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NRP 15th DEC - PPT
NRP 15th DEC - PPT
Government of India
Study Objective
To provide an overall long term rail development plan
Passenger and Freight Demand Forecast yearly till 2030 and
for 10 year period for 2041 & 2051
Assessment of Present and Future Modal Share of Railways;
To study the rail infrastructure deficiencies
Future Infrastructure requirements-Fixed and Rolling Stock,
considering the demand forecast and its implication on congested
network;
Identifications of Options, Evaluation and Prioritization of
projects;
Assessment of Funding Requirements and Financing Strategies
2
Capacity ahead of Demand – Target Peak
not averages.
Target
Capacity
Pushing the capacity envelope will result in
• Accommodating peak level fluctuations
• Addressing constant demand growth
Peak • Increase efficiency to increase profitability
Demand
Capacity/Loadings
Unmet
Demand Available Capacity
Average Loading
Potential loss in Lean Demand – Idling assets
Modal Share
Target 45% Modal Share–
VISION 2024 as a subset of
NATIONAL RAIL PLAN
45% Mode
Tonnnes
Share
Growth Slope
NATIONAL RAIL
PLAN
VISION 2024
7
Existing Rail Network on GIS Platform
Connectivity Inland
Tourist
to Class I, II, Waterways
Areas
III towns
8
Existing Rail Network
9
Total Freight Ecosystem – Road + Rail
Non
Volume
Ferrous Commodity
(MT)
Percent
Conventional Goods
Non Ferrous
61 1.3%
Metals
Fertiliser 61 1.3%
41.6 %
Misc. Foodgrains 287 6.1%
43 %
OUTCOMES
Base Year
Commodity wise Projections
Commodity wise Scenario wise Commodity wise
Projections in validated
Traffic against relevant Projections for Origination/Desti
National Freight production/ benchmarks National nation patterns
Ecosystem for sales/ from other Freight for various
various Horizon throughput plus Ministries and Ecosystem Horizon years
Years imports) by public agencies 11
Mode
Freight Demand Forecast
Consolidated Volume Projections (Million Tons)
18,000
16,000 15,583
14,000
11,780
12,000
10,000
8,220
8,000
6,366
6,000
4,709
4,000
2,000
0
2019 2026 2031 2041 2051
BOG Cement Coal Container Fertilizer Foodgrain Iron Ore Pig Iron POL Steel RM Total 12
Existing Rail Freight Share
In 2018-19, Railways carried 1221.5 (27%) of Total Freight Generated
Coastal IWT Pipeline
Shipping 2% 2%
5%
Modes Tonnes (Millions) Share (%) Rail
Rail 1221.5 27% 27%
Road 2911.7 64%
Coastal Shipping 234 5%
IWT 72 2%
Pipeline 84 2%
Road
TOTAL 4523.2 100% 64%
Parameter;
Travel time Both are inversely Transport
/ average related to Modal Cost
- Difference in Transit Time speed Share
- Difference in Transit Cost 24
25 kmph % BAU
31
% 30% less
25 kmph
than BAU
40
Utility Equation is derived in the form of, 50 kmph %* BAU
Ua = 𝛼+𝛽×𝛿𝑇𝑇+𝛾×𝛿𝑇𝐶
Where, 44
Ua = Utility Equation % 30% less
50 kmph
than BAU
α = Constant
β = Coefficient of Difference of Travel
Time
γ = Coefficient of Difference of Travel
Cost
δTT = Difference of Travel Time
δTC = Difference of Travel Cost
𝑃 (𝑅𝑎𝑖𝑙)=𝑒^𝜆Ua /(1+𝑒^𝜆Ua )
where,
λ = Calibration factor 14
Optimum Modal Mix – Scenario Building
Scenario Building
Logit Model is based on 2 major parameters which are Time and Cost.
