Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E.

1 Combining Foresight methods for long term planning: An example for their
2 application in the 2050 EU rail vision
3
4 Submission date: August 1st 2014
5
6 Number of words: 6,179 + 2 figures × 250 + 3 tables × 250 = 7,429
7
8 First and corresponding author: Lucia Mejia-Dorantes, Ph.D.
9 Affiliation: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
10 Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems
11 Address: Breslauer Straße 48
12 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
13 Phone: (+49) 721 6809-653
14 e-mail: lucia.mejia-dorantes@isi.fraunhofer.de
15
16
17 Second author: Claus Doll, Ph.D.
18 Affiliation: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
19 Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems
20 Address: Breslauer Straße 48
21 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
22 Phone: (+49) 721 6809-354
23 e-mail: claus.doll@isi.fraunhofer.de
24
25
26 Third author: Ewa Dönitz, Ph.D.
27 Affiliation: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
28 Business Unit Foresight for Strategy Development
29 Competence Center Foresight
30 Address: Breslauer Straße 48
31 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
32 Phone: (+49) 721 6809-396
33 e-mail: ewa.doenitz@isi.fraunhofer.de
34
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 2

1 ABSTRACT
2
3 Long term planning in transportation remains a difficult task due to the lack of rigor in strategic
4 planning, especially when considering elements such as uncertainties of the future, risks and
5 societal changes, among others. Foresight has been in many cases an intuition exercise rather
6 than an exercise based in a method based on a sophisticated theoretical concept. This paper
7 presents the usefulness of combining many foresight techniques jointly in the transport sector by
8 using as an empirical case study the EU rail 2050 vision, in order to analyze which strategic
9 measures may be useful to achieve the 2050 European objectives. The aim is to develop concrete
10 policy guidelines for local, regional, national and European authorities on how to improve the
11 integration of rail in order to achieve a sustainable urban development with implications on
12 environment and society. Concrete steps for the coming years are presented to support decision
13 makers in shaping their planning policies. We focus on low density and peripheral regions,
14 where boosting rail transport is more challenging than in high density and central areas.
15
16
17
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 3
1
2 INTRODUCTION
3
4 Reducing CO2 emissions from transport is a challenge we are facing in the next years. To
5 highlight its commitment to this endeavor, the European Commission (EC) stipulates in its latest
6 Whitepaper on Transport (1) a target of a 60 percent reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG)
7 emissions in transport by 2050. It proposes to shift to rail passenger and freight journeys, since it
8 is a far more climate-friendly transport. More explicitly: by 2030 a share of 30% of medium
9 distance passenger trips and 30% of medium to long distance freight movements should move by
10 rail and waterway transport; while by 2050 this should be the case for the majority of trips and
11 consignments.
12
13 In order to obtain the expected results, many European countries have started to promote
14 the use of environmentally friendly transport modes, including rail. Likewise, the social behavior
15 of people and companies is changing. People in cities tend to use more and more multimodal
16 transportation chains (with rail as a backbone) for their daily mobility (work, household
17 activities, leisure). Moreover, the EU has launched many European projects to understand these
18 changes (i.e. FP7 project USEmobility (2)) and to address the future of transportation, risks,
19 necessary policies, and the EU vision (i.e. 5; 4; 3; 6, among others).
20
21 Regarding long distances, high speed passenger rail is becoming a more competitive
22 alternative to car and airplane. In the case of the freight sector, rail is especially attractive for
23 linking major commercial ports to logistic centers in industrialized corridors, although we must
24 state that the concept of “green logistics” is lagging behind the “greening of passenger
25 transport”. In other words, even though a huge progress has been made in curbing the emissions
26 of passenger cars and trucks, and despite the high investments in road safety programs and
27 aviation noise abatement, recent studies reveal there is still a huge gap between rail and its
28 competitors in terms of the external effects of transport (7).
29
30 The diagnoses for this are manyfold, such as an increasing individualization of mobility
31 patterns, the breakdown of bulk goods markets into small parcel businesses, the liberalization of
32 the road sector and no real internalization of the external costs of transport, among others. On the
33 other hand, rail transport in its current form requires expensive, long lasting infrastructures and
34 appears less flexible in terms of rapidly changing mobility patterns and production structures.
35 Way more than road, air and shipping, the railway business is taking over a high share of fixed
36 costs from their networks and rolling stock. The decline of demand, noticed excessively after
37 road liberalization in the 1990s, has increased the production costs (passenger or ton kilometer).
38
39 Moreover, in recent years there have been brought about new cooperative forms of
40 collective private travel, initiating significant changes in peoples’ mobility behavior (8; 9), and
41 modifying the attitude towards car ownership in early industrialized countries (10). In freight
42 transport, customers’ demand and the promotion of labels for sustainable transport have fostered
43 green logistics. These developments may help to re-vitalize railways in both local and long
44 distance markets for passenger and freight transport, not only for high density areas, commonly
45 located in the European centre and having above-average GDP per capita figures, but also for the
46 low density, peripheral and lower income ones.
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 4

