Clinical Simulation in Nursing (2020) 48, 94-95

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Short Communication

Making Sense of Methods and

Measurements: Simple Linear Regression
Susan K. Prion, EdD, RN, CNE, CHSE, Associate Dean and Professora,*,
Katie A. Haerling, PhD, RN, CHSE, Associate Professorb
a
School of Nursing and Health Professions University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94117-1216
b
Nursing and Healthcare Leadership, University of Washington Tacoma, Tacoma, WA 98402-3100

KEYWORDS Abstract: Simple linear regression is a statistical technique that allows us to predict the relationship
linear regression; between two variables: the predictor variable (x) and the response or results variable (y).
statistics;
prediction; Cite this article:
correlation; Prion, S. K., & Haerling, K. A. (2020, November). Making sense of methods and measurements: Simple
relationship linear regression. Clinical Simulation in Nursing, 48(C), 94-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.ecns.2020.07.004.
Ó 2020 International Nursing Association for Clinical Simulation and Learning. Published by Elsevier
Inc. All rights reserved.

Simple Linear Regression

In a previous column, we described using correlation to

quantify the strength of relationship between two variables
of interest (Prion & Haerling, 2014). Correlation is calcu-
lated with values already measured. But what if you want
to predict a value for one of the variables that you have
not measured? For example, a group of senior-level students Figure 1 Scatter plot of learner results showing low and high
are being evaluated in a high-stakes simulation testing situ- degrees of correlation.
ation. The instructor is interested in exploring the relation-
ship between performance and self-reported anxiety. He
calculates a correlation coefficient using a subset of the stu-
dents, measuring performance score and total score on an
anxiety scale. He finds a moderate negative correlation of

0.62 between the two variables, interpreting it to mean
that as self-reported anxiety goes up, performance scores
decrease. Because correlation does not necessarily imply

* Corresponding author: prions@usfca.edu (S. K. Prion). Figure 2 Linear regression line.

1876-1399/$ - see front matter Ó 2020 International Nursing Association for Clinical Simulation and Learning. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecns.2020.07.004
--- 95

Figure 3 Calculation of linear regression.

causation, this result could tance of the line from each point above and below the
Key Points also mean that as perfor- line by squaring the variation score for each point. We
 Linear regression is a mance goes down, anxiety can also calculate this more precisely by determining the
statistical technique rises. At the start of the slope of the line. Slope ¼ the change in the Y value divided
used to describe the next semester, the instructor by the change in the X value. If we can figure out where the
relationship between wants to predict perfor- line intercepts the vertical (Y) access, then we know exactly
two variables. mance scores based on the where to place the line because we already know the slope.
 The predictor variable anxiety scores he collects Putting all of these together gives us the final equation
is represented as x from this new group of for simple linear regression, taking into account the corre-
and the response or students. lation between the two variables, the slope of the line, and
result variable is rep- In this situation, we can the Y axis intercept:
resented as y. use correlation’s ‘‘cousin,’’ So how do we interpret the results? Because of the
 The quality of the simple linear regression, to structure of the linear regression equation, the result will be
linear regression predict what the unknown the predicted value of the Y or criterion variable (perfor-
model depends on value (performance score) mance) for a known X or predictor variable (anxiety). That
the strength of the would be. We can be accu- is useful for individual scores but not helpful in the overall
correlation between rate in our prediction analysis of prediction. What is helpful is knowing how
the two variables. because it is based on the much of the variance in one variable is explained by the
strength of relationship re- other variable. This can be calculated by squaring the
ported by the correlation co- correlation coefficient (r2xy) and multiplying by 100 to
efficient. The stronger the correlation between two items, obtain the percentage. For our example, we can calculate
the better our ability to predict a value with only one of that (0.62)2  100 ¼ (0.384)  100 ¼ 38.4%. So our simu-
those pieces of information. We can use the strength of lation instructor can report that 38.4 % of the variance in
the correlation between two known groups of information the performance scores (X axis) can be explained by
to predict an unknown value of one variable because we knowing the anxiety scores (Y axis).
have calculated a consistent relationship between them. In summary, simple linear regression is an elegant
If we review our visual understanding of correlation, we statistical calculation that helps us predict future variable
can see that the closeness of the cluster of data points values if we know the (strength) amount of correlation
corresponds to the higher absolute value of the correlation between two variables. As you might imagine, there are
coefficient. many uses for this technique in health care and education.
If we draw a line through each scatter plot, we can easily
see that the scatterplot with a high degree of correlation
makes it much easier to know where to draw the line so that
Reference
is as close as possible to each data point. This is known as Prion, S. K., & Adamson, K. (2014). Pearson product moment correlation
the ‘‘least squares’’ method because it minimizes the dis- coefficient. Clinical Simulation in Nursing, 10(11), 587-588.

pp 94-95  Clinical Simulation in Nursing  Volume 48