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Weibull distribution for determination of wind analysis and energy production

Article  in  World Journal of Engineering · August 2015

DOI: 10.1260/1708-5284.12.3.215

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 World Journal of

World Journal of Engineering 12(3) (2015 ) 215-220 Engineering

Weibull distribution for determination of wind

analysis and energy production
•
Faruk Oral1,*, Ismail Ekmekçi2 and Nevzat Onat3
1BitlisEren University, Faculty of Engineering Architecture, Department of Mechanical
Eng., Bitlis, 13434, Turkey
2I•stanbul Commerce University, Engineering and Design Faculty, Istanbul, 34387, Turkey
3Marmara University, Vocational School of Technical Studies, Istanbul, 34387, Turkey
*E-mail: foral@beu.edu.tr

(Received 3 February 2015; Accepted 18 May 2015)

Abstract
In recent years, decreasing reserves and environmental problems related with fossil fuels have
increased the demand for clean and renewable energy sources, as with all over the world and also
in Turkey. Wind energy is the one of the most rapidly growing among the renewable energy
sources in terms of technological and utilization. Turkey is one of the rich countries in Europe in
respect to wind energy potential. Productive and effective use of this potential is very important
for Turkey that is depended on foreign countries especially in respect to fossil energy sources.
Wind speed values are the most important data in calculation of electrical energy from wind
turbines. In this study, latest developments and energy-power equations related to wind turbines
are investigated. Using of the data obtained from the wind measurement station installed in
Sakarya-Esentepe region, annual electrical energy production of an example wind plant is
predicted.
Key words: Weibull distribution, Wind energy, Electrical energy production, Prediction.

1. Introduction Wind energy potential in Turkey is good. But,

In recent years, due to the increasing energy
consumption and environmental pollution, all over
the world tends to clean and renewable sources of
energy. Wind energy is one of the clean and
renewable energy sources and is the kinetic energy
that airflow to the wind. A portion of this energy can
be converted to useful mechanical or electrical
energy. Today, generation of electric energy from
wind by using modern wind tribunes is very
widespread in all around the world. As end of 2014,
the wind energy installed power capacity in the
world was 369.553 GW (GWEC, 2015).
Turkey is largely dependent on outside in terms of
fossil fuels especially oil and natural gas and is in
critical point with regard to installed power
required to meet the energy demand. This situation
made the country indirectly foreign-dependent for
electric energy production and an importer
country. For this reason, it is important to use
wind energy potential of country. In recent years
the production of electrical energy from wind can
be seen an increase. At the end of 2014, installed
wind energy capacity in Turkey reached to 3762
MW (TWEA, 2015).

ISSN:1708-5284
216 Faruk Oral et al./World Journal of Engineering 12(3) (2015) 215-220
Basically, projecting and economical analysis a
wind farm is done according to the amount of
energy that can be produced in the selected plant
area. In these analyses, wind speed, direction and
frequency data are the most important parameters
are used. Therefore, it is important to establish a
wind measurement station and take the values above
mentioned at least one year. In this study, by using
the wind data obtained from wind measures made
for energy generation purpose, determination of
electric energy generation potential from wind
tribune was researched. In the study, the power and
energy equations of wind turbines were examined.
By using the wind data obtained from the wind
measurement power station installed in Sakarya-
Esentepe region, the annual electric energy
generation of a model wind electric power station
was estimated.
2. Wind turbines
Wind turbines have become today’s modern wind
turbines by passing various variations throughout
history. Wind turbines are classified according to
the rotating axes, power and blade number. Modern
turbines are generally categorized as two main
groups by rotation axes: vertical and horizontal-axes
wind turbines.
Vertical-axes wind turbines (VAWTs) are a type
of wind turbine where the main rotor shaft is set
vertically, perpendicular to the wind direction and
the main components are located at the base of the
turbine. Today, VATWs are generally used in
experimental studies and low power stand-alone
applications through their low efficiency and
reliability disadvantages. In horizontal-axes wind
turbines (HAWTs), rotation axe is parallel and
blades are perpendicular to the wind direction. In
HAWTs, rotor speed increase for lower rotor blades.
Therefore, HAWTs can be classified as high-speed
(blades number from 1 to 4) and low-speed (blades
number are more than 4) turbines according to the
number of blades. Generally, low-speed turbines are
used in stand-alone applications such as water
pumping. Turbines used in wind farms for
commercial production of electric power are usually
three-bladed, high-speed and pointed into the wind
by computer-controlled motors. Today, commercial
wind turbines that have 120 m rotor diameter, 160m
hub height and 5 MW rated power are now
available.
3. Mathematical method
3.1. Weibull probability density function
In many studies made to determine the wind
energy potential, it was determined that the wind
speed data showed Weibull distribution feature
(Akpinar and Akpinar, 2004; Kose et al., 2004;
Seguro and Lambert, 2000; Celik, 2003; Ulgen and
Hepbasli, 2002; Bayülken and Bekdemir, 2007;
Weisser, 2003; Karsli and Geçit, 2003; Bilgili et al.,
2004; Ozerdem and Turkeli, 2003; Ozerdem and
Turkeli, 2005; Sahin et al., 2005; Bassyouni et al.,
2015; Jiang et al., 2015). Therefore, Weibull
distribution method is used to determine the wind
speed distribution and statistical analysis in this
study. Figure and scale parameters must be known
to obtain the Weibull probability density function.
The general expression of the two-parameter
Weibull probability density function for wind speed
can be shown with the following equity (Karsli and
Geçit, 2003; Incecik and Erdogmus, 1995).
k −1   v k 
k  v
f (v) =   exp  −    (1)
c  c   c  
Whereas f (v), v, k and c express the Weibull
density function in the wind speed, the non-
dimensional figure parameter and the scale
parameter respectively. Cumulative Weibull
distribution function can be expressed as follow
(Ulgen and Hepbasli, 2002; Persaud et al., 1999).
  v k 
F ( v ) = 1 − exp  −    (2)
 