1
2 However, a stronger political agreement at national level in all the EU countries is
3 needed, taking into account the wide range of stakeholders, in order to agree on a sustainable
4 transport vision for 2050. This includes re-thinking the strong link between car use, car
5 ownership and the role of the automotive industry as a motor for the economy and a provider of
6 work places. Economic model applications have shown that green transport can take over this
7 position (6; 11), which means we are facing a re-structuring rather than a curbing of economic
8 activity. The changes will not happen automatically, they need (political) action to raise people’s
9 perception, concerning their view on mobility and technical development, and to set priorities for
10 sustainable structures and life styles.
11
12 For all these reasons, foresight methods, such as scenarios or roadmaps are required to
13 prepare the necessary steps to achieve these goals. Thus, politicians at different levels will be
14 able to prepare and propose the correct policy initiatives while encouraging the dialogue and
15 cooperation between different stakeholders and policy makers to achieve certain targets.
16
17 Even thought there is an extensive literature on foresight in many sectors (12; 13), and
18 though a good number of transport related publications use titles like “foresight” or “roadmap”
19 “visioning” (21; 20; 14; 16; 18; 15; 17; 19), to our knowledge, there is a lack of scientific
20 reports on the combination of sophisticated scenarios, vision and roadmap in the transport sector.
21 In this paper our final intention is to discuss the usefulness of these techniques jointly in the
22 transport sector by using as an empirical case study the EU rail 2050 vision, in order to analyze
23 which strategic measures may be useful to achieve the European 2050 objectives. For space
24 efficiency we focus on low density and peripheral regions where boosting rail transport is
25 commonly way more difficult than in high density and central areas.
26
27 This paper is divided into 6 sections. After the introduction, section 2 explains the
28 methodology and theoretical background. Afterwards, section 3 presents their application for the
29 case of the European rail. Section 4 and 5 presents the highlights on the evolution and on the
30 measures to achieve the 2050 targets in the case of low density regions. Finally, section 6
31 exposes the concluding remarks and the final discussion.
32
33 METHODOLOGY AND THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
34
35 As commented by Weber (22), policy requires more strategic and forward-looking approaches in
36 order to deal with societal risks and changes, uncertainties and dynamics. Several attempts have
37 been made to develop different approaches to understand and deal with future challenges,
38 especially when they are over the long term. He also considers that the process of policy
39 development and design still lies on retrospective learning and intuition, without systematic and
40 strategic bases. Recent developments in foresight and strategic planning prove that they are an
41 extremely useful tool to overcome these issues. Even if advantages and disadvantages are
42 discussed by many authors (23; 22), drawbacks may be better tackled when different
43 methodologies are used to diminish the lack of rigor in the information provided from qualitative
44 sources (such as when only workshops are carried out).
45
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 5

1 Different elements of foresight are used in this study: scenario methods, visioning,
2 roadmapping and simulation. These strongly interlinked elements are defined in the following
3 sections.
4
5 Foresight
6 Under "Foresight" we understand the structured exploration of complex futures (24). Foresight is
7 a systematic approach that makes use of all methods of future research (25). Foresight doesn´t
8 make deterministic predictions, but focuses on both normative (e.g. visions) and exploratory (e.g.
9 scenarios) aspects. It helps anticipate future developments (26), has an important role as a
10 coordination mechanism for planning the future and it is a very supportive instrument to
11 transform policy-making into a more focus-oriented approach to develop strategies and
12 anticipate changes (22).
13
14 Foresight also means the interaction of relevant actors who shape the long-term future
15 and actively prepare themselves for it. For this purpose new methods are constantly developed or
16 known methods are further developed. In foresight processes the systemic context is mostly
17 involved. That means that the look into the future is always broad and comprehensive, including
18 multiple perspectives (27). At the same time “foresight” is open to different paths into the future
19 and considers alternative developments. Rather than a single future, different alternative futures
20 are typically considered, on which decision-makers can either get ready or make it possible. Still
21 it is important to understand what kind of future is being examined: (i) the possible future or
22 possible futures, (ii) the likely future or (iii) the desirable future (24).
23
24 Different methods are used in foresight processes at all levels: international, national,
25 regional, in companies, associations or other organizations (28; 25). Each of them may have
26 different goals (30; 25; 31; 29). According to the phases of foresight processes the following
27 distinction of foresight methods can be made: (i) SWOT analysis, environmental scanning or
28 trend analysis for the diagnosis (i.e. Where do we come from? Where are we now? What is
29 happening? Where? What are the existing patterns); (ii) Scenarios, Delphi surveys, cross impact
30 analysis or simulation for the exploration (What are our possibilities? What is expected? What
31 may happen?); (iii) Visioning or roadmapping for the prescription (Where do we want to go?
32 How do we get there? How to be prepared for the future?).
33
34 Combining foresight methods for complex questions, in particular scenarios with
35 roadmapping, has gained popularity in recent years (35; 32; 34; 33). Although a combination of
36 three or more methods is proposed in the foresight theory (36), it occurs less frequently in the
37 applied literature (37). Herein we combine four exploration and prescription methods, such the
38 scenario method, visioning, roadmapping and simulation, combining qualitative and quantitative
39 methods, and therefore its originality.
40
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 6

