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n~uwJGmo: [iw~(j bG~WilfntJ1, mL!.Jwt lin1bt~ llbUIQntli [!UilmGL[mu t . nr zwhpct~Gb('l[!
pqwpwubGQ «UWQnLfl bp~w qnp6wflWU» WUjWQ.WJnulllGwtm bG hwumwmmu ~wl, nr GnLJGG t , w!Sbtm bu 0% w!S~ mbliUjnl[: Upll-
. JntUQnLU 11 pwGwlll.J[! ~[!UilnL hbmlJJWL mbUQ[!.
u, ~GUjbu Wf11lbG GzLJ.bt t. zwhm~pctGJ
uU =~ Co
2o ~rbug
qmlwr~
Gbn~wJgul
Gbp~w
t ou~brntJwG
wnctbQ[! l.J quwhwm-
~n'l­
fu- (1+ 'l).(Q.)t

n(1U1b'1 C0-G 2whpd~G[! [!G~wg mwrmu:

m G 4.brnGzJWL pwuwlluo UjwpqbgGbtnLI.' ~w(lbt t bp~wJgGt hbml.JJWL mbu2nLJ..
I (1 + 'l).(Q.)t t
l
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-rll dwu~hml[6: lfl<O
[!UilntL.j_~ nn pwctubmn~ ~rw(j Wf10bQ[! uzL.j_w6 pwuwlll.JnL.j_ tt l.J ~('lwGg[mi t pwdGbmnliu~ Gb(lQ~ qG~ hwzl[(~!: Ub(l
! O('l~Gwmi 2003 ~ - ~Gwu W(11lJntUQUb(1nl[ !U~bpmJnt[ Lj_!Sw(lbt t zwhm~p­
ct~G tlb~ pwdubmnli~ hwliw(l 750 ll(1Wil qmliW('~ wt.flnLj_~
1
: 2004 ~ - [!G~b(lntJWU ub~
+ 0.~ pwctubmn~G pwd~G ou~Gn1 zwhntJ~[! ~wqlbt t 87 451 ll!1Wil, ~Gm Gzwu~m t Gw-
.(Q.)t (1+ 'l).(Q.)t
funflll mwrl[w hwlibliwm gmwu~z 1933 %-nl[ w!S: 2003 ~- zwhm~pctu L[!Swruwu

•• Ujumhtnn «UWJ;lnLjl bjlWJ'~ qnfllJU.'ft..Of•.» PQ-~(j l[bjlwpbjlnll gwliljwgw{J l!lbllbl!wlill[mJ'lJilL!i, pwgwnm-

als of Investment Management», New York, McGraw-Hill, J'lJWilp pnjlUWJWljw!i qlib1~ lwu~i l!lbll.bl!wlill[mJ'lJW!i , pbjll[w{J b!i [!liljbjlnLJ'lJWii l!lWjlbljwli 1J bnwllujw-
ljwJ~Ii :p~!iwulj hwzl[b!mfJnLi~ :

