Charles Ega Pratama / 3203017162

PROJECT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Tahun PDA Baru ($)

0 Biaya pengembangan prototype 750.000
Biaya studi pemasaran 200.000
Peralatan 21.500.000
Total 22.450.000

Year New PDA+PDA Old   Current PDA

(74.000 unit x
23.200.00
1 Sale $360) + (65.000 41.265.000 Sale
0
unit x $225)
(74.000 unit x
  COGS $155) + (65.000 (19.270.000) COGS
(9.600.000)
unit x $120)
Gross Gross
  21.995.000
Profit Profit 13.600.000
  Depreciation $21.500.000 / 7 (3.071.429)
$4.700.000 + Fixed
  Fixed Costs (4.700.000)
$1.800.000 Costs (1.800.000)

  EBIT 14.223.571 EBIT

11.800.000

  Tax 35% (4.978.250) Tax

(4.130.000)

  EAT 9.245.321   EAT

7.670.000

OCF = EBIT – Tax + Depreciation

12.316.750

NWC
8.253.000

Year New PDA+PDA Old   Current PDA

(95.000 unit x
44.325.0 17.400.00
2 Sale $360) + (45.000 Sale
00 0
unit x $225)
  COGS (95.000 unit x (20.125.00 COGS
 $155) + (45.000
0) (7.200.000)
unit x $120)
Gross 24.200.0 Gross
 
Profit 00 Profit 10.200.000
$21.500.000 / 7 (3.071.42
  Depreciation  
9)
$4.700.000 + (4.700.00 Fixed
  Fixed Costs
$1.800.000 0) Costs (1.800.000)
16.428.5
  EBIT EBIT
71 8.400.000
35% (5.750.00
  Tax Tax
0) (2.940.000)
10.678.5
  EAT   EAT
71 5.460.000

OCF = EBIT – Tax + Depreciation

13.750.000

NWC
8.865.000
Year New PDA+PDA Old
3 Sale 125.000 unit x $360 45.000.000
  COGS 125.000 unit x $155 (19.375.000)
  Gross Profit 25.625.000
  Depreciation $21.500.000 / 7 (3.071.429)
  Fixed Costs (4.700.000)
  EBIT 17.853.571
  Tax 35% (6.248.750)
  EAT 11.604.821
OCF 14.676.250
NWC 9.000.000

Year New PDA+PDA Old

4 Sale 105.000 unit x $360 37.800.000
  COGS 105.000 unit x $155 (16.275.000)
  Gross Profit 1.525.000
  Depreciation $21.500.000 / 7 3.071.429)
  Fixed Costs (4.700.000)
  EBIT 13.753.571
  Tax 35% (4.813.750)
  EAT 8.939.821
OCF 12.011.250
NWC 7.560.000
 Year New PDA+PDA Old
5 Sale 80.000 unit x $360 28.800.000
  COGS 80.000 unit x $155 (12.400.000)
  Gross Profit 16.400.000
  Depreciation $21.500.000 / 7 (3.071.429)
  Fixed Costs (4.700.000)
  EBIT 8.628.571
  Tax 35% (3.020.000)
  EAT 5.608.571
OCF 8.680.000
NWC 5.760.000

Cash Flow
Year OCF NWC Total Cost
0 (22.450.000) - - (22.450.000)
1 12.316.750 8.253.000 4.063.750 (18.386.250)
2 13.750.000 612.000 13.138.000 (5.248.250)
3 14.676.250 135.000 14.541.250
4 12.011.250 (1.440.000) 13.451.250
5 8.680.000 (1.800.000) 10.480.000

5.248 .250
Payback Period ¿ 2+ x 1Tahun
14.541.250
= 2,36 = 2 Tahun 4 Bulan

4.063 .750 13.138 .000 14.541 .250 13.451.250 10.480.000

Profitability Indeks = ( + + + + )/
( 1+0,12 ) ( 1+0,12 )2 ( 1+0,12 )3 (1+ 0,12 )4 ( 1+ 0,12 )5
22.450.000
= 1,73