1. Business as Usual (BAU):
Considering implementation of Project Bharat Mala and excluding
speed enhancement, EDFC and WDFC
Iron Ore
12%
30% 14% 10% Cement 20
BOG 16%
21% 18
23%
21%
20
20%
16%
24
14%
12% 12% 20
9% 10%
10% 9% 9%
10% 51
7% 6%
5% 4%4%4% 5% 5%5%
4% 3% 4%4% 3%
2% 2% 2%
0%
Coal Iron Ore Cement BOG Container Fertilizer Foodgrain POL Pig Iron Steel RM
17
Passenger Demand Forecast
Population and Workforce Forecast
States 2021 2031 2041 2051
Population (Millions) 1380.54 1494.18 1561.38 1632.97
Workforce (Millions) 540.92 619.46 702.46 780.44
Estimated Passenger Growth Rates
Projected Projected CAGR Projected
Projected CAGR
Years Population (%) CAGR (%) Grand Total
(%) LDAC
CAGR (%) LDNA Suburban
2021-26 0.79% 8.50% 3.44% 1.17% 2.50%
2026-31 0.80% 9.02% 3.48% 1.07% 2.62%
2031-41 0.44% 6.47% 3.00% 0.85% 2.34%
2041-51 0.45% 5.43% 2.81% 0.64% 2.28%
Rail Passenger Forecast
Categories 2018 2021 2031 2041 2051
LDAC 154.03 252.23 586.42 1106.3 1887.78
LDNA 3,466.40 4538.54 6411.58 8687.69 11530.71
Total 3,620.43 4,790.77 6,998.00 9,793.99 13,418.49
Sub-Urban 4,459.38 4,665.84 5,215.54 5,676.21 6,050.13
Grand Total 8,079.81 9,456.61 12,213.54 15,470.20 19,468.62 18
Passenger Demand Forecast
Consolidated Passenger Projections (Million per year)
25000
19,469
Annual Passengers in Million
20000
15,470 6050
15000
12,214
5676
9,457
10000 5216
8,080
4666 11531
4459 8688
5000
6412
4539
3466
1106 1888
0 154 252 586
2018 2021 2031 2041 2051
Axis Title
20
Assignment Model Framework in CUBE
Base Year Rail Assignment on CUBE Voyager
SCENARIO
BUILDING
NETWORK
MODAL FREIGHT ASSESSMENT
SHARE ASSIGNMENT
TRAFFIC
GENERATION
TRAFFIC
PROJECTION
PROPOSALS
PASSENGER
ASSIGNMENT
NETWORK BUILDING
AND CALIBRATION
21
Existing Capacity Utilization
2026
Existing
Capacity
Existing
Utilization
0%-70% 48%
70%-100% 27%
>100% 25%
22
Capacity Utilization
2051
2031
Capacity
Existing
Utilization
0%-70% 24%
70%-100% 8%
>100% 68%
23
Passenger Train Passenger Train
Corridor 2041 Corridor 2051
Freight High Demand Freight High Demand
Corridors - 2024 Corridors - 2031
HDN Network
HD
N4
HD
N2
HDN Routes
No
HDN1 Delhi Howrah Main Route via ALD MGS Gaya
HDN1BGhaziabad- Moradabad
HDN1CDelhi-Rohtak- Bathinda- Suratgarh
HDN1DAndal-Pandubeshwar- Santhia
HD Howrah - Mumbai main route via Jalgaon, Nagpur,
HDN2
N7 Bilaspur
HDN2ABilaspur-Anuppur-Kota-Ruthiyai-Kota
HDN2BSurat-Jalgaon
HDN3 Delhi-Mumbai Main Route via Kota Ratlam
HDN3ADelhi-Rewari-Ajmer-Chittorgarh
HDN3BGandhidham-Bhildi-Palanpur and Bhildi - Samdari
HDN3CPanvel – Jasai – JNPT
HDN4 Delhi-Guwahati via Rosa-Gorakhpur-Kumedpur
Delhi-Chennai Main Route via BPL-NGP-BPQ-BZA-
HDN5
Gudur
HDN6 Howrah Chennai Main Route
HDN6AJSG-SBP-TIG-VZM
HDN7 Mumbai-Chennai main route
HDN7AGuntkal-Bellari-Hospet-Hubli-Londa-Vasco
29
HDN 1
Major Infrastructure
Proposals
• EDFC is proposed
from Ludhiana to
Sonnagar (year
2026) and Dankuni
(year 2031)
• ABS+TCAS+CTC
• East-West DFC -
2031
• HSR Corridor
Mumbai Pune Nagpur
Patna in 2051
• ABS+TCAS+CTC
Signaling is proposed
for entire corridor
• 6 Bypasses & 12
