Assignment 3

SP19-BSE-5
GROUP Assignment
Make 6 groups of students to solve distinct problems from Q.1to Q .6
Each group should take only one question.
Q.7 is compulsory for all students.
Viva will be taken after submission of this assignment. Quiz 3 marks will be given on
bases of viva presentation (Power point)

Q.1 1A. Suppose that the class registrations of 200 students are analysed. M is
event that students take Mathematics, H is event that students take History, and E is
event that students take English subject. Referring to the Venn diagram, Find the
following Probabilities.

a. If a student selected at random find the probability that student do not take any of
Mathematics, History, or English.
b. If a student selected at random find the probability that student take only
Mathematics.
c. If a student selected at random find the probability that student take History and
English but not Mathematics.
d. If a student selected at random find the probability that student take Mathematics and
English but not History.
e. If a student selected at random find the probability that student take all three of
Mathematics, History, and English.
f. Find the values of x and y.
g. If a student is chosen at random from those who take neither History nor English,
what is the probability that he or she does not take Mathematics either?
 h. If one of the students who take at least two of the three courses is chosen at random, what is
the probability that he or she takes all three courses?

1B. It is estimated that approximately 8.18% Americans are afflicted with diabetes. Suppose
that a certain diagnostic evaluation for diabetes will correctly diagnose 96% of all adults over
40 with diabetes as having the disease and incorrectly diagnoses 2% of all adults over 40
without diabetes as having the disease.
a. Draw an appropriate tree diagram modeling the situation
b. Find the probability that a randomly selected adult over 40 does not have diabetes,
and is diagnosed as having diabetes (such diagnoses are called "false positives").
c. Find the probability that a randomly selected adult of 40 is diagnosed as not having
diabetes.
d. Find the probability that a randomly selected adult over 40 actually has diabetes,
given that he/she is diagnosed as not having diabetes (such diagnoses are called "false
negatives").

Q.2 2A.

Ali has three eight-sided dice with unusual numbering.

a. Make probability tables for the green, blue and red dice.
b. Ali played a game with his friend Ahmad. He throws a dice
once and the even number wins. Compute the probability of
winning if green dice were chosen. Draw a tree diagram
c. Compute the probability of winning if blue dice were
chosen.
d. Compute the probability of winning if red dice were chosen.
e. From the above situation in “2” compute the probability of
wining.
f. If Ali wins a game what is the probability that he chooses
green dice.
g. Also prove that total probability adds to 1.
 2B. Relays used in the construction of electrical circuits function properly with a
probability of 0.9. Four relays, labelled 1, 2, 3, and 4 are shown in circuits A and B
below. Assuming that circuits operate independently and also current flows from
point A to B in each circuit.

a. Which of the following circuit design yields the higher probability that current will
flow when relays are activated?
b. Consider the circuit A, if it is known that current flows properly what is the
probability that relay 1 and 3 are functioning properly?
c. Consider the circuit B, if it is known that current flows properly what is the
probability that relay 2 and 4 are functioning properly?

Q.3 3A. A hiker leaves point A shown in Figure 2.13 below, choosing at random
one path from AB, AC, AD, and AE. At each subsequent junction she chooses
another path at random, but she does not immediately return on the path she has just
taken. You meet the hiker at point X.

a. What is the probability that the hiker came via point B?

b. What is the probability that the hiker came via point C?
c. What is the probability that the hiker came via point D?
d. What is the probability that the hiker came via point E?
e. What is the probability that the hiker came via point B and C? Consider both
paths B and C mutually exclusive.
f. What is the probability that the hiker came via point B and C? Consider both
paths B and C independent.
g. What is the probability that the hiker came via point B or D?

3B. In a statistics class of 42 students, 28 have volunteered for community service in

the past. If two students are selected at random from this class, Find the following
probability for both parts a and b, that exactly one of them have volunteered for
community service in the past? Draw a tree diagram for this problem.
 a. Assuming selection with replacement.
b. Assuming selection without replacement.

Q.4 4A. A sample space contains events A, B, and C as shown in the Venn
3 9
diagram. The probabilities of the respective events are 𝑃(𝐴) = 15 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 15 ,
7 2 3
𝑃(𝐶) = 15 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 15 , 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 15

a. Are events A and C being mutually exclusive? Why?

b. Are events A and C being independent? Why?
c. Are events B and C being independent? Why?
d. Find all regions mentioned in a given figure in terms of specific notation. E.g.,
2=𝐴∩𝐵
e. Which events are non-mutually exclusive?
f. Find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵), 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶), 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶), 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)
g. Do probabilities of all regions add up to 1.0? If so, why?

