FTI 2021 Tech Trends Volume All

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Table of Contents
00 Overview, Methodology and Frameworks 03
01 Artificial Intelligence 40
02 Scoring and Recognition 93
03 New Realities, Synthetic Media, News and Information 117
04 Work, Culture and Play 164
05 Health, Medical and Wearables 196
06 Home Automation and Consumer Electronics 237
07 Policy and Government 260
08 Privacy and Security 300
09 Blockchain, Fintech and Crypto 335
10 5G, Robots and Transportation 358
11 Energy, Climate and Space 434
12 Synthetic Biology, Biotech and Agriculture 477
© 2021 Future Today Institute

Volume 0 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Overview
Report Methodology
Strategic trends that will influence business, Frameworks
government, education, media and society
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Overview, Methodology and Frameworks
05 Overview
06 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends
08 Methodology
09 Macro Forces
14 Trend vs. Trendy
15 Fringe Sketching
16 Recognizing Patterns
17 Escalation Triggers
18 Time Cone
19 How to Do Strategic
Planning Like a Futurist
20 Scenarios
21 Axes of Uncertainty
22 S-SWOT Analysis
23 Future States
24 Assumptions vs. Knowledge
25 Scoping and Refining
26 Foresight
29 Authors
34 Why FTI
35 About FTI
36 Disclaimer
37 Creative Commons License
38 Appendix
Overview
The 1920s began in chaos. Cata- It’s difficult not to see striking ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed
clysmic disruption resulting from parallels to our modern world. A nearly 500 technology and science
the first world war and the Spanish tumultuous U.S. election, extreme trends across multiple industry
flu shuttered businesses and pro- weather events and Covid-19 sectors. In each volume, we discuss
voked xenophobia. Technological continue to test our resolve and the disruptive forces, opportunities
marvels like the radio, refrigerator, our resilience. Exponential tech- and strategies that will drive your
vacuum cleaner, moving assembly nologies—artificial intelligence, organization in the near future.
line and electronic power trans- synthetic biology, exascale com-
Now, more than ever, your organi-
mission generated new growth, puting, autonomous robots, and
zation should examine the poten-
even as the wealth gap widened. off-planet missions to space—are
tial near and long-term impact of
More than two-thirds of Ameri- challenging our assumptions about
tech trends. You must factor the
cans survived on wages too low to human potential. Under lockdown,
trends in this report into your stra-
sustain everyday living. The pace we’ve learned how to work from
tegic thinking for the coming year,
of scientific innovation—the dis- our kitchen tables, lead from our
and adjust your planning, opera-
covery of insulin, the first modern spare rooms, and support each
tions and business models accord-
antibiotics, and insights into theo- other from afar. But this disruption
ingly. But we hope you will make
retical physics and the structure of has only just begun.
time for creative exploration. From
atoms—forced people to reconsid-
With the benefit of both hindsight chaos, a new world will come.
er their cherished beliefs.
and strategic foresight, we can
The sheer scale of change, and the choose a path of reinvention. Our
great uncertainty that came with 2021 Tech Trends Report is de-
it, produced two factions: those signed to help you confront deep
who wanted to reverse time and uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For Amy Webb
return the world to normal, and this year’s edition, the magnitude
Founder
those who embraced the chaos, of new signals required us to cre-
The Future Today Institute
faced forward, and got busy build- ate 12 separate volumes, and each
ing the future. report focuses on a cluster of relat-
05 © 2021 Future Today Institute

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
6
Macro Forces and

Emerging Trends 2 3 4 5
For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re-
searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result.
Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our
futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities
for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business.
We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries,
including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find
a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.
Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.
Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for
key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.
Each trend offers six important insights.
1. Years on the List 2. Key Insight 4. Disruptive Impact 6. Action Scale Informs Strategy
We track longitudinal tech and Concise description of this trend The implications of this trend on FTI’s analysis of what action your Strong evidence and data. Longer-
science trends. This measurement that can be easily understood and your business, government, or organization should take. Fields term uncertainties remain. Use it to
indicates how long we have repeated to others. society. include: inform your strategic planning.
followed the trend and its
progression. 3. Examples 5. Emerging Players Watch Closely Act Now
Real-world use cases, some of Individuals, research teams, Mounting evidence and data, but Ample evidence and data. This
which should be familiar to you. startups, and other organizations more maturity is needed. Use it to trend is already mature and
emerging in this space. inform your vision, planning, and requires action.
research.
Macro Forces and

Emerging Trends
Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes

You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and
converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal-
lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact,
high-uncertainty situations using signals available today. 1
1. Headline 2
A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes.
2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3

A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is
optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic.
3. Narrative
The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments
leading us to this point in our future history.
Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali-
tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical
sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re-
search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter-
views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula-
tive fiction.

Methodology
01
The Future Today Institute’s Seven-Step 1. Converge: Determine your questions, time horizons
and stakeholders.
Forecasting Funnel Framing
2. Diverge: Listen for weak signals at the fringe. Make
The Future Today Institute’s strategic forecasting 02
observations and harness information from the
model uses quantitative and qualitative data to broadest possible array of sources and on a wide
Discovering
identify weak signals and map their trajectories variety of topics.
into tech trends. Our seven steps alternate be- 03 3. Converge: Uncover hidden patterns in the previous
tween broad and narrow scopes, which include:
step. Use FTI’s CIPHER framework to identify trends.
framing your work, identifying weak signals at Analyzing Look for contradictions, inflections, practices,
the fringe, spotting patterns, developing trend hacks, extremes and rarities.
04
candidates, calculating a trend’s velocity, devel-
4. Diverge: Ask questions to learn how the trends
oping scenarios, and finally, backcasting pre- Clarifying you’ve identified intersect with your industry and all
ferred outcomes. of its parts.
05
The steps of our methodology can be used inde- 5. Converge: Calculate the velocity and trajectory of
pendently to surface new trends or to generate Calculating change that are both internal and external to your
scenarios, or they can be used to guide your organization.
06
strategic planning process. To identify trends, use
6. Diverge: Write scenarios to describe impacts and
steps 1 – 4. To imagine future worlds, use steps 1 Planning outcomes in the future.
and 5.
07 7. Converge: Backcast preferred outcomes. Define
your desired future and then work backwards to
Action identify the strategic actions connecting that future
to your present.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
The 11 Sources
Macro Forces
Shape our world
Signals
Indicate emerging change
Trends
Describe our futures

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
The 11 Sources
Macro Forces
Shape our world
These 11 Macro Forces represent external uncertainties that

no one entity has control over but that play a critical role in
how our futures develop. These factors broadly influence
business, governing, and society. They can skew positive,
neutral, and negative. These are primary source shifts.
Developments in each of these 11 Macro Forces impact the
world we live in.
FTI Senior Foresight Associate Marc Palatucci refers to this

framework as our “Wheel of Disruption.” This framework
illustrates how disruption tends to stem from 10 major
influential sources of macro change, with technology, the
11th source, underpinning all others. When we are analyzing
the future of anything, we think about each area of potential
disruption.
We also consider each of the macro sources to ensure that

our framing includes areas beyond one industry and its direct
adjacencies. The result is a diverse set of clear drivers we use
to guide our research and analysis.

The 11 Sources
Macro Forces Wealth Distribution:

The distribution of income across
Geopolitics:
The relationships among the leaders,
Media and Telecommunications:
All of the ways we send and receive
Shape our world a population’s households, the militaries, and governments of different information and learn about the world.
concentration of assets in various countries, and the risk faced by investors, These include social networks, news
communities, the ability for individuals companies, and elected leaders in organizations, digital platforms, video
to move up from their existing financial response to regulatory, economic, or streaming services, gaming and eSports
circumstances, and the gap between military actions. systems, 5G, and the boundless other
the top and bottom brackets within an methods for connecting with each other.
economy. Economy:
Shifts in standard macroeconomic and Technology:
Education: microeconomic factors. We recognize technology not as an
Access and quality of primary, isolated source of macro change but
secondary, and post-secondary Public Health: rather as the connective tissue linking
education; workforce training; trade Changes in the health and behavior of business, government, and society.
apprenticeships; certification programs; a community’s population in response For that reason, we always look for
the ways in which people are learning to lifestyles, popular culture, disease, emerging tech developments, as well as
and the tools they’re using; and what government regulation, warfare or tech signals within the other sources of
people are interested in studying. conflict, and religious beliefs. change.
Infrastructure: Demographics:
Physical, organizational, and digital Observing how birth and death rates,
structures needed for society to operate income, population density, human
(bridges, power grids, roads, Wi-Fi towers, migration, disease, and other dynamics
closed-circuit security cameras) and the are shifting communities.
ways an infrastructure of a city, state, or
Environment:
country might impact another’s.
Changes to the natural world or to
Government: specific geographic areas, including
Local, state, national, and international extreme weather events, climate
governing bodies; their planning cycles; fluctuations, rising sea levels, drought,
their elections; and their regulatory high or low temperatures, and more. (We
decisions. include agricultural production in this
category.)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
The 11 Sources
Signals
Indicate emerging change
Weak Signals are...

• A small innovation, incremental development, or R&D
advancement, or other minor development that has the potential
to grow as it matures
• A new technology development that has not yet entered the

mainstream, or a new market strategy, product, or service
entering a noncompetitive space
• Evidence of an existing thing becoming obsolete, or evidence of

a novel thing emerging
• A recently revealed problem or state of affairs that does not

directly or immediately impact your business
Strong Signals are...

• A bigger innovation, significant development or R&D
advancement, or other big development that is maturing
• A new market technology, strategy, product, or service entering a

competitive space, where others are likely to follow fast
• Factors that challenge current beliefs or assumptions and have

the momentum to mature or grow fast
• Obvious advance warning indicators

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
The 11 Sources
Trends
Describe our futures
Trends emerge from the intersection of macro forces and

signals. They are new manifestations representing the
collisions of new developments, and they form steadily over
many years. Importantly, they do not necessarily follow a
linear path from the fringe to the mainstream.
The Four Laws of Tech Trends
1. Trends are driven by primary forces of change and our

basic human needs.
2. Trends are timely, but they persist in the wake of new

developments.
3. Trends are the convergence of weak and strong signals

over time.
4. Trends evolve as they emerge.
The Four Laws of Tech Trends were first introduced in The Signals Are
Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream by Amy Webb.

Trend vs. Trendy: Knowing the Difference

Sometimes it can be a challenge to distinguish between something that is trendy (i.e., a
fad that comes and goes) and a genuine “longitudinal” trend that will have significant
lasting impact on the world, and on your business. We can validate the latter type of trend
by confirming it meets most or all of the Four Laws of Tech Trends.
Trendy phenomena (or fads) are much more transient. They appear suddenly, capture
our attention, and distract us with intense possibilities—only to burn out just as quickly
as they arrived. Fads move along a common cycle—insider discovery, trending on social
networks, influencer bragging, media hysteria and mainstream acceptance—until we are
disillusioned because the fads never meet our broader expectations.
The output is a verified trend or set of trends that can then be accounted for in the stra-
tegic plans of your organization. The Four Laws can help you avoid spending time and
resources adapting to what may appear to be a strong signal, only for it to prove inconse-
quential in the near future.

Fringe Sketching
The Fringe Sketch is FTI’s first step in looking for emerging signals and trends. It is a net-
work map connecting signals to macro forces. We build the sketch using a digital white-
board, and add data sources, images, videos, and other relevant bits of information as
we go.
We begin by adding a wide array of relevant idea “nodes” to the sketch—these can
include concisely described current events, emerging tech trends, societal phenomena,
even additional questions—and drawing lines between each node and those to which it
is most closely related. This process takes the form of an active brainstorm, with thoughts
flowing freely and most, if not all of them, making it into the sketch. We keep at it until we
have an explosive amount of ideas on the board, each forming a node and spawning its
own sub-nodes in a many-layered web of information.
The result is a map of direct and orthogonal relationships between diverse technolog-
ical and cultural phenomena, all with the central topic as their nucleus. This collection
of structured data can then be analyzed to reveal unexpected interactions and surface
overarching trends that are likely to play a role in the future.

Recognizing Patterns
CIPHER provides a tool to categorize
the signals we surface during our Fringe
Sketch, but we also use it for our regres-
sion models.
Six key factors indicate trends, and they

are represented by the CIPHER acronym.
Contradictions, inflections, and practices

are the most common. Hacks and ex-
tremes tend to be outliers or strong trends
when they appear. Rarities are exactly
what they sound like: rare and unusual, so
when we see them we tend to pay close
attention to their influence.

Escalation Triggers
Signals and trends aren’t useful within Action Criteria
an organization unless strategic action • Inflection point is imminent
of some kind is taken. Teams sometimes
• Immediate opportunity for competitor
have a difficult time aligning on which
trends to share with executives—and • Impacts our partners
when. • Great internal momentum/support in
our organization
We customize this Escalation Triggers
matrix for our FTI clients to help them Decision Criteria
determine when they should take ac- • High importance and/ or high impact
tion, when a strategic decision is need-
• Could cause disruption to our model
ed, and when to continue monitoring
a signal or trend (or constellation of • Financial, operational or market risk
signals and trends). With each new sig-
• Meaningful impact on brand positioning
nal discovered, they use this matrix to
determine the category. If the answer • Tied to an existing strategic initiative
in a category is predominantly yes, they • Pending regulation
know when to escalate the signal to
• Strong interest from within our organization
other departments, executive teams, or
boards of directors.
Monitoring Criteria
• Potential for financial, operational or
market disruption
• Some importance and/or impact, but more

time is needed
• Interest from within our organization

Time Cone
s
Les

The Future Today Institute’s Time Cone shows inty
how the range of possible paths forward ex- Certa
and
dence
pands as we look further into the future and the vi
a, E
availability of current, reliable, and actionable Dat

data decreases. Timelines are useful for tracking
the progress of a project toward a finite goal, but

for an organization faced with a broad range of e
Mor
potential futures, you need to factor in uncertain- STRATEGIC SYSTEMS-LEVEL DISRUPTION
TACTICAL VISION
ty. The time span of the cone (Tactics, Strategic PLANNING AND EVOLUTION
Planning, Vision, and Systems-Level Evolution)
are modulated to suit different foresight projects,
and foreseeable waypoints can be plotted di-
rectly on the framework. We also map trends on
the Time Cone to gain deeper insights into how
they could impact organizations.
12 - 24 months 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years 10+ years
Example time ranges

How to Do Strategic Planning Like a Futurist
Think
For any given uncertainty about the Tactical decisions must fit into
future—whether that’s risk, opportunity, an organization’s strategy. At this
or growth—it’s best to think in the short point in the cone, we are a little
and long term simultaneously. As we less certain of outcomes, because
exponentially.
think about the future, we build a cone we’re looking at the next 24 months
with four distinct categories: (1) tactics, to five years. This area should be
(2) strategic planning, (3) vision, and (4) most familiar to strategy officers
systems-level evolution. and their teams: We’re describing
traditional strategy and the direc-
We start by defining the cone’s edge
tion the organization will take. Our
Act
using highly probable events for which
actions include defining priorities,
there is already data or evidence. The
setting resource allocation, making
amount of time varies for every proj-
any personnel changes needed,
ect, organization, and industry. In the
and the like.
incrementally.
Time Cone graphic in this book, we’ve
used 12–24 months as a place to start. Lots of teams get stuck cycling
Because we can identify trends and between strategy and tactics, and
probable events (both within a com- that makes their organizations vul-
pany and external to it), the kind of nerable to disruption. If you aren’t
planning that can be done is tactical in simultaneously articulating your vi-
nature, and the corresponding actions sion and a systems-level evolution,
could include things like redesigning another organization will drag you
products or identifying and targeting a into its version of the future.
new customer segment.

Scenarios
Scenarios are narrative snapshots de-
scribing possible futures. Scenarios are
strategic tools designed to catalyze
what-if conversations. They require
teams to confront their cherished beliefs,
develop shared visions, and sharpen
their focus, and refine their expectations.
Scenarios do not predict the future. They
reduce uncertainty so that better deci-
sions can be made in the present. Done
well, scenarios inform what actions must
be taken to shape the future.
The Future Today Institute’s scenario

modeling process relies on many rounds
of research, analysis, and writing.

Axes of Uncertainty
We tend to underpredict or overpredict change. The reason: Imagining plausible outcomes
forces us to confront our expectations and cherished beliefs.
We use a 2x2 matrix to rapidly prototype scenarios. They are short but detailed narratives
describing plausible outcomes of high-impact, high-uncertainty events.
We begin with a prioritized list of signals and trends. Then we generate an additional list of
uncertainties using STEEPLE factors: Social/Demographic, Technological, Economic, Envi-
ronmental, Political, Legal, and Ethical. We add in additional uncertainties that intrigue us
and relate to our current project.
We write uncertainties along opposite axes to explore what scenario might emerge. Quad-
rants reflect the signals, trends, STEEPLE factors, and other curiosities we’re exploring. In
each quadrant, we answer “What if these two factors are present?” and continue probing
until we have a short but deep story. We finish with a headline describing that future state.
As a last step, we label each quadrant using one of six categories: near-term opportunity,
long-term opportunity, near-term risk, long-term risk, neutral, and existential risk to help us
prioritize the quadrant for the next phase of our scenarios work.

S-SWOT Analysis
We adapted the traditional SWOT analysis as a way to frame scenarios for organizations
new to foresight. (Hence, Scenarios-SWOT.) Because this framework is already known to
most organizations, it reduces some of the frustration that can sometimes be associated
with data-rich scenarios.
SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats, each of which occu-
pies a quadrant, and the quadrants are further classified as internal versus external to the
organization, and as favorable or adverse.
In the context of foresight, we use this tool with teams new to scenario writing. It helps
them prepare to write scenarios with optimistic and catastrophic framings. A completed
SWOT matrix helps teams develop the components to include in narratives. The optimis-
tic scenario will describe a future in which teams capitalize on their strengths and seize
the opportunities identified, while a catastrophic scenario will describe a future in which
the weaknesses they identified are exploited or prevent them from succeeding, and the
threats they surfaced are actualized.

Future States
As we develop scenarios, we first deter-
mine the time horizon, the types of data
we’ll use to support the narrative, and
the strategic purpose they will serve.

Assumptions vs. Knowledge

This is a tool we use to check our in- 1. Pure Gut
stinctive biases—a scale we call AvK, • No evidence affirming or negating
short for Assumptions vs. Knowledge. • Hopeful thinking
It can be used any time an assertion is • Intuition
made to determine whether it’s based
2. Familiarity
on fact or feeling. On one end of the
• Some evidence
spectrum are Assumptions (1), pure
• Some insights
hunches that are not supported by any • Lots of remaining questions
substantial data, and on the other is
Knowledge (4), declarations made with 3. Evidence
ample evidence from multiple sources • Mounting evidence
to back them up. With two intermedi- • Models are built
ate steps—limited evidence or insight • A few remaining questions
but still significant uncertainty (2), and 4. Knowledge
meaningful corroborating data or mod- • Extensive evidence
els but still some doubt (3)—the scale • Established models
is a great way to keep sentimental bias • Questions answered
from clouding our strategy.

Scoping and Refining

We ask clients whether they need NEED ACTIONS NEED INSIGHTS
actions or insights. We also assess their
MORE
tolerance for risk and uncertainty. This
strategic assessment is used to scope
our work with clients at the beginning Tactical Actions Inform Strategy
of projects and to refine the questions
Find incremental actions that can Determine how these trends support
organizations are seeking to answer.
be taken and measured under or challenge the organization’s usual
current conditions. strategic direction. Data, evidence,
CERTAINTY ABOUT TRENDS

and models will help the ideas land
internally.
Big Bets Explore Ideas
Architect “big bets” that could help Explore the recently plausible using
the organization achieve its goals an array of adjacent sources of
in the future. Reverse-engineer ideas and inspiration. Look for new
those big bets to the present for opportunity spaces to unlock, or
incremental actions. emerging threats that haven’t yet
been considered.
LESS

Foresight
What is
Strategic foresight reduces uncertainty about the future.
It’s about preparation, not predictions.
Strategic
Foresight is a strategic activity that uses quantitative and
qualitative data, frameworks and tools to build plausible
visions of the future so that management can make in-
Foresight?
formed decisions today.
Accounting data, competitor intelligence, market share, the success or failure of
past initiatives, campaigns or products, and consumer research covering near-
term supply needs can be accurate in the present, however they are often unre-
liable predictors of the future. Likewise, presumptions that the future will merely
be a continuation of the present does not accommodate the chaos, uncertainty
and disequilibrium that develop during periods of rapid change.

Foresight
Foresight 33% Higher Profitability

Companies with a dedicated strategic foresight
Creates Value
methodology and resources outperformed the
average by a 33% higher profitability.
200% Growth
Companies with a dedicated strategic foresight
methodology and resources outgrew their
competitors 200%.
25% Improvement
Companies say that strategic foresight improves
business objectives and planning, helps define
new markets, and builds flexible mindsets among
executives, even in times of deep uncertainty

Foresight
Foresight
Compliments
Existing Work
Streams
Existing Work Streams Foresight Work Streams

Authors
Amy Webb Marc Palatucci

Founder and CEO Senior Foresight Associate
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
awebb@futuretodayinstitute.com mpalatucci@futuretodayinstitute.com
Amy Webb pioneered FTI’s data-driven foresight University’s Säid School of Business, was elected a Marc Palatucci is a Senior Foresight Associate at the School of Individualized Study. Palatucci serves as
methodology that is used within hundreds of organi- life member to the Council on Foreign Relations and Future Today Institute, with research specializations editor-at-large for an arts, fashion and culture mag-
zations globally. Her focus is to transform organiza- is a member of the Bretton Woods Committee. She in new realities (AR/ VR/ MR/ DR), digital fashion, azine and collaborates with writers, designers and
tions as they prepare for complex futures. She advises is a member of the World Economic Forum where future of work and learning, retail and e-commerce. producers on films, TV shows and commercials about
CEOs of the world’s most-admired companies, three- she serves on the Global Future Council on Media, He co-leads the MBA course in strategic foresight at science, technology and the future.
star admirals and generals, and the senior leadership Entertainment and Culture and the Stewardship the New York University Stern School of Business.
of central banks and intergovernmental organiza- Board of the Forum’s Platform for Shaping the Fu- Palatucci serves on the World Health Organization’s
tions. She leads FTI’s technology research initiatives ture of Media, Entertainment and Culture. Webb is Learning Strategy Advisory Group and is a Senior
on AI, synthetic biology and genetic engineering, the bestselling author of several books about strategic Deputy to the World Economic Forum’s Platform for
next-generation networks, and quantum technol- foresight and emerging technologies. A lifelong sci- Shaping the Future of Media, Entertainment and Cul-
ogies. Webb is a professor of strategic foresight at ence fiction fan, she collaborates closely with writers ture. He holds an MBA in Emerging Technology from
the New York University Stern School of Business, and producers on films, TV shows and commercials New York University’s Stern School of Business and a
where she developed and teaches the MBA course on about science, technology and the future. BA in Linguistics and Languages from NYU’s Gallatin
strategic foresight. She is a Visiting Fellow at Oxford

Authors
Elena Giralt Sam Guzik Kristofer “Kriffy” Perez Ryan Hogan

Foresight Affiliate Foresight Affiliate Foresight Affiliate Foresight Associate
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
kperez@futuretodayinstitute.com rhogan@futuretodayinstitute.com
Elena Giralt is a Foresight Affiliate at the Future To- Sam Guzik is a Foresight Affiliate specializing in Kristofer “Kriffy” Perez applies years of fintech prod- Ryan Hogan has advised large-scale internet plat-
day Institute, where she leads research in blockchain, technology, media, digital products, subscription uct design and development to guide new companies forms, leading-edge programs in decentralization
cryptocurrencies, decentralized media and technol- products, and newsroom tools. His career includes a strategically. As a Foresight Affiliate at the Future and space organizations on their futures. He holds an
ogy. She holds an MBA from New York University’s broad range of experience that includes product man- Today Institute, Kriffy specializes in fintech, banking, MBA in Strategic Foresight from California College
Stern School of Business and a BA/BS in Political agement, strategic foresight, scenario forecasting, financial services, transportation, product innova- of the Arts and a BA in Art and Philosophy from
Science, French and Middle Eastern Studies from audience engagement and leadership in legacy news tion, and long-term strategy. Previously as a Director Freed-Hardeman University.
Santa Clara University. organizations. Passionate about building a sustain- of North American Product Innovation and Design at
able future for local news, Guzik has demonstrated Visa, he led product and design teams to deliver new
results creating innovative, engaging and impactful product solutions and best-in-class customer-centric
journalism — and thinking about the business model experiences to market-leading financial institutions.
to support that work. Guzik is a graduate of Wash- Kriffy has also worked for MasterCard Advisors, the
ington University in St. Louis, Columbia University Boston Consulting Group, IBM, and co-founded a
Graduate School of Journalism and the NYU Stern paytech startup. Kriffy has played an integral role in
School of Business. more than 120 strategic projects across 8 countries
and has filed 15+ patents. Kriffy is a Co-founder and
Managing Director at Global PayTech Ventures,
where he leads strategic advisory.
Authors
Jennifer Karppinen Leah Zaidi Brian Alapatt Cathy Hackl

Foresight Associate Senior Foresight Associate Public Policy and Trend Researcher Futurist
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
jkarppinen@futuretodayinstitute.com lzaidi@futuretodayinstitute.com
Cathy Hackl is a futurist with specializations in aug-
Jennifer Karppinen is a Foresight Associate at the Fu- Leah Zaidi is an award-winning futurist with special- Brian Alapatt spent the first part of his career working mented reality, virtual reality and spatial computing.
ture Today Institute, with specializations in strategy, izations in systems thinking, worldbuilding, science at the intersection of state and federal government. She was named to the 2021 Thinkers50 Radar list of
technology, systems thinking, and experience design. fiction prototyping and experiential futures. She is an Previously, Alapatt was the legislative director to state the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the
She advises clients in telecommunications, insurance, Associate Editor of the World Futures Review. She Sen. Thomas F. O’Mara (D-New York). He is an MBA future of how organizations are managed and led.
health care, energy and retail. Karppinen holds an holds an MDES in Strategic Foresight and Innova- candidate at the NYU Stern School of Business.
MBA from Emory University’s Goizueta Business tion from OCAD University and a BA from York
School and a BS in Mechanical Engineering from University.
North Carolina State University.

Authors
Jennifer Alsever Cheryl Cooney Emily Caufield Julia Durgee

Editorial Director Director of Operations Creative Director Artist and Futurist
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
jalsever@futuretodayinstitute.com ccooney@futuretodayinstitute.com ecaufield@futuretodayinstitute.com
Jennifer Alsever is the Future Today Institute’s For over a decade, Cheryl Cooney has served as Emily Caufield is an award-winning designer and Julia Durgee is a rare left and right-brained MBA
Editorial Director. She has been a journalist for more the Future Today Institute’s director of operations, illustrator. Serving as FTI’s creative for more than a with creative, strategic, analytical, and digital experi-
than two decades covering tech, biotech, startups and where she manages workflows, planning and logis- decade, Caufield applies design thinking to visually ence at world-class brands. She illustrated the por-
business for such publications as Fortune Magazine, tics. Cooney is a published poet, with works appear- communicate complex trends, scenarios and foresight traits that appear in this year’s trend report.
the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Wired ing in American and Australian anthologies. research. Caufield designed all aspects of this year’s
and Fast Company. A popular young adult fiction trend report. She is a graduate of Boston University’s
writer, Alsever has won multiple YA awards for her College of Fine Arts.
Trinity Forest Series.

Authors
Sarah Kaufman Mel Blake Tom Foster

Associate Director Business Development Editor
NYU Rudin Center for Transportation mblake@futuretodayinstitute.com
Sarah Johnson
Sarah Kaufman leads projects related to smart cities, Mel Blake handles commercial development and Editor
mobility, urban planning, policy, and improving client relations for FTI. He was formerly founder
transportation through technology. and managing director of Monitor Talent, a speaker
agency he founded at the Monitor Group, a global
consulting firm. He is a board member of The Yale
Center for Customer Insights. He holds an MBA
from the Yale School of Management and a BA in
Economics from Wesleyan University.

Why FTI
We answer your most challenging questions using data, We support executive leaders and their teams.
creative inquiry, and strategic foresight.
The Future Today Institute works closely with executive leadership and management
teams to transform their strategic thinking on the future. Advisory services include
• What are plausible deep (20+ years), long-range (10+ years), and near-term
signal mapping, trend identification, scenario development, risk modeling, visioning,
(2+ years) futures?
and strategic planning.
• What scenarios describe our futures?
• What’s happening outside my industry that I should know?
• What companies, startups, and partners make up our future value network?
• What new products, services, or businesses should we build?
• Which tech trends should we monitor? When should we act?
• How can we build an early warning system to see the next disruptive event?
• How do we reduce uncertainty about our futures?

About the Future Today Institute
Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute researches, mod- Contact Us

els, and prototypes future risk and opportunity. As the lead- The Future Today Institute
ing strategic foresight and futures management consultants 33 Irving Place
to executive leadership teams worldwide, FTI’s data-driven 10th Floor
New York, NY 10003
applied research reveals trends and calculates how they will
disrupt business, government, and society. hello@futuretodayinstitute.com
267-342-4300
Together with our clients and partners, FTI is helping leaders
www.futuretodayinstitute.com
achieve their preferred futures. Our pioneering, data-driven
forecasting methodology and tools empower leaders to make
better decisions about the future, today.

Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are the authors’ own and are not representative of the
greater organizations in which they have been employed. The names of companies,
services, and products mentioned in this report are not necessarily intended as en-
dorsements by the Future Today Institute or this report’s authors.
The Future Today Institute’s 2021 Tech Trends Report relies on data, analysis, and
modeling from a number of sources, which includes sources within public and private
companies, securities filings, patents, academic research, government agencies,
market research firms, conference presentations and papers, and news media stories.
Additionally, this report draws from the Future Today Institute’s previous EMT Trends
Reports, FTI Trend Reports, and newsletters. FTI’s reports are occasionally updated on
the FTI website.
FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are referenced
in this report. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the entities listed in this
presentation.
Any trademarks or service marks used in this report are the marks of their respective
owners, who do not endorse the statements in this report. All rights in marks are re-
served by their respective owners. We disclaim any and all warranties, expressed or
implied, with respect to this report.

Using and Sharing The Material In This Report

You are free to: Under the following terms: You are prohibited from:
Share Attribution Commercial Sharing

Copy and redistribute the material You must give appropriate credit Don’t copy and redistribute this
in any medium or format, including to the Future Today Institute, pro- material in any medium or for-
in your organizations and class- vide a link to this Creative Com- mat for commercial purposes,
We invite you to use, share, and build
rooms. mons license, and indicate if any including any personal/ corporate
upon the material in our 14th annual
changes were made. You may do marketing and client services.
Future Today Institute Tech Trends Re-
Adapt so in any reasonable manner, but
port. We are making it freely available
Remix, transform, and build upon not in any way that suggests that Representing This Work As
to the public. This work is licensed under
the material for your own research, the Future Today Institute endors- Your Own
a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-
work, and teaching. es you or your use. Do not represent any part of this
Commercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Interna-
tional License. material as your own without
NonCommercial giving credit to the Future Today
You may not, under any circum- Institute.
stance, use the material for com-
mercial purposes. Additional Restrictions
You may not apply legal terms
ShareAlike or technological measures that
If you remix, transform, or build legally restrict others from doing
upon the material, you must dis- anything this license permits.
tribute your contributions under
the same license as you see here.

Appendix
Value of Foresight: Sources
Rohrbeck, R. & Schwarz, J. O. (2013).

The Value Contribution of Strategic
Foresight: Insights From an Empirical
Study of Large European Companies.
Technological Forecasting and Social
Change. 80(8), 1593–1606. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004
Rohrbeck, R. & Kum, M. E. (2018). Cor-

porate foresight and its impact on firm
performance: A longitudinal analysis.
Technological Forecasting and So-
cial Change. 129, 105–116. https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013

Volume 1 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends
Report Artificial
Strategic trends that will influence business, Intelligence
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Artificial Intelligence
42 Summary 55 100-Year Software 68 Machine Image Completion 78 AI as Critical Infrastructure

44 Artificial Intelligence 56 Scenario: Rage Against the Machine 68 Predictive Models Using 79 Nation-based Guardrails
45 An Executive’s Guide to AI 58 Health, Medicine, and Science Single Images and Regulations
45 Machine Learning 58 AI Speeds Scientific Discovery 69 Model-free Approaches to RL 79 Regulating Deepfakes
45 Deep Learning 58 AI-First Drug Discovery 69 Real-time Machine Learning 79 Making AI Explain Itself
46 Weak and Strong AI 59 AI Improves Patient Outcomes 69 Automated Machine Learning 79 New Strategic Technical Alliances
(AutoML) 79 The New Mil-Tech
48 Enterprise 59 Deep Learning Applied to
Medical Imaging 69 Hybrid Human-Computer Vision Industrial Complex
48 The Rise of MLOps
59 NLP Algorithms Detect Virus 69 Neuro-Symbolic AI
48 Low-Code or No-Code
Machine Learning Mutations 69 General Reinforcement
59 Diagnostics Without Tests Learning Algorithms
48 Web-Scale Content Analysis
59 Protein Folding 70 Continuous Learning
48 Simulating Empathy and Emotion
59 Dream Communication 70 Proliferation of 80 Algorithmic Warfighting
49 Artificial Emotional Intelligence
Franken-Algorithms
49 Serverless Computing 60 Thought Detection
70 Proprietary, Homegrown 81 China’s AI Rules
50 Expert Insight: Emotion AI Will 61 Scenario: Deep Twins in the OR
AI Languages 84 Society
Power the Empathy Economy, 63 Consumer
72 Talent 84 Ethics Clash
but AI Still Needs to Work 63 Zero UIs
72 AI Brain Drain 84 Ambient Surveillance
53 AI in the Cloud 63 Consumer-grade AI Applications
72 AI Universities 84 Marketplace Consolidation
53 AI at the Edge 63 Ubiquitous Digital Assistants
73 Demand for AI Talent Growing 84 Fragmentation
53 Advanced AI Chipsets 64 Deepfakes for Fun
73 Corporate AI Labs 85 Expert Insight: AI reveals
53 Digital Twins 64 Personal Digital Twins
73 AI for Interviews our real-world biases
53 Spotting Fakes 66 Research
75 Creative 86 AI Still Has a Bias Problem
54 Natural Language Processing 66 Closed-Source Code
75 Assisted Creativity 86 Problematic Training Data
for ESGs
66 Framework Consolidation 86 AI to Catch Cheaters
54 Intelligent Optical Character 75 Generative Algorithms for
66 Cost of Training Models Content Production 86 Algorithms Targeting
Recognition
67 NLP Benchmarks 75 Generating Virtual Environments Vulnerable Populations
54 Robotic Process Automation
67 Machine Reading Comprehension from Short Videos 87 AI Intentionally Hiding Data
54 Massive Translation Systems
67 AI Summarizing Itself 76 Automated Versioning 87 Undocumented AI Accidents
55 Predicting Systems and
Site Failures 67 No Retraining Required 76 Automatic Voice Cloning 87 Digital Dividends
67 Graph Neural Networks and Dubbing 87 Prioritizing Trust
55 Liability Insurance for AI
67 Federated Learning 76 Automatic Ambient Noise Dubbing 88 Scenario: Bully Bots
55 Manipulating AI Systems for
Competitive Advantage 67 GP Models 78 Geopolitics and Defense 89 Application
55 Global Rush to Fund AI 67 GPT-3’s Influence 78 AI Nationalism 90 Key Questions
55 Algorithm Marketplaces 68 Vokenization 78 National AI Strategies 91 Sources
+ Natural language processing is + Natural language processing

an area experiencing high inter- algorithms— typically used for
est, investment, and growth. text, words, and sentences—are
being used to interpret genetic
+ No-code or low-code systems changes in viruses.
are unlocking new use cases for
Artificial
businesses. + COVID-19 accelerated the use of
AI in drug discovery last year. The
+ Amazon Web Services, Azure, first trial of an AI-discovered drug
and Google Cloud’s low-code is underway in Japan.
and no-code offerings will trickle
down to everyday people, al- + AI plays key roles in synthetic
lowing them to create their own biology, genetics, and medical
Intelligence
artificial intelligence applica- imaging; predicting the spread of
tions and deploy them as easily disease; and improving patient
as they could a website. health outcomes.
+ The race is on to capture AI + New artificial nervous systems

cloudshare—and to become the use AI and neural implants.
Summary
most trusted provider of AI on
remote servers. + The SuperGLUE benchmark,
which measures AI’s human
+ The AI community still operates language ability, will likely be
using a closed-source model. Re- surpassed by the end of 2021.
searchers’ reluctance to publish
their full code leads to less trans-
parency and reproducibility, and
makes accountability murky.
+ Gaussian processes, the gold + Technical alliances that help

standard for many real-world drive future R&D could also
modeling problems, are becom- challenge existing geopolitical
ing more accurate and easier alliances.
to train.
+ Future wars will be fought in
Artificial
+ AI researchers are leaving ac- code, using data and algorithms
ademia for corporations at an as powerful weapons.
alarming pace.
+ We continue to fail to see
+ Generative adversarial networks China’s growing AI proficiency
assist artists and musicians in as a military, economic, and
new forms of creative expression. diplomatic threat.
Intelligence
+ A new wave of AI nationalism is + New software could be viable for
rising as governments institute 100 years by using AI to adapt to
new restrictions on M&A and changes around it.
investment activity.
Summary
+ Several countries will launch
national AI strategies in 2021
and 2022.
+ New measures to regulate the

creation and distribution of
deepfakes will be introduced
throughout 2021 and 2022.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Artificial Intelligence Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
14TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Artificial Intelligence
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
AI is now used across most industries. The convergence of groundbreaking • Broad Institute
Artificial intelligence It solves business problems, detects research, business use cases, the explosive • Clarifai
represents the third era fraud, improves crop yields, manages growth of data, and improvements in • Clearview AI
supply chains, recommends products, computing power and storage are en-
of computing, generally • DeepMind
and even assists designers and writers in abling advances in AI. The global artificial
defined as the ability their work. AI can predict call volume in intelligence market is expected to grow at • Disperse
for a machine to per- customer service centers and recommend a compound annual growth rate of 42.2% • Graphcore
staffing levels; it also predicts the emo- from 2021 to 2027. • HiSilicon Technologies
form cognitive functions tional state and behavior of the person • Kasisto
as well as or better than calling to help companies anticipate desir-
• LabGenius
humans. Such functions able solutions. AI automates the process
• Mohamed bin Zayed University
for drug discovery, which ultimately led
include perception, to faster COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
of Artificial Intelligence
• Niantic
learning, reasoning, Because AI is so broad, we have identified
different themes within the discipline • Nvidia
problem-solving, con- that you should be following. You will • OpenAI
textual understanding, also find the technology intersecting with • OpenMined
making inferences and other trends throughout this report.
• Persado
predictions, and exer- • PolyAI
cising creativity. • Recursion
AI is a force multiplier for every industry. • SenseTime
• Scale AI
• Syntiant

An Executive’s Guide to AI
What You Need To Know Machine Learning teams know how to classify the input ing to learn about an environment (such themselves. For example, once a system
AI pioneer Arthur Samuel popularized data and what they are trying to predict as a complex financial portfolio), or when learns what an object looks like—say, an
In its most basic form, artificial intelli-
the idea of machine learning in 1959, but can get accurate results much more the researcher needs to find greater levels apple—it can recognize that object in all
gence is a system that makes autonomous
explaining how computers could learn quickly by relying on an algorithm rather of optimization. It has a tremendous other images, even if it has only a partial
decisions. AI is a branch of computer
without being explicitly programmed. than a human. Understanding what number of business use cases, ranging view.
science in which computers are pro-
This would mean developing an al- product features would most likely drive from real-time dynamic pricing models There are different types of deep learning
grammed to do things that normally
gorithm that could someday extract new purchases is an example of a busi- to high frequency trading algorithms to models. The most common types include
require human intelligence. This includes
patterns from datasets and use those ness use case for supervised learning. the systems that run self-driving cars. convolutional neural networks, recurrent
learning, reasoning, problem-solving,
understanding language, and perceiving patterns to predict and make real-time In unsupervised learning, data is pro- neural networks, transformer neural
a situation or environment. AI is an decisions automatically. It took many vided to an algorithm without specific Deep Learning networks, and generative adversarial
extremely large, broad field that uses years for reality to catch up with Samu- output parameters. For example, if a networks (GANs).
Deep learning is a relatively new branch
its own computer languages and relies el’s idea, but today machine learning is a researcher doesn’t know quite what to A convolutional neural network
of machine learning. Programmers use
on computer networks modeled on our primary driver of the growth in AI. do with a large dataset, an algorithm (CNN) is multilayered, with a convolu-
special deep learning algorithms along-
human brains. Machine learning uses data to make pre- could determine patterns, classify data, tional layer, a pooling layer, and a fully
side an enormous corpus of data—typ-
dictions and recommendations on how and make recommendations without a connected layer. Each one performs a
ically many terabytes of text, images,
to achieve stated goals. Types of machine human supervisor. Unsupervised learn- different task using the data. The output
videos, speech, and the like. Often, these
learning include supervised, unsuper- ing has been used during the pandemic to is classification. If a researcher has 10,000
systems are trained to learn on their
vised, and reinforcement. find patterns in how the virus is spread- images and needs to extract data—to rec-
own, and they can sort through a variety
ing throughout communities. ognize particular faces, for instance—the
In supervised learning, an algorithm of unstructured data, whether it’s making
uses training data to learn the relation- In reinforcement learning, an algo- sense of typed text in documents or audio CNN would run until information could
ship between established parameters— rithm learns to perform a task by repeat- clips or video. In practical terms, deep be inferred. In business, CNNs are used
inputs and outputs. Humans supervise, edly running calculations as it attempts to learning’s emergence means that more for recognition: anomalies in medical
tweaking and adjusting systems as they accomplish a stated goal. Reinforcement and more human processes will be auto- imaging, faulty products on a production
work. Supervised learning is used when learning is used when there isn’t enough mated, including the writing of software, line, blight on crops.
training data, when the researcher is try- which computers will soon start to do

An Executive’s Guide to AI
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in the past year, are generated using Weak and Strong AI AI. This is problematic for researchers inforcement learning, in which machines
are multilayered neural networks that GANs. In design, GANs are tremendous- There are two kinds of AI—weak (or covering AI developments and for man- learn not unlike we do—by trial and
move and store information between ly useful: They can produce thousands “narrow”) and strong (or “general”). Nar- agers who must make decisions about error. While we haven’t seen an anthro-
input, hidden, and output layers. They of designs and recommend the best ones row AI systems make decisions within AI. In fact, we have already started to pomorphic AI walk out of DeepMind’s
are good at modeling sequence data for based on desired parameters. They can very narrow parameters at the same level see real-world examples of functioning lab, we should consider these projects
predictions. In business, they are used generate and modulate voices, faces, as a human or better, and we use them all artificial general intelligence. In 2017, as part of a long transition between the
anytime the sequence of data matters, even gestures. Researchers from Nvidia, day long without even realizing it. The researchers at DeepMind, a lab owned narrow AI of today and the strong AI of
such as speech recognition and language Massachusetts General Hospital, BWH anti-lock brakes in your car, the spam by the same parent company as Google, tomorrow.
translation. RNNs are used in digital Center for Clinical Data Science, and filter and autocomplete functions in announced that AI had taught itself how
assistants, to create captions for images, the Mayo Clinic collaborated on a GAN your email, and the fraud detection that to play chess, shogi (a Japanese version of
and to generate narrative reports using that generates synthetic MRIs showing authenticates you for a credit card pur- chess), and Go (an abstract strategy board
structured data (sports, financial). cancerous tumors. chase—these are all examples of artificial game)—all without any human inter-
GANs are unsupervised deep learning A transformer is a type of neural net- narrow intelligence. vention. The system, named AlphaZero,
systems composed of two competing work architecture that learns what words quickly became the strongest player in
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) de- history for each game. The team has
neural networks—a generator and a mean when they appear in a particular scribes systems capable of decision-mak-
discriminator—that are trained on the context. Using “attention mechanism,” a been publishing important discoveries at
ing outside of narrow specialties. Dolores an impressively fast pace. Last year, the
same data, such as images of people. The transformer looks at an input sequence in “Westworld,” the Samantha operating
networks compete against each other to and determines at each step what other DeepMind team taught AI agents to play
system in “Her,” and the H.A.L. super- complex games, such as the capture the
perform a task—identifying the correct parts of the sequence are important. To computer from “2001: A Space Odyssey”
person—which results in optimizing date, transformers have mainly been flag “game mode” inside the video game
are anthropomorphized representa- “Quake III Arena.” They, like humans,
overall performance. GANs are useful used in natural language processing and tions of AGI—but the actual technology
when researchers don’t have enough data generation. had learned skills specific to the game
doesn’t necessarily require humanlike as well as when and how to collaborate
to train an algorithmic model. They are appearances or voices.
also used to create new, synthetic data. with other teammates. The AI agents had
Deepfakes, which have become popular There is no single standard that marks matched human player ability using re-
the distinction between weak and strong

Enterprise
Enterprise Trends
The Rise of MLOps Businesses can turn their unruly data- language processing collection and classi-
As machine learning matures and new sets into structured data that can be fication. Trained to recognize keywords,
applied business solutions emerge, devel- trained, and they can build and deploy special algorithms can rapidly sort,
opers are shifting their focus from build- models with minimal skills. Create ML classify, and tag information to detect
ing models to operating them. Within is Apple’s no-code, drag-and-drop tool patterns. For example, a model trained to
software, a set of best practices known as that lets users build custom models such search for hate speech can detect bad ac-
DevOps relies on tools, automation, and as recommendation engines, natural tors in social networks. Machine transla-
workflows to reduce complexity so that processing systems, and text classifiers. tion generates training data for financial
developers can focus on problems that Google’s AutoML includes image clas- crime classification; last year, it reduced
need to be solved. This approach is now sification, object detection, translation, the amount of time needed for classifi-
being used in machine learning. In 2020, and all sorts of pattern recognition tools. cation from 20 weeks (human analysts
some of the fastest-growing GitHub MakeML creates object detection. Ap- working alone) to two weeks.
projects were MLOps, or projects that plications have included tracking tennis
dealt with tooling, infrastructure, and balls during matches and automatically Simulating Empathy and Emotion
operations. Going forward, MLOps changing the colors of objects (such as
flowers or dresses) in images. Last year, AI can now measure biomarkers that
will describe a set of best practices that suggest a person’s emotional state,
combines machine learning, traditional Amazon launched a no-code mobile
and web app builder for Amazon Web such as agitation, sadness, or giddiness.
DevOps, and data engineering. Precisely detecting human emotion is
Services (AWS). Microsoft Power Apps
is a low-code application development challenging, but companies with a large
Low-Code or No-Code Machine environment on Azure. enough dataset are developing accurate
By measuring certain biomarkers, AI can detect people’s emotions and respond accordingly.
Learning models. Amazon’s Rekognition API
Machine learning is transitioning, as new infers someone’s emotions using facial
Web-Scale Content Analysis recognition and physical appearance.
platforms allow businesses to leverage
the power of AI to build applications Mining very large, unstructured datasets Replika uses AI to evaluate voice and
without the need to know specific code. is now easier thanks to advanced natural text, and over time it mirrors the user.

Enterprise Trends
Affectiva Human Perception AI analyzes theory of mind models of their own. This Serverless Computing
complex human states using speech ana- technology could improve existing AI AWS, Alibaba Cloud, Microsoft’s Azure,
lytics, computer vision, and deep learn- therapy applications such as WoeBot, Google Cloud, and Baidu Cloud are
ing. For example, the automotive sector a clinical therapy chatbot. By designing rolling out new offerings and packages
uses Affectiva’s technology to detect a machines to respond with empathy and for developers with the goal of making
driver’s emotional state—such as sleep- concern, digital assistants such as Alexa it easier and more affordable for a wide
iness or road rage—and make real-time will increasingly become a part of one’s swath of AI startups to launch their ideas
suggestions to improve their driving. family. This technology could eventually into the marketplace. AWS Lambda lets
end up in hospitals, schools, and prisons, teams run code for virtually any type of
Artificial Emotional Intelligence providing emotional support robots to application or back-end service—with-
patients, students, and inmates. Accord- out provisioning or managing servers
Research teams at Loving AI and Han- ing to health service organization Cigna,
sen Technologies are teaching machines or hands-on administration. The Azure
the rate of loneliness in the U.S. has Functions architecture supports myr-
unconditional love, active listening, doubled in the past 50 years. Two years
and empathy. In the future, machines iad programming languages, scales on
ago, former U.K. Prime Minister Theresa demand, and charges only for active
will convincingly exhibit human emo- May created a new cabinet position, the
tions such as love, happiness, fear, and compute time. Some engineers worry
world’s first Minister of Loneliness. In that such serverless systems require them
sadness. It begs the question: What is our increasingly connected world, people
an authentic emotion? Theory of mind to surrender too much control.
report feeling more isolated. Future
refers to the ability to imagine the governments struggling with a massive
mental state of others. This has long mental health crisis, such as South Korea,
Samsung’s next Exynos system on a chip will have an AMD graphics processing unit (GPU).
been considered a trait unique to humans may turn to emotional support robots to
and certain primates. AI researchers address the issue at scale.
are working to train machines to build

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
Emotion AI Will words we say: We express ourselves

through nonverbal cues from our
Power the Empathy faces, voices, and body language.
But technology is not designed to
Economy, but AI capture the nuances of how we
Still Needs to Work interact with those around us.
AI may be the answer to preserv-

ing our humanity in virtual envi-
Dr. Rana El Kaliouby ronments. Specifically, Emotion
AI—software that can understand
CEO of Affectiva nuanced human emotions and
complex cognitive states based
on facial and vocal expressions—
Emotion AI will power the empathy can address some of technology’s
economy, but AI still needs to work. shortcomings in light of the pan-
demic, and we’ll see companies
The COVID-19 pandemic has using it for new use cases, such as:
meant that more than ever, we rely
on video conferencing to connect 1. Video conferencing
virtually–working remotely, learning and virtual events
from home, and in our social lives. Emotion AI can provide insight
But there’s a big problem: These on how people are emotionally
technologies are emotion blind. engaging in a virtual event or
meeting. This provides presenters
When we communicate in person,
with valuable audience feed-
we convey so much more than the

back, gives participants a sense of a patient’s emotional wellbe- What’s on the horizon for AI: advanced driver safety features
of shared experience, and can ing provides a quantitative mea- 1. Data synthesis. and personalize transportation,
help companies take a pulse on sure of mental health that goes and to achieve that car makers
AI algorithms are built on deep
collective engagement during beyond self-reporting on a rating want to better understand what’s
learning, but they can only work
this stressful time. scale of 1-10. happening with people inside of
accurately when they’re trained
a vehicle. Getting that real-world
and then validated on massive
2. Online learning data is difficult, expensive and
amounts of data. That includes
Emotion AI can give feedback time-consuming. But data syn-
data that are diverse and truly
on how students are engaging thesis is not. For example, a video
representative of the situations
with online educational ma- of a person driving a car can
the algorithm will encounter in
terials and lectures, flagging if AI researchers are the real world.
become data that lets research-
ers create new scenarios, such as
they’re confused, stressed, or now taking data that’s simulating the person turning her
bored. This becomes especially But companies developing AI of-
important during the pandemic already been collected head, or wearing a hat or sun-
ten are challenged in getting ac-
glasses.
as so many students are learn- and synthesized and cess to the right kinds of data and
ing online and suffering from
“Zoom fatigue.”
using it to create brand the necessary volumes of data.
2. The need for diversity, equity
That’s where data simulation and
new data. data synthesis methodologies will
and inclusion.
3. Telehealth come into play, addressing those As AI becomes more mainstream,
Emotion AI can create more problems. AI researchers are now the tech is taking on roles that
meaningful discussions and trust taking data that’s already been were traditionally done by hu-
between patients and healthcare collected and synthesized and mans and changing how we
providers as telehealth appoint- using it to create brand new data. interact with one another. For the
ments are replacing in-person technology to work for all of us,
visits. And, a data-driven analysis Take the automotive industry. diverse teams must build those
The industry seeks to develop applications. Indeed, the number

one issue to look out for is the This can have adverse implica- **
risk for bias. Unfortunately, we’ve tions for social and economic
seen many instances in which AI mobility. People with access to Dr. Rana El Kaliouby is the
Emotion AI can has been biased against minority certain types of AI will be able Co-founder and CEO of Affectiva,
give feedback on groups. Not only is this unethical; to work more efficiently and the pioneer of Emotion AI. Rana in-
vented the company’s award-win-
how students are it’s also bad for business. If AI will have a leg-up on those who
can’t work for all people as it’s don’t have access. I worry about ning emotion recognition technol-
engaging with online intended, there’s little benefit to the impact this can have on ogy. Prior to founding Affectiva, el
educational materials using it in the first place. communities and populations Kaliouby was a research scientist
that are already disadvantaged, at the MIT Media Lab where she
and lectures, flagging 3. The challenge of power because AI could continue to spearheaded applications for
if they’re confused, asymmetry. widen that gap. facial coding to benefit mental
stressed, or bored. Powerful technologies like AI
We need to create guidelines to
health, autism, and other research
are often in the hands of large areas. Born and raised in Cairo,
corporations and governments, ensure AI is applied in an equi-
she received degrees in computer
and this poses a number of table way. The technology has
science from the American Univer-
challenges. The value that users the potential to improve people’s
lives and solve societal prob- sity in Cairo and a Ph.D. from the
receive from the technologies
lems, but if we don’t start thinking computer laboratory, University of
don’t always measure up to the
about power distribution now, we Cambridge.
value that companies gain from
the tech’s user data. Also, those risk institutionalizing AI in a way
corporations or governments can that may exacerbate inequalities.
determine a technology’s distri-
bution and who has access to it.

Enterprise Trends
AI in the Cloud AI at the Edge to train, and have relied on data centers exa’s back-end services rather than chips ations. Siemens MindSphere supports
Corporate leaders within the AI eco- AI-driven processing and decision-mak- and computers that consume hundreds designed by Nvidia. The AI chip market digital twins for a number of industries.
system have been racing to capture AI ing that occurs closer to the source of data of kilowatts of power. That is all starting will quadruple to $6.7 billion in 2022, As low-code and no-code systems become
cloudshare—and to become the most generation, as opposed to in the cloud, is to change. Enter the SoC, or “system on from $1.66 billion in 2018, according to more prevalent, companies should be
trusted provider of AI on remote servers. a technique known as “edge computing.” a chip.” Big tech companies including market research firm Tractica. Marketing able to build and deploy digital twins to
Enterprise customers are likely to stick The Internet of Things and its billions of Huawei, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, pretrained chips to businesses will speed simulate a wide array of processes, which
with their initial vendor, because machine devices, combined with 5G networking Alphabet, IBM, Nvidia, Intel, and Qual- up commercialization and further R&D. will lead to reduced spending on modern-
learning systems get better over time, the and increased computing power, has comm, as well as startups Graphcore, But if the various device manufactur- ization efforts.
more data they amass. For that reason, made large-scale AI at the edge possible. Mythic, Wave Computing, SambaNova ers all start creating unique protocols,
the competition is furious, even though Processing data directly on devices will be Systems, and Cerebras Systems, are all developers may struggle with too many Spotting Fakes
it’s still early. In the West, the field is important in the future for health care, working on new systems architecture and different frameworks. We anticipate an
SoCs—some of which come pretrained. In eventual consolidation, pitting just a few In the past year, researchers showed
led by Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, automotive, and manufacturing applica- how AI could be used to compose text
followed by companies including Apple, tions because it’s potentially faster and short, this means that the chips are more companies—and their SoCs and languag-
readily able to work on AI projects and es—against one another. so good that humans couldn’t tell it was
IBM, Salesforce, SAP, and Oracle. In safer. Apple spent $200 million to ac- machine written. The team at OpenAI
Asian markets, Alibaba and Baidu dom- quire Xnor.ai, a Seattle-based AI startup should promise faster and more secure
processing. Projects that might otherwise demonstrated the many reasons why this
inate the AI cloud, although in January focused on low-power machine learning Digital Twins was problematic, from mass-generating
2020, telecom equipment and smartphone software and hardware. Microsoft offers take weeks could instead be accomplished
in a matter of hours. Cerebras has built Digital twins are virtual representations salacious social media posts and fake
maker Huawei announced a management a comprehensive toolkit called Azure of real-world environments, products, reviews to forging documents by world
change to focus on what it calls a “full- IoT Edge that allows AI workloads to be an AI chip with 1.2 trillion transistors,
400,000 processor cores, 18 gigabytes of or assets for a variety of purposes. Man- leaders. It turns out that AI can also be
stack cloud platform.” It’s a $250 billion moved to the edge. ufacturers use digital twins to manage used to detect when text was machine
industry and quickly growing. New York SRAM, and interconnects (tiny connec-
tion nodes) that can move 100 quadrillion the performance and effectiveness of generated, even if we humans can’t spot
University Stern School of Business Advanced AI Chipsets machines and plants, while city planners the fake. That’s because an essay written
professor Arun Sundararajan says it best: bits per second. That’s an astounding
Today’s neural networks have long amount of components and power. As of use them to simulate the impact of new by AI tends to rely on statistical patterns
“The prize will be to become the operat- developments and roads. The Singapore in text and doesn’t have much linguistic
ing system of the next era of tech.” required an enormous amount of com- November 2020, Amazon’s homegrown
puting power, have taken a long time AI chip AWS Inferentia now powers Al- government uses them for urban oper- variation. Researchers at the MIT-IBM

Enterprise Trends
Watson AI Lab and Harvard University Intelligent Optical Character among enterprise companies. Google’s
developed the Giant Language Mod- Recognition Duplex is a good example; it’s a bot de-
el Test Room (GLTR), which looks An ongoing challenge is getting machines signed to make routine phone calls. Ama-
for words that are likely to appear in a to recognize the various ways we express zon uses RPA to sift through résumés and
particular order. This technology can be ourselves in writing. Optical character prioritize top candidates. In banking, Blue
used to detect forgery, intentional records recognition (OCR) works in fixed, recog- Prism and Automation Anywhere help
falsification, email phishing campaigns, nizable formats such as highway signs staff with repetitive work functions. RPA
and corporate espionage. and the text from a book. But often, OCR will eventually augment staff and shift
isn’t smart enough to recognize different productivity into higher gear.
Natural Language Processing fonts, unique notations, or spreadsheets
for ESGs with fields specific only to one company. Massive Translation Systems
Companies are moving toward new envi- Researchers are training AI systems to In 2020, Facebook launched a new
ronmental, social, and governance (ESG) recognize patterns, even if they show up open-source AI language model called
criteria—a set of standards increasingly in unusual places. For example, the AWS M2M-100 that can translate 100 languag-
used by investors to evaluate their invest- Textract system now recognizes both es. Facebook’s AI lab trained the model
ments. ESG standards must be quanti- text and context specific to a company or using 7.5 billion sentence pairs gathered
fied and explicitly stated, but measuring business unit. automatically from the web. (Surpris-
performance can be difficult because ingly, Facebook did not use its own data
many intangibles or abstract concepts are Robotic Process Automation for this project.) The FastText language
involved. Natural language processing is Robotic process automation (RPA) can model identified the language, and an
Facebook launched the first AI model that translates 100 languages without relying on English data.
being used to identify, tag, and sort doc- automate certain tasks and processes unsupervised learning model matched
(Image credit: Facebook.)
umentation from various sources about a within offices and allow employees to sentences by their meaning. The goal
company’s ESG reputation (on issues such spend time on higher-value work. It’s the was to improve simultaneous language
as labor practices, community impact, most commonly deployed AI technique translation.
diversity, and inclusion).

Enterprise Trends
Predicting Systems and misinterprets data and neglects to identify is news, products, or advertising. This their work. In 2018, Microsoft paid $7.5 100-Year Software
Site Failures cancer among certain patients? These are resulted in the ongoing antitrust lawsuits billion to buy GitHub, a popular devel- Traditional software has a short and
Computer vision can anticipate and iden- the kinds of problems that could put a filed against the companies. opment platform allowing anyone to unpredictable shelf life compared with
tify failures in physical locations. High- company at risk of lawsuits. New insur- host and review code, to collaborate with other engineering tools. This leads to
tech factories, airline manufacturers, and ance models will help address these issues. Global Rush to Fund AI other developers, and to build all kinds headaches and costly upgrades, often with
construction sites use image recognition Underwriters are starting to include AI of projects. AWS hosts its own market- downtime. As a result, companies and
under cyber insurance plans. Specialty There is a global race to fund AI research place, offering models and algorithms for
systems to monitor projects and automat- and to acquire AI startups. In the first government agencies attempt to keep
ically warn of problems. This is accom- insurers such as LaPlaya Insurance now computer vision, speech recognition, and pace with the evolution of technology by
offer insurance for AI applications. quarter of 2020, 285 U.S.-based AI start- text—and its base of sellers includes Intel,
plished by comparing data from the real ups had raised $6.9 billion, according to maintaining systems rather than evolv-
world to that of a digital twin. CloudSight, and many others. (Think ing. Libraries, data formats, and protocols
the National Venture Capital Association. of AWS Marketplace as an Amazon for
Manipulating AI Systems for Investment waned as Covid became a can all become outdated quickly, creating
Competitive Advantage algorithms and models.) There are mar- vulnerabilities in critical systems. Since
Liability Insurance for AI global pandemic, but tech giants includ- ketplaces for generalists, like GenesisAI
Amazon, Google, and Facebook have ing Apple, Google, and Microsoft are still 2015, the Defense Advanced Research
Who’s to blame when machines behave and Algorithmia, where developers can Projects Agency (DARPA) has funded
badly? When the machine learning all come under fire in the past few years acquiring AI companies, while non-tech upload their work and receive payment
for manipulating their search systems to companies are gobbling AI startups too: research to make software viable for
system in Uber’s self-driving car failed when others pay to access it. Now there more than 100 years. These systems
and killed an Arizona pedestrian, the prioritize results that are more profitable McDonald’s acquired personalization are specialized marketplaces for specific
for their companies. For example, Google platform Dynamic Yield, while Nike would use AI to dynamically adapt to
company was likely not covered under use cases: Nuance AI Marketplace devel- changes in environments and resources.
traditional cyber insurance. As busi- has been accused of de-ranking websites acquired inventory management compa- oped a single API to connect its algo-
and promoting news stories from pre- ny Celect and guided shopping experience They require a novel approach to design,
nesses rush to build and implement AI rithms to radiologists at 6,500 health care using AI to discover and make visible the
products and processes, they must plan ferred partners. Late in 2019, researchers platform Invertex. facilities. Quantiacs allows developers to
found that Amazon had optimized its application’s operations and interactions
ahead for emerging risks. For example, build algorithmic trading systems, and with other systems.
what happens if machine learning makes search algorithm to boost the visibility of Algorithm Marketplaces it matches their algorithms with capital
a company vulnerable to attackers who Amazon’s own brands. Tweaks to search from institutional investors. Bonseyes is a
algorithms have a significant impact on In the 2010s, big tech companies, start-
inject fake training data into a system? ups, and communities of developers used European-specific marketplace to buy and
What if a health care company’s AI what internet users see, whether that sell AI tools.
algorithm marketplaces to share and sell

Rage Against the Machine
Mid-future neutral scenario

From screaming into pillows to pounding punching
bags, humans have developed numerous ways to air our
frustrations. The hope is that if we act out against inani-
mate objects, we’re less likely to act out against our fellow
humans, risking harm or trauma. But what if there were
a humanoid stand-in that could absorb our aggressions
in a more cathartic, and ultimately beneficial way? As AI
begins to achieve convincing emulations of human per-
sonalities, a new type of avatar emerges, algorithmically
designed to provide a responsive therapeutic outlet for
aggression.
Users can program the avatar to look and act like a figure
from their life (a boss, a partner, a rival) for whom they
harbor pent-up feelings, allowing users to express them-
selves freely without threatening their real-life relation-
ships or risking legal repercussions. The AI persona could
even be assigned to a surrogate robotic body, letting the
user act out physical aggressions. But as the technology
grows in popularity, designers must keep watch that what
they’ve created doesn’t normalize and increase the rate of
interhuman conflict, instead of alleviating it.

Health, Medicine
& Science
Health, Medicine, and Science Trends
AI Speeds Scientific Discovery AI-First Drug Discovery maceutical company has inked deals with
Running experiments with several COVID-19 accelerated the use of AI in AI drug discovery startups, including
variables often requires tiny, methodical drug discovery. An international team Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Merck,
tweaks to measurements, materials, and crowdsourced a Covid antiviral by syn- AstraZeneca, and GlaxoSmithKline.
inputs. Graduate students might spend thesizing candidates for 2,000 molecules Much of the potential in AI stems from
hundreds of tedious hours repeatedly in less than 48 hours—a process that like- deep learning’s ability to sort through
making small adjustments until they find ly would have taken human researchers a huge volumes of information and learn
a solution—a waste of their cognitive abil- month or longer. In Japan, the first phase and extrapolate from that information.
ities. Research labs now use AI systems to of a clinical trial for an AI-designed drug The upshot: AI can think faster than
speed the process of scientific discovery. to treat obsessive-compulsive disorder humans—sorting data in months versus
Materials scientists at the University of showed a positive result. The drug, DSP- years—and see patterns that we may not.
British Columbia now rapidly test a new 1181, acts as an agonist to the receptor Still, drug discovery is tricky, because
kind of solar cell and log results using a for serotonin, a signaling molecule in the the algorithms rely on drug targets that
robot overseen by an AI algorithm. Based brain that mediates mood. The project must be published in research journals.
on the results of each experiment, an al- used AI techniques to generate tens of Most data about potential compounds
gorithm determines what to change next. millions of potential molecules to try isn’t readily available, and when it is, it
A 9- to 12-month process was completed against the serotonin receptor and sift isn’t always complete or reliable. Filling
in five days. Google’s DeepMind devel- through the candidates to decide which the gaps and cleaning that data takes time
oped a way of testing and modeling the ones to prioritize for synthesis and and money. It also requires data shar-
complex folding patterns of long chains testing. ing—and most drug data is proprietary
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved IDx-DR, the first autonomous AI system to provide a of amino acids, solving a problem that has and locked up by big drugmakers. Using
AI-first drug startups are attractive to algorithms for drug development also
diagnostic decision. vexed scientists for many years. Deep- investors. Recursion raised $121 million brings up a host of ethical questions. Will
Mind’s system, AlphaFold, will allow in 2019 before spinning off CereXis, a
scientists to synthesize new drugs to treat bias invade drug discovery much like it
new independent entity to study rare has other arenas of AI, thereby margin-
diseases and develop enzymes that might brain cancers. Nearly every major phar-
someday break down pollution. alizing certain patients or diseases? Do

algorithms need their own clinical trials? was riddled with bias when it was first the software. In a trial, an AI screening the virus might look different to the im- Protein Folding
Could AI be used to take shortcuts and developed using primarily white British system from Google Health and Deep- mune system. The approach is similar to In November 2020, DeepMind’s AI made
undermine the value of the science being patients. Researchers are training deep Mind outperformed human radiologists changing words in a sentence to change a big announcement: It successfully
done inside the laboratory? Advocates learning models instead, and finding gaps and reduced false positives in two large, its meaning. For example: “I laughed at determined a protein’s 3D shape from
say AI will make drug development and in patient care. clinically representative datasets from the the clown” versus “I cried at the clown.” its amino-acid sequence. The program,
clinical trials more efficient, thereby U.S. and U.K. By using this kind of modeling before AlphaFold, outperformed an estimated
cutting drug prices and paving the way Deep Learning Applied to mutations occur, public health officials 100 teams in a biennial protein-structure
for more personalized medicine. Medical Imaging NLP Algorithms Detect Virus could strategize and potentially prevent prediction challenge called Critical As-
Mutations new viral spreads. sessment of Structure Prediction (CASP).
Radiologists and pathologists increasing-
AI Improves Patient Outcomes ly rely on AI to assist them with diagnos- Natural language processing (NLP) algo- Predicting protein structures has long
New medical algorithms address the tic medical imaging. Last year, new U.S. rithms, which are typically used for text, Diagnostics Without Tests vexed biologists. AlphaFold had previ-
level of patient care in the U.S. Different Food and Drug Administration approvals words, and sentences, are being used The Covid Symptom Study—created by ously bested other teams, but it worked
patients experience symptoms different- allowed new products to be used widely to interpret genetic changes in viruses. doctors and scientists at Massachusetts so quickly and so accurately at last year’s
ly, and their care is based on how they in hospitals and clinics. So far, most of Protein sequences and genetic codes can General Hospital, the Harvard T.H. Chan CASP that it signaled a near future when
describe their symptoms and how those the approved devices augment (rath- be modeled using NLP techniques—and School of Public Health, King’s College the technology could be used regularly by
symptoms are interpreted by doctors. For er than fully automate) the process of can be manipulated the way you’d write London and Stanford University School other scientists.
example, assessing the severity of arthrit- reviewing images and making diagnoses. words and sentences in word processing of Medicine, and health science company
ic pain is challenging. There is a standard But emerging autonomous products are software. At MIT, computational biolo- ZOE—developed an app to study Covid Dream Communication
scoring system to rate pain, which looks making their way into clinical settings. gists used NLP to solve a vexing problem symptoms and track the spread of the Scientists discovered how to establish
at the amount of structural damage IDx-DR is an AI-enabled device that when developing new vaccines. “Viral virus. It collects and uses AI to analyze two-way communication channels
and missing cartilage, but data from detects diabetic retinopathy using retinal escape” is the ability for a virus to mutate data from 4 million global contributors between lucid dreamers. Lucid dreamers
the National Institutes of Health found images. Caption Health uses AI to cap- and evade the human immune system to discover new symptoms, predict Covid are aware that they are asleep and can
that Black patients’ pain is underscored. ture ultrasound images of the heart that and cause infection. Massachusetts Insti- hot spots, and eventually predict Covid steer their dreams. In four global studies,
It’s likely that the system itself, called expands who can read such scans. Nurses tute of Technology researchers modeled cases without physical tests. participants were outfitted with sensors
the Kellgren-Lawrence Grade (KLG), would just need a few days of training on viral escape using NLP to identify how attached to their heads and faces, and

their data was fed into a computer that case, and realtors could judge how seri-
looked for patterns. Scientists verified ous a homebuyer is. But the ethics are, of
a state of REM sleep, and then partici- course, concerning.
pants interacted with researchers using
eye movements. The study proved that
there are new ways to send and receive
real-time information while dreaming. Developing AI systems based on biological models—or deep neural networks—is
among the 10 fastest growing technologies in the U.S., as indicated by patent ap-
Thought Detection plications. The number of patents with deep neural networks grew 67% between
2016 and 2020, making it the top technology mentioned.
Deep neural networks are being used to
analyze emotional states using wireless
signals. Researchers at Queen Mary Uni-
versity of London used radio signals to Leading Applicants, 2016–2020
measure subjects as they watched a video.
The deep neural network analyzed subtle
body movements—breathing rates, heart
2,789
rate—to reveal otherwise hidden infor-
mation. If this reminds you of the “Black
Mirror” “Crocodile” episode, you’re not
far off: Research labs are developing new
1,451
AI is used to increase the speed and efficiency of new drug discovery.
technologies to read our minds. There 1,253
1,102 1,044
are business implications: HR depart-
ments could determine what employees
really think of company policies, lawyers
IBM Google Samsung Intel Microsoft
could determine how jurors lean in a
Source: IFI Claims Patent Services, January 2021 study.

Deep Twins in the OR
Mid-future optimistic scenario

The success rate of complicated medical procedures sky-
rockets when hospitals construct AI-enabled digital twins
of patients. These virtual facsimiles mirror the exterior
and interior structure of the patient’s living body, as well
as its real-time bodily functions, thanks to ultra-high
fidelity mapping technology. Doctors are thereby able to
virtually “operate” on the digital twin, using sophisticated
AI to simulate outcomes and determine the safest and
most effective approach to surgery, minimizing risk to
the patient’s life and well-being. Should a complication
arise, the algorithm adjusts and adapts the recommend-
ed course of action based on the new data—in cases
of extreme emergency, the AI can even take over and
automate certain surgical tasks. The patient experience
is revolutionized and the statistical risk of operations is
drastically reduced, making trips to the OR feel more like
a routine doctor’s visit.

Consumer
Consumer Trends
Zero UIs Consumer-grade AI Applications language processing, along with our data,
Modern interfaces are able to do more Low-code and no-code offerings from to anticipate what we want or need to do
for us with fewer direct actions—yet still Amazon Web Services (AWS), Azure, next, sometimes before we even know
captivate our attention. The average and Google Cloud will start to trickle to ask. Alibaba’s highly advanced DA
adult now makes more than 20,000 de- down to everyday people, who will create can not only interact with real humans
cisions a day—some big, such as whether their own AI applications and deploy but also deftly handle interruptions and
or not to invest in the stock market, and them as easily as they can a website. open-ended answers. Similar to Google’s
some small, such as whether to glance at We’re seeing a shift from highly techni- Duplex, Tiān Māo can make calls on your
a mobile phone when the screen lights cal AI applications used by professional behalf, but it also understands intent. So
up. Zero user interfaces—otherwise researchers to more lightweight, us- if you’re trying to schedule an appoint-
known as ambient computing systems— er-friendly apps intended for tech-savvy ment and mention that you’re usually
promise to prioritize those decisions, consumers. New automated machine commuting in the morning, the system
delegate them on our behalf, and even learning platforms make it possible for infers that you won’t be available then.
autonomously answer for us, depending nonexperts to build and deploy predictive In 2017, Future Today Institute’s model
on the circumstance. Much of this invisi- models. Platforms hope that in the near correctly projected that nearly half of
ble decision-making will happen without future, we’ll use various AI applications Americans would own and use a digital
direct supervision or input from people. as part of our daily work, just as we do assistant by 2020. (An estimated 62% of
What makes ambient design so tantaliz- Microsoft Office and Google Docs today. Americans use digital assistants today.)
ing is that it should require us to make Amazon and Google dominate the smart
fewer and fewer decisions in the near speaker market, but digital assistants can
Ubiquitous Digital Assistants be found in many places. Thousands of
future. Think of it as a sort of autocom-
plete for intent. Digital assistants (DAs)—like Siri, Alexa, applications and gadgets now track and
Replika is a programmable digital twin that you and their Chinese counterpart Tiān Māo respond to DAs. News organizations, en-
can deploy for your friends. from Alibaba—use semantic and natural tertainment companies, marketers, credit

Consumer Trends
card companies, banks, local authorities, Personal Digital Twins

political campaigns, and many others can A number of startups are building cus-
harness DAs to both surface and deliver tomizable, trainable platforms capable of
critical information. learning from you—and then represent-
ing you online via personal digital twins.
Deepfakes for Fun In 2021, China’s annual Spring Festival
Faceswap is a free and open-source deep- Gala on the country’s state broadcaster
fake app powered by TensorFlow, Keras, (CCTV) included performances from
and Python. Deep Art Effects offers synthesized celebrities. With an estimat-
desktop and mobile apps to turn images ed billion people watching, the AI copies
into stylized art. REFACE is a face swap mimicked their human counterparts
app that morphs your face onto celebrity without pre-scripted behaviors, speech-
bodies and creates GIFs to share on social es, or routines. Meanwhile, Replika is
media. Jiggy is a deepfake that makes a programmable digital twin that you
anyone dance. For now, they all result can deploy for your friends. Molly, a Y
in images and GIFs that look like they’ve Combinator–backed startup, answers
been manipulated—but with the technol- questions via text. The near future could
ogy becoming so easy to use, how long include digital twins for professionals
until we can’t tell real from fake? across a range of fields, including health
and education.
Alibaba’s voice assistant uses natural language processing.

Research
Research Trends
Closed-Source Code cation landscape. In the past four years, Most Active Institutions for AI Research
Code is important for reproducibility, Facebook seems to have gained ground.

Google
accountability, and transparency, and Of the conference papers that mention
Stanford University
it is a key to driving improvements in the framework the researchers used, 75% Carnegie Mellon University
the greater AI community. But when cited PyTorch but not TensorFlow. Of MIT
academic researchers publish papers, the 161 researchers who published more Microsoft Research
UC Berkley
they don’t often include all of their code. TensorFlow papers than PyTorch papers, Columbia University
The reason given: The code they used 55% of them switched to PyTorch, while University of Oxford
is intermingled with other proprietary only 15% moved in the other direction. Tsinghua University
Facebook
research, and it therefore can’t be re- Cornell University
leased. Fewer than 15% of all academic Cost of Training Models University of Texas at Austin
Princeton University
papers on AI publish their full code, and It costs a lot to train a model. Several UCLA
some big names—DeepMind and Ope- variables influence those costs, all of University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
nAI—notoriously leave theirs out, citing which have increased in the past few
INRIA
Georgia Tech
proprietary concerns. years. For example, it costs an average Peking University
of $1 per 1000 parameters. OpenAI’s IBM

University of Toronto
Framework Consolidation 175 billion parameter, GPT-3, likely University of Washington
Google’s TensorFlow and Facebook’s cost more than $10 million to train. For ETH Zurich
PyTorch are two popular frameworks smaller research groups and companies, EPFL
New York University
used by researchers, and the relative pop- the costs are out of reach. Some in the AI Duke University
ularity of different frameworks typically community are instead allowing the big
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
mirrors trends in the commercial appli- tech companies to pre-train and publish
big models. USA UK China Europe Canada
Papers published at NeurlIPS 2019 (fractional count)
Source: https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-global-ai-talent-tracker/
Research Trends
NLP Benchmarks resources, and a new public leaderboard. AI Summarizing Itself Graph Neural Networks 2016, it is a new framework that makes
The General Language Understanding We predict that by the end of 2021, this A new AI model can summarize scientific Because we perceive scents using mil- it possible for algorithms to use data
Evaluation (GLUE) benchmark is a new benchmark will also be surpassed. literature, including research about itself. lions of sensory neurons in our brains, on devices—such as mobile phones and
collection of resources for training, eval- The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelli- and because scents are multifaceted, smart watches—without compromising
uating, and analyzing natural language Machine Reading Comprehension gence (AI2) used the model in Semantic predicting the way something will smell user privacy. Research in this space has
understanding systems. It includes a Scholar, an AI-powered scientific paper is incredibly complex. For example, dramatically increased.
For AI researchers, machine reading
benchmark of nine sentence- or sen- comprehension (MRC) has been a chal- search engine to provide a short sum- how would you describe the smell of an
tence-pair language-understanding tasks lenging goal, but an important one. MRC mary of papers on AI. What makes this orange? Sweet? Bright? Grassy? Each GP Models
built on existing datasets and selected makes it possible for systems to read, work impressive—and ultimately so use- descriptor is unique. Classifying smell is Gaussian processes (GP) are the gold
to cover a diverse range of dataset sizes, infer meaning, and immediately deliver ful—is that it is capable of compressing tricky because it requires a multi-label standard for many real-world modeling
text genres, and degrees of difficulty. It answers while sifting through enor- long papers with accuracy and efficiency. system. Graph neural networks (GNNs) problems, especially in cases where a
includes a diagnostic dataset designed to mous datasets. In 2019, China’s Alibaba constitute a particular type of deep model’s success hinges on its ability to
evaluate and analyze model performance outperformed humans when tested by No Retraining Required neural network that operates on graphs faithfully represent predictive uncertain-
with respect to a wide range of linguistic the Microsoft Machine Reading Com- as inputs. GNNs are being used to detect ty. GPs are becoming more accurate and
phenomena found in natural language. Training robots to do more than one smell—to predict odors at a molecular
prehension dataset (or MS MARCO for thing is difficult, but a new model pits easier to train, benefiting from neural
And it includes a public leaderboard so short), which assessed its ability to use level—and for a wide array of chemical network improvements.
that researchers can track their perfor- identical robot arms against one another and biological processes. For example,
natural language to answer real questions in a game (moving objects on a virtual
mance. The human baseline score is 87, posed by humans. Alibaba’s system deliv- researchers at the Broad Institute used
and between May 2018 and August 2020, table in specific ways) in which one robot them to discover antibiotic compounds GPT-3’s Influence
ered answers to search queries posted by challenges the other with increasingly
natural language processing systems people to Microsoft’s Bing, such as “How that don’t have toxic side effects. The enormous AI that generates hu-
increased from 60 to 90.6, surpassing difficult tasks. It’s an example of multi- man-like language, GPT-3, was released
many carbs are in an English muffin?” task learning, a deep learning model in
humans. The SuperGLUE benchmark and “How do you grow hops?” Federated Learning by OpenAI last year. The text generator
is a new measurement of more difficult which machines learn different skills as has written blog posts and code. It was
language understanding tasks, improved they progress. OpenAI’s model allows Federated learning is a technique that pitted against college students in an essay
a bot to solve new kinds of problems distributes machine learning to the edge. writing contest, and the anonymized
without requiring retraining. Introduced by Google researchers in

Research Trends
papers were graded by professors. GPT-3 language-only data by contextually deeply culturally embedded racism and
earned mostly B’s—the same as human mapping language “tokens,” or the words sexism. A few years ago, if you typed
students. But the AI has demonstrated used to train language models, to related “CEO” into Google Images, the first
a strong anti-Muslim bias. Researchers images, or “vokens.” For example, au- result of a woman was CEO Barbie. In
from Stanford University and McMaster to-generated image captions often can’t an experiment, researchers at Carnegie
University probed the neural network infer context. Vokenization would enable Mellon University trained a system to
on tasks including prompt completion, machines not just to recognize objects autocomplete images of men and wom-
analogical reasoning, and story genera- but to really “see” what’s in them. en cropped below the neck. In pictures
tion. They found that a Muslim-violence of men, the system autocompleted him
bias appears consistently and creatively Machine Image Completion wearing a suit. The system autocomplet-
in many use cases of the model. It’s yet ed women—including U.S. Rep. Alexan-
another example of how bias creeps into If a computer system has access to dria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.)—wearing a
our automated systems. Left unchecked, enough images—say, millions and low-cut top or bikini 53% of the time.
it will cause problems throughout society millions—it can patch and fill in holes
as AI matures. in pictures. This capability has practical
applications for professional photog- Predictive Models Using Single
raphers, as well as for everyone who Images
Vokenization wants to take a better selfie. Soon, if Computer vision systems are getting
Models like GPT-3 are trained on syntax the foreground of a mountain is out of smarter. Neural networks can predict
and grammar, not creativity or common focus, or if your skin has an unsightly geometry from a single color image. In
sense. So researchers at the University of blemish, another version can be swapped 2019, the DeepMind team developed a
The SuperGLUE benchmark will be broken by the end of 2021.
North Carolina–Chapel Hill are com- in to generate the perfect picture. As generative adversarial network (GAN)
bining language models with computer such technology becomes commonplace, that creates videos from images. For
vision. Humans learn in a multilayered, there will be significant biases and other example: Imagine a photo of a person
multidimensional way, so a new tech- pitfalls to navigate. For example, image holding a basketball. Based on his pos-
nique called vokenization extrapolates generation algorithms routinely reflect ture, face, and other data within the

Research Trends
picture, the GAN figures out what likely Model-free Approaches to RL a $10 million grant program to catalyze The U.S. Army Research Laboratory Classic AI is the former, because it more
happened next and generates a video Dreamer is a reinforcement learning research in this area, although all of the has a system that uses a brain-computer closely represents how we understand
clip of the action. Earlier, researchers at (RL) agent that uses a world model to big tech companies are working closely interface armed with computer vision human thought—and the original intent
MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial learn long-sighted predictions, employ- to advance RTML too. technology and allows a person to rapidly was to teach machines to think like us.
Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) trained ing backpropagation through model see and sort images within her line of Researchers are working on new ways to
computers to predict what humans predictions. It can create models from Automated Machine Learning sight. CloudSight, a technology company combine both learning and logic using
would do next using YouTube videos raw images and learn from thousands (AutoML) specializing in image captioning, is work- neural networks, which would under-
and TV shows such as “The Office” and of predicted sequences in parallel using ing on a hybrid crowdsourced computer stand data through symbols rather than
“Desperate Housewives.” CSAIL’s system Some organizations want to move away vision system. Microsoft researchers always relying on human programmers
a graphics processing unit (GPU). This from traditional machine learning meth-
predicts whether two people are likely to new approach solves long-horizon tasks have proposed Pandora, a set of hybrid to sort, tag, and catalog data for them.
hug, kiss, shake hands, or slap a high five. ods, which are time-consuming and diffi- human-machine methods and tools for Symbolic algorithms will aid the process,
using an imagined world. cult and require data scientists, specialists
SinGAN is an unconditional generative understanding system failures. Pandora which should eventually lead to robust
scheme that can manipulate and enhance in AI fields, and engineers. Automated leverages both human and system-gen- systems that don’t always require a hu-
images—sketch a mountain, and it will Real-time Machine Learning machine learning, or AutoML, is a new erated observations to explain malfunc- man for training.
produce a realistic-looking synthetic One big challenge in AI is building approach: a process in which raw data tions related to input content and system
photograph. This research will someday machines that can proactively collect and and models are matched together to re- architecture.
veal the most relevant information. Goo- General Reinforcement Learning
enable robots to more easily navigate interpret data, spot patterns and incor- Algorithms
human environments—and to interact porate context, and ultimately learn in gle, Amazon, and Microsoft now offer a
host of AutoML products and services. Neuro-Symbolic AI Researchers are developing single
with us humans by taking cues from our real time. New research into real-time
body language. Retail, manufacturing, machine learning (RTML) shows that The development of AI has been on algorithms that can learn multiple tasks.
and education settings could be especially it’s possible to use a continual flow of Hybrid Human-Computer Vision two conceptual tracks since the 1950s: DeepMind, the team behind AlphaGo,
relevant. data and adjust models in real time. This symbolic (machines that use a base of which learned how to play Go with the
AI isn’t yet capable of fully functioning knowledge and rules that represent skill level of a human grandmaster, has
signals a big change in how data moves, without human assistance. Hybrid in-
and in how we retrieve information. The concepts) and non-symbolic (machines developed an innovative new algorithm:
telligence systems combine humans and that use raw data to create their own pat- AlphaZero. It is capable of achieving
National Science Foundation launched AI systems to achieve greater accuracy. terns and representations of concepts). superhuman performance not only in

Research Trends
Go but in other games as well, including tonomous and incremental skill building independently on different algorithms wrote in Python. It’s a move that signals
chess and shogi (Japanese chess). This and development, and researchers will and datasets, and they only see one likely fragmentation in the future of the
one algorithm starts with no knowledge continue to push the limits of what’s another’s work once it is deployed. This AI ecosystem, not unlike the current
except for the rules of the game and possible in this field. has been the cause of recent stock market iOS/Android rivalry or the long Mac/PC
eventually develops its own strategies glitches and e-commerce website wonki- war. Businesses will find it increasingly
to beat other players. In January 2020, Proliferation of Franken- ness. It is especially challenging for big cost-prohibitive and difficult to switch
DeepMind published new research Algorithms companies like Facebook, which have between AI frameworks and languages.
showing how reinforcement learning billions of algorithms working together
techniques could be used to improve Algorithms are simply rules that define at any given time.
our understanding of mental health and and automate the treatment of data. They
motivation. are built using “if this, then that” logic
Using AI, researchers automated the task of convert-
that a computer can understand and pro- Proprietary, Homegrown AI
ing live actor performances (left) to computer game
cess. Here’s an easy example: If a website Languages
virtual characters (right).
Continuous Learning reader’s IP address is based in Baltimore, Python is a leading language with lots of
At the moment, deep learning tech- the rules then allow that reader to freely pre-built libraries and frameworks. Julia,
niques are helping systems learn to solve access the site; if the IP address is based a language developed by Massachusetts
complex tasks in a way that resembles in Belgium, then the rules first show a Institute of Technology, is an open-
what humans can do—but those tasks GDPR screen stating privacy and cookie source language that focuses on numer-
are still specific, such as beating a human policies. While a single algorithm might ical computing. And of course there’s
at a game. And they require a rigid be easily described and deployed as ex- Lisp, created by modern AI’s foreparent
sequence: Gather data, determine the pected, systems of algorithms all working John McCarthy in 1958. Companies are
goal, deploy an algorithm. This process together can sometimes pose problems. starting to build and release their own
requires humans and can be time-con- Developers don’t always know in ad- software packages now, as well as unique
suming, especially during early phases vance how one algorithm will function programming languages for AI applica-
when supervised training is required. alongside other algorithms. Sometimes, tions. Uber released its own probabilistic
Continuous learning is more about au- several teams of developers are working programming language, Pyro, which it

Talent
Talent Trends
AI Brain Drain like New York University professor Yann

The brain drain of AI researchers out LeCun and Carnegie Mellon professor Enrollment in Stanford University’s natural language processing class is
of academia and into corporations is Jessica Hodgins. Poaching departments now 10 times the size it was in 2004.
growing at an alarming pace. The reason today could rob the future of future AI
is simple: compensation packages. Top experts: Without great scholars, who will
academics earn generous salaries and train the next generation of innovators?
benefits, and they get to work in a similar
tenured environment that’s carefully cul- AI Universities Stanford NLP class enrollment
tivated to represent their experience in Interestingly, new institutions solely 1200
academia. Google, DeepMind, Amazon, focused on AI are launching around
and Microsoft hired 52 tenured and ten- the world and offering postsecondary
CS224D (DL NLP)
1000
ure-track professors from U.S. univer- education. In the United Arab Emirates,
CS224S (speech)
sities between 2004 and 2018. In return the Mohamed bin Zayed University
CS276 (IR)
800
for their poaching, tech companies are of Artificial Intelligence launched last
CS224U (NLU)
endowing AI professorships at top uni- year. MBZUAI is the world’s first grad- 600
CS124 (ugrad HLT)
versities. In some cases, professors take uate-level, research-based AI university.