 c 
There are several methods to determine the
Weibull distribution parameters. Graphical method
that is a highest possibility method is the most
widely-used approaches. In this study, graphical
method was used. Verity of this method is
minimizing of the vertical differences between the
observed and representing by segment wind speed
data. The average wind speed of Weibull
distribution can be expressed in the following
equation (Celik, 2003).
1
vm = cΓ(1 + ) (3)
k
In this equation, Γ() represents the gamma
function and can be calculated with equation (4).
 Faruk Oral et al./World Journal of Engineering 12(3) (2015) 215-220 217

∞
VR V0 
Γ( y ) = ∫ e− x x y −1dx (4) ETW = T ∫ Pe f ( v )dv + ∫ PR f ( v )dv 
 (8)
0 V 
 1 VR 

3.2. Electrical power production from wind energy Here, T expresses the time. Power carried by
Wind is a moving airflow and has kinetic energy. wind is never entirely converted to electrical energy
The power to be obtained from wind per unit area because of turbine and transmission losses. The real
can be expressed with the following equation. value of electrical power (PTe) obtained from wind
via wind tribune and generator can be calculated by
means of the tribune performance curve (Arslan,
1
p (v) = ρ Av 3 (5) 2010; Johnson, 2001; Jowder, 2009; Gökçek and
2 Genç, 2009).
Whereas, A and ρ express the sweep area of
turbine and air density respectively. The average 0, v < V1

wind power density (P) for Weibull distribution can
be expressed with the following equation (Celik, ( 3 2
 a1v + a2 v + a3v + a4 )

2003; Bayülken and Bekdemir, 2007; Arslan, 2010). PTe (v ) =  PR , V1 ≤ v < VR
P , V ≤ v < V (9)
 R R 0
∞
1  3 0, v ≥ V0
P = ∫ p(v ) f (v )dv = ρc 3Γ 1 +  (6) 
0
2  k
The real energy amount (ETA) that may be
Basically, initial wind power (p(v)) is turns to obtained from a wind tribune can be expressed with
mechanical power (Pmec) after via the turbine. the following equation.
Mechanical power decreases to transmission power
(Pt) because of bearing losses. Finally, transmission V0

power is transformed into the electrical power (Pe). ETA = T ∫ PTe ( v ) f ( v )dv = TPR
In this wind turbine; if Cp, ηmec, ηe and p(v) are the V1
turbine power coefficient, the mechanic system VR V0  (10)
yield, electric system efficiency and the initial wind
power respectively, the electrical power to be V
( 3 2
)
 ∫ a1v + a2 v + a3 v + a4 f ( v )dv + ∫ f ( v )dv 

