Role of Civil Enginers in Distaster Mitigation

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ISBN: 978-93-5156-340-2

ROLE OF CIVIL ENGINEERS IN DISASTER


MITIGATION AND MANAGEMENT-
A SWOT ANALYSIS
Arabinda Sharma, Nishant Sharma
Civil Engineering Department, BRCM College of Engineering & Technology, Bahal-127028,
Bhiwani, Haryana, India
Email: arbind_78@rediffmail.com

Abstract over US$24 billion in damage globally. India has been


traditionally vulnerable to natural disaster and around
Disasters, either natural or man-made have severe six crores of people are affected by disasters every
impact on the individual society to the whole nation. year on account of its unique geo-climate conditions
The increasing frequency of disasters has become one (Patil, 2012; Daya, Md. Ayaz, and Lohitkumar, 2011).
Generally, during a large- scale disaster, civil
development of the nation. The ironic fact is that engineering structures like buildings, bridges, dams,
disasters are not avoidable completely. In this roads, water supply projects, coastal structures,
perspective, civil engineering can play crucial role by infrastructure facilities etc are severely affected,
contributing to the disaster management field in two causing immense inconvenience to people and
important ways: in the setting of design and safety disrupting routine life. Natural disasters identify the
standards, and the actual design and construction of mistakes made in the process of development of civil
infrastructure used to prevent damage and losses engineering structures in that particular locality, and
caused by hazards. In this paper the potential role of teach important lessons for the future. If the learning
Civil Engineers in disaster management has been from such undesirable even ts is utilized, hazardous
critically reviewed using SWOT analysis. It has been effects can be reduced in the coming years. Civil
recognized that civil engineers have been in the engineers can play a major role in disaster mitigation
forefront in developing safe built environment, public by creating safe structures through the integrated
policy, global performance-based codes and standards efforts of all those involved in the construction
and research agenda as a mitigation tool to combat process (Patel, 2010).
with various disasters. It has been also realized that
despite of several challenges and constraints, civil The recent occurrence of several disaster events
engineers can play very crucial and even much more have increased the degree of uncertainty faced by
diversified role in disaster management activities. policy makers, challenged emergency arrangements
and raised issues regarding their appropriateness.
Keyword: Disaster management, mitigation, risk Jigyasu (2004) describes an increase in the
assessment, civil engineering, SWOT analysis vulnerability of local communities after the Latur
1993 earthquake in India, where sustainable recovery
1. Introduction interventions were poorly planned and implemented.
As per ASCE (2006), the world of 2025 presents a
Disasters are adverse or unfortunate events or high-risk environment, with the ongoing threat of
great and sudden misfortunes which have a profound large-scale natural disasters and possible acts of
effect on society and the nation. They may occur due terrorism. Moreover, under the worldwide trend of
to natural causes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods urbanization and ever increasing frequency of
or cyclones or due to man-made causes such as disasters, the need for management of State-of-the-art
terrorist attack, war and industrial accidents etc. lifeline system (Water supply, Energy supply, waste
Disasters cause a considerable amount of damage disposal system, transportation system and
around the world each year. The United Nations telecommunication system) has been felt strongly
Human Settlements Programme (UNHSP) notes that (Kameda, 2000). Simultaneously, disaster planners
in the first half of 2001 alone, natural disasters caused have begun to realize the link between disaster and

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economic development of a country. In this


perspective the role of civil engineers in developing
and implementing the disaster management strategies
is paramount (Hamada, 2009). In particular, post-
disaster reconstruction has been the subject of a
significant body of research with particular emphasis
on developing countries that are less able to deal with
the causes and impacts of disasters (Haigh,
Amaratunga and Kerimanginaye, 2006; Pande, 2006).
In this research communication the role of civil
engineers in disaster mitigation has been critically
reviewed using SWOT analysis.

2. Disaster Management and Risk Reduction

Disaster management can be defined as the range Figure 1: Phases of disaster management cycle
of activities designed to maintain control over disaster
and emergency situations and to provide a framework The activities in one phase may overlap those in
for helping at-risk persons to avoid or recover from the previous one. Beginning with mitigating the
the impact of the disaster. Disaster management is a vulnerability and negative impacts of disasters,
cycle of activities that deals with situations that occur preparedness in responding to operations, responding
before, during, and after the disaster. The different and providing relief in emergency situations such as
phases of disaster management are: Mitigation, search and rescue, fire fighting, etc., and aiding in
Preparedness, Response and Recovery (Figure 1). recovery which can includes physical reconstruction
and the ability to return quality of life to a community
after a disaster. Interestingly, the civil engineers can
play important role in all the phases of disaster
management cycle.

