Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343

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Energy Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

A model for predicting the potential diffusion of solar energy systems

in complex urban environments
Maria La Gennusa, Giovanni Lascari, Gianfranco Rizzo, Gianluca Scaccianoce, Giancarlo Sorrentino n
Dipartimento dell’Energia, Universita degli Studi di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze – Building 9, 90128 Palermo, Italy

a r t i c l e i n f o abstract

Article history: The necessity to reduce greenhouse gases emission produced by energy building consumptions and to
Received 9 December 2010 cut the energy bill (mainly due to the use of fossil sources) leads to the employment of renewable
Accepted 19 May 2011 energy sources in new planned scenarios. In particular, more and more often municipal energy and
Available online 14 June 2011
environmental plans pay great attention to the possibilities of employment of the solar technologies at
Keywords: urban scale.
Solar systems Solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) systems are, by far, the most suitable tools to be utilized in
Urban energy planning urban areas. Obviously, the proper adoption of such systems in buildings does call for the availability of
GIS calculation methods suitable to provide the actual level of exploitation of solar energy in urban layouts.
In this work, a procedure for evaluating the geographical energy potential of building roofs in urban
areas is proposed; in particular, the amount of surface on the roof that could be used for the installation
of systems able to capture solar radiation for the energy production is investigated. The proposed
procedure is based on the use of the GIS technology and 3D cartography. The effectiveness of the
proposed method is assessed by means of an application to the town of Palermo (Italy).
& 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

0. Introduction is mandatory in all the Member States. This Directive, among

The building sector, mainly referring to residential and commer-
cial buildings, encompasses a large part of the final energy consump-
tion of developed countries. In Italy, for example, as far as 30% of the
country energy uses are aimed at management of buildings in order
to efficiently operate them and confer them suitable indoor comfort
conditions. Such important segment of the energy consumption is
obviously taken into account when new planning actions take place
in a given territorial context. With regard to the energy planning,
many developed countries, conscious of the strategic importance of
the building sector and according to the new standards and rules
released by the European Union, with the aim of accomplishing
the Kyoto protocol goals (United Nations, 1997) and the target
‘‘20–20–20’’ (EP, 2009), have planned (or are planning) several
actions aimed at a more rational energy use and a cleaner
energy production by means of, for example, renewable sources
(Viquier et al., 2003; del Rı́o González et al., 2005; De Filippis and
Scarano, 2010).
In this context, particularly, it must be pointed out the role
played by the sustainability constraints is induced by the neces-
sary limitation to the recourse to fossil fuels (Dagoumas et al.,
2005) and the important role is played by the new European
Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (EP, 2002), that
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: þ39 91 23861910.
E-mail address: sorrentino@dream.unipa.it (G. Sorrentino).
other things, promotes the growth and development of various
renewable resources, depending on the peculiarities of different
sites. Recently, this Directive has been recasted (EP, 2010), introdu-
cing more stringent, even if not mandatory, parameters.
In this context, solar energy may obviously play a fundamental
role. Moreover, an extensive exploitation of the solar irradiation
in urban zones appears more and more clearly as an essential and
practicable strategy to promote sustainable development.
The Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology could
usefully assist the planner in the evaluation of the energy potential
of building roofs in urban areas and, in particular, the amount of
surface of the roof that could be used for the installation of systems
able to capture solar irradiation for energy production.
This paper, based on this technology, has been developed
following the methodology applied by some of the authors in the
framework of the redaction of the Energy Plan of Sicily (Sicilian
Region, 2009).
1. Energy policy at urban level
The current incentive system can make solar technologies (and
particularly the PV ones) very attractive for customers. In Italy, for
instance, the high value of the kWh produced by PV systems, due
to the current incentive plan, is pushing the demand for financing
such solar systems even too high.