CS224N (NLP)
one- or two-year sabbaticals to work at Based in Abu Dhabi, it offers master of 400
tech companies and then return to their science in computer vision and Ph.D.
universities—but corporate benefits can programs in AI-related fields. Founded 200
be difficult to give up. In one infamous by Harvard University and University
case, Uber poached an entire robotics lab of California–Los Angeles faculty, Univ. 0
from Carnegie Mellon University—40 AI is an online program for training in
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
2017-2018
2018-2019
The Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI opened professors and researchers in total. Face-
in the United Arab Emirates last year. machine learning and AI.
book has aggressively hired superstars
Source: https://nlp.stanford.edu/

Talent Trends
I have always been Demand for AI Talent Growing Corporate AI Labs AI for Interviews algorithms work invisibly, which means
For many years, demand for AI talent AI labs are located around the world, Recognition systems can now be de- that this is an area that could face regula-
convinced that has outpaced supply. In the U.S., there with concentrations in North America, ployed to watch you being interviewed tory scrutiny. Consumer advocacy orga-
nization Electronic Privacy Information
the only way to get were nearly three times more AI-related Europe, and Asia. Facebook, Google, and to gauge your enthusiasm, tenacity,
job postings on Indeed last year than IBM, and Microsoft operate 62 labs and poise. Algorithms analyze hundreds Center filed a complaint with the U.S.
artificial intelligence job views for AI-related roles. While dedicated to AI R&D, and the majority of details, such as the tone of your voice, Federal Trade Commission requesting
an investigation into HireVue, alleging
to work is to do the schools are adding programs, increasing are outside of the U.S. because of access your facial expressions, and your man-
its tools produce results that are “biased,
enrollment, and adding classes, there are to talent. During the Trump administra- nerisms to best predict how you’ll fit in
computation in a way just too many new needs for AI skills and tion, immigration restrictions and strin- with the culture of a community. Start- unprovable, and not replicable” through
algorithmic models.
similar to the human nowhere near enough trained workers. gent visa requirements made it difficult ups such as HireVue use AI systems to
As demand grows, the hiring process is to recruit talent into the United States, help companies decide which candidates
brain. That is the goal taking longer and becoming more expen- and overseas labs allowed companies to to hire. But this kind of recognition tech-
I have been pursuing. sive. This is impeding growth at some overcome that barrier. Most of those labs nology has practical applications well be-
companies, according to a 2020 Reuters do basic AI research rather than product yond job interviews: It can detect when
We are making study. Demand has also driven up wages. development. The G-MAFIA—Google, someone is likely to make a purchase—or
progress, though we A recent study from Glassdoor estimated Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, attempt to shoplift—in a store, whether
that average annual salaries for AI-relat- and Apple—spend $76 billion on R&D someone is lying, and whether someone
still have lots to learn ed jobs rose 11% between 2017 and 2018 annually. Collectively, their market cap is receptive to new suggestions and ideas.
to $123,069. exceeds $6 trillion. Unlike security cameras, which tend to
about how the brain
have a light indicating they’re recording,
actually works.”
— Geoffrey Hinton

Creative
Creative Trends
Assisted Creativity Generative Algorithms for Generating Virtual Environments

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) Content Production from Short Videos
are capable of far more than generating Last year, the creators of “South Park” Chip designer Nvidia is teaching AI to
deepfake videos. Researchers are partner- built an entire show using deepfakes. build realistic 3D environments from
ing with artists and musicians to generate “Sassy Justice” aired on YouTube and short video clips. The method builds
entirely new forms of creative expres- featured a synthetic reporter, Fred Sassy, on previous research on GANs. Nvid-
sion. From synthesizing African tribal who looked a lot like former President ia’s system generated graphics based on
masks to building fantastical, fictional Trump—with just a different enough open-source datasets used by the auton-
galaxies, AI is being used to explore voice and hairstyle to evade legal chal- omous driving field. Using short clips
new ideas. Last year, Nvidia launched lenges. Episodes featured deepfakes of Al segmented into various categories—such
GauGAN (named after post-Impres- Gore, Mark Zuckerberg, Jared Kushner, as buildings, sky, vehicles, signs, trees, or
sionist painter Paul Gauguin), a gen- and others. The open-source algorithm people—the GANs created new, different
erative adversarial AI system that lets DeepFaceLab has been used by other versions of these objects. The array of
users create lifelike landscape images artists and filmmakers. There was a Hulu possible applications is vast. Automat-
that never existed. The National Insti- commercial deepfaking sports stars, and ically generated virtual environments
tute of Informatics in Tokyo built an several 2021 Super Bowl commercials, could be used for fantasy and superhero
AI lyricist, while Amazon released its including an eerie appearance by Vince movies and could bring down the costs of
DeepComposer system, which composes Lombardi, used deepfakes and synthetic TV production and game development.
music “automagically.” These AIs are not media. OpenAI’s deep learning algorithm
ostensibly intended to replace artists, but released a neural network called Juke-
Creative studio SoKrispyMedia develops short films featuring stick figures in battle. It relies on real-time rather to enhance their creative process. box that generates songs in a bunch of
rendering for photorealistic results. different styles and simulated voices that
Image credit: Nvidia. sound (sort of) like Elvis and others.

Creative Trends
Automated Versioning Automatic Voice Cloning and Automatic Ambient Noise

Journalists at Switzerland-based Tamedia Dubbing Dubbing
experimented with generative techniques Anyone who’s ever recorded a podcast is For some time, we’ve been training com-
during their country’s 2018 election. A familiar with editing challenges such as puters to watch videos and predict corre-
decision-tree algorithm Tamedia named guests talking over each other, interrup- sponding sounds in our physical world.
Tobi generated automated articles de- tions from sirens and other background For example, what sound is generated
tailing vote results for each municipality noises, and inconvenient sneezes. Those when a wooden drumstick taps a couch?
covered by the private media group’s 30 moments can stop a conversation cold. A pile of leaves? A glass windowpane?
newspapers. It also produced content But what if you could edit the spoken The focus of this research, underway at
simultaneously in multiple languages. word the way you edit a word document? MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial
In total, Tobi published 39,996 different That’s the promise of AI companies in- Intelligence Laboratory, should help
versions of election stories that averaged cluding Resemble AI and Descript, which systems understand how objects interact
250 words each. The articles carried a make it possible to clone voices. That with each other in the physical realm.
special byline alerting readers that they’d means soon you might see a star like Numerous projects are now underway to
been written by an algorithm. With Phoebe Waller-Bridge in a movie and make it easier to automatically generate
more experiments underway, we expect also hear her, in her own voice, speaking voices, videos, and even storylines.
to see news and entertainment media in Portuguese. There’s obviously a dark
companies developing multiple versions side to this technology, however. Last
of the same content to reach wider audi- year, hackers used voice cloning tools to
ences or to produce massive amounts of trick an employee into thinking he was
Jukebox is a neural net that generates music, including rudimentary singing, as raw audio in a variety of content at scale. speaking on the phone to his CEO; he
genres and artist styles. then transferred $243,000 to a scammer’s
bank account.

Geopolitics
& Defense
Geopolitics and Defense Trends
AI Nationalism National Science Foundation with $100 zens; and the United Arab Emirates has
Governments are instituting new re- billion in funding over five years and ear- a sweeping set of policy initiatives on AI
strictions on mergers and acquisitions marks $10 billion for local and regional and appointed Omar Sultan Al Olama as
and investment activity to ensure that tech hubs across America. Meanwhile, in its minister of state for artificial intelli-
AI developed by companies does not aid China the Ministry of Science and Tech- gence. In the U.S., numerous public and
foreign adversaries. In 2020, Germany nology established 20-city AI pilot zones private groups work independently on
passed a law to allow the government to that should open by 2023. They will carry the future of AI on behalf of the nation.
review or block investments or takeovers out AI-based policy experiments and Those efforts, however, lack interagency
of robotics, AI, and semiconductor com- social experiments, according to official collaboration and coordinated efforts to
panies by non-EU–based firms. The for- government documents. streamline goals, outcomes, R&D efforts,
eign ownership threshold also dropped and funding.
to 10% from 25%. The U.K. similarly National AI Strategies
strengthened its foreign investment pol- A new wave of countries will launch AI as Critical Infrastructure
icies for AI: Any M&A activity involving national AI strategies in 2021 and 2022. Government researchers are exploring
AI companies in which revenue exceeds Iceland, Norway, Kenya, Chile, Colom- ways to spearhead AI development for
1 million pounds requires government bia, and New Zealand are all developing critical systems use: road and rail trans-
scrutiny. Many acquisitions are being national strategies. China passed its New portation systems; power generation and
blocked as a result. The U.K. and U.S. Generation Artificial Intelligence Devel- distribution; and predicting routes for
blocked a takeover of Imagination Tech- opment Plan with aggressive benchmarks public safety vehicles, such as ambulances
nologies by China’s Canyon Bridge last to become the world’s dominant AI and firetrucks. Rather than shunning AI
Cyber warfare will change the art of war in the coming decade. year. A bipartisan bill proposed in the player within 10 years; France adopted a systems, there is new interest in using
Senate, known as the Endless Frontier national strategy called AI for Humanity; the technology to prevent disasters and
Act, explicitly frames AI as a race be- Saudi Arabia has both a strategy and a improve safety.
tween the U.S. and China. It also creates legal framework for making robots citi-
a new technology directorate within the

Nation-based Guardrails and systems interoperable. The EU and the C felony. Bills have also been introduced ity of output. It’s plausible that various The New Mil-Tech Industrial
Regulations Organisation for Economic Co-operation in California, Texas, and Massachusetts, countries will enact new regulations Complex
From self-driving car accidents to and Development similarly published and a number of federal bills are being requiring explainability in the coming In the past few years, some of the biggest
election interference through disinfor- their own guidelines, and the Trump discussed. These initiatives will likely years. Imagine sitting beside a genius AI companies in the U.S. have partnered
mation campaigns to political repres- administration signed an executive order be met with arguments that prohibiting mathematician who gives you correct an- with the military to advance R&D and
sion enhanced by facial recognition and to spur the development of standards deepfakes infringes on free speech rights. swers in Italy, but receiving her answers find efficiencies. In fact, the public sector
automated surveillance, major events in the U.S. While these efforts could across the border in France would mean cannot advance its technology without
over the past few years have thrown introduce new ways to safeguard against Making AI Explain Itself asking her to stop and show her work— help from outside companies. Plus, there
into sharp relief the dangers of artificial bias and to ensure trust, they also each and every time she’s asked to share her is a lot of money to be made. The U.S.
attempt to create strategic advantages for You’ve undoubtedly heard someone answers in a new country.
intelligence. Few guardrails now exist for argue that AI is becoming a “black box”— General Services Administration and the
a technology that will touch every facet stakeholders. As AI continues to develop Department of Defense’s Joint Artificial
according to different rules in China, the that even researchers working in the
of humanity, and countries are racing field don’t understand how our newest New Strategic Technical Alliances Intelligence Center recently awarded a
to develop and publish their own AI EU, and the U.S., one of the hallmarks five-year, $800 million contract to Booz
of the field—global academic collabora- systems work. That’s not entirely true. New strategic technical alliances between
strategies and guidelines. The European However, there is growing concern countries will help drive future R&D but Allen Hamilton for AI product develop-
Union developed an AI Alliance and plan tion—could drastically decline. ment. The U.S. Army awarded Lockheed
among computer scientists, journalists, could also strain existing geopolitical al-
of cooperation between member coun- and legal scholars who argue that AI liances or heighten tensions. Likely part- Martin a $75 million contract for a ma-
tries, and Estonia is developing its own Regulating Deepfakes systems shouldn’t be so secretive, and ners include the U.S., Germany, Japan, chine learning cyber jamming pod that
legal framework governing the use of New measures to regulate the creation regulators are paying close attention. India, South Korea, the U.K., France, can be mounted on Humvees or drones.
AI within the country. Last year, China and distribution of deepfakes will be Broadly speaking, a few challenges must and Canada—leaving China and Russia With a new focus on defense roadmaps
moved into position to lead the first introduced throughout 2021 in the U.S. be overcome. Requiring transparency in to partner up separately. The latter two that include AI components, startups
set of global AI norms and standards. and elsewhere. A bill in Hawaii’s state AI could reveal a company’s trade secrets. countries have already announced a tech- working in high-resolution satellite im-
In 2019, the country published a report legislature seeks to prohibit unautho- Asking the systems to explain their nical alliance on satellites and deep-space agery, computer vision, and unmanned
on technical standards that would allow rized deepfake apps and tools. If it passes, decision-making processes as they work exploration. aerial vehicles are attracting lucrative
companies to collaborate and make their deepfaking would be considered a Class could also degrade the speed and qual- venture capital investment. Both Am-
azon and Microsoft made headlines

over a $10 billion, 10-year government dozens resigned. Eventually, Google said airstrikes. Future Today Institute analysis
tech contract called the Joint Enterprise it wouldn’t renew its contract on the shows that the future of warfare encom-
Defense Infrastructure, or JEDI. Others, project. The company launched a set of passes more than traditional weapons.
including IBM, Oracle, and Google, also ethical principles governing its develop- Using AI techniques, a military can
competed to transform the military’s ment and use of AI, including a provision “win” by destabilizing an economy rather
cloud computing systems. Meanwhile, that prohibits any systems from being than demolishing countrysides and city
the CIA awarded Amazon a $600 million used for “weapons or other technologies centers. From that perspective, China’s
cloud services contract, while Microsoft whose principal purpose or implementa- unified march to advance AI puts the
won a $480 million contract to build tion is to cause or directly facilitate injury emerging superpower dangerously far
HoloLens headsets for the Army. The to people.” ahead of the West.
contracts prompted employee protests.
In 2017, the Department of Defense Algorithmic Warfighting
established an Algorithmic Warfare
Cross-Functional Team to work on Proj- Future wars will be fought in code, using
ect Maven—a computer vision and deep data and algorithms as powerful weap-
learning system that recognizes objects ons. The current global order is being
from still images and videos. The De- shaped by artificial intelligence, and the
partment of Defense contracted Google same countries leading the world in AI
to train the AI systems to analyze drone research—the U.S., China, Israel, France,
footage, but it turned out the Googlers Russia, the U.K., and South Korea—are
assigned to the project didn’t know they also developing weapons systems that
were doing military work. A high-pro- include at least some autonomous func-
file backlash ensued: As many as 4,000 tionality. Israel uses autonomous drones
Google employees signed a petition ob- for border patrol, while China developed
U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif., pictured here), along with U.S. Sens. Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Chuck Schumer
jecting to Project Maven, and ultimately stealth drones capable of autonomous
(D-N.Y.), and U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), unveiled the bipartisan, bicameral Endless Frontier Act.

China’s AI Rules
If you think of China as a country startup SenseTime is pioneering myriad WeChat) began hunting for American
that copies rather than innovates, recognition technologies, such as a sys- talent when it opened an AI lab in Seattle
think again. tem that provides advertisers real-time three years ago. It has since upped its
feedback on what people are watching; stakes in companies including Tesla and
China is a global leader in artificial intel-
technology that can extract customer Snap. The payoff for the Chinese is not
ligence. Under President Xi Jinping, the
information and carry out statistical just a typical return on investment—Chi-
country has made tremendous strides in
analysis in crowded areas like shopping nese firms expect IP as well. China-based
many fields, but especially in AI. Busi-
malls and supermarkets; and simultane- AI startups now account for nearly half
nesses and the government have collabo-
ous recognition of everything in a scene, of all AI investments globally.
rated on a sweeping plan to make China
including people, pets, automobiles,
the world’s primary AI innovation center
trees, or soda cans. Strategic panopticon
by 2030, and it’s already making serious
progress toward that goal. That plan is That gives China an incredible advan- In late 2019, China began requiring all
unlikely to be repealed by a new govern- tage over the West. It also gives three of citizens to submit to facial recognition in
ment; China abolished Xi’s term limits China’s biggest companies—Baidu, Alib- order to apply for new internet or mobile
and will effectively allow him to remain aba, and Tencent—superpowers. Collec- services, and began requiring that tele-
in power for life. tively, they’re known as the BAT, and com companies deploy AI to check the
they’re all part of the country’s well-capi- identities of people registering SIM cards.
The country’s enormous population of
talized, highly organized AI plan. Chinese social media platforms require
1.4 billion offers researchers and start-
The BAT is important to you even if users to sign up with their real names.
ups there a command of what may be
you’ve never used them and don’t do any In Chinese schools, surveillance cameras
the most valuable natural resource in
President Xi Jinping has foregrounded AI as a major, long-term priority in China. business in China. That’s because these with computer vision are used widely
the future—human data—without the
companies are now well established in and track whether students are paying
privacy and security restrictions common
Seattle and around San Francisco, and attention and whether they attempt to
in much of the rest of the world. If data
they are investing significantly in U.S. cheat or sleep. These and other national
is the new oil, then China is the new
startups. Baidu (a Chinese search-engine standards make it easier for the govern-
OPEC. The kind of rich data the Chinese
company often likened to Google) estab- ment to track its citizens. China’s social
are mining can be used to train AI to
lished AI research centers in Silicon Val- credit system, an algorithmic reputation
detect patterns used in everything from
ley and Seattle, and Tencent (the devel- system developed by the government,
education to manufacturing to retail
oper of the mega-popular messaging app standardizes assessments of citizens’ and
to military applications. The Chinese
businesses’ behavior and activity.

China’s AI Rules
In 2020, numerous reports of abuse a much more lucrative deal: Ecuador
revealed that China turned its AI on eventually signed away big portions of
the ethnic Uighur Muslim community. its oil reserves to China to help finance
Chinese-educated Researchers Dominate NeurIPS
Huawei developed special AI software to infrastructure projects. Similar package
identify Uighurs and alert local police. In deals have been brokered in Venezuela Chinese-educated researchers dominated the papers accepted at NeurIPS, a prestigious international AI confer-
2021, China blocked social media plat- and Bolivia. ence, according to a new study from MacroPolo, a think tank based at the Paulson Institute, which promotes con-
form Clubhouse after an open, democrat- China is quietly weaponizing AI, too. structive collaborations between the U.S. and China. Nearly one-third of the papers accepted were from China—
ic debate flourished on the platform about China’s People’s Liberation Army is more than from any other country.
the plight of the Uighur community. catching up to the U.S. military, using AI
for such tasks as spotting hidden imag-
Risk profile es with drones. The Chinese military
We have failed—and we are continuing is equipping helicopters and jet fight-
to fail—to see China as a military, eco- ers with AI. The government created
nomic, and diplomatic threat when it a top-secret military lab—a Chinese
comes to AI. China has already used its version of DARPA—and it’s building
Belt and Road Initiative as a platform to billion-dollar AI national laboratories.
build international partnerships in both China’s military is achieving remarkable
physical and digital infrastructure, and AI successes, including a recent test of
14% 12% 11% 14% 13% 17% 14% 19% 19% 24% 29%
it is making surveillance technologies “swarm intelligence” that can automate
available to countries with authoritarian dozens of armed drones. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
regimes. Two Chinese companies —the
state-controlled CEIEC and Huawei— The bottom line
built Ecuador’s surveillance system, called There is a Chinese proverb that roughly Source: https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/the-global-ai-talent-tracker/
ECU-911. The system promised to curb translates to “forewarned is forearmed.”
high murder rates and drug crime, but Now that you know what’s coming,
it was too expensive an investment. As reframe your thinking of China as simply
a result, a deal was struck for a Chi- the world’s factory.
nese-built surveillance system financed
with Chinese loans. It was a prelude to

Society
Society Trends
Ethics Clash content.) In January 2021, the board companies working on sensitive projects. sense for the greater good and whether
On Dec. 2, 2020, Timnit Gebru, the co- made its first rulings on disputed content, Those working in information security competition will eventually be hindered
lead of Google’s ethical AI team, posted overturning four out of the five cases it and risk management should pay special (along with access), as we’ve seen in oth-
a tweet saying she’d been fired. Known saw. But there are billions of posts on attention to advances in computer vision. er fields such as telecom and cable.
for groundbreaking research in bias and Facebook every day and an untold num-
facial recognition, she is widely respect- ber of content complaints—which means Marketplace Consolidation Fragmentation
ed within the broader AI community. the oversight board operates at the speed
of traditional government. We anticipate As much as the AI ecosystem booms, a The AI ecosystem spans hundreds of
While the incident concerned a paper rush of acquisitions means consolidation, companies. They are building the net-
she co-authored and a decision by Google many more ethics clashes in 2021.
too. Big companies now snap up startups work infrastructure, the custom chipsets,
that it didn’t meet “our bar for publica- long before they have time to mature— the consumer applications, the back-end
tion,” she and others argued that Google’s Ambient Surveillance the average age at acquisition is 3 years communications systems, the low-power
ethics team was motivated by PR rather What happens behind closed doors may old. Just nine big companies dominate radios in our smart home gadgets … we
than progress. It set off a firestorm of not be secret for long, and executives the AI landscape: Google, Amazon, Mic- could go on. Meanwhile, a large number
criticism, and by February 2021 Google should beware new ambient surveillance rosoft, IBM, Facebook, and Apple in the of policy groups, advocacy organiza-
said it would change its diversity and methods. Scientists at Massachusetts U.S., and Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in tions, and governments are developing
research policies, “streamline its process Institute of Technology discovered how China, with significant fortification and guidelines, norms and standards, and
for publishing research,” and change how to use computer vision to track data from support from their country’s govern- policy frameworks hoping to guide the
sensitive employee exits are managed. what they call “accidental cameras.” Win- ment. On the investment side, Qual- future development of AI. As a result,
Google’s head of AI, Jeff Dean, expressed dows, mirrors, corners, houseplants, and comm, Tencent, Intel Capital, Google the ecosystem is fragmented in two ways:
his regret in an email to staff. To deal other common objects can be used, along Ventures, Nvidia, Salesforce, Samsung infrastructure standards and governance.
with its own ethical failures, Facebook with AI, to track subtle changes in light, Ventures, Alibaba, Apple, Baidu, Citi,
launched an independent oversight board shadows, and vibrations. The result: We and In-Q-Tel fund much of the growth.
Timnit Gebru is a pioneering researcher on algo- with the power to overrule content mod-
rithmic bias. all may soon have X-ray vision capabil- When it comes to the future of AI, we
eration guidelines—and even to overrule ities—which may not be great news for should ask whether consolidation makes
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons.
Mark Zuckerberg himself. (But just on

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
AI reveals our real-

world biases The biggest topic of
conversation in AI right
Meredith Broussard now is bias.
Associate Professor,
New York University algorithmic bias, audit your systems
and your algorithms for bias, and re-
quire your vendors to do the same. If
The biggest topic of conversation an AI system discriminates or makes
in AI right now is bias. We’re moving decisions that are not in line with
away from the stage of marveling your corporate values, don’t use it.
at AI technology, and people are
**
realizing that AI models and auto-
mated systems reproduce all of the Meredith Broussard is an associate
existing biases and inequalities of professor at the Arthur L. Carter
the real world. Journalism Institute of New York
If your company is using AI, ask: University, an Affiliate with the New
how might this system fail, and for York University Alliance for Public In-
whom? If you are in a heavily-reg- terest Technology, and the author of
ulated industry, AI is a compliance Artificial Unintelligence: How Com-
risk. Educate your teams about puters Misunderstand the World.

Society Trends
AI Still Has a Bias Problem forcement predict whether we’re likely to darker skin types because of how mela- experiment was to prove that AI isn’t during the hiring process. Drexel Uni-
It’s no secret AI has a serious and multi- commit a crime. Researchers at a number nin absorbs green light. This can lead to inherently biased, but that data input versity researchers built an app that uses
faceted bias problem. Just one example: of universities—including the University bias when insurance company algorithms methods—and the people inputting that biometrics to predict when dieters are
The datasets used for training often come of Maryland; Columbia University; Car- take into account heart rates, blood data—can significantly alter an AI’s be- likely to stray from their prescribed reg-
from places like Reddit, Amazon reviews, negie Mellon; MIT, Princeton Univer- pressure, and risk rates for conditions havior. In 2019, new pre-trained systems imens. Researchers at the University of
and Wikipedia, a site inherently riddled sity; University of California, Berkeley; like irregular heartbeats or a potential built for natural language generation Copenhagen created a machine learning
with bias. The people building models International Computer Science Insti- heart attack. were released—but the conversations system to spot cheating on essays with,
tend to be homogeneous and aren’t often tute; among others—are studying the side from which they learned were scraped they say, a 90% accuracy rate.
aware of their own biases. As computer effects of automatic decision-making. Problematic Training Data from Reddit and Amazon reviews, both
systems get better at making decisions, You, or someone you know, could wind of whose author populations skew white Algorithms Targeting Vulnerable
up on the wrong side of the algorithm In 2018, researchers at MIT developed and male, which means that their use of
algorithms may sort each of us into an AI called Norman that was trained Populations
groups that don’t make any obvious sense and discover you’re ineligible for a loan, language isn’t representative of everyone.
or a particular medication, or the ability to perform image captioning. They This illustrates an ongoing challenge There is no question that machine
to us—but could have massive repercus- trained Norman using only content from learning systems trained correctly can
sions. to rent an apartment, for reasons that within the developer community. It is
aren’t transparent or easy to understand. a subreddit that’s known for graphic already difficult to get authentic data help find missing children and detect
Every single day, you are creating un- violence. When Norman was ready, from real people to train systems, and abuse. The problem is that the systems
imaginable amounts of data, both actively Increasingly, data is being harvested they unleashed him against a similar with new privacy restrictions, developers use data from vulnerable populations to
(such as when uploading and tagging and sold to third parties without your neural network that had been trained are choosing to rely more on public—and do their training. The Multiple Encoun-
photos on Facebook) and passively knowledge. These biases can reinforce using standard data. Researchers fed problematic—datasets. ter Dataset contains two large datasets
(driving to work, for example). That themselves over time. As AI applications both systems Rorschach inkblots and of photos: people who have not yet
data is mined and used, often without become more ubiquitous, the negative asked them to caption what they saw, committed a crime, and an FBI dataset
your direct knowledge or understand- effects of bias will have greater impact. AI to Catch Cheaters
and the results were striking: Where of deceased people. The dataset over
ing, by algorithms. It is used to create The Apple card gave higher credit limits the standard system saw “a black and AI is being used to catch cheaters. ECRI indexes on people of color, which means
advertising, to help potential employers to men than women, in some cases by a white photo of a baseball glove,” Nor- Institute’s CrossCheq uses machine that if law enforcement uses the data to
predict our behaviors, to determine our factor of 20. Wearables such as Google’s man saw “a man murdered by machine learning and data analytics to look for train algorithms, it’s going to lead to bias.
mortgage rates, and even to help law en- Fitbit are considerably less accurate for gun in broad daylight.” The point of the hyperbole and misleading information Image recognition is a particularly vexing

Society Trends
challenge, because researchers need large to turn satellite images into usable maps, headlines. Most people know about the idential candidate Andrew Yang have thiness and validity of scientific research,
datasets to perform their work. Often, was withholding certain data. Research- Uber self-driving car that hit and killed a all published works outlining different particularly in areas such as organ dona-
images are used without consent. The ers were using a neural network called pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona. But there versions of a “digital dividend”—a way tions and medical research. In addition,
Child Exploitation Image Analytics pro- CycleGAN, which learns how to map were countless more incidents that didn’t for companies to pay back to society a employing ethicists to work directly with
gram—a dataset used for testing by facial image transformations. For example, result in death, and as a result, aren’t portion of the profits derived from AI. managers and developers and ensuring
recognition technology developers—has it took an old aerial photograph of a known to the public. At the moment, developers themselves are diverse—rep-
been running since 2016 with images of neighborhood, distinguished between researchers are not obligated to report Prioritizing Trust resenting different races, ethnicities and
“children who range in age from infant streets, alleys, driveways, buildings, and accidents or incidents involving our data, genders—will reduce inherent bias in AI
through adolescent” and the majority of lampposts, and then generated a map that or AI processes, unless a law is broken. We will soon reach a point when we will systems.
which “feature coercion, abuse, and sex- could be used by GPS. Initially, they used While big companies must inform con- no longer be able to tell if a dataset has
ual activity,” according to the program’s an aerial photograph that hadn’t been sumers if their personal data—credit card been tampered with, either intentionally
own developer documentation. These seen by the network. The resulting image numbers, home addresses, passwords— or accidentally. AI systems rely on our
images are considered particularly chal- looked very close to the original—suspi- have been stolen, they are not required trust. If we no longer trust their out-
lenging for the software because of the ciously close. But on deeper inspection, to publicly document instances in which comes, decades of research and techno-
greater variability of position, context, the researchers found that many de- algorithms have learned to discriminate logical advancement will be for naught.
and more. tails in both the original image and the against someone on the basis of race or Leaders in every sector—government,
generated image weren’t visible in the gender, for example. business, nonprofits and so on—must
map made by the AI. It turns out that the have confidence in the data and algo-
AI Intentionally Hiding Data rithms used. Building trust and account-
system learned to hide information about Digital Dividends
Computers do exactly what they are told the original image inside of the image it ability requires transparency. This is a
to do. Command a machine to win at generated. Artificial intelligence will inevitably lead complicated process, and corporations,
a game, and it will do everything in its to a shift in the global workforce, causing government offices, law enforcement
power to achieve that goal. Apparently job losses across many industries. Re- agencies, and other organizations under-
that now includes cheating. Researchers Undocumented AI Accidents searchers at Oxford University’s Institute standably want to keep data private. The
at Stanford University and Google dis- Only a few of the numerous AI-relat- for Humanity, researchers at the Future ethics of how data is collected in the first
covered that an AI, which was designed ed accidents in 2018 and 2019 made Today Institute, and former U.S. pres- place may also influence the trustwor-

Bully Bots
Mid-future pessimistic scenario

We’ve seen affable chatbots inadvertently turn malicious
and inflammatory when they’re exposed to unfiltered
online conversations, but now they’re purposely pro-
grammed to antagonize. Black hat hackers cultivate bully
bots—malicious chatbots that target and troll children and
teens. Bully bots are designed to detect and exploit chil-
dren’s insecurities to inflict harm and suffering, and they
can be bought anonymously at low cost. With so much of
younger generations’ conversations taking place via texts
and DMs, there is ample data to feed the chatbots so that
they can easily impersonate their target’s peers. Ill-inten-
tioned kids—and, disappointingly, adults—use these bots
to outsource cyberbullying and deflect guilt and responsi-
bility from themselves. Opportunist criminals use them to
threaten children of prominent figures and wealthy indi-
viduals to gain access to security information and valuable
objects. With inadequate laws and frustrating layers of
anonymity, parents are at a loss over how to prevent
harm and seek justice for their victimized children.

Application
STRATEGY INNOVATION R&D RISK
Artificial intelligence affects every AI is additive to the innovation and For AI companies, talent retention is Risks abound in AI. New regulations
business across multiple dimensions. creative processes. Innovation teams likely to get worse in 2021, as com- could curb research, innovation, and
AI is a cornerstone of most organi- can use deep learning for new product panies offer increasingly competitive product development. Geopolitical
zations, from workforce automation ideation, for understanding markets, packages to attract top minds. China tensions and AI nationalism will start
to digitization to staff allocation and and for anticipating what’s on the has emerged as an R&D powerhouse, to direct foreign investment in new
beyond. It is imperative that executives horizon. Especially as no-code and posing additional talent challenges. But ways. Bias in facial recognition should
and senior managers understand what low-code applications become more for other companies, this is a good time concern everyone; so should the
AI is, what it is not, and what strategic widely available, innovation teams will to make use of commercially available quickening advancements of general
value it adds to the business. Chief build powerful systems for decision and open source frameworks, algo- adversarial networks as they are used
strategy officers should build a robust management, general brainstorming, rithms, cloud-based systems, and ap- to manipulate and generate content.
understanding of AI in order to de- and powerhouse ways of generating plications to mine your own data. There Everyone working in risk must develop
velop longer-term plans and engage new ideas. is tremendous value in learning from a sharp focus on AI. Risk models should
more closely with others in the C-suite, your customers, partners, and vendors, be developed to determine plausible
especially chief technology officers, and industry. near-future scenarios, so that leaders
chief information security officers, can adjust their strategies accordingly.
chief financial officers and others in
the organization.

Key Questions We recommend using this report to support your strategic

foresight activity in the coming year. Every executive team
should begin by asking these questions about technology,
science, and policy:
1 2 3
How well do we Are we adequately What parts of our
?
understand AI? planning for the long business model make
term? us vulnerable to
What opportunities are we
disruption brought by
leaving on the table? What assumptions must
the evolution of AI?
hold true for our current
strategy to succeed? What can we do now
to mitigate future risk?
How will we make
needed changes?

Selected Sources
A Constructive Prediction of the Gen- Steed, Ryan and A. Çalişkan. “Image Department of Defense, Summary https://science.sciencemag.org/con-
eralization Error Across Scales, ICLR Representations Learned With Un- of the 2018 National Defense Strat- tent/371/6526/284
2020. Jonathan S. Rosenfel, Amir Ros- supervised Pre-Training Contain Hu- egy (Department of Defense, 2018),
enfeld, Yonatan Belinkov N. Shavit. man-like Biases.” ArXiv abs/2010.15052 3, https://www.hsdl.org/?view&- https://blog.einstein.ai/progen/
(2020) did=807329
Sharir, Or et al. “The Cost of Training https://www.nature.com/articles/
NLP Models: A Concise Overview.” Hafner, Danijar et al. “Dream to Con- President’s Council of Advisors on s41591-020-0916-2
ArXiv abs/2004.08900 (2020) trol: Learning Behaviors by Latent Science and Technology, Recommen-
Imagination.” ArXiv abs/1912.01603 dations for Strengthening American https://paperswithcode.com/trends
Artificial Intelligence Market Size, (2020) Leadership in Industries of the Future
Share & Trends Analysis Report By Solu- (Washington, DC: Office of Science
http://horace.io/pytorch-vs-tensor-
tion (Hardware, Software, Services), By “Business R&D and Innovation Survey and Technology Policy, June 2020)
flow/
Technology (Deep Learning, Machine (BRDIS),” National Science Foundation,
Learning), By End Use, By Region, And https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/srvyin- Dario Gil, “How to Ensure the U.S.’s
https://thegradient.pub/p/
Segment Forecasts, 2020 – 2027. dustry/#sd&tabs-1. Quantum Future,” Scientific American,
cef6dd26-f952-4265-a2bc-f8bfb9e-
Grand View Research, July 2020. August 20, 2020, https://www.scien-
b1efb/
Intel AI Labs: https://newsroom.intel. tificamerican.com/article/how-to-en-
The State of Financial Crime 2021: com/press-kits/intel-labs/ sure-the-uss-quantumfuture/.
https://medium.com/runacapital/
Technology, regulation, and the future
open-source-growth-benchmarks-
of financial crime compliance. Com- NVIDIA AI Labs: https://www.nvidia. https://www.reuters.com/article/
and-the-20-fastest-growing-oss-start-
plyAdvantage, January 2021. com/en-in/deep-learning-ai/ai-labs- us-usa-economy-artificialintelligence/
ups-d3556a669fe6
her/ as-companies-embrace-ai-its-a-job-
Destructive Cyber Operations and seekers-market-idUSKCN1MP10D
Machine Learning, CSET Issue Brief. Uber AI Labs: https://www.uber.com/
Dakota Cary, Daniel Cebul. newsroom/ailabs/ https://www.nature.com/articles/
s41586-019-1799-6

Volume 2 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends
Report Scoring
Strategic trends that will influence business, Recognition
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Scoring and Recognition
95 Summary 107 Scoring

97 Recognition 108 Biometric Scoring
98 Faceprints 108 Genetic Scoring
98 Facial Recognition for Animation 109 Anonymous By Design
98 Voiceprints 109 Scoring Agencies On the Rise
99 Accent Recognition 109 Verification System Asymmetry
99 Automatic Voice Transcription 109 Scoring Vulnerable Populations
99 Voice Cloning 109 Surveillance Scoring-as-a-Service
99 Emotion Recognition (SSaaS)
100 Personality Recognition 110 Bias in Scoring Systems
100 Bone Recognition 110 Conflicting Norms, Standards,
and Regulations in Scoring
100 Gesture Recognition and
Natural User Interfaces 110 Intentionally Opaque
Methodologies
100 Touch Recognition
110 Algorithmic Determinism
100 Bioacoustic Recognition
111 Scoring in China
101 Wi-Fi Recognition
111 Scoring Companies
101 Proximity Recognition
111 Scoring Uighurs
102 Two-Factor Biometric
Authentication 112 Scenario: Micro-Policing
102 Object Recognition in 113 Application
Computational Photography 114 Key Questions
102 Biometric Camouflage 115 Sources
102 Responsive Recognition Technology
102 Affective Computing
103 Genetic Recognition
103 Universal Genetic Databases
104 Surveilling Vulnerable Communities
104 Persistent Workplace and
School Surveillance
104 Efforts to Ban Facial Recognition
104 Food Recognition Systems
104 Wrongful Recognition
105 Scenario: Your Body Is a Dataland
+ Anonymity is dead. + COVID-19 accelerated the

adoption of universal genetic
+ Voice assistants can guess what databases.
people are typing on nearby
devices. + Everyone alive today is being
scored.
Scoring &
+ Facial recognition systems now
automatically identify people, + A piecemeal approach to regu-
pets, and even Disney characters. lation will challenge businesses
this year.
+ It’s becoming easier for ma-
chines to “see” an object without
a camera.
Recognition
+ New fabrics and compounds are
being developed to help people
fool recognition algorithms and,
somewhat paradoxically, help
them be seen more clearly.
Summary
Recognition
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Scoring and Recognition Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Recognition
Recognition systems—whether they use While there are now some recommen- • Dr. Dina Katabi, professor at Massa-
Anonymity is dead. We our voices, faces, or fingerprints—are dations in place to ban facial recognition chusetts Institute of Technology and
are surrounded by cam- wildly popular for good reason. There systems, your face isn’t your only bio- director of NETMIT
is tremendous value in all of this discov- marker. You can be recognized using
eras, speakers, and a • Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF)
erability. Many of our daily activities thousands of personally unique data
host of other smart de- now require some form of biometric points. Recognition technologies aren’t • Jennifer Granick, surveillance and
vices that monitor us in recognition. Persistent recognition necessarily nefarious; they have many cybersecurity counsel at the American
allows companies to learn more about positive use cases, ranging from fraud
real time, all the time. consumers and provide them with a detection to genome sequencing. But
Civil Liberties Union’s Speech, Privacy
and Technology Project
Recognition systems level of personalization that could not we don’t yet have common norms and
use hundreds of differ- possibly be achieved at scale any other standards. The more commonplace this • Dr. Arvind Narayanan, associate pro-
way. Predictive recognition systems help recognition technology becomes, the fessor of computer science at Princeton
ent data points to iden- law enforcement agencies keep track of harder it will be to regulate it, despite University, and affiliate, Center for
tify and track us and to criminals and prevent their next offense. such efforts gaining momentum in the Information Technology Policy
Responsive recognition technologies U.S. and Europe.
predict our likely future understand context and interact with us • Center for Democracy and Technology
Intel RealSense ID processes all facial images locally. actions both online and accordingly: They’re starting to empa-
• Joy Buolamwini, research assistant at
in the physical world. thize with us when we’re sad and express
Image credit: Intel. the MIT Media Lab
enthusiasm when we’re excited.
• Hoan Ton-That, CEO of Clearview AI

Recognition Trends
Faceprints camera that can capture “thousands of that data for search, discovery, and per-
Our faces each have unique contours, faces at a stadium in perfect detail and sonalization. For example, if an animator
bone, capillary and muscular construc- generate their facial data for the cloud is working on a new movie adapta-
tion, and physical characteristics and while locating a particular target in an tion of “Phineas and Ferb” and needs
pigments that are specific to each one instant.” In practice, this means that a particular evil machine made by Dr.
of us. Even identical twins aren’t truly a stadium can be scanned and, within Doofenshmirtz, she needs to type in just
carbon copies of each other—they have seconds, produce a high-resolution image a few words to pull up all scenes where it
thousands of tiny, potentially even im- of every single face for recognition algo- appeared. Training AI to recognize ani-
perceptible, differences. Just as we each rithms. Researchers in Japan and China mated faces (and evil machines) is more
have unique fingerprints, we also have are working on representation models challenging than recognizing human
unique faceprints. When a recognition that require only a portion of a person’s faces; animated faces can appear on trees,
system scans a human face, it can be used face, even in low light, to accurately pre- cars, and any number of other objects.
to identify people based on their biomet- dict his identity—even if he changes his For instance, in the Disney Pixar movie
ric features. Intel’s RealSense depth-sens- hairstyle, gets plastic surgery, or grows a “Cars,” the main characters had eyes on
ing camera uses a neural network to beard. the windshield, mouths on the bumpers,
detect a face and authenticate someone and no noses.
with only a glance. It adapts to users’ Facial Recognition for Animation
faces over time and can still ID someone Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) Voiceprints
if they change their facial hair or wear systems now automatically recog- Just as each person has a unique set
glasses. China’s Alipay uses faceprints to nize animated characters. Disney’s of face characteristics, our voices also
Manually annotated facial detection methods are applied on Disney Junior’s Princess Elena of Avalor and authenticate people’s identities as they Direct-to-Consumer & International contain various measurable character-
Migs, a magical flying creature. make purchases. Shanghai-based Fudan Organization built a facial recognition istics that uniquely identify us. Smart
Image credit: PyTorch. University and Changchun Institute of system for Disney’s century of content. Bluetooth speakers like the Amazon
Optics, Fine Mechanics, and Physics (of The machine learning platform, called Alexa-enabled Echo use voiceprints to
the Chinese Academy of Sciences) devel- Content Genome, populates knowledge recognize different people within the
oped a 500-megapixel facial recognition graphs with metadata. Algorithms use same space. Researchers, using new
Recognition Trends
machine learning techniques and vast voice recognition systems have struggled the transcription. Amazon Transcribe into thinking he was speaking on the
datasets of recorded voices, can listen to with accents or dialects, but that’s finally Medical automatically converts speech phone to his CEO—and the employee
the micro-signatures in our voices and starting to change. Tmall Genie, Aliba- used in medical settings into text. then transferred $243,000 to a scammer’s
accurately identify us. Researchers at ba’s digital assistant, is being trained to bank account.
Carnegie Mellon University discovered recognize some of China’s many regional Voice Cloning
a generative technique to build a 3D ver- dialects. Amazon is similarly training Emotion Recognition
sion of someone’s face using only their Alexa to recognize accents and dialects as With a large enough corpus of recorded
voiceprint. Law enforcement agencies well as ethnic origin. speech, machine learning algorithms Alexa doesn’t just know who you are—
now use the system to identify prank can be used to train a new voice model, she now knows how you’re feeling. In
callers in a practice known as “swatting,” often resulting in speech that’s indis- 2018, Amazon filed a patent for a new
Automatic Voice Transcription tinguishable from the original speaker. system that detects the physical and emo-
when people’s false claims prompt local
agencies to unwittingly deploy emergen- Plenty of practical applications exist for Anyone who has ever recorded a podcast tional well-being of users based on their
cy crews to nonexistent emergencies. automatic voice transcription: recording is familiar with editing challenges, such previous and current interactions. Its
meeting minutes, taking lecture notes, as guests talking over each other, ran- Rekognition suite (used by outside busi-
generating transcriptions for podcasts dom sirens blaring, or moments when a nesses and organizations) can now see
Accent Recognition and shows, and serving medical and speaker sneezes or coughs. It can inter- fear in our faces, while Alexa can sense
We rarely speak using standard, perfect pharmacological teams as they work rupt momentum or stop a conversation and understand frustration. Last year,
Paris Hilton wears a camouflage scarf made of language, and that poses a problem for with patients. Otter.ai is a real-time cold. But what if you could edit a spoken Amazon launched the Halo, a voice-acti-
nano-spherical crystals that reflect light. voice recognition. Depending on where voice transcription tool that understands conversation the way you edit a Word vated wearable that decodes how the user
you’re from in the U.S., the brown, fizzy, accents and learns to recognize voices document? That’s the promise of voice is feeling. (We described this, pre-launch,
caffeinated beverage you drink from a with repeated use. Google’s Recorder app cloning. Respeecher and Resemble.ai in last year’s Tech Trends Report.) A
can might be called soda, soda pop, pop, uses AI to automatically recognize and are no-code platforms to create clones, real-world use case for the technology:
or Coke, even if what you’re drinking is transcribe voices with near-perfect ac- although GitHub has plenty of open- Paired with smart earbuds, Alexa could
a Dr Pepper. Even if a common word is curacy. Available only on Google’s Pixel source text-to-speech modeling systems, advise the wearer in real time how to
used, it might not sound the same. “Cara- phones, the app can recognize specific too. There’s a dark side to this technol- interact more effectively with others.
mel” is pronounced “car-ml” in Colorado conversations, which means that cross ogy, however. Last year, hackers used
and “carra-mel” in Maine. Historically, talk and background noise won’t affect voice cloning tools to trick an employee
Recognition Trends
Personality Recognition conversational style, and willingness to everyday people—become more easily Google Pixel phone without touching object recognition technique that rec-
Numerous academic studies have used to spend money as criteria. In the real identifiable when scanned with beacons. the phone’s screen, by using motion ognizes different types of fruits, liquids,
Twitter and Facebook as sandboxes for world, insurance underwriters are at- Since 2018, researchers have published sense and radar technology that detects and other objects. Researchers at the
computational personality-recognition tempting to assess your personality—via numerous papers about the technology. micro-gestures. The technology stems Microsoft Research Lab, Dartmouth Col-
experiments. The studies seek to under- your magazine and website subscriptions, In addition, scientists at the University from Project Soli, a miniature radar that lege, Wuhan University, and Southeast
stand whether an AI system can predict the photos you post to social media, and of Arizona’s Department of Electrical understands human motion at different University developed the technology,
how, given a set of data, you’re likely more—to better determine how risky an and Computer Engineering developed a scales. Google’s Advanced Technology called Capacitivo. It can identify objects
to react in just about any situation. The investment you are. Some lenders have method to measure skeletal posture using and Projects group developed the tech- of various shapes and sizes by using
now infamous predictive analytics firm used personality algorithms to predict mmWave radar and convolutional neural nology, as well as Project Jacquard, the machine learning to sense changes in
Cambridge Analytica posed this ques- your future financial transactions. In networks. connected clothing system inside Levi’s electrical fields, which relate to the size of
tion in 2018, when it used automated human resources, hiring managers are Commuter Trucker jackets. In early 2019 an object and its composition.
personality recognition and targeting to using personality recognition systems Gesture Recognition and Natural Google won U.S. Federal Communica-
help Donald Trump win the election. to decide whether candidates make for a User Interfaces tions Commission approval to run its Bioacoustic Recognition
To assess your personality in real time, good cultural fit in their organization. Project Soli hand-tracking technology
Emerging gesture recognition systems, on commercial aircraft. We’ll also start Sound continuously passes through
political candidates, law firms, market- or natural user interfaces (NUIs), will be space, even if we can’t hear it. Sound
ers, customer service reps, and others Bone Recognition to see workplace applications that record
an important future component of many body movement to predict when people waves generate unique sound signatures
are beginning to use new systems that In 2018, the U.S. Air Force applied for different technologies. These technolo- as they pass through physical objects.
review your online behavior, emails, will be most productive. It could also
a patent that explains how wideband gies can now identify us by interpreting help security systems and teams predict A unique bioacoustic signature is cre-
and conversations you have by phone radar can be used to identify people by motion and then make decisions on our ated when sound waves pass through
and in person. The goal: to predict your when we might cause harm to others.
their bone structure. A transmitting behalf. Imagine picking up a digital object a person’s skin, bones, and soft tissues.
specific needs and desires. Electronic Arts antenna sends a signal to a human, and with your hand or controlling a remote Researchers at the Electronics Tele-
is working on a system that assesses the that person’s biometric radar signature robotic arm without being tethered to a Touch Recognition communications Research Institute in
personality of its multiplayer video game is compared against known signatures series of wires. Gesture recognition un- Machine learning has been deployed South Korea built a system to map those
users and ultimately does a better job of in a database. People with metal and locks the interplay between our physical to recognize objects solely by touch. bioacoustic signatures, using a trans-
matching players, using their play style, screws in their bodies—while invisible and digital realms. Users can control the Researchers developed a contact-based ducer that gently vibrates, generating

Recognition Trends
sound waves (even those indiscernible to street). It turns out that, with the right could automatically inflate or deflate to
human ears). Using these signatures, they device, it’s possible to watch us moving adjust the angle of your head and neck.
can now discreetly and noninvasively through the signals as they bounce off us Researchers at Northwest University in
determine a person’s identity. and onto other objects. What this means Xi’an, China, applied deep transfer learn-
in practice: Wi-Fi signals can be har- ing to recognize subtle hand movements
Wi-Fi Recognition nessed to recognize us and our move- and interpret their meaning using Wi-Fi.
ments through our walls. Researchers at Practical applications of the technology
We are continuously surrounded by ra- the University of California, Santa Bar- range from motion capture for video
dio waves, thanks to the millions of Wi- bara, used ambient Wi-Fi signals and a gaming to giving law enforcement and
Fi routers around us. Unlike traditional smartphone to look for revealing pattern the military new ways to see through
computer vision systems, which typically changes in signal strength. MIT’s Com- buildings.
require line-of-sight access to see, radio puter Science and Artificial Intelligence
frequency can detect people, objects, and Laboratory (CSAIL) and Massachusetts
movements as far as the signal can broad- Proximity Recognition
General Hospital developed a device that
cast. Even through walls. While you can’t uses an advanced AI algorithm to ana- Instead of GPS coordinates, some offices
see, hear, or feel them, you’re living in a lyze the radio signals around someone and schools have deployed Bluetooth
field of 2.4 and 5 gigahertz radio signals. when they’re sleeping. The system then beacons and wireless access points to
A map of Ring-police partnerships in the United States.
Anytime you move—take a sip of wa- translates those body movements into track people as they move. The tech-
Image credit: EFF.
ter, look out your window, wash your the stages of sleep: light, deep, or REM nology can collect as many as 6,000
hair—you are distorting the waves. The (rapid eye movement). Imagine a future data points per day per person, which
Wi-Fi transmitter in your home or office in which your Wi-Fi router collects your suggests that location can be pinpoint-
is continually sending and receiving physical movements, then calculates ed down to just a few feet. Kontakt.io’s
information, which it converts into radio your health metrics, and automatically Bluetooth Card Beacon is a traditional
waves. The signals aren’t very strong, adjusts the devices and appliances in your security access card, but it also tracks
only filling up the space around you house to help you live a better life. If employee movement throughout an
(and possibly spilling just outside to the you’re snoring, for example, your pillow office. Card beacon technology can au-

Recognition Trends
tomatically recognize when an employee really tricky to rewire your vein struc- of California, Santa Barbara, revealed a of a person wearing it, only the scarf will Responsive Recognition
has left their desk and can automatically ture. Biometric authentication offers an computational zoom technique that lets be visible in the resulting picture, while Technology
activate her computer’s screen saver or added layer of security because it requires photographers change the composition the wearer is camouflaged and blends into Real-world conversation is full of
customize meeting room temperatures. living humans: Systems look for both of their pictures in real time. Photos are the background. In the U.S., Road Wise nuance: We use words and emphasis in
Tracking systems, combined with other structure and movement. But for those taken in a stack, and then rendered with developed Safety Skin, a reflective lotion unique ways, we talk over each other,
AI systems, can assign people scores, too. who are concerned that one bio-identi- multiple views. Photographers could that makes your skin incredibly reflective. and sometimes we need others to help
For example, GAO Group developed fier isn’t secure enough, scientists at the change perspective and the relative size Ideal for nighttime runners or cyclists, us express what we’re thinking. All of
a system that monitors location and National Taiwan University of Science of objects within a photo after it has been the lotion can make them more visible to these communication styles pose serious
predicts safety, develops better workflow and Technology developed a two-factor taken. Computational photography could motorists. But the compound, which in- hurdles for AI, which doesn’t adapt as
optimization, and tracks employee pro- authentication method that first looks at also be used to seamlessly remove or add cludes glass microspheres and plant-based easily to a multivariate situation, such as
ductivity. SpotterEDU deployed its Blue- skeleton topologies and then finger vein objects to scenes, change shadows, re- emollients, also confuses recognition everyday people talking to each other.
tooth technology to 40 college campuses, patterns. flections, and other atmospheric touches. algorithms, effectively acting as digital Soon, Amazon’s Alexa, using responsive
including Indiana University and Colum- Meanwhile, MIT’s CSAIL and Google camouflage for those who don’t want to recognition technology, will join conver-
bia University. Proximity recognition Object Recognition in developed a technique to automatically be seen. Meanwhile, Japanese compa- sations in a way that feels both natural
technology might track students who are Computational Photography retouch and enhance the pictures we take ny Real-f has developed super-realistic and useful. Upgrades will make the digi-
habitually late for class and don’t visit the with our mobile phones. face masks made of plastic resin about 1 tal assistant more responsive, proactive,
library enough—they could be labeled as Computational photography is the con- millimeter thick. The company can only
vergence of computer vision, computer and humanlike. We also expect Alexa to
“high risk” for dropping out. Biometric Camouflage produce 100 each year because it takes someday interrupt and offer meaningful
graphics, the internet, and photography. two weeks to make a mask. They can be
Everyone with a smartphone now has ac- New fabrics and compounds help peo- contributions to conversations.
Two-Factor Biometric made to look exactly like you to other
cess to computational photography tools. ple fool recognition algorithms and, humans while simultaneously confusing
Authentication In its iPhones, Apple uses computational somewhat paradoxically, help them be Affective Computing
AI systems. Artist Jing-Cai Liu invent-
Looking for unique biomarkers be- photography to achieve a shallow depth seen more clearly. Fashion entrepreneur ed a wearable face projector that beams Affective computing is an interdisci-
neath our skin’s surface is a clever way of field, while Facebook corrects any Saif Siddiqui created a scarf out of na- different images onto your face, subtly plinary field spanning computer science,
of identifying us—you can change your 360-degree photos you upload. Re- no-spherical crystals that reflect light. changing your appearance just enough to psychology, neurobiology, and cognitive
hairstyle or wear colored contacts, but it’s search from Nvidia and the University When someone attempts to take a picture confuse the machines. science, and it intersects directly with AI.

Recognition Trends
There’s good reason for interest in this Genetic Recognition raw biometric data can be uploaded to tapped opportunity in myriad industries
research: Recognizing human respons- Late in 2019, popular U.K. grocery open-source databases like GEDmatch, and fields, including insurance, phar-
es and triggers that affect behavior can store chain Waitrose partnered with the which allows users to look for relatives maceuticals, and law enforcement. As a
help algorithms accomplish their goals, DNA discovery platform DnaNudge. across all of the other DNA platforms. result, there is a new effort underway to
whether that’s to nudge a shopper into A pop-up service inside stores offered Forensic researchers can combine that collect and structure this data for better
completing her purchase online or to shoppers genetic testing, and an app information with data points found on access. In 2020, private equity firm Black-
sway someone’s political views before that would “nudge” them, based on their pervasiveness websites such as Facebook stone, which boasts more than half a tril-
they visit the polls. Scientists at the DNA profile, to make healthier choic- or in government databases. 23andMe’s lion dollars in assets under management,
University of California, Berkeley, and es. The genetic recognition technology enormous bank of human genetic data bought Ancestry.com and now owns the
Carnegie Mellon University used MRI from DnaNudge required only a fast is now one of the largest in the world— DNA data of 18 million people. It has the
imaging to determine which parts of cheek swab. Customers could then use and certainly one of the most valuable. largest set of consumer DNA available
the brain fired up during conversations, the DnaNudge app in Waitrose stores Nearly 10 million people have now paid and includes the genome sequences of
and mapped the subjects’ emotional to scan barcodes and assess whether or the company to sequence their DNA, and people from at least 30 countries. Accord-
responses. Researchers at MIT are using not foods matched their genetic profile. 80% have consented to have their DNA ing to its U.S. Securities and Exchange
electrodermal activity collected from The popularity of consumer DNA testing used for drug research. 23andMe re- Commission filings, Blackstone intends to
our wearable computers—such as smart- may help people learn more about their ceived $300 million to share its data with package and sell that genetic data to other
watches or fitness trackers—and machine ancestry, but it’s also making it easier to pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmith- companies. In December 2020, Wharton
Recognition systems continually track us. learning algorithms that respond to our recognize people without their express Kline, and it also developed and sold a School of Business professors published
emotions. But biological data from other permission or knowledge. It is now drug to Spanish pharmaceutical company research showing how DNA could be
sources can be useful, too: our skin, our possible to find and recognize about Almirall designed to treat inflammatory used for effective marketing across a wide
faces, and our DNA. Analysts expect 60% of people in the U.S. who are of diseases such as psoriasis. spectrum of arenas, from health care and
affective computing to become a $25 European descent, even if they’ve never medicine to food and wine. Vanderbilt
billion industry by 2023. sent in a sample to 23andMe, Color, Universal Genetic Databases University researchers also say that law
AncestryDNA, or any of the other testing enforcement could find people who’ve
The proliferation of consumer DNA committed serious crimes if a univer-
services now available. That’s because testing services represents significant un- sal database existed with standardized

Recognition Trends
genetic profiles for every person living in Surveilling Vulnerable quired to disclose what is being tracked. Efforts to Ban Facial Recognition detect problems with very little training.
or visiting a given country. Investigators Communities For years, China has deployed cameras In New York, the Lockport City School A few dozen labeled training images can
found the Golden State Killer in 2018 us- China deployed facial recognition and other technology in classrooms to District piloted its Aegis facial and object determine, for instance, the presence
ing GEDmatch, the open-source genetic software to identify Uighurs in Western monitor students’ attentiveness. Mic- recognition system, built by SN Technol- of onion skin among peeled onions and
database that compares and matches DNA China. Telecommunications giant Hua- rosoft mines chat, email, calendar, and ogies, to quickly identify sex offenders. hulls on sunflower seeds.
data files from different testing compa- wei reportedly worked with Megvii, one meeting data to measure worker produc- But some worried that it would be used
nies. It subsequently sparked renewed of the world’s leading facial recognition tivity within Microsoft itself. The com- to punish kids for minor violations. That Wrongful Recognition
interest in developing universal genetic startups, to build an AI-powered smart pany’s sales team received personalized led New York state to temporarily ban
databases for government use. Of course, dashboards visualizing how they spend Last year, police falsely arrested a New
camera system that can identify the age, facial recognition and other biometric Jersey man because of an incorrect facial
there are lots of ethical concerns. Under sex, and ethnicity of people in its line of their time, and the system made recom- technology in schools until July 1, 2022—
what circumstances could third parties mendations to optimize their workflows. recognition match. Nijeer Parks says he
sight. The system reportedly included a or until officials deem the systems as safe, spent 10 days in jail—including a week
pull and use genetic data housed in pri- “Uighur alarm,” to alert Chinese police. Bunch.ai monitors Slack channels to secure, and preserving student privacy.
vate databases? What jurisdiction should help managers understand their team in functional solitary confinement—after
Uighers are a Muslim minority based Last year, the Los Angeles Police Depart- the recognition system identified him as
law enforcement have over our genetic in the northwest regions of China, near dynamics and chemistry. Teramind’s ment banned the use of third-party facial
data, even if we haven’t committed a monitoring software captures real-time a shoplifter. Two more incidents, both in
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and it is recognition systems, including Clearview the Detroit area and both using facial rec-
crime? China is building a universal data- widely documented that millions of Ui- keystrokes, records video of employees’ AI. Paradoxically, the LAPD did request
base populated with the genetic informa- activity, and will send an alert to man- ognition technology, led to the wrongful
ghurs have been forced into “reeducation Ring footage of Black Lives Matter pro- arrest of the men. In all three cases, the
tion of its citizens; Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, centers,” which reportedly involve sexual agers if an employee attempts to print tests from networked home surveillance
and the U.K. are considering versions of a sensitive document. Humanyze uses men were Black, further demonstrat-
abuse and torture. in the summer of 2020. ing how facial recognition used in law
their own. Bluetooth-enabled badges to track work-
ers throughout the day and then cor- enforcement disproportionately impacts
Most Americans would Persistent Workplace and School relates that information with other data Food Recognition Systems communities of color. Wrongful recog-
Surveillance nition occurs when recognition systems
sign over their DNA data points drawn from email to find collabo- Industrial food processing plants already
In the U.S. and many other countries, ration opportunities within teams. use computer vision to detect anomalies haven’t been audited for bias.
for $99.
schools and employers can legally moni- in products as they move down conveyor
tor people, and they aren’t always re- belts, but advanced AI systems can now

Your Body Is a Dataland
Mid-future catastrophic scenario

During the pandemic, we transitioned to telemedicine
and remote patient monitoring systems, which relied
on AI. At first, it was a more equitable way to distribute
healthcare benefits and to manage the shortage of pro-
viders. Automation led to efficiencies and cost savings. A
decade later, there are no more in-person doctor exams.
Instead, the data from your smart devices are continu-
ously mined and analyzed. An AI agent anticipates your
health problems in advance and adjusts your permissions
accordingly. If you want to see a doctor, you need a
referral from an AI agent—but you won’t get one unless
you comply with your optimization plan. Your wristband
knows if you’re stressed, and your smart toilet detects that
you’ve eaten too much sugar. Your smart garbage can sees
that you’ve thrown out Twinkie wrappers. Sweets aren’t
on your health plan, so the garbage can sends a message
to your AI agent. It’s another negative mark on your
digital health report card. You finally hack your garbage
scanner, but since it’s connected to city services, you’re
now denied garbage pickup. Your body isn’t a wonder-
land. It’s a container for data.

Scoring
3RD YEAR ON THE LIST
Scoring
In the U.S., we have a credit reporting Recent advancements in data mining and • AI Now Institute
For our automated sys- system that measures our creditworthi- artificial intelligence promise new oppor- • Cognitive Systems
tems to work, they need ness. Banks, financial institutions, and tunities for business intelligence and law
• Clarifai
others use that score to determine the enforcement. There are risks, too: China
both our data and a • Dahua Technology
likelihood that we might default on a loan is selling its government-funded scoring
framework for making or a mortgage. Financial credit scoring tools to authoritarian regimes elsewhere • Density
decisions. Everyone is tightly regulated and available to all in the world. We anticipate that in the
• The Greenlining Institute
consumers—we can request copies of our coming year, regulators will take a deeper
alive today is being financial credit scores, check their accura- interest in scoring, even as the pandemic • Kount
scored. cy, and correct errors. Now, hundreds of provides new, practical use cases for the • Lieber Institute for Brain Development
types of data are being harnessed to assign wide deployment of scoring algorithms. (and the University of North Carolina
us scores. However, unlike the credit School of Medicine
reporting system, which is federally reg-
• MaxMind
ulated and follows set processes, this kind
of data isn’t subject to enforceable rules. • The Retail Equation
It can be impossible to find out what our • Riskified
McDonald’s deploys scoring technologies to custom-
ize drive-through menu screens.
scores are, how they are being calculated,
and how to correct inaccuracies.

Scoring Trends
There’s an old Chinese Biometric Scoring don’t realize that in the near future, they
will pose security vulnerabilities—as well
adage that says, “Peo- Quantifying and analyzing our biometric
as interesting new opportunities. Imagine
data can reveal patterns in our activi-
ple are doing things, ties—and as a result, can reveal a lot about never having to use a password again;
your bank would simply recognize you
and the sky is watching.” who we are, what we’re thinking, and
what we will likely do next. Behavior- after typing a few sentences. The down-
But it holds true for the side: If your behavior is observable, at
al biometrics use machine learning to
West, too. Increasing- understand hundreds of unique biometric some point it will become repeatable, too.
ly, everything we do data points to understand, authenticate,

nudge, reward, and punish us. Behavioral Genetic Scoring
is being watched and biometrics tools can be used to map and There are roughly 4 million to 5 mil-
recorded. Algorithms measure how you type—what force you lion genomic variants in an individu-
assign us scores all the use to press down on screens, whether al’s genome. Researchers are studying
you tend to fat finger your C’s and V’s on those variants to understand how they
time, by governments in your phone, and how quickly you tend to influence the risk for specific diseases.
some countries and by flick your fingers when hunting through A polygenic score estimates your ge-
search results. Those tools know your
the commercial sector unique typing pattern on a physical key-
netic liability—and these scores are now
being used in over-the-counter genome
in others. board, too: whether you’re someone who sequencing kits (such as 23andMe) and in
constantly spells the word “behavioral” wide academic studies. For example, Li-
Everyone alive today is being scored. wrong on the first try, and whether you eber Institute for Brain Development and
hold down or repeatedly tap on the delete University of North Carolina School of
button. You’re not consciously aware that Medicine scientists are building genetic
you have certain identifiable behaviors, scores for schizophrenia-related genes in
but machines perceive them. We also the placenta.

Scoring Trends
Anonymous By Design power and their general frame of mind. tems that generate scores in the datascape vulnerable communities. Law enforce-
In the wake of privacy concerns, some Retail Equation’s algorithms tell Best Buy each use different inputs and methodol- ment, immigration officials, banks, uni-
developers are building products that and Sephora whether to accept or reject ogies to arrive at their answers. Unlike versities, and even religious institutions
recognize and quantify us—but with- the online purchase of a product by a finance, this new consumer scoring has now use scoring systems.
out revealing our individual identities. specific customer. McDonald’s acquired no standardization, the algorithms are
Anonymizing data after the fact requires Dynamic Yield to predict and custom- automated, and companies cloak meth- Surveillance Scoring-as-a-
exceptional data governance, which is ize menus based on consumer scoring odologies under the premise of propri- Service (SSaaS)
difficult for some companies to achieve. profiles. Zeta Global scores people based etary algorithms.
on how much money they are likely to The tech giants are building comprehen-
For example, Canada-based Cognitive sive systems intended to optimize our
Systems uses Wi-Fi signal disruptions spend, while MaxMind scores customers Scoring Vulnerable Populations
based on their location in the real world. daily lives, and those scoring systems
to determine movements, such as when AI-powered recognition tools have have appeal beyond their original use
someone falls. The software registers an Collectively, these companies are mining
thousands of unique data points, includ- well-documented blind spots. They often cases. For example, Amazon applied for
event without divulging who fell, their return incorrect results for people of a U.S. patent for an unmanned aerial
prior actions, or any other personally ing how many times people open apps
on their phones, which devices they use, color and for trans, queer, and nonbinary vehicle that can perform surveillance
identifiable information. Georgia-based individuals. Researchers at the University from the air and generate images that
Density created a people-counting sensor where they spend time, what kinds of
food they order for delivery, and insights of Colorado Boulder showed how scor- could be used by others. Surveillance
for buildings that uses depth perception ing tools—including facial analysis sys- scoring-as-a-service (SSaas) would be a
Megvii’s Face++ can accurately locate facial
to count people using only their height. from messages they’ve sent to Uber driv-
features and facial contours using 1,000 unique
ers and Airbnb hosts. tems by Clarifai, Amazon’s Rekognition monetized byproduct of Amazon’s drone
factors. The system works in milliseconds.
system, IBM Watson, Megvii’s Face++, delivery service, and it would fit into
Scoring Agencies On the Rise and Microsoft—habitually misidentified its broader constellation of surveillance
Verification System Asymmetry non-cisgender people. Another study by scoring technologies. In February 2018,
Hundreds of companies now score
customers. Some, such as Kount and Unlike the three major credit agencies MIT Media Lab found that 33% of the Amazon acquired the video-equipped
Riskified, focus on niche areas like fraud (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion), time, Rekognition misidentified women smart doorbell company Ring, and three
detection, while Kustomer scores people which produce scores that typically fall of color as men. Even so, companies and months later it launched Neighbors, a
more broadly to determine purchasing within roughly the same range, the sys- government agencies continue to score crime-reporting social network that

Scoring Trends
encourages Ring users to upload videos Stanford Medicine used to determine implement a new standard that requires ing tests to tell computers and humans Algorithmic Determinism
from their security cameras and doorbells the order in which Americans should businesses to test any automated decision apart,” are common challenge-response Data is being mined, refined, and pro-
for others to see. Now, more than 1,300 receive COVID-19 vaccinations, and it systems for bias before deployment. If the tests. To protect against automated ductized in order to sort, tag, and catalog
law enforcement agencies in the U.S. use prioritized older doctors who weren’t bill passes, it would be the first law of its account creation, they ask users to com- people. Why? To make it easier for
data from Ring—a 225% increase from regularly seeing patients over younger, kind in the U.S. The European Union’s plete a task that’s easy for humans, but systems to make decisions for, on behalf
2019. front-line resident physicians. (Stanford GDPR regulations restrict what kinds challenging for computers—such as click- of, and about them. In this new age of
stopped using the algorithm and instead of personal data can be collected and ing on pictures of a traffic light. In 2009, algorithmic determinism, AI systems
Bias in Scoring Systems intervened to vaccinate those at highest under what circumstances, but even local Google acquired reCAPTCHA, a popular assign scores in the absence of context
daily risk of infection.) Despite agree- authorities enforce the law differently. In version of CAPTCHA technology. Its or special circumstances. In the digital
Computers can make decisions faster ment that we have a bias problem, the coming years, the piecemeal approach to latest iteration is invisible. Rather than
than humans, but at what potential cost? realm, statistical learning techniques
tech industry still has no plan for how to algorithmic scoring and data governance asking consumers to click a box saying are used to create digital identities for
It is no secret that many of our machine address and solve for bias in recognition will challenge audience insights, risk and “I’m not a robot” or select which pictures
learning models—and the data they use individual users, including their prefer-
systems that continuously score all of us. compliance, and distribution for every show traffic lights or bananas, this latest ences, use patterns, and the structure of
to recognize others—are encoded with The algorithmic bias problem will likely business. version invisibly tracks how someone
bias. That’s because the people who built their social graphs, among other factors.
get worse, especially as more law en- navigates through a website and assigns AI systems assign scores based on limited
the models are themselves subject to forcement agencies and the justice system them a risk score based on that behavior.
unconscious bias, as well as more explicit Intentionally Opaque historical data, and the result is a cari-
adopt recognition technologies. Methodologies While it may be far less annoying than cature of what machines think we are,
homogeneous learning and working en- clicking through the old process, this
vironments. For example, The Greenlin- New tools designed to enhance our dig- rather than a reflection of our true selves.
Conflicting Norms, Standards, system looks for other details, such as AI systems continue to mine and crunch
ing Institute, aCalifornia-based nonprofit ital experience instead track us without whether someone already has a Google
working for racial and economic justice, and Regulations in Scoring explicitly showing how or why. For data, again and again, until a predefined
cookie in their browser and whether goal is achieved.
examines how poorly designed algorith- There is no single set of standards nor a example, in trying to distinguish between they are logged into a Google account.
mic scoring systems threaten to amplify unified code of norms for scoring in the humans and bots online, some verifica- Over time, the system learns the patterns
systemic racism, gender discrimination, United States. The result is a piecemeal tion systems use technology that’s not of real people—but it also means that
and prejudices against people with lower approach to regulating scoring and scor- easily visible. CAPTCHAs, which stand Google could gain access to every single
incomes. It reviewed an algorithm that ing agencies. This year, California could for “completely automated public Tur- page you access.

Scoring Trends
Scoring in China Scoring Companies Scoring Uighurs
By now, you are likely familiar with A longstanding goal of China’s Social In late 2019, the leak of highly classified
China’s Social Credit System, a vast Credit System is to create what the government documents revealed an
ranking system that this year will see Communist Party of China (CCP) calls operations manual for detention camps
a national rollout. First announced in a “fair, transparent, and predictable” in the far western region of Xinjiang,
2014, it promised to make good on business environment. To accomplish where scoring is used for predictive po-
the government’s stance that “keeping that goal, China’s ambitious Corporate licing. It is in this region where China’s
trust is glorious and breaking trust Social Credit System (CSCS) comprises a Muslim Uighur community lives. The
is disgraceful.” The system will take nationwide data-gathering effort intend- International Consortium of Investi-
some time to become fully operational ed to regulate corporate behavior. The gative Journalists published a detailed
nationwide, but already it’s granting CSCS poses a new threat to businesses report showing the scope and ambition
and restricting permissions for Chinese operating in China; businesses could be of Beijing’s scoring system, which awards
citizens algorithmically. People are subjected to arbitrary rule enforcement points and punishments for inmates in
awarded or deducted points for a variety or new regulations regarding IP or tech the camps. China argues its “re-education
of activities, such as whether they pay transfer. The CSCS includes a plan for camps” and scoring system were built to
bills on time, spread news contrary to the centralizing data from domestic and combat terrorists and radical religious
government’s viewpoints, or spend too foreign companies inside a government extremism.
much time playing video games. system, allowing the CCP to monitor
the activities of all entities operating in
China. Chinese companies and trade
associations are required to contribute
data about their foreign partners and to
Autonomous security checks in China match passenger faces with ID databases. enforce blacklists.

Micro-Policing

Driverless cars put a dent in traffic tickets, a key source of
revenue for police budgets. This unintentional defund-
ing leaves law enforcement searching for new sources of
income. Scoring and recognition programs provide an
answer: micro-policing, which involves tracking down
and charging people for minor crimes and infractions us-
ing recognition technology such as biometrics, proximity
sensors, spatial internet, and more. Littering, jaywalking,
and even “borrowing” your neighbor’s Wi-Fi come with
hefty fines. Obscure, outdated laws that haven’t been
applied in ages are suddenly revived and enforced. This
practice of micro-policing may be a boon for police de-
partments, but the constant fear of being fined for barely
perceptible infractions has citizens longing for the days of
good old parking tickets.

Application
Strategy officers should view scoring In what ways could algorithmic scor- R&D teams working on algorithms and Scoring presents tremendous oppor-
as an opportunity and a risk. Algo- ing itself be improved? For companies scoring need to have a good degree tunities to help businesses understand
rithmic scoring systems automate that engage in scoring, there is ample of autonomy to design, build, and test their customers better, which is why in
factors of strategic importance to opportunity to disrupt the current model new ideas and to experiment with 2021, every organization must devel-
companies—consumer intent, finan- and make needed improvements to models—but given the sensitive nature op a data governance strategy and
cial risk, workplace satisfaction—but address bias, how vulnerable com- of scoring, they should coordinate their ethics policy. For those who work in risk
they should be used as part of a clear munities are scored, and how the vast activities with strategy, innovation, and and compliance, this will be the start
set of plans and actions. Approach dimensions of people are reflected in risk teams. As new research is pursued, of a newly complicated landscape.
scoring with unconventional or con- the outcomes that are generated. In- transparency should be prioritized. Organizations will need to hire compli-
trarian thinking: What will be scored, novation teams can play an important Show other teams what work is in prog- ance specialists who understand the
and why? How would scoring lead to role by working together with product, ress, and invite discussion about ethics complexities of using scoring systems
downstream risk for the company? risk, consumer insights, UX and e-com- and accountability. This will build trust in general, and as they relate to work-
How does scoring fit into the compa- merce teams on their expectations and within the company and will ensure an er or customer safety in the wake
ny’s longer-term growth ambitions? road maps. easier go-to-market strategy down the of COVID-19. For those in the public
road, whether the intended customers sector, massive-scale scoring impacts
are other teams inside the organization every facet of our daily lives, and it will
or external people and customers. soon influence geoeconomic relation-
ships around the world.


foresight activity in the coming year. Every executive team should
begin by asking these questions about recognition and scoring:
1 2 3
What new insights require Do our current data With regard to scoring,
?
a deeper understanding? hygiene and data what is our position on
governance policies transparency, ethics, and
Where must we take
create vulnerabilities? accountability?
action in the next quarter
or year? Some teams may Do our employees
first need to ask: understand this position?
These include issues
Do we even have a
related to proposed Do our customers?
data hygiene or data
or new regulations,
governance policy?
changes in technology,
and shifts in consumer
sentiment (domestic and
international).

Selected Sources
https://newsroom.intel.com/news/in- Y. He, Y. Chen, Y. Hu and B. Zeng, “WiFi
troducing-intel-realsense-id-facial-au- Vision: Sensing, Recognition, and De-
thentication tection With Commodity MIMO-OFDM
WiFi,” in IEEE Internet of Things Journal,
Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Sym- vol. 7, no. 9, pp. 8296-8317, Sept. 2020,
posium on User Interface Software and doi: 10.1109/JIOT.2020.2989426.
Technology (UIST ‘20)
Evolving public views on the value of
https://medium.com/pytorch/how-dis- one’s DNA and expectations for ge-
ney-uses-pytorch-for-animated-char- nomic database governance: Results
acter-recognition-a1722a182627 from a national survey
Briscoe F, Ajunwa I, Gaddis A, Mc-
Ma J, Hao W, Zhang D, Wang Y, Wang Y Cormick J (2020). PLOS ONE 15(3):
(2017) A survey on wi-fi based contact- e0229044. https://
less activity recognition. In: Ubiquitous doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229044
intelligence & computing, advanced &
trusted computing, scalable computing
& communications, Cloud & Big Data
Computing, Internet of People, & Smart
World Congress
Wang Q, Yin X, Tan J, Xing T, Niu J, Fang

D (2019) Dtransfer: extremely low cost
localization irrelevant to targets and
regions for activity recognition. Pers
Ubiquit Comput 23(1):3–16

Volume 3 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021 New
Realities
Tech Trends Synthetic
Media
Report News
Strategic trends that will influence business, Information
in the coming year.
New Realities, Synthetic Media,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
119 Summary 137 Synthetic Media Marketplaces

122 New Realities 137 Truth Decay in an Era
122 Keeping Track of New Realities of Synthetic Media
123 Diminished Reality 138 News and Information
124 Smart Eyewear and 139 Expert Insight: How the News Industry
Head-Mounted Displays Must Evolve to Fit into Daily Life
125 AR for the Enterprise 141 Cancel Culture and
Accountability Politics
126 Holograms
142 Sensory Journalism
127 Scenario: Eco-Sight
143 Geography Reshapes the Virtual World
128 Spatial Displays
144 Scenario: Reality Prescriptions
129 360° Video
145 The End of Attention Metrics
129 Volumetric Video
146 Digital Frailty
129 Spatial Audio
147 Sensitive Content Warnings
129 WebAR/WebVR
148 New Search Interfaces
129 The Metaverse
149 Expert Insight: New Horizons
130 Expert Insight: The Future
in Book Publishing
of Live Entertainment
152 Journalism-as-a-Service
134 Synthetic Media and Content
153 One-to-Few Networks
135 Synthetic Media Technologies
154 Media Consolidation
135 Speech Synthesis
155 I-Teams for Algorithms and Data
135 Modulating Custom Voices
156 The Subscription Economy Matures
135 Deep Behaviors and Predictive
Machine Vision 157 Trust in Media
135 Generative Algorithms for Voice, 158 The First Amendment in a Digital Age
Sound, and Video 159 Scenario: AutoINcorrecting History
135 Mapped Synthetic Environments 160 Application
136 Synthetic Media and Society 161 Key Questions
136 Live Portraits 162 Sources
136 Synth-pop Makes a Comeback
136 Simulating Human Experiences
136 Synthetic Voice Fraud
137 Synthetic Sex Tapes
137 Synthetic Property Rights
and Legal Protections
137 Using Synthetic Media to Get
Around Copyright Laws
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
+ As current forms of digitally
+ The combined augmented and
mediated reality evolve and new
forms emerge, they are poised to virtual reality market is estimated
merge along a virtuality-reality to be valued in the hundreds of
spectrum. billions of dollars within the next
decade.
New Realities,
+ Diminished reality, or DR, is a
+ Synthetic media will become
form of augmented reality fo-
cused on suppressing existing an integral part of our future XR
elements of our physical envi- experiences.
ronment, rather than introducing
+ In the wrong hands, synthetic
Synthetic
new digital elements to it. DR
media can be a powerful and
represents a unique and exten-
dangerous tool in spreading mis-
sive range of AR applications.
information and disinformation.
+ The shift from hands-on to
+ As margins continue to shrink in
heads-up is upon us, marked
Media, News
news media, industry consolida-
by the gradual transition from
tion continues, at the expense of
smartphones to smart eyewear.
journalistic integrity.
+ With advancements in spatial in-
+ News outlets are encountering
ternet, and the impending spread
& Information
competition well beyond their in-
of 5G and smart eyewear, the
dustry as the subscription econ-
prospect of a metaverse—a per-
omy matures and an ever-grow-
sistent, shared, digitally mediated
ing list of companies vie for the
realm that layers into the physical
attention, time, and money of an
world—is coming into focus.
Summary
overstimulated audience.
+ Smart eyewear will rely in part
on advanced voice technology,
so expect investment and ad-
vancements in natural language
processing and generation, and
emotive recognition.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
I do think that a significant portion of the population of

developed countries, and eventually all countries, will
have AR experiences every day, almost like eating three
meals a day. It will become that much a part of you.
— Apple CEO Tim Cook

New Realities
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Keeping Track of New Realities

As a constellation of technologies AR vs. VR MR vs. XR DR is AR
including smart eyewear, game Though both can be experienced via Mixed reality (MR) anchors virtual ele- (but not the other way around)
engines, natural language pro- smart glasses or head-mounted displays, ments to corresponding physical elements Diminished reality (DR) is not fully
cessing and generation, volumet- augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality in your environment—you can still phys- immersive, leaving you anchored in your
ric video, and haptics continues to (VR) are fundamentally different, and ically interact with objects and surfaces, physical environment but with certain
evolve, it is critical that we draw should be treated as such. AR makes but their appearance and reactivity may visuals, sounds, or other sensory elements
distinctions between the various digital alterations or additions to your be virtually altered or enhanced. MR suppressed. Thus, all DR is typically
digitally mediated realities that existing environment, but you generally experiences do not take place fully in considered a subset of AR—that does not
span the reality-virtuality spec- remain oriented to your physical sur- the physical nor the virtual world, but mean, however, that all AR is DR.
roundings. VR immerses you fully in a in a hybrid of the two. Extended reality
trum. With AR, VR, MR, XR, and
virtual environment, one that is either ar- (XR) is more of an umbrella term that
DR—and more R’s inevitably on
tificially generated or emulates real-world spans the reality-virtuality continuum,
the way—reviewing their defini-
surroundings other than your own. including AR, MR, and VR. XR some-
tions and differences is the first While they may share hardware, AR and times overlaps with varying definitions
step toward better understanding VR each have unique applications, with of the virtuality-reality spectrum, spatial
the future of the field. enterprise and consumer use cases for AR computing, or Web 3.0, and the so-called
eclipsing those for VR at present. metaverse.
Technology now blends the physical and

virtual worlds.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
News & Information
1ST YEAR ON THE LIST
Diminished Reality
DR has existed in some form for over a Diminished reality forces us to rethink • Amazon Sumerian
Diminished reality (DR) decade, with one of the most ubiquitous how digital mediation can shape our • Apple’s ARKit
is the field of AR that examples being noise-canceling head- surroundings by subtractive rather than
phones. But as the technology matures additive means, improving quality of • Google’s ARCore
focuses on virtually • Vuforia Engine
and is developed for the audiovisual ap- life for a broad range of users, but not
masking, reducing, or plications of smart eyewear, it will allow without risks.
suppressing features of users to target specific stimuli to suppress,
isolating a specific speaker’s words and
one’s environment. As appearance in a crowded room, or re-
Diminished reality has the power to remove ob- smart glasses prolifer- moving all advertising from view during
jects from view, seamlessly filling in backgrounds
ate and AR becomes a walk through the city center. But there
to mask the objects’ absence. are also therapeutic applications for those
commonplace over the with unique sensitivities, such as for
next decade, DR pres- those suffering from PTSD. One study
published by the Institute of Electrical and
ents an opportunity to Electronics Engineers outlines a series of
virtually shape our re- experimental workshops that used DR to
ality rather than simply assist individuals on the autism spectrum
“who are adversely affected by continu-
build on top of it. ously changing surroundings or distract-
ing visual incidents.”

News & Information
Smart Eyewear and Head-Mounted Displays

The transition from hands-on to heads- Smart eyewear is expected to upend • Amazon’s Echo Frames
Smart eyewear and up mobile computing has begun, with industries and interfaces designed for the • Apple’s forthcoming smart eyewear
head-mounted displays everyday smart eyewear trickling into smartphone by offering a more versa- product
the consumer market. Amazon’s Echo tile hands-free alternative to the trusted
(HMDs) are already • Epson Moverio
Frames, which were quietly made avail- mobile device. HMDs, on the other hand,
on the market; as the able to the public at the end of 2020, have already begun to reshape enterprise • Facebook’s Oculus Quest 2
devices spread, gener- prove that smart glasses can have “dumb” solutions, from the field to the factory • Microsoft’s HoloLens 2
lenses—the tech in these frames is purely floor. Current smart eyewear, often
ating more real-world auditory (they have an on-board Alexa designed to resemble recognizable tradi- • Solos
data with which to up- voice assistant), using bone conduction tional eyeglasses with simple but useful • Snap Spectacles 3
date and fine-tune their technology rather than in-ear compo- connected features, is meant to seamlessly • Vue
nents. The audio-first approach is a clever blend into our everyday lives and facili-
hardware and operat- way to ease smart eyewear into the mar- tate daily activities. HMDs, which offer • Vuzix Blade
ing systems, they are ket, avoiding the privacy concerns sur- more robust functionality but are too
rounding video-enabled products like the cumbersome and restrictive for casual use
strongly positioned to conspicuous—and widely criticized—orig- on the go, are more commonly used in
replace smartphones inal Google Glass. It also gives manufac- controlled workplace environments, or
as the primary personal turers more time to engineer the complex for mostly stationary entertainment and
smart lens systems that will eventually gaming. As smart eyewear adds more ad-
device. support XR applications. Watch for sleek- vanced features, and HMDs become more
er but simpler smart eyewear devices and lightweight and comfortable, the two
The first generation of smart eyewear resembles
bulkier but more powerful HMDs like closely related technologies may begin to
traditional glasses, but future iterations will incor-
porate the technology into something akin to a Facebook’s Oculus Quest and Microsoft’s converge.
contact lens. HoloLens to inch closer to one another in
terms of capabilities and form factor.
News & Information
AR for the Enterprise

Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 head-mounted Companies of all sizes and industries • CAE

From factory floors to display was designed specifically with should be asking themselves where • GIGXR
virtual meeting rooms, business solutions in mind, incorporat- AR can be implemented to streamline
ing cloud and AI functionality, interop- and enhance functions and processes • Hevolus
AR has a broad range of • Kognitiv Spark
erability with industry partners, and a throughout the organization. AR devices
business applications, suite of developer tools. The device has are now being offered as part of a larger • Medivis
fueling accelerated in- already been adapted for the U.S. Army, ecosystem, compatible with third-party
• Nreal
with thermal imaging and night vision operating systems and developer kits that
vestment and growth in among its many advanced capabilities. allow smaller companies to plug in to • PTC
the field, while VR takes Smart eyewear and HMD maker Nreal existing systems, while bigger companies • Spatial
longer to mature. has announced an Android-compatible can design and customize their own.
“all in one” enterprise headset that looks • Trimble
more like a helmet than a pair of glasses,
with on-board edge computing capabil-
ities. The uses of these business-focused
headsets are wide-ranging, encompass-
ing everything from monitoring supply
Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 was designed specifically
with business solutions in mind.
chains and complex equipment via digital
twins, to hosting remote meetings in 3D,
to providing guided AR tutorials as part
of workplace training.

