LEC# 05

MIDDLE EAST CONT…

SAUDI ARABIA- IRAN CONFLICIT
1- CONFLICT
2- Iran is a revisionist power while the Saudi is status quo power in Persian Gulf (middle
east plus Iran).
3- Iran is trying to revive in Yemen.
 the society in Yemen-capital sana- is divided into two tribes,
o the southern tribes and
o the northern tribes.
o Northern tribes have been controlling the decision making in political issues
while southern tribes remain exploited. Resultantly there have always been
rivalry bw both.
 1-2002 southern tribe started armed resistance in the leadership of
Badr ud Din alHouthis.
 2- sectarian division, like any Muslim country/Nation yamen is divided
on sectarian line. 30 of the communities are Sunni Muslims (sanafi
thoughts and mostly Wahhabis) while Shia are in minority (Zaidi Shia
and gHouthis Shia). In Yemen sectarian violence was never a major
issue because tribal system usually dominated but onwards 2015 the
conflict is pre-dominantly on sectarian lines. Ali Abdullah saleh (late)
(the ex-president) vs Mansoor hadi (the current president), an
agreement took place bw both. According to agreement ali Abdullah
stepped down from presidancey and hadi became president for 2
years. And at the end of two years hadi was supposed to conduct
presidential elections at the end of 2 years but he did not rather he
elected himself as the president for the entire tenure for existing
parliament. Ali Abdullah saleh plus Houthis rebels allied against hadi
(joint armed resistance).
4- Iran supports Houthis rebels with finance and weapons. Iran has announced these
rebels freedom parties but GCC believes Iran is supporting them and they call them
terrorist parties. Saudi Arabia supported Hadi. The first Arial strike by GCC specially
Saudi in march 27 2015. The did strike because the Houthis rebels took over Sana.
Mansoor hadi asked for military support from GCC especially Saudi Arabia. Since
then GCC has been chilling out strikes in yamen.
5- They both countries are doing this because yamen hold immense geo strategic power
for both. As Yemen has long shared border with Saudi Arabia. On both the sides of
border Shia population inhabitates. And the Shia dominant provinces of Saudi Arabia
are oil riched regions. Iran’s growing presence in yamen provides an opportunity to
Shia of Saudi Arabia ------.
o For example the repeated attacks carried out by Houthis rebels in Iran
especially the attack on two attacks on oil field in 2019, which lessened 50%
Saudi Arabia’s oil production. Resultantly, the internal security of Saudi
Arabia is at threat due to growing Houthis rebels in Saudi Arabia. More than
 705 of Saudi oil trade passes through strait of adain. Iran’s presence in Yemen
endangers that trade.
o Another example Syria, In Syria Iran supports the govt of Bashar ul asad both
with soldiers, weapons and finance. While the GCC especilay Saudi Arabia
has been supporting the FSA rebels, Al nusrah rebels with weapons and
finance. These rebels has been called as freedom fighters by GCC but Iran call
the terrorist.
6- The conflict has been there since 2010
IMPORTANCE OF SYRIA
 Syria is the supply line for the Hezbullah in Lebanon. Iran has been the major supplier
of weapon to Hezbullah (the jihadist org fighting in Israel), but this org also has a
sectarian version that is an Shia org that supports Iran and Bashar ul asaad
government against the Sunni rebels. Iran Iraq Syria and Lebanon are supply line.
Irans advantage- basharul asad it self is Shia and both support Hezbullah, Israel is
both’s enemy, Saudi Arabia is common threat. So Iran wants Basharul asad in power.
On the other hand, Iran would have continued supply to Hezbullah and Hezbullah will
remain string in Lebanon. Thus biggest proxy of Iran in Lebanon is Hezbullah which
wil remain strng.
 Saudi has been supporter of govt of Lebanon. If the govt is de stabilized it will be
done by Hezbullah with support of Iran. For that it is necessary that the supply line
via Syria cuts down. That will lead to basharul asads govt end and election in Syria
would take place. Thus, the sunni domninant govt will take place in Syria because 60
plus population is sunni but now there is Shia govt. thus bashar ul asad govt end will
enhance the power of Saudi.
 The growing presence of Iran in Iraq- Irans presence in Iraq is a set back to Saudi.
How it increased? In 2003, US militarily intervened in Iraq and the govt of Sadam
Hussain was toppled down. For the 1st time Shia dominant govt under the Noor ul
Mallick was established. Iraq is Shia dominant state. Thus that created soft cprner for
Iran. Also the rise of mehdi Malaysia (Shia armed rebel group) govt. thus the role of
Iran in Iraq tremendously increases resulting in set beck to Saudi. How set back? By
rise of Shia govt and rise of mehdi Malaysia. Irraq has shared boundaries with both
Iran and Saudi Arabia, thus growing presence of Iran in Iraq is threat to internal
security of Saudi Arabia.
