Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476

www.elsevier.com/locate/ECSS

Modelling of migration and fate of selected persistent

organic pollutants in the Gulf of Gdansk and the Vistula
catchment (Poland): selected results from the EU ELOISE
EuroCat project
Barbara Zukowskaa,), Jozef Pacynaa,b, Jacek Namiesnika
a
Department of Analytical Chemistry, Chemical Faculty, Gdansk University of Technology,
G. Narutowicza Str. 11/12, 80-952 Gdansk, Poland
b
Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, Norway

Abstract

The ELOISE EU EuroCat project integrated natural and social sciences to link the impacts affecting the coastal sea to the human
activities developed along the catchments. In EuroCat project river catchments’ changes and their impact on the inflow area were
analysed. The information was linked with environmental models. The part of the EU ELOISE EuroCat project focusing on the
Vistula River catchment and the Baltic Sea costal zone was named VisCat. Within the framework of the EU ELOISE EuroCat –
VisCat project, CoZMo-POP (Coastal Zone Model for Persistent Organic Pollutants), a non-steady-state multicompartmental mass
balance model of long-term chemical fate in the coastal environment or the drainage basin of a large lake environment was
used. The model is parameterised and tested herein to simulate the long-term fate and distribution of selected HCHs
(hexachlorocyclohexanes) and PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) in the Gulf of Gdansk and the Vistula River drainage basin
environment. The model can also be used in the future to predict future concentrations in relation to various emission scenarios and
in management of economic development and regulations of substance-emission to this environment. However, this would require
more extensive efforts in the future on model parameterisation and validation in order to increase the confidence in current model
outputs.
Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: persistent organic pollutants; migration; environmental fate; modeling; the Gulf of Gdansk; the Vistula River catchment; EU ELOISE
EuroCat – VisCat project

1. Introduction marine ecosystem takes place. The analysis of catch-

Human activities in the river catchments have strong
impact on the coastal zone. Rivers are denuding
continents and transporting eroded material as sus-
pended solids to the costal zones. As a result of catch-
ments’ impact, degradation and pollution of coastal and
) Corresponding author.
E-mail address: bachaz@poczta.onet.pl (B. Zukowska).
ments’ changes and their impact on the coast as well as
the integrated management of catchments in Europe
became the goal of the EU ELOISE EuroCat (European
Catchments) project financed by the European Union
(from 2001 to 2003) (Salomons, 2004). The aim of
EuroCat project is to integrate natural and social
sciences to link the impacts affecting the coastal sea to
the human activities developed along the catchments. In
this project regional studies focus on four coastal seas

