BUSINESS STATISTICS

ASSIGNMENT 1: Is India a Regional

Superpower

Submitted By:

Ankan Datta (P40112)

Abhilasha Mittal (P40110)

Jibran Sheikh (P40126)

Vaibhav Patel

(P40138)

Utsav Kapoor

(P40158)

1
1. Introduction:

1.1 Indian Sub-Continent

Indian Subcontinent, Geographically, is the peninsular region in south-central Asia delineated by

the Himalayas in the north, the Hindu Kush in the west, and the Arakanese in the east. This
region consists of 7 countries:
India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan.

It is largely a distinct entity in terms of culture, politics and geology.

Indian subcontinent is a natural physical landmass in South Asia, geologically the dry-land portion of
Indian Plate, which has been relatively isolated from the rest of Eurasia. Given the difficulty of passage
through the Himalayas, the sociocultural, religious and political interaction of the Indian subcontinent
has largely been through the valleys of Afghanistan in its northwest, the valleys of Manipur in its east,
and by maritime routes. More difficult but historically important interaction has also occurred through
passages pioneered by the Tibetans. These routes and interactions have led to spread of Buddhism out of
Indian subcontinent into other parts of Asia, while Islamic expansion arrived here through Afghanistan
and to its coasts through the maritime routes.
1.2 What is Regional Power?

Regional Power is defined as a state belonging to a geographically defined region, dominating this
region in economic and military terms, able to exercise hegemonic influence in the region and
considerable influence on the world scale, willing to make use of power resources and recognized or
even accepted as the regional leader by its neighbor.
According to The German Institute of Global and Area Studies, A regional power is a state:

 That is part of a region which is geographically, economically and political ideationally

delimited

 Which articulates the pretension of a leading position in the region (self-conception);

 Which influences in a significant way the geopolitical delimitation and the political ideational
construction of the region;
 Which displays the material (military, economic, demographic), organizational (political) and
ideological resources for a regional power projection;
 Which is economically, politically and culturally interconnected with the region;

 Which truly has great influence in regional affairs (activities and results);

 Which exerts this influence also (and more and more) by means of regional governance
structures;
 Which defines the regional security agenda in a significant way;

 Whose leading position in the region is recognized or at least respected by other states inside
and outside of the region, especially by other regional powers;

1.3 Indicators of Regional Power

There are various indicators which should be taken into account when we want to analyze whether a
country is a regional power or not.
Boundaries

• Which is the geographical reference region of the supposed regional power?

Indicators: official documents, press coverage, survey data etc.
• What are the economic boundaries of the region?
Indicators: trade and investment flows, border crossing.

• What are the political-ideational boundaries of the region?

 Indicators: membership in regional organizations, official documents, press coverage, survey data
etc.
Leadership pretension/claim

• Is there an articulated and documented claim for regional leadership?

Indicators: official documents, elite survey data in the supposed regional power.

Indicators: Perception of this claim in other countries in the region and outside of the region; official
documents, elite survey data, press coverage etc.

Delimitation

Does the putative regional power have a significant influence on the geopolitical delimitation and the
political-ideational construction of the region?
o Indicators: construction of regional organizations (inclusion/exclusion; strategic position of
regional power, process of negotiations)
o Indicators: official discourse of regional power, regional charters (influence of regional power)
Resources

• Does the putative regional power have sufficient economic power resources?
Indicators: GDP, GDP per capita, R/D as % GDP
• Does the putative regional power have sufficient military power resources?

Indicators: relative military power (strengths of the armed forces, equipment) in the region.

Indicators: power projection in the region (participation in international military missions, weapon
systems / projection capabilities).
Indicators: power projection outside the region (participation in international military missions,
weapon systems / projection capabilities).
• Does the putative regional power have sufficient demographic power resources?
Indicators: population, working age population, projection 2020.
• Does the putative regional power have sufficient ideological power resources?

Indicators: attraction in other countries (surveys, foreign students, diffusion of culture).

• Does the putative regional power have sufficient political-organizational power resources?
Indicator: stability of political institutions, consensus in political elite.
Regional Embeddedness

• Is the putative regional power economically interconnected?

Indicators: trade statistics (participation in regional trade, bilateral trade patterns), investment flows
(participation in regional investment, bilateral investment flows)
• Is the putative regional power politically interconnected?
Indicators: size of the embassies of the states in the region in the corresponding regional power,
influence in regional political organizations
• Is the putative regional power culturally interconnected?