Flyovers Proposed
along the corridor
Doubling works
Double to Triple
588 588
Line
Triple to
337 337
Quadruple Line
Quadruple Line to
7 14
6 Lines
6 Lines to 8 Lines 2 4
• ABS+TCAS+CTC
• Enabling
infrastructure for
achieving a Speed
160 Kmph by 2031
• 3 Bypasses & 10
Flyovers Proposed
Doubling works
Double to Triple
637 637
Line
Double to
456 912
Quadruple Line
Triple to
978 978
Quadruple Line
Total 2070 2526
32
HDN 5
Major Infrastructure
Network
Configuration Conversion. Line KM
Km
33
HUN Network
Total Length
S.NO HUN Routes
(km)
HUN 1 Amrit Sagar Sampark Corridor 3,049
HUN
Bengal Arab Sagar Sampark 3,035
1
HUN 2
Corridor
HUN
Kathiawar Shivalik Sampark 1,685 5
HUN 3
Corridor HUN
4
HUN 4 Sagar Sutlej Sampark Corridor 1,529 HUN
6
HUN
Bundelkhand Tarai Sampark 2,151 3
HUN 5
Corridor HUN
2
Sagar Purvodaya Sampark 1,490
HUN 6
Corridor HUN HUN
Sagar Chambal Sampark 9 7
HUN 7 2,737
Corridor
Purv Paschim Deccan 1,501
HUN 8
Sampark Corridor HUN
Aravali Dakshin Sampark 8
HUN 9 2,803 HUN
Corridor 10
Satpura Coromandel Sampark
HUN 10 2,232
Corridor HUN
11
Konkan Malabar Sampark
HUN 11 1,134
Corridor
Total 23,347 34
HUN 1
Patha
nkot
Network KM Line KM
Conversio
n Tota
2024 2031 2041 2051 Total 202 2031 2041 2051
l
2L-3L 98 102 298 133 631 98 102 298 133 631
2L-4L 46 103 41 394 584 92 206 82 789 1168
3L-4L 43 19 193 183 437 43 19 193 183 437
4L-6L 0 0 0 40 40 0 0 0 80 80
Total 186 224 532 751 1693 232 327 573 1185 2317
Bhagal
pur
Jamui
Network km % Share
HUN 1
2024 2031 2041 2051 2026 2031 2041 2051
3. 0%-70% 2501 2784 1827 2098 68% 76% 50% 57%
2+ NRP 70%-100% 1147 774 1802 1573 31% 21% 49% 43%
Line 100%-
Upgradati 150% 23 113 42 0 1% 3% 1% 0%
on
Proposals >150% 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 35
HUN 2
Network KM Line KM
Conversion
2024 2031 2041 2051 Total 2024 2031 2041 2051 Total
2L-3L 0 184 500 273 957 0 184 500 273 957
2L-4L 0 0 227 0 227 0 0 454 0 454
3L-4L 0 0 16 0 16 0 0 16 0 16
Obra
Total 0 184 742 273 1199 0 184 969 273 1426 Dam
Jabalp
Existing 2026 2031 2041 2051 ur
Nandur
bar
1 Bypass is
proposed on
HUN 2
2384 km TCAS
signaling
provided
Network km % Share
HUN 2
2024 2031 2041 2051 2024 2031 2041 2051
3. 0%-70% 2317 2337 2364 1504 66% 67% 67% 43%
2+ NRP 70%-100% 787 1170 1143 1970 22% 33% 33% 56%
Line 100%-
Upgradati 127 0 0 33 4% 0% 0% 1%
150%
on
Proposals >150% 276 0 0 0 8% 0% 0% 0% 36
DFC Master Plan & Phasing
) Vijayawad
a)
New DFC Western East West
Corridor DFC DFC, 2,013
1,483 Km Km (Palghar
(Under to Dankuni
Constructi and EDFC
on) Connectors)
Eastern
DFC, 515
Km
(Sonnagar
to Dankuni)
37
HSR Master Plan & Phasing
Phasing 2026 2031 2041 2051
Length
508 2,521 1473 3485
(Km)
Delhi Varanasi
Mumbai Mumbai
Jammu via Ayodhya, Hyderabad
Ahmedabad Nagpur,
855 Km (As Bangalore,
Amritsar , 508 Km 789 Km
Chandiga per NIP also, 618 Km
(As per NIP (As per
rh Ayodhya (New)
also) NIP)
Delhi included)
Nagpur
Lucknow Varanasi to Mumbai
Varanasi,
Patna, 250 Hyderabad,
855 Km
Guwahati kms (New) 709 Km
Varanasi Patna
(New)
Patna
Patna to
Guwahati
Ahmedab Kolkata, 530
ad Kolkata 850 Km
Km (New)