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.031
5336 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343

Such incentivizing system has been called ‘‘Conto Energia’’, Moreover, the increasing attention of public opinion to envir-
since it provides funds for the actual energy production, unlike onmental problems urges much more designers and builders to
the previously unsuccessfully adopted ‘‘Conto Capitale’’ system, utilize renewable resources in new buildings.
which supported the initial investment costs. By the way, the
actual mean costs of thermal and PV systems in Italy are 420 and
650 h/m2, respectively.
3. GIS techniques for the solar energy exploitation
At a local level, administrations are involved in this process on
in urban areas
two sides: simplifying the procedure course of the authorizations
needed for the installation on one hand, and promoting the use of
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were born
PV systems by installing new systems on public buildings on the
out of a need to have a method for collecting and processing
other hand. Concerning this last point, local administrations may
territorial information both in graphic and alphanumeric form.
be the driving force for the widespreading of solar systems and, at
Thanks to their fast dissemination; these techniques have become
the same time, induce positive effects on social and environmen-
indispensable tools for the responsible of the operating decisions
tal aspects. In fact, these actions could lead to an increment of the
involving territory; in fact, the GIS techniques allow to collect all
level of occupation, boosting the solar components and installa-
necessary information for analyzing various future scenarios
tion enterprises, and, incidentally, to an improvement on the air
related to different possible options in order to single out the
quality, because of the minor amount of CO2 produced; furthermore,
optimal one.
it can obviously lead to consistent savings on the energy bills.
The development of the GIS techniques represents the migra-
At central government level, instead, such incentivation plan
tion from a not integrated to an integrated information manage-
has to be carefully analyzed. In fact, as far as the environmental
ment in the designing, planning and management of territory and
aspects are concerned, this intervention for promoting PV sys-
environment processes (European Project MUTATE, 2005). There-
tems could cause an economic exposure greater than the penalty
fore, GIS techniques constitute a radical change in handling
to pay for not achieving the Kyoto targets: in such a case, rather
geographical information; in fact, it consents to put together
than realizing these interventions, the administration could be
territorial information of various data type, allowing to query the
induced to pay for the market cost of the ton of carbon dioxide,
territory and to enrich it with new attributes.
according to the Emission Trading system (EP, 2001, 2003a,
This potential makes GIS techniques an ideal tool for collect-
2003b), and to spend the relative savings, equal to the difference
ing, managing and implementing the so-called ‘‘Decision Support
between the not invested amount and the penalty paid, for other
Strategy’’ (DSS) (Department of the Environment, 1987; Arnaud
types of interventions. This analysis obviously does not take the
et al., 1993; Worboys, 1997).
previously reported social aspects into account.
Moreover, the introduction of GIS techniques has produced an
It has also to be pointed out that, in order to boost solar
updating of planning strategy tools, as well as made the activity of
technologies at an urban scale, reliable evaluation tools, that
cooperation between institutions, which act on the same territory
allow for the assessment of the capacity of installation and of the
and, therefore, make reference to the same database of informa-
most suitable zones, should be available.
tion possible (Sicilian Region, 2002). In short, GIS techniques
represent standard tools for the ‘‘government of territory’’.
The analysis and calculation of useable surfaces in the urban
2. Solar systems in urban areas layout for the exploitation of the solar energy (including environ-
mental, architectural and exposure constraints) can be achieved
Solar thermal and photovoltaic systems have attracted an by means of the application of GIS techniques.
increasing attention as a technology capable of supplying sustain-
able electricity, as well as for their modularity (Jackson and Oliver,
2000) that allows the employment of actually available unshaded
4. The proposed methodology for the assessment of suitable
surface.
urban areas for solar systems installation
These technologies are suitable for being utilized particularly in
towns (energy sinks) thanks to their features, like the following:
The assessment of the extension of suitable roof surface for
installing solar systems to be utilized by Public Administrations
 low upkeep requirement;
for incentive actions is much complex; in fact, it depends on the
 negligible acoustics impact, as they do not usually have
three-dimensional distribution of urban layout and the morphologic
moving parts;
characteristics of the territory where the urban area is located
 reduction in the dependence on oil from other countries, often
(Laurini, 2001). In this work, only the geographical potential will
characterized by unstable governments;
be evaluated, that is always greater than the actually installable
 lack of pollution during their duty cycle;
surface.
 easy installation;
In other works, more easily available parameters have been
 integrability in the envelope of buildings, with possibility of
utilized, like the GDP, the floor net surface and the number of
partially or totally replacing some components of the roof;
buildings, obtaining in this way more general results (Hoogwijck,
 easy connection to the local power grid (only for photovoltaic
2004; Chaudhari et al., 2004).
systems);
In order to overcome these difficulties, a procedure for asses-
 a growing importance in regulations devoted to the improve-
sing the extension of superficial urban areas useable for the
ment of the energy performance of buildings with the relevant
installation of solar systems is proposed, which utilizes informa-
certificate (EP, 2002, 2010).
tion obtained from technical and digital cartography.
To such aim, GIS techniques that allow to simultaneously show
Therefore, providing energy where it is demanded allows a the actual surface hit by solar radiation and all restrictions on it
reduction in the costly import of fuels, the inevitable enlargement will be utilized.
of the power grid and, thus, a mitigation of the environmental Fig. 1 shows the flowchart of the proposed procedure with the
impacts. relative steps of calculation.
 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343
Fig. 1. Flowchart of the proposed procedure.
The proposed procedure could be a simple and easy to use tool
for local administrations involved in main assessments of energy
potential linked to the use of renewable energy sources inside
urban areas, characterized by buildings mainly more than two
floors high. As that, trees shadowing are not taken into account at
this stage of the design.
4.1. Territorial data processing
The necessary input data for the application of the proposed
procedure are the vector coverage of the urban layout and the
digital terrain model (DTM) of the urban area.
Utilizing the information provided by the vector coverage and