Indicators: language training, foreign students, media, influence on cultural trends

Influence in regional affairs

• Does the putative regional power have great influence in regional affairs?

Indicators: Positions or influence over decisions in different regional policy areas. Influence over
regional governance structures
• Does the putative regional power have great influence over regional governance structures?
Indicators: Shape of regional organizations
Indicators: Positions and influence over decision in regional governance structures (examples).
Regional security agenda

• Does the putative regional power have great influence over the regional security agenda?
Indicators: Is there a regional security agenda (documents, organizations).
Indicators: Influence over regional agenda (documents, organizations).
Representation of regional interests in international forums

• Does the putative regional power represent regional interest in international forums?
Indicators: Negotiations in international organizations (document, press coverage);
Indicators: Agenda setting in international politics (forcing topics of regional interest).
2. Methodology Adopted

Firstly, data of different variables is collected for the countries to be studied from the various sources
such as “http://databank.worldbank.org”,” http://www.gapminder.org” etc.

Descriptive statistics approach is used to describe the basic features of the data in this study because it
provides simple summaries about the sample and the measures.

It gives researchers the ability to look at whatever they are studying in so many various aspects and can
provide a bigger overview as opposed to other forms of research. One of the main benefits of
descriptive research is that fact that it uses both quantitative and qualitative data in order to find the
solution to whatever is being studied. This in turn can help to describe and give an answer to certain
life experiences.

We have used Graphics analysis and basic statistical approach to analyse the data of different variables
of countries and findings are compared to conclude the result.
3. Variables

3.1 Economic Variables

1. GDP PPP- It is one of the primary indicators used to evaluate a country's economy and can be
calculated in market exchange terms and in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. A
country's GDP at PPP takes into consideration the relative costs of local goods and services produced
in a country valued at prices of the United States.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) compares how many goods and services an exchange-rate-adjusted unit
of money can purchase in different countries. Nominal GDP shows the total productive output of a
country, while PPP is an applied doctrine of the comparative value of money in different countries.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is measured by finding the values (in USD) of a basket of consumer
goods that are present in each country (such as pineapple juice, pencils, etc.). If that basket costs $100
in the US and $200 in the United Kingdom, then the purchasing power parity exchange rate is 1:2.

2.Human Capital Index- The index measures the amount of human capital that a child born today can
expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in the country
where she lives.

4. Foreign Exchange Reserve - Foreign Exchange Reserves are assets held by a central government or
other monetary authority, usually in various reserve currencies. The main purpose of holding foreign
 exchange reserves is to make international payments and hedge against exchange rate risks. It is
critical to support imports and exports, which are necessary to gain access to resources and to create
additional demand for goods and services. Without the ability to trade in different currencies,
companies' prospects would be limited and global economic growth would suffer.

3.2 Social Variables

1. Human Development Index - Human development index is a summary measure of average

achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable
and have a decent standard of living. The HDI was created to emphasize that people and their
capabilities should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country, not economic
growth alone.

The health dimension is assessed by life expectancy at birth, the education dimension is measured by
mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for
children of school entering age. The standard of living dimension is measured by gross national
income per capita. The HDI uses the logarithm of income, to reflect the diminishing importance of
income with increasing GNI. The scores for the three HDI dimension indices are then aggregated into
a composite index using geometric mean

2. Poverty- Poverty was first defined by the UN as anyone who earns less than $1 a day. This was
revised to $1.25 a day to reflect rising commodity prices.

3.3 Military Power

Military power potential consists in the resources that a nation-state can mobilize against other
nation-states for purposes of military deterrence, defence, and war.
3.4 Diplomacy or Soft Power Indicators

