0.

Suavizacion
Demanda Promedio Error
Mes Error (EMA) exponencial
(unidades) Movil (k=3) (EMA)
(alpha=0.2)

1 524 524.0
2 380 524.0 144.0
3 250 495.2 245.2
4 432 384.7 47.3 446.2 14.2
5 526 354.0 172.0 443.3 82.7
6 322 402.7 80.7 459.9 137.9
7 836 426.7 409.3 432.3 403.7
8 277 561.3 284.3 513.0 236.0
9 154 478.3 324.3 465.8 311.8
10 644 422.3 221.7 403.5 240.5
11 424 358.3 65.7 451.6 27.6
12 196 407.3 211.3 446.1 250.1
pronostico 13 421.3 1816.7 396.0 2093.6
14 Promedio 201.9 190.3
15 Suma 1816.7 2093.6

Bimestre Unidad A Unidad B Unidad C

1 EF2007 550 425 400
2 MA2007 500 500 550
3 MJ2007 650 600 350
4 JA2007 600 700 250
5 SO2007 900 800 550
 6 ND2007 700 900 550
7 EF2008 850 1050 400
8 MA2008 800 1200 350
9 MJ2008 950 1350 600
10 JA2008 900 1550 750
11 SO2008 1200 1800 500
12 ND2008 1000 2000 400
13 EF2009 1150 2300 650
14 MA2009 1100 2650 850
15 MJ2009 1250 3000 600
16 JA2009 1200 3500 450
17 SO2009 1500 4000 700
18 ND2009

0.2

Suavizacion
Promedio
Bimestre Unidad A Error (EMA) exponencial
Movil (k=3)
(alpha=0.2)

1 550 550.0
2 500 550.0
3 650 540.0
4 600 566.7 33.3 562.0
5 900 583.3 316.7 569.6
6 700 716.7 16.7 635.7
7 850 733.3 116.7 648.5
8 800 816.7 16.7 688.8
9 950 783.3 166.7 711.1
10 900 866.7 33.3 758.9
11 1200 883.3 316.7 787.1
12 1000 1016.7 16.7 869.7
13 1150 1033.3 116.7 895.7
14 1100 1116.7 16.7 946.6
15 1250 1083.3 166.7 977.3
16 1200 1166.7 33.3 1031.8
17 1500 1183.3 316.7 1065.5
pronostico 18 1316.7 1152.4
Promedio 120.2
Suma 1683.3
 0.2

Suavizacion
Promedio
Bimestre Unidad B Error (EMA) exponencial
Movil (k=3)
(alpha=0.2)

1 425 425.0
2 500 425.0
3 600 440.0
4 700 508.3 191.7 472.0
5 800 600.0 200.0 517.6
6 900 700.0 200.0 574.1
7 1050 800.0 250.0 639.3
8 1200 916.7 283.3 721.4
9 1350 1050.0 300.0 817.1
10 1550 1200.0 350.0 923.7
11 1800 1366.7 433.3 1049.0
12 2000 1566.7 433.3 1199.2
13 2300 1783.3 516.7 1359.3
14 2650 2033.3 616.7 1547.5
15 3000 2316.7 683.3 1768.0
16 3500 2650.0 850.0 2014.4
17 4000 3050.0 950.0 2311.5
pronostico 18 3500.0 2649.2
Promedio 447.0
Suma 6258.3

0.2

Suavizacion
Promedio
Bimestre Unidad C Error (EMA) exponencial
Movil (k=3)
(alpha=0.2)

1 400 400.0
2 550 400.0
3 350 430.0
4 250 433.3 183.3 414.0
5 550 383.3 166.7 381.2
6 550 383.3 166.7 415.0
7 400 450.0 50.0 442.0
8 350 500.0 150.0 433.6
9 600 433.3 166.7 416.9
 10 750 450.0 300.0 453.5
11 500 566.7 66.7 512.8
12 400 616.7 216.7 510.2
13 650 550.0 100.0 488.2
14 850 516.7 333.3 520.5
15 600 633.3 33.3 586.4
16 450 700.0 250.0 589.2
17 700 633.3 66.7 561.3
pronostico 18 583.3 589.1
Promedio 160.7
Suma 2250
 Y=a+bX Y=460.95-7.26*X
a 461.0
Y=a+bX b -7.26