the absolute elevation of buildings above sea level, it is possible to
realize a 3D mapping of the urban layout. Then, it is necessary
to convert this set of data into a suitable format, which allows to
merge it with the DTM. In the proposed procedure, the ‘‘GRID’’
format is used, which is a special array of pixels, each of which
holds a single or several territorial information, for example the
elevation above sea level. The accuracy of the conversion process
depends on the territorial area represented by a single pixel (cell
dimension of the GRID).
These sets of data, opportunely arranged and coupled, consti-
tute the overall digital elevation model (DEM) (Cadima, 2000).
Beyond these data, it will be necessary to acquire (or to draw up)
a restriction map of obstacles preventing the installation of solar
systems (such as historical buildings, etc.).
5337
4.2. The shadowing factor
In order to calculate the shadowing factor, the hillshading exten-
sion (ArcViews GIS, 1996a, 1996b) is applied to the GRID, that
allows to estimate the size of shadowing surface at any appointed
time. Only shadowing due to orography and near buildings has been
considered here.
The result is another GRID, whose cells are characterized by a
numerical attribute, an integer, ranging from 0 (‘‘shadow’’) to 255
(‘‘highest normal-beam solar radiation’’).
Having previously set the dimension of the elementary cell, it
will be possible to evaluate the extension of the shadowed
surfaces by means of a simple cells counting. Starting from this
datum, the value of the shadowing factor, fsh, can be calculated,
and defined as the ratio between the extension of the shadowed
and the whole surface of the coverings.
By means of this factor, the usable surface for a particular hour
of the day can be obtained. The following step consists in setting
the suitable criteria for the determination of the surfaces that are
shadowed only in some hours of the day.
A direct proportionality between net surface and collected
solar irradiation exists as far as surfaces with free horizon
exposed to solar irradiation are concerned. Such direct propor-
tionality can be found between the area of the surface suitable to
the installation of solar systems and the increment of the cost and
of economic/energy gains as well.
Unfortunately, urban layout, as previously said, determines a
not always negligible shadowing of surfaces and, for such reason,
not all the net surface is always sunny. Therefore, only a certain
amount of surface of the building coverings is sunny in the whole
considered daytime (from 8a.m. to 6p.m.) and can be dealt with
the ideal case (lack of shadowing). For greater considered values
of surface, the direct proportionality is not valid any more and a
maximum admissible deviation from the ideal case (D) should be
set (Fig. 2).
This admissible deviation should be chosen by local adminis-
trations based on a cost–benefit analysis, taking into account both
energy and environmental aspects of the system to install.
The proposed elaboration allows to obtain a multiplicative
factor that takes into account the shadowing, (1 fsh), that
represents the optimal percentage of surface for the installation
of solar systems with respect to total available surface.
4.3. The tilt factor
In the calculation of the shadowing factor, all the building
coverings of urban layout have been considered as flat; therefore,
Fig. 2. Selection of the optimal percentage of surface for the installation of solar
systems.
5338 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343
in order to take the different typologies of buildings (pitched, flat)
into account, another reduction factor of the beam solar irradia-
tion has to be considered: the tilt factor, fT.
4.3.1. Flat coverings
The effective extension of the area of surfaces with flat cover-
ings is directly obtainable from urban planimetry.
Unlike the case of pitched roofs, in order to dispose the solar
picking up systems in the optimal way, some support structures,
giving the desired slope to the panels, are needed in these
typologies of coverings. The strings of collectors are disposed on
parallel rows, appropriately spaced in order to avoid mutual
shadowing.
For taking these technical aspects into account, the potentially
utilizable surface of flat coverings will be reduced of a proper tilt
factor, fT1 . As an example and when specific evaluations are not
available, the following value for the tilt factor can be utilized:
fT1 ¼ 0:50
The choice of this value is a compromise between the number
of panels installed and a minor utilizations of them because of the
shadowing. If the tilt factor of the panels is 301 and the utilized
roof surface is 50%, a shadowing angle of 241 is obtained, leading
to shading losses equal to nearly 12% (The German Energy
Society, 2008).
4.3.2. Pitched coverings
In order to determine the potentially utilizable surface for the
installation of solar systems, the following factors have to be
considered:
 the pitch slope, a, with respect to the horizon;
 a ‘‘urban’’ multiplicative factor, Cesp, taking the pitch exposi-
tion of coverings into account, i.e. the percentage of pitch
surface showing a compatible orientation with the utilization
of active solar technologies.
Therefore, the potentially utilizable surface of pitch covering
will be reduced by a tilt factor equal to
1 feasibility of the interventions for the municipality will be argued.
fT2 ¼ Cesp
cos a
4.4. The potentially utilizable surface
After obtaining the shadowing and tilt factors and considering
the actual extension of both pitched coverings (projected on a
horizontal plane), Sf, and flat ones, Sp, present in urban layout, it is
possible to determine the theoretical potential of surface utiliz-
able for the installation of solar system, in the examined town, by
means of the following expression:
Spot ¼ ½ðSf fT1 Þ þðSp fT2 Þð1fsh Þ
It is important to observe that the potentially utilizable sur-
face, obtained by means of the previous expression, also includes
the needed surface both for the installation of other plant
components and the upkeep of the whole system.
Table 1
Application levels of the proposed procedure.
Type of study Main inputs
Analysis at an urban level Digital cartography
Analysis at a district and/or quarter level Digital cartography
Analysis at single building level Digital cartography and orthophoto
4.5. Levels of application of the proposed procedure
The methodology for the assessment of the candidate solar urban
areas proposed in this work can be applied to different levels of
urban scale (district, quarter or single building). In Table 1, the
different levels of application of the proposed procedure are
described. As it is shown, the methodology applied to the different
urban scales allows to carry out a reliable and easily applicable
assessment of the energy potential connected to the use of renew-
able sources inside the urban layout. Therefore, it represents a useful
instrument in support of local administrations involved in planning
and programming processes at an urban level.
The application of the procedure to a district and/or quarter
level allows to single out the critical points of the analyzed
territory. Therefore, it is possible to compile a scale of priority
of intervention. For example, considering both the available
surfaces for the installation of solar systems (Spot) and the district
and/or quarter house density (D), it is possible to define the
ð1Þ
following priority index:
  