 1 VR 
obtained from ideal wind turbine can be expressed
as follows (Johnson, 2001). Efficiency of a wind tribune (ηT) is equal to the
proportion of the real energy generation amount
pe = Cpηmecηe p (v) (7) obtained from tribune to the ideal energy generation
amount (Arslan, 2010).
Cp value that is power factor of a turbine is
expressed as the rate of mechanical power to ETA
theoretical power of wind. Maximum value of Cp is ηT= 100 (11)
ETW
59% and called as Betz Limit. A wind tribune starts
power generation with its initial speed of V1 (cut-in The capacity factor (CF) of a wind tribune
speed) and continues until it reaches to nominal power expresses the energy generation performance of a
generation (PR) in speed of VR. After the tribune tribune and is the proportion of real energy
reaches its nominal power generation, it begins to generation amount to the energy generation amount
slow down in a controlled manner. The tribune turns in nominal power (Jowder, 2009; Gökçek and Genç,
off itself in wind speeds above cut-off speeds (V0) and 2009).
makes no energy generation. The energy generation
amount to be obtained from an ideal wind tribune
ETA
(ETW) can be expressed with the following equation CF = (12)
(Arslan, 2010; Johnson, 2001; Jowder, 2009). TPR
218 Faruk Oral et al./World Journal of Engineering 12(3) (2015) 215-220

4. Analysis and application wind data measured at a point grew to the general
Wind speed and direction data are the most region and the potential wind energy fields are
important parameters to predict the produced surveyed. In next stage, electrical energy amount
electrical energy amount from a wind energy can be produced is estimated for an appropriate
conversion plant. In this study, 12-month wind data turbine model. In determination of wind turbine
obtained from the wind measurement power station model, some parameters are used such as annual
installed in Sakarya-Esentepe region including 2006 average wind speed, power density, capacity factor
and 2007 years were used. In this station, and transportation status of the region. Besides, in
measurements of wind speed for 10 m and 30 m analysis of wind data, establishment of graphics and
height, wind direction of 30 m and ambient WPP analysis, the WindPRO and WAsP software
temperature for 3 m height are realized periodically. were used (WindPRO Software, Ver. 2.5).
The analysis study consists of two phases. In the By making statistical analysis of wind data, the
first phase, statistical analysis of wind data is made. wind speed frequency distribution was obtained
In the analysis, in determination of wind speed (Figure 1). The annual average wind speed and
distribution, two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequency are given in Figure 2. Figure 2 shows that
used. In the second phase, the wind power plant the maximum wind speed frequency is in the north
(WPP) analysis is made to determine the tribune and annual frequency is greater than 22% in this
locations of wind farm planned to install for purpose direction. Also in the North-Eastern and North-
of energy generation in the region, to select wind Western, it was seen that aspects of the notably-
tribune types and determine the energy amount to be sized wind frequency. Annual mean wind speed
generated. Digital height map of Sakarya-Esentepe values are higher than 4 m/s in North, North-
region is formed for this purpose. By means of this Eastern, North-Western, West and South. In Table 1,
map that covers approximately 150 km2 area, the the monthly and annual average wind speed,

Weibull (30.0 m), c = 5.1 m/s, k = 1.81, Vm = 4.5 m/s

16 Actual data height: 30.0 m

14
Frequency (%)

12
10

2m/s

4m/s
8
6
4
2
0
0 5 10 15 20
( ) ( )
Wind speed (m/s)

Fig. 1. Frequency distribution of annual wind speed. Fig. 2. Directional changing of frequency and wind speed.

Table 1.
Monthly and Annual Averages of Wind Speed, Weibull Parameters and Power Density

Weibull distribution Actual data

Months
Vm (m/s) k c (m/s)2 Pm (W/m2) Vm (m/s) Pm (W/m2)
January 6.22 2.11 7.02 258.00 6.16 261.19
February 5.37 1.99 6.06 177.06 5.23 178.54
March 5.28 1.91 5.95 178.77 5.27 181.05
April 4.24 2.03 4.79 86.53 4.16 87.90
May 3.99 1.94 4.50 76.60 3.91 77.74
June 3.92 1.90 4.41 72.95 3.85 74.43
July 4.33 1.83 4.87 99.89 4.22 101.48
August 4.24 1.88 4.78 92.35 4.20 94.18
September 4.29 1.98 4.84 91.55 4.21 93.15
October 3.62 1.92 4.08 57.88 3.56 58.79
November 4.56 1.89 5.13 114.50 4.47 116.10
December 4.25 1.55 4.73 120.43 4.24 121.12
Annual 4.55 1.81 5.12 121.01 4.49 122.26
 Faruk Oral et al./World Journal of Engineering 12(3) (2015) 215-220 219

