. The capacities described in the last two curves can be represented dy sets of combinetions just as before, but they cannot readily be represented ina otreigktforvera vay by a aingle mmber. If we look at the points A end B in Figure 3, we notice that while both represent cepecity flow Pigure 3 Figure &RM-1483 5-12-55 wld combinations, the total flow represented by A is less than the totel flow represented by B. Total flov in these exemples is no louser an important element in capacity considerations. Before leaving this simple intersection example it is worth pointing out that the curve, or set, ve have been talking about represents capacity in the sense that it forms a pert of the boundary of all those pointe rep- resenting possible flow combinations. Thus in Figure 2, the point C with coordinates ¢ and c¢' 1s @ possible flow cumtination since the sux of © and c’ ie less then 1600,vhile the point D with coordinates @ and a’ 48 an impossible flov coubination since the sum of d@ and d' is greeter than 1600. The possible combinations are those represented by pointe on or below the capacity curve; the impossible ones by points sbove the curve. ‘Toe reader ray object at this point that ell of this elaboration has been unnecessary, because for most of the important cases the capacity curve does in fact just happen to be a straight line eloped at 45° so thet capacity expressed as @ limitation on total flov is really all thet is needed. If all of the interesting cases vere like the ones in Figure 2, the objection would indeed be vell taken. We intend to shov hovever that as scones the capacity notion 1s complicated somevhat to make 1t more useful from an economic point of view, the interpretation es e t of possibilities becomes imperative. To maxe this clear, ensther aimple and rather artificial example will be described. So far ve heve not considered the driving conditions hich the traffic will meet, even vien the flovs are possible ones. One way of introducing these conditions {ato a definition of capacity ie given in the Hishvay Cepeeity wenual ,YVvnere, very briefly: }/ Novmann end Watker (i949, pp. O-7]-conditions"; porsihle ceracity is the maxloun fow under "prevailing roadway ond traffic conde: 8"; she meximan flow short ca Eracti pacity cousing “un: ab_e éelay, hazera, cr fon t: the arivers’ freedom ts moneuver. Thus £ raffic condition specified there is a ec ng naxtour flow. Avternatively capacity may be defined as @ relation showing how traffic conditions depena St tree red green red green red green red Intervals Tigure 7 A cer arriving in the green interval will aot have to vait, but a car arriving in the red interval will heve to wait just until the end of that interval. As ve are supposing there ts no other car in the minor road in front of dt to delay it, it will be able to leave at the start of the green interval. To find the average wait in the minor road, we beve to study the dis- tribution of tke lengths of red and green intervals. ‘The pepers by Raff and Tanner do this for the case in which the arrivals in the major road can be described as 2 sequence forued by s Poisson process. The assumption that sufficiently large spaces occur between vehicles 1s the only one necessary for the minor road. Hotice that the ressoning in this case can easily be extended to the cose where the critical gap accepted varies from car to car. If we know the relative frequencies of the different critical gaps, ve cen find theRN-148S, 5-12-55 y3¢ mean deiay for each one, ani then average the results using these relative frequencies as veisht e which In fact, Raff presents empirice) evide: shows very clearly thet there 1s considerable variation in the gaps drivers consider Jong enough to allow thes to cross, so thet 6 refinement of this sort may be useful. In the case of dense traffic in the minor road, vbich ve treat later, there is no such easy generaliretion to the case of 8 vari- able critical gap, and we must for the time being be content with the approx imstion thet supposes it to be constant. Some methods of calculetion for the repeated-cycle treffic-Light case are presented by Garwood [1940-1941] and Raff [1930]. In these papers an attempt te made to deal with the phenomenon of "sluggishuess". If a line of cera 1s waiting when the light turns green, it will teke some time to clear. Belov we give a nev method of desling vith this case, which gives vs @ useful approximate formala vhen traffic is sparse, and which con be used to give results when treffic 16 heavy. XL A Model of Intersection Delays Tue resulte we bave mentioned shove for the stop-eign intersection vere restricted to the case for viich traffic iz the minor road was sparse. In this section ve give 6 method of extenting this type of mcdel to the case where the traffic in the minor road is dense, end curs ore delayed not only by the traffic in the major rosé, but by cars in front of then in the minor road too. The type of model ve éevelop turns out to be useful for the re- peated cycle traffic light case also. The dasic fact we have tried to express in the model is that a queve of care waiting to cross a road cannot clear all at once, and the longer the queue the longer it will teke to clear (the phenomenon already describedRY +1483 9-12-55 Sis es sluggishness). The reason for this effect is that the cars as they leave maintain a certsin epacing between each other. In our model ve also take account of the fact that cers arrive epeced out too. In constructing the model, @ device hes been used which may at first Aight seem to have a elightly artificial look sbout it, but which, in fact, expresses the spacing betveen traffic in a very convenient vay. We suppose that events, such as the arrival or departure of cer, can only happen at discrete pointe in time, rather as if they vere being shown by « motion picture film vhich moved in Jerks. ach of the discrete time-pointe can be Considered 9 frane of the film. At each time-point at most one car can arrive, and at most one car can cross the road. These conditions make sure ‘that traffic 4s spaced out as it should be. They also imply the restriction ‘that the minimm time spacing betveen cars arriving at and cars leaving the intersection 16 the sane. In addition ve suppose thet each time-polat ie either a red time-point or a green time-point. A red time-point is a point at vhich a cer cannot cross the atop eign or traffic ligt. At @ green time-point a car will cross, provided that car has just arrived or that one or more cara have deen held over fron the last time-point. With these conditions ve can represent 0 sequence of evente at the intersection in a very simple way symbolically. Suppcse ve represent the errivel of a car at the intersection by the symbol 1, end that the symbol © means that no cer arrives. Tuen, for example, 2 sequence of the type l1leo1LOCOO1O shows that cars arrived at the first two time-points, but act at the nexttwc. Acar arrived at the fifth tine-point, but not at the next three, and #0 ons If we represent red time-points by the symbol r, and creen time~ pointe by the symbol g, then a sequence of the form: rrrgegerre shovs the firet three time-points vere red, end they were followed by four green ones, and so on. We are primarily interested in the delay vhich cars suffer. To find this delay ve must calculate encther sequence: the gueut sequence. The queue et any particular time-point ve define, for our purposes, as the number of cars held over from thet time-point to the next. With the eimple roles of traffic behavior elven above, once ve know the arrival sequence, the red/green sequence, and the maber of cers waiting at the intersection at some initial tine-peint we can calculate the queues for all later tine- points successively. We illustrate such @ calculation below. ‘There is one more sequence of interest: that of depertures. How does the process of crossing the intersection alter the spacing of cars? The departure sequence too cen be calculeted froa the others. We can nov illustrate these sequences. The time-points ere nurbered t <1, 2, 3.see- and we vill suppose that et the besinning of the period no care vere weiting to cross.Time 1236567691011 1215 1 151617 18 Arrivals ol10010002 11020001 Red/green sequence eerrrreserrregrrre Queue held over to ooll11e100 123222222 next period Cars waiting to OL1liilz2i0 125332223 cross Depertures 010000110000110001 The cars vaiting to crose st any time-point are those held over from the previous tine-point, together vith eny car that arrives et the time- point considered. Io previous enslyeis of traffic delays, the essuzption vas made that the arrivals of cars could be considered as generated by 2 Poisson process. Tate sssumption, vhen it vas checked against observation, was found quite adequate in many cireumstances. Nov thet, for cur present model, ve have @istorted nature slightly by moking time move in Jumps, we bave to find an appropriate modification of this way of describing the structure of traffic. The modification ve use, « very close analogue of the Poisson process for discrete time messurenent, can be called the binusish process. ‘The nature of the process cen perhaps mest easily be seen by the following way of deriving a sequence from it. Suppose thet the flow of traffic is euch that on the averege 37 cars arrive per 100 time-points. Suppose ve draw numbers at rendom from the set of numbers 1 to 100, replecing each one efore dreving the next. When « muber from 1 to 37 is drawn we write down 1; when a nusber greater than 37 1s cravn we write dom 0. If, a9 obove, we consider 1 to represent the arrival of a car, and 0 the non-arrival, then the sequence of O's and 1's ve obtain in this way can be taken to representa possible flow of treffic heving the specified everece density. To obtein e different average density of traffic, @ correspondingly different classification of the numbers 1 to 100 would be used. This averege density in the minor road ve have represented by o. It is defined as the ratio of the muber of cars vhich arrive in 8 long period of time to the maxim nunber which could arrive provided the proper time spacing between cara is Mintained. Tbe corresponding quantity for the major road we bave called p. We have celculated the averace delay for the case vhen “statistical etability” has been reached. This average ie the sane as the average over & period of time sufficiently long for the particular state of the intersection at the becinning of our observation to become unimportent. Hovever, the calculations involve the assumption that congestion vill not tend to increase indefinitely. The probability model we have used has the property that this event vill in fect almost certainly not happen provided the average number of green points exceeds the average number of cars arriving at the inter- section in the minor road. If this condition 1s satisfied, the queue of cars vill certeinly venish again sni again, eveo though ot tines it may ‘uid up te @ considerable length. The critical gap also needs redefining for the purposes of our discrete model. We have called it w, end cefined it os the nucber of tine-points efore the arrival of e car in the major roai which are blocked by the close~ pees of that car. For exemple, if w= 2, the two tine pointe before the arrival of the car in the major road will be blocked, and also the time- point at vhich it actually arrives. che curves in Ficures 8, 9, and 10 oresent the reculte of the eaiculations for this model. Based on the mathenatical enalyets given in Section 1-5, _ they shov the mean delay in the minor read as e function of the trafficdensities @ and p in the minor read end major road, and the critical gep v. Fora given value of and w, os a increases, the mean deley increases, until at a certain value of @ the congestion increases indefin- itely. The intersection is not eble to accommodate a density of traffic corresponding to that value of a or greater for an indefinite length of time. ‘It 1s importent to note for purposes of analysis in other chapters, ‘that these average delay functions possess a curvature property called convexity, ‘The seme type of analysis bas been nade in Section 1.5 for the repeated cycle traffic-light case. The treffic lights are supposed to be red for r time-points, and green for g time-points. Tue density of arrivals ie rep- resented by @ as in the stop-sigr cese. As in that case the average vait over e long time period is calculated. Again congestion will certainly build up indefinitely unless the number of creen pointe exceeds the rumber of arrivals over e long period. Thus the averace delay is calculated on the supposition thet this condition is satisfied. A most striking by-product of our calculations is the adequacy of an spproximation which has been used in the past for aparse traffic. The approx- imation is besed on the supposition that the queue of cars has vanished at the beginning of each red period. Taough thie would seem a drastic easumption, the results celculated by using it turn out to be valid for neerly all the values of a, r and g for which we have cerried through the calculations. The stability condition, for queues not to grow indefinitely, 1s a < a > and the approximation is valid even for a quite close to this limiting value. 