The ability to co-opt other states is called a ‘soft power’. The word co-opt here means ‘the ability of a nation to
structure a situation so that other nations develop preferences or define their interests in ways consistent with
one’s nation. This co-optive power emerges from soft power and immaterial sources such as ‘cultural and
ideological attraction as well as the rules and institutions of international regimes. As a result, the difference
between hard and soft power relies on their relative materiality as soft power is mostly based on intangibles
such as the power of example. Soft power is therefore the ability to modify other states’ preferences because of
their perception of you.
According to the former Union Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor, past classifications of
major power status were becoming archaic and that India had now become a great power mainly by the ‘power
of example’ or in other words because of its ‘soft power’. Tharoor’s contention is that today it is not the size of
the army or of the economy that matters (two dimensions where India has failed to compete with other great
powers like China or the US) but instead it was the country that told the ‘better story’ which would qualify as a
global player. To support this argument Tharoor had discussed components of India’s soft power as diverse as
films and Bollywood, yoga, ayurveda, political pluralism, religious diversity and openness to global
influences.
Since soft power is an intangible component of a state’s power, it is difficult to measure its actual impact. The
advantages of a hard power such as military and economic resources are that they can be measured and
compared and their direct effects are less palpable. It is easy for example to compare Indian and Chinese
military expenditures. It is impossible however to quantify the appeal of a country’s values, culture,
institutions or achievements, an appeal which is inherently subjective and therefore contested and fluctuating.
Today, alongside China, India offers one of the most dynamic alternatives to Western cultural values. India’s
film industry, popularly dubbed ‘Bollywood’, is probably the largest and farthest reaching medium for Indian
culture. It is today the world’s largest film industry, surpassing Hollywood with an annual output of over 1000
movies. Thanks to satellite TV and internet, Bollywood movies and Indian soap operas have reached a
growing global audience that has become increasingly familiar with Indian society and culture. Another one of
India’s most successful and long-lasting exports, yoga, is now practiced around the world as a form of
exercise, and Indian cuisine, with its distinctive use of spices, has become popular worldwide. More directly,
cricket has proved to be a strong soft power resource for India, with cricket diplomacy having notably positive
effects in reducing Indo-Pakistani tensions. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s meeting with
Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh during the 2011 world cup semi-final in India closely followed the
resumption of high-level diplomatic dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad after the 2008 Mumbai
attacks. On another level, the creation in 2008 of the rich and internationally-popular Indian Premier League
(IPL) has reinforced the narrative of India’s rise. Soft power is however a difficult resource to leverage, and
India’s political leadership and its diplomatic instrument have inconsistently capitalized upon these undoubted
soft power resources over the last decade. References to Indian culture, to its diaspora, to its political values
and to its economic development have mostly been rhetoric for image-polishing. It poses the question of
whether India has really tried to exploit its huge soft power potential.
Soft power has now become an active element of India’s diplomacy in parallel with the development of its
hard power resources. India has progressively understood that these two dimensions of power should not be
placed in opposition to one another, especially for an aspiring global power.
1. International organizations and Groupings – International groupings like ADB, ASEAN (as
dialogue partner), BIMSTEC, BRICS or G5(Grouping of 5 emerging countries), G-15, G-20, G-24,
G-77. These organizations help in gaining soft power on regional countries.
2. Digital Payments- NEFT, IMPS, UPI, NACH, card payments, Electronic Clearing Systems as well
as Forex and market clearing systems and also the decrease in the number of Debit cards will help
in gaining the soft power
 4. Analysis of Countries on Different Variables

4.1 GDP (PPP)

Years Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

2007 297.98 3.53 4292.69 43.51 648.09 137.05
2008 322.04 3.77 4511.26 47.07 671.94 148.03
2009 340.87 4.05 4903.03 49.58 696.23 154.43
2010 364.05 4.58 5381.66 52.57 715.66 168.76
2011 395.68 5.04 5782.04 55.50 750.69 186.76
2012 429.57 5.40 6214.47 59.27 791.92 207.75
2013 463.40 5.61 6727.35 62.80 841.25 218.58
2014 500.78 6.04 7362.57 67.82 897.23 233.76
2015 539.30 6.51 8036.33 70.83 949.73 248.09
2016 583.98 7.11 8787.92 72.02 1013.18 262.06
2017 638.43 7.58 9596.84 79.19 1091.29 276.17
2018 704.17 7.93 10498.47 86.07 1176.50 291.46
CAGR 7.430% 6.990% 7.737% 5.849% 5.094% 6.490%

Among the regional countries of the Indian subcontinent, GDP of India is almost 1740 times that of Maldives
and 9 times to that of Pakistan which indicate that India is biggest economy in the region in terms of GDP
(PPP).
4.2 Human Capital Index
Table 4.2
Learnin Fracti
Probabili Expect g- on of Hum
ty of ed Harmoniz adjuste kids Adult an
Ran
Country survival years ed Test d years under surviv Capit
k
up to 5 of Scores of 5 not al rate al
years School schooli stunte Index
ng d
China 0.99 13.2 456 9.7 0.92 0.92 0.67 46
Sri Lanka 0.99 13 400 8.3 0.83 0.87 0.58 74
Nepal 0.97 11.7 369 6.9 0.64 0.85 0.49 102
Banglade
0.97 11 368 6.5 0.64 0.87 0.48 106
sh
India 0.96 10.2 355 5.8 0.62 0.83 0.44 115
Pakistan 0.93 8.8 339 4.8 0.55 0.84 0.39 134

