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The Trillion Dollar Opportunity in Grid Decarbonization - by Shayle Kann - Energy Impact Partners - Medium
The Trillion Dollar Opportunity in Grid Decarbonization - by Shayle Kann - Energy Impact Partners - Medium
The Trillion Dollar Opportunity in Grid Decarbonization - by Shayle Kann - Energy Impact Partners - Medium
The rise of renewable energy over the past decade has been staggering. Whereas ten
years ago wind and solar were expensive niche players in the electricity mix, this year
they could represent more than three quarters of new electricity generation capacity,
due primarily to their newly superior economics.
Despite much hand-wringing about the failures of Cleantech 1.0 and the challenges of
scaling a business in the energy sector, the growth of these technologies spawned
multiple categories of successful companies over the past decade. Among them:
Residential solar pioneers — Sunrun, Vivint Solar, Sunnova, SolarCity (all IPOs)
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12/05/2021 The trillion dollar opportunity in grid decarbonization | by Shayle Kann | Energy Impact Partners | Medium
But the hard work has only just begun. Zero-carbon sources comprised around 36% of
all generation in the U.S. last year, of which wind and solar combined for just 11% (the
remainder was largely hydro and nuclear). Meanwhile, a dizzying array of actors —
including states, utilities, cities, and enterprises — are setting goals of 100% clean or
renewable energy by midcentury or sooner.
In order to fully (or nearly) decarbonize the grid, especially absent a game-changing
technology like nuclear fusion, we will need a massive mobilization of technology and
capital for decades.
Here’s a rough idea of what might be in store as we decarbonize the grid over the
coming decades (all back-of-the-envelope math; come at me, energy nerds):
As a baseline, to build out enough wind and solar* to decarbonize the current U.S.
grid, we would need to increase their combined capacity nearly 5X (from ~200 GW
to >900 GW). This alone would mean the mobilization of, say, $700 billion of
capital (assuming $1/watt across technologies and markets).
But in fact, we’ll simultaneously be hoping to decarbonize the rest of the economy
in part by electrifying other sectors — chiefly transportation, but potentially also
space heating and industrial processes. If all those sectors were fully electrified (a
tall order, to be sure), they would nearly double total electricity load in the U.S.
And so in order to decarbonize while fully electrifying, we would instead need up to
~2,000 GW of renewables and ~$1.8 trillion of capital investment (not even
accounting for the capital required for added transmission and grid infrastructure).
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12/05/2021 The trillion dollar opportunity in grid decarbonization | by Shayle Kann | Energy Impact Partners | Medium
Source: Energy Impact Partners. Note: Long-term figures are meant to be illustrative of an upper-bound
scenario for renewables; assumes decarbonization entirely via wind/solar and full electrification of
light/heavy duty vehicles, building space heating and industrial heat.
*While wind and solar are on the clearest path to massive scale, I should note the exciting
prospects for so-called “baseload zero-carbon resources” like next-generation geothermal
and nuclear, any of which could help mitigate grid weirding.
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12/05/2021 The trillion dollar opportunity in grid decarbonization | by Shayle Kann | Energy Impact Partners | Medium
But the opportunity here is enormous, and there is much innovation still to come. Here
are a few additional areas where I believe there will be significant value creation over
the next few years:
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12/05/2021 The trillion dollar opportunity in grid decarbonization | by Shayle Kann | Energy Impact Partners | Medium
Business models that combine resilience with grid flexibility, particularly at the
residential level.
And more. There are opportunities in better weather analytics, long-duration energy
storage, green hydrogen, heating electrification, GHG tracking/monitoring, power
market forecasting, and on and on.
I’ve been heartened over the past year to see an impressive new guard of innovators
enter the space, hoping to make their mark on the planet. With any luck, they’ll
succeed.
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