213
 Uf'dbfa'lfabf'f' Cnt4U PUdN.1 VI Uf"dt;fa'lfal:;f't> Cnt4U3t> <Jbf'LntOntra3Uu 'INJU

qnr6w4P9Q. WJUp(ip(j' llb4 pwctGbumllup(i pwctpG oG4Gnll_ zwhmpwpwctGp ll qnun zwhnq- Pwqt.Iwi/Jntl wlf/1 t.IntJbt: Cwhmpwpwct
pp hwrwpbrmpJntGQ ljwqllbL t 17 %: tpb QGf'lmGbGp, nr 2004 p. zwhmpwpwctGp Lj_owr- ctruubrr 4wutuwwbumllo f'ldt.l.wrwumll t· w!
llwG qnr6wljpgQ !P lflnlflntut.l.bLm. w~ 2004 p. ~pGwulj Wflf'lJnLGpGbrnt.J. Lj_owrt.J.nq t.J.w6: UJu tuGf'lrrO lflnrllbL bG LnLObL O! hwutn
4wll, WJL 4br~ wuw6, 2004 p. llb4 pwctGbtnnllup hwllwr zwhwpwctpGQ 44wqllp 14 867
11rwll: Cutn hwt.J.bLt.J.w6 13-p· «Vwpmr brljwpp qnr6wpwGn PPC-p 'TJ=!Q.-G Wflf'lJnLGw-
t.J.btn zm4WJP f'lb~pnu hwt.j_wuwr t 9.59 llpwt.J.nr. WJUpGp(i' 959 %, tJGw ~WjlwGt.Jnr- uU, = f
4_w6 t pwctGbtnnllup llb6 1'2pu4wJGntpJwllp, tJGm. tJG!~bu Wflf'lbG Gzt.J.bL t, !Wlflt.j_mll t bljwll- t=l

tnwpbrmpJWG ULnWUf'lWflLn zbqllwllp: UJU f'lb~m pwctGbtnnllup wrctbpQ 44wqllr QUf'lW·

llbGQ 1550 11rwll, uU=14867 I 9.59=1550, pG!Q uwljwJG, llbr 4wr6ppn4_, !P hwl~­ CH"+ 1
uU2 =
tnwutuwGmll rrwljwGmpJWUQ, WJUtJGpG' lltJWJU bljwlltnwpb[1nlpJWU ULnWUf'lWflLn zbll_llwO 'TI<Q. - u2
gmgwGrzo Lrwrctbp !P wrtnwgnLmll pwctGbtnnllur l'lpulJwJGmpJmGo: UJu~rnt. · wJum-
hbtn <<Vwpmr brljwpr qnrowrwG» PPC-r 'TJ=!Q.-G 41JUf'lntG4.r 0.305, WJutJGpu· QUf'lhW· uU =. 1JU
Gmr zm4wJr llp2ru bljwlltnwpbrmpJmGo: UJu f'lb~pm pwctGbtnnllur ubrppG qtJGo hw nrtnbll.' U1-0 zwhntpwpwctur wor tnbl~G t
4_wuwr t 48 744 f'lflWll (uU=14 867/0.305=48 744} Ur.Q zwhmpwpwctur wor tnbl~u t N-1111
Uw hwllwrt.J.mll t wlbu~rq ll tnGtnbuwqrtnwljwG qrwljwGmpJwG llb2 wllbGwtnw C N+1 -Q zwhntpwpctpGG t N+1-rf'l wwrm
rw6Lj_w6 unf'lbLQ: UwljwJG nrnz 4.brLm6wpwGGbr ~Gf'lnt bG, nr WJU llnf'lbLQ Gbrf'lrnqGb· UmJG llnf'lbLnt.l. pwct!ibtnnllur Gbrpru qruo
rr 4nll.llrg LWJGnrbG ~p 4rrw1'24_mll, orruwlj, hwllwawjG flWL~
llrwJG 6 wnljnuu t 4rrwl'lmll wJu llnf'lbLQ 20 :
~wurn.mli
PtJGqp' 4.brLm6nll_Gbrr

wlf/1 t.IntJbt: CwhntpwpwctGwjpG hw2nr11 llnf'lblQ 4n!4.mll t zwhmpw-

w, =f.
t=l
14867*(
(1+0.3
pwctur 4wJmG wop llnf'lbL, nro bGpwf'lrtll t. nr zwhmpwpwctpGGbrtJ wllbGwllJw wop
tnbl~Q ljwjmG t : 'lJbtnp t GzbL Gwll, nr pG!~bu prw4.wgpnrbu uzmll t UtnbGLrG, zwhm- .
w2= 28732
pwpwctuwJllG llnf'lbLubro w~hn4_ml bu wr2w4.bL pwrar wrf'lJnLGwt.J.bwmpJmG hwum- 0.305-0.20 X
umpJwG lflmLmll, brp zwhmpwpwctpGGbru womll bu hwuwwwmu tnbl~.j_ 21
:
UJf'lb~pm pwctGbtnnllur rrwljwu wrctbpQ hwt.j_wuwr t 110 303 11rwll, ll ljwrbLp t w = 49943 +

