SUKI KINARI HYDROPOWER PROJECT

FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT

CHAPTER 2
HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENT
SUKI KINARI HYDROPOWER PROJECT
FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT Chapter 2 Hydrology and Sediment

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 2 HYDROLOGY AND SEDIMENT ....................................................... 1

2.1 CATCHMENT INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1

2.2 BASIC DATA ......................................................................................................... 2
2.2.1 Hydrological Data ....................................................................................... 2
2.2.2 Rainfall ........................................................................................................ 3
2.3 CLIMATE ............................................................................................................. 3
2.4 RUNOFF ............................................................................................................... 5
2.4.1 Runoff Characteristics ............................................................................... 5
2.4.2 Design Basis .............................................................................................. 6
2.4.3 Runoff at Dam Site .................................................................................... 8
2.5 FLOOD ............................................................................................................... 16
2.5.1 Flood Characteristics ............................................................................... 16
2.5.2 Design Flood ............................................................................................ 16
2.5.3 PMF ........................................................................................................... 19
2.5.4 Design Flood at Powerhouse.................................................................. 19
2.6 SEDIMENT .......................................................................................................... 20
2.7 WATER LEVEL-DISCHARGE RELATION CURVE .................................................... 23
2.8 AUTOMATIC HYDROLOGICAL TELEMETRY AND FORECAST SYSTEM ................. 23

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SUKI KINARI HYDROPOWER PROJECT
FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT Chapter 2 Hydrology and Sediment

Chapter 2 Hydrology and Sediment

2.1 Catchment Introduction

Suki Kinari Hydropower Project is located in Kaghan valley in Kunhar River

basin in the east of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, with a catchment of 1311km 2.
The long and narrow river basin is in the mountainous area, ranging from
2,134m to 5,200m in elevation, covered with forests. The riverbed at Naran
Village, about 13km upstream from the project, is sloped at a gradient of 4%; and
the riverbed between Naran Village and Garhi Habibullah, about 80 km
downstream from the project, is sloped at a gradient of 2%. Many tributaries,
mainly originating from the glacier at the elevation of 4,000m, join the river
upstream from the dam site.

The dam site is approximately 2200m above sea level in elevation. Ninety
percent of the drainage area is above El.3000m, and only 10% of the drainage
area is between El.2000m and El.3000m. Please refer to Figure 2.1 for the river
system.

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Figure 2.1 Kunhar River System

2.2 Basic Data

2.2.1 Hydrological Data

The gauging stations located on the Kunhar River are constructed, operated and
managed by the Surface Water Hydrological Project (SWHP) of WAPDA. At this
stage, the flow and sediment data have been collected at Naran, Khanian and
Garhi Habibullah stations. Naran station is located 13km upstream from dam site;
Khanian and Garhi Habibullah stations are located about 16km and 80km
downstream from the dam site respectively. All the 3 stations are sited on

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relatively flat parts of the river and the river courses there are generally straight.
Staff gauges are equipped in all the 3 stations, and they are observed hourly
during the flood season. At other time of the year, they are observed every 4
hours from 08:00 to 16:00 in one day. The data sources are shown in details in
Table 2.2-1.

Table 2.2-1 Hydrological Data of Kunhar River

Drainage Area
Station Period Scource
(km2)
Naran 1042 1960~2008 WAPDA
Khanian 1474 1960~1968 WAPDA
Garhi Habibullah 2342 1960~2008 WAPDA

Flow gauges and climate stations are sited by SK Hydro at the dam site in 2006,
but the data series are too short to be used in design. Data obtained at Garhi
Habibullaj gauge station are not used in design because it is far from the site
dam and the topographical condition there is quite different from that in the river
basin upstream from the dam site. Thus, the design is done based on data
observed at Naran and Khanian stations.

2.2.2 Rainfall

Rainfall data recorded in the major rainfall stations in and close to the drainage
area are shown in Table 2.2-2。

Table 2.2-2 Monthly Rainfall in Kunhar Drainage Area and Neighbouring

Drainage Area (mm)

Elevation
Station Period Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tot
(m)

Astore 2394 1970-2010 45 48 77 82 68 25 25 27 22 20 18 30 487

Chilas 1251 1960-2010 9 15 28 33 28 9 12 13 4 11 4 12 178

Naran 2363 1962-2010 196 223 269 229 163 69 76 60 60 85 65 121 1616

Shinkiari 991 1960-2010 69 108 141 100 59 78 208 265 89 46 33 57 1253

2.3 Climate

In general, the climate of the Suki Kinari project area is governed by two wind
systems. One is the monsoon which persists during the summer months of June

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to September; and the second system includes the Easterly and Westerlies Belts
which dominate the winter months of November to March. Spring and autumn
months are transition periods.

Pakistan is generally affected during summer months by the monsoon weather

system. The monsoon is essentially a maritime air mass movement from the Bay
of Bengal in the south-east and the Arabian Sea to the south.

Accentuation of the seasonal low pressure system initiates the creation of

south-westerly pulses in the Arabian Sea. Simultaneously, the inter-tropical
convergence zone develops over central India causing the advance of a
south-easterly current from the Bay of Bengal. The two warm and moist air
currents meet around the north-east of Pakistan and Kashmir. Frequent short
bursts of heavy rainfall occur under these conditions, resulting in flood producing
runoff. The situation is often associated with strong tropical depressions over the
Bay of Bengal. The monsoon low originating from the Bay of Bengal generally
moves over central India, Rajasthan and into Northern Pakistan and Kashmir.
The winter rainfall season starts towards end of November and is the result of
Western Disturbance or the Westerlies which originate from the Mediterranean
and Caspian Seas. The extra tropical cyclones (known as Western Disturbance)
move at regular intervals from west to east and are usually associated with well
marked cold and warm fronts.