1 Visioning and Scenarios

2 Vision
3 Generally a vision describes an idealized desirable future of a specific system that is substantially
4 different from the status quo (38). A vision is relevant to the actors concerned and thereby
5 motivates, inspires and directs actions towards the vision. In the business, policy maker and civil
6 society communities, shared visions are increasingly recognized as highly relevant for initiating
7 transition processes and achieving goals. Even though different practitioners use different
8 visioning approaches they share certain elements such as exploration of individual and personal
9 visions, investigation of shared values, assessing the legacy of the past and exploring dreams for
10 the future. Very often visioning involves visual and other creative elements as a catalyst of
11 expressing wishes and values. According to Bezold et al. (38) a vision plays different roles:
12 • Describes the preferred future of a group
13 • Specifies a direction, which is described by ambitious goals
14 • It is based on the common values and goals of a group
15 • Supports the common takeoff into the uncertain future
16
17 Scenarios
18 A scenario methodology complements and extends conventional forecasting methods. As a
19 planning tool, it is particularly useful when strategic decisions need to be made within the
20 context of specific societal, economic or political framework conditions and when developments
21 in these spheres cannot be predicted over a lengthy period of time. Even though it is not possible
22 to predict the future precisely, a scenario methodology can be used to develop plausible pictures
23 of the future, commonly referred to as scenarios (39). A scenario postulates a possible future
24 situation, for example potential circumstances in which a company will be operating, and
25 describes the framework conditions for that (18; 40). Moreover, scenario building and evaluation
26 are useful to support vision building in order to design the decision-making process (41).
27
28 In most cases scenarios are a starting point for further activities and not the aim itself.
29 Depending on the scenario purpose the results of a scenario process may be used to design a
30 particular policy; however they may also be incorporated into operational and strategic planning.
31 Its utility is linked to a continuous process. It is not enough to develop scenarios and identify
32 paths to the future. Its development must be continuously monitored and modified if necessary.
33
34 According to Dönitz (42) scenarios are useful for a number of different reasons:
35 • They enable planners in research institutions, companies and other organizations
36 to develop an awareness of requirements that may emerge in a future world, thus
37 helping them to identify potential new groups of customers and competitors
38 • They may systematically reduce the complexity of a given field of analysis
39 • In addition to deepening knowledge, they may also reveal the limits of current
40 knowledge, i.e. by showing up gaps and ambiguities
41 • They highlight future opportunities and risks and even draw the attention to
42 existent ones which have not been yet recognized
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 7

1 • They support internal communication processes

2 • They provide a solid basis for reviewing strategies that have been adopted and at
3 the same time serve as a starting point for developing new strategies
4 • They describe framework conditions to evaluate technologies by pointing out
5 drivers and barriers for their future development
6
7 Roadmapping
8 Roadmaps provide decision-makers from business, science and politics a structured overview of
9 framework conditions (e.g. political and societal) along with information on innovation
10 developments (relevant actors, competitors, technologies) and their corresponding relationship.
11 Unlike other operational planning tools, roadmapping was not developed from scientific theory,
12 but from operating in practice in the late 60’s. The term "roadmap", in analogy to a road or street
13 map, refers to an arrangement of paths or connections between different developments over a
14 certain period of time (43). Roadmapping is originally a method to support technology
15 development by structuring technologies and identifying their linkages according to a timeline
16 used by private and public institutions with their own specificities: subject, scope, field of
17 research, target group, and orientation (explorative vs. normative; technology-oriented vs.
18 problem-oriented) (44).
19
20 The outcomes of a roadmapping process are graphical representations of objects, such as
21 markets, technologies, products or resources and competences representing state of knowledge
22 and their interdependencies which link the current development trends to the future. The most
23 important benefits of roadmapping processes are:
24 • The roadmap is an ideal form to display a lot of complex and interrelated
25 information in a single picture. All the information is visible at once, in
26 chronological order, and therefore conclusions can be drawn in a more substantial
27 manner (45)
28 • Certain patterns of interpretation are typical and unique for a roadmap. The proper
29 sequence of occurrence of expected developments can easily be checked here. If
30 inconsistencies are detected solutions can be discussed directly, thus “hot topics”
31 and “blind spots” become visible. All these interpretations allow to define actions
32 and to design a strategy accordingly (43)
33
34 A proven best practice is to combine scenarios or visions with roadmaps with both
35 forecasting and backcasting as a bidirectional approach. Forecasting is used to determine the
36 possible implications of a particular hypothesis, certain conditions in terms of impact
37 assessment; while backcasting determines the conditions that are necessary to achieve certain
38 goal (46). Backcasting is often applied when one or more developed scenarios describe desirable
39 futures to work backwards and identify major events and decision that generated these futures.
40
41 Simulation
42 Simulation is a set of tools used to evaluate and link certain activities to a specific future (41).
43 Simulation and modeling are mainly used for systematic analysis of complex relationships. The
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 8

1 behavior and interaction of different variables is simulated, mostly using quantitative tools. In
2 the context of future research, simulation models are used to represent non-linear dynamics to
3 quantify variables and their effects. There are three main types of models (47): (i) System
4 dynamics models usually used to quantify variables; (ii) agent-based modeling to simulate the
5 behavior of individual actors and their interaction; (iii) specific qualitative models to represent
6 the uncertainty of the future. Recent research has been focused more on the integration of
7 qualitative and quantitative models to a hybrid approach.
8
9 System dynamics is a methodology for modeling, simulation, analysis and design of
10 dynamic, complex issues ("dynamic complexity") in socio-economic systems and decision
11 making processes (48; 49). Moreover, system dynamic models may be used to conduct scenario
12 analyses of different policy interventions and their predicted ex-ante impact on the system over
13 time (50).
14
15 THE EUROPEAN RAIL SITUATION AND ITS FUTURE
16
17 The next sections briefly present how we have tackled the future of rail in Europe by 2050 using
18 the different methodologies explained in the previous section. Many of these steps were
19 supported by internal meetings with project partners and workshops with internal and external
20 participants (such as policy makers, researchers, politicians and people related to the rail
21 industry) (51).
22
23 Looking back
24 It is an important starting point to scenario development, since it gives a clear idea on how easy
25 or difficult changes in a certain topic may take place taking into account past situations. It can be
26 supported by qualitative or quantitative analysis and is an enriching method to understand
27 feasible outcomes (22). In this case, due to the topic under discussion, it is less supported by
28 qualitative analysis, but rather by evident facts found in literature and still visible nowadays (for
29 example, car-oriented cities).
30
31 The developments of the past four decades may be illustrated by the examples in table 1.
32 The selection of categories and events is more or less arbitrary but contains some of the major
33 event in Europe and worldwide since then. The bold fields in indicate “game changers”, i.e.
34 events with a strong impact on peoples’ and companies’ behavior, in particular in transport and
35 mobility.
36
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 9