Nagpur New HSR (New)
Corridor Delhi Udaipur
Delhi
Ahmedabad
Mumbai Chandigarh
886 Km
Hyderaba Amritsar,
(As per NIP
d 485 Km
also)
Amritsar -
Pathankot -
Jammu,
Chennai
190 Km
Mysor Bengalu (New)
e ru
Chennai to
Mysuru via
Bangalore,
462
38 Km
Rail Network Proposals –
Consolidated
39
Proposed Terminal Locations
Steel Domestic Multi Commodity
Container Clusters
Cement EXIM
Container
40
Terminals
Policy to attract investments & bring
efficiencies
Development of Upgradation of New common
new terminals – existing good user models
PFTs / ICDs / sheds/terminals
private sidings
02 05
Wagon ownership
should not be linked Haulage charge to not
with any license fee, as include cost of asset
private sector is already (wagons)
investing (locking demand)
03 Consistent haulage
discount to be
considered – to account
06 A streamlined,
automatic approval
process
for cost of ownership
42
IR initiatives
In resonance with NRP recommendations
toward improving transit and reducing cost
1 2 3
Transport
Pricing Related
Terminals Products and Ease
Concessions
of Business
• Terminal Access Charge • Empty flow Rating • Easing Trainload
Concessions • Long Term Contracts Benefits
• E-Drishti updation for • Short Lead, Long Lead • Easing conditions for
goods sheds and Round Trip Rates Mini Rakes
• Easing of Weighment • Removal of Busy Season • Electronic Registration
Conditions Surcharge of Demand
• Non-levy of Terminal • Commodity Discounts – • E-RR – Electronic
charges at some Flyash, Containers, More transmission of RRs
unloading points FAK commodities
• Easing conditions for
Advance Stacking
• Promoting Lifton/Liftoff
at CRTs for containers
• Allowing Multiple Co-
Users
43
Forecast of NTKM and Average Lead of Rail Traffic
44
Forecast of Total Locomotives Required
45
Forecast of Total Wagons Required
46
NRP – TARGETING 45% MODAL SHARE THROUGH CAPACITY
• CAPACITY AHEAD OF DEMAND ; ENABLE INCREASE IN FREIGHT TRAIN SPEED FROM 25KMPH TO
50KMPH
• REDUCE COST OF RAIL TRANSPORT BY 30% - ACROSS THE COST SPECTRUM
• INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUISNESS PLANNING ON SAME PLATFORM
• INSTITUTIONAL SETUP – CONSTANT UP DATING
• DATA POINTS – COMMODITY TO CUSTOMER MIGRATION
1 2 3 4
47
Thank
you
48
Jammu & Kashmir
Srinagar
Jammu
Pathankot Jn
Punjab
Chandigarh
Bathinda Jn
Uttarakhand
Suratgarh Jn
Haryana
Delhi
Delhi
Sikkim Makum Jn
Agra Gonda Jn
Jaipur Uttar Pradesh
Lucknow Gorakhpur Jn
Rajasthan Ajmer Jn Raninagar Jalpaiguri Jn
Jodhpur Gwalior Guwahati
Bihar Assam Nagaland
Patna
Meghalaya
Kota Mughal Sarai Jn
Gaya Jn
Manipur
Surat Raipur
Bhusawal Jn Nagpur Bhadrak
Chhattisgarh
Daman and Diu
Titlagarh Jn
Nashik Orissa
Aurangabad
Mumbai
Maharashtra
Pune
Vijayawada
Andhra Pradesh
Madgaon Jn Guntakal Jn
Goa
Karnataka
Puducherry
Chennai
Bangalore NUMBER OF AC TRAINS (2031)>=0
NUMBER OF AC TRAINS (2031)>6
NUMBER OF AC TRAINS (2031)>12
NUMBER OF AC TRAINS (2031)>18
Kannur
NUMBER OF AC TRAINS (2031)>24
NUMBER OF AC TRAINS (2031)>30
Kozhikode
Coimbatore
Tiruchirappalli
Tamil Nadu Andaman and Nicobar
Kerala
Kochi
Thiruvananthapuram