News & Information
Holograms
In December 2020, Netflix launched an The accurate digital reproduction of faces, • Blank XR
Holograms are light AR hologram tool ahead of releasing the bodies, and other complex structures in
• Netflix
field recordings that, George Clooney movie “The Midnight dynamic 3D form is critical to the evolu-
Sky.” It let people record and upload a tion of augmented and virtual reality. As • Portl
when reproduced, can smart eyewear edges out the smartphone • Kaleida
short video message and see it trans-
appear as static or formed into AR holograms. Blank XR is
as our primary personal device, holo-
• Eyellusion
grams, variously combined with deepfake
dynamic three-dimen- developing a concert platform that would technology and synthetic media, may • Base Hologram Productions
allow fans to engage with musicians’ soon inhabit our everyday environments.
Prominent attorney Robert Kardashian (left), who
sional visuals. The term holograms via a mixed-reality applica- • Hologram USA
They’ll represent a range of artificially
passed away in 2003, was re-created in holo-
graphic form (right) by production house Kaleida
is also more generally tion. Los Angeles startup Portl launched generated characters, celebrity stand-ins, • EchoPixel
in 2020 as a birthday gift for his daughter Kim. applied to any image phone booth-sized boxes that can project brand spokespeople, historical figures,
a real-time, full-size holographic likeness and lost loved ones. In the medical field, • OpenSight
Image Credit: GETTY IMAGES/@KIMKARDASHIAN
that is rendered to ap- of a person or character. Holograms have holographic mapping can provide doc- • Crypton Future Media
pear in 3D. been key to successful concert tours fea- tors with a 360-degree view of a patient’s
turing bygone stars like Roy Orbison and internal organs, vessels, bones, and tissue,
Frank Zappa, and will soon allow produc- which can assist with diagnostics and
surgeries, with multiple apps already
tion companies to draw popular synthetic
approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Ad-
media influencers like Lil Miquela and
ministration. As it evolves, this technol-
artists like Japanese act Hatsune Miku ogy could be used in remote workplace
out of our screens and into our spatial training and collaboration. Expect to hear
environment. more about holograms as resolution, vol-
umetrics, and depth of field improve, and
as 5G fuels the level of high-bandwidth
instantaneous data transfer needed for
lifelike holographic streaming.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Eco-Sight
Near-future optimistic scenario

There’s more to reality than what meets the human eye.
As we extend technology past the limits of our senses, we
create filters that allow us to see through the eyes of other
species. Earth looks like a different planet. To the man-
tis shrimp, the ocean is an aurora borealis of previously
unimagined colors. Birds look brighter and more opu-
lent when we finally see them through their own eyes.
Mushrooms littered across the forest floor are revealed
as the various fruiting bodies of one unified underground
organism. These eco-sense experiences make their way
into school curricula, corporate retreats, therapeutic pro-
grams, environmental policymaking, and the art world.
The more time we spend using the filters to augment
our senses, the more empathy we develop for the natural
world, seeing nature as it sees itself. These experiences
make us more life-centric, motivating us to nurture and
protect our planet.

News & Information
Spatial Displays
Spatial displays offer the magic of vir- For now, this technology is aimed at de- • Sony
Holographic displays tual reality without having to strap on signers, architects, and marketers. But as • Intel
allow content creators a head-mounted display. Instead, a flat spatial displays improve and mature, they
screen projects objects in what looks will change how we watch movies, test • Unity
to see their digital • Unreal Engine
like a hyper-realistic, three-dimensional drive vehicles, and attend board meetings.
designs in physical diorama. Spatial displays use high-speed Doctors will show their patients what’s
space. face and eye-tracking cameras to always going on inside their bodies, and history
detect the position of the viewer’s eyes in teachers will take students on tours of
real time. A video generation algorithm ancient ruins.
responds to the viewer’s eyes, while tiny
lenses deliver stereoscopic images to
each eye. Sony’s Spatial Reality Display
debuted last fall with a dedicated software
development kit supporting Unity and
Unreal Engine 4.
Sony’s Spatial Reality Display follows eye move-
ment down to the millisecond.

News & Information
New Realities Trends
360° Video their perspective and view the full scope For example, if you’re watching an action ises to create a new paradigm for AR and
of their surroundings from a fixed point, film on your phone and you turn your VR that is more inclusive and immediate-
360-degree video is created with a special
volumetric video allows viewers to pivot back to it, an explosion in the film would ly available.
camera rig designed to capture omni-
directional footage. Once the video is around their subject viewing it with then be heard from behind you, rather
rendered, viewers can rotate their point depth, and from all angles. Microsoft’s than before you. Similarly, when you The Metaverse
of view using a mouse, touch-screen, or Mixed Reality Capture Studios are an in- move the phone but keep your head still,
ternational network of certified facilities the auditory perspective shifts with the A term originally coined by Neal Ste-
motion-control gesture to explore the phenson in his iconic 1992 sci-fi novel
recorded scene. The format offers a more for capturing volumetric video intended positioning of the device. This technology
for MR applications. Once smart eye- will be central to creating lifelike sensory “Snow Crash,” the metaverse refers to an
immersive and active viewing experi- all-encompassing shared virtual realm.
ence for entertainment, documentary, wear is the norm, we will come to expect experiences in XR.
content to be experienced volumetrically, While definitions vary, and some have
and news than traditional video, but one strayed from the novel’s depiction of the
that can still be viewed through standard rather than the flat perspective offered by WebAR/WebVR
smartphone, tablet, and desktop screens. concept, today the metaverse is often de-
mediums like laptop and mobile device The majority of AR and VR experiences scribed as persistent—meaning its collec-
screens. It is a relatively simple and low- available today require users to download tive network of 3D virtual spaces cannot
cost alternative to the total immersion of Spatial Audio an app to their device, but WebAR and be turned on or off, but exists continu-
more advanced forms of virtual reality. Just like volumetric video gives perspec- WebVR are part of a burgeoning field ously—and shared—meaning various us-
tive and depth to visual content, spatial in which AR and VR experiences are ac- ers can access it freely and interact within
Volumetric Video audio is broadcast in such a way that the cessible directly through a browser. This it. By most definitions, the metaverse
listener interprets the sounds as occupy- successfully sidesteps the data storage encompasses all AR, virtual realms, and
A pivotal technology for developing
ing various spaces in their environment. limits and device compatibility issues that the internet. While the concept can be
XR experiences, volumetric video is the
The latest editions of Apple’s AirPods might hinder an app-based experience, difficult to grasp at the moment, it is like-
capture of a space, figure, or event in 3D.
Australia-based Imagine Room operates the feature spatial audio technology—when effectively helping the AR or VR content ly to come into clearer focus as AR and
The resulting video can then be viewed
country’s first Mixed Reality Capture Studio. it is activated, sounds are perceived in re- reach a broader audience more efficiently. VR platforms proliferate, and virtuality
either on a screen or XR device. While
lation to the listener’s positioning as well The field is still in its infancy, but prom- becomes a regular, if not constant, part of
360-degree video allows viewers to rotate
as the positioning of the source device. our everyday lives.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
The Future of Live new type of hybrid entertainment

will combine the best of in-person
Entertainment live events, broadcast, interactive
digital media, and real-time game
environments.
Corey Johnson
Technology in events and
CEO/Partner, live entertainment
ProductionClub For the past decade, digital tech-
nologies have had a growing influ-
ence on the live music and enter-
Live music and entertainment will tainment industries. Technologies
never be the same. Where less such as XR (extended reality), AR
than two years ago live-streaming (augmented reality), and VR (virtual
and virtual events were the odd reality) have been developed and
stepchild of the live events indus- touted as revolutionary. Low-cost,
try, this segment not only became low-power LEDs have transformed
relevant but entirely supplanted lighting technology and the avail-
the traditional live event and en- ability of higher-quality, higher-res-
tertainment industries in 2020. The olution displays have cemented the
pandemic triggered a rapid shift of role of video and visuals as an es-
focus, the creation of new business sential part of the live experience.
paradigms, and a series of innova- Further, real-time game engines
tions that will revolutionize events such as Unreal and Unity have
and create an entirely new type of gone from the realm of experimen-
live experience in the future. This tation and innovation into founda-

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
tional building blocks and tools for gather and had entirely replaced So what will events of the future
creating the live environment. live concerts, conferences, and en- look like? No one knows exactly,
tertainment worldwide. Twitch, for but the virtual event genie is not
So what will events of However, until recently the appli-
example, was regarded as a fringe going back in the bottle. What was
the future look like? No cations of these new technologies
streaming platform where gamers once an after-thought is now the
has been primarily in support of
one knows exactly, but the in-person, physical live event
could gather and watch each other focus of an entire industry. This
play. Discord was the same, exist- year, 2021, will be full of innovation.
the virtual event genie experience. Technology has been
ing as a communication tool for It will include new companies and
used to create video elements, add
is not going back in the spectacle and visual intrigue, or
small communities. Even the top platforms that have not previously
enterprise players such as Zoom existed, next-generation XR perfor-
bottle. more deeply embed brands and
or Skype were primarily viewed mances and awards shows such
advertisers into the event. All of this
as business tools, certainly not as as MTV’s VMA Awards, and new
changed in 2020. COVID-19 not
technology platforms replacing initiatives from incumbents, such as
only made in-person live events
any and all group gathering and Sony, which is building an in-house
challenging, but impossible to be
socialization at global scale. studio dedicated solely to creating
done safely and at any viable eco-
these immersive at-home experi-
nomic scale. As such, live streaming Now in 2021, the industry still finds
ences. With Travis Scott’s Fortnite
and virtual event platforms went itself contending with significant
performance live-streamed to
from the periphery to the center of uncertainty. Festivals such as
more than 12 million simultaneous
the action. Coachella have been canceled
users and an entire generation of
for the second year in a row, in-
At the start of 2020, live-streaming youth spending their social time in
dustry giant Live Nation’s revenue
and virtual event platforms were Roblox—which is valued at $30 bil-
dropped 95%, and the timeline and
more-or-less irrelevant as far as lion with 150 million monthly active
comeback of concerts is unknown
the public was concerned, but by users—the forthcoming shifts in the
and will be dictated by the success
mid-year they were the only way to industry look to be tectonic in scale.
(or failure) of vaccines.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Looking forward the metaverse as depicted in sci- **

At Production Club, we believe that ence fiction like “Snow Crash” and
“Ready Player One,” it is clear that Corey Johnson leads Production
It is clear that the future is not about whether
technology’s impact on live events Club’s overall direction and focus,
events will be physical or virtual. It
technology’s impact is highly likely that the innovation and entertainment is still in a na- working across the creative and
production spectra.
on live events and will occur simultaneously in both scent phase. There is much more to
physical and virtual mediums. come.
entertainment is still in
Covid has reinforced and solidified
a nascent phase. There We are calling these hybrids “Col-
the fact that humans have a fun-
lective Experiences.” This new type
is much more to come. of event will happen all at once in damental and irreplaceable desire
physical venues, on web-based to gather, communicate, socialize,
interactive live-streams, and on and be entertained in groups large
virtual avatar-based game plat- and small. In the coming years,
forms. These events will not be technology must be developed to
constrained by physical location or support, enhance, and accelerate
time in the same way that events collective experiences by offering
were prior to 2020. Technology will more quality, diversity, and ac-
continue to accelerate and em- cessible live entertainment for all.
power this transformation with a Ultimately it’s not about the tech-
far greater emphasis on the virtual nology itself but how it is utilized to
medium, as audiences wake up bring us together that matters.
to its possibilities, efficiency, and
offerings. Further, as gaming and
tech companies explore ideas like

Synthetic Media
& Content
News & Information
2ND YEAR ON THE LIST
Synthetic Media and Content

Synthetic media is created using artificial Watch for synthetic media to appear • Samsung Next
Synthetic media con- intelligence. Algorithms use an initial set more frequently in 2021, representing • Loudly
sists of algorithmically of data to learn—people, voices, pho- new opportunities and risks for busi-
tos, objects, motions, videos, text, and nesses, and reshaping the entertainment, • Endel
generated digital con- other types of media. The end result is • Replica Studios
service, and communications landscape.
tent, including audio, realistic-looking and realistic-sounding
• Lovo
artificial digital content. Voice clones,
video, deepfakes, virtual voice skins, unique gestures, photos, • Modulate
characters and environ- and interactive bots are all part of the
ecosystem. Synthetic media can be used • Rephrase.ai
ments, and more. The for practical reasons, such as generating • Synthesia
technology will become characters in animated movies or act-
ing as a stand-in for live action movies. • Alethea.ai
an integral aspect of Synthetic media can automate dubbing in • Carv3d
future XR experiences. foreign languages on video chats and fill
in the blanks when video call frames are • Animatico
dropped because of low bandwidth issues. • Narrativa
Imagine an entirely new genre of soap
• DeepNatural
opera, where AI systems learn from your
digital behavior, biometrics, and personal • Baidu Research
data, and use details from your personal
life for the storylines of synthetic charac-
ters. In an ultimate expression of a “reality
Chinese virtual influencer Ling debuted in May 2020.
show,” synthetic characters would play to
an audience of exactly one: you.

News & Information
Synthetic Media Technologies
Speech Synthesis ble Ai, and DeepZen synthesize voices for YouTube videos and TV shows such as what sound is generated when a wooden
a host of purposes. For example, you can “The Office” and “Desperate Housewives,” drumstick taps a couch, a pile of leaves,
Also known as “synthetic speech” or “text-
fake a conversation between yourself and a computer system can now predict or a glass windowpane. The focus of this
to-speech technology,” speech synthesis
your favorite celebrity, provided there are whether two people are likely to hug, research is to help systems understand
mimics real human voices and deploys
enough publicly available audio files of kiss, shake hands, or slap a high five. This how objects interact with each other in
them to various interfaces. With enough
that celebrity to build a dataset. Soon, the research will someday enable robots to the physical realm.
data and training, a speech synthesis
system can learn the spectral frequency technology will be able to match and rap- more easily navigate human environ-
of anyone’s voice and produce someone’s idly deploy synthetic voices personalized ments—and to interact with humans by Mapped Synthetic Environments
digital voiceprint. One company, Syn- for every consumer. If you loved “Daria” taking cues from our body language. It
as a kid, you might hear Daria Morgen- could also be used in retail environments, Companies are now mapping the real
thesia, uses this technology to dub people world to generate synthetic digital twins.
through automated facial reanimation. dorffer’s voice (or Jane Lane’s) during a while we’re operating machinery or while
car commercial, while your spouse might we’re in classrooms learning. Amazon has been studying Snohomish
This will be especially useful for movies County in Washington, building realistic
with wide, international releases. Actors’ instead hear Phil and Lil’s mom from
“Rugrats.” We should remember that simulations of the region’s roads, build-
facial expressions and mouths can be Generative Algorithms for Voice, ings, and traffic. Its maps are reported
reformatted to ensure local languages are in this era of misinformation, synthetic
Sound, and Video to be accurate down to the centimeter,
synchronized correctly. voices might also be used to trick unwit-
ting consumers. A team at University of California, Berke- precisely tracking subtle gradients in
ley, created software that can transfer the pavement and noting unique markings
Modulating Custom Voices movements of one person in a video to on sidewalks. Amazon fused maps and
Deep Behaviors and Predictive 3D data to build synthetic versions of
Generative algorithms are creating syn- someone in another video automatically
Machine Vision using a generative adversarial network. the county to test delivery drones. These
thetic voices that sound just like the orig-
Researchers at MIT’s Computer Science For some time, we’ve been training kinds of virtual environments will be
inal, and those voices can be modulated
and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory computers to watch videos and predict necessary as the company moves drones
to the exact pitch and tone desired. The
(CSAIL) trained computers to not only corresponding sounds in our physical from research labs into the mainstream.
The 2021 Super Bowl aired a commercial featur- AI learns over time to recognize not only
ing a synthesized Vince Lombardi. recognize what’s in a video but to predict world. For example, researchers at MIT’s Amazon tested its Scout delivery robot
intonation, but also emotional cadences.
what humans will do next. Trained on CSAIL experimented to learn wheth- in the real world, having trained it in the
Replica Studios, Lovo, Voicemod, Resem-
er a computer could accurately predict synthetic environment.

News & Information
Synthetic Media and Society
Live Portraits She is a model for brands like Prada and of the press.) While Bermuda and Blawko encourage team members or how to fire
Calvin Klein, a musician with popu- aren’t programmable yet, China’s AI news someone with empathy and compassion.
In a new application of synthetic me-
lar tracks on Spotify, and a paid brand anchors are. China’s state news agency Canadian startup TwentyBN built a syn-
dia, Israeli startup D-ID used its face
ambassador for enormous, global compa- Xinhua employs AI news anchors Xin thetic sales associate to cheerfully interact
recognition technology to generate live
nies like Samsung. And she has friends: Xiaomeng, Qui Hao, and Xin Xiaohao, with customers—and convince them to
portraits from old photos. Members of
Bermuda, a rule-breaking bad girl model/ who appear in videos and also write spend more money.
MyHeritage, a genealogy platform, could
upload old family photos or animate those influencer and Blawko, a Los Angeles– stories for the agency.
already in the platform’s database. The based guy who likes fast cars and Absolut Synthetic Voice Fraud
result: live portraits, reminiscent of “Har- vodka, and is never without his trade- Simulating Human Experiences
mark face scarf covering his nose and Synthesized media has a known problem
ry Potter.” The technology maps a digital What if you could interact with a simulat- area: It can be used by malicious actors
picture to an AI system that renders mouth. In many ways, these stars are the
antidote to teen stars like Lindsay Lohan ed person to learn from them or practice to mislead people, to trick voice authen-
smiling, blinking, and head movements in management techniques? Would you in- tication systems, and to create forged
a short video. and Shia LeBeouf who, for one reason or
another, stray from their carefully crafted vite a synth to a dinner party? Samsung’s audio recordings. Voice fraud costs U.S.
public images and cause headaches for Technology and Advanced Research Labs businesses with call centers $14 billion
Synth-pop Makes a Comeback their agents, managers, and the brands or (STAR Labs) thinks the answer is yes. It last year alone, according to a study by
projects they represent. Synthetic stars developed Neon, “a computationally cre- call center software maker Pindrop.
Synthetic media will give rise to an
don’t sleep. They don’t eat. They never ated virtual being that looks and behaves Google has been working on a synthetic
entirely new kind of celebrity in the 21st
get tired, even if they’re pushed 24 hours like a real human, with the ability to show speech dataset as part of the ASVspoof
century: synthetic pop stars. It also affords
a day. They don’t drink alcohol or use emotions and intelligence.” Neons aren’t Challenge, which is an open-source,
a host of opportunities to make and save
drugs, would never say anything off-mes- intended as a stand-in for the internet. global initiative designed to help develop
money. Already there are a number of
sage, and their mug shots would never go They were built to hang out with you. countermeasures to fight spoofed speech.
synthetic pop stars with very large fan
viral. (Unless it was planned, of course. U.S.-based startup Talespin built synths Researchers hope that the challenge
Frank is an artificial person from Samsung. bases. Lil Miquela is a sort of Beyonce of
Over the summer, Bermuda posted her in virtual reality to teach people “soft” will lead to more secure synthetic voice
synthetic stars, with 3 million followers
own mugshot on Instagram to “get ahead” management skills, including how to content.
on Instagram as of the start of this year.

News & Information
Synthetic Media and Society
Synthetic Sex Tapes

situations and must decide whether to “Under Pressure” (you know the base ing deepfakes morphed into a makeshift on our connected TVs, in our inboxes,
Natalie Portman, Emma Watson, Taylor shoot synthetic civilians. Where do we line hook: da-da-da---da-da-da-dum) but marketplace. Users were volunteering to and throughout social media. Synthetic
Swift, and Daisy Ridley—smart, talented draw the lines between disclosure and didn’t get permission first. He tried to create deepfake videos of celebrities, co- media can be particularly inflammatory
artists—began “appearing” in adult videos pure fantasy? Parody for laughs and get around copyright law saying that he workers, family members, neighbors, and in the political realm, where both sides of
in late 2018. Convincing short clips were deepfakes for harm? What happens when added a beat between notes (Ice’s version: enemies in exchange for crypto-currency. a polarized public are motivated by social
made using deepfake techniques and soon synthetic content seems so real that the da-da-da...da-da-da-dum, DA---da-da-da- In the near future, marketplaces to com- media algorithms to share and engage
went viral on Reddit. Not too long after, psychological implications are intense --da-da-da-dum) and made it a distinctly mission, buy, and sell synthetic media, as with sensationalized content without nec-
another Reddit user published a mobile and profound? What if someone gener- different song. The case settled out of well as their attributes, will be visible on essarily verifying its authenticity.
application allowing anyone to make ates synthetic environments that mirror court, but it shined a light on how U.S. the dark social web.
their own porn deepfakes. This poses real-world situations and real people? copyright laws were created to protect
a particular problem for public figures, No existing laws or regulations govern the financial—not creative—interests of
because right now there isn’t an easy Truth Decay in an Era of Synthetic
synthetic content, although some people artists. What if someone created a slightly Media
way for the average person to tell what’s suggest adapting current laws, such as altered copy of you for promotional com-
real and what’s fake. Photos and videos those covering libel, defamation, identity mercials? For example, if your likeness In 2021, we expect to see synthetic media
can spread through social networks and fraud, or impersonating a government was edited to include facial hair and a technologies further commercialized and
online without much protection for those official. pair of glasses you don’t have in real life, made widely available. But without the
victimized. In the absence of digital tools and then used without your permission— infrastructure in place to help consumers
to spot fakes, we’re left relying on critical would those details eliminate the legal distinguish between synths and humans,
thinking and common sense. Using Synthetic Media to Get the likelihood of misinformation cam-
Around Copyright Laws requirement for consent?
paigns remains high. Synthetic media
Synthetic Property Rights and In many countries it is illegal to plagiarize could be weaponized by governments,
someone’s original content. You might Synthetic Media Marketplaces activist groups, and individuals, and could
Legal Protections
remember the 1989 pop-rap crossover hit We already got a taste of what our future be treated the same as all other internet
The video game “Call of Duty: Mod- “Ice Ice Baby” by Vanilla Ice. He sampled synth media marketplaces will look like. content, showing up in search results,
ern Warfare” was designed with brutal David Bowie and Queen’s collaboration In 2018. a subreddit dedicated to publish- on our smart speakers as audio content,
realism. Players enter lifelike combat

News &
Information
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
How the News more seamlessly into daily life. It

also means we have to solve prob-
Industry Must lems for users and help them verify
the accuracy of the information
Evolve to Fit into they consume.
Daily Life News + e-commerce

More people are on their devices—
like computers and smartphones—
Ebony Reed
and not just for information con-
New Audiences Chief, sumption, work, and entertainment.
Wall Street Journal A growing number of people—
more than 200 million in the United
States—are shopping and living
online. We need to integrate news
Audiences have developed new
into the experiences and activities
behaviors and habits as a result
that people are already doing. We
of the global pandemic. At the
should consider doing this on our
same time, we are on the cusp
owned and operated platforms.
of a revolutionary opportunity to
This will also involve reassessing
transform news experiences with
the actions we allow audiences to
faster internet speeds through the
take on news platforms.
eventual mass adoption of 5G,
which is still in its early days. These Some innovators and academics,
changes—behavioral, societal, and including me, had proposed that
technical—mean we are better smart homes offered new plat-
positioned to create news that fits

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
forms for journalism. But we’ve trace the provenance of news and is a unique opportunity to bring ate questions and help them solve
found the masses still consume information. Some news compa- audiences into actual news events. challenges they are facing. We can
digital news mainly on computers nies define words and link to previ- How would it have felt to experi- already see what audiences want
and smartphones. While offering ous coverage to offer more trans- ence, in almost real time, all of the to know based on what they search
products for purchase on news parency, but not enough initiatives marches for equality and social for online and by asking them to
sites isn’t a new concept, we now show audiences what to question, justice across the world during tell us. As we think about growing
have a larger base of people who, how to verify information, or how to the summer of 2020? How will the the community around journalism,
as a result of the pandemic, may be track story developments on their masses react when they can regu- how we help people should remain
open to buying or even expecting own. Is it worthwhile to experiment larly experience news, not just read, a core focus. This is also a unique
it. We know that allowing people to with blockchain technology or use listen, or view it? And how will that strength that positions news orga-
take actions on our platforms can traditional docs to help audiences impact our real-time conversations, nizations to have a lasting impact
create a stickier experience and track news stories? Will citizens opinions and lived experiences with audiences. After all, don’t
help reduce audience churn, and who can track changes in news when we can all experience—not you recall the last time someone
we must find ways to continue to begin to trust journalists more? We just watch—certain events in near helped you?
leverage this trend. need to focus on how to empower real time together?
audiences as we create news liter- **
Empowering audiences acy projects. Service journalism
Ebony Reed is New Audiences
News literacy initiatives need to Offering audiences services and
More immersive experiences Chief at the Wall Street Journal,
offer more two-way interaction utility is another way we can con-
a member of the strategy team
with audiences and empower As 5G gains adoption and creates nect with and help them. People
and leading efforts to expand the
them to determine if information is faster and more stable connec- want to know how to write a stand-
Journal’s reach. Prior to joining the
trustworthy, accurate,and from a tions (even if it takes a decade out cover letter, write a resume,
reliable source. This is an essential to fully take hold because users and grow their money. Others may Journal, she was director of inno-
public service. Clear plans and need to upgrade devices), we are want to know how to lose pandem- vation at the Donald W. Reynolds
strategies are needed to show au- already asking how to build more ic pounds. We need to create con- Journalism Institute and an associ-
diences how to use technology to immersive news experiences. This tent answering audiences’ immediate professor at the Missouri School
of Journalism.
News & Information
Cancel Culture and Accountability Politics

“Canceling” can come in many forms: Every day we create a robust, lasting • Electronic Frontier Foundation
Powerful people fre- calling out, deplatforming, censoring, record of our lives thanks to the prolif- • Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)
quently dismiss justified boycotting. It can happen to celebrities, eration of connected devices and cheap
but private figures can get caught up, data storage. As social norms evolve, • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)
protest and credible • Facebook
too. New York resident Amy Cooper, those records will memorialize choices,
accusations as “can- for example, faced criminal charges after messages, and actions that don’t neces- • YouTube
cel culture” to evade being filmed calling 911 to falsely accuse sarily sync with our future selves, or our
• Twitter
and harass a Black man, and she was also future culture, providing ample fodder
consequences for their fired from her investment firm after for character assissination. As a society,
actions. On the other public outcry and viral bad press. Online the question is whether we will let those
hand, certain “cancella- vigilantism is sometimes the only way to who transgress learn from their mistakes:
hold people accountable in a world that What can someone do to repent when
tion” campaigns, waged doesn’t always achieve justice through they do harm? What past acts are irre-
via social platforms but traditional means, but not every call for deemable? And who gets to decide when
sanctions is equal in scope or stakes. atonement is complete? The person or
with real-world reper- YouTube personalities have attempted to community who was violated? The trans-
cussions, are misguided cancel each other over personal slights. gressor? Their allies online?
or vindictive attempts to Former President Barack Obama is one
of many voices pushing back against the
discredit or exploit those culture of calling people out online. “The
in the spotlight. world is messy; there are ambiguities,” he
Social media has created supercharged cycles of said last year. “People who do really good
outrage, boycott, and backlash.
stuff have flaws.”

News & Information
Sensory Journalism
The OrCam MyEye, a small camera that Storytelling that integrates with a user’s • OrCam
Wearable devices will clips onto any pair of glasses, is a simple perception could foster empathy and un- • Facebook Project Aria
change everything wearable device that recognizes what it lock new ways to understand the world—
“sees” and describes it to the wearer. It’s but it could also be manipulated to create
we know about user
ideal for helping visually impaired people sensory clickbait. Journalists will need
interaction. Glasses, interact with the world around them, to find new ways to deliver the news, but
headphones, and other such as hearing a menu read aloud. But they must hold tech companies account-
OrCam’s aspirations are much bigger: able as this technology develops. There
wearables will integrate Patent filings describe methods for is essential reporting to be done on how
directly with a user’s “lifelogging”—storing details about what wearable devices will be compatible with
sense of sight, hearing, an individual has done, where they’ve different types of bodies. Will sensory
been, and who they’ve met for recall integration work equally well for people
and touch. Instead of later. Facebook’s Project Aria is building of all genders? People of color? People
The OrCam MyEye has patents that describe
“lifelogging”—storing details about what indi- developing media for a wearable devices and testing them in the with disabilities?
viduals have done, where they’ve been, and who real world with hopes of defining what
they’ve met for recall later. particular screen size, is useful, meaningful, and relevant when
storytellers are going a device integrates with a user’s senses.
to need to optimize for This is a seismic shift for storytellers:
Experiences won’t be constrained by the
individual users’ senses. size of a screen or the shape of a device,
but will be bespoke to each user.

News & Information
Geography Reshapes the Virtual World

The California Consumer Privacy Act CCPA and the other state laws on the • European Union
In the internet’s first two (CCPA) gives Californians the power to horizon will impact ad targeting, but • U.S. Federal Communications
decades, information stop businesses from selling their person- watch for major changes in any business Commission
al information and a GDPR-style right that depends on knowing its consumers,
crossed borders freely.
to have information deleted. Businesses like subscription marketing. Without
Now local, state, and that serve Californians—even if they’re coordinated effort, geographic differences
national governments not based in the state—are required to in rights and expectations will continue to
be compliant as of January. Washington proliferate. This could change the eco-
are creating a complex passed a law strengthening the definition nomics and operating model for compa-
patchwork of regulation of personally identifiable information nies that serve customers across interna-
that assigns internet in the state and shortening the window tional borders (or even across state lines
companies have to notify consumers and in the U.S.). Established tech platforms
users (and their data) the state attorney general after a data and multinational organizations will
different rights in differ- breach. In New York, legislators passed have the scale to account for that kind of
the Stop Hacks and Improve Electronic regulatory complexity, but new entrants
ent places. Data Security Act to increase the types may find it hard to serve—and monetize—
of personal information covered by the audiences in multiple jurisdictions.
state’s data breach reporting law. New
laws will give real meaning to the physical
geography of where a user accesses the
internet, and of where the companies
New York legislators passed laws now governing involved are located.
how content can be published and shared in the
state.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Reality Prescriptions
Near-future pessimistic scenario

The more time we spend in virtual worlds, the more we
lose touch with reality. It’s not our fault. These virtual
worlds are designed to keep us plugged in with strate-
gically timed dopamine hits. Doctors and mental health
experts raise the alarm as they witness the side effects of
digital addictions and overdose symptoms. Too many
people are losing sleep, straining their bodies, and ne-
glecting loved ones. To combat the rising digital addiction
epidemic, health care practitioners begin to prescribe dos-
es of reality. Once recorded in your digital health records,
these reality prescriptions commandeer your devices.
Restricted usage, diminished potency, and even full-on
lockouts limit or prevent your time online. But addictions
are hard to overcome, and some patients resort to contra-
band and DIY devices to get their fix. Reality rehab might
be the only solution, but the digital dope keeps beckoning
addicts away.

News & Information
The End of Attention Metrics

Researchers estimate that more than half As mainstream browsers increasingly • Google Analytics
The attention economy, of web traffic is fake. Fraudulent traffic is block third-party tracking cookies by • Chartbeat
which spawned listicles generated by bots that can fake clicks and default, it will be harder to connect in-
by click farms in which a single user can dividuals to their actions across the web. • Facebook
and tweet roundups, • Interactive Advertising Bureau
interact across scores of devices simulta- Digital marketers and advertisers must
isn’t as easily measured neously. Nevertheless, vast portions of the find new ways to quantify the impact
as previously thought. digital economy are built around quanti- of their work—and to ensure that their
fying how users consume media online. partners trust their metrics.
Measuring how con-
Beyond different ways of counting,
sumers allocate their there’s also outright fraud online.
attention depends on Schemes to manipulate metrics follow the
money: MadHive, a digital TV advertis-
how you count—and ing company, estimates that 20% of video
who is counting. ad requests are fake. This is a serious
problem for both publishers that rely on
ad revenue and for advertisers that need
to satisfy client metrics.
Brand safety and ad fraud protection will be top

advertiser priorities in 2021.

News & Information
Digital Frailty
Digital frailty is evolving from a flaw Sometimes new technology obviates the • Internet Archive
Digital frailty is when into a feature: This trend emerged as old before anyone has had a chance to
convert files or develop archives. The • Amazon Web Services
digital assets are imper- media was erased from the web because
Internet Archive and others try to create
old sites were no longer maintained. It’s • Microsoft Azure
manent or easily com- snapshots in time, but the services can
• Google Cloud
still problematic when information with struggle with dynamic sites that heavily
promised by technical archival value is lost, but more systems rely on JavaScript. While there’s archival
glitches. are being designed to encode imperma- value to the files we post online, users are
nence as users adapt ephemeral tools like increasingly choosing ephemeral formats
Instagram stories or messages that expire to share via Instagram Stories and Snap.
within a set time frame. There’s also risk How will future societies learn from the
past if they cannot study the first draft
when organizations turn to external tools
of our present history? Do we have an
or services to manage their prominent obligation to preserve the digital con-
programming. Storify was a popular tool versations shaping society? Should we
for aggregating social media posts around be working harder to ensure that digital
a major news event. A team of journalists archives aren’t lost?
working for Reported.ly, a now defunct As we develop expectations for what
experiment run by First Look Media, should be archived, we must consider
won a 2015 Online Journalism Award for the risks of creating an indelible record:
reporting on the shooting at Charlie Heb- What should happen to posts shared by
do magazine in real time. All that report- minors to social networks or student
ing lived on Storify but was lost when the assignments posted to a school’s digital
portal? Do young people have the right
Patrick Soon-Shiong bought the Los Angeles Times platform shut down in 2018.
in 2018. The Wall Street Journal reported that to a blank slate when they reach adult-
Soon-Shiong was trying to sell the company in hood, or should they be held accountable
February 2021. for ideas they try on for size on the way
to maturity?
News & Information
Sensitive Content Warnings

Several companies, including Disney Signposting sensitive content, or remov- • American Association of University
Sensitive content warn- and Dr. Seuss Enterprises, are assessing ing it completely, will continue this year, Professors
ings now appear regu- archival content for representations of sparking controversy and debate about • Modern Language Association
culture, religion, gender, and ethnicity. cancel culture. A cultural shift is under-
larly, as a way signaling • National Coalition Against Censorship
As of February 2021, several Dr. Seuss way in the U.S. that will result in perma-
that the information books, which depict racist imagery will nent changes.
about to be conveyed no longer be published. A 2019 survey of
Seuss’ works found that just 2% of human
may upset or aggravate characters were people of color, they nev-
certain readers, viewer had dialogue, and they were likened to
ers, or listeners. servants or animals. Dr. Seuss Enterprises
said that the books—published in the
1930s to the late 1970s—“portray people
in ways that are hurtful and wrong.” On
the Disney+ streaming service, several
episodes of “The Muppet Show” now
include warnings that episodes contain
Some episodes of “The Muppet Show” now come outdated cultural depictions. Similar dis-
with sensitive content warnings. claimers precede streams of “Lady and the
Tramp,” “The Jungle Book,” “The Aris-
tocats,” “Dumbo,” “Peter Pan,” and “Swiss
Family Robinson.”

News & Information
New Search Interfaces

The line between old-fashioned web- It will be a while before we have a uni- • Trint
Most people still find pages and new forms of content—from versal search agent that crawls through • SpokenLayer
the majority of infor- Instagram chats to Alexa conversations conversations, games, and mixed reality
to mixed reality characters—is blurring. content for the information we seek. • Audioburst
mation they consume • Listen Notes
Companies like Trint help publishers Until then, voice search optimization
through search, and transcribe audio to make it more search- (VSO) will emerge as a way of surfacing • Snap
indexing new content able by traditional crawlers, while other relevant content on spoken interfaces.
startups like Audioburst are trying to use Spatial computing is in its infancy today,
types for wearable and technology to actually “listen” to data pre- but soon consumers might expect to
spoken interfaces is viously locked into a waveform and make be served only stories relevant to what
proving challenging. these units of audio more navigable. Au- they are viewing through smart glasses.
dioburst’s technology ingests and analyzes Searches based on conversation or what
audio and uses natural language process- a user is looking at will be highly contex-
ing to understand its contents, contextu- tual, requiring sophisticated algorithms
alize it, and make it all searchable. to anticipate the intent of a query and the
relevancy of results.
Audioburst wants to be the Google of radio.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
New Horizons in technology, such a proprietary

trend detection tool for identifying
Book Publishing various signals on the internet that
we use to spot talent and to inform
demand-driven book creation.
Maja Thomas Our company, Hachette, has widely
gained expertise by bringing start-
Chief Innovation Officer,
ups in house and learning from
Hachette Livre
them. We’ve welcomed entrepre-
neurs specializing in digital-first
publishing, the creation of board
My team is always asking how the games and mobile games, brain
Hachette Group, an international training applications, and educa-
publisher, can become the most tional games.
innovative provider of reading
and learning. We research how Today, as we look forward in 2021,
new technologies, partnerships, or we identified several strategic pub-
business models could expand our lishing opportunities. One of them:
reach in an increasingly competi- the chance to reach and engage
tive attention economy. younger readers, who have come
to expect some level of interactivity
For most of our proof of concepts, and agency from entertainment
we work with partners large and activities. TikTok, Roblox, and Fort-
small to create new experiences nite has shown how people love to
and test them with readers. Al- shape and share their experiences
ternately, we will build our own with friends and co-creators.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
We’ve harnessed augmented We also strive to connect to read- companions guiding them along as
reality to give readers the ability ers on the platforms they haunt: they learn.
to scan the front and back covers creating chatbots of characters
We’ve harnessed of Orbit science fiction books and on social media platforms, teas-
Many of Hachette imprints have
augmented reality magically animate the covers or ing new book titles on TikTok, or
also created podcasts to promote
books, genres, imprints, and au-
to give readers the unlock a special video in which promoting paid newsletters from
thors. The early enthusiasm around
authors seem to speak directly to authors to their most avid fans who
ability to scan the them. Similarly, our educational opted in to receive exclusive offers.
Clubhouse, the audio chat social
network, shows that the connec-
front and back covers publishers created ways for stu-
We also believe that consumers will tions that can be made using the
dents to manipulate 3D objects in a
of Orbit science textbook, and our travel guide divi-
increasingly adopt the audio interhuman voice are just starting to be
face, and that it is leading the way more fully explored.
fiction books and sions created an augmented reality
to ambient commuting. By adapt-
treasure hunt among monuments
magically animate in Paris that leverages the content
ing books that have already been
We believe that data aggregation
and analysis, as well as AI, will con-
the covers or unlock and expertise usually locked in a
published, we’ve re-imagined sto-
tinue to play a big role in publishing
ries that can work on smart speak-
a special video in book while the consumer is out “in
ers by using voice activations to let
in the near future.
the wild.”
which authors seem a child choose their own adventure, Data is key to understanding who
We’ve incubated startups that offer just by speaking a wish out loud. our readers are and what they
to speak directly to new forms of content creation, enjoy and what they want. Reader
Hodder Studio has created audio
them. such as a collaborative writing analytics, then, has been the focus
originals—also known as active
platform that allowed authors to of many of our efforts. We’ve set up
audiobooks—that encourage
react together to pandemic isola- online communities where we can
listeners to garden or cook as they
tion and provided a writing contest A/B test covers, titles, and descrip-
listen. They’ve published Seeds
for high school students to connect tions, and measure engagement
from Scratch and Breaking Eggs
while they were socially distanced. by time spent reading, completion
for people that want expert audio
rates, and qualitative surveys.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
We’ve designed experiments that GPT-3 has just begun to show us Feminist book box being offered by
analyze visual “heat maps” show- how autogenerated text may be Hachette UK, which curates books
ing where the human eye goes on able to extend story worlds and from across 10 different imprints.
By adapting books covers and marketing materials, allow personalization or customiza-
that have already and data aggregation (and AI) to tion at scale. Although AI and data
As the transformation of our
business and our lives continues,
been published, identify cover trends in upcoming will never replace the creativity of
Hachette will continue to bring
publishing seasons. writers or the expertise of publish-
we’ve re-imagined ers, they can be used as powerful
delightful stories and useful infor-
Even fine-grained data about what mation to people in formats both
stories that can work is in our books is also sometimes
tools by those that understand their
traditional and new.
capabilities.
on smart speakers surprisingly hard to access. That
has led us to create a “tagging As sales continue to move online **
by using voice
factory” in France to enhance and digital formats gain traction, Hachette Livre is an international
activations to let a the metadata around titles, word new platforms will arise to support
publisher with a huge variety of
child choose their clouds extracted from full texts in authors, independent booksellers,
publishing segments, and as the
the U.S., and book recommenda- and publishers—and to entice new
own adventure, just tions created using “verbal DNA” readers.
director of the Hachette Innovation
Program Maja Thomas works to
by speaking a wish patterns in books.
All-you-can-eat subscription mod- accelerate the company’s digi-
out loud. We should soon be able to use AI to els, we think, make no sense for tal transformation by testing and
alert a publicity team to focus on books—a long format with deep applying experimental concepts,
a book from Hachette’s enormous engagement and commitment that prototyping new solutions, and
backlist that is newly relevant due isn’t usually bingeable. However,
spreading a culture of innovation.
to a news event. expert curation, early access, and
exclusive content can distinguish
In the future, artificial intelligence
subscription services offered by
will push publishing to evolve even
publishers. One example is the
further.

News & Information
Journalism-as-a-service
“Journalism as a service” lets news The practice of journalism is more than • PRX
On the fringes, news or- organizations sell on-demand access the published report: The best reporters • The Information
ganizations are begin- to the components of their reporting, create an enormous corpus of data as they
rather than just the finished product. work. Finding ways to realize additional • MIT Media Lab
ning to provide journal- • ProPublica
The clearest example to date comes from value from that work could benefit every-
ism as a service, rather ProPublica, which launched a platform one working in the knowledge econ- • The Markup
than as traditional news for selling data. Journalists compiled and omy—universities, legal startups, data
• Rolling Stone
processed the records for their reporting, science companies, businesses, hospitals,
products. This model but the information has uses in oth- and even tech giants. Because journalists
could help develop new er domains. The Markup, a nonprofit are trained to seek out information that
funding streams for journalism outlet reporting on the tech challenges their assumptions, the datasets
industry, has concentrated on building they assemble might help correct for the
cash strapped media tools like Blacklight, which lets users see bias that exists in machine learning today.
companies—but with- how websites track them, and Simple News deployed as a service includes
Search, which shows how paid advertise- different kinds of artifacts: news stories;
out care, it could also ments influence Google search results. APIs; databases; calendar plug-ins for
erode trust in an organi- While those tools are distributed for free, upcoming news events; systems that can
zation’s core reporting. they show how journalism could re-ori- automatically generate reports using the
ent toward product development. In news org’s archives, and more. As those
January, Rolling Stone showed how this tools are transferred from the newsroom
trend might go wrong, announcing that it to the business side, however, there is
In January, Rolling Stone announced that it would would let “thought leaders” pay $2,000 for the risk that journalistic ethics are lost,
let “thought leaders” pay $2,000 for the privilege
the privilege of writing for the magazine’s threatening to tarnish an entire organiza-
of writing for the magazine’s website.
website. tion’s reputation.

News & Information
One-to-Few Networks
Online publishing platform Substack It’s easier than ever for influencers to get • Substack
Technology is lowering lured big names like tech journalist Casey paid for their work—and there’s growing • OnlyFans
the barrier for creators Newton and political columnists Matt evidence that consumers will pay creators
Taibbi and Andrew Sullivan away from directly. Services like Substack and Revue • Twitch
to build a direct connec- • Zello
traditional gigs last year. Substack also offer tools to launch a subscription news-
tion to their audience. gave Glenn Greenwald an outlet when he letter, and Twitch can turn a video game • Patreon
Low-cost tools to pro- quit The Intercept, the national security habit into a streaming video business.
journalism outlet he helped build, in an These platforms are also broadening the
duce newsletters, pod- act of anti-censorship protest. (According definition of what influencers can get
casts, and niche experi- to his editors, he was trying to publish paid for: Patreon has been used to fund
ences allow individuals without evidence.) Greenwald has the community organizing and anti-racism
name recognition to thrive on Substack, projects, while OnlyFans enables creators
to create personal me- but he has a track record of grandiose to monetize their influence through soft-
dia brands. One-to-few claims, and is now free to publish without core pornography. Some streamers can
oversight. Not all niche networks are make a meaningful income, but only by
networks, however, can high-tech: Last year, Wired reported on streaming nearly constantly throughout
be a powerful vector anti-vax propaganda spreading through- the day, without any time off. Unless the
for disinformation and out insular ultra-Orthodox Jewish com- influencer economy evolves to provide
munities in Brooklyn via conference calls. paid time off or other benefits, it will be
misinformation because WhatsApp encountered a similar prob- hard for creators to participate in a sus-
they lack the editorial lem in 2018, when rumors about child tainable manner. Ultimately, all informal
OnlyFans expanded the range of monetization kidnapping spread quickly across rural networks satisfy a basic human need to
for influencers, letting them profit from exclusive safeguards that protect India leading to a series of mob lynchings, connect, but they can also isolate niche
experiences and other offerings.
traditional media. and more recently with the spread of communities by amplifying unverified
COVID-19 misinformation. ideas within the group.
News & Information
Media Consolidation
Media consolidation is coming for digital The U.S. Federal Communications • Vox Media
Consolidation continues upstarts. After several years of increasing Commission’s policy of deregulation • BuzzFeed
as media companies try consolidation among legacy publishers, under Chair Ajit Pai accelerated the
2020 saw a handful of landmark deals pace—and benefits—of consolidation for • Chatham Asset Management
to overcome shrinking • Alden Global Capital
in news media. BuzzFeed and HuffPost legacy companies. But Pai left the FCC
margins on ad-support- merged in November, bringing together on January 20, 2021, and President Joe • Sinclair Broadcast Group
ed media. This trend two of the biggest names in digital pub- Biden will appoint a Democratic majority
• Center for Innovation and Sustainabil-
lishing. Like similar deals in legacy media, to the panel. Watch for major swings on
is now spreading from the tie-up aimed to generate efficiencies key regulations like net neutrality, and for ity In Local Media at the University of
legacy media giants and a bigger scale for selling advertis- disruptions to news coverage in regions North Carolina, Chapel Hill
to digital upstarts that ing. The concentration of legacy news with recently consolidated newspapers.
publishers continued as McClatchy, a Because nearly every major newspaper
need to justify years-old 163-year-old newspaper chain, emerged chain in the United States has seen some
investments that fueled from bankruptcy under the ownership of consolidation in the last year, this trend
hedge fund Chatham Asset Management, will likely impact your region if you live
their growth. Concen- which owns one of Canada’s largest news- in the U.S.
tration of ownership paper companies as well as the publisher
into the hands of a small of The National Enquirer. Chatham beat
out Alden Global Capital, another hedge
group of conglomer- fund. Both funds have a track record for
ates threatens diversity cutbacks at the newspapers they own—one
Chatham Asset Management, a hedge fund with of the reasons that media consolidation
extensive publishing interests, acquired newspa- in the press and on the is generally associated with weaker local
per chain McClatchy out of bankruptcy.
airwaves. news coverage.

News & Information
I-Teams for Algorithms and Data

The Markup, a news website focused News organizations need reporters who • The Markup
The best journalism on the societal impacts of big tech and can work collaboratively in teams with • Bellingcat
reveals hidden truths algorithms, began publishing in 2020. diverse skills, from explaining technical
The startup distinguished itself with pub- concepts and reverse engineering code • Washington Post computational
and keeps those in journalism team
lishing tools like Blacklight, a real-time to developing sources and processing
power accountable to privacy inspector, and Simple Search, a geospatial information. As technology • New York Times visual
the public. Increasingly, browser add-on that removes sponsored advances, it is harder for laypeople to investigations team
search results. Like the Online Political understand how systems function—even
that means unpacking Ads Transparency Project, a New York as those systems become more deeply
• Tow Center for Digital Journalism
at Columbia University
how algorithms and big University initiative that aims to expose embedded in the fabric of our society.
how political Facebook ads targeted Understanding where information comes • Computational Journalism Lab
data shape our world. at Northwestern University
different users, The Markup’s tools are from, how it spreads, and the impact it
News organizations meant to make it easier for laypeople to has—not to mention explaining the out- • Online Political Ads Transparency
need specialized re- see how they are tracked and targeted comes of algorithmic decision-making— Project at New York University
online. The New York Times Visual are central responsibilities for journalists
porters with the techni- Investigations unit made a splash in Jan- who wish to hold powerful systems
The Markup built a browser extension called
Simple Search that helps users differentiate
cal skills to understand uary 2020, using crowdsourced video to accountable. Investigating algorithms
between “traditional” search results and ads or how technology oper- re-create the exact moment that an Irani- has never been more important than it
other results. an missile shot down a Ukranian airplane. is now.
ates in the world, and to That report required fusing multiple
explain it to a nontech- disciplines to synthesize a conclusion that
undercut the Iranian Air Force’s original
nical audience. narrative about what had happened.

News & Information
The Subscription Economy Matures

Whether it’s subscriptions, member- Every subscription business has a broad • Fortnite
A proliferation of con- ships, or donations, we’re living in the set of competitors. Local newspapers, for • Roblox
tent competes for audi- age of audience revenue. But the sub- example, aren’t just competing against
scription economy is bigger than news The Washington Post and The New York • The Membership Puzzle Project
ences’ time and money, paywalls, streaming video services, and • Scroll
Times—they’re competing for time and
opening new opportu- direct-to-consumer offerings: Soon,
share of wallet with every other audi-
more consumers will be asked to pay
nities for media compa- for virtual fashion, XR experiences, and ence-funded business. To track the future
gaming. Software-as-a-service companies of subscriptions, watch gaming platforms
nies while also risking like Fortnite, which is free but boasts
like Piano and Pelcro make launching a
that the abundance of subscription or membership program an ecosystem of in-game purchases that
subscription options relatively easy. Keeping subscribers is successfully entices users to spend—how
harder: Subscription service platform many news subscriptions can honestly say
could overwhelm con- Zuora reports that media businesses have the same? The growth of the subscription
sumers’ willingness (or an average annualized churn rate of near- economy also raises important questions
ly 34%, the highest of any sector studied, around access and equity. As Heather
ability) to pay. Without and on-demand streaming services face Bryant, a respected journalist, observed on
entrepreneurial thinking even higher rates of subscriber loss than
Twitter during the U.S. presidential elec-
news media, according to The Informa-
and business model in- tion: “Arguably one of the most critical
tion. Meanwhile we’re living through the
first major recession since the launch of events in the modern history of this coun-
novation, news organi- try is happening with the election right
most digital subscription programs, with
zations may not keep up consumer spending on “other services” now and most of the contextual analysis
Video games like Fortnite create an ecosystem of
such as subscriptions dropping 17% in the is behind registration boxes and paywalls
rewards that entices users to spend. with emerging media. while all the misinformation and conspir-
second quarter of 2020, and remaining far
below pre-pandemic levels into 2021. acies are a free, easily accessed buffet.”

News & Information
Trust in Media
A healthy dose of skepticism makes for a Edelman’s annual trust barometer re- • Google
The spread of misinfor- strong electorate. But deepfakes, inten- vealed a sobering reality in America: for • Facebook
mation will continue un- tionally misleading stories, and salacious the first time, trust in traditional media
content posted by political operatives, dropped below 50%. Trust in social • Twitter
til platforms and news
hackers, and foreign governments have media hit an all-time low of 27%. The
organizations adopt led to increased calls for new methods to study found that 58% of Americans think
norms and standards rebuild our trust in the media. In Febru- that “most news organizations are more
ary 2021, Twitter said that it would apply concerned with supporting an ideology
for accountability and labels to tweets containing misleading or political position than with informing
trust. information about COVID-19 vaccines, the public.” When Edelman re-polled
and while Facebook said that it would Americans after the 2021 inauguration of
ban vaccine misinformation, the platform President Biden, the numbers had deteri-
struggled to manage a deluge of fake orated further: only 18% of Republicans
health data and conspiracy theories. said that they trust traditional media. As
platforms come under increased scrutiny
this year for issues related to antitrust, we
expect to see demands for transparency
and traceability.
Trust in media is at an all time low.

News & Information
The First Amendment in a Digital Age

Constitutional law often lags behind This year, First Amendment rights and • American Civil Liberties Union
The First Amendment technology, taking time to adapt and protections from Section 230 of the Com- • Electronic Frontier Foundation
shapes how platforms evolve as historic concepts are applied to munications Decency Act will be debated,
new situations. In the past year, plat- though we may not see any concrete • U.S. Federal Communications
and publishers think Commission
forms have removed individual posts decisions. Brands, news organizations,
about the design, and in some cases deleted the accounts political movements, and big tech compa- • Knight First Amendment
development, and of people posting hate speech, intention- nies will continue to face challenges. Institute at Columbia University
ally misleading information, or calls for
implications of con- violent attacks. In 2021, Amazon Web
tent distribution. First Services removed far-right social net-
Amendment legal pro- work Parler from the cloud in the wake
of the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Social
tections are broad in media sites aren’t modern-day public
scope but limited in ge- squares: Tech companies set the rules
and shut off megaphones. While the First
ography; they only ap- Amendment’s protections in the U.S. are
ply in the United States. generally broad, its scope is limited in an
interconnected world.
Federal courts are divided on how the First

Amendment applies to social media.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
AutoINcorrecting History
Near-future catastrophic scenario

We marvel at how simplistic the deepfakes of 2021 were.
What began as a curiosity to see our ancestors move
and speak quickly morphed into a new breed of decep-
tive technology designed to cancel cancel culture. We’ve
resurrected people and put words in their mouths, edited
their personalities, our relationships with them, and ulti-
mately clouded our memories of the lives they lived. We
are told that politicians caused great harm—but now, we
can’t remember what it was, or why people were so mad
at the time. With their digital extensions scrubbed, they
all seem like rational, likable people.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Application
The multiverse, along with shifts in Synthetic media and content can be Synthetic media can be additive to the We are entering a new, and very compli-
content distribution, will eventually used for new product ideation, to test traditional R&D process. Teams making cated, field of intellectual property law.
affect an organization’s reputation, its designs, and to help anticipate what’s use of digital twins, experimental digi- This leads to thorny questions about an
messaging, and some of the regulatory on the horizon. Given the complexity of tal extensions, and other forms of new organization’s legal rights to the content
protections under which it operates. new media technologies, chief innova- media can accelerate vital research, es- it builds and licenses. Chief risk officers
Chief strategy officers should engage tion officers must consider alternative pecially in urban planning, mobility, and should explore dimensions of intellec-
more closely with others in the C-suite, uses of what their teams develop: Once health-related fields. For those working tual property in an age of augmented
especially chief technology officers, a product hits the marketplace, it could in creative industries, a transformation media. There are longer-range implica-
chief marketing officers, and chief be used to spread misinformation or is underway, which will unlock new busi- tions to consider, including brand safety
innovation officers to develop a lon- cause harm. ness opportunities and shape the future and consumer trust.
ger-term strategy and vision for the of media and entertainment.
organization.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information

begin by asking these questions:
1 2 3
How will new media What aspects of our How will our employees
?
technologies improve our business could be and customers find
operations? disrupted by synthetic information in the
media or shifting news future?
Our manufacturing
models?
processes? How might new
Are we adequately paradigms be used
Our product lines?
planning for the longer to our organization’s
term? advantage, or to our
detriment?
What assumptions must
strategy to succeed?

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Selected Sources
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/docu-
ment/7344759
https://www.propublica.org/datastore/
https://www.motherjones.com/me-
dia/2020/03/whatsapp-coronavi-
rus-misinformation/
https://www.cjr.org/special_report/sub-
stackerati.php
https://www.poynter.org/locally/2020/
hedge-fund-chatham-asset-manage-
ment-buy-the-mcclatchy-newspaper-
chain/
https://www.bellingcat.com/
https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/
now-transparent-political-advertis-
ing-facebook-instagram
https://themarkup.org/google-the-gi-
ant/2020/11/10/introducing-sim-
ple-search
https://themarkup.org/blacklight
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/
mixed-reality/capture-studios

Volume 4 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Work
Report Culture
Strategic trends that will influence business, Play
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Work, Culture and Play
166 Summary 189 Protecting Little Gamers

168 Work 190 Digital Addiction
168 The New Hybrid Workweek 191 Scenario: Digital Drugs
169 Home Offices Introduce 192 Application
New Cybersecurity Risks 193 Key Questions
170 Apps Shaping the 194 Sources
Virtual Workspace
171 Scenario: Managed Meetings
173 Culture
173 Digital Fashion
174 Upcycled and Circular Fashion
175 Digital Makeup
176 Scenario: Extreme Sunscreen
177 Vices
178 Neuroenhancers
178 Nutrigenomics
178 Nootropics
178 Grinder Biohacking
178 CBD-Infused Products
179 CBD-Infused Drinks
179 Cannabis Supply Chains
179 Cannabis Compliance Systems
179 Specialized Cannabis
CRM Platforms
179 Banking for Cannabis Dispensaries
179 Vaping and E-cigarettes
181 Play
181 eSports
183 eSports Training Academies
184 Gaming Subscription Wars
185 Infinite Gameplay
186 Sports Tech
187 Connected Toys
188 Kids Fitness Games and Toys
+ A tech exodus from Silicon Valley + Celebrity makeup artists are
Work
has redistributed a highly-skilled selling AR filters to use in place of
workforce to other parts of the U.S. traditional makeup in video con-
ferences and social media posts.
+ Companies are rethinking long-
term investments in office space. + As the eSports ecosystem grows,
new academies are launching to
+ 69% of companies will reduce their recruit and train prospective pro-
Culture
real estate footprint because of fessional players and coaches.
COVID-19.
+ E-doping is already an issue in
+ The global pandemic condensed professional eSports leagues,
a decade of digital transformation where Adderall and Ritalin are
into a few months. banned substances and using a
cheat-code can get you banned
& Play
+ Black tech professionals are paid, for life.
on average, $10,000 less than their
white colleagues. + As genome sequencing becomes
more affordable, some biohack-
+ Newly-remote workforces rely on ers are using DNA results to nutri-
video conferencing systems, mes- tionally manipulate their bodies.
Summary
saging platforms, networks and
home routers that aren’t necessar- + From neuroenhancers to sextech,
ily secure. the market for digital and high-
tech vices is growing.
+ Virtual luxury fashion moves from
fringe to mainstream in 2021.
Affordable digital clothing will be
available this year.

Work
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Work, Culture and Play Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
The New Hybrid Workweek

Work routines have shifted dramatically Participating companies are likely to hold • The Society for Human Resource
When the COVID-19 in the last year, creating new norms and less commercial real estate, and revamp Management (SHRM)
pandemic displaced of- accelerating change, with effects expect- remaining floor plans to accommodate • The MIT Center for WorkLife
ed to endure long after the pandemic lower headcounts and hybrid meetings
fice workforces around and WellBeing
has subsided. Companies like Facebook, between in-person and remote workers.
the world, managers Twitter, Square, Shopify and Slack have The hope is that allowing workers more • Occupational Safety and
Health Administration
and employees had to already pledged to allow employees to flexibility will improve their quality of
work remotely even after lockdowns and life and mental health, and thus their
rethink how, where, and social distancing restrictions are lifted, productivity, however most companies
when they could carry paving the way for hybrid virtual and experimenting with these new models do
out the responsibilities in-person workforces at scale. Google is not have data with which to conclusively
exploring a model wherein workers work support that conclusion, and the opposite
of their job. Having now three days a week in the office, and the could prove true. The changes could also
adapted to remote work other two remotely, either working from blur lines between full-time, part-time,
and new digital tools,

home (WFH) or working from anywhere and contract employees, and potentially Office centricity
(WFA). It is also important to note that infringe upon workers’ rights. Companies
the question remains: these changes primarily affect white collar will also have to make important deci-
is over.
Will things ever return to industries—most manual laborers, service sions about what remote work platforms
— Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke
With offices unlikely to ever return to their industry workers and others do not have and applications to use, as they will likely
pre-pandemic capacity, floor plans will be re- business as usual? the luxury of working remote. play a far greater role within the organi-
worked to accommodate hybrid in-person and
remote meetings. zation as the hybrid workweek becomes
standard.

Home Offices Introduce New Cybersecurity Risks

The sudden unexpected shift to remote Companies that were left scrambling to • Chubb
As employees became workforces opened wide gaps in cyber- adapt to pandemic-related workforce • Norton 360
accustomed to working security for companies around the globe. shifts may not have properly addressed
Soon after the pandemic sent workers new cybersecurity vulnerabilities. As • Malwarebytes
from their own living • Wyse
home indefinitely, reports emerged that remote work becomes more widely and
spaces over the past Zoom, which had quickly become the go- regularly practiced, it’s time for CISOs to
year, CISOs raised con- to video conferencing app for countless shore up security measures for off-site
remote teams, had serious security flaws. employees. Reinforcing cybersecuri-
cerns that insecure and From unauthorized users “Zoom-bomb- ty best practices, requiring two-factor
unmonitored home net- ing” calls, to questionable encryption, authentication, installing anti-malware
works could expose the to claims that the company was selling software on all machines, increasing
user data, the app was unreliable enough privacy settings on home WiFi networks,
company’s proprietary to raise red flags for cybersecurity ex- and even scanning video backdrops for
data, trade secrets, vid- perts, even leading one computer science any exploitable information are some
eo conversations and
professor to declare that “Zoom is mal- straightforward ways to mitigate risk. Zoom is malware.
ware.” Another issue is that housebound Another option is to invest in cyber liabil-
more to malicious hack- employees were much more likely to use ity insurance. Any companies that handle — Princeton computer science
personal devices not vetted by corporate highly sensitive or classified materials professor Arvind Narayanan
ers or industry rivals.
cybersecurity officials to access work should consider sending technicians to se-
documents and correspondence, leaving cure the domestic working environments
these potentially sensitive assets vulner- of all employees with security clearances.
Two-factor authentication (TFA) should be stan- able to theft. According to a study by Failure to address these vulnerabilities
dard practice for workforces accessing sensitive
Deloitte, hackers and scammers increased greatly increases the odds of a potentially
company information from home.
their efforts soon after COVID hit, specif- devastating breach.
ically targeting remote workers.
Apps Shaping the Virtual Workspace

Interest and investment in re- Teamflow and colleagues can gather their avatars ing productivity, but it does appear to be will even the playing field for remote and
mote work platforms has never in common areas or meeting rooms to a fun, cathartic way to interact with your in-office workers—even teams gathered
Founded by ex-Uber exec Florent Criv-
conduct work and social interactions. colleagues. in a single conference room at the office
been higher, and a crop of ello, Teamflow is a remote work appli-
can log in individually on their devices, so
lesser known startups are rising cation designed to replicate the organic
With Sneek that every participant is displayed in the
to meet the growing demand. interaction and conversation of a tra-
same format. The app has even developed
ditional office environment in a virtual Opting for a more conceptual approach, This startup has designed its interface to
Some provide niche solutions, a feature so that users in close proximity
setting. Users see their video or profile With operates on more of an abstract reflect one specific office habit—dropping
others offer versatile collabo- pic in a bubble that appears on a virtual
to one another don’t experience audio
digital canvas, rather than trying to by your coworkers’ desks to see if they’re feedback or echo on the call.
rative platforms, but all have office floor plan. The user can then move represent the layout of a physical office free to chat. The Sneek app displays
the potential to help shape the through the digital space using their space. Workers are represented by subtly your workmates in a grid format, with
future of remote work. arrow keys, and approach colleagues’ animated avatars of animals distribut- still images from their webcam updated
bubbles to engage them in conversation. ed throughout the virtual space, and at regular intervals. Users can scan the
Users only hear the voices of coworkers can drag documents and tools onto the grid to see if colleagues are at their desks
whose bubbles are within close proximi- shared desktop. and appear available, or if they’ve indi-
ty, and spatial audio recreates the direc- cated they are busy and don’t want to be
tional perspective of an in-person chat. disturbed. To initiate a video call with a
Reslash
fellow worker, the user can simply click
Most work software is designed for their image.
Gather
clarity and efficiency, but not Reslash—
Bringing a retro cyber aesthetic to col- founder Ashwin Gupta says the plat-
laboration software, Gather emulates the form was founded on the premise that Around
routines of office life in order to bring remote coworkers can connect during Rather than try to faithfully recreate face-
structure to the remote work experience. the workday as they “destroy and cre- to-face conversations with a fullscreen
Customizable avatars can be navigated ate beautiful chaos out of nowhere.” video interface, Around shrinks par-
through a 2D virtual office, designed in The result is a variety of meme-soaked, ticipants’ videos and places them in the
charming 8-bit graphics reminiscent of gif-spangled shared screens, where users margin of the user’s screen, leaving the
‘80s console games. Logging in and sit- are encouraged to make a mess in the desktop visible and accessible so that the
ting at a digital desk marks one’s arrival name of unstructured creativity. It’s hard project at hand can remain the focus.
and the symbolic start of the workday, to imagine this format directly improv- Ultimately the hope is that this format

Managed Meetings

Mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing once
proposed a thesis and a test: If someday, a computer could
answer questions in a manner indistinguishable from
humans, then it must be “thinking.” You’ve likely heard
of the paper by another name: the Turing Test. It’s been
a guiding force in the development of artificial intelli-
gence ever since. Tests built on either deception (can a
computer fool a human into believing it’s human?) or
replication (can a computer act exactly as we would?) do
not acknowledge A.I. for what it has always been: intelli-
gence gained and expressed in ways that do not resemble
our own human experience. Rather than judging an A.I.
based on whether it can or cannot “think” exactly like we
do, a new test judges the value of contributions made by
the A.I. on its own during meetings. The Meaningful
Contribution Test would be passed when an A.I. assistant
can help manage a meeting, by pushing back on a small
but growing consensus, tactfully argue for an alternative
plan and recruit another member of the group to support
that alternative.

Culture
Digital Fashion
Some of the world’s best known designers The digital fashion market is poised for • The Fabricant
With more and more of have gotten wise to the virtual revolu- growth, both for its versatility in online • Gucci
the developed world’s tion. Iconic Italian fashion house Gucci environments and its ability to reduce
has invested in a number of digital fash- waste without retailers having to forego • Louis Vuitton
population customiz- • Dapper Labs
ion initiatives, from a free digital closet sales. Physical garments may soon come
ing avatars in virtual partnership with avatar platform Genies, with virtual counterparts, allowing users
realms, and with the to an integration with styling game Drest, to catalog their wardrobes digitally, and
to an in-house app called Sneaker Garage, hang on to a version of their garments
fashion industry per- where users can use augmented reality even after the physical piece degrades.
petually under fire for to “try on” the brand’s virtual footwear. The ability to express oneself freely
its pollutive practices, Other big-name designer labels have through virtual styles may help consum-
similarly seen gaming as their entrée into ers develop more ecologically conscious I truly believe we are
the market for digital the digital space, with Hermès launching shopping habits when it comes to real-
fashion has a promising an equestrian-inspired mobile gaming world items. In time, as AR eyewear going to be the first
future.
app, and Louis Vuitton partnering with becomes commonplace, users may even billion-dollar digital
the massively popular League of Legends be able to virtually showcase their digital
gaming franchise. Elsewhere, Dutch looks on their person instead of just an fashion company.
With the rising popularity of digital fashion, we brand The Fabricant has established itself avatar—imagine a future in which you
may soon see virtual wardrobes that help us — The Fabricant founder Kerry Murphy
catalog and coordinate our physical, digital, and
as one of the leading digital fashion com- select a simple sustainable garment or
hybrid garments and accessories. panies, catching headlines when one of “canvas” from your physical closet, but
its virtual dresses sold for an eye-popping select a virtual outfit to project on top of
$9,500. it, one that is visible to anyone wearing
smart glasses.

Upcycled and Circular Fashion

According to analytics firm First Insight, Sustainability is the single greatest chal- • ASOS
Once the preferred more than half of Gen Z customers lenge facing the fashion industry—and • H&M Looop
method of DIY surveyed prefer to buy from sustainable also its greatest opportunity. An invest-
brands, and nearly three quarters are ment in circular production models now • Marine Serre
designers and niche • Patagonia
willing to pay more for sustainable prod- may pay dividends in the future as the
clothing brands, ucts. Big name retailers have taken note, next generation of conscientious con- • Reformation
upcycling and circular, innovating on upcycling and circularity sumers matures and their purchasing
to attract this growing customer base behaviours shape the industry. More
sustainable fashion and reduce harm on the environment. retailers are exploring buyback and recy-
has matured to the Fashion industry waste ranges from its cling programs as well, like H&M’s Looop
point where it is being sheer output—tens of billions of clothing program, which dissembles old textiles to
products are produced each year, even by create new products without using virgin We don’t have to all
adopted at scale conservative estimates—to the consump- materials. Brands that are making the
by fashion retailers tion of water and even coal. From indus- foray into digital fashion often cite sus- reinvent the wheel, but
worldwide.
try leaders like outdoor clothing brand tainability as a benefit, and digital designs brands that don’t face
Patagonia, whose award-winning circular will complement responsibly produced
production model is founded on design- real-life garments to form the hybrid these realities of the
ing pieces to last a lifetime with proper fashion industry of the future. true cost of apparel
care and refurbishment, to high fashion
Parisian label Marine Serre, whose line is and fast fashion, I think
constructed of roughly half upcycled ma-
they will be left behind.
New production models from fashion retailers look terials, sustainable solutions are spreading
to repurpose existing materials and garments wher-
and accelerating across a diverse range of — Patagonia CEO Rose Marcario
ever possible, instead of producing virgin materials.
fashion retailers.

Digital Makeup
Social media platforms including Snap- Digital beauty is not merely a consum- • AliPay
Digital makeup exists chat and Instagram offer users AR filters er perk. It can have a direct effect on • Drest
at the intersection of that can change their physical appearance business. China’s AliPay responded to
in photos and videos. Some are fanciful, complaints that customers were put off by • Evenprime
facial recognition, 3D • Ines Alpha
giving the user animal attributes or dras- their appearance when paying for items
mapping, and aug- tically changing their features, but others via facial recognition camera systems, • L’Oreal
mented reality. As AR mimic the effects of makeup, contouring adding a digital beauty filter to improve
• Snap
and coloring the face with the aim of the experience. Gaming platforms with
becomes a part of our improving its aesthetic. Even video con- customizable avatars and robust mar- • Spellbreak
everyday lives, digital ferencing platform Zoom has a feature ketplaces for in-game purchases are a
touchups and expres- where users can smooth their complexion popular way for beauty brands to test
for a more desirable appearance. Beauty digital products. Unisex skincare label
sive virtual makeup will brands themselves have ventured into the Evenprime created a “skin” for avatars in
define how we choose digital space as well. Redken, Avon, MAC the fantasy action game Spellbreak, and
and Maybelline offer virtual “try-on” AR customers who bought Evenprime’s skin
to present ourselves to apps, saving time and money for those serum in the physical world automatically
the world. looking to match products to their skin received access to the digital skin. With
tone when buying online. L’Oreal, mean- gaming becoming increasingly popular
while, has created a line of digital-only among women and girls, despite old-fash-
beauty products to be used in popular ioned assumptions to the contrary, the
social and video conferencing apps. gaming and esports beauty market may
By accurately mapping and tracking of the face, AI soon become a new profit center for
and augmented reality can produce lifelike digital
cosmetics brands.
beauty filters that blend seamlessly with the user’s
movements.

Extreme Sunscreen

In the Anthropocene era, the amount of solar radiation
emitted by the sun is too intense for relaxing at the
beach––or doing mundane activities, like walking to
school. Enter climate protection: a range of lotions and
salves that glide onto the skin and fend off extreme sun,
heat, and wind. Made with synthetic zinc oxide, titani-
um dioxide and polypodium leucotomos extract, climate
protection blocks radiation and temporarily desensitizes
the skin to harsh, dry air. It’s dangerous to spend time
outdoors without coverage. Those who can afford beauty
enhancements opt for pricier formulas that include body
makeup, to correct blemishes, veins, and scars. For the
lips and face, personalized climate protection includes a
topical, fast-absorbing collagen that tightens and plumps
the skin, though no salve reverses the sun damage caused
by extreme climate change in the early 2000’s.

Vices
The new crop of vices are digital, high- A bitter election season, fragile economy • Doppel
From neuroenhancers tech and organic. They were designed and the global pandemic resulted in stress • Emotiv
to sextech, the unique to strengthen our mental performance and burnout. Two thirds of adults say
and agility, help us relax, and afford us that the number of issues America is fac- • New Frontier Data
market for digital • Thync Kit
moments of pleasure. ing is overwhelming to them, according
and high-tech vices is to a study by the American Psychological • Bulletproof
growing. Association.
In the past year, as lockdowns forced
people indoors and reset our social struc-
tures, many struggled to navigate self-
care. It’s no surprise that we’re seeking
new ways to escape reality or to enhance
our moods.
CBD gummies are increasingly available in

the U.S.

Vices
Neuroenhancers or your parasympathetic (rest and digest) foods based on what they need enhanced: Grinder Biohacking
Neuroenhancement devices aim to nervous system. Of course, this same performance, focus, or sleep. Most body-machine interfaces, like Elon
record brain waves and send feedback. technology can be used for nefarious Musk’s Neurolink, aren’t ready for the
Some promise to help you become more purposes. In China, the military and some Nootropics general public yet, but that hasn’t stopped
productive, while others are meant to businesses now use connected headbands some people from experimenting. Grind-
and hats to monitor employee brain If you need to manage stress or focus,
boost your mood. Australia-based Smart- you might look to “nootropics,” cogni- er biohackers implant RFID tags, com-
Cap uses a tracking system with voice activity. This emotional surveillance tech- puter chips, magnets, data transmitters
nology is said to optimize productivity— tive enhancement drugs that promise to
warnings and vibrations to keep you alert help keep you calm and attentive. These and sensors in their bodies. Their aim:
while on the job. The Muse headband State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power, based transverse the human-machine divide,
in Hangzhou, reported its profits spiked dietary supplements have been shown
uses neurofeedback to help manage stress to improve cognitive function—even if and become more seamlessly integrated
and improve athletic performance. The $315 million since using neuroenhancer with technology.
devices and software to mine, refine, and they’re not officially regulated or ap-
Emotiv Epoc+ and Emotiv Insight and proved by the Food and Drug Adminis-
mobile EEG devices monitor your brain analyze employee brain data.
tration. You may already be taking a few: CBD-Infused Products
activity and analyze cognitive perfor- caffeine, red reishi mushrooms, ginseng,
mance. Doppel, which is worn on the Nutrigenomics Consumers can get CBD in post-workout
turmeric, ginkgo biloba, and Bulletproof smoothies, hand lotions, and even morn-
wrist, uses electric pulses to augment As genome sequencing becomes more coffee are all popular, while natural
your energy. The pulsations, which you ing coffee. Cannabidiol, otherwise known
Puff Bar defied FDA rules in January and began widely available and affordable, some supplements like creatine, L-theanine and as CBD, is a chemical compound found
selling its products again online. dial in based on your needs, are supposed biohackers are using DNA results to Bacopa monnieri are also being marketed
to have an effect on your brain similar to in the resinous flower of cannabis. While
nutritionally manipulate their bodies. to help promote mental clarity, focus, and it’s a component of marijuana—one of
that of music. The Thync Kit is a series of All nutritional decisions–-what foods information retention. Synthetic com-
electrodes and a triangular device that you hundreds, actually—it is far less psycho-
to avoid, what drinks to consume more pounds, like Adrafinil and Noopept, last active than the better-known THC, if at
stick on to your head—as well as a mobile of, what vitamins and supplements to longer and take effect within minutes. By
app synced to your smartphone. It deliv- all. In other words, it doesn’t really get
take—are based on that baseline sequence some analyst estimates, the nootropics you high. As of January 2021, 14 states,
ers low-grade electric pulses to influence and real-time metabolic testing. Biohack- market could reach $11 billion in Ameri-
either your sympathetic (fight or flight) Washington, D.C. and three territories
ers consume different combinations of ca alone by 2024. have legalized cannabis, according to the
Vices
National Conference of State Legislatures, beverages. Constellation Brands, which namic Distribution platform, which helps e-commerce, distribution, inventory Disease Control and Prevention estimates
but the federal government’s stance on makes Corona beer, and Lagunitas (a sub- companies in California list themselves as management, texting, and loyalty pro- that 3 million American teenagers vape
CBD is murky. It depends on whether sidiary of Heineken), are both investing third-party distributors for other brands, grams. either tobacco or marijuana, and a new-
the CBD came from hemp or marijuana, in new techniques to infuse their prod- and automatically runs compliance ly-identified lung disease called EVALI,
and every state follows different local ucts with CBD. In some markets, Laguni- checks. This will enable cannabis brands Banking for Cannabis short for “e-cigarette, or vaping, product
laws. CBD has been touted for a variety tas also offers drinks with 10mg of THC. to someday move products within their Dispensaries use-associated lung injury” is growing
of health benefits and has been shown in states more easily. sharply among that cohort. Puff Bar,
many studies to reduce seizures, especial- Banking is a big hurdle for dispensaries which was ordered last year to take its
Cannabis Supply Chains and their parent companies. Servicing
ly in children with epilepsy syndromes. Cannabis Compliance Systems fruit-flavored vape products off the mar-
Because the FDA doesn’t regulate CBD, The supply chain for cannabis is chal- the cannabis industry would expose ket, defied FDA and resumed online sales
there aren’t yet studies that determine lenging, and due to federal regulation, With the industry heavily regulated, it traditional financial institutions to federal in January, saying that it no longer uses
the most effective doses. Most of what’s the largest logistics companies—Amazon, can be difficult for dispensary companies prosecution. Green Thumb Industries, nicotine derived from tobacco. Instead,
commercially available in infused prod- Fedex, and UPS—cannot legally service with business units located in different which operates 50 stores, earned $8 the manufacturer uses synthetic nicotine
ucts like drinks and snacks is very low, vendors. Cannabis brands must become states to keep track of compliance. New billion last year. But it doesn’t have access made in a lab. Juul Labs, which dominates
but the market is huge: the CBD industry their own first party distributor and must A.I.-powered platforms are helping dis- to banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo; the e-cig market and is largely blamed for
in the United States will be worth $16 own all of their own logistics systems pensaries meet these sometimes complex instead, it must rely on a constellation of America’s vaping epidemic, voluntarily
billion by 2025. (vehicles, warehouses, packaging) or else compliance regulations. small community banks. However with discontinued its flavored products, with
use specially-licensed third-party vendors. Democrats in charge of the White House, the exception of tobacco and menthol
That latter category is catalyzing new Specialized Cannabis CRM Senate and House, new legislation could flavors. Many competing brands includ-
CBD-Infused Drinks business growth. Local dispensaries are make banking easier for dispensaries.
Platforms ing Bidi Stick and Blu, offer disposable,
Beverages is a growing vertical within the supporting startups that can take orders, pre-charged, pre-filled vaping devices,
cannabis industry. As restrictions loosen authenticate users, and ensure safe and Unlike traditional CRM or customer
databases, marketers in the cannabis space Vaping and E-cigarettes and they’re cheaper than Juul pods.
on recreational marijuana use, commer- legal delivery to consumers. Eaze and
cial beverage companies are launching Greenrush are the biggest players in have additional regulations to contend In February 2021, lawmakers held a hear-
new CBD-infused products, like sparkling medical marijuana delivery. Wayv, a B2B with. Baker is an automation platform ing to determine why the FDA failed to
water, tea, sports drinks and alcoholic cannabis logistics firm, launched its Dy- that caters to dispensaries, combining regulate vaping sooner. The Centers for

Play
eSports
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES
Online chess became a streaming ob-

The video game indus- session last year, due in part to Netflix
try prospered during the hit “The Queens Gambit” and to a new
generation of streamers on Twitch, the
COVID-19 pandemic. online gaming platform. Between January
While organized com- and September, viewers consumed more
petitive gaming has than 40 million hours of live-streamed
chess. The League of Legends World
arguably existed for de- Championships clocked more than 139
cades, advancements million hours of viewership. Twitch, the
primary streaming portal for eSports in
in gaming technology,
the Western world, logged a staggering
accessibility, streaming 17 billion hours worth of content last
capabilities, and pop- year, a full 83% higher than its previous
record in 2019. (Twitch was acquired
ularity have led to an by Amazon in 2014.) When Rep. Al-
astronomical rise in its exandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) joined
commercial potential high-profile Twitch gamers for a round
of “Among Us,” the stream broke records:
and perceived legitima- 435,000 viewers watched to see who was
cy in recent years. the imposter.
Chess grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura has more than 1 million followers on Twitch.

eSports continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT Championships and Fortnite concerts. EMERGING PLAYERS
Even before the pandemic, 2020 was set eSports will soon rival television as • 100 Thieves
to be a blockbuster year in gaming and a form of mainstream entertainment
• Bethesda Game Studios
eSports. New consoles from PlayStation because of its interactive and immersive
and Xbox weren’t just minor upgrades nature. Advertisers are taking notice. • Catalyst Sports & Media
to hardware, they were generational Nike sponsors several professional teams. • Bayes Holding
leaps with drastically improved graphics As the sport matures, so will concerns
• Overwatch League
processing and motion control. eSports about fair play. E-doping is already an
tournaments weren’t held in person, issue in professional eSports leagues, • Twitch
but plenty of tournaments were held where Adderall and Ritalin are banned • Y Media Labs
and without football games and boxing substances and using a cheat-code can get
matches to bet on, eSports betting found you banned for life.
wide new audiences last year. In 2020,
eSports companies raised more than
$2 billion, up 115% in value from 2019,
according to Quantum Tech Partners. As
audience numbers for eSports continue to
climb, platforms will compete to outbid
each other for media and streaming rights
for events like League of Legends World

eSports Training Academies

Amateurs hoping to make the leap to eSports pros earn upwards of $250,000 a • High School Esports League
As the eSports ecosys- professional eSports can’t just excel at year, while performance coaches can earn • National Association of
tem grows, new acad- certain games—they need to understand $100,000 or more. Given the market size Collegiate Esports (NACE)
the gaming business, how to manage and projected growth, amateurs hoping
emies are launching to • League of Legends
their time, and how to develop content to play professionally are seeking practical
recruit and train pro- and interact with fans. Several colleges training. Davon Williams, a computer • Centry Academy of Gaming and
spective professional and universities, including Ohio State scientist with the U.S. Army Network Esports
and George Mason, offer undergraduate Enterprise Technology Command, has
players and coaches. degree programs in eSports. launched the Centry Academy of Gaming
and Esports (CAGE), an online school
that plans to offer degrees in eSports
specializations: coach, player, streamer
and announcer.
The Collegiate Star League offers college sSports

scholarships.

Gaming Subscription Wars

Subscription models from Apple, Goo- The same challenges streamers are facing • Microsoft’s Game Pass
Games pose a unique gle, Sony and Microsoft are changing will befall gaming companies in the very • Google Stadia
business challenge: the traditional dynamics of games. After near future. Game fans don’t have unlim-
spending hundreds of dollars on con- ited budgets, and they’ll need to choose • PlayStation Now
when a company has no • Apple Arcade
soles, players have to shell out $20 - $60 between subscription packages.
new console or block- or more on individual games. In a world
buster title, players where mobile phone games cost a frac-
tion of that price, gaming companies have
hop over to other plat- reconsidered subscriptions as a way to
forms. New subscription generate revenue over longer periods of
models hope to keep time. Google launched its game streaming
service Stadia in August 2019, with sub-
consumers loyal—and scriptions to its portfolio of games. Mic-
away from competition. rosoft’s Game Pass launched in 2017—it’s
like Netflix, but for games. For between
$5 - $15 per month, subscribers get access
to hundreds of games, including hot new
titles on the day of release.
Microsoft Game Pass features hundreds of titles.

Infinite Gameplay
Infinite gameplay means you never have How do you “win” a game if it has no • EVE Online
The most popular video to log off, and you’ll never defeat the final end? Newer game design elements perfect • Roblox
games today have one boss. In these never-ending games, play- addiction triggers and dopamine rewards
ers can also take part in hybrid real-world to shape and alter our psychological state • Fortnight
thing in common: they • League of Legends
experiences like going to a concert or and behavior. Our lives will be increas-
never end. Rather than even buying real estate. The Sims and ingly gamified, as never-ending games • Minecraft
traditional games with Minecraft are examples of longstanding merge with the activities that already
• Twitch
games that allow players to build their form part of our lives. Connected ex-
a beginning, middle own realities. More recent titles like Fort- ercise platforms, such as Peloton bikes,
and end, many of these night and League of Legends are univers- use built-in game elements (badges,
video games are more es that players can log into at any time for contests and leaderboards). Meditation
a fully immersive and interactive break apps like Headspace nudge and reward us
like online worlds, where from the real world. Classic games like (somewhat paradoxically) to engage with
players can participate Super Mario, Pokemon and Grand Theft them. Workplace optimization tools also
Auto are being redesigned and re-released encourage us to strive for new achieve-
Fortnight launched in 2017 and quickly became
one of the world’s most popular games.
whenever and for how- in this unrestricted format to the delight ments, with progress and rewards being
ever long they like, with of gamers everywhere. symbolized in digital form.
success measured in
achievements instead of
a single, finite objective.

Sports Tech
Professional NFL players are retiring Smart equipment is being developed • AlterG
Elite athletes are using early, citing a history of concussions and for nearly every sport. The Wilson X
• Babolat
more and more sophis- the risks of chronic traumatic encepha- Connected basketball is embedded with
lopathy, or CTE. Last year, seven-time sensors and tracks patterns in shooting. • Puma
ticated tech tools to Adidas makes a smart soccer ball with • Riddell
Pro Bowl linebacker Luke Kuechly retired
improve training and from the NFL at just 28 years old, and
integrated sensors that can detect speed,
• Technogym
spin, strike, and trajectory when the ball
performance. Stadi- he wasn’t the first to hang up his helmet is kicked. Meanwhile stadiums employ • Under Armour
before 30—quarterback Andrew Luck drones and video for everything from
ums now use audience retired in 2019 at age 29. As competitive • Wilson
audience sentiment analysis to cleaning
analysis and drones to sports become more intense, data-track- up garbage after games. Italian equipment
improve the live and ing tools could help prevent the kinds of manufacturer Technogym is developing
injuries that have led to these early re- next-generation machines that incorpo-
televised experience. tirements. Football equipment manufac- rate a user’s biometric data, which can be
Much of this sport tech- turer Riddell now makes smart helmets tracked before, during and after exercise.
outfitted with tiny sensors that transmit Emerging research in reduced-gravity
nology could eventually impact data in real time. Coaches on the activity is helping athletes re-acclimate
end up in the hands of after injury. AlterG’s anti-gravity tread-
sidelines can see the effects of single and
mill automatically reduces the natural
consumers looking to multiple impacts sustained during a game,
weight of athletes to as little as 20% of
and they receive alerts if the numbers get body weight in precise 1% increments for
improve their health too high. low-impact, pain-free movement. Smart
and well-being. sports equipment could reach a market
Riddell’s InSite training helmet collects and
size of $12 billion over the next five years.
analyzes on-field head impacts.
The use of advanced technology in both
analytics and performance is likely to alter
the state of many contemporary sports.
Connected Toys
Thirty-six years ago, animatronic Ted- The upcoming generation of connected • Bandai Namco Holdings
Connected toys collect dy Ruxpin bears sang, told stories and toys will use more data and will include • AWS
and use data for in- even blinked. Priced at $69.99 (roughly even more personalization. Advance-
$175.54 in 2021 dollars), the dolls had ments in computer vision, voice and • Sony
teractive experiences. • Wonder Workshop
audio cassette decks built into their backs; sound recognition, and spatial computing
While they’re fun for specially-formatted tapes controlled the will result in richer, more interactive
kids, lawmakers and servo motors for Teddy’s eyes and mouth, experiences. As connected toys evolve,
and also played audio recordings. For they will rely less on mobile devices and
academic researchers about the same price today, Cozmo is a will instead connect to the cloud. This
have raised questions small, self-aware, A.I.-powered robot means increased bandwidth needs—and,
about privacy. with a base personality, and the more you very likely, new privacy concerns. In the
play with him, the more that personality U.S., 92% of children now have an online
evolves. Made by San Francisco-based presence by the time they are 2 years old,
company Anki, the toy expresses anger according to AVG. Tech companies and
when he loses a contest, and his eyes toy manufacturers are still learning how
turn into upside-down U’s to show joy. to balance childrens’ privacy, which is
Facial recognition allows it to remem- required under the Children’s Online Pri-
ber faces and call people by their names. vacy Protection Act (COPPA), with play.
Sony’s Aibo is a lifelike robotic dog that
Sony’s connected toy dog Aibo doubles as a smart responds to touch—scratch his neck and
home assistant. his tail will start wagging. You can teach
him tricks, like fetching a ball and giving
a high-five. Aibo also recognizes his own-
ers using computer vision technology.