0272-7714/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2004.09.008
468 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476
(the Baltic, the North, the Mediterranean and the Black
Seas) and eight associated the catchments (Vistula, Elbe,
Rhine, Humber, Po, Idrija, Axios, Provadiska) charac-
terized by relevant environmental and management
issues.
VisCat focuses on the Vistula river drainage basin
and the southern Baltic Sea costal zone. The main goal
of the VisCat program was to create a system, which
would be used for the evaluation of environmental
impacts of the Vistula river catchment on the Gulf of
Gdansk. The state of the Gulf of Gdansk contamination
and its load introduced by the Vistula River from
the whole catchment in the past, was studied by a team
from the Department of Analytical Chemistry, Chem-
ical Faculty, Gdansk University of Technology and
Department of Environmental Chemistry and Ecoana-
lytics, Faculty of Chemistry of Nicholas Copernicus
University (Buszewski et al., 2004). Within the frame-
work of the EuroCat project the objective was to
develop and use environmental models for describing
the fluxes and retention of substances discharged to
the coastal zone throughout the river system and
estuaries. Specific goals of this part of the project have
been to:
 Analyse the past and present trends of the contam-
ination level in the Gulf of Gdansk environment
using an appropriate model,
 Study the impact of the activities in the Vistula
catchment on the ecological status of the Gulf of
Gdansk environment, and to
 Answer the question of how quickly pollution
concentrations will decrease after load reductions.
Fig. 1. The Gulf of Gdansk.
Mathematical modelling enables quantitative and
qualitative analysis of processes taking place in a natural
environment. A migration model of the ecosystem may
also be used as a tool for the prognoses of estimated
influence of man’s activity or the analysis of future
changes in a studied environment. The goal of this paper
is to present ongoing work on the development of
a migration and fate model of selected pesticides and
PCBs in the environment of the Vistula River drainage
basin and the Gulf of Gdansk. An existing model has
been parameterised and tested to describe the fate of
selected POPs in the Vistula catchment with emphasis
on the fate of selected POPs in the Gulf of Gdansk.
2. Material and methods
2.1. Area under investigation: the Gulf of Gdansk
and the Vistula catchment
The catchment of the Vistula River covers more than
a half of Poland’s territory. The Vistula River drainage
basin spreads out over an area of around two hundred
square kilometres. Vistula flows into the Gulf of
Gdansk, the area of which covers around 4300 km2.
The Gulf of Gdansk is situated in the southern part of
the Baltic Sea, where the Vistula River has its mouth
(Fig. 1). The climate in this area is moderate. The Gulf
of Gdansk is one of the most polluted areas of the Polish
coastal waters (Kot-Wasik et al., 2003). Along the
southern coast of the Gulf of Gdansk, Gdansk-Sopot-
Gdynia metropolitan area is situated, with a total
population of more than 1 million inhabitants. Major
 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476
industrial activities in the area include shipbuilding,
chemical industries, food processing and fisheries.
2.2. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) studied
in this analysis
One of the most considerable problems of the Gulf
of Gdansk’s environment is contamination by persis-
tent organic pollutants (POPs). These compounds are
generally quite hydrophobic chemicals that have a low
affinity for the aqueous phase and a tendency towards
partitioning into organic phases of suspended solids and
bottom sediments or into the lipid fraction of aquatic
biota. Some POPs show potential for biomagnification,
and therefore the highest concentrations are often found
in the upper trophic levels of aquatic food chains (Jones
and de Voogt, 1999). These features cause changes
in POPs concentration to be seen after many years,
especially in living organisms and sediments. For these
reasons modelling studies focus on fate and transport
of selected persistent organic pollutants in the Vistula
River drainage basin and the Gulf of Gdansk environ-
ment. Among studied chemicals are a-HCH, g-HCH,
PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-101, PCB-153 and PCB-180.
2.2.1. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs)
Certain pesticides are widely distributed in all
compartments of the environment because of their
widespread use, physical-chemical property combina-
tions and persistence in the environment. Because of
their toxicity and potential for biomagnification, they
are of possible threat to the health of humans and ani-
mals. Some of the pesticides are carcinogenic, mutagenic
and teratogenic (Zwir-Ferenc and Biziuk, 2002). Hexa-
chlorocyclohexanes are insecticides, which have been
widely used and dispersed in Europe and in the rest of
the global environment for many decades (Willett et al.,
1998). The main constituent of technical HCH is a-
HCH, and g-HCH is a main constituent in the purified
formulation, called lindane. These two compounds have
a relatively high volatility and a sufficiently long atmo-
spheric lifetime to result in widespread environmental
occurrence (Breivik et al., 1999).
2.2.2. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are hardly bio-
degradable, so even a long time after their introduction,
they can be found in the environment. Because of
their lipophilicity they are sorbed to solid particles
(Sulkowski et al., 2003) and they have a tendency to
bioaccumulate. They are toxic for living organisms and
certain PCBs are carcinogenic (Strucinski et al., 2002;
Kania-Korwel and Su1kowski, 2003). PCBs have been
intentionally produced in substantial amounts world-
wide, and 1700 tonnes of PCBs was produced in Poland
(Sulkowski et al., 2003). PCBs may also be formed in the
469
process of pulp bleaching, disinfection with chlorine,
during incineration of municipal wastes and wood
(Sulkowski et al., 2003). These compounds are formed
from inorganic chlorine and organic material, especially
under limited oxygen content conditions and in the
presence of iron, copper and aluminium (Sulkowski
et al., 2003). They are widely distributed in the envi-
ronment through the inappropriate handling of waste
material, leakage from large condensers or hydraulic
systems, and other sources (HELCOM, 1996; Zhou
et al., 2001).
2.3. Description of the coastal zone model for
persistent organic pollutants (CoZMo-POP)
The aim of this modeling study is to understand and
predict the historical and future transport and fate of
selected POPs in the Gulf of Gdansk and the Vistula
River drainage basin. In the present work CoZMo-POP
(coastal zone model for persistent organic pollutants),
a non-steady-state multicompartmental mass balance
model of long-term chemical fate in a coastal environ-
ment was used. A detailed description of CoZMo-POP
model has been provided elsewhere (Wania et al., 2000).
The model was parameterised by environmental param-
eters of the Vistula River drainage basin and the Gulf of
Gdansk and used to simulate the behaviours of selected
pesticides and PCBs in the period from 1970 to 2000.
Using a similar modelling approach, it has been shown
that it is possible to predict concentrations of HCHs in
various environmental compartments of the Baltic Sea
drainage basin as a whole within an order of magnitude,
often within a factor of two (Breivik and Wania, 2002).
The model utilised herein also enables to estimate
the fractions of the selected POPs currently present in
various parts of that environment, which are derived
from: recent releases within the drainage basin; past
emissions in the drainage basin; and contaminated air
masses being advected into the area (Wania et al., 2000).
A main focus is on the relative importance of the
riverine and atmospheric pathway for delivering selected
POPs to the ecosystem of the Gulf of Gdansk.
Furthermore, the model may also help to analyse what
fraction of the riverine load is actually atmospherically
derived vs. being emitted directly to the soils, plants and
rivers of a drainage basin (Wania et al., 2000).
2.3.1. Contaminant transport within the model
The simplified picture of contaminant transport from
terrestrial environment of the Vistula River drainage
basin to the Gulf of Gdansk environment through at-
mospheric and riverine pathway is shown in Fig. 2.
The environment is divided into a number of
compartments within the model, which are considered
well-mixed and homogeneous, with respect to both envi-
ronmental characteristics and chemical contamination.
470 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476