The weather in the project area is characterized by moderate summers and

severe cold winters. The dam site receives rainfall during summer from the
monsoon and snow during the winter. The climatological station at Naran, about
13 km upstream of the dam site shows heavy annual precipitation of over 2 500
mm. There is no data on the division of this between rain and snow, but on the
basis of the temperature data (Table 7.6), it is likely that considerably more than
half of the annual total falls as snow; in the catchment as a whole the proportion
would be significantly higher. The average annual runoff of Kunhar River at
Naran of 1 477 mm shows the magnitude of the annual precipitation over the
catchment. The precipitation data is illustrated in Figure 7.8.

The rainfall data observed at Naran Meteorological Station shows the annual
mean rainfall near the dam site is 1,616mm, with uneven distribution over the
year. The maximum rainfall occurs in March at 269mm; while the minimum

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rainfall occurs in September at 60mm. The evaporation data observed at Naran

Meteorological Station shows the mean annual evaporation is 989mm. No
evaporation data is recorded from January to March due to the freezing
temperature below zero during this time. The maximum evaporation occurs in
July at 216mm. The highest and lowest monthly temperature are 24℃ and
-12℃ respectively; and the extreme highest and lowest temperature are 38℃ in
June and -17℃ in February. The meteorological characteristics are presented in
details in Table 2.3-1.

Table 2.3-1 Meteorological Values Observed at Naran Station

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year
Rainfall (mm) 196 223 269 229 163 69 76 60 60 85 65 121 1616
Evaporation (mm) 129 175 216 190 150 86 43 989
Average of highest
-2 -5 -2 7 16 23 24 24 21 15 10 5
Temperature (℃)
Average of lowest
-9 -12 -9 -1 6 11 13 13 10 5 2 -3
Temperature (℃)
Monthly Mean
-6 -8 -5 3 11 17 19 19 15 10 6 1
Temperature (℃)
Extreme Highest
12 10 13 21 31 38 33 31 31 28 24 18 38
Temperature ℃)
Extreme Lowest
-16 -17 -17 -14 -7 2 4 3 1 -2 -11 -13 -17
Temperature (℃)
Relative Humidity (%) 39 43 37 40 48 51 59 61 57 60 57 46

2.4 Runoff

2.4.1 Runoff Characteristics

The runoff pattern in the Khunar River is dominated by the effects of snowmelt,
with the peak flows occurring in June or July.

The daily mean flow data observed at Naran Station 13km upstream from the
dam site between 1960 and 2009 give the mean annual flow is 46.9m3/s
(equivalent to the mean annual runoff at 1480 Mm 3), and the runoff depth is
1421mm. The annual average runoff does not vary significantly from year to year,
ranging from the minimum of 30.6m3/s in 2007 to the maximum of 63.5m3/s in
1992, and the extremes ratio between the maximum and the minimum is 2.07.
The monthly average runoff at Naran station is shown in Figure 2.4-1, and the
curve of the safety ratio of ten-day average runoff at Naran station is shown in
Figure 2.4-2. Almost 90% of the annual runoff occurs from April to October and

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10% of that occurs from November to March.

Figure 2.4-1 Monthly Flow at Naran Station

Figure 2.4-2 Exceedance Rate of Flow at Naran Station

2.4.2 Design Basis

On the basis of 49 years of data recorded at Naran station from 1960 to 2008, a
P-III frequency curve is fitted and shown in Figure 2.4-3. The computation results
are given in Table 2.4-1.

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Table 2.4-1 Annual Runoff at Different Exceedance Rates at Naran Station

Parameter Runoff at different frequencies (108m3)

Average Cv Cs/Cv 10% 25% 50% 75% 95%

14.8 0.2 5.0 18.7 16.5 14.3 12.6 10.9

Figure 2.4-3 Exceedance Rate of Runoff at Naran Station

Since Naran and Khanian stations have 9 years of overlapping observation, so a
relationship is established between data observed at these two stations to
interpolate and extend the monthly discharge at Khanian station. The
relationship is shown in Figure 2.4-4, which gives a ratio of 0.98. After
interpolation and extension, the 1960-2008 series at Khanian station provide the
mean annual discharge at 69.3m3/s, the mean annual runoff at 2190 Mm3, and
the mean annual runoff depth at 1483mm (the observed runoff depth is
1572mm).

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Figure 2.4-4 Relationship between Monthly Discharge at Naran and Khanian

Stations
2.4.3 Runoff at Dam Site
(1) Runoff series at dam site
The Runoff at dam site is calculated by using the 1960-2008 series at Naran
station and 1960-1968 series at Khanian station.
The incremental drainage area between Naran and Khanian stations is 432km2,
and the mean annual runoff during 1960-2008 in this area is 706Mm3, that is
1634mm in depth. Since the dam site is located between these two stations, the
runoff at dam site is obtained by adding the incremental Interval runoff to the
runoff at Naran station. The Interval drainage area between dam site and Naran
station is 269km2, the runoff generated in the Interval area is 440Mm3 by using
the ratio of drainage area. Thus, according to the computation, the mean annual
runoff at the dam site is 1920Mm3 and the annual average discharge is
60.9m3/s. With the daily discharge series in 1960-2008 at Naran station, the daily
discharge series in 1960-2008 at the dam site is derived using the ratio between
mean annual discharge at Naran and dam site as shown in Annexed Table 1.
The ten-day runoff at dam site is shown in Table 2.4-2.