Spot, circ D
PI ¼ P P circ ð4Þ
i Spot, circ,i i Dcirc,i
by means of which it is possible to select the most suitable
zones of the town for installing active solar systems. According to
Eq. (4), a bigger population density is considered to result in
larger energy consumptions and, consequently, a higher priority.
The study could be further improved utilizing small scale
aerial georeferenced images, by which the effective typology of
the roof (flat or pitch), orientation, architectural importance of the
building and further details useful for checking the actual feasi-
bility of solar systems installation can be obtained.
5. A case study: the town of Palermo
The above mentioned procedure will be here applied to the
urban context of the town of Palermo, for which the actual
availability of roof surfaces is singled out in sight of the installa-
tion of solar technologies (Gucciardi et al., 2007). Moreover, the
ð2Þ
5.1. Description of the site
The town of Palermo, capital of the region of Sicily, is considered
the nodal, cultural and economic point between the Mediterranean
Sea and Europe; as well known, this town is characterized by a mild
climate, leading to only 751 Heating Degree Day. The town of
Palermo constitutes a rather emblematic example of urban layouts
of the typical towns of the Mediterranean basin and, generally, of
the towns characterized by a valuable historic center and suburbs
essentially constituted by multistore buildings.
Analyzing the territory information gathered from the digital
ð3Þ
cartography of the town, the building heritage of Palermo has
been evaluated. From this analysis, it has been pointed out that
the volumetric distribution between the different districts is quite
homogenous (near 10%), excepting ‘‘Liberta -Monte Pellegrino’’
district whose distribution is near 26%, as it is shown in Table 2.
Main results
Assessing the propensity of urban layout to the application of solar technologies
Singling out territorial priorities for the adoption of energy policies
Checking the actual feasibility of the plan at a punctual level
 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343 5339