Fig. 2. Schematic picture of contaminant transport from the terrestrial environment of the Vistula River drainage basin to the Gulf of Gdansk
environment through atmospheric and river pathways (modified after Wania et al., 2000).

These environmental compartments are then linked by
a variety of intercompartmental transfer processes
(Wania et al., 2000). The schematic representation of the
types of environmental compartments in the model of
the Gulf of Gdansk and the Vistula River drainage basin
and how they are interconnected is presented in Fig. 3.
The main processes are the two-directional ex-
changes, or cycling, of studied chemicals between the
atmosphere and the aquatic and terrestrial surfaces, and
the uni-directional run-off of chemicals from soil to
fresh water and further to the marine system (Wania
et al., 2000). Descriptions of processes that could lead to
loss of chemicals during the transport in atmosphere
and river water, i.e. degradation in individual media and
permanent retention within the environment (such as
sediment burial) are also included in the model (Wania
et al., 2000).
2.3.2. Input parameters
The expressions in the model describe phase parti-
tioning, interphase transport, and degradation (Wania
et al., 2000). The transport of POPs is strongly
influenced by the movement of air, water, and partic-
ulate organic carbon (POC), so complete mass balances
synthesizing the fluxes of these three environmental
media have been constructed for the entire basin. The
contaminant mass balance is superimposed on these
mass balances for air, water, and POC. Environmental
phase partitioning is based on the equilibrium partition
coefficients for octanol and water (KOW), octanol and
air (KOA) as well as air and water (KAW). The tem-
perature dependence of these coefficients is expressed
using heats of phase transfer. The model additionally
requires degradation half-lives of studied chemicals and
the corresponding activation energies in all compart-
ments (Wania et al., 2000). Table 1 lists the selected
properties of POPs applied in the modelling studies.
The CoZMo-POP model was additionally parameter-
ized to describe the environmental characteristics of
the study area (atmospheric parameters, forest canopy,
hydrology, soils, water and meteorology). There is also
a need to specify chemical emissions into the environment
and the inflow of chemicals from the surrounding regions
by air and seawater. Emission estimates for the HCHs