4B. A class has 18 boys and 6 girls. Three students are selected from the class at
random, one after the other. Draw all possible samples and find the probabilities

a. The first two are girls and the third is a boy.

b. The first and third are girls and the second is a boy.
c. The first and third are of the same sex and the second is of the opposite sex.
d. All are of same sex.
e. All Must be alternate.
f. Only one girl is selected.
g. Only two boys are selected.

Q.5 5A. On average 62 % of Finite Mathematics students spend some time in the
Mathematics Department's resource room. Half of these students spend more than 90
 minutes per week in the resource room. At the end of the semester the students in the
class were asked how many minutes per week they spent in the resource room and
whether they passed or failed. The passing rates are summarized in the following
table:
Time spent in resource room Pass%
None 27
Between 1 and 90 minutes 42
More than 90 minutes 75

a. What is the probability that a randomly selected student passes the course?
b. If a randomly selected student passed the course, what is the probability that
he or she studies more than 90 minutes in the resource room?
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected student does not pass the
course?
d. If a randomly chosen student did not pass the course, what is the probability
that he or she did not study in the resource room?

5B. Hint for solution, for independent events A and B

𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴̅) × 𝑃(𝐵̅ ) = (1 − 𝑃(𝐴)) × (1 − 𝑃(𝐵))
To find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − [{1 − 𝑃(𝐴)} × {1 − 𝑃(𝐵)}]
 ANSWER a) 0.0681 b) 1-0.2842

Q.6 6A. A certain company has two car assembly plants, A and B. Plant A
produces twice as many cars as plant B. Plant A uses engines and transmissions from
a subsidiary plant which produces 10% defective engines and 2% defective
transmissions. Plant B uses engines and transmissions from another source where 8%
of the engines and 4% of the transmissions are defective. Car transmissions and
engines at each plant are installed independently.
1. Draw a tree diagram to present all events in a sample space.
2. What is the probability that a car chosen at random will have a good engine?
3. What is the probability that a car from plant A has a defective engine, or a
defective transmission, or both?
4. What is the probability that a car which has a good transmission and a defective
engine was assembled at plant B?
Ans 0.902, 0.118, 0.281

6B. Two thousand randomly selected adults were asked if they think they are
financially better off than their parents. The following information gives the
classification of the responses based on the education levels of the persons included in
the survey and whether they are financially better off, the same as, or worse off than
their parents. 1010 claimed that they got financially better off, of them 140 had less
than high school education and 450 had high school education. Of the total 400 had
less than high school education and 600 had more than high school education. Of the
 600 more than high school education, 110 got financially same as their parents.550
claim that they got financially worse off, of them 200 had less than high school
education.
a. Construct complete 3 × 3 contingency table
b. If one adult is selected at random from these 2000 adults, find the probability
that this adult is
i. financially better off than his/her parents
ii. financially better off than his/her parents given he/she has less than
high school education
iii. financially worse off than his/her parents given he/she has high school
education
iv. financially the same as his/her parents given he/she has more than high
school education
v. Are the events “better off” and “high school” mutually exclusive?
vi. What about the events “less than high school” and “more than high
school?” Why or why not?
Q.7 7A. . Simpson’s Paradox
a. A black urn contains 5 red and 6 green balls, and a white urn contains 3 red
and 4 green balls. You are allowed to choose an urn and then choose a ball at
random from the urn. If you choose a red ball, you get a prize. Which urn
should you choose to draw from?
b. Now consider another game in which a second black urn has 6 red and 3 green
balls, and a second white urn has 9 red and 5 green balls. You are allowed to
choose an urn and then choose a ball at random from the urn. If you choose a
red ball, you get a prize. Which urn should you choose to draw from?
c. In the final game, the contents of the second black urn are added to the first
black urn, and the contents of the second white urn are added to the first white
urn. Again, you can choose which urn to draw from. Which should you
choose?
7B Of the feed material for a manufacturing plant, 85% is satisfactory, and the rest is not. If
it is satisfactory, the probability it will pass Test A is 92%. If it is not satisfactory, the
probability it will pass Test A is 9.5%. If it passes Test A it goes on to Test B; 99% will pass
Test B if the material is satisfactory, and 16% will pass Test B if the material is not
satisfactory. If it fails Test A it goes on to Test C; 82% will pass Test C if the material is
satisfactory, but only 3% will pass Test C if the material is not satisfactory. Material is
accepted if it passes both Test A and Test B. Material is rejected if it fails both Test A and
Test C. Material is reprocessed if it fails Test B or passes Test C.
a. What percentage of the feed material is accepted?
b. What percentage of the feed material is reprocessed?
c. What percentage of the material which is reprocessed was satisfactory?

Submission Date: Presentations 30/04/2021