The human capital index is a program of advocacy, measurement, and analytical work to raise awareness and
increase demand for interventions to build human capital. The project has three components: (1) a cross-
country metric—the human capital index, (2) a program of measurement and research to inform policy action,
and (3) a program of support for country strategies to accelerate investment in human capital. The first step in
the project is an international metric to benchmark certain components of human capital across countries.25
The new index measures the amount of human capital that a child born in 2018 can expect to attain by age 18
in view of the risks of poor education and poor health that prevail in the country in which she was born. The
index is designed to highlight how improvements in the current education and health outcomes shape the
productivity of the next generation of workers: it assumes that children born in a given year experience current
educational opportunities and health risks over the next 18 years. A focus on outcomes—and not inputs such
as spending or regulation—directs attention to results, which are what really matter.
The human capital index quantifies the milestones in this trajectory in terms of their consequences for the
productivity of the next generation of workers. It has three components: (1) a measure of whether children
survive from birth to school age (age 5); (2) a measure of expected years of quality-adjusted school, which
combines information on the quantity and quality of education and (3) two broad measures of health—stunting
rates and adult survival rates.
In order to understand the significance of scores of the aforementioned countries, we need to know in which
percentile, the scores are lying. India is lying in the lower 25th percentile ( table 4.2) of the countries along with
Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan. Sri Lanka lies in interquartile range while China is in top 25th percentile. The
mention of China here is significant since it is acting as an outlier from Asian region.
The score of 0.44 for India can be interpreted as India’s per capita income would be 2.3 times as high as the
status quo if its citizens enjoyed a complete education and full health in the long run.
India’s position in Human Capital Index indicates that it needs to invest in its demographic in order to convert
it into dividend. Otherwise, it would never be able to reap the benefits out of it.

4.4 Foreign Exchange Reserve

High Forex reserve is an indicator of stability of an economy against the external economic shocks. India
has the highest forex reserve when compared to the countries of the subcontinent. In 2017, India’s forex
reserve reached its highest value.
Banglades Pakista Sri
Years h Bhutan India Nepal n Lanka
2008 5.00 0.75 280.00 2.00 15.00 3.50
2010 10.00 1.00 260.00 2.50 10.00 4.50
2012 7.50 0.90 260.00 3.50 12.50 5.80
2014 15.00 1.20 270.00 5.20 4.00 6.20
2016 25.00 1.10 325.00 8.00 16.00 5.50
2017 30.00 1.30 386.00 8.50 17.50 4.50
 450.00

400.00

350.00
FOREX Reserves (IN $BN)
300.00

250.00

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017

Years

Bangladesh Bhutan India

Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

As shown in the above India’s foreign reserve in 296 times of Bhutan and 22 times of Pakistan. Therefore,
India has highest foreign exchange reserve at present
As shown in graph India’s foreign reserve in much higher than other countries and more importantly it is
increasing at an increasing rate whereas other countries reserves are almost constant.

Global decline in the price of petroleum resulted in sharp fall in government’s petroleum expenditure. It
brought down the overall current account deficit and saved a large amount of dollars.

Post 2008 subprime crisis, investors’ world over lost faith in the western economies and large amount of
investment through Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) came to India and many developing countries.
Low rate of interest by Federal Reserve Bank (USA) further contributed to the inflow of dollars.

Moreover, government post 2014 has begun structural reforms such as opening up the economy by allowing
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in various sectors such as defence, multi brand retail and so on. This has
attracted investment in these sectors from the foreign investors.
4.5 Human Development Index (HDI)

The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic (composite index) of life expectancy, education, and per
capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country
scores higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the GDP per capita is
higher. The HDI was developed by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq and Indian economist Amartya Sen
which was further used to measure the country's development by the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP).

The 2010 Human Development Report introduced an Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index
(IHDI). While the simple HDI remains useful, it stated that "the IHDI is the actual level of human
development (accounting for inequality)", and "the HDI can be viewed as an index of 'potential' human

development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality)".

Owing to its massive size and structural problems in the economy, India has not been able to perform well
on this index. Sri Lanka has topped the list in this Index.

