Earthquake Resistant Design

Seismic Hazard Analysis

(PSHA)
Lecture 6

M.Sc in Earthquake Engineering

Institute of Engineering
 Recurrence Models
- The probability that a given SIZE of an
earthquake occurs given that an earthquake
larger than a certain minimum magnitude
occurs
- The probability that an earthquake greater than
a given size will occur in a given time interval
– Must make additional assumptions regarding
the probability model (typically, assume a
Poisson model)
- Both very important for PSHA
Temporal Distribution of Earthquakes
BASIC ASSUMPTION
Earthquake occur randomly with time
– Inconsistent with elastic rebound theory
– Tends to be true over large time spans
– Allows for the use of simple probability models

POISSON MODEL
Describes number of occurrences of a particular event
during a given time interval. Assumes:
– Occurrence of the event in one time interval is independent of
its occurrence in another time interval
– Probability of occurrence of an event in a VERY SHORT time
interval is proportional to the length of the interval
– The probability of more than one occurrence during a very
short time interval is negligible
 POISSON MODEL
 mt
P[ N  1]  1  e
m = mean annual rate of exceedance
t = time in years
Read: Probability of more than one occurrence of an
earthquake of magnitude larger than m in a time interval t
Example:
An earthquake of M > 8 in the San Andreas fault has a return period of
with a 300 yr return period (studies vary between 100 and 500)
m = 1/300 = .0033
P[N>1 in 10 years] = 1 – exp(-.0033*10) = 3.2 %
P[N>1 in 100 years] = 1 – exp(-.0033*100) = 28 %
P[N>1 in 300 years] = 63 %
Guttenberg-Richer Recurrence Law

FM m   1  e    m  mo 

f M m   e   m  mo  = 2.303 b
mo = minimum earthquake magnitude
Bounded Guttenberg-Richter Recurrence Law

1  e   m  mo 
FM m   P[ M  m | mo  M  mmax ] 
1  e   mmax  mo 

e   mm 
f M m  
o

1  e   mmax  mo 