1
Table 1 – Social, economic and technological trends from 1970 to date (examples)

Area 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

ICT technology Phone cells / Car phones First clunky Omni-present Low cost high
expensive mobile phones cell phones, speed flat rates
smart phones
Writing and Type writer and Computerization Internet, email, High capacity Melting of mobile
mailing mail boxes of the office home internet, movie devices,
computing streaming, etc. computers, etc.
Leisure time Nearer distance Affordable Appearance of Partly
holiday trips by holiday flights to low cost renaissance of
car / van distant targets airlines local targets
Working Strict working Reduction of Liberalization of Free working Increasing
hours in offices workloads (35 h working times in time / place problems with
week) some branches models burnout & work
life balance
Industry Heavy industry First countries go Steel production Online trade: Mostly out of
based on steel & out of coal in China, further new product hard coal;
coal drop of coal structures Amazon & co.
Economy Stable growth Mainly regulated Liberalization of € as single World economic
rates; markets state industries; currency; crisis; unstable &
oil crises Maastricht treaty new economy low growth; peak
crash; China oil
Policy Progress in Beginning Fall of the Iron Rapid expansion Re-regulation of
European globalization Curtain; of the EU; markets;
integration European accelerated questioning of
Union globalization globalization
Society Beginning Women’s 9/11, London, Aging society;
breaking up of liberation; early Madrid: safety increasing social
traditional family peace and nature issues disparity
structures movements
Environment Smog in cities, Environmental Compulsory Alternative Environmental
polluted rivers movements; filter energies in zones in cities;
catalytic technologies power and support of low
converter transport emission cars
Railways First tilting train TGV Paris - ICE Germany Online tickets, Rail alliances,
Lyon AGV Spain, EU railway customer rights
Channel tunnel packages for
liberalization network access
Cities Purely car-based First pedestrian Shrinking tax Revitalizing Fostering of
planning and zones; trend out incomes; tramways; trend cycling &
development of the city competition for back to the city walking; green
well-off citizens city planning
2
3 The selection shall demonstrate two points: First, our environment has changed in many
4 aspects:
5 • In the past four decades a number of fundamental changes have taken place.
6 Through the fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, the German Reunification and the
7 Balkan War this has probably been more visible in Europe than in other world
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 10

1 regions. But the internet and Smartphone revolution and all its entailed
2 possibilities are global.
3 • Second, we see that major changes can happen very quickly. Most of the
4 identified wild cards are in the 1990s or the 2000s, i.e. no more than 25 years ago.
5 And sometimes radical changes happened not even a decade ago. Of course the
6 underlying technical or societal trends reach back way longer, but on the other
7 hand we have even identified changing city and mobility structures just happening
8 right now.
9
10 Taking these developments further to 2050, i.e. another three to four decades ahead, we
11 can only speculate on the magnitude of changes. We do not know how these changes in detail
12 will look like, but we can be sure that the world in 2050 will be substantially different from
13 today.
14
15 Some hints of what may happen are the digitalization of our daily life, the job flexibility
16 and life environments or 3D printing, just to name some. Now the challenge is to take these
17 insights for creating a picture of a rail based transport future for different European areas.
18
19 Current European situation
20 The European statistics in figure 1 show that there is a strong role of tram and metro systems in
21 some countries. In some countries, this information should be regarded carefully since it could be
22 also a matter of the statistics’ quality.
23
24 It is interesting to note that the Switzerland attains 45% of freight by rail in Tkm; whereas
25 it is the only country that reaches around 20% of the rail system share for passengers. Big
26 European countries have around 5 to 10% of the passenger share.
27
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 11

Figure 1 – Rail share for (left) passengers at pkm 2011 and (right) freight at Tkm 2011 (52).

1
2
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 12

Table 2 – Summary indicators for the framework conditions (except Policy, and Lifestyles and Values).
Source: (53). (n.r.: not relevant)
indicator Horizon EU27 interurban Urban
Demographic &social Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic
indicators case case case case case case
2020 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Population
2030 0.2 % 1.6 % 0.2 % 1.6 % 0.3 % 1.7 %
(average % yearly growth)
2050 0.0 % 1.7 % 0.0 % 1.7 % 0.2 % 0.8 %

Old-age dependency ratio 2020 31 % 31 % 31 % 31 % 30 % 30 %

( % of population aged
2030 38 26 % 38 % 26 % 35 % 23 %
>65 years on population
15 – 64 years) 2050 50 % 26 % 50 % 26 % 45 % 23 %

Urban population 2020 78 % 80 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

( % of population living
2030 81 % 85 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
in urban areas on total
population) 2050 85 % 90 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Horizon EU27 interurban Urban

Economic indicators
Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic
case case case case case case
2020 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 %
GDP growth rate
2030 1.9 % 2.5 % 1.9 % 2.5 % 1.9 % 2.5 %
(average % yearly growth)
2050 1.8 % 2.5 % 1.8 % 2.5 % 1.8 % 2.5 %

2020 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 %

Average disposable income
per capita 2030 1.6 % 2.0 % 1.6 % 2.0 % 1.6 % 2.0 %
(average % yearly growth)
2050 1.7 % 2.0 % 1.7 % 2.0 % 1.7 % 2.0 %

2020 30.9 30.6 30.9 30.6 30.9 30.6

Gini index
2030 31.0 27.0 31.0 27.0 31.0 27.0
(index)
2050 31.4 22.9 31.4 22.9 31.4 22.9
Horizon EU27 interurban Urban
Environmental indicators Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic
case case case case case case
2020 –15 % –26 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
Total CO2 emissions
(Difference with respect to 2030 –19 % –47 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
year 1990) 2050 –26 % – 64 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