Weibull parameters and average power density As a result of the WPP analysis, Tahtallk and
values are given. Besides, the change of monthly Sardivan Hill surroundings were selected as the wind
mean wind speed and power density values are farm installation area that is planned for purpose of
given in Fig. 3 and the change of monthly mean model application (Figure 5). Besides, for the model
power density according to the actual and Weibull wind farm, 3 pieces RE power MM92 type wind
distribution are given in Fig. 4. According to the tribunes of which nominal power is 2 MW, hub
Table 1, the highest and the lowest average wind height 120 m, rotor diameter 92.5 m were deemed
appropriate. In Figure 5 and Table 2, placement and
speed values for 30 m hub height occur in January
coordinates of the wind tribune are given.
and October respectively. Annual average wind The results of analysis made by using the wind
speed and power density values are determined as data for the model wind farm are given in Table 3.
4.55 m/s and 121.01 W/m2 according to the Weibull When the table is examined, it is seen that the
distribution. In Table 1, it is showed that Weibull annual total energy generation amount of the 6 MW
and real values of average wind speed and power wind farm is 10603.4 MWh, capacity factor value is
density are too close to the each other (Figure 4). 20.2% and park yield is 98.8%.

7 300
Mean power density (W/m2)
Wind speed
Mean wind speed (m/s)

6 Power density 250

200
5
150 1
4
100
3 50

2 0
Jul
Apr

Oct
Jan

Jun
Feb
Mar

Aug
Sep

Nov
Dec
May

Months
Scale 1:20,000
Fig. 3. Changing of monthly average wind speed and power New WTG Site data
density.
Fig. 5. Locations of wind turbines.
Mean power density (W/m2)

300
Weibull distribution Table 3.
250
Actual data Analysis results
200
WTG Manufacturer REpower
150 WTG type MM 92
100 Hub height (m) 120
Rotor diamater (m) 92.5
50
Installed power (MW) 6
0 WTG number 3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Rated power (MW) 2

Months Total energy production (MWh) 10603.4
Capacity factor (%) 20.2
Fig. 4. Monthly average power densities. Park efficiency (%) 98.8

Table 2.
Coordinates and locations of wind turbines

Horizontal
distance to
Turbine Altitude Nearest nearest turbine Distanceas
number Coordinates (m) turbine (m) rotor diameter
T1 273.353 - 4.516.489 360 T2 907 9.8
T2 274.187 - 4.516.132 335 T3 522 5.6
T3 274.657 - 4.516.358 335 T2 522 5.6
220 Faruk Oral et al./World Journal of Engineering 12(3) (2015) 215-220
5. Conclusion
In this study, by using the wind data obtained from
wind measurements made for purpose of energy
generation in a region, the amount of energy generation
was estimated. Analysis of wind data and energy and
power connections of wind tribunes were examined.
For this purpose, the wind data obtained from
measures made at the wind measurement power station
installed in Sakarya- Esentepe Region were used.
According to the wind speed measurements made
at 30 m height, the annual actual mean wind speed is
4.49 m/s, the highest monthly mean wind speed
occurs in January month and the lowest wind speed
occurs in October. According to the analysis made
pursuant to the Weibull distribution; the annual mean
wind speed at 30 m height is 4.55 m/s, the highest and
the lowest mean wind speed values occur in January
and October respectively. The annual Weibull
parameters k and c values are calculated as 1.81 and
5.12 m/s. The monthly Weibull parameters k and c
values change between 1.55-2.11 and 4.08 m/s-7.02
m/s respectively. The value of annual mean actual
power density is found as 122.26 W/m2 and its
Weibull value is found as 121.01 W/m2. The highest
value of the monthly mean power density is seen in
January. The dominant wind blowing direction in the
region is determined as the north. It is determined that
the actual and Weibull results of the annual, monthly
and seasonal mean wind speed and power density
values are very close to each other.
As a result of the WPS analysis made for purpose
of calculation of electric energy to be generated
from wind in the region, a model wind farm was
planned. For this wind farm, an appropriate wind
tribune types and installation places of tribunes were
determined. As a result of the analysis made for this
purpose, the annual total energy generation amount,
capacity factor and park yield values of the model
wind farm were determined.
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