Theme #9: The post-WWII period was an age After the War

fraught with nuclear proliferation, doomsday
anxieties, and the threat of Armageddon. Explain
how the Cold War began, evolved, and ended,
and what can be done to continue survival in the
post-Cold War, but still nuclear, future.
“Communist Aggression” vs. “Capitalist Encirclement”
U.S.S.R. a greater threat than ___________________
Both sides wanted “____________________”
-- for economic security, for a military buffer

Roots of East-West Distrust Defining Ideology

When the Roman Empire split in _______ AD (CE)
-- George Kennan’s “Long Telegram” (1946)
-- Truman’s “Get Tough” policy: “…scare the hell out of
the American people”
-- “Domino Theory” began with Greece, then spread to
Korea, Vietnam, Caribbean
-- _______________________________

pars Occidentis pars Orientis
became the so-called _____________________
When the Catholic Church split in ________ AD (CE)
(Western) Roman Catholic vs. (Eastern) Greek Orthodox
then came the rise of ___________________
Points of Conflict
Marshall Plan: “empire by invitation” (1947)
Prague Winter (1948)
Berlin ______________ vs. Berlin ____________ (1948)
NATO vs. Warsaw Pact (1949)
Soviet Atomic Bomb (1949) vs. U.S. Hydrogen Bomb
(1952), followed by Soviets (1953)

_________________-Russian imperial competition

Communist victory in Chinese Civil War (‘49)
Western “hysteria” toward Communism Korean Civil War (1950)
Korean War (1950-53)
American involvement in the _________________
CIA coup in ______________ (1953)
U.S.S.R. left to rebuild on its own after WWI CIA coup in Guatemala (1954)

World War II
U.S.S.R. felt it “carried the burden” Chinese – Taiwanese Quasi-War (1955)
-- Fought for 5 years alone; __________ “won the war”
-- Britain more interested in recouping their “empire” Hungarian Revolution (1956)
-- America not wanting to be premature in opening _____________________ (1957) vs. NASA (1958)
a 2-front war U-2 shot down (1960)
________________________ (1961)
World War II Berlin Wall (1961)
Hiroshima - Nagasaki
-- partial justification to scare USSR
-- Truman: “If it explodes, as I think it will, I’ll certainly
have a hammer on those boys.”
Yuri Gagarin (1961) vs. John Glenn (1962) How did we avoid Armageddon?
Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) MAD -- “______________________________________”
Vietnam War (1965, 1949-73) --Nuclear War only winnable in a Phyrric sense
Prague Spring (1968) Mikhail Gorbachev:
-- Glasnost -- Perestroika -- the Wall came down
Soviet Invasion of _________________________ (1979)
American Boycott of Moscow Olympics (1980)
Soviet Union went bankrupt
-- chronically weak economy
-- war in Afghanistan
NSD-13: ________________________________ (1981) -- “Star Wars” spending
S.D.I., or Star Wars (1983)
Reagan Doctrine (1983): USSR is the "______________"
U.S. Invasion of Grenada (1983) New Threats in the 21st Century:
Collapse of the Soviet Union
CIA intervention in Nicaragua (1983)
-- Russia PLUS Belarus, Kazakhstan, _____________
-- 1 million unemployed scientists, engineers
-- 30,000 warheads and tactical nukes
Vietnam 100s are missing…
-- Started as a revolution against the ________ (1945) 1000s of tons of reactor-grade material
-- Ho Chi Minh rebuffed by Truman '47, Eisenhower '53 -- US-Russian “Project ___________________”
-- Began propping up _____________ (1949)
-- French forces withdraw (1954), U.S. supports Ngo
Dinh Diem Silent Partners
India
-- Gradual increase in “___________” to 16,000 (1963)
-- Conducted an underground test in 1974
-- Gulf of _______________ Resolution (1964) -- Suspected capable of 80-100 weapons
-- has IRBMs (___________ miles), maybe ICBMs
Pakistan
-- Troops increased to 75,000 (1965), 275,000 (1966), -- Suspected capable of 90-110 weapons
485,000 (1967), 543,000 (1969) -- has SRBMs (__________ miles), maybe IRBMs
-- Rolling Thunder (1966) bombings in South, North,
Cambodia, Laos
-- ___________________________ (1968) __________________ -- Surely capable, unknown
-- Bombing of Laos (1969), Invasion of Cambodia (1970) numbers (~80?), has 80+ U.S. supplied IRBMs
-- Firebombing of Hanoi (1972) South Africa
-- Arsenal allegedly dismantled in 1989 (and sold to
-- Cease Fire (1973)
Israel)

Vietnam: a Colonial War?

-- US won every major battle.
-- “kill ratio” was about ___:1 (or ___:1 including civilians)
-- despite technology, we were unable to hold territory
-- could not win civilian “hearts and minds”
-- opponents’ willingness to _____________________
Wannabes (a.k.a. the “Axis of Evil”)
Iraq
-- In 2003 NIE, acquiring nuclear & other WMDs
______________________________________________
North Korea
-- In 2004 conducted 1st (failed) underground test
-- Could be capable within 2 years (2005 NIE)
_______________________________________
_______________________________________

Iran -- 2003 NIE, had the technology and materials,

probably capable within 2 years
-- 2007 NIE – ________________________________
-- 2017 NIE – ________________________________
-- “Enriched Uranium” -- <1%, 3-4%, >85% (~2016)
40+ countries have the means (NPT)
(anti-U.S.) Terrorists
-- 2003 NIE, est. at 20,000
-- _____________ had been neutralized through 2015
-- 2017 NIE estimated at ______________

Old Threats: Russian republics, China

“Weapons shield” (Reagan’s “Star Wars”)
-- Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI)
-- estimated cost is $_________+ trillion
-- most optimistic projections: only _______% effective
“____________________________________”
-- remove some vital element
-- everyone OR no one