Fig. 3. The types of environmental compartments in the model of the Gulf of Gdansk and the Vistula River drainage basin and interconnections
between them (Wania et al., 2000).
 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476 471

Table 1
Properties of HCHs and PCBs applied in the model calculations
Molecular mass (M), partition coefficients (K), heats of phase transfer (DU), and reaction rate with OH radicals (kR)
M log KOW log KAW log KOA DUOW DUAW DUOA kR at 25  C
(g molÿ1) at 25  C at 25  C at 25  C (kJ molÿ1) (kJ molÿ1) (kJ molÿ1) (cm3 moleculeÿ1 sÿ1)
a-HCH 290.85 (f) 3.98 (b) ÿ3.56 (b) 7.54 (d) ÿ10.51 (b) 51.35 (b) ÿ61.86 (b) 1.53!10ÿ13 (c)
g-HCH 290.85 (f) 3.93 (b) ÿ4.08 (b) 8.01 (d) ÿ22.23 (b) 43.15 (b) ÿ65.38 (b) 1.95!10ÿ13 (c)
PCB-28 257.54 (a) 5.66 (e) ÿ2.19 (d) 7.85 (e) ÿ26.3 (e) 52.3 (e) ÿ78.5 (e) 1.07!10ÿ12 (c)
PCB-52 291.99 (a) 5.91 (e) ÿ2.31 (d) 8.22 (e) ÿ27.3 (e) 54.1 (e) ÿ81.4 (e) 7.31!10ÿ13 (c)
PCB-101 326.43 (a) 6.33 (e) ÿ2.40 (d) 8.73 (e) ÿ23.8 (e) 59.7 (e) ÿ83.5 (e) 3.35!10ÿ13 (c)
PCB-153 360.9 (a) 6.87 (e) ÿ2.57 (d) 9.44 (e) ÿ31.1 (e) 62.8 (e) ÿ93.9 (e) 1.64!10ÿ13 (c)
PCB-180 395.3 (a) 7.16 (e) ÿ3 (d) 10.16 (e) ÿ29.1 (e) 63.6 (e) ÿ92.8 (e) 1.05!10ÿ13 (c)
Air Forest canopy Soil Water Sediment
Ea HL (h) Ea HL Ea HL Ea HL (h) Ea
(kJ molÿ1) (kJ molÿ1) (h) (kJ molÿ1) (h) (kJ molÿ1) (kJ molÿ1)
a-HCH 11.2 (c) 2190 (f) 30 (f) 2190 (f) 30 (f) 8760 (f) 30 (f) 17,520 (f) 30 (f)
g-HCH 14.2 (c) 2190 (f) 2190 (f) 8760 (f) 17,520 (f)
PCB-28 13.72 (c) 10,000 (a) 30 (a) 10,000 (a) 30 (a) 5500 (a) 30 (a) 17,000 (a) 30 (a)
PCB-52 10.46 (c) 17,000 (a) 17,000 (a) 10,000 (a) 55,000 (a)
PCB-101 12.92 (c) 100,000 (a) 100,000 (a) 31,000 (a) 55,000 (a)
PCB-153 15.38 (c) 550,000 (a) 550,000 (a) 55,000 (a) 170,000 (a)
PCB-180 17.84 (c) 1,000,000 (a) 1,000,000 (a) 55,000 (a) 170,000 (a)
HL – degradation half-lives at 25  C. Ea – activation energies in various compartments. (a) Based on information in Wania and Daly (2002); (b)
Beyer et al. (2002); (c) Beyer et al. (2003); (d) Calculated using log KAW Z log KOW ÿ log KOA; (e) Li et al. (2003); and (f) Breivik and Wania (2002).