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Table 2.4-2 Ten-day Flow at Suki Kinari Dam Site In: m3/s
Year Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
First ten days 19.4 17.3 18.6 25.1 47.3 176.7 221.4 99.3 54.6 27.1 17.8 15.4
1960 Middle ten days 18.8 16.5 21.5 28.7 84.3 157.5 174.6 87.7 44.0 22.6 17.3 14.7
Last ten days 17.5 16.6 23.4 30.1 110.7 179.9 131.2 73.0 35.6 19.4 15.4 15.6
First ten days 14.4 14.6 13.1 15.6 34.3 166.9 199.5 106.5 59.1 30.7 16.0 15.4
1961 Middle ten days 14.7 15.1 13.5 17.3 52.9 196.2 179.9 74.4 48.0 24.3 15.2 15.4
Last ten days 14.5 15.1 14.7 24.2 74.0 176.4 151.7 75.8 44.1 19.5 15.6 15.2
First ten days 17.0 12.4 10.2 14.9 58.5 139.7 183.5 117.5 49.2 26.2 14.7 14.3
1962 Middle ten days 16.7 12.6 10.4 20.9 58.1 166.8 151.4 82.5 42.5 21.2 15.1 13.8
Last ten days 14.7 10.4 12.5 41.5 92.8 197.5 184.8 63.3 34.8 17.9 14.3 13.9
First ten days 13.2 9.8 11.1 16.7 66.2 180.7 184.2 104.3 52.9 22.9 16.5 16.3
1963 Middle ten days 12.4 10.2 13.1 31.9 58.6 192.9 170.5 90.8 35.9 20.9 16.3 16.5
Last ten days 10.7 11.1 16.1 32.9 96.1 191.8 125.3 66.8 26.8 18.9 16.3 16.5
First ten days 14.3 7.1 12.2 19.9 75.9 113.4 314.8 150.3 71.4 31.6 19.2 14.0
1964 Middle ten days 11.0 9.4 14.2 26.2 124.0 189.0 221.8 133.1 55.5 26.9 15.1 14.6
Last ten days 8.5 11.7 14.9 37.4 94.5 250.2 175.9 98.3 38.0 20.6 14.0 13.4
First ten days 13.0 12.5 10.2 11.7 46.2 210.7 297.4 152.5 74.5 34.9 17.8 14.7
1965 Middle ten days 13.3 12.4 11.0 15.4 83.2 290.8 308.2 110.6 54.6 26.9 17.5 13.1
Last ten days 12.5 13.0 11.9 15.3 119.5 340.2 267.6 99.0 41.4 23.0 16.6 12.7
First ten days 12.6 10.5 10.8 21.7 55.5 179.6 178.2 146.3 76.5 30.0 19.3 14.0
1966 Middle ten days 12.1 10.6 11.5 28.0 61.2 326.2 203.8 107.7 55.2 28.1 15.6 13.0
Last ten days 11.1 10.7 12.0 33.2 103.3 407.4 207.4 80.2 37.1 24.0 14.2 12.0
First ten days 12.2 9.1 16.4 13.9 48.8 188.1 290.8 151.2 53.0 32.7 18.1 12.2
1967 Middle ten days 12.6 12.3 13.2 19.4 91.4 203.9 215.2 123.9 50.5 27.0 15.9 11.7
Last ten days 11.7 12.0 13.4 48.4 124.2 279.0 191.9 70.9 38.5 22.8 13.1 11.2

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Year Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
First ten days 11.0 9.1 13.0 16.5 55.1 187.2 255.6 153.6 55.3 32.0 22.0 16.9
1968 Middle ten days 9.8 10.9 14.1 22.2 59.3 252.8 200.8 118.7 52.8 25.7 18.3 17.4
Last ten days 9.1 12.7 13.4 53.4 110.2 263.3 150.3 71.2 44.9 21.8 17.0 16.7
First ten days 17.0 17.5 15.8 40.2 70.8 207.5 275.2 175.6 56.3 29.1 25.3 19.0
1969 Middle ten days 16.8 13.3 19.0 38.6 106.8 272.2 276.4 124.1 44.2 27.3 21.7 16.0
Last ten days 14.4 15.2 32.1 36.9 133.9 271.5 221.6 67.4 33.5 24.4 19.8 15.2
First ten days 15.4 16.8 16.4 28.5 68.6 209.8 147.2 80.4 66.5 26.2 19.7 15.5
1970 Middle ten days 15.5 16.7 16.3 39.6 141.0 162.6 107.5 77.3 45.2 24.3 18.0 14.9
Last ten days 16.8 16.6 17.3 72.1 189.1 182.9 73.6 78.2 28.2 24.3 15.5 14.5
First ten days 14.6 12.4 16.7 38.8 63.7 201.2 88.5 78.5 39.6 18.5 13.8 12.2
1971 Middle ten days 14.1 12.8 17.2 41.2 78.0 147.4 83.0 55.5 27.2 15.6 12.8 12.1
Last ten days 13.3 11.2 24.4 60.4 169.4 126.5 83.4 55.9 25.1 14.1 12.1 12.2
First ten days 11.5 12.8 14.7 18.4 42.4 204.3 264.6 129.6 65.1 29.2 21.8 17.6
1972 Middle ten days 10.9 12.9 16.3 22.1 83.1 418.8 218.3 85.0 48.2 26.7 19.3 17.3
Last ten days 12.8 13.6 17.9 31.1 151.1 404.5 188.5 79.6 34.8 23.5 18.9 17.1
First ten days 17.3 17.3 16.6 43.0 151.9 293.1 242.3 98.6 55.9 28.1 18.0 13.4
1973 Middle ten days 16.1 17.4 16.1 54.2 160.5 321.6 172.8 77.5 45.2 24.1 15.5 14.1
Last ten days 18.0 17.7 24.1 94.2 199.7 295.4 122.0 58.1 37.7 20.8 14.6 14.5
First ten days 14.0 12.6 17.0 23.7 79.2 119.2 155.0 89.7 36.3 22.4 15.8 12.1
1974 Middle ten days 13.9 12.3 18.4 37.0 76.7 191.4 169.6 65.3 28.8 20.4 14.8 12.1
Last ten days 13.5 12.9 20.8 52.8 84.1 128.7 127.6 51.9 27.1 17.6 12.9 12.3
First ten days 12.3 11.5 12.7 16.8 81.2 196.1 144.6 100.1 57.3 25.4 18.1 15.4
1975 Middle ten days 12.0 11.6 13.7 21.7 112.8 219.4 171.5 95.5 46.6 23.2 17.0 16.1
Last ten days 11.7 12.1 15.0 38.8 184.9 154.5 103.0 64.9 31.5 20.2 17.8 15.2
First ten days 14.7 13.4 13.0 14.4 56.2 184.1 197.0 125.0 56.1 29.2 20.8 21.4

