The Systematic Approach

to Tailings Management
CIM ESRS Online Workshop Series
June 3 through June 19, 2020
Workshop Series Sequence
June 3 Introduction & TSF Scope – DONE!

June 5 Tailings Management Systems & Role of Technology – DONE!

June 10 The People Side of Tailings Management Systems – DONE!

June 12 Risk Identification & Management Strategies – DONE!

June 17 Risk Management & Technologies – Field Applications

June 19 Risk Informed Decision Making, Panel & Series Close!

June 12, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

Today’s Presentations
Risk Management - Communication & Application
Colleen Crystal

TSF Remote Monitoring Pilot Project

Greg Puro

Interactive at specific times… have you had your coffee yet?? 

June 12, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop
What challenges are often encountered when new
strategies or technologies are introduced?

June 12, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

RISK MANAGEMENT
TECHNOLOGIES – FIELD
APPLICATIONS
BP & Coffee Cup Management

Tony Hayward, Ph.D. Geologist

When Tony Hayward became CEO of BP in 2007, BP was still recovering from a 2005 fire at its Texas City refinery
that killed 15 people—one of the worst industrial accidents in recent memory.

Hayward—a skilled geologist and dedicated BP lifer—was meant to be a practical antidote to the flashy, globe-
trotting outgoing CEO Lord John Browne

Hayward would change BP’s careless corporate culture; he pledged in an early speech to focus “like a laser” on
safety.

- Time Magazine, 2010

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill •

•
loss of 11 lives

costs to BP of upwards of 44
April 20, 2010 billion dollars

 called into question the entire

oil industry's fitness to
operate, especially in pristine
environments

the accident was one “that all our

corporate deliberations had told
us simply could not happen. For
BP, this was the ultimate low-
probability, high-impact event”

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 “Hayward’s story reflects a common problem -
risk management is reduced to a functionary or
compliance issue” (Kaplan and Mikes, 2012).

“management failures that crippled the ability of

individuals involved to identify the risks they
faced and to properly evaluate, communicate,
and address those risks”.
-U.S. Presidential Commission Report
COMMUNICATING RISK
 Dam Safety Inspection – Visual Checklist

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 SIGBAR Module Purpose of the What should be evaluated
Module

DOCUMENTATION Grouping, classifying, Check the physical conditions of the storage

organizing, registering (it has adequate physical protection, including

KPIs
and making available against fire, for example).
documents related to Check for back-up of electronic information.
dams. Check that the access conditions are
restricted.

“25 minimum reports”

Check what is archived and if you lack
records of documents.
Check the quality of the archived
documentation (if legible, and covers all
stages of the reservoir: construction,
operation, monitoring and studies)
MONITORING Development of In the face of the best practices and available
activities and technologies, check if our monitoring program
registration of is adequate (from visual inspection, installed

10 Elements of a Safe Dam

geotechnical monitoring instrumentation and defined periodicity)
of the dam. Check that the proposed monitoring is being
carried out in full.

• Minimum design criteria EVALUATION Development of

assessment and
Verify that the recommended maintenance
actions in the security assessment reports

• Minimum surveillance and inspection

recording of dam and stability statements are being fulfilled.
behavior and safety. Check how is the record of this compliance
(traceability).

• Min. Required documentation

Evaluate the operation of the process of
evaluation of the data by EOR (flow of data
reception until the issuance of the report.

• Minimum training
Check that the time spent by the consulting
firm is adequate.

VISUAL Provide the main Check if the content available in the

MANAGEMENT information on the dams management board is adequate or if there is a
in an on-site better way of exposing it.
management framework Check if there is any relevant data that needs

“30 Diagnostic Points”

for the entire team to be included in the cash management table.
responsible for Set default information that should be
managing the dam. available.
Assess whether the available data is in a
language appropriate to the public.

OPERATION Documentation of the Check that the contents of the Operation

Operational Manual of Manual are adequate.

Min. Corporate Commitment (Self- the dams, defining the

directives and the
operational controls.
Check that the guidelines in the manual are
followed.
Check if there is any routine activity in the

Performance Checklists) reservoir that is not covered by the Manual.

Consider interviews with each unit's
operational and control team.
Check the adherence of the operations
manual to the characteristics and designs of
the respective buses.

“In general, more data on the dam will reduce

uncertainties….”
June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop
Preventable Risks
IF, your definition of risk is “the effect of uncertainty on
objectives” (ISO 31000)

THEN, preventable risks are:

• risks that are controllable and ought to be
eliminated or avoided.

• can and should be monitored and controlled

through rules, values, standards of practice,
standard compliance tools and best
management practices (or Best Available
Technologies) to reduce uncertainties.

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Strategic Risks
An alternate definition of Risk

Risk = Likelihood of Failure p(f) x

Consequence of Failure

Strategic risks can not be managed by a rules-

based approach, no matter the industry…
-(Kaplan & Mikes, 2012)

Strategic Risks = risks undertaken with the

objective of economic advantage or gain

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

Continuous Risk Management

Risk /Scenario Evaluation Bow-ties, PFMAs, FMEAs, PRAs

Risk Management Plan

• Identify KPI’s and Critical controls (including essential
functions)
• Risk registers as checklists

NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, 2017

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Systems Engineering
“the elements or parts can include people, hardware, software,
facilities, policies, documents; that is all things required to produce
systems level results”

Recent Failures all had issues with:

INVESTIGATIONS
DESIGN
CONSTRUCTION
OPERATIONS and MANAGEMENT

“the art is knowing when and where to probe…”

NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, 2017

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop
 Understanding the
Subjective Nature of
Qualitative Evaluations

(0.03, 0.1,0.3, 1, 3) risk = 10^0.1 = 1.25 = rare….???

from 0.3 to 1.0 double risk
from 1 to 3 increasing 100 -fold
from 3 to 10 increasing risk by 1,000-fold

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

Binning..

