Rohit Shetty Kusalkar

M2020DM023

Tata Institute of Social Science, Mumbai

 TITLE OF RESEARCH –

Flood susceptibility zonation mapping of Panchaganga River in Kolhapur.

 INTRODUCTION –

According to (UNISDR, 2009), Disaster is a “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a

society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which
exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.” Natural
hazards are naturally occurring physical phenomena caused either by rapid or slow onset events which
can be geophysical (earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis and volcanic activity), hydrological (avalanches
and floods), climatological (extreme temperatures, drought and wildfires), meteorological (cyclones and
storms/wave surges) or biological (disease epidemics and insect/animal plagues). (IFRC) Hazards have
the potential to cause harm to people and property, and they can be classified based on a variety of
factors, including their source, magnitude, onset duration, and coverage area. Flood is one of the most
destructive natural disasters, causing severe and long lasting damage to property and communication
networks, as well as significant loss of human and livestock life, along with agricultural goods and
croplands. Flood damage has increased in recent years compared to earlier periods, because of increased
flood frequency, encroachment of flood plains, and other anthropogenic activities including mining,
deforestation, and etc. Heavy rain, rapid snowmelt, or storm surges from a tropical cyclone or tsunami in
coastal areas are all common causes of flooding.
According to the (WHO), Floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves, and extreme storms have been
responsible for 80-90 percent of all natural disasters recorded in the last ten years. Floods impacted over 2
billion people worldwide between 1998 and 2017. Floods are most dangerous to people who live in
floodplains or in buildings that aren't flood-resistant, or who don't have flood warning systems or aren't
aware of the risk. Around 800 million people live in flood-prone areas around the world, with around 70
million people exposed to flood events every year, while in India, around 3.19 million people are affected
annually, with an average area of 7.2 million hectares affected. (Prasad, 2020) Floods are a major threat in
India. More than 40 million hectares (mha) of the total geographical area of 329 million hectares (mha)
are flood-prone. In the last ten years, from 1996 to 2005, the average annual flood damage was Rs. 4745
crore, compared to Rs. 1805 crore in the previous 53 years. (NDMA) In several parts of Maharashtra,
heavy rains have resulted in extreme floods in recent years. Floods have wreaked havoc on the districts of
Sangli, Kolhapur, Satara, Pune, and Nasik in Maharashtra's western region. (Kabade, Patil, Patil, Yadav,
& Kadam, 2020) Kolhapur receives a lot of rain from June to September because of its location in the
Western Ghats. In the years 2005, 2006, and 2019, heavy rains often resulted in major flooding In
Kolhapur region.
The flood of 2019 was mostly affected the Sangli and Kolhapur districts of Maharashtra. In these districts
the Krishna, Warna, Panchaganga Rivers was crossed their highest flood level. The damage caused by the
floods has been immense. More than 6.45 lakh people have been evacuated and relocated in the two
districts of Sangli and Kolhapur alone. In five districts of Western Maharashtra, more than 30 people died
as a result of floods. Floodwaters damaged more than 3,450 homes in Sangli. (Kanvinde, 2019) Also in
Kolhapur, a total of 223 villages and 3,813 houses have been affected in the district, with 89 of them
totally destroyed. (indiatoday, 2019) Thousands of hectares of cropland in these districts were also
submerged for nearly a week due to the flood. Sugarcane was planted on 1.52 lakh hectares in Kolhapur
and 95, 827 hectares in Sangli, according to the Sugar Commissionarate. Almost 40% of this crop has
been absolutely burned. Bananas, grapes, groundnuts, soya beans, vegetables, and other crops have also
been affected. (SANDRP, 2019) Overall these floods have impacted over 3 lakh farmers. (Bhusari, 2019)