4.063 .750 13.138 .000 14.541.250 13.451.250 10.480 .000

NPV = ( 22.450 .000 ) + + + + +
(1+0,12) (1+0,12)2 (1+ 0,12)
3
(1+0,12)
4
(1+0,12)
5

= Rp 16.497.201,91

IRR
Jika Rate 36%
4.063 .750 13.138 .000 14.541.250 13.451.250 10.480 .000
NPV = ( 22.450 .000 ) + + + + +
(1+0,3 6) (1+ 0,3 6)2 (1+ 0,3 6)3 (1+0,3 6)4 (1+0,3 6)5
NPV = 44.506.421

Jika Rate 37%

4.063 .750 13.138 .000 14.541.250 13.451.250 10.480 .000
NPV = ( 22.450 .000 ) + + + + +
(1+0,3 7) (1+0,3 7)2 (1+ 0,37)3 (1+0,3 7)4 (1+0,3 7)5
NPV = 44.061.061

44.506 .421
IRR = 36% + x (37%-36%)
44.506 .421−44.061.061
IRR = 24,02%
Seberapa sensitif NPV terhadap perubahan harga PDA baru?
Jika penjualan naik 10% maka
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Sales 43.929.000 47.745.000 49.500.000 41.580.000 31.680.000
COGS (19.270.000) (20.125.000) (19.375.000) (16.275.000) (12.400.000)
CM 24.659.000 27.620.000 30.125.000 25.305.000 19.280.000
Depr (3.071.429) (3.071.429) (3.071.429) (3.071.429) (3.071.429)
Fix cost (4.700.000) (4.700.000) (4.700.000) (4.700.000) (4.700.000)
EBIT 16.887.571 19.848.571 22.353.571 17.533.571 11.508.571
Tax (5.910.650) (6.947.000) (7.823.750) (6.136.750) (4.028.000)
EAT 10.976.921 12.901.571 14.529.821 11.396.821 7.480.571
OCF 14.048.350 15.973.000 17.601.25 14.468.25 10.552.000
0 0
NWC 8.785.800 9.549.000 9.900.00 8.316.00 6.336.000
0 0
Change 8.785.800 763.200 351.000 (1.584.000) (1.980.000)
NWC
Total 5.262.550 15.209.800 17.250.250 16.052.250 12.532.000
CF

5.262.550 15.209 .800 17.250 .250 16.052 .250 12.532 .000

NPV = -22.450.000 + + + + +
(1+0,12) (1+0,12)2 (1+0,12)3 (1+0,12)4 (1+0,12)5
= -22.450.000 + 46.414.741
= 23.964.741

Perbandingan NPV = (23.964.741 - 16.497.202) / 16.497.202

= 7.467.539 / 16.497.202
= 45,27%

45,27 %
Sensitivitas NPV terhadap Price Sales = = 453%
10 %

Seberapa sensitif NPV terhadap perubahan kuantitas yang terjual pada PDA baru?
Jika kuantitas penjualan produk naik 10% maka
 Sales 46.859.400 51.507.000 54.450.000 45.738.000 34.848.000
COGS (20.417.000) (21.597.500) (21.312.500) (17.902.500) (13.640.000)
CM 26.442.400 29.909.500 33.137.500 27.835.500 21.208.000
Depr (3.071.429) (3.071.429) (3.071.429) (3.071.429) (3.071.429)
Fix cost (4.700.000) (4.700.000) (4.700.000) (4.700.000) (4.700.000)
EBIT 18.670.971 22.138.071 25.366.071 20.064.071 13.436.571
Tax (6.534.840) (7.748.325) (8.878.125) (7.022.425) (4.702.800)
EAT 12.136.131 14.389.746 16.487.946 13.041.646 8.733.771
OCF 15.207.560 17.461.175 19.559.375 16.113.075 11.805.200
NWC 9.371.880 10.301.400 10.890.000 9.147.600 6.969.600
Change nwc 9.371.880 929.520 588.600 (1.742.400) (2.178.000)
Total CF 5.835.680 16.531.655 18.970.775 17.855.475 13.983.200

5.835.680 16.531.655 18.970 .775 17.855 .475 13.983 .200

NPV = -22.450.000 + + + + +
(1+0,12) (1+ 0,12)2 (1+0,12)3 (1+0,12)4 (1+0,12)5
= -22.450.000 + 51.174.306
= 28.724.306

Perbandingan NPV = (28.724.307 - 16.497.202) / 16.497.202

= 12.227.105 / 16.497.202
= 74,12%

74,12%
Sensitivitas NPV terhadap Kuantitas = = 741%
10 %