(a) (b)

Figure 2. Risk reduction as a disaster mitigation measure

A complete prevention of natural disasters is not community to a particular hazard. Thus, reduction in
possible or even sometime not desirable. The risk to a the undesirable risk/effects of disasters can be a
community on the event of a disaster is basically a promising way to cope with those disasters. It has
function of magnitude of hazard, exposure of the been depicted in the Figure 2.
community to the hazards and the vulnerability of

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3. Role off Civil Engineeering Figure 3. Prosp


pective role off Civil engineeer in
d
disaster reducttion
“Whilee many peoplee are aware oof the terriblee
impact of ddisasters throug ghout the world, few realizee H
However, thee two of thhe most im mportant
that this iss a problem that we can do something g contrributions of civil enginneering to ddisaster
about”. (K Kofi A. Ann an, a UN Secrretary-General, manaagement have been in the setting of coddes and
2004). Reallizing their resp ponsibility, civvil Engineering
g standdards, and the actual design
n and construcction of
community has contrributed to the disasterr infrastructure usedd to prevent damage and losses
managemennt field in several ways. Thhe role of civill causeed by hazards.
engineeringg communities in mitigationn and recovery y
activities foor a given disasster, both naturral and human-- 4. C
Civil Engineeering Contriibution to H
Hazard
caused, is well documen nted (Aktan, 1999; Hamada, R
Reduction – A SWOT analyysis
2009). Firrst, it has contributed
c too our overalll
understandiing of naturall hazards whhich results in n A SWOT anallysis has been carried out to review
better foreccasting of natuural hazards. Seecondly, it hass the sstate-of-art of civil engineeering knowledgge that
contributed to understaand the impaacts and thee can bbe applied to m minimize the effect
e due to ddisaster,
vulnerabilitty of the built environment
e too these hazards. consttraints in iimplementing civil enginneering
These lead to more effecctive disaster pprevention and d practtices and futuure trend and d potential oof civil
mitigation practices an nd preparedness planning. enginneering in mitiigating the variious disasters. SWOT
Finally, it hhas been helpinng communities to reduce thee analyysis basically iinvolves speciffying the objecctive of
risk from naatural and techhnological hazaards. a givven task or projject and identiffying the internnal and
Civil enngineers are at
a the forefrontt in developing g exterrnal factors thaat are favorablle and unfavorrable to
appropriate approaches an nd designs to managing and d achieeve that objecctive. SWOT is an acronyym for
r of civil enngineers for thee
mitigating rrisk. The first role Strenngths, Weakne sses, Opportunnities and Threeats. By
natural dissaster mitigation is the deevelopment off definnition, Strengtths (S) and W Weaknesses (W W) are
technologiees for enhancem ment of infrastructures, such h consiidered to be innternal factors over which yo ou have
as technologgies for the immprovement of soft soil, high-- somee measure of o control. A Also, by deffinition,
performance structures, and warningg and rescuee Oppoortunities (O) and
a Threats (T)) are considereed to be
systems. Thhe second rolle is actual cconstruction off exterrnal factors ovver which youu have essentiaally no
infrastructuures with high h natural disasster resistance. contrrol.
The third roole of civil enggineers is the iinvolvement in n
the rescuue operation n, and resttoration and d 4.1 S
Strength
reconstructiion works after a natural disasters. A
comprehenssive role of civil engineers in disasterr IIn this sectionn the engineeering contribution to
reduction iss depicted in Fiigure 3. hazarrd reduction iss presented byy type of hazarrd. The
potenntial role of civvil engineers inn reducing hazaard due
to eitther natural orr man-made diisaster is hugee and is
preseented in summaarized form in Table 1.