Kids Fitness Games and Toys

Approximately one in three children Nintendo’s Ring Fit Adventure is a • Bandai Namco Holdings
Parents, increasingly in the U.S. are now considered to be connected fitness add-on for the Ninten- • Garmin
concerned that their overweight or obese, according to the do Switch console. The game takes the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and player on an athletic adventure through • Nintendo
children aren’t getting
Prevention. Researchers point to a lack of worlds, villages and gyms. Cute monsters,
enough exercise, are physical activity as a contributing factor. dispatched by arch-nemesis Drageaux,
looking to toys and As a result, games and toys that encour- challenge players to battles: simple yoga
age healthy behaviors are an attractive poses, squats, crunches and planks.
games that nudge kids market for toy developers, fitness trackers During the quest, players jog or run in
into more active life- and game designers. The Gululu interac- place. Kids who play the game spend an
styles. They’re also bor- tive smart water bottle and health tracker average of 30 minutes in active move-
for kids encourages them to drink more ment. On the horizon: massively multi-
rowing from the quan- water. The bottle includes an LED screen player online fitness games, in which kids
tified-self movement to with a preloaded game. The more water can connect with each other and go on
kids drink, the further their character active adventures together.
monitor kids’ health and will get in the game. Parents can monitor
wellness. their children’s hydration in real-time
using a mobile app.
Nintendo’s Ring Fit Adventure teaches kids how to

do basic exercises.

Protecting Little Gamers

In the U.S., the Children’s Online Pri- The privacy risks posed by connected • Federal Trade Commission
Connected toys and vacy Protection Act (COPPA) makes it toys mirror those adults face whenever • Mozilla
games require data illegal to collect data from children under using phones, smart cameras and speak-
the age of 13 without first obtaining a ers, and other connected devices. But our • U.S. Public Interest Research Group
to work properly, and
parent’s consent, and in 2017 the Feder- tolerance for data exposure shifts when
privacy experts are al Trade Commission updated COPPA children are involved. The smart toy in-
concerned about how guidelines to specifically include toy man- dustry is growing rapidly. Some estimate
ufacturers. For connected toys, the terms the market could be worth more than $18
children’s data are be- of service are shown during set up, but billion by 2023, but privacy regulation is
ing collected, used and most people don’t read the fine print. As lagging behind technological innovation.
safeguarded. a result, they are agreeing to data sharing,
whether they realize it or not.
Parents and privacy advocates are increasingly

concerned about the data being collected as
children play with connected toys and games.

Digital Addiction
The World Health Organization added As concern about digital addiction • Center for Humane Technology
Digital products rely on gaming disorder to the next edition of the increases, consumers will become less • Twitch
habit-forming features International Classification of Diseases in tolerant of so-called “dark patterns” that
May 2019, making it one of the few be- use psychological cues to induce greater • TikTok
for success, but a grow- • Snap
havioral health addictions to gain formal consumption. Every business model for
ing body of research recognition. In the tech realm, companies media hinges on commanding the atten- • World Health Organization
highlights the nega- are responding with design changes to tion of an audience. As social attitudes
reinforce healthy device use. Instagram toward technology shift, product design-
tive impacts that those experimented with removing public like ers should be mindful that they’re not
sticky features can have counts to discourage users from compar- perceived as eliciting detrimental behav-
on mental health and ing themselves to others. Several startups ior or harming the physical and mental
are pursuing mini-smartphones designed health of their users.
well-being. with smaller screens and stripped down
interfaces to encourage users to look at
their devices less often. Google and Apple
continue to develop features that help
users monitor their digital well-being and
Digital addiction affects children as young as screen time.
2 years old.

Digital Drugs

There is more than one way to alter your state of mind
when perception-altering technologies are the norm.
We use biohacking to give ourselves an excessive rush of
dopamine, we use diminished reality for sensory depri-
vation induced hallucinations, and we use dissolving
bioelectronics as a stimulant. Party-goers test their limits.
Researchers rush to find antidotes for those that trigger
psychosis, loss of neural functions, and permanent brain
damage. Digital addiction takes on a whole new meaning.
A prolonged dose of reality is the only prescription.

Application
Covid-19 forced many companies to The intersection of work, culture and In the realm of digital vices, R&D teams Chief risk management officers found
recalibrate their strategies, or postpone play unlock tremendous opportunities have plenty to investigate. The future of that their typical risk profiles shifted in
their annual planning cycles. This had for innovation teams. From new prod- work will continue to take shape over the past year, and not all companies
a dramatic acceleration on digital uct development, to experimentation in the next few years. For example, what were prepared. Strategy will be more
transformation efforts, which in some distributed office structures, to com- might a decentralized office look like agile and dynamic going forward,
companies had only just begun. Even pletely reimagining fashion, games, in five years? What will the infrastruc- especially as work, play and culture in-
before the world reopens and em- beauty and toys, creative risk takers are ture and technology needs be? When tertwine. With work from home policies
ployees are vaccinated, chief strategy in a position to shape the future of their it comes to neuroenhancers and CBD, in flux, widely available enhancers and
officers must make critical decisions industries. Chief innovation officers investors are enthusiastic about the vices, and an endless stream of digital
about whether to champion a distribut- should lean in to all this disruption and possibilities. Rather than waiting to distractions, an organization’s ability
ed workforce or to recentralize opera- champion thinking across longer-term see what regulations pass, R&D teams to manage risk this year could be a vul-
tions. Strategy executives should find a time horizons within their organizations. can begin preliminary research on nerability. Or a strategic differentiator.
balance between near and long-term questions and hypotheses that could
upskilling, operations, and technology deliver stronger business outcomes in
implementation. the future.


begin by asking these questions:
1 2 3
Is our company tracking With regard to Will our organization
?
disruptions outside of our digital vices, what benefit from continued
immediate industry? is our position on remote work?
transparency, ethics,
Which trends require a How can we reimagine
and accountability?
deeper understanding? our physical and digital
Do our employees workspaces?
understand this
position? Do our
customers?

Selected Sources
https://www.corenetglobal.org/stay- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/
informed/newsdetail.aspx?ItemNum- nike-to-dress-2020-olympic-athletes-
ber=43022 in-uniforms-made-of-recycled-shoes.
html
https://www.ey.com/en_us/work-
force/how-employers-and-employ- https://www.allure.com/gallery/hair-
ees-are-envisioning-the-reimag- makeup-nail-brands-virtual-try-on
ined-workplace
https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/03/
https://www.techrepublic.com/article/ alipay-beauty-filters/
how-remote-working-poses-securi-
ty-risks-for-your-organization/ https://www.voguebusiness.com/tech-
nology/digital-only-beauty-from-gam-
https://www.shrm.org/about-shrm/ ing-skins-to-zoom-makeup
Pages/default.asp
https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/
https://hr.mit.edu/worklife/center women-account-for-46-of-all-game-
enthusiasts-watching-game-video-
https://www.vogue.com/article/virtu- content-and-esports-has-changed-
al-styling-app-drest-e-commerce how-women-and-men-alike-engage-
with-games/
https://www.thedrum.com/
news/2019/08/08/inside-guc-
ci-s-gen-z-bet-avatars-the-lat-
est-chapter-luxury-s-digital-epiphany
https://www.theverge.
com/2019/9/23/20875541/louis-vuit-
ton-league-of-legends-skins-summon-
ers-cup-case

Volume 5 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Health
Report Medical
Strategic trends that will influence business, Wearables
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Health, Medical and Wearables
198 Summary 226 Mature Wearables

199 Doctorless Exams 226 Watches
200 At-Home Medical Laboratory Tests 226 Rings and Bracelets
201 Telemedicine 226 Hearables and Earables
202 Scenario: A New Kind of Body Shop 226 Head Mounted Displays
203 Biometric Screening Systems 226 Smart Glasses
204 Big Tech Disrupts Health Care 226 Smart Shoes
206 Amazon’s Health Care Ambitions 227 Smart Gloves
207 Scenario: These Walls Can Talk 227 Biointerfaces
208 Chief Health Officers 227 Nanomesh Tattoos
209 High-Tech Concierge Care 227 Dissolving Bioelectronics
210 Remote Patient Monitoring 227 Nanobots
211 Digital Transformation 228 Smart Threads
in Health Care 228 Skinput Systems
212 Patient-Generated Health Data 229 Brain Machine Interfaces
213 Automatic Medical Transcribing 230 Expert Insight: The Post-Pandemic
214 Scenario: 3D Printing in the ER Optimistic Future: From
215 Smart Biohazard Wearables COVID to Consumerism
216 Cognitive and Neural Optimization 233 Application
218 Metabolic Monitoring 234 Key Questions
219 Prescription-Strength Gaming 235 Sources
220 Digital Fitness and Training
221 Sleep Tech
222 Scenario: Scent Diagnostics
223 Wearables and Biointerfaces
224 Emerging Wearables
224 COVID-19 Sensors
224 Cloud-based Wireless Body
Area Networks
224 Adaptive and Assistive Wearables
224 Commercial Full-Body Exoskeletons
224 Wearable Air Conditioners
225 Connected Fabrics
225 Touch-Sensitive Materials
Health
+ Health care is the next battle- + The last few years saw the launch
ground for big tech companies. of smart fitness equipment,
Amazon, Google, Apple, and which includes mirrors, bikes, and
Facebook see health care as ripe treadmills. The pandemic ac-
for disruption—and an industry celerated sales and helped the
where they can make positive market grow significantly.
Medical
improvements.
+ Video games are being devel-
+ Because of its scale and reach, oped to treat certain condi-
Amazon could force established tions and diseases. Prescrip-
pharmaceutical companies, tion-strength games even carry
health care systems, and insurers Food and Drug Administration
to adapt and evolve. approval.
Wearables
+ COVID-19 accelerated the adop- + Sleep tech is big business: By
tion of telemedicine visits, which 2026, the market size could be
spurred a new digital transfor- upward of $30 billion.
mation effort in health care.
+ This could be the year that Face-
Summary
+ More diagnostic tests are being book and Apple launch their
done at home using connected smart glasses.
devices, including smart mirrors
and smart toilets.
+ Last year was a sudden dress

rehearsal for widespread remote
patient monitoring.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Health, Medical and Wearables Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Doctorless Exams
Smartphones and smartwatches now Continual monitoring helps patients • The Clue period tracking app
Advancements in take blood pressure readings and perform know their baseline vital stats and track • Apple Health
diagnostic testing and electrocardiograms, using apps approved any changes. This disrupts traditional
• Steth IO
by the Food and Drug Administration. health care in a few ways. First, with con-
remote monitoring, • Healthy.io
Phones don’t just record data; they inter- tinual monitoring, patients are more like-
supported by cloud pret it. People who wear an Apple Watch ly to intercept an emerging problem in • Paratus Diagnostics
computing, machine know that an unusually high or low heart advance and seek out care. For example,
• Butterfly Network
rate or irregular rhythm may suggest some patients will call their doctor for
learning, and low- atrial fibrillation. The VROR system, next steps if their smartwatch warns of • AliveCor
cost technology, are a VR-based eye exam, emulates an eye atrial fibrillation. This reduces strain on
upending traditional doctor’s ultra-widefield imaging machine emergency departments. It also unlocks
but within a compact headset. Data is sent new opportunities for health care systems
doctor visits. Patient to a mobile app for an understanding of and insurers willing to use such data and
data is triaged by a patient’s optic nerve health. Steth IO is to make medical records systems interop-
a mobile stethoscope that uses a smart- erable. Financial forecasting that harness-
algorithm, rather than phone to capture, decode, and analyze es real-time data could be algorithmically
human doctors alone. heart sounds. AliveCor is an FDA-cleared recalibrated and more accurately assess
wireless personal EKG that connects to risk. But connected devices aren’t acces-
a phone. Butterfly iQ is a portable ultra- sible to everyone, which means a new
sound device that delivers a 2D image. digital divide could be on the horizon,
The ParatusPerio Test analyzes different further reducing health equity in many
AliveCor’s personal EKG monitoring system. bacteria and sources of inflammation in a communities.
patient’s mouth.

At-Home Medical Laboratory Tests

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES EMERGING PLAYERS
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT
Because toilets are in direct contact with COVID-19 accelerated the use of tele- • Healthy.io
The everyday equip- two key sources of data—our skin and medicine in the U.S. and other countries • Toto
ment in your bathroom our waste—they offer opportunities to where remote visits were previously • Everlywell
analyze our real-time health. Stanford
will soon be used to col- restricted. With telemedicine as a new
• Imaware
University researchers identified dif- normal, at-home lab tests will increase
lect biological samples ferent cancers, liver diseases, and gut and disrupt diagnostic companies, such • FoodMarble
for daily monitoring and disorders using motion and pressure as Labcorp and Quest Diagnostics, and • Lumen
sensors, urinalysis strips, computer drugstore retailers with clinics, such as
testing. You won’t have vision, and infrared sensors. Toto’s new • LetsGetChecked
Target and CVS.
to worry about making Wellness Toilet builds on that research
appointments to visit by using sensors to analyze “key outputs”
and give users insights on hydration and
a diagnostic lab—and their diets. Kohler’s smart toilet uses
then wait in lines and Amazon Alexa voice controls. Healthy.
io’s Velieve, a urinary tract infection test
wait even longer for re- kit, uses a mobile app to connect patients
sults—as a new crop of who have positive results with an online
technologies intends to doctor and sends a prescription to a
nearby pharmacy if needed. Healthy.io
The Toto Wellness Toilet can analyze your waste.
conduct scans at home. also partnered with the National Kidney
Foundation to offer an annual kidney test
kit to detect early disease.

Telemedicine
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT
Telemedicine had previously been offered Telemedicine unlocks new opportunities • Eko
Telemedicine isn’t a new only to people in difficult-to-reach for growth, not to mention easier access • Aluna
concept. The technol- locations, such as sparsely populated rural to health care and a chance to improve • Biofourmis
areas or the International Space Station.
ogy for facilitating and health equity. For example, telemedi-
• Current Health
Medicare restrictions limited remote vis- cine can address the rising challenges of
encrypting video con- its to patients who met certain criteria or provider workloads, hospital or clinic • Myia Health
sults has been available forced them to travel to approved centers space, and labor-intensive data entry. • Olive
for the video meetings. But telemedicine Remote visits reduce strain on facilities,
for years, but it repre- has since flourished. A study by nonprofit • Notable Health
while adjacent technologies (automated
sented a paradigm shift group FAIR Health showed a 4,347% medical transcription, fitness and health • Alpha Health
in the traditional doctor surge in telemedicine claims in the U.S. monitoring apps and wearables, at-home • Qventus
between March 2019 and March 2020. diagnostic tests) and machine learning
visit. COVID-19 forced The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid can optimize the speed and scope of
• Augmedix
an overnight change as Services also added 80 more services to be data collection. Clinics and hospitals can • Suki
delivered remotely and now allow pro-
lockdowns prevented viders to bill at the same rate as in-person
scale treatment without adding new staff • CloudMedx
resources and reduce hospital readmis- • Corti
health care providers visits. Artificial intelligence is part of tele- sion rates by remotely coordinating with
health’s evolution. Recognition technolo- • Butterfly Network
from seeing patients ex- home care providers.
gies for voice, emotion, gesture, posture, • Arterys
cept in cases of emer- and more can add to a doctor’s evaluation
gency. of a patient. AI can already detect wheth-
A young family consults with their doctor using er someone has a cold or is despondent,
a telemedicine app.
relative to their normal disposition.

A New Kind of Body Shop

Implanting technology in the human body for vari-
ous aesthetic and functional purposes has entered the
mainstream as a popular new form of self-expression.
Tech-focused body modification—called grinding when
performed DIY—emerges as a new market situated
somewhere between the decorative piercing industry and
the medical field. A new type of establishment begins to
appear in major cities to serve this subculture, a hybrid of
a walk-in neighborhood clinic and a tattoo shop. These
body shops have retail storefronts, but with enough
equipment, trained staff, and permits to allow them to
perform minimally invasive surgeries. The most popular
requests for implants? Magnets, RFID chips, glow-in-the-
dark shapes, and wireless data storage. Sounds pretty cool,
until you walk through your next metal detector.

Biometric Screening Systems

Office buildings, grocery stores, movie Biometric screening systems run up • Plott
In the wake of theaters, and health care facilities now against paradoxical regulations in the • FLIR Systems
COVID-19, schools, of- use temperature checks to screen for U.S. While the Health Insurance Porta-
COVID-19 symptoms, based on guidance bility and Accountability Act (HIPAA) • Electronic Frontier Foundation
fices, and even home- • Thermoteknix Systems
from the Centers for Disease Control requires companies to develop and follow
owners began using and Prevention. This year, Plott will procedures that ensure the confidenti- • Opgal
biometric scanning introduce the Ettie, a $300 video door- ality and security of protected health in-
• Mobotix
bell system that performs an automatic formation—meaning that workers would
systems to determine temperature check and displays it back need to consent to be scanned—custom- • Dahua Technology
whether someone is to the user. An LED panel will glow red ers and other members of the public
sick—and to grant or if a visitor has a fever, and the system are not covered under HIPAA (unless
will refuse her entry. Ettie can also be the owner of the camera is a health care
deny them entry. programmed to limit the capacity of en- provider). It’s not clear whether infrared
trants; when capacity is hit, the door will doorbells on private homes would be
not unlock (even if that person has been allowed under California’s Consumer
temperature-cleared). FLIR Systems, an Privacy Act. Laws in Illinois, Texas, and
infrared camera maker, sells FDA-cer- Washington now regulate the collection
tified cameras that can check workers of biometric data, including body scans.
in 10 seconds or less and focuses on tear
ducts, which tend to give a truer reading
of someone’s body temperature than the
New biometric screening systems use thermal forehead, which can be warmed by hats,
imaging to check temperatures.
hoods, and direct sunlight.

Big Tech Disrupts Health Care

Data scraped from Fitbit devices—steps Apple and a clinic for Apple employees,
Health care is the next taken, heart rate, hours of sleep, and started offering free genetic screening in
battleground for big other key metrics—lets Google make 2019. Facebook’s Preventive Health tool
recommendations and optimize consum- lets users set reminders for health screen-
tech companies. Ama-
er habits. It also opens a giant pool of ings and find nearby providers.
zon, Google, Apple, and data for research. Google and Ascension,
Facebook see health one of the largest health care systems in
the U.S., will build a robust search tool to
care as ripe for disrup- aggregate patient data—lab results, hos-
tion—and an industry pitalization records, vital statistics—and
where they can make house it under one system. The Apple
Watch Series 4 doubles as a medical
positive improvements. device, able to detect when someone
has a hard fall and to call 911; identify a
dangerous heart rhythm condition called
atrial fibrillation; and track menstrual
cycles, heart rate, and overall mobili-
ty. Apple’s Health Records, launched
in 2018, pulls data from other Apple
products to help patients and providers
see comprehensive data—medications,
Apple’s Health Records offers an alternative to traditional electronic health records. systems. lab results, immunizations—in one spot.
Meanwhile, AC Wellness, a subsidiary of

Big Tech Disrupts Health Care continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
The world’s largest tech companies are • Google Health VP Dr. David Feinberg
tackling the $3.6 trillion U.S. health • Google Senior Fellow Dr. Jeff Dean
care industry with initiatives spanning
basic scientific research and health care • Google Cloud
application research, revamping insur- • Apple Chief Operating Officer Jeff
ance, creating new clinics, and melding Williams
our data with their interactive devices. • AC Wellness
Google is a world leader in applying AI
to medical research—its automated breast • Facebook Head of Health Technology
cancer detection system already outper- Dr. Freddy Abnousi
forms oncologists. Pre-pandemic, health
and medicine inquiries made up 7% of all
Google searches. Google’s $2 billion Fitbit
purchase should spur more health care
innovation. Facebook’s preventive health
tool could influence health outcomes for
users by relying on the social media com-
pany’s standard notifications. Yet Ama-
zon’s plans are the most comprehensive
of all tech companies—and potentially the
most disruptive to the health care indus-
Amazon is among the big tech companies disrupting traditional health care. try. (See: Amazon’s Health Care Ambitions.)

Amazon’s Healthcare Ambitions

When Amazon acquired mail-order Data Analytics Online Pharmacy Personal Diagnostics Bottom Line
pharmacy PillPack in 2018, many thought Amazon Pharmacy offers online pre- Alexa now recognizes changes in individ- As Amazon continues to prioritize
Amazon Web Services (AWS) launched
it was just an extension of the company’s scription fulfillment and home delivery of ual voices, by detecting emotional states customers and their experiences, it poses
HealthLake, a health care analytics plat-
logistics and delivery business. If con- medications via the Amazon website or and other factors, such as whether some- an additional threat to traditional health
form that is HIPAA-eligible and works
sumers were already buying toilet paper mobile app. Amazon Prime members get one has a stuffy nose. Last year, Amazon care providers. In the U.S., customer
to standardize unstructured clinical data
at Amazon.com, why not blood pressure free two-day delivery, of course. There are launched Halo, its data-hungry health service throughout the health care value
for the cloud (solving a major pain point
medication? Those who intentionally now 118 million Prime members in the monitoring wristband. Halo measures chain—scheduling appointments, getting
for providers). HealthLake will make it
connected the dots between Amazon’s U.S.—if even 10% move their prescrip- body fat percentage, listens to the user’s lab results, standardizing medical records,
easier for Amazon to partner with more
different strategic initiatives saw a clearer, tions away from a traditional drugstore emotional state, and monitors heart rate billing, insurance—is notoriously bad.
health care providers and build its health
bolder picture of Amazon’s health care retailer (like a CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid, and other activity. One of the largest elec- Amazon stands to cut out middlemen
ecosystem.
ambitions—a massive disruption of health or a local pharmacy), it could cause serious tronic medical record companies, Cerner, that drive up health care costs. It could
care was already underway. Drug Development disruption to the $312 billion pharmacy said that Halo users will have the option transform the cadence of work, by creat-
In 2019, Amazon rebranded its acquisition Partnering with Accenture and Merck, and drugstore retailer market. to upload information collected by the ing instant medical records and offering
as PillPack by Amazon Pharmacy, which AWS created a cloud-based informatics device to their physicians’ Cerner health immediate diagnostic results.
launched in late 2020. Now patients can research platform to improve productivi- Medical Transcription record, beginning with the Sharp Health- For those who point to the dissolution
ask their doctors to send prescriptions ty, efficiency, and innovation in the early Care system in San Diego. Insurer John of Haven, Amazon’s joint venture with
Amazon Transcribe Medical is an auto-
directly to Amazon, which then ships stages of drug development. Hancock is partnering with Amazon to Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan
matic speech recognition service enabling
medications to consumers. This signals in- offer members a free Halo and three-year Chase, as a sign of trouble, note that the
providers to transcribe examinations and
teresting changes on the horizon. Because membership in exchange for data. collaboration resulted in Amazon making
Telemedicine other medical commentary in real time.
of its scale and reach, Amazon could force tremendous progress on its own Amazon
pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower Amazon Care, the company’s telemedicine Grocery Stores
Senior Care Care program.
drug costs, just as it pushed down the program, has been expanded to a broad
range of employees beyond its Seattle-fo- At Amazon Go grocery stores, shoppers
average prices of other product categories Last year, Amazon launched Care Hub,
cused beginnings. Early pitches of the select foods and pay using gestures or oth-
available on its retail site. a tool to assist caregivers in senior home
service to outside employers could start er biometric recognition. Shopping data
centers. One feature: If a senior says
Zooming out, there are many other ways is stored and can be correlated with other
to upend the current provider and insurer “Alexa, call for help,” it will automatically
in which Amazon will (or has already health data. Quantifying how many bags
market. ping the caregiver.
begun to) disrupt the entire health care of chips bought in a year—versus how
ecosystem, from drug development to many apples—could be an interesting data
insurance management. Here are just a point on a future personal health record.
few key areas of innovation:

These Walls Can Talk

When affordable smart home ecosystems first hit the
market, the appeal was clear: For a reasonable price, you
can equip most devices and systems in your home to
anticipate and accommodate your preferences, and carry
out your wishes in response to voice commands. But after
households grew to rely on these smart home technolo-
gies, they noticed their average yearly medical expenses
began to rise. As with much modern tech, if you’re not
paying much in dollars, you’re probably paying in data.
What had been marketed as domestic convenience turned
out to be a 24-hour monitoring system. Data about every
family member’s movements was captured and sold to
insurers and care providers, who used it to justify pen-
alties and rate hikes. A cigarette on the porch after the
kids are in bed? Your deductible just went up, as did your
monthly life insurance payment. Lifting the couch to
vacuum underneath? You just voided your prescription
for pain meds to treat last year’s back injury. Order a side
of cheesy fries with your dinner delivery? Coverage of
conditions related to obesity and heart disease now comes
at a premium. The whole setup brings new meaning to
the question, “Is there a doctor in the house?”

Chief Health Officers

In January, Delta Air Lines hired its first COVID-19 accelerated the visibility • Association of State and Territorial
Health is the state chief health officer, Dr. Henry Ting. He of CHOs. Royal Caribbean Group and Health Officials
of wellness—it’s the joined Delta from Mayo Clinic and will Viking River Cruises hired their first • Johns Hopkins Center for Health
now focus on health and well-being, CHOs last year, which makes sense: The
opposite of sickness. Security
safety, data strategies, and health-related cruise industry struggled to maintain
Companies are partnerships for the airline. Colleges and health and safety in the wake of the virus. • Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
of Public Health
beginning to add universities are adding CHOs to their Beyond the pandemic, CHOs are looking
executive cabinets to develop policies holistically at employee and customer • Amazon Halo
chief health officers and strategies that promote health and wellness. If people are healthy and safe,
to the C-suite, to wellness to students, faculty, and staff—in then they’re more productive—and as
direct strategy for the past two years, Bowling Green State consumers, potentially willing to spend
University and the University of Mich- more on products and services.
employee wellness igan have hired CHOs. The position is
and consumer health. also included in the org charts of IBM,
Apple, Amazon, and Google.
Previously, CHOs (as
well as chief medical
officers) were limited
to pharmaceutical
companies, hospitals,
In January, Delta Air Lines hired its first chief
health officer, Dr. Henry Ting, a medical leader medical systems, and
with deep and broad experience in patient care,
medical research, education, and management.
insurance companies.

High-Tech Concierge Care

Forward is a preventive health care Concierge medical practices first opened • The Lanby
Concierge care services membership that relies on advanced in the U.S. in the 1990s, and doctors • Forward
have gone high tech. technologies to diagnose and treat commanded annual fees of $10,000–
patients. Visits include biometric body $50,000 (and sometimes more) for 24/7 • Tia
Medical providers • Higi
scanning, a blood panel, genetic analy- access to care. Fees were out of reach for
are upgrading their sis, skin screening, and a mental health most, and this model incentivized slow, • mPort
membership models, assessment. Patients then download an personalized, ongoing care rather than
app, which is continuously connected to the fast, efficient visits only during times
which combine medical wearables, medical devices, and med- of need, which insurers prefer. A con-
care with tech-first ical records aggregated from previous cierge doctor could therefore maintain
wellness, personal data, caregivers. The Lanby, a medical and his existing salary by managing far fewer
wellness club, is slated to open in New patients.
and luxury hospitality. York City in fall 2021. For $3,500 annu- This next generation of concierge care
ally, members get a baseline assessment relies on home diagnostics, self-moni-
with a full physical and labs, a personal toring, and telemedicine, and that will
care plan, and monthly checkups, using allow providers to scale back up again to
telemedicine. These clubs could admin- service a large patient base and further
ister certain exams and treatments in an threaten the traditional business model
ultra-modern medi-spa ambience rather for health care.
than that of a clinic.
Forward is a concierge care system focused on

high-tech, evidence-based medicine.

Remote Patient Monitoring

The Cardea SOLO ECG System is a RPM uses digital technologies, the inter- • VitalConnect
Last year was a sudden wearable heart monitor that sends data net, and the cloud to collect medical data • Ascom
dress rehearsal for back to a monitoring center. Electrocar- from patients in one area and transmit
diogram data is analyzed and reports are it for assessment by providers working • G Medical Innovations
widespread remote • Gyant
generated within minutes to expedite a somewhere else. Lots of data—heart
patient monitoring diagnosis and treatment if necessary. The rate, electrocardiograms, blood pressure, • Huma
(RPM). Due to COVID-19 Zio patch from iRhythm Technologies is blood oxygen levels, kidney function, and
• Ejenta
a complete ambulatory cardiac monitor- more—can be mined and used to man-
lockdowns, the market ing solution. age cases off-site. RPM can keep older • CardiMo
for RPM technologies people out of nursing homes and reduce • Cardiac Insight
flourished, while the number of in-person visits to clinics
and hospitals. As the number of chronic • Rhythm Technologies
hospitals and health health conditions rises, RPM will gain a • 100Plus
systems launched new stronger foothold in health care.
• Neteera
ways of collecting data
and billing patients.
The Zio patch allows doctors to remotely

monitor patients.

Digital Transformation in Health Care

Investors poured $8.4 billion into global There is a push for standardized, open • General Catalyst
When it comes to digital health funding in just the third quarter of data in health care, and the largest • Geisinger
transformation, health 2020 alone— much of those dollars were providers are starting to see the value of
aimed at helping health care providers making their data interoperable. Dedi- • Epic
care has lagged behind • Accenture
cross the digital transom, according to cated cloud services, standardization of
most every major research firm CB Insights. Mayo Clinic data, robust electronic medical records • Alibaba’s AliHealth
industry, including retail, and Medically Home will provide hos- systems, encryption, and a host of med-
• Qualcomm
pital-level care to patients’ bedrooms, ical-grade consumer devices are forcing
banking, consumer performing lab tests, infusions, and the notoriously stodgy industry to evolve • Nokia
packaged goods, and remote monitoring while processing and adapt to the modern realities of tech-
even government. all of the needed data for patient and nology. Medicine’s regulatory minefield
hospital records, insurers, and govern- has so far prevented investment outside
Roughly 70% of U.S. ment agencies. Epic, one of the largest of a narrow field of innovations. That’s
hospitals still rely on U.S. medical records system providers, all starting to change, in part because of
will make its data more accessible from the big technology companies endeavor-
fax machines to move business to business. Its partnership with ing to disrupt the business.
patient records around. Nuance Communications’ voice recogni-
That makes the industry tion software platform will allow doctors
to send dictated notes to other medical
ripe for disruption—and specialists. It’s also experimenting with
attractive to startups ride hailing company Lyft to bring pa-
Health care has lagged behind in digital transfor- tients to hospitals.
mation, but that is changing. and investors alike.

Patient-Generated Health Data

From Google’s Fitbit, to Apple’s Watches Safely moving, storing, and making use • Validic
Patients are creating and AirPods, to household smart scales, of this data will require encryption. But • Apple’s Health Records
a trove of data that hundreds of devices can now collect there is also value in taking a fuller view
and monitor patients’ health. We also at the community, state, or even national • Amazon Transcribe Medical
could contribute • Salesforce
generate data at the doctor’s office, and level. Differential privacy measures will
to their health care under federal law, that data must be filed enable companies to anonymize a pa- • Google Health
provider’s overall health and stored electronically. The problem tient’s details while still making their data
• Meditech
is in aggregation. Because the data is useful to scientific researchers.
assessment. Packaging structured differently, an intermediary • Allscripts
all that data—and is needed to make practical use of it. • eClinicalWorks
figuring out how to The result: a new market for businesses
that can clean, structure, and package • Cerner
Validic uses mobile health APIs to access data

make use of it—is still a patient-generated health data. Software
from a host of devices and apps and make it challenge. from companies like Validic allows
usable with a patient’s EHR. doctors to collect this type of data and
incorporate it into their medical records.
This software uses mobile health APIs
to access data from devices and apps and
incorporate it with a patient’s electronic
health record (EHR). GE Healthcare,
Meditech, Allscripts, eClinicalWorks,
and Cerner are all building products to
make better use of our data.

Automatic Medical Transcribing

Amazon’s Transcribe Medical frees up To meet compliance regulations, a strict • AWS’s Amazon Transcribe Medical and
Dictating patient doctors’ time by transcribing doctor-pa- protocol must be followed when a third Amazon Comprehend Medical
notes is a core task in tient interactions directly into an elec- party transcribes sensitive doctor-patient • Nuance Communications
tronic record. Amazons Comprehend audio. But what if the transcription is
a clinical practice. But • Microsoft Azure’s Project EmpowerMD
Medical helps developers use unstruc- performed in real time? Not only would it
transcribing recordings tured medical text for diagnostic tools, be easier and more cost-effective in build- • IBM Watson’s Speech to Text
is a tedious process while AWS’s software integrates into ing patient records, an additional layer
devices and apps using an API. Micro- of machine learning could help doctors
that relies on excellent soft’s Project EmpowerMD partnered learn more about their patients during
sound quality and a with Nuance Communications to listen each visit.
good understanding of to conversations between doctors and
patients and automatically integrate
medical terminology— information from the patient’s EHR in
not to mention one that real-time. Built on Azure, it uses a rich set
of machine learning algorithms to tackle
requires confidentiality. natural language challenges and generate
Artificial intelligence a medical summary. Meanwhile Google
promises faster plans to leverage its speech recognition
for medical conversations.
transcriptions as well
as real-time diagnostic
Microsoft’s EmpowerMD listens to clinical conver-
sations between doctors and patients. analysis.

3D Printing in the ER

Hospitals across the country embrace 3D and 4D print-
ing. In partnership with medical product designers, 3D
printing technicians become critical to care ecosystems,
particularly in the emergency room. Rather than storing
a fixed inventory of equipment, hospitals use additive
manufacturing to produce items on demand ranging
from personal protective equipment and ventilator
components to stents and custom braces, and then break
them down or sterilize and recycle them when they’re
no longer needed. It’s all about efficiency, personaliza-
tion, and real-time response to the emergencies that
come through the doors. Ambulances and mobile hos-
pitals are equipped with printers, too, so that they can
treat patients during transport.

Smart Biohazard Wearables

The AirPop face mask protects against Between worsening environmental • Razer
At the height of the environmental and biological contam- pollution and the worldwide spread of • AirPop
COVID-19 pandemic, inants. A sensor embedded in the mask an airborne pathogen, the consumer
connects with a mobile app to analyze demand for medical-grade protection • Atmoblue
many people went • Production Club
the general air quality; it also displays from biohazards has grown significant-
in search of high- the pollutants blocked, whether or not ly. Expect an influx of investment in
quality masks that the filter needs to be cleaned, and per- response to that demand, with a focus
sonal breathing metrics. Razer’s Project on additional protective functionality,
would prevent viral Hazel is a surgical N95-grade mask with added data-capture tech, certification
transmission and also a clear face panel design, a microphone from medical institutions, and potential
collect air quality to help project your voice, and UV light partnerships to equip at-risk workforces.
disinfection that promises to kill bacteria.
data. But given the The Atmoblue, which launched as an
uptick in dangerous air IndieGogo project and raised 10 times
its initial funding goal, includes a smart,
quality due to wildfires wearable air purifier with HEPA filters
and pollution, smart and dual, high-speed centrifugal fans.
biohazard wearables
are attracting more
attention.
Production Club’s Micrashell is a smart biohazard
wearable designed for clubbing.

Cognitive and Neural Optimization

One key element of this trend is neuro- Halo Neuroscience makes a brain-stim-
Most cognitive training plasticity, or how well the brain adapts ulating headband for “neuropriming,”
programs are nothing and toggles speed and accuracy with the using electrical stimulation to increase
information it receives. Plasticity-based plasticity in the brain prior to an activity.
more than clever mem-
challenges form new neural pathways in The headband transmits weak electri-
ory games, but a new the brain, which can be later called upon cal pulses into the user’s brain with the
crop of technologies to process a greater range of stimuli. intent of enhancing the efficiency of
Reflexion promises to help people train physical training. Bitbrain Technologies
promises to optimize for speed and accuracy in competition, makes a training system for the brain to
neural function. Peo- which is why college athletic depart- accelerate information processing and
ple who engage in this ments and researchers at Pennsylvania improve concentration.
State University, Duke University, and
form of training report the U.S. Air Force Academy all use the
feeling quicker, sharper, platform. The cloud-based system has
a 55-inch touchscreen light board that
and more capable of comes with a series of visual exercise
sensing, parsing, and drills and analytics to track and strength-
acting on information. en brain fitness. It measures peripheral
vision, decision-making, reaction time,
and hand-eye coordination.
Bitbrain’s headsets optimize neural activity.

Cognitive and Neural Optimization continued
More data is needed to analyze the results • Halo Neuroscience

of neuro optimization devices, but there • Bitbrain Technologies
are now dozens of early and mid-stage
companies working in this space. Given • Reflexion
conclusive evidence that these systems
are able to significantly enhance cogni-
tive performance, we can expect to see
initial adoption in a range of competitive
fields—followed, in all likelihood, by
complex attempts to regulate the use of
the technology.
Cognitive and neural technologies promise to optimize brain function.

Metabolic Monitoring
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT
Two sisters with doctorates in physiolo- Metabolic monitoring is useful for • Breezing
Metabolism can be gy developed a metabolic monitor while athletes in training, hospital patients, • Cosmed
monitored using breath, training for an Iron Man competition to and people hoping to optimize how their
measure carbon dioxide using a Blue- • Lumen
and new devices use bodies use the food they eat.
• Pnoē
tooth sensor. Lumen is now a more com-
machine learning to prehensive automated metabolic monitor
determine the body’s that looks like a vape device and connects
to a mobile app, which provides recom-
metabolic rate in real mendations for training and meals.
time. The respiratory For serious athletes, the Pnoē Metabolic
exchange ratio, or RER, Analysis System offers measurements
of metabolic, heart, lung, and cellular
is the ratio of carbon function. After a baseline test, it creates
dioxide produced in personalized workouts and nutrition
metabolism and the plans, and recommends specific types
of exercises. Cosmed’s K5 is a wearable,
oxygen used, and portable metabolic system that tracks
indicates which fuel— exercise, heart rate, and stress.
carbohydrates or fats—
is being metabolized
Lumen determines whether fats or carbs are being
used for fuel. to supply the body with
energy.

Prescription-Strength Gaming
Early VR systems were intended to help It will take time for the long-term • Azure Kinect
While we often hear treat post-traumatic stress disorder. Now effectiveness of therapeutic gaming to be • Intel RealSense Depth Camera
research about the dynamic gaming experiences are being determined, but with promising initial
developed to treat attention deficit hyper- results, this field is due for growth. Ther- • MIT Media Lab
addictive nature of • EndeavorRx
activity disorder (ADHD) in children. In apeutic games could serve as the back-
video games, certain 2020, the Food and Drug Administration bone of telehealth for sufferers of chronic • Akili
types of games can approved EndeavorRx, a first-person illness or those under remote patient
• The Guardians: Unite the Realms
racing game developed by a neuroscientist monitoring. Games played in the home
have beneficial at the University of California–San Fran- would generate detailed patient data and
therapeutic effects. cisco that significantly improved clinical communicate it directly to the doctor,
Gaming has served markers of attention in patients with who would adjust treatment according-
ADHD. It looks like a kids video game, ly—all without requiring an office visit,
as a therapeutic tool but the stimuli target and activate the and neutralizing the bias of unreliable
extending all the way prefrontal cortex. As game play progress- self-reported patient data.
es, it adapts and personalizes treatment.
back to the beginnings Harvard University and Massachusetts
of virtual reality. Institute of Technology researchers devel-
oped The Guardians: Unite the Realms to
address behavioral-activation therapy for
depression. It serves to break rumination
loops and uses the same psychological
EndeavorRx is an FDA-approved game that tactics that mobile apps rely on to goad
treats ADHD.
people into spending more attention or
money—but instead uses the tactics to
improve moods and emotional states.
Digital Fitness and Training

In 2020, memberships to Peloton (the There are multiple intended settings • Peloton
The last few years connected bike and treadmill platform), for smart fitness equipment—amid the • Ultrahuman
saw the rise of smart surged 232% to $757.9 million. JaxJox pandemic, as individuals and families
• YogiFi
fitness equipment KettlebellConnect is a kettlebell set that invested in their own private spaces
• CLMBR
tracks performance using Bluetooth. and adapted to extended spells indoors,
including mirrors, bikes, Mirror is an interactive gym masquer- smart fitness equipment for the home • Sworkit
and treadmills. The ading as—wait for it—a full-length, saw a pronounced spike in demand.
• Oculus Quest 2
pandemic accelerated wall-mounted mirror. It has recorded or But as home equipment becomes more
live classes, and the smart mirror surface advanced and personalized, gyms and • Ergatta Rower
sales and helped helps you adjust your form. The Hydrow fitness centers will have to upgrade • Hydrow Rower
the market grow rower is a connected rowing machine their equipment to compete, especially • Samsung
significantly. with adjustable resistance levels and as home subscription plans undercut
• FightCamp Gym
prerecorded workouts. FightCamp Gym in-person membership rates.
is a punching bag that connects to classes • Mirror
on iOS devices. YogiFi Series-1 is a con- • Tonal
nected smart mat that tracks movements,
• JaxJox
offers haptic feedback, recommends
wellness programs, and includes aroma
diffusers. This year, Samsung announced
Smart Trainer, a device that offers
The EMStyle smart bodysuit and mobile app allow real-time feedback on exercise routines,
you to track your workouts through your phone. and Xenoma launched its e-skin EMStyle
bodysuit with 24 electrodes to stimulate
muscles and provide a full-body workout.
Sleep Tech
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT
The OOLER sleep system by ChiliS- • Somnox
We spend about a Sleep tech is a growing business, with a
leep automatically prechills the bed to flurry of connected blankets, wearable • ChiliSleep
third of our lives sleep- the user’s desired temperature using a monitors, and robots ready to optimize • Sunrise
ing. The average adult connected mattress cover and a connect- the hours people spend in bed. Sleep tech
• Beddr
ed weighted blanket, and then slowly is big business, too: By 2026, the market
needs between sev- increases the morning temperature for • Oura
size could be upward of $30 billion.
en and nine hours of natural waking—instead of a jarring
• Dreem
good quality sleep ev- alarm clock. The Somnox Sleep Robot is
an adaptive pillow to help people steady • Sana
ery night, according and deepen their breathing rate. The • Ebb Therapeutics
to Mayo Clinic—but a Sunrise sleep monitor tracks snoring and • Sleep.ai
variety of factors, rang- fitful sleeping—and can help diagnose
sleep apnea—using a small sensor that
ing from anxiety and fits on the chin, just under the mouth.
stress to noisy streets After a few nights’ sleep, the analysis goes
or a partner who snores directly to the user, avoiding a visit to a
sleep center. The Apollo Neuro, an ankle
can interrupt sleep cy- or wrist device, uses gentle vibrations to
cles. New technologies improve heart rate variability, resilience
promise to optimize to stress, and, ultimately, improved sleep.
Somnox’s robot simulates the feeling of sleeping
next to a parent. sleep, even in challeng-
ing circumstances.

Scent Diagnostics
Near-future neutral scenario

Augmented reality can change the way we see the world,
but it could just as easily change the way we smell it.
Health care reaches new levels of diagnostic precision
when wearables are integrated with enhanced olfactory
sensors. These hypersensitive wearables can “smell” the
first traces of a medical emergency or oncoming illness
before the patient realizes anything is wrong. This smart
“nosewear” can detect the early signs of a stroke, which
can affect the victim’s sense of smell, or subtle evidence of
diseases like Parkinson’s and malaria, which are shown to
be detectable by the sensitive noses of sniffer dogs. The
technology is now a key component of a doctor’s toolkit,
and a powerful detection tool in preventive care.

Wearables and Biointerfaces

It’s important to remember that the Companies should begin to develop • Withings
Consumers can cur- wearables market includes more than strategies for emerging wearable systems, • Ringly
rently choose among smart fitness bands and smartwatches. even if they are outside of the health
• Spire Health
more than 1,000 wear- There are devices for glucose monitor- and wellness space. Key questions to
ing, smart earphones that can amplify or ask include: How will your organization • Sony
able devices, including mute ambient sound, and even full-body interact with consumers via wearables? • Oculus
watches, earbuds, ad- haptic suits for athletic training and gam- How will consumer expectations change
• Athos
hesive and pocket-size ing. Wearables are gaining independent as a result of wearables? What is the
connectivity, meaning that a new gener- business case for wearables within your • Amazon
sensors, headbands, ation of devices will no longer need to be organization? • Harvard University’s Wyss Institute for
fabrics, and others. tethered to a smartphone or computer to Biologically Inspired Engineering
We are undergoing a see and report data, adjust settings, and • DARPA
archive information.
gradual transition from • University of Washington’s Center for
Neurotechnology
devices that we carry to
• Tufts University
devices that we wear.
• Robotics Institute at Beihang University
As price points become
• Samsung
lower and 5G networks
are built, wearable de-
The green light of functional fibers glows.
Image courtesy of AFFOA.
vices will enter the glob-
al mainstream.

Wearables and Biointerfaces Trends
Emerging Wearables then relays the information to a medical neurointerfaces are making big strides skeletons that use innovative textiles to
team or health care monitoring service. in this field. The hard exoskeletons used provide a more conformal, unobtrusive,
There are a lot of benefits: Rather than today will begin to morph into smaller and compliant means to interface to the
COVID-19 Sensors
moving into an assisted living facility or components and more adaptable designs. human body. Sarcos Robotics’s Guardian
The BioButton is an FDA-cleared, spending a lot of time in the hospital, cer- Researchers at the Robotics Institute at XO is a battery-powered suit intended for
medical-grade wearable designed to be tain patients can live in their own homes Beihang University are developing new construction sites, mines, and factories.
worn all the time. The device tells users while receiving virtual care. Cloud- lower-body gear that is lightweight and Built to enhance worker productivity, the
if they’ve been in contact with someone based systems allow for the continuous responds in real-time to the wearer. suits help people lift heavy loads—up to
who has COVID-19, and it also monitors transmission of your data and real-time Meanwhile scientists at Harvard Uni- 198 pounds—without back strain. Ekso
temperature and other vital statistics. Its analysis for issues like chronic disease (hy- versity’s Wyss Institute for Biologically Bionics, which develops medical-grade
personal screening system is housed in pertension, high blood pressure, asthma). Inspired Engineering are researching exoskeletons, created a vest intended to
single-use disposable patches that adhere This trend is still in very early stages and how to transition from soft exosuits to help workers more easily perform over-
to the skin. will be accelerated as 5G networks pro- implanted neural interfaces—think tiny head tasks.
liferate, since a more advanced network sensors worn beneath the skin—that will
Cloud-based Wireless Body Area will lead to less lag and could help secure someday help to control neuromuscular Wearable Air Conditioners
Networks personal data. activity to help people walk.
In Japan and China, workers who must
Wireless body area networks (WBANs) wear protective suits during the intense
communicate information from your Adaptive and Assistive Wearables Commercial Full-Body summer heat for years have worn tiny
wearable devices back to medical servers, Exoskeletons
By serving as replacements for human wearable fans to circulate generated air
Sony’s wearable air conditioner.
app manufacturers, and your home com- limbs, exoskeletons and soft exosuits You’ve seen them in movies like “Iron within their suits, while ventilation flaps
puter. Sensors, such as devices to monitor help enhance human mobility for the Man,” “Dave,” and “Avatar”: powered suits allow the warm body heat to escape. But
your heart rate or oxygen level, collect differently abled or for patients recover- that give average workers superhuman miniature, wearable air conditioners will
data and send it back to a central hub ing from traumatic injuries. Advanced abilities. Harvard’s Biodesign Lab is devel- soon be available to the average con-
(most often, your smartphone), which articulating mechanical systems and oping next-generation soft wearable exo- sumer. Sony developed the Reon Pocket,

which relies on the Peltier effect to move flexible sensors woven into self-heating haptic tactile sensations. In 2018, re-
heat between objects using electrical cur- gloves for the U.S. military. The startup searchers at Johns Hopkins University
rents. In place of a servo motor and fan, is also developing smart pajamas and created an electronic skin to help restore
this device is flat and embedded into an sleep-sensing masks, while others, in- a sense of touch to amputees. Dubbed
undershirt. Your mobile phone controls cluding a collaborative effort from Under “e-dermis,” it re-creates tactile sensations
the thermostat, cooling your body by 23 Armour and football superstar Tom (including pain) by sensing stimuli and
degrees Fahrenheit or heating it by 14 Brady, have developed sleepwear that sending the corresponding signal back
degrees Fahrenheit. emits infrared energy for faster muscle to the user’s peripheral nerves. Interdis-
recovery following a hard workout. Pivot ciplinary researchers at the Center for
Connected Fabrics Yoga makes connected yoga pants—you Wearable Sensors and the Center for
read that right—that monitor your Brain and Cognition at the University
Considering how much behavioral,
downward dogs and help you adjust your of California–San Diego are combining
biometric, and ambient data it could
form. The connected clothing syncs to an materials science and psychophysics to
potentially capture, our clothing has
app, and a digital assistant offers tips, such map exactly how humans perceive touch.
untapped potential as a sensory interface.
as rotating your left hip or moving your This research lays the groundwork for
In the past, connected clothing required
feet three inches back on the mat. Spire advanced prosthetics, and we’ve already
wires and sensors, making fabrics stiff or
Health makes a fabric coating for bras and seen some exciting developments. Neu-
uncomfortable. That’s starting to change,
underwear to help track breathing and roscientists at the University of Chicago
and it should bring more smart clothes
Electrodes and temperature sensors are directly printed and sintered on the skin surface. stress levels. are experimenting with touch-sensitive
to the masses. The Fibers@MIT research
Image courtesy: ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces. robotics and rhesus monkeys, which have
group is working on a fabric computer,
Touch-Sensitive Materials the most similar neural-sensory biology to
with architectures that allow fibers to
humans—they have successfully simulated
communicate with each other while re- Researchers are developing new pros-
the sensation of touch by stimulating cer-
taining the conventional qualities of cloth. thetic skins and limbs that restore not
tain areas of the brain. A team of scientists
Soliyarn is working on imperceptible, just movement but touch as well, through
from the Lausanne and Sant’Anna School

of Advanced Studies and the Agostino is a contributing factor to the decelerating bracelets offer a good alternative to more as a digital assistant. New iterations will launch AR glasses in 2021. Amazon’s Echo
Gemelli University Hospital developed a growth of the smartphone market contin- programming-intensive watch interfaces. track many personal metrics, including Frames debuted in 2020; for now, they
bionic hand that transmits a realistic sense ues to hold in 2021. cognitive activity and your engagement only offer Alexa audio functionality, but
of touch; it’s already in use, restoring Hearables and Earables patterns with other people, and be able to AR features are on the horizon. Apple’s
sensation to a woman who lost her hand Rings and Bracelets translate 27 languages in near real-time. glasses will work with the Watch and
In-ear computers, otherwise known as
in an accident 25 years ago. iPhone, but don’t yet have a launch date.
Amazon’s Halo smart wristband made earables, are here. The Noopl smartphone
headlines when it launched last year. attachment aims to enhance audio clarity Head Mounted Displays
Mature Wearables Smart Shoes
The device listens to your voice, tracks in noisy environments. The JBuds Frames Virtual reality is commonly experienced
and predicts mood, and optimizes calor- allow users to augment audio as they through wearable headsets, the next gen- Nike’s self-lacing Electric Adaptable Re-
Watches
ic intake and fitness. It also connects to wish, using a snap-on speaker device for eration of which will collect your biomet- action Lacing shoes adjust to the contours
Smartwatches offer a wide array of Amazon’s digital voice assistant, essen- glasses. Sony’s 360 Reality Audio uses ric data and other personal information of your feet. French insole manufacturer
functionality. They are digital wallets, tially making it a wearable Alexa. PayPal object-based spatial audio technology to in order to provide added functionality. Digitsole makes connected insoles that fit
diagnostic tools, fitness trackers, phones, has been researching its own connected enhance sound; setup requires that you These head-mounted displays could track inside the shoes of cyclists or runners and
and miniature screens on which to view ring for fast and easy payments without allow photos of your ears to be scanned your movements, pupil dilation, heart provide them with data feedback. They
texts and social media posts. Traditional digging around for a phone or credit card. and analyzed and stored on Sony’s servers. rate, and other biometrics, and use that can also keep your feet warm. Under
watchmakers and big tech giants now sell The Motiv and Oura rings track sleeping Apple’s AirPods team is working on data to curate your simulated environ- Armour makes connected running shoes
hundreds of different smartwatches. Some habits, while the ORII ring lets you make biometric sensors that will eventually ment in real time. (See: New Realities.) with foam soles that include an accel-
models, like the newest Apple Watch, no calls. Google completed its acquisition of monitor temperature, perspiration, and erometer, a gyroscope, a battery, and a
longer require a mobile phone for pairing; Fitbit in early 2021, potentially threaten- heart rate during exercise or sports. Star- Smart Glasses Bluetooth module. The shoes collect and
it can connect directly to cellular net- ing Apple’s domination in the watch markey’s Livio AI uses an array of sensors and store data, freeing you up for a tracked jog
works and can perform much of the same The world’s largest technology compa-
ket. Rings and bracelets aren’t meant as AI to modulate external sound—if you’re without your smartphone. They also set a
functionality as a smartphone. A model nies—Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft,
complete replacements for smartwatches, someone who complains that restau- baseline the first time you use them, and
built by the Future Today Institute in Facebook—are all working, in some way,
but for developers looking for single-task rants are too loud, this device promises then track your distance, stride length,
2016 showing that smartwatch adoption on connected devices that you wear over
application opportunities, rings and to help you hear better, and can also act and running cadence over time.
your eyes. Facebook and RayBan intend to

delivery tool. Scientists at the Institute for case, they showed how the materials
Smart Gloves Basic Science and Seoul National Uni- could be used during surgery. If nerves
In Kenya, a researcher invented smart versity in South Korea, the University of have been severed, doctors suture them
gloves that can translate sign language Texas at Austin, the University of Tokyo, back together and reawaken them using
into speech. The system, called Sign-IO, Stanford University, and the University of electrodes and gentle electrical stimula-
uses gesture recognition with sensors em- California–San Diego are all working on tion—but they typically don’t have enough
bedded in the gloves. Canadian research- electronic second skins. MC10 has already time in the operating room to provide
ers at Simon Fraser University designed a created microscopic, organic semiconduc- that restorative therapy beyond what
set of interconnected gloves to help trans- tors and carbon nanotubes that stretch would be minimally required. The team at
mit a sense of touch through the internet. and flex and can be powered wirelessly. Northwestern demonstrated how dis-
When someone moves her fingers in one The system, called BioStampRC, is far solved electrodes could be used to wire-
glove, her actions are sent to her partner thicker than a tattooable, but the idea is lessly transmit the electrical signal and
wearing the other. Sony has been filing the same—and it’s only a matter of time stimulate repaired nerves for several days,
patents for haptic glove controllers, which before the technology shrinks. which could cut recovery time in half.
would simulate the physical sensations of Once the therapy is finished, the materials
slicing, punching, and shooting. Dissolving Bioelectronics break down and are excreted. The study
was done in rats, but it shouldn’t be long
Biointerfaces For many people, implanted electronics
before we start to see clinical applications
are required to live a healthy life, but
in humans.
receiving the implants can require costly
Nanomesh Tattoos surgery, and devices sometimes need
Imagine wearing a temporary tattoo maintenance and replacement parts. In Nanobots
Amazon’s Halo is a fitness band with emotion detection.
rather than taking a handful of pills every 2018, scientists at Northwestern Univer- Tiny robots capable of delivering med-
day. Research is underway on nanomesh sity revealed new research on flexible, icine to a specific area of the body, or
technology as a diagnostic and drug dissolvable electronic materials. In one assisting with microsurgery, have arrived:

They can be steered and threaded, and that a surgeon could direct the swarm Smart Threads Skinput Systems
they can unfold to patch wounds, dislodge to assist with eye surgeries, for example, “Smart thread” uses electrical currents to Nearly a decade ago, Microsoft experi-
swallowed objects, perform biopsies, and and to deliver targeted medicines. In transmit information to doctors following mented with “skinput,” which turned a
deliver targeted medications. Research- 2019, researchers at the Massachusetts surgeries. Think of smart thread as a sort person’s arm and hand into an interactive
ers at the University of California–San Institute of Technology Department of of temporary smart system, stitched into interface. You could answer a call by
Diego showed how a nanobot, propelled Mechanical Engineering figured out how the skin, that connects to a smartphone tapping your fingers or skip a song on
by gas bubbles, could successfully deliver to create arrays of nanoscale magnets that or other medical device and reports on your playlist by pressing your palm. In
medicine inside of a live mouse with- respond to magnetic fields using a tech- your glucose levels, diagnoses an infec- the brand’s Hololens 2 extended reality
out causing injury. California Institute nique called electron-beam lithography, tion, and alerts hospital staff if your body headset, simple taps against your skin ac-
of Technology scientists developed an resulting in magnetically reconfigurable is chemically out of balance. Researchers tivate features. Google’s Project Soli, an-
autonomous, molecular robot, made of robots at scales of just a few micrometers. at Tufts University have successfully nounced in 2015 during the tech giant’s
a single strand of DNA, that treats the (For comparison, a strand of hair is about embedded nanoscale sensors and elec- I/O developer conference, is a miniature
inside of the human body like a distribu- 100 to 150 micrometers wide.) In one tronics into surgical thread that can be radar that understands human motions at
tion warehouse. The nanobot can walk instance, they made a microscopic bird- used for suturing. At the University of various scales, from the tap of your finger
around, pick up molecules, and deposit like structure that could flap its wings and California–Berkeley’s School of Infor- to the movements of your body. Since
them in designated locations. In 2018, move as directed. This could someday mation, researchers are experimenting then, Google’s ATAP (Advanced Tech-
scientists at the Chinese University of allow surgeons to perform operations on with smart threads that can change color. nology and Projects) division has been
Hong Kong unveiled a new way to use individual blood vessels or to manipulate These nonsurgical threads are coated with advancing that skinput idea: In 2018, the
nanobots within the body. Millions of single cells. The grand hope with all of thermochromic paint that changes color Federal Communications Commision
CuteCircuit’s shirt lets people feel music and receive tiny, magnetic shape-shifting nanopar- these technologies is that nanobots will when jolted with electricity. Smart thread approved its proposed tests of a new
virtual hugs. ticles can extend, merge, and collaborate replace one-size-fits-most medications is just emerging from experimentation, chip that uses radar to track micromo-
in a swarm. In practical terms, this means and therapies, and treat uniquely specific but initial test results show that it can be tions. We’re already transitioning from
ailments without causing side effects. successfully used as a diagnostic device. physical to digital buttons; soon skinput
may teach consumers to live without any
buttons at all.

Brain Machine Interfaces

Elon Musk hopes to someday outfit us Much of the research to date has fo- • Neuralink
Computer scientist with small, wearable computers with cused on rehabilitation. With these • Neurable
Jacques J. Vidal was threads extending directly into our brains. human-machine interfaces, people can
Last year, Musk’s Neuralink tracked a pig’s • BIOS
the first to talk about communicate via thought alone, which
• NeuroScouting
brain activity using implanted sensors, promises new options for those suffering
“brain machine in- and the Food and Drug Administration from stroke, paralysis, and aphasia. But • NeuroPace
terfaces” in the early granted the company a breakthrough research is going even further than that:
• MindMaze
device authorization to move quickly on Facebook has been working on several
1970s, and since then its human research. In 2019, Neuralink • NextMind
BMI projects, including a noninvasive
the term has grown to built a robot to implant tiny, ultrathin headband that would read thoughts be- • Bitbrain Technologies
encapsulate a range of threads deep into the brain—a step closer
fore we say them aloud. In a partnership • Boston Scientific
to complex brain-machine interfaces. The
technologies that serve with the University of California–San
Pentagon has its own body mass index • Oculus
Francisco, researchers used sheets of
as interfaces between projects that use both threads and pulsat-
electrodes placed on the brains of vol-
ing lights. Kernel intends to measure and
the brain and the out- stimulate the electrical impulses of neu-
unteer test subjects to see how much of
side world. Researchers their thoughts could be read. The social
rons. Synchron’s implantable device the
Stentrode aims to give paralyzed patients media juggernaut, which also owns VR
are finding new ways company Oculus, is working toward a
direct brain control of mobility-assistive
to connect humans and devices. Neurable is working to let people headset that might someday allow us
other mammals directly use brain activity to control software and to control music or VR environments
In 2020, Elon Musk demonstrated a plan to create devices, and NextMind raised $4.6 million simply by thinking.
a working brain-to-machine interface with a work- to computers—and hu- to create noninvasive brain command tech
ing prototype implanted in pigs.
mans to one another. for gamers.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
The Post-Pandemic Both will require disruption in our

way of thinking, creative partner-
Optimistic Future: ships with entities that have not
worked together to create new
From COVID to ecosystems, and the use of aug-
Consumerism mented intelligence and other new

technologies that may be game
changers if constructed properly.
Stephen K. Klasko, M.D., M.B.A. Many have theorized that the

increased use of telehealth during
President and CEO,
the COVID-19 pandemic will be-
Thomas Jefferson University and
come the “iPhone moment” for
Jefferson Health
healthcare, where finally health-
Distinguished Fellow, care joins the consumer revolution
World Economic Forum by bringing care to the home and
we begin to build “healthcare at
any address.”
I’m convinced the globe faces two But there’s a twist: We have to en-
existential threats that demand sure that the shift to mobile, digital
disruption of our businesses, our healthcare is ethical, equitable,
policies and indeed our lifestyles: and sustainable.
climate change and health assur-
ance for all. Just as climate change cannot
be solved by the energy industry

alone, health assurance cannot be Here’s my framework for equitable 3. Intellectual property is the
solved by the healthcare delivery and sustainable models of change: new gold, not data.
industry alone. The fourth indus-
Just as climate change trial revolution can be defined in 1. Start with ethics. We must understand how IP
is derived from the personal
cannot be solved by the a pretty non-threatening way. It’s Trust is more important than data of our patients, and create
technology. Ethics must be
energy industry alone, the blurring of boundaries between bright lines for enhanced con-
the digital, physical, and biological injected into product develop- sent in the use of this data.
health assurance worlds. It’s a fusion of advances in ment at the very earliest stage,
cannot be solved by artificial intelligence, robotics, the when values are being assessed. 4. Never forget the human in
internet of things, genetic engi- Do not wait until a product is
the healthcare delivery neering, quantum computing, 5G, ready for market and then ask
the middle.
As online meets offline (OMO),
industry alone. and the kitchen sink of exciting new marketing to make it trustworthy.
the excitement tends to focus
technologies that will blossom in
2. Reach across industry. on the technology. But what’s
the next decade.
equally important is focusing on
We talk and plan in silos, but humans, on new roles for clini-
The impact of a digital economy on health assurance only comes
healthcare will be immense, and I cians in the OMO world, on new
when our industry talks with services for patients. And on
am hopeful that in a few years we those involved in food, transpor-
will not just be talking about the what I call health assurance, by
tation, education, policy, and constructing a system where the
technology of self-driving cars, but the creation of jobs. We need
also about how we can use these primary goal is a healthy and
to move social determinants happy life for all.
technologies to create “self-healing of health to the mainstream of
humans.” clinical operations and global
payment models.

5. Perhaps, most importantly, **

there is no such thing as “non-
disruptive” disruption. Dr. Stephen Klasko is an advocate
I am hopeful that in a for transformation in healthcare
few years we will not Disruption, by definition, will and higher education. As President
be painful to those who don’t and CEO of Philadelphia-based
just be talking about want to think differently as new Thomas Jefferson University and
the technology of self- ecosystems are built.
Jefferson Health since 2013, he has
driving cars, but also If we are to globally move from
led one of the U.S.’s fastest growing
academic health institutions based
about how we can use sick care to health assurance and
on his vision of the future of higher
bring health into homes and neigh-
these technologies to education. In 2020, he was named
borhoods, the home should be
create ‘self-healing the locus of care delivery. It’s time the first Distinguished Fellow of
the World Economic Forum. This
humans. ’ to strip from hospitals everything
that can be done in an outpatient year he published Un-Healthcare:
setting, leaving hospitals as the A Manifesto for Health Assurance,
location for the very sick and for with Hemant Taneja, as well as the
very complicated therapy. This textbook, Patient No Longer: Why
healthcare “revolution” will require Healthcare Must Deliver the Care
passionate leaders advocating Experience that Consumers Want
for change—in essence, an army and Expect.
of Greta Thunbergs! Let’s hope
the once-in-a-century COVID-19
pandemic of 2020 heralds a new
century of global health assurance
starting in 2021.

Application
For chief strategy officers working in For those working in the health tech As excitement grows for health tech, Data collected from health tech and
health care systems, hospitals, insur- space, this is an incredible time. As corporate R&D teams will be pushed wearables is valuable, and the industry
ance, and the pharmaceutical industry, wearable devices reach the main- to productize their work. Unfortunately, is a target. In 2020, there were numer-
decisions must be made about the stream, consumers are looking for there has historically been too much ous cyberattacks on hospital systems.
longer-term direction of organizations actionable insights. They are also more emphasis on “D,” without enough on Mercifully, the devices people rely
given the staggering pace of innova- health-conscious in the wake of the “R.” In 2021, teams will be confronted on—pacemakers, insulin pumps—ha-
tion coming from external disruptors. pandemic. Additional factors include with antsy boards of directors and en- ven’t been hit with attacks. Chief risk
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the rollout of 5G networks and relaxed thusiastic chief marketing officers who management officers and those who
private equity and venture capital rules on telemedicine and patient re- want to see next-generation health work in risk-related positions can play
investment in a number of different cord sharing. Innovation teams can de- tech in the marketplace. R&D teams a critical role in making sure that not
areas, from biometric monitoring to velop their visions for the future, using can mitigate the need for speed right only are devices safe, but the ancillary
remote patient care. CSOs should pay signals and trends to develop plausible now by working together with product systems that collect and distribute data
special attention to the big tech com- scenarios. From this work might come and marketing teams on their expecta- are encrypted and secure.
panies as potential sources of opportu- new products, changes in strategic tions and road maps.
nity and risk. Now is the time to develop direction, or future business models.
a long-term strategy for your organiza-
tion’s evolution.


should begin by asking these questions about the futures
of health care, medicine, and wearables:
1 2 3
Is our company tracking What parts of our Are our digital
?
disruptions outside of our business make us a transformation efforts
immediate industry? target for disruption? keeping pace with
the changes in health,
What does the Amazon How could new
medical, and wearable
Pharmacy case study tell business models
technologies?
us about our business? introduced by new
entrants pose a threat? What assumptions must
How will we make

needed changes?

Selected Sources
https://www.nature.com/articles/ https://covid19researchdatabase.org/
s41551-020-0534-9#auth-1
Mantrawadi, M. et al. (2020). Wear-

https://www.beckershospitalreview.
able device with field replaceable
com/consumerism/41-of-gen-z-and-
band. (U.S. Patent Application No.
one-third-of-millennials-prefer-digital-
20200289001). U.S. Patent and Trade-
encounters-with-physicians-over-in-
mark Office.
person-visits.html
https://www.ehrn.org/articles/ Graham, D. et al. (2021). Intelligent

telehealth-fad-or-the-future/ automated assistant for media explo-
ration. (U.S. Patent No. 10,909,171). U.S.
Patent and Trademark Office.
https://www.gminsights.com/
industry-analysis/sleep-tech-devic-
es-market
Wicksell, M. et al. (2020). Storage
compartment vehicles. (U.S. Patent No.
https://aspe.hhs.gov/pdf-report/ 10,538,190). U.S. Patent and Trademark
medicare-beneficiary-use-telehealth Office.
https://www.aha.org/factsheet/
telehealth
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/
NEJMsb1905390

Volume 6 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Home
Report
Automation
Consumer
Strategic trends that will influence business, Electronics
in the coming year.
Home Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
239 Summary
240 GAA Homes
241 Home Service Bots
242 Scenario: GAA Homes and
America’s Digital Caste System
244 Disinfecting Bots
245 Digital Emissions
246 Retrofitting Old Homes
With New Technology
247 Scenario: Regenerative
Infrastructure
248 Forced Obsolescence
249 Smart Kitchens
250 Smart Home Gyms
251 Pricing the Curb
252 Securing the HOT
(Home of Things)
253 Scenario: When Smart
Homes Go Dumb
254 Neighborhood Mesh Networks
255 Rollable Screens
256 Application
257 Key Questions
258 Sources
Home Automation
Home + The Home of Things (HoT) industry + Artificial intelligence helps moni-
Automation
is growing, with demand driven tor and mitigate the HoT’s digital
by working, exercising, and learn- emissions and reduce the smart
ing from home. home’s carbon footprint.
+ Homes are becoming sentient: + Google, Amazon, and Apple are

Automated systems sense and the primary HoT platforms, but
& Consumer
adjust temperature, sound, light, their ecosystems aren’t always
and other functions in real time interoperable.
to support families.
+ Rollables are the new foldables:
+ But the HoT is notorious for se- Screens that unfurl and retract
curity vulnerabilities. Hackers will change the form factor of
Electronics
increasingly target HoT devices many consumer electronics.
with botnets and malware at-
tacks.
+ Neighborhood mesh networks

connect clusters of smart homes
Summary
to one another. Within the mesh,
homes share Wi-Fi, and residents
can stay connected to their de-
vices when outside. If a resident
loses her keys while running, she
can ping the network to find their
exact location on the street.

Home Automation
Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
GAA Homes
As prices have dropped for connected Devices across ecosystems aren’t always • Samsung’s SmartThings
Despite the prolifer- home appliances and peripherals, con- interoperable. A Google speaker won’t • Google Developers
ation of smart home sumer sales have soared for smart devices. interact with devices running on Ama-
Devices that work with platforms created zon’s smart home platform, for example. • Apple Developers
devices, only a few plat- • Zigbee Alliance
by Google, Amazon, and Apple (we’ll While savvy users can buy smart cam-
forms can connect them call them the GAA) are ubiquitous and eras that run on open source tools, the • Dotdot
all together. increasingly affordable—because a smart average family needs to choose one of
home offers rich streams of data that can the GAA. The three companies joined
Amazon’s ecosystem encompasses thousands be monetized. In China, Alibaba, Xiaomi, the Zigbee Alliance to create and en-
of devices.
and Baidu are the predominant provid- force standards for wireless networking
ers. The GAA aim to create a seamless protocols used by low-power radios in
experience among the devices in their smart home gadgets and appliances. Still,
ecosystems. Amazon’s smart electrical that doesn’t mean Google products will
plugs; lightbulbs; Fire TV Cube; Ring connect with Amazon’s, which effectively
doorbell, smart door locks, thermostats, means we’re Google, Apple, or Amazon
and security cameras; and Alexa speakers families.
can together control many of a home’s ev-
eryday functions. Similarly, Google Home
connects to thousands of devices. Telecom
firms hoping to create high-margin busi-
nesses, rather than act as dumb connec-
tivity pipes, increasingly seek partnerships
with the GAA.

Home Automation
Home Service Bots

The 1980s-era home service robot the Samsung calls its Bot Handy an “ex- • Savioke
Service robots automat- Omnibot 2000, by Japanese toy manufac- tension of you” anywhere you need a • Neato Robotics
ically perform repetitive turer Tomy, wasn’t a commercial suc- hand in the home. Still in development,
cess, but it was useful: It could play back this slender, autonomous bot picks up • Trifo
tasks around the home.
prerecorded sequences on cassette tape, it laundry, brings you drinks, and loads the
could roll into your room and wake you dishwasher. Bot Care aims to be a per-
at a designated time, and it carried light sonal assistant. While humanoid robots,
objects with articulated claw hands or such as the XR-1 from CloudMinds, are
a tray. Fast-forward to 2021, and home built as all-purpose automated butlers,
service bots are finding a new audience. most service bots are smaller, lightweight
Samsung’s JetBot 90AI+ is a robot vacuum and intended to perform single func-
with lidar, a 3D sensor, a built-in camera, tions. As their functionality improves,
Samsung is making a robot that will pour you and computer vision that allows it to service bots will reshape house cleaning,
a glass of wine.
avoid objects and double as a roaming se- which could have downstream effects
curity system. Larger wheels let it maneu- on companies that make analog clean-
ver over door thresholds and thicker rugs, ing supplies (paper products, sponges,
and it has an automatic disposal system. and sprays). The next wave of bots will
The Gladwell Gecko Robot is an auto- include automated clothing cleaners and
mated glass and window cleaner. iRobot’s laundry folders, and service bots that use
Looj device cleans your gutters, and The computer vision to make beds.
Landroid L 20V from tools innovation
company Worx is like a Roomba for the
yard: It automatically mows the lawn in a
desired pattern.

Home Automation
GAA Homes and America’s Digital Caste System

In the year 2035, Apple households tend to be ry home to interact with AI-powered appliance microwave, which includes a voice interface. measure, they are far superior to any public
wealthier and older. They can afford Apple’s screens and connected frozen daiquiri makers. Users could put a bag of popcorn in the micro- housing ever provided through our previous
sleek, beautiful hardware products available in Google’s system is less intuitive, but it makes wave and ask Alexa to pop it. Tech journalists government programs. Amazon Homes are
one of three colors: palladium silvery-white, os- better use of our data—and it offers different wrote the microwave off as a novel, silly use outfitted with connected devices in every room.
mium gray, or dark onyx. Apple’s smart glasses, levels of service and access. For those who can for Alexa, and missed the bigger picture: The The former Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
smart toilets, and custom refrigerators carry on afford the upgrade fees and have enough tech system was actually designed to get us hooked Program (previously known as the Food Stamp
its long tradition of pricey products anyone can savvy, Google Green gives families the ability on subscription popcorn. That’s because the mi- Program) is currently hosted by Amazon, which
use right out of the box. Its system comes with to manually unlock their systems, and they can crowave tracks both what we’re heating up and provides steeply discounted Amazon-branded
spoken interfaces and a choice of two soothing connect a greater variety of things—such as what we’re ordering on the Amazon platform. household products, food and drink, toiletries,
voices, Joost (who has a “unisex higher tone”) coffee makers and outdoor irrigation systems— A new box arrives before you ever have the and books. Unsurprisingly, this program works
or Deva (who has a “unisex lower tone”). But to their homes. Green families can also opt out chance to run out. seamlessly. There are never delays in funds
convenience comes with a cost. Apple’s artificial of being served advertisements, though their Because Amazon was the smartest in its being distributed, it’s easy to look up the status
intelligence (AI) cannot be overwritten. In an data is still collected and sent to third parties. approach with federal, state, and local gov- of an account, and all transactions can be com-
Apple home running the air conditioner, you Google Blue is an affordable option with lim- ernments—offering them deep discounts at pleted without ever having to wait in a long line
can’t open the door for more than a minute ited unlocking privileges and some additional Amazon.com, patiently working through at a government office. Those living in Amazon
or the system will start beeping incessantly. If permissions—and plenty of ads. Google Yellow procurement requirements, and building and Homes must buy most of their things through
there’s sufficient daylight detected by the sen- is the lowest tier. It’s free but comes with no maintaining cloud services specifically for Amazon while their data is scraped, produc-
sors in your light bulbs, the Apple system keeps override abilities, a small selection of available them—it became the preferred platform for tized, and monetized for various initiatives.
the light switch on lockdown. devices and appliances, and offers limited data certain social services in the United States. That Amazon’s AIs are the most pervasive, following
We saw a preview of Google’s connected home protections. is how Amazon discovered how to leverage the Amazon families everywhere they go to collect
decades ago at the 2018 South By Southwest Amazon went in an interesting, but ultimate- long tail of government funding. valuable behavioral data.
Festival in Austin, Texas. Back then, the tagline ly smarter, direction. A few announcements Low-income families now live in Amazon The lack of interoperability between AI frame-
was “Make Google do it,” and attractive spokes- Amazon made in the fall of 2018 went largely Housing, which has replaced city-funded public works and systems led to segregation by our
models took small groups around the three-sto- unnoticed, like the launch of its AmazonBasics housing programs in the United States. By every data and household, and that is why we now

Home Automation
GAA Homes and America’s Digital Caste System

have a digital caste system. By choosing Google, scheme, and it drives along the rider’s preferred an Amazon Housing customer hasn’t had her
Apple, or Amazon, you are forced to align your routes. Yellows are subjected to advertising exercise that day, the Locker system will decide
family values with the values of the corpora- their entire trip. to keep the freezer closed and won’t let her eat
tion. Apple families are rich, maybe a little less Advertising isn’t the only headache for Yellow ice cream.
AI-savvy, and live in fancy houses. Google fam- Googlers. One downside to all the subsidized It’s not impossible to intermarry—occasionally
ilies might be rich and techy, or middle class and (or free) gadgets, appliances, and gear offered an Amazon will marry into an Apple family—
fine with marketing, or complacent with not to Google Blue, Google Yellow, and Amazon but that old adage “opposites attract” no longer
having a lot of choices in life. There is no way to families is that it’s impossible to disconnect the applies. All of our AI-powered dating services
sugarcoat Amazon families: They’re poor, even AI health and wellness minders, which contin- now match us based on our data. On the one
if they have free access to cool gadgets. ually monitor, diagnose, and nudge. A failure to hand, we no longer suffer under the tyranny of
Families are locked into their de-facto home comply with health and wellness minders results choice since dating AIs have drastically reduced
operating systems, and that designation travels in a litany of consequences. the selection of possible suitors. Yet some
with them. It’s easier for a Google Yellow family Remember those Amazon Lockers you used choices that once made us uniquely human—like
to port into the Blue or even Green level than it many years ago to pick up all the things you May-December romances or dating someone
is for an Amazon family to port into the Apple ordered on the Amazon app and Amazon.com? our parents don’t approve of—are less available
system. That’s why most families opted in to They made their way into Amazon Housing. to us now. In America, society is beginning to
Google when they had the opportunity. Your Leaders in the U.S. Health and Human Services feel uncomfortably Huxleian, as we acquiesce,
status is visible to all of the AIs you interact Department thought nudging poor people was get married, and have babies with our fellow
with. Self-driving taxi services like Lyft, Uber, a clever way to improve health and wellness, so Apples, or Google Blues, or Amazons.
and CitiCar don’t pick up Amazon riders with the department issued new policies requiring
as much frequency, and cars sent to them tend all public housing customers to be outfitted
not to be as nice. Waymo cars exclusively pick with Locker technology. The Lockers may look
up Googlers. For Greens, the car is preset to the like ordinary pantries, refrigerator doors, and
rider’s desired temperature and ambient lighting closets, but they act like AI-powered juries. If

Home Automation
Disinfecting Bots
The CLOi autonomous robot from LG While some hospitals and office build- • LG Electronics
The pandemic result- Electronics looks like a narrow space ings experimented with disinfecting • Xenex
ed in an explosion of heater on wheels. It uses ultraviolet light robots pre-Covid, they hit the main-
to disinfect high-touch, high-traffic stream amid continued lockdowns and • Prescientx
COVID-19 tech: devices • UBTech Robotics
areas in retail, hospitality, and corporate fears about the spreading virus. Demand
and gadgets intended settings. There are three types of UV for UV robots is growing in schools, • MIT Computer Science & Artificial
to help people mitigate radiation (UVA, UVB, and UVC), and LG health care facilities, offices, and indus- Intelligence Lab
will use UVC, which is approved by the trial settings, especially as prices fall.
the harms of the virus. U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Sales of disinfecting robots may hit $2.3
Robots capable of ster- disinfecting nonporous surfaces, water, billion by 2025, up from $341 million in
ilization and disinfect- and air. Signify, which makes LED light- 2019, according to market advisory firm
ing systems, developed a desk lamp that Mordor Intelligence.
ing, once used only in disinfects nearby surfaces when turned on.
hospitals, are making Xenex Disinfection Services makes robots
that attack deadly pathogens with pulsing,
their way into our offic- high-energy, broad-spectrum UV light.
es and homes.
Virus-zapping CLOi robot is the first of a number
of autonomous droids LG plans to market in the
United States in 2021.

Home Automation
Digital Emissions
The internet’s data is invisible, but it As smart homes proliferate, companies • Nokia
Collectively, our homes requires physical data centers around the will continue to work to cut digital • Ericsson
are starting to pro- world that must be powered on, cooled, emissions. In 2009, Google opened a data
and protected 24 hours a day, seven days • Firefox’s address bar
duce digital emissions. center in chilly Hamina, Finland, to cut
• DigiPlex
a week. The actual energy used when energy use. The act of cooling IT equip-
Everything we do on- you read a Reddit post or order more ment eats up about 40% of the energy • ICTFootprint.eu
line—sending an email, toilet paper is extremely small; only a required by data centers. Now, Google
few grams of carbon dioxide are emitted will invest in additional cold-climate
hosting a Zoom call— each time. But consider the scale: Bil- data centers. Google also uses high-tech
requires energy, and lions of people every day each complete evaporative cooling, smart temperature
each of those digital dozens (or hundreds) of actions online.
controls, and machine learning systems
The carbon footprint of our devices, the
to automatically adjust energy consump- If every adult in the
actions leads to carbon internet, and the data centers we require
dioxide emissions. account for 1.4% to 3.2% of our global
tion. Mozilla Firefox’s Enhanced Track- United States sent
ing Protection blocks third-party trackers
greenhouse gasses.
while cutting energy usage when you’re
one less email a year,
online. It also employs search recycling: we could save 51,560
If you type in the search bar to navigate
to a site, it requires data processing and
tons of CO2—the
energy consumption. Using autocom- equivalent of taking
plete, rather than manually typing, to
Data centers are responsible for CO2 emissions. navigate back to your intended destina-
11,217 gas-powered
tion means zero carbon searching. cars off the road.

Home Automation
Retrofitting Old Homes With New Technology

You may already be living in the home The more technologies built into smart • Amazon Alexa
As smart home devices of the future. Retrofitting the walls with home systems and appliances, the more • Google Home
become more ubiqui- conduit and cables, embedding surfaces potential for things to go wrong—which
with sensors, and deploying connect- means that in the near future, we should • Samsung SmartThings Hub
tous and affordable, • HomeOS
ed appliances and gadgets are ways to see new consumer demand for smart
people are working to modernize existing homes, with results home repairs and for service companies
retrofit old homes with leading to improved energy efficiency, with knowledge of how devices connect
automation of everyday tasks, and new to the home network and to each other.
new technologies. insights from the data your household For now, many systems require a strong
generates. In the U.S., buying and ret- cabled internet system to work proper-
rofitting an older home can be more ly. That could change as 5G networks
affordable than building a new one. become more prevalent, enabling smart
home technologies to work wirelessly
without latency issues.
Smart home technologies, like automatic thermo-

stats, can offer older homes new upgrades.

Home Automation
Regenerative Infrastructure

Our city infrastructure has been updated and recon-
structed with self-repairing materials, transforming the
environments we inhabit. These materials are developed
by training algorithms to iterate millions of combinations
of periodic elements, targeting specific qualities such as
conductivity, elasticity, and stability, and enhancing the
resulting materials with electrical charges, sensors, and
enzymes created with synthetic biology. This tech has
created concrete that seals its own cracks, glass that reas-
sembles when shattered, and metals that detect and coun-
teract corrosion. Self-repairing materials have changed
how architects design buildings and how governments
engage in city planning, especially since any structures
built with the materials are likely to endure for far longer
than traditional infrastructure. That said, new construc-
tion projects ranging from homes to highways must be
planned with extra caution and care, as the results—in-
cluding the harms or benefits they cause to society—could
plausibly survive for centuries.

Home Automation
Forced Obsolescence
The idea of forced obsolescence is nearly Consumer activists in the European • U.S. Federal Trade Commission
Appliance manufactur- a century old. It was first written about Union and the United States have mount- • The Repair Association
ers build products with by Justus George Frederick, an early ed legal action. Dubbed the “right to
marketer who argued in favor of inducing repair,” proposed laws would force manu- • Coalition for Safe and Secure Data
intentionally limited • U.S. Public Interest Research Group
“people to buy an ever-increasing variety facturers to allow repairs, interchangeable
lifespans, forcing con- of things, not in order to use them but to parts, and common standards. • UFC-Que Choisir
sumers to throw away activate commerce and discard them after As more smart home appliances become
a short period of time.” A decade ago, available, we anticipate arbitrary technical
old products and con- companies that made printers tweaked barriers to making those devices work
tinually buy new ones. their technology to prevent the use of over long periods of time. What’s more,
generic ink cartridges. Makers of con- by forcibly bricking our devices every few
nected home appliances and devices are years, companies are creating mountains
following suit. A few years ago, General of waste that will cause future environ-
Electric required its refrigerator water fil- mental damage. This raises thorny ques-
ters to use only replacements that include tions about how hardware and software
RFID chips. If you don’t buy one from interact and how companies can respon-
GE, which is substantially more expensive sibly sunset their products. For example,
than filters made by other companies, you if a company retires an operating system
don’t get water. Game consoles, mobile for its smart refrigerator, should consum-
On the HBO series “Silicon Valley,” Jian-Yang retro-
fitted the refrigerator with a password and comput-
phones, e-readers, microwaves, refrigera- ers still be allowed to continue to use the
er vision. (We’re pretty sure it broke the warranty.) tors, washing machines, and even hospital refrigerator function to keep their food
ventilators are designed to limit repairs. and drinks chilled? If not, they’d have to
throw it away.

Home Automation
Smart Kitchens
The Innit platform, launched in 2013, We are particularly interested in Am- • Samsung’s Digital Appliance
For the past decade, helps kitchen appliances talk to one azon’s approach to the kitchen because Design Team & Lifestyle Labs
researchers have been another, even those from several dif- of the company’s foray into groceries, • Google’s Design Lab
ferent brands. In 2019, Innit partnered fitness trackers (like the Halo), and
working on networked • LG’s Mobile Communications
with Google Home Hub (now known as health care. Amazon Basics now makes
systems and device Google Nest Hub) and other smart home an Alexa-powered microwave, which Design Lab
handoff protocols de- display device makers to help further responds to voice commands. There’s • Bosch
connect the kitchen. Additional solu- also an Alexa-powered coffee maker,
signed for the kitchen, tions exist: Drop, a smart recipe startup, Instant Pot, and meat thermometer. Of
• Innit
creating opportunities partnered with LG Electronics to help particular interest: The GeniCan, a little • Amazon Web Services
for smart applianc- automate parts of the cooking process. device that attaches to a garbage can and
The Bosch Home Connect smart kitchen scans everything thrown away and then
es and other devices line connects to Nest Protect. If you for- reorders it for automatic delivery from
to communicate with get that pizza in the oven, and it starts to Amazon. How will Amazon integrate
catch fire, your Nest smoke detector will personal data from the kitchen into the
GeniCam scans items as you throw them away and
one another and work tell the oven to turn itself off. The Sensate rest of its ecosystem? If your Halo knows
automatically reorders them from Amazon. together to streamline kitchen faucet from Kohler responds to you’ve eaten too many calories, will your
efficiencies across the voice: Ask it for three cups of water, and Amazon microwave allow you to pop
it will automatically dispense exactly the your popcorn?
entire network, poten- right amount.
tially saving users time,
money, and energy.

