Simulation II : ‘‘Shale Gas II – Ethane at

8-5-2021 Maximum Capacity Globally’’ (Unreal)

(Mass transfer ll)

MEMBERS:
Laura Jimena Camargo.
Gabriela García Rojas.
Juan Manuel Leon.
Sara Valentina Monge.
TEACHER:
Juan Camilo Cely.

YEAR:2021
In this project, the projection of the main raw materials that will be used by the
Chemical Industry will be announced, more specifically in the Petrochemical area,
which has been directly affected by the production (cracking) of said raw materials
and the Effects that such activity generates, be they environmental, energy,
economic and social.
The objective of our work is to inform how the petrochemical industry will evolve
from 2010 to 2050, following a series of megatrends aimed at reducing greenhouse
gases and, in turn, CO2 emissions.

In the first place, it is necessary to know more about the petrochemical industry in
order to understand the topic that is going to be developed later.

PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY:

The petrochemical industry is responsible for transforming natural gas and some
petroleum derivatives into raw materials, which are the basis of the main
production chains. It should be noted that the main production chains are:
 Methane, which is obtained from natural gas.
 Ethane which is obtained from light olefins.
 Gasoline obtained from different aromatics.

Figure 1. Main applications of the petrochemical industry.

The petrochemical industry is a fundamental area for the growth and development of
important industrial chains such as textiles, automobiles, energy, electronics, construction;
the polymer industry; that of food; that of fertilizers; both the pharmaceutical and chemical
industries, among others.

MAIN PRODUCTS:
Ammonia:Produced from natural gas using the Haber Bosch process.

Methanol:It is synthesized from natural gas using the Lurgi process.

Ethylene: It is obtained from the pyrolysis of ethane using the Lummus process.

Vinyl chloride:Produced from ethylene and chlorine, by BF Goodrich's

oxychlorination.

Low-density polyethylene:Produced by the polymerization of ethylene, by means

of high pressure ICI.

Linear Low Density Polyethylene:Through univation technology.

High density polyethylene:

Propylene:Produced by the pyrolysis of propane.

Benzene, Toluene, Xylene and Otherxylene:They are obtained by reforming

naphthas.

Paraxylene:It is obtained through the isomerization and crystallization of xylenes.

Styrene:Produced from ethylene and benzene using the Monsanto-Lummus

catalytic process.

The petrochemical industry contains three important segments: naphtha and

diesel, renewable and non-renewable raw materials, based on fossil fuels, and
gas, where its raw materials are based on ethane, propane and butane.

On the other hand, there are three dynamics that will favor raw materials for the
petrochemical industry. First, the massive growth of products that will increase the
demand for all kinds of raw materials. Second, the discovery of the large reserves
of shale gas that will lead to an impact on the profitability and emissions of the PQ
industry, which will lead to a change in the raw material mix in the industry.

It should be noted that shale gas is natural gas trapped in rock sediments
abundant in shale and other organic materials that can exist on the same plate with
oil and other hydrocarbons.

Third, the need to face climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in
the world, which leads to a decrease in the use of raw materials, while accelerating
the transition to cleaner raw materials.
BAU SCENARIO FOR RAW MATERIALS BY 2050

To understand this part of the analysis, it is necessary to know what the BAU
scenario is. The BAU scenario is an expression that is frequently used to refer to
the economic and productive systems of different countries and economies (BRIC,
REST, ADV).

According to this scenario, the total demand for raw materials for the year 2050
could grow by 407%, going from 119 Mt in 2010 to 605 Mt in 2050.

The demand for naphtha and diesel could reach 341 Mt in 2050, which would
represent almost three times more than the total demand for raw materials in 2010.
On the other hand, the demand for butane, propane and others are 81 Mt for this
same year. In the case of ethane, it is expected to have a demand of 182 Mt

According to this scenario, the BRICS, which are the following countries: Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa, which are considered the most advanced
countries among the countries with emerging economies, will have more than 75%
of the raw material based on naphtha. and diesel, with Brazil and India being the
main consumers of naphtha. From the above, it can be said that the use of
naphtha and diesel over the total raw material worldwide will go from 53% in 2010
to 56% in 2050.

It is important to know that this scenario was based on a mix of raw materials
estimated for 2010, for the different economies and also for the projected increase
in demand for petrochemicals.

GLOBAL MEGANTENCIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON RAW MATERIALS:

The megatrends directly affect the potential of the petrochemical industry, where
climate change is the most relevant megatrend since it implies sustainable
development and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and CO2 emissions,
the latter reducing them by 12,000 gp / day in 2010 at 4000 gp / day in 2050.

An important fact is that the reduction of greenhouse gases will drive the industry
to maximize its production and at the same time create new products and solutions
that help other industries and society to reduce emissions.

The energy megatrend is another of the most important, since it is linked to climate
change and economic growth that will allow the change from existing energies
based on crude oil (fossil fuels) to energy sources with reduced emissions. It
should be noted that more than 12% of the world's daily energy consumption
comes from crude oil.