2020 2.8 2.2 2.4 1.8 4.1 3.2

Road transport fatalities
rate (Casualties/Billion 2030 1.7 1.0 1.4 0.9 2.4 1.5
pkm)
2050 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.3

2020 40 % 35 % n.r. n.r. 40 % 35 %

Transport noise exposure
2030 35 % 25 % n.r. n.r. 35 % 25 %
( % population)
2050 30 % 15 % n.r. n.r. 30 % 15 %

Horizon EU27 interurban Urban

 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 13

Energy indicators Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic

case case case case case case
2020 99 103 n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
Oil price
2030 117 129 n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
($ 2013 /barrel)
2050 165 215 n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Share of renewables on 2020 30 % 44 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

electricity production
2030 32 % 58 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
( % on total electricity
production) 2050 54 % 80 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Horizon EU27 interurban Urban

Technology indicators Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic Mainstr. Dynamic
case case case case case case
2020 –9% –20 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
Cars average CO2 emissions
per passenger-km ( % 2030 –13 % –50 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
difference with respect to
year 2010) 2050 –20 % – 60 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

2020 –5 % –10 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Trucks average CO2
emissions per tonne-km ( % 2030 –10 % –20 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
difference with respect to
year 2010) 2050 –15 % –30 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Ships average CO2 emissions 2020 –2 % –5 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

per tonne-km ( % 2030 –5 % –10 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
difference with respect to
year 2010) 2050 –10 % –20 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

2020 –5 % –7 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Air average CO2 emissions
per passenger-km ( % 2030 –10 % –15 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
difference with respect to
year 2010) 2050 –15 % –20 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

2020 75 % 80 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

Mobile data accessibility
2030 80 % 100 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.
( % of population)
2050 70 % 100 % n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

1
2 Framework conditions and scenarios
3 Transport forecasts are normally used for investment planning. However, defining external
4 trends that have an impact on the railway sector is also a necessary step to define a vision. In this
5 case, those factors are related to the environment, economy, energy, society, culture, and policy.
6 The LivingRAIL project has developed two alternative scenarios. The reference scenario is the
7 mainstream case, according to the current trends and information provided in different reports,
8 whereas the alternative scenario presents a more dynamic and optimistic context. A third
9 scenario describing stagnating economic growth was deliberately excluded because it would
10 directly impede the White Paper targets, thus, revitalizing railways would be an impossible task.
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 14

1 More detailed information on the development of each scenario may be found in Fiorello et al.
2 (53).
3
4 Most of the Scenarios are based on the ASTRA model (57; 56; 55; 54). It is an integrated
5 assessment model which covers the EU27 countries plus Norway and Switzerland, based on a
6 system dynamic approach which runs until 2050. Table 2 summarizes the indicators and trends
7 used to build up the different scenarios.
8
Table 3 – Defined focus areas to further develop the roadmaps

Focus area Description Examples

Public transport in Regions around cities with up to 400000 inhabitants, non-existent or less Namur (France),
small and medium well developed rail-based public transport and accordingly high car and Göttingen (Germany),
city areas bus mode shares. Quality of cycling and walking i nfrastructure and Tartu (Estonia)
culture, and with that the share of green areas, in these cities is Funchal/Madeira
comparably low. The availability of financial resources to improve quality (Portugal)
of life and transport is difficult as the economic prospects of the city and
this surrounding region is below the EU average.

Public transport in Large agglomerations / cities with high income levels, well-established Amsterdam (Nether-
large agglomeration rail networks and a high PT share. Although these types of cities already lands),
areas now have well established PT systems and high PT shares, they bear a Munich & Ruhr Area
higher potential to further increase the PT market share than small to (Germany), Vienna
medium sized towns. Given their weight in the total number of trips, (Austria), Lisbon
these major metropolitan areas particularly need to be included in a (Portugal)
strategy to achieve the EU’s 50 % target.

Long-distance Low density and low income regions, mostly located in remote / Severozapaden
passenger rail in peripheral regions of the EU, with poorly developed rail networks (per (Bulgaria), La
sparsely populated km 2) in poor maintenance conditions and with a comparably low Rioja (Spain), Corse
regions passenger modal split. These are regions for strong actions to close up (France) Nord-Norge
with more developed regions. However, financial options to do so will be (Norway)
limited in these areas.
Long-distance passenger High density, well-off regions with dense rail networks and high Vienna region
rail in passenger shares. Mostly these are the metropolitan regions of (Austria), Antwerp
densely populated areas countries and regions in from the southern UK via central Europe and (Belgium), Berlin
southern Scandinavia to northern Italy. Financial possibilities in these (Germany), Lisbon
regions are relatively good, such as that an even further increase of rail (Portugal)
shares is possible.
Rail freight in Low density and low income countries with sparse rail networks. However, Iberian Peninsula,
sparsely populated areas these regions usually have a comparably high share of freight on rail as Poland, Slovak
they are commonly large and rely on bulk goods (coal, steel, etc.). Re- public
Improving the quality of rail networks and services in these regions is
needed to make them competitive for the future when product structures
move away from bulk goods.
Rail freight in High density and above-average income regions / countries with Benelux countries,
densely populated areas dense rail networks but low rail modal share. Freight markets are Rhine-Rhur-Area
dominated by very mixed product structures with dispersed origin- (Germany), northern
destination relations. Fostering intermodal services and Italy
encouraging industries to locate closer to rail nodes could help
improving rail competitiveness in these rather central European
markets.
9
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 15