 LITERATURE REVIEW –

Flood and its Impacts -

Due to the dynamic interplay of numerous factors causing floods, defining a flood has always
been a difficult task. The majority of concepts continue to fall short of capturing the realities of
these cases. The term "flood" does not have a standardized meaning. Different literatures, on the
other hand, have attempted to describe flood in terms of relationships between various factors
that cause floods and the effects of these events. For example, according to (Doswell III, 2003) ,
“A flood is defined as water overflowing onto land that usually is dry.” also according to
(NIDM) , “A flood is an excess of water (or mud) on land that's normally dry and is a situation
where in the inundation is caused by high flow, or overflow of water in an established
watercourse, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch; or ponding of water at or near the point
where the rain fell.” According to WHO, Floods impacted over 2 billion people worldwide between
1998 and 2017. (Borrows & Bruin, 2006) indicates that, flooding has taken the lives of more people than
any other natural disaster. According to the (Nott, 2006), the direct effects of a flood are directly
proportional to the size of the affected area and the depth of the floodwaters. The size of a flood has a
direct association with the time it takes for crops and pastures to recover, as well as the social and
economic disruption it causes to a country's population. Floods are the most expensive and widespread
natural disasters. They are responsible for up to 50,000 deaths per year and affect an estimated 75 million
people worldwide. The occurrence of disease is common, particularly in developing countries. Malaria
and typhoid outbreaks are also widespread in tropical countries following floods. In India and
Bangladesh, it is estimated that 300 million people live in flood-prone areas. Flooding is one of India's
major problems, which happens almost every year during the monsoon season. (Singh, 2018)

Causes of Flood -
Rainfall, cyclonic storms, temperature, snowmelt, and snowfall are all examples of
meteorological factors that contribute to flooding around the world. Rainfall is the most
important deciding factor in any flood case. On a global scale, high-magnitude rainfall is the
most common source of flood. According to (Tripathi, 2015), Flood can be causes due to the
climate change, cloud bursting, tsunami or poor river management, silting etc. also Natural
patterns (topography, rainfall), regional geological conditions, and human activities that result in
changes in land use in an area all contribute to floods. (Sholihah, Kuncoro, Wahyun, Suwandi, &
Feditasari, 2020) also according to (Parker, Tunstall, & Mccarthy, 2007), The number of flood
events is on the rise , which is due to Changes to catchments that result in increased run-off (such
as deforestation or urbanisation), Increased population in flood-prone areas, Climate change,
which increases weather variability and intensity, including record-breaking rainfall and
potentially more extreme tropical cyclones. According to the NIDM, the following are the causes
of Flood in India-
1. Intense rainfall
2. Excessive rainfall in river catchments, as well as tributary runoff concentrations and river
carrying flows that exceed their capacity
3. As the EL Nino impact is weakening, cyclones and heavy rainfall are more likely.
4. Poor Natural drainage system.
5. Landslides obstructing river flow and changing the river's course.
6. Flood peaks in the major rivers or their tributaries are synchronized.
Application of remote sensing and GIS in flood Studies -
Floods, like any other catastrophe, are unavoidable; however, their consequences can be reduced
with proper flood control. In recent years, remote sensing and Geographic information systems
have aided in the assessment of various geo-environmental threats and have played a significant
role in natural hazard management. In recent years, attempts have been made to create national-
level flood hazard maps using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GISs).
Various models, in combination with remote sensing and GIS, have proven to be extremely
useful in flood control. Flood mapping will aid decision-making in the aftermath of such events
by enabling risk management, near-real-time forecasting, and land use and land cover
management (LU/LC). Floods are multi-dimensional dynamic phenomena, so data from
geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) have been used to map the extent
of flooded areas. (Swain, Singha, & Nayak, 2020) Flood hazards maps aid in the identification of
areas vulnerable to flooding in a region, as well as identifying high-risk prone locations,
providing early warning and assisting in the preparation of more successful emergency
responses, promoting a faster response, and reducing the impact of potential flood events.
The preparation of flood maps necessitates the quantification of flood risk, which is critical for
flood preparedness, but this involves a multidisciplinary approach. It necessitates comprehensive
information on geographical, topographical, hydrological, land use, land cover, and rainfall
variables. These variables can be calculated using remote sensing datasets such as high-
resolution satellite images, digital elevation models (DEMs), and GIS techniques, which can then
be combined to create a flood hazard zonation chart. For example (Sanyal & Lu, 2005) identify
non-flooded areas and flood depth within flooded zones, as well as delineate human settlements
at the village level, using Landsat ETMC and ERS synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imageries.
Flooding is caused by a variety of variables that are dependent on the meteorological and
hydrological characteristics of a specific area, including topography, drainage, soil type, drainage
proximity, wetness index, rainfall, rainfall runoff, slope and slope aspect, curvature, elevation,
and landuse/landcover, which includes both natural and built environments. To assess flood risk
in a given region, a large database of these parameters is frequently needed, and the absence of
any of these may compromise the study's validity. When assessing flood vulnerability for various
study areas, different researchers have used different causative variables However; some of these
variables are consistent in the majority of flood studies. So flood susceptibility assists in
understanding the effects of disasters and the construction of disaster-prevention measures.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES –

1. To identify the Flood Susceptibility Zone using different flood causative factors.
2. The study will estimate the area affected in Kolhapur district by the 2019 flood using the
Sentinel-1 radar data.
3. To estimate the flood impact on the agricultural land.
4. Also the study will identify the impact of flood on livelihood of the farmers in region of
Panchaganga River.

STUDY AREA –

For my research the Panchaganga River in Kolhapur Districts is selected as the study area. The
Panchaganga River in Maharashtra flows through Kolhapur's boundaries. Prayag Sangam is the
starting point which is located in the village Padali BK, Taluka Karveer Dist. Kolhapur. Parts of
the Kolhapur district's Karveer, Hatkanangle, and Shirol tahsils are included in this catchment
area. The area is part of the Deccan Trap Formation, which sits atop the Kaladgi beds.

Fig. Panchaganga river basin in Kolhapur District. Source - (KOLHAPUR ZILLA PARISHAD)

METHODOLOGY-

The research methodology for this research problem will be mixed methodology (i.e. both
quantitative and qualitative approaches). The primary goal of this study is to map flood
susceptibility in the study area using different causative factors. For this 13 factors like Rainfall
and water level, Distance from river, Slope, Elevation, , Topographic wetness Index(TWI),
 curvature, Soil type , Geology, Buildup Index, Stream power index(SPI), Drainage density, Land
use land cover data etc. are used to generate the Flood susceptibility zone map.

A. Methodology for flood susceptibility zonation.

Flood Inventory
Data Flood Causative Factors
Rainfall and water level

Distance from river

Analysis and Slope

Integration
Elevation

Topographic wetness Index(TWI)

Curvature
Evidential belief
Function Model Soil type

Buildup Index

Geology
Flood Susceptibility
Zonation Map Drainage density

Stream power index(SPI)

Land use land cover data

 B. Methodology for estimating area affected and impact on agriculture land by 2019 Flood in
Kolhapur

SENTINEL I Data

Pre Flood Image During Flood Image

Speckle filtering Speckle filtering

Setting threshold Sentinel 2A Data

Terrain correction

Differentiating flood areas Terrain correction Supervised

from natural water bodies Classification

Flood Inundation Map Identify flood and LULC

other regions

Flood Impact

Data sources –

Data from satellites will be used to create thematic layers for various causative factors. TWI,
Slope, height, built-up index, LULC, and other parameters will be estimated using high-
resolution sentinel 2A satellite imagery and the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The Geological
Survey of India will give information on geology and drainage patterns of study Area. For
Rainfall data we can used data from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data.

Data Analysis –

We run these data via Machine Learning algorithms, and the slope and elevation data is
processed using the Digital Elevation Model to get the exact slope angles. Finally, all of the
variables will be integrated in a GIS to produce final maps and layouts depicting the flood
susceptibility zone in study area. In this Study Evidential belief Function Model can be used for
the establishing the relation between flood causative factors and flood event. Throughout
research various GIS software and tools will be used. Also for impact of the Flood, the primary
data from the field surveys and secondary data secondary data would be used from websites,
local newspapers, reports from NGOs, and government.
Reference -
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