In the same table, further information characterizing the different random distribution for pitches exposure, it ensues that the
districts are also reported. coefficient of exposure, Cexp, is equal to 0.25, a value that simply
Palermo is one of the richest sites in European and Italian takes into account the average pitch tilt for the whole town.
context as far as solar irradiation is concerned. For this reason, a Furthermore, in the proposed methodology, in order to con-
particular importance is assigned to the opportunity of exploita- sider the different typologies of coverings, it has been assumed
tion of solar systems, relating to their possibility of integration that buildings built before 1945 (that is 12,108 buildings, equal to
with the existing buildings. 29% of the total number of buildings) have pitch coverings, while
the other ones (that is 29,259 buildings, equal to 71% of the total)
have flat coverings (ISTAT, 2001).
5.2. Main characteristics of the roof buildings of the town of Palermo
At urban level, shadowing cannot be disregarded, both for
orography and mutual obstructions; in fact, sometimes it is not
By a general consideration and taking into account the latitude
advisable the installation of solar systems on seemingly suitable
of the locality (j ¼381N), it can be asserted that the optimal
surfaces.
condition for the exploitation of solar irradiation can be obtained
for the surfaces facing south and tilted between 201 and 401 with
respect to the horizon. Taking into account the average tilt angle 5.3. Evaluation of the potentially utilizable surface
of the pitch of Palermo (that is 251), the solar collectors can be laid
directly on the pitch covering (AA.VV., 1998). In order to assess a potential use in building coverings by
As far as the tilt factor for flat and pitch coverings is concerned, exploiting the potentialities of GIS techniques, in this work,
a value, respectively, equal to 0.28 and 0.5, has been evaluated, multiplicative factors that can express the actual extension of
where an average tilt angle of pitches a ¼251 with respect to the sunny surfaces have been calculated. All the buildings in the old
horizon has been considered (AA.VV., 1998). town center have been excluded from this analysis for esthetic,
As far as the exposition of net surfaces are concerned, satis- cultural and prescribing reasons.
factory levels of solar irradiation can be obtained also for surfaces All the elaborations, developed in GIS environment, have been
facing from south east to south west; considering a totally carried on with data coming from the technical cartography
documentation at scale 1:2000 of Palermo (Municipality of
Table 2 Palermo, 1991), from which a suitable ‘‘vector coverage’’ of the
Main characteristics of the town of Palermo. urban layout has been realized.
The database associated with the vector coverage just
Districts Population District Built surface Built volume described was enriched with information related to the municipal
surface (m2) (m2)
(m3) (%)
masterplan of the town of Palermo, like subdivision into districts,
presence of sport and functional/service areas, green zones,
Colli 79,196 24,115,698 1,495,414 22,194,491 12 cultural monuments and so on for further analyses.
Centro 21,987 2,535,843 1,067,759 17,171,770 9 The data set, once converted into GRID format and combined
Storico
with an orographic model (DTM), was used to conduct a series of
Lib.-M. 128,950 14,663,491 2,533,725 50,907,421 27
Pellegrino simulations of scenarios based on different positions of the sun. In
Monte 119,220 17,451,247 1,838,838 25,471,486 13 particular, plotting the path of the sun relative to the latitude
Cuccio (381) of Palermo (Fig. 3), values of the angles of zenith and relative
Maredolce 75,566 20,088,948 1,073,281 15,101,899 8 azimuths were obtained for a typical day from each month of the
Monte Gallo 71,641 33,372,636 2,116,758 17,301,879 9
Messina 73,807 21,703,230 1,546,648 17,720,963 9
year and, for each of these, at five different hours (8:00, 10:00,
Marinae 12:00, 14:00 and 16:00). It is important to note that, in this
Oreto 107,800 26,124,288 1,862,926 23,161,295 12 scheme, the typical day for each month represents its climatic
678,167 160,055,381 13,535,349 189,031,204 100 behavior in terms of solar radiation; this day is called ‘‘monthly
average day’’.