4.5 Poverty
 Percentage of population living below national
poverty line
50
40
42
30
20
24.8 25.2
21.9
10 15
12.04 12.4 6.7
0
Afghanistan BangladeshBhutan India MaldivesNepal PakistanSri Lanka

Poverty is the scarcity or the lack of a certain amount of material possessions or money. Poverty is a
multifaceted concept, which may include social, economic, and political elements
We observe that there is a steep decrease in poverty percentage for India from 2008. This could be attributed
to government schemes launched to alleviate poverty like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee Programme (MGNREGP which was launched in 2006) , Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana( then
Indira Awas Yojana) etc. Government has promised to double the income of farmers by 2022.If India
follows similar trend, then we can expect India to overtake Srilanka and Bhutan in terms of poverty by 2020.

4.6 Military Power

Table- Military Power

Details Indi Pakista Banglades Sri Nepa Bhuta Maldive

a n h Lanka l n s
Strength(million) 2.9 0.919 0.225 0.3 0.157 0.0007 -
Defense 4 0.7 0.159 0.15 0.021 0.01 0.0603
Expenditure
(billion$)
Land Tanks 6464 2924 534 102 0 0 -
Powe Towed Artillery 7414 3278 0 154 120 0 -
r Armored 6704 2828 942 571 1480 10 -
Fighting
Vehicles
Air Total Aircrafts 2086 923 166 69 22 4 -
Powe Helicopters 646 306 61 45 18 2 -
r
Nava Aircraft Carriers 2 0 0 0 - - -
l Frigates 14 10 6 0 - - -
Powe Submarines 14 5 0 0 - - -

r
ICBMs yes - - - - - -
Nuclear Bombs 110 120 0 0 0 0 -

India is a huge country surrounded by sea on two sides and mammoth Himalayas on the other. This massive
geographical spread provides ample resources but require a robust defense mechanism as well. Indian
defense includes the three primary wings-Indian Army, Indian Air force and Indian Navy.
 Total Armed Forces

Among the countries of the subcontinent, India has the largest number of army personnel, close to 4 million
(including the paramilitary forces. In terms of land power India is unmatched-owing more than six thousand
tanks, it completely surpasses the armies of Pakistan while others cannot even be compared to India.
Similarly India is way ahead of other countries in air force and navy, as the data suggests.

India not only defends its own country but provide security to the neighboring countries. India-Bhutan
Friendship Treaty 2007 is just one example which shows how India feels obliged to help the small countries
against external threat. Similarly, India is the largest contributor to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force
and it is involved in ensuring peace in Sudan, Libya, Congo, Haiti and so on.

4.7 International Organizations

India has been very active in engaging with other countries not just bilaterally but through various
multilateral organizations. The kind of engagement that India has maintained in various international
groupings allows it to voice its concern over the various issues and to protect its own interest.

Members of International Organizations

Internationa BRIC G20 G15 G24 G77 BIMST ADB OIC

l S EC
organization
s
India Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Ye Yes No
s
Bangladesh No No No No Yes Ye Yes Yes
s
Bhutan No No No No Yes Ye Yes No
s
Pakistan No No No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Nepal No No No No Yes Ye Yes No
s
Maldives No No No No Yes No Yes No
Sri Lanka No No No Yes Yes Ye Yes No
 s

India being a part of number of international organizations is also able to exercise its influence on
countries which are in far away as well as which are in immediate vicinity.

4.8 Digital Payments

On 8th November 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi put the entire nation in a frenzy. In one stroke, the
government made Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denomination notes invalid, leaving the country of $1.3 billion in a
limbo.
As citizens queued up outside banks to deposit old currency notes in exchange for new ones, the digital
payments ecosystem saw a huge opportunity open up. Right after the prime minister announced the ban on
high-value currency notes, experts told YourStory that digital payments in the country will rise sharply and
could easily double over the next couple of months.
Two years later, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its annual report said all payment and settlement systems -
NEFT, IMPS, UPI, NACH, card payments, Electronic Clearing Systems as well as Forex and market clearing
systems – have seen a 44.6 percent increase in volume in 2017-18 and an 11.9 percent increase in the value of
funds transferred.
In the annual report, RBI also said that during the financial year 2016-17, the volume of transactions through
digital payment systems witnessed a 56 percent increase, with the value of funds increasing by 24.8 percent.
Transactions across the digital retail payment infrastructure, which includes card payments, UPI and others
increased to 92.6 percent in 2017-18, up from 88.9 percent in the previous year.
The RBI also said the share of paper-based clearing instruments reduced from 11.1 percent in 2016-17 to 7.4
percent in 2017-18, showing a strong trend in favor of digital payments.