Error
Regresion
(EMA)

453.7 70.3
446.4 66.4
439.2 189.2
431.9 0.1
424.6 101.4
417.4 95.4
410.1 425.9
402.9 125.9
395.6 241.6
388.3 255.7
381.1 42.9
373.8 177.8
366.5 1792.5
359.3 149.4
352.0 1792.5
 Y=a+bX
Interseccion a 459.6
Pendiente b 52.2

Error Error
Regresion
(EMA) (EMA)

511.8 38.2
50.0 564.0 64.0
110.0 616.2 33.8
38.0 668.4 68.4
330.4 720.6 179.4
64.3 772.8 72.8
201.5 825.0 25.0
111.2 877.2 77.2
238.9 929.4 20.6
141.1 981.6 81.6
412.9 1033.8 166.2
130.3 1086.0 86.0
254.3 1138.2 11.8
153.4 1190.4 90.4
272.7 1242.6 7.4
168.2 1294.9 94.9
434.5 1347.1 152.9
1399.3
194.5 74.7
3111.8 1270.6

a -206.6
 b 208.1

Error Error
Regresion
(EMA) (EMA)

1.5 423.5
75.0 209.6 290.4
160.0 417.6 182.4
228.0 625.7 74.3
282.4 833.8 33.8
325.9 1041.9 141.9
410.7 1250.0 200.0
478.6 1458.1 258.1
532.9 1666.2 316.2
626.3 1874.3 324.3
751.0 2082.4 282.4
800.8 2290.4 290.4
940.7 2498.5 198.5
1102.5 2706.6 56.6
1232.0 2914.7 85.3
1485.6 3122.8 377.2
1688.5 3330.9 669.1
3539.0
695.1 247.3
11121.0 4204.4

a 374.6
b 16.5

Error Error
Regresion
(EMA) (EMA)

391.2 8.8
150.0 407.7 142.3
80.0 424.3 74.3
164.0 440.8 190.8
168.8 457.4 92.6
135.0 473.9 76.1
42.0 490.4 90.4
83.6 507.0 157.0
183.1 523.5 76.5
296.5 540.1 209.9
12.8 556.6 56.6
110.2 573.2 173.2
161.8 589.7 60.3
329.5 606.3 243.8
13.6 622.8 22.8
139.2 639.3 189.3
138.7 655.9 44.1
672.4
138.0 112.3
2208.7 1908.8
 Trimestres
Años
1 2 3 4
2006 51.6 88.8 61.4 53.2
2007 51.6 137 61.6 53.4
2008 49.8 185.2 108.3 118.7
2009 86 158.4 107.1 92.5
2010 84.8 149.8 101.1 88.6
2011 68.7 136.8 94.2 82.3
2012 71.6 136.1 92.4 82.5
2013 70.7

Suavizacion
Promedio
Años 1 Error (EMA) exponencial Error (EMA)
movil (k=2)
(alpha=0.7)
2006 51.6 51.6
2007 51.6 51.6 0.0
2008 49.8 51.6 1.8 51.6 1.8
2009 86 50.7 35.3 50.3 35.7
2010 84.8 67.9 16.9 75.3 9.5
2011 68.7 85.4 16.7 82.0 13.3
2012 71.6 76.75 5.15 72.7 1.1
2013 70.7 70.15 0.55 71.9 1.2
2014 SUMA 76.4 62.5
2015 PROMEDIO 12.73 8.9
2016
 Suavizacion
Promedio
Años 2 Error (EMA) exponencial Error (EMA)
movil (k=2)
(alpha=0.7)
2006 88.8 88.8
2007 137 88.8 48.2
2008 185.2 112.9 72.3 122.5 62.7
2009 158.4 161.1 2.7 166.4 8.0
2010 149.8 171.8 22 160.8 11.0
2011 136.8 154.1 17.3 153.1 16.3
2012 136.1 143.3 7.2 141.7 5.6
2013
2014 SUMA 121.5 151.8
2015 PROMEDIO 24.30 25.3
2016