Fig. 3. Sun chart for the town of Palermo.

5340 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343
For each simulation carried out, the percentage fraction of
shadowed surfaces (fsh) with respect to the cell dimension of the
GRID (1 m  1 m) has been calculated.
For each simulated scenario, the percentages of sunny surfaces
were calculated; the results of these analyses are shown below
(see Fig. 4).
The simple graphic representation shown in Fig. 4 allows the
evaluation, at an urban scale, of the different behavior of the
building infrastructure in four significant months (one for each
season) at different hours of the day. It is possible, in fact, to note
that, in the winter months, a significantly strong variation in the
overall percentage exists in the hours in which the position of the
sun is near the horizon (dawn and sunset); this variation, more
evident in the afternoon hours, depends not only on the different
solar positions but also on the particular morphology of the town. In
fact, the town of Palermo has predominantly grown up in a SE–NW
direction, due to the surrounding mountains, which, in the hours
before sunset and after dawn, constitute a natural obstacle to the
penetration of solar irradiation to the center of the urban area.
The results like this together are able to construct an initial
tool for evaluation and support for decisions about the use of
economic resources allocated to various local administrations for
the utilization of renewable energy resources. However, it is clear
that local administrations are needed for a more detailed analysis
of the availability of solar irradiation, which allows to obtain
some information for the different areas of the city. Deepening
the analysis to the scale of the districts of a town, in fact, a trend is
noted in the availability of solar irradiation depending on both the
type of building infrastructure and the particular morphology of
the examined zone. For the case studied, a relative study of the
various districts of the town of Palermo has been carried out.
As an example, results from two districts that are positioned in
opposite urban areas, one in the NW (‘‘Colli’’) and the other in the
SW (‘‘Maredolce’’) zone, are shown.
Analyzing these results (Fig. 5), it is possible to see how the
two districts present a different trend in the hours in which
the sun is at its lowest; in particular, it is possible to show how
the morning hours give percentage values for sunny surfaces
lower for Maredolce in the SE, while the situation is reversed for
the afternoon hours.
Fig. 4. Hourly trends of the percentage of surfaces receiving unshaded direct solar irradiation in the town of Palermo and deviation from the average of the respective
values for the districts.
Finally, the theoretic potential of utilizable surface for the
eventual installation of solar systems in the different districts of
the town of Palermo has been evaluated. For the calculation of the
multiplicative factor fsh, a null deviation D has been set, that is only
always sunny surfaces, even in the most disadvantageous conditions
that are in the morning or afternoon hours of winter months
(8a.m. and 6p.m.), have been considered. The results of this analysis
are reported in Table 3. All the buildings in the historic center have
been excluded in the evaluation of the potentially utilizable surfaces
for the installation of solar systems, because the installation of active
solar systems has been considered not appropriate due to esthetic,
cultural and prescribing reasons.
For example, the calculation for the actually utilizable surface
for ‘‘Colli’’ district is as follows:
The first step is to select the maximum yearly value of the
shadowing factor obtained in the simulations, that is 76%
(on December at 16:00) and then the actually utilizable surface
can be calculated by
Spot ¼ ½ðSp fT1 Þ þ ðSf fT2 Þð1fsh Þ ¼ ½ð71%  1:495:414  0:5Þ
þ ð29%  1:495:414  0:28Þ  ð10:76Þ ¼ 156:552 m2 ð5Þ
The analysis carried out on the whole town allowed to determine
an actually utilizable surface for the installation of solar system
equal to nearly 2  106 m2.
The values obtained by means of this procedure have to be
intended as rough estimates and lead to theoretic conclusions;
therefore based on modeling they are able to resume the average
characteristics rather than the actual buildings.
Once known the actually utilizable surfaces for the installation
of active solar systems, the built surface and the resident
population in each district, the value of the priority index can
be easily calculated by means of the priority index of Eq. (4). In
Table 4, the obtained results are reported.
This will allow local administrations to draw up a scale of
priorities of the districts for financing the interventions.
Referring to Directive 2009/28/EC, commonly identified by the
slogan 20–20–20 (EP, 2009), the goal for Italy is 17% share of
energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of
energy. Starting from the Italian gross energy consumption per
 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343 5341

Fig. 5. Hourly trends of the percentage of surfaces receiving unshaded direct solar irradiation in the ‘‘Colli’’ and ‘‘Mare Dolce’’ districts.

