3rd Broad Topic 1

Demographic transition theory

Demographic transition theory – Change in demography in terms of population and
economic change and the whole society’s change when a region goes through
transition phases to reach maturity.
Key concepts -> CBR - crude birth rate CDR - crude death rate. But we will focus on
population dynamics, which is, how to detect change in a population. 3 components –
fertility, mortality and migration. With these 3 we can detect the change in population
whether population will increase or decrease.
(Fecundity: physical capability to produce children)
1) Fertility:
Per year number of children production in a country. Demographers measure the fertility
rate in a variety of ways, which can be broadly broken into "period" measures and
"cohort" measures. "Period" measures refer to a cross-section of the population
in one year and cohort for a decade.

Period measure:
CBR: The crude birth rate is the number of live births occurring among the population of
a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 mid-year total population of
the given geographical area during the same year. One advantage of this indicator
is that is it influenced by the age structure of the population.
2) Mortality:
CDR is the same for death.

To convert these rates into percentage just divide by 10.

This is actually done in calculating
Rate of natural increase =(CBR-CDR)/10
  natural increase is a statistic calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from
the crude birth rate of a given region.
Crude Growth Rate = CBR – CDR (1.2% globally)
Population change = (BR (percentage) + immigration rate) – (DR (percentage) +
Emigration rate)
Inference – Underdeveloped and developing countries have higher RNI. Developed
have lower RNI. South Asian and African and south American countries will increase
the worlds population.
3) Human Migration:
Movement of people from one place to another.
i) Neoclassical Economic theory:
Main reason behind migration is wage difference between two geographic locations.
Explain migration with Neoclassical economic theory:
Main reason for labor migration is wage difference between 2 geographic location.
People will migrate from low income regions to high income regions. Here migration is
the mainly happens due to higher wage of jobs.
ii) Dual Labor Market theory:
Migration is mainly caused by pull factors (job opportunities, service facilities,
educational facilities, income facilities -> rural to urban pull) in developed countries. A
counter push factor happens in underdeveloped areas. (lack of above facilities)
Explain migration with dual labor market theory:
Developed regions have primary labor market (professional job, posh job, creative job)
and secondary labor market (low wage job). There is a dual economy system.
Secondary labor market pulls the mass from underdeveloped to developed region.
That’s why it’s called Dual labor market theory. Here migration is the mainly happens
due to availability of jobs.
iii) New Economics of Labor Migration:
Explain migration with Labor Migration theory:
Migration can be viewed as a result of risk aversion on the part of a household that has
insufficient income. Migrate to avoid risks related to insufficient income.
The demographic transition in 5 stages:
This is used to check the economic change in a region.
Pre-Industrial stage low income:
Economy is dependent on agricultural work. There is a natural balance (automatically
death rate and birth rate high so population increase is low)
Pyramid: Younger generation is dominant.
Transitional stage low middle:
This society introduces a lot of facilities so death rate drops and the birth rate remains
the same so population increases.
Pyramid: 15-35 generation is dominant. Working populations number is high. This is
called demographic dividend. MUST USE THIS OPPORTUNITY. If we cant then people
will migrate from this country
Industrial Stage middle income:
Birth rate falls and death rate falls slowly. Population increase grabs attention so it
brings forth a lot of change in market, education etc. and so the system tries to
decrease the birth rate. Economy is on industry not service yet.
Pyramid: 15-35 generation is dominant. Working populations number is high. This is
called demographic dividend. MUST USE THIS OPPORTUNITY. If we can’t then
people will migrate from this country
Transitional Stage high middle income:
Maximum people are educated and right before post industrial phase there we see an
Artificial Balance (people understand that population is increasing too much)
Pyramid: Old people who are called depended population. Aging problem. Like in japan,
Europe, USA. To overcome this, countries try to migrate skilled people from outside.
Post Industrial Stage high income:
Birth rate start rising again. Economy is dependent on service. People are more of
urban population.
Pyramid: Old people who are called depended population. Aging problem. Like in japan,
Europe, USA. To overcome this, countries try to migrate skilled people from outside.
* In the 2nd and 3rd stage we will see a natural increase of total population. *
Rural Production society to Urban Consumer society.