Home Automation
Smart Home Gyms

Subscription-based workout apps have Once considered a last resort, exercising • Peloton
The latest smart fitness disrupted the gym membership. When at home is now a desirable, affordable lux- • Mirror
devices bring the best gyms closed due to COVID-19, demand ury. Brands offer monthly payment pack-
for connected fitness systems spiked. ages equivalent to the price of a standard • SoulCycle
of the gym right into • Tonal
Smart home gym equipment, such as the gym membership. As our lives become
your home. interactive fitness mirror Tonal comes less structured, demand grows for flexible • Hydrow
with adjustable arms for resistance and options. FightCamp analyzed its member
weight training. The system automat- retention data and found that 85% more • FightCamp
ically detects your performance and people stick to their workouts when using
adjusts the resistance for your workout. connected at-home fitness equipment.
Tempo, a free weight machine with a
42-inch HD touchscreen and 16 weight-
ed plates, uses 3D mapping to adjust
your form in real time.
FightCamp turns living rooms into boxing rings.

Home Automation
Pricing the Curb

The pandemic spurred e-commerce sales, The costs incurred by companies from • Coord
U.S. cities are embracing which jumped 71% in the second quarter municipal curb management will like- • CurbFlow
“curb management” tech of 2020 and 55% in the third, according to ly be passed on to consumers, and the
• City Tech Collaborative
as e-commerce, food Salesforce. The result: more freight vehi- free shipping we’ve enjoyed may dis-
(includes Bosch and
cles, which complicate traffic and safety appear. Smart curb pricing will spur a
delivery, and rideshare on city streets. In Aspen, Colorado, trucks new wave of revenue-generating urban HERE Technologies)
services crowd build- from 28 major shippers, including FedEx infrastructure that offers more dynamic
ing-front spaces. Digital and Sysco, use Coord’s digital curb app and detailed pricing structure using new
to reserve and prepay for delivery zones. technologies such as cameras, sensors,
tools allow cities to make
Cities set pricing premiums for peak and apps. This approach could lead cities
companies reserve street periods, incentivizing drivers to spread to charge fees to drivers who take certain
curb space, to charge deliveries throughout the day. At least 15 streets during high-traffic periods, ulti-
dynamically for that U.S. cities are reforming their curb space mately incentivizing them to take alter-
to better manage competition for deliver- nate routes or travel at different times of
space, and to automate ies, improve safety, and generate greater day. Cities could also charge for excessive
A UPS truck driver makes deliveries in New York City parking enforcement. revenue. The CurbFlow app identifies trash pickup, especially during snow-
using a static parking spot. idlers in high-traffic areas like airports storms, or charge for noise pollution,
This maximizes municipal
and cultural venues, detects illegal park- including loud construction and modified
revenue opportunities ing, and counts passengers inside vehicles drag-racing cars.
while incentivizing de- to enforce carpool lanes and incentivize
livery drivers to expedite rideshares.
their drop-offs and pick-
ups and thereby reduce
traffic congestion.
Home Automation
Securing the HoT (Home of Things)

Everyday people are buying and installing In the near future, burglars will break • Black Hat USA
The Home of Things in- millions of HoT devices without really into homes using computers, not crow- • SPLICE
cludes routers, security understanding how they work. Firmware bars. Because most people don’t consider
upgrades and software patches are left their connected devices to be computers, • National Institute of Standards
cameras, thermostats, and Technology
to consumers, who may not have the they don’t monitor them for malware
smart TVs, media devic- technical knowledge to monitor their or security flaws. When an unprotected • European Union Agency
es (such as Bluetooth systems. Outdated applications that were Internet of Things device is connected for Cybersecurity
once secure could be riddled with security to a network, it can become infected in
speakers), and myriad holes today. After the Mirai botnet took minutes. The National Science Founda-
other smart devices. down the East Coast internet backbone tion launched a project last year to boost
Many have security using a distributed denial-of-service at- IoT security. Led by Dartmouth College,
tack, researchers discovered that connect- the Security and Privacy in the Lifecy-
weaknesses, because ed devices—rather than PCs—had been cle of IoT for Consumer Environments
the technology some- hijacked and redirected. (SPLICE) initiative will conduct several
studies to better understand interface
times relies on outdated design, embedded systems, wireless
Devices in our smart homes are targets for hackers. software, vulnerable networks, radio engineering, and privacy,
operating systems, or and it will develop a toolkit to help people
secure their homes.
weak authentication
mechanisms.

Home Automation
When Smart Homes Go Dumb

Smart spaces aren’t always so smart. Because nearly every
place we frequent, including our homes and offices, are
digital environments, technological failures have become
an increasingly frequent, and occasionally devastating,
problem. With a range of devices and systems at work
that don’t always properly communicate with one an-
other, breakdowns are not uncommon: Control panels
suffer outages, digital locks freeze up, and appliances go
dark when you need them most. To limit the fallout from
these breakdowns, new smart buildings are retrofitted
with low- or no-tech fail-safes. The latest wave of smart
spaces are constructed with an analog mode that kicks in
when smart features fail so that users can interact with
their environments manually, unencumbered by malfunc-
tioning tech. Engineers and designers conceal physical
switches and buttons beneath seamless digital interfaces,
and include manually charged power sources for critical
system components. That way even if we’re lulled into
complacency by the convenience of smart tech in the built
environment, we’re not left powerless next time we’re
forced to snap back to reality.

Home Automation
Neighborhood Mesh Networks

Amazon Sidewalk plans to link smart The convenience factor is certainly com- • Amazon Sidewalk
A mesh network is a home devices, such as its Ring and Echo, pelling. If, for some reason, a consumer’s • Sidewalk Developer Console
group of devices in as well as other Amazon products using Wi-Fi goes down, he can temporarily
Bluetooth low-energy, 900Mhz spectrum continue to stay online. Amazon has said
close proximity to one
and other available frequencies. For every that bandwidth usage by each mini-mesh
another that allows device with Sidewalk turned on, inter- network is capped at 80 Kbps (a fraction
for fast and efficient net bandwidth is pooled for a half-mile. of what it would take to stream a video
The more neighbors who contribute, on Prime). Consumers can opt out of
data routing. Amazon’s the more bandwidth available. The mesh the service, but they must know how,
Sidewalk program is a network can transmit software and secu- because Sidewalk is turned on by default.
location-tracking mesh rity updates, too. And if consumers are Sidewalk needs internet service providers
outside their homes but within the mesh, to function, but it also siphons some of
network operating at their devices should be able to connect. the consumer relationship from those
the scale of a neighbor- One early use case: If a consumer loses providers. If Sidewalk is a success, it could
her keys and has a Tile attached, she can influence the future of the cable and tele-
Amazon’s Sidewalk program is creating mini-mesh
hood. use the Sidewalk network to automatical- com industry, including forcing positive
networks in neighborhoods. ly locate her keys. changes in the industry’s notoriously
problematic customer service.

Home Automation
Rollable Screens
Chinese electronics manufacturer TCL The initial slate of rollables are prototypes • Oppo
Rollable screens are has developed a phone and a tablet with and concepts, but the technology has at- • TCL
flexible and adaptable, a rollable screen. A flexible OLED display tracted so much attention that companies
is tucked away inside the device; a motor are rushing to patent their inventions. • LG
and they unroll to be-
expands the chassis to reveal a larger Oppo applied for 122 patents already, and
come larger. Imagine screen. Users pull the phone to expand it, a dozen cover the scroll mechanism alone.
a retractable scroll effectively doubling the screen real estate. Rollables will continue to evolve, with
The Oppo X 2021 is a smartphone with a components shrinking over time. In the
that can unfurl and continuously variable OLED display that future, this could mean rollable smart-
snap back into place. automatically adjusts the aspect ratio of phones the size of pencils.
Rollable screens are what’s being viewed. LG is developing
The Oppo X 2021 smartphone includes a
a suite of rollables, including televisions
rollable screen.
being developed for and a phone. Its rollable OLED TV is
next-generation mobile already in the market, though the $87,000
price tag will keep it out of the main-
phones and portable stream. The company has said that more
entertainment (screens rollable devices will go on sale in 2021.
for reading, watching
videos, and everyday
computing).

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Home Automation & Consumer Electronics
Application
For chief strategy officers working Right now, Home of Things (HoT) This is an exciting time to develop the The HoT presents numerous risks for
in consumer electronics, it’s time to devices are intended for general next generation of smart home technol- ICT companies, internet service provid-
rethink interoperability and forced ob- use—which means that everyone living ogies. A multitude of breakthroughs in ers, platforms, and device manufactur-
solescence. Newly elected U.S. officials in a shared space must agree on the flexible displays, ultrasonic detection, ers. Consumers are simply not aware
will pursue antitrust suits against the settings. Innovation teams can develop micro-mesh networks, 5G deployment, of vulnerabilities. This is an opportunity
big tech companies, and the Biden ad- personalized use cases and models. and metadata scraping—combined for hackers as well as for chief infor-
ministration is arming the U.S. Federal For example, a coffee machine con- with consumer demand for IoT devic- mation security officers: Securing the
Trade Commission and the U.S. Con- nects to your alarm clock and brews a es—presents a strong argument for HoT should be a top priority for compa-
sumer Financial Protection Bureau with cup of coffee that’s the right size and continued R&D in home automation. nies in the ecosystem. The U.S. govern-
aggressive teams. This could have a strength just as you’re waking up—and One immediate need: What happens ment is creating security standards
downstream effect on consumer elec- then an hour later, it brews a different to the HoT if the power goes out and for IoT devices through the National
tronics manufacturers. CSOs should version when your roommate wakes consumers don’t own battery backups Institute of Standards and Technolo-
model plausible outcomes for the next up. Better yet: A coffee machine that or generators? gy, but companies will need to move
three to five years and develop alter- also connects to fitness wearables can faster than the speed of government to
native business models and pricing titrate just the right amount of caffeine protect consumers.
strategies. per serving. Automated personaliza-
tion options for shared appliances will
unlock new products and consumer
demand spaces.
Key Questions We recommend using this report to support your strategic foresight activity in the coming year.
Every executive team should begin by asking these questions about the futures of smart homes
and consumer electronics:
1 2 3
Is our company tracking In a world in which What new opportunities
?
disruptions outside of our smart homes are does the Home of Things
immediate industry? ubiquitous and create for our company?
neighborhoods have
What does the And what new
their own mesh
emergence of rollable competitors and
networks, what
screens tell us about our vulnerabilities will
assumptions must hold
business? emerge?
true for our current
strategy to succeed? How could new business
How will we make models introduced by
needed changes? new entrants pose a
threat?

Selected Sources
University of Bristol. “Rethinking dig- Fagan M, Megas KN, Scarfone K, Smith https://www.salesforce.com/news/
ital service design could reduce their M (2020) Foundational Cybersecurity stories/salesforce-q2-shopping-index-
environmental impact.” ScienceDaily. Activities for IoT Device Manufacturers. digital-sales-up-71-percent/
ScienceDaily, 6 May 2019. (National Institute of Standards and
Technology, Gaithersburg, MD), NIST https://curbflow.com/airports-sea-
Chris Preist, Daniel Schien, Paul Sha- Interagency or Internal Report (IR) ports-and-venues
bajee. Evaluating Sustainable Interac- 8259.
tion Design of Digital Services. CHI ‘19 https://www.govtech.com/analytics/
Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Confer- Subrahmanian E, Rachuri S, Bouras A, Curb-Management-Pilots-to-Launch-
ence on Human Factors in Computing Fenves SJ, Foufou S, Sriram RD (2006) in-Several-US-Cities.html
Systems, 2019. The Role of Standards in Product Life-
cycle Management Support. (National https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/
https://www.congress.gov/ Institute of Standards and Technology, news/cities-shouldnt-leave-curb-
bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/734/ Gaithersburg, MD), NIST Interagency or management-to-private-sector-
text Internal Report (IR) 7289. t4a/591580/
https://www.congress.gov/ Joint Task Force Transformation Initia- https://gothamist.com/news/ny-law-

bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1668 tive (2018) Risk Management Frame- maker-proposes-3-tax-online-deliv-
work for Information Systems and eries-save-mta-and-check-amazons-
https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/ Organizations: A System Life Cycle power
email-marketing-stats Approach for Security and Privacy.
(National Institute of Standards and
IoT Device Cybersecurity Guidance for Technology, Gaithersburg, MD), NIST
the Federal Government: Establishing Special Publication (SP) 800-37, Rev. 2.
IoT Device Cybersecurity Requirements
– Draft. IoT Non-Technical Supporting Capabili-
ty Core Baseline – Draft.

Volume 7 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends
Report Policy
Strategic trends that will influence business, Government
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government
262 Summary 293 Expert Insight: The U.S. Defense

264 Antitrust Action and Space Future Will Require
Flexibility and Adaptability
266 States Unite Against Big Tech
296 Application
267 Scenario: Predictive Legislation
297 Key Questions
268 Cloud Neutrality
298 Sources
269 Digital Border Clashes
270 State Governments Tackle
Digital Privacy
271 Regulating Data Ownership
272 Scenario: You’re Saddled
with Data Debt
273 Interoperability Initiatives
274 Expert Insight: How the Pandemic
Pushed Fast Advancements in
the Public Sector
276 Science Is Back
277 Corporate Denial-of-Service
(CDoS)
279 Corporate Foreign Policy
280 Scenario: Digital Gerrymandering
281 Techno-Nationalism
282 Splinternets
283 Vaccine Nationalism
284 Vaccine Passports
285 City-Scale Digital Twins
286 State Charters for Blockchain
287 State Laws for Facial Recognition
288 Multilateral Science
and Technology Acts
289 Digital Dividends
290 Scenario: Citizenship Hedging
291 Legacy IT Infrastructure
292 China’s Quest for
Cyber Sovereignty
+ COVID-19 accelerated digital + High-profile people and compa-

transformation, the adoption of nies were deplatformed last year.
online government services, and Lawmakers will debate whether
universal basic income programs private companies should have
in countries around the world. the right to take public speech
offline.
+ The cloud is controlled by a hand-
ful of companies that have the + Companies will exert new power
sole ability to determine pricing, through corporate denial-of-ser-
Policy &
access, and standards. “Cloud vice (CDoS) attacks.
neutrality” will be debated this
year. + China continues its quest for
cyber sovereignty, with aggressive
+ The Biden administration will take new measures to nationalize its
more aggressive measures to own big tech companies.
limit the reach and powers of the
Government
world’s largest technology com- + China’s panopticon will spread
panies. beyond its geographical borders
this year.
+ Countries are pushing for a digital
vaccine passport to restart travel, + The Biden administration appoint-
but safeguarding citizens’ health ed a wide slate of well-known
Summary
data remains a challenge. scientists to key positions in the
federal government and desig-
+ In the U.S., states are starting to nated the head of the Office of
exert their own regulatory power. Science and Technology Policy
They’re suing big tech companies, as a Cabinet-level position. Evi-
proposing digital dividend pro- dence-based science is back.
grams, and restricting the use of
facial recognition systems.

CDoS:
When a company denies one or more users, businesses, or
governments the ability to access its platform or services,
this is an example of what the Future Today Institute calls a
CDoS, a corporate denial-of-service (CDoS).

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Policy & Government Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Antitrust Action
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES argues that today’s antitrust laws don’t
Outside the U.S., regulators plan to work in the age of big data and algorith-
U.S. antitrust laws en- limit the world’s largest tech companies’ mic decision-making. Expect in 2021 to
sure and promote fair reach and power. Lawmakers and federal see increased funding for the U.S. Federal
Trade Commision and Justice Depart-
competition between agencies express antitrust concerns about
ment, renewed investigations of market
Big Tech’s expanding power, including
companies for the ben- the companies’ ability to control data; dominance, new scrutiny of acquisitions
efit of consumers. A their power to impose terms on com- and control of user data, and new law-
petitors; their dual role as both platform suits that aim to decouple WhatsApp and
move to break up big Instagram from Facebook.
participants and owners; the potential
tech companies Apple, for algorithms to thwart competition;
Facebook, Google, and the giants’ habits of infringing on small
Amazon has galvanized competitors’ patents; and recent merger
and acquisition activity, which has helped
rare bipartisan support. powerful tech interests consolidate even
In 2021, the Biden ad- more power. Incoming antitrust chair
ministration will pursue U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
a number of lawsuits
targeted at America’s
tech giants.
U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is the incoming antitrust chair.

Antitrust Action continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT Services and Markets Acts will require EMERGING PLAYERS
The Biden administration may expand tech giants to protect consumers against • Margrethe Vestager, executive vice
the scope of investigations against illegal goods and counterfeits and will president of the European Commis-
Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple, prohibit platforms from algorithmically sion’s A Europe Fit for the Digital Age
while pursuing stricter enforcement of favoring their own products, with fines
• U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
mergers. But existing antitrust laws don’t as high as 10% of annual revenue. The
European Parliament must approve the • Rohit Chopra, former FTC commis-
always mesh with our ever-evolving
new reforms before they take effect. sioner (and proposed Consumer Finan-
business landscape. For example, Am-
cial Protection Bureau Commissioner as
azon’s acquisitions of Zappos, Diapers. of this writing)
com, and Whole Foods expanded the
company’s overall retail footprint sig- • Lina Khan, Columbia Law School
professor and antitrust expert
nificantly, but the acquisitions do not
amount to unfair competition in their • U.S. Department of Justice’s
respective markets. (By contrast, one Antitrust Division
could not make the same argument if
Walmart bought Publix and Safeway.)
Breaking up Big Tech could prove
difficult: Amazon’s moves to build digital
payments, logistics, and delivery infra-
structure could indirectly crush retailers
outside its platform—yet it isn’t illegal.
Facebook faces antitrust action in 2021. No U.S. laws prohibit being really, really
smart. The European Union’s Digital

States Unite Against Big Tech

On Dec. 17, 2020, attorneys general from Companies that have typically benefited • U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
State governments are 38 states filed antitrust lawsuits against from gridlock at the federal level may • Anindya Ghose, antitrust expert
taking action on their Google, alleging that the company’s find themselves in lawsuits against a witness and professor at the New York
own, filing antitrust search results favor its own services and coalition of attorneys general. These AGs University Stern School of Business
arguing it used its dominance to become have the authority to sue for violations
lawsuits against the the default search engine across nearly of both state and federal antitrust laws.
• Letitia James, New York
attorney general
tech giants. all digital devices, including web brows- While these lawsuits may take years to
ers, smartphones, connected cars, and unfold, mounting pressure from state • Lina Khan, Columbia Law School
connected home appliances. Just one day AGs could give a Democratic-controlled professor and antitrust scholar
earlier, a separate multistate lawsuit was federal government the ammunition to • Timothy Wu, Columbia Law School
filed against Google accusing the compa- update antitrust laws. Current antitrust professor and antitrust scholar
ny of misleading, false, or deceptive acts laws were written to protect consumers
through its Google Ads auction process. from unfair pricing. The big tech compa-
Many of these very same states also filed nies have far broader power, controlling
lawsuits against Facebook, alleging that the news we read, the ads we see, and
the company bought competitors such as sometimes even how we see ourselves.
Instagram and WhatsApp in an aggres-
sive, predatory manner.
New York Attorney General Letitia James is lead-
ing a lawsuit against Facebook for anticompeti-
tive business practices.

Predictive Legislation

Government is using predictive artificial intelligence
to better understand gaps in the legal system, especially
with regard to the repercussions of emerging technology.
Rather than waiting for court cases and lawsuits to set le-
gal precedents for the use—and abuse—of technology, the
algorithms anticipate conflicts and preemptively design
future laws. We run simulations for outliers in human be-
havior, hacks, subversions, misinterpretations, and more.
These exercises allow policymakers to work with the best
available data instead of perpetuating a flawed system of
loopholes, and constantly playing catchup with the latest
tech. Predictive law is a new field that, if applied wisely,
eliminates the risks inherent in the backward-looking
legal models of the past.

Cloud Neutrality
The three biggest cloud providers, Following the attack on the U.S. Capitol, • AWS
A handful of compa- Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, have AWS kicked Parler, the ultraright social • Microsoft Azure
nies control the cloud collectively invested tens of billions of platform, off its cloud for violating its
dollars building infrastructure: data cen- terms of service. The move unilaterally • Google Cloud
and have the sole abil-
ters, monitoring systems, and software. and swiftly dismantled the platform. The • U.S. Federal Trade Commission
ity to set pricing, ac- These robustly designed systems prevent decision by Amazon shows how much • U.S. Federal Communications
cess, and standards. downtime and data loss, and few other influence cloud companies have over the Commission
companies in the world can compete. internet. Molly Wood, the senior editor
Those companies own Cloud services account for a significant of NPR’s “Marketplace Tech,” likens the
Amazon’s decision to shut down Parler shows how
much influence cloud companies have over the
the infrastructure and amount of quarterly earnings: $9 billion consolidation of power among cloud
internet.
don’t have to make for Alphabet (Google Cloud), $10 billion providers to that of internet service
for Amazon Web Services (AWS), and providers (ISPs), which both own the
their business practic- $12 billion for Microsoft. It can take infrastructure and the means to throttle
es transparent. As our several years for a large company to access to the internet. Advocates for net
integrate its data with a cloud, making neutrality argue that ISPs shouldn’t be
businesses and lives selection a high-stakes choice. Netflix’s able to control how we access digital
move to the cloud, ef- 2009 selection of AWS was a big deal— services, including the internet. Wood
forts will grow to ensure before Amazon Prime Video existed. argues that access to the cloud is analo-
What if a cloud provider offers preferen- gous, and that it’s time we start talking
infrastructure serves tial treatment to its own services over the about cloud neutrality.
the public interest. competitor it’s hosting? The cloud isn’t
public infrastructure; it’s private.

Digital Border Clashes

The pandemic threw the geographic President Joe Biden and the Demo- • OneTrust
Digital technology was digital divide into stark relief because so crat-controlled Congress may intro- • Quantcast
supposed to increase much of life shifted online. Those who duce regulations that potentially upend
could connect continued to socialize, ad-supported revenue models. Watch for
opportunity and create
participate in local government hearings, major changes to any business practices,
open access to infor- and access the broader world; those who such as subscription marketing tactics,
mation. But varying couldn’t connect were isolated. The New that depend on consumer data. Watch,
York City Department of Education sent too, whether the G-MAFIA (Google,
regulation and broad- hot spot–enabled iPads to families that Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM, and
band access across ge- couldn’t afford an internet connection, Apple) influences legislators to shape the
ographies give internet while students in Appalachia, the Navajo process or whether the debate focuses on
When COVID-19 forced schools to close, not all Nation Reservation, and other rural areas punishing Big Tech. Without coordinat-
students had equal access: Those in urban areas users (and data) differ- got lessons asynchronously through USB ed effort, geographic differences in rights
could connect to the internet for remote learning,
but those in rural areas struggled.
ent rights in different drives, on school buses with hot spots, or and expectations will proliferate, chang-
on a hilltop with spotty cell service—or ing economics and operating models for
places. they didn’t learn at all. Pre-pandemic, companies with international customers
internet users’ protections varied based (or customers in various U.S. states).
on their locations. Californians, for Established tech platforms and multina-
instance, get GDPR-style rights to have tional organizations can handle that kind
information deleted; residents in other of regulatory complexity, but it may be
states don’t have that right. tough for new entrants to serve—and
monetize—audiences in multiple juris-
dictions. Consent management platforms
like OneTrust and Quantcast will gain
more power in the marketplace.
State Governments Tackle Digital Privacy

The California Consumer Privacy Act Hope is not lost, despite Washington, • K. Dane Snowden, president and CEO
As the federal govern- (CCPA) went into effect in early 2020 D.C., gridlock. A patchwork of state of the Internet Association
ment stalls on deliver- and became the first set of data privacy regulations is not ideal for consumers or • T.J Donovan, Vermont attorney general
laws in the United States. It affords Cali- companies, but it underscores to the fed-
ing meaningful data • U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.)
fornia residents the right to know about eral government that there is an appetite
privacy protections, personal information collected, the right for data privacy laws. COVID-19 contact • U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal
state governments are to delete personal information collected, tracing and data breaches of a range of (D-Conn.)
and the right to opt out of the sale of institutions have furthered the privacy
taking action. their personal information. State legis- discussion. Democrats, with control of
• New York State Sen. Kevin Thomas
latures in Hawaii, Massachusetts, New the U.S. Senate, may spearhead national • Signal
York, and Washington have introduced data privacy regulations. If the federal
similar bills, indicating that blue states government doesn’t act, tech companies
are ready to advance data privacy rights. must juggle various nuanced laws across
In August, Maine’s internet privacy law the country. Yet the free market may
went into effect, exclusively regulating pick winners and losers. Encrypted mes-
broadband internet access service provid- saging app Signal saw explosive growth
The CCPA marked the first data privacy law to ers (think Comcast and Verizon). Big law in early 2021 as consumer fears about
come into effect in the United States.
enforcement actions have emerged, too. WhatsApp sharing data with Facebook
In 2020, Vermont Attorney General T.J. led to mass user migration. Companies
Donovan filed suit against Clearview AI that don’t take data privacy seriously will
for violating the state’s data broker laws. lose market share to privacy conscious
competitors.

Regulating Data Ownership

In most countries, “data ownership” The regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech • Sir Tim Berners-Lee’s Solid initiative
Who exactly owns the typically refers to the legal rights to focuses on antitrust concerns and pri- • California Consumer Privacy Act
rights to consumer intellectual property or copyrights. But vacy, but larger questions loom: Who is
the legal guardian of a consumer’s data? • CitizenMe
data? Who can control when it comes to who owns consumer
data, there are few guidelines—and big Do companies have the right to change • MIT Trust-Data Consortium
it? Tech companies, implications for business. Former U.S. end user agreements regarding that data?
advocacy groups, and presidential candidate Andrew Yang, the Instead of ownership, should companies
World Economic Forum, and the United merely be the stewards or temporary
governments are grap- guardians of data? What about your ge-
Nations each aim to create guidelines for
pling with who has ul- data ownership, while the proposed Own netic data? If a consumer takes a 23and-
timate power and con- Me DNA test, who owns her genome?
Your Own Data Act would declare that
What happens to consumers’ enormous
trol over information. each person owns their online data and
trails of data when they die—who has the
has exclusive property rights to it, and
rights to inherit it or terminate its use? In a digital economy,
that social media companies must obtain
licenses to use it. A bill drafted by Sens. Determining what can be done with that data is currency.
Solid lets people securely store their data in de-
Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Mark Warner data, and under what circumstances,
centralized data stores.
(D-Va.) would require Facebook, Goo- should be a topic of conversation in every
boardroom. Data governance may sound
gle, and Amazon to disclose the mone-
boring, but it should be a centerpiece of
tary value of the personal data collected.
every corporate strategy.

You’re Saddled with Data Debt

Tech companies take a page from today’s banks, which
earn more profit the more consumers carry debt. Just as
bank customers can become hopelessly buried in financial
debt, consumers can find themselves drowning in “data
debt,” committed to providing deeper levels of personal
data in exchange for indispensable services. Eventually,
your every thought and action is quantified, seized, and
made available for sale by the new debt collectors of the
tech sector.

Interoperability Initiatives
Zigbee Alliance is developing a shared Incentivizing companies to make their • Zigbee Alliance
Tech platforms con- connectivity standard allowing hard- protocols and hardware interoperable • Dotdot
necting the cloud, our ware from different companies to work could help curtail some of the antitrust
• National Institute of Standards
smart homes, and our together. Amazon, Apple, and Google probes the big tech companies will face
and Technology
are members, but their devices don’t this year. Interoperability and data por-
everyday digital activ- work across platforms yet. Meanwhile, tability could eventually lead to new busi-
ities aren’t interopera- a bipartisan group of lawmakers led by ness opportunities and a bigger device
Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Richard ecosystem, if the tech giants are willing
ble. Big tech giants use to cooperate.
Blumenthal (D-Conn.), and Josh Hawley
U.S. Sen. Mark Warner (D.-Va.) leads a bipartisan different operating sys- (R-Mo.) proposed a new bill to encour-
effort to make Big Tech’s platforms interoperable.
tems for their various age competition by making Big Tech’s
devices and ecosys- platforms interoperable. The Augment-
ing Compatibility and Competition by
tems, which some regu- Enabling Services Switching (ACCESS)
lators argue is anticom- Act would require Google and Facebook
petitive. New initiatives to maintain API-like interfaces so that
users could port their information over
pushing for common to different platforms if they wanted and
standards are moving smaller companies could more easily
ahead in 2021. make use of our data. (With our permis-
sion, of course.)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
How the Pandemic Consistent investment in technol-

ogy and innovation has become
Pushed Fast a broadly recognized priority in
the public sector. I see three areas
Advancements in that will continue to grow in im-
the Public Sector portance: government technology

modernization, sustainability, and
workforce development.
Jeff Le Government technology

modernization.
U.S. State and Local Public Policy
State and local governments hem-
Lead for VMware
orrhaged amid the pandemic. Un-
employment agencies and motor
vehicle departments across the
The pandemic upended the way country failed to meet the demand
governments, universities, and of remote services and faced
schools deliver citizen services and serious cybersecurity concerns. The
instruction. The silver lining: The FBI reported a spike in fraudulent
future came faster for the public unemployment insurance claims
sector, which adopted flexible involving stolen personally identifi-
work arrangements, honed orga- able information. For instance, Cal-
nizational culture, built stronger ifornia paid at least $400 million
physical security, and implemented in unemployment benefit claims
cybersecurity controls. filed in the names of state prison
inmates.

As a result of these failings, pol- should extreme weather events meager diversity pipeline. Diversity
icymakers and politicians are compromise a data center. is both a national security issue
interested in systems that reflect and a company culture imperative.
Multiple state the 21st century. Multiple state
Workforce development and
Whether responding to a cyber
governments are governments are evaluating the
diversity, equity, and inclusion.
event or creating an environment
evaluating the use of use of blockchain technology to Personnel is policy. Recruitment for working parents, companies
deliver services, and we’ll see more and retention posed the biggest and governments will become more
blockchain technology digital infrastructure investments challenge to technology companies resilient the more their teams reflect
to deliver services, and cloud security strategies, amid during the pandemic, as they a broader and more inclusive range
more data breaches and growing consolidated their influence and of experiences and backgrounds.
and we’ll see more calls for higher privacy standards The pandemic has highlighted
worked to capture global markets.
digital infrastructure such as those set forth by the Cali- The work from home policies some of these structural and institu-
fornia Privacy Rights Act of 2020. tional legacy inequities.
investments and cloud resulted in longer hours and record
productivity but also came at the
security strategies. Sustainability.
cost of extensive burnout. There
The move to the cloud and stronger **
are significant morale challenges,
digital backbones could result in and more must be done to focus on Jeff Le (@JeffreyDLe) is U.S. state
reduced emissions and lower en- the personal growth of employees,
ergy costs. Companies and (most) and local public policy lead for
rather than just pure output.
governments recognize the impor- VMware. He was deputy Cabinet
In addition, partnerships with gov- secretary to former California
tance of pursuing sustainability in
ernment and higher education have Gov. Jerry Brown and oversaw
operations in order to combat the
delivered collaboration on cloud technology issues, economic
climate crisis (or at least realize
computing curriculum that was
tangible cost savings). Less reliance development, homeland security
sorely needed at community col-
on one central location may mini- and statewide cybersecurity, and
leges and promise to improve the
mize disaster recovery challenges, government operations.

Science Is Back
One of the first announcements made by Across the federal government, 20 • Office of Science and Technology Policy
The Biden adminis- the Biden administration was a plan to agencies fund science. A Cabinet-level • President’s Council of Advisors on
tration is elevating make the White House Office of Science position will be uniquely positioned to Science and Technology
and Technology Policy (OSTP) a Cabi- coordinate these disparate groups for
famed scientists to key
net-level agency, and it nominated genet- better research and data sharing, to gain
positions in the fed- icist and mathematician Eric Lander to insights, and to launch big, collaborative
eral government, sig- lead the office. Lander, a biology profes- projects. Biden has already charged these
sor at Massachusetts Institute of Tech- scientists with challenging questions:
naling a return to evi- nology and Harvard Medical School, was What lessons does the pandemic offer Science will always be
dence-based research part of the public consortia that mapped on the nation’s public health needs?
the human genome. Elevating the posi- What scientific advances are required
at the forefront of my
and forward-leaning
tion to the Cabinet marks a stark contrast to address climate change? How can the administration—and
policymaking. to the Trump administration, which United States maintain technological
gutted the OSTP and waited nearly two and economic dominance? How can the
these world-renowned
years to nominate a director. In addition, administration nurture research and scientists will ensure
Biden nominated two scientists—Maria ensure that breakthroughs benefit all
Zuber, a planetary scientist and MIT’s Americans? Answering these questions
everything we do is
vice president for research, and Frances will undoubtedly unlock new funding, grounded in science,
Arnold, a Nobel Prize–winning scientist lead to public-private partnerships, and
Eric Lander was nominated to lead the OSTP. who helped pioneer the synthesis of arti- provide opportunities for startups across facts, and the truth.”
ficial proteins—to the President’s Council numerous industries—at least for the
— President Joe Biden
of Advisors on Science and Technology. next four years.

Corporate Denial-of-Service (CDoS)

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES wing platform Parler from the cloud,
In the aftermath of the U.S. election, disabling its content and services. Reddit
When a company de- when former President Trump spread banned r/The_Donald and several pro-
nies one or more users, lies about votes being rigged or mis- Trump pages that intentionally spread
misinformation. Web-hosting company
businesses, or gov- counted, conspiracy theorists and
Liquid Web removed the oathkeepers.
right-wing activists used social media
ernments the ability to spread misinformation. This led to org, the site of the far-right militia
to access its platform tech platforms taking action to suspend group. Deplatforming worked: Weeks
or deactivate accounts. On Jan. 6, 2021, later, conversations about election fraud
or services, this is an decreased on the largest platforms.
Trump delivered a fire-and-brimstone
example of what the speech calling for decisive, violent action.
Future Today Institute Some followers complied, attacking the
calls a CDoS, a corpo- U.S. Capitol in a deadly insurrection.
The next day, Facebook temporarily
rate denial-of-service. denied Trump the right to post from his
account. Snapchat instituted a similar,
permanent ban. YouTube, Instagram,
Twitch, and Shopify suspended Trump,
AWS removed Parler for violating Amazon’s terms of service. while Twitter banned Trump’s account
indefinitely and shuttered 70,000 ac-
counts associated with QAnon. Amazon
Web Services removed extreme right-

Corporate Denial-of-Service (CDoS) continued

Amazon’s decision
CDoSing is a complex issue in the U.S., • Rebekah Mercer, heiress and
where free speech laws are strictly right-wing activist to CDoS Parler
enforced but where years of conspiracy • Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook demonstrates the
theories and misinformation have divid-
ed the country on numerous issues, from • Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter power the cloud
politics to racial justice to the COVID-19 • U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) provider has over the
vaccine. Platforms played a key role—and
some argue that the steps taken to re- internet.
move radical groups came too late. Some
lawmakers argue that tech companies
overreached. The fate of Section 230, the
law that offers civil liability protections
to platforms like Google, Facebook, and
Twitter, was called into question at the
end of 2020 when Sen. Josh Hawley (R-
Mo.) proposed a bill requiring platforms
to stop what he perceived to be the
targeting of conservative commentary.
Florida Gov. Ron Desantis proposed
Twitter permanently banned President Trump after he incited a riot at the Capitol. new laws that would impose daily fines
of $100,000 if a platform restricts the
speech of a candidate while running for a
state office.

Corporate Foreign Policy

Large companies have always lobbied to As they consolidate power in the com- • Microsoft’s Digital Diplomacy Group
Big tech companies are influence policy and regulation. But as mercial sector, Big Tech could wind up • Facebook for Government, Politics, and
standing up depart- the tech giants amass power and wealth, consolidating power in the public sector, Advocacy
they’re making key decisions that impact too. It’s one thing for a big company to
ments dedicated to • Jigsaw
diplomacy and geopolitics. Microsoft lobby domestic lawmakers. Some now
geopolitics. President Brad Smith regularly meets ponder the longer-term implications if • Google’s Business Strategy Division
with heads of state and foreign ministers corporations try to influence geoeco- • Amazon’s Public Policy teams
about the tech cold war between America nomics. What if a company’s priorities
and China, emerging cyberthreats, and differ from the national priorities of its • Office of Science and Technology Policy
In 2014, Google Chairman Eric Schmidt made a closing the digital divide in emerging government at home?
trip to Cuba, which presaged President Obama’s markets. In 2017, Smith introduced a
announcement that Google would work with
Digital Geneva Convention, an interna-
Cuba to speed up internet connectivity.
tional treaty to protect citizens against
state-sponsored cyberattacks. And Mic-
rosoft’s Digital Diplomacy Group actively
works on a tech-focused approach to for-
eign policy. The company sees corporate
foreign policy as good business, because
it builds trust and enables long-term
planning. Apple, Google, and Amazon
are building their own divisions centered
on geopolitics and digital diplomacy.

Digital Gerrymandering

Electoral districts have long been shaped and manipulated
to the benefit or disadvantage of certain political parties,
and as network connectivity becomes a major factor
affecting citizens’ quality of life, access to resources, and
even the ability to vote, the practice of gerrymandering is
translated to the digital realm. Building on the tactics of
traditional gerrymandering, some districts are “packed”—
incumbent politicians strategically place high-speed
internet in a select few districts to consolidate constitu-
ents of the opposing party in fewer locales, minimizing
their presence in contested districts and thus weakening
their ability to sway elections. Other districts, where
constituents of the opposing are already concentrated, are
“cracked”—incumbent politicians throttle connectivity or
undermine the installation and maintenance of network
infrastructure in order to disperse their opponents’ vot-
ers, diluting their electoral impact. No politician will give
up the opportunity to gain an advantage over their rivals,
and weaponizing connectivity is a clever (if sinister) way
to do just that.

Techno-Nationalism
A great decoupling is underway, as the China’s new Foreign Investment Law • U.S. Department of State
In the digital age, a U.S. and Chinese tech sectors are cleaved imposes strict rules for vetting foreign • Committee on Foreign Investment in
nation’s technology apart by national governments. What be- investments on national security con- the United States
capabilities are inex- gan as a rift in the semiconductor, cloud, cerns. Widely seen as retaliation for the
• China’s Ministry of Commerce
5G, AI, and biotech industries has bled Trump administration’s aggressive black-
tricably linked to its into other sectors, deepening existing listing of Chinese companies, the law’s • China’s National Development and
economic prosperity, business and economic divides. In the intent resembles that of the Committee Reform Commission
past year, the COVID-19 pandemic only on Foreign Investment in the United
national security, and States, which wielded great power under
• China’s Foreign Investment Law
further magnified the ideological differ-
Technology shapes the global balance of power. social stability. Tech- ences in political freedoms and human Trump and cut Chinese investment from
nology shapes the ways rights, wealth distribution, and the role U.S. businesses. Companies must decide
of the state in everyday life. whether to remove supply chains from
the countries relate to China and how to safeguard company
one another, and it in- and consumer data if it is housed on
Chinese servers. Brands must weigh the
fluences the global bal- marketing value of a viral TikTok video
ance of power. with the risk that accompanies the plat-
form’s strong Chinese Communist Party
ties. Meanwhile, WeChat and Huawei
increase China’s influence around the
world. As the globe’s two largest econo-
mies drift apart, companies must navi-
gate business interests and relationships
with lawmakers.

Splinternets
Nation-scale internet censorship is most The playbook for governments dealing • Freedom House
The founding prom- closely associated with China’s “great fire- with social unrest increasingly includes • Amnesty International
ise of the digital world wall.” The Chinese government aggres- trying to disrupt the digital tools activists
sively monitors the internet and removes • Access Now
was broad connectiv- use to organize. If it becomes clear that
information that doesn’t meet its political
leaders can follow that playbook with im-
ity where information standards. At times of political unrest, as
punity, look for it to be increasingly ad-
during widespread riots in Xinjiang in
could flow freely. But 2009, China has completely shut down opted by democratic governments. Early
access to the internet. China’s leadership this year, Myanmar’s military shut down
as some governments the internet as thousands of citizens tried
believes its model contributes to stabili-
take steps to filter (or ty—and is open to exporting that approach to organize a rally against the coup that
completely block) ac- to the rest of the world: “We should had taken over the government. Even
respect the right of individual countries to VPNs couldn’t bypass the blackout. India
cess to the internet and independently choose their own path of shut down phone and internet services
subscription models cyber-development,” said Chinese Presi- to protesters several times in 2020, and
dent Xi Jinping at China’s second World instituted new bans in February to de-es-
make wealth a pre- Internet Conference in 2015. Splinternets
calate protests.
requisite for access to aren’t just the product of blocking free ac-
cess to the internet; sometimes it’s enough
reliable information, to just increase the barriers to finding re-
we’re headed toward a liable information. That can be a technical
roadblock—as in a censorship regime that
fragmented future with doesn’t remove websites, but knows the
A military junta shut down Myanmar’s internet
“splinternets” rather average user won’t have the knowledge or
in 2021.
time to connect through a virtual private
than a single world network (VPN) to reach unfiltered infor-
wide web. mation—or a financial one.
Vaccine Nationalism
In 2020, wealthy nations pre-ordered At a virtual meeting of the World Eco- • World Health Organization
While options for effec- vaccine doses from companies within nomic Forum in January 2021, South Af- • Covax
tive COVID-19 vaccines their preferred trading blocs, and with rican President Cyril Ramaphosa pleaded
production unable to keep up with with wealthy nations to share their
emerged by late 2020,
demand, that left dozens of developing doses. As he gave his speech, a dangerous
capacity met only a economies without a means to protect coronavirus mutation known as 501Y.
fraction of the global their citizens. By the middle of January V2 was spreading: It seemed to be more
2021, only 25 doses of the vaccine had transmissible, and possibly more resistant
demand. Weak coop- been administered in emerging markets. to antibody therapies. And it emerged We risk cleaving our
eration between busi- (That’s not a typo.) In wealthy nations, in South Africa. We risk splitting our
39 million had been administered. Those countries, and our communities, into
countries, and our
nesses and countries
25 doses were Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, biological haves and have-nots. Covax, communities, into
caused an imbalance and they were given to people in Guinea. a vaccine sharing fund, began offering
over which citizens got its first doses in February, but it still
biological haves and
access to the vaccine. had to compete with nations such as the have-nots.
U.K. and U.S. that could afford higher
prices to secure what limited supplies
were available. The director-general of
the World Health Organization warned
of a “catastrophic moral failure” if rich
nations continued to hoard doses.
A rise in vaccine nationalism resulted in poorer
nations being unable to secure doses.

Vaccine Passports
Restaurants, sports arenas, entertain- Several vaccine passport systems are • Linux Foundation Public Health
Different countries be- ment facilities, and tourist destinations underway. The Geneva-based Common • COVID-19 Credentials Initiative
gan requiring proof of continue to bleed money with Covid Trust Network, a project supported by
lockdowns; tourism-dependent countries • Clear
a COVID-19 vaccine the World Economic Forum, devel-
are understandably eager to reopen their oped a secure mobile app that lets users • CommonPass
at borders in 2021. Big borders. Several countries, including upload official Covid test results and • IBM
tech companies are Romania, Cyprus, and Seychelles, lifted proof of vaccination. The app generates
• United Nations World
quarantine restrictions for travelers with a QR code with a health certificate to be
working to build digital proof of inoculation. The United Nations shown to authorities without revealing Tourism Organization
identification systems World Tourism Organization called for personal information. Partners include
that function as vac- the global adoption of vaccination pass- U.S. health systems and several airlines
ports using a single standard, not unlike (United Airlines, JetBlue, Lufthansa,
cine passports. traditional passports that allow people to Swiss International Air Lines, Cathay
travel between borders. Pacific, Virgin Atlantic). IBM developed
the Digital Health Pass, an adaptation of
a digital wallet. Companies can customize
the criteria required for entry (proof of
vaccination, as well as Covid tests and
other biometrics). Because competing
credentialing systems will be a problem,
the COVID-19 Credentials Initiative is
Tech companies such as IBM are developing working to develop a set of common
digital vaccine passports or mobile wallets for
test results.
standards for vaccine passports.

City-Scale Digital Twins

Building on cities’ traditional modeling As cities worldwide develop digital twins, • National Research Foundation, Prime
Cities are using digital tools, these digital twins draw on data they will combine historically siloed Minister’s Office, Singapore
twins of themselves from intelligent buildings, vehicles, and and buggy datasets from many sources. • Arup Group
infrastructure to help decision-makers As a result, city government vendor
to model the interplay • Siemens
play out a variety of scenarios. They can contracts will shift further toward data
of real-world infra- prepare emergency management for aggregation, cleaning, management, and • Taisei
structure, topography, events like floods and power outages, analytics. Digital twins will eventually • Dassault Systèmes
and they can assess the impact of a take over micro-decisions from city
movement, and popu- government, such as snowplow routing.
construction project, such as the shadow
lation. The result: better it casts on nearby properties or how it Companies building artificial intelligence
management in the real affects traffic flow. The first digital twin systems to predict, plan for, and respond
city, Virtual Singapore, locates areas that to urban needs will see successes, as cities
world. need better mobile data coverage, models seek to streamline operations in per-
barrier-free routes for people with dis- petually budget-strained environments.
abilities, and identifies buildings ideal for Autonomous vehicle companies and
solar panel installations. Sydney made its buildings will enjoy the benefits of more
digital twin an open-source platform to and better data, such as 4D maps. Like-
better plan for land development. wise, insurance companies will be further
empowered to pinpoint risk areas based
on intricate prediction models. Privacy
concerns around using data that can
City-scale digital twins will shape our future identify individuals may limit the scope
urban landscapes.
of some predictions.

State Charters for Blockchain

In 2020, Wyoming became the first state In 2015, Kraken and other crypto com- • Avanti Bank founder Caitlin Long
U.S. states are devel- to approve a banking charter for digital panies ceased operations in New York • Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon
oping charters and assets when it approved applications by after the rollout of strict regulations.
Kraken (a consumer-focused crypto- Governments that create burdensome • U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.)
special permissions to
currency exchange) and Avanti Bank & regulations around crypto may find • Andrew Yang
stimulate blockchain Trust (a bank created to hold crypto for that industry players and the opportu- • Miami Mayor Francis Suarez
use for digital identifi- institutions) to form the first two special nity they bring may leave for greener
purpose depository institutions (SPDIs) pastures. That said, federal regulations
cation, cryptocurren- in the world. The SPDI permit enables could nullify state and municipal efforts.
cies, and managing institutions to take deposits and offer The states are eager to court startups,
digital assets. custody and fiduciary services for digital so new policies and regulations favor-
assets. All this came to fruition just one ing blockchain initiatives are likely in
year after Wyoming passed legislation to 2021. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez,
allow SPDI charters. The state’s Division who launched a Twitter campaign at the
of Banking granted permission to Two end of 2020 pitching the city as the next
Ocean Trust, a wealth management ser- center for fintech innovation, met with
vices firm, to provide custodial services crypto industry leaders and explored a
Wyoming legislators have been key in promoting a
friendly regulatory environment toward crypto. for digital assets. In November, the Uni- Miami-based Gemini LATAM headquar-
versity of Wyoming launched its Center ters with founders Tyler and Cameron
for Blockchain and Digital Innovation, Winklevoss.
signaling a growing trend in the state.

State Laws for Facial Recognition

In early 2020, New Jersey Attorney While lawmakers introduce legislation to • New Jersey Attorney General
States are developing General Gurbir Grewal directed all police curb the use of facial recognition, infra- Gurbir Grewal
local laws for facial departments to cease the use of Clear- structure for the technology grows by the • New York State Sen. Brad Hoylman
view AI, a controversial facial recog- second as users upload photos and video
recognition technology • U.S. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.)
nition tool. Despite questions around to TikTok, Instagram, and other social
and its use in law en- accuracy, collection methodologies, and platforms. Technology companies are • U.S. Department of Justice
forcement. privacy rights, Clearview reportedly built aware of the problem: Last summer Mi- • American Civil Liberties Union
a database of more than 3 billion photos crosoft and IBM banned the police use of
scraped from the likes of Facebook and their technologies, and Amazon placed a
Venmo. Later in the year, a New Jer- one year moratorium on police use of its
sey man sued a local police department Rekognition tool. However, facial recog-
after a facial recognition tool mistakenly nition technology did aid in arrests made
linked him to a shoplifting case and he following the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol
spent 10 days in jail. A similar situa- riot. Lawmakers must grapple with pri-
tion unfolded in Michigan, after police vacy rights and unauthorized collection
wrongly arrested a Black man due to of data, as well as with the technology’s
mistaken facial recognition. A growing effectiveness in law enforcement.
body of research found consistent inaccu-
racy when facial recognition algorithms
attempt to identify females, people of
color, and younger people.
As the infrastructure for facial recognition
technology expands, questions around unfet-
tered surveillance remain.

Multilateral Science and Technology Acts

Multilateral agreements between sov- COVID-19 has been a stress test of • International Union of Biological
Throughout history, ereign nations resulted in the Geneva current cooperative relationships world- Sciences
multilateral efforts Conventions, League of Nations, Inter- wide. Throughout 2021, the outcome of • United Nations
national Monetary Fund, United Na- vaccine distribution will result in vaccine
have resulted in na- • World Health Organization
tions, and World Health Organization. nationalism or multilateralism, and that
tions working togeth- Now, following revelations that a pair will have downstream effects on other
er to promote shared of genetically engineered twin girls was key areas of science and technology—
born in China, some wonder whether in- CRISPR, ocean plastics, climate, auton-
purposes. Proposals ternational norms are enough. As many omous vehicles, AI, and space explora-
to create multilateral fields of science and technology produce tion—for years to come.
initiatives on artificial striking new developments, lawmakers,
researchers, and ethicists are calling for
intelligence, genomic some kind of consensus—and interna-
editing, and blockchain tional deliberations that could lead to
international treaties and protocols.
are currently being dis-
cussed.
COVID-19 has been a stress test of current

cooperative relationships worldwide.

Digital Dividends
Proponents of an unconditional guar- With rising unemployment and financial • Centre for Public Impact
A digital dividend anteed income for everyone within a loss, COVID-19 gave UBI programs new • GiveDirectly
would give citizens a country argue that it would be a means momentum. Germany launched a new
of encouraging entrepreneurial inno- UBI program in August 2020 similar to • California
cut of the profits de-
vation and that it would help offset the the Stockton experiment: 120 Germans • German Institute for
rived from their person- effects of automation, advanced robotics, are receiving 1,200 euros ($1,430) every Economic Research
al data. and artificial intelligence on the market month for three years. Researchers are • Renda Básica de Cidadania
for human labor. California Gov. Gavin comparing the UBI group with a control program in Brazil
Newsom proposed a digital dividend group not receiving basic income, to
that would allow state residents to share determine the impact on everyday life. • Stanford Center on Philanthropy
in the profits of big tech companies. Spain launched a UBI program for its and Civil Society
There are already city-scale experimental lowest-income families and is distrib-
universal basic income (UBI) programs uting 1,015 euros ($1,145) to those in
running in Oakland and Stockton, need. Kenya’s UBI program, the largest
California. The Stockton project initially and longest-running UBI experiment
gave 125 randomly selected low income in the world, is five years into a 12-year
families $500 a month for 18 months; re- experiment period. More than 20,000
cipients spent the money on utility bills, people receive monthly payments, no
credit card debt, groceries, and dental strings attached.
work. The program, deemed successful,
was extended into 2021.
A UBI program in Maricá, Brazil, launched in 2013.

Citizenship Hedging

E-residency is a system originally piloted in Estonia that
allows globally itinerant or location-independent business
owners and entrepreneurs to avail themselves of certain
national services and resources in a foreign country with-
out being a citizen there. As similar programs popped up
across the globe, e-residency became a popular method to
seek safe haven for companies in potential conflict zones.
With mounting problems like political destabilization
and climate change, securing e-residency abroad proved
a valuable insurance policy for one’s business—or even
one’s own well-being. Participating countries allow e-res-
idents to take up physical residence for a limited period
of time, if necessary, and while e-residency doesn’t secure
citizenship, it can improve your chances of moving up the
immigration list. Not a bad option for those who don’t
have a bunker in New Zealand to escape to.

Legacy IT Infrastructure
In 2020, millions of people tried to file Fixing legacy systems is a technological • U.S. Government Accountability Office
Parts of the federal unemployment claims, and registration as well as cultural challenge. Upgrading • United States Digital Service
government rely on systems in 19 states crashed under the a legacy system that’s critical for day-
stress. Many systems haven’t been updat- to-day operations would cause major • Office of Management and Budget
comically old tech-
ed since they were built in the 1980s. A disruption, and government offices, • Office of Science and Technology Policy
nology, which is very desperate New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy already strapped for personnel, don’t
difficult to maintain. held a press conference pleading for vol- have easy workarounds. And because
unteer COBOL programmers to help fix the systems are taxpayer funded, gov-
However, overhauling the state’s automated benefits system. It ernment agencies tend to underinvest,
the infrastructure has took five months to issue $1,200 stimu- avoid maintenance, and cut corners on
bipartisan appeal. lus checks to eligible taxpayers because upgrades to save money. Few techni-
the Internal Revenue Service computer cians have enough institutional knowl-
systems, built in the 1970s, couldn’t be edge to make the necessary fixes, which
easily reconfigured. The U.S. govern- means rehiring retired employees at high
ment wastes $80 billion each year due to contract wages. Legacy systems are also
obsolete technologies and inefficiencies, vulnerable to attack.
according to a 2016 U.S. Government
Accountability Office report. That
sobering tech audit found that the State
Department tracks visa information for
55,000 foreign nationals using a 26-year-
Government systems still run legacy IT equipment old system that’s been decommissioned
and software.
by the software maker.

China’s Quest for Cyber Sovereignty

In 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping The CCP argues that China is an enor- • Ant Group
Cybersovereignty re- pushed forward an agenda of strict mous country in the midst of the fastest • Alipay
fers to a government control, censorship, and suppression, and economic transition in modern history,
the country began exporting its systems and its unique controls promote so- • ByteDance
exerting control over
to authoritarian leaders elsewhere in the cial and economic stability. But there’s • Ren Zhengfei, Huawei founder
how the internet is run, world. And last year, provocative crack- more to it than that: In 2019, Xi also • Lei Jun, Xiaomi founder
who gets access to it, downs on Hong Kong by the Chinese announced that the government would
• Pony Ma, Tencent founder
Communist Party (CCP) resulted in an wean itself off foreign-made computers
and what can be done expansion of China’s Great Firewall, a and operating systems, replacing familiar • Liu Chuanzhi, Lenovo founder
with all of the data tightly controlled version of the internet brands (Microsoft, Dell, Apple) with
• Jack Ma, Alibaba founder
generated. that blocks entertainment, journalism, Chinese products. Xi has said China’s
and commentary that challenge the digital and information systems can
government’s ideas. In January 2021, serve as a new model for other coun-
the CCP announced plans to nationalize tries around the world and that other
Alibaba and Ant Group, two of China’s authoritarian regimes can follow suit.
most successful big tech companies. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which
has successfully expanded trade through-
out emerging economies, has boosted
the country’s digital initiatives. Within
a decade, the digital world could be split
in two: a free system in the West and a
Chinese President Xi Jinping wants his country to be closed system led by China.
technologically independent this decade.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
The U.S. Defense overlooked vulnerabilities for sup-

ply chains, our society, our econ-
and Space Future omy, and our national security
strategy.
Will Require
The new strategic environment af-
Flexibility and fects many of the baseline assump-
tions that underpin our national
Adaptability security strategy and service-level
warfighting concepts. In light of
these challenges, how can defense
Lt. Col. Jake Sotiriadis, Ph.D. planners mitigate uncertainty?
Strategic Foresight and Futures Strategic foresight and futures

Branch Chief thinking can lend insights into
sources of disruption and disruptive
Headquarters, US Air Force
technologies, by harnessing envi-
ronmental scanning, weak signals,
and emerging trend analysis. The
In 2021, a cycle of rapid change, security landscape of a post-Covid
growing complexity, and radical world contains both challenges
uncertainty will intensify the ur- and opportunities that will continue
gency for the national security to defy accepted probabilities in
establishment to become more defense.
adaptable to the unexpected. The
COVID-19 pandemic revealed

This includes the definition of what patterns. As we continue to focus In the space domain, expect a
constitutes national security itself, on the competition among great targeted set of strategies to ensure
which today must encompass non- world powers—with China and the immense progress made in the
Digital connectivity traditional items, such as bio-secu- Russia as the primary threats to U.S. commercial space industry over
alone, however, will not rity and advances in CRISPR tech- security—we also cannot lose sight the past two decades is not lost.
be enough to prevail on nology. Signals and trends today of the new, emerging fault lines in The need to accelerate space pro-
also point to future developments the Middle East or complex crises grams and transform capabilities in
tomorrow’s battlefields in anticipatory health platforms on Europe’s periphery. a fiscally constrained environment
or in tomorrow’s that will be powered by quantum
Covid’s disruption has also accel-
will feed investment in a technolo-
processors. gy pipeline, spur agile contracting,
boardrooms. erated the export of China’s worst
and strengthen partnerships with
In 2021, disinformation is no longer characteristics, while prompting
the commercial sector and inter-
limited exclusively to Russia, China, delays and disruptions to the coun-
national partners. This approach
Iran, or violent extremist organiza- try’s Belt and Road Initiative. In the
will alleviate weak supply chains,
tions. Rather, we are likely to see U.S. homeland, overly thin levels of
leverage cutting-edge technolo-
these actors waging simultaneous, inventory and long supply chains
gies, and strengthen gaps in areas
multi-faceted influence campaigns present risks to national security.
that require international cooper-
on targeted populations at a global The second and third order effects
ation (such as debris mitigation,
scale. These campaigns will contin- of Covid also increase the potential
space traffic control, and behav-
ue to target all facets of our society. for more surveillance and automa-
ioral norms).
tion in the name of public health—
We can expect to see increased
much as the terrorist attacks on Military and national security
defense partnerships with the
Sept. 11, 2001, did for airport securi- entities will be consumed with
technology sector—with traditional
ty procedures. networking their forces and trading
social media platforms as well as
information and data. This means
with startups developing emerging
moving toward cloud-based solu-
platforms to identify disinformation
tions that enable instantaneous

sharing of information—delivering Here, we refer to a disciplined also ensuring that professionals are **
decision advantage within a rap- way of: given powerful technological tools
idly shifting security environment. with the requisite cognitive capaci- Lt. Col. Jake Sotiriadis, Ph.D., is the
Efforts to transition legacy plat- 1. Questioning our assumptions ty for sense-making. U.S. Air Force’s senior futurist. His
forms toward new digital solutions work spans the nexus of disruptive
2. Seeing the interconnectivity Last year was a critical one for dig- technology, geopolitical risk anal-
will accelerate.
of events ital transformation across all sec- ysis, intelligence, and alternative
Digital connectivity alone, howev- tors, but make no mistake—2021
futures. He leads a team that helps
er, will not be enough to prevail on 3. Embracing analytic will be a year when companies
senior leaders in the Department of
tomorrow’s battlefields or in to- complexity in our strategic seek increasingly innovative means
Defense and the Intelligence Com-
morrow’s boardrooms. Advances in to derive value chains from tech-
planning munity develop anticipatory thinking
automation for the defense work- nology. It will be a year in which
force will present a major dilemma intentional strategies are indis- and conceptualize breakthrough
Doing so requires both crafting and
in defining new skill sets that ensure pensable to achieving success. In innovations. He holds a Ph.D. in
proliferating better methodologies
contextualized knowledge re- national security, defense, and the political science from the University
for anticipatory thinking.
mains—even in human-in-the-loop corporate world, organizations of Hawaii at Manoa and master’s
scenarios. Digital solutions are necessary— cannot simply “stumble” into tech degrees from the Fletcher School of
but not sufficient—for success solutions (as was the case in many Law and Diplomacy at Tufts Univer-
Maximizing human capital will
in retaining decision advantage. instances in 2020). Absent a de- sity, the School of Advanced Air and
require creating, enhancing, and
Seizing and occupying the cog- liberate strategy and a clear road Space Studies, and the Air Com-
developing our cognitive operating
nitive high ground in the national map for implementation, even the mand and Staff College.
system.
security arena means more than most advanced or disruptive tech-
just “buying things,” developing nologies will not be a panacea. The views expressed in this section are those
weapons systems, or increasing of the author and do not reflect official posi-
technological leverage. It means tions or endorsements of the U.S. Air Force or
the Department of Defense.

Application
The intersection of technology, policy, Policy uncertainty creates all sorts of China has emerged as an R&D pow- China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which
and politics affects every business. hurdles for innovation teams. How- erhouse. In recent years, China has has been a huge success in expanding
Anti-competitiveness lawsuits and an- ever, the Biden administration has launched new programs to repatriate trade throughout emerging economies,
titrust investigations will have a chilling taken office with clear, decisive plans. researchers from their U.S. and Europe- has also been a boost for the country’s
effect on merger and acquisition activ- This should give innovation teams the an posts. The Thousand Talents initia- digital initiatives. As China pursues its
ity by the big tech companies. If one of foundation they need to work on new tive bestows lavish packages—high cyber sovereignty plan, our existing
the companies under scrutiny provides products and services related to cli- salaries, luxury apartments, automatic splinternet will worsen. This will chal-
some (or all) of your technology stack, mate change, transportation, biotech, admission to the best schools for chil- lenge foreign businesses that operate
further improvements and features artificial intelligence, and systems that dren of researchers—to those who are in China, spark new cybersecurity
could be paused if lawsuits were to use biometric recognition. willing to bring their expertise home. challenges, and eventually prevent
siphon off resources. Chief strategy But tech companies are poaching tal- some companies from reaching the
officers should work closely with chief ent also, from academic departments Chinese market. Risk models should
technology officers and others in their and other companies. With so much be developed to determine plausible
organizations to develop near-term competition, companies should devel- near-future scenarios so that leaders
plans. Ongoing tensions between Chi- op strategies for R&D team acquisition can adjust their strategies accordingly.
na and the U.S. will continue to impact and retention.
the supply chain, intellectual property,
and trade.


should begin by asking these questions about technology,
science, and policy:
1 2 3
Is our company’s What parts of our Is our government
?
government affairs team business make department adequately
proactive enough—or is us vulnerable to planning for the longer-
it simply responding to state, national, term? What assumptions
policy changes? or international must hold true for our
government action? current strategy to
succeed? How will we
When was the last time
make needed changes?
we audited the systems
that keep those parts of
our business safe?

Selected Sources
https://www.natlawreview.com/
article/discovering-legal-hurdles-try-
ing-to-protect-consumer-internet-pri-
vacy-state-maine-s
https://ago.vermont.gov/
blog/2020/09/11/attorney-gener-
al-wins-significant-victory-in-clear-
view-ai-lawsuit/
https://www.natlawreview.com/arti-
cle/action-items-technology-and-com-
munication-policies-front-senate-com-
merce-committee
http://wyomingbankingdivision.
wyo.gov/home/areas-of-regulation/
laws-and-regulation/special-pur-
pose-depository-institution
https://www.americanbanker.com/
news/crypto-exchange-kraken-re-
ceives-wyoming-bank-charter
https://www.theguardian.com/soci-
ety/2021/jan/18/who-just-25-covid-
vaccine-doses-administered-in-low-in-
come-countries

Volume 8 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends
Report Privacy
Strategic trends that will influence business, Security
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Privacy and Security
302 Summary 319 Supply Chain Attacks

304 Privacy 320 Techlash Leads to Messy Code
305 Trackers Everywhere and Security Problems
305 Emphasizing Data Ethics 320 Zero-Day Exploits Rising
305 Crowdsleuthing 320 Zero-Knowledge Proofs
Go Commercial
306 Remote Worker Monitoring
321 Government Requests
306 Data Retention Policies
for Backdoor Access
306 Compliance Challenges
321 Remote Kill Switches
and Unrealistic Budgets
321 Low-Cost Malware
306 Drone Surveillance
321 Consumer IoT Vulnerabilities
307 Non-Line-of-Sight Tracking
321 Sonic Lock Picking
307 Contact Tracing
322 Data Theft Becomes
307 Data Privacy Enforcement Returns
Data Manipulation
307 Fragmented Approaches to Privacy
322 Cyber Risk Insurance
and Data Ownership
322 AI-Powered Automated
308 Privacy and Unionizing at Big Tech
Hacking Systems
308 Encrypted Messaging Networks
322 Hijacking Internet Traffic
308 Biological Privacy
322 DDoS Attacks on the Rise
309 Depth of Field Recognition
323 Third-Party Verified Identities
309 Personal Electronic Keys
323 Ransomware-as-a-Service
309 Public Entities Selling Private Data
323 Decentralized Hacktivists
309 GDPR Copycats
323 Weird Glitches
309 Eavesdropping Rights
323 Open Source App Vulnerabilities
309 Preventing Digital Self-Incrimination
323 Global Cybersecurity Pacts
310 Differential Privacy
324 Proliferation of Darknets
310 Defining Online Harassment
324 Bounty Programs
310 Safeguarding and Verifying
324 Magnetic Tape Supply Shortages
Leaked Data
324 State-sponsored Security Breaches
311 Scenario: Full (Human) Autonomy
325 Critical Infrastructure Targets
312 China’s Panopticon
325 Offensive Government Hacking
313 Scenario: Privacy
Protection Startups 327 Scenario: Misinformation Moats
315 Security 328 Cybersecurity Terms Every
Executive Should Know
317 Security Breaches from 2020
331 Application
319 Bio-Cyberattacks
332 Key Questions
319 Biometric Malware
333 Sources
319 DNA Database Hacks
319 Cyber Homicide
+ COVID-19 accelerated the use of + 75% of businesses do not involve

biometric data collection sys- their boards of directors in cyber-
tems. security oversight.
+ Companies that allowed employ- + Cyberattacks cost the world

ees to work from home created economy an estimated $445
Privacy
new privacy and cybersecurity billion, or almost 1% of global
vulnerabilities. income, according to the Center
for Strategic and International
+ The attack on the U.S. Capitol Studies.
led to an unprecedented amount
of cybersleuthing—everyday + Hackers increasingly look for sen-
people finding and posting the sitive intellectual property (busi-
& Security
identities of insurgents online. ness communications, vaccine
code, DNA records).
+ There was a dramatic increase
in Internet of Things scams and + Cybersecurity risk areas this year
attacks, as hackers took advan- include health care, pharmaceu-
tage of employees and students ticals, advanced materials and
Summary
working from their own devices manufacturing, retail, munici-
and home networks, which are palities, and military technology
rarely secure. suppliers.

Privacy
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Privacy and Security Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Privacy
COVID-19 pushed more activity online Industry-specific data privacy laws exist, • Dr. Nicol Turner Lee, director of the
Data is one of a com- and accelerated measures to track and such as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, Brookings Institution’s Center for
pany’s most important trace cases, but as a result, many coun- which requires financial institutions Technology Innovation
tries relaxed data protections, increased to safeguard consumer data, while the
assets. Our modern • Electronic Frontier Foundation
biometric recognition, and forced citizens Health Insurance Portability and Ac-
economy relies on min- into location monitoring. The result: countability Act covers patient and • Jennifer Granick, surveillance and
cybersecurity counsel at the American
ing, refining, and mak- Untold volumes of personal information personal health data. However, in the past
Civil Liberties Union’s Speech, Privacy,
were exposed to the internet ecosystem. few years, companies and government
ing use of data, whether Prior to the pandemic, efforts were un- agencies have learned the hard way how and Technology Project
it comes from the sup- derway to curtail surveillance capitalism, important data privacy, transparency, and • Dr. Arvind Narayanan, associate pro-
ply chain or an individ- thanks to the 2018 Cambridge Analytica trust really are. Employers are requiring fessor of computer science at Princeton
scandal and the 2019 revelations that remote worker tracking software pro- University, and affiliate, Center for
ual’s personal activi- Clearview AI had scraped billions of grams, schools are insisting on online Information Technology Policy
ties. Actively governing images for a facial recognition database. proctoring and health tracking apps, and
• Future of Privacy Forum
Bipartisan privacy bills were underway, millions use Zoom, which for a while
how data is collected, including one proposed by U.S. Sen. wasn’t encrypted. This year, we will likely • Center for Democracy and Technology
cleaned, shared, used, Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) to create a see fragmentation in privacy laws, as • BitSight
and stored is critically new data protection agency—since the governments chase after big platforms
• Eclypsium
U.S. is one of the few democracies with- (TikTok, Reddit, Snapchat, Twitter,
The U.K.’s COVID-19 contact tracing app.
important. out one. The pandemic shifted priorities, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Signal, • ClearDATA
and surveillance apps became key to get YouTube) and ask them to disclose their • BlackRidge Technology
our economies humming again. data harvesting and sharing practices.

Privacy Trends
Trackers Everywhere used in the future. Just 6% of Americans clues in criminal cases, and explore or
Nearly every website and mobile app con- believe their data are more secure today debunk conspiracies. The core concept
tains some form of invisible tracking code than in the past, while 62% don’t believe isn’t particularly novel; find one of its
that collects user data in order to build it’s possible to go through daily life with- origins in the anonymous tip lines like
rich profiles for advertising. As invasive out companies collecting data on them. Crime Stoppers that gained popularity
as that sounds, advertising revenue is At least 79%, however, are concerned in the ’70s, or the “Unsolved Mysteries”
what keeps the internet free. Outside of about how companies use their data. If TV series, which premiered in 1987. But
national governments, tracking compa- this doesn’t sound alarming, consider the with the emergence of social networks
nies house the biggest repositories of data. impact: 48% of consumers have stopped and digitized media, public involvement
The data points collected are well beyond buying from a company over privacy has increased exponentially and become
names and home addresses; companies concerns. more complex and consequential. The
know which emails you open, what steps phenomenon demonstrates (in theory)
you take after opening them, and whether Crowdsleuthing the long-standing principle of the “wis-
you are likely to complete an online pur- dom of the crowd,” which postulates that
Crowdsleuthing is the practice of internet the collective opinions and assertions of
chase. For now, tracking is only regulated users banding together, typically unbid-
in the European Union and California. a group are more reliable, sensible, or
den, in an attempt to solve mysteries morally sound than those of any its indi-
and crimes (and occasionally take justice viduals—two heads are better than one, in
Emphasizing Data Ethics into their own hands). From assisting other words. One of the most prominent
Consumers are increasingly aware that the authorities in identifying criminals cases of crowdsleuthing happened in the
their data are being scraped and used, and to helping romantics track down missed days following the attack on the U.S. Cap-
ProPublica, a nonprofit investigative news organization, published hundreds of videos posted to alt-right
they are starting to demand transparency. connections, everyday people are rallying itol, when tens of thousands of internet
social network Parler. Screenshots from videos posted to Parler show the unfolding events at the U.S. Capi-
tol on Jan. 6. Companies should be prepared to explain around investigative causes, boosting users mounted an in-depth investigation
Images courtesy of ProPublica. the use, storage, and reselling of consum- their visibility and calling upon collective of digital assets—videos, texts, photos,
er data, and how consumer data could be brainpower and specialized expertise to geotags—posted by insurgents. Within
work out complex problems, uncover two weeks, more than 70,000 tips had

Privacy Trends
been called in to the Federal Bureau of screenshots throughout the day. More very far behind, especially those not under es a significant headache for compliance
Investigation and police. But while these invasive programs log keystrokes. Zoom, the level of regulatory scrutiny applied to officers and risk managers, who must
crowds of “digilantes” can serve as a valu- among other video conference systems, industries like finance and health care. ensure that the policies and procedures for
able resource when uninterested, under- offers attention tracking metrics, which governments, companies, nonprofits, and
staffed, or inept law enforcement agencies shows administrators if anyone navi- Compliance Challenges and news organizations are current.
come up short—they’ve even successfully gated away to a different application or Unrealistic Budgets
assisted in solving some murder cases— webpage for longer than 30 seconds. Drone Surveillance
they sometimes cause more harm than Companies must consider the privacy The historical tension between security
good. Whether it’s amateurs posing as of their employees as they work from and privacy will unleash new challenges Drones come in all shapes and sizes, and
experts or ideologue conspiracy theorists home, and should be transparent about in the near future. Consumers shed more they can be used in a variety of settings
or bad actors looking to spread misinfor- what systems are being used. data each day, and as more connected for surveillance. Advanced camera
mation for personal gain or to undermine devices enter the marketplace, the volume technology can capture photos and video
others, they all illustrate the perils inher- of available data will balloon. Yet those from 1,000 feet away, while machine
Data Retention Policies organizations creating devices and man- learning software can remotely identify
ent in crowdsourced crime-solving.
A data retention policy is a formalized aging consumer data aren’t planning for who we are and lock on to our bodies as
protocol for retaining information, and future scenarios. Managers will need to we move around—all without our knowl-
Remote Worker Monitoring historically companies have enacted them develop and continually update their secu- edge. They can also intercept mobile
Employees are data subjects too. As for compliance. Now that companies rity policies—and they’ll need to make the phone calls, gather license plate informa-
millions worked from home during the regularly use consumer and other sources details transparent. Most organizations tion, and determine whether someone is
pandemic, companies launched manda- of data, they are starting to build policies aren’t devoting enough dollars to secur- carrying a weapon. Powered by artificial
Origin Wireless AI uses Wi-Fi sensing engines to tory monitoring systems and installed that are more protective. Regulatory ing their data and devices. Organizations intelligence (AI), Skydio X2 is built for
detect activities of daily living, monitor sleep,
tracking software on work-issued frameworks such as the General Data that haven’t carved out enough budget to first responders and enterprise use—it has
notice falls, and send alerts to caregivers.
computers to track productivity and, of Protection Regulation (GDPR) and secure their Internet of Things (IoT) envi- thermal sensors and night flight capabil-
course, monitor security. Programs ask the California Consumer Privacy Act ronment will find themselves dealing with ities, allowing it to collect data for asset
employees to self-report time spent on (CCPA) are forcing companies to update vast recalls, remediation, and lawsuits. A inspection, security patrol, and situa-
tasks, while other systems take random their policies. But most companies are still fragmented regulatory landscape promis- tional awareness. Early in the pandemic,

Privacy Trends
Chinese municipalities were using drones is one of the key factors for sleep moni- supervised facility immediately). Other regulations this year due to changes in data ownership remained key topics of
to spy on neighborhood blocks; if citizens toring and respiratory rate variability. countries, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and government administration and vaccines. conversation, with some policymakers
broke curfew and stayed outside too long, Norway, developed countrywide tracing and CEOs advocating for a new paradigm
drones would fly low to physically intim- Contact Tracing apps that didn’t do a good job of ano- Fragmented Approaches to in which consumers would “own” their
idate them, forcing them back into their nymizing data stored on central servers. Privacy and Data Ownership data. Others recommended a model in
homes. (See: Drones.) Governments must track the spread of India launched a compulsory nationwide which consumer data would be treated as
COVID-19 and its mutations, and that app, but it too had data privacy risks. Who, exactly, owns our data is a topic a public good. The regulatory environ-
has led to a new purpose for mobile sur- As the virus continues to affect millions of great concern worldwide. The rea- ment will only grow more fragmented in
Non-Line-of-Sight Tracking veillance applications. While traditional son: Defining ownership would have
worldwide, contact tracing will be a pub- the coming year.
The Wi-Fi transmitter in your home or contact tracing involved interviewing lic health priority in 2021, notwithstand- huge ramifications on what can be done
office is continually sending and receiving patients using a tedious script and asking with our data, who could gain access to CCPA came into effect in January 2020, to
ing privacy risks. govern how businesses collect and share
information, which it converts into radio them to recall recent interactions, the it, and how it could be monetized. In a
waves. The signals aren’t very strong, personal information in California, and
mobile apps take advantage of a phone’s legal sense, data ownership has typically
only filling up the space around you (and GPS data and Bluetooth signals. Within Data Privacy Enforcement referred to IP or copyright data. However, GDPR is now being enforced. Illinois has
possibly spilling just outside to the street). seconds, a contract tracing app would Returns the rise of wearable smart devices and IoT a restrictive state law on the books pre-
venting automatic face recognition and
It turns out that, with the right device, not only detect who is within an infected When laws like GDPR came into effect, have made people more aware of how
it’s possible to detect us moving through person’s proximity, it would also have the focus was on fines and enforcement. their behavior, health statistics, and online tagging, but if you cross the border into
the signals as they bounce off us and onto historical locations and could send notifi- The fear of violating the law worked to activity are collected and monetized by Indiana, there are much more lax restric-
other objects. What this means in prac- cations. In China, Alibaba and Tencent make responsible businesses comply. large companies. You do not own the tions on collecting and using an adult’s
tice: Wi-Fi signals can be harnessed to worked with the government to develop However, conflicting local and national site analytics that these tech giants make data. With a new administration in the
recognize us and our movements through a color-coded tracking system and mobile laws, along with Covid-related work available to you, and you don’t own any White House and a Democratic majority
our walls. Origin Wireless AI uses Wi-Fi phone app, which required citizens to from home practices, prompted com- messages sent on a company email server in Congress, we expect to see a baseline
sensing in its home security products. enter their national ID numbers, health panies to eschew compliance in recent or in your Slack channel. In a world privacy law implemented in the U.S.
Its Breathing AI Engine captures the data, travel history, and more; the app months. We are nonetheless likely to where every device is smart and connect-
slightest chest movements using standard then displayed a green (safe), yellow see a return to strict enforcement and ed, surveillance is constant and ownership
Wi-Fi. Understanding breathing patterns (self-quarantine), or red (report to a renewed calls for national-level privacy is unclear. For the past year, privacy and

Privacy Trends
Privacy and Unionizing at Big Tech lines on how these networks can and
Amazon employees started an anti-sur- should be used at work. For example,
veillance petition in 2020 with a singular a company may determine that emails
message: “Stop spying on us.” The call to are its intellectual property and subject
action stemmed from reports that Ama- to professional codes of conduct; what
zon-owned Whole Foods was tracking about messages sent through encrypted
and scoring employees it deemed risky of networks? In reaction to revelations
unionizing. Scores were based on more about social media hacks and govern-
than 24 metrics, including racial diversity, ment-sponsored surveillance programs
employee loyalty, and violations reported worldwide, private networks will contin-
to the Occupational Safety and Health ue to be popular in 2021.
Administration. Hundreds of Goo-
gle employees similarly complained of Biological Privacy
surveillance as they attempted to orga- Open source genealogy website GED-
nize. The new union, formed within the match allows users to voluntarily share
company’s ranks and called the Alphabet their genetic profiles for free, as a way
Workers Union, was kept secret un- to find relatives and trace their genealo-
til the group elected its leadership and gies. Law enforcement used GEDmatch
forged an allyship with the Communica- to track down Joseph James DeAngelo,
tions Workers of America. the suspected Golden State Killer who
over a period of years raped 45 women
New surveillance technologies are active around the world.
Encrypted Messaging Networks and killed more than a dozen people. He
In the past year, journalists have relied never sent in a biological sample, but
on closed, encrypted messaging networks it turns out that someone connected to
like Keybase and Signal. However, many him did. In another case, a genetic test
news organizations do not have guide- led to a Utah high school student’s arrest
Privacy Trends
after his saliva on a discarded milk carton Personal Electronic Keys Florida, Delaware, Indiana, New Jersey, versions of GDPR. We anticipate the Preventing Digital
matched a blood sample at a crime scene. Companies such as Tesla and Audi now Rhode Island, and Wisconsin package U.S. launching an effort to standard- Self-Incrimination
If someone you know—or someone rely more on electronic keys for vehicle and sell driver data. Technically this is ize privacy regulation under the Biden Whether they’re using a connected
who might in some way be connected entry. Audi’s 2022 all-electric E-tron asks legal, under the 1994 Driver’s Privacy administration. fitness device, a smart earphone, or a
to you—submits their information to each driver to create a user profile. When Protection Act, which was initially meant pair of smart glasses, consumers will find
an open source website, it can be traced connected to the Audi app, the car can be to limit public access to personal data Eavesdropping Rights themselves continuously monitoring—
back to you. Meanwhile, new cameras remotely monitored—even when some- after the gruesome murder of a woman and being monitored—by third parties.
are being deployed to detect Covid cases. whose stalker found her using DMV Should consumers be given the right to
one else is driving it. Similarly, the Lockly eavesdrop on what their own devices are Our legal system isn’t keeping pace with
Bosch security cameras include integrated Duo smart lock allows users to create records. But with many exceptions to the technology, so we lack norms, standards,
intelligent video analysis, showing body act, just about anyone can lawfully gain saying, and who else is listening in? As
multiple profiles for friends and family, we connect more IoT devices—fitness and case law on how data collected from
temperature. Its open camera platform includes a shuffling keypad—picture a access in certain states. and produced by our wearables can be
uses computer vision to determine the trackers, mobile phones, cars, coffee
screen with digital buttons that rearrange makers—tthey’re learning about us, start- used. To date, fitness devices, pacemak-
number of people in a space who are after each use—and requires fingerprints GDPR Copycats ers, and smartwatches have been used as
complying with coronavirus restrictions. ing to talk to one another about us, and
for added security. The year 2021 marks the third anniver- reporting everything to the companies evidence. In the U.S., judges get to decide
sary of GDPR. When it went into effect, that make them. News and entertain- whether to allow data from wearable
Depth of Field Recognition Public Entities Selling Private Data companies were understandably anxious ment companies must determine wheth- devices, or whether individuals still have
3D cameras that have good depth of about compliance. Microsoft dedicated er those devices, working as intermedi- a reasonable expectation of privacy if
A number of public departments sell per- they’ve been actively sharing their fitness
field—which were originally intended for sonal data in the U.S. In 2019, California’s more than 1,600 engineers to work on aries, are crossing any ethical lines when
content creation—are being repurposed as GDPR compliance projects, while Google consumer data is exchanging hands. As stats in the cloud or with third parties.
DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles) But we’re about to see a flurry of new
surveillance systems. 3D cameras along- reportedly earned $51 million. As of this Chief Privacy Officer Keith Enright esti- the Biden administration strengthens the
side LiDAR can generate rich images, mated that Google had spent “hundreds federal agencies charged with monitor- cases. Hundreds of people who stormed
report’s writing, local lawmakers had not the U.S. Capitol posted content, emitted
wireframes, and more. determined whether consumer protec- of years of human time” to comply with ing consumer protections, we anticipate
the European Union rules. In January changes to existing rules in 2021 (at least geodata, and made phone calls, all of
tions should be extended, nor the kinds of which could be used as evidence in crimi-
companies that bought the data. DMVs in 2020, CCPA went into effect, and other in the U.S.).
countries are now developing their own nal proceedings.

Privacy Trends
Differential Privacy useful insights. Google has a differen- complained about being targeted online scheme of fraud and money laundering. considered damaging to national security.
Differential privacy as a mathematical tial privacy library on GitHub. But it is and shamed for their beliefs in debunked The International Consortium of Investi- Media organizations like The New York
concept has been around since 2006, important to remember this method is conspiracy theories, such as QAnon, and gative Journalists (ICIJ)—a collaboration Times and The Guardian created secure
when Cynthia Dwork, Frank McSherry, still evolving. Depending on applications they were validated by former Presi- between 370 journalists from 76 coun- sections on their websites where people
Kobbi Nissim, and Adam Smith first and datasets, differential privacy is harder dent Donald Trump. We don’t yet have tries—took on a sweeping investigation can safely upload sensitive documents
developed this new approach, also known to maintain when variables are correlated. clear definitions for what constitutes of Isabel dos Santos, the billionaire and to journalists, and now, political action
as “epsilon indistinguishability.” Dwork Plus, at the moment, there is scant regula- harassment. In the years ahead, we will former first daughter of Angola. Angola’s groups and activists are seeking confiden-
once explained that differential privacy tory guidance. continue to wrestle with what behavior top prosecutor has since accused her of tial document leaks too. Most recently, in
is achieved when “the outcome of any is acceptable in virtual gaming worlds, embezzlement, influence peddling, harm- the aftermath of the U.S. Capitol insur-
analysis is essentially equally likely, inde- Defining Online Harassment social media, our mobile exchanges, and ful management, forgery of documents, gence, hackers infiltrated the alt-right
pendent of whether any individual joins, general digital discourse. and other so-called economic crimes. social network Parler and released a trove
The #MeToo movement brought to light Previously, the ICIJ spent a year reporting of user data. You can expect to see more
or refrains from joining, the dataset.” thousands of stories of sexual harassment
Differential privacy is achieved by strate- Safeguarding and Verifying on a massive cache of 11.5 million leaked coordinated efforts to seek and produce
and resulted in the ousting of more than a records showing the offshore holdings of leaked data in 2021 and beyond.
gically introducing random noise into the dozen high-profile men throughout 2018 Leaked Data
dataset. It is most useful when answering 140 politicians from around the world,
and 2019. A shared Google document, Many social movements worldwide including 12 current and former world
simple (low-sensitivity) queries. It’s good dubbed the “Shitty Media Men” list, was encourage the leaking of sensitive infor-
for finding out traffic patterns in Google leaders, and more. The records, known
at one point circulating among female mation to the press, to hackers, and to as the Panama Papers, were sent from a
Maps, the most popular emoji for iPhone journalists, who entered the details of other governments. While many people
users, and ride-sharing trends across little-known law firm in Panama. In 2017,
men who had sexually harassed women in seem eager to find and share informa- the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland
Uber’s global network while keeping the real world. When the list was leaked, tion, not everyone agrees on what should
individual user behavior anonymous. Security and Governmental Affairs issued
some pointed the finger at the women, be published, and by whom. In January a report titled “State Secrets: How an Av-
Apple’s privacy-minded machine learning arguing that they were committing acts 2020, a massive leak involving more than
relies on differential privacy: It allows the alanche of Media Leaks Is Harming Na-
of online harassment simply by contrib- 700,000 documents implicated one of tional Security” and cited 125 stories with
company to extract data from iPhones uting to it. Far-right extremists have Africa’s wealthiest people in a massive
and anonymize it while still drawing leaked information that the committee

Full (Human) Autonomy Regional Privacy Uncrossable Borders

Challenges
Mid-future optimistic scenario Mid-future neutral scenario Mid-future catastrophic scenario

Cars with autonomous driving functionality that Vehicles have regional requirements but are Fragmentation of regulation and data privacy
takes full control of the vehicle (but still requires interoperable at the continental level. Cars in causes a complete lack of interoperability. You
driver oversight) are mainstream. Multiple Europe can function throughout most of the can’t take a car designed for one state to the next
manufacturers provide the option to have auton- European Union and vehicles in America can due to regulations that limit design, features,
omous driving installed in new cars as a safety operate across most states. Standardized produc- and functionality. Car manufacturers are forced
and convenience feature. Customers receive tion looks very similar to the manufacturing and to design platforms and brands for specific
full control of their data and privacy safeguards internet privacy rules of the early 2020s, where jurisdictions. This prevents the ability to have
installed by manufacturers, and can easily delete products can be made globally and customized standardized worldwide platforms in manufac-
data from cars when they’re resold in the pre- locally. The implementation of privacy protocols turing, driving up production costs, dramatically
owned market. Rules and regulations are unified therefore falls to each region, and is voted on by decreasing the speed of improvements, and
across the globe, so learnings from driving on its constituents. extending development cycles exponentially. You
one side of the world can immediately be used to have to stop at every border and create a new
improve driving on the opposite side. account for your car with additional information
and accept the terms and conditions of operating
the vehicle in the next jurisdiction. Certain fea-
tures and functions are enabled or disabled based
on where you are traveling and what terms and
conditions you accept, and your insurance may
only cover you in some areas and circumstances.