Table 3 6. Sustainable government expenditure for a solar energy

Theoretic potential of utilizable surface for the installation of solar systems. policy
Districts Built Ideal net surface % Sunny Spot (m2)
Surface ðSf ft1 þ Sp ft2 Þ (m2) hours (1  fsh) In order to fulfill the Kyoto Protocol, the EU delivered the
(m2) Directive 2003/87/CE (EP, 2003a) that institutes an European
market for the emissions and imposes to the other Member States
Colli 1,495,414 652,300 24 156,552 the preparation of a national plan that assigns the emission
Centro Storico 1,067,759 – 0 –
licenses to single plants of some productive sectors.
Liberta -Monte 2,533,725 1,105,211 50 552,605
Pellegrino In the above mentioned Directive, economic sanctions for each
Monte Cuccio 1,838,838 802,101 38 304,798 ton of CO2eq emitted in excess by the Member States has been
Maredolce 1,073,281 468,165 26 121,723 settled; such sanctions amount to 100 h/ton. In order to fulfill the
Monte Gallo 2,116,758 923,330 22 203,133
goals of Directive 2009/28/EC and not to pay for the deriving
Messina 1,546,648 674,648 33 222,634
Marinae economic sanctions, Italian Government has incentivated the
Oreto 1,862,926 812,608 44 357,548 diffusion of solar systems by means of economic incentives. In
13,535,349 5,438,363 1,918993
particular, for thermal solar systems installation people get back
55% of the initial investment cost spread in 5 years (Italian
Parliament, 2007), while for PV ones an incentive, equal to
capita, equal to 3.042 toe/pc, and the final energy consumption 0.391 h per produced kWh, for 20 years (Italian Government,
per capita, equal to 2.150 toe/pc (Eurostat, 2010), considering that 2010) is established (the so called ‘‘Conto Energia’’ incentives).
1 m2 of PV system produces 184.2 kWh/year  m2 on average Actually, a new ‘‘Conto Energia’’ is going to be delivered by the
under the climatic conditions of Palermo (JRC, 2011) and assum- Italian Government where the proposed incentives are quite
ing the conversion factor between toe and MWhe equal to lower than those indicated in the decree presented in force.
0.148 toe/MWhe (Autorita dell’Energia e del Gas, 2008), the share From such data, considering that the CO2 emissions per capita
of energy consumptions, relative to the population of Palermo, are equal to 9.08 ton CO2eq/pc (Eurostat, 2010), the involved
covered by the PV systems installable here is equal to 2.5% of government expenditure in 20 years for promoting solar systems
gross and 3.6% of final energy consumptions. Moreover, consider- is equal to nearly 3.3 and 1.1 billion h, respectively, for PV and
ing that the Italian household energy consumptions are equal to solar thermal systems (referring to replacement of electric storage
0.459 toe/pc (Eurostat, 2010), nearly 13% of the household con- water heaters), compared to 1.6 billion h to pay if no renewable
sumptions could be covered by PV systems. energy systems were installed. The different proposed scenarios
5342 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343

Table 4
Parameters involved in the choice of the priority of intervention.

Districts Population Built surface (m2) Population density Spot (m2) PI Rank
(inhabitants/m2)

Colli 79,196 1,495,414 0.053 156,552 0.01081 6

Centro Storico 21,987 1,067,759 0.021 – 0.00000 –
Lib.-M. Pellegrino 128,950 2,533,725 0.051 552,605 0.03672 1
Monte Cuccio 119,220 1,838,838 0.065 304,798 0.02580 3
Maredolce 75,566 1,073,281 0.070 121,723 0.01119 5
Monte Gallo 71,641 2,116,758 0.034 203,133 0.00898 7
Messina Marinae 73,807 1,546,648 0.048 222,634 0.01387 4
Oreto 107,800 1,862,926 0.058 357,548 0.02701 2

678,167 13,535,349 0.050 1,918,993

Fig. 6. Palermo government expenditure in 20 years for different scenarios.

