MATH 120: Quiz 10 - 11/19/2014

In 2009 a nationwide study found about 3% of all births produce twins. Data from a
local hospital found only 9 sets of twins were born to 469 teenage girls. Can we infer
the rate of twin births is lower for teen mothers? Carry out a hypothesis test at a
10% significance level. Solution must show all steps, including hypotheses, check of
conditions, sampling distribution model (with sketch), all calculations, and conclu-
sion.
Solution
Let p = true proportion of twin births for teenage mothers.
* Null hypothesis H0 : p = 0.03
Alt. hypothesis HA : p < 0.03
Test is 1-tailed – we want to know if the rate of twin births is lower for teenage
mothers.
* Check conditions/ assumptions that the sample must satisfy:
(1) Is sample independent? It is certainly not random, since all the data are from
one hospital. For the same reason, it is unlikely to be representative of all births to
teen mothers.
Is n < 10 %? Yes, it is certain that 469 < 10% of all teenage mothers giving birth.
(2) Sample large enough? Check whether at least 10 successes/failures:
np0 = 469 × 0.03 = 14 > 10 X n(1 − p0 ) = 455 > 10 X.
The independence condition is not met. So, interpret results with caution.
* Sampling distribution model (based on null hypothesis) is normal N (0.03, 0.0079):
r
0.03(1 − 0.03) N(0.03, 0.0079)
SD= = 0.0079
469
9
p̂ = = 0.0192
469
0.0192 − 0.03 ^
p
z= = −1.367
0.0079 0.0192 0.03

From calculator: P-value =

normalcdf(-10,-1.367) = 0.0857 (or from z-table).
The P-value is 8.6%, which is below the 10% significance level given for this problem.
* Conclusion: This P-value is below the significance level. Thus, we reject the null
hypothesis, and infer the rate of twin births is lower for teen mothers. We note that
this inference is based on a sample that did not fully satisfy the needed conditions.

Grading: Total points possible = 10.

1 pt - Any reasonable effort.
2pt = correct hypotheses.
2pt = know & check the right assumptions.
1pt = correct mean & SD of sampling
distribution model
1pt = sketch of sampling distr. model
showing what we want to find.
1pt = correct p̂ and z-score.
1pt = find correct P-value.
1pt = conclusion & interpretation.