Gbf14WJWQUbL hbtnl.IJWL pwuwai.Jn4_. UJu llnf'lbU! hbwwqwJmll Lrwllzw4bL t 4

W =f. Co(1+ U)t
t=l ( 1+ 'fl.(Q.) t
4bGuwgp4Lr wbumpJWU£! 2•:

nptnbq' U-G zwhwpwctGp wop tnbl~Q

w = c1 brat 'l)<(Q :> u

'l)<(Q- u
ulb = ___c_
w = 14867".(0 15+1) = 110303 ('fl.(Q.- U
0.305-0 .15
uu = uU1
Uw4WJU WJU llnf'lbl[! GnLJGL.l.JbU bupwr44.bL t turutn .QUUWf'lWLnnLpJWU: UJU mur br4nL 4.br2P!i llnwbgllwllp 4wrbLP t hwzt.J.bL «Vw
twljwu pbrmpjmG 22 : uwtu· llnf'lblQ ~p wztuwtnmll, bpb QGljbrmpJnLUQ !r Lj_owrnu~ zwhnt- lllmlutJ25 Gbp,ppG QpGo: uwtu,pwG hw24.WI140
pwpwctrG. ll ~whG2L1.ml t, np 'TJ=!Q.>U, hwljwr2w4 f'lb~pm llnf'lbLQ Lm6mll !ntGr: Uw- ~wtnubro.
ljwJG zwtn oG4brmpjmGGbr . nrnup mGbG pwrar wor tnbl~r. WJf'l ~WhG2r!i !bG pw- • nr lflnqmll t qtnGLj_mll [!UljbrmpjntG[!,
4_wrwrmll: • ,gwup tnwrr t lluwgbL tnt.l.JwL lflmLr wt.J
lflmLbrp tnllnll.nLpJmGo ,

20
Ralph A. Bing, Financial Analyst's Journal, vol. 27, May-June 1971, pp. 55-60. "Burton Malkiel "Equity Yields, Grouth, and the Stru
" Geoffrey A. Hirt, Stanley B. Block, «Fundamentals of Investment Management», New York, McGraw-Hill vol.53, December 1963, pp. 1004-1031 .
1999, 708 p., p. 174. " Carmine J. Grigoli .Demystifying Dividend Discoun
22
Burton G. Malkiel, John G. Cragg "Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices", American Economi• 1982, pp. 74-86.
Review, vol. 60, September 1970, pp. 601-617. " =!wzl{J1~[ ~WLnJ14b t << UWJ;?nLJl bfl~W qnJ10WJ1

214
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p(i pwctpG oG4Gnll_ zwhmpwpwctGp ll qnun zwhnq- Pwqt.Iwi/Jntl wlf/1 t.IntJbt: CwhmpwpwctGwjpG llnf'lbLGbrmll w~q zwhmpwpw-
pb QGf'lmGbGp, nr 2004 p. zwhmpwpwctGp Lj_owr- ctruubrr 4wutuwwbumllo f'ldt.l.wrwumll t· w!iwbumpJwG gr4LWJGmpJwllp ~wJlu4_nr­
2004 p. ~pGwulj Wflf'lJnLGpGbrnt.J. Lj_owrt.J.nq t.J.w6: UJu tuGf'lrrO lflnrllbL bG LnLObL O! hwutnwtnmu wor llnf'lbLtJ htJllGwf'lrrubrQ23 :
ctGbtnnllup hwllwr zwhwpwctpGQ 44wqllp 14 867
r brljwpp qnr6wpwGn PPC-p 'TJ=!Q.-G Wflf'lJnLGw-
59 llpwt.J.nr. WJUpGp(i' 959 %, tJGw ~WjlwGt.Jnr- uU, = f Co(1+U,)I
(1 + 'l).(Q) 1
wllp, tJGm. tJG!~bu Wflf'lbG Gzt.J.bL t, !Wlflt.j_mll t bljwll- t=l