Table 1. Dissaster wise pottential contribuution of Civil Engineers


E

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Disaster type Potential contribution of Civil Engineers

Improving the understanding of earthquakes and their effects. Improving techniques to reduce
Earthquakes seismic vulnerability of facilities and systems (e.g., through the adoption of updated seismic
building codes and better construction practices), and improving seismic hazards identification
(e.g., development of earthquake hazard maps) and risk-assessment methods and their use,
retrofitting of older buildings (Heaney et. al., 2000).
Flood mitigation involves structural and non-structural measures. Civil engineer can contribute
Floods in both ways. The other methods flood control wherein the role of civil engineers is flood
forecasting through watershed simulation, water harvesting etc.
Engineering hazard reduction measures can be taken to minimize the loss of life and property
Cyclone during hurricanes. One of the main threats of a tropical cyclone is the high wind speed.
Engineering design codes are used to insure that buildings and structures are constructed to
withstand particular wind speeds depending on the climatic characteristics of each region. The
design wind speeds have been updated over the years, and in general the new codes require the
use of higher design wind speeds (Cruz et. al., 2001).
Heaney et al. (2000) point out that too often hurricane damage to residential structures is due to
failure of roofing materials, doors and windows, and that these failures lead to weather
penetration and damage. They note that during Hurricane Andrew, most damage losses in
buildings were due to penetration of the weather envelope and not by the failure of major
structural components. ASCE (2006) has incorporated provisions for protecting the building
envelope.
Landslide hazard reduction includes both engineering and non-engineering measures.
Landslide/mass Engineering mitigation measures used include construction of earth-retaining structures,
movement construction of surface water drainage systems, slope surface protection such as hydro-seeding,
sprayed concrete and reinforced concrete grids, and re-compaction of fill slopes (Kwong et al.,
2004). Tunnels, although expensive, usually prove to be cost effective in the long term to avoid
landslide hazard in transportation routes with slope problems (Bhasin et al., 2001). Spiker and
Gori (2005) observe the need to establish standardized codes for excavation, construction and
grading in landslide prone areas.
Droughts involve issues related to the supply and demand of water resources (Hayes et al.,
Drought 2004). Drought hazard mitigation need for a holistic approach involving applications of
sustainable integrated water resources. Engineering approaches include assessment programs,
water supply augmentation and development of new supplies, technical assistance on water
conservation and other water-related activities, and demand reduction/water conservation
programs.
Disaster including acid rain, photochemical smog, global warming, climate change related
Atmospheric phenomena such El Nino, La Nina can be control by sound understanding the interaction of
disaster various environmental pollutant with global atmospheric process. Civil Engineers may develop
techniques which may either reduces the emission of gaseous pollutant or treated the emitted
green house gases and other pollutant more effectively.
Civil engineering being the oldest and most mitigation are discussed with reference to various
diversified branch among all engineering discipline major civil engineering specializations. The major
can play very specific role according to specialization. contributions of civil engineers with specific
In the current section role of engineers in disaster specializations are highlighted in Table 2.

Table 2. Potential role of civil engineers according to specialization

Discipline Potential contribution

Structural Structural engineer should be involved from the planning stage of the structures and should