were estimated from the annual national data on these
chemicals usage from the period from 1970 to 1996
(Pacyna, 1999; Breivik et al., 1999) and allocated to
the Vistula River drainage basin area. Furthermore, the
assumption was made that usage of chemicals was con-
stant at 1996-level up to the year 2003. The insecticides
technical HCH and lindane (O99% g-HCH) are com-
monly applied during spring (Breivik and Wania, 2002),
and a seasonal distribution was therefore superimposed
onto the annual release rate, assuming peak emissions in
May. Experimental values presented in the literature
suggested a mode of release to the environment of 17.5%
to the atmosphere, 80% to agricultural soils and 2.5% to
fresh water (based on the information from UNEP, 1995;
Scholtz and Van Heyst, 2000). The emission estimates for
selected PCBs was based on data presented for Poland by
Breivik et al. (2002).
3. Results and discussion
The CoZMo-POP model may assist in developing
a quantitative understanding of the environmental be-
haviour of a-HCH, g-HCH, PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-
101, PCB-153 and PCB-180 in our study region.
However, the possibility to conduct an extensive model
evaluation for these chemicals (detailed comparison
between model and observations) is considered limited
at present. This is mainly due to the limited availability
of suitable monitoring data from the study region and
the time period of interest (1970–2003). The current
results presented herein should therefore be considered
as illustrative, rather than definitive. Still, the model
can be helpful in understanding interactions, which
determine the environmental fate of selected POPs in the
region of interest. It can be achieved by studying a wide
range of outputs, which can be generated by the model.
3.1. The reservoirs of HCHs and PCBs within
the Vistula catchment and the Gulf of
Gdansk environment
The model allows the assessment of the distribution
of selected POPs among environmental compartments
as a function of time. Fig. 4 presents the estimated
relative distribution of selected chemicals within various
environmental compartments and how this may have
changed in time.
3.1.1. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs)
From Figs. 4a,b it can be seen that agricultural soils
are suggested to have been the dominant environmental
reservoir for HCHs within the environment of the
Vistula River drainage basin and the Gulf of Gdansk
(about 80%). Notable fractions of both HCHs are
additionally found in the coastal water compartment
(around 10% for both HCHs, above 20% of g-HCH in
the late eighties). The amount of HCHs in the soil
compartment is directly related to their emissions into
the environment. A rapid decrease of HCHs emissions
occurred in the seventies. This led to decrease of the
amount of HCHs in the soil compartment in the
eighties. Fresh water sediments, fresh water, forest soil,
forest canopy and air compartments contribute little to
472 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476

Fig. 4. Calculated relative distribution of a-HCH, g-HCH, PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-101, PCB-153 and PCB-180 among the various compartments of
the Vistula River drainage basin and the Gulf of Gdansk environment from 1970 to 2003 (percentage of contaminants’ total amount in the
environment found in individual compartments versus time).