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Year Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1976 Middle ten days 14.0 12.4 13.6 17.7 109.0 176.7 185.9 81.7 45.2 25.1 16.0 18.1
Last ten days 14.0 13.2 13.4 36.9 140.5 132.7 128.5 62.5 37.3 23.5 20.9 15.2
First ten days 14.1 15.7 10.3 32.9 43.2 146.1 181.6 66.8 44.4 24.2 21.3 14.6
1977 Middle ten days 16.0 13.6 15.6 44.4 79.6 123.7 157.2 66.2 36.7 20.5 18.2 16.9
Last ten days 17.0 12.0 23.3 36.2 132.1 216.1 90.6 58.2 30.7 23.6 16.8 14.3
First ten days 13.2 12.5 10.8 17.8 79.6 209.7 215.7 94.8 38.4 28.0 21.4 15.4
1978 Middle ten days 15.6 11.4 12.2 12.2 117.2 223.9 127.0 71.9 26.6 22.5 20.1 16.9
Last ten days 14.5 11.2 15.4 51.4 159.4 267.2 111.7 57.0 26.7 18.2 18.6 19.1
First ten days 17.0 11.6 24.2 27.0 71.4 99.7 266.5 108.5 48.1 26.9 16.5 22.1
1979 Middle ten days 15.1 10.3 16.2 40.8 78.6 228.0 240.8 79.9 38.8 22.8 16.2 20.0
Last ten days 13.9 8.9 18.5 59.5 69.2 323.3 148.7 59.9 31.1 19.4 17.2 20.0
First ten days 19.4 13.0 11.5 24.9 86.7 247.5 201.4 99.7 46.6 27.7 21.9 23.9
1980 Middle ten days 16.9 12.4 10.6 42.7 109.9 244.3 162.4 74.2 37.7 28.8 16.9 21.1
Last ten days 15.2 12.2 14.3 67.9 157.1 233.6 131.6 53.7 31.9 26.1 11.3 17.4
First ten days 15.3 10.8 6.3 20.7 107.4 196.1 168.0 116.8 26.2 24.7 16.0 21.6
1981 Middle ten days 14.9 9.3 7.8 39.8 193.6 197.1 147.3 69.0 26.8 21.4 15.2 19.7
Last ten days 13.3 7.5 12.9 67.2 233.8 205.3 121.4 36.1 27.1 18.5 11.5 17.5
First ten days 15.1 7.5 12.0 16.9 41.8 130.7 182.2 100.7 34.5 21.9 20.1 21.8
1982 Middle ten days 11.6 7.0 12.4 19.4 68.6 173.5 129.3 62.3 28.4 19.6 19.8 19.8
Last ten days 7.9 8.9 14.9 28.5 79.2 181.7 126.3 42.6 24.8 18.7 18.4 17.4
First ten days 14.9 12.7 11.9 14.2 32.0 115.4 201.9 166.3 70.3 26.7 18.2 20.6
1983 Middle ten days 13.6 12.5 11.7 17.8 42.0 221.5 146.4 111.0 50.5 22.7 18.6 20.4
Last ten days 13.0 12.3 13.5 24.6 77.4 221.9 197.2 99.6 33.5 21.6 19.6 20.4
First ten days 20.0 18.2 16.6 17.0 50.5 271.6 103.8 72.4 43.6 19.6 14.0 11.2
1984 Middle ten days 19.0 15.0 17.0 18.5 76.2 255.8 96.0 64.4 33.6 17.6 12.3 11.0