2) A definition of convexity 4s given in Section 3.15a “oy St SN 40g keys woy 399849901 sy arn8hsa ssn 403 Auta uoproassoqur -6 aundzaly sn acg Soqag weyaoeesaqur “OT aI Dn aRM-LLSS 22-22 23. The Unt form-Speed Cepacity of & Roed In discuseing road capacity ve shall first examine a perticuler type of capacity curve viich vill be called the untform-syeed capacity curve. ‘Among our reasons for giving sume attention tc this curve are 1) Ite possible usefulness in the planning of large directed traffic movements such as ermy convoys, urban evacuations, etc. 2) Its very distinct aifference from, and relation to, the more coa- plicated notion of @ capacity curve which is to follow. This difrer- ence is of some interest in itself for it denoustrates the fact that the “capacity” of o fectiity mist be defined with an eye tovard the use te vbich the facility is put. Consider a single-lane road over which traffic moves in one direction. ‘A waifomm-apeed will be seid to exist when every venicle moves at the same speed. At a given peint on the rosd, the uniform-epeed capacity at @ given uniform cpeed is defined as the maximum traffic flow (measured in vehicle per hour) vhich can pass that point ct thet speed unJer certain assumed con- ditions. Obviously flow will depend on the distance-spacing between velicles, and vill be at 6 maximun for any given speed when spacing is at ¢ minim, since flov equals speed divided by spacing. ‘The assured conditions are those thet affect the minim specing between vehicles at each unifors speed. These include not only such things as the physical cheracteristica of the rood being examined, but also sone character- fetics of the vebicle population being studied, and in eddition a statement of whether the spaces betveen vehicles shall be determined by reference to sone standard of safety, or by observing the spacing actually maintained by drivers, or perhaps in some other mamer. The moin problem favolved in deternining these cepsctties cones frum the fact that by eny realisticcriterion, the epacing between vehicles must increase vith epeed. The form this spacing function takes will seriously affect the shape of the curve relating uniform-speed capacity and uniform speed. Four ways of determining these capacities sugcest theaselves: 1) Rypothetical specing functions can be constructed ani substituted in the relation flov = Speed_ spacing to give the maximm flow at each uniform speed. 2) Bupirical spacing functions can be determined by observation of existing traffic flows, end they can be substituted in the re- lstion of method (1), 3) Empirical estinates of uniform-spesi capacities can be attempted by adrect observation of flows, by-passing a determination of spacing. 4) Experiments can be performed. To our kmovledge the experimental method, interesting as it is, has never been carried out. Zach of the others will be described below. ae the tical Funct tons A minimum "sefe" spacing function may be postulated on the basis of information ebout the distances required to decelerate vehicles froa verious speeds, and also on the basis of one's beliefs as to vhat constitutes safety. Mate hes deen the most comon epprosch.3) Without moh justification Lt ha usually been eesuned that safety requires | distance between vebicles at least equal to thet necessary to bring a vehicle to e full stope:/ ‘The mathenatical 3/ Eerrey ana Kerrey, (1945) Bess [1950] Extensive biblicgrephy in Norzann (February, 1942, p. 122]. & ‘The most notable exception tc this statement is the vork of Greenshields and Weida (1952, pp. 152-154], vhere it 18 argued thet full-etop epaciag 16 too conservative an interpretation of sefety.form typicelly given this spacing function hes been 2) a+ ba + cut voere & = average length of vebicle D «© perception plus reaction tine (2) a ce «sh, where r 10 the maximm rete of decelerstion B= epeed ALL three velues are affected by the composition of traffic (number of trucks, age of drivers, etc.). Time of day en? location affect b; end road surface, weather, and grede ant curveture of the road affect ©. Some of the most careful studies of b have been mate by De Syiva,/ end of © by Moyer! Verious values used in constructing these spacing functions ere interestingly compared by Nemmann ant Walker-/ Wetle mich dtesgreesent 16 evidert., the values a = 2.84 x 10° miles (15 feet) Q.3) b= 2.76 x10 nosrs (1 secona) e = 947 x 10 noure*/mile (1.e., deceleration « 21.5 ft./sec.2 ) are fairly typical end give an ides of the magnitudes involved. It will be seen that the "safe" trailing distance grovs more ant mre rapidly as speed increases. The resulting uniform speed capacity function vhich cen be written uw G-4) ar busc De Bylva (1937). fst Moyer [1947]. “J Wermsnn end Welker [1949, p. 120].Re U8B, 5-12-55 2125+ resches a maximum et some intermediate speed and declines thereafter. This means thet at high levels of speed, the added spacing that is necessary for 8 further speed increrse more than offeete the direct effects of speed itself in bringing about an {ocrease in flow. The curve OA'A in Figure 11 is a uniform-speed capacity curve of thie type. Flow Uniform speed Figure ll. Uniform-speed Capacity Curves In most of these studies the uniform speed correspending to the point (At in Figure 11) of maxctmm flow hes been found to be surprisingly lov, in ! the 11-25 mph ronzes? the maxim flow iteelf 1s usually eround 1800 vebicles r lane per hour! A criticism vaich might be leveled against this kind of uniform-speed capacity curve concerns the concept of safety it v Minimm safe spacing tee difficult quantity to define to start vith, and furthermore, there is ] Perhops the feeling that the epeed at which flov te maximized must de greater than 11 or 12 mph accounts for the rather high value of deceleration Siete typieal an (1-3)- a Normann and Walker [1949, p. 120].RM-1686, 5-12-55 f1.26- ample reason tc believe that drivers do not spece themselves at distances one atterpts heve been made to xl vhich are perfectly safe anyway.>” Vaile refine this concept of safety in order to secure a better correspondence between theory end observation, these ettexpts are more properly classified under the method to be described next. 1.3.2. Empirical Spacing Functions An empiricel spacing function can be found, and used in the same way as above to determine the unifcrm-speed capacity curve. One such procedure, reported by Normena, vas es follows 3a) of 6,500 vehicles recorded at one location, ebout 2,000 were traveling at the same speed as the vehicles just shead of then. These were classified into speed groups. The next step was to find for eech speed croup the mean spacing between vehicles. To ensure hovever that the mean spacing thus derived was an accurate estimate of the mean @inimi spacing for thst speed group, it vas necessary to exclude from the somple as many as possible of those vebicles vbich Just heppened to be moving at the sane speed as preceding vehicles, without in any vay being impeded by these preceding vebicles. In order to perform this elininstion the time spacing, that 4e, the pace in front of a vehicle divided by its speed, was calculated for all mexbere of the sample. 20) Normonn (1939, pP-226-227]. pf Tia.5-32-55 nn Mumber of Venieien ‘Mme Spacing Between Venicles a a 3 4 (seconds) Pigure 12. A Frequency Distribution of Time Spacings For a Single Speed Group. ‘me histogrem of Figure 12 gives a general indication of the reistive fre~ quencies of various tine epacings ic a single speed group. Since, in the cese pictured, most of the tine spacings are concentrated at the low values, end very fev are to be found at levels greater then four seconds, the in vestigators vere probebly Justified io throwing out of the sample those vehicles vith tine apacings greater than four seconds. These, they assumed, vere not traveling ot minimum specing. The sane procedure was folloved for el} the speed groups, ond the mean gietonce spacing of the reduced sample for eech speed group vas determined.F-1468 5-12-55 22.28- Spacing Figure 13. Observed Minimim spacings. Figure 13 shovs, for esch speed group, this mean minimum epacing in feet of ell venicles spaced at less than four seconds. Using the date in Figure 15, 8 uniform-speed cepacity curve was constructed vbich indicates for each speed the maximum flow possible if all traffic moved at just that speed. The resulting curve, OB in Figure 11, differs from a typical theore- tical curve, CA'A in Figure 11, msinly in indicating greater flows et the higher speeds. Notice also that the uniform speed at which thie curve attains ite maximum flow {8 higher than before. 3.3_Direct Observations of Flows ‘The uniforn-speed capacity curve might be estinated directly by fitting a curve to a set of maximums of observed flove for several different uniform speeds. The main difficulty encountered here is that very seldom ere the higher uniform speeds observed. When opeeds are high sone passing nearly alvays takes place. This éifficulty points up one of the rather artificial features of a uniform-speed cepocity function. No rods of importence areone-lane roade, yet the function is defined with the latter as a besie. A multiple-lene road is quite « different thing fron s eum of single lanes. ‘The complications introduced by passing wil) be dealt vith in Section 1.1. one of the reascns for the variety of methods used to determine untforn- speed capacity functions is that congestion often eppeared to be present when flows were far short of the maxinal levels indicated by the perticular curve being used. It vss then thought that s more careful procedure would lead to a function without this defect. But the trouble in meny cases probebly was that an average rather than a uniform speed vas being used as the independent variable in the capacity function. The difference between the two cannot be neglected, es ve shall 6 Difficulties such as these make it impossible to use 2 uniform-speed capacity curve alone to explein speed and flov limitations. There ere, hov- ever, still sone reasons for finding realistic uniform-speed cepecity curves for typical roads or pointe. Such informetion would be useful to en euthority (such es the army) which had complete control of a traffic movenent, so that all speeds could be specified. These functions also represent useful points of reference in the sense that they show the loss in terms of flow when Grivers select a variety of speeds. In addition, they vill be found useful below in the discussion of capacity concepts vbich take into account the fact that uniform speeds are uct ordinarily found in practice. Lik The Pree-Speed Capacity of 9 Rost For the reasons indicated the uniform-speed capacity curve was nev: found to be very useful. People do not all drive at the sane speed ordinarily, ‘and dn those cases where they do some of then at least wish to go fester end will pase the care shead of them es soon as the opportunity arises. TaleRB leads to @ bunching of traffic which the uniform-speed capacity curve does not teke into account. ‘The capacity totion to be described here 1s the very different one developed by 0. K. Normans and hie asecciates in the Bureeu of Public Roeds, and described in the Bishvey Cepactty Memsal.J2! por « particular roa! capacity curve 4e derives empirically vhich relates averase speed and flow. ‘Te curves vaich heve been published shov that flow increases only at the expense of @ marked reduction of average speed. Purther work is necessary efore thie mechanisn can be fully understood, but it seens pleunidle that et bigher flove more paseing per car is required to meintain a given dis tribution of speeds, thet lixtted opportunities for passing prevent the e maxim vben all maintenance of the higher speeds, end that flov reach cars are traveling at very close to the same speed, vhich then is necessarily @ relatively alow one. L.k.1 The Free-Speeg Distribution i Before discussing this metter further, a vord should be said about the way rivers’ preferences affect the cepacity relations ve ere about to discuss. Nearly every kind of capacity curve imeginable depends in soae vay on the characteristics of the veniele and driver population it pretends to describe. When this population changes, then the capacity curve also chenges and ‘the problem is to relete the capacity curve to the underlying vehicle popula- tion in some simple way. The unifcru-speed capacity curve depended on the minimum between-vehicle spacing required ot different speede by drivers, and it probably sufficed in this case to define “different vehicle populstions” to meen "different specing functions". While the populations nay have differed Normann end Walker [1949].in other respects as well, these vere not importent sc far as uniform-speed capacity curves were concerned. For the free-speed capacity curve the characteristic we have chosen to describe the vehicle population is (as the name of the curve indicates) ita free-speed distribution. A driver's desired or ree speed on # given road is ‘that speed et which he chooses to travel when “alone” on the road, that is, when the preceding car is so far ahead as to