 JCPOA or P5+1 deal- two major aspects of this deal. 1- Iran would reduce the
uranium enrichment to 3.4% for civilian purposes. Those nuclear reactors having
higher enrichment capacity would be dismantled. Iran would transport highly
enriched uranium which is kept in Iran in stored form will be transported to Turkey
and Russia. 2- In return sanctioned will be removed from Iran. Iran remained under
severe sanctioned for near two years. Severity of the sanctions- From 2008-2013 was
the toughest period faced by Iran, 100 to 120 BN dollars was the loss faced b Iran
each year. Further 46 bn dollars of Iran were freezed in foreign account. How
sanctioned removed? An observer team under IAEA were established. The observer
team would investigate the performance of Iran regarding the reduction of enrichment
level of Iran of uranium. And it would submit the report quarterly. On the basis of
which sanctions will be removed from Iran. In 2015 this P5+1 deal was signed. The
 major beneficiary was Iran. HOW? 1- the Irans economy started stabilizing once
again that were decling due to sanctions.2- it came out of the international isolation.
how? 1- After Iranian revolution, in 2015 US relations with Iran. 3- financially it got
stabilized and were able to support proxies like Houthis rebels and Hezbullah. And it
was Saudi’s disadvantage.
COUNTER MOVES BY SAUDI ARABIA-
 establishment of IMCTC,
o it is a military org comprising of 41 countries. It is the brain child of Saudi
Arabia. Saudi Arabia purchases weapons and provides to IMCTC.
o Objective of Saudi Arabia from alliance?
 1- counter the rise of insurgent groups in middle east.
 2- to strengthen the military capabilities against any possible attacks.
 3- when needed use it against Iran, although it is not mentioned
anywhere in IMCTC objectives, but there is stronger perception in Iran
about this (says Tehran).
 Further Saudi Arabia Established GCC
o it comprises of 6 countires.it was originally meant for economic
collaboration. But with the passage of time it also became a military bloc to
contain Iran.
o Along with Israel Saudi Arabia influenced the trump administration to move
out of the P5+1 deal and impose the sanctions again on Iran. Isarel along with
Saudi called this deal plunder. Thus, US re-imposed the sanctions on Iran.
 How re imposed? US pressurized multinational companies to pull out
from Iran or face US sanctions. Except Russian and Chinese
companies all moved out. US pressurized its allies like Europe, japan,
India to reduce its energy imports from Iran. So that’s how revival of
sanctions on Iran was major setback to Iran and advantageous to Saudi
Arabia. Iran again gets isolated. Anti-Iran alliance.
o Both Iran and Saudi Arabia has adopted sectarian policies against each other.
 How?
 Iran promotes shites Muslims while Saudi promotes wahabi Muslims.
In 1979 there occurred a revolution in Iran. That revolution the
kingship was ended (Raza sah dehlvi) and the govt of revolutionaries
was established. Further supreme council was established, and it was
led by imam ---- and now lead by-----.
 The rev govt approached middle east in 2 ways.
 1- by supporting rebels against the kings and dictators in
middle east.
 2- influencing the Shia population by promoting Shia Islam.
On the other hand, Afghan jihad, Saudi had leading role. There
were three key players in that jihad, pak, US, and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia provided funds and also promoted wahabi islam
by promoting developing madrassa’s across Pakistan.
IMPLICATIONS OF RIVALRY ON PAKISTAN
INTERNAL IMPLICSTIONS
o Rise of sectarian terrorism. HOW? In 1980s, on one hand Iran supported shite and
Saudi supported wahabis all around world by supporting imam bargahs and madrassas
from the respective countries. And those madrassas and imam bargahs promoted
sectarian ------. And the sectarian cleric started hate speeches.
o The rise of sectarian terrorist organizations like Sipa e sihaba, lashker e jangvi (sunni)
sipa e Muhamad and fatimon (Shia). Thus, these terrorist orgs became Pakistan’s
largest national security threat. Where are they? In Quetta Karachi, Gilgit, DI khan,
Kohat, rwp and the list goes on. Thus, sectarian terrorism became the biggest threat to
national security than general terrorism.