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Year Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Last ten days 18.4 14.6 16.4 37.6 155.5 146.2 86.6 45.5 25.6 15.5 11.7 10.9
First ten days 10.9 11.1 11.2 24.0 53.6 140.6 99.5 94.0 32.0 27.6 16.2 12.2
1985 Middle ten days 10.7 11.0 13.2 38.0 72.2 102.1 105.1 64.8 30.2 24.1 14.4 11.2
Last ten days 10.8 10.9 16.4 49.6 103.3 75.9 87.4 47.4 26.6 17.8 13.3 10.8
First ten days 10.6 10.9 10.7 11.7 64.1 88.7 318.7 151.6 59.4 32.0 20.0 14.9
1986 Middle ten days 10.7 10.9 11.8 22.0 85.2 186.6 226.8 120.3 49.5 24.7 16.2 14.4
Last ten days 10.8 10.8 10.4 38.5 91.0 399.2 197.4 79.9 41.4 22.8 15.1 13.9
First ten days 13.3 12.9 12.2 14.6 40.4 158.0 206.9 151.0 84.8 26.7 19.5 13.3
1987 Middle ten days 13.0 12.6 12.9 17.8 55.0 158.0 164.3 129.7 55.1 30.9 16.5 11.3
Last ten days 12.9 12.5 13.9 31.7 95.6 171.1 187.9 111.1 45.9 22.6 16.1 10.6
First ten days 9.4 7.1 6.6 25.0 84.1 209.6 226.4 81.4 33.8 18.1 13.8 11.5
1988 Middle ten days 8.2 6.7 6.8 53.4 125.7 184.1 159.8 59.5 28.8 17.3 13.8 11.1
Last ten days 7.8 6.7 10.8 72.9 171.6 225.7 122.8 44.0 22.4 15.2 12.1 10.7
First ten days 11.5 11.5 13.6 23.9 43.6 343.0 169.8 138.2 51.2 30.1 22.2 15.4
1989 Middle ten days 11.5 11.7 16.9 28.8 81.3 210.2 141.4 94.7 45.8 29.6 17.0 13.8
Last ten days 11.4 11.8 17.7 29.9 157.8 190.9 158.8 72.2 36.4 24.7 17.2 13.1
First ten days 12.2 10.2 7.6 11.4 116.5 172.9 181.2 113.4 53.4 26.6 25.9 11.7
1990 Middle ten days 12.1 9.1 10.0 24.3 242.9 204.0 157.8 76.0 46.2 22.3 21.0 9.9
Last ten days 13.2 8.2 11.9 35.7 218.0 221.8 130.4 59.9 45.8 20.2 15.6 7.1
First ten days 6.5 4.6 3.9 16.8 55.9 220.9 252.5 185.3 90.9 35.7 25.5 19.0
1991 Middle ten days 6.2 3.8 4.3 45.3 72.5 255.6 270.1 163.7 59.2 30.1 24.2 17.7
Last ten days 5.5 3.7 4.7 43.4 137.9 279.4 198.1 128.1 50.5 27.3 19.5 16.5
First ten days 15.7 12.3 12.4 16.8 28.2 219.3 300.2 160.1 157.9 51.2 27.6 20.8
1992 Middle ten days 14.5 11.8 12.8 18.9 79.8 282.1 256.9 137.2 68.2 45.7 23.8 18.5
Last ten days 13.5 12.6 16.2 21.2 161.7 314.1 198.5 99.6 54.4 35.1 23.4 17.3

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Year Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
First ten days 15.7 13.3 9.6 5.2 47.6 267.8 252.6 87.8 51.8 41.9 31.0 20.4
1993 Middle ten days 14.6 12.6 6.2 8.6 115.3 254.6 182.7 77.4 41.5 53.8 27.2 17.6
Last ten days 13.7 12.4 5.2 26.7 185.6 217.8 143.8 59.6 34.2 46.4 23.7 15.5
First ten days 21.2 19.7 18.9 25.8 75.0 121.1 272.0 104.9 58.6 36.0 25.6 23.2
1994 Middle ten days 20.5 19.8 18.6 44.8 93.4 152.0 259.9 79.3 55.1 30.1 24.6 22.7
Last ten days 20.0 19.2 19.0 55.1 105.2 195.8 158.0 65.0 40.7 27.0 24.0 22.0
First ten days 22.3 15.7 11.6 12.8 70.7 153.0 216.7 119.5 56.6 32.2 18.9 14.2
1995 Middle ten days 20.1 13.0 11.1 24.3 104.8 248.6 211.4 98.9 44.2 26.2 13.1 18.9
Last ten days 18.6 12.1 10.6 39.2 90.7 175.3 200.1 72.6 36.9 24.8 10.4 15.3
First ten days 12.8 9.5 7.1 7.5 62.6 237.9 258.2 183.5 75.7 37.0 25.3 21.2
1996 Middle ten days 11.2 8.3 6.4 21.4 90.6 321.6 240.7 143.6 43.8 31.1 24.6 19.5
Last ten days 10.5 7.5 5.4 35.1 129.7 304.3 199.5 92.2 33.9 28.6 22.8 16.2
First ten days 14.4 13.3 11.2 8.2 33.5 107.5 127.5 60.5 31.1 24.4 18.7 12.1
1997 Middle ten days 13.2 12.8 9.6 8.2 40.3 160.7 133.8 44.9 26.6 20.8 15.8 10.2
Last ten days 12.7 12.0 8.8 21.1 94.7 191.9 119.4 51.2 24.4 19.6 13.6 8.5
First ten days 7.3 4.6 3.7 3.0 21.1 117.4 157.7 84.8 40.1 22.8 17.6 14.3
1998 Middle ten days 6.1 4.1 3.4 4.1 46.6 111.2 160.2 66.9 30.0 20.3 16.8 14.5
Last ten days 5.1 3.7 3.0 11.0 122.0 125.0 113.2 52.7 26.3 18.3 14.6 13.8
First ten days 13.0 9.3 6.2 6.2 113.0 235.8 146.7 60.3 50.7 28.2 22.6 15.8
1999 Middle ten days 11.8 7.7 5.3 19.0 222.8 242.7 106.0 51.9 40.3 25.9 20.9 13.7
Last ten days 10.7 7.2 4.5 64.4 249.7 214.9 73.7 51.3 33.9 25.1 17.8 11.6
First ten days 10.6 11.3 10.0 20.3 144.6 150.2 119.2 91.8 50.0 29.5 23.4 17.4
2000 Middle ten days 11.1 11.1 9.9 61.5 226.1 176.0 122.2 80.4 38.6 32.5 21.4 16.6
Last ten days 10.6 10.5 13.0 80.0 184.8 153.6 108.4 78.3 41.8 28.5 18.8 15.2
First ten days 15.5 14.8 14.3 32.1 86.0 95.1 68.7 44.2 35.5 22.5 17.8 17.4