1 Table 3 presents the characteristics of each focus area, for which the roadmaps will be
2 developed. We will focus our attention in public transport in small and medium city areas, long-
3 distance passenger rail in sparsely populated regions, and rail freight in sparsely populated areas.
4
5 Since there are many differences between regions in Europe, the outcomes are likely to
6 be totally diverse. Therefore, regions were clustered into “focus areas”, based on statistical data
7 mainly obtained through Eurostat (58), and taking into account particular transport conditions,
8 European regions and cities have been clustered according to:
9 • demographic structures
10 • economic strength
11 • rail infrastructure availability and
12 • rail or PT modal share
13
14 Vision 2050 and Roadmaps
15 In order to elaborate strategic actions to be taken into account by policy, research and transport
16 sector as a whole, and to ensure a sustainable and livable environment through many railway
17 friendly alternatives in 2050, it is necessary to provide a positive picture of the future. This
18 picture is funded in previous steps, such as retrospective analysis, assessment of the current
19 situation and scenarios.
20
21 Due to space constraints, in this paper we will focus on analyzing only low density
22 regions and their vision regarding spatial planning, morphology, market and policy.
23
24 Visioning process
25 This step was carried out through an internal discussion with partners and members of the
26 entire project team. It was also supported with previous workshops with external participants and
27 through the discussion of a huge collection of best practices and measures (59). They were
28 provided in advance with the Scenarios report (53). They were leaded by experienced staff in
29 analyzing and converging diverging perspectives in workshop environments taking into account
30 the following topics:
31 • Norms, values and lifestyles.
32 • Mobility services
33 • Spatial and urban concepts
34 • Railway systems
35
36 Roadmap towards 2050
37 It constitutes a decision guideline addressed to policy-makers and relevant stakeholders on how
38 to develop low density regions concerning spatial planning, morphology, market and policy in
39 order to reach the vision 2050.
40
41 The pathways starts from our current situation and take into account the possible trends
42 as stated in previous sections. The roadmap was carried out with project partners and external
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 16

1 participants such as experts in different areas of transport, politicians and policy makers. The
2 results are shown graphically in Figure 2. Due to the complexity to present the roadmap in this
3 paper, a detailed description of the main findings and policy recommendations is presented in the
4 following section.
5

Figure 2 – Roadmap 2050 for low density regions in spatial planning, markets, and policy.

6
7
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 17

1 HIGHLIGHTS ON THE EVOLUTION TOWARDS THE 2050 VISION

2
3 Short term
4 When talking about the vision towards 2050 for low density areas, an integral long term
5 transport and land policy plan becomes the first step to alleviate their isolation, to promote
6 these areas as a livable alternative and hence to revert the trend of people moving to big cities. Its
7 aim would also be to efficiently manage economic resources to provide a better service,
8 according to the needs of population.
9
10 For example regarding mixed and compact cities, even if these urban areas are allocated
11 in low density regions, planning should enforce the construction of high density buildings,
12 provided with minimum services of transportation. The former implies that urban and transport
13 planning should be integrated in the short term. Cooperation between regional authorities should
14 be reinforced in order to provide a more integrated service between nearby towns and to improve
15 the use of resources. Moreover, devolution of centralized authorities to local and regional
16 authorities is also needed.
17
18 When we talk about using resources efficiently, it means that it is clear the impossibility
19 to provide every single town with a high level of rail transport that could pass by every single
20 area. Therefore, the focus should be on providing good level of alternatives to act as feeders that
21 could take inhabitants to main stations.
22
23 Regarding location of companies, in the short term tele-commuting is essential to reduce
24 commuting, and IT measures are implemented to provide high-quality services. Legislation has
25 also been enforced to provide incentives to those companies that locate in high density areas. The
26 contrary is also set in place; penalties will be given to those companies that locate in low density
27 areas. Moreover, especial taxation has been implemented in order to foster that industrial
28 companies are located in rail siding areas.
29
30 The goal regarding legislation and taxation, can be put into practice in the short term,
31 although the results will be noticed in the long run. It is worth noting that, low density areas have
32 more free space, so that companies can seek for good locations close to stations.
33
34 It is expected that low density areas count with improved ICT services at urban level.
35 Likewise, ICT should also be a usual and available standard service within the rail systems and
36 public transportation. That will be enabled due to new standards and regulations.
37
38 New developments in the rail industry are expected. It is expected that shared systems
39 between passenger and freight rail services are well developed, especially important to optimize
40 services in low density regions. The development of ticketing services is also well developed in
41 Europe, and there is a unified provision between operators, which facilitates the use of
42 international services for passengers.
43
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 18

1 A deep discussion to rebalance the situation between small and big cities is needed. In
2 this respect, transport investment planning for low density areas, should be based in strategic
3 social sustainability topics, more than merely financial issues. The coordination of timetables not
4 only among rail services, but also among public transport services should be improved to reduce
5 the total time of commuting trips, especially important in low density areas.
6
7 It is expected that active mobility infrastructures are fostered to integrate these means
8 into multimodality. Finally, strict built and planning legislation is necessary to forbid new urban
9 developments in isolated areas with no public transportation or without active mobility
10 infrastructure. The focus should be to count with a strong legislation in low density areas that
11 seeks to reduce the use of private cars.
12
13 Taxation should be rebalanced in order to raise money to fund rail infrastructure, to
14 make people willing to move from private cars to public transportation. For example by road
15 burdens (even if perhaps there are problems of acceptability in some countries). In the same
16 respect it should be necessary to consider earmarking as a figure for regional planning and
17 funding purposes.
18
19 Moreover, other forms of mobility should be combined to work as feeders to the rail
20 systems to optimize financial resources and by the end of 2020 other alternatives of financial of
21 funding schemes, such as cooperatives, should be evaluated to fund infrastructure that is not
22 interesting for big operators. In this case, land owners, local governments, and/or small
23 companies could be interested in these schemes.
24
25 Medium term
26 Mixed and compact cities are characterized by transport hubs which should be developed in
27 order to become efficient regional poles of services, not only for transportation but also to ease
28 every day commuters’ needs. On the other hand, mobile services should be fully common and
29 available. It means that services such as mobile cinema, dentists and so on, should be part of the
30 opportunities given to these areas in order to diminish their commuting trips to major urban
31 areas.
32
33 The European Commission should provide with official EU standards for rail regarding
34 industry, government and operators. Compatibility of standards in railways through the
35 unification of systems in the EU rail sector should be achieved along with the optimization of
36 the rail systems to improve their capacity (i.e. moving blocks, among others), important for both
37 passenger and freight services. By 2030, it would be expected that flexible rolling stock will be
38 commonly used in short/long distance in order to maximize the capacity of the system and to
39 reduce costs.
40
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 19