JU f'lb~m pwctGbtnnllup wrctbpQ 44wqllr QUf'lW·

550, pG!Q uwljwJG, llbr 4wr6ppn4_, !P hwl~­ CH"+ 1 l
uU2 = X---.,.,.
G' lltJWJU bljwlltnwpb[1nlpJWU ULnWUf'lWflLn zbll_llwO 'TI<Q. - u2 ( 1+ 'TI<Q.) N
pwctGbtnnllur l'lpulJwJGmpJmGo: UJu~rnt. · wJum-
PC-r 'TJ=!Q.-G 41JUf'lntG4.r 0.305, WJutJGpu· QUf'lhW· uU =. 1JU1 + uU2
Go: UJu f'lb~pm pwctGbtnnllur ubrppG qtJGo hw nrtnbll.' U1-0 zwhntpwpwctur wor tnbl~G t llr!i!l.l N-rl'l tnwrp!i,
05=48 744} Ur.Q zwhmpwpwctur wor tnbl~u t N-1111 tnwrmg hbtnn,
GtnbuwqrtnwljwG qrwljwGmpJwG llb2 wllbGwtnw C N+1 -Q zwhntpwpctpGG t N+1-rf'l wwrmll:
6wpwGGbr ~Gf'lnt bG, nr WJU llnf'lbLQ Gbrf'lrnqGb· UmJG llnf'lbLnt.l. pwct!ibtnnllur Gbrpru qruo ljwqllmll t 118125 11rwll:
orruwlj, hwllwawjG flWL~
LQ 20 :
PtJGqp' 4.brLm6nll_Gbrr

wpwctGwjpG hw2nr11 llnf'lblQ 4n!4.mll t zwhmpw-

w, =f.
t=l
14867*(1+0.10)
(1+0.305) 1
1
= 45829

wf'lrtll t. nr zwhmpwpwctpGGbrtJ wllbGwllJw wop

r pG!~bu prw4.wgpnrbu uzmll t UtnbGLrG, zwhm- .
w2= 28732 1 _
72297
bu wr2w4.bL pwrar wrf'lJnLGwt.J.bwmpJmG hwum- 0.305-0.20 X (1+0 .305)5 -
Gbru womll bu hwuwwwmu tnbl~.j_ 21
:
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UJu llnf'lbU! hbwwqwJmll Lrwllzw4bL t 4 . Q.rrqnLr!i· wJG hwrllwrbgubLn4. o1m 11r
=f. Co(1+ U)t
t=l ( 1+ 'fl.(Q.) t
4bGuwgp4Lr wbumpJWU£! 2•:

1 brat 'l)<(Q :> u

Q- u
ulb = ___c__N_+~-
67".(0 15+1) = 110303 ('fl.(Q.- U)*(1+ 'fl.(Q.)N
305-0 .15
uu = uU1 + uU2
wr44.bL t turutn .QUUWf'lWLnnLpJWU: UJU mur br4nL 4.br2P!i llnwbgllwllp 4wrbLP t hwzt.J.bL «Vwpmr br4wpr qnrowrwu» PPC-r pwctub-
wztuwtnmll, bpb QGljbrmpJnLUQ !r Lj_owrnu~ zwhnt- lllmlutJ25 Gbp,ppG QpGo: uwtu,pwG hw24.WI140 wGhpwctb2lll t UjWpqbL hbl.lli.JJWL hwpgbpp
>U, hwljwr2w4 f'lb~pm llnf'lbLQ Lm6mll !ntGr: Uw- ~wtnubro.
GbG pwrar wor tnbl~r. WJf'l ~WhG2r!i !bG pw- • nr lflnqmll t qtnGLj_mll [!UljbrmpjntG[!,
• ,gwup tnwrr t lluwgbL tnt.l.JwL lflmLr wt.J.wrtnpG, ll np,gwG t quwhwtnt.J.mll lluwgwo
lflmLbrp tnllnll.nLpJmGo ,