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Year Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2001 Middle ten days 15.8 14.8 15.4 42.2 122.2 96.9 70.0 41.6 32.0 20.4 18.4 17.2
Last ten days 15.0 15.5 29.1 56.7 104.3 74.2 59.3 38.0 24.2 18.0 17.9 17.4
First ten days 15.4 11.2 8.2 36.1 73.2 197.1 135.2 68.7 43.2 25.9 18.1 16.3
2002 Middle ten days 13.6 10.0 8.3 61.3 104.9 202.7 98.0 65.8 31.4 22.7 18.4 14.9
Last ten days 12.2 9.3 19.2 75.1 188.4 182.5 88.8 60.2 25.7 18.6 18.5 17.1
First ten days 16.5 11.1 8.7 9.1 22.6 189.8 207.9 100.7 54.6 28.3 21.5 13.3
2003 Middle ten days 13.4 9.4 8.9 13.8 35.0 230.9 172.4 80.2 47.7 24.8 18.1 11.9
Last ten days 12.5 8.5 8.6 17.3 51.3 238.8 140.8 64.1 37.1 23.5 15.0 11.2
First ten days 10.3 7.6 5.8 8.1 52.7 95.4 107.6 78.3 44.6 22.9 16.0 13.0
2004 Middle ten days 9.2 7.4 5.1 24.2 71.9 144.1 114.7 63.0 35.4 20.2 14.4 12.0
Last ten days 8.5 6.3 4.8 34.5 77.0 128.1 96.1 59.9 31.2 19.3 13.9 10.8
First ten days 12.6 9.4 6.6 7.4 50.9 149.4 223.6 118.8 55.7 57.8 40.4 25.7
2005 Middle ten days 15.9 6.2 8.0 6.9 62.4 205.3 227.5 103.7 59.8 53.7 34.2 24.8
Last ten days 13.4 5.5 7.8 20.5 96.5 206.6 158.4 79.0 52.3 45.3 27.7 23.0
First ten days 21.3 13.2 10.0 7.0 30.2 65.2 152.1 87.6 47.4 26.5 14.5 10.5
2006 Middle ten days 20.0 11.0 8.6 7.0 25.6 100.1 149.0 70.9 40.9 21.1 13.8 8.6
Last ten days 16.2 10.9 7.7 10.6 35.3 156.2 100.8 56.8 32.0 16.5 13.1 7.5
First ten days 6.2 3.4 3.2 13.2 112.1 117.5 170.5 118.4 67.4 45.6 23.7 17.4
2007 Middle ten days 5.0 2.4 8.5 17.7 165.0 181.6 153.2 107.8 59.6 36.4 20.5 15.5
Last ten days 3.9 1.7 10.2 21.0 127.7 219.2 138.8 95.1 54.1 28.5 21.2 13.3
First ten days 12.7 5.4 4.7 17.2 97.7 196.3 132.4 86.2 58.6 35.3 19.6 16.2
2008 Middle ten days 10.5 5.4 5.8 31.4 121.8 210.8 127.0 72.7 52.3 28.9 16.9 14.2
Last ten days 8.8 5.1 7.4 61.6 158.5 163.5 97.0 74.4 44.9 24.2 13.9 12.7

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(2) Representativeness analysis of results

The residual mass curve of annual runoff is plotted, as shown in Figure 2.4-5. It
shows the period of 1962-1968 are wet years, the period of 1969-1980 are
average years, and the 1981-1984 period are dry years. The series include long
wet years and dry years, as well as average years; so they are well
representative of the true characteristics of runoff in the river.

Figure 2.4-5 Residual Mass Curve of Annual Runoff at Dam Site

(3) Design flow at dam site
The 1960-2008 flow series at dam site show the annual average flow at dam site
ranges from the minimum of 39.8m3/s in 2006 to the maximum of 82.5m3/s in
1992, and the extremes ratio between the maximum and the minimum is 2.07. In
the period of 1962 to 1974, most of the runoff happens in the period of April to
October, accounting for 90% of the annual runoff; and 10% of the annual runoff
occurs from November to next March.
On the basis of 1960-2008 data series at dam site, a P-III frequency curve is
obtained. And the design annual flow at dam site is shown in Table 2.4-3.
Table 2.4-3 Annual Flow at Different Exceedance Rates at Dam Site

Parameter Runoff at different frequencies (108m3)

Average Cv Cs/Cv 10% 25% 50% 75% 95%

19.2 0.2 5.0 24.4 21.4 18.6 16.4 14.2

(4) Analysis to results

In the Feasibility Study Report by Mott Macdonald in 2008, the runoff at dam site
is also calculated by adding incremental runoff to the runoff observed at the

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upstream gauging station. In the Feasibility Study Report, the runoff series at
Khanian station is extended using daily runoff data, and the mean annual
discharge at dam site calculated to be 60.3m3/s, which is basically the same
(only 1% difference) as the result in this report.
The average runoff depth in the drainage area between Naran and Khanian
stations is observed to be 1733mm during the period 1960-1968, which is higher
than the runoff depth of 1504mm observed at Naran station. If area ratio method
is taken to calculate the flow at dam site on the basis of that at Naran station, the
result might be smaller. In this report, the calculation is more accurate, and the
annual average flow at dam site is 60.9m3/s.