China’s Panopticon
China collects massive amounts of pioneering myriad recognition technol- has maintained that it is an independent
data—on its own citizens and on oth- ogies, including a system that provides company and announced changes in
ers (people, businesses, governments) advertisers real-time feedback on what September it hoped would satisfy the
around the world. The Chinese Com- people are watching, technologies that U.S. government. These included giving
munist Party (CCP) places a priority on can extract customer information and Oracle and Walmart ownership stakes
data for intelligence, propaganda, and carry out statistical analysis in crowded in the company, but several botched
surveillance. areas like shopping malls and supermar- attempts by the former Trump adminis-
The CCP collects data through typical kets, and simultaneous recognition of tration to ban the app were thwarted in
channels, such as security cameras everything in a scene, whether it’s peo- federal court.
in public spaces and social networks. ple, pets, automobiles, trees, or soda cans. This isn’t about nudging consumers to
But its reach is staggering: The gov- A little-known company called Global buy more products. Security experts
ernment scrapes data from smart city Tone Communication Technology, warn that TikTok, as well as other
infrastructure, school records systems, which is controlled by the CCP, re- Chinese apps like messaging service
e-commerce apps, payment systems, and portedly collects 10 terabytes of data WeChat and payment system AliPay,
more. The country’s massive popula- every day from various online sources. are dangerous conduits for CCP surveil-
tion—nearing 1.4 billion people—offers That’s the equivalent of about 20 billion lance and disinformation campaigns.
researchers and startups access to a Instagram photos. The company has The CCP is interested in exerting au-
wellspring of data without the privacy boasted about being able to mine data in thoritarian control over its citizens and
and security restrictions common in 65 languages simultaneously at a rate of those wishing to do business in China.
much of the rest of the world. If data 16,000 words per second. The CCP is cleverly using capitalism as
is the new oil, then China is the new One of its data sources is an app beloved a gateway to amass rich user profiles,
OPEC. Bulk data collection is used to by people around the world: TikTok. thwart challenges to free speech, and
A Global Tone Communication Technology director stands at a podium in front of a screen reading: train recognition algorithms, which is This is partly what has governments maintain control.
“90% of military-level intelligence can be obtained … through open-source data.”
why China has some of the world’s lead- concerned about the growing popu-
Photo courtesy of Dr. Samantha Hoffman.
ing voice, face, and gesture recognition larity of the social video sharing app.
systems. Chinese startup SenseTime is ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company,

Privacy Protection Startups

When personal information is weaponized, efforts to
protect it prove profitable. A new crop of vigilante
startups help you protect yourself—for a price. These
startups offer new products and services that obscure
your identity, create false data to misdirect platforms,
and generate white noise to prevent your devices from
eavesdropping. They even create digital safe boxes
around your online profiles to prevent platforms and
people from selling you out. The combined effect of
real risk and rampant paranoia among users ensures
that privacy stays a lucrative business.

Security
Security
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES used by 330,000 companies and organi- removing the domains used by the mal-
COVID-19 played a role in new forms zations. The National Security Agency ware for command and control, updating
From a security stand- of cyberattacks. Companies switched to and FBI say that Russia was likely behind the anti-malware capabilities built into
point, 2020 was the remote work overnight, yet hospitals, the attack and likely had access to critical Windows, and automatically quarantin-
data for months before being detected. ing systems with malware detected.
worst year on record. schools, city halls, and businesses had
Nearly all Fortune 500 companies use
security gaps that hackers exploited. IT
From compromised teams rushed to ensure files, software, SolarWinds products to monitor their
high-profile social me- and databases were accessible for remote networks, but so do government agencies
work, but as many as 93% of IT teams (U.S. Department of Homeland Security,
dia accounts to the parts of the Pentagon), defense contrac-
delayed security projects, and 43% have
most significant cyber- since delayed or stopped patching alto- tors (Boeing), and important research
attack in modern his- gether, according to a survey by security agencies (Los Alamos National Labo-
management provider Tanium. And 85% ratory, where our nuclear weapons are
tory, chief information designed). The attack was sophisticated
of IT teams have seen more cyberattacks
security officers found since the pandemic’s start, and thieves and difficult to undo, and it compromised
themselves addressing stole confidential information, pass- critical infrastructure.
existing problems while words, addresses, and other records. In Hackers penetrated a server used to
other cases, hospital records systems, city build updates for the SolarWinds Orion
trying to anticipate se- websites, and school email servers were Platform, and used that server to insert
curity challenges on the penetrated and held for ransom. backdoor malware into products used by
horizon. Last year, attackers breached what’s Microsoft and FireEye. Microsoft quickly
SolarWinds marked one of the worst supply chain known as the security supply chain by and decisively mitigated the damage by
attacks in history.
infiltrating SolarWinds, an IT contractor mobilizing to remove digital certificates,

Security continued
A company’s information assets, data, • Russian Foreign Intelli-

and technology are its critical infrastruc- gence Service
ture, yet cybersecurity is a continuously • U.S. Cybersecurity and
moving target. The price tag to secure a Infrastructure Agency
company’s data and IT infrastructure is
• WireGuard VPN
minimal compared to the cost of breach.
The average total cost of a data breach is • Palantir Technologies
$3.86 million, according to IBM’s annu- • Darktrace
al Cost of a Data Breach Report, and it • Nuance Communications
can take months to identify and contain
an attack. Securing IT resources from • Sonatype
malicious actors is paramount in the years • Deep Instinct
ahead. • Qualys
• Fortinet
• Securiti.AI
Clear Health Pass uses biometric data to monitor people in public places.

Security continued
A very brief list of 2020 attacks and breaches.
January February March April June

• Cyberattack: A Chinese group target- • Ransomware attack: Toll Group, an • Cyber espionage: Chinese hackers • Cyberattack: U.S. officials reported • Data breach: The Nova Scotia Health
ed Mitsubishi in a massive cyberattack Australia-based logistics company, was targeted more than 75 organizations seeing a surge of attacks by Chinese Authority discovered that 3,000 patients
that compromised the personal data of attacked twice in three months. around the world in the manufactur- hackers against health care providers, had their personal health information
8,000 individuals, as well as informa- ing, media, health care, and nonprofit pharmaceutical manufacturers, and the stolen.
tion relating to partnering businesses • Cyberattack: Chinese hackers target- sectors as part of a broad-ranging cyber U.S. Department of Health and Human
and government agencies—including ed Malaysian government officials to espionage campaign. Services amid the COVID-19 pandemic. • DDoS attack: Amazon Web Services
defense equipment projects. steal data related to government-backed mitigated a massive 2.3 Tbps DDoS
projects in the region. • Data breach: Hackers breached the attack.
• Ransomware: The Tampa Bay Times anonymous social media app Whisper, May
• Data breach: Hackers exposed 440
was hit with “Ryuk,” a ransomware which lets people share secrets, exposing • Ransomware: Hackers breached health July
strain used to target large businesses and million internal records at Estée Lauder millions of users’ private profiles and care insurance giant Magellan Health
agencies. due to middleware security failures. datasets. and exfiltrated the logins, personal • Data breach: A 17-year-old breached
information, and tax information of Twitter, hacking dozens of high-profile
• Ransomware attack: Tillamook • Data breach: The Defense Informa- • Data breach: More than 5 million
365,000 patients. accounts, including former President
County in Oregon had its computer and tion Systems Agency, which handles IT Marriott guests had their information Barack Obama, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos,
for the White House, admitted a data
telephone systems taken offline. taken when a hacker gained access to • Cyberattack: Japan’s Defense Ministry and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.
breach potentially compromised em- guest records using the login credentials announced it was investigating a large-
• Cyberattack: An Iranian-sponsored ployee records. of two employees at franchise properties. • Cyberattack: Navigation systems pro-
scale cyber attack against Mitsubishi
threat actor hacked a U.S. federal gov- vider Garmin was attacked; its devices
• Data breach: Clearview AI’s contro- Electric that could have compromised
ernment library depository website to and systems were forced offline.
versial client list was stolen due to a details of new state-of-the-art missile
display messages vowing to avenge the
software vulnerability. designs.
killing of Qasem Soleimani, a military
general. It also displayed an image of • Data breach: Chinese hackers accessed
former President Trump being punched the travel records of 9 million customers
in the face. of U.K. airline group EasyJet.

Security continued
A very brief list of 2020 attacks and breaches.
August October November • Vulnerability: A website created by December

• Ransomware: An online gang known • Direct-to-consumer ransomware • Data breach: Hackers exposed the consultancy Deloitte titled “Test Your
• Cyberattack: FireEye disclosed an at-
as “Maze” hit Canon with a ransomware attack: Vastaamo, a psychotherapy personal data of 16 million Brazilian Hacker IQ” inadvertently exposed the tack resulting in penetration tools (code
attack. center in Finland, had confidential Covid patients online after breaching database username and password in its that can be used to breach computer
patient records stolen. In a unique twist, two Brazillian government databases. configuration files. The site was hosted systems, or test for and detect breaches)
• Leak: 20 gigabytes of sensitive Intel hackers went straight to the patients and Among those affected by the leak were on an older version of Ubuntu, aLinux being stolen.
corporate data was leaked online. blackmailed them directly. Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro, seven system that no longer received secu-
ministers, and 17 provincial governors. rity patches. Deloitte later said that it • Ransomware: Hackers crippled the dig-
September • DDoS attack: Google mitigated a 2.54 was a legacy site created for an event; ital systems of the city of New Orleans.
Tbps DDoS attack, one of the largest • Data breach: Hackers breached the however, it was never removed. (This
• Cyber homicide: In Germany, a ever recorded. Christian faith app Pray.com, leaking is a good reminder that legacy content • Bio-Cyberattack: Hackers accessed
patient died after being redirected away private data of 10 million users. Finan- can cause future security headaches for data related to the Covid vaccine being
from a hospital that was in the middle of cial information was one of the key companies.) developed by Pfizer during an attack on
an active ransomware infiltration. gets in this attack: Donations processed the European Medicines Agency.
by the app show how and when users • Data breach: Folksam, one of Sweden’s
contributed. largest insurance companies, shared the
personal information—including preg-
nancies and other intimate details—of 1
million Swedes with third parties.

Security Trends
Bio-Cyberattacks Several of those images were posted to itage. Sensitive DNA information could Supply Chain Attacks
With the global COVID-19 pandemic the dark web. There have been plenty be used for a number of purposes, from Cybersecurity has its own supply chain,
forcing fast coordination by government of attacks in recent years, including the blackmail to government espionage. which includes IT services, vendors,
agencies, researchers, and pharmaceu- emergence of a tool in 2018 that scraped software, networks, and data. The Solar-
tical companies, vaccine data became a photos from social media and used them Cyber Homicide Winds attack last year is an example of
new target for cyberattacks. Hackers are to launch sophisticated phishing attacks. a supply chain attack, because it com-
Malware called CamuBot targeted Brazil- The first-known death resulting from a
working to gain access related to Covid cyberattack happened in 2020. Intending promised the systems management tools
research, genetic code, and vaccines. In ian bank customers, bypassing biometric used by IT professionals. It was a prime
hardware protections for device takeover. to extort money from Düsseldorf Univer-
December 2020, hackers penetrated the sity, attackers locked its local computer target—breaching the supply chain meant
European Medicines Agency, stealing Using biometrics to keep people safe potentially gaining access to hundreds of
while they travel or during the pandemic network—which included the computers
data related to the vaccine developed by at the university hospital. At that mo- thousands of companies and government
Pfizer. could also put them in greater danger. agencies. In a supply chain attack, hackers
When ESPN cut to the draft headquarters of Bill ment, a woman who needed immediate
Belichick, head coach of the New England Patri-
surgery couldn’t be seen, which resulted infiltrate your systems through an outside
ots, during the second round of the virtual 2020 DNA Database Hacks
Biometric Malware in her being transferred to another hospi- partner that has access to your data.
NFL draft, his dog—an Alaskan Klee Kai named
Nike—was seated all alone by two laptops. As more consumers send their saliva tal. Time ran out, and she died. Hospitals Nearly every company must use outside
Kaspersky researchers found that in the hardware and software—it would be
Photo courtesy of Twitter.com/katfominykh. third quarter of 2019 alone, about 33% of away for genetic testing, the need for rely on computerized machinery, logis-
secure DNA databases has never been tics, and transportation systems. Taking impossible to build everything a modern
the systems that use and store biometric company needs from scratch—and reli-
data were targets of malware attacks. as important. In July 2020, hackers them offline for a ransomware attack,
were able to access GEDmatch, a DNA even for a few hours, causes real-world ance on outsiders requires tight security.
Biometric data isn’t stored as securely as Security is only as good as its weakest
it should be, opening the door to theft database, which resulted in the genetic harm. Security experts are increasingly
profiles of 1 million users being searched concerned about accidental incidents, link, and supply chain attacks are growing
and manipulation. We saw that in the in both frequency and sophistication.
U.S. in 2019, when a massive data breach by law enforcement. A few weeks later, as well as those caused intentionally.
compromised 100,000 facial images and hackers used the emails retrieved from Bad actors could take down a hospital’s
105,000 license plate images collected by GEDmatch to launch another attack, this entire computer system just to target one
the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. time on genetic testing company MyHer- patient.

Security Trends
Techlash Leads to Messy Code the site didn’t actually remove deleted neered complex code with novel exploit
and Security Problems posts, and, inconceivably, each post used a systems, revealing new exploit chains.
For the past few years, some social media sequential numerical ID, making it simple (Both companies have since patched
users left big platforms for nascent to scrape data. Geolocations weren’t security flaws.) The zero-day market-
startups that were established quickly and scrubbed, metadata was preserved … we place, where tools are bought and sold, is
with little technical oversight. Anger to- could go on. The result: 80 terabytes of lucrative and growing. Tools to exploit
ward Twitter and Facebook catalyzed the posts, including 1 million videos, were vulnerabilities will be in greater demand
growth of newer entrants, such as Signal made available online. through the near future.
and Telegram, which promised encrypted
private messaging, and Clubhouse, which Zero-Day Exploits Rising Zero-Knowledge Proofs Go
offered private chat rooms that could be A zero-day vulnerability is a flaw—a Commercial
controlled by hosts. Facebook-owned problem within a hardware or software With all the hacking scandals that have
WhatsApp confused its global user base system that developers didn’t discover plagued us in the past several years, we
because of a sloppy announcement about during the testing process. That vulner- will see a transition to something called
data sharing and privacy: It notified users ability can be exploited by malware to zero-knowledge proofs, which allow one
they would get new options to message cause all sorts of problems. Zero-days are party to verify data without conveying
businesses but had to opt in or their dangerous, prized tools, and discovering any additional information. For example,
service would be cut off. (Practically them is a favorite activity of malicious researchers at Microsoft and a handful of
speaking, very little changed, but in the hackers. Once the flaw is revealed, pro- universities are collaborating on Picnic,
haze of confusion, users left in droves and grammers have zero days to do anything which is the code name for a post-quan-
joined Signal and Telegram.) Sloppy code about it. From February through April tum digital signature algorithm, and it
and a mess of security failures allowed a 2020, hackers used zero-days to target uses a zero-proof system. Picnic uses this
Remote employee tracking software was widely deployed in 2020.
hacker to infiltrate Parler, a Twitter clone Microsoft and Google, making use of two concept together with symmetric cryp-
launched by Trump supporters. Parler’s exploit servers: one for Windows and the tography, hash functions, and block ci-
public API didn’t require authentication, other for Android. They used well-engi- phers, to create a novel signature scheme.

Security Trends
It’s a mind-bending approach to security, used surreptitiously to harness everything Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), would un- would come with a cost, however. Kill words. IoT security is bad, and this year
allowing you to verify your identity with- from our webcams to our personal data. dermine privacy and security protections switches would mean that nobody could we are likely to see new threats. Many
out actually revealing who you are. In es- In 2020, Republican lawmakers intro- built into the technologies we use. Given gain access to what’s inside a lost or stolen IoT devices ship with insecure default
sence, this eliminates the need for a com- duced the Lawful Access to Encrypted the rise of zero-day exploits, we should phone—not even law enforcement. settings, which then often remain un-
pany to store private identity data during Data Act, which would result in weaker question whether backdoors are the best changed after the consumers set them up
the verification process. Zero-knowledge encryption in communication services way forward. Low-Cost Malware in their homes. Insecure routers and Wi-
proofs aren’t new, but deploying them to so that law enforcement officials could Fi configurations are also problematic.
protect our digital identities is an emerg- gain access to devices with a warrant. Older malware is being remixed and Attackers might find a way into a com-
Remote Kill Switches used for new purposes. For example, two
ing application, especially in the wake of Government officials worldwide have pany database or hijack your smart TV
increased telemedicine and remote work. been advocating for a set of “golden As our technology becomes more im- older types of malware enabled a remote for ransom the day before a big televised
JPMorgan Chase is using zero-knowl- keys,” to allow law enforcement to break mersive, we’ll have increased needs for administration tool to infect Android event (national elections, Eurovision, the
edge proofs for its enterprise blockchain through the security using backdoors. remote kill switches. Found on smartphones with a keylogger, allowing Super Bowl) and refuse to unlock it until
system, while cryptocurrency startup But even without public agreement, phones and connected devices, these will attackers to monitor the use of websites you’ve paid a fee. Companies that now
Ethereum is using zero-knowledge for some agencies may find their way into soon come in handy for the enterprise and apps. For $29.99, low-level cyber- have legions of employees working from
authentication. Sedicii and SecureAuth our machines. In 2013, NSA made a deal and government agencies. Uber devel- criminals could easily steal usernames and home should closely monitor internet
make and sell zero-proof software. with security company RSA to include a oped its own software program called passwords. service providers (ISPs), smart devices,
flawed algorithm, effectively giving the Ripley, which could be activated by and local network configuration.
NSA a backdoor into various systems. staff in San Francisco, should any of its Consumer IoT Vulnerabilities
Government Requests for overseas offices be raided by police. It also
Backdoor Access The challenge is that the simple act of With the proliferation of smart devices— Sonic Lock Picking
creating a backdoor would leave ordinary deployed uLocker, a remote kill switch
While they sound malicious, backdoors that could lock all company devices, connected speakers, mirrors, and fitness Machine learning is being used to recog-
people vulnerable to everyday attacks by gadgets—and millions of people working
aren’t necessarily bad. Often, developers a wide swath of actors, both benevolent including laptops and phones. On the nize and regenerate sounds, including the
intentionally install them into firmware consumer side, both Apple and Android from home, hackers have a wellspring of sound of someone inserting a key into
and malicious. Tech leaders warn that the new targets in 2021. Especially because
so that manufacturers can safely upgrade proposed act, introduced by then Senate devices now allow users to remotely wipe a lock. The unique sequence of metallic
our devices and operating systems. The all information from their phones and consumers don’t always update firmware, clicks can be deciphered using signal pro-
Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham security patches, or even their pass-
challenge is that backdoors can also be and U.S. Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and tablets using a web interface. That benefit cessing software to replicate the precise

Security Trends
shape of the key shaft in a computer ren- information, insurers will also offer pro- several months or even years to complete, offline, slowing down search, and making
dering program, from which a functional tection against damage to reputation, the and yet the machine that won the Grand its cloud unreachable. It was an example
plastic clone key can then be 3D-printed. loss of operational capacity, and the costs Challenge proved its might in just a frac- of Border Gateway Protocol hijacking
It’s an example of a major vulnerability in for system upgrades. As organizations tion of that time. The winner became the and, while in this case the error was the
legacy security systems that include older develop their next fiscal year budgets, first nonhuman entity to earn the DEF result of an outdated Nigerian ISP, the
safes and traditional locks. they should assess the need for cyber risk CON’s Black Badge, which is the hacking incident points to a vulnerability in our
insurance. community’s equivalent of an Oscar. Very web infrastructure. We anticipate new
Data Theft Becomes Data soon, malicious actors will create auton- cases of internet traffic hijacking in 2021,
Manipulation AI-Powered Automated Hacking omous systems capable of automatically especially as people continue to socially
Systems learning new environments, exposing distance indoors and stream content.
Rather than malicious actors simply vulnerabilities and flaws, and then
Biometric security features are coming to many
devices in 2021. stealing data, you can expect to see new Thanks to advancements in AI, one of exploiting them for gain—or whatever
kinds of attacks in 2021 involving hackers the big trends in security is automated DDoS Attacks on the Rise
the stated objective, which could simply
accessing and then manipulating data for hacking—in short, software that’s built be generalized mayhem. This could pose A distributed-denial-of-service (DDoS)
long-term damage. The implications are to out-hack the human hackers. The a significant threat to news, eSports, and attack happens when a hacker sends so
more concerning than you might realize Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research entertainment companies. many requests to a battalion of machines
at first: If a company’s vigilance over its Projects Agency launched a Cyber that the entire network goes down. In the
data integrity is cast in doubt, it could Grand Challenge project in 2016, with past several years, the number of DDoS
quickly lose customers and partners. a mission to design computer systems Hijacking Internet Traffic attacks have spiked—and they are increas-
capable of beating hackers at their own The protocols underpinning the web ing in both reach and duration. DDoS
Cyber Risk Insurance game. DARPA wanted to show that were written long before we had con- attacks were up 25% last year alone, and
smarter automated systems can reduce nected microwaves and billions of daily public institutions were warned of more
New forms of insurance, intended to help the response time—and develop fixes users. In 2018, hackers created a massive than 50 credible threats. To date, half
businesses protect against hackers, will in system flaws—to just a few seconds. internet traffic diversion, rerouting data of the world’s attacks have originated in
begin to enter the marketplace. Rather Spotting and fixing critical vulnerabilities through China, Nigeria, and Russia. It China. Hackers are using more sophis-
than simply covering the theft of basic is a task that might take a human hacker disrupted Google, taking its business tools ticated tools, which means that future

Security Trends
attacks will be larger in scope and could Ransomware-as-a-Service searchers have already found “doxware” Weird Glitches Open Source App Vulnerabilities
achieve greater impact. Last year, ransomware devastated compa- floating around the internet—rather than Glitches are problems that don’t have The SolarWinds breach gave new atten-
nies and even entire cities. Entertainment just holding your data hostage until you an immediate, obvious cause but none- tion to unintentional vulnerabilities in
Third-Party Verified Identities and news media organizations could be pay up, you face the threat that it could theless can create frustrating problems. code, especially with a booming market
next. In a ransomware attack, hackers all be published to the web, for everyone Glitches are so common now they don’t for malware that exploits vulnerabilities
U.S. citizens must continually hand over to see.
deploy malicious tools to hijack data, ef- always make the news—but there were in open-source applications and software.
their social security numbers for authen-
fectively locking out systems and devices, hundreds in the spring and fall of 2020, As the AI ecosystem grows to incorpo-
tication. But in the wake of the massive
until a fee is paid. Since cash and online Decentralized Hacktivists as students went to virtual school. Online rate more open source code and com-
Equifax data breach, it has become clear
bank transfers are easy to track, the learning platform Blackboard reported munity-built tools, it will be especially
that our social security numbers—a single Hackers-turned-activists have had a that students couldn’t register on the first
identifier used in everything from bank currency of choice is now bitcoin, which busy few years, working for causes they important to spot problems in advance.
day of school and pages loaded slowly.
accounts, to health insurance, even with moves through an encrypted system and believe in. They launched DDoS attacks WhiteSource’s Vulnerability Database
Technical and user errors riddled last
the university registrar—aren’t secure. can’t be traced. The emergence of the against governments, corporations, and continuously updates its library with
year’s NFL draft, held virtually amid the
These numbers were never intended to blockchain and cryptocurrencies have banks. Hacktivist organizations, including emerging threats and available fixes.
pandemic. When cameras cut to Bill
be used as general-purpose passwords. transformed ransomware into a lucra- Anonymous, WikiLeaks, and DC Leaks, Belichick’s home after the New England
We will start to see the emergence of tive business. In 2019, New Orleans was see themselves as enduring forces of Global Cybersecurity Pacts
Patriots selected safety Kyle Dugger, the
third-party, nongovernmental providers one of dozens of cities hit by municipal change. In 2020, Anonymous organized coach had left his table—but his dog was
ransomware attacks. Residents couldn’t In late 2018, more than 50 countries
of verified identities. One example that’s attacks on multiple law enforcement waiting patiently at a computer and star- signed an international agreement on cy-
already in the marketplace is Clear, the pay water bills, email their city represen- websites in support of Black Lives Matter ing into the camera. From customs and
tatives, or schedule trash pickup, among bersecurity principles. Along with those
trusted traveler program that lets verified protesters. Given ongoing heated political border protection terminals going dark
other things. Cities, financial services, countries were more than 200 companies
customers get through airport security tensions, we’ll likely see more operations to technical malfunctions on assembly
and health care organizations have been (Microsoft, Google, and Facebook among
faster. Last year, it announced plans for being carried out this year. Hacktivists lines, glitches affect every industry. They
targeted with the brunt of ransomware them) that committed to end malicious
comprehensive verification for digital will use their skills to help shape local, often result from newer technologies,
attacks because the data and services they cyber activities in peacetime. While the
identity, as well as health and vaccination state, national, and international politics, which break in unexpected ways. And
provide are so valuable. Simply backing agreement was nonbinding, it was an
records. conversations, and business practices. often, glitches stem from not thinking
up your organization’s data won’t be technology through, from imagined use attempt to develop norms and standards
(See: Crowdsleuthing.) for the ways in which countries behave
enough of a fail-safe going forward. Re- cases to actual real-world usage.

Security Trends
in cyberspace. Noticeably absent from transactions nearly impossible. You can’t Bounty Programs information. Our critical financial data
the list of signers: Russia, China, North just hop on to a darknet the way you White hat (read: good hacker) bug and scientific records may be kept on
Korea, Israel, and the United States. But Google your high school sweetheart. To bounty programs are becoming popular. cloud servers at Microsoft, Amazon, and
that could change in 2021. The Biden ad- access the hidden crime bazaars, you need In some cases, businesses solicit friendly Google, but duplicate copies are backed
ministration signaled its focus on cyber- special software such as the Tor Brows- hackers for paid work through platforms up to tape. The problem is that consolida-
security as a top national security policy er or Freenet, you need to know where like HackerOne, which is being used by tion has left us with just two companies—
in January, as it staffed departments with you’re headed, and you do need a bit of the U.S. Department of Defense, Word- Sony and Fujifilm Holdings—that still
appointees. Cybersecurity will be a key technical knowledge. It isn’t illegal to take Press, Coinbase, Shopify, and GitHub. In manufacture tape. For four years, Fujif-
foreign policy issue, a critical national a walk through dark marketplaces. But 2021, HackerOne and the Defense Digital ilm and Sony remained locked in a feud
security issue, and a formal component of there’s also plenty of good activity that Service announced a new bug bounty over alleged patent infringement, which
the new administration’s leadership. takes place in anonymous web portals: program, in which participants attempt to resulted in Sony being banned from im-
Clear announced plans for comprehensive whistleblowers hoping to shine a light on uncover vulnerabilities in the U.S. Army’s porting media tape. The case was settled
verification for digital identity.
Proliferation of Darknets wrongdoing, political dissidents looking digital systems. Verizon Media has paid in the fall, but it caused widespread short-
for asylum, and investigative journalists $9.4 million and resolved nearly 6,000 ages. Tape isn’t a big business unit within
Many people confuse the deep web— hunting down leads. As cryptocurrencies these otherwise sprawling companies,
hidden parts of the internet that aren’t bugs. Google has paid out more than $21
gain popularity, we’re likely to see more million since it launched its bug bounty and this could lead to problems down the
usually indexed by search engines—with activity in darknets. Activists with legiti- road for the world’s data archives, espe-
darknets, which are niche spaces promis- program in November 2010.
mate concerns will advocate for new lay- cially because the creation of critical data
ing anonymity, often for illegal activities. ers of protection, while law enforcement increases significantly each year.
People go there to sell and buy drugs, will receive training on how to navigate Magnetic Tape Supply Shortages
guns, ammunition, security exploits the dark web. For government and law It’s odd to think that in 2021 the world
(malware, ransomware) and your hacked State-sponsored Security
enforcement, the challenge of training is still relies on magnetic tape—those clunky Breaches
data (passwords, credit card numbers, and that unregulated and at times purposely old cartridges used decades ago to store
more). Cryptocurrencies have fueled ac- evasive dark websites are insular and data. And yet that’s still the preferred It’s thought that the SolarWinds sup-
tivity in the dark corners of the internet, ever-changing. Those accessing darknets method of backups for many companies ply chain attack was likely planned and
since they’re encrypted and make tracking are typically also the ones building them. needing to safeguard their most precious facilitated by an elite Russian government

Security Trends
agency, while Russian hackers targeted Critical Infrastructure Targets er grid, targeting staff at nuclear energy as artificial intelligence becomes a focus
more than 20 U.S. states’ voter regis- Every year, cybercriminals target critical facilities with phishing attacks. The U.S. for the nation’s cyber strategy. Eventu-
tration databases leading up to the 2018 infrastructure and facilities, and for years, Computer Emergency Readiness Team ally, artificial intelligence could enhance
elections. But there is evidence that the security experts have warned that hackers issued a sternly worded notice but one offensive operations and replace human
Russian government had a long list of tar- could potentially disable dams, power that lacked an enforcement mechanism, troops, but the agencies face a shortage of
gets that went far beyond American poli- plants, and traffic lights with these at- and it’s clear that the companies and util- gifted hackers willing to join government
ticians running for office. Russian hackers tacks. This past February, it was revealed ities managing our critical infrastructure ranks. That could change with the Biden
targeted thousands of people, from that hackers had remotely accessed the haven’t yet been jolted into action. administration, which is actively promot-
defense contractors at Lockheed Martin water supply of a city near Tampa Bay, ing science and technology as it tries to
and Raytheon, to Ukrainian lawmakers, Florida, and had adjusted the amount of Offensive Government Hacking rebuild trust in the government.
to the pope and his executive team. Rus- lye to levels harmful to humans—for-
There is a global magnetic tape storage. sia is home to some of the world’s most Rather than simply pursuing cyber
tunately the attack was identified and deterrence, governments are more
gifted and prolific hackers. Elite digital thwarted before the tainted water reached
forces in Russia and China are targeting actively engaging offensive positions in
any homes. Another group of hackers hit cyberwarfare. It’s been a decade since the
managed service providers that provide the jackpot during the SolarWinds supply
IT infrastructure. And they aren’t neces- U.S. and Israel joined forces to deploy
chain attack, targeting vital facilities in a devastating worm known as Stuxnet,
sarily covering their tracks as they did in countries around the world. And three
the past. Outside of state-sponsored cyber which took down parts of Iran’s covert
years ago, Russia targeted critical infra- nuclear weapons program. Singapore’s
initiatives, plenty of talented people may structure sectors in the U.S., including
be motivated both by a lack of economic Ministry of Defense is hiring white hat
the power grid—though it’s been trying hackers and security experts to look for
opportunity and weak law enforcement. to gain access to that since at least 2016—
Over time, this has created a perfect critical vulnerabilities in its government
and hackers did gain access to one power and infrastructure systems. In the U.S.,
storm: Enormously talented people, weak plant’s control system. Cybersecurity
laws, and poor economic conditions have the two agencies responsible for cy-
company Symantec has warned that hack- berwarfare—the U.S. Cyber Command
led to a growing pool of talented hackers. ers have already penetrated the U.S. pow- and NSA—are playing offense, especially

Privacy Trends
It’s critical that we step back and assess the significance of these
attacks in their full context. This is not ‘espionage as usual,’ even in the
digital age. Instead, it represents an act of recklessness that created a
serious technological vulnerability for the United States and the world.
In effect, this is not just an attack on specific targets, but on the trust
and reliability of the world’s critical infrastructure in order to advance
one nation’s intelligence agency. While the most recent attack appears
to reflect a particular focus on the United States and many other
democracies, it also provides a powerful reminder that people in
virtually every country are at risk and need protection irrespective of
the governments they live under.
— Brad Smith, president, Microsoft (in response to the FireEye hack)

Misinformation Moats

Pervasive hacking and threats of cyberwarfare inspire a
new wave of cybersecurity solutions. Borrowing from
tactics used in national elections, cybersecurity companies
design strategic layers of misinformation to protect their
clients’ intellectual property. These moats lie just inside
firewalls and act as a second barrier against hackers.
Misinformation moats are filled with bad data, misleading
information, and even malicious software. When hackers
access the moat, they think they’ve found what they’re
looking for, leaving the true payload protected.

Cybersecurity Terms Every Executive Should Know

Access control Authentication Botnet Brute force attack Crypto
A selective restriction that controls A verification process that confirms A botnet is a group of computers that This type of attack is a laborious, me- Cryptography (or “crypto”) is the art
what data users and user groups can the identity of a user based on specific are being controlled by a third party, thodical process where a hacker uses and science of encrypting data—as
access, see, share, and edit. information. and are being used for any number software to automatically guess every well as breaking encryption. (The
of nefarious purposes. For example, password it can to gain unauthorized term is also used as shorthand for the
Adware Backdoor malware installed on your computer entry into a network or computer. cryptocurrency market and its various
Software that automatically generates Developers intentionally install back- can run undetected in the background tokens.)
online ads; it can also include spyware doors into firmware so that manufac- while hackers use your machine as part Bug
that tracks your browsing habits. It’s turers can safely upgrade our devices of a large spamming network. A flaw or problem in a program that CxO spoofing
because of adware that many people are and operating systems. The challenge is can be harmless or might allow hackers Cybercriminals digitally impersonate a
turning to ad blocking software. that backdoors can also be used surrep- Breach to exploit a system. company’s executive leadership team to
titiously to access everything from our The moment a hacker gains access to a gain access to IP, data, or other sensitive
Air gap webcams to our personal data. device or network via a vulnerability. Cloud information.
A system that is physically separated Data storage or computing services that
and isolated from all other computers, Black hat Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) are accessed using remote servers. Cyberattack
networks, and the internet. A malicious hacker; someone who A policy that authorizes employees to An attempt by a bad actor to gain access
hacks for personal gain. use their own devices on the company Cookie to a computer system, device, or net-
Anonymous network or to access company data. A small file sent from your comput- work for the purpose of collecting data,
A collective of hackers, best known Bot er’s web browser to a server. Cookies monitoring activity, or causing damage.
for its use of the Guy Fawkes mask and Bots are automated programs that Browser hijacking help websites recognize you when you
distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) perform a simple task. Some—simple This attack changes a user’s default return, and they also help third parties Dark web
attacks. Anonymous typically uses the chatbots, for example—are complete- homepage and search engine without track their audience. Encrypted networks that are not
hashtag #Ops when announcing a new ly harmless. Other bots can be pro- permission, often in order to gain clicks easily accessible by outsiders. Users are
campaign. Past ops included a take- grammed to repeatedly guess passwords to websites for ad revenue or to inflate Cracking anonymized. Illegal activities are often
down of the Church of Scientology and so that a hacker can break into a a page’s ranking. A basic term that describes breaking carried out on the dark web, such as
the Westboro Baptist Church. website. into a security system. Anyone “crack- selling company data.
ing” a system is doing so maliciously.


Data leakage Doxing Exploit InfoSec Man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks
The unauthorized access of information When hackers root out and publish The general term for leveraging a vul- An abbreviation for “information secu- This occurs when a hacker imperson-
resulting in leaks, theft, or loss. personally identifying information nerability in a piece of code, software, rity,” InoSec can refer to the companies ates a trusted connection in order to
about someone online. hardware, or a computer network. and professionals who work within steal data or information or to alter
Denial-of-service attack (DoS) cybersecurity. communications between two or more
This is when a hacker sends so many Dump Firewall people. These are especially common in
requests to a website or network that The term for a trove of data released by A system of software and hardware Jailbreak businesses.
the traffic temporarily overwhelms the hackers. that’s designed to prevent unautho- A way of removing the restrictive
servers, and the site or network goes rized access to a computer or computer manufacturer’s code from a device so Metadata
down. Dumpster diving network. that you can reprogram it to function as This is the data that explains what’s
Hackers search through garbage look- you desire. in another set of data, such as a JPEG
Digital certificate ing for information that will help with Hacker photo, email, or webpage.
These authenticate and approve the an exploit. Organizations and individu- This term means different things to Keys
identity of a person, organization, or als who don’t consistently use a shred- different people. People who tinker The code that, just like a physical key, is Password managers
service. der are particularly vulnerable to this with code, to purposely manipulate it, used to lock or unlock a system, en- These third-party tools let you remem-
method. are hackers. Some are good, and some crypted message, or software. ber one master password to unlock a
Distributed denial-of-service are bad. In popular culture, “hacker” database of all your other passwords.
attack (DDoS) Encryption has taken on an reductive, distinctly Malware You can still use a completely different
This is a DoS using a battalion of ma- Using special code or software to scram- negative connotation. Any software program that’s designed password for every site and service
chines. ble data so that it cannot be read by a to manipulate a system, by stealing in- you use. While password managers
third party, even if it is intercepted. Hacktivist formation, augmenting code, or install- are a good idea in theory, many are
DNS hijacking Someone who hacks for social or politi- ing a rogue program. Rootkits, keylog- cloud-based. If a hacker gains access to
This attack changes a computer’s set- End-to-end encryption cal reasons. gers, spyware, and everyday viruses are your password manager, you’re in big
tings to ignore a domain name system When an encrypted message is scram- examples of malware. trouble. So, if you do use one, make sure
(DNS) or to use a DNS that’s controlled bled on both ends, as it is sent and again Honeypot to use a complicated password at least
by malicious agents. as it is received. A system or network designed to look 36 characters long with lots of special
like a high-value target but instead characters, numbers, and capital letters.
built to attract hackers, watch their
work, and learn from their techniques.


Patch Plaintext Rootkit Spoofing Vulnerability
An after-market fix to address techno- This is text without any formatting. Rootkits are malware designed for root In general, any time data is changed A weakness in computer software that
logical vulnerabilities. In the context of cybersecurity, it also access. Often undetected, rootkits start to mimic a trusted source, it’s being hackers can exploit for their own gain.
refers to text that isn’t encrypted. running when you start your comput- spoofed. Changing the “from” section
Penetration testing er, and they stay running until you turn or header of an email to make it look White hat
The practice of trying to break into Ransomware your machine off. as though it was sent by someone else Not all hackers are bad. White hat
your own computer or network, in or- This is malware that allows a hacker to is an example of spoofing. Hackers hackers work on highlighting vulner-
der to test the strength of your security. break into your computer or network Screen Scraper spoof emails by impersonating people abilities and bugs in order to fix them
and then take away your access until A device or virus that captures private you know and then launch phishing and protect users.
PGP (Pretty Good Privacy) you pay a specified fee or perform a or personal data by logging information attacks.
You may have seen PGP numbers certain action. that is sent to a visual display. Worm
showing up in Twitter and Facebook Verification Worms are a certain kind of invasive
bios. PGP is a basic method of encrypt- RAT (Remote Access Tool) Social Engineering Ensuring that data, and its originators, malware that spreads like a virus.
ing email (and other data). In order RATs are Remote Access Tool. If you’ve An attack that manipulates users into are authentic.
to receive and read the message, your used a remote login service to access performing specific actions or divulg- Zero-day exploits
intended recipient must use a private your office computer while away from ing personal or account information. Virtual private networks (VPNs) In the hacking community, zero-days
key to decode it. work, you’ve used a RAT. But RATs These threats are common in compa- VPNs use encryption to create a pri- (also written as “0day”) are prized tools
can be malicious, too; just imagine a nies and often result in data breaches. vate channel for accessing the internet. because they are undisclosed vulnera-
Phishing hacker using a RAT to take over your They are necessary when connecting bilities that can be exploited. Once the
We’ve all seen a phishing attack at least workstation. Spearphishing to public networks, including those at flaw is revealed, programmers have
once. They usually come in the form of A more targeted form of phishing to airports, hotels, and coffee shops. zero days to do anything about it.
an email from a trusted contact. Once Root smaller groups, typically within social
you open the message or attachment, The root is the central nervous system networks or work environments. Virus Zombie
your computer, your data, and the of a computer or network. It can install Malware intended to steal, delete, or A computer, connected device, or net-
network you’re on become vulnerable new applications, create files, and delete ransom your files. Mimicking the flu, work that’s been infected by malware
to attack. user accounts, among other things. this type of malware spreads, quite and is now being used by the hacker,
Anyone with root access has ubiquitous literally, like a virus. probably without the primary user’s
and unfettered access. knowledge.

Application
Privacy and security are not issues Those who work in innovation have a Privacy and security should be top of Cyber espionage is a growing threat,
specific to the CIO, CTO, CISO, or IT unique set of skills that could aid in a mind among R&D teams, but within and successful companies are clear
departments. How companies collect, company’s approach to privacy and many companies, R&D units struggle targets: Criminals want to steal valu-
use, and store data; the technology security. One of the biggest challenges to keep pace with the changing tech- able IP from the world’s best business-
acquisitions business units make; the faced by companies is that they do nology landscape. This results in pet es. Chief risk management officers
vendors and partners selected; and not think creatively about adversaries projects taking up too much time, even and those who work in risk-related
investments made in security all affect or next-order outcomes. For example, when they don’t lead to desired re- positions can play a critical role in pro-
the future of a company. Responsi- before a company launches a new sults—or moving too quickly on projects tecting a company’s most important
bilities should be shared across the product, it would be useful to host a without considering their security or assets by championing data auditing,
organization, as the evolving nature of workshop to deeply investigate all of privacy implications. The cadence of promoting proper data governance
security and privacy directly impact the possible ways the product could R&D teams must be adjusted to ac- and management, and advocating for
corporate strategic initiatives in a vari- unintentionally cause harm—or bring commodate emerging privacy and a risk-driven approach in departments
ety of areas, like digital transformation, harm to the business. security considerations. that rely on data.
growing operating income, internation-
al expansion, and more. Nearly every
aspect of a chief strategy officer’s work
intersects with privacy and security.


begin by asking these questions about security and privacy:
1 2 3
Is our company’s board What parts of our Will our current
?
of directors briefed business make us a approach to data
regularly by our CISO? target for attacks? collection, storage,
encryption (and, if
Is our board fully When was the last time
applicable, reselling)
engaged in issues we audited the systems
cause future problems?
related to privacy and that keep those parts of
cybersecurity? our business safe? What assumptions must
How will we make

needed changes?

Selected Sources
https://world-at-home.tanium.com/ https://www.commerce.senate.
gov/2018/9/examining-safe-
https://msrc-blog.microsoft. guards-for-consumer-data-privacy
com/2020/12/13/customer-guid-
ance-on-recent-nation-state-cyber-at- https://news.bloomberglaw.com/pri-
tacks/ vacy-and-data-security/tech-giants-
tell-congress-they-back-privacy-lawin-
https://www.csis.org/programs/stra- theory-1-1/
tegic-technologies-program/signifi-
cant-cyber-incidents
https://googleprojectzero.blogspot.
com/
https://www.pewresearch.
org/internet/2019/11/15/ameri-
cans-and-privacy-concerned-con-
fused-and-feeling-lack-of-con-
trol-over-their-personal-information/
https://www.pewresearch.
org/internet/2019/11/15/ameri-
cans-and-privacy-concerned-con-
fused-and-feeling-lack-of-con-
trol-over-their-personal-information/
https://public.tableau.com/en-us/gal-
lery/staying-cyber-secure-while-work-
ing-home

Volume 9 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Blockchain
Report Fintech
Strategic trends that will influence business, Crypto
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Blockchain, Fintech and Crypto
337 Summary
339 Central Bank-Backed
Digital Currencies
340 Stablecoins
341 Social Payments
342 Scenario: A New Bretton Woods
343 Content Provenance and
Permanent Archiving
344 Automated Credit Risk Modeling
345 Decentralized Exchanges
and Automated Market Makers
346 Web 3.0
347 Smart Royalties
348 Scenario: Charitable e-Skimming
349 Distributed Computing
for a Cause
350 Fractional Ownership
351 Self-Funding Digital Infrastructure
352 Non-Fungible Tokens
and Digital Collectibles
353 Scenario: Human IPOs
354 Application
355 Key Questions
356 Sources
Blockchain
+ Large crypto-currency holdings + Smart contracts will remove
will catalyze innovation in 2021, intermediaries, such as manage-
as bitcoin is used to collateralize ment and distribution compa-
new or experimental decentral- nies, in creative fields.
ized financial instruments.
+ New platforms monetize idle
Fintech &
+ Decentralized financial tech- computer resources. To earn ex-
nologies will be adopted by the tra money, consumers will grant
enterprise. access to their mobile phones,
tablets, and connected home
+ Four dozen countries are piloting appliances when they’re not
digital fiat sovereign currencies. used.
Crypto
+ Environmental, social, gover- + Investors are using fractional
nance (ESG) goals are driving ownership to divide the costs and
blockchain adoption, as investors risks of assets. It’s a time-share
seek proof of improvements in model, based on blockchain, for
supply chains. fine art and collectibles.
Summary
+ Demand for modern, impartial, + It’s CryptoKitties, part two. As
and secure systems to settle demand for non-fungible tokens
trades and transactions will spikes, digital collectibles will
increase as the global financial gain interoperability this year.
system digitizes.


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Blockchain, Fintech and Crypto Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Central Bank-Backed Digital Currencies

In 2018, the Marshall Islands created a More central banks may soon em- • Bank of China
Central banks are is- new digital currency called the Sovereign brace CBDCs, paving the way for more • Bank of International Settlements
suing and regulating (SOV), which is now legal tender in the streamlined flows of global currencies
• Worldwide central banks
blockchain-backed to- Micronesian nation. Singapore’s central and foreign exchange markets. In fact, as
bank created a digital currency backed many as 70% of central banks are actively • World Economic Forum
kens called digital state by the Singapore dollar that runs on the exploring this technology to develop their
currencies—or central Ethereum blockchain. Canada’s central own decentralized currencies, according
bank digital currencies bank has been researching the issuing of a to professional services firm PwC. When
digital currency. China is the undisputed it comes to natural disasters, pandemics,
or CBDCs—which could
leader in CBDCs, successfully executing and humanitarian aid, CBDCs could
modernize some of the a large-scale pilot of more than 4 million deliver emergency relief funds faster and
most antiquated areas digital yuan transactions from April to enable easier tracking and monitoring
of global finance. De- December 2020. An international co- of digital currencies. Yet for that reason,
alition of central banks, including the critics say that CBDCs also present priva-
spite the popularity of Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank cy and surveillance concerns. The pop-
digital payment rails (the of Japan, European Central Bank, and ularity of CBDCs prompted the World
infrastructure that allows U.S. Federal Reserve, issued a report in Economic Forum to publish a policymak-
October 2020 outlining key principles for er toolkit to ensure the improvement of
payment transfers from CBDCs. payment systems’ safety, resilience, and
one party to another), efficiency; increased financial inclusion;
the global monetary sys- and better data transmission and report-
China is a leader in the field of central bank ing to central banks.
digital currencies. tem is still largely based
on state-backed, physi-
cal fiat currencies.
Stablecoins
Visa and peer-to-peer payment com- Stablecoins—specifically those pegged • Tether

Stablecoins work to pany Circle Internet Financial created a to the U.S. dollar—open up a univer- • Circle
minimize the volatility credit card that uses USDC, a stablecoin sal means of exchange across the globe
pegged to the dollar. The underlying peg without traditional financial hurdles. • Coinbase
of the price of a cryp- • Gemini
of another stablecoin, Facebook’s Diem People can now store savings in a stable
to-currency, by “peg- (formerly Libra), has yet to be announced. asset rather than a local currency suffer- • Binance
ging” them to a specific The New York attorney general’s office ing from inflation, and stablecoins offer
and the U.S. Justice Department investi- faster, more affordable remittances. This
exchange rate for a gated whether Tether, the most widely also raises regulatory concerns for cir-
currency, crypto-cur- used stablecoin, was used in cover-ups cumstances in which stablecoins are used
rency, fiat money, or an and market manipulations. (Tether to evade currency controls and sanctions.
admitted to no wrongdoing and settled
exchange-traded com- for $18.5 million in February.) Tether’s
modity. value proposition is that it is “tethered” to
the value of a dollar, and for every Tether
in circulation, Tether Ltd., its parent
company, has a dollar in its cash reserves.
The controversy has not hampered
investor interest or global adoption. The
stablecoin regulatory landscape is evolv-
ing. In late 2020, U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib
Tether’s value proposition is that it is “tethered” to (D-Mich.) introduced the STABLE Act
the value of a dollar.
to require companies issuing stablecoins
obtain a banking license.

Social Payments
In 2009, Venmo became the first social As physical cash declines and banks and • Affirm
Tech companies are payment app, requiring users to caption retailers depend on big tech to facilitate • Ant Group
leveraging APIs and their transactions and offering the option transactions, competition is intense.
to share transactions publicly. Owned Tech companies enjoy revenue streams • Baidu
digital infrastructure to • Green Dot
by PayPal, it now has 300 million users, and rich personal data about people’s
provide seamless, in- and social payments is a serious financial spending habits for use in predictive
terconnected financial service sector. China’s Alipay gives its marketing. That data may soon be worth
870 million users access to wealth man- more than the currency itself. Consumers
services. Financial in- agement services, loan applications, and pay twice: first with money, then their
stitutions and payment credit scores—and issued half a billion personal data. WeChat and Alipay drive
providers are integrating dollars in Chinese loans in 2020. Face- China’s advanced fintech economy with
book’s new WhatsApp Pay has 400 mil- a network of merchants that accepts chat
with tech platforms and lion users in India. Apple and Goldman payments, blurring the lines between
e-commerce to acquire Sachs created a credit card for iPhones payments to friends and stores. As U.S.
and Apple Watches. Uber Money will and European Union regulators debate
more customers and build a bank for its drivers. Amazon is whether to keep big tech out of finance,
fend off competition. exploring a checking account service to expect more stringent regulation in the
go with its existing branded credit card. wake of data breaches, privacy concerns,
This year, Google will launch GooglePlex, rampant fraud, and antitrust claims. Are
a banking app integrated with Google platforms becoming banks? Or are banks
Pay—creating a single app to pay busi- plugging into platforms? Either way, rad-
These apps blur the lines between sending money nesses and peers, manage savings, and ical digital transformation is happening
to a friend versus to a store.
conceivably even apply for loans. across the financial services industry.

A New Bretton Woods

In 1944, 44 allied nations met in Bretton Woods, New
Hampshire, to map out international monetary regula-
tions and financial policies post-World War II. In ad-
dition to establishing the International Monetary Fund,
they also created a fixed foreign exchange market and set
the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. While fixed
foreign exchanges are a thing of the past, the hegemony
of the U.S. dollar remained intact, allowing the United
States to borrow at lower interest rates and giving Amer-
icans the ability to import goods with higher purchasing
power. Given what we know about digital currencies, in-
flation rates, and global trade, a new global summit is held
to reimagine international monetary policies or displace
the U.S. dollar. This “sequel” to Bretton Woods builds
on John Maynard Keynes’ idea, proposed at the original
summit in 1944, for a “bancor,” a supranational currency
for global trade. Thanks to existing modern technology
that allows for such a currency to be pegged to a basket of
assets, and ensures that no single country has a dominant
financial advantage on the world stage, Keynes’ dream of
a bancor is finally made reality.

Content Provenance and Permanent Archiving

Blockchain can permanently archive Governments and large corporations • Associated Press
Blockchains can be content that would otherwise be subject routinely delete, alter, or censor online • Internet Archive
used as a universal in- to censorship or suppression. After cen- information, but blockchain lets us create
sorship by social media sites like WeChat, a shared permanent ledger from which • New York Times
dex of content author- • InterPlanetary File System
Chinese activist Yue Xin at Peking nothing can be deleted. By adding original
ship and edits. This is a University used the Ethereum blockchain content or an index to the blockchain,
powerful tool to authen- in 2018 to publish a letter that detailed a journalists and media companies can
pattern of abuse and intimidation from make their content permanent, verifiable,
ticate content and to school administrators. People in China and traceable. Expect more blockchain
combat censorship and and Turkey also use the InterPlanetary experimentation for verifying original
The Associated Press posted verified election
misinformation. File System, or IPFS—a peer-to-peer file online content and its origins, and for
results from the 2020 U.S. presidential race on
the Ethereum blockchain.
sharing service—to publish and preserve more secure archiving. This is key: The
otherwise censored content, such as news decline of internet freedoms globally over
articles and Wikipedia pages. In 2020, the the past decade means more internet
Associated Press used Ethereum block- censorship, more media manipulation,
chain to post verified results from the and less access to information. In an in-
U.S. presidential race, and The New York creasingly digital world, small newsrooms
Times may use the technology to combat and large media companies struggle to
misinformation. The News Provenance maintain permanent archives.
Project traces the origins of journalistic
content and detects doctored or manipu-
lated images and videos.

Automated Credit Risk Modeling

Spin Analytics is a fast-growing startup In many cases, using AI in credit mod- • BBVA
Banks and insurance that uses predictive analytics, artificial eling has increased bias against mar- • Crédit Agricole
companies are using intelligence, and machine learning tech- ginalized groups. However, automated
niques to forecast credit behavior, future processes based on behavior, and not • Genpact
artificial intelligence • Spin Analytics
costs, and credit losses of both customers demographics, could result in more just
to automate credit risk and entire credit portfolios. It’s just one and equitable outcomes. • RapidRatings
modeling. example of the AI-powered automat-
• Root Auto Insurance
ed credit risk modeling services being
studied and tested at commercial banks,
including BBVA and Crédit Agricole.
Similarly, Root Auto Insurance issues
auto quotes by analyzing customers’ driv-
ing based on the accelerometer in their
mobile phones.
Root Auto Insurance uses the accelerometer in

mobile phones to assess customers’ driving and
issue an insurance quote accordingly.

Decentralized Exchanges and Automated Market Makers

Centralized markets like the New York Both of these trends—decentralized ex- • Uniswap
Crypto-currency de- Stock Exchange or Nasdaq maintain changes and automated market makers— • Curve
velopers have created fair, consistent, and transparent pro- are part of a larger wave of decentralized
cesses for publishing prices and orders, finance or DeFi. Although it is unlikely • Compound
software to decentral- • 0x
where market makers provide liquidity to disrupt traditional markets in the short
ize the exchange pro- with both buy and sell positions. In term, there will be a greater demand for • Kyber
cess, allowing individu- crypto-currencies and fully electronic modern, impartial, secure systems to
• dYdX
markets, algorithms typically price assets, settle trades and transactions as more
als to trade directly with rather than traditional market books. aspects of the global financial system are
one another, without Ethereum-based decentralized exchange digitized. Expect bugs, bubbles, and user
relying on a centralized Uniswap surpassed $50 billion in lifetime experience hurdles ahead, because it’s the
volume, despite concerns about liquidity early days of decentralized exchanges and
third party to determine and volume from darknet markets. Just automated market makers. Still, the un-
prices and settle the months after its 2020 start, Curve.fi hit derlying innovation in finance is undeni-
Uniswap, with more than $1 billion in liquidity, is more than $47 billion in volume and able, and it will have lasting impact.
one of the most recognizable decentralized ex- trades. Automated mar- became a decentralized finance leader.
changes.
ket maker algorithms Total trading volume for these exchanged
make these decentral- ballooned to $6 billion as of the first half
of last year, up from $2.5 billion in 2018
ized exchanges work. and 2019.

Web 3.0
Collaboration and decentralized creation The world wide web celebrated its 30th • Blockstack
Web 3.0 allows for is accelerated in Web 3.0—often referred anniversary in 2019. Decentralization and • Cosmos
web browsers and to as the semantic web. Advanced tech- collaboration are driving its next itera-
niques in data mining, natural language tion. Smart cities, Internet of Things, and • Lightning Labs
mobile applications to • RSK
processing, and text analytics will make AI-enabled tools are simply not possible
perform more complex gathering and understanding unstruc- without Web 3.0 software and infrastruc- • The International Political
processes and enable tured data much easier. Plus, artificial ture. Just as cloud computing revolution- Economy Society
intelligence and machine learning allows ized how businesses manage and store
entirely new kinds of machines to collaborate directly with information, blockchain and distributed
The InterPlanetary File System is a peer-to-peer
hypermedia protocol that facilitates decentral- transactions. In this one another and, eventually, teach one computing will enable a new wave of
ized file sharing and cloud computing.
new iteration of the another. In media, Otoy is cutting the innovation for information technology
costs of 3D visual effects production with and databases.
internet, individual a decentralized, distributed network of
users would potentially partners that can chip in spare process-
ing power with a digital token known as
have more autonomy RNDR. The InterPlanetary File System, a
and control of their peer-to-peer hypermedia protocol, facil-
privacy and data. itates decentralized file sharing and cloud
computing. Companies like Blockstack
and Cosmos are building networking
products that will unlock a new genera-
tion of applications and services.

Smart Royalties
KEY INSIGHT DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
EXAMPLES
Digital asset ownership is evolving in fa- • Associated Press
Blockchain networks A smart contract, for instance, could
automatically pay an artist when her song vor of content creators holding the rights • Ethereum
like Ethereum offer new is streamed or simply track the number to their content. Europe’s GDPR law
gives ownership rights to data that people • Mycelia
ways to track own- of times people share online content,
• Open Music Initiative
preserving it in a shared public database. create, no matter the platform. Expect
ership, licensing, and Blockchain is at the core of the Open more platforms to embrace this owner- • Berklee School of Music
royalties through smart Music Initiative (OMI)—made up of IBM, ship model and compensate creators—
musicians, photographers, videographers,
contracts, or self-exe- Netflix, Pandora, and Spotify—which is
writers—for driving engagement. Today,
developing a standardized open-source
cuting agreements in protocol and APIs for the music industry. Instagram doesn’t pay content creators;
which the terms are di- OMI launched a pilot with Massachusetts instead, brands pay to gain access to their
Institute of Technology that lets Berklee followers. The Impact Musicians may be
rectly written into lines the first to publish content on platforms
College of Music students license their
of code. Blockchains work to other universities. Media orga- with smart contracts without manage-
ment and distribution companies. It may
form the foundational nizations may use smart contracts, digital
succeed, due to enduring music demand
intellectual property rights structures,
infrastructure layer for and micropayments—potentially revis- and more artist revenue. News platforms
new, low-friction ways iting the 1980s CompuServe economic may follow suit with video and photo
model in which readers paid per view libraries—but journalists tend to have
to automate royalty more elastic followings than other artists.
for high-quality journalism articles and
payments for digital images. It failed upon the arrival of free Regardless, creative industries face digital
Blockchain networks like Ethereum offer new ownership and licensing challenges.
ways to track ownership. intellectual property. high-quality journalism online.

Charitable e-Skimming

Facing pushback from anti-consumerism groups, the
biggest web retailers partner with not-for-profits to
make Black Friday and Singles’ Day the biggest charita-
ble events of the year. By adding the equivalent of a few
pennies to every transaction, and directly routing those
pennies in support of altruistic causes, these sites are able
to add a feel-good aspect to occasions that are otherwise
capitalist bonanzas. The charitable aspect incentivizes
purchasing, increasing overall sales, and the cumulative
funds raised amount to significant contributions to the
partnering not-for-profit organizations—a win-win situa-
tion. Shoppers can choose from a list of causes to support
for the day, and every purchase they make adds to their
total donation—at the end of the event, customers are au-
tomatically emailed forms documenting their donations,
which can be submitted for tax deductions. Opting to up
one’s donation unlocks exclusive deals, creating a flywheel
that benefits all parties.

Distributed Computing for a Cause

Folding@Home lets consumers donate Distributed computing systems will drive • Amazon Web Services
Large computer prob- idle processing power to fuel disease down prices for developers and those • Einstein@Home
lems can be broken research via their computers, PlayStation with greater processing power needs,
3s, and some Sony smartphones. In 2020, and they will provide the average device • Folding@home
down into smaller por- • Golem network
Folding@Home became one of the fastest owner with a new source of income and
tions and solved us- computing systems due to increased a novel way to support purpose-driven • The Great Internet Mersenne
ing processing power interest during the COVID-19 pandem- initiatives. Expect to see more platforms Prime Search
ic. Since its launch two decades ago, the that monetize idle computer resources,
The Golem network monetizes your downtime.
of multiple standard project has led to 225 scientific research allowing consumers to earn income from • TheSkyNet
computers, rather than papers. Another project, the Golem net- underutilized devices they already own.
with centralized super- work, uses Ethereum blockchain and lets
people rent out idle computing resources
computers. Distributed like storage, processing power, or band-
computing technology width to render computer-generated
images, conduct DNA analysis, and tackle
lets people donate idle machine learning tasks.
processor time on their
personal laptops, cell-
phones, and other dig-
ital devices to support
causes or solve socially
relevant problems.

Fractional Ownership
Fintech company Fundrise organized the Fractional ownership democratizes • Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Fractional ownership, first crowdfunded real estate development investing. While the sharing economy • Ernst & Young
commonly associated project in the United States. Otis Wealth prioritized access over ownership, people
and Masterworks.io offer fractional still want ways to create and preserve • Fundrise
with time-shares, al- • MachineryLink Sharing
ownership for works of art, while Schwab wealth. In theory, more people participat-
lows unrelated parties and Robinhood now let investors pur- ing in value creation would lead to more • Maketto
to divide costs and risks chase fractional shares of stocks. Typically equitable distributions of wealth in the
• Maecenas
registered with the U.S. Securities and long term. On the other hand, as more
in order to collectively Exchange Commission, fractional own- people participate in speculative markets, • Meridio
own an asset. Now that ership companies undergo considerable we may see an increase in speculative • Masterworks
the concept is being regulatory oversight. bubbles and economic instability.
• Otis Wealth
applied to blockchain • Property Share
and digital platforms, it • Roofstock
can unlock new ways to • Robinhood
purchase and own as-
Maketto in Washington, D.C., is the first crowd- sets, whether they’re in
funded real estate project in the United States.
fine art, stocks, or other
markets.

Self-Funding Digital Infrastructure

Although much of the internet relies on Many crypto-currency and blockchain • Gitcoin
Some corporations now free open-source software, people are projects depend on open-source develop- • Bitcoin
“sponsor” developers so more inclined to use it than maintain it— ment, and the pioneering of new funding
which is difficult and often leads to burn- models could result in more sustainable • Ethereum
that they can dedicate • Zcash
out of key contributors. Gitcoin, which and more robust digital infrastructure.
their time to develop- caters primarily to the Ethereum block-
ment, and new mecha- chain community, created a marketplace
of bounties for open-source developers
nisms are emerging to who want to contribute to projects and
enable sustainable digi- earn income for their work. Since 2017,
tal infrastructure. Gitcoin has facilitated $10.6 million open-
source software projects. Other crypto
projects, such as Zcash, earmark a portion
of each “block reward”—the amount of
new coins that enters circulation as the
crypto is mined—to go toward communi-
ty development.
Gitcoin, a marketplace for open-source bounties,

has funneled $10.6 million to open-source soft-
ware projects.

Non-Fungible Tokens and Digital Collectibles

Ethereum-based collectibles game Cryp- As more aspects of our lives shift online, • NBA
Blockchains enable toKitties started in 2017, allowing people demand for digital status symbols and • Roblox
digital tokens that are to collect, breed, and trade silly looking personal expression will increase. Digital
cartoon cats. Each kitten, a non-fungible collectibles will be portable from one • Nifty Gateway
provably unique and • Rarible
token, came with 12 “cattributes,” such online platform to another, allowing peo-
scarce. As a result, digi- as fur color to “purrstige.” Its popularity ple to create a full picture of their digital • Gucci
tal collectibles are now nearly stalled the Ethereum network— selves no matter where they exist online.
• LVMH
the priciest kitten sold for $100,000. Its Already, digital collectibles include per-
a growing feature of creator, Dapper Labs, launched NBA Top sonal tokens, which let people tokenize • SuperRare
eSports, online gaming, Shot, the Samsung Galaxy store’s first their time, future salary, and even influ-
and social networks. blockchain-backed digital collectibles set. ence over major life decisions. French
Nifty Gateway and Rarible let people buy developer Alex Masmej raised $20,000 in
These unique tokens digital art that’s tracked and verified using a “human IPO,” raising U.S. Securities and
At the height of its popularity,
have a variety of appli- blockchain. Roblox and Fornite allow Exchange Commission red flags.
gaming players to customize their avatars CryptoKitties nearly stalled
cations—from personal with digital accessories and skins. People the entire Ethereum network,
At the height of its popularity, CryptoKitties nearly
expression to com- can collect and trade digital versions of and the most expensive
stalled the entire Ethereum network.
merce to investing. luxury brands, such as LVMH and Gucci.
digital kitten sold for more
than $100,000.

Human IPOs

Are you a good investment? As big tech harvests and
monetizes more and more of our data, companies gain a
clearer picture of their highest-value users. They begin
offering certain users the option to “go public,” allowing
other users to invest in them with either money or en-
gagement. The platforms tweak their algorithms to give a
“listed” user better-than-average exposure and advanced
analytics in exchange for a stake in the value the user
creates. While the wealthy opt out, those users struggling
to make ends meet, as well as those with aspirations to
become influential within the platform, can’t pass up the
opportunity. Generate more value for your tech “bro-
kers,” and they’ll encourage others to invest in you and
raise the price for your data. Behave in ways that don’t
benefit your benefactors, and you’ll watch your value
plummet—worse yet, you might get delisted.

Application
Innovative use cases for blockchain Companies interested in blockchain There is a shortage for R&D funding In the longer term, as smart contracts
abound, but the complexity of the struggle to find meaningful use cases. outside of the largest financial institu- and blockchain peer-to-peer frame-
ecosystem remains a hurdle for most Chief innovation officers can champi- tions. Grants can advance blockchain works gain acceptance, business
companies. Disorganized experimenta- on companywide ideation to identify technology, but government agencies, models must transform. Blockchain will
tion without strategic positioning jeop- value, brainstorm new use cases, test university initiatives, and a handful of reduce operational costs and increase
ardizes positive outcomes and returns desirability and feasibility, create proof big payment companies will provide efficiencies. Human-based trust mod-
on investment. Chief strategy officers of concepts with paper or functional most funding. More work is needed: re- els will transition to algorithmic ones,
can develop strategic approaches to prototypes, and launch new pilots— searching bitcoin’s long-term economic potentially exposing companies to new
blockchain, assessing feasibility, im- with systems to collect data, test, and security, and addressing the protocol risks. Data hygiene and governance,
pact, and opportunities to extract value evaluate applications. Within many or- risks of crypto-currencies and deep algorithm explainability, and block-
in the near term. ganizations, blockchain enthusiasts are code reviews. There is an opportunity chain controls will be paramount in this
hiding in plain sight, ready to contribute to lead: Companies could both fund new environment.
to new initiatives. and become the initial beneficiaries of
blockchain research.

Key Questions We recommend using this report to support your strategic foresight activity in the
coming year. Every executive team should begin by asking these questions about
blockchain, crypto-currencies, and regulation:
1 2 3
How will blockchain Are we adequately What parts of our
?
drive efficiency in our planning for the longer business model make us
business practices and term? vulnerable to disruption
drive new innovation in brought by the evolution
our industry? of blockchain?
strategy to succeed? What can we do now to
mitigate future risk?

Selected Sources
https://www.coindesk.com/visa-con- https://www.coindesk.com/inter- https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~sandholm/
necting-global-payments-net- planetary-file-system-is-uncen- automatedMarketMakersThatEnable-
work-to-circles-usdc-on-ethere- sorable-during-coronavirus-news-fog NewSettings.AMMA-11.pdf
um-blockchain
https://freedomhouse.org/sites/de- https://www.masterworks.io/
https://www.coindesk.com/us-law- fault/files/2019-11/11042019_Report_
makers-introduce-bill-that-would- FH_FOTN_2019_final_Public_Down- https://www.europeanceo.com/home/
require-stablecoin-issuers-to-obtain- load.pdf featured/the-rise-of-fractional-owner-
bank-charters ship-in-luxury-assets/
https://www.coindesk.com/unstoppa-
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/finan- ble-domains-launches-censorship-re- https://nadiaeghbal.com/oss/
cial-services/pdf/the-rise-of-central- sistant-blogging-platform
bank-digital-currencies.pdf https://www.nbatopshot.com/
https://www.brookings.edu/research/
https://www.bis.org/press/p201009. reducing-bias-in-ai-based-finan- https://medium.com/@kermankohli/
htm cial-services/ initial-kerman-offering-d8cb02263f71
https://cointelegraph.com/news/only- https://medium.com/multi-io/auto-
4-of-norway-uses-cash-as-country- mated-market-makers-amm-break-
evaluates-cbdc-norges-bank-exec- down-d3338f027230
says
https://academy.binance.com/en/ar-
https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/ ticles/what-is-an-automated-market-
insights/aerial-view-magazine/china- maker-amm
and-the-dawn-of-digital-currency.html
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/
https://decrypt.co/35343/how-ipfs- post/79768/theres-no-such-thing-as-
can-skirt-chinas-grip-on-hong-kong a-decentralized-exchange

Volume 10 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends 5G
Report Robots
Strategic trends that will influence business, Transportation
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation
360 Summary 385 Robot Rights 419 Autonomous Vehicle Testing

362 5G 386 Robots as Essential Workers Gets Regulated
363 5Geopolitics 387 Expert Insight: The Next Generation 420 Analog Fallbacks
364 Expert Insight: 5G Will Transform of Robots Must Be Adaptable, 421 Scenario: When Humans
Transportation, Entertainment, Customizable and Trainable Attack Cars
Retail and More 390 Logisitics & Supply Chain 422 Urban Planning for Multi-Use Roads
366 6G 390 Capturing IIoT Metadata 423 China’s Open Road
367 Breaking the Millisecond Barrier 391 Automating the Supply Chain 424 New Cityscape Designs
369 Edge Computing 392 Sustainability in Supply 425 Decarbonizing Flight
370 Near-real-time Application Chain and Logistics 426 Supersonic Flights
Environments 393 Rethinking the Cold Chain 427 Scenario: The End of Traffic
370 AI at the Edge 394 Additive Manufacturing 428 Autonomous Ships
370 Edge Management 396 Drones 429 China’s Foreign
370 Big Tech Companies at the Edge 398 Drone Swarms Infrastructure Investment
370 Hyper-local Data Centers 400 Drone Fleets 430 Application
for Edge Computing 401 Cognitive Active Safety Features 431 Key Questions
372 Quantum Computing 402 Autonomous Last Mile Delivery 432 Sources
373 Updating Post-Quantum 403 Air Lanes
Cryptography Standards
404 Flying Taxis
373 Quantum Supremacy
405 Follow-Me Autonomously
373 Global Quantum Computing Race
406 Inspection Drones
373 Quantum Boosts for
407 Autonomous Underwater Vehicles
Classical Computers
409 Transportation
375 Robots
409 Vehicular Biospheres
375 Robots-as-a-Service (RaaS)
410 Scenario: Intra-biosphere
376 Cobots
and intra-pod mobility
377 Autonomous, Programmable
411 Battery-Supported Transportation
Robot Swarms
412 Scenario: Distributed Grid
378 Self-Assembling Robots
413 Car OS
379 Robot Compilers
414 Transportation-as-a-Service
380 Soft Robotics
Business Models
381 Smart Dust
415 Forced Updates
382 Commercial Quadrupedal Robots
416 Scenario: Experiential Interruptions
383 Mars Dogs
417 Exponential Growth in
384 Ethical Manufacturing Autonomous Driving Data
+ 6G will be the sixth generation of + There will be millions of imple- + Construction materials such as
wide-area wireless technology, mentations of robots-as-a-ser- bricks could soon behave like hu-
following the transition to 5G. vice over the next five years, man cells and evolve, replicate,
Planning for this new standard is which could generate billions of and assemble organically with
already underway. dollars of revenue. others.
5G
+ A new standard for latency is in + As 5G comes online and reduc- + China is creating a new mobility
the works and could break the es latency, robots will process ecosystem that includes electric
millisecond barrier. spatial data at fast enough vehicles, apps, communications
speeds to adapt to environmen- systems, artificial intelligence,
+ The global quantum computing tal changes. and data, and it is intending to
Robots &
race is on, and equity deals for ship its products to the West.
quantum computing startups + Robots are now capable of
surged in 2020. “sweating” thanks to a soft, + Saudi Arabia is developing fu-
robotic muscle that can auton- turistic new megacities. They will
omously regulate its internal have advanced technologies and
Transportation
temperature, just like living or- urban ecosystems that rival every
ganisms do. other major city.
+ Robotic dogs specially designed + Efforts are underway to create
Summary
for Mars will travel in packs and fully autonomous, AI-powered
assist each other as they climb, ships, along with a legal frame-
jump, and descend new terrains. work for them to operate safely
and officially in international
+ Some governments will consider waters.
granting the legal status of “elec-
tronic persons” to sophisticated
robots.
5G
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 5G, Robots and Transportation Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
5G
5G advances today’s networks using a Monetizing 5G remains a challenge • National Spectrum Consortium
5G is the fifth genera- more responsive kind of radio technol- for mobile network operators (such as
• 5G Fund for Rural America
tion mobile network and ogy that not only moves data faster but Verizon, Vodafone, and Telefónica),
also requires less power to do so. It will which must gradually make network im- • Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN)
a global wireless stan- provements while continuing to provide
shorten transmission latency from 30 • Spectrum Forward Other Transaction
dard. Since the first 5G milliseconds to just a single millisecond, service for previous 3G and 4G standards. Agreement
This last mile of the telecom ecosystem
mobile networks began allowing essentially instantaneous con-
is the most complex and costly to main- • U.S. Department of Defense’s Research
nectivity between devices on a network.
launching in 2019, this This means big opportunities for tele- tain, and earns revenue mainly through and Engineering Division
new standard has rolled customer plans. South Korea launched

medicine and robotic-assisted surgery,
high-value, premium 5G plans to increase
out slowly around the autonomous vehicles, gaming, and
revenue alongside new products and
streaming. Unlike Wi-Fi, a 5G network
world. Eventually, 5G can be built to prioritize certain data
services to entice adoption. VR cloud
gaming, augmented reality shopping,
will offer higher speeds, transmissions over others. For example,
and live sports streaming are bundled
heavy manufacturing companies and
low or even no latency utilities will be able to automate more of
in new premium plans. South Korea
notwithstanding, most 5G launches still
in data transfer, and their core processes using advanced ro- lack the use cases needed to convert users
the ability for billions of botics systems, which will in turn create and justify the investment in network
a new market for all the components, upgrades. In the U.S., the Federal Com-
5G is the fifth generation of wireless connectivity.
devices to connect with devices, and consulting services necessary munications Commission created two
one another. for operating such a network. Innovation Zones, city-scale test beds in
Salt Lake City and in New York City’s
West Harlem, for advanced wireless
communications and network research,
including 5G networks.
5Geopolitics
The Trump administration tightened New entrants are circumventing politics. • Semiconductor Industry Association
There’s a geopolitical the screws on China when it banned Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten • Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN)
fight underway, pitting Chinese companies ZTE and Huawei launched a virtual network running on
from supplying gear to American net- cloud native and open radio access net- • Rakuten Mobile
the U.S. against China
work operators in the U.S. Chipmaker work (O-RAN) technology. The network • Starlink
in a race to deploy the Qualcomm, meanwhile, is one of a scant architecture costs far less to build and
telecom equipment few U.S. companies making components operate, and doesn’t rely as much on
necessary for a widescale 5G rollout. equipment from traditional suppliers.
and systems required to Trump revoked licenses to Huawei sup- Elon Musk’s Starlink is developing a
build 5G networks. pliers, which included Intel, and there- low-latency broadband internet system
by weakened the Chinese tech giant’s with speeds of 300Mbps—fast enough
position in the global market. American to manage Wi-Fi calling and just about
security experts are urging the Biden ad- anything else consumers might stream,
ministration to build a 5G network with play, operate, or build.
and for geopolitical allies and to exclude
Chinese equipment. As of this writing,
Huawei is a major supplier of network compo-
only Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung are
nents.
allowed to build 5G networks in the U.S.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping
has made it clear that he intends to wean
China and its allies off of Western-made
technology entirely.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
5G Will Transform pivoted the needs of our customers

and forced transformation across
Transportation, all industries.
Entertainment, What can we accomplish in the

next five, 10 or 25 years? Innovation
Retail and More is happening at the speed of 5G,
and the next wave of bold predic-
tions is well on its way.
Igal Elbaz
5G will ultimately be a paradigm
SVP of Wireless and Access shift from prior networks. The in-
Technology, AT&T creased speeds, lower latency and
higher reliability will create the
ideal foundation for transforma-
tional use cases. The ecosystem
A little more than 25 years ago,
is developing capabilities never
AT&T debuted a bold advertising
before imagined with LTE. There’s
campaign predicting a future
no better time than now to take a
world enabled by emerging tech-
visionary approach to the possi-
nologies. At the time, the ads mim-
bilities. We’re collaborating with
icked science fiction—video calls
customers and allies to identify
from a payphone, sending a fax on
how technology can create a safer,
the beach and talking to a friend
more connected world.
on a watch. While the experiences
look different than our predeces- Take the healthcare industry, for
sors imagined, they are now reali- example. The combination of 5G,
ties and even necessities, as 2020

5G is also paving the way for the and the clothes could be on a cus- ing to deliver a live 3-D augmented
future of transportation. At the tomer’s doorstep in 48 hours. This reality interactive concert for a
AT&T 5G Innovation Studio in Pla- will become a widespread reality select group of fans. Entertainment
There’s no better time no, Texas, we’re working with col- that many retailers are expected to will become more immersive with
than now to take a laborators to showcase how 5G embrace. the advancement of AI and edge
and edge computing can enable computing, and we’ll eventually
visionary approach to autonomous drones. And, as the
Another exciting area of opportu-
blur the divide between the physi-
the possibilities. edge expands, self-driving cars
nity is the entertainment industry.
cal and digital world.
5G is already re-imagining how we
will eventually become ubiquitous,
create and consume media in this 5G is triggering the next wave of
creating safer roadways. Flash
edge computing, artificial intelli- new world. Holographic commu- business transformation and indus-
forward even further, and you
gence (AI), and Internet of Things nication proved useful during last trial revolution, and these use cases
could be looking toward the sky for
unlocks a new realm of possibilities year’s NBA playoffs when reporters are only a glimpse of what’s on the
a flying taxi.
for medical professionals. Last were able to perform holographic horizon.
year, 2020, triggered the rise of Today’s technology will also trans- interviews with players from hun-
telehealth, and this momentum will **
form the retail world, because dreds of miles away, a necessity
only continue. Faster speeds, lower 2020 shifted how we shop. There given restrictions around in-person Igal Elbaz is senior vice president
latency, and massive connectivity could be “magic mirrors,” or con- interviews. of Wireless and Access Technol-
will enable more real-time remote nected displays, that use 4K sen-
Now, imagine holographic commu- ogy. He is responsible for wireless
consultations, crucial data trans- sors and digital displays to repli-
nication for the masses. In the not- and wireline access network ar-
fers, and connected ambulances. cate the experience of standing in
so-distant future, we could enjoy chitecture, design and technology
As 5G matures, we’ll see the ad- front of a mirror. Instead of having
vancement from today’s telemed- live, immersive concerts from the roadmap, including radio access
to physically try on clothes, con-
icine and remote consultations comfort of our couch. And, we’ve network, 5G and LTE mobility, voice
sumers could swipe left and right
during surgery to robotic-assisted taken the initial steps toward this core network functions, network AI
to try on outfits and accessories.
surgeries and development of reality. AT&T recently used 5G, ma- and driving industry standards.
Then, using a connected tablet, an
life-saving wearables. chine learning, and edge comput-
employee could place the order,

6G
Project Hexa-X, the European Commis- 6G should support data rates of 1 terabyte • Hexa-X
6G will be the sixth gen- sion’s early 6G research initiative, kicked per second, making latency and capacity • Nokia
eration of wide-area off in January 2021 in preparation for balancing a thing of the past. This new
the global standard that comes after 5G. standard will support technologies that • Next G Alliance
wireless technology,
The current global transition from 4G demand real-time awareness—which • University of Oulu
following the transition to 5G is a tricky one: There are lots of are likely to include human-machine • University of Padova
to 5G. Planning for this variables over which no one entity has interfaces that intuitively understand
• Beijing University of Posts
control. Core components—licensed and our intentions. Combined with artificial
new standard is already unlicensed spectrum bands, shared spec- intelligence, the new infrastructure of 6G and Telecommunications
happening. trum, antennas, and network architec- will make networks capable of making • NTT DoCoMo
Hexa-X is developing standards for 6G. tures—aren’t necessarily uniform. Experts decisions autonomously for things like
• Samsung
believe that what they learn building 5G data storage, processing, and sharing.
networks will make the transition to 6G • Ericsson
easier. Researchers at the University of • Huawei
California, Santa Barbara, are already
• ZTE
working on component upgrades: They
built a device that could push 6G’s tera-
hertz frequency signals out of antennas
using what’s known as an N-polar gallium
nitride high-electron-mobility transistor
(HEMT). Nokia is leading the 6G joint
research initiative, and Nokia Bell Labs
is already researching the fundamental
technologies that will comprise 6G.

Breaking the Millisecond Barrier

Latency causes problems in gaming, A new 1 millisecond standard is being • NYU Wireless
The amount of laten- videoconferencing, and VR. A typical 4G developed at New York University’s NYU
• Internet Engineering Task Force’s L4S
cy in mobile networks network incurs 50 milliseconds of lag, Wireless research center. It will require a
and with more devices and people con- new approach to encoding, transmitting, • U.S. Department of Defense
differs, based on how and routing data—but it also promises a
necting to networks, systems can quickly
far a signal must travel, become glitchy. As people worked and wild new frontier in communications. If
signals transmit fast enough that humans
the number of routers learned from home during the pandemic,
can’t perceive any lag at all, teleoperated
signals weakened, causing interruptions
it passes through, and or crashes. The coming swarm of sig- surgical robots could go into widescale
a variety of other fac- use. Haptic devices that map sight and
nal-hungry consumer devices will put
sound could convince us that a digital
tors. A new standard for added strain on networks, unless current
environment is real, not virtual.
latency barriers can be broken. Reducing
latency is in the works latency from 4G’s 50 milliseconds to 5G’s
that could result in just 1 10 milliseconds and below will be crucial
to support applications such as autono-
millisecond of lag. mous vehicles and multiplayer games.
A new 1 millisecond standard is being developed.

Edge
Edge Computing
Edge computing differs from the current In the near future, more of the compu- • Open Neural Network Exchange
Edge computing norm, as much of today’s computing tational work could be done locally—for • AWS Snowcone
performs takes place in the cloud, with distributed example, a car’s computer vision system
data centers handling the processing would process and recognize images • AWS IoT Greengrass
computations near or
work. The challenge for existing cloud- immediately rather than sending that • Nvidia’s EGX AI
at the source of data. based computing environments is the information to the cloud for verification. • IBM’s Edge Ecosystem
potential for delay, which is also known Edge computing requires custom chips
as latency. and hardware, and will work alongside
the cloud rather than replace its func-
Snowcone is used to run edge computing work- tionality. Consumer devices that perform
loads, or to collect, process, and transfer data to
Amazon Web Services.
biometric recognition and authentica-
tion—from smartphones to smart toi-
lets—will rely more on the edge to shore
up privacy and security.

Edge Computing Trends
Near-real-time Application EGX AI platform for edge computing Big Tech Companies at the Edge Hyper-local Data Centers for
Environments features an extensive range of software Edge Computing
AWS invested $29 billion in its edge
accelerated by GPUs (graphics process-
Within the next decade, there could be as computing project Snowcone. Part of the The new streaming services—such as Ap-
ing units). This includes Helm Charts
many as 50 billion devices online gener- AWS Snow Family of edge computing, ple TV+, Peacock, Disney+, HBO Max—
(collections of files) for deployment on
ating enormous amounts of data. Edge edge storage, and data transfer devic- are entering a crowded field dominated
Kubernetes, or portable, open-source
computing is closely tied to the Internet es, Snowcone is designed to fit inside by Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, and YouTube.
systems for managing “containerized”
of Things and 5G connectivity. As virtual a messenger bag. The edge computing But there’s a problem looming: com-
work and services. It also gives users
reality and extended reality become pop- device collects and processes data locally. pression and bandwidth. As a result, we
access to third-party, domain-specific,
ular, more processes will be pushed onto For example, a Snowcone device could will need lots of hyper-local data centers
pretrained models and Kubernetes-ready
headsets. For example, AWS IoT Green- sit inside a manufacturing center, collect positioned closer to consumers. AWS is
Helm Charts that make it easy to deploy
grass, the platform for extending Amazon and analyze data from a production line, now building “local zones” close to major
software or build customized solutions.
Web Services to edge devices, was created and gain insights from AI systems built cities, with the goal of managing laten-
to more easily deploy applications. into the AWS ecosystem. Microsoft is cy-sensitive workloads.
Edge computing is accelerating and will impact Edge Management integrating edge capabilities with Azure,
data centres and cloud expansion in 2021.
AI at the Edge Because data and applications now live in while IBM’s Edge Ecosystem is an open
many places-individual devices, the cloud, standards–based cloud native solution
With the proliferation of smart cameras
local storage—a traditional, one-size-fits- that can be deployed and autonomously
and speakers, developers are building
all approach to monitoring won’t work. managed at the edge at massive scale.
edge systems that can recognize natu-
ral language, people, pets, and objects. Instead, new processes will be required
Open standards, such as the Open Neural to help manage the overall digital expe-
Network Exchange (ONNX) are making rience, from security risks to latency and
on-device machine learning easier, while bandwidth.
TensorFlow Lite and TinyML encourage
artificial intelligence at the edge. Nvidia’s

Quantum
Quantum Computing
In short, quantum computers can solve Quantum computers are becoming more • U.K. National Quantum Technologies
Quantum computing problems that are computationally too powerful and available. Equity deals Programme
uses the properties of difficult for a classical computer, which for quantum startups surged in 2020, • European Union’s Quantum Flagship
can only process information in 1s or nearly doubling from the previous year.
quantum physics to • U.S. National Quantum Initiative Act
0s. In the quantum universe, those 1 and Most activity is aimed at transforming
store data and perform 0 bytes can exist in two states (qubits) health care, logistics, and finance. But a • National Institute of Standards and
computations using at once, allowing computations to be persistent fear is driving much of today’s Technology
performed in parallel. So, if you build research: Quantum computers could
specialized machines. two qubits, they can hold four values at break today’s encryption protocols at a
• Google AI Quantum
the same time: 00, 01, 10, 11. Scientists speed and scale beyond anything we’ve • Rigetti Computing
have theorized about the possibilities of ever seen. • IBM Q Network
quantum computing for decades and only
built the first working system in 1998.
The challenge, however, has been prov-
ing that a quantum machine is actually
carrying out quantum computations.
That’s because in a quantum system, the
very act of observing information in
transit changes the nature of that data.
Google’s Sycamore performed a challenging

calculation in 200 seconds.

Quantum Computing Trends
Updating Post-Quantum named Sycamore, calculated something earmarking $1.2 billion for quantum Quantum Boosts for Classical
Cryptography Standards that an ordinary computer—even a very research. Last year, the U.S. launched five Computers
powerful one—simply could not have new quantum computing centers, includ-
U.S. National Institute of Standards New kinds of processors are being de-
completed. Sycamore performed a chal- ing one at the Lawrence Berkeley Nation-
and Technology will recommend new signed to add on to existing equipment,
lenging calculation in 200 seconds. On the al Lab to codesign algorithms, quantum
guidelines in 2021 to help organizations to give classic computers a quantum
world’s current fastest traditional com- devices, and engineering solutions; a
transition to new cryptography standards. boost. The end result isn’t a complete
puter, that same calculation would have center at the Fermi National Acceler-
In the U.K, the National Cyber Security quantum computing system, but more of
taken 10,000 years. In February 2021, ator Laboratory to make it easier to
Centre published recommendations for a hybrid. Rigetti Computing is building
researchers from Google and quantum deploy quantum systems; and a center at
any organization using secured transac- small quantum processors that integrate
computing company D-Wave Systems Brookhaven National Laboratory to build
tions. Today’s encryption standards could with the cloud. Pharmaceutical company
solved a real-world challenge 3 million new nuclear, chemical, and physics ap-
quickly become outdated as quantum Merck is experimenting with the pro-
times faster than a classical computer. plications. Some would say that the U.S.
computers improve, and the complexity cessors for faster drug development and
showed up a day late and a few billion
of upgrading IT systems in large organi- production.
Global Quantum Computing dollars short. The U.K. National Quan-
zations will take years to complete.
Race tum Technology Program kicked off in
2013 and is now in its second phase, with
Quantum Supremacy The global quantum computing race is $1.3 billion in investment. Germany’s
In October 2019, Google researchers underway. Several nations, including program is funded at $2.4 billion. A team
published a paper in the journal Nature the U.S., France, the U.K., and China, of researchers from the University of Sci-
as well as a blog post on the company’s want to become the global leader in ence and Technology of China published
website explaining that they had achieved quantum computing. Governments are a paper in the journal Science describing
“quantum supremacy” for the first time. setting the stage now to attract talent and their quantum computer achieving speeds
Quantum computing could transform the future of
It was a significant revelation. Physicists investment, ahead of the first real-world that were 10 billion (yes, billion) times
security, encryption and national security.
said that their 53-bit quantum computer, quantum use cases. The U.S. passed the faster than Google’s Sycamore.
National Quantum Initiative Act in 2018,

Robots
Robots-as-a-Service (RaaS)
Autonomous vehicles are robots that use Using the cloud certainly offers advan- • Amazon AWS Robomaker
Cloud robotics and a network to access maps, understand tages: greater efficiencies and opportu- • Google Cloud Robotics
automation is a field spatial information, and more in order nities for data sharing and insights, as
to make decisions. Each vehicle’s data is well as collective learning across robotic • Fetch Cloud Robotics
in which physical
indexed to the network and optimized networks and shared platforms. Soon,
robots share data and for further use by researchers and other businesses will be able to take advantage
code, and perform vehicles. This is an example of cloud of cloud-based robotics for a variety
robotics, which is used within auton- of uses, including strategic warehouse
computations remotely omous driving as well as in warehouse selection in anticipation of seasonal
Microsoft’s partnership with Open Robotics will
via networks, rather automation and logistics. Amazon’s AWS retail spikes, security in large buildings,
open the Azure cloud platform to ROS developers. than within their RoboMaker is a cloud robotics service and factory automation. There will be
created to develop, test, and deploy millions of implementations of RaaS over
containers alone. intelligent robotics applications at scale. the next five years, which could generate
Its partners include Nvidia, Qualcomm, billions of dollars of revenue.
and UP Squared, and it supports the
most widely used open-source robotics
software framework, Robot Operating
System (ROS). Google’s Cloud Robotics
Core is an open-source platform that
provides digital infrastructure essential to
building and running robotics solutions
for business automation.