have no influence vhatsoever cn th speed of the car in question. Since the matter is discussed egein in Section 2.2.2 ve shall only say here that the free speeds drivers select probsbly depend on the physical characteristics of the road end on their stimates of the riske ant costs involved end the value they place on time. The “Aistribution" of free-speeds aver a given roed for e specified group of rivers is sinply © sumury description of the free speeds of the group; it telle us vhat fraction of the drivers have free speeds between any two giver. Limits. A grepbic representation of @ free-speed distribution is given in Figure 14 wiere the total area under the curve is equal to one end the frection of érivers with free speeds between 30 mph and 40 mph ie represented Figure 14. Graphic Representation of a Speed DistributionPM-1456, 5-12-55 fh. 3e- by the aree ABDC, the fraction with free speeds between 40 mpi and 50 mph by the area CDFE, etc. The reater vho is interested in the actual free-speed Gistributions found to prevail in certain instances is referred to the Eighway Capacity Maris). fo describe, as ve ere doing, a vehicle populetion by its free-speed distribution se very obviously an oversimplificetion; for certeinly there are many other real differences whict may be quite important, such as the proportion of trucke in the population being considered, or the lengths of opposing-lane gape densndes for passing by the drivers. Hovever the simple description vill probably do for our purposes. Whether or not more of the . characteristics that distinguish different groups of drivers should be used is @ question thet can only be decided in practice. Once the reader is con vinced of the usefulness of description by means of free-speed distributions, it should not be difficult for him to imegine how other more complicated descriptions might be handled. The Realized Speed Dist: We shall now attempt both to summarize and to enlarge somewhat upon the work of Norman and Walker in examining highway capacity in terms of speed reductions. It should be mede clear that vhile much of what follows 1s based Airectly on material in the Highway Cenacity Mogual (end related publications!) the authors of that report ere not to be helé responsible for possible misinter- pretations on cur part, ner for edditions ve heve made vith which they may not agree. ‘The description vill refer toe twovlene road vhich carries traffic in oth directions. The free-speed distributions of the two streans of traffic uy Normenn and Walker (1949, p. 52, Figure 6)- SL) Normenn [1939], [1981], [June, 1942)+. RM-1LB8 5-12-55 “2.33- Vill be assumed known, and ve shell suppose that « vehicle will move et ite free speed vbenever traffic conditions permit. Toe distribution of desired speeds will ordinarily not be the same as the distribution of actual speeds. Tor a fast car to pess a slov cer sone eupty space in the opposing lene 1s necessery. If the density of vehicles (i.e., the number of veniclea per mile of road at eny instant) in this opposing lane is high, then such spaces vill be seldom availeble, end the essing maneuver vill be delayed or prevented. As @ result, the actual speed Aistribution will differ from the free-speed distribution, the lover speeds Deing relatively more frequent in the former. Another way of looking at thie effect that heavy traffic hes on actual speeds 1s to concentrate our attention for 4 moment on a one-nile stretch of road vith unrestricted visibility. Suppose that the southbound traffic flow ‘ 4s very low, a0 lov in fact that for northbound traffic the free-speed dis- tribution is the sane as the actual speed distribution. Nov let us ask our- selves how the total sunber of passing meneuvers per hour carried out by north- bound vebiecles on this one-mile stretch varies with the level of northbound flow. Suppose northbound flow doubles. A 50 mph driver will now find it necessary to complete tvice es meny passing maneuvers over the one-mile stretch as before, due to the doubling of the flow of vebicles moving at 1e then 50 mph. But since the flov of 50 mph vebicles hes aleo doubled, thie means the hourly maber of passing maneuvers by 50 mph vebicles has increased by a factor of four. The sane holds for all speeds, and it is only a step further to the conclusion that the total mmber of passes per mile of road per hour increases vith the square of flow if the free-speed distribution recsins unchanged.RM-1438 5-12-55 Tao ghS If now the assumption of negligible southbound flow is dropped, it vecones clear that at scms level of northbound flov, the number cf north- Dound passing maneuvers required to maintain the free-speed distribution will be more than the gaps in the opposing traffic strean permit. As 8 result, some vebicies will be impeded and the realized speed distribution will no longer be the same as tue free-speed distribution. Investigations have revealed roughly the vay speed distributions change with increases in flov for some cases, ani bave shown that the actual totel number of pessings per mile of road per hour increcses vith flow up to a certain point, and then decreases gradually down to cero as flov becomes so grect thet all vehicles we forced to move at the sone epead.l5) The reeiized speed distribution for northbound traffic is clearly in- fluenced by the flovs of traffic in both éirections on the road. If north bound flow increases, maintaining the saue speed distribution requires more passing opportunities than before; if southbound flow increases, fever passing opportunities present thenselves then before, Both phenonena cause a change in the reolized speed distribution. An elegant theory of road capacity would be one which described Just thie reletionshtp. Given the two flows and the two free-speed distributions we could determine the two corresponding reelized speed distributions. With this information we would be sble to assess the effect of congestion on vehicles of each speed-class in the tvo traffic streams. Hovever, this {s cbvicusly asking tco much, et least in our present stecge of developing a body of information on the bebavior of traffic. A speed distri- ution is a rather large assexbly of information. We shell settle for e simpler, oubstitute measure of the degree to which speeds have been affected by flows. Tne measure we use is the mean realized speed. Norman's group hes in fact Normena [June 1942, p. 70]-attempted more then this by making use to somt evtent of the etandard de- vietion of realized speed, in addition to mean speed. In subsequent die~ cussion ve ehall for the most part ignore these mre sophisticated descriptions of the speed-flow mechanion. It should of course be borne in mind that here 4e a possible weakness in our theory. Practical vork may vell indicate that mean speed ie too gross e measure of the consequences of increased flov, in which case it vil) be necessary to incorporate additions! meesures such as standard devietion of mean epeed, or one of the others suggested by Normann. 1.4.5 Mean Speeds ani the Free-Speed Capacity Function Toe question now becomes, how do northbound and scuthbouné mean speeds depend on the two flows? When we move in the direction of further eimplificsa- tion we sre faced with a situation such like aiding together the two inter- section flows in the exemple in Section 1.1. Northbound mean speed depends on southbound as well as northbound flow; is it going too far to suppose that northbound mean speed depends only on the eum of the two flows? Or, indeed, + cer. we drop the final complication and say that speed averaged over both north- and scutbbound treffic depende only on the eum of the two flows? OF course these progressively simpler representations are at most approx- imations and e final answer es to which of then is best for the purpose cannot be given here. In practice the choice will be dictated by the cost of obtain- ing data, the relisbility of the resulting flow-apaed relationships in making predictions, end the consequences of errors when the estimated relationships are applied to specific problems. In any case, euch questions ae these, impcrtent es they are, need not be decided here. Tne snalysis thet folicws may te applied to eny of the i] Forman (1939, p- 226).various representstions of the flov-speed relation. It is to make thi lest point clear that we exphasite these differences. In one of the earliest erticies>! on the subject Normann chose one of the more compliceted reletionships for one particular rond ané ty the methoc of least squeres fitted a plane to a set of observations on northbound mean * speed, northbound flow, and southbound flow. Since the coefficients he estimated are of interest ve reproduce bis result: (a5) BL = Mi.g2 - .0ldlix, - .0O7Lgx, voere a, is in miles per hour ant x, and x, in vehicles per bour. This plane, shova grophicelly in Figure 15 ie on example of what ve shall call a *a ‘D 5 Figure 15 ay ‘Norman (1939, Ficure 11, p. 229].free-speed copacity function or, vhere no confusion is likely to result, simply 6 capacity function (or plane or eurve, depending on the number of @imensions involved). The term free syee4 in this use does not mean (as in , the cose of the unifcrm-speed cepactty function) thet the function applies only to vehicles traveling at free speeds; ve retain the term here only to empbasize the fact that the function 16 based on a free-speed distribution. More generally, 0 free-speed cepacity function 1e the function relating flows and mean realized speeda on e particular rood for e particuler population of vehicles. Other end simpler examples ere presented in the Hichwey Capacity voruar¥®! vnere mean apeed of all traffic on the road 1e made to depend on the totel flov on the road. Crephs of these curves (vhich in fect have usually been assumed tc be straight lines) are quite a bit essier to draw and to visualize, the number of dimensions being less. Figure 16 is one example. For reasons to be discussed belov, the curve has not been extended all the Flow Mean Speed Pigure 15. An Example of @ Free-Speed Capacity Function UE] Op. cit., Pigure 5, p. 51; Curve @ in Figure 7, p. 53. Other similar exempies are to be fount in: Ncrmsnn [June 19h2, Figure 6, p. 61; Figure &,p.63). Foruena (1939, Figure 12. p. 229). Werdrop [Feb. and Mar. 1952, Figure 1, p. 2]. Glanville [19kS, Figure 9, p. 41]. Forbes [1952, Figures 5, 6, pp. 6, 7 respectively).REA188 5-22-55 21.38" way to the flow axis, Notice also thet in this example the curve is not a straight line; we have cravn it the vay 1t is merely tc emphasize the fact that from @ theoretical point of view there ie no reason to believe At to be so. We shall, nevertheless, cften draw it as though it vere, if only for convenience. Most investigators have found thst a straight line provides a feirly good fit to observations. ‘The important characterietic of all these curves, no matter vhat their degree of compliceticn, is that they are negatively sloped; that is, mean speed decreases as flow increases. It should be emphasized that, erert from “sampling errors and errors of observation, orly points op the curve are possible! flow-epeeé combinations for the vehicle population with the assumed free-speed Gistribution. Points below the curve, such as A in Figure 16, would imply that soze rivers are not going as fest as they both can and vish to, and the width and condition of the road and che presence of treffic prevent pointe such es B from occurring. Ljbok The Relation Betveen the Free-Speed Capacity Curve and the Free-Speed yuttor Te position of @ capacity curve at levels of flow approaching zero will vary vith the vehicle populetion that the curve deserites. When very little congestion 1s present nesrly every velicle will be able to travel at its free speed. At zero flow therefore mean realized speed 16 equal to meen free speed. If for a certain road it is known thet Sunday drivers have a lover meen free speed than weekday drivers, then we should expect the cepacity curves for the two days to differ in a feshion lize that indicated in Figure 17 (essuming the curves to be of the sone simple functional form es the one in Figure 16). Here the points A and B,Flow Weekday Mean Speed Figure 17. Capacity Curves Corresponding to Different Free “Speed Distributions the mean speeds corresponding to zero flows for the Sunday and weekday traffic respectively, are elec equal to the respective mean free speeds of those two days. The cepacity curves both slope upward end to the left from these points Toe difference in capacities betveen wide roads end narrow rosds should shov up in these curves more as a difference in slope, thas intercept. Suppose an improvement program is contemplated for a certain road whose capacity is represented by the curve AB in Pigure 18. If the proposed improvenents ere Flow Mean Speed Sune Figure 18. The Bffect of Road Improvement on a Cepacity Curve.RA-1488 5712-5! o1.4~ effective in reducing congestion, a nev capacity curve CB will result which will indicate for each level of flov a bigher mean speed then before. As ve should expect, the difference 1s greatest vbere congestion is high, that is at high levels of flow. When flows approecb zero, mean free speed prevails for both curves by the preceding argunents, and if ve have reason to believe ‘that people's free speeds vill not be altered by the road improvenent then these tvo points will be the same. The type of shift described seems to agree very well with some of the results of highway studies carried out by Englend's Road Research Laboratory.~2 It ts quite conceivable of course thet free speeds will change with the improvenent. Wider rosie are very likely to cause an upward shift in the whole free-speed distribution, vith e consequent shift in the mean free speed fron B to B' in Figure 18. The capscity curve in this case might look sonething like C'B’, where the road improvenent has changed 1) the elope of the curve through its direct effect on, say, passing opportunitis » and 2) the speed intercept of the curve through its indirect effect on drivers‘ choices as to speeds. Before any further discuseion of the influence of free speeds on the slope of capacity curves we must cover a point we have so far glossed over. In Pigures 16, 17, and 16 the curves have not b extended all the way to the flov axis. If in Figure 1@ the dctted section AA’ vere aided to the cepacity curve AB, then the vhole curve would seem to tell us that, for the appropriate rosd end vehicle population, meen speed will be zero if flow rises to the level A’. But if meen speed ie zerc, then all speeds are zero and flow cennct be pocitive. Clearly, the upward extension of the curve mist end at some point such as A. Warérop, (February and March, 1992, Pigure 1, p. 2].RY-1688 5-12-55 wll Generally speaking, as flow increases frou very low levels, mean speed declines and the spread cf the realize’ speed Gietribution grove smaller and smaller. Figure 19 portrays, ine very rough vay, thie chenge in the realized speed distribution. If flow continues to increase until the point ie just reached vhere every vehicle ie treveling at the sane peed, then the endpoint, referres to above, of the free-speed capacity curve vill bave been attained. Tee mean speed at this point will, under our assumptions, be the free speed of the slovest venicze present.“ 1. viii act be less, for the free-epeed capacity curve os ve heve defined it only describes speed reductions brought shout by the absence of passing opportunities. Any reduction in the speed of this slovest vehicle, vhich bas no need to pass, cannct therefore be explained by the capacity curve we have been discussing. It ts true that flov-epeed ccmbinetions above and to the left of the free-epee4 cepecity curve's endpoint are possible, but ancther mechenism than the free ed and passing-opportunity one mist be called upon to account for them. About thie matter ve shall have a word to say in e moment when ve cone to examine the relation between the free-speed and the uniform-speed capacity curv In Figure 19 the flov voieh corresponds to the endpoint of the curve @ravn there ta attained just shove x,. The mean speed at this point is meant to be equal to the lovest speed in each of the speed distributions pictured. The speed distribution at the endpotat cannot be drawn in the picture; the whole distribution vould be lumped at one point. aol If ve reuenber that the capacity curve of Pigure 19 ie the simplified type viich relates the average of the speeds of toth north ent southbound treffic to the sua of the two flows, then the statement above is not strictly correct. Speeds will be reduced in both lanes by the increase of flow, but not necessarily to the sane lover limite. In Figure 19 the mean speed at the enipoiot of the curve should really ve regarded ss the average (weighted by the flows) of these two lover limite, viich in turn ere the speeds at the lov ents of the tvo free-speed distributionsconcn Speed Fin ay a SpE 24 tistribati = a fucw is near zero Fealizea SpeedIt is clesr that the complete specification of a particular free-speed capacity curve mst include the locetion of this enipoint representing the flow and mean speed at vhich passing becones ispossibie-“Y With Pigure 19 before us it becomes e@ little easier to cet e rough idea of how the shepe of & capacity curve depends on the free-speed distribution behind it. A free-speed distribution vith the sane mean but less spread vill meen a acre hharply rising capacity curve. Pigure 20 gives such ea comparison. A dis- tribution with 6 higher mean but with the same spread will shift the capacity curve to the right. Tate effect 16 portrayed in Figure 21. 1.k.5 Some Shortcomings of the Free-Speed Capacity Cone The importance of the effects described above comes from the fact that changes in flow mey give rise to chenges in the vehicle population and the underlying free-speed distribution. ‘The reasons for such changes ani the difficulties they occasion will becone clearer in later chapters, but one rather extrene example here may serve to illustrate the potat. Suppose on a certain road the usual traffic consists of pesseager sutomobiles with fairly high free-speeds. Tue cepacity curve for this velicle population on this road we shall suppose ie well enough known tc enuble accurate predictions of the consequences of tncreeses in flow from thin population. But if the increnent of flow fe from another population, one, say, of trucks with low free-speeds, then the capacity curve we etarted with 4s no longer the relevant one. A new capacity curve mst be determined on the basis of the new free-speed distribution, vnich nov describes the free-speeds of the mixed population of pessenger auto- mobiles and trucks. In principle this procedure could be folloved vith each nev increment of flow, but it is clear thet much of the simplicity and con- venience of the notion of a free-speed capacity curve 1s gone. In addition 2) Mormann and Welker (1949 pp. 31-33] indicete how thece points may be located in prectice by considering mean differences of speeds cf successive vehicles,RN -1N88 the procedure introduces the practical difficulties of determining just how the free-speed distribution changes at each point. The analogue of thie problem in economic theory 1s the similtaneous shifting of demsnd end supply curves. A quite similar sort of difficulty comes about if the speeds at vhich drivers choose to travel vben not immediately behind otner venicles depend on the level of traffic flov. The way we have made use of the free-speed @istribution in defining capacity curves rules this type of phenonenon out of cur theory, but it may well be too important to ignore. If increases in flow tend to slow dova unimpeded drivers then the effect ia the sane as in the preceding example; it 16 just as though an influx of vehicles froa @ “slower” population had been let into the road. The difference between these tvo sources of shifts in the capacity curve with changes in flow to thet the second refers to 8 single populetion and the first to a change in the population itself. The second difficulty could be eliminated by @ more or less compliceted redefinition of the capacity curve. We have not attempted to resolve this second difficulty and unless a statement to the contrary 16 mede it will be essuned torcughout the rest of this study that chenges of thie ind in the free-speed cistribution are neg- Ligibie. Watle for many cases thie essumption 1e quite realistic, enough zo exceptions exist for it to merit serious consideration. ~ 1.4.6 Tae Relation Betveen a Unifora-Speed Cepucity Curve end @ Pree-Bpeed Capsekty Curve ‘A nowent ago ve stated that apsed-flov combinations above and te the left of the endpoint of the free-syeed capacity curve are sometimes possible. For this to be the case the endpoint must fell belov rather than on the Cf. Section 2.1 vhere the concept of the averare road user is introduced.Fa -1388 5-12 whea5- corresponding unifora-speed capacity curve; it cannot be ebove the curve of course, for the spacing of care prohibit euch speed-flow combinations. At the rather extrene etate of congestion represented by thie endpoint all cars on the road are moving at very nearly the sane speed. Bowever, vhile @ uniform speed can therefore be said to prevail, the flow corresponding to’ this speed need not be the (uniform-speed) capacity flow indicated by the uniform-speed capacity curve. Tbis can be seen most easily if this congested situation fe pictured as series of queues of cers moving elong in both air- ections. At the head of each queue is a car with a relstively low free speed; the cars in each queue vish to pass this slov one but passing opportunities occur only rarely. Thus even though the gaps in the opposing traffic are 80 fev as to cut down passing nearly to zero, they can still be sufficient for the flow to be below the level of the uniform-speed cepecity curve. Traffic from side roads could of course enter these sepa, thus raising flow obove that level given ty the endpoint of the free-speed capacity curve. In addition, as flows approached uniforn-apeed cepacity, further reductions tn meen speed might occur through more complicated mechaniens than the one ve have cesertbea.23/ 1.5 The Delay At on Intersection Ia this section we find en analytic expression for the delay at a stop- ign intersection, and also at a repeated fixed-cycle traffic light. In both cases the model is formlated in terms of discrete time points, es explained in Section 1.2. 23) Toe work of Reuschel [1951] ani Pipes [1930] sppears to have sone relevance to these states of severe congestion.RMANBS, 5-22-55 -2 k= L With Genere? MeJor-Road Arrival Distribution Yor the arrival distribution in the minor road the assumptions ere as follows. At most one car can arrive at any tine-point. ‘The arrivals at successive time-points form a binomial sequence vith paraneter o. By thie statement ve mean then the chance of a car arriving at any particular time- point 1e a, and is independent of vant hes heppened at any previous time~ point. The discrete formation encures that cars are spaced out. Tate probebility model 4s very close to cne that has been found to give = quite adequate description of traffic. We suppose at first that the green intervals ani red intervals generated by the traffic in the major road are formed as follows: (1) The etetribution of the lengths of green intervals 16 geometric, thet 1s, the relative frequency of an interval of length x is a%"(i-n) (x = 1,2...), woere x 8 the paraneter of the geanetric distribution. (44) The relative frequency of red intervals of length b is f(b), (b= 2, 2....). This distribution {s completely unrestricted for the present (except that it will be supposed to have beth first end second monente). (444) Tae sequence of red and green intervals is such as would be cttained from @ probebility model in vbich red end green intervals were drama nlter- from their respective distributions, each draving being quite independent of other ravings. Tae red/green interval sequence generated by a tinoutal sequence of traffic in the major road, when there is a constant minimm safe interval in front of euch car, 16 s spectel case of such a sequence. After finding the meen waiting time for cars in the minor road for the general sequence specified Bbove, ve vill give the results for thet case.As wes shown above, tc find the meen vait per car in the mincr road it 16 necessary to find the mean queue length B(o,). We will find this for the case for vbich the probability mechaniex vhich is supposed to be geverating the queue has settled dom to equilibrius. Either the aystex vill do this after a sufficient time, or else the queues vill tend to build up indefinitely, ao that the mean vaiting time will become longer and longer, the later a car arrives. The theory below shows that © necessary and sufficient condition for equilibrium to be attained is thet the average muber of green time-points exceeds the everage muber of cars arriving. By q, ve vill denote the queue vitch has to weit from time x to time x +1. We will find B(q,) in two stages, first teking averages over green pointe, and then over red points. Lat the green tine-points be numbered consecutively, ty, toye-stay- regardiess of whether there i6 a red interval between them or not. Because green intervals have a geonetric distributicn with paraneter x, the probability of @ red interval occurring betveen any two consecutive tine-poiate t, and 4, in the green sequence is (1 - x), and is independent of vhere other eth red intervals are interspersed in the sequence. This is the same es saying thet the probability of one green point being followed by another is x. Define the veriables b, m the suber of consecutive red points immedietely following te) that 48, the mmber of red pointe between t, and ta.) Bz = the mumber of arrivals at reé pointe between t, and t.,) ©, $b _)s = uuaber of arrivals at t, (so a, is either 0 or 1). If b= 0, thea necessarily B,=C. Generetly, 9.) = max [(¢, + G,,,+ B,-2),0),whieh ve may also write (2.6) Soe 7% Sg 8g 24 By vhere 8,20 if ara. +B, > 0 Q.7) bead ar 4 +O, + 8, = OT ‘Thus a is generated by 8 Markoff process of a type discussed in the litereture. ‘The necessary end sufficient contition for such a process to settle aown to statistical equilitriu is that E (ay +6,) <2, Tat is, on the average, less than one car arrives per green point. The necessity {8 cbvious; the sufficiency vas show in Kendall's paper [1951]. The mean queue at green points, E (@) can now be found by a device used for ¢ sim{lar problen by Kendall. Wnen the process hns settled dovn to stetisticel equilibrium F(g..) « £(g,)+ Taerefore, toking expectations in (1.6), (2.8) B(8,) = 2 - BOO...) - BE.) and also 2 (1.9) E(82) = B(b,) since 8, *0 or 1. By (2.7)RE-1NBS, “aig (1.20) Eb, (5, 40,48.) = 0 Squaring (1.6) we have 2 ain aye eernee Qn) Goan 9g * (4. + Bg LY + 8o + 28, (a +a, + 8,) 6 8 + 2g + 2g (Og. +8, - 2) Taking expectations in (1.11) and using (1.8), (1.9), (1.10), and the further equilibriue condition B (a2,) +B (qi) ve obtain: Qe) Bi(2g +1) GQ-a,,-8,)) = BLG@,,, +8, -2)?) To find E(B.) notice that the probebility thet there is a red interval between t, ond ty (i.e., that the point t, +1 48 red) ts (1 - x), and the mean munber cf arrivals, if there is a red interval, is @ E(t), E(b,) being the mean of the distribution f(b,) frez voich the rea intervale are considered to be grav. Accordingly, (13) BG) = (2 > n) a Bld,). Similerty, by just teking expectetions over red intervals of length b, and ‘then over red intervels of all lencths, we get Qay BOD) = (-x) 0 BE) 4a - a) BD). Also(aus) za.) = 2(0?) «a Using the fodependence cf a,,,, B,, ead a,, (1.12) con be written Ra, G26) 128 (q,) +31 12 - B@,,,) - 2@,)1 28 (2 Ban) + 2B) +2 - cle, gor) ~ 2E(BQ) + 28(a,,) 2(8,) Substituting the values given in (1.13), (1.14), and (1.15) and solving for B(q,) ve get F(a - 4) fz(2) + B(v,)) Mii BASEMAN etilststststi=3) 201 au Now we mut consider the queue length at red points. Suppose” a red Snterval of length b cones betveer t, and t.,,. We cen nunter the points of the interval t,t ,....,t + The queue length Just before 8 8 ‘Be the start of the interval vill te q., and these cars will renain through” out the interval. Since b, end g, sre independent, (1-17) gives the expected size of this “initial queue” over red as well as over green time~ points. We require therefore only the expected length of that part of the queue mode up of cars that errive during red intervals. If there is on arrival at t, , it vill be in the queue at ene toyeeet) . It will thus add it to the sum of the queues over the red interval. Similerly, an arrival at *e, adds b-1 to the eum. Thus the esr eddition tc queues per red interval of length b caused by arrivals For simplicity, we shail drop the subscript g in the rest of this section. iduring such interveis is 0b) g, and the mean addition per potat in is 2 yea intervals of lencth b caused by arrivals in those intervals ie Pil A proportion a of red points liesin red intervals of length b. Tuerefore the mean addition per red point caused by arrivals during red io- tervals is ‘bf{b+] 2) (1.18) Dea BEY ae Be) (BR) + HOD) « ‘Thus the proportion of red points in the total is (1.20) (-) B(b) 1+ (1) B(d) and the mean addition to the queue per time-point ie (nla Be?) + et) 2 L+ (ex) E(b)* Aasing this to (1-17) ve get a(i-x) (B(e?) + E(v)} aii + (ix) B()] ka cree 98 the meen queue size over all tine-points.2,2:1.2 Binomial arrivars op the Mejor Road In thie section ve consider the case for waich the traffic in the major road is also described ty binomial sequence, of parameter p. In front of each cer in the major road there ie e minimum eafe interval of w time points. By this etetement ve mean that if 6 car arrives in the mejor road at time t, then no cer in the minor rosd can cross at time t-w+l, towet 2,..c.,t- That is, an interval of w points up to and including ¢ red points. Unier these conditions we can exenine the structure of the sequence of red and green intervals generated by the traffic in the major rad. The length of the green intervals has @ geometric distribution, with peraneter L-p. If ve put 1-p»% in the preceding analysis, this case turns out to be e special cose of the more general one treated cbove. The result for the mean waiting tine given by (1.21) shovs thet for our present purposes we only require the firet tvo moments of the eistribution of the lengths of red intervals. We find these belov, ond sre thus enabled to exhibit the mean vaiting time per car as @ function of the densities in the mincr ani major roeds respectively, end of w, the minimm sefe interval. This function 1a shown in Figures 8, 9, and 10. 1.5.1.3" The Distribution of the Lengths of Green Intervals. We will suppose from nov on that the tine points ere nunbered in sequence te ceeeythy Op Ly eeee FOr ortaess, 1f @ car in the major road arrives at the intersection at the time point t= t', we will sey that there ie & car at t= t'. The safe interval w is supposed an integer and ie defined as follows. Suppose the point t= 1 ie the firet point of a green interval; thea there mst be acer at t= 0, end nocersat tel, 2...w, Thepoint t= 2 16 aleo a green point if and only if there is no cer at tea (v4). Tous, given thet t=1 is 2 green point, the probability that t= 2 4s 8 green point is x= (1-p). Sintlarly, the probability thot the green interval vill continue frm t=2 to t=3 is m By induction, the probabilities of green interval lengths of 1, 2, 3..- are Proportional to 1, x, x¢).... and so must be (2.22) (Q- #8), «QQ - 8), PQ - a). end these probabilities define a geometric distribution. Now to derive E(b) and E(b), suppose t= 1 is the first point of a red interval. Thie means that there is acer at tw, but none at t «#0, 1,2, ...w-1. The red interval will end at tew if there is no carat tevel,w+2, ...,2¥. However, 4f the red interval does go on, suppose the next cor after the ont et tev igat teusx,, where 1S x, Sw. We car say that the second car contributes e length x, to the length of the interval. We can also say thet the first cer alveys contrib- utes @ length x, sw to the intervel. If the red interval contiques to e@ thira ear, we can consider the contribution, x,, of the third cer to the leagth of the red interval, and 60 or. We vill nov find the probebility thet the red interval is formed by just r cars, If there are siready r- 1 cars ia the interval thea the probsbility that there will be no more is ae P, say. Tous the prebsbility that the interval will ccntinue is 1- P. Hence the probability that the interval vill contain just r care ts (1 - P)P p, If the red interval ie fcmed by just r cers, the mumber of points it covers ie Hee ta, where xy ew and Ex, Sv, 18 2, vee rehe ra r 2 ra *Te cletribution finctioa of each x, $0 the sane for {> 1. There- fore if the musent cenersting function (m-g.f.) of x, $6 Olu), say, 1, the mm. (42,3 ..-), then, since the me.f. of x, =W is e of Xt xt see Ry is (2.25) ate and the m.g.f. of reé-interval leasth 1f the red interval can contein any number of cers is 3 gt 2 ete (1.24) xy) = LGM - pt. PH. BAY 1- GP) ¢ It is aleo necessary to find $(u). Since eae Le yl (2.25) Prob &, =x) = i Se we (1 > 2) feet xel we have y pee xt (2.26) gu) - S—_ - Diaai xel, Map L=Peeotn etd = INRe , LP aaa Hence (2.27)We nave to find E(b) < x10) ent B(b®) = x"(0). By stras forvaré but somevbet tedious eveluation ve obtain (2.28) (vo) « x"(0) = EE end (29) B(b?) = x"(0) = Putting these values dm (1.21), ve find the mean queve size per tine-point to be (2.30) nfo) 2 Gee ewe) | p (P -a) Dividing thie waitiag time by the G cars per time-point ve get (Qn) 1-P (+ wo) 9 (P-a) ao the meen vaitin3 time per car, where Pen’ = (1- 0)". Te necessary and sufficient condition for the system to settle down to statisticel emtl- dbrium ts a < (1-9). ‘Te funeticn (1-14) te the one plotted in Fisures €, 9, end 10 for verious vulues of p & and Ww.RN -1466, 5-12-55 22.56 5: ay Treffic in the Main Road If there is @ two-va) streaz jn the melo road, the resulte still apply with suitable reinterpretation of the parameters. provided both streens ore tinomtal. We cesume the safe distance for crossing, v, $e the sane for both streams. If p,. p, are the densities in the two streane, the probability thet a tine-polot will be occupied ty a car in either cf the streams is 9, +P) -p, 99 and ve cen set p equal to thie value in the formlse above. We have uct yet fitted these formlse to actual date, as ve heve not yet found ony Geta ino suiteble fom. It is therefore difficult to tell Just wuet the effects of the eimlifications we have mote will te. However, from the Gute in the pspera by Reff end Greenshields it can be seen that w may te nct conetent, but may aometines vary fairly widely fron car to cer. Tae forma mey still be fairly accurate if ve use, in place of ¥, sone parameter of the distribution of w. Previous sucsestions as to wnat peraneter to use include the meen of the w distribution (Sreenshie7ds) spi the median (Ref), but neither of these need necessarily be the best, as the following argument will show. Consider the mean watting time vnen a {s small. In this case (2.33) ze ae Pee P) epproxinstely. Expressing P in terus of p we have (2.38) Be Lasy¥ebewe bere ed ve fbe approximately. If 9 1s alec emel) then(2.38) - By (erd) approximately. When a 40 sual, there ie a negligible chence that a queue vill form. Thus if w hes c distribution, the mean waiting tine can be obtained by everaging (1.35) over the distribution of w. Tuen (2.36) = LE iw (w+1)), 2 suggesting that the constant Ww which gives the best fit is the solution of the equation vw (w+1) <8 {wv (w+i)). te Traffic-Licnts Case weaved: In thie case a red interval of length r is follove2 by @ creen tn- terval of length g tine points, uni then the whole cycle ts repeated. To find the ween voiting time, it ts necessary to find the average queue length over all tive pointe. Firet ve find the queue leasth at the start of the x" rea interval, q, 88y- th cycle ecusisting Let u, be the mater of cere arriving ia the of 2 reG interval end the cucceeding green interval. If ,,, {s the queue at the stert of the next red interval, then (2.37) Gay FFX (a, + 7 G0), u, Se Atetrtbuted over 0, 2, 2)-----) 5 +g ine binontal distri- bution with parameter a, thet ie, (2.38) Prop (u, © 0) © Gi tA Pa-ar tse.Tous the g, are generated by ¢ Merkcff chain. ‘Tue coni/tion thet tate provese saould settle coun to stetisticel equilibrium is It is simple to find a complete anslytic e-lution for the aietribution of, 4. when the system bas uttaine: statistical equilitrium, as the solution of a finite difference equaticn. However we will confine this éiscussion to the calcuistion of meso queue length ove all time-points. We vill é> this calculetion in two parts, first considering tue mean car-pointe of weiting Guring red intervals, anc then during green fatervals. For the red interval the calculation is similar to that in (1.22) above. The queue vbich 1s waiting over until the fi: t point of the interval eteys ‘throughout the interval, and thus ccutributes r E(q.) tc the average car- points of waiting durin: each red interval. A car orriving at the first point cf the interval contributes r, and as the probability of e car arriving at that point 1s a, the mean contribution to the volt is ar. Tne mean con- tribution per interval from the seeand potot is a(r,-1), ete., the contri- bution from errivele at the lest red time-point being a. 80 the totel re Saterval vaiting of cars arriving ia the red intervel averazes er red interval and the mean amount of waiting during each red iaterval by all care 10 (40) 7 [Fete] : Now we must finé tbe meen emcunt of wsiting éuring green intervals. Suppose the queue et the beginains of the green intervel ts @.. Considerthe mesn wait of cars in the queue if ell subsequent time-puints were creen. Tae time taken for the queue to diminish by ane (if it fe not zero in the firet ploce) is the amber cf green points to and inciuding the first one in which o car does not arrive; this time is thus cistrituted seometrically, with paremeter a and mean sh. Tue queue during all but tae last of Ta these time-points 4 9,; during the last time-point it .eg,- 1. The mean cer-points of waiting during thie time te thus tes ‘The tine taken for the queue to diminish by one more is distributed in toe sare way, and the queue during all but the lest of these time-poiots ts g - 1. Tf atl sub- equent tine-pofots vere green, the process would continue uot] tae queve bad venished altvgether. Tae trots vait for that time wou'd have the mean a éTy (Qu) z [& x :] oer] [rstee »] 4, zal So that, averaging over the g, Gistribution, the mean vait vould be (she) 23) [8 + (2-2) «| / However, the creen interval ie not in fact infinite, ond we must subtract the vait that would reach over into the next red interval. To a this ve subtract the wait attributable to the queue at the beginnin; of the next red ineerve:. Tate vill average (45) xia ® lg + (m-2) «| : Tous mean walt over the f! nite green interval is a(1.44) + sts] : Suppose v, Le the number of cars erriving th the x*P red interval; yet OB vey Pe Ten cea ty . sad B(q,) = B(a,) + E(v,). , ‘x Since is iacependent of g, it follove thet (.u5) E (2) = B(aR) + 2 Elv,) Bla) + BLY; Cars arrive vith frecueney a in bota red and creen dutery: E(v,) © ra. Ant since v, is binwmlally cistributed, ve have (2.48) 22) 2 ra(i-a)+ro® Tous the mecn car-polnts of siting during each vstituting these velues, (er) $e [Foe (ro) | ; Adding the anounts of waiting given by (1.20) ard (1.47) fur the red cad ireen intervals, the mean emount of waiting per cycle ts (1.48) & [ea +2 »] and the mean wait per car will be (2.49) Taye‘Thus ve cnly need to fink E(o,). It seems. however, that the simpleet way to find E(q,) fe not fron the anelytie solution. The q, eletribution can be found aumericetly fre the generating equation by a staple treretion. (The motrix is definite, oo it has to be truncated. Iv ean te jroved that this type of truncatina can still give appreximetions tu the ergeete proba bilities of the infinite motrix however). The mesn vait can then be calculeted dy the formia given. 1.6 An Aeplication cf the Intersection Model to Ross Cenac: ne bh. When fast cers ress a sioy for on a two ay. the situation shows sone rether close sin{lerities tc the case of a cer in a minor road crossing @ major rosd ut a stop eign. A fast cer coming up bebiad @ eloy car cust welt until there is 2 sufficient gap in the opposing traffic. Wien euch e gap appears it may be able to pull over into the other lane and pass. If, ahead of it, there are other cars ciso vaiting for an opportunity to pass the slow ear. then our cer will usuaily be able to yess only ofter these cther cars have done so. The relation vith the wait at a stop sign ie clear. Puseing the slow car corresponds to crossing the intersection. Toe opposing traffic. which hes the right of vay 1a ite wm lone, correszcais to the nojor-road traffic. The fast cars contin up behine the slow car eorrespcnd to the ninor- rosd traffic. And ve can suppose, ae e simplified deecripticn of drivers’ Dehevicr, that fest cars vill only goss vhen taere ic nc cor Zue to c-me in the cppceing lane for ot least some fized tine interval, which ve can call tae eriticel gap. Tue analogy te close enough to give ease hope that the quentitetive theory ceveloped for the stor-eiga case ney also be useful in giving a theoretical bests for the free-epeed ceracity curve on a two-lene highway.he 6 first. ang ,erhops rather drastic em ificeti.n. ve might euprose that in one of the innze there 0, it follows incidentally that these minimm chain suns do not contein eny closed oub-chains.) Consider yy for two locations m= i and m*J connected byaroad iJ. Extending the mintmun chain thet lesis fron j to k ty eldiag y,), ve heve o chain fron 4 to k, but not necessarily 6 minimm chain. Thus (2.2) You Sy t+ Yye To summarize: for every pair cf points 1,k there exiate a uniquely determined mumber y, , such that (2.3) Yo Vy S$ Myy Me for acne J; Ye, 7 O We next show the converse. If for every psir of points 4,k there is @ucique cumber y, , satisfying (2.3), then the Yq, Tepresont shortest asatances: (2.4) ye MD yy ty tee tag) Let 1-J'-{'-....:n'+k denote © shortest route. ThenFE 1HES 5-12-55 72.136 Yaa Yue Ey Pye ye Uy (2.9) i Yok Yee S Yan. Since yy * © one obtains by addition of these inequalities (2.8) Yo Sg yp te ae On the other hand, since the y, , seticfying (2.3) ere assumed to be unique, there mist, betveen every pair of points { and k, exist a sequence of pairs of peints starting at 1 end ending at & for each of vhich the "=" sign holds in the inequalities (2.3). Let one such sequence pe denoted 2° J" =f" = oes ah. Then en You Mage Mp Sate By definition of a shortest route, (2.8) Yay ty Stage ty y tt Sane Combining inequalities (2.6), (2.7), and (2.8) we obtain that (2.9) Yo Sage ty to a MO Gg yy * Yox)RASS 5-12-55 s2.1ke so that the mmbers y, , indeed denote the shortest distances (in terms of transportation costes). In the economic theory of industrial location the points 1 of common Yy_ fore giver kare referred to es igodistants 1f cost 19 measured in terms of distance, isochrones if measured in terms of time, and iscvectures al Af measured in terns of transportation cost 3.3 The Induced Densnd for Use of a Road Once the shortest routes for traffic betveen each pair of locations are found at prevailing traffic conditions, flow on each rosd can be determined. It 46 the eum of the musbers of trips per unit of time for all those crigin- destination pairs vhose shortest roite goes through the road. As explained more fully in Section 2.4.1 below, ve assume that the emount of flow demanded Detween any peir of locations depenis only on the transportation cost between then. But vhether or not @ shortest route goes through any given road depends on the trensportation cost on all roada thet might be part of alternative routes. It is useful as on approximation sonetimes to consider the flow oa @ given road (resulting from the denands for all trips) as e function of the transportation cost on that road only. In that case it {e implicitly assumed that transportation costs on all other roeds are uachanged, and in particular, that they remain unaffected by eny shifts of flow from the road in question to alternative routes. This is 6 pleusitle assumption only if the flows on the road considered are reletively small. ‘The fect thet there may be several shortest routes, and thet a small change in transportation cost on the rood may alter ite flow by the whole amount of flow one route, shows thet the demond function for road use 1s al Pateoder (1955, pp. 337-360]+discontinuous under our assumption that route selection Gepends only on relstive trensportetion coste._/ 2.4 The Denand for Transzortation A certein amount of ériving on particular road may of course be for pleasure's sake, in voich case it represents ultimate cousumption. Typically, hovever, the demand by drivers for the use of @ particuler road is not imnediate, but arises out of the demand for trensportetion from one location to another. ‘Tats need for transportation arises from the divergent locations of economic ectivities. In personnel transportation, the obvicue cause is loca- tional separation of reaidence, places of vork, commodity markets, and cultural facilities. Commodity transportation is promoted ultimately by the geographical @ivieton of labor. This in turn 1s based on differences in the rescurce endow- ments of regions ani on the greater econuaies of procuction on e lerge scale. Descriptive detatle on the locational distribution of economic activities fall into the dometn of econonie geography, an? theoretical discussion of these Phenomene 16 the subject matter of location theory. Hovever, our understanding of locational phenonens is fer frou sufficient for an accurste prediction of the denand pattern for transportation, given the general economic structure of a city or region. A formule has been névanced by sone ee Te eee orcs [J Tuerefore the result of the general theory of demand that the denand for the ot? commodity varies with the price of the a” comodity us the demand for nt” camodity does with the price of the m‘® conmdity hes no equivalent here. However, if traffic on road ij is decreasing with of unaffected by Ancreasing transportation costs op roai mo (i.e., if mn ig an alternative to 43), then elso traffic on roed mn cecreases with increasing transportetion coat on road ij, always holding other trenepcrtation costs constant. SE) Bg, Stewart (1950).relations vbich is moiclec after Nevton's lav of gravitetion. Economic relations according to thie formuls ere directly propertional to the algebraic product of population figures and faversely proportional to distance, suitably measured. By implication thie formla should also describe the demand for intereity and interregional transportation. This hovever seas unlikely for no sccount is teken of the specific economic structure of cities or regions. Bone interesting theoretical suggestions concerning the demand for treneportation in cities are also aivanced in the recent moncgreph by Mitchell. and Repkin [1954], Total origination or termination in an ares is related to the character of the residential end comercial esteblishments in the area. An important observation is, for instence, that origination tends to be proportional to the total floor spece devoted to camercial enterprises io a given district. Emphasis 1 given to the "Linkage" in originations of people and of commodities betveen esteblishments located in one area. 2.b.2 Tne Dement for Trips In a model which etteapts to set forth the interdependence of flovs in a netvork, recognition must be civeo to the fact thet the enount of traffic that originetes at e given point for e particular destinetion per unit of time is in generel not independent of the treffic conditions on the relevent route or routes. ‘Mais obvious principle needs careful limitation. It does not imply that the pattern of originations and destinations could not show considerable rigeity ia the short run. Io particular it does not dispense with the necessity of studying actual typicél patterns. It implies caution, hovever, ip the cousel interpretation of such orizin-destinstion patterns. [BecauseAt 4s true that such and such @ ratic of floor space to truck trips prevails in 8 given area,“ this may not prove invariant unter changes affecting traffic conditions. If the output levels of a plant closely determine its origination and termination intensity for a given technology, traffic conditions may force a change of technology or of location to meintain profits. A point often emphasized ie thet the central business districts of cities may experience a reduction of their levels of activity to the point where the denand for traffic con be accommodated ty their available road cepacity (ani parking facilities). In Line with our approach to traffic in terms of ite economic motivation, ve abel consider the denand for transportetion betveen a given origin and destination to te function of evereye trip cout between these Locations | only. | Desand must be defined vith reference to a tine period. Mov on each roed, traffic shove e characteristic veriation over time. Tais is a reflection of the fect thet the demand for transportation between locations fluctuates in various ways. For instance, intercity traffic has e pronounced weekly pottera of fluctustion vaile commuter traffic ehows extrene daily fluctuations as well. Depending on vhich types of roads end of road use one is primarily interested in, a different period is thus appropriate for the definition of demand. In any case it ie a simplification to regard denand in terms of an average flow per period of given type, as the cose may be. It is an even cruger epproximation to have this denand depend on the averace traffic con- @itions during thet period only. Hovever, simplification is the price of analysis. Let the curve representing the nurber of trips per period betveen two Locations vhich ore underteken at various everage cost levels be called the Mitchell end Repxin (1954, p. 172].RH-1458, §-12-55 72.18- @enand curve for travel betveen these locations. The curve in Figure 3 te one exemple? ! we assume here that the general price level and the income A@tetribution are fixed. By ite nature the demand curve has en upward slope novbere. In certain circumstances, when the number of trips 1s independent of traffic conditions, the curve is vertical, and demand can then be described completely by fixed origin-deetinstion figurer The notion of average transportation cost requires some attention here decause the population of road users chanzee along the denand curve. To be consistent, the average should elways be taken over the population of actual road users at any point of the densnd curve. ‘Toe demand curve may also be interpreted es a ranking of trips, where each trip is labeled by ite urgency, thet is, by the"eritical” cost level at voich it vould still have been undertaken. average transportation cost, prevailing averace cost nurber of trips per unit of tine between given trip locations: Figure 3 ig] Is economics, price or coat 4s conveaticnally placed on the vertical exte, even though in many cases, ac in this one, cost is the independent varieble.Re -LNSS 5-12-55 s2.15- tue excess of this critical average cost for only one trip cver the prevailing averece cost represents a clear gain to the ros user in question. It eppeers in the form of a saving in money cost and correepcnds to what is knovn in the economic theory of market demand as @ consumer's eurplus. Geometrically it 1s represented (approximately) by a strip extending from a horigontal line denoting the prevailing averace cost to the cenand curve vith @ width corresponding to one trip (erosshatched in Figure 3). nile ‘the actual cost for a trip need not be the prevailing average cost, so that the area of the strip may be different from the gain of the particular road user in question, nevertheless the total area betveen the denani curve and the horizontal line of prevailing average cost indicates exactly the cost saving to all road users st that level of average transportation cost. Bere ‘the benefits in money tems enjoyed by various rood users have bees added up tecitly as homogeneous ant ecmensurable. In particular it te implied thatthere are no effects of inccme differences which would render a doller saved at a high level of cost wortn more, or less, than @ dollar saved at a lov cost level. However, the equilibrium anslysie vhich follews will do vithout this or any other value Judgeent. We will refer ogain to the road user's benefit in Section 4.1.2. the form of the Genand function is dependent, enong other things, on the elternative means of transportation avatleble ni their rate structure. In general the denand for transportation betven a given peir of locations would depend eleo on the coste or travel times to end from other locations. It hos been shown, for instance “that most automobile trips vithin cities are round trips with more than one destination. Hevever, this applies to the movenent of the persons rather than those of the vehicle, which appears Lf Witehell ani Repkin (1954, pp. 39-23)-often to partake in only the initial and final phase of the journey. If intercity traffic is teken into consideration, @ merger of the possibly plural destinations into one would not seen to be © bad approximation. Similarly in the long run vhen locetionsi changes are sizitted, @ case can be mode for the dependence of dexend on transportetion cost from or to various alternative locations. But since our interest ts in the short-run phenopena meinly, this complication may perhaps be disregarded here. Funct tr epecity Functior Let us now fatroduce e methenstical notation for denand. The munber of trips per unit of tine from origin 1 to destinstion k will be called Xy,¢ for 1 not equal to k. Tee symbol - x, ve shall define to be the termination at destination k, Since terminations et k must match the sum of originations for k, ve beve Ex, +0. The number of trips at aa 8 function of trip cost will be written xy yp 6 fy u(y yds We shall make frequent use of the {averse relationship ¥, y = By ad Mate foverse function 5, , existe becsuse the demand function fy y 8 monotonic; as the trip cost goes up, the nusber cf trips decreases, if soythtng 22/ Btationarity of a y over sone interval vould meen thet desend is perfectly elestic there; a acall rise in the prevailing trans- portation cost would induce a substantial decrease in denand. This is not to be expected even in the presence of alternative means of transportation. Without restricting ourselves we may therefore assune €, , to de strictly decreasing, thet is Walle the denen for certain camodities my increase vith price in ~ Particular cireustences iovolving incoue effects, this ts not itkely to be the case vith the denand for road transportation.(2.10) ASEM CHO! wherever gj, 16 differentisble. The case of fixed origtn-destination vertical figures (perfect inelasticity) means that the craph of gy ia line and that the derivative is fins infinity. We shall now give the nctetion and summarize the relevant properti of road capacity functions. Let x,, denote flov on road J. The order of subscripts 1s immaterial here ani in vhet follows: xy) © xy5 ¥45 Yur and by, © bs, (notice the absence of 4 separating coma in the designation J of roads), ‘The cepacity function y,) = by G43) 4s never decreasing: (2.1) —iL > o a5 ‘Toe sign can hold vheo flow levels are emcll enough to make interference betveen elenents of traffic negligible. From the considerations in Section lob 4t oppeara that delays and hence costs increase indefinitely es a certain flow level xy the absolute cepacity limit, is approached: (2.32) Me myles) + sede td Toe most obvious differences betveen these tvo types of elementary deta functions, the dean function,ané the capacity function, ere 1) thet in the capacity function flow te the cause and transportation cost the effect, while in the deman3 function trip cost ie the ceuse and trips (constituting the flow) are the effect; 2) that demand is defined with reference to anyFM-2468, 5-32-55, 22,22 pair of locations vhile cepecity refers only to roais; and 3) that demand Gecresses as cost increases, vhereas in the cepecity curve, cost incresses or remains constant os flow increases. From the economic point of view, capacity and dezend appear to be pairs of opposites similar to supply eni demand. Capacity ie the “supply of trip opportunities at various costs". The analogy, hovever, is @ loose one. In particular, while under perfectly competitive conditions the supply function in a market for ordinary commodities tends to be the same as the incremental cost function, here the cepecity function corresponds more nearly to an average cost function.The discussion of capscity aré demand in the two precedinz chapters hos supplied us with sume funionental notions on traffic flow. In this chapter we propose to explain the pattern of traffic in a network from the interaction of the denand for trensportation betvee™ nany psire of Locetions ani the capacities of reads in the network. This demand is éistributed over various routes and, on each rad, over verfous free speeds. It thereby affects the treffic conditions on the roads, ani these react asain on the denend for traffic. In an ettempt to unravel these re- letionsbipa of mitucl ceterninatioa, it 1s useful te heve reference to « situstion of equilibrium. With record to a road in {eoletion, equilibriua oeans the fcllowing. At every level of traffic conditions, es mecoured by the avereze cost of transportation, e certein denani for the use of this roed 1s forthcoming. If this denend is larger than the prevailing flow . the traffic conditions get worse ani the average cost of transportation increases. Tate tends to curb the demand, perhaps to the extent thet flowe full below the initially prevailing level. Tuen traffic conditions improve azain and at the reduced mand is fortbscuing. There is level of transportation cost an increaaed however one level of flow at which traffic coulitions give rise to e demand dust equal to the prevailing flov. Tais is vbet ve shall cali the equilibrium flow. One might think of equilibritm ine networs as simply 2 state in which flows on every rosé are in equilibrium. But os ve have pointed cut, the notion of the demand fur use of any particular road ae 9 function of trons~ portation cost on that roe? only favolves ¢ simplificetion that seensinadmissible in the enalysis of flows in e network. Such @ cenand function could be cefined onzy on the aseumtion Our third flow veriekle 16 related to trip ecet through the (inverse) demané function for trenspertetion: G2 PA AMSA Finally we rectcte the definition “fy, , ctven 19 Beetion 2.3.2:" Sta ye SM G.8) Fs)Ke now have for euch of the vertabies ¥2s- Sy: Mus Mu k? Aiyk et least coe relation in which it is "expisinec" in terms of some other varieble(s). Te this a complete eyeten of conditions which under suitatie assumptions ebout the fuactivne involved == 25 (yyy) 882 By sO) oo hes ¢ unique scluticn? To ansver this question ovr systen must te broujht inte © mre concise “form. As a direct consequence cf (2-5) ent (7-8) we have (3-9) Yee 7 ye yy af Jp ell cases vhere the flow between c peir of points is zer> the second slterostive cf (5.9), vaich then holds, d.es nct fully determine the values By y Of SEP costs. Tt perely taposes en upper touni -n then. A the seme tine equation (3.7) affords a lever bound, fer it restricts the ¥4 to levele above vhich densad fs zerc. The slack which ie thus introduced the exzct vbenever flow between tvo points te zero does n> harm, fer t! velue of trip cust is irrelevant. econmically. Since the nctetice in the in vhet follows ve shall at firet Line of (3.9) will be eed frequent this firet occurrence write out in full the statements inv-lved: Yee Hye S¥ayr Hye ZO OF Me Nye Ty My a? O In particuicr, (3.9) imites the sbeence of “cress hauling’: if xj, 4, > 0 then x55, 7 0- AB e next step ve caa sibstitute for the evet varistles the corresponsing functions of the fier variat Ger eyetes then reduces to the inequalitiesG10) Bela) 7 5 Oy) < . plus the defining equations (3.2) end (3.4). Incidentally, (3.10) mey be used to find tvo expressions for the prevailing totel cost cf transjortaticn. Multiplication on beth efdes by Xyj,q O88 addition stele (.u1) sk) 7 85%) 5 Rearranging terms and using (3-4) and (5.2) ve obtata G 32 I : ~ ida, Din ) Reece Ceave ia Uete daa clic boas ua Ra The left-bond side represeats the sim of all trip costs, the right-hand ide the sum of all transporteticn costs on roads. 1,2" Existence of Solut: 1s to the Equilibrium Concitions A vell knows characteristic of the equilibria encountered in the-retical mecaanics ie thet they may be regeried as eclutions to certain extream probions, a fact vhieh hee occasionally given rise to cone speculation about nature's grand sesign. Waetever the merite of telesiozteal inter- pretatioas the poseltility cf fomleting an equilibrium in terms of max- mization 1s & useful piece cf mathematica: infcrnation. Por icatence, the eid sbriven ayoten (cs there are extremum problens for meny other economic equilibria ) fact thet there 1s a mucimum probles eseociated with the present Cf. Samuelson [1548, pp. 21-23].FEA-1LGS 512-55 WiLL clive us @ proof that there extet sclutions te cur Orasicer the function "Le Aosta +13) ee J x8) Bf, Poy (3) ax. ik © 1s 0 (Econsatets are varned thet this 1s uct to te interpreted as consumer surplus: The term on the right hus se its kernel the sverace, rather than the incresental cost to users e:Jiectivel;.) Here the factor 2 cones tn row because we wish tr sum cver every rou but once. witle exch rosi is denoted by two peire of indices, 1j and Ji. Differentiate with respect’ tc from (3.4) end (3.2). The Nyy yx After wubstituting for x,y and x, result ts 3.14 a Ez ara a (3.24) Be eye) 7 Sy nGy yd GOs yk The necessary first créer conditions for a neximm are thet the derivetives. of HK be non-positive in a1] directions ia which x can change without tok vecontag negative. In the intericr of the positive orthant (xy > 0 for ell {J,k) ve therefore hove the ueusl conditicas that the derivatives shall vanish. vhile at a point of the boundory where some y,, = 0 the deriva- 15% tive with respect to eny vanishing x,,, must be non-positive: oH 3H (3-15) i: = 0 if x, ,>0 ant 5 — £0 if «x, =0. Bp 135k Le ie We nov recell the exietence cf sheslute cepseity limits ¢,, es expressed in releticn (2.12). In the closed set defined by the two conditivns, OS yy ML SA Sey, For sme suitable 44), the function) de continuous since it iso sun f incefinite inteprele Bley ee of Riemann interable (because cectionatiy euntinacus)functions. We con- clude that H assunes ite oncimm at sone print. While thie point my still depend oa the ,,, it will ust co eo df a, 46 sufficiently close to ¢,,, because cf (2.12). At that point -f moximm the necessory ay? conditions (5.13) must be satiefied. Bt there conditions cre iaentical with (5.10). Taerefore there must exist £ aclition te inequsiities (7.10) and the supplementary defininc enstions (3.2) anc (7.4). Of ecurse, E vas just so constructed thet the firet cruer coniition: for a maximum (5.15) become identical vith the (necessczy) equilibrium condition (3.20). 3.2.3" Unigueness “f the Solutions In preparetion for the questicn of vhea a solution tc cur equilitrium crnditions 1s unique, ve sbcli first show thot the functiin E is ecneave, ne defined below. Consider tue quadratic form of its eecond Gerivetives (sametincs known with a as the Heseian) at e poiat tins the oraments in 344k place of the former xy, ,- Ke saci use the stvi-ue ctbrevistions tgs? aan Elie 8 y5,8) > Ey) (528) , 7 yaad by # Sat sayy We have (3.27) Egg atta ag tase 1<5 :3 (5.8) Zs The inequalit; holés identically ia the 2%... ond yyy se inverse 5 function and capacity by, on inerecsing denand 5,,, 19 2 decreast function. This shove that the Heseian is neztive eam‘ -Jefinite for all Nyyur A Gifferenttable Anction vhose Hesetan is nevetive sent-écftatte fe knova to be 2 concave function.” By this. one meano vhe f:licwing: f.r every 8. C 2 H(x) + G - 2) BG). Incidentally, a fusction {2 estles convex if tte nasetive ts concave. Next we prove the fsLloving useful Jemma. Leos: Let Flu) be 2 concove function of e set of veriables sesyug)+ Sufficient for F(L°) = max Fle) ts that F vey, “p20 be cifferentistle at w= u° ans that H > aw y aan o if uw 0. an {} uuu Proof: Borrowing direct y fron Kuhn and Tucker [2991], we firet prove thet for every concave function F(u), eifferentieble at v°, if 2), (22) F(x) ¢ P(e?) + ERE (uy r J Bonsesen and Feache? 1934, pr. 16-29)-voere FO denstes ME) | por eny 2. Oa <1. eh r ate r iu? + a(u - u®)) - F(u®) TH (3.22) P(e) - FO) < by the definition cf a ccncave functicn. Hence in the limit. es e-30, (3.23) F(u) - Flu) ¢ in + (a - uf) We proceed to the proof cf the lemsc proper. By (3.23) and (5-20). tn that order, ve have for 21 ¥, 20 (3-26) Fw) > Fu) - Lee. (, r Te) 2 Fle) Tt follows that F(u°) = Mex F(u), which proves the 20 2 ‘It fe easily verified that (5.20) with F end corresponding to H and x1; ¢s resrectively, 4s nothing but cur old equilitriun c:ntition (5.10). We conclude that every solution of the equilitriun eonatttc yields 0 maximum of H. The converse fact, that every maxinum (1a fact every extremm) of H yielde © eclution to the equilibriun condition (5.10) 46 eiready known to us. From this end the ecncavity of H it is nov seen thet for every tvo solutions x, , ant %,, of (5-10) the td Lineer coubinations ax) + Oe) hye for O 0 for ell i,k, 1). Trerefore Bx, y= 0 ond 8x4, = 0 for all 1,k,1J. That ie the cars originations end flove cn roads ere unique'y determined. Under vhat conditions does the uniquenese of these varizbles imply that flowe x1, , dlatinguishes by vestinaté.ns are ais> uniquely deter mined? Tais 4s the case when no neutral circutts are present that is, vhen the nets % leyout end flo conditiins ere such thet no two routes detwees any single pair of locations are equally attractive ets of CI y end in Demand How do the equilitrium flows change in response to shifte in cepacity functione or in denend functicne? Ap increase of capacity, brought about by construction cr inprevenent " in (3.33)+ a Samuelson O9L6-47F, (1948, pp» 36-39)RYe1685 Sa32-5 23-17- Abstrect ! sign applies if esne BS >0 ant gy te negative definite, because M is then strictly concave in x,. Iba eintier vay ve find that (37) Hix? + 8x9 7°) - 1, P+ BP) > © Yeceuse, (xo + 3x? 1° + S72) delng the eoluticn ts the pr:blen vhen the 3 are modified, the firet tern is ereater than and the second term paren: Jess then H (x° + 82°, ° + 3f°). ‘The sum (3.36) and (3.27) yields the desired inequality (3.33)-5-12-58 +3.18- In the present case constraints (other than the restriction to positive values) do pot occur, ao the J, ir (7.33) are zero. Therefore the inequality (3.33) when applied to the functior H of (3.50) becomes simply ZL (oxy + Ox, 4) Bey y Ox oi Ot on 6.38) te ke aes pI (2g + Bey 4) Bays xy +E or, Oy 2 Bx, > 0 1k i -3 2 &, moe os vhere E corresponés to L, anive cenonit D and put n= 37, since ik r a nov qy, ie zero vhenever n fr. The ">" elternstive holds if some Bez, +0 oF some Bx, y $0, provices that all ey , <0. If only one capacity 1s changed and demand remains uncharged, then all” the bey yy Bf, , are zero and all the ba,, and 8,5 are zero except J those for some particular iJ. In this case (3.38) becomes (3.39) [-b ey +o. bey -be,, |, 20 Suppose we have single capacity increase; e capacity change will be unequivecelly an increase only if (3.40) Bay, <0, bb, 1) pF Bey + BBL, <0. Otherwise the traffic required to bring ebout sone particuler level of cost ‘then before. Since x,, end + Sky) ere non-negetive, td expression in (5.39) {8 non-negative. and positive when bx,, $ 0.We co clude that bx, 20. (Equality cecurs wuen x,, = 0, the rosé vas useless t. beciz with.) eas the re: cms of che pattern ne vould expect. 3.3 Stapiiity occurrence if it An equilibrium would be Just on extrene state 4f ch 4; tensed to restore vere no f res were not stable, thet equilibriuz as socn as sma?) deviations fron it .ccurred. sider Besites tais stability DELAty the large”, thet is, the reach ap equilibrius from eny initial position. This letter type of stetility te interesting not onty Deceuse it caverns the capacity of the systex t- reach a new equilibrium pusiticn after scene big chenge, tot eles bece.se one mey went ty ace an analog of the adjustnent process as a mthod of computing en equilibrium sclution by successive epprximations. 3.5.1 Adjustments of Road Users The study of stebility hinges ultinetely on the questicm of kw rood users edjust themselves to changes, thet is, licw they adapt the extent of their travel ty roed ani their choice of rovtes to varying traffic conditions. This however is cne of the big urknwms of rcad~aer behavior, so that at the present stage only conjectures are pescitle. Tkrough a eiaple and pluusitie mogel cne can get a rough picture cf the minizun of conditions that aust be net in oréer that the adjustnent process shovlé c% In our model ve shell essume simply thet those rad users who ¢> not just continue in their previous choices will choose thetr routes cnd the number ave im co ecsttound direction (i.e. from higher numbered points): thet averece roade tetveen a oair of trarsportetion cost Decczes the came cn either rvad. If one rosd is ehorter but f smell capacity, rium due to tae mere crowiedR-LBE 5-12-55 the. conditions on the shorter road would Just comversate for the grester cpercting he ehort cost on tbe longer read. Ccucesticn sn es, by éiscouraging furtber treffic there. hes led tc c Giversior of some traffic to the long road. This too mey be called an ellccetion of r-ad space. There is nothing inevitetle about this perticuler allocation; a éifferent Gistribution could have been achieved by er vehicles with odd-nust case of ered license plates to the longer route. sey. In the equilstrium distrituticn. as Pigou has pointed out, it would be possible, a few cars from one roea to the other, greatly to leeeen the trouble of ériving for those left on the c.ngeetes road, while orly si1 ntly ineressing the trouble of ériving alons the less congested read. "Im these circunstances chosen meosure cf differential taxation assinst [tue congested road] 6 righ’ woulé create un ‘ertificiel' situation superior tc the ‘natural’ one. But the 7 en. h/ wnat is the basis of measure of differentiation must be rightly ¢! this eccamic value Judent? Tae Meaning of Effictency fs long es the cenand for trenszortetion te en given points or the Genand for net trenszortstion of commodities from euch locztion is fi ed in- dependectly of flow conditions. the choice of ¢ criterion of efficiency, seems obvious: the aistnizatio of the egeregate cost t. all reed users. Eut the of the time losses ond very notion of aggregete evst involves on eval dare spent by various classes of road users. Tne vey in waich we have defined our denané ené capacity functions inslies hovever that we shell treat ryone like the average road user. There ts e in this mode. for e G ad users. eifferenticl evaluation of the costs ant tenefits L/ Piece, (1920, p. 25].& 4 & A single exception is to be found et the end cf this chs;ter, in Section 4.5, vbieh explains esne of the consequences cf differentiel tine vacuation. For our anclysis it makes no difference however what the reletive veichts are that we ettseh to the money cost, time, and risk cf the average road user. Fer, as we shail see these weights dc not effect the relevant properties of the cost function ve use, so that the principle of our conclusion helés quite ca independently of the valuations inv: At this point 1t may be remarked that en econcaic valuation of risk ie implied in meny decisions that ¢ road user must make, snd te equally indis~ ensable in en efficiency azelysis from the peint of view of society as & vacle. Now any valuation cf risx implies in effect the eetting of money values upon busan life end hesith. This is indeed unevoideble whenever economic activities invclve dancer te human life end hesltn. Since a strict adherence to the “safety-firet" principle would mean the standstii1 economic activities without whick modern industrial societies cculd not exist asc ious ever, b.dy makes 9 camprozise, uy or uneonsctousty, whic. imelies certain high, but finite, valuations of tunen life end health. 1 each © portation is ac exception to this. ction of a free speed, a choice of the pectability of fatel accidents is implied. Since cpereting cost and tine cost alec vary vith free speed, and since presumably the individual seeke bis cptimm, the increase of the probability of fate acctdents with en in- itaneous decrease crease in free syeed must be ct least comensated by the sim cf cther cet. Knowing how thie prebabilit) e speed pernits us. aepents on % tu principle, to estimete an upper bound to the value of life as implied in the individual's ériving behavior. There can be no question thet inéividus vebs are only vaguely aware -f the velue iuplicattons cf the: or regardingrisk, and thet tne values revealed by some types of driving spear socially unacceytable. Let vs consider first the case wuere trancporteticn cust fs identified’ with travel time. Ke have meationed in Section 2.2.2 the fect thet for every road user. except peseibly the s.owest vehicle, trave! time increases vith Flow. This etateneat can te cherpened vith regard te the rate -f increase, end.ve shell need the ;r.perty we are about to cbserve as a prerequisite for the applicability of cur mathemstical exalysis. It is clear that the tine (ger ventcle) spent waiting ia queues bekind elover cars increases et an increcsing rate with flov. et least if the camposition of flow by free-s: classes renzins rersonatly constant. It follows thet the weighted sum of all trove) times the agcrecate travel tine rust Increase with flow et @ . A function vhese rate of increase is itself , Anzrescing or constent. 16 2aLled convex.® S> we may stete thet agsregete rate which te itself increesin, time cost is ex increasing ani ccavex function of flow, regerdiese of the ton. veighte used in the azgres Now whatever the firm of the operating cost and risk function. this result reneins valid so long es time ie va-uei highly relative to money and risk. But in fect both operating cost ané risk cost tend to be increasing and conver functions themselves. For suall flovs both money cost ena ris ion to the increase tn the number per vehicle incresse approximate.y 11 of passinge per venicle per mile. Risk is, excest for a fixes ecmpenent, olve eheted with aroximity to cther cars, ani peseing maneuvers i the closest and most frequeat physical approximation of vehicles t> eech other. Fer ¢ straight read wita very light traffic passing mey take ylave without ey ned is the came thing es the converity ccncert defined ter de e;plie¢ t. € function of one varisble. 2/ Cenvextty sv deft in Section 3.1.5" ifpumer the cx usually required ia their execution, on, the level required at sn equivalert steady eseed. At amell flows this rete cf poseing 1s a convex function cf flow. At large flovs cn the cther hend, the money equiva’ent of the incresse cf travel time with re- ariaticn y of rapnituce then an; geet to flow is of 2 much bighe: money cost and risk. Teerefore, even if in ap intermediate renge -f flows the rete cf net increase cf ecst vith flow mey drop slighty, we ehoulé not comsit any serious error in assuming that the acgresete transpertation cost ona road (per wile cr fr its entire iength) is en increarin; and convex function of fiov thr-ughcut the vhole renge of flows. If demand is flexible, thet is, if traffic generstion depends on treffic coniiticns, then c.et minimization is not the vhole story of efficiency, for it leeves undetermined the level of denand at which cost is minimized. What the benefite that arise from the setis- ig needed therefore ie some meas: n of & denand for rosd use. t discussion of denend, attention was dram to the meaning In our fiz of the area under ¢ deneni curve az bounded by the horizcntal at the pre- valling level of trip st. Tris ares measures the excess cf the mexinal cost that rosd users would bave been willing t> spend on the current trans- s cver the amount of ccet that is actually incurred. Tats portation activiti f the alventages (ofte expres: ens to be en adequate representation different for different trize between the eane points) that accrue to road ther recom veers expressed in comparable terms, mone). It is ft ded by the fact that ibis of 2 ¢ in ecvnonic theory as 2 measure of rare£ discussion! All of this ts not to say reassure in practice, tut rether thet it is edequete frem = cone of view. How : menticn should be made again as to make DE and BE the ewe Jength. Now if in fect DEE were the averaze-cost curve the rate of fn7 crease of totel cost when flv wes OX vould be civen us by the bisecter DG which ty definition bisects FE F directly evove X (note that Fi« HE becavee DE * BE). Eut since the true everoge-cost curve ard this hypothetical one are tangent et B. the rates f growth of total at X must be equal. Therefore the true fncrezente?-cost curve must nos through the point K. XH then 4s the incrementa.-cost when the flow is OX. Tre curve senerated in this voy will nt generally be a straight line. Nevertheless. wits increnental-ccst curves our assertions in the previous parcgrashs renein valid. 4.2.2. Private Cost end Scie: Cost Let us turn beck from the geometrical argument to the essnonic phenomens. wact accounts for tue failure of on equilftrium brcught sbout by free fo- cost? Since every dividual decisions to achieve minizization of tot dndividual minimizes bis ow. cost, the failure must ite with the allo: point the question: des of total cost to the indfvidual read users.a road user's shure -f the cost match bis contribution te the totsl neurre? by traffic in the road systent the onswer very simpy is no if we look at the everage cost cf trans- portation on a riad befere ani efter adgition of ¢ vebicle. From a certaio flow op. each elditiorci vehicle causes some delcy and risk to the others present for vhich it des not bear the cost. To be eure, im bis ove turn this rad user will euffer deiajs and costs from ary further vebicles thet might be added. But to the marctnel road user, who is just at the point of indifeerence os tc whether tc use this road cr an alternative one, his cvn cost is not a sufficient de’ rrent, because it dces nt contain the comnts be inflicts on the other reed users if be ahoulé cno.se the mre congested ative Fras Keignt hes put it for the cese of tw) alter wme congestion end interference resulting fran the elditicn of any perticular truck to the strew of traffic on the narrow but good read affects in the some vay the cost end cutyut

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