vol. 27, May-June 1971, pp. 55-60. "Burton Malkiel "Equity Yields, Grouth, and the Structure of Share Prices", American Economic Review.
mentals of Investment Management», New York, McGraw-Hill vol.53, December 1963, pp. 1004-1031 .
" Carmine J. Grigoli .Demystifying Dividend Discount Modelsb Merril Lynch Quantitative Research, April
ations and the Structure of Share Prices", American Economi• 1982, pp. 74-86.
-617. " =!wzl{J1~[ ~WLnJ14b t << UWJ;?nLJl bfl~W qnJ10WJ1W0 » PQ-~ pwdObLnnllu!J or!JOw~nl{ :

215
 Ufldbta'ltabflt> cnt4L' PUdt>u VI Ufldt;ta'ltat;(lt> Cnt4U3t> <lbf'lLnn:Jntta3UU "'NJUU

• npgwG t zwhmpctG~ lJ ~rwLJ.np pwctGbum~r pwct~G QGI.jGn11. ~rwLJ.np pwctGb- 5. P~G l.jWL4 qnjnLJ:)JnLU mG~ l11Ul11buwl.jwG 2P
l1n~uG pwct~G nGI.jGnfl. zwhmjpp L11Wpbl.jwG qm~wp[! jmpwgwGvmp Lj"lm~ . · Lj_w6 l11nl.jnuW'll'lnLJQnl[ W!)ctbpfl.~ zml.jwGb!)~
4

• L4WhwG2Ll.n11. hwl11nLJgp qnp6wl.jpgQ: 6. n11n GQ bG hp~Gwl.j l.jnGJmGI.jl11mllWJtlG r

QG'lmLj_~ t, np QGI.jbpmpJnLUQ ql1G4,nL~ t w6~ Ltlm~. npp wlj_wpl11pG ~GwgbL t 5 wnwl[bL ~b6 GzwGwl.jmpJmG W!)ctbpfl.pb!)p
l1Wp~ : UGg~w Lj"lnqr l11Unf1.mpJmGQ qGwhwl114,mu t 3 l11wpp: =!wumGmpJwG Ltlmn~ 7. I"G~1.4ru t Lj1n.~ qwGqlj_w6p, ~reu4,w6
UPC-~ w6r U1bUL4Q [!U'lnLGLj_mu t 4 %, ru4 zwhmpctG~ 4_6wp~G qnp6wl.jpgn' 70 %: I 'lPnLJQGbp~ 1.J W!)L11wpctmpwjpG l.jmpub!)~
2005 p. ~b4 pwctGbl1n~ur pwctrG oG4Gnll. zwhmwr l.jwG[u1bm~n 1.4bL11Q t ppwl.jw- ubpp qGb1~ l[pw:
GwgGbL. hwz4.r wnGbLn4. hbl11LIJWL hwGqwuwGgGbpn: Qul11 nbqpu~G Lj_bpLm6mpJwG' · 8. PU~L4(j t QWfl.WQWI.jwG PW'l~nLJ:)UGbp
WJU 171 578 'lPW~ t, npQ Gzwl.jm~ t' l11Wpbl.jwG zwhnLJPP hw4.bLW6~ U1b~L4Q L4bl11Q t 4wJr t.l11w :
l.jwq~r 96 %: UPC-r 96 % w6o 'l~14,m t ~pwl.jG, nppG, uwl.jwJG, 1.4bL11Q t hbl1u~ 9. I"~G nLfl.fl.nLpJmGGb!lnt.l t tlw4Gg[m~ 6
UPC-~ w6~ L1b~.4r wul11p6wGwl.jwG l.jp6w1m~ ~G wGg~ Lj"lml. npmu l11bll.r t mGb- Lj_b(lLnLOnLJ:}JWU 21WUI.jGbpm~ :
GnLu Lj_bp2~Gu l.jl11pnLI.j Glj_wqm~: 10. n~pG t 6JnLil.P l.jbGuwgpl.jLtl l[bJ1LnL6mpjwG
UGg~w Lj"lmn~ UPC-p w6p L11bUL4Q Glj_wqm~ . pul.j zwhnLpctG~ 4,6wp~G qnp- 11. I"G~L4tlur t l11Gl11buwl.jwG 21WLPnbJ~9
6wl.jpgQ w6m~ t (hwzlj_wpl.jQ l.jwl11wplj_w6 t Q.p~qnLr wnw2wpl.jw6 ~nl1bgwp 26
): Pwct- Lj_w6mpJnLG[!, I.J ~G hw2n(l'W4GmpJ~
Gbl11nuubpp Gbpg~ qpGQ npzlj_m~ t hbl11UJWL l.jbp1.4. L4Wl111.jwGnf1. nGI.jbpmpjmGGbpp pwctGbl1n~u
JnLUI.jl11mJ1WJP 'lruw~4Jg :
12. nrm~GQ bG wnG~p l.jwq~b(4nLPJWG
-uu 1 = 30884 + 65224 + 120011 + 211324 +
11 [!:
(1 +0 ,305) "1 ( 1 +0 ,305) "2 ( 1 +0 ,305)•3 ( 1 +0 ,305) "4 13. np~GQ bG ~pGwul.j hwzl[b1nLpjmG~
Lj_m~ 'lPWUg l[bpLm6mpjmGo:
+ 361599 + __:5:...:3:....:4..:....72=.:9=--- + 775357 + 1023471 = 634587 14. n11nGGQ bG h~Gwl.j gmwG~zb['l!, n~(1U
(1 +0 ,305)"5 (1 +0 ,305) "6 ( 1+0 ,305)"7 ( 1+0 ,305)"8
~btuwGpqn:
15. n('lnGGQ bG W('lctbpf.~ p('lwl.jwG wpctbQ~ qGwhl1~W
l.jwnmg~G h~Qm oG4w6 hp~Gwl.j ul
1241811
l.JU2 =- - - - - - - - - - = 50749
(0 ,305 - 0 ,04) * (1 +0 ,305)"8