the total environmental amount. When comparing the
two studied pesticides, g-HCH reacts faster to temporal
changes in emissions as compared to a-HCH. This may
in part be due to the elevated water solubility of g-HCH
as compared to a-HCH (Table 1), causing a greater
environmental mobility in the aqueous phase.
3.1.2. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)
During the period from 1970 to 2003, agricultural
soil was the most important environmental reservoir
for PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-101 (Fig. 4). A second
important reservoir for these PCBs is forest soil. The
relative difference between these two soil reservoirs in
part reflects the larger area of the agricultural soils in
the study area. Smaller amounts of PCBs are addition-
ally found in the forest canopy and air. On the other
hand, the most significant reservoirs of PCB-153 and
PCB-180 are the agricultural and forest soil compart-
ments (40–50% in each). It is interesting to see that
there is a shift towards an increasing relative amount of
 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476
the heavier PCBs in the forest soils. This may be at-
tributed to the so-called forest filter effect, which may
operate as a pump of heavier PCBs from the at-
mosphere to the forest soil (Wania and McLachlan,
2001). During the early time period, there are also
significant shifts in the relative media distribution over
time. This is mainly in response to the significant
changes in primary atmospheric emissions. Peak emis-
sions are suggested around 1974, which coincides with
elevated prevalence of PCBs in the air and forest can-
opy compartments. As emissions gradually decreased in
time, soils become key pools of atmospherically de-
livered PCBs.
3.2. PCBs and HCHs pathways within the Vistula
catchment and the Gulf of Gdansk environment
The cumulative fluxes and process rates (in kg) for
four contaminants in the Vistula River drainage basin
and the Gulf of Gdansk are presented in Fig. 5. The
Fig. 5. Cumulative fluxes of a-HCH, g-HCH, PCB-28, PCB-180 in the Vistula River drainage basin and the Gulf of Gdansk environment from 1970
to 2003 in kg.
473
estimations are based on the cumulative overall emission
rate in the period from 1970 to 2003 within the studied
region. Because of the differences in chemical character-
istics, the differences in emissions and emission patterns,
the relative importance of various fluxes and processes
differ strongly for each chemical presented in Fig. 5. For
all studied chemicals, the net transfer of pollutants is
from the Gulf of Gdansk to the open sea. That situation
is caused by the net water flux from the Gulf of Gdansk
to the open sea as well as by the higher concentrations in
the Gulf of Gdansk environment.
3.2.1. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs)
It can be seen that both HCHs behave quite similar in
the studied environment. Both pesticides are similarly
emitted to the agricultural soils and to the atmosphere (a
small amount is also assumed being emitted to fresh
water). The main fraction of the emitted HCHs is
degraded in the agricultural soil. Additionally, atmo-
spheric reaction turns out to be an important loss
474 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476
mechanism for these compounds. HCHs may also
evaporate from soils and water compartments and they
are transported into and out from the studied area by
atmospheric advection. The HCH fluxes between
freshwater/coastal water and fresh water sediments/
coastal sediments are much smaller then the fluxes
between the atmosphere and fresh and coastal water
compartments, suggesting that sediments are not signif-
icant sinks for these compounds. The degradation losses
in freshwater and coastal water are furthermore higher
than the sedimentation flux and degradation in both
sediments compartments.
An important role in the migration and fate of the
studied pesticides is played by intermedia transport
processes between the atmosphere and underlying
surface compartments (forest canopy, forest soil, agri-
cultural soil, coastal water and fresh water). The
atmospheric input of a-HCH to the Gulf of Gdansk is
more than twice as high as compared to the riverine
input. For g-HCH it turns out that these two pathways
are almost of similar magnitude, which is in part
attributed to the higher water solubility of g-HCH.
The depositional flux of both HCHs to the forest
canopy, forest soil, agricultural soils and coastal water
compartments exceeds the volatilisation flux from these
compartments. Opposite situation occurred only in case
of the volatilisation flux from freshwater, which exceeds
the depositional flux. The comparable large fluxes
between the air and forest compartments in both di-
rections indicate that the forest canopy acts as a
temporary storage compartment for these compounds.
3.2.2. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)
The main fraction of both PCBs is degraded in the air
(Fig. 5). The model estimations suggest that the
atmospheric transport is much more important than