EFFECT ON FOREGIN POLLICY
o Persistent confusion in Pakistan’s foreign policy. HOW? On one hand it is
Saudi Arabia which is of great importance for Pak and other is Iran which is
equally important.
o IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA FOR PAK- Saudi Arabia is economic,
diplomatic socio-economic, strategic and spiritual importance for pak. HOW?
o Economic: 2.5 Diaspora of Pakistan in Saudi which sends more than 5bn
dollar to Pakistan which means Pakistan’s remittance are 5bn dollar. They
helping in stabilizing the dollar. Saudi Arabia would become the 2 nd largest
investor in Pakistan after china, as it signed MOU of 20bn dollars with
Pakistan, the major one is establishment of petro-chemical complex at
Gawadar. Saudi always provided bail out packages to Pakistan the most recent
one is of 2018s 6.2 bn dollars in which 3 bn dollars were kept in Pakistan’s
foreign account and 3,2 bn dollars oil would be provided to Pak in deferred
payment. Pakistan 2nd largest importing country for oil is Saudi Arabia first is
Abu Dhabi.
o DIPLOMATIC: it is not only Saudi Arabia its GCC which carries immense
importance for pak. HOW? After Saudi Arabia the second largest remitter to
pak is UAE annually 4 bn dollars. Identical bail out package 6.2 billion dollars
in 2018 by UAE. 4th largest importer of Pakistani products is UAE. UAE
imports the largest amount of oil to Pakistan. If our relation are not good with
Saudi Arabia then automatically our relations with middle east will be affected
thus our relation with Saudi has direct impact on middle east. In 2015, when
Saudi Arabia requested Pakistan to send troops to Yemen and Pakistan said
NO, it affected UAE too and these both countries increased their relationship
with India.
o STRATEGIC IMP: IMCTC comprises of 41 countries and is brain child of
Saudi Arabia but the military leadership is with Pakistan because the military
of pak is expert in counter insurgency among Muslim countries. Also, because
 the Saudi is strategic partner of Pakistan. The protection of Harmain
shareefain is the responsibility of Pakistan (said army chief). But
o SPIRITUAL IMP: the religious attachment of Pakistanis is due to mecca and
medina.
IRANS IMPORTANCE
 Pakistan is having shared border with iran. Pak already has tense relations
with India and afg thus it can not afford bad relations with iran also.
Because its priority of every country to have good relations with
neighbours. If Pakistan has more tilt towards Saudi Arabia then iran has
more towards India.Iran would be a key partner in CPEC. HOW? As the
biggest exporting market of Iranian hydrocarbon is china which were thru
sea but now Pakistan provides 12000 km shortest distance.
 Security concerns of both countries raised after establishment of ISKB in
Afg which is an existential threat to both as it has made an alliance with
jand ullah in Iran and in Pakistan it has allied in Lashkr e jangvi and TTP.
Thus our security concerns converge.
 Economic interest of both iran and Pakistan are increasingly linked with
china.
 If pak makes pro Saudi Arabia relations, Iran would get antagonized and
also the shia population of Pakistan would also antagonize.
WHAT TO DO?
 Pakistan’s relation with Saudi should be continued both economic and strategic.
Pakistan has got an oppurtuny to have good relations with Saudi as trump lost
elections and biden did show any interest with tilted interest. In the tenure of trump
the relations bw US and Saudi Arabia were very great. March onwards Saudi has been
trying to revive strategic relations with Pakistan. Pakistan heads IMCTC also Saudi’s
defense dependency on Pakistan would also be increased. But these growing relations
should not antagonize Iran. HOW? If Saudi Arabia increases relations with India then
why not Pakistan continues to increases relations with iran. Thus pak-saudi rrlations
would create heat in Tehran so to cold down the heat Pakistan should announce iran
as CPEC ambassador. Start the railway bw pak and iran. Shops on the both sides of
border.
 Pakistan must remain the part of IMCTC but if it becomes sectarian it should walk
away. Because the primary obj of IMCTC is to counter terrorism and Pakistan leads
this organization. This role gives Pakistan an opportunity to have good military
defense relation with not only GCC but whole Muslim world. But if IMCTC becomes
sectarian (chances are there) then who would define the terrorist. What if IMCTC
starts strike against Houthis relbels then it means it targets shia rebels and thus Iran
would plunge into this war. Thus that’s how IMCTC would just be anti shia
organization. So Pakistan cant be a part of that. But Pakistan being the leader of
IMCTC, it would not become sectarian and Iran knows that.
 Pakistan should play role of mediator bw two countries to minimize the tension bw
two countries that will lead to benefit of whole ummah. In 1997 we played this role
and again in 2015 and 2019, we tried to reduce the tension bw both these countries.
Thus the Riyadh is also thinking of having negotiations with Tehran, arab media says
secret negotiations have been place bw both these countries.