A third megatrend is the economic one, where rising costs in the coming decades
will move the economy from $ 75 trillion in 2010 to $ 280 trillion by 2050. This will
generate massive growth for the chemical industry. Finally, the last megatrend
corresponds to the social aspect, helping the growth of pharmaceutical, consumer
and crop protection products.

GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION:

The need to reduce greenhouse emissions worldwide will force the petrochemical
industry to reduce the use of feedstock and to change its current mixture of
naphtha and diesel to a gas-based feedstock within the steam cracker.

According to the SRI (Internal Revenue Service) consultancy, if all the CO2
emissions from the steam cracker are assigned to ethylene, which is the main
product, ethane could generate up to 30% savings in CO2 emissions compared to
naphtha and diesel. by producing a ton of ethylene, generating great value in the
market.

It is important to see the impact that different raw materials could have on steam
cracker emissions and how these would be affected to reduce emissions.

SIMULATIONS:

As previously stated, the industry will address the increase in the demand for shale
gas worldwide, promoting the use of gas-based raw materials, so that two
simulations were proposed, which offer an overview of the possible quantity of
demand for raw materials.

These simulations make a very broad and somewhat inexact approximation from
the chemical point of view since the different raw materials will have different yields
of ethylene and monomers, so a constant yield is assumed, which is chemically
incorrect, however the interest falls in the potential demand for ethane, so if more
shale gas is available, the simulation meets the stipulated parameters.

1. SIMULATION "SHALE GAS I -ETHANE + 20% GLOBALLY":

In the first simulation, it is said that gas feedstock increases by 20% in all countries
except Canada and the US, since more than 80% of their feedstock is gas-based.
In the case of Canada, in 2010 92% of raw materials were gas-based, so an
increase is not expected in 2050. For the United States, there will be an increase of
7% going from a 85% in 2010 to 92% by 2050.

Figure 1 shows a progressive increase in ethane (gas) over the course of 40 years
as a raw material in the petrochemical industry, followed by the use of naphtha and
diesel with a difference of approximately 60,000 tons with respect to ethane.
On the other hand, in figure 2 it is evident that the BRIC has not ventured into the
use of gas-based raw materials (ethane), which is why they continue to make
extensive use of mixtures composed of naphtha and diesel, which defines the
contribution to the economy and the reduction of emissions, preventing its
contribution to future industry. In the case of countries such as Canada, Japan, the
United States and the European Union, it is evident that they are more advanced
because they have entered gas-based raw materials.

2. SIMULATION "SHALE GAS II - ETHANE AT MAXIMUM CAPACITY

GLOBALLY '- (UNREAL):

In this second simulation, a more radical and extreme situation will be presented,
completely unattainable and unrealistic due to the short period of time, in which the
petrochemical industry will make the most of shale gas reserves worldwide, for
greater competitiveness and making it potential for a significant decrease in
greenhouse effect emissions while scaling the industry to a higher level of gas-
based feedstock with 92% ace and 8% naphtha and diesel. It should be noted that
the massive use of other alternative raw materials is not contemplated, due to a
poorer economy.

However, this scenario can be valuable from two points of view. In the first place, it
serves to estimate how much ethane would be available in 2050 if the
petrochemical industry decides to adopt shale gas and gas as feedstock and, in
turn, see how much naphtha and diesel will be released. On the other hand, it will
be possible to observe the possible benefits and costs in the industry to reduce
CO2 emissions, while naphtha and diesel are drastically reduced compared to
ethane, additionally it is possible to demonstrate the potential impact of these
massive changes in the co- products from cracking and related industries.

Under the simulation, it can be seen in figure 3 that ethane will become the largest
raw material in the industry with almost 500 Mt, and propane and butane will reach
larger quantities than naphtha and diesel. Although the petrochemical industry
could double in 2050, the total demand for naphtha and diesel could be only 48 Mt,
so big changes could be achieved. According to figure 3, the BRICs show a
significant increase in the use of ethane, drastically reducing the use of naphtha
and diesel as raw materials. In turn, it can be said that they will be part of the
economy based on gas-based raw materials and will contribute to the reduction of
greenhouse gases and CO2 emissions.

It is evident that in Figure 4 there is an exponential increase in the use of ethane as

a raw material and in turn little increase in butane and propane with respect to
ethane, which highlights the implementation of gas-based raw materials, making
each time find greater reduction in the use of gasoline and diesel as raw materials,
favoring megatrends.
FACTORS THAT ACCELERATE CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL MIX OF ENERGY
AND RAW MATERIALS:

1. Rapid development of shale gas in the US and its availability worldwide.

2. Ability to improve the profitability of the cracker.
3. Reduce emissions.
4. Need to address climate change.

In the petrochemical world, the increase in gas-based raw materials meets the
need for companies to remain competitive and at the same time plausible and
logical.

TRANSITION TO BIOLOGICAL RAW MATERIALS:

A possible long-term alternative is the incursion of biological raw materials which

will take longer than shale gas but their growth will be solid and continuous. In turn,
it will have a bright future, since the global need of the chemical industry is to
reduce its own emissions under the assumption that the cost of CO2 emissions will
be part of the price and cost of chemical production of the biological raw material. .