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Potential Failure Mode Analysis
• Potential Failure Mode Analysis (PFMA) process adopted by the FERC in 2002.

• All High and Significant Hazard Dams in FERC’s inventory currently have
PFMAs.

Definition of a PFM

• A specific chain of events leading to a dam failure.

• The FERC defines a failure as an uncontrolled release of water. Therefore, a

The FERC Dam Safety Program Risk- failure does not need to be a complete and catastrophic failure of the dam.
Informed Decision-
Making Program • The PFM should be developed with no regard of likelihood or possibility.

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

PFMA - Scenarios
• Typically done in a team setting with a diverse group of
qualified personnel for the dam.
• Facilitator (senior-level engineer) elicits possible potential
failure modes based on the team’s understanding of
vulnerabilities of the dam.
• Facilitator (senior-level engineer) makes sure each potential
failure mode is understood and described thoroughly from
initiation to failure.
• Post large scale drawings/sections on the walls and sketch
out the potential failure modes (as appropriate).
• One time in life where negative thinking is encouraged!

Think of every way the dam can fail.

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

FERC Guidance on Screening for Risk Estimates:

General failure mode risk development or disposition statements:

• Failure is in progress or imminent (“forget” risk analysis and take

interim action).

• Failure mode is credible (carry forward for risk estimates).

• Insufficient information to determine credibility (carry forward for
risk estimates, perform sensitivity analyses on key parameters and
determine if more analyses or investigations are required).

• Failure mode is not credible (do not carry forward for risk
estimates)
 Risk Communication

NASA, 2017

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

PROJECT EXAMPLES
Hazards/Threats Identification

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Risk Management Plan

Use Bow-Tie Charts To Capture Causes, Consequences and Critical Controls

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

can minimize risk by minimising either probability of
failure, or consequences, or both.
Risk Management Plan

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Risk Communication
Living Document

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Technical Risk Assessment - Scenarios
Risk analysis can take many forms, ranging from
qualitative risk identification (essentially scenarios
and consequences, without performing detailed
quantification of likelihood using techniques such as
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and fault
trees), to highly quantitative methods such as PRA.

The analysis stops when the technical

case is made; if simpler, more qualitative methods
suffice, then more detailed methods need not be
applied.

The process is then identified, planned for, and

continuously
checked.
NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, 2017
June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop
 TOOLBOX…
• ORE2-Tailings© Platform (RISKOPE)
• semi-quantitative/semi-empirical risk assessment

• Inputs
 TOOLBOX…
• Outputs

ORE2Tailings (Riskope,2020)
 Risk Tolerance…

Annual Probability of Failure Risks for Selected Engineering Projects

(Whitman, 1984)

“.. The panel firmly rejects that

business as usual can continue..”

21 executives (CEO, board members

and employees ) of Samarco, BHP,
Vale and one consulting firm indicted
for culpable homicide
 Risk Cost =
Likelihood of
Failure x Cost
of Failure

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

 Thank you

June 3, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

TSF REMOTE MONITORING
PILOT PROJECT
A CASE STUDY
Jan 25, 2019 – a day that will never be forgotten. Dam
practitioners around the world took great pause. Vale
practitioners were no exception. Everywhere people
asked – what could be done differently and what are we
missing?

The talk today focuses on one aspect of our response

and the successes and failures therein ………
PROJECT BACKGROUND
A series of brainstorming sessions were undertaken
Exploring the question of “what could we do better?”
Reviewing available technologies and emerging
technologies

One avenue selected (among others) – displacement

monitoring using satellite scans

PROJECT INCEPTION
The Goal – A long term (~5 year) contract with a single
service provider to provide monitoring services at all VBM
sites globally

The Path – Pilot 3 sites with 3 service providers for 12

months

Create an assessment matrix to evaluate and select best

PROJECT TRIAL - SCOPE
service provider
Project timelines
• Project scoped “on the spot”
• No front-end loaded, feasibility or R&D work to
support
• Crisis response driving timelines

PROJECT LEARNINGS
The approach to the trials:
• Applies to both suppliers and owners
• Overpromise and underdeliver – people feel
disappointment and engagement wanes
• Underpromise and overdeliver – project may not get
past inception stage

PROJECT LEARNINGS
The danger of assumptions
• I know dam displacement therefore I must
understand satellite monitoring limitations!
• All of these service providers are interchangeable!

PROJECT LEARNINGS
Seek first to understand before committing
• What are the technological limitations?
• Level of accuracy, snow, water, vegetation etc
• How do the competitors differ?

PROJECT LEARNINGS
Comparison of service providers
• Apples vs apples comparison
• Service providers capabilities
• How to rate quality when they are gauging different
sites?

PROJECT LEARNINGS
Does it work?!?
• What is the data telling us?
• What does it mean?
• Does it match actual performance expectations?

PROJECT LEARNINGS
Thank you for your attention!

QUESTIONS?
Closing
Next session, we will hear from our keynote speaker:

Angela Küpper
Presenter Panel led by Diana Sollner

Thank you for your participation!

We look forward to seeing you again on Friday…

June 12, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

How did we do?

June 12, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop

June 12, 2020 2020 Tailings Workshop