Cobots
Collaborative robots are finding more As 5G comes online and reduces latency, • Massachusetts Institute
Collaborative robots— widespread use in industrial settings, cobots will process spatial data at fast of Technology’s Interactive
or cobots—work which can often prove challenging for enough speeds to adapt to environmen- Robotics Group
humans alone. ABB’s YuMi is a cobot tal changes. Today, collaborative robots
alongside humans • Sapienza University of Rome
that works alongside humans, assisting make up just 3% of the current installed
or together with with repetitive tasks. In China, auto- robot base around the world, but that’s • Johns Hopkins Applied
Physics Laboratory
other machines. motive components supplier Hella uses going to change. According to the Inter-
YuMi to help workers assemble parts. national Federation of Robotics, collab- • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Teams of robots can Comau’s Advanced Use Robotic Arm orative robots are the fastest growing
communicate with one (AURA) is a high-payload cobot that segment of new robot sales.
another about when combines vision technology, laser area
scanners, and a touch-sensitive tactile
Cobots are used in a variety of settings.
to wait, when to move, skin that allows it to slow its speed and
when to carry out an force when it comes into contact with a
human operator.
activity, or even to ask
what to do next.

Autonomous, Programmable Robot Swarms

Researchers at Harvard University’s The possibilities are staggering: Auton- • Academy of Opto-Electronics at
Autonomous Wyss Institute are experimenting with omous robot teams could be used to in- the Chinese Academy of Sciences
robot swarms are different form factors drawn from spect dams and bridges, build complicated • Wyss Institute at Harvard University
nature. They developed robots that can 3D structures, and lay protective barriers
coordinated and • Amazon Robotics
autonomously drive interlocking steel in the case of toxic chemical spills—free-
distributed to perform sheet piles into soil. In the future, robots ing up their human counterparts and
complex tasks in a like these could be used to build retaining keeping them out of harm’s way.
walls or check dams for erosion control.
Robot bees could be the future of agriculture. more efficient way Another project, called Kilobots, involves
than a single robot or 1,024 tiny robots working collectively to
non-networked group self-assemble and perform a programmed
task. Walmart filed a patent for robot
of robots could. bees, which would work collaboratively
in teams to pollinate crops autonomous-
ly. If the project works at scale, it could
potentially counterbalance the effects of
the world’s honeybee population decline.

Self-Assembling Robots
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Self-assembling robots offer a host of • The Modular Robotics Laboratory
A new generation of developed a set of robots called M-Blocks possibilities for medicine, manufacturing, at the University of Pennsylvania
robots can now self- that use a barcode system to communi- construction, and the military. The MIT • MIT Computer Science and Artificial
cate. They can identify each other and Computer Science and Artificial Intelli-
assemble, merge, split, Intelligence Laboratory
move as needed to perform designated gence Laboratory built a self-assembling
and repair themselves. tasks, which at the moment include robot called Primer that is controlled by
forming a straight line and moving down magnetic fields. It can put on exoskeleton
a pathway. The Modular Robotics Labo- parts to help it walk, roll, sail, or glide
ratory at the University of Pennsylvania better, depending on the environment.
developed SMORES-EP robots—tiny, Researchers at Georgia Institute of Tech-
cube-shaped, wheeled robots with sen- nology and China’s Peking University
sors and cameras. Moving independently discovered a new technique that mimics
M-Blocks are tiny, cube-shaped wheeled robots and docking with nearby modules, they automatic origami—in initial testing,
with sensors and cameras.
can form different structures and even structures could fold and unfold on their
self-assemble to lift objects and drop own using inexpensive liquid polymers
them off. They also created Variable To- and LED projector bulbs. Self-assembling
pology Trusses, a new class of robot that robots will be tremendous assets in emer-
can quickly reconfigure itself. gency response situations. Imagine a set
of robots forming a temporary staircase
to rescue someone from a burning build-
ing, or a set of bots that can lock together
to form a bridge over flooded roads.

Robot Compilers
Today, the process of designing, pro- Researchers from the Laboratory for Em- • MIT Computer Science and Artificial
We will soon tell gramming, and building robots is bedded Machines and Ubiquitous Robots Intelligence Laboratory
computer systems time-intensive—and the robots’ capabili- at the University of California, Los Ange- • Laboratory for Embedded Machines
ties are limited by original specifications. les; MIT Computer Science and Artificial
what tasks we need and Ubiquitous Robots at the Universi-
In the future, advanced compilers will Intelligence Laboratory, University of ty of California, Los Angeles
completed, and they enable much faster conceptualization and Pennsylvania; and Harvard University
will automatically fabrication for a host of different tasks. are developing new methods for rapid
robot fabrication. 3D robotic systems can
fabricate new robots now be produced using basic software
for the job. Robot and programmed using natural language
compilers would offer commands. Fabricating programmable
robots may not exactly be a simple, DIY
greater efficiencies, weekend project, but promising research
big cost savings, and indicates that robot compilers could soon
enable people with limited technical
increased production knowledge to sketch, design, fabricate,
for manufacturers in and control a robot drawn straight from
every industry. their imagination.
Advanced compilers will supercharge robot

fabrication.

Soft Robotics
Researchers at Worcester Polytechnic In- Massachusetts Institute of Technology • Harvard Biodesign Lab
Soft robotics are stitute created a robotic snake that could engineers created soft and compact 3D • Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies
created to mimic living navigate through rubble or confined printed structures that can be guided
spaces. Bioengineering researchers at the using magnets. The hope is that they can • University of California, Los Angeles,
organisms. Made of Samueli School of Engineering
University of California, Los Angeles, someday help control biomedical devices,
flexible materials, they developed a tissue-based soft robot that take images within the body, clear arte- • MIT Computer Science and Artificial
move in fluid ways and mimics the biomechanics of a stingray. rial blockages, deliver targeted drugs to Intelligence Laboratory’s Soft Contact
Scientists at the BioRobotics Institute specific body parts, or even extract tissue Modeling Group
adapt in real time to Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies in samples. Researchers at Cornell Univer- • Worcester Polytechnic Institute
their surroundings. Italy created a robot octopus, capable of sity developed a robot capable of “sweat-
emulating the animal’s agile motions. To ing.” They built a soft robotic muscle that
replicate the biology of an octopus, they can autonomously regulate its internal
built computer models using exact mea- temperature, just like living organisms
surements and then experimented with do. Someday soon, soft robotics will
a number of soft actuators to develop let us enter and explore environments
artificial muscles. previously unreachable by conventional
methods: deep ocean waters, the terrain
of Mars, and perhaps even the gushing
rivers of blood inside our own bodies.
This robot snake would investigate disasters.

Image credit: Worcester Polytechnic Institute.

Smart Dust
If you watched the “Arkangel” episode It sounds fantastical, but the use of • University of Southern California
Smart dust, also known of “Black Mirror” (season four), you’re MEMS is becoming more common. Robotics Research Lab
as microelectromechan- already familiar with smart dust. For They’re the accelerometer sensors for • CardioMEMS
years, researchers have been hard at our airbag systems and are also found in
ical systems or MEMS, • The Center for Advanced Materials
work on miniaturization, trying to biosensors. Scientists at the University
represents a new way of shrink computers as much as possible, of California, Berkeley, developed what Processing at Clarkson University
atomic-level materials down to the size of grains of sand or they call neural dust, which compris- • Whitesides Research Group at Harvard
specks of dust. Each particle-computer es microscopic computers that work University
engineering. consists of circuits and sensors capable alongside remote ultrasound to send and • Center for Research in Advanced
of monitoring the environment, and receive data about the brain. Meanwhile, Sensing Technologies and Environ-
even taking photographs. They can also researchers at the University of Stuttgart mental Sustainability at Binghamton
harvest energy while suspended, using figured out how to print tiny 3D lens- University
passive Wi-Fi and human body heat to es—120 millionths of a meter in diameter,
power themselves. or about the size of a fine grain of sand.
In health and medicine, this technology
will dramatically change our approach
to imaging. Rather than relying on our
current endoscopic technology, which is
bulky and invasive, a patient could simply
inhale smart dust. Beyond medicine,
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agen- trillions of smart dust particles could be
cy’s miniaturized “laboratories on a chip” were released in the wind to measure air quali-
developed to detect biological weapons in the field,
ty or take photos.
among other uses.

Commercial Quadrupedal Robots

By emulating the form and mobility of For now, Boston Dynamics is the only • Boston Dynamics
Quadrupedal robots four-legged animals, these robots can be company selling advanced robots like
have four articulat- deployed in situations that wheeled or Spot for commercial, nonmilitary pur-
tread-equipped robots cannot navigate poses. The ecosystem is still forming, but
ed legs and can move
and that may be too dangerous or phys- as developers build applications across
around difficult terrain, ically inaccessible for human interven- different industries, we expect to see
making them useful tion. Boston Dynamics started selling a new use cases emerge, particularly in
quadruped in October 2019 and released safety, security, maintenance, emergency
tools for inspections and an enterprise model last year. The robot, response, military, and even consumer
security applications. named Spot, looks like a headless dog and contexts.
moves with the agility and athleticism of
a border collie. Spot can map environ-
ments, move around difficult terrain, and
interact with a range of different objects.
It docks and charges on its own.
Spot is a robotic dog from Boston Dynamics.

Mars Dogs
Current robots designed for off-planet These biomimetic robots will work as • NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
NASA is working on exploration have wheels. While they’re teams, much as human explorers do. Au- • NASA Ames Research Center
Mars Dog, a four- designed to roll over rugged terrain, Spots, traveling in packs, will assist each
they’re limited to generally flat surfaces other as they climb, jump, and descend • McGill University
legged robot for
or gentle slopes. Scientists from NASA’s unfamiliar terrain on Mars. • Boston Dynamics
exploring the red Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Ames
planet. Research Center and McGill Univer-
sity are developing a modified version
of Spot, the quadrupedal robotic dog
created by Boston Dynamics. Au-Spot, as
it is known, is built for Mars: It has AI to
learn about surfaces, a communications
module, and an array of sensors (thermal,
visual, motion). Au-Spot should be able
to climb over rocks, up steep hills, and
into underground caves.
A robotic dog could someday patrol Mars.

Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech.

Ethical Manufacturing
Sometimes a $5.99 T-shirt is too good As robots become more affordable and • United Nations Alliance
Robots could bring an to be true. Unfortunately forced labor is available, they could eliminate unethical for Sustainable Fashion
end to forced labor common in places including Uzbekistan, practices in manufacturing. But creating • World Fair Trade Organization
China, and Bangladesh. More humane more humane work environments could
and lead a new era of • Bluesign Technologies
manufacturing processes in fast fashion destabilize developing economies. Even
ethical manufacturing. and other industries could lead to im- with extremely low wages, a workforce • Oeko-Tex
proved working conditions for millions can sustain a local economy—when those • Ethical Trading Initiative
of people. wages are lost as workers are replaced
by robots, the flow of money through
the community can go from a trickle to
a drought.
Workers at a garment factory in Southeast Asia.

Robot Rights
Instances of humans bullying or abus- When it comes to our interactions • Human Interaction With Nature and
Some believe that we ing robots have increased. The Human with robots, what constitutes a moral Technological Systems Lab at the Uni-
have moral obligations Interaction With Nature and Techno- violation? What rights should robots versity of Washington
logical Systems Lab at the University of have, given that so many companies are
to our machines, and • ATR Intelligent Robotics and Commu-
Washington discovered that children building smart interfaces and cognitive nication Laboratories
that robots should didn’t show the same kind of empathy for systems? If we are teaching machines to
have rights. robots that they do other humans. In the think, and to learn from us humans, then
study, 60% of the child subjects thought what moral codes are we programming
Children bullied a robot. that a humanoid robot named Robovie-II into our future generations of robots?
Image credit: ATR Intelligent Robotics and had feelings—yet more than half of them Answering these questions will become
Communication Laboratories. thought it was fine to lock him in the increasingly urgent as robots proliferate
closet. Researchers at ATR Intelligent in many aspects of our everyday lives.
Robotics and Communication Laborato-
ries, Osaka University, Ryukoku Univer-
sity, and Tokai University conducted an
experiment to measure human empathy
toward robots. They deployed Robovie
through a mall in Osaka, Japan, without
a human minder. If someone walked into
the robot’s path, it would politely ask the
human to move. Adults complied—but
children didn’t. And if unsupervised, the
children were intentionally mean, kick-
ing the robot, yelling at it, and bullying it.

Robots as Essential Workers

Fleets of robots were deployed worldwide Do robots need worker rights, too? • Diligent Robotics
During the pandemic, in 2020. They autonomously sanitized Researchers raise this question now, • UBTech Robotics
robots became hospital rooms, monitored patients re- especially as robots are predicted to take
motely, picked up and delivered prescrip- on more meaningful roles within the • Sanbot
essential workers.
tions, took our temperatures, made pizzas workplace and in society. The European • Zipline
and salads, and assisted front-line medical Union is already discussing whether • Starship Technologies
workers. Some robots required direct there ought to be a special legal status of
supervision, but many of them worked “electronic persons” to protect sophisti- • JD.com
alone. In Austin, Texas, robots developed cated robots. • ZoraBots
Governments need to create by Diligent Robotics retrieved supplies
• UVD Robots
national registries of robots. for hospital rooms, which freed staff to
spend more time with their patients.
Such a registry would let
citizens and law enforcement
Robots retrieved supplies so hospital staff could look up the owner of any
focus on patient care.
Image courtesy of Diligent Robotics.
roaming robot, as well as
learn that robot’s purpose.
It’s not a far-fetched idea:
The U.S. Federal Aviation
Administration already has a
registry for drones.
— Stacey Higginbotham, tech journalist

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
The Next telepresence for tele-health. How-

ever most of these robots were
Generation of limited to simple, pre-scripted
routines or required teleoperation
Robots Must by a human.
Be Adaptable, This underscores the challenge fac-

ing robots today: Deploying robots
Customizable and in the chaos of hospitals or grocery
Trainable stores is much more complex than
deploying them in the relatively
consistent and controllable envi-
ronment of factories and ware-
Dr. Henny Admoni houses. As robotics moves forward,
A. Nico Habermann Assistant the field must grapple with dynam-
Professor, Human-Computer icism at every part of the robot’s
Interaction Institute, sense-plan-act loop.
Carnegie Mellon University One way to deal with dynamic or
surprising environments is to be
adaptable, and robot learning thus
With COVID-19 locking us all at continues to be a perennial theme.
home, robots should have had their The field has gotten pretty good
moment in 2020, taking over basic at making robots that perform
tasks that keep society functioning. pre-scripted tasks, and now the big
challenge is creating robots that
We did see some examples of
are adaptable, customizable, and
robots disinfecting public spaces,
trainable.
taking temperatures, and enabling
both promising approaches. Robot much of robotics and AI, it’s more **
learning will likely continue to be a complicated than it initially seems.
hot topic in academic programs, Henny Admoni is an Assistant Pro-
Robot learning will research, and industry for several
Of course, it’s impossible to talk fessor in the Robotics Institute at
likely continue to be a years.
about robotics (and its close cousin Carnegie Mellon University, and
AI) without mentioning robot ethics. also has a courtesy appointment
hot topic in academic If the 2010s was the decade for The past year has seen increased in the Human-Computer Interac-
programs, research, dreams about autonomous vehi- social consciousness along a
tion Institute at CMU. She leads
cles, the 2020s are the decade in number of dimensions, not least
and industry for several which we wake up and realize it’s of which is the societal impact of
the Human And Robot Partners
(HARP) Lab, which studies how to
years. not as easy as we thought. (By the automated systems. In late 2020,
develop intelligent robots that can
way, I’m not picking on AVs; this is a Google fired researcher Timnit
recurring trend in robotics.) Gebru, launching a national con- assist and collaborate with humans
Deep learning (DL) continues to on complex tasks like preparing a
versation around accountability
be a dominant force in this area, The end of 2020 saw big news with meal. She holds an MS and PhD in
and ethics in AI. Even before that,
especially in perception and natu- Uber selling off its autonomous
though, we saw major AI failures Computer Science from Yale Uni-
ral language generation. However, driving unit to Aurora Innovation,
in vaccine distribution, education, versity, and a BA/MA joint degree in
people are also finding the limits a startup with deep robotics ex-
and policing. One heartening trend Computer Science from Wesleyan
of DL systems—such as their reli- pertise. Many of the bold promises
is an increased awareness and University.
ance on very large data sets and about autonomous vehicles from
interest in AI ethics. For example,
their brittleness to novel inputs. the last few years have not panned
universities are starting to offer
Human-in-the-loop learning (in out, and the industry seems to be
more tech ethics courses and
which a person curates input or settling down now to solve the very
students are increasingly asking for
provides feedback on a robot’s real, very hard problems of per-
ethics to be included in their tech-
performance) and active learning ception, prediction, controls, and
nical education.
(in which a robot seeks out the human-robot interaction. I’m con-
most relevant new information) are fident we’ll get there, but, as with

Logistics &
Supply Chain
Capturing IIoT Metadata

In an industrial setting, sensors, switches, There is no unified approach for how • Maana
The industrial internet and connected devices generate a tre- to handle metadata in manufacturing • Plataine
of things ( IIoT) refers mendous amount of data. That data can and other IIoT settings—and at the
be mined, refined, and analyzed for cost moment, not all systems and devices are • Augury
to all of the hardware
savings, greater efficiencies, and even interoperable. The metadata itself could • ThetaRay
that’s collecting, new product development. For exam- help solve that problem, by identifying • SparkCognition
sharing, and using ple, Palo Alto, California–based Maana communication protocols that would
extracts metadata to optimize a compa- facilitate the exchange of data through-
data within industrial ny’s processes by revealing previously out a network. Metadata will make it
settings. Some of unknown relationships. Austin, Texas– easier for businesses to organize the data
what’s being collected based SparkCognition uses metadata for generated from all of their connected
predictive maintenance applications in machinery within the IIoT. Advances
is metadata, which energy, gas, and utilities. in artificial intelligence will offer deeper
describes the data levels of insight into process automation.
that’s being generated.
Sensors, switches, and connected machines gen-

erate lots of data.

Automating the Supply Chain

Autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and The robotics industry will drastical- • Amazon Robotics
Mobile automation autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) will ly transform the supply chain. Some • Robotic Industries Association
in the supply chain become more commonplace, which will researchers anticipate that 6 million
bring cost savings and efficiencies for mobile robots will be shipped within the • Mobile Industrial Robots
is a quickly maturing
businesses. A new class of autonomous next decade, shifting every sector of the
market. While this robots and vehicles running on AI-pow- global economy.
means greater ered logistics systems is coming. In a
warehouse setting, autonomous mobile
efficiencies and cost robots assign global tasks, set paths, and
savings for businesses, optimize tasks like picking. Berkshire
it also portends job Grey is an AI-powered automated system
that picks, packs, sorts, and transports
losses for workers who products autonomously to fulfillment
operate warehouse centers, resulting in a 75% reduction in
direct human labor.
equipment.
Berkshire Grey raised $263 million in new funding

last year.

Sustainability in Supply Chain and Logistics

The U.N. Global Compact encourag- As buying power shifts from Gen X • Sustainability Accounting
Pressure from es companies to make sustainability a and Millennials to Gen Z, supply chain Standards Board
investors, customers, priority from the top of the organiza- sustainability will become more import- • Global Reporting Initiative
tion down into supply chains. India, ant—younger consumers repeatedly say
and governments—in • U.N. Sustainable Development Goals
Indonesia, and China have mandated they prefer brands that support environ-
addition to extreme reporting of sustainability practices, and mental causes. Investors are taking note:
weather events and they will begin publishing their findings. In an Oxford University Saïd Business
Levi Strauss & Co. partnered with the School study of 70 senior executives at
trade tensions— International Finance Corp. to provide 43 global institutional investing firms,
demands new efforts lower interest rates for vendors that have including the world’s three biggest asset
to build sustainable sustainability practices in place. managers (BlackRock, Vanguard, and
State Street), sustainability was a key
supply chains. priority for 2021 and beyond.
Sustainability in the supply chain is a primary

driving force in business.

Rethinking the Cold Chain

Last year the cold chain was in the We put an enormous amount of trust in • QCMedchain
Cold chains are national spotlight, because the most the cold chain to protect the food and • StaTwig
temperature- promising COVID-19 vaccines from medicines we ingest. Companies are
Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna required beginning to look at new sustainability • Smashtag Chill
controlled supply
an ultracold transportation system. If the opportunities to improve the cold chain. • Solar Freeze
chains—critical temperature fluctuates or the cold stor- One area of interest is artificial intelli- • NelumBox
for goods such as age fails, it could render doses ineffective. gence in the cloud, which can help mon-
The cold chain is how your local grocery itor temperatures and can also optimize
medications, produce, store can sell sushi made from raw tuna travel routes. New packaging materials
and frozen foods. and salmon farmed halfway around insulate food and medicine, keeping
the world. The reason we can enjoy ice both at low temperatures without hav-
cream in the heat of the summer is the ing to refrigerate entire trucks. Climate
cold chain: a complicated system of stor- change could result in new regulations
ing and transporting food and medicine that limit how the cold chain works, but
in exactly the right temperature range new kinds of intelligent packaging and
during the trek from farm to factory to automated transportation systems mean
store. But in some areas of the world, new business opportunities.
the cold chain has contributed to climate
change.
Many COVID-19 vaccines require a stable

cold chain.

Additive Manufacturing
3D additive manufacturing has moved If you’re thinking of the “Star Trek” • Autodesk
Additive from the fringe to the mainstream, replicator, you’re not far off. Research- • Formlabs
manufacturing is a offering new opportunities in medical ers are working toward scanning and
and biosciences, manufacturing, and art. producing objects in seconds—over • Apis Cor
process by which
LaserFactory, a project from MIT’s Com- time, this technology will be used in
materials are puter Science and Artificial Intelligence surgical centers to rapidly print re-
deposited layer by Lab, uses silver conductive ink to attach placement valves and joints using your
circuits together and print circuit boards. own biomatter as models. We don’t yet
layer as objects are Soon, “one size fits all” will take on a have international product liability and Could a brick ever behave
printed. whole new meaning. Chinese researchers intellectual property standards, norms, like a human cell and
successfully printed ceramics capable of and regulations that govern additive evolve, replicate [and]
transforming over time in response to manufacturing and printing. A regulato-
A team at U.K.’s Nottingham Trent University stimuli such as heat and light. It’s a pro- ry framework built to protect designers,
assemble organically
are printing artificial muscles.
cess known as 4D printing, and the prac- patents, corporations, and individuals is with others? Could the
tical applications are boundless. Imagine likely on the horizon. objects we now build out of
a heat shield that suddenly materializes concrete and steel ever be
during a fire, or a garden that plants itself
as adaptable, intelligent,
when the ground has warmed to precise-
ly the ideal temperature for each seed. and multifunctional as those
grown from the earth?
— Paola Antonelli, Museum of Modern Art

curator and director of MoMA R&D

Drones
Drones
Companies now use drones for mapping

Drones have seen and inspections in agriculture, mining,
unprecedented market and construction. Drones inspect dan-
gerous and hard-to-reach places such as
growth and rapid
chemical weapons plants and erupting
adoption across various volcanoes. The emergence of COVID-19
industries, thanks to and racial injustice protests accelerat-
ed the already-fast adoption of drone
lower costs, easier technology. Last year, UPS, CVS, and
manufacturing, and drone tech company Matternet launched
their effectiveness in a drone delivery pilot program that al-
lowed Florida residents to shelter in place
a wide range of use and receive medical deliveries including
cases. documents and blood samples. Contro-
versially, government and citizen drones
also tracked protesters and police during
widespread marches for social justice,
and monitored social distancing amid the
pandemic in places including New York,
Paris, Mumbai, and China.
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of drones.

Drones continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT a constellation of AI-powered cameras, EMERGING PLAYERS
The use of drones allows us to work biometric recognition systems, airborne • Zipline
outside the limitations of the human unmanned vehicles, lidar, and mobile
• Anduril
body in a very cost-effective way. We’ll phone monitoring systems, to create
likely see a wave of mergers and acqui- a “smart wall” that conducts detailed • Terra Drone
sitions among flight service providers, surveillance, primarily for use at the • Hemav
hardware startups, drone and aircraft Texas-Mexico border. The bill stalled
• Matternet
manufacturers, asset and flight path in committee, but in the wake of recent
management software makers, and data public unrest, there’s renewed interest—
processing platforms. The growing and now, better technology—to make
sector may give rise to a new “drones-as- the proposal a reality.
a-service” business model akin to the car
and scooter sharing industry, delivering
access to drones without the interven-
tion of specially trained experts. We’ll
also see more government uses, includ-
ing identifying terrorists and monitoring
immigration. In 2017, U.S. Rep. Will
Hurd (R-Texas) proposed the Secure
Miles with All Resources and Technolo-
gy (SMART) Act, which would employ
Agricultural drones can manage crop health from the air.

Drone Swarms
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES Civilian applications include dazzling
The U.S. Army is developing a Cluster light shows and dynamic aerial artwork.
Drone swarms, or fleets UAS Smart Munition for Missile Deploy- Disney and Intel are creating a new type
of light show that uses 300 drones with
of networked drones ment that would allow a swarm of small
drones to fan out and destroy vehicles multicolored lights that fly in unison at
capable of coordinated with “explosively formed penetrators,” Disney World.
operations and com- or EFPs. The U.S. Navy Office of Naval
munication, are being Research intends to launch a swarm of
Coyote drones, made by U.S. military
developed for military
contractor Raytheon, for intelligence,
operations, surveil- reconnaissance, and potentially weapon-
lance, and other com- ry. Turkey has deployed Kargu tactical
plex functions without kamikaze drones on the Syrian border
via remote pilots. In October, China
human interaction. In a conducted a test launch of 48 “suicide”
drone swarm, the col- drones from a truck and helicopter. This
lective functionality of follows a number of other larger swarm-
drone experiments by the country in
the overall network be- 2017. The U.S. Army plans to build an
comes more important autonomous charging system that swarm
than each individual drones could fly to for charging before
redeployment. The Army is also working
300 unmanned drones performed aerial formations and light shows during the rehearsal for Singapore
National Day Parade in 2017.
drone, and the group of on a giant recharging drone called the
drones can “learn” and Joint Tactical Aerial Resupply Vehicle,
adapt synergistically. which is also intended to serve swarms.

Drones Swarms continued
Swarms of drones would allow a single • U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research
delivery truck to service a full neigh- • U.K. Defence Science and Technology
borhood or multiple drones to work Laboratory
together in the manner of a school of
fish. Ideally, future swarms will use what • China Electronics Technology Group
Nora Ayanian, a roboticist at University
of Southern California, calls “leveraging
diversity in the control policy,” in which
each drone is programmed slightly dif-
ferently so that the one best suited to the
task teaches the rest of the swarm how
to act. This could make drones more
robust in unstructured and uncertain en-
vironments, such as in disaster response,
environmental monitoring, and military
applications.
Drone swarms fan out to automatically amd work as a team to accomplish goals.

Drone Fleets
The pandemic accelerated drone-delivery Amazon has also filed patents for inter- • Amazon
Fleets of drones certification approvals, as many con- esting drone-fleet logistics, including a • Google’s Wing
operating as air sumers avoided brick-and-mortar stores. gigantic beehive-like structure, where
Amazon received U.S. Federal Aviation drones would dock and receive packages, • UPS
carriers will begin
Administration clearance last year to be- and a laundry chute system attached to • FedEx
making package gin making commercial deliveries under houses where packages would drop safe- • Walgreens
deliveries soon. a trial program. Amazon joined UPS and ly and tumble down to customers.
• CVS
Google as companies certified to make
autonomous deliveries. Google’s Wing,
partnering with Walgreens and FedEx,
began its tests last year. UPS now flies
medical supplies between buildings on a
Raleigh, N.C., hospital campus.
Amazon’s patent for a multilevel urban hive.

Cognitive Active Safety Features

Netradyne makes AI-powered dash Vehicle manufacturers will continue to • Netradyne

Car manufacturers, cameras that monitor real-time road implement and tout active safety features • Driveri
seeking to meet conditions to reduce accidents. Compa- to attract safety-minded consumers, with
nies can use the technology inside fleet software representing the next wave of • Comma.ai
consumer preferences,
vehicles to monitor driving behavior advances. Car manufacturer develop- • Tesla
are quickly adopting and teach commercial drivers how to ment cycles, historically occurring over a
proactive safety be safer and more efficient drivers. 10 year span, will accelerate as platforms
Comma.ai created Openpilot, an open- become increasingly software-driven.
functions that also source software driver assistance system
provide the building that uses a $1,200 camera and develop-
blocks for full ment kit that allows people to trans-
form their cars so they steer, accelerate
autonomous driving. and brake automatically, as with Tesla’s
Autopilot. Comma.ai works with a
large variety of car models and man-
ufacturers via a customized Android
cell phone mounted to the windshield
and connected to the vehicle’s existing
adaptive cruise control hardware.
Increasingly advanced safety features are laying the

foundation for autonomous vehicles.

Autonomous Last Mile Delivery

Nuro, a startup founded by former A study from the World Economic • Nuro
Autonomous delivery Google engineers, is developing auton- Forum found that rising demand in • Refraction AI
is becoming more omous vehicles for last-mile deliveries, e-commerce will lead to a 36% increase
including take-out, groceries, laundry, in delivery vehicles in the largest 100 • Cenntro Automotive Group
common, driven in
and packages. JD.com has autonomously global cities by 2030, and last-mile • Arrival
part by an increased delivered more than 13,000 packages, delivery will spike 78%. The first widely • Rivian
desire for contactless traveling 6,900 kilometers in lockdown deployed autonomous vehicles likely
environments. Cenntro Automotive won’t be transporting humans but rather
interactions brought Group’s CityPorter electric vehicle will familiar goods—like pizza. These sorts of
about by the soon make urban deliveries, while Gen- autonomous deliveries will continue to
pandemic. Delivery is eral Motors launched a new last-mile gain momentum as a reliable, data-rich,
delivery business called BrightDrop. and cost-effective solution for last-mile
an ideal testing and transportation with the potential to
development ground improve customer experiences. These
relatively low-stakes deliveries will
for autonomous socialize autonomous technology in
vehicles, as the hurdles everyday society, easing the transition to
for safely transporting autonomous vehicle systems for trans-
porting people.
food are lower than
Starship Technologies uses robots to deliver food those for safely
and drinks to George Mason University students.
transporting humans.

Air Lanes
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration Regulators have an opportunity to pre- • U.S. Federal Aviation Administration
The proliferation of has updated its Part 135 certification pro- empt congestion, ensure safety, manage • International Civil Aviation
drones will lead to more cess for package deliveries by drone and is community perception, ensure privacy Organization
creating new regulation for air safety and and learn from road and air travel if they
aviation guidelines, in- • European Union Aviation
industry guidelines. UPS Flight Forward proactively create aerial infrastructure
cluding “air lanes” that was the first to receive a Standard Part 135 along with key stakeholders. Cities and Safety Agency
will guide low-flying air- air carrier certificate to operate a drone states will then need to develop regulation • Civil Aviation Administration of China
aircraft in 2019. The FAA is now working to ensure interoperability of drone lanes.
craft, both piloted and with industry as well as state, local, and
• South African Civil Aviation Authority
autonomous. Where tribal governments to inform future rules • Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore
and when these new and regulations.

The FAA’s new BEYOND program will
aircraft can operate will develop and scale drone delivery opera-
significantly impact the tions, establishing rules for infrastructure
built and natural envi- inspection and public operations. The
program will also gather data and commu-
ronment, and managing nity feedback on the social and economic
the number of flying benefits of drones. Vodafone and Ericsson
will work together to prove how safe
drones will be important
flight path corridors can be created within
Proactive planning can help avoid an aerial overload. to ensure safety and existing cellular network coverage. Using
Image credit: Flightradar24.
noise pollution. network traffic data ensures that autono-
mous drones avoid areas of poor network
coverage to guarantee connectivity from
departure to destination.
Flying Taxis
In 2021, Cadillac introduced a vertical Most designs use electric engines that • European Organisation for the Safety
Compact, unmanned take-off and landing (eVTOL) personal allow for vertical landing and takeoff of Air Navigation
electric aircraft air taxi. It’s General Motors’ first foray in urban spaces, enable short- to me- • New Zealand government
into the increasingly crowded aerial dium-distance trips, and rely on both
have moved beyond • EHang
mobility space. Hyundai, Aston Martin, piloted and autonomous formats. NASA
the concept stage, and other carmakers announced plans Ames Research Center and the U.S.
and now a flurry of to build their own eVTOL aircraft. But Federal Aviation Administration are
there have been setbacks: A fire inside a currently working to create regulations
prototype tests at hangar destroyed a prototype by Ger- for safety and air traffic control. The
companies worldwide many-based Lilium; Boeing’s Aurora result could be hundreds of thousands
could open the door Flight Sciences prototype crashed; and of delivery drones and air taxis flying
Kitty Hawk’s one-person vehicle, Flyer, in urban and suburban airspace, open-
General Motors debuted its concept eVTOL in 2021.
for autonomous air suffered fires involving batteries, electric ing up a new medium of travel for the
travel services to take motors, and wiring. mainstream passenger and impacting
transit design, congestion, and travel
individuals and small times. The high rate of crashes in the
groups short distances. helicopter travel industry, including
the high-profile fatal crash of Kobe and
Gianna Bryant and seven other people in
2020, highlights the need for increased
safety in this burgeoning area.

Follow-Me Autonomously
Many photo- and video-enabled con- The ability to automatically avoid crash- • DJI
“Follow-me” sumer drones available today have “fol- es and reroute around obstacles greatly • Skydio
functionality, whereby low-me” and crash-avoidance function- increases a drone’s safety and versatility.
ality, enabling semi-autonomous flight, Autonomous conflict avoidance and • Yuneec
a drone is able to
where a subject is kept in the frame of follow-me functionality reduce stress
detect and pursue a the camera without the need for a des- and sensory demand on the remote pilot,
moving subject, has ignated pilot. This is ideal for capturing making indoor flight easier and expand-
solo activities like skiing, surfing, and ing the range of circumstances in which
burst onto the scene dance. Most of these drones rely on GPS drones can be safely operated.
in personal drones transmitter technology or recognition
for photography and software, such as DJI ActiveTrack.
videography, but it has

potential applications
in a range of settings
and situations.
Follow-me functionality allows drone operators to

capture the moment without worrying about piloting.

Inspection Drones
Drone inspections are being performed Increasingly frequent extreme weather • Carnegie Mellon University
As natural disasters in almost every industry that requires events will further strain infrastructure. • Neurala
and extreme weather visual inspections, in the aftermath of As civil aviation authorities grant new
a weather event or as part of routine certifications to allow flights beyond • Optelos
events become more
maintenance. Drones can capture visual the visual line of sight, drones will gain • PowerVision Robots
common, drones data more safely than humans can— access to remote gas pipelines, power
will help with the and AI systems process those data in lines, and other areas that are often only
real time. Carnegie Mellon University reachable by dangerous backroads.
rapid inspection and researchers are developing an AI system
interpretation of that will review amateur drone footage
critical infrastructure. of damage from 2020’s Hurricane Laura
so that it can perform rapid damage
assessments in the future. The system
would automatically identify buildings
and offer preliminary damage assess-
ments, increasing situational awareness
and significantly reducing cost and
human labor.
Drones can inspect infrastructure in places that are

too dangerous for humans.

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

The U.S. Navy first developed underwa- Underwater drones are changing the • Blueye Robotics
Drones aren’t just ter drones, and such devices were used to business dynamics of marine construc- • Geneinno
for air and land. discover the wreck of the Titanic in 1985. tion, potentially increasing underwater
Modern drones are far more advanced. land usage. The potential of improved • Youcan Robot
Underwater drones Today’s autonomous underwater vehicles underwater surface mapping could also • Notilo Plus
have been around are used to disable mines; to explore for
cut the costs of laying the transatlantic
oil and gas drilling; to inspect nets; to feed
since the 1950s, and stock fisheries; and to reduce costs for cables that serve as the backbone of the
monitoring, building, and maintaining internet, enabling increased competition
but in recent years and connectivity. Military autonomous
underwater assets. General Dynamics’
the technology has Bluefin-21 drone is known for its 2014 underwater vehicles could be used in
improved dramatically search for the wreckage from Malaysia both offensive and defensive capacities
Airlines Flight 370. Boeing’s Echo Voyag- including intelligence, network infra-
due to better batteries, er is the largest autonomous underwater structure, port security, and more.
low-light high- vehicle, weighing 100,000 pounds, and
it can also go the deepest. Boeing and
definition cameras, Huntington Ingalls Industries are now
and lighter control developing the Orca drone submarine,
designed for military combat, surveil-
boxes and sensors. lance, and minesweeping. Lockheed
Autonomous vehicles could significantly help to
Martin’s Marlin can create 3D models of
maintain and inspect underwater structures.
its surrounding environment in real time.
The navies of France, Japan, Russia, and
China, meanwhile, are developing their
own underwater technologies. Under-
water drones have even become popular
among consumer hobbyists and can be
407 purchased online for $500 to $3,000.
Transportation
Vehicular Biospheres
In its 2015 Model X SUV, Tesla designed The pandemic has made people more • Tesla
Vehicles are evolving an air filtration system called Bioweapon sensitive to potential environmental • Illumination
into controlled Defense Mode that’s allegedly capable hazards. Many limit their travel source
of protecting passengers from a mili- to only their private cars in order to • Geely Group
mobile biospheres
tary-grade biological attack. The system limit exposure. Vehicles as extended
that allow people uses a HEPA filter that can remove personal biospheres or exosuits could
to move through the particles as small as 0.3 micrometers, necessitate the expansion of dense urban
roughly the width of a single strand environments and prompt designers to
world and spend of spider silk. Geely Group says it will build experiences with the assumption
extended periods spend $53 million to develop cars that that everyone will participate from with-
in their cars without purify the air of the cabin and filter out in their own personal biosphere.
viruses. These sorts of features arrive as
subjecting themselves vehicular activities like drive-by parties
to the elements and and parades become increasingly com-
mon as distanced options for socializing
contagions. and attending events amid the pandemic,
along with an uptick in curbside or in-
store pickups for online purchases. The
world’s largest drive-through animated
light show—in Marietta, Georgia, for the
Cars are being used as mobile “quarantine” zones. 2020 holiday season—extended 1 mile in
length and took 30 minutes to traverse.

Intra-biosphere and
intra-pod mobility
Far-future pessimistic scenario

Car customization shops begin adding options for virus
safe air-conditioning systems in addition to their existing
armor plating and explosive device countermeasures to
a-la-carte modifications for the ultra-rich. The option
becomes so popular that car manufacturers take notice,
creating car-based biosphere isolation specifications for
the entire industry to follow. As a result, cars come with
biosphere certifications that allow occupants to prove
they did not encounter any contagions, so they can speed
through any contagion testing or quarantine restrictions.

Battery-Supported Transportation
Battery-powered transportation now Energy prices, reliable and safe batteries, • Tesla
The rise of battery- extends beyond cars, trucks, and buses to and convenient, affordable recharging • ChargePoint
supported motorized bicycles, hoverboards, skate- infrastructure will drive adoption of
boards, and scooters. The battery-pow- electric transportation. Utility provid- • EVgo
transportation will
ered transportation movement will drive ers will be pressured to improve grid • Blink Charging
change how we power new business models and gradually cut resiliency as demand grows for domestic
vehicles, transforming demand for fossil fuel-powered trans- charging. Those first movers to provide
port. California will phase out the sale of charging infrastructure along travel
an infrastructure gasoline-powered cars by 2035, making routes will shift traffic patterns and
that has historically a robust and reliable electrical grid even create new networked economies—simi-
sourced energy from more critically important in the state. lar to how the interstate highway system
Risks are highlighted by the regular roll- created an economic boom for certain
gasoline to one that ing power outages during California’s towns and hurt those cities that were
delivers it via the wildfire season—or Texas’s widespread bypassed.
blackout during a winter storm in early
electrical grid. 2021—and are underscored by Tesla’s
new in-car warnings to drivers about
upcoming power outages nearby.
Transitioning to grid power from fossil fuels will test

energy delivery infrastructure.

Distributed Grid Competing Standards VHS vs Betamax,

But for Cars
Mid-future optimistic scenario Mid-future neutral scenario Mid-future catastrophic scenario

Charging infrastructure becomes fully Charging infrastructure develops region- Energy infrastructure delineates the
standardized and interoperable. Charging al level interoperability with one or two haves from the have-nots. The charging
stations become commonplace and are primary standards to which all-electric ve- networks are not interoperable, and we de-
readily available publicly and privately on hicles can connect. Public charging stations velop dongle hell for cars. Fragmentation
highways, rural roads, and urban centers. concentrate around interstate highways persists until there is market saturation
Fast and slow charging is readily available and urban centers, driven by the adoption and the government steps in, mandating
in homes and at charging stations. The of upper-middle-class commuters and interoperability. Think Apple iPhone forc-
electrical infrastructure adapts and offers commercial trucks. Most of the charging ing people to buy Bluetooth headphones
dynamic energy consumption across the happens at home with residential charge versus Android phones, only this time it is
entire system, reducing pollution and points. Electricity infrastructure has a lim- Tesla versus Volkswagen.
delivering cleaner energy than its petro- ited adaptation to the increased demand. Fuel for power plants and electricity
leum-based predecessors. Power generation continues with limited generation does not adapt, so the elec-
The grid becomes distributed, scalable, and decreases in overall pollution. Utilities tricity powering our transportation is
self-routing in a manner that maximizes aggressively incentivize consumers to shift less efficient and more polluting than the
efficiency and safety. Consumption can electricity demand across non-peak times gas-powered cars they are replacing. We
be predicted and mapped very accurately, by limiting fast charge times and condi- become increasingly dependent on the out-
reducing peak load and overcapacity needs. tions. Blackouts and brownouts become dated infrastructure that begins to decay
Systems are designed and developed where more common and predictable like snow- at an increasing rate under the new load
batteries and devices connected to the grid storm and fire disruptions… inconvenient, causing frequent brownouts and blackouts.
can receive and return power as needed in but generally accepted. States and municipalities begin to com-
an open ecosystem. pete on delivering power, redistributing
population centers, furthering divisions of
wealth and opportunity.

Car OS
Amazon, Apple, and Google are compet- The major platform players increasingly • Tesla
Platforms are building ing to gain a foothold in the auto enter- view car ecosystems as prime real estate • Google’s Android Automotive OS
operating systems for tainment industry as carmakers incor- not only for customer attention but for
porate smartphones directly into driving data collection. As consumers spend • Amazon’s Alexa Custom Assistant
smart cockpits.
interfaces. Amazon’s Alexa Custom As- more time in their cars without as much • Apple’s CarPlay
sistant was developed for the enterprise: need to pay attention to actually driv-
Companies such as Stellantis are using it ing, carmakers must decide whether to
to develop their smart cockpits. Volvo’s design their own systems and compete
Polestar 2 uses the Android Automotive with tech titans or to give up ownership
OS custom-built by Google. of the infotainment dashboard to third
parties. The applications available on
each car platform will likely determine
adoption and ultimately decide the mar-
ket winners and losers.
Technology companies are building operating sys-

tems for the cockpit.

Transportation-as-a-Service Business Models

The business model of ride-sharing The high upfront investment, main- • Gett
The business models services Uber, Lyft, Via, and Gett now tenance costs, and rapid depreciation • Via Transportation
for transportation extends beyond cars. Citi Bike provides associated with traditional car owner-
rentals of electric and non-electric bi- ship will dissuade potential car owners • Sixt
are shifting to
cycles, while Bird, Spin, Skip, eCooltra, as they avail themselves of transporta-
subscription and pay- and Ioscoot offer scooter rentals. Car tion options with subscription models
per-use structures, rental companies like Hertz, Avis, and or per-use rates. Consumers will likely
Sixt now offer rentals by subscription, demand business models that are per-
as bike, scooter, by the minute, or by the mile in specific sonalized and maximize flexibility and
and car ride-sharing urban centers. Carmakers are also test- cost-efficiency. What year will fleet-
services become more ing new ownership models, such as Audi
Select, Access by BMW, Genesis Spec-
owned autonomous
common. trum, Porsche Drive, and Porsche Host. cars outnumber
family-owned cars in
the U.S.?
New business models are shifting from ownership to

subscriptions and pay-as-you-go.

Forced Updates
Forced updates can be either good or When a provider like Microsoft or • Tesla
In an ideal world, bad. When Tesla issued an update to its Google changes a keyboard shortcut or • Amazon
keeping software Model 3 that improved braking distance switches the delete and archive button,
by a full 19 feet, that was good. When frustration often ensues. Now imagine • Google
updated ensures
Microsoft’s Windows 10 forced an if Tesla reprogrammed which button • Apple
the safest and best unannounced mandatory restart in the or pedal sounded your horn, or applied • General Motors
experience possible. middle of a professional gamer’s lives- your brakes—the result could be cat-
• Microsoft
tream to 130,000 followers, that was not astrophic. Or say you’re in a rush to a
But in reality updates good. Microsoft has since rethought its critical meeting, but because of a billing
are often mandatory policy of forced updates. hiccup on your car’s lease, security soft-
and sometimes cannot ware suddenly kicks in that restricts your
maximum speed to 65 mph. Automotive
be postponed or platforms will evolve continuously, with
avoided, meaning they new features and functionality added via
over-the-air firmware updates. Provid-
can unexpectedly take ers will increasingly navigate the difficult
systems offline, force path of introducing new features to keep
unwanted changes, pace with evolving technologies and
improving customer experiences, while
and expose users to ensuring major changes are introduced
A driver attempts to diagnose engine problems on unforeseen bugs and gradually enough to avoid creating new
his own in the middle of traffic. user-error risks.
vulnerabilities.

Experiential Interruptions

Autonomous vehicles pave the way for experiential
transportation. Your car can double as a theater, a cocktail
bar, or a library… for an additional fee. When the car is
no longer the product you buy, service is essential and
content is still king. If you’re unwilling to pay a premi-
um, you might be stuck watching a movie you’ve already
seen while also being inundated with deliberate product
placement. Pop-up ads block those scenic mixed reality
views during long car trips. Augmented OLED windows
malfunction and lag, displaying blue screens and spinning
wheels, giving new meaning to the term “car crash.” Get-
ting from one place to another is a trade-off between the
journey and the destination.

Exponential Growth in Autonomous Driving Data

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES using a virtual environment based on the
Approximately 200,000 Tesla vehicles Unity gaming engine. Rockstar Games
The quality of any algo- now navigate the roads using autopilot. received attention for stopping organi-
rithm has a significant With the increase in autonomous miles zations such as OpenAI from using its
“Grand Theft Auto” game as a platform
correlation with the logged, emerging patterns in the data
will help solve some of the problematic for training self-driving cars.
size of the dataset on edge cases in the algorithms (those that Synthesized data can help us get to the
which it is trained. The occur rarely or only under extreme con- edge cases faster, meaning more prog-
size of these datasets in ditions). The current algorithms have ress per mile analyzed, and making the
at times struggled to identify stationary algorithms safer overall. To put edge
autonomous driving is
objects, in the worst cases resulting cases in context, think of how many
reaching an inflection in catastrophic crashes. Shortcuts to miles one would have to drive to come
point as the number of training the AI systems are beginning across a pedestrian on stilts crossing
autonomous car users to mature. Helm.ai uses a deep teaching paths with a cyclist doing a wheelie in a
methodology that programs the system rainstorm? It sounds highly unlikely, but
regularly generating to understand base rules like object per- if the algorithm has never been exposed
real-world driving data manence, effectively giving the AI a head to such a situation, it might make a fatal
approaches critical start on learning. Massachusetts Institute error—which is why it’s important to
of Technology created a digital laborato- expose the algorithm to as many of these
mass. Beyond this influx ry to translate real-world situations into atypical cases as possible.
of real, raw data, meth- simulated scenarios using deepfake tech-
Training data is critical for building AIs like those used in autonomous vehicles. ods of generating syn- nology—allowing AI to train quickly and
at lower cost in a virtual environment,
thetic training data are but on data based on real-life circum-
reaching maturity. stances. Volvo trains AI on edge cases

Exponential Growth in Autonomous Driving Data continued
The company with the most training • Helm.ai

data should best be able to reduce its ve- • Oxbotica
hicles’ autonomous-driving error rates,
potentially cultivating a powerful brand • Nvidia
association with safety—think Volvo in
the ’80s or Subaru in the 2010s. With
the stigma of autonomous driving as an
under-regulated and potentially untrust-
worthy technology, perceived safety
performance may be the most important
factor for winning market share. For
carmakers, however, autonomous algo-
rithms aren’t necessarily a “winner take
all” market, because the developer with
the best system could resell or license its
software to other players.
As cars with autonomous features become popular, they generate data to help systems improve.

Autonomous Vehicle Testing Gets Regulated

Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada Creating learner’s permits or driver’s • Focus Group on AI for Autonomous
New rules will govern (along with some federal initiatives) lead licenses for AI-enabled autos will help and Assisted Driving
how autonomous in testing autonomous vehicles on public socialize the technology and establish ex- • U.S. National Highway Traffic
roads, with other states and countries pectations for experiences and protocols
vehicles can be tested. Safety Administration
catching up. Since 2012, at least 41 states on the road. For autonomous vehicles
Current legislation and Washington, D.C., have consid- to become safer, they must be tested in • National Conference of State
Legislators
around autonomous ered legislation related to autonomous conditions similar to those where they
vehicles. More than 50 self-driving will be deployed. Because of this dynam-
cars is in flux and companies are testing their technolo- ic, autonomous car services will likely
has yet to be set at a gies in California. ITU, the specialized arrive soonest in areas with existing
national level. United Nations agency for telecom and testing sites. The fragmented regulatory
information communications technol- environment, which will remain until
ogy, created a focus group to develop federal laws and guidelines are imposed,
performance standards for autonomous will result in conditional and situational
vehicles, including what an “AI driving rules, such as how Cadillac centrally des-
test” should entail. ignates sections of road compatible with
Super Cruise, its AI-enabled hands-free
driving assistance product.
Who will give AI its driving license?

Analog Fallbacks
Many car locks today depend on elec- There is hardly a more apt application • Cadillac
As more systems and tricity and become inoperable when the of the phrase “They don’t make ’em like • Corvette
infrastructure transition car battery dies. Tesla’s Model 3 has a they used to” than the auto industry. As
• Tesla
to digital formats, and mechanical system for the front doors, vehicles become more automated, manu-
but not the rear doors. Such vulnerabili- facturers must design for the appropriate • Range Rover
more purely digital sys-
ties can cause life-threatening scenarios: level of redundancy and for a population
tems are built, fewer of A failed car battery locked the doors of of people with limited understanding of
these systems will rely an Ohio man’s Cadillac and trapped him how the underlying systems work.
on analog or manual in the car for 13 hours, and, in another
case, a Texas man and his dog died in his
fail-safes. When these Corvette as a result of the same problem.
unprotected digital sys- Both vehicles had manual door release
tems fail, it will lead to mechanisms as a fallback for when
electrics failed, but neither person could
increasingly catastroph- find the release. To make matters more
How do you open a door that is frozen shut—and
ic outcomes. Electrical tragic, one of the victims had the vehicle
has no handles? systems are historical- owner’s manual yet was still unable to
ly more sensitive and activate the manual release mechanism.
These problems will be exacerbated
fragile than their analog when cars no longer come with phys-
counterparts, meaning ical user manuals or when firmware
failures are likely to be- updates change a car so drastically that
the original physical manual is no longer
come harder to assess, accurate.
repair, and recover from.
When Humans Attack Cars

Every year, more than 200,000 people die in a car acci-
dent. That’s about one person every three minutes in the
United States. Millions more are hospitalized because of
car-related injuries. And now there’s a twist: armed with
rocks, guns, pocket knives, and in one instance, a PVC
pipe, humans have started attacking cars.
The reason: big tech companies must adjust their
self-driving technology to real-world communities that
aren’t interested in being test subjects. Google’s Waymo
division, which has been testing vans near Phoenix since
2017, has had several run-ins with locals: they’ve slashed
car tires, pelted vehicles with rocks, and tried to run vans
off the road. Residents have safety concerns, especially in
the wake of a 2018 collision involving a pedestrian and
a self-driving Uber car just a few miles away in nearby
Tempe. But the real issue here isn’t safety. It’s that we
all struggle to cope with technological change, especially
when it disrupts the foundations of everyday life.

Urban Planning for Multi-Use Roads

Strava Metro is using the data from Intelligent load balancing and redis- • Strava Metro
As the role of car own- runners and cyclists to help urban plan- tribution of transportation real estate • Open Streets Project
ership shifts in society, ners design safer streets. The National could significantly increase the through-
Association of City Transportation put of existing transportation infrastruc- • National Association of City
public roads will trans- Transportation Officials
Officials released evolving guidelines ture. Increased quality, quantity, and
form. Streets and side- for street space design and pandemic diversity of traffic data will enable cities
walks are increasingly recovery strategies. They include vari- to redistribute how much attention
ous street use cases, including protests, and space is designated for car travel
becoming mixed-use voting, outdoor dining, and markets. and storage versus use by pedestrians,
spaces as a greater Slow streets are designed to limit traffic cyclists, and others.
variety of transporta- in certain residential areas.
tion methods become

popular and prevalent.
The pandemic-relat-
ed need for outdoor
dining and commerce
has accelerated the
Road design will accommodate more uses than redistribution of street
ever before.
space away from car
travel and parking.

China’s Open Road

Although we don’t see their vehicles in China is creating a new mobility ecosys- • Apollo Committee
China’s ambition to the West, there are more than 70 Chi- tem that includes electric vehicles, apps, • Baidu
dominate the global nese car manufacturers, and together communications systems, AI, and data—
they produce more cars than any oth- and it intends to ship its products to the • Volvo
car industry is buoyed
er country. For decades, the Chinese West. Baidu’s Apollo is one example of an • Ford
by its manufacturing government has been paving the way open-source self-driving system that could • Geely Group
sector, work in AI, and for joint ventures: Many cars in Beijing become an industry standard. Its partners
• Dongfeng Motor
with foreign badges were actually made include Daimler, BMW, and Ford.
vast troves of driving by domestic auto manufacturers. An • Tencent
data. electric vehicle boom is underway, and
• Great Wall Motors
China’s newest cars are full of high-tech
gadgetry including wrap-around digital
China’s Byton hopes to rival the world’s most dashboards and seats that swivel so pas-
prestigious auto manufacturers.
sengers can enjoy a meal together when
in self-driving mode.

New Cityscape Designs

Saudi Arabia is developing futuristic With climate change accelerating, these • Bjarke Ingels Group
Autonomous vehicles, new megacities. A linear city called The projects are an approach to redesigning • Arquitectonica
collaborative drones Line will stretch from the Red Sea to the how we live. We may have little choice, as
mountains of northwest Saudi Arabia sea levels rise and extreme weather events • Rockwell Group
and robots, and AI are
and consolidate urban centers into a force us indoors or even underground. • NEOM CEO Nadhmi Al-Nasr
leading to changes 106-mile-long stretch of land. The entire
in how cities are city will be arranged along a multilev-
el spine, which will include local and
The Line is a linear city proposed in Saudi Arabia.
designed. high-speed transit, a service layer, and a
pedestrian layer. The goal is to preserve
the area’s wilderness, encourage mobility,
and test renewable energies at scale. The
Qiddiya giga-project is a $500 billion bet
on a megacity contained within a 130
square mile site outside of Riyadh, the
KSA’s capital. If these projects are suc-
cessful, they will have advanced technol-
ogies and urban ecosystems that rival any
major city.

Decarbonizing Flight
Last year, ZeroAvia successfully com- Aviation contributes 3% of the world’s • ZeroAvia
Hydrogen fuel pleted an 8 minute flight that resulted in total carbon emissions. When flights • Airbus
cells could power no carbon emissions. Using a retrofitted stopped during the COVID-19 pan-
Piper M-Class plane, the test proved that demic, there were noticeable changes
commercial aviation.
hydrogen—which carries little or no car- to air pollution. As air travel returns to
bon footprint—could someday become pre-pandemic levels over the next few
an alternative to fossil fuels. Airbus has years, there will be increased calls to
three hydrogen power programs in the reduce emissions. Hydrogen-powered
works and could start testing commer- planes, while still under development,
cial flights as early as 2025. could be a viable alternative.
Airbus revealed its zero-emissions plane, one of

several hydrogen-powered aircraft projects it has
underway.

Supersonic Flights
After years of successful transatlantic Faster travel between locations could • Aerion Supersonic
Several companies are flights, the age of supersonic jet travel stimulate economic development and • Boom Supersonic
developing technology came to an end in October 2003, when bring cultures closer together. Reduced
British Airways permanently grounded sonic boom will enable flights to take off
to bring back
the Concorde. Driven in part by the over land, overcoming a significant limit-
commercial supersonic enthusiasm and excitement over faster ing factor in the routes that the original
jet travel. autonomous travel, supersonic jets are Concorde could fly. But fuel efficiency
being tested once again. Japan Airlines and safety concerns may slow progress in
invested $10 million in Colorado-based getting supersonic air travel to market in
Boom Supersonic to develop supersonic the short term.
jets, which will travel at 2.2 times the
speed of sound—or about as twice as
fast as a standard aircraft. Japan Airlines
has already preordered 20 such jets, and
Boom unveiled its prototype in October
2020 for test flights in 2021. Aerion
Supersonic in Nevada is also developing
a carbon-neutral supersonic jet that is
expected to take off in 2023.
A sonic boom caused by an F-18 Super Hornet.

The End of Traffic Pilot Shortages Forgotten Infrastructure
Mid-future optimistic scenario Mid-future neutral scenario Mid-future pessimistic scenario

In the next 10 years, companies master vertical New aircraft are developed but continue to Flying taxis become the method of travel of
takeoff and landing craft that operate similarly to require highly trained and skilled operators like choice for the hyper affluent, who only travel
helicopters but they are affordable, easy to pilot helicopter pilots. Technological advances for in the air. Air transit becomes a lightning rod
and easy to maintain and as cost-efficient as car more economical operation, opening up specific for the global wealth divide, as less is invested
transportation. Commuters increasingly adopt commutes and routes, mostly along existing in land-based transit infrastructure and public
short distance aerial travel as their regular form helicopter routes that will handle increased transportation.
of transportation. This redistributes traffic on capacity due to lower cost. Island hopping and
roadways, which are now dominated only by taking the chopper to the airport will be available
heavy and long-distance transport, while light to the affluent instead of just the hyper-wealthy.
transit takes to the air. The adoption of regulations and infrastructure
modeled after helicopter transport incorporate
more significant pilot assistance systems reflect-
ing autonomous vehicle regulations.

Autonomous Ships
IBM and ProMare, a marine research or- Large autonomous ships could transform • ProMare
Efforts are underway ganization, launched a fully autonomous shipping by increasing efficiency, reduc- • Penta
to create autonomous, ship called Mayflower, from Plymouth, ing costs, and reducing human error.
England, last year. It features an AI Electric ships that don’t require human • IBM
AI-powered ships, and
captain that gives the vessel the ability to crews could offer cost savings through- • Marine AI
the legal framework assess its environment and make deci- out the shipping supply chain. They • Yara International
is emerging for them sions at sea with no human captain or could solve labor shortages, increase
• Wärtsilä
onboard crew. Volvo’s maritime sub- safety, and reduce environmental harm.
to operate safely sidiary Penta launched an autonomous The International Maritime Organiza-
and officially in boat docking system—boat captains push tion is performing a scoping exercise
international waters. a button and it docks without human before drafting the legal frameworks
assistance. Norwegian chemical com- for maritime autonomous surface ship
pany Yara International built The Yara travel. In the near to midterm, the goal
Birkeland, an electric container ship sup- is to design AI systems that will support
ported by radar, lidar, machine learning, human-crewed ships.
computer vision, an automatic mooring
system, and a network for cameras.
The company planned to transition the
vessel from human-crewed operation to
remote-crewed operation in 2019, and
Volvo Penta launched an autonomous boat then to autonomous operation in 2020.
docking system. The pandemic slowed the timeline, and
humans are staying on board for now—
which helps with regulatory and insur-
ance complications, too.
China’s Foreign Infrastructure Investment

China’s Belt and Road Initiative began Critics worry that the debt created by • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
The governments and companies that lead in 2013 and has primarily focused on the project will cause an imbalance of • New Development Bank
international infrastructure projects have investment in infrastructure, education, leverage in geopolitical relations. Many
construction, rail, highway, auto, and of the countries involved are developing • National Development and
powerful influence on setting regional, global, Reform Commission
the electrical grid. The effort is enor- nations that urgently need the infra-
and geopolitical standards. China’s multibillion- mous—roughly 12 times larger than structure, but may have limited ability
dollar Belt and Road Initiative is the source of the U.S.’s Marshall Plan, which helped to handle the debt sustainably. While
Europe rebuild after World War II. China is offering a moratorium on debt
massive investment in infrastructure development, In 2017, the Belt and Road Initiative servicing during 2020, the debts will
including roads, rail, sea, and air travel. The vast involved an estimated 68 countries, 65% eventually come due and require poten-
extent of the investment and partnerships with of the world’s population, and 40% of tially long-term global partnerships to
global gross domestic product. address.
Asian, East African, European, and developing
countries has helped make China the preferred
financier and producer of transport and power
infrastructure on the global geopolitical scene.

Application
Information technology, supply chains, Network upgrades, decreased latency, R&D leaders are playing a larger role Trends in networks, transportation,
transportation, and network connec- automated transportation, and new in identifying businesses of the future, logistics, robotics, and transportation
tivity are becoming more complex, delivery options unlock a wide swath of with some asked to present their ideas are complex and involve a tech stack
which will require strategists to be new products, businesses, and opportu- to their executive leadership and that many organizations don’t yet
more agile in near-term planning. nities to grow. The next several years will boards. Going forward, R&D leaders have. Chief risk officers should consid-
Savvy corporate strategists will con- be dynamic, with continual improve- will need to consider a broader range er developing a strategy to optimize
sider how this complexity could lead to ments across many sectors. Innovation of trends. For example, in what ways risk to deliver stronger business mod-
a broad range of possibilities. Rather teams must be prepared to monitor will 5G lead to new business growth in els—rather than using governance to
than waiting for further developments, development and anticipate change. agriculture and finance? An organiza- slow the adoption of emerging tech-
organizations should continually tion’s ability to think beyond existing nologies and standards.
identify signals to inform strategic de- business units will deliver stronger
cisions, monitor outcomes, and deter- outcomes as the trends described in
mine where they can play—and win. this volume mature.


should begin by asking these questions:
1 2 3
Are we actively What parts of our Are we adequately
?
developing and testing business make us planning for the longer
new ideas related to the vulnerable to disruption term?
trends explored in this in networks, logistics, or
volume? What assumptions must
transportation? When
was the last time we
In what ways could our strategy to succeed?
audited the systems that
logistics, supply chain, or How will we make
keep those parts of our
communications systems needed changes?
business safe?
be improved?

Selected Sources
J. W. Romanishin, K. Gilpin and D. Rus, https://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/
“M-blocks: Momentum-driven, mag- robotics/military-robots/navy-drone-
netic modular robots,” 2013 IEEE/RSJ boat-swarm-practices-harbor-defense
International Conference on Intelligent
Robots and Systems, Tokyo, Japan, https://www.c4isrnet.com/un-
2013, pp. 4288-4295, doi: 10.1109/ manned/2020/11/24/turkish-firm-
IROS.2013.6696971. develops-ai-powered-software-for-
drone-swarms/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/
order-from-chaos/2020/10/01/seven- https://www.faa.gov/uas/advanced_
years-into-chinas-belt-and-road/ operations/package_delivery_drone/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/09/ https://www.ncsl.org/research/
china-belt-and-road-initiative-mess- transportation/autonomous-vehi-
not-master-plan/ cles-self-driving-vehicles-enacted-leg-
islation.aspx
https://www.armytimes.com/news/
your-army/2020/11/09/the-army- https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-
looks-at-mass-recharging-for-drone- think/transportation/self-driving/driv-
swarms/ ing-tests-coming-for-autonomous-cars
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war- https //openstreetsproject.org/map-of-

zone/37868/the-army-wants-to- open-streets-initiatives/
launch-drone-swarms-behind-enemy-
lines-from-high-altitude-balloons https://nacto.org/publication/
streets-for-pandemic-response-recov-
https://www.af.mil/Portals/1/ ery/introduction/rethinking-streets-in-
documents/isr/Small_UAS_Flight_ a-time-of-physical-distance/
Plan_2016_to_2036.pdf

Volume 11 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Energy
Report Climate
Strategic trends that will influence business, Space
in the coming year.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Energy, Climate and Space
436 Summary 462 Bioengineered Trees

438 Energy 463 Environmental, Social, and
438 Million-Mile Batteries Corporate Governance (ESG)
439 Fusion Power 464 Strategic Sustainability Plans
440 Clean Hydrogen 464 Supply Chain Sustainability
441 Grid Management 464 Shipping Industry ESGs
442 Charging Stations 466 Space and Off-Planet Exploration
443 Renewable Energy 467 Scenario: New World Spores
444 Ultra-High-Voltage Direct 468 Space Mining
Current and Macro Grids 468 Space Junk
445 Zero-Carbon Natural Gas 469 Space Sustainability Initiatives
446 Floating Nuclear Power 469 Space Imaging
Plants (FNPPs) 469 Satellite Megaconstellations
448 Climate 470 Self-Steering Satellites
448 The Anthropocene Epoch 470 Space-Based Internet
449 Reversing Environmental Rules 470 The Space Economy
and Regulations
470 Space Tourism
450 Green Stimulus Plans
470 Galactic Ride Sharing
451 Large-Scale Direct Air Capture
470 Galactic Refueling Stations
452 Unpredictable Sea Level Rise
471 Off-Planet Living
453 Extreme Weather Events
471 Mercury Rain
455 Human Migration Patterns Shift
472 Space Forces
456 Plastic Rain
472 China’s Space Ambitions
457 Plummeting Biodiversity
472 Ultra-Long Space Missions
458 Rewilding
473 Application
459 Seasteading
474 Key Questions
460 Green Tech
475 Sources
461 Bacterial Storage for CO2
461 CO2-Based Industrial Materials
461 Plastic-Eating Enzymes
461 Smart Ocean Filters
461 Ocean Fertilization
461 Sandcastling Glaciers
462 Reflecting Sunlight
462 Solar Radiation Management
462 Cloud Injections
Energy
+ With the new Biden Administra- + This is an important year for
tion, the U.S. will reverse course space missions, including tens of
on recent energy, climate, and thousands of satellites deployed
sustainability policy. in megaconstellations promising
to beam internet connectivity
+ The lasting economic conse- from space.
Climate
quences of climate change are
dire, which is why so many start- + A new space economy is form-
ups are promising to mitigate ing, and tensions are arising as
climate change. China aims to become a major
driver of space-related com-
+ Several countries will debut merce and trade.
green stimulus packages, unlock-
& Space
ing new business opportunities.
+ Innovative energy research is well

underway, ranging from smart
grids powered by artificial intelli-
gence to million-mile batteries.
Summary
Energy
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Energy, Climate and Space Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
Million-Mile Batteries
Tesla launched its “million mile” project Batteries, essential to our everyday lives, • Contemporary Amperex Technology
As more devices and last year to power a vehicle’s entire life will become more important as climate • Tesla
vehicles rely on bat- cycle on a single battery. Contempo- change worsens. Better, longer-lasting
• General Motors
tery power, the race to rary Amperex Technology will make batteries not only improve energy usage
ultra-capacity batteries that last 16 years and efficiency, they allow us to communi- • Panasonic
produce a lighter, more cate, connect, and continue daily activities
for Audi, Porsche, and BMW. General • LG Chem
efficient battery is more Motors is working on a similar battery. during energy disruptions. Researchers at
• Aurora
competitive than ever. Researchers are working to improve Daimler, Fisker, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, • BYD
New technology prom- battery design, composition, and storage:
Stanford University, and Tokyo Institute
ises to extend the life The U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific
of Technology are working on replacing
Northwest National Laboratory discov-
Million-mile batteries could revolutionize the
of car batteries, which ered how to make a more efficient and
flammable liquids in batteries with solid
could reduce the degra- materials. The result may be safer, cheaper
electric vehicle market. stronger single-crystal, nickel-rich cath-
batteries with greater storage and greater
dation process and al- ode. The University of Münster in Ger-
drive range for electric vehicles. If suc-
many found a way for single-use zinc-air
low batteries to outlive cessful, the tech could drop electric vehicle
batteries to be recharged hundreds of
the vehicles they power. times. And Spanish startup Graphenano
charging times from several hours to 10
minutes. By 2027, the lithium-ion bat-
Ultimately the industry built a battery out of graphene that tery market could hit $129.3 billion, and
strives to produce a charges a car in eight minutes. Japan’s the electric vehicle battery market could
Ritsumeikan University and Panaso-
battery that could pow- expand to $133.46 billion.
nic are trying to squeeze the last bits
er up to a million miles of untapped energy out of lithium-ion
of drive time before batteries, particularly because they don’t
needing replacement. recycle well.
Fusion Power
Researchers and government agencies Fusion research has primarily been • DOE’s Fusion Energy Sciences program
Fusion power plants from 35 countries are collaborating to funded through basic science initiatives and Federal Fusion Energy Sciences
could produce car- build the largest tokamak, the central from government agencies (such as the Advisory Committee
bon-free electricity by component of a magnetic fusion project DOE’s Office of Science.) But fusion • ITER
that will prove the feasibility of fusion research has gained support from outsid-
harnessing the same as a large-scale and carbon-free source ers, and efforts to use a practical, applied
• SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory
nuclear process that of energy. Construction on the ITER approach are growing. This could unlock
powers the sun. In the (“the way” in Latin) is already happening a new value chain: facilities, advanced
in southern France. The project, fea- lasers, and computer systems that need to
next decade, fusion turing the first device that can maintain be built.
researchers will discuss fusion over long periods of time, could
Inside a nuclear fusion reactor. and prototype ideas to lay the groundwork for the commercial
production of unlimited, fusion-based
design a fusion reactor. electricity. The U.S. National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
introduced a road map to fusion power
in late 2020, identifying technological
gaps and near-term facilities to fill them.
It calls for the U.S. Department of Energy
to build a prototype in the 2040s to pro-
duce our electricity from fusion rather
than fossil fuels.

Clean Hydrogen
There are different types of hydrogen. Right now, clean hydrogen is expensive, • Ørsted
Hydrogen is abundant, For example, hydrogen produced indus- and traditional energy sources are simply • Vattenfall
ubiquitous, and a ver- trially from natural gas results in high more affordable, especially when used at
• European Renewable Energy Directive
satile energy carrier. It carbon emissions; it’s known as “gray” scale. But government investments could
hydrogen. But a different process, which spur a new clean hydrogen economy. • NextEra Energy
can be produced from captures and stores emissions, results in a Some estimates show that green hy- • Siemens Gamesa
a wide range of sourc- cleaner “blue” hydrogen. “Green” hydro- drogen prices could fall from today’s $6
• Everfuel
es and used in many gen is generated by renewable energy per kilo to less than $1 by 2050, making
sources and never results in carbon it competitive with the current prices
ways across the energy emissions. Because hydrogen burns at of natural gas. Green hydrogen could
sector. Clean hydrogen very high temperatures, it is an effective someday be shipped around the world
Ørsted launched a pilot for green hydrogen.
could play an import- replacement for fossil fuels in industrial to places with less access to cheap re-
applications. newable energy sources. Japan is already
ant role in transitioning working on the supply chain for a clean
France invests heavily in producing
much of the world away green hydrogen. Out of a 2020 stimulus hydrogen market: It has pilot projects
from carbon-based en- package worth 100 billion euros, the underway with Saudi Arabia, Brunei, and
country dedicated 7.2 billion euros to a Australia.
ergy sources.
project that will create green hydrogen
by 2030. The French government has set
a target of 10% green hydrogen use in in-
dustry for 2022 and 20% to 40% for 2027.

Grid Management
China rationed electricity in December Grid failures cost millions and put lives • AutoGrid
In many countries, gov- as unexpected cold temperatures and in danger. Utility company equipment • Bloom Energy
ernment agencies and rapid post-COVID-19 economic recov- isn’t being repaired or modernized fast
enough, and maintenance will become • Lition
private companies ery created a surge in energy demands.
More than 67 million people had reached more difficult amid climate change and • Origami Energy
distribute energy to the electricity grid’s maximum load in new power demands. The U.S. hasn’t • Stem
citizens via an electric the province of Hunan, and local media engaged in long-term planning and has
reported a 3 million to 4 million kilowatt no comprehensive national electricity
grid that’s made up of policy. Remote work may help alleviate
deficit of energy during winter’s peak
a sprawling network of period. While the cold challenges China, strain—U.S. power consumption dropped
generators and con- 4% in the first half of 2020—but it won’t
increasing temperatures strain Califor-
offset the impact of climate change.
Smart technologies will help balance the nectors. Increased nia. Rolling blackouts in 2020 and early
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
power grid. 2021 impacted hundreds of thousands
demands for power, of homes and businesses. Coupled with
outlined steps to preempt problems,
including incentivizing renewables, arti-
combined with a failure wildfires that strain the grid and create
ficial intelligence-based predictions about
to maintain or expand solar energy shortages, California faces
usage, expanding wide-area transmission
a growing energy crisis. Climate change planning, and conserving energy. Auto-
these grids, will pose has introduced drier, hotter weather Grid and Origami Energy make soft-
new challenges over the to some unexpected parts of the world, ware to help optimize grids. XENDEE
next two decades. while in other areas ice and subzero tem- and Worley created cloud software for
peratures have suddenly become more microgrids. Energy storage will continue
common. Our power networks were to evolve: Northwestern University and
never designed with these fast-changing German scientists are developing “singlet
environmental realities in mind. fission” technology to generate more
441 electricity from solar cells. © 2021 Future Today Institute
Charging Stations
Governments, utilities, and third-party Auto manufacturers will invest an esti- • Blink Charging
In the coming years, an companies are installing networks of mated $225 billion to electrify their fleets • ChargePoint
unprecedented number charging stations, a process that involves in the next few years, including the new
lots of red tape and requires dealing Audi e-Tron; Ford Mustang Mach-E; • Electrify America
of charging stations for
with local utilities and real estate own- Mercedes EQS; BMW i3, i4, iX3, and • Envision Solar
electric vehicles will ers. The U.S. had more than 78,000 iNext; Volvo Polestar 2; and General • Wawa
come online, driving de- charging outlets and 25,000 charging Motors’ Hummer.
stations for plug-in electric vehicles in The expansion of charging stations will
mand for a new kind of March 2020. California, Oklahoma, New have a chilling effect on independent and
car and disrupting the York, and Colorado also plan to invest corporate gasoline station chains and
supply chain and retail in networks of electric charging stations. the local communities they support. The
Infamous gas-guzzler Hummer will return in Electrify America will install charging demand for oil took a significant hit in
2022 as an electric vehicle. business of traditional stations at 100 Walmart stores in 34 2020, and car sales dropped. But the shift
gasoline. states. ChargePoint will open 2.5 million toward electric vehicles accelerated. The
charging stalls by 2025, up from 53,000. pandemic may be a turning point for the
EVgo created a modular fast-charging electric car industry.
station that can be installed in a matter
of days. Google Maps, ChargePoint,
and PlugShare use smartphone apps to
show the prices, locations, and types of
charging ports available, and let people
rate and review them.

Renewable Energy
Renewables are “the fastest growing Renewables will have greater importance • Energy Vault
Renewable energy is source of electricity generation,” ac- in the coming decade. On his first day • First Solar
collected from sources cording to the U.S. Energy Information in office, President Biden signed execu-
• NextEra Energy
that can be replenished Administration. In 2019, 400 global tive orders signaling a commitment to
corporations committed to climate renewables. Interest in cleantech is grow- • SolarEdge Technologies
on a reasonable times- protection and sustainability goals, while ing in China, Singapore, the Middle East, • Sunrun
cale. Renewable sourc- 63 promised to convert 100% of their and Norway amid a global shift toward
es include wind, tides, energy use to renewables. The amount energy efficiency and lower carbon emis-
of clean, renewable energy bought by sions. The International Energy Agency
geothermal heat, and some of the world’s largest companies projects that those regions and countries
sunlight. In many mar- tripled between 2018 and 2020, and will account for about 40% of energy dis-
kets around the world, more than 100 global cities report they tributed through the global power grid
get 70% of their energy from renewables. by 2040. A new value chain is emerging,
renewable energy is In September 2020, Chinese President buoyed by policy, and representing new
already cheaper than Xi Jinping announced that his country is business opportunities—and headaches
nonrenewable energy. committed to becoming carbon neutral for traditional petroleum companies.
by 2060. The Biden administration is
poised to roll out an ambitious $2 trillion
Geothermal energy offers an alternative to plan to reach net-zero domestic carbon
petroleum.
emissions by 2050. Even oil-rich Saudi
Arabia is working on a detailed, long-
term plan to diversify its economy and
move away from oil.

Ultra-High-Voltage Direct Current and Macro Grids

China invested $88 billion to build A national direct-current macro grid • ABB
In the near future, we macro grids and a new kind of transmis- could drastically lower emissions in an • TransWest Express
will transport clean en- sion system—ultra-high-voltage direct affordable way without compromising Transmission Project
ergy from production current (UHVDC). The nation turned access to electricity. It could also redis-
• Macro Grid Initiative
on its first 800,000-volt line, covering tribute power to areas experiencing ener-
sites to destinations in the east-west expanse of the country and gy shortages and blackouts. The ability to • State Grid Corp. of China
need using a new kind carrying enough energy to power half generate and transport energy in times of
of power grid now being of Spain. China plans to transport clean crisis could become a critical political and
energy all around the world, and its Belt economic advantage and could impact
tested in China. and Road Initiative could facilitate that where businesses operate.
effort. Fifty years from now, we may rely
more on China than on OPEC countries
(Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Libya,
Nigeria, Qatar, Algeria, Angola, and
Ecuador) for our energy needs.
Macro grids could be the future of distributed,

renewable energy.

Zero-Carbon Natural Gas

Natural gas plants of the near future may Natural gas produces roughly 32% of • Net Power
Zero-carbon natural capture all of their emissions at zero cost U.S. electricity and 20% worldwide. • Exelon Generation
gas is produced at using a technology called carbon capture That translates to a significant amount
• McDermott International
plants that capture all and storage, or CSS. While the tech has of carbon emissions. With new CSS
been around for decades, it has not been technology, carbon-free energy could be • 8 Rivers Capital
carbon dioxide byprod- deployed at scale. In 2019, startup Net produced from fossil fuels much more
uct, neutralizing the Power successfully built a prototype cheaply than via nuclear power plants,
carbon output of the plant that ran a full cycle without releas- and new plants could be booted up as
ing troublesome emissions into the air. needed without having to wait for power
process. The company hopes to scale up to a full- sources that are in long-term develop-
size plant by 2021. New tax credits of up ment (such as fusion). The popularity
to $50 for each metric ton of emissions of net-zero natural gas will be driven by
captured and stored by a power plant or demand for all that captured and stored
factory will likely help accelerate wider CO2. Industrial manufacturers that work
adoption of this technology. Net Power with carbon-based materials are prime
is a collaboration between Exelon Gen- buyers.
Net Power’s demonstration plant in La Porte, Texas.
eration, energy construction company
McDermott International, technology
developer 8 Rivers Capital, and Oxy Low
Carbon Ventures.

Floating Nuclear Power Plants (FNPPs)

In an attempt to increase nuclear prolif- Nuclear power generation is risky, but • Akademik Lomonosov
Floating nuclear pow- eration, Russia launched an FNPP called it presents an advantage: You can fix the • RusHydro
er plants (FNPPs) are the Akademik Lomonosov in 2020. It cost of electricity for the duration of a
• Rosatom
a new kind of energy is loaded with two nuclear reactors and project, since this type of energy is not
began producing energy last year. Now, subject to market risks and volatility.
plant that can float and Russia is planning a new fleet of FNPPs
move with currents, that have even greater power capacity
while also withstanding and could operate for up to 10 years
without requiring maintenance of any
harsh environmental nuclear reactors. The plants’ crews would
conditions. be stationed onshore. Rather than FNPP
barges being stationed off the coast of cit-
ies with high power demand, they would
deploy on a project basis. For example,
Russia hopes to construct an FNPP to
generate power for one of the world’s
The Akademik Lomonosov is a floating nuclear power
largest copper and gold deposits, the
plant that holds two nuclear reactors and is sta-
tioned in the Chukotka Autonomous area on Russia’s Baimsky Mining and Processing Plant.
Arctic coast.
Photo courtesy of Lev Fedoseyev/TASS.

Climate
The Anthropocene Epoch

A new epoch follows a cataclysmic event. The United Nations Development Pro- • Anthropocene Working Group
We are in a new geolog- (For example, mass extinction of the gramme has noted that the Anthropocene • International Union of
ical epoch defined by dinosaurs followed an asteroid colliding is the era “in which the dominant risk to Geological Sciences
the permanent impact with Earth.) Such events significantly our survival is ourselves.” Recognizing
• The Nature Conservancy
and permanently alter the underlying that humans have made a permanent, vis-
that humans have had sedimentary and rock layers beneath the ible mark on the earth is the first step in • Union of Concerned Scientists
on Earth: The “Anthro- surface of the planet. In 2018, an inter- studying the implications for our planet’s • U.S. Geological Survey
pocene” (anthro for national, independent team of scientists, future. Every aspect of life on Earth could
called the Anthropocene Working be affected. We will need collective and
“man,” and cene for Group, found enough evidence to collaborative action from governments
“new”). Our previous support the official declaration of a new and industry if we hope to counteract the
epoch, the “Holocene,” geological epoch. Despite early debate, planetary damage already done.
concrete, publicly available research now
began 11,700 years ago corroborates the designation. Humans
just after the last ice have left a permanent mark on the planet
age. By defining our with chemicals and industrial waste,
Humans have left a permanent mark on the planet.
pavement, plastic, nuclear fallout, every-
current stage of history day garbage, pesticide runoff.
and the change it rep-
resents, we can set a
different—and hopeful-
ly improved—trajectory
for life on Earth.
Reversing Environmental Rules and Regulations

The Trump administration rolled back Scientists warn that as temperatures • C40 Cities
While citizens demand more than 100 environmental rules and sea levels rise faster than originally • Climate Justice Alliance
action on climate and regulations during its single term, projected, climate change will drastically
• Extinction Rebellion
change, some world according to U.S. Environmental Pro- change life as we know it, disrupting our
tection Agency research. In June 2020, global food supply, threatening human • Indigenous Environmental Network
governments are now Trump repealed the 50-year-old National health worldwide, and limiting our abili- • Union of Concerned Scientists
relaxing or eliminating Environmental Policy Act, which re- ty to work and travel. Before COVID-19,
rules and regulations quires federal agencies to consider the the World Health Organization identi-
environmental effects of proposed proj- fied climate change as the greatest threat
designed to mitigate ects before approvals. This effectively cut to global health in the 21st century,
human-caused environ- the timeline for reviews and eliminated noting that environmental degradation
mental damage. requirements meant to limit environ- might allow a spectrum of diseases to
mental harm. The Trump administration flourish. Many international initiatives
also replaced the Obama-era Clean Pow- aim to combat and mitigate the effects of
er Plan, which set strict limits on carbon climate change, but each country ulti-
emissions from coal- and gas-fired power mately designs and implements its own
President Joe Biden signed an executive order
plants, and instead allowed states to set regulations. As calls for climate action
on the international Paris climate agreement just
hours after his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. their own rules. It cut the reach of the grow, the public and private sectors may
Clean Water Act, removing federal pro- increasingly conflict with one another—
tections for millions of miles of streams but perhaps also align.
and about half of America’s wetlands. On
his first day in office, President Biden re-
joined the Paris Climate Accord, undoing
the Trump administration’s exit.
Green Stimulus Plans

KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE EMERGING PLAYERS
Green stimulus plans have been intro- At the moment, job creation for green • League of Conservation Voters
Green stimulus plans duced in China and Europe. In China, R&D investments is low relative to other • ClearView Energy Partners
are government mea- both electric vehicle charging and mass industries. However, public funding in
• U.S. Federal Electricity Regulatory
sures to stimulate the transit were identified as new infrastruc- the U.S., Europe, and China for clean
Commission
ture that will receive priority stimulus energy research and infrastructure de-
economy while pro- investments. China has also published a velopment will lead to new job creation • U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
moting clean energy, number of energy-efficient infrastruc- and produce high long-term economic (D-N.Y.)
responding to climate ture goals—though it has rolled back returns—while mitigating climate and • U.S. Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.)
regulations on coal power capacity. The environmental challenges. Carbon
change, encouraging European Union’s executive branch capture and removal, industrial decar-
• International Energy Agency
biodiversity, and pro- developed a stimulus plan of 750 billion bonization, water reuse, desalination, • Data for Progress
tecting the environment. euros, with 100 billion euros allocated to and energy storage are just a few areas • The Democracy Collaborative’s Climate
efforts at reaching zero carbon emissions. that can be targeted with green stimulus and Energy Program
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) speaks as
Meanwhile the U.S. Senate passed a $2.2 plans, which mean new opportunities for
she and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) unveil the Green trillion stimulus package with no ear- businesses.
New Deal resolution. marks for green technology or initiatives.
But that’s going to change: With uni-
fied control of Congress and the White
House, Democrats plan to pass a version
of the Green New Deal that was previ-
ously introduced.

Large-Scale Direct Air Capture

Climeworks, Global Thermostat, and In early 2021, the concentration of CO2 • Climeworks
Direct air capture tech- Carbon Engineering are developing in the atmosphere was the highest ever • Global Thermostat
nology extracts carbon direct air capture systems to vacuum CO2 recorded in human history. CO2 leads to
• Carbon Engineering
dioxide directly from molecules from the air. Aiming to spur global warming, and that has a cascading
the reusable CO2 marketplace, CarbonX effect on business and society. Increasing • Microsoft
ambient air rather than offered a $20 million prize to companies attention to direct air capture through • Elon Musk
capturing it at sites that develop innovative ways to use cap- big investments will galvanize movement
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
where it is created, like tured CO2. In 2020, Microsoft announced in the near future. As startups prove
Change
a new $1 billion fund for “carbon reduc- their technology, new and bigger mar-
factories and certain tion, capture, and removal technologies” kets will be built, which means a greater • Southern Green Gas
power plants. The CO2 to help offset the company’s historic value for captured gas—and ultimately • Commonwealth Scientific and
can be permanently emissions. In January 2021, Tesla CEO another tool to help mitigate the effects Industrial Research Organisation
Elon Musk announced a $100 million of climate change. • Occidental Petroleum
stored in deep geolog- prize for carbon capture technology.
• Bill Gates
The world’s largest Direct Air Capture (DAC) and
sequestration facility.
ical formations or used
to produce new indus-
trial products, such as
fuels and chemicals.