2.5 Flood

2.5.1 Flood Characteristics

Flood in Kunhar River is primarily attributed to snowmelt or storm rainfall.
Out of 49 flood events, only 5 flood events are caused by rainfall. The flood
events in 1962 and 1992 are caused by rainfall, and the flood peaks are about
340 and 517m3/s respectively. In the flood event in 1993, the rainfall resulted in a
discharge of about 648m3/s.
The annual flood events are mostly snow melt floods, occurring following
prolonged hot weather in the dry season of late May and June.
2.5.2 Design Flood
In the tender document in 2012, the design flood at the dam site is re-calculated
with the regional comprehensive method and the statistics method, and the
result is shown in Table 2.5-1.
In this study, the design flood is analyzed with P-III method on the basis of flood
peaks observed at Naran station in the period of 1960-2008, which are shown in
Table 2.5-2. The results of analysis are shown in Table 2.5-3 and Figure 2.5-1.
And then the flood at dam site is calculated with 2/3th power of the area ratio.
As described in Detailed Design Report of Mangla Dam prepared by Mangla
Joint Venture (MJV) in 2003, the flood event in 1992 was observed at Naran
station from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m., but the flood crest passed Naran station in
the deep of night. The Consultant of MJV extended the data series at Naran
station according to the observations, as shown in Figure 2.5-2.
Because of the fault in observation method, the peak discharge might be missed

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in the observation at Naran station in the flood event in 1992. As a result, the
value of the design flood calculated based on flood peaks observed at Naran
station in period of 1960-2008 might be smaller than the real one.
As for the 10000-year flood, the sampling error of 10000-year flood is 24.76%,
which is over 20%. As a result, the calculated 10000-year flood discharge is
increased by 20% to 1963m3/s, which is smaller than the result recommended
result in 2012 the study in 2012. Therefore, the 10000-year flood discharge
recommended in the 2012 study is adopted in this study.
Table 2.5-1 Design Flood at Dam Site in 2012 Study In: m3/s
Results from
Results from Regional Results
Return period (year)
Statistics method comprehensive recommended
method
5 362 390 390
10 431 460 460
50 932 820 820
100 1145 980 980
1000 1845 1510 1510
10000 2545 2030 2030

Table 2.5-2 Flood Peak Series at Naran Station in 1960-2008

Year Q (m3/s) Year Q (m3/s)
1960 184 1984 275
1961 164 1985 138
1962 439 1986 351
1963 200 1987 180
1964 399 1988 267
1965 320 1989 366
1966 464 1990 252
1967 311 1991 347
1968 250 1992 517
1969 255 1993 648
1970 206 1994 274
1971 218 1995 285
1972 360 1996 309
1973 277 1997 165
1974 227 1998 136
1975 219 1999 227

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Year Q (m3/s) Year Q (m3/s)

1976 185 2000 188
1977 211 2001 108
1978 340 2002 172
1979 314 2003 209
1980 300 2004 134
1981 195 2005 258
1982 175 2006 174
1983 272 2007 196
2008 181

Table 2.5-3 Design Flood Obtained in this Study

Flood discharge (m 3/s)
Parameter
0.01%*1.2 0.01% 0.1% 0.5% 1% 2% 5% 20%
Naran station
1404 1069 838 740 642 515 330
Q (m3/s)
Dam Site
1963 1636 1246 977 862 748 600 385
Q (m3/s)

Figure 2.5-1 Frequency Curve of Design Flood at Naran Station

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Figure 2.5-2 Flood Hydrograph at Naran Station in 1992 Extended by Consultant

of MJV
2.5.3 PMF
In the report in 2012, the Sacramento model is adopted to calculate PMF from
PMP, and the PMF at dam site is calculated at 3777m3/s. For lack of precipitation
data, this PMF discharge is used in the study without reviewing with rainfall data.
The hydrograph of PMF at dam site is shown in Figure 2.5-3.

Figure 2.5-3 PMF Hydrograph at Dam Site

2.5.4 Design Flood at Powerhouse
Taking the hydrologic analogy method, the design flood at powerhouse is
derived on the basis of that at dam site.
With the location of dam site and powerhouse provided in the Feasibility Study
Report by Mott MacDonald in 2008, it is measured on Google-Earth that the
powerhouse has a catchment area of 1892km2. And then the flood at
powerhouse site is calculated with 2/3th power of the area ratio and the design

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flood at dam site, as shown in Table 2.5-4.

Table 2.5-4 Design Flood at Suki Kinari HPP Powerhouse
In: m3/s

Return Period (Year) Flood Dsicharge

5 498

10 587

50 1047

100 1251

1000 1928

10000 2592

2.6 Sediment

The natural river channel in the reservoir area is 35 to 40m wide, with the
riverbed gradient of 1.3%. The reservoir area is 3,040m long, and it narrows from
280m wide near dam site to 200m wide at about 1,800m upstream of the dam,
and further to 50m wide at the upper end of the reservoir. The total reservoir
storage is 9.07 million m3 with the normal pool level at El.2,275m. The dead
storage is 4.44 million m3 with the minimum operating water level at El.2,265m.
The intake gate of power station is located in the left bank. The sand sill
upstream from the intake has its crest at El.2,254m, which is 10m higher than the
invert of bottom outlet in the dam. A 185m long stilling basin is provided behind
the water intake, which is divided into two chambers, each having a wetted area
of about 200m2. The mean flow velocity in the chamber is 0.29m/s.
The study team of Pakistan had performed about 1,000 sampling of suspended
load at Naran Station from 1960 to 2005, and concluded that the content of
suspended load was relative to the landslide and river bank erosion, but not
closely related to the amount of discharge in the river. Landslide generally
happens in heavy rain; however, earthquake and thawing could also trigger
landslide. For example, it is observed that the content of suspended load is only
0.055kg/m3 when the flow is 400m3/s (5-year flood); but that content is up to
1.5kg/m3 when the flow is only 19m3/s. It is shown in Figure 2.6-1 the
relationship between flow and sediment content.
The suspended load is usually estimated using the relationship between daily

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content of suspended load and daily discharge, which is established on the basis
of long-term sampling and testing. Since the daily discharge is not closely
related to the daily sediment content for this river, the monthly average content
of suspended load during the period of 1960-2005 is derived using the
relationship between monthly sediment content and monthly discharge, which is
established during the sediment sampling. It is estimated the mean annual
suspended load at dam site is 342,000t.