4.8.1 Growth of debit cards stalled after Demonetization

From FY16 to FY17, the total number of credit and debit cards grew by almost 29 percent, but this trend didn’t
quite sustain in the next financial year. Card growth fell sharply in FY18, growing at 1.5 percent, with total
physical cards in the country standing at almost 900 million.
This can be attributed to the slow growth of debit cards post demonetization, which showed less than 1 percent
growth between FY17 and FY18. Credit cards maintained an average 20 percent increase year-on-year.
Debit card growth in the country is now back on track, having grown 13.6 percent as of August this financial
year. As of August 2018, there were a total of 1.02 billion credit and debit cards in the country.
 (Source: RBI)

4.8.2 Acceptance of digital infrastructure

Acceptance of digital infrastructure has grown since demonetization with the number of Point of Sale (POS)
terminals increasing by 24 percent from 2.53 million in 2016-17 to 3.08 million in 2017-18, according to the
RBI. During the same period, the number of ATMs deployed by banks witnessed a marginal decline from
222,475 to 222,247.
The digital infrastructure still needs to expand as currently, for a total 1.02 billion credit and debit cards in the
country, there are only 3.3 million PoS devices and only 228,422 ATMs.
That means for every 309 million cards in the country there is one PoS machine available as an acceptance
point.
Split between debit cards and credit cards used across acceptance points (Source: RBI)

4.8.3 UPI

When it comes to digital payments, Unified Payments Interface has been the real winner.
Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi pushing digital payments app BHIM which runs on the UPI
infrastructure, the total volume of UPI payments stood at 17.9 million in FY17. And the value of funds
transferred for the same period, stood at Rs 6,900 crore, according to the RBI.
In 2017-18, after the adoption of UPI by private players like Google, Paytm and others, the total number of
transactions skyrocketed by more than 5,000 percent. In FY18, the total number of UPI transactions stood at
915.2 million and total funds transferred on the service stood at Rs 1.09 lakh crore.
Within eight months of this year, according to data from National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), UPI
transactions in the country have already crossed the 2 billion mark with a total Rs 3.42 lakh crore being
transferred.

Source: RBI & NPCI

Purchases through physical cards
According to RBI data, credit and debit card transactions on PoS devices doubled between FY16 and FY17.
The total number of card transactions in the country stood at 5.4 billion in FY17, up from 2.7 billion
transactions in FY16.
This means that more people made purchases using their cards.

In FY18, however, this growth rate slowed down. Nonetheless, the upward trend continued as card payments
on PoS devices were up by 50 percent, with total volume of transactions at 8.2 billion.
Further, even the average ticket size transacted on PoS devices has come down. Average transaction stood at
Rs 1,361 for FY17 from Rs 1,666 in FY16. In FY18, the average ticket size of purchases made through PoS
devices stood at Rs 1,292.
(Source: RBI)
Curb on withdrawals does show in numbers
The Modi government’s decision to curb withdrawal to Rs 2,000 a day post demonetization also reflected in
the total value of cash withdrawn in FY17. The total value of cash withdrawn from ATMs stood at Rs 23.63
lakh crore in FY17, down 6 percent from Rs 25 lakh crore in FY16. Simultaneously, the total cash withdrawal
transactions grew by 6 percent between FY16 and FY17.

As of FY18, there isn’t much change in the number of cash withdrawals when compared to the last fiscal.
However, the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs has grown by 22 percent in FY18 when compared with the
last fiscal last year, and stood at Rs 2.9 lakh crore for the year.
5. Conclusion

In the public and widespread media, India’s status as an emerging economy has certainly and, perhaps
erroneously, translated in to discussion of India as an emerging power (Cohen 2001; Buzan 2002;
Ganguly 2003; Kapur 2006; Nadkarni 2011; Nayar and Paul 2003).

Scholarly discussions of Indian foreign policy point out limitations on Indian power, despite its
disproportionate capability relative to its neighbours, which include internal conflicts, instability in
neighbours, and the on-going rivalry with Pakistan (Mitra and Schöttli 2007). The implication of
these analyses is that India remains a regional power, despite these challenges.

From the above discussed variables, we see that India leads disproportionately in 5 variables out of the 7
variables. In Human Development Index and Poverty, India lags behind.

India is a huge country and developing at a very fast pace. All the countries falling in this league are
facing twin problems of sustainable development and rising inequality. India is certainly no
exception.

The poverty percentage in India is falling quite rapidly and by 2020 we can expect it to reduce to
a significant low percentage.

Based on the analysis we can say, that Indian is a regional superpower.

Inferences:

 Country Comparison: Exports". The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved 10
November 2012.

 "Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)". The World Bank.