The Evaluation of Shrinking Cities

THE EVALUATