ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY IN

LAKE ERIE USING GIS METHODS

A Thesis Presented to

The Faculty of the

Fritz J. and Dolores H. Russ

College of Engineering and Technology

Ohio University

In Partial Fulfillment

of the Requirement for the Degree

Master of Science

by

Mark A. Hoover

November, 1997
 111

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to thank all those who supported me through my graduate studies and
those who contributed to the research and development of this thesis. I wish to extend
eternal thanks to Dr. Tiao J. Chang who provided his guidance and knowledge for this
thesis, for his guidance and assistance throughout my graduate studies. I would also like
to thank Dr. Kenneth B. Edwards and Dr. Tingyue Gu for serving on my examining
committee and providing me with comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank
Timothy A. Bartrand for his helpful suggestions and patience over the past several years.
Finally, I would like to express gratitude to my parents, Mark J. and Judith C., for their
love, support, and encouragement for the past 25 years.
 IV

T ABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• III

T ABLE OF CONTENTS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• IV

LIST OF TABLES • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• vi

LIST OF FIGURES • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • viii

LIST OF SYMBOLS •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• xi

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1

1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.2 Nature of the Study 3
1.3 Objective of the Study 6

CHAPTER II SELECTED LITERATURE REVIEW •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 10

11.1 Fundamentals of Limnology 10
11.2 GIS and Water Resources Applications 20
11.3 Zebra Mussel History and Biology 30

CHAPTER III THEORY AND METHODOLOGY •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 34

111.1 Data Reduction 34
111.2 Regionalization Using Kriging Estimation Technique 36
111.3 The GeoEAS programs 44
111.3.1 GeoEAS Models - An Overview 45
111.3.2 Grid Resolution 48

CHAPTER IV RESULTS AND ApPLICATIONS ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 51

IV.l Data Retrieval 51
IV.2 Bathymetric Map of Lake Erie 53
IV.3 Regionalized Water Quality Parameters 55
IV.4 Dissolved Oxygen Concentration 74
IV.5 Depth to Mid-Metalimnion 80
IV.6 Energy Storage Analysis 85
 v

CHAPTER V CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 93

Vol Conclusion0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 93

V02 Recommendations 00000000000000000000000000000000000095

BIBLIOGRAPHY •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 97

ApPENDIX A WATER QUALITY DATA FOR 1985 102

ApPENDIX B WATER QUALITY IMAGES PRODUCED IN THIS STUDY ••••••••••••• 110

 VI

LIST OF TABLES
Page

Table 1.1 Facts and figures of physical features of Lake Erie 9

Table 111.1 GeoEAS models and their equations 46

Table IV.l Data availability for January 1980 to December 1993 52

Table IV.2 Estimated plane areas and cumulative volumes at various depths of Lake
Erie 86

Table A.l Temperature for April 1985 102

Table A.2 Temperature for June 1985 (epilimnion layer) 102

Table A.3 Temperature for June 1985 (metalimnion layer) 103

Table A.4 Temperature for June 1985 (hypolimnion layer) 103

Table A.5 Temperature for August 1985 (epilimnion layer) 104

Table A.6 Temperature for August 1985 (metalimnion layer) 104

Table A.7 Temperature for August 1985 (hypolimnion layer) 105

Table A.8 Temperature for September 1985 (epilimnion layer) 105

Table A.9 Temperature for September 1985 (metalimnion layer) 106

Table A.l 0 Temperature for September 1985 (hypolimnion layer) 106

Table A.II Dissolved Oxygen for April 1985 107

Table A.12 Dissolved Oxygen for August 1985 (epilimnion layer) 107

Table A.13 Dissolved Oxygen for August 1985 (metalimnion layer) 108

Table A.14 Dissolved Oxygen for August 1985 (hypolimnion layer) 108
 VII

Table A.15 Total Calcium for August 1985 (epilimnion layer) 109

Table A.16 Total Calcium for August 1985 (hypolimnion layer) 109

Table B.1 Images produced for 1980 ..... 0 0 • 0 •• 0 • 0 •• 0 •• 0 ••••• 0 • 0 •••• 0 •• 110

Table B.2 Images produced for 1981 0 0 •• 0 0 •••••• 0 • 0 ••••• 0 • 0 •••• 0 •••• 0 • 0 110

Table B.3 Images produced for 1982 0 ••• 0 0 • 0 •• 0 • 0 •••• 0 ••• 0 •••••••• 0 • 0 0 • 110

Table B.4 Images produced for 1983 o. 0 •• 0 0 0 •• 0 ••• 0 ••••••••••• 0 •••••••• III

Table B.5 Images produced for 1984 0 •••• 0 •• 0 • 0 •••• 0 •••••••••••••• 0 0 ••• 111

Table B.6 Images produced for 1985 0 •••• 0 •••• 0 •• 0 0 0 0 0 •• 0 •••• 0 ••••••••• III

Table B.7 Images produced for 1986 ... 0 • 0 •• 0 • 0 0 •••••••• 0 •••••••••••• 0 • 111

Table Bo8 Images produced for 1987 . 0 • 0 •••• 0 •••••••••• 0 0 0 •••••••• 0 •••• 112

Table B.9 Images produced for 1988 0 0 • o 0 ••••• 0 0 •• 0 •••••• 112

Table B.lO Images produced for 1989 0 ••••• 0 0 •• 0 •• 112

Table B.l1 Images produced for 1990 0 0 •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ••• 112

TableB.12 Images produced for 1991 0 ••••••• 0 •••••••••••••• 0 ••• 113

TableB.13 Images produced for 1992 0 ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 113

Table B.14 Images produced for 1993 0 •••• 0 • 0 •• 0 •••••••••••••••••• 113

 VIII

LIST OF FIGURES
Page

Figure 1.1 Map of Lake Erie and surrounding area 8

Figure 1.2 Bathymetric map of Lake Erie 9

Figure 11.1 Zonal structure of a typical temperate lake 13

Figure 11.2 Typical stratification behavior of a temperate lake 14

Figure 11.3 Typical annual stratification cycle of a monomictic, temperate lake such as
Lake Erie 16

Figure 11.4 Dissolved oxygen (saturation) as a function of temperature 18

Figure 11.5 Changes with depth for temperature, dissolved oxygen, and carbon dioxide
for a temperate lake during summer stratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Figure 11.6 States affected with zebra mussels and adjacent waters for 1988 and May
1997 31

Figure 111.1 Stratification of temperature for April (1988-93) 37

Figure 111.2 Stratification of temperature for June (1980-93) 37

Figure 111.3 Stratification of temperature for August (1988-93) 38

Figure 111.4 Stratification of temperature for September (1984-93) 38

Figure 111.5 The six step process in the regionalization analysis for Lake Erie ..... 41

Figure 111.6 Procedure for running the GeoEAS programs 43

Figure 111.7 The four theoretical models available in the GeoEAS programs 47

Figure 111.8 Results of the grid resolution study: high resolution grid, medium
resolution grid, and low resolution grid 50

Figure IV.l Bathymetric map of Lake Erie produced with ArcView GIS 54
 IX

Figure IV.2 Temperature levels for April 1985 58

Figure IV.3 Temperature levels for June 1985 in the epilimnion layer 59

Figure IV.4 Temperature levels for June 1985 in the metalimnion layer 60

Figure IV.5 Temperature levels for June 1985 in the hypolimnion layer 61

Figure IV.6 Temperature levels for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer 62

Figure IV.7 Temperature levels for August 1985 in the metalimnion layer 63

Figure IV.8 Temperature levels for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer 64

Figure IV.9 Temperature levels for September 1985 in the epilimnion layer ... '.... 65

Figure IV.I0 Temperature levels for September 1985 in the metalimnion layer ..... 66

Figure IV.ll Temperature levels for September 1985 in the hypolimnion layer ..... 67

Figure IV.12 Dissolved oxygen levels for April 1985 68

Figure IV.13 Dissolved oxygen levels for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer ..... 69

Figure IV.14 Dissolved oxygen levels for August 1985 in the metalimnion layer .... 70

Figure IV.15 Dissolved oxygen levels for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer .... 71

Figure IV.16 Total calcium levels for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer 72

Figure IV.17 Total calcium levels for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer 73

Figure IV.18 Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for April 1985 .. 76

Figure IV.19 Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for August 1985 in
the epilimnion layer 77

Figure IV.20 Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for August 1985 in
the metalimnion layer 78
 x

Figure IV.21 Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for August 1985 in
the hypolimnion layer 79

Figure IV.22 Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer for August 1983 81

Figure IV.23 Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer as a percentage of total depth
for August 1983 82

Figure IV.24 Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer for August 1991 83

Figure IV.25 Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer as a percentage of total depth
for August 1991 84

Figure IV.26 Hypsographic curve of plane area for Lake Erie 87

Figure IV.27 Hypsographic curve of cumulative volume for Lake Erie 87

Figure IV.28 Water density as a function of temperature 88

Figure IV.29 Seasonal energy storage and release for Lake Erie 91

Figure IV.30 Comparison of energy storage and release of various years for Lake Erie
......................................................... 91

Figure IV.31 Energy storage from April to August in each of the stratifying layers in
Lake Erie 92

Figure IV.32 Energy storage from April to August in each of the stratifying layers as
percent of total energy storage in Lake Erie 92
 Xl

LIST OF SYMBOLS

DO Dissolved oxygen

T, Temp Temperature

dT Incremental temperature

dY Incremental depth

E Expectation of variables

z*o Estimation of Z;

a Kriging estimate weight

x Spatial location

Point kriging estimate at location x

Semi-variogram

Lagrangian multiplier

Variance of the estimation

h Distance between pairs

a Distance corresponding to a (dependent on model type)

Ca Total calcium

oo., Dissolved oxygen at saturation

DO(%) Dissolved oxygen in percent saturation

DOkriged Dissolved oxygen concentration producing via kriging analysis

ilE Energy storage due to temperature changes

 XII

m Mass of water of each layer

p; Density of water

VL Volume of water in a stratification layer

C, Specific heat of water

~T Temperature change between two time intervals

MJ Mega-joules

epi Epilimnion layer

meta Metalimnion layer

hypo Hypolimnion layer

 1

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Water quality is an important component to understanding the health of a body of

water. Striving to survive, an ecosystem depends on the essential life giving properties

that a body of water provides. A water's ecosystem is inhabited by aquatic wildlife and

plants. If the water becomes unfavorable for its habitat, then the water becomes

essentially a poison to its inhabitants. Water is not only essential to an ecosystem driven

to survive in the water, but to an ecosystem which inhabits the land surrounding the water

body. This ecosystem includes wildlife, plants, and human beings that dwell on the land.

As wildlife that live outside the water boundaries, mammals, birds, and even humans

need the life giving properties of the water for food or drink. If an essential ingredient of

life such as water is poisoned then life that depends on the water will be inherently and

adversely affected.

Bodies of water constitute oceans, seas, lakes, estuaries, reservoirs, rivers,

streams, ponds, and wetlands. In order to understand the health of a body of water, the
 2

inquirer must know what parameters can be used as indicators for assessing the health of

a water body. Common water quality parameters such as temperature, dissolved oxygen,

pH, suspended solids, turbidity, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chloride, and

hardness (calcium and magnesium) are used to gage the water quality in fresh waters.

Other parameters such as salinity, conductivity, and bacterial activity are further used in

the analysis and study of fresh and saline waters.

There are three disciplines that deal with the study of water. Oceanography covers

the study of oceans, the open sea, and their phenomena. Oceanography combines the

disciplines of geography, geology, physics, chemistry, marine biology, and meteorology.

Oceanography is important to shipping, fisheries, and climatological studies. Limnology,

closely related to oceanography, deals specifically with the study of fresh waters such as

lakes and ponds. Limnology is also commonly referred to as "inland oceanography"

(Golterman, 1975). Finally, hydrology is the study of water as it passes through and over

the land areas of the earth and mainly concerns the phenomena where water falls to the

earth as precipitation and follows its journey back to the oceans. The three sciences of

oceanography, limnology, and hydrology are closely related fields as they relate to the

study of water and its never ending cycle as it passes through the atmosphere, land, and

living organisms. Due to the spatial distribution of water on the earth's surface and its

interactions with the lives in and surrounding those waters, an intelligent tool that
 3

can spatially reference information associated with water and its surroundings would aid

the discipline.

A Geographic Information System (GIS) is a very useful tool that can be used to

represent spatially referenced information in the real world. The initial cost and

development of a GIS database may be expensive initially, however the benefits that a

GIS database can offer are extremely vast. A GIS allows the user to make updates or

changes in the existing database quickly and easily. A GIS is poised to the problem

solving of the real world with its Boolean based logic that offers the user true or false

algorithm in a graphical representation. The power of a GIS relies on its visual and

graphical representation of output derived from the original database (Sheppard, 1995). A

GIS is so designed that it can be easily integrated with other programs so that a link can

be established with a model. Once the link is established, the model and the GIS work

interactively back and forth to solve an assigned problem given to it by the user.

1.2 Nature of the Study

This study consists of analyzing water quality in Lake Erie using regionalization

methods. Teoh (1990) used a regionalization method to determine drought severity levels

in the Scioto River Basin. Posa and Rossi (1991) modeled dissolved oxygen levels for a
 4

small bay in Southern Italy. However, very few studies have taken on the task of studying

a lake as large as Lake Erie, the eleventh largest lake in the world by surface area. Due to

the size of the lake, water quality data collection by a single person is unfeasible,

uneconomical, and unrealistic. Therefore, water quality data used in this study relied on

varied agencies and organizations that have collected data on water quality for Lake Erie

in the past. Water quality data was obtained via E-mail from the International Joint

Commission, which has access to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA)

STOrage and RETrieval System for Water and Biological Monitoring Database

(STORET) and the Canadian equivalent, Environment Canada. The geographical

coverages of Lake Erie were obtained over the Internet from the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Medium Resolution Digital Vector Shoreline Data

Dictionary. The nature of a GIS requires that all data be in a digital form. Proper data

formats will be discussed later in Chapter III.

Limnological practice suggests that due to stratification effects, lake waters tend

to split into three separate and distinct layers. This is especially true in the summer

months in a temperate climate such as that which exists around Lake Erie. For the case of

Lake Erie, summer stratification occurs during the months between mid-June to

November (Home and Goldman, 1994). The boundaries between each layer change

continually as solar radiation effects, weather, and wind mixes the lake waters from the

warm upper layer to the cooler lower layer. Due to this phenomenon that occurs in Lake
 5

Erie, data categorization must reflect the changes in the summer stratification. For

example, it would not be prudent to group together data that measured water temperature

at the lake's surface to water temperature at the lake's bottom especially when a 20°C

difference in temperature can exist. Therefore data classification takes into account the

limnological phenomenon that occurs in Lake Erie.

The Laurentian Great Lakes consisting of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie

and Ontario were formed approximately 10,000 years ago, at the end of the Pleistocene

Era, from glacial ice that moved over the continents of North America (Home and

Goldman, 1994). They, along with their connecting channels, form the largest unfrozen

fresh water system in the world. The distinct shapes and features of the lakes such as

Lake Superior's wolfs head shape and the land mitten formed by the boundaries of Lakes

Michigan, Huron, and Erie can be seen as far away as the moon. The Great Lakes, which

cover more than 94,000 square miles of water while draining more than twice as much

land, hold nearly 6 quadrillion gallons of fresh water. An equivalent depth over the lower

48 states would result in approximately 9.5 feet of water. The Great Lakes system supply

about 20% of the world's fresh water supply and 90% of the U.S. supply (GLIN2, 1997).
 6

1.3 Objective of the Study

Few studies have been conducted on regionalizing water quality of lakes,

especially the size of that of Lake Erie. A map of water quality parameters has many

advantages in that it provides the user an instantaneous visualization of the conditions

present in the lake. The development of a database for Lake Erie water quality which

include temperature, dissolved oxygen, and total calcium, a regionalization method for

spatially interpolating water quality, and conversion to GIS images for the purpose of

mapping and spatially analyzing water quality in Lake Erie is the objective of this study.

Mapping water quality in lake waters has been performed in the past mainly by

producing contour maps, which can be difficult to read when there is a lot of information

that the map contains. However, a graphical image produced by a GIS will provide the

user an easier visual inspection of the water quality conditions of the lake for the desired

time period. The time periods for the study were dependent mainly on the available data

and the nature of when the data were originally collected. The time periods of the data

had goods records between the months of April to September, with the months of April

and August being the most consistent. Data collected was for the years 1980-93.

The study area consists of the entire waters of Lake Erie. Lake Erie is bounded by

Ontario, Canada, to the north, Michigan to the west, Ohio and Pennsylvania to the south,
 7

and New York to the east. Lake Erie receives inflow via the Detroit River from Lakes St.

Clair, Huron, Michigan, and Superior. Lake Erie outflows at the Niagara River and

WeIland Canal where water flows into Lake Ontario to the St. Lawrence River and on out

to the Atlantic Ocean. Lake Erie is the fourth largest of the Great Lakes by surface area

and smallest by volume. Lake Erie is also the warmest and most biologically productive

of the five Great Lakes, and its walleye fishery is widely considered one of the best in the

world (GLIN1, 1996). Seventeen metropolitan areas with populations over 50,000 are

located within the Lake Erie basin. The basin supports over 11.5 million people, largest

of the Great Lakes. With a water surface area of nearly 26,000 km 2 and an average depth

of 19 meters, Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes and consequently warms

rapidly in the summer and frequently freezes over in the winter in parts of the western

basin. The western basin is the shallowest of the lake with an average depth of only 7.4

meters and maximum depth of 19 meters. (GLNPO, 1995). Table 1.1 gives other facts and

figures of the physical features of Lake Erie. Figure 1.1 is a map of Lake Erie and

surrounding area. Figure 1.2 is a bathymetric map of Lake Erie downloaded from the

Internet site of NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

 c7

Ontario
/

New York

Michigan

o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers

Figure 1.1. Map of LakeErieandsurrounding area.

00
 9

Table 1.1. Facts and figures of physical features of Lake Erie.

Length 241 miles 388km
Breadth 57 miles 92km
Average Depth 62 feet 19 meters
Maximum Depth 210 feet 64 meters
Volume 116 mi' 484 krrr'
Water Surface Area 9,910 mf 25,700 km 2
Drainage Basin Area 30,140 mi? 78,000 km 2
Shoreline Length 871 miles 1,402 km
Elevation 569 feet 173 meters
Retention Time 2.6 years
Population U.S. (1990): 10,017,530 Canada (1991): 1,664,639

- -63 ~6Z ~.'.oL~-~··~~-~--;6:f-~·~·· :-8.0 : :- .

:. .'ll' .':.' '.: : : degre~s of lo~gitude : : :
: Lake Erie Bathymetry : : :

.T' ': ' ': : ; (.I~~D.~~~~~: ~: l.\l::SlnlaJl)----.

·· . ..
·· ..
.

.: Tol~~
: /~.. ~.

+: :
: 4)
. .

: .

Figure 1.2. Bathymetric map of Lake Erie (from the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental
Research Laboratory, http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/dataleri_bathy.gif).
 10

CHAPTER II

SELECTED LITERATURE REVIEW

11.1 Fundamentals of Limnology

To understand the physical processes that occur in lakes and ponds, one must

understand the fundamentals of limnology. Limnology as a legitimate science has only

come into its own only in the past century. Although researches on biological organisms

inhabiting lakes have been conducted since the 18th century, it was not until F.A. Forel,

who studied not only the biological, but also the physical and chemical characteristics of

Lake Geneva near the Swiss city of Lausanne and termed his research "Limnology" near

the end of the 19th century (Schwoerbel, 1987). Meanwhile in the United States, E. A.

Birge and Chancey Juday began to study the lakes of southeastern Wisconsin. These two

researchers are largely responsible for the birth of limnology in North America. They

established a research station at Lake Mendota near the University of Wisconsin, which

became a center for classical research in the field of limnology (Schwoerbel, 1987).

Temperate lakes are characterized by their surrounding climate. Often, moderate

rainfall and forested lands envelope temperate lakes. Temperate lakes also endure a cyclic
 11

action of warm and cool temperatures, where a 20°C difference in temperature is not

uncommon between the winter and summer months. Temperate lakes are also known to

contain chemical constituents of nitrogen and phosphorus. Tropical lakes on the other

hand, are characteristically known for their warm temperatures throughout the year.

Temperatures above 25°C year round are not uncommon for tropical lakes. Low

temperature values for tropical lakes extend to the warmest temperatures experienced by

temperate lakes. Tropical lakes are known for their bacterial diseases such as malaria,

schistosomiasis, and onchocerciasis. Tropical lakes are often located around remote areas

such as the arid climates of Africa and the humid jungles of Southeast Asia. In contrast

temperate lakes are located in agricultural and urban areas such as that found in and

around the Great Lakes region.

Water covers approximately 70% of the earth's surface, with 94% found in the

oceans and 2% fresh waters, with the remaining 4% consisting of polar ice caps and

groundwater (Schwoerbel, 1987). The Great Lakes comprise 20% of the earth's fresh

water supply (Home and Goldman, 1994). Water levels in lakes fluctuate over time due

to climatic, agricultural, and industrial effects. Climatic changes stem from increases in

mean temperature levels that cause increased levels of evaporation of the lakes, forcing a

reduction in the lakes levels. Agricultural effects have greatly affected lake levels due to

diverting inflowing waters for crop irrigation (Home and Goldman, 1994). Industrial

effects are similar since water are diverted for the cooling processes that are required by
 12

many manufacturing processes. Together, these effects along with chemical

contamination, have forced careful attention of the uses of the earth's fresh water.

Solar radiation supports much of the aquatic ecosystem of a lake by heating and

lighting the water. Light which penetrates the lake waters, causes the lake's water to heat.

Heat, along with wind mixing, causes the lake to undergo thermal stratification. Zones of

light based on the amount of light penetration are shown in Figure 11.1 below. The surface

of the lake is split into two zones. The Littoral Zone is defined as the region from the

shore to an area extending out to a depth where light and warm surface water extends to

the lake bed (Home and Goldman, 1994). This layer will be later defined as the

epilimnion layer. The Pelagic zones extends beyond the Littoral Zones. The upper, sunlit

layer of the water is known as the Photic Zone and extends from the lake's surface to

where light dims to 1% of the light at the surface (Home and Goldman, 1994).

Photosynthesis, the process by which plants synthesize carbohydrates from carbon

dioxide and produce oxygen, occurs in the Photic Zone. The layer below the Photic Zone

is known as the Aphotic Zone and extends to the lake bottom. Due to minimum light

occurrence, photosynthesis does not occur in the aphotic zone.

 13

littoral Pelagic littoral

Zone Zone Zone
I I I
II II

I ! warm, upper
Photic layer
_._._._ Zone _._._._._._._._._._

---------:~~~~-------­
~

Figure 11.1. Zonal structure of a typical temperate climate lake

(modified from Home and Goldman, 1994).

Thermal stratification, as mentioned above, is a result of solar radiation heating

the lake's waters. Stratification occurs annually as the winter and summer months pass.

As late spring and early summer nears, heating in the lake occurs, causing the water's

density to decrease. When coupled with the effects of wind mixing, the water splits into

three distinct layers in the summer. Figure 11.2 shows typical summer time stratification

behavior for a temperate lake with moderate depth. The warm upper layer is termed the

epilimnion layer, the cool, bottom layer is termed the hypolimnion layer, and a shallow,

transitional layer where the greatest temperature drops occur is defined as the

metalimnion layer or the seasonal thermocline (Home and Goldman, 1994). The

thickness of the epilimnion layer is important ecologically because it determines the

 Incident light 10 1 0/0
01 50 100
II I I
· Increasing Temperature

('""

/(
Temperature I
Photic --/ } Metalimnion
/;'"--
Zone (thermocline)
.I::.
0.. I
Q) I
o I
0>
C r
"Cii I
CO
Q)
L- f
U Hypolimnion
.£ I
I Layer
Aphotic I
Zone I
I
I
J
I

Figure 11.2. Typical stratification behavior of a temperate lake.

~
 15

amount of aquatic activity such as plant and animal growth (Fee et al., 1996). The

thickness of the epilimnion also depends on the size of the lake. The epilirnnion layer is

thicker for large lakes than is for smaller lakes (Fee, et al., 1996). Figure 11.2 also shows

the photic and aphotic zones where incident light reaches 1% of that at the surface. The

thermocline layer is not fixed in depth, meaning that as the water temperature increases

and the water becomes more and more mixed as the summer months grow longer, the

thermocline layer will actually descend into the lake's depths. This is illustrated in Figure

11.3. As summer gives way to autumn, the lake will tum over and the lake is completely

mixed (little or no stratification). This stage will remain through the winter months,

where freezing can occur, until the spring weather starts the cycle over again. The

processes described above and in Figure 11.3 are characteristics of a monomictic lake or a

lake which mixes only once a year. Other classifications for stratification are dirnictic

(mixes twice a year), polymictic (lake mixes many times throughout the year), and

meromictic (lake is too deep for mixing to occur from top to bottom) (Home and

Goldman, 1994). The Great Lakes are monomictic lakes except for the western basin of

Lake Erie in which it is classified as polymictic. For the case of Lake Erie, the western

basin's, average depth of7.5 meters, entire depth can be heated to a point where little or

no stratification occurs in the summer, and is likely to freeze over in the coldest of

winters.
 16
a.} Spring (April) b.) Summer (June)

c.) Summer (August) d.) Late Autumn (November)

6.) Winter (January) f) Spring (April)

Figure 11.3. Typical annual stratification cycle of a monomictic, temperate lake such
as Lake Erie.
 17

Wind movement causes lake circulation and when combined with heat generated

from solar radiation produces thermal stratification. Currents are responsible for the

distribution of energy, momentum, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and algae (Home and

Goldman, 1994). Wind setups are such that wind blows generally from west to east and

thus generating currents that circulate the water from west to east near the lake surface

(GLIN1, 1996). Near the surface, water will generally tend to move in the direction that

the wind is pushing, however near the lake bottom water movement will generally be in

the opposite direction of the wind movement, thus the circulating effect in the lake's

depth (Home and Goldman, 1994).

Oxygen and carbon dioxide concentrations are closely related in lake waters since

they are used or produced in respiration and photosynthesis. Dissolved oxygen is an

important component of water habitat. It is consumed by animals in respiration and

produced by plants in photosynthesis. Cold, oxygenated water contains less than 5

percent of the oxygen contained in the same volume of air, and decreases with increasing

temperature (Home and Goldman, 1994). Figure 11.4 represents dissolved oxygen as a

function of temperature in waters with salinity near zero parts per thousand. The main

mitigating factors affecting concentrations of dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide are

temperature and rate of consumption and production (respiration and photosynthesis).

Figure 11.2 shows that with increasing depth temperature decreases. Since temperature

decreases, one might expect for the dissolved oxygen concentration to be higher at
 18

16

14

12

~ 10
E
~'"
Q)
eo
~
>< 8
0
~
DO = -6E-05r 3 + 0.0071 r 2
- 0.3931 T + 14.57
Q)

~
0
Vl 6
Vl

CS
4

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Temperature, °C

Figure 11.4. Dissolved oxygen (saturation) as a function of temperature with

salinity = 0 ppt. (data used to produce chart taken from Metcalf
and Eddy, 1991).

increasing depths, when in fact the opposite is true. Figure 11.5 shows the relationship

between temperature and dissolved oxygen with increasing depth. Note that since

dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide are closely related they are near mirror images of

each other. In Figure 11.5, the dissolved oxygen levels are high in the epilimnion,

however, due to the productivity in the epilimnion the dissolved oxygen levels are low in

the hypolimnion (Home and Goldman, 1994). Due to the living organisms present in the

epilimnion, they will inevitably die and sink to the bottom and the hypolimnion where

decomposition occurs and thus dissolved oxygen levels decrease. Calcium is another

important chemical constituent in living organisms. Many vertebrates,

 19

Increasing Temperature, 'Dissolved Oxygen., and Carbon Dioxide

···• .
..
··· I
: Free carbon dioxide Dissolved j EpiHmnion
··· oxygen
.I
··· J
·· a/a
··. .~
.~.~

. /.""
} Metalimnion
•-.
.
·
-,
/ Temperature

···· !
····
· ,. I
Hypolimnion

····
•
I
··
··· .;
,
·.... •

Figure 11.5. Changes with depth for temperature, dissolved oxygen, and carbon
dioxide for a temperate lake during summer stratification (modified
from Home and Goldman, 1994).

invertebrates, and mollusks require significant amounts of calcium carbonate (CaC03) as

a sketeltal strengthening agent.

The temperate climates that dominate the Great Lakes region provide for an

environment that is rich in industrial and agricultural activities. There are growing
 20

concerns that these activities are taking their toll on the Great Lakes and the harmful side

effects that these activities will have on the future of the Great Lakes. Mortsch and Quinn

(1996) performed several climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes region to

understand what effect human activities can have on the region. Their study concludes

that higher air temperatures will result in higher rates of evapotranspiration, which will

result in higher soil moisture loss, decrease in runoff and an overall decline in lake levels.

Warmer air temperatures will lead to warmer water temperatures, affecting the thermal

structure of the lake (Mortsch and Quinn, 1996).

11.2 GIS and Water Resources Applications

There are five areas of water resources and environmental engineering that GIS

can be applied towards (but not necessarily limited to): watershed management and

characteristics, stormwater and surface water runoff management, flood and floodplain

management, nonpoint source pollution, and water quality management. In each of these

five cases a model was developed to interact with the GIS database to simulate a desired

parameter so that predictions and management decisions could be made.

A Basin Characteristics System (BCS) was developed by the United States

Geological Survey (USGS) using a GIS. There are four main steps in the creation of the
 21

BCS as described by Eash (1994). First, four digital maps (ARC/INFO overlays) are

developed from cartographic data sources. Assigning attributes to the digital maps is

performed next. Third, 24 of the 26 basin characteristics are quantified from the digital

maps. Finally, the remaining two basin characteristics are quantified from the

precipitation data sources (Eash, 1994). The two basin characteristics derived from

precipitation data include mean annual precipitation and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation

intensities. The basin characteristics are split into two categories: characteristics that are

measured or observed (referred to as primary basin characteristics, 12 in all), and

characteristics that are computed by the system (14 in all). The four digital maps

represent: drainage divide, drainage network, elevation contour, and basin length. These

maps are produced from USGS Digital Elevation Model (DEM) or Digital Line Graph

(DLG) data. An example of some of the attributes that are assigned to the BCS include:

drainage area, basin perimeter, basin slope, and channel length. The basin characteristics

are derived from a set of programs developed by the USGS that works with the GIS.

Once the BCS is established, the primary characteristics are compared with the known

results for the analysis of the BCS. The BCS provides accurate results for 11 of the 12

primary basin characteristics. Due to the limitation of the DEM data, the BCS had

difficulty quantifying basin slope. Incorporation of a GIS into the development of the

BCS greatly reduces time required for data input into the system and quantification of the

characteristics. Increased accuracy is achieved through increased accuracy of the original

cartographic and DEM data maps that were used in the preliminary process.
 22

GIS is also a useful tool in the development of hydrologic response units (HRUs),

which are characterized according to altitude, slope, aspect, land cover, soil type, and

climatic patterns. An HRU is the response that a particular land unit has to precipitation

or snowmelt. Digital data is then incorporated to develop a GIS database and HRU

classification through the use of eight thematic layers: altitude, slope, aspect, land cover,

soil, geology, LANDSAT images, and hydrography (Jeton and Smith, 1993). Various

techniques were then developed by using the vector and raster data and a GIS to define

the spatial variability of watershed characteristics and to partition the watershed into land

units (HRUs).

A watershed's response to changes in climatic conditions can be simulated

through the use of a model that takes advantage of GIS's vast capabilities of data storage,

manipulation, and graphical representation. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

(PRMS) is a model that computes and simulates daily water balances and streamflows for

a watershed's tributaries based on climatic data inputted into the system (Battaglin et al.,

1993). The streamflows resulting from the PRMS model can then be entered into other

models to assess downstream water conditions for further management decisions. The

PRMS model uses the GIS to acquire and manage large amounts of spatial data and

outputs graphical results that are easy to visualize.

 23

GIS is also an economical stormwater management tool for NPDES (National

Pollutant Discharge Elimination System) regulated municipalities (Pearson and Wheaton,

1993). The CASC2D model, which is compatible with a raster based GIS, was developed

by Julien et ale (1995) to simulate spatially varied surface runoff. There are three major

components of the CASC2D model: (1) infiltration, (2) overland flow routing, and (3)

channel routing. The objectives that this model hopes to attain are: spatial data handling,

hydrologic modeling, accurate flash flood simulation, and visual representation. With the

implementation of a raster based GIS, each raster cell is assumed homogenous with one

representative value for any hydraulic or hydrologic parameters (Julien et al., 1995).

Infiltration is modeled by CASC2D using the Green and Ampt equation. Input data

required for infiltration are raster maps of textural classification and initial soil moisture

deficit. Overland flow is modeled using the two-dimensional continuity equation and

momentum equation along with the Manning's formula. Input data required for overland

flow modeling are raster maps of topography, retention storage depth, and surface

roughness coefficient. Channel routing modeling is achieved through the use of the one-

dimensional continuity equation and the Manning's formula. Input data required for

channel routing are raster maps of drainage cell locations, channel geometry, and

Manning's roughness coefficient. Input data files are raster based maps derived from

DEM, DLG, Soil Conservation Service (SCS), and LANDSAT data utilized by the GIS

linked Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) (Julien et al., 1995).

Rainfall data are also raster maps of rainfall rate from either weather radar or space time
 24

rainfall model sources (Julien et a!., 1995). After independent testing and calibration,

researchers concluded that the CASC2D model consistently performed well compared to

the Snyders Unit Hydrograph and the SCS HEC-1 methods (Julien et al., 1995). The GIS

link allows access to the simulation while still in progress through the advantage of its

visual display. After the simulation, relevant information can be superimposed onto a

general planning map for future use (Shiau and Landsiedel, 1995).

New directions in floodplain management have initiated the development of

major databases of floods and general basin information. The National Flood Insurance

Program (NFIP) needs greater coverage of its flood-prone area maps (Galloway, 1995).

The Interagency Floodplain Management Review Committee has suggested the

exploitation of new sciences and technology such as GIS to support the development and

analysis of floodplain management systems (Galloway, 1995). The Omaha District of the

U.S. Army Corp of Engineers have developed an early warning detection gage that

detects rising water levels along rivers or streams for floodplain management (Nelson,

1992). If several of these gages are established along the reach of a river or stream, the

data from these gages can be fed into a computer database that will monitor the water

levels for flood warning purposes. Once completed, the GIS can access the database and

simulate the affected areas located in the floodplain. The GIS early warning detection

system can be used to quickly and effectively evacuate flood-hazard areas. The GIS can

also be setup with a model to simulate the amount of rainfall required to flood certain
 25

areas in the floodplain so that appropriate actions can be taken to prevent loss of life and

property.

Rifai et ale (1993) defined nonpoint source pollution as a result of operations on

extensive land units which were difficult to pinpoint and eliminate since the pollutants

travel overland before reaching surface waters. Also, the nonpoint source pollution is

affected by storms, geographic and geologic conditions, and varies greatly over time. The

GIS utilized by Rifai et ale (1993) for the Texas Galveston Bay National Estuary Program

helped in mapping the area's geography, land use characteristics, computing nonpoint

source pollution loads, and visual representation. With the system in place, Rifai et ale

(1993) were able to pinpoint the areas within the watershed that contributed the highest

nonpoint loads entering Galveston Bay. The water quality parameters that were analyzed

by the model were total suspended solids (TSS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD),

total nitrogen (TN), fecal colliforms, and heavy metals. The nonpoint source loads were

calculated using the parameter's typical loading concentration multiplied by the surface

runoff from the particular area where the load originates. Highly populated urban areas

were determined to be the main contributor of nonpoint source loads for all parameters

entering Galveston Bay (Rifai et al., 1993).

Adamus and Bergman (1995) developed a nonpoint source pollution model using

a GIS package for the S1. Johns River Basin in Florida. The Pollution Load Screening
 26

Model (PLSM) uses the ARC/INFO GRID to calculate annual runoff and pollutant loads

for any point in the area. Annual pollutant loads are functions of runoff volume and mean

pollutant concentrations found in the runoff (Adamus and Bergman, 1995). The PLSM

estimates total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), BOD, TSS, lead, and zinc. Model

input consists of data layers (current land use, future land use, soils, rainfall, and

hydrologic boundaries), runoff coefficients, mean runoff load concentrations, and

stormwater treatment standards. The future land use data layer and the stormwater

treatment standards are used together because of new regulations stipulating the treatment

of stormwater effluents. The model performs calculations on a cell by cell basis. It

calculates runoffby applying annual rainfall data and runoff coefficients to a cell. It

calculates nonpoint loads by applying runoff to the load concentrations. Results show

identified problem areas contributing the highest nonpoint source pollution to surface

waters. The GIS software allows users to make a quick assessment of the problem at hand

and allows planners to make appropriate decisions to solve the problem.

Another approach developed by He et al., (1993) integrates the Agricultural Non

Point Source Pollution Model (AGNPS) with GIS to concentrate on the estimation of

sediment yields of nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural runoff into the Saginaw

River and Bay. AGNPS is a single storm event based model used to simulate runoff,

sediment and nutrient yields in surface runoff from agricultural watersheds. The model

operates on a cell by cell basis which is suited perfectly for a GIS. The AGNPS model
 27

requires the input of 22 parameters including cell number, receiving cell number, SCS

curve number, land slope, slope shape factor, field slope factor, channel slope, channel

slideslope, Manning's roughness coefficient, soil erodibility factor, cover and

management factor, support practice factor, surface condition constant, aspect, soil

texture, fertilization level, fertilizer availability factor, point source indicator, gully source

level, chemical oxygen demand (COD), impoundment factor, and channel indicator.

Thematic data that were used for integration into the GIS include land use/land cover,

hydrography, watershed boundaries, topography, and soils for the watershed. Once the

AGNPS and the GIS were interfaced, the GIS was used to guide the user and derive all 22

input parameters. The GIS aided in the efficient production of the AGNPS parameters

that otherwise would have taken much longer to produce. The GIS was used to produce

spatially distributed estimates of peak runoff, erosion (overland and channel), sediment

yields of nitrogen and phosphorus (He et al., 1993).

Unlike most models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was

designed so that it can be used in any watershed (Srinivasan and Arnold, 1994). SWAT

predicts the effect of management practices on water, sediment, and chemical yields from

ungaged rural basins. The major components of the SWAT model include: surface

hydrology, weather, sedimentation, soil temperature, crop growth, nutrients, pesticides,

ground water flow, and agricultural management practices. Data maps of weather, land

use, topography, and management practices are utilized by the SWAT model. The main
 28

GIS link to the model is the GRASS GIS link. The GRASS package is raster based GIS

software. The reason that makes SWAT unique is the individual modules that were

developed with the SWAT model. These modules are categorized as hydrologic tools,

database access tools, and aggregation tools. These modules stand alone from the model

and allows the SWAT model to be adapted to any watershed. The SWAT/GRASS system

reduced input preparation from a couple of weeks to just under four hours for a watershed

of the same size. Results obtained from SWAT showed that simulated values are within

12% of the observed values (Srinivasan and Arnold, 1994). SWAT simulates

precipitation, surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and ground water flow. The

SWAT/GRASS system simplifies the model operation and allows for management and

land use decisions to be made faster and easier (Srinivasan and Arnold, 1994). Current

data collection methods and planning processes may not be able to keep up with the new

water quality regulations coming into effect (Neukrug et al., 1995). With the aid of a GIS

system, managers will be able to make changes to their database quickly and easily and

allow for the timely decisions of water quality management to be made.

GIS has shown that it can be a reliable tool for the management of surface water

runoff, flood warning technology, nonpoint source pollution, and water quality

regulation. The main role that the GIS plays is the integration with a developed model.

The model then accesses the GIS's vast database to simulate a parameter desired by the

user. The model then outputs the results back to the GIS where the GIS's visual and
 29

graphical representation allows the user access to the simulation while it unfolds.

Improved accuracy of the model/GIS is achieved with the accuracy of the input data and

maps of any given parameter. Accuracy of maps can be achieved with the availability of

higher resolution scale maps. The GIS allows modifications in the system when a "real

world" change takes place without inconvenience to the user. GIS allows automation of

redundant tasks such as data retrieval and input, so that the user can concentrate on

management and predictive strategies.

GIS is very useful in the field of planning so much that many local governments

are investing a lot into the development of their own GIS database. The municipality

must decide if the time and money of investing in the development of a GIS are worth the

outcome that they hope to achieve. The GIS is a powerful tool, but can be useless if it

doesn't solve the problem of a given situation. One caution should be noted that GIS, a

powerful tool, may give the user information that is not useful in solving the problem at

hand. The user must become aware of the GIS's power and remaine focused on solving

the problem at hand.

 30

11.3 Zebra Mussel History and Biology

It is of interest in this study to possibly relate regional water quality to zebra

mussel distribution. Dreissena polymorpha or zebra mussel is native of southern Russia.

Discovered several centuries ago in Europe, this freshwater mollusk has made its

presence felt in North America when it was introduced in 1986 into Lake 81. Clair by

ballast water discharged from transoceanic vessels from Europe (Ludyanskiy et al.,

1993). However, it was not until 1988 that the zebra mussel was discovered in Lake St.

Clair. The exotic freshwater species quickly spread into the warm waters of Lake Erie

where they thrived. Since then, the zebra mussels have quickly spread into the other Great

Lakes, St. Lawrence, Hudson, Mississippi, Ohio, Illinois, Tennessee, and Arkansas

Rivers (Ludyanskiy et al., 1993). The Great Flood of 1993 has helped quicken the spread

of the zebra mussel along the Mississippi River, its tributaries, and inland lakes (Cohen,

1994). The zebra mussel has even been discovered as far south as New Orleans. Figure

11.6 shows the early stages of zebra mussel infestation and the latest zebra mussel

distribution in North America.

The zebra mussel has proved to be resistant to preventive measures used by water

managers and plant operators. Thriving in North America, the zebra mussel lacks any

ecological limitations that would effect the spread throughout North America. The zebra

mussel requirements for thriving in North America are very broad. What limitations some
 31

Figure 11.6. States affected with zebra mussels in inland and adjacent waters for
1988 (top) and May 1997 (bottom) (modified from USGS
Nonindigenous Aquatic Species - Zebra Mussel Information
Resources, 1997, http://www.nfrcg.gov/zebra.mussel).
 32

researchers thought were placed on the zebra mussel have been proven wrong by the

mussel's ability to adapt quickly to its environment. Optimal water quality parameters for

the zebra mussel are: water temperature of 17 - 23°C (summer average), salinity of 0-4

ppt, pH between 7.0-9.0, calcium concentration of20-125 mg/L, and dissolved oxygen of

8-10 mg/L (Ludyanskiy et al., 1993). Waters with these conditions are usually infested

first by zebra mussels, then as the mussel migrates, other waters with less than optimal

conditions are infested as the zebra mussel adapts to its surroundings.

The zebra mussel has a life span of 2-5 years, with adult zebra mussels growing in

size to 25-35 mm. Reproduction occurs sexually as the female can release up to one

million eggs during a single spawning event with an average of 2 to 5 events per year

(Effler et al., 1996). The fertilized egg transforms into swimming larvae called veligers,

which rely on water currents to travel downstream to settle onto suitable substrate. Once

the veligers grow, they settle and attach themselves to the substrate with their byssal

threads. The zebra mussel feeds by filtering organic particles such as phytoplankton.

Zebra Mussels have clarified the waters of Lake Erie to the point where light now

penetrates the depths of Lake Erie to a point never before thought possible. Although the

zebra mussel is an efficient filter for clarifying water, it also has many negative impacts

on the environment as well. As stated before the zebra mussel is an excellent clarifier of

lake waters, however clarification does not always mean purification. After the zebra

mussel feeds, it excretes waste as pseudofeces and settles to the bottom where native
 33

clams and other aquatic organisms feed. Zebra mussel pseudofeces are rich in metals,

ammonia, and other toxins (Effler et al., 1996). The zebra mussel also competes for food

and oxygen reserves by depleting the levels of phytoplankton and dissolved oxygen

present in the water. Zebra mussels also harm native clams and unionids by attaching to

them and causing suffocation by preventing native species to open and close their valves

(Ludyanskiy et al., 1993).

 34

CHAPTER III

THEORY AND METHODOLOGY

III.! Data Reduction

When establishing a GIS for inventory or research purposes, the most expensive

element of the project is the costs involved in establishing the database. The time and cost

involved in establishing the database includes investigating, collecting, and editing the

data before its use. For this project, the time involved for establishing the water quality

database for Lake Erie was approximately 50% of the total time of the entire research

project. Water quality data used in the study was obtained via E-mail from the

International Joint Commission - Great Lakes Regional Office (Internet Address,

http://www.ijc.org/ ), which has access to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA)

STOrage and RETrieval System for Water and Biological Monitoring Database

(STORET) and the Canadian equivalent, Environment Canada. Three water quality

parameters including water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and calcium are of interest in

this project.
 35

The raw data are imported into a dBase IV table using Microsoft Excel" version

7.0. Relevant information used for the categorization of the data are latitude, longitude,

time, and depth at which sample was taken. Once the raw data are in dBase IV table

format, it is imported into the GIS program. For this study, ArcView GISTM version 3.0

and ArcView Spatial Analyst" version 1.0 is used for mapping and spatially analyzing

water quality in Lake Erie. ArcView GISTM is a Geographic Information Systems

software program developed for the desktop by Environmental Systems Research

Institute, Inc.

ArcView GISTM is used to categorize the data by four criteria. The data is

categorized by (in order): year, month, parameter type, and stratifying layer. The

ArcView GISTM query operation is used for the categorization process. After each query

is run, the results are converted into a shapefile. A shapefile is an ArcView GISTM

associated file that is used for storing different layers and themes. The query process for

sorting the data by year and month is self explanatory using the sampling data given.

After the data is sorted by date, it is then sorted into one of three parameter types

(because all three water quality parameters were not likely to be sampled at the same time

or at the same location): water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and calcium. To sort the

data by stratifying layer, the additional analysis must be performed to determine the

stratifying layers. Home and Goldman (1994) defined the thermocline as the region
 36

where temperature changes are greater than 1°C per meter of depth (10.3°F per foot of

depth), i.e.,

dT
- > 1 , (111-1 )
dY

where Trepresents temperature in °C and Yrepresents depth in meters. Using the criterion

for the thermocline, temperature versus depth were charted for various months.

Stratification charts at various months can be shown by examples in April, June, August,

and September as given in Figures 111.1 to 111.4. These figures show that the thermocline

extends deeper into the lake depth in the late summer as shown in Figure 111.4 than that in

the late spring as shown in Figure 111.2. The depth limits are determined for each month

and the data are finally split into appropriate stratification layers - epilimnion,

metalimnion, and hypolimnion layer.

111.2 Regionalization Using Kriging Estimation Technique

Regionalization is the process by which regionalized variables (in this case

temperature, dissolved oxygen, and calcium) are spatially distributed with continuity

whose changes cannot be represented by a deterministic function (Teoh, 1990).

Regionalization is performed using the kriging technique. The kriging method takes into

account the distance between data points, the degree of spatial continuity between data
 37

Temperature, °C
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0
,.
50

I
100 • No Thermocline
¢::

.s"'e,
III I· A

Q
(I)

Ii • i
- 1993
150 I
I ••
I>< ... II1992
• • 1991
.. ...
200 !.
• ~

I
x 1990

x 1989

• 1988
250

Figure 111.1. Stratification of temperature for April (1988-93).

Temperature, °c
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 :.J

::::
50

Thermocline Laye
• 1993
100 30 - 50 ft. :t: 1992
~ 1991
.s"'c, ... 1990
(!) • 1989
Q 150
...:;
• 1988
o 1986
6 1985

o -i- 1984
200 1983
• (>

- 1982
- 1981
1980
250

Figure 111.2. Stratification of temperature for June (1980-93).

 38

Temperature, °c
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0

x
x
50

)(

100 ~
Thermocline Layer
~ 1 A
45 - 65 ft.
~"
c,
Q)
Q 150 • 1993
II 1991
.. 1990
200
x 1989
): 1988
250

Figure 111.3. Stratification of temperature for August (1988-93).

Temperature, °c
o 5 10 15 20 25 30
O--+--+----;;~--+--+--+--4--+-~~__t_--+-_+_ ~lI___ti___Wf +__+__t__+__t_____j

I
50

100
~
~"
II
•
c, [] Thermocline Layer • 1993
Q)
70 - 90 ft. 1992
Q 150 x 1991
A 1990

II 1989

.. 1988
200 -i-1986
CJ 1985
o 1984
250 --1..-- ----'

Figure 111.4. Stratification of temperature for September (1984-93).

 39

points, and the estimation error which is related to the data point (Teoh, 1990). Another

advantage that the kriging method offers is the ability to preserve the spatial relation of

data by minimizing the variance of the estimation without bias.

Kriging, discussed in the following, is based on the linear minimum variance

unbiased estimation presented by Chang and Teoh (1995). Assuming n data points of 2

taken at spatial location { Xi' i = 1,2,...,n }an estimation can be expressed as

(111-2)

where 2.0 is an estimation of the 2 0 and (Xi is a weight of the observed sample at location

(111-3)

Xi and is chosen so that the estimation is unbiased with minimum variance, i.e.,

where E represents the function of expectation. The estimation is considered unbiased

when Equation (111-3) holds. The minimum variance is expressed as

(111-4)
 40

To satisfy the unbiased condition, the set of weights, {ex i , i = 1,2,...,n } is selected so that

the following condition holds true

n
L ex. -1 = 0
I
(111-5)
;=1

The regionalization method is achieved by minimizing Equation (111-4) with the

limitation of Equation (111-5). Minimization yields the following n+ 1 equations from

utilizing the Lagrangian optimization.

t
}=1
a.'t(x. - x.) = 't(x. - x )
I I } I 0
+ u, for i=1,2, ... ,n , (111-6)

and

n
Lex. 1 , (111-7)
}=1 }

where r is the semi-variogram which is expressed by

(111-8)

and Jl is a Lagrangian multiplier. Solving these equations simultaneously will result in

optimum weights { «; i = 1,2,....n }. The variance of the estimation is

 41

Experimental Semi-Variogram

Raw Data
(a)

Semi-Variogram Model

(c)
Kriged Results
(d)

Regionalized Image
(e) (f)
Figure 111.5. The six step process in the regionalization analysis for Lake Erie.
 42

n n n
-EEa.a.,;(x. - x.) + 2Ea.,;(x. - x
;=1 }=1 I } I } ;=1 I I
O
) (111-9)

The Geostatistical Environmental Assessment Software (GeoEAS), written by the

USEPA, is used for the kriging estimations. GeoEAS is an independent software package

separate from Arcview" which, unfortunately, does not support the dBase table format.

The analytical procedure for the regionalization process is summed up by a

schematic diagram shown in Figure 111.5. Starting with the distribution of raw data taken

at spatial locations as shown in Figure III.Sa, the data file is reformatted for input into the

GeoEAS program as described above. GeoEAS is made up of smaller programs that

perform the desired tasks to be discussed here. Once the data is formatted for the

GeoEAS, an experimental semi-variogram is derived as shown in Figure III.5b. A best fit

model is chosen with a 95% confidence level as shown in Figure III.5c. The kriging

estimations are performed and the output file is converted into a dBase table for input into

ArcView GISTM as illustrated in Figure III.5d. The kriged results are in vector format.

The vector to raster conversion is accomplished by using a spline interpolator to create 1

KM by 1 KM grid cells in the ArcView Spatial Analyst" program as shown in Figure

III.5e. The final regionalized image is shown in Figure III.5f. A more in depth description

for using the GeoEAS programs is illustrated by a flow chart given in Figure 111.6.
 43

Create a pairs comparison file of location pairs,

distances, and differences (program PREYAR)

Select lag sizes, calculate experimental semi-variogram and

plot for comparison with actual data points (program VARlO)

Are there sufficient

pairs in each data file?
no
yes
Is there a trend between the
data and the experimental
no semi-variogram?

yes
Select a model and cross validate the model
with the actual data (program XV ALID)

Is the 95% confidence

interval satisfied
( [z] < 1.96)?
yes
Krige the data using the best fit model selected (program KRIGE)

End: output kriged data estimations

Figure 111.6. Procedure for running the GeoEAS programs (adapted from
personal correspondence with Timothy Bartrand, 1997).
 44

111.3 The GeoEAS programs

The GeoEAS program PREYAR is a preprocessor program for the VARIO

program. It is used to compute the distance and direction between pairs of points in the

data. The calculations from PREYAR are used to change semi-variogram parameters in

VARIO. The output is a pair comparison file (PCF) that contains the computations of

distance and directions between data points (Englund and Sparks, 1988).

VARIO is used to conduct two-dimensional semi-variogram analysis and

modeling (Teoh, 1990). It uses the PCF file created by PREYAR to calculate statistics for

the experimental semi-variogram. Of interest is the variance of the pairs which satisfy the

combination of distance and direction for each data point measured, such as water quality

parameters in Lake Erie, for this study. The experimental semi-variogram is plotted

against the distance between pairs. In order to fit the experimental semi-variogram, a

theoretical model is chosen to fit the experimental semi-variogram. The theoretical model

is a representation of the experimental semi-variogram and initially fitted by eyeing a best

fit of the experimental semi-variogram superimposed with the model. Theoretical models

used for fitting experimental semi-variograms in the GeoEAS programs are discussed in

section 111.3.1.
 45

After a theoretical model is chosen, validation is performed by the XV ALID

program. XVALID stands for cross validation. Cross validation estimates at each

sampling location by kriging are based on the use of neighboring sample values

(excluding the point being estimated) and compares the results to the original observation

(Englund and Sparks, 1988). The theoretical model and search parameters used to

produce the estimates pass when the z-scores between the estimates and the raw data lie

within the 95% confidence level, i.e., when the theoretical model accurately reproduces

the spatial variability of the raw data. Search parameters are defined so that during the

computation of the kriging estimations, the neighborhood search is controlled to produce

accurate results. Once the model is chosen, the program KRIGE is used to obtain the

kriging estimates as discussed in section 111.2.

111.3.1 GeoEAS Models - An Overview

There are four models that GeoEAS offers to spatially represent the raw data.

These theoretical models and the equations that describe them are summarized in Table

111.1 below.
 46

Table 111.1. GeoEAS models and their equations.

IModel IEquation I
02( ~~
2 a
- ~(:r);O~h~a
Spherical t(h) =
o2;h>a

for all a>O

Gaussian t(h) =
02( 1 - exp ( - ( :

for all a> 0

r))
t(h) =
02( 1 - exp ( -:))
Exponential -<

for all a>O

Linear
t(h) = 8h; 8>0

In order to fit raw data to a model, the model parameters are defined to give the

"best-fit" as determined by eyeing the model superimposed over the raw data. Once the

model fitting is done and cross validation is performed, the model parameters can be

"tweaked" to satisfy the 95% confidence level. There are three parameters to specify for

each model (Teoh, 1990):

 47

xth) xth)
a ----------------~-~----
.95a

c
c
O'----........---A-------~ o------------~
2:. a a h h
3

a.) Spherical b.) Gaussian

't(h) xth)

a --J
• 95a
_..JL
II
- - --
I I
I I
I
I

c c

o'-----------------~
a o------------~
3a h h

c.) Exponential d.) Linear

Figure 111.7. The four theoretical models available in the GeoEAS programs.
 48

• Nugget Y-intercept of the model,

• Sill distance in the Y direction from the nugget to the

maximum value of the model,

• Range Distance in the X direction that corresponds with

the sill,

A graphical representation of the above models is shown in Figure 111.7.

111.3.2 Grid Resolution

A grid resolution study was performed to determine the proper amount of kriging

estimate points during the kriging process, i.e., the amount of points KRIGE creates. The

largest grid that GeoEAS allows is a grid of 100XIOO points. However, a grid size as

large as 1OOXI 00 is not needed as will be shown later.

The study was set up with three different scenarios, with the distance between

resulting kriged points being the variable. The data selected to test in the study is a

hypothetical set of dissolved oxygen parameters. The same data set was used for all three

scenarios and kriging was performed for all three scenarios with parameters remaining

the same except for the size of the resultant grid. In the first scenario, the distance

between resultant krige points was set at 5 kilometers (KM) in both the easting and

northing directions. This correlates to a grid of 85X50 points and is termed the high

resolution grid. The distance between kriged points for the second scenario was set at 10
 49

KM in both directions. A 10 KM spacing equates to a grid size of 43X25 points and is

termed as the medium resolution grid. Finally, for the third scenario, the distance between

kriged points was set at 20 KM. This correlates to a grid size of22X13 points and is

referred to as the low resolution grid. Following the steps outlined in Figures 111.5 and

111.6, the results of the grid resolution study are presented in Figure 111.8.

From an examination of Figure 111.8, one can see the subtle differences between

the high resolution grid in Figure III.8a and the medium resolution grid in Figure 111.8b.

With further examination of the low resolution grid, one can see the jagged edges of the

low resolution grid in Figure 111.8c as compared to the smooth edges of the high and

medium resolution grids in Figures III.8a and III.8b. However, the low resolution grid

still gives pretty good representation as compared to the high and medium resolution

grids. The minimum differences between the high and medium resolution grids does not

warrant further consideration of the high resolution grid. Although the low resolution grid

is acceptable, the medium resolution grid (43X25) is chosen for all kriging estimations

performed for this study. Another consideration that is taken into account is the disk

space that is required by each type of grid. A low resolution grid requires the least

amount of disk space, a medium resolution grid requires 4 times the disk space as a low

resolution grid, and a high resolution grid requires 16 times the disk space as a low

resolution grid.
 50

Figure ill.8. Results of the gridresolution study: ( a ) high resolution grid, ( b ) medium
resolution grid, and( c ) lowresolution grid
 51

CHAPTER IV

RESULTS AND ApPLICATIONS

IV.! Data Retrieval

Water quality data including temperature, dissolved oxygen, and total calcium,

were collected from the International Joint Commission as stated in section 111.1. In all,

there are 16,052 single data points for Lake Erie from January 1,1980 to December 31,

1995. Data for the years of 1994 and 1995 were not as complete as those from other

years. Therefore, only monthly data for the period of January 1, 1980 to December 31,

1993 are used in this study. Data availability is not consistent from one year to another

year. Temperature and dissolved oxygen data are more consistent in the months of April

and August than the rest of the months. However, the months of May, June, July, and

September have data that is adequate for the analysis. Data from the remaining months

are not sufficient for the study. Calcium data is sparse for most of the months except for

August.

Table IV.l lists the available monthly data for the time period when at least one

data point is present. Note that although Table IV.l lists the data available over the time
 52

Table IV.l. Data availability for January 1980 to December 1993.

1980 1981

LX J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
Ca X

DO X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

1982 1983

LX J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
Ca X X

DO X X X X X X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

1984 1985

LX J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D

Ca X X X X X

DO X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
1986 1987

LX J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D

Ca X X X X

DO X X X X X X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X

1988 1989

LX J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D

Ca X X X

DO X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X

1990 1991

LX J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D

Ca X X

DO X X X X X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X X
 53

Table IV.l. continued.

1992 1993

X J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D

Ca X

DO X X X X X X X X X X X

Temp X X X X X X X X X X X

period from January 1980 to December 1993, the spatial distribution of the data for a

particular month may not be suitable for the kriging analysis. Due to the fact that there

may be more than one sample taken at one location in a stratifying layer, the data is

averaged for each location within each layer before the kriging analysis is performed.

IV.2 Bathymetric Map of Lake Erie

The bathymetric map presented in Figure 1.2 for Lake Erie is, unfortunately, a

"dumb" image because it cannot be queried by a GIS to determine the aerial extent

corresponding to a given depth. Sampling depths for all of the data is used to create a

GIS-readable grid for Lake Erie. A spatial representation by all the points, 16 052 total, is

more than adequate to construct a bathymetric map for Lake Erie as shown in Figure

IV.l, which is used to determine the areas of the metalimnion and hypolimnion layers

that vary from month to month.

 N
Depth, m
0-10
/_.".,-/"--\
10 - 20
-- 20 - 30 uffalo
-- 30 - 40 Ontario

~ 40 - 50 -'/
.......... / ../
--
~ 50 - 60 "

60 -70 N~wYork
~

Detroit
-_......... """'\
--_....- ...
Michigan
:.,- \
t
,/ "

~/ -,. .......---, \

_.-----..r-- ..\ \:--. \:v)-~ . .·

, r- -~ .,. \

,.. - -- ...-
\
-~
Pennsylvania
>
..---_·-..··..t
~

. ,/ \';:".,.,..h f - ; ' ,
\
J' ,.. ...,~
~ -:

;
...._\
\
.,
O~~o j. f
I
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \--
"
Figure IV.I. Bathymetric map of Lake Erie produced with ArcView GIS. U"1
~
 55

IV.3 Regionalized Water Quality Parameters

Since water quality measurements were taken at various locations at Lake Erie, it

is one of the objectives to express them spatially by GIS images. Temperature, dissolved

oxygen, and total calcium data used to create the images in this section are presented in

Appendix A. Tables that list all of the grids created during the course of the analysis is

given in Appendix B. By using the methods discussed in Sections 111.2 and 111.3, water

quality were analyzed first and the images associated were constructed. Figures IV.2 to

IV.II are examples of 1985 temperature images for the months of April, June, August,

and September. The temperature variations in April is not great enough to classify

stratifying layers. On the other hand, three images each were resulted from monthly data

of June, August, and September at each of the stratifying layers, i.e. epilimnion,

metalimnion, and hypolimnion. Similarly, Figure IV.I2 represents the dissolved oxygen

image for the month of April, while Figures IV.I3 to IV.I5 are images for the three

stratifying layers in August. For total calcium in August, only two stratifying layers, i.e.

epilimnion and hypolimnion, were available for the image representation as shown in

Figures IV.I6 and IV.I7.

By examining Figures IV.2 to IV.II and similar images for other years listed in

Tables B.I to B.14, it can be seen that temperature in Lake Erie increases from the eastern

region to the central and western regions regardless of month and stratifying layer.
 56

However, temperature increases from east to west are greater for the lower layers, i.e.

hypolimnion, than those for the upper layers, i.e. epilimnion. Furthermore, variations of

temperature increases are greater in the western region as compared to those in the eastern

region. This can be explained by the significant depth decrease from the eastern to

western regions of the lake. The average depth in the western basin is 7.5 meters (25 feet)

while that of the eastern region has a maximum depth of64 meters (210 feet) (GLNPO,

1995). At shallow depths, sunlight can penetrate to the lake bottom as is the case for the

western region in the late summer. The stratification charts in Figures 111.1 to 111.4 show

that temperature decreases with depth, which are confirmed by temperature images

resulting from this study.

Dissolved oxygen images of Figures IV.12 to IV.15 show that DO spatially

decreases from the eastern to western regions. It can also be seen that dissolved oxygen

decreases with an increase of depth. In late summer, dissolved oxygen in the hypolimnion

are as low as 20% in parts of the central basin. The behaviors for the decreases of

temperature and dissolved oxygen with increases of depth are similar as shown in the

images for June, August, and September, respectively.

Total calcium images in Figures IV.16 and IV.17 show that total calcium

decreases from the eastern to western regions. However, there are significant depth

variations between epilimnion and hypolimnion layers. The total calcium increases with
 57

depth. The higher total calcium level at greater depths may be a result that calcium

carbonate (CaC0 3 ) is more soluble in cold waters than in warm waters. Since calcium is

a major factor for the growth of mollusks and other related aquatic species (Home and

Goldman, 1994), it implies that at greater depths of the lake, aquatic mollusk species such

as zebra mussels can be thriving. Both Ludyanskiy et al. (1993) and Effler et ale (1996)

reported that calcium concentrations of at least 20 mg/L are required for the survival of

zebra mussels. Ludyanskiy et ale (1993) claimed that temperature, dissolved oxygen,

calcium, turbidity, salinity, and pH are all primary factors in the growth and spread of the

freshwater mollusk in inland and freshwater lakes.

Temperature,OC N
2.7 - 3.6
C2r8~)iV 3.6 - 4.5
EiI~lli9 4.5 - 5.4
5.4 - 6.3 uffalo
.. 6.3-7.1 Ontario "

7.1 - 8.0
\., r:
..
.. 8.0 - 8.9
8.9 - 9.8 \

.. New York
.. 9.8 - 10.7

;,,-".,_.-
,,,.t~" ".-' \.

\
"-_.........\.........
J--.( \T-----\,J-- ... ,
~ ~
.. ;
\ ("~ ...' \
.:s->:
\ \
Pennsylvania \ (
~.--_.~ Cleveland __.....--1,
\.. ~.- ..".'.'~ \
Toleq.d \...~ <------r--..
.;" ': l. .. -'
_ < :' \,;; -e > "";,;,,J' \ __ ---
;
'( ;

O~io I
....... -. \.. I
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers

Figure IV.2. Temperature levels for April 1985. U'l

00
 Temperature, °C N
11.8 - 12.7
c@il~v 12.7 - 13.6 /_.>:: _ / . - \

et!j§Ijj) 13.6 - 14.4

~\,._ ...
-.
14.4 - 15.3 uffalo \
~ l'\
~ 15.3 - 16.2 Ontario
~ 16.2 - 17.0
~ 17.0-17.9
~ 17.9 - 18.8
~ 18.8 - 19.6

-,.. ----,.,-~

-_..... -- ...
Michigan
;
,--
"

-----------(' ,)--\------\)- ~~ ...~ ;

r:
Pennsylvania \
-----~\ >-~.- . . _.. ~
-./ ' \~''''~;'__ J.,_)-.:/_rj
\
~ " ...1
1

r :, \
O~io ..........\
/
I
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \--
~--
)

Figure IV.3. Temperature levels for June 1985 in the epilimnion layer. Ul
\0
Temperature.Ff' N
13.9 - 14.2
~ 14.2 - 14.4 /---_.,_/._~\

~ 14.4 - 14.6
~ 14.6 - 14.9 uffalo r:
l .. \

~ 14.9 - 15.1 Ontario

~ 15.1 - 15.4
.r:
~ 15.4 - 15.6
I

~ 15.6 - 15.9
N~wYork
~ 15.9 - 16.1

Erie

~,-;'\ ~.-

,:.,.)--._----- \
J'-'/ \.:::-'" '\'v > ~! ~­
\. I""~ ••. ' \ ,...':.1.-..J
J

.:»>:
. \
Pennsylvania \
\
.-.
toled,,{ ..- \... \_--------_ ... ~ ~
';" ~ l _
.,/ \.~,.,.,;,/.J\. ..
~,~'

\ O_~io .....r :
/

\~.- ... /
f
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \--

Figure IV.4. Temperature levels for June 1985 in the metalimnion layer. 0'\
o
 Temperature.X' N
11.3-11.6
11.6-12.0 / ...,.,./,"'''''
Qj~EltD
- 12.0 - 12.3
~ 12.3 - 12.6 uffalo
~ 12.6 - 13.0 Ontario
~ 13.0 - 13.3
~ 13.3 - 13.6
~ 13.6 - 14.0
~ 14.0 - 14.3

Detroit Erie
...... --_...........
-_..... -....
_#~._~--
-
r - -_...~ ./
\ \

~_ .. _.j \
_ ----J---( ,)J-----\v>- "'\. ,;"
" ...v
J
.:»>:
o • •_
C1ev~~~~ -j-- - - - - Pennsylvania \,
~ .._.- ....-.--"t :
Toledo" --- \__, _
'.' '~ ...
, -. ",
..... -..:
\~
;
\
~.~., ....""~ ;
---------- ,/ \-;;r,"-'-::.-"\__ -
;

\ O~io
I
25 50 75 ---------- ~---- f
o 100 Kilometers
......................... ~

Figure IV.5. Temperature levels for June 1985 in the hypolimnion layer. 0\
~
 Temperature, °C N
21.0-21.2
.... _40

ctITID 21.2-21.5 ,...-_.,-,-/-'

@r1tj~j) 21.5-21.7
21.7-21.9
~ 21.9 - 22.2 Ontario
~ 22.2 - 22.4
~ 22.4 - 22.6
~ 22.6 - 22.8
~ 22.8 - 23.1

..., . , ... " .......

,".
,. :_--\
_.. ----J--.. -.~
/ ':-\--:.---" ---\:v).~ . ,.- "'.
• ( __7".' \
"\, ;
r--'"
~ Pennsylvania \
~ ~.,,--\ --_.--\
"
\.-~----.- ..---t \
Toled0 L,~
cle~~ld :.--------\--_..
.~,\ ~
, .,' ~ l_- - --
.,.- r _.. ..... ~ ".,--'-'--"-'" r
'f
\:;",,-;<!,,/~ ..--_._--
\' \
.1.. ........ - ...
O~io
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \--
-----------------, ,--- " ' / ' .

, - "
co ........ 11 "
Figure IV.6. Temperature levels for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer. 0\
N
 Temperature.Ff: N
19.5 - 19.8
CSmill~jV 19.8 - 20.0 /---"'-/"

E1IijifItD 20.0 - 20.3

20.3 - 20.6 uffalo
20.6 - 20.9 Ontario
20.9 - 21.1
21.1-21.4 \"'" '-, ,,"/"/

\
......
21.4-21.7
.. New York
.. 21.7 - 22.0

Detroit
.s->::

Michigan
o#~ - _ .. .. ' ...........

:...- .....,_._---

. : ----- \ r :..'.'

.., ,
--_..( ;\.:'-""'\".J~-'-'
\ ~ ..r: \ )\-j
Cle;~~~d Pennsylvania \ "

\.-~.-,"""'~ \
..... -, .•.. _, .•... ,'
.......,..'\' .'> -"\\"" .•. ,. ..;..:(,'i·· •. "
\ J --
.,1'-'\ ,.
\,~, c
\

\' ~ _.... _....... - \

O_~io • ......... \
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers /
f""""
C" .... ....~ "
Figure IV.7. Temperature levels for August 1985 in the metalimnion layer. 0\
W
 Ternperature.F'C N
6.3 - 7.7
CijTI~illD 7.7 - 9.1 /-._.-'_/-~\

Eili~li~j) 9.1-10.5 ;

10.5 -11.9 uffalo \-----

~ l,,"\

~ 11.9 - 13.3 Ontario

~ 13.3 - 14.7
;"""'-- .r:
14.7 - 16.1 \ ~--.-
~
\

~ 16.1-17.5
N~wYork
~ 17.5 - 18.9

Detroit

Michigan
,-
,/

./'
.......
------J-- .....·t -\--~----- --\;v)'-'-':- ---
o
1lj \. r-~"-' \
~_. Pennsylvania \~
-_ -_..\_ ..
toledg···· L Cle~~:~d \_-~'-'-'-'---1\ \
\ \
•...\ / ( ~ L. ..
.........'\ \-:>")'://'"\-.--.... .--"
"
\
'T.. ··! c .. ····
/
a 25 50 75 100 Kilometers
: ·.:~·.-:~~iO_ _\ ,. ··C.. /

.. 1 ... - _ ' . . . . . . . .
co ...

Figure IV.8. Temperature levels for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer. 0\
~
 Temperature.Pf: N
21.2-21.3
21.3-21.4 /_.,--'-/._\\

E[Im~§)
- 21.4-21.5
21.5 - 21.7 uffalo

~ 21.7-21.8 Ontario
~ 21.8-21.9
v<«; .r:
\ .'!", ..... - .... ",.

~ 21.9 - 22.0
~
~ 22.0 - 22.1
N~wYork
~ 22.1 - 22.2

Michigan _ ...\
~, \
............ ' ....

.... \
,,,1" "

---.-( ,_\-:------\v)- .... ,

~ ......

~ Pennsylvania ('
,
_.. _-~\
.-.
TOle!~o'---- 1--,,_--- \.----------·'1\
-, ,/ \ ~_"':. ,_>_:/,r i ' ;
~ .....
;,., ...,... ~_ ......

:, \. \
~ .... - ~,
J ... ~- ..

~
- ....... '\
I
o_~~o
I
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \--
~--
. . . . . ·.r \.. " i
I

C' '",...... "r~:

Figure IV.9. Temperature levels for September 1985 in the epilimnion layer. 0\
Vl
Temperature.f'f' N
14.3 - 14.7
CI2IlV 14.7 - 15.1
CI2IlV 15.1 - 15.5
15.5 - 15.9 uffalo
.. 15.9 - 16.2 Ontario
16.2 - 16.6
.r:
..
.. 16.6 - 17.0
17.0-17.4 \
New York
17.4-17.8
::~~tt
....
Detroit Erie

~ ..._.... \ ... ---

.t- ~.- \
,-" "
r-"-"':
\ ~
" ..--~ \.
c -----------( ,-~};------\)-- -
1t:j Pennsylvania \
~----,-------- Cle~;;~~ -__ -S---- \_-~--"_. __... ~ \
Tolego-- \--0,_
' j : l.·-

'\
......... I~
_-J-~------T~ \ (/ \-;;",.-',:J\__ -
~, L

~ ",
.. .-'" - \
\' .1._ ..
J
O_~~o
o /
25 50 75 100 Kilometers ;
~·""r'·"r -\... . ,.
... ' .. _ J ............ ........ {

Figure IV.lO. Temperature levels for September 1985 in the metalimnion layer. 0\
0\
Temperature.X: N
-- 5.1 - 5.4
C8~jf~)~2Y 5.4 - 5.8 r: ...'-/'"-'\

E[Illi~IB~ 5.8 - 6.2

~ 6.2 - 6.6 uffalo
~ 6.6 - 7.0 Ontario
~ 7.0 - 7.4
\'-,... ~ . . -.. . '.r::
~ 7.4 - 7.8
\.
~ 7.8 - 8.2 N~wYork
~ 8.2 - 8.6

i~~;·

Detroit Erie

L .........

. -_.- \.
.,
...
-_ ...; -.....\-
,;".r ";
,.----: ,~ ~
\ \

o :-"r" ; \..... .< (.>';""'-'\j~- -

.---L--; ... icj Pennsylvania \\
: I do..-- \ CleV:.l.~~ '..J \_-~-_._._ .._.~ \
To e. l....,
, . ~ ·c_ - -- i
\ ...z. ~ ,,>.:/_r '-\
...:,..> .... T> \ ........ --..--- ~ ~~ ...
,,, ~_ ..... _-
\ ~.
_.~ - _.
- - _.. - \
\' Ohio L.
- ~ .-, ~
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \----- •. ".1

"' ...-_.--
.. 1. . . . . . . . - .....
)

Figure IV.II. Temperature levels for September 1985 in the hypolimnion layer. 0\
-.....l
 N
"
;

/-. __.,_/--~\

uffalo

~ Ontario
~
\ ' ,<. '-,-........ r::
\
N~wYork
------
Detroit ~.. ---

___ ... ~_r'

---- --- -- ..--- -\ .... -

;~~ ..i' ---- .

.': \
, C- r-.-{ \J-···--t).-',
~--_ ...\ ........ \, r--~--" \

--,--l-;~ tlevel$d Pennsylvania \

Toledg''''---\--- ... _ _ . . . . .__ ... \ _ ....... 4 .....
-----\ \_---- --t \
-, ~
. t" \---"\ ---- ........_ ..: ~
;
\
~
....... J
,/ \";'r,'">";--"\__ ------
~ ~

;
, \ '
L."·--

O~io i.._ .....~_ ..

I
\ I
I
o \----- i

.. I . . . . . . ,. ......... C" :"

, ,r ~~

Figure IV.12. Dissolved oxygen levels for April 1985. 0\

00
Dissolved Oxygen, mg/L N
~
7.9 - 8.0
EItV 8.0 - 8.2
~ 8.2 - 8.3
.-.,... ..
- --
~~ili~J~~~ 8.3 - 8.4
~ 8.4 - 8.5 Ontario
~ 8.5 - 8.7
../ " /
~ 8.7 - 8.8
",

8.8 - 8.9 \
~ N~wYork
~ 8.9-9.1

Detroit

Michigan
." ---j---\-_._-------
,~ ,'" \

----( ,->-;------\j~' ""~.. .. .;

'\
,. ---
-- -~
Pennsylvania \ ('
\_---_.-._ .._.~ \
,.'
J

'\
... ,. ..1,
I
\
\\.--/;<.--"'\----
\' ~ .. \

O~io ,
-_ .....
a 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \--_ .... I
f

-'..- ..
-_...... .... .r ~~

Figure IV.13. Dissolved oxygen levels for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer. 0\
\0
Dissolved Oxygen, mg/L N
6.7 - 6.9
CillI9 6.9-7.1 .,._.... ,./'.-\
~ 7.1-7.3
;::~;ili~f~~~j;~::~ 7.3 - 7.5
f8 7.5 - 7.7 Ontario
~ 7.7 - 7.9
\." <. '-,-..« .r:
~ 7.9 - 8.2
8.2 - 8.4 \
~ N~wYork
~ 8.4 - 8.6

Detroit

--_..... .- ....
Michigan
,-
,.....
"

»:: .. (_>-',------\)~
: o r
~ ~d Pennsylvania \.
\ ~-_.--~- i
---"'--',
\ __ . . - _ . _. c - > : ~ \

Toledo L.,
' / ' ': '1. - ''\,
_-- ... --.. --.,. i
\':;r'."<:-_i'\_------
..... \_.-0

O~~o ~.
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers t.·~L----

...... -'..... .- ...

-.....

Figure IV.14. Dissolved oxygen levels for August 1985 in the metalimnion layer. -......l
o
Dissolved Oxygen, mg/L N
1.1-2.1
etI9 2.1-3.0 /'--'"'-/"~\
Q1D 3.0 - 4.0
..,...- ..
--
~ 4.0 - 5.0
C. 5.0 - 5.9 Ontario
48 5.9 - 6.9 -, ...~

~ 6.9 - 7.9 \",,/,//

~ 7.9 - 8.9
New York
~ 8.9 - 9.8

Detroit

--- -' _.-.,,\, .._-

--
;...- ...,...._--_ ... ~

r ~ .....:
,..-t \.
\ \

(-_.., j \, _.._.---_./ \.;.--.. _-\.j~~,.- -

o ~ \
~ (--: .... \
.-l--; .c->: -.--
1d Pennsylvania \
,
,..--,-_... \.. ....----- ;, \,._,_.,.... --~, \
tOled0""- \...~ .
Clev~:~d _.r
\\ \
' : l ... -
". .-- -,- ~ .... : ~
\ \\._•.
.........',
,-hr/·~ ..------.-._-..\
r ..' O_~~o l ..... ·.........
I
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers I
\-- r
.. _I,.. _ ............ ,~

Figure IV.15. Dissolved oxygen levels for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer. ......:l
~
 N

CD Ontario
CD
CD y." ->
CD New York
CD

Michigan

. . ::I~
l .» ....

\'Pennsylvania \ ;
~J~_~_.-J --· . . 'i~

'J
/ / \'~>/;'<!/'
(
\_..
- ...... -...... --~
Ohio I

o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers /

...~............. --~ .......J':'

Figure IV.16. Total calcium levels for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer. ......:J
N
Total Calcium, mg/L N
35.4 - 35.6
'L ........ • .... • ..

~ 35.6 - 35.8
35.8 - 35.9 /--_./,~\._--
~
35.9 - 36.1 Buffalo
~ 36.1 - 36.3 Ontario
~ 36.3 - 36.4
~ 36.4 - 36.6
~ 36.6 - 36.8
New York
~ 36.8 - 36.9

............ -.,
4 .. - - - .. · .....

Michigan

...........
.. (1-1

; \_-

o \

i~'l ;
~cj \Pennsflvania \
~ --- 9 --r-::-=-.. . -.. . . -.. --~L
~\, . ' " .' _.---\\
~ ...-"..- ...........
/ \,~>,.,;.,.r"
c - _, ---_--ly. _. _
,... -..... - .....
J
!-: :\- - ~~:~--\ J

o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \.- L~--- .------..---.---,-- \..... .\ 'r-- -,.-

----~\ \ \ ._c------;

Figure IV.17. Total calcium levels for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer. .......:l
w
 74

IV.4 Dissolved Oxygen Concentration

Further examination of Figures IV.I2 to IV.IS shows that the dissolved oxygen

concentration in April is much greater than that in August in the same year. Regional

distribution of cooler water temperatures shown in Figure IV.2 for April as compared to

that of warmer water temperature shown in Figures IV.6 to IV.8 for August is believed to

be partially responsible for the significant difference of dissolved oxygen concentration.

It is desirable to remove the temperature effect on dissolved oxygen since most aquatic

species are capable of temperature acclimation. Based on Figure 11.4, a third degree

polynomial relation between temperature and dissolved oxygen can be expressed as:

DOsat -0.00006 T 3 + 0.0071 T 2 - 0.3931 T + 14.57 , (IV-I)

where DOsat represents the concentration of dissolved oxygen at saturation in mg/L at a

given temperature, T, in "C. Equation (IV-1)is derived from data taken from Metcalf and

Eddy, Inc. (1991). By Equation (IV-I), the dissolved oxygen in percent saturation images

can be produced from the following:

DO (%) = [ D:;;ged ] x 100 , (IV-2)

sat
 75

where DOkriged represents the dissolved oxygen images shown in Figures IV.12 to IV.15

The image DOsat is produced by substituting temperature images from Figures IV.2 to

IV.ll for Tin Equation (IV-I).

Figure IV.18 is an example of dissolved oxygen in percent saturation image

created from Figures IV.2 and IV.12 for April 1985. Figures IV.19 to IV.21 are examples

of dissolved oxygen in percent saturation images created from Figures IV.6, IV.7, IV.8,

IV.13, IV.14, and IV.15 for the three stratifying layers of August 1985. Images of

dissolved oxygen in percent saturation created for other years are listed in Tables B.l to

B.14 in Appendix B.

Based on the image results of dissolved oxygen in percent saturation, it shows that

DO decreases rapidly with an increase of depth regardless of temperature and location. It

is noted that dissolved oxygen is near saturation at 95% in the epilimnion but

significantly drops to as low as 30% in the hypolimnion layer in the central and western

regions of Lake Erie.

Diss. Oxygen, % saturation N
~ 94 - 96
96 - 98
98 - 100

Ontario
--
New York

Michigan \ , ... .-,- ~

~(/
.--
..... ,...
\ ;::-..... /

Clev~~~........,
\Penns~i~ania\
~·-T~_-·-· ;l_.--------~-\ .\
. J
-_........ ~ ;'
\_~>/;.<.<i. ;
.~./

\
---\ ~ ~

". ;----- .. Ohio :.-.. ~.-

I
r--
\ /
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers --
f
---"'\_....
........,..4' ...--·\ ...... ,!~'

Figure IV.18. Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for April 1985. .......:.J
0\
Diss. Oxygen, % saturation N
~ 90 - 92
92 - 94 r,·-f--\
;
94 - 96
96 - 98
••
Ontario
98 - 100
..,-~

. .r:
••
\

N~wYork

Michigan
\,_ .... ..-------
,
r- ••• __•••••• .r : ••• ( / ' .•• c··· ..
, '" .... , ,
\, (- -~-_.'
\~.~~~':-
\ ~ ... "I ;

Pennsylvania \ r
Clev~;~d ~
..;···t··········· " \_·~-_·_·--·-·i~ \
. ······\..L .
;\\._~'"" r. ;.<;j" \. .. "."." ..•, <
; I
\

( \
; ~.
·
Db'·10 \.
~ __..,_-- __,_ .\, .J
4 ....... \

...,.~ ..__ ..J'" \....J--L .c .«::

;"
I
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers
/
4 ....\ ' - · .. - .. · ....... ~...r ~~

Figure IV.19. Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for August 1985 in the epilimnion layer. ........:J
........:J
Diss. Oxygen, % saturation N
75 -77
~ 77 -79
€IEillW 79 - 82
@l[ill~ 82 - 84
~ 84 - 86
~ 86 - 88
~ 88 - 90 Ontario
~ 90 - 92
~ 92 - 95 r"

New York

.., ---".-'
Michigan \
, ....
.... ,-_ ---- ......
_ r ; - _ .. - _ ... ~-_ ..

r'

.'
o ,.,
~...-~..)
11j \Penns,~lvania \
--;::f'-'~:~-'-- ;, Cl~~~1.~~, -'-'\
--_ ........ ~ ~---;, ,-- ,-- \;',\ \ \---- /r --- -'-'\-~""r!;'<",-J\
---\ / \
\/
\_ ..
- ....- ---)
Ohio I
I
; ;
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers
"
j

..'........ -..._..\ ....... J~f

Figure IV.20. Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for August 1985 in the metalimnion layer. ........:l
00
Diss. Oxygen, % saturation N
10 - 19
~ 19 - 27
ElliI]D 27 - 35 .»: ,r.;\.__
~ 35 - 44
~ 44 - 52
Buffaki..
~ 52 - 60
~ 60 - 68 Ontario
~ 68 -77 / ...
.~, .
~ 77 - 85 .,,'

New York

... _ ... w." ...... -.r .1 ~-

Michigan \
, I · ... ~ •• ~ ..... " " - ........
__-; ;.. ...
-
"
.. .........
~ rl~ , \

.' (-\--\--·----·-\(.~v-~·-·· .
\) ,.,
{~:-.....)
~cj \penns;~ivania\
~ .... ..--_.._.. ...~~
- -
.' ~I~ ••

_.-......... ~ .............. ~\
~·'·C.':.'_. L::L""~l:~~l~~~.,, - '''\...__ ." \-~,,,/ ;,<,,>' ;~"
---\
\ ---~
Ohio I

o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \ !
--"\
... 1 --\

Figure IV.21. Dissolved oxygen concentration as percent saturation for August 1985 in the hypolimnion layer. ......:l
\0
 80

IV.5 Depth to Mid-Metalimnion

The depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer is of interest to analyze because

of possible effects of zebra mussel activities. It is believed that zebra mussels have

improved water clarity in Lake Erie (Ludyanskiy et al., 1993). Improving water clarity

means a decrease in turbidity and an increase in penetration of sunlight from solar

radiation into the depths of Lake Erie. Warmer water temperature is expected and depths

to the metalimnion layer would increase. Wang and Seyed-Yagoobi (1994, 1995) stated

that water clarity expressed in terms of turbidity plays a significant role in the degree of

solar radiation penetration for ponds. Warmer water temperatures in deeper regions of the

lake would result in increased aquatic activity in those regions where previously little or

no activity existed. The implication as a result of the zebra mussel inhabiting the waters

of Lake Erie can change the aquatic ecosystem of the lake.

Images of depth to the middle of the metalimnion are produced for the month of

August for 1983 and 1991. The process involves producing stratification charts for each

sampling location and determining the mid point of the metalimnion. Then, depths are

kriged using the methods discussed in Sections 111.2 and 111.3. Results are presented in

Figures IV.22 to IV.25 in two forms; depth in meters to middle of the metalimnion and

depth to middle of the metalimnion as percent of total depth. Results show that no

significant increase in depth to middle of the metalimnion exists between 1983 and 1991.
 Depth, m N
5.2 - 6.8
\....-......
~ 6.8 - 8.5
~ 8.5-10.1
10.1 -11.8
~ 11.8-13.4 Ontario
~ 13.4 - 15.1
~ 15.1 - 16.8
~ 16.8 - 18.4
\'--'/
New York
~ 18.4-20.1

Michigan \
_", ...__.p'
I

c-- •.

._.__ \' c\_·\--·"'--\~v:\·-·· .

Cleveland
-_.-.... - -........
~ ........... ...
__.--,\ \Penns,~i~ania\
.;..----------\
" ~
J
\~._.~:'.-.I' ..-.!,</...
/
f
\ \-_ .... -
\
1'---"--
.: Ohio -_ ....... ""\
I ; :...--"
'r ..· - ....... -
;
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers \
f

...'............ ; "

Figure IV.22. Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer for August 1983. 00
~
c=J Lake Bottom N
Depth, % total
25% - 34%
~ 34% - 43%
E[}I[) 43% - 51%
51% - 59%
Ontario
59% - 67%
67% -75% ." .,. .,..

75% - 84%
84% - 92%
---
New York
92% - 99.9%
---
Michigan

.... (/ \F·····\>-.c:•.
~ ... :-._.... \Penns~i~ania \
\ I db \ Cle~~r.~~ \ \._--_.._-_...-t \.
:To e. ~.~c ...•..... \ \
--- . . . . ·1 // \'-,2,," :,</./ \ ....' .,•. ' .., .. ~
\...'"
/ \
\.
\-~ _.....- ---~
Ohio r--
> ••
o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers
\ ····r::.. , /' J

,
....'
..... . ~ .....- -'~ . . . .1':'

Figure IV.23. Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer as a percentage of total depth for August 1983. 00
N
 Depth, m N
6.8 - 8.0
cIIrD 8.0 - 9.2
c]~lliliD 9.2-10.5
10.5 -11.7
11.7 - 13.0 Ontario
13.0 - 14.2
.,..~~ ...... ,"
14.2 - 15.5
......
15.5 - 16.7
New York
16.7 - 18.0
....
.,
.; --~- ..~-..,. .... ....
\
\

._.".</ !'\"F"---\j::·'·
Cle~~lf:~"_" --- '-",
\Penns,~i~ania \
.).._ .._-------\ .\
. ./
\ 1 /
I
\'~>/;'<!-'" \"-,,- ."..-"'\
\

1----··--

;i
25 50
.?-~~~,, ~" , _
_-.-. ~--J." _~
o 75 100 Kilometers
---------------" --._-.'i

~ ..~-- -. :
: I

Figure IV.24. Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer for August 1991. 00
w
 N

~ Ontario
~
~
~
~ New York
~

~~ -' ~ -'"
Michigan \ .... ,~ ....-

...~.- ...~ ...~ ...

~ .... '" ..
\
..
_.- \ '\r"'-'\,,>-.'.
Cleveland ._, \Penns,~i~ania \
_.------~-- --_.-. _.-- \ \ ...... ...
- -.---_ ....... ~:
\ ~
~'-T~-"" ---.- ..---. .'
--....... ~ ! \'·-.\",,1.;'</'"
~/ \ \ \ .. _.
\.
\
---~ ..-..~
Ohio _.."'....; .__....- J

o 25 50 75 100 Kilometers l i

... 1.......... "._.- -~\ ...... /.{

Figure IV.25. Depth to the middle of the metalimnion layer as a percentage of total depth for August 1991. 00
~
 85

IV.6 Energy Storage Analysis

The water clarity implication by zebra mussel activities in Lake Erie leads to the

interest for an energy storage analysis. The energy storage in Lake Erie fluctuates from

season to season. Factors involved in the analysis of energy storage include the ambient

water temperature and the mass of each stratification layer. Cengel and Boles (1989)

expressed the energy storage as

dE = mep sr (IV-3)

where

M = the energy storage due to temperature changes,

m = the mass of water of each layer estimated by p; x V L'

p; = density of water,
VL = the volume of water in a stratification layer,
C, = specific heat of water = 4.184 kJ/kg·K,
I1T = the temperature change between two time intervals.

Using ArcView GISTM, the bathymetric map shown in Figure IV.! is queried to

determine the plane area at a corresponding depth. For example the plane area at depth =

o would correspond to the surface area of Lake Erie. Once the plane area at a given depth
is determined, the volume at the depth is estimated by the product of the two. The results

are shown in Table IV.2 for various depths of Lake Erie.

 86

Table IV.2. Estimated plane areas and cumulative volumes at various depths of Lake Erie.
Plane Area Cumulative
Depth (ft.) Depth (m) (kIn 2) Volume (km') Volume (krrr')

0 0 25,704 0 0

10 3.0 25,355 77.3 77.3

20 6.1 24,702 75.3 152.6

30 9.1 23,155 70.6 223.1

40 12.2 20,270 61.8 284.9

50 15.2 17,407 53.1 338.0

60 18.3 14,421 44.0 381.9

70 21.3 10,018 30.5 412.5

80 24.4 4,149 12.6 425.1

90 27.4 2,761 8.4 433.5

100 30.5 2,353 7.2 440.7

120 .36.6 1,572 9.6 450.3

140 42.7 1,053 6.4 456.7

160 48.8 606 3.7 460.4

180 54.9 300 1.8 462.2

200 61.0 62 0.4 462.6

Plane area versus depth and cumulative volume versus depth curves are presented as

hypsographic curves given in Figures IV.26 and IV.27. These curves are also useful for

reservoir control since the best way to store or release a desired volume of water is to

raise or lower the water level according to the hypsographic curve (Home and Goldman,

1994).
 87

PlaneArea, km2
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
0
I 1

1 1

1 I .1
I 1 1 1

10 - -1- - - - - - - - - -t - ----t--------- - --t

1 1 I 1

1 I 1 1

I 1 I I
1 I • 1 1 I
20 --1- ---1.----- - - - -I- - - - - - - - -1- - - -------!-
1 ,
I I 1
1 I I I I
I 1 1 1 I

S 30 _1
1

J _
1
_
1
L
1
1 _
I

-:5" 1

I
I

1
I
1
I
I
1
I
(:l.;
(1) 1 1 1 1 1

C 1 I I I 1

I
40 - -
1
-1- - - - - - - - - I 1 1

1
-------
1

I
-------
1

1 I 1 I I
1 1 1 I 1

1 1 1 1 1

1 I I I
50
1

- - - - - -1- - - - - - - - - I - - ------i ------1- -------

I 1 1 I
1 I 1 I
1 I I 1

I 1 1 I 1

60 - - -1- - - - - -- - - - ---t -- - - - - t- - - - - - - - - -1- - - - - -j - - - -

1 1 1 1 1

I I 1 I 1

Figure IV.26. Hypsographic curve of plane area for Lake Erie.

Cumulative Volume, krrr'

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0
1 1

1 1 1

I I I
I I I 1
10 -1- - - - I - - I - - - - - 1- -
I 1 I I I
1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1
1 I I I I 1 I I 1
20 - - - - - 1- - - - - -I- - - - -I - - - - - 1 - - - - - I - - - - - T - - - - - I - - - - - - - - - 1- -
1 1 I 1 I I 1 1

1 1 1 I I 1 I I
I I I 1 1 1 1 1

S 30
1
- - - -
I
-1- - - - -
I I
------j--------t-----T----
I 1 I
1-----1--
I I

.J::" I I 1 1 I I I 1
~
c, 1 I I I 1 1 1 I
(1)
I 1 1 1 1 I I 1
0 1 I I I I 1 1 1

40 - - - - - 1- - - - - 1- -- - - -I - - - - - ~ - - I - - - - T - - - - - 1 - - - - I-
1 1 1 I I 1 1 I

I I I 1 1 I I 1

1 1 1 I I 1 I I

I 1 I I 1 1 I 1

50 - - - - - 1- - - - - 1- - - ------t---- T --1- -I--

1 I I I 1 I 1

1 1 1 1 I 1 I

I I 1 I 1 I I
I 1 1 I 1 I 1 I
60 - - - - - 1- - - - - -I - - - - -I- ---j--------t-----T- ---1---- I-
1 1 I I I I 1 I
I I 1 1 I I I I

Figure IV.27. Hypsographic curve of cumulative volume for Lake Erie.

 88

To estimate energy storage, ArcView GISTM was used to calculate: (1) average

temperature for each month and layer by using the temperature images obtained in

Section IV.3 and those listed in Appendix B; and (2) volume of each stratifying layer.

Density of water varies with temperature. To compensate for temperature variation, the

relationship given in Figure IV.28 is used to obtain the water density at any given

temperature, where Figure IV.28 was obtained based on the data from Streeter and Wylie

(1985).

1001

1000

999

~e
998
bn
~

J~
997
:t:;:
U)
l::=
Q) 996
0
~
Q)
~ 995 Pw = -lE-07T4 + 4E-05T 3 - 0.0073T 2 + 0.0458T + 999.92
~

994

993

992
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Temperature, T, °C

Figure IV.28. Water density as a function of temperature (data taken from

Streeter and Wylie, 1985).
 89

By Equation (IV- 3), the change in energy storage is computed for a selected

number of years, i.e. from 1983 to 1986 and 1989, where data for 1987 and 1988 are

inadequate for analysis. Seasonal characteristics in energy storage is shown in Figure

IV.29. The greatest amount of energy is stored in Lake Erie between the time period of

April and June. Energy storage between June and August is lower than that between April

and June. Energy release occurs between August and September as indicated by the

negative values in Figure IV.29. To further show characteristics from year to year, Figure

IV.30 is presented. It can be seen that a large energy storage between April and June such

as that in 1984 is followed by a large energy release between August and September. On

the other hand, a small energy storage between April and June such as the case in 1985 is

followed by a small energy release between August and September.

To examine the energy storage at each stratifying layer, Figure IV.31 is presented.

It shows how much energy is stored in each of the three stratification layers of Lake Erie

between April and August for the years of 1980 and 1982 to 1991, where data for 1981

are inadequate for analysis. To further examine the percentage of energy contained in

each stratifying layer, Figure IV.32 shows the percentage of total energy stored in each

layer. Both Figures IV.31 and IV.32 show that the epilimnion stores the most energy,

while the hypolimnion has the least amount of energy storage. Further results show that

70% to 80% of the total energy storage occurs in the epilimnion layer of Lake Erie. Solar

radiation penetrates the entire epilimnion while penetration is minimal in the

 90

hypolimnion. This perhaps provides an explanation for the significant difference in

energy storage between the epilimnion and hypolimnion. Wang and Seyed-Yagoobi

(1995) showed that at greater depths, solar radiation decreases. The amount of solar

radiation that is absorbed is dependent upon water clarity which can be measured as

turbidity.
 91

3E+13

2.5E+13

2E+13

1.5E+13
.1983
~

::E 11 1984
1E+13
~if .1985
<]
~ 1986
5E+12 .1989

-5E+12

-lE+ 13
April-June June-August August-September

Figure IV.29. Seasonal energy storage and release for Lake Erie.

3E+13

2.5E+ 13

2E+13

1.5E+ 13

=s lE+13
~
5E+12

-5E+ 12

-IE+13

Figure IV.30. Comparison of energy storage and release of various years for Lake
Erie.
 92

5.0E+13 . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . ,
• Epilimnion Layer
4.5E+13
• Metalimnion Layer
4.0E+13 • Hypolimnion Layer

3.5E+13

3.0E+13
~

::E'"' 2.5E+13
~
<l
2.0E+13

1.5E+13

1.0E+13

5.0E+12

O.OE+OO
1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Figure IV.3!. Energy storage from April to August in each of the stratifying layers
in Lake Erie.
100

80

(])
01)
~
;.....
0
~
o: 60
::>a
01)
;.....
(])
• Hypolimnion
s:= Layer
~
~
~
0 40 • Metalimnion
~ Layer
~
0
~ II Epilimnion
Layer
20

- - - --
o N M lr') \0 r- 00 0"1 o

- - -
oo

- - -
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0"1 0"1
0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1 0"1

Figure IV.32. Energy storage from April to August in each of the stratifying layers
as percent of total energy storage in Lake Erie.
 93

CHAPTER V

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

V.I Conclusion

Water quality in Lake Erie was successfully regionalized based on the kriging

analysis at a 95% confidence level. The use of a GIS allowed a graphical representation

of the regionalization results that is simple to understand and analysis of those results that

otherwise would not have been possible only ten years ago on a lake with a size of Lake

Erie. Spatial relationships of water quality in Lake Erie was analyzed using ArcView

GISTM and ArcView Spatial Analysf''". Since data collection for so many locations and

varied time spans cannot be performed by any single researcher, it is advantageous to use

GIS to spatially analyze water quality parameters in regions where sampling doesn't

exist. Analysis is aided by the GIS, since it would be virtually impossible to perform map

algebra on a grid image with an extent as large as Lake Erie.

Results show that the lake's ambient temperature during the summer months

intensifies the stratification between the warm waters of the epilimnion and cool waters

of the hypolimnion. As the thermocline intensifies, it deepens and intercepts with the lake
 94

bottom in portions of the central and western basins of Lake Erie, therefore eliminating

the hypolimnion. This is seen from the months of June to September where the

hypolimnion exists nearly for the entire lake in June and disappears except for the deepest

regions of the lake in the eastern basin.

Images of dissolved oxygen as percent saturation were successfully obtained by

removing temperature effects as described in this study. The results show that dissolved

oxygen decreases with an increase of depth in the same manner that temperature does

during the warm months of the year. Dissolved oxygen near the surface of Lake Erie are

close to saturation in all regions of the lake. On the other hand, the dissolved oxygen in

the hypolimnion are as low as 200/0 in the parts of the central basin for the month of

August.

The depth to mid metalimnion, i.e. thermocline, was determined to relate the

effect of zebra mussel activities to water clarity. Since water clarity is believed to be

improved by zebra mussel activities, it should result in a decrease of turbidity, an increase

of solar radiation penetration, an increase of temperature, and an increase of depth to mid

metalimnion. Based on the results from this study, a trend between the zebra mussel's

effect on water clarity and the depth to mid metalimnion cannot be clearly concluded.
 95

Results of total energy storage estimated by Equation (IV-3) show that the energy

storage between April and June is lower than that between June and August and a

negative value between August and September implies a energy release. In general, 80%

of the total energy storage and release occurs in the epilimnion layer of Lake Erie.

V.2 Recommendations

The preliminary analysis of energy storage conducted in this study was aimed to

link it to zebra mussel activities. However, a more comprehensive energy balance for

Lake Erie should be further developed to have a conclusive result. In the model, the heat

transfer should be explicitly estimated based on regionalized solar radiation

measurements, which were not done in this study. The portion of solar radiation that

penetrates the lake depths or is absorbed depends upon water clarity, especially turbidity.

Wang and Seyed-Yagoobi (1994, 1995) developed an empirical relation between

turbidity and solar radiation for solar ponds 1.5 meters in depth, but no more than 1.5

meters. A more realistic model to estimate the solar energy absorbed in the water as a

function of turbidity is needed. Furthermore, the convective heat transfer from wind, the

advected heat transfer due to water currents, and the energy inflow and outflow from

streams should also be considered.

 96

More data such as turbidity are warranted for more in-depth analysis. Calcium

data needs to be more complete for further analysis. Zebra mussel distribution data are

not available for this study and should be used for future analysis to relate the effects of

the zebra mussel to water quality. To study trends that implicate the invasion of the zebra

mussel in Lake Erie, a longer period of temperature and dissolved oxygen records than

what has already been collected is needed. Since the zebra mussel is believed to be

introduced into Lake St. Clair and later migrated to Lake Erie in 1986, at least 20 years of

data before 1986 and at least 10 years of data after 1986 is desired if a trend of

temperature or dissolved oxygen exists as a result of the zebra mussel invasion.

 97

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 100

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 101

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 102

ApPENDIX A

WATER QUALITY DATA FOR 1985

Table A.1. Temperature for Apri11985. Table A.2. Temperature for June 1985
ILongitude Latitude Temperature, °C
I I
(epilimnion layer).

-79.80 42.42 2.13

Longitude Latitude Temperature, °C
I
r--- -81.95 41.79 15.00
-80.09 42.47 9.33
-82.10 41.87 16.00
-79.89 42.52 2.06
-81.65 41.92 15.31
-79.62 42.54 2.50
ro-' -81.64 41.93 15.00
-79.69 42.68 2.50
-81.66 41.93 15.00
-81.95 41.79 5.70
-81.48 41.94 14.00
-81.84 41.86 14.40
-82.04 41.97 16.00
-81.48 41.94 5.33
r-- -81.76 41.98 15.00
-82.04 41.97 5.60
-81.01 42.08 14.00
-81.76 41.98 5.11
-81.58 42.11 14.00
-81.49 42.03 13.00
-81.67 42.28 15.00
-81.58 42.11 4.50
- -81.26 42.42 15.87
-81.25 42.12 4.60
-81.28 42.42 16.00
-81.83 42.16 14.83
-83.20 41.92 20.00
-80.86 42.24 14.40
r-- -83.04 41.97 19.00
-81.11 42.25 5.00
-81.67 42.28 4.57
-80.56 42.31 14.20
-81.21 42.43 7.25
-82.73 41.74 9.89
-83.02 41.83 10.40
-83.20 41.89 12.00
 103

Table A.3. Temperature for June 1985 Table A.4. Temperature for June 1985
(metalimnion layer). (hypolimnion layer).
I
~ongitude Latitude I Temperature, °C I I
ILongitude Latitude I Temperature, °C I
-81.95 41.79 15.00 -81.95 41.79 14.00
-82.10 41.87 16.00 -82.10 41.87 14.95
-81.65 41.92 15.00 -81.65 41.92 11.50
-81.64 41.93 15.00 -81.64 41.93 11.33
-81.66 41.93 15.00 -81.66 41.93 12.67
-81.48 41.94 14.00 -81.48 41.94 11.00
-82.04 41.97 16.00 -82.04 41.97 12.50
-81.76 41.98 15.00 -81.76 41.98 11.67
-81.01 42.08 14.00 -81.01 42.08 12.00
-81.58 42.11 14.00 -81.58 42.11 10.67
-81.67 42.28 15.00 -81.67 42.28 12.50
-81.26 42.42 12.47
-81.28 42.42 13.50
 104

Table A.5. Temperature for August 1985 Table A.6. Temperature for August 1985
(epilimnion layer). (metalimnion layer).
I
Longitude I Latitude I Temperature, °C I I
ILongitude Latitude I Temperature, °C
I
-79.80 42.42 22.00 -79.80 42.42 19.25
-80.09 42.47 22.00 -79.89 42.52 21.25
-79.89 42.52 21.89
-79.62 42.54 19.75
-79.62 42.54 22.17
-79.69 42.68 19.33
-79.60 42.57 22.50
-81.73 41.72 16.50
-79.69 42.68 22.00
-79.59 42.81 19.75 -81.95 41.79 20.50
-79.58 42.83 21.00 -81.84 41.86 22.00
-81.73 41.72 23.00 -82.10 41.87 22.00
-81.95 41.79 22.30 -81.65 41.92 22.20
-81.84 41.86 23.00
-81.48 41.94 21.20
-82.10 41.87 22.44
-82.04 41.97 19.56
-81.65 41.92 22.60
-81.76 41.98 22.00
-81.64 41.93 23.00
-81.66 41.93 22.29 -80.97 42.03 23.00
-81.48 41.94 22.20 -82.01 42.05 20.86
-82.04 41.97 22.40 -81.58 42.11 22.00
-81.76 41.98 22.30 -81.25 42.12 22.00
-80.97 42.03 23.50
-80.49 42.14 21.50
-81.49 42.03 23.00
-81.83 42.16 23.00
-82.01 42.05 22.17
-81.11 42.25 20.83
-81.58 42.11 22.20
-81.25 42.12 22.00 -81.67 42.28 20.60

-80.49 42.14 23.00 -80.56 42.31 16.00

-81.83 42.16 23.00 -81.26 42.42 22.25
-80.86 42.24 23.50 -81.21 42.43 20.25
-81.11 42.25 22.00
-81.67 42.28 22.25
-80.56 42.31 23.00
-81.26 42.42 22.11
-81.21 42.43 22.00
-82.73 41.74 22.83
-83.02 41.83 22.22
-83.20 41.89 22.33
-83.20 41.92 23.50
-83.03 41.97 22.50
 105

Table A.7. Temperature for August 1985 Table A.8. Temperature for September 1985
(hypolimnion layer). (epilimnion layer).
I
ILongitude Latitude I Temperature, °C
I I
ILongitude Latitude I Temperature, °C I
-79.80 42.42 6.64 -79.80 42.42 21.00

-80.09 42.47 9.00 -80.09 42.47 22.00

-79.89 42.52 21.40
-79.89 42.52 7.12
-79.62 42.54 21.00
-79.62 42.54 6.91
-79.60 42.57 21.00
-79.60 42.57 8.67
-79.69 42.68 21.00
-79.69 42.68 9.20
-79.59 42.81 21.20
-79.59 42.81 5.00 -82.64 41.51 22.25
-81.73 41.72 14.00 -82.61 41.52 22.00
-81.95 41.79 14.20 -82.62 41.55 23.00
-81.84 41.86 17.00 -82.49 41.57 22.00

-82.10 41.87 15.40 -81.73 41.72 22.33

-81.95 41.79 21.33
-81.65 41.92 14.92
-81.84 41.86 22.33
-81.48 41.94 17.13
-82.10 41.87 21.63
-82.04 41.97 15.75
-82.17 41.88 21.25
-81.76 41.98 17.27
-81.65 41.92 22.69
-80.97 42.03 17.50 -81.48 41.94 21.50
-81.49 42.03 19.67 -82.04 41.97 21.33
-82.01 42.05 16.44 -81.76 41.98 21.50
-81.58 42.11 18.67 -80.97 42.03 22.00

-81.25 42.12 18.40 -81.49 42.03 23.00

-82.01 42.05 22.00
-80.49 42.14 14.00
-81.58 42.11 21.50
-81.83 42.16 17.00
-81.25 42.12 21.00
-80.86 42.24 21.50
-80.49 42.14 22.25
-81.11 42.25 18.14
-81.83 42.16 22.75
-81.67 42.28 16.80 -80.86 42.24 21.25
-80.56 42.31 14.00 -81.11 42.25 21.00
-81.26 42.42 20.60 -81.67 42.28 20.33
-81.21 42.43 16.50 -80.56 42.31 21.75
-81.26 42.42 22.65
-81.21 42.43 21.00
 106

Table A.9. Temperature for September 1985 Table A.10. Temperature for September 1985
(metalimnion layer). (hypolimnion layer).
I I
Longitude Latitude I
Temperature, °C
I I
t Longitude Latitude I Temperature, °C
I
-79.80 42.42 15.50 -79.80 42.42 6.67
-80.09 42.47 10.00 -80.09 42.47 5.00
-79.89 42.52 15.00 -79.89 42.52 5.50
-79.62 42.54 16.00 -79.62 42.54 6.00
-79.60 42.57 10.00 -79.60 42.57 5.50
-79.69 42.68 17.50 -79.69 42.68 8.00
-81.73 41.72 16.00 -79.59 42.81 9.00
-81.95 41.79 15.00
-81.84 41.86 15.00
-82.10 41.87 17.33
-81.65 41.92 21.22
-82.04 41.97 16.00
-81.76 41.98 18.50
-81.49 42.03 15.00
-82.01 42.05 17.50
-81.58 42.11 21.00
-81.25 42.12 15.00
-80.49 42.14 15.00
-81.11 42.25 19.00
-81.67 42.28 16.00
 107

Table A.11. Dissolved Oxygen for April 1985. Table A.12. Dissolved Oxygen for August 1985
ILongitude ILatitude IDissolved Oxygen, mg/I] (epilimnion layer).

-79.80 42.42 13.00

I I
ILongitude Latitude Dissolved Oxygen, mg/q
-79.80 42.42 9.00
-79.89 42.52 12.94
-79.89 42.52 9.17
-79.62 42.54 13.00
-79.62 42.54 9.00
-79.69 42.68 12.25
-79.69 42.68 9.00
-81.95 41.79 12.56
-81.95 41.79 8.30
-81.48 41.94 13.00
-81.48 41.94 8.44
-82.04 41.97 11.70
-82.04 41.97 8.60
-81.76 41.98 12.33
-81.76 41.98 8.50
-81.58 42.11 13.13
-81.01 42.08 8.70
-81.25 42.12 13.30
-81.58 42.11 8.50
-81.11 42.25 13.14
-81.25 42.12 8.50
-81.67 42.28 13.00
-81.11 42.25 8.20
-81.21 42.43 13.14
-81.67 42.28 9.00
-82.73 41.74 12.22
-81.21 42.43 8.63
-83.02 41.83 11.30
-81.21 42.43 8.57
-83.20 41.89 11.86
-82.73 41.74 7.75
-83.02 41.83 8.17
-83.20 41.89 7.83
 108

Table A.13. Dissolved Oxygen for August 1985 Table A.14. Dissolved Oxygen for August 1985
(metalimnion layer). (hypolimnion layer).
I I
ILongitude Latitude Dissolved Oxygen, mg/q I I
ILongitude Latitude Dissolved Oxygen, mg/q
-79.80 42.42 8.50 -79.80 42.42 9.73
-79.89 42.52 9.00 -79.89 42.52 10.07
-79.62 42.54 8.50 -79.62 42.54 9.88
-79.69 42.68 8.33 -79.69 42.68 7.70
-81.95 41.79 6.25 -81.95 41.79 1.00
-81.48 41.94 7.20 -81.48 41.94 3.00
-82.04 41.97 5.22 -82.04 41.97 2.00
-81.76 41.98 8.50 -81.76 41.98 4.18
-81.01 42.08 6.67 -81.01 42.08 3.86
-81.58 42.11 7.00 -81.58 42.11 4.33
-81.25 42.12 9.00 -81.25 42.12 4.20
-81.11 42.25 6.83 -81.11 42.25 4.43
-81.67 42.28 8.20 -81.67 42.28 3.00
-81.21 42.43 6.75 -81.21 42.43 1.00
 109

Table A.15. Total Calcium for August 1985 Table A.16. Total Calcium for August 1985
(epilimnion layer). (hypolimnion layer).
I
ILongitude Latitude ITotal Calcium, mg/L
I I
ILongitude Latitude ITotal Calcium, mg/L I
-79.80 42.42 35.50 -79.80 42.42 36.50
-79.89 42.52 35.50 -79.89 42.52 37.00
-79.62 42.54 35.50 -79.62 42.54 37.00
-79.69 42.68 35.50 -79.69 42.68 37.00
-81.95 41.79 35.00 -81.95 41.79 36.00
-81.48 41.94 35.33 -81.48 41.94 36.00
-82.04 41.97 35.33 -82.04 41.97 35.00
-81.76 41.98 35.00 -81.76 41.98 36.33
-81.01 42.08 35.00 -81.01 42.08 35.67
-81.58 42.11 35.00 -81.58 42.11 36.00
-81.25 42.12 34.67 -81.25 42.12 36.00
-81.11 42.25 34.67 -81.11 42.25 35.50
-81.67 42.28 34.67 -81.67 42.28 35.50
-81.21 42.43 35.00
-82.73 41.74 31.33
-83.02 41.83 29.17
-83.20 41.89 29.00
-83.20 41.92 29.00
-83.03 41.97 29.00
 110

ApPENDIXB

WATER QUALITY IMAGES PRODUCED IN THIS STUDY

Table B.1. Images produced for 1980.

Temp DO Ca

JUD

Aug x x x xx xx xx
Sept

JUD

Aug
Sept

JUD

Aug x x x xx xx xx
Sept

xx = indicates that dissolved oxygen as percent saturation also produced in addition to

dissolved oxygen images from measured samples.
 111

Apr
Jun x x
Aug x x x xx xx xx x
Sept x x

Aug x x x xx xx xx
Sept x

Apr
Jun x x x
Aug x x x xx xx xx x x
Sept x x x

Apr
Jun x x x
Aug x x x xx xx xx x x
Sept x x x

xx = indicates that dissolved oxygen as percent saturation also produced in addition to

dissolved oxygen images created from measured samples.
 112

Apr
Jun
Aug x x x xx XX xx x x
Sept

Table B.9. Images produced for 1988.

Jun
Aug x x x xx xx xx x x
Sept

Apr
Jun x x
Aug x x x xx xx xx x x
Sept x x

Jun X
Aug x x x xx xx xx x x
Sept x

xx = indicates that dissolved oxygen as percent saturation also produced in addition to

dissolved oxygen images created from measured samples.
 113

Apr
Jun X
Aug x x x xx xx xx x x
Sept x

Jun
Aug x
Sept x x

Apr
Jun
Aug x xx x
Sept x x

xx = indicates that dissolved oxygen as percent saturation also produced in addition to

dissolved oxygen images created from measured samples.