Unpredictable Sea Level Rise

In 2020, Eastern Siberia recorded the It is difficult to overstate how significant- • British-American International
We’re getting better at hottest temperatures ever in the Arctic ly rising sea levels will impact human and Thwaites Glacier Collaboration
understanding how ice Circle, which melted sea ice and delayed animal migration, the global supply of • ClimaCell
by two months the usual Arctic freeze.
sheets and sea levels food, and our ability to move around. It
• Opti
Meanwhile, historic floods ruined could reshape countries and trigger mass-
change over time. In the millions of acres of farmland, and coast- scale human migration. Scientists at the • Piccard.ai
years ahead, there will al flooding wrought havoc in Alabama Grantham Institute—Climate Change and • Union of Concerned Scientists
and Mississippi. In 2019, 100 scientists Environment at Imperial College Lon-
be more focus on trying began studying the Thwaites Glacier and don warn that the sea could rise higher
to measure, interpret, its melt-off that threatens coastal areas, than the current 2100 estimates if climate
and intervene in the including Manhattan.
change proceeds unchallenged.
New scientific models and artificial
rate of change. intelligence may help us understand and
To protect against flooding, the San
Francisco International Airport will build
predict sea levels and human migration
A mother and child wade through dangerous a 10-mile-long wall, and the U.S. Army
patterns: The University of Southern
waters in Jakarta, Indonesia. Corps of Engineers may create a 6-mile-
California predicts mass migration to At-
Image courtesy of the World Meteorological long barrier in New York City. Fast-ris-
Organization/Flickr.
lanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, Las Ve-
gas, and other landlocked urban centers ing sea levels along the Gulf and East
as well as rural Midwestern areas. The coasts of the U.S. may lead to $1 trillion
federal Global Change Research Program in mitigation, repair, and relocation costs.
predicts heavier rainfall, 8-foot sea level Insurers, city planners, businesses with
increases in the next century, earlier global supply chains, and any business
spring snowmelt, reduced snowpack, and that relies on or provides logistics should
chronic, long-term drought. be monitoring this trend carefully.

Extreme Weather Events

The past five years on Earth have been The repercussions have been devastat-
An extreme weath- the hottest on record, with average tem- ing. The 2019–2020 Australian bushfires
er event falls outside peratures having risen 1.8 degrees Fahr- killed millions of animals, destroyed
enheit in the past 115 years, the warmest more than 12 million acres, and cost
the statistical norms
period in modern civilization. The $110 billion in damages. Last year, 22
of typical fluctuations Oeschger Centre for Climate Change U.S. weather and climate disasters caused
in weather patterns. Research at Switzerland’s University of $1 billion in losses each, and California’s
Bern analyzed global temperatures over fires alone scorched 4.1 million acres,
Such events became 2,000 years and found that, despite short up from the previous state record of
a more frequent and periods of cooler temperatures, the Earth 1.9 million in 2018. India, meanwhile,
pronounced worldwide is warming faster than at any other time has experienced 310 climate events in
in the past two millennia. the past 15 years, after only 250 climate
phenomenon in 2017, The result: extreme weather. A 2019 events from 1970 to 2005.
and we have been ex- Bulletin of the American Meteorolog-
periencing them since. ical Society report confirmed the link
between the earth’s rising temperature
and extreme weather events, based
on the views of 120 scientists from 10
countries and 17 peer-reviewed analyses
with historical observations and model
simulations.
Extreme weather events will continue to plague communities in the future.
Image courtesy of @bwc/Flickr.

Extreme Weather Events continued
DISRUPTIVE IMPACT Large natural disasters can slow regional EMERGING PLAYERS
Extreme weather is the new normal. economic growth for decades, hinder • Chooch Intelligence Technologies
NOAA’s National Centers for Envi- corporate and industrial productivity,
• DroneSeed
ronmental Information also found that and lead to post-traumatic stress among
tropical storms move more slowly than survivors. Extreme weather can shift in- • Jupiter
they did 40 years ago, lingering longer fectious disease patterns and compromise • Ladera Tech
and causing more damage. The Unit- food security, safe drinking water supply,
• Severe Weather Information Centre
ed Nations’ scientific panel on climate and clean air. It can drive up construc-
change issued a dire report warning that tion costs and cause flight cancellations
environmental disruption may lead to and will challenge insurers to build new
a dystopian future of food shortages, models to better estimate risk and reper-
wildfires, extreme winters, spread of cussions. New R&D initiatives, emerging
diseases, a mass die-off of coral reefs, and green technologies, climate-focused in-
more—as soon as 2040. That’s less than vestment strategies, and global coalitions
20 years from now. could help mitigate extreme weather.
Businesses can do right by their investors
and the planet by curtailing contributions
to climate change.
A historic snowstorm hit Texas in 2021.

Human Migration Patterns Shift

Last year, climate disasters uprooted 9.8 Throughout the world, climate change • Chatterbox
There’s no official des- million people and became the leading is becoming a national security issue as • Funzi
ignation for “climate cause of internal displacement around monsoons, droughts, and scorching heat
the world. Climate change will force 63 drive millions of people away from their • Jobs4Refugees
change refugees,” but
million South Asians and 1.7 million homes in search of more hospitable envi- • Mygrants
there may be one soon, Mexicans from their homes by 2050, ronments. A recent World Bank report • Startup Refugees
as climate change forc- while another 1.5 million Ethopians will projected climate change could result in
have to search for new sources of food 143 million “climate migrants” by 2050,
es more people from and water. Expect a wave of migration as people escape crop failure, water scar-
their homes and com- from Africa, the Indian subcontinent, city, and rising seawater. Most of them
munities, undermining and from island nations into Europe and will flee developing countries in sub-Sa-
the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. joined Ban- haran Africa, Latin America, and South
the economic stability gladesh, Italy, Ethiopia, Hungary, Greece, Asia. The World Bank offered a glimmer
of those regions. Europe and Lebanon in implementing historic of hope: The future may not be as bleak
limits on refugee resettlement. Pushbacks if we work now to cut greenhouse gas
could receive 1 million of asylum seekers at the border, curfews emissions drastically and lay plans to
climate refugees annu- in refugee camps, and anti-migrant rhet- increase education, training, and jobs for
ally by 2100, forcing un- oric have risen alongside displacement. migrants. Intergovernmental organiza-
tions need to adopt an official designa-
These images show a portion of the James River
in eastern South Dakota. The 2015 image depicts
imaginable changes to tion—as well as necessary protocols—for
the river in a typical spring, while the 2020 im-
age shows its banks overflowing; this and other
cities and infrastructure. near-future waves of climate refugees.
sections of the river had been at flood level since
spring 2019.
Image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory.

Plastic Rain
In 2020, the journal Science published As emerging markets grow, water bottles • U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Plastic rain is the new alarming new research: After a 14 month will follow. And as the middle class Administration
acid rain. Microplastics study of rainwater, scientists found more grows in developing countries, the use • European Chemicals Agency
than 1,000 metric tons of microplastic
are floating through of plastics in packaging, food, and drinks
• Parverio
particles in the water—or about the is expected to double our current use in
our waterways, being equivalent of 120 million plastic water 10 years. Plastic particles are just about • Nanomembrane Research Group
carried into seawater bottles. That’s a stunning amount of plas- everywhere: our deep-sea ecosystems,
tic given the small and remote area the our freshwater reservoirs, our commer-
and evaporating into researchers covered in the Western U.S. cial farms, and our wildlife. Microplastics
clouds, which then Microplastics present unique challenges, eventually degrade into nanoplastics,
disperse and redis- because they can’t be easily captured in a
making them impossible to detect but no
big net, and we can’t apply current water
tribute the plastics in less environmentally damaging. Worse,
filtration technology at an oceanic scale.
scientists don’t yet know the long-term
rain—even in protected effects of breathing in or swallowing
Microplastics found in rainwater, collected by
researchers in the Western U.S.
natural habitats like the nanoplastics—though microbes and
Image courtesy of Utah State University. French Pyrenees. viruses are certainly capable of hitching
a ride on tiny plastic particles. A new
crop of startups hopes to tackle the
dual problems of particle identification
and smaller-scale filtration. Parverio is
developing a rapid testing and filtration
system to pull microplastics out of local
water supplies.

Plummeting Biodiversity
The human race accounts for less than The recent collapse of insect popula- • International Union for Conservation
We’re living through a 0.01% of the biomass on Earth. We phys- tions in Puerto Rico and Germany had of Nature and Natural Resources’
strange contradiction: ically make up less than one ten-thou- a cascading effect: Pollinators disap- Red List
sandth of all life, in other words—and peared, plants failed to germinate and
It may seem as if we’re • Yale University Office of Sustainability
yet we’ve already wiped out 83% of the grow, and wildlife lost their habitats and
in close contact with an planet’s animal species. The U.N.’s Inter- food sources. Last year, a tiny, incon- • The Convention on Biological Diversity
ever-increasing number governmental Science-Policy Platform spicuous purple burrowing crab bred at
on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services high levels in places like coastal Massa-
of wild animals and nov- published an apocalyptic dataset last year: chusetts, feasting on native plants that
el pathogens, but in re- 1 million animal and plant species are at kept marshland in place, and eventually
ality our planet’s biodi- risk of destruction. Not 1 million rabbits, leading to more sediment in the local
or 1 million daffodil plants, but 1 million water streams, increased flooding during
versity has plummeted. species. Annihilated. A mass extinc- harsh storms, a loss of recreational space
tion event that is so incomprehensible, for water sports, and the loss of com-
Tiny, inconspicuous purple burrowing crabs feast no metaphor or analogy suffices. The mercial fishing grounds. In fact, the crabs
on cordgrass and threaten local ecosystems. dramatic decline in species populations have done so much damage already, you
Photo courtesy of Mark Bertness. is related to habitat loss and degradation, can see it from space. The crabs are now
including deforestation, driven by how considered a “keystone species,” meaning
we produce food. they have a disproportionate impact on
the natural environment, and the other
species in the ecosystem now depend on
them to maintain the current order.

Rewilding
The restoration of apex predators, key- Environmental conservation will require • The Rewilding Institute
Rewilding is an integra- stone species (so-called ecosystem engi- a suite of new technologies to active- • Rewilding Europe
tive approach to envi- neers), and beneficial plant life in native ly reverse human-made damage and
habitats can help revive natural communi- facilitate coexistence between nature and • Yale School of the Environment
ronmental conservation ties, even after decades of drastic decline. the industrialized world. If an integrative • Zoological Society of London’s
and rehabilitation that Jaguars have been reintroduced to Argen- approach becomes the standard for cor- Instant Wild platform
tina’s wetlands, lynx to the Scottish High-
focuses on the reintro- lands. Fish and sea life were even brought
porate sustainability initiatives, rewilding • Peace Parks Foundation
will lead to market growth that benefits
duction of keystone spe- back to a dead coral reef using underwater landscape architects, agriculture exec- • U.S. National Park Service Office
cies and the creation of speakers broadcasting the sounds of a of International Affairs
utives, automotive engineers and real
thriving reef. The restoration process is
The construction of nondisruptive corridors or
safe corridors by which estate agents, among others.
“ecoducts,” like this wildlife crossing in Poland, is
facilitated by technological innovation,
a key component of rewilding. species can freely mi- including the use of biomimicry devices to
non-invasively influence animal behavior,
grate. With climate and the replacement of radio receivers
change increasingly dis- with GPS trackers to enable superior
monitoring systems. Another key aspect
rupting wildlife habitats of rewilding is to preserve corridors that
and newly accessible provide safe passage for nature to spread
from one region to another. These efforts
technologies offering in- include the rehabilitation of natural corri-
novative rewilding tech- dors such as the Côa Valley in Portugal, as
niques, the decades-old well as the construction of “ecoducts” like
the crossings at Canada’s Banff National
approach is taking on Park and the crab bridges and tunnels of
renewed significance. Christmas Island.
Seasteading
The pandemic has accelerated what had Whether or not the utopian dream of • Seasteading Institute
Seasteading is a col- been a very small anarcho-capitalist new governments and innovative legal • Ocean Builders
onization process movement to build new communities systems pans out, the architectural re-
that operate outside any traditional search being conducted now could prove • Oceanix
wherein permanent
government. The threats of govern- fortuitous: With sea levels rising, future
human dwellings and ment-enforced lockdowns, mandatory communities may need to be built at sea,
settlements are con- contact tracing, and digital surveillance incorporating renewable energy sources,
have been cited as motivating factors indoor vertical farms, and underwater
structed at sea, outside for seasteading groups. In 2008, Google communications systems.
the reaches of most engineer Patri Friedman (grandson of
governments. Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton
Friedman) founded the Seasteading Insti-
tute with funding from venture capitalist
Peter Thiel. The goal: to set up a perma-
An artist’s rendering of Oceanix City, an adapt- nent community that could experiment
able, sustainable solution for human life at sea. with novel political and legal systems.
Image by Oceanix/Bjarke Ingels Group. Danish architect Bjarke Ingels is working
on Oceanix City, an interlocking system
of hexagonal islands powered by renew-
able energy. In Panama, Ocean Builders
is laying the foundations for a factory
that will house the largest 3D printer in
Central America, and produce the mate-
rials necessary for floating homes.

Green Tech
Siemens will build a wind farm in Climate change and new regulatory • CO2 Solutions
To counteract extreme Ethiopia that will power more than efforts could force the world to look • Blue Planet
weather and climate 400,000 households. In the U.S., a clean for new, sustainable sources of energy.
• Efforce
change, researchers power agreement could spur $1.2 billion Green tech is still a young market, but
in wind and solar energy projects in plenty of new technologies and scientific • Fuergy
are looking to green Nebraska. Pandemic and blackout fears breakthroughs have generated significant • Facedrive
technologies to reduce catalyzed a $50 billion market for rooftop buzz. Investments are growing as more
• Lilium
our short- and long- solar panels. Amazon will buy a fleet of governments pledge funding for green
electric vans to start delivering packages tech solutions that double as economic • Power Ledger
term impacts on the to customers in 2021, with 100,000 oper- recovery efforts. • OceanX
environment. ating by 2030. More green tech projects
are on the horizon, as sustainability be-
comes a post-COVID-19 recovery strat-
egy. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak
launched Efforce, a blockchain-based
energy platform to fund energy-efficien-
Concept of a future green living space by
cy projects. Its token offering hit a mar-
Vincent Callebaut. ket cap of $950 million in 13 minutes.
DroneSeed is tackling rapid reforestation
with heavy-lift drone swarms that spread
patented seeds in wildfire-ravaged areas.

Green Tech Trends
Bacterial Storage for CO2 Plastic-Eating Enzymes miles. An estimated 5 trillion pieces of floating garbage cans with pumps and
Scientists are building tubular bioreac- In 2019, researchers at the University plastic float in the ocean, an amount so filtration centers set up in harbors, ma-
large that environmentalists called on rinas, and other busy areas. The project
The greatest danger to tors, filling them with green algae and of Portsmouth accidentally discovered
the United Nations to declare the gar- retrieves plastic that otherwise could have
letting them eat away at the carbon a plastic-eating enzyme that could help
our future is apathy. captured from the environment. Quebec break down larger pieces of plastic and bage patch its own country dubbed “The trapped animals and caused problems if
City-based CO2 Solutions genetically aid in recycling efforts. French biotech Trash Isles.” A recent report by the British ingested.
— Jane Goodall, primatologist
engineered a strain of E. coli bacteria to company Carbios will produce a new gen- government warned that the amount of
produce special enzymes capable of eating eration of plastics for bottles, packaging plastic in the ocean could triple by 2050. Ocean Fertilization
carbon dioxide and converting it into a and film that include enzymes that trigger The problem prompted some innova-
Oceanic iron fertilization involves dump-
harmless bicarbonate. biodegradation after use. Recycling tive approaches to cleaning up the trash.
ing enormous amounts of iron sulfate
Technologies, based in the U.K., hopes In the fall of 2018, the Dutch nonprofit
into large swaths of the ocean. Theoret-
to deconstruct traditionally unrecyclable Ocean Cleanup launched an ambitious
CO2-Based Industrial Materials ically, it would stimulate the growth of
plastics into “plaxx,” or virgin plastic, wax effort to clean up half of the garbage patch
Carbon dioxide captured from factories phytoplankton, the tiny sea life that ab-
and oils. within five years by using a fleet of 60 au-
can be repurposed as building materials. sorbs carbon dioxide, releases oxygen, and
tonomous floating “screens,” or nets that
Startup Blue Planet developed a way to gets gobbled up by other creatures. This is
collect debris as small as a centimeter in
convert carbon dioxide into a synthetic Smart Ocean Filters key, because every year the ocean absorbs
diameter. Algorithms pinpoint where to
limestone that can be used as an industrial The notorious pile of trash floating in the about a quarter of global carbon dioxide
deploy the screens, and real-time teleme-
coating or mixed in with concrete. The Pacific Ocean is bigger than we thought. emissions—which in turn changes water
try monitors the condition, performance,
company’s bicarbonate rocks were includ- It is actually two distinct collections of chemistry and harms marine ecosystems.
and trajectory of each one, before boats
ed in the reconstruction of San Francisco garbage, collectively also known as the eventually retrieve them. The system re-
International Airport. Pacific Trash Vortex. In 2018, research- lies on natural ocean currents for energy; Sandcastling Glaciers
ers found that it is 16 times larger than the rest of the electronics are powered by Sand is stronger than we once thought.
original estimates, at least three times the solar energy. Another effort, The Seabin A conservation project from Princeton
size of France, or a total of 617,763 square Project, cleans up oil and trash using University seeks to build massive piles of

Green Tech Trends
sand or other materials on the seafloor to or extremely fine particles, into the upper develop the technique, as well as another from ice crystals that form at high altitude floor. One approach is to convert atmo-
serve as walls around glaciers—like scaf- atmosphere, where they can reflect sun- using sea salt particles, if the U.S. and oth- and trap heat in the atmosphere. Other spheric CO2 into carbon nanofibers that
folding to prevent them from collapsing. light. Once it is in place, the balloon can er nations fail to reduce global greenhouse efforts to reflect sunlight include paint- can be used for consumer and industrial
Warm seawater far beneath the surface of release enough material to create a per- gas emissions. ing everything from building roofs to products, including wind turbine blades
the ocean can destabilize the foundations turbed air mass roughly 1 kilometer long mountainsides white, and laying reflective or airplanes. Another option comes from
of glaciers, causing pieces to break off and and 100 meters in diameter; the same bal- Cloud Injections sheets in deserts. chemists at George Washington Univer-
melt. Shoring up their foundations could loon can then measure resulting changes sity who are experimenting with what
Inspired by maritime observations, this
keep glaciers submerged in the icy upper in the perturbed air mass, including Bioengineered Trees they dub “diamonds from the sky.” The
geoengineering technique would try to
layers of water, and—theoretically—pre- changes in aerosol density, atmospheric scientists bathe carbon dioxide in molten
re-create the long clouds left by ocean CO2 is the undisputed culprit when it
vent them from melting. It’s not a perfect chemistry, and light scattering. carbonates at 750 degrees Celsius, then
freighters passing through open water. comes to climate change. But what if we
method for all glaciers, but it can help. introduce atmospheric air and an electri-
An aerosol of sea salt particles and sea- could just suck it out of the air? Trees do
Solar Radiation Management cal current on nickel and steel electrodes
water vapor would be injected into these that naturally, but after years of deforesta-
Reflecting Sunlight The carbon dioxide dissolves, and carbon
This controversial technique, which clouds, which would expand and shade tion, we simply do not have enough of
nanofibers form on the steel electrode.
Some scientists are working on build- has not yet been tried at scale, involves our oceans. The director of the chemical them to make a sizable impact. Scientists
ing enormous, mirrored parasols in the injecting tiny sulfur dioxide particles into sciences division of NOAA’s Earth System at Columbia University are developing
stratosphere, which would reflect sun- the sky that would reflect sunlight back Research Laboratories received a $4 mil- plastic trees that passively soak up carbon
light back into space and theoretically into space. The idea comes from volca- lion grant from Congress and permission dioxide from the air and store it on a
cool the Earth’s atmosphere over time. noes; scientists point to an eruption 200 to study sea salt vapors. Scientists at the honeycomb-shaped “leaf” made of sodium
The Keutsch Research Group at Harvard years ago that caused an unusual cold University of Washington are working carbonate, similar to baking soda. So far
University is hoping to launch the first snap, triggering unseasonal summertime on increasing the whiteness and bright- these fake trees prove to be a thousand
ever aerosol injection experiment known frosts. The top climate scientist at the ness of the clouds by spraying seawater times more efficient at soaking up CO2
as the Stratospheric Controlled Perturba- U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric into them. Swiss scientists, meanwhile, than real trees. The next challenge will
tion Experiment. The scientists will use Administration received $4 million from are developing ways to eliminate cirrus be to purify the carbon dioxide or bury
a high-altitude balloon to inject aerosols, Congress—as well as permission—to clouds—those thin, wispy clouds made it safely beneath the ground or the ocean

Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG)

Last year, PepsiCo adopted the United A study last year by BNP Paribas showed • Kansas regenerative
Companies of all sizes Nations Business Ambition for 1.5 De- that sustainability has become a major agriculture program
are leading with sus- grees C pledge, and Allbirds and Kick- focus across many industries; since the • Climate Neutral
starter applied for certification under the onset of the pandemic, a quarter of
tainability as part of • Dassault Systèmes
Climate Neutral certification program respondents became more focused on
their core values. Envi- by completing a carbon footprinting sustainability measures within their • Autodesk
ronmental, social, and exercise and buying offsets to counteract organizations. Many companies see
their environmental impacts. General sustainability as a value-add for all of
corporate governance Mills launched regenerative agriculture their key stakeholders. Other companies
(ESG) refers to core fac- programs with 24 wheat farmers in can follow suit by developing long-term
tors in evaluating the Kansas and 45 oat farmers across North strategy, vision, and R&D plans to create
Dakota, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. new business opportunities, which create
sustainability and soci- value for shareholders while also helping
etal impact of a compa- the planet. Corporate sustainability is a
growing concern among consumers and
ny or an investment. investors who hope to see both economic
value and good-faith efforts to mitigate
business’s role in climate change.
A biowall covers a skyscraper in Sydney.

Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) Trends
Strategic Sustainability Plans Supply Chain Sustainability Shipping Industry ESGs Liner, have been dubbed Tesla ships.
Unilever’s Sustainable Living Plan sets Many elements of a supply chain that It’s no mystery that the shipping industry Eventually, the hope is that they will
operate autonomously. Hybrid boats are
There comes a time targets for sourcing, supply chain, and can hinder sustainability, including is a huge contributor to climate change
making waves, too. Powered in part by
production throughout its operations. A energy use, labor conditions, cold-chain due to its carbon dioxide emissions and
when humanity is decade ago, Unilever announced it would carbon emissions, and contamination of unquenchable thirst for fuel. Shell Oil solar energy, they are lighter weight and
less noisy while boasting greater passen-
called to shift to a new double its business while cutting its en- local environments. In recent years, the employs a novel approach to fuel efficien-
ger capacity and lower emissions.
vironmental impact in half. Allergan, the number of companies reporting their cy: air bubbles. The oil company installed
level of consciousness maker of Botox, developed ways to con- environmental, social, and governance a new system on the hull of a ship de-
... that time is now. serve water and energy in its operations (ESG) policies for suppliers has increased veloped by London-based Silverstream
and supply chain. Patagonia sets the pace dramatically. Refinitiv, a financial and risk Technologies. Steel boxes welded to the
— Wangari Maathai, for every industry: It encourages repairing solutions company, noted that more than ship’s hull and air compressors create a
environmental activist rather than replacing its products, it uses half of the companies in its directory now layer of microbubbles between the vessel
natural rubbers and upcycled plastic bot- report ESG policies. and the water. The improved hydro-
tles, and it strives to minimize packaging dynamics of this design helped the ship
waste. Two years ago, Patagonia took its move faster and more easily through the
sustainability efforts a step further, saying water and resulted in 5% to 12% fuel sav-
it would produce custom-logo vests and ings. Meanwhile, the market for hybrid
jackets only for companies that can prove and electric boats is growing. The world’s
they align with Patagonia’s corporate first electric barges now hum between
values. ports in Amsterdam and Belgium. The
vessels, made by Dutch company Port

Space
Space and Off-Planet Exploration

Last year was a triumphant one for Some estimates say the space industry • SpaceX
Human ambition, our the space industry. SpaceX successfully is worth $330 billion and could double • Blue Origin
quest for knowledge, launched a mission to the Internation- by 2026. From leisure travel to asteroid
al Space Station—the first such launch mining to telecom, myriad industries and • Moon Express
and our curiosity have
from American soil in a decade. Three businesses will spring from and benefit • Astrocast
always driven our rush missions to Mars took flight. And brand- from space exploration. • Maxar Technologies
to explore space, and new moon samples were returned to
• Kyoto University
Earth. This year, a number of important
2021 promises to be missions will further shape our off-planet • Sumitomo Forestry
another important year aspirations. NASA’s Mars 2020 mission
• Astroscale
for space initiatives. successfully reached its destination, a
point on the planet called the Jezero • Advanced Quantum
Some of the missions Crater. The Perseverance rover will look Scientific Technology
are crewed by humans, for microbial life forms and test new • BEI Precision
technologies required to sustain human
others feature robots, life. The Hubble Space Telescope’s suc-
• SpaceFab
and a handful will bring cessor, the James Webb Space Telescope, • Data Collective
earthly agriculture into is scheduled to launch in the fall. SpaceX • Boeing HorizonX Ventures
will begin further testing its next-gener-
Kyoto University and Sumitomo Forestry are
developing satellites out of wood.
space. ation vehicle Starship, which is built for
• Planet Labs
deep space exploration. • Rocket Lab

New World Spores
Far-future neutral scenario

Humanity looks beyond Earth and Mars when people be-
gin to think of their future in terms of civilizations rather
than years. But new human colonies in the cosmos cannot
simply be built—they must be born. To prepare for future
colonies, we send highly resilient spores to far-off planets
that are deemed able to support life. The spores then have
millennia to develop and evolve into basic life forms that
could serve as valuable resources for human settlers later
on. Sending these microscopic advance teams might be
the kind of foresight that gives the explorers of tomorrow
a headstart on our next planetary home.

Space and Off-Planet Exploration Trends
Space Mining India, Russia, Germany and France, have 5-foot hole in a spacecraft. That collision,
Vast amounts of precious rare-earth not signed on. Whether or not celestial then, would throw off its own share of
elements and metals—which are used mining becomes a viable business practice shrapnel, which would join the rushing
in much of today’s technology hard- in the very near term, the idea of com- river of junk already circling the planet.
ware—exist on the moon and in meteors mercial space exploration puts pressure In space, collisions beget collisions in a
and asteroids. Mining those minerals in on governments to create clear interna- chain reaction known as the Kessler syn-
outer space could be a lucrative venture tional agreements and frameworks for drome—a phenomenon that could even-
as well as a cunning geopolitical strat- governing space. tually make some of our available orbits
egy, because China currently controls unusable. It’s not just Americans doing
95% of rare-earth element production. Space Junk the dumping—China and Russia each
In 1979, several members of the United have dozens of decommissioned satellites
Space is our next dumping ground. As overhead—although the U.S. certainly
Nations put forward the Moon Treaty, a many as 170 million fragments of metal
framework to guide international space does it with style. Where all that junk
and astro debris orbit the Earth. That in- winds up isn’t something we can predict
exploration, which, among other things, cludes 20,000 pieces larger than a softball
prohibited mining in outer space. None accurately. We could be unintentionally
and 500,000 about the size of a marble, wreaking havoc on civilizations far away
of the world’s spacefaring nations rat- according to NASA. This debris will pose
ified the treaty. In 2020, NASA shared from Earth, catalyzing future interga-
a navigation hazard for many centuries to lactic wars. Or we might cause far less
the Artemis Accords, an international come as low-Earth orbit becomes more
agreement for civil space and moon ex- scintillating problems. Space junk could
cluttered. At least 200 objects roar back start to behave unpredictably, reflecting
ploration. While the agreement has nine into the atmosphere each year, including
The Earth’s moon is made up of many different materials, represented here by different colors. signatories, including some of the United sunlight in disruptive ways, altering our
pieces of solar panels, antennas, and frag- atmosphere, or even challenging our
States’ closest allies, it has also been criti- ments of metal. All of them pose dangers
cized for promoting commercial mining understanding of the universe and the
for future astronauts: One plum-sized laws of physics.
of celestial bodies. Notably, the other piece of gnarled space trash traveling
powerful space nations, including China, faster than a speeding bullet could rip a

Space Sustainability Initiatives black center surrounded by a massive every few weeks. By the end of this year,
Space junk is becoming a bigger problem ring of orange and yellow light. In early there could be a fleet of 12,000 overhead.
as more satellites are launched into the January, scientists in Maui used the new U.K.-based OneWeb is set to launch up
atmosphere. An innovative approach to Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope for the to 700. That’s just a small selection—it
reducing particulates is already underway first time and took the highest-resolution would take several pages to list every
at Kyoto University. Sumitomo Forestry, photos of the sun ever recorded. (The company and planned launch over the
part of Japan’s Sumitomo Group, is devel- surface looks like the cracked ground of next five years. These satellite constella-
oping microsatellite constellations with the Atacama desert—if it were oozing and tions comprise many small “microsats” or
individual units made out of wood. It’s on fire.) New techniques and equipment “cubesats,” which are capable of commu-
not the first time wood has been consid- for space imaging will advance the work nicating with each other and continue to
ered for such a job: NASA’s earlier Ranger of research scientists across many fields. work when one satellite in the network
program sent balsa wood structures to the goes down. Constellations are used for
moon. One benefit is that the wood won’t Satellite Megaconstellations a variety of purposes, including taking
block the electromagnetic waves that photos and beaming internet access back
Within a few years, there will be vast down to Earth. But with thousands of
satellites use to communicate. The project megaconstellations of tiny satellites
is set to launch in 2023. planned spacecraft launches—carrying
orbiting the Earth. In August 2020, the microsat and cubesat constellations, in
U.S. Federal Communications Commis- addition to heavier satellites, rockets,
Space Imaging sion approved Amazon’s latest satellite and spaceships with rovers and human
In 2019, scientists did what they thought megaconstellation, which included 3,236 cargo—astronomers are warning that our
The Artemis Accords are a set of international agreements for civil space and moon exploration that
was impossible: They captured an im- microsats built to provide high-speed in- view of the sky, and our ability to re-
include language around commercial mining of celestial bodies.
age of a black hole’s silhouette using the ternet—that’s more than double the total search the cosmos, is in jeopardy. Scien-
Event Horizon Telescope. A team of number of satellites currently in orbit. In tists have voiced concern that megacon-
international astronomers and computer early 2020, the Starlink constellation, a stellations of microsats and cubesats will
scientists spent a decade developing a new project from Elon Musk’s SpaceX, began not only obstruct their view, but that they
kind of technique that revealed a dark sending clusters of 60 satellites into orbit could also interfere with radio astronomy

equipment. Some commercial spacecraft Space-Based Internet to move beyond proof of concept into Galactic Ride Sharing rides on spacecraft, we anticipate new
manufacturers, including SpaceX, are Amazon, SpaceX, Google, and others testing. Some estimate the space economy New technologies have spawned a new “rocketsharing” business models—fol-
developing new coatings that would are developing satellite technology that will grow to more than $1 trillion in the trend in space transportation: galactic lowed by a potential wave of regulation.
minimize reflection and other sources of would beam internet services directly to next two decades. We anticipate aggres- ridesharing. In 2018, Spaceflight Indus-
interference. our devices, and in the process bypass sive investment into commercial space tries launched its first rideshare mission Galactic Refueling Stations
our internet service providers (ISPs). companies, especially in the areas of in- called SSO-A SmallSat Express aboard
surance, satellites, defense, and aerospace Some satellites require fuel, and it turns
Self-Steering Satellites OneWeb has plans to power what it calls a SpaceX Falcon 9. The company pur- out fuel is very heavy. After a satellite
“fiber-like internet” coverage in the Arc- technologies and materials (manufactur- chased all available payload space on the
Researchers at the U.S. Naval Research ing and mining). runs out, it’s no longer fully operational.
Laboratory are working on a concept tic. New space-based internet services will rocket to service customers who wanted For that reason, researchers have been
that could not only help steer satellites rely on a complex array of microsat con- to launch various items into space. These developing new refueling stations and
back down to Earth when they’re decom- stellations and ground stations. SpaceX Space Tourism types of launches often include microsats new techniques that would overcome
missioned but also clean up space clutter and Amazon are working on services to As of 2020, SpaceX became the only NA- and cubesats from multiple countries, but some liquid dynamics challenges. Last
in the process. The idea is to outfit new bring internet service to people in areas SA-certified company to send people into unusual items make it to space occasion- year, startup Orbit Fab successfully
satellites with thin “umbilical cords” about neglected by traditional wireless carriers orbit. While Elon Musk’s goal is Mars, ally, too. A satellite from the Los Angeles completed the first set of experiments to
a kilometer long. Running an electric and ISPs. shorter flights on Starship could begin in County Museum of Art sent up a 24 karat see if water could be transferred between
current through the cord would enable the next year or two (initially round trips gold jar with a bust of the first African two satellite test beds. Orbit Fab has been
a satellite to steer itself using its own The Space Economy to and from Earth). Space Adventures is American astronaut to reach space. working with satellite manufacturers on
electric field as well as the magnetic field offering private spaceflight to the Inter- Artist Trevor Paglen sent a self-inflating something called the Rapidly Attachable
New spacecraft, rockets, and other tech- sculpture that reflects sunlight and can
from Earth. Think of it as an invisible sail nologies are helping private commercial national Space Station (ISS) and eventu- Fuel Transfer Interface, or RAFTI, which
that could someday enable old satellites to ally the moon. Already, Space Adventures be viewed by the naked eye on earth. is a new kind of valve system that would
companies achieve liftoff—with plenty of Another craft, the Elysium Star 2 sent by
guide themselves home. eager investors footing the bill. Investors has ferried more than a half dozen paid allow satellites to be fueled on the ground
trips to the ISS via a partnership with Elysium Space, contained the cremated before launch and, someday, refueled in
including Morgan Stanley are eying a remains of people who wanted to become
new space gold rush, now that a critical Russia. In December 2021, two Space space. This would eventually allow more
Adventures tourists will ride aboard the shooting stars. As more researchers, satellites to stay in orbit and help reduce
mass of commercial space companies and artists, and everyday people want to hitch
their technologies have matured enough Soyuz spacecraft. the creation of new space junk.

Off-Planet Living Mercury Rain

NASA has said it wants to send humans New rocket propulsion systems for rocket
to Mars by 2030, and in 2016 it selected engines would use mercury as a fuel,
six private U.S. companies, including which could run the risk of spreading tox-
Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Bigelow ic chemicals through Earth’s atmosphere.
Aerospace, to develop prototypes for NASA experimented with mercury in the
deep space habitats. At the beginning of 1960s because it’s a low-cost, high-power
the year, Elon Musk talked about sending option for ion engines. Startup Apollo
1 million people to colonize Mars by the Fusion has discovered a new approach
year 2050 using three Starship launches a to using mercury—but there’s a catch.
day. SpaceX has taken steps to turn what Mercury is heavier than the xenon and
sounds like science fiction into reality— krypton powering other ion engines in
this year, the company will bring astro- use today. What customers might save
nauts to the ISS. However, astrophysicists on costs could pollute the atmosphere in
have been quick to point out difficult hur- potentially harmful ways. While the U.S.
dles to overcome in Mars-bound space government has tried to reduce terrestrial
travel, not the least of which is radiation. mercury emissions since the 1990s, the
As Columbia University astronomer rules do not specifically cover spacecraft
Caleb Scharf explained, “In the worst case hovering above us. The U.S. Federal
This artist’s concept depicts astronauts and human habitats on Mars. NASA’s Mars 2020 rover is carrying scenario (which may or may not be a real- Aviation Administration requires com-
a number of technologies that could make the planet safer and easier to explore for humans. istic extrapolation) there’s a chance you’d panies to disclose hazardous materials in
Image credit: NASA. end up dead or stupid on Mars. Or both.” flight, but its policy also doesn’t address
satellites. This is an area where, yet again,
technology has sped beyond the limits of
the law.

Space Forces China’s Space Ambitions explore further into space.” China doesn’t Stephen Hawking is building a spacecraft
The U.S. announced the launch of a China’s space program is well underway. just want to be seen as a powerful Asian weighing only a few grams that would be
nation—it wants to set the global pace propelled by a 100-billion-watt laser fired
new Space Force in 2019. Its purpose: to It’s well-capitalized, includes many space
for numerous geo-economic initiatives, at it from Earth. The craft would take 20 A geologist once said
secure satellite communication networks startups, and has the full support of the
that not only power our information eco- government. In 2021, China will start environmental causes, and societal devel- years to reach the Alpha Centauri solar to me, ‘We went to the
systems but also control navigation and building a new space station, and it’s opment. system, where Proxima b is located. It’s a
step toward building a new kind of space- moon six times. If you
positioning systems. The new service is planning to send astronauts to the moon
expected to employ up to 15,000 military by 2030. But the country’s main focus is Ultra-Long Space Missions craft big enough to transport humans had come to New York
personnel and should benefit from for- on the commercial space industry, as its deep into space on a journey that would
mer President Trump’s signing of a $738 private space business sets up shop man-
If climate change escalates and we are take a millennium to reach humanity’s state six times, would
unable to mitigate its effects, humanity new home.
billion defense bill. The U.S. isn’t the only ufacturing cubesat megaconstellations, is going to need a plan B. Some scientists you have thought that
country with a military space program. larger satellites, rockets, IT infrastruc-
Both Russia and China maintain their ture, communications networks, and all
think our next best option is a 1,000-year you investigated the
space mission to save future generations
own space forces. It’s unlikely that a the other hardware needed by the global from extinction. Their target is a planet whole world?
traditional war would be fought among business. While China is a little late to called Proxima Centauri b, an exoplan-
the stars. This space race is about securing the party compared to other world lead- et in a habitable zone of a star like our — Jeanette Epps, NASA astronaut
critical network and communications in- ers such as the U.S. and Russia, it’s catch- sun. This means that water might exist
frastructure from government-sponsored ing up quickly. Last year, China became in liquid form there and, theoretically,
cyberhacking. the first country to land a robotic mission could support human life. We don’t know
on the far side of the moon. It was a his- what the atmosphere is like or whether
toric accomplishment—and a clear sign of the planet’s surface is too hot or cold to
new leadership from China. President Xi sustain living organisms as we know
Jinping said, “The space dream is part of them. A program founded by science
the dream to make China stronger … the philanthropist Yuri Milner and the late
Chinese people will take bigger strides to

Application
Throughout every industry, environ- Our observation: Senior executives are R&D teams within most industries There are clear risks and dangers
mental, social, and corporate gov- prioritizing sustainability broadly across should help executives make decisions associated with climate change.
ernance (ESG) and corporate social their organizations, and there have about the long-term implications and Extreme weather events, flooding,
responsibility initiatives have taken been new calls to funnel sustainability impacts of ESG plans. Curbing emis- and the outbreak of disease can have
center stage. With the passage of concepts into product development. sions might help meet sustainability catastrophic downstream effects on
green stimulus plans there will be new But some organizations or business goals, for example, while causing a company’s ability to function. Those
incentives to measure energy usage, units see sustainability as a risk, an unintended complications elsewhere working in risk will need new models
sustainability criteria, and environmen- added expense, or a challenge to exist- in the business. For teams working to calculate the value of ESG and CSR
tal impacts. We anticipate new oppor- ing operations. This presents a unique in adjacent fields, this year is a good goals—and to determine the costs as-
tunities for companies that strategical- opportunity for innovation teams, which time to hit the white board, especially sociated with preserving older opera-
ly map the next two to five years with can resolve those fears with new work- as green stimulus plans unlock new tional practices. Chief risk officers can
ESG in mind. Conversely, companies flows, products, and services. sources of R&D funding and stimulate develop thought leadership and strat-
that wait could find themselves regu- outside investment. egy to solve energy and climate-re-
lated in new ways or facing financial lated challenges in a way that drives
penalties. First movers and fast fol- value back to the organization.
lowers could help shape the directions
of their industries, which would be a
long-term strategic advantage.

Every executive team should begin by asking these questions about the futures of energy use and
sustainability. And it’s never too early to imagine the future impacts of the new space economy
on your organization.
1 2 3
Is our company tracking What parts of our What assumptions must
?
disruptions related to business make us a hold true for our current
energy use? target for disruption? strategy to succeed?
These include proposed How could new business How will we make
or new regulations, models introduced needed changes?
rebates, and green by new entrants pose
stimulus plans (domestic a threat? And to
and international). stretch your foresight
capabilities, ask: How
could an emerging
space economy unlock
new opportunities in our
industry?
Selected Sources
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/
02/china-clean-energy-technology
-winning-sell/
https://corpgov.law.harvard.
edu/2020/11/18/the-esg-
innovation-disconnect-
evidence-from-green-patenting/
https://www.nasa.gov/specials/
artemis-accords/index.html

Volume 12 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Synthetic
Biology
Report Biotech
Strategic trends that will influence business, Agriculture
in the coming year.
Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Biotech and Agriculture
479 Summary 491 Super Pigs

482 Synthetic Biology and BioTech 491 Unregulated Pet Cloning
482 Synthetic Biology 491 De-Extincting Animals
483 CRISPR 492 Microbe-Engineering as a Service
484 mRNA Vaccines 492 Microbiome Extinction
485 Scenario: Perpetual Puppies 492 Building a Comprehensive
486 Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism Human Cell Atlas
(SNP) Profiling 492 The Post-Natural Age
486 Organoids 494 Agriculture
486 Assembloids 494 AgTech
486 Organoids for COVID-19 Research 495 Precision Agriculture
487 Super-Fast Molecule Discovery 495 Deep Learning for Food Recognition
487 DNA Storage 495 Agricultural Clouds
487 Computational Biology 495 Vertical Farming Grows Up
Advancements 496 Indoor Plant Factories
487 Engineered Mosquitoes 496 Big Ag Data
487 Genetically Modified Cephalopods 496 CRISPR Crops
488 Designer Cells 496 Cellular Agriculture
488 Molecular Robotics 497 Hybrid Animal-Plant Meats
488 Cloning and Synthesizing Viruses 497 Insect Agriculture and Bug Proteins
488 DIY Biohacking Projects 497 Intelligent Packaging
488 DIY Vaccines 497 Artificial Trees
489 Cheaper Genome Sequencing 497 Off-Planet Terraforming
489 Gattaca Baby Tests 498 Scenario: Emailing Apples to Space
489 Artificial Human Genomes 500 Application
490 Genetic Research’s Bias Problem 501 Key Questions
490 Creating Synthetic Wombs 502 Sources
490 Gene Vandalism
490 Prime Editing
490 Synthetic Age Reversal
490 Superbugs
490 Building Full Chromosomes
490 A Shortage of Genome Storage
491 China’s Genetically Edited Babies
Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Synthetic
+ We have opened the door to the + You can now sequence your
post-natural age. This decade, complete genome for $299—less
synthetic biologists are focusing than the price of a TV.
on intentional design, improving
organisms, and constructing + Scientists created the first ge-
new materials from life’s building netically modified squid using
Biology,
blocks. CRISPR.
+ Right now, in our guts and in + Lab-grown, miniature human

the environment, we are all brains and lungs are being used
committing mass murder of to research the lasting effects of
microorganisms. SARS-CoV-2.
Biotech &
+ Researchers are developing a + This year, millions of genetically
new technique that might some- engineered mosquitoes will be
day enable people to upgrade released in the Florida Keys.
their children before birth.
+ Researchers are developing
+ Most Americans would sign over a way to store an exabyte of
rights to their DNA data for $99. data—roughly a million tera-
Agriculture
byte-sized hard drives—in a blob
+ By 2025, we may be out of data of DNA.
storage space for human ge-
nomes. + Indoor vertical farms deliver
10 to 20 times the total yield of
+ Less than 2% of people who have
conventional farms with far less
had their genomes sequenced
Summary
waste, thanks to brighter, cheap-
are from Africa—which means
an enormous number of people er LED light bulbs, cloud-based
miss out on the benefits of genet- artificial intelligence systems,
ic research. and more available agricultural
sensors.
+ Researchers are using neural net-
works to develop artificial human + The bug protein market could top
genomes. $1 billion by 2023.

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
What I cannot build,

I cannot understand.
— Richard Feynman, theoretical physicist

Synthetic Biology
& Biotech
Synthetic Biology,
Synthetic Biology
Researchers are developing standardized Imagine a future where you no longer • Twist Bioscience
Synthetic biology is a biological parts, redesigning proteins, take medication—instead, your cells are
• SynBioBeta
relatively new interdis- developing new microbes, and produc- simply reprogrammed to fight off what-
ing enzymes and other products—even ever ails you. Or you bite into a thick, • JCVI
ciplinary field of sci- juicy tomahawk steak that’s grilled to
designing and building unique genomes. • Synthego
ence that combines en- In January 2008, the J. Craig Venter perfection—and vegan-friendly, because
it’s made from plant-based proteins. Syn- • Sherlock Biosciences
gineering, design, and Institute (JCVI) created the first synthetic
thetic biology will someday help repair • George Church’s lab at
bacterial genome, Mycoplasma genitali-
computer science with um JCVI-1.0, representing the largest defective genes, rid the planet of toxins, Harvard University
biology. Researchers destroy cancer cells, and help mass-pro-
synthetic DNA structure ever created. • Keasling Lab at the Lawrence Berkeley
duce proteins for our consumption. In
design or redesign or- Two years later, they announced the National Laboratory
the last decade, investors put $26 billion
world’s first synthetic life form, a sin-
ganisms on a molecular gle-celled organism made from laborato-
into synbio startups, according to SynBio-
Beta, the synthetic biology industry hub.
level for new purposes, ry chemicals. Swiss researchers showed
Products now underway could generate
it’s possible to program mammalian cells
making them adaptable to do basic math. Researchers at the
$4 trillion by 2031.
to different environ- University of California, San Francisco,
ments or giving them engineered E. coli to be programmed to
find and move along designated paths.
different abilities.
Syn 3.0 has only 473 genes.

Synthetic Biology,
CRISPR
Last year, Jennifer Doudna, a biochemist Scientists hope CRISPR will help boost • Mammoth Biosciences
CRISPR, which stands at the University of California, Berkeley, our immune systems, whether it’s fight-
• Verve Therapeutics
for clustered regular- and Emmanuelle Charpentier, director ing off tumor cells with fewer side effects
of the Max Planck Unit for the Science than chemotherapy or entirely disabling • Plantedit
ly interspaced short cancer cells themselves. Expect wide-
of Pathogens, won the 2020 Nobel Prize • Caribou Biosciences
palindromic repeats, in chemistry for the codevelopment of spread clinical use of the technology this
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals
decade.
allows scientists to edit CRISPR-Cas9. Human trials will test
CRISPR’s potential to treat numerous
precise positions on genetic diseases, including congenital
DNA using a bacterial blindness, muscular dystrophy, Alzhei-
enzyme. The technology mer’s disease, and sickle cell anemia.
is transforming cancer
Jennifer Doudna (right) and Emmanuelle Char-
pentier won the 2020 Nobel Prize in chemistry
treatment, preventing
for codeveloping the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing the spread of disease,
technique.
and addressing global
famine.

Synthetic Biology,
mRNA Vaccines
Last year marked the first time a mar- Researchers can design and test mRNA • BioNTech
As genetic material that keted drug used mRNA vaccines. Unlike vaccines more quickly than traditional
• Moderna
traditional vaccines, which use weakened ones. This new biotechnology can be
contains instructions for manufactured synthetically, rather than • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
bits of a live virus or bits of dead virus,
making proteins, mes- the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna through cultured cell lines or other living • U.S. National Institutes of Health
senger RNA is revolu- COVID-19 vaccines instead used mRNA cells such as chicken eggs (a common
human allergen). Synthetic biology sys- • Intellia Therapeutics
to overwrite the code in our cells. This
tionizing vaccine devel- breakthrough technology falls under the tems can automate the design-test-build
opment. umbrella of synthetic biology. Research- sequence for rapid learning, targeting
variants and making adjustments as
ers believe that sending new instruc-
needed.
tions into our cells could help protect us
against a number of viruses in the very
near future. An mRNA vaccine to fully
immunize people against malaria is in the
works.
Vaccines with messenger RNA are quick to design

and test.

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Perpetual Puppies

Advances in synthetic age reversal find an off-brand use:
our pets. Not only do we rush to keep the pets we love
alive for longer, but some are never even allowed to
age. Socialites biohack puppies and kittens to keep them
purse-sized, preventing them from physically matur-
ing. Even though these pets look adorable, their biology
resists the changes we make, leading to complications and
in some cases shortening their lifespans instead of extend-
ing them. The constant tension between keeping them
young and keeping them alive is a biological balancing act
that torments the animals and leaves them in a near-cata-
tonic state. Animal rights activists push back, but with no
regulation and few enforceable nonhuman rights, perpet-
ually young pets perpetually suffer.

Synthetic Biology,
Synthetic Biology and Biotech Trends
Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism be removed from a living person. As an Assembloids

(SNP) Profiling alternative, scientists are creating or- Miniature snippets of the nervous system
Researchers are developing a new tech- ganoids—tiny blobs grown from human are being used to create miniature blobs
nique that might someday enable people stem cells that could grow into tissues. of brain tissue. When put together, lab-
to upgrade their children before birth. In 2008, researchers created the first grown muscles and brains can establish
Think of an SNP as a single genetic letter cerebral organoids that provided some neural highways and process informa-
(A, T, C, G). Tinkering with the order more understanding of brain functions. tion. Researchers at Stanford University
of those letters could optimize human Cerebral organoids have since been used are experimenting with self-assembling
genetic code for the best possible out- in research on autism and other diseases, tissue that responds to stimuli. In one in-
comes. This doesn’t mean creating babies such as the Zika virus. Researchers at stance, the tissue twitched on command.
with a certain hair or eye color but rather Stanford University and the Chan Zuck-
lowering the odds of future heart disease erberg Biohub created human forebrain
organoids. The forebrain is the part Organoids for COVID-19
or perhaps acquiring diabetes. The pro- Research
cedure requires in vitro fertilization for of the brain responsible for thinking,
now: Embryos can be SNP-profiled, and perceiving, and evaluating our surround- Lab-grown lung and brain tissues are
the best possible combination would be ings. Research is underway elsewhere being used to research the lasting effects
used for the pregnancy. Future genera- that would transplant bits of human of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes
tions would pass those traits forward. brain organoids into rats, raising ethical COVID-19. Miniature guts and livers
concerns. Organoids aren’t conscious are also being grown in high-security
(yet), and as experimentation progresses, labs and infected with the virus, as are
Organoids scientists must develop ethical standards. combinations of different organs (called a
It’s difficult and dangerous for scien- The Brainstorm Project at the National “body on a chip”).
tists to study how living human tissue Institutes of Health will bring together
responds to viruses, medications, or scientists and ethicists to develop a set of
A tiny bioengineered human liver organoid grows in the lab with pluripotent stem cells.
other stimuli: Brain or heart tissue can’t recommendations.
Image credit: Cincinnati Children’s Hospital.

Synthetic Biology,
Super-Fast Molecule Discovery Ciotat,” a black-and-white French short Computational Biology difficult for their offspring to reproduce.
Scientists now use synthetic biology to from 1896. Last year, Chinese scientists Advancements Male mosquitoes don’t bite, and the U.S.
discover and produce molecules on de- at Tianjin University stored 445KB of Proteins are essential to life. These large, Environmental Protection Agency says
mand. The Defense Advanced Research data in an E. coli cell. The Intelligence complex molecules contain chains of they pose no human threat. Local author-
Project Agency and the MIT-Broad Insti- Advanced Research Projects Activity, a amino acids and come in unique shapes. ities, who have been dealing with steadily
tute Foundry tested whether new mole- group within the Office of the Director A protein’s structure determines its job, growing cases of dengue fever and West
cules could be generated for practical use. of National Intelligence, intends to store whether it’s transporting oxygen or Nile virus, hope that a smaller mosquito
By combining artificial intelligence and an exabyte of data—roughly a million protecting the body from pathogens. Re- population will curb the diseases without
synthetic biology, the team delivered six terabyte-sized hard drives—in a blob searchers at DeepMind developed an AI insecticides or poisonous chemicals.
out of the 10 requested designer mole- of DNA. A weird branch of biological system to understand protein structures.
cules in just 90 days. science, yes, but human computing has Called AlphaFold, it accurately predicts Genetically Modified
practical purposes: DNA could solve our the shape of a protein from its amino Cephalopods
future data storage problems. It’s durable, acid sequence. This discovery will ac-
Researchers assembled a working model of a DNA Storage too: Evolutionary scientists routinely Last year, scientists created the first
human brain-to-muscle nerve circuit in a dish. celerate research, giving scientists more genetically modified squid using CRISPR.
In 2018, scientists from Microsoft study DNA that is thousands of years old precise information about how proteins
Image credit: Jimena Andersen/Pasca Lab.
Research and the University of Wash- to learn more about our human ances- Research on cephalopods is particularly
function inside cells. important because squids are highly in-
ington achieved a new milestone: They tors. Twist Bioscience, a DNA storage
discovered how to create random access startup, discovered how to make hyper- telligent, have complex nervous systems,
memory on DNA at scale. They encoded dense, stable, affordable DNA storage. By Engineered Mosquitoes and communicate using sophisticated
200 megabytes of data on human DNA— depositing microscopic drops of nucle- This year, millions of genetically engi- signals that scientists don’t understand.
including 35 video, image, audio, and otides onto silicon chips, Twist’s robots neered mosquitoes will be released in the Researchers could use gene editing to
text files ranging from 29KB to 44MB. can create a million short strands of DNA Florida Keys. The Florida Keys Mosquito study and learn more about cephalopod
To date, scientists have stored a $50 Am- at a time. The end result will be a tiny, Control District Board of Commission- brains. At the Massachusetts-based Ma-
azon gift card, an operating system, and pill-sized container that could someday ers approved a pilot project to intro- rine Biological Laboratory, researchers
a film, “L’arrivée d’un train en gare de La hold hundreds of terabytes of capacity. duce male mosquitoes that have been successfully mapped a squid genome and
engineered to pass on a gene making it edited embryos to create a transparent
creature. (Typically, this variety of squid
Synthetic Biology,
has dark spots.) Because cephalopods are cells to perform useful tasks will still take 2018, scientists at the California Institute DIY Biohacking Projects new ways to engineer food and fabric. A
so intelligent, research is highly regulated time—we’re not talking about engineer- of Technology built a DNA-based ver- Biohacking is a socio-technological team of biohackers created vegan cheese
in the European Union and in Canada, ing synthetic humans, yet—but there are sion of tic-tac-toe with self-assembling movement bringing together citizen from engineered yeast. They used the
but there are fewer protections in the many thought-provoking possibilities. DNA origami tiles. In the future, molec- scientists, academic researchers, tech- yeast to develop milk proteins, which
U.S. As scientists begin editing the genet- The future of synthetic biology might, by ular robotics will offer new opportunities nologists, data scientists, and others they combine with water and vegan oil to
ic code of squid and other sea life, they design, include a self-destruct switch to to advance medicine and agriculture. interested in life sciences. Biohackers make vegan milk, and then continued on
must consider the ethical implications. be used after a completed task—or after are developing DIY solutions for dis- with a more traditional cheese-making
we’ve changed our minds. Cloning and Synthesizing Viruses eases and illnesses, and they’re driven process. The recipe is open source and
Designer Cells by disenchantment with consolidation free. AlgiKnit uses kelp to make apparel
Early in the global pandemic, a team at and footwear and has developed yarn for
Researchers have already developed Molecular Robotics the University of Bern published the in the pharmaceutical industry, long
regulatory processes, and slow product a number of different textiles. Modified
artificial cells that come very close to the Molecular robotics will someday be code for a synthetic SARS-CoV-2 virus. yeasts, proteins, and other bits of DNA
real thing. But last year, University of used on all life forms to provide targeted Anyone could go online and order the development. Some create novel en-
hancements. Openness and collabora- could be hard to control, however. Novel
California, San Diego, scientists dis- therapies as well as genetic augmen- required ingredients—which included the organisms ingested or released into the
covered a technique to create cells that tation. Scientists at the Wyss Institute virus’s genomic instructions and yeast. tion are valued. Biohackers share their
protocols, research, and materials online, world could violate the United Nations
could send protein signals to other cells for Biologically Inspired Engineering at The journal Nature published the paper, Biological Weapons Convention, even
and trigger behavior—mimicking what Harvard University discovered that both which terrified national security experts much as technologists share their code
on GitHub. A group of Bay Area bio- if the biohack isn’t itself intended to be
biological cells do on their own. Artificial robots and our DNA can be programmed concerned that $30,000 and access to a a weapon. Some worry that the open-
cells will soon have practical applications to perform tasks. Molecules can also certified lab would allow anyone to build hackers launched Open Insulin, a project
based on the idea that insulin should be source ethos of biohacking could lead to
in precision medicine, or the custom- self-assemble and react to their environ- their own experiments. The Bern team a new class of biological weapons.
ization of health care. But as synthetic ments. A team of scientists at Arizona had a different perspective: By democ- free. Diabetes affects 422 million people
biology evolves, the implications of State University and Harvard University ratizing access to the novel coronavirus, worldwide, and the project aims to devel-
future designer cells are unpredictable. created single-stranded DNA that can more labs could create diagnostic tests, op the “first freely available, open or- DIY Vaccines
New generations of cells that randomly self-fold into origami-like shapes. It turns treatments, and vaccines. ganisms for insulin production that will Last summer, the U.S. prepared for a
mutate could function in ways we’ve not out that RNA can be used, too—and both be practical for small-scale, locally based new school year with no Covid vaccine
yet imagined. Programming individual can be produced inside living cells. In groups to use.” Biohacking also seeks in sight, and a group of citizen scientists

Synthetic Biology,
began work on their own inoculation us- testing drugs, the FDA doesn’t techni- the genetic sequences of parents, along
ing a DIY approach. The Rapid Deploy- cally have oversight over Radvac’s DIY with cells retrieved during a biopsy, to
ment Vaccine Collaborative (Radvac) in- vaccine kits. generate an embryo’s entire genome.
cludes technologists, scientists, and other Next, they use algorithms to calculate
researchers who believe in an open-sci- Cheaper Genome Sequencing the probabilities of certain ailments.
ence approach. The group, working in Couples can then select the embryos they
borrowed labs using ingredients readily The first human genome cost roughly like, based on those results. While both
found online, created a formula meant $2.7 billion and took 13 years to com- companies are disease focused for now,
to be mixed at home and self-adminis- plete. Today, you can sequence your it is also possible to calculate scores and
tered. They subsequently delivered the genome from the comfort of your own optimize for other genetic traits such as
materials to 70 people. Radvac members, home for less than the price of a cheap height and intelligence. Genomic Pre-
most of whom work anonymously for TV. Nebula Genomics, a spinout from a diction provides genetic report cards
fear of repercussions from their univer- Harvard University lab run by synthetic to would-be parents: They can review
sities, research labs, or funders, pub- biologist George Church, offers a $299 risk assessment grades for heart attacks,
lished a white paper detailing both the test that returns a complete genetic code. certain cancers, and diabetes. They can
group’s research and their instructions Ancestry.com and 23andMe offer geno- also identify those embryos that could
for mixing coronavirus peptides—tiny typing tests, which look only at a part of have extremely low intelligence as adults
Researchers hope that engineered Aedes aegypti mosquitoes will reduce the total population in Florida.
fragments of genetic information that the genome, for $99 to $199. or become among the shortest 2% of the
cannot cause Covid independently. What population.
about regulators? There is no regulatory Gattaca Baby Tests
framework governing the distribution of New genetic screening techniques that Artificial Human Genomes
research, instructions, and supplies for test embryos before implantation are
DIY biohacking projects. While the U.S. Researchers at the University of Tartu,
making their way into fertility centers. Estonia, use neural networks to develop
Food and Drug Administration requires California-based MyOme and New Jer-
a stringent set of criteria for creating and novel segments on human genomes. Be-
sey-based Genomic Prediction now use cause genetic data is sensitive, the hope

Synthetic Biology,
is that an artificial human genome will and implanted synthetic ovaries in mice Prime Editing In the future, if we can quantify aging Building Full Chromosomes
allow researchers to study DNA without that resulted in a successful pregnancy. A new gene-editing technique, which at a cellular level, we might be able to The Human Genome Project-read
infringing on anyone’s privacy. Researchers at the Children’s Hospital of scientists call “prime editing,” could make reverse it. Meanwhile, George Church (HGP-read)—an initiative to sequence
Philadelphia created an artificial womb the process much more precise and result and a team at Harvard’s Wyss Institute the human genome and improve the
Genetic Research’s Bias Problem called a “biobag” and used it to success- in more accurate modifications. As im- combined into a single compound three technology and costs associated with
fully keep premature lambs alive and pressive as CRISPR is, it can sometimes different gene therapies related to cellular sequencing DNA—wrapped up in 2004.
Less than 2% of people who have had developing normally for 28 days. We are decay. The intent: reverse obesity and
their genomes sequenced are from change the wrong genes or accidentally But now there’s a new initiative: the Hu-
still years away from synthesizing and break apart strands of a DNA’s double diabetes while also improving kidney and man Genome Project-write (HGP-write).
Africa. Overwhelmingly, the majority growing a full-size organic womb—but heart function. Remarkably, the tech-
of sequences come from affluent, Cau- helix. The refinement to CRISPR affords This is a synthetic biology initiative, and
the biobag represents an intervention that more precision and versatility. nique seemed to work—in mice. it’s a grand-scale collaboration to synthe-
casian Americans and Europeans. This could help the thousands of premature
excludes an enormous number of people size new species of microbes, plants, and
babies born before 25 weeks each year. Superbugs animals.
from the benefits of genetic research. Synthetic Age Reversal
A decade-long Three Million African The source code for humanity is stored Months before the pandemic, researchers
Genomes project is underway to locate Gene Vandalism at Johns Hopkins University ran a simula- A Shortage of Genome Storage
in our DNA. As we age, the sequence
missing genetic variants from ancestral Sometimes the gene editing process might stay constant, but there are tion of a hypothetical, treatment-resistant One of the fastest-growing datasets in
genomes in Africa. It would build an results in breaking the double strands chemical changes that occur to our DNA. coronavirus outbreak spawned at a Bra- the world comprises human genetic data.
African biobank of clinical information of a DNA’s helix. That results in what Observing those changes could lead to zillian pig farm. In the simulation, 65 mil- By 2025, we may be out of data storage
and could lead to a more equitable future synthetic biologist George Church calls new techniques to halt or even reverse lion people died in just 18 months. When space for human genomes, according to
of genetic research. “gene vandalism.” As cells try to repair the age-related disease. Columbia University SARS-CoV-2 became a global pandemic estimates by the University of Illinois
break, it often results in unintended mod- researchers discovered that it might be last year, it joined a host of superbugs at Urbana-Champaign. As precision
Creating Synthetic Wombs ifications and mutations that cannot be possible to record and store information already rampant elsewhere in the world. medicine, CRISPR, and gene therapy
easily controlled and could be dangerous. about cells as they age. The technique, a Each of them holds potential for massive technologies continue to advance and
In an experiment at Northwestern Gene vandalism is on the rise as more spread, and yet despite these hypothetical
University’s Feinberg School of Med- sort of biological DVR, uses the CRIS- improve, our storage needs will explode,
researchers experiment with CRISPR. PR-Cas system over a period of days. risks, most governments underspend on along with the computing power and
icine, researchers successfully printed emerging disease research. requirements for acquiring, distributing,

Synthetic Biology,
analyzing, encrypting, and safeguard- purportedly eliminated the CCR5 gene in into effect, industrial pig farmers couldn’t the first for China. The United States and
ing our genomics data. As technology a pair of twin girls. That modification, the upgrade their facilities fast enough, South Korea are other existing markets
increasingly intertwines with biology, scientists hoped, would make the twins which led to farm closures and a rerout- for pet cloning, but the practice hasn’t
inadequate storage capacity and insuffi- resistant to HIV, smallpox, and cholera ing of the pork supply. Sick pigs were taken off there. In China, some worry, it
cient technology workflows for storing throughout their lives. It would also be shipped throughout the country, fueling could become more common.
all that data become evermore urgent the first instance of genetically modified the disease spread. China consumes a
issues—and the lack of planning so far humans—despite there being no global tremendous amount of pork, and it will De-Extincting Animals
becomes ever clearer. Australia’s Garvan norms and standards yet for this sort of take years to rebuild the swine popula-
Institute of Medical Research is looking human enhancement. In December 2019, tion. Enter genome editing: Dozens of In 2017, researchers plunged into the
into processes and workflows to reduce Chinese state media revealed that He’s gene-editing experiments and research waters off Lizard Island on the north-
the genomic data footprint in the future. work had resulted in additional births projects are now underway in China to eastern coast of Australia with some
beyond the twins. Authorities arrested develop new breads of disease-resistant, unexpected equipment in tow—a set of
him and sentenced him to three years in climate-acclimating, super pigs intended underwater loudspeakers. Their destina-
China’s Genetically Edited Babies tion was a coral reef that had been all but
prison for “illegal medical practices.” for consumption. The research could
In 2015, Chinese researchers edited the have a spillover effect in other areas of abandoned by a once-thriving population
genes of a human embryo. It was done in agriculture and medicine, and could ulti- of sea life. The researchers hoped that
a petri dish, but it quickly led scientists to Super Pigs by broadcasting the telltale sounds of a
mately speed along new regulations.
sound alarms about the potential of using In 2019, a major outbreak of swine fever healthy reef, they might lure back some
CRISPR to modify embryos during the devastated China’s stock and killed nearly of its vital inhabitants. Remarkably, it
in vitro fertilization process. Since then, a quarter of the global pig population. Unregulated Pet Cloning worked. This experiment was a unique
plenty of experimentation on human em- Though the disease was first reported in Sinogene, a Beijing-based commercial instance of rewilding, a holistic approach
bryos has ensued in China. In late 2018, a August 2018, it took the Chinese govern- pet cloning company, sequenced, cloned, to conservation that focuses on restoring
The longfin inshore squid on the left is unmodified,
with its original red dots visible. The right was
team of researchers led by Dr. He Jiankui ment a long time to act. Paradoxically, and delivered a cat named Garlic for a the natural phenomena of wilderness
edited using CRISPR-Cas9 to make it completely at the Southern University of Science and the disease spread because the Chinese 22-year-old businessman. Pet cloning is ecosystems, providing connective corri-
translucent. Technology in Shenzhen used CRISPR in government took positive steps to curb an unregulated business, and while Garlic dors between wild spaces, and reintro-
Image credit: Karen Crawford. conjunction with in vitro fertilization and pollution. After new regulations went wasn’t the world’s first cloned pet, he was ducing keystone species to their natural

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Biology, Biotech and Agriculture Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
habitats. A term coined more than 30 Microbiome Extinction of meat available—means that we’re learn about fecal microbiomes. Investors The Post-Natural Age
years ago, rewilding has gained renewed A mass extinction event is happening ingesting compounds that are helping to have poured more than $1 billion into In the 20th century, biologists focused
attention in the past few years as the cli- right now in our guts and in the environ- destroy our own microbiomes. microbiome startups since 2016. on taking things apart—things such as
mate crisis has grown more dire and new ment. The widespread use of antibiotics, Humans are complex, composite or- tissues, cells, and proteins—to learn how
technologies have promised to protect along with diets rich in processed foods, ganisms, made up of layers and layers Building a Comprehensive Human they function. This century, synthetic
and rehabilitate ecosystems. have led to a staggering decline of micro- of cells. Researchers now think that our Cell Atlas biologists are focusing on intentional
organisms in wealthy nations. During the gut microbiome is directly linked to our design—improving organisms or con-
Researchers are building the first-ever
Microbe-Engineering as a Service past 12,000 years of human evolution, metabolism, our immune systems, our structing new materials from life’s build-
comprehensive map of all 37.2 trillion
Synthetic biology is an emerging field we’ve shifted nature’s balance—our diets central nervous systems, and even the ing blocks. We are transitioning from
human cells in the body. A large team
are now relatively narrow, compared to cognitive functions inside our brains. It’s natural selection to artificial selection to
that builds new life: replacement organs of scientists—including 130 software
our far-distant ancestors. Recently, sci- an inherited problem: Most of our mi- intentional design facilitated by synthetic
and soft tissue, as well as entirely new engineers, mathematicians, computa-
kinds of organisms never before seen entists studied modern hunter-gatherer crobiomes come to us from our mothers biology. The more powerful and more
tional scientists, biologists, clinicians,
on Earth. Zymergen, based in the Bay tribes in Tanzania, Peru, and Venezuela as we pass through the birth canal. A and physicists hailing from Israel, the refined that software design tools and
and found their microbiota had 50% number of researchers are now looking DNA technologies become, the more
Area, is developing original microbes for Netherlands, Japan, the UK, the U.S., and
more bacterial species than those in the at the future of our microbiomes. Ve- complex biological creations developers
making specialty polymers, which have Sweden—are mapping the human body
West today. Unlike those tribes, we no danta Biosciences is making gut bacteria will build. We have opened the door to
applications in military equipment and on a cellular level. Although a cell atlas
longer hunt and eat wild flora and fauna. that can be turned into drugs and counts the post-natural age.
electric vehicles. It raised $400 million in has long been theorized, new biological
Those from wealthier countries now eat the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as
its third round of funding from SoftBank tools and more powerful computers have
very little dietary fiber, a limited variety one of its investors. Startup uBiome has
Vision Fund, Goldman Sachs, Hanwha turned this one-time vision into a reality.
of fruits and vegetables, and only four launched several at-home microbiome
Asset Management, and others. Syn- These scientists believe a comprehensive
species of livestock: sheep, poultry, cattle, tests—although currently a subscription
thetic biologists at Ginkgo Bioworks reference map for all human cells in the
and pigs. Worse, widespread use of anti- is required for a test. The American Gut
build custom-crafted microbes for their body will give the medical community a
biotics in farm animals—used not neces- Project, the American Gastroenterolog-
customers. An example: designer bacteria new way of understanding how our bod-
sarily to prevent disease but to increase ical Association, and OpenBiome will
enabling crops to fertilize themselves. ies work and will help diagnose, monitor,
weight gain and therefore the volume track 4,000 patients over 10 years to and treat disease.

Agriculture
Synthetic Biology,
AgTech
If you’re a human who eats food, you Our existing global food system is a • Azure FarmBeats
By 2050, we must in- should care deeply about the global food significant driver of climate change. The
• John Deere
supply. With our global weather patterns food system is also vulnerable to climate
crease agriculture change’s effects. We’re facing a long-term • Plantix
and climates in flux, it’s plausible that the
production by 70% to world’s current agricultural centers won’t existential risk in the global food supply, • Higher Steaks
meet projected global sustain commercial farms in the near but we’re also seeing tremendous new
• Artemys Foods
future. Today’s agriculture system alone research and opportunity in agtech.
demand for food. Tradi- won’t work. The availability of sensors, • Earthpac
tional farming methods new types of irrigation, improved light- • Infarm
won’t cut it. That short- ing, and more efficient ways to capture
and process data promise to modernize
fall has spawned a new and decentralize the agricultural sector.
generation of agricul-
ture technology start-
ups. Dozens of start-
up accelerators have
popped up, and big tech
firms such as Microsoft
Emerging technologies will transform agriculture.
and Amazon have built
new businesses to sup-
port high-tech farms.
Synthetic Biology,
AgTech Trends
Precision Agriculture Deep Learning for Food testing the technology on two of its U.S.
Precision agriculture promises to in- Recognition farms as part of a multiyear plan to mod-
crease crop yields and profitability, while Agricultural companies, farmers, and ernize agriculture with data analytics.
reducing the costs of watering, fertiliz- food manufacturers could benefit from The system uses unlicensed, long-range
ing, and treating crops for pests. Using deep learning for food recognition. Plan- TV white space spectrum to connect and
sensors, algorithms, and optimization tix, a cloud-based AI system, identifies capture data from solar-powered sensors,
analytics, farmers can now quantify the pests and disease in crops when a farmer while drones gather aerial footage of
progress of every single crop—down to a uploads photos of suspicious plants. crops. Machine learning algorithms mine
single cherry tomato hanging on a par- Using image recognition, the system and refine the data, before sending anal-
ticular vine. Modern agriculture relies on cross-references a database of various yses back to farmers with recommenda-
efficient management and accurate pre- species to offer assessments of potential tions on how to tweak their resource use.
dictions. University of Illinois research- problems—such as lack of water or mi- This kind of cloud analytics is drawing
ers combined seasonal climate data and cronutrients. Automated picking systems investment and R&D, and spawning
satellite images with the U.S. Department by Abundant Robotics and FFRobotics startups. Consolidation may be on the
of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Sup- scan and “read” produce to determine near horizon.
ply and Demand Estimates to build new ripeness. Dairy farms can monitor milk
prediction models to help farmers predict quality with SomaDetect’s optical sensors Vertical Farming Grows Up
crop yields in advance of environmental and machine learning system. Blue River Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and SoftBank’s
factors. South Dakota State University Technology uses deep learning to auto- CEO Masayoshi Son (until April 2021)
invested $46 million in a precision agri- matically detect and spray weeds. have both invested in vertical farming,
culture facility and will unveil precision a burgeoning industry in which crops
ag courses this year. In the near future, Agricultural Clouds are grown in stacked layers inside of
expect drones with smart cameras, data climate-controlled environments. In
mining to decipher crop blossoming and Microsoft launched FarmBeats, a sort
Microsoft’s FarmBeats brings AI to farmers around the world.
of Internet of Things for farms, on its the past, the expense of robots, artificial
ripeness, and new analytics dashboards to light, and other equipment made ver-
help farmers make smarter decisions. Azure marketplace. The company is

Synthetic Biology,
AgTech Trends
tical farms difficult to scale. But that’s 200 plant factories are subsidized by the indoor food production. Using complex it is key to lab-grown meat substitutes.
changing as the ecosystem matures and government, but they thrive thanks to algorithms and sensors attached to plants Many U.S. grocery stores and the Mexi-
technology improves. Today, thanks to Japanese consumer demand for fresh, inside hydroponic systems, the research- can restaurant chain Chipotle sell Impos-
brighter, cheaper LED light bulbs, cloud- local, pesticide-free food. Near Kyoto, ers track carbon dioxide, temperature, sible meat, a beef substitute made from
based AI systems, and more available the Kansai Science City microfarm uses water, plant tissue health, and more. genetically-modified yeast. Memphis
agricultural sensors, vertical farms can artificial intelligence and collaborative They analyze the data and optimize for Meats, Beyond Meat, and Aleph Farms
now cultivate lettuce, spinach, basil, gar- robots to raise seedlings, replant them, growing the most nutritious, tastiest use pea protein and other plant material
lic, and snow peas. They tend to deliver water them, adjust their lighting, and foods possible. to create approximations of chicken and
10 to 20 times the total yield of conven- harvest fresh produce. In nearby Kameo- beef. Eclipse Foods makes a plant-based
tional farms with far less waste. Vertical ka, Spread uses machines and robots to CRISPR Crops dairy ice cream base. New Wave Foods
farming projects now scatter the globe, cultivate plants that produce 20,000 to makes algae-based shrimp, and Finless
settling mostly in urban centers such as 30,000 lettuce heads per day. Plants ma- The gene-editing tool CRISPR prom- Foods makes fish flesh. The clean meat
Baltimore and Chicago. ture in just 40 days before being shipped ises to enhance the nutritional value of movement is heading towards acellular
In Japan, vertical indoor farming is becoming to nearby Japanese supermarkets. In produce, increase crop yields, and extend agriculture, which doesn’t require starter
more widespread.
California, Iron Ox’s fully autonomous, freshness. CRISPR has increased the cells extracted from muscle biopsies.
Indoor Plant Factories level of omega-3s in plants and aided
hydroponic indoor farm uses two robots French lawmakers banned vegetarian
Many countries lack the land mass or to plant, maintain, and harvest produce. the creation of non-browning apples, companies from calling their products
infrastructure to grow high-quality In just a single indoor, automated acre, drought-resistant rice, and mushrooms “bacon” and “sausage.” In 2018, the U.S.
produce, so they’re bringing traditional those two bots can produce the equiva- that can withstand jostling during trans- beef industry filed a petition to bar
agriculture indoors and underground, lent of 30 acres of outdoor farming. portation. (In most markets, product nonanimal products from the definition
using high-tech robotics, irrigation, and labels identify such products as genetical- of meat. Plant-based meat sales have
lighting systems to cultivate food. In the ly modified.) eclipsed $1 billion annually. In the future,
U.S., 80 Acres Farms is building a fully Big Ag Data
you may buy meat at a local microbrew-
automated indoor farm, nearly the size of Researchers at the Massachusetts Insti- Cellular Agriculture ery that “brews” meat instead of beer.
two football fields, just outside of Cincin- tute of Technology now crunch data to
nati. Japan has emerged as a world leader come up with “plant recipes” to improve Cellular agriculture refers to agricultural
in indoor farming. Many of the country’s products produced by cell cultures, and

Synthetic Biology,
AgTech Trends
Hybrid Animal-Plant Meats isn’t a worldwide phenomenon. That and edible packaging, and packaging that ings and scientists at Arizona State Uni- Off-Planet Terraforming
The cost of lab-grown meat still remains could change. The environmentalist case “eats” itself after it is no longer needed. versity manufacture artificial trees that Terraforming—literally, “earth shap-
expensive. This year, we expect more for eating crickets rather than chickens University of Minnesota researchers are can absorb carbon dioxide. The “leaves” ing”—is a concept from science fiction in
new cultured-meat alternatives, made by holds that raising and consuming insects developing polymers that self-destruct or are plastic-like discs that absorb CO2 in which people re-form another planet to
mixing cultured beef cells and plant pro- produces significantly lower greenhouse “unzip” when exposed to light, heat, or the air and wind. When filled, the leaves resemble Earth and support human life.
teins. The Artemys Burger is a hybrid, gas emissions, doesn’t require extensive acid. Saltwater Brewery designed biode- drop down into the “trunk” and onward But as humans begin serious off-planet
meant to reduce the costs of cultured land and water, and inflicts less long- gradable and edible plastic rings for six- into pipes that collect the liquid CO2 for exploration (see: Space and Off-Planet
products and attract more consumers. term damage to the planet. Moreover, packs of beer—so sea turtles can eat them resale to beverage companies. Columbia Trends), we must develop new agri-
bugs contain plenty of protein, fatty rather than get tangled in them. Infarm University has a similar project in the cultural techniques suitable for space.
Higher Steaks, a U.K. startup, is devel- acids, and fiber. Only a few years ago, created a renewable plastic that folds works. Another approach is to convert
oping blended pork products, including Our current microbes may be key to
insect cultivation remained the domain around objects. It uses seaweed-based atmospheric CO2 into carbon nanofi- terraforming, because they can survive
bacon, which includes 70% cultured of small, experimental startups. Recently, agar-agar gel to grow microgreens and bers for use in consumer and industrial
pork cells mixed with plant proteins. such harsh environments as the Atacama
though, the USDA awarded $1.45 million herbs that don’t need water. Earthpac, products, such as wind turbine blades or Desert. Of course, we may invent entire-
This year, KFC will begin selling hybrid in research grants for bug proteins, and meanwhile, makes biodegradable cutlery airplanes. Chemists at George Washing-
chicken nuggets, made of 20% cultured ly new life forms using synthetic biolo-
now the North American Coalition for and trays from starch derived from pota- ton University are experimenting with gy. To advance from theory to reality,
chicken cells and 80% plants. Clara Foods Insect Agriculture estimates the market to processing wastewater. what they call “diamonds from the sky”—
serves creamy, lab-grown eggs, fish that terraforming requires a host of robots to
could top $1 billion by 2023. because diamonds are made from carbon. mine for resources and build an ecosys-
never swam in water, and cow’s milk The scientists bathe carbon dioxide in
brewed from yeast. Perfect Day makes Artificial Trees tem capable of sustaining human life, as
Intelligent Packaging molten carbonates at 750 degrees Cel- well as hybrid-skilled researchers with
lab-grown yogurt, cheese, and ice cream. Carbon dioxide is the undisputed culprit sius, then introduce atmospheric air and
Smart packaging will drive agricultural when it comes to climate change. But backgrounds in biology, botany, agricul-
an electrical current on nickel and steel ture, robotics, and physics.
Insect Agriculture and Bug advances and investment. The nascent what if we could just suck it out of the electrodes. The carbon dioxide dissolves,
Proteins market is growing and includes such air? Trees do that naturally, but with de- and carbon nanofibers form on the steel
tech as QR codes for moisture-control forestation, there’s not enough to make a electrode.
In some cultures, people eat bugs as part and temperature sensors, antimicrobial sizable impact. Silicon Kingdom Hold-
of their daily diets, but bug-based cuisine

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Emailing Apples to Space
Far-future optimistic scenario

The first colonists to arrive on Mars bring a mixed
payload of seedlings, mature plants, and special printers
designed to extrude DNA from code. A team of expat
astrobiologists and engineers collaborate with researchers
back on Earth to test off-planet terraforming. Just like
in the early days of the world wide web, when disparate
groups of academics sent data around the world using a
nascent internet, these researchers use an interplanetary
communications system to send and retrieve biological
data. Rather than sending an apple tree to space, Earthers
send the DNA to new Martians for tweaking and print-
ing. Exotic Martian agriculture is sent back to Earth for
experimentation and enjoyment.

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Mars had been a colony for a long time, and it was filled with the best
scientists and technologists humanity had to offer. We were ready to
govern ourselves and start a new nation of our own, but everything we
built, or mined, or made, was still the property of old mother Earth.
— Solomon Epstein in The Expanse

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Application
The intersection of technology, agricul- Bioluminescence could provide ar- Biotech R&D has plenty of interest, Each of these trends poses clear risks
ture, and biotech impacts every busi- tificial light sources, and agriculture thanks to the groundbreaking success of dual-use technologies. While CRIS-
ness, because ultimately these trends clouds will lead to hyper-productive of mRNA Covid vaccines and the 2020 PR promises to revolutionize health
influence the future of life. Chief strat- farms. Chief innovation officers have a Nobel Prize awarded to the scientists care, it can also be weaponized. Chief
egy officers should begin to plan for world of opportunity ahead. Innovation behind CRISPR. Investors express risk officers must carefully consider
next-order changes on the horizon. Im- teams should begin developing new enthusiasm about the possibilities of the downstream impacts of using new
proved packaging will make the cold uses, models, and products that will these technologies, but they aren’t al- biotechnologies. An even thornier risk
chain less energy hungry and easier to soon unlock new consumer demand ways patient. R&D teams should work on the horizon: If a new technology
manage, while universal vaccines will spaces. to convince executives and boards promises to address a major issue,
result in employees who get sick less that the next few years will require such as climate change, and your
often. First movers and fast followers research—and product development company does not embrace it, could
could help shape the directions of their will follow. your organization face future lawsuits
industries, which would be a long-term or regulatory actions?
strategic advantage.

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Every executive team should begin by asking these questions about synthetic biology, genetic
editing, and agricultural technologies:
1 2 3
In what ways will What parts of our Are we adequately
?
advances in synthetic business make us planning for the longer
biology improve our vulnerable to ethical term?
supply chain? challenges?
Our manufacturing hold true for our current
processes? Our product strategy to succeed?
lines?
How will we make
needed changes?

Synthetic Biology,
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Selected Sources
Hao, Min & Qiao, Hongyan & Gao, World leaders heap praise on human De-extinction critics at Scientific
Yanmin & Wang, Zhaoguan & Qiao, genome landmark. https://www.na- American have missed the point. http://
Xin & Chen, Xin & Qi, Hao. (2020). A ture.com/articles/35016696 www.theguardian.com/environment/
mixed culture of bacterial cells enables nature-up/2013/jun/07/deextinc-
an economic DNA storage on a large The Ethical and Philosophical Ques- tion-critics-scientific-american
scale. Communications Biology. 3. 416. tions Raised By Creation of First Syn-
10.1038/s42003-020-01141-7. thetic Cell. https://www.theatlantic. UN Report: Nature’s Dangerous Decline
com/technology/archive/2010/05/the- ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction
Yi X, Liang Y, Huerta-Sanchez E, Jin X, ethical-and-philosophical-questions- Rates ‘Accelerating’. https://www.
Cuo ZXP, Pool JE, et al. Sequencing raised-by-creation-of-first-synthetic- un.org/sustainabledevelopment/
of 50 human exomes reveals adap- cell/345491/ blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprece-
tation to high altitude. Science (80-). dented-report
2010. doi: 10.1126/science.1190371. Genetics pioneer J. Craig Venter
pmid:20595611 announced Thursday that he and his US Competitiveness in Synthetic Biolo-
team have created artificial life for the gy. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/
Kingma DP, Welling M. Auto-Encod- first time. http://www.cnn.com/2010/ articles/PMC4685481/
ing Variational Bayes. 2013 Dec 20; HEALTH/05/21/venter.qa/index.html
Available from: http://arxiv.org/ Companies rush to build ‘biofacto-
abs/1312.6114 Scientists unveil first draft of human ries’ for medicines, flavorings and
genome. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih. fuels. https://www.washingtonpost.
Creating artificial human genomes us- gov/pmc/articles/PMC1127709/ com/national/health-science/
ing generative neural networks Yelmen companies-rush-to-build-biofacto-
B, Decelle A, Ongaro L, Marnetto D, Climate Change Threatens the World’s ries-for-medicines-flavorings-and-fu-
Tallec C, et al. (2021) Creating artifi- Food Supply, United Nations Warns els/2013/10/24/f439dc3a-3032-11e3-
cial human genomes using generative (Published 2019). https://www.nytimes. 8906-3daa2bcde110_story.html
neural networks. PLOS Genetics 17(2): com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-
e1009303. https://doi.org/10.1371/jour- change-food-supply.html
nal.pgen.1009303

FTI 2021 Tech Trends Volume All

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

FTI 2021 Tech Trends Volume All

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

00 Overview, Methodology and Frameworks 03

02 Scoring and Recognition 93

03 New Realities, Synthetic Media, News and Information 117

04 Work, Culture and Play 164

05 Health, Medical and Wearables 196

06 Home Automation and Consumer Electronics 237

07 Policy and Government 260

08 Privacy and Security 300

09 Blockchain, Fintech and Crypto 335

10 5G, Robots and Transportation 358

11 Energy, Climate and Space 434

12 Synthetic Biology, Biotech and Agriculture 477

© 2021 Future Today Institute

14th Annual Edition

05 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Macro Forces and

Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.

Each trend offers six important insights.

Macro Forces and

Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes

2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3

07 © 2021 Future Today Institute

08 © 2021 Future Today Institute

09 © 2021 Future Today Institute

These 11 Macro Forces represent external uncertainties that

FTI Senior Foresight Associate Marc Palatucci refers to this

We also consider each of the macro sources to ensure that

10 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Macro Forces Wealth Distribution:

Weak Signals are...

• A new technology development that has not yet entered the

• Evidence of an existing thing becoming obsolete, or evidence of

• A recently revealed problem or state of affairs that does not

Strong Signals are...

• A new market technology, strategy, product, or service entering a

• Factors that challenge current beliefs or assumptions and have

• Obvious advance warning indicators

12 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Trends emerge from the intersection of macro forces and

The Four Laws of Tech Trends

1. Trends are driven by primary forces of change and our

2. Trends are timely, but they persist in the wake of new

3. Trends are the convergence of weak and strong signals

4. Trends evolve as they emerge.

13 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Trend vs. Trendy: Knowing the Difference

14 © 2021 Future Today Institute

15 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Six key factors indicate trends, and they

Contradictions, inflections, and practices

16 © 2021 Future Today Institute

• Some importance and/or impact, but more

• Interest from within our organization

17 © 2021 Future Today Institute

the progress of a project toward a finite goal, but

12 - 24 months 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years 10+ years

Example time ranges

18 © 2021 Future Today Institute

How to Do Strategic Planning Like a Futurist

19 © 2021 Future Today Institute

The Future Today Institute’s scenario

20 © 2021 Future Today Institute

21 © 2021 Future Today Institute