l.JU = 634587 + 507 49 = 685336

UJul4runlj_, WJU un1bL~ hwu~,o · pwctGbl1n~ur Gbpg~ wpctben l.jwqunL~ t 685 336
'lPWU :

1. np~GQ bG wpctbfl.~ qGwhl1~

lJ qGbpp hbl11wqw zwpctp l.jwG[uwl11buuw(j
l1Ubuwq~.jG uzwl.jlj_w6 hp~Gwl.j
q!)wl.jwGmpjwG ~b2
~bpn1GQ:
2. n~l'G t wndtiprb~ l[b!LnO~JWG ~m01lwibWL mrtnL~JWO hpliOwl.jwO ul.jqpmG-
QQ, lJ ~G Lj1ntu4wl44.w6 nlnpl11Gbp t oG'lqp.jm~ WJ'l nLfl.fl.nLpJmGo:
3. n~p(j t ~nLU'lWbG1 Lj_bpLm6nLJ:)JWU Lj_bpupg Gbpgu (top-down aproach) IJ
Gbpgu~-Lj_i.J (bottom-up approach) unl1bgm~G!)p l11wppbpmpJmGo:
4. U!)ctbpfl.pbl'lr qGb!'ltl Ll.l'lw ~G1.4ru qn!)6nGGb!'lr wq'lbgmpJmGG t l[b!'m6~ QG'lhw-
Gm!) l11Ul11buwl.jwG, 6JnLfl.WJPU I.J wnG~p l.jwq~b!)L4nJ:WU Lj_b!)LnLOnLJ:)JWU 2P2W-
Gwl.jb!)m~:

26
Carmine J . Grigoli ,Demystifying Dividend Discount Modelsb Merril Lynch Quantitative Research, April
1982, pp. 74-86.

216