are reported in Fig. 6 for the town of Palermo and for the Table 5
maximum achievable roof surface. Comparison of the analyzed scenarios.
From these reported data, it can be pointed out as the penalty
No action Solar thermal PV
settled by the Protocol is definitely too cheap to really consider it
as an incentivizing factor toward the adoption of PV systems; Produced energy (toe) – 65,308 52,314
therefore, actually, higher penalties should be fixed to justify the Penalties (billions h) 1.6 0.63 0.51
investment on PV systems, or, by another point of view, PV Incentives (billions h) – 0.44 2.76
Total expenditure (billions h) 1.6 1.1 3.3
systems are too incentivated compared to the market cost of CO2.
By doing a simple mathematic assessment, it could be observed
that the value of the incentive balancing the actual cost of the ton of
CO2eq is about 0.155 h/kWh of produced electricity. By the way, it is
relevant to note that this value almost equals to one of the costs of creating employment and richness, that are difficultly assessable in
the kWh in the present Italian market. a cost–benefit analysis.
On the other hand, the cost of the ton of CO2 balancing the This is the actual challenge for the energy policy makers that
present incentive for RES electricity in Italy should rise up to are called to adopt environmentally effective interventions even
roughly 250 h/ton, that obviously puts the penalties at a level when they do not appear to be economically feasible.
unsustainable by the present market. PV systems are nowadays much more expensive than solar
A mere comparison of these actions would lead to prefer an thermal systems and taking into account that in the considered
incentivation of the PV systems (despite the related high cost of geographic context more than 50% of the DHW production
penalties) due to the financial return induced by this government systems consists of electric boiler, characterized by very low
support (Branker and Pearce, 2010). But, as a matter of fact, RES energy efficiency, the installation of solar thermal systems rather
incentives and penalties for not sustainable technologies are not than PV systems could be the preferential choice.
comparable on a simple economic basis since they also involve Table 5 summarizes the main results of this analysis in terms
social costs that cannot be easily evaluated (Papadopoulos and of produced energy and related penalties to be paid by Public
Karteris, 2009). In fact, it has to be considered that both types of Administrations. This scheme could represent a guide-line for
interventions obviously induce also a flourishing economic activity, assessing the effectiveness of energy policies at urban level.
 M. La Gennusa et al. / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 5335–5343
7. Conclusions
The aim of the present work is to provide a contribution to the
problem of the evaluation of the potential surface of building to
be utilized for solar energy collectors at urban level, particularly
in towns characterized by a complex building layout. The topic
has been faced by utilizing the GIS techniques, that allow to
represent the territory as dynamic files taking information about
elevations and expositions of buildings that constitute a whole
urban layout or a single district.
Starting from this digital description of the territory, the
surfaces of building coverings devoted to house solar thermal or
PV collectors can be easily estimated, allowing to draw up
‘‘solarization’’ maps, which are particularly useful for local
administrations that desire to undertake energy plans involving
renewable sources.
The simple method here introduced has been applied to the
town of Palermo, where it has demonstrated practicability and
effectiveness in selecting the possible interventions in a priority
order, in relation to both the more promising urban areas and the
return of the action.
The paper approached the possible utilization of solar systems
in urban context by a local administration point of view. After the
introduction of a simple method (based on GIS procedures) for
singling out the potential roof surface of the urban building stock,
candidate to the installation of solar systems, the economic
feasibility of the interventions has been also argued by means
of an application to the Italian town of Palermo, developed within
the frame of the regional energy plan (PER) of the Sicilian Region
(Sicilian Region, 2009).
Moreover, although necessary in order to reduce the impact of
human activities against the environment, renewable energy
sources still account for a consistent economic lag in comparison
with fossil fuels, at least referring to the penalty due to emission
of CO2 by fossil fuels.
In other words, local administrations could sometimes find
more useful to pay for the due penalty of the ton of CO2 rather
than financing systems fed with renewable sources.
However, it has to be remarked that in the analysis developed
in this work, only the actual cost paid by administrations for
incentivizing solar systems installation has been taken into
account; all these types of interventions obviously induce also a
flourishing economic activity, creating employment and richness,
that are difficultly assessable in a cost–benefit analysis, letting the
politicians the task of choosing the best option for our society.
Acknowledgements
This paper has been prepared within the studies concerning
the definition of the Regional Energy Plan of Sicily, of which the
University of Palermo (Department of Energy and Environmental
Researches—D.R.E.AM.) was the main contractor.
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