Quarte Sales Avarage Of The Same Quarters Deseasonalize Deseasonalize

Period Seasonal Factor X2

r (Y) Of Each Year d Demand (Yd) d

(600+2.400+3.800)/3= 0,81559220
1 I 600 2266,667 4 735,6618 1 735,6618
(1.550+3.100+4.500)/3= 1,09745127
2 II 1.550 3.050 4 1412,363 4 2824,727
(1.500+2.600+4.000)/3= 0,97151424
3 III 1.500 2,700 3 1543,981 9 4631,944
(1.500+2.900+4.900)/3= 1,11544227
4 IV 1.500 3,100 9 1344,758 16 5379,032
0,81559220
5 I 2.400 4 2942,647 25 14713,24
1,09745127
6 II 3.100 4 2824,727 36 16948,36
0,97151424
7 III 2.600 3 2676,235 49 18733,64
1,11544227
8 IV 2.900 9 2599,866 64 20798,92
0,81559220
9 I 3.800 4 4659,191 81 41932,72
1,09745127
10 II 4.500 4 4100,41 100 41004,1
0,97151424
11 III 4.000 3 4117,284 121 45290,12
1,11544227
12 IV 4.900 9 4392,876 144 52714,52
3335
78 0 12 33350 650 265707
Metode Dekomposisi

Regresi linier

Persamaan regresi

Y= a+bx = 554,9+342,2x

Period Quarter Y from regression Seasonal factor Forecast

line (y x seasonal
factor)
13 1 5,003.5 0,82 4,080.8
14 2 5,345.7 1,10 5,866.6
15 3 5,687.9 0,97 5,525.9
16 4 6,030.1 1,12 6,726.2
Period Forecast

13 4,080.8
14 5,866.6
15 5,525.9

16 6,726.2