1 Long term
2 In the medium to long term tele-medicine services should be also fully operational. Moreover, it
3 should be possible to foresee in the medium to long term a transport public system fully reliable
4 that met expectations of inhabitants of mixed and compact cities.
5
6 Furthermore, it is expected that personal rail systems could start to be seen as a new
7 form of mobility.
8
9 Vision 2050
10 Most of the people that live in compact mixed small towns or low density areas count with high
11 connectivity through active mobility (walking/cycling) to local rail /LRT. Other services, once
12 known as “innovative services”, such as car pooling, car sharing, e-bike, etc. are fundamental to
13 efficiently manage public transport. Land use through Public Transport Oriented development
14 and polycentric urban systems are core issues already well integrated in Policy.
15
16 The short term developments and measures show their effects on the location of
17 companies: By 2050 industrial companies have relocated to areas accessible by rail, many
18 clustered in industrial sidings.
19
20 The former developments should be useful to achieve common standards and
21 regulations across Europe in passenger and freight transport on booking, ticketing and train
22 technologies to facilitate the use of the system thorough Europe.
23
24 Thanks to a drastically increase demand, the European rail industry has speeded up the
25 development processes. Innovative products and production forms can be launched much more
26 easily than today, both for rail and passenger, according to EU standards, and supported by faster
27 authorization and certification processes.
28
29 By 2050, national transport investment plans will be multi-modal and follow a social
30 strategic development vision for low density areas, jointly elaborated by the EU and its Member
31 States.
32
33 In low density regions, driven by the high market share and social profitability and
34 sustainability, funding railways has been attractive for the private sector, and public support for
35 sustainable transport projects has also been increased.
36
37 HIGHLIGHTS ON THE MEASURES TO ACHIEVE THE VISION 2050
38
39 To achieve the objectives and to obtain this evolution, there are many measures that should be
40 taken into account.
41
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 20

1 Short term
2 In the first place, a master plan for transport is needed; it has to be a strategic multi-modal
3 concept embracing all modes before actual investment planning with strong view on overall
4 performance. It has to understand the particularities of low density regions and its needs and the
5 importance of strategic social sustainability in these regions. Once this master plan is developed
6 the following measures can be developed in this framework.
7
8 For example, as a following step, reliable funding schemes for regional rail can be
9 developed, taking into account sustainable funding of regional passenger rail by establishing
10 earmarked funds or earmarking certain public revenues. Cooperatives could also work as
11 alternative funding schemes.
12
13 A measure such as free public transport could be a possibility to maintain a high level
14 of people switching from private to public transportation. It could be free for residents,
15 accompanied by PT fees paid by local businesses to fund its operation. Many other alternatives
16 to indirect funding are possible (cooperatives, for example).
17
18 Powerful urban and transport authorities are also necessary to work according to the
19 master plan. The link between urban and transport planning is necessary to foresee necessary
20 investments over the long-term. This joint authority must have a strong decision making power.
21 Transport mobility and accessibility plans should be stricter according to the general master plan;
22 there should not be permissions to build new developments in areas without public transport
23 availability. Mixed land use and high density areas are the only ones to be accepted, which
24 would be more valuable for residents, employees and customers.
25
26 The users’ point of view regarding rail services should be heard. Passenger Advisory
27 boards could help improve the rail operation and planning through a direct contact between users
28 and rail operators.
29
30 An improved rail service quality is necessary and better customer oriented services
31 could alleviate this issue.
32
33 Improved maintenance planning through risk mapping and remote condition monitoring
34 could lessen maintenance and operation costs.
35
36 Moreover, in order to facilitate commuter trips to passengers living in low density areas,
37 by 2020 WI-FI should be fully available on board. It would enhance passenger trip experience
38 along with providing up-to-date journey information.
39
40 In order to diminish the attractiveness of private cars, slow zones should be obligatory in
41 cities and towns. Speed restriction for all motor vehicles to 30kph, in order to reduce accidents,
42 noise and congestion.
43
44 Urban car pricing should be implemented in all cities from differentiated charging
45 systems. For example, car pricing in large agglomerations would diminish the likelihood that a
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 21