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Engineering follow all specifications laid down by the Code of Practices. The structural engineer needs to use
the latest methods of analysis and provide well-detailed structural drawings including ductile
detailing. Advanced methods like Performance Based Design (PBD) must be followed for high-
rise and irregular buildings rather than following simple code-based approaches. Advanced
materials like High Performance Concrete, Fiber Reinforced Concrete, Self Compacting
Concrete, Fiber Reinforced Polymers etc. should be used whenever required in the construction
of new buildings and in the retrofitting of existing structures. Soft storeys, floating columns and
other structural irregularities need to be avoided.
Geotechnical Geotechnical engineer should provide a detailed investigation of the subsoil, which would be
Engineering particularly useful for earthquake-resistant design. The site-specific ground response and the
liquefaction potential must be assessed before the planning and execution of a project.
Water resource An irrigation engineer can provide hydrological data for structures like bridges and dams that
Engineering have to be constructed on rivers. A hydraulic engineer can suggest food control measures
including early warning systems. Water resource engineer also play very important role in a
managing and supplying the water during drought. They also help developing efficient water
supply and irrigation techniques not only to lessen the water requirement but also transform a
water deficient region to a water sufficient region.
Transportation Disaster like Earthquakes, landslide, flood etc disrupt transportation highway, railway track etc.
Engineering Damage to lifelines can have detrimental effects on emergency response activities.
Geomatics About 80 % of daily decisions on national or local level, either in economy, finances / taxation,
demography, spatial planning, environment, hazard areas, infrastructure, housing etc. are spatial
in nature. That demonstrates clearly, wide scope of surveyor’s abilities including land
management, geodetic engineering, geo-informatics, satellite technology, and remote sensing can
make an important contribution to improve, simplify and to shorten the disaster management
process. In addition to these engineering skills and knowledge, good governance and capacity
development are central components regarding the process and implementation of disaster risk
management and sustainable development (Magel, 2005).
Environmental Environmental Engineer can help reducing the emission of green house gases and other pollutant
Engineering in surrounding environment; may provided safe drinking water and help keeping overall
sanitation status in the event of disaster.
Construction Construction manager can schedule the activities on site so that there will be enough time,
planning & material and manpower to execute the job. He must also ensure quality control of each activity.
Management The project manager can liaise between all the agencies involved in the execution of the
construction project and should monitor the progress of the project. The importance of improving
the construction industries of developing nations is widely recognized, highlighting a need to
equip them to manage the post-disaster scenario (Ofori, 2000). Construction is typically engaged
in a range of critical activities: temporary shelter before and after the disaster; restoration of
public services such as hospitals, schools, water supply, power, communications, environmental
infrastructure and state administration; and securing income earning opportunities for vulnerable
people in the affected areas (World Bank, 2001).
Architect/City The majority of damage during natural disasters is caused due to the improper planning of
Planer cities and various infrastructure facilities, lack of site investigations

Besides above a Civil Engineer (with or without and to maintenance of necessary documentary
specialization) can diverse capacity at different evidence (in the form of drawings, reports,
positions like such as: photographs etc.) of all construction activities that are
Site supervisors or site engineers execute various undertaken. Risk assessment (before disaster) and
construction activities. It is their responsibility to use damage assessment (after disaster) are other areas
appropriate material and appropriate construction where civil engineers can contribute a lot.
technologies, and get the work done as per the detailed Researcher and Academician: Civil engineers
drawings and specifications. Also ensure that provide critical guidance for determining public policy
materials used in construction like concrete, and defining the research agenda. Civil engineers can
reinforcement (ductile steel) must be tested for quality develop newer and disaster resistant technologies for

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construction of safer built environment with all vital (d) Pressure of time limit
amenities. For this purpose, the civil engineers are (e) Builders not interested in quality
need to keep themselves updated about the latest (f) Inadequate time for investigations and design
research and developments in construction (g) Conflicting interests of the agencies involved
technology, advances in construction materials and (h) Tendering system and specifications
analysis or design procedures. A convenient way of (i) Inadequate resources and adverse working
achieving this goal is by attending seminars, conditions
workshops, training programmes and conferences.
Also civil engineer can involve in training and The above distractions may not allow the civil
teaching basic and applied knowledge required for engineers to follow the standard practices lead to
mitigation of various natural and man-made disaster. corruption and increased hazards during a disaster
Policy makers and planners should prepare the (Penny, 2005). Because of these, a prevalent saying is
development plan of an area considering the that “CIVIL stands for Corruption Is Very Important
vulnerability of the area to various hazards. in Life”. However, a civil engineers (in every role)
Specifications and guidelines for construction should try their best to overcome the above limitations
activities should be carefully laid down particularly and should perform their duty with utmost care which
for vulnerable areas. Before sanctioning any project, may leads to complete paradigm change in
all the details need to be scrutinized by the authorities. engineering practices and the word CIVIL should
A third party check or peer review should be insisted stand for “Courage Is Very Important in Life”.
upon at the design and supervision stages. Local
authorities must check for compliance of the project 4.3 Opportunity
with all the requirements or specifications before
granting Building Use (BU) permission. In spite of several constraints before civil
Once the construction work is completed, it engineering practices, a lot of scope is there to
becomes the responsibility of the users of the improve upon itself. Few collective, long-term actions
buildings to ensure proper maintenance. If any are suggested by ASCE (2006). If those suggestions
addition or alteration in the structure or building use is are substantiated in soul and action then the
required, a structural engineer should be consulted. opportunity for civil engineers can be further
Finally, civil engineers also play an important role in increased many-fold.
post-disaster conditions – in rescue operations, (a) A more robust educational path for civil
damage assessment and the retrofitting of structures. engineers that prepares them for leadership
Civil engineers should also take support from other and provides the multifaceted non-technical
branches of engineering for the better planning, skills to serve on projects affecting the public
execution and functioning of their building and good.
infrastructure projects. (b) A more clearly defined organizational
structure for the engineering team, where the
4.2 Weakness licensed civil engineer takes on the role of
master program/project integrator.
Majority of the disasters occur irrespective of the (c) More civil engineers involved in public
political boundary and cause serious damage to policy forums where future directions for
various civil amenities and disrupt the basic facilities society are developed and where civil
vital for daily life. However, due to poor engineers can gain the public’s trust.
representation civil engineers in political, policy and (d) More civil engineers elected to public office
decision making bodies cause hindrance in the where they can directly influence
development of proper mitigation formulations. infrastructure and sustainability policy and
Besides above, civil engineers face many distractions legislation.
in performing their duties in various roles (Patel, (e) A greater level of collaboration and
2010). Some of these hindrances are: communication among civil engineers and
those non-engineer stakeholders, seeking to
(a) Pressure from political or builders' lobbies balance a sustainable environment with
(b) Inadequate investigation and feasibility studies needed infrastructure.
(c) Delay in sanction of projects and in other (f) Increased research and development to
administrative processes mitigate the effects of natural disasters, with