Suavizacion
Años 3 Promedio Error (EMA) exponencial Error (EMA)
movil (k=2)
(alpha=0.7)
2006 61.4 61.4
2007 61.6 61.4 0.2
2008 108.3 61.5 46.8 61.5 46.8
2009 107.1 84.95 22.15 94.3 12.8
2010 101.1 107.7 6.6 103.3 2.2
2011 94.2 104.1 9.9 101.7 7.5
2012 92.4 97.65 5.25 96.5 4.1
2013
2014 SUMA 90.7 73.5
2015 PROMEDIO 18.14 12.3
2016

Suavizacion
Promedio
Años 4 Error (EMA) exponencial Error (EMA)
movil (k=2)
(alpha=0.7)
2006 53.2 53.2
2007 53.4 53.2 0.2
2008 118.7 53.3 65.4 53.3 65.4
2009 92.5 86.05 6.45 99.1 6.6
2010 88.6 105.6 17 94.5 5.9
2011 82.3 90.55 8.25 90.4 8.1
2012 82.5 85.45 2.95 84.7 2.2
2013
2014 SUMA 100.05 88.3
2015 PROMEDIO 20.01 14.7
2016
Y=a+bX
a= -6851.57
b= 3.44

Suavizacion exponencial
Regresion Error (EMA)
(alpha=0.1)

54.8 3.2 51.6

58.2 6.6 51.6
61.7 11.9 51.6
65.1 20.9 51.4
68.6 16.2 54.9
72.0 3.3 57.9
75.5 3.9 59.0
78.9 8.2 60.2
82.3 74.2
85.8 9.3
89.2
a= -7470.95
b= 3.79

Suavizacion exponencial
Regresion Error (EMA)
(alpha=0.1)

54.8 34.0 88.8

58.2 78.8 88.8
61.7 123.5 93.6
65.1 93.3 102.8
68.6 81.2 108.3
72.0 64.8 112.5
75.5 60.6 114.9
78.9 78.9
82.3 615.1
85.8 76.9
89.2

a= -10744.81
b= 5.39

Regresion Error (EMA) Suavizacion exponencial

(alpha=0.1)

54.8 6.6 61.4

58.2 3.4 61.4
61.7 46.6 61.4
65.1 42.0 66.1
68.6 32.5 70.2
72.0 22.2 73.3
75.5 16.9 75.4
78.9 78.9
82.3 249.1
85.8 31.1
89.2

a= -8212.70
b= 4.13

Suavizacion exponencial
Regresion Error (EMA)
(alpha=0.1)
54.8 1.6 53.2
58.2 4.8 53.2
61.7 57.0 53.2
65.1 27.4 59.8
68.6 20.0 63.0
72.0 10.3 65.6
75.5 7.0 67.3
78.9 78.9
82.3 207.1
85.8 25.9
89.2
 Suavizacion
Demanda Promedio Error
Mes Error (EMA) exponencial
(unidades) Movil (k=4) (EMA)
(alpha=0.25)
1 66 66.00
2 73 66.00 7.0
3 103 67.75 35.3
4 60 76.56 16.6
5 81 75.5 5.5 72.42 8.6
6 87 79.25 7.8 74.57 12.4
7 73 82.75 9.8 77.67 4.7
8 90 75.25 14.8 76.51 13.5
9 78 82.75 4.8 79.88 1.9
10 87 82 5.0 79.41 7.6
11 99 82 17.0 81.31 17.7
12 72 88.5 16.5 85.73 13.7
13
SUMA 81.0 138.9
PROMEDIO 10.1 12.6

Y=a+Bx
a= 74.14
b= 1.02
 Error
Regresion
(EMA)

141.3 75.29
148.4 75.41
178.9 75.94
135.2 75.19
156.6 75.55
162.7 75.66
148.4 75.41
165.7 75.71
153.5 75.50
162.7 75.66
174.9 75.87
147.4 75.40
87.4
906.6
75.5