1 person living in a low density area used his private car to go to a large agglomeration. In smaller
2 agglomeration such as towns, parking pricing could be an alternative.
3
4 On-street parking policy should be specially reduced to regain space for active mobility
5 such as walking and cycling.
6
7 Low density areas should be based in a cycling-friendly environment. As we said
8 before, reducing parking spaces on the street which could be used for cycling express ways.
9 Parking facilities in main points of interests should be put in place and bike sharing systems
10 should be part of the facilities available in these areas.
11
12 City authorities should foster alternative transportation, such as car pooling, car
13 sharing and even e-bike sharing, as complementary transport modes in low density areas. Then,
14 welcome packages should be constantly advertised, to let inhabitants know about recent
15 acquisitions or changes in transportation, alternatives to improve commuting trips, costs, etc.
16
17 In the case of freight rail transport, logistic chains information systems, including
18 intermodal hub control, should be put into practice, necessary to optimize capacity and to reduce
19 total costs. Chains in information systems should be developed according to the same EU
20 standards.
21
22 In order to increase regional coverage capacity and connections it is necessary to
23 optimize resources and provide less expensive solutions such as shared taxis and feeder buses to
24 complement services. The integration of urban and transport authorities should be helpful to
25 highlight the concrete problems of low density areas. Transfer stations should be well equipped
26 to ease transfer to passengers and time-tables should be as functional as possible. Extending rail
27 services should be carried out when this option is really needed. The same is applicable for
28 reopening old lines and maintaining minimum services, which should be considered as an option
29 to rebalance the situation between big and small cities, all of them in the framework of “Strategic
30 Social Sustainability”. The opportunities of different financial mechanisms such as earmarking,
31 to invest in rail infrastructure, should not be disregarded.
32
33 Medium term
34 In the medium term, an improved access to the European high speed rail network should be
35 accompanied by an efficient integration of other transport modes. People would prefer to use rail
36 connections instead of air connections to main air hubs.
37
38 An improved access to innovative new rail services should be important for low density
39 areas. This includes revitalized night trains, low costs providers and more efficient time-tables,
40 especially at peak times.
41
42 Rail network access regulation should be also put into practice in the medium term to
43 guarantee fair competition for track access by a transparent European standard and its
44 enforcement.
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 22

1
2 Establishing location policies for enterprises and companies in order to support
3 regional and local sustainable logistics should be a priority, because there is more space available
4 it could also help to reopen old stations which had insufficient traffic before, by combining
5 freight close to the station and passenger rail transport.
6
7 By 2030, automated trains systems could reduce costs by introducing trains without
8 drivers, and improving reliability, and safety.
9
10 In order to improve capacity and diminish costs, an improved or optimized freight
11 network design and improved rail loading gauge should be according to common EU standards
12 for rail which should be common for government, operators and industry.
13
14 An improved inter-regional rail transport should be assured, by different schemes,
15 sometimes (when the infrastructure is worth it) through the revitalization of tramways and the
16 introduction of tram-trains. In other cases, with passenger-freight combined services and finally,
17 when demand is still below a minimum, complementary services, such as feeder buses and
18 shared systems such as car sharing, shared taxis, etc.
19
20 Fully interoperable European trains, with the full capacity to run on the entire
21 European network, would diminish operation costs for government, industry and operators. It
22 would also help optimizing the rail system to improve its capacity and count with flexible rolling
23 stock which could be used in short and long distance.
24
25 There will also be flexible trains to adapt technology (modular) development which
26 would improve services and diminish operational costs according to new technologies.
27
28 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND DISCUSSION
29
30 Through the combined use of several qualitative foresight methodologies, we were able to derive
31 plausible pictures and pathways for long term railway development in Europe. The multitude of
32 methods helped reduce the uncertainty and other risks inherent to single methods. The commonly
33 rather conservative outlook of simulation models was counter-balanced by provocative
34 statements by team members and sector experts in the foresight workshops.
35
36 The main advantage of the visioning and roadmapping technique over standard
37 forecasting methods, however, is to incorporate policy, business and societal development goals
38 through inclusive creativity techniques. This appears to be of particular importance as the desire
39 for public participation – at least in Europe – has been growing over the past decades. Moreover
40 the belief in the inerrability of techno-economic forecasting and simulation tools has weakened.
41
42 Roadmapping provides an option to deal with these issues. Although developed in
43 entrepreneurial contexts we have shown that the method also works for larger socio-economic
44 development endeavors. Roadmapping, however, is a process rather than a one-off method for
 Mejia-Dorantes, L., Doll, C., Doenitz, E. 23

1 planning the future. Ideally it has to be applied by policy and the railways on a continuous basis
2 constantly reviewing and revising developments.
3
4 On the contrary, the results of the visioning and roadmapping exercises much depend on
5 the creativity, openness and experience of the contributing experts. Although team members and
6 workshop participants have been confronted with high dynamics of the past 40 years’
7 development in Europe, their expectations on visions and development pathways remained rather
8 cautious. Regarding the developments in the European rail system it is interesting to note that
9 many measures in the field of spatial planning, morphology, market and policy, urge to be
10 implemented in the short term although the results will only be noticed over the long term.
11
12 A key issue in low density regions is the term “Strategic Social Sustainability”, policy
13 makers and politicians should not try to analyze the profitability of the rail sector only in
14 financial terms, as there are many issues that cannot be translated into numbers. Instead they
15 should look to rebalance the situation between big cities and low cities, with the aim of reducing
16 the number of people moving from low density regions to high density regions due to the lack of
17 services. This issue finally gets down to the competition of cities and regions for skilled and
18 better off citizens in an environment of largely shrinking and aging population.
19
20 This paper leaves many doors opened for future research, such a comparison between the
21 findings of high and low density regions and their joint analysis with more topics such as values
22 and lifestyles, attitudes towards transport modes, mobility services, technology and rail systems.
23 Most of these issues will be tackled in the final stages of the LivingRAIL project lasting until
24 May 2015.
25
26 AKNOWLEDGMENTS
27
28 This research is part of the LivingRAIL project, funded by the European Commission under the
29 7th Framework. Our gratitude to all the participants of the workshops and partners.
30
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