Sampling of bed load was made from May 25, 2011 to June 15, 2011. On the
basis of bed load sampling and analysis of previous data, the ratio between bed
load and suspended load is estimated to be 25%. In this way, the mean annual
bed load is 85,500t, and the mean annual sediment load at dam site is 427,500t.
The discharge of Kunhar River and sediment load at dam site is presented in
Table 2.6-1.
In terms of gradation of sand samples, the grain size of suspended load varies
between 0.01mm to 5mm, with D50 at about 0.02mm.The grain size of bed load
varies between 0.1mm to 10mm, with D50 at about 1mm. The gradation of
suspended load is shown in Figure 2.6-2.

Figure 2.6-1 Relationship between Suspended Load Concentration and

Discharge in Kunhar River

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Figure 2.7-2 Gradation of Suspended Load

Table 2.6-1 Discharge and Sediment Load at Dam Site

Proportion to
Discharge Runoff Sediment load concentration
Month annual total
m3/s 108m3 104t % kg/m3
1 14.8 0.4 0.17 0.5 0.04
2 12.7 0.31 0.17 0.5 0.06
3 14.2 0.38 0.24 0.7 0.06
4 32.2 0.83 1.09 3.2 0.13
5 98.2 2.63 5.27 15.4 0.20
6 190.4 4.94 14.74 43.1 0.30
7 161.5 4.33 8.14 23.8 0.19
8 87.6 2.35 2.50 7.3 0.11
9 46.2 1.2 1.09 3.2 0.09
10 27.9 0.75 0.38 1.1 0.05
11 20.2 0.52 0.21 0.6 0.04
12 17.1 0.46 0.21 0.6 0.04
Annual mean 60.5 19.08 34.2 100 0.18

During Feasibility Study by Mott MacDonald in 2008, petrographic tests and

gradation analysis were carried out at Punjab University Laboratory.

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The size of grain primarily falls in the range of 0.5-1mm. The bed load consists of
65% of quartz (of which 85% is simple quartz and 15% is compound quartz),
15% of feldspar (including common feldspar and plagioclase), and 20% of rock
debris (including limestone, silica, gneiss, schist, firestone, etc.).

2.7 Water level-discharge relation curve

The Feasibility Study Report in 2008 provides the relation curve between water
level and discharge under the dam and at tailrace of the power station, as shown
in Table 2.7-1.
Table 2.7-1 Stage-Discharge Relation Under Dam and at Tailrace of the Power
Station
Stage-Discharge Relation Stage-Discharge
Immediately D/S from Dam Relation at Tailrace of Plant
H(m) Q（m3/s) H(m) Q（m3/s)
2233.60 150 1346.00 250
2234.65 374 1347.76 500
2235.07 500 1350.62 1000
2236.30 1000 1351.76 1230
2238.39 2100 1353.01 1500
2239.76 3000 1355.08 2000
2240.30 3777 1358.54 3000
1363.16 4656

2.8 Automatic Hydrological Telemetry and Forecast System

Considering that Suki Kinari reservoir has a relatively small live storage, an
automatic hydrological telemetry and forecast system should be provided to
protect the project from flood risk, make better advantage of water resources,
optimize project operation, and enhance the benefits of the project. The system
collects, transmits, and processes the rainfall and temperature data in Kunhar
River basin; then the system performs flow yielding analysis, formulates a flood
forecast, and performs flood routing analysis. Then the system provides
recommendations of project operation according to the hydrological conditions
at dam site.
It is planned to construct the system at a lower elevation in the drainage area in
order to make it easier for operation and maintenance of the system. It keeps the
system operating stably and reliably and being free from the disturbance of
extreme weather conditions and geological disasters.
There are some rainfall stations in the drainage basin, but it is not clear about

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their location, access, and related conditions. In this study, it is planned to

maintain and upgrade 13 existed telemetry rainfall stations. In next detailed
design stage, the number and location of telemetry rainfall stations will be further
studied and determined.
In 2009, Naran station stopped working because of the geological disaster. Then
the authorities established Kaghan station at about 10km downstream from the
dam site. After being refurbished with water level and rainfall telemetry devices,
this station will be used as a gauging station after the dam. In addition, a gauging
station in front of dam will be established. Besides, some cross-sections will be
selected in reservoir area for sediment observation.
The central station is located in the control center of the power station. Its main
function is to receive data from the central station of Suki Kinari hydropower
project, to establish the integrated database and to take the flood control
operation of the reservoir. The communication mode will be determined after
electrical test in site. The alternative communication options include GPRS and
satellite communication.
Instruments for the automatic hydrological telemetry and forecast system are
listed in Table 2.8-1.
Table 2.8-1 Instruments of Automatic Hydrological Telemetry and Forecast
System
Location Instrument In No.
Rainfall instrument Set 1
Control and transmission equipment Set 1
Gauge station in front Optical rainfall instrument Set 1
of dam Water staff Set 1
Sediment sampler Set 1
Deep sediment sampler Set 1
Flow meter Set 1
Gauge station at
Water staff Set 1
tailrace
Warehouse m2 10
Database server Set 1
Computer workstation Set 1
Automatic hydrological
Flood forecasting and dispatching
telemetry and forecast Set 1
software
system
Communication equipment Set 1
UPS Set 1

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Printer Set 1
Air conditioning Set 2
Control and transmission equipment Set 17
Water level gauge Set 2
Rainfall instrument Set 15
Power supply Set 17
cabinet Set 17
Hydrologic monitoring cableway and
Set 1
flow meter
Auxiliary civil works Lot 1

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