the riverine pathway in delivering PCBs to the Gulf of
Gdansk. It should be cautioned, however, that only
atmospheric emissions are considered in these calcula-
tions. For both PCBs, the depositional flux from the
atmosphere to the forest canopy, forest soil, agricultural
soils, fresh water and coastal water compartments ex-
ceed the volatilisation flux from these compartments.
PCB-180 exhibits a stronger affinity for particles as
compared to PCB-28, and thus a limited propensity for
re-volatilisation. In case of PCB-28, the following
compartments are of decreasing significance in terms
of degradation losses: agricultural soil, forest soil, forest
canopy, coastal water, fresh water sediments, fresh
water and eventually coastal sediments. In case of PCB-
180 these are: forest soil, agricultural soil, fresh water
sediments, forest canopy, coastal water, coastal sedi-
ment and fresh water.
Overall, the model results indicate very different
environmental behaviour and fate of the two PCBs
included in Fig. 5. For example, the model results
suggest that PCB-28 present in the aquatic compart-
ments (fresh water and coastal water) may exhibit a
strong propensity for re-volatilisation back to the at-
mosphere. On the contrary, PCB-180 that ends up in the
aquatic compartments may be transported down to the
sediment layers for which a significant fraction is buried.
4. Further model evaluation
As indicated earlier, a proper model evaluation is
only possible by comparing predicted concentrations
with the data from measurement campaigns. In our
study there was a problem with comparing model
predictions with monitoring data from EU ELOISE
EuroCat-VisCat campaigns, because of frequent de-
tection limit problems. As an example, a comparison
between measured and predicted seawater concentra-
tions from 1998 to 2003 are shown in Fig. 6.
It can be clearly seen that the predicted a-HCH
concentrations were lower than the measured concen-
trations (which are given as detection limit). In order to
conduct a proper model evaluation comparing absolute
seawater concentrations, there is thus a need to try
reducing the method’s detection limit. Additionally, it
would be desirable to conduct monitoring of selected
POPs in other environmental compartments (e.g. sedi-
ments), where detection limit problems are believed to
be less of an issue. Furthermore, there is a need to im-
prove crucial input parameters to the model to achieve
more confidence in model outputs. In particular, it
seems desirable to improve current emission estimates
for the study region and time-period of interest. This
will be the key issue of the future work.
Fig. 6. Comparison between measured surface water concentrations
and predicted concentrations in the coastal water compartment of the
Gulf of Gdansk. Results are presented for a-HCH during the period
from 1998 up to 2003.
 B. Zukowska et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 62 (2005) 467–476
5. Conclusions
The present state of the Gulf of Gdansk with respect
to POPs is considered to be mainly the effect of the past,
when large amounts of pollutants were discharged from
rivers and atmosphere. A dynamic modelling ap-
proaches is therefore desirable, reflecting the potential
lifetime of these pollutants in the environment. The
CoZMoPOP model has been parameterized and tested
for a-HCH, g-HCH, PCB-28, PCB-52, PCB-101, PCB-
153 and PCB-180 for the Gulf of Gdansk and the
Vistula River drainage basin. The model is capable of
predicting concentrations of these chemicals in various
media and allows an assessment of the environmental
distribution and fate of these chemicals as a function
of time. The model can facilitate the assessment of
the relative importance of various sources, processes,
reservoirs and pathways for mentioned POPs. A pre-
liminary comparison of predicted and observed concen-
trations of selected POPs in the Gulf of Gdansk water
shows that detection limit problems currently mitigates
the possibilities to carry out a thorough model eva-
luation. Furthermore, the current parameterisation of
the model needs further improvement. If a proper model
evaluation can be successfully carried out in the future,
the model can be used to predict future concentrations
in relation to various emissions scenarios. This could be
of great value for decision makers, aiming to improve
the environment of the study region.
Acknowledgements
The work presented in this paper was carried out
partly within the EUROCAT project (EVK1-CT-2000-
00044) and partly within the EU Centre of Excellence in
Environmental Analysis and Monitoring (EVK1-CT-
2002-80010) at the Gdansk University of Technology,
Gdansk, Poland. The EUROCAT project is a part of
the EU ELOISE framework of projects on coastal zone.
The authors would like to thank Knut Breivik for
comments on the manuscript. The staff of the De-
partment of Analytical Chemistry, the Chemical Faculty
at the Gdansk University of Technology is also
acknowledged for the permission to use their measure-
ment data in the paper.
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