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civil engineers playing a leading role in training of engineers on ethics in global engineering
devising and implementing the innovations. practice is required to ensure engineers to serve as role
(g) Development and practicing of sound disaster models. After 2001 Bhuj earthquake in India, doctrine
management ethics will help implementing for inclusion of subjects of earthquake engineering in
suggestion more effectively. civil engineering courses had been proposed (Doğan,
(h) More research works are being promoted to 2010; Jain and Sheth, 2002). Recognizing the
understand the mechanism of climate change importance of both housing and roads, the two prime
and its possible effect on the frequency and infrastructure required for the growth of the country,
magnitude of environmental/atmospheric the Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee
disaster. (CBRI) and the Central Road Research Institute, New
To materialize all the above listed suggestions Delhi (CRRI), two prime laboratories of Council of
will be a daunting task that will continue to challenge Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India, is
civil engineering in future. However, an united civil jointly started offering the two year PG research
engineering community can start the hard work that course on “ Engineering ofinfrastructure and Disaster
will ultimately fulfill that promise. The recent trends mitigation” with the aim to promote disaster resistance
in civil engineering profession may also be deciding practice for the infrastructure like buildings and roads.
factor in increasing the potential of civil engineers Recently, a certification and licensing programme for
contribution in disaster management. professional structural engineers are also planned.
Facing daunting issues following multiple Although this licensing programme has not been
global natural and manmade disasters in the first materialized till date, still it can be considered as a
decade of the 21st century, along with an apparent giant step towards improving the safeguard of the built
lack of data pertaining to design, maintenance, and environment.
lessons learned, an international commission was In spite of several challenges and constraints civil
established to define a strategic direction for global engineering will effortlessly continue to contribute to
investment in research and development. As a result, hazard reduction as future human populace will
civil engineers have led the shift from a remedial to become increasingly more complex and
preventive approach. By 2025, the world will become interdependent, and as new threats emerge (e.g.,
a high-risk environment, with the ongoing threat of impacts of climate change, water scarcity, terrorism).
large-scale natural disasters and possible acts of Engineers will be required to apply new knowledge
terrorism. Civil engineers are at the forefront in and skills to develop innovative and effective ways to
developing and applying appropriate approaches and prevent, prepare for, and respond to future disasters.
designs to managing and mitigating risk, realizing that In addressing the variations of local risk, engineers are
high reward can come from high-risk solutions. As per also educating society on the limitations of new
the survey conducted by ASCE (2006), the most technology so that educated decisions can be made on
important issues in terms disaster management that how infrastructure is constructed while also managing
will be impacting civil engineering over the next expectations. Time to time of engineering codes and
two decades are in the order of (a) maintenance of standards to meet the local needs have been also
the existing infrastructure , (b) prevention/mitigation incorporated in disaster reduction policies. Finally, the
of natural disasters, (c) professional licensure of civil entire disaster management processes have witnessed
engineers, and (d) engineering ethics. a paradigm shift recently around the world (Table 3).
Risk is clearly a major driver of innovation, as
engineers evaluate what new materials, processes, and Table 3. The shift in disaster management strategies
designs might be used while weighing the potential for (Pearce, 2003).
failure—balancing risk versus reward. To aid the
process, governments have instituted faster turnaround From To
times for new regulations, permitting ever accelerating Hazards Vulnerability
innovation. Project-specific risk decisions are made at Reactive Proactive
multiple levels as engineers become leaders of Single agency Partnership (Co-
enterprise risk management, with some carrying the ordination)
title of chief risk officer. Various civil Engineering Science driven Multi-disciplinary
professional societies have sensed the heat of future
need and are already started working in this direction. Response management Risk Management
According to Parkash (2012), a greater education and Planning for Planning with
Communities communities

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Communicating to Communicating with go often beyond the imagination. People are often too
communities communities optimistic about risks they are accustomed to but
overreacting to new and unknown risks. The fact that
It is hoped that, all these recent trends and probabilities in most risk analysis projects are partly
activities will certainly act as new stimulus for and sometimes even strongly based on judgments
formulating the future disaster management plan. rather than data is another (Vrouwenvelder et al.,
2001). Recently, climate change has emerged as single
4.4 Threat largest challenge before the engineer working in the
direction of disaster management. The probability of
There are several threats identified from different occurrence of environmental and atmospheric disaster
perspectives that are likely to put challenges to civil is highly susceptible to climate change (Fatima and
engineer community. The very first threat is in the Safdar, 2011; Pittock, 2009). The risks associated with
form of geographical distribution and allocation of climate changes are real but their predictions are
resources during disaster response. Distribution of highly uncertain which make the job of civil engineers
resources during disaster response operations has been even more challenging and cumbersome.
characterized by various shortcomings that inhibit Besides above some other potential threats to
efficient and effective decision making. These sustaining role of civil engineers in disaster mitigation
challenges include prioritization of limited resources, may come from as follows:
vehicle route selection, and resource location tracking. (a) Changing political scenario, international
Limited resources must be distributed efficiently to policies leading armed conflicts, changing
first responders to facilitate lifesaving operations. public policies.
However, the supply of resources such as construction (b) lack of interest or insufficient co-ordination
equipment is usually not able to fulfill the demand in among the different stake holders to share
large-scale disasters. This could lead to additional facilities and information.
damage and casualties. In addition to this, there are (c) Disasters are unpredictable and moreover,
also organizational and managerial challenges. their effect and behavior are also erratic.
Resources owned by different organizations need to (d) Lack of interest and/or awareness in
be accessible and the coordination of resources across construction industry.
them is a major obstacle in disaster response. The lack (e) lack of competent licensing authority to look
of access, standardization, coordination, and after the design criteria and their approval,
communication of critical information for situational corruption construction industry and
awareness and decision making are obstacles that need bureaucracy.
to be addressed (Chen et al., 2011). (f) threats that have been generated by the
Presently, in most rapidly growing megacities process of globalization and subsequent
with high concentration of human exposure and environmental degradation.
physical assets, disaster management is focused on
post-disaster response that pose serious challenges 5. Conclusions
implementation of pre-disaster mitigation strategies
such as planning and construction of new project This paper has critically reviewed the contribution
(Wenzel et al., 2007). Another constraint arises in risk of civil engineering to the field of disaster
assessment which is an important phase in disaster management. From the planning stage to the execution
management cycle. In formulating and quantifying of civil engineering projects, the paramount
risk acceptance criteria, the civil engineering consideration is that care should be taken by all
profession has to deal with clients, politicians, press concerned to ensure public safety in the event of a
and public (http://www.training.fema.gov ). The disaster. The contribution of civil engineering has
communication about these matters is a very complex been utmost importance in the setting of engineering
subject involving highly technical information, codes and standards. The development of engineering
psychology, presentational skills etc. The difficulty is resources, tools, and methodologies for use in
that most laymen in the field of risk analysis do have mitigating the impacts of natural and technological
completely different views on risks. The emphasis is hazards on the built environment is another possible
much more on the magnitude of the consequence then avenue where civil engineers can contribute
on abstract notions like probability and frequency. significantly. However, engineered-hazard mitigation
Especially in low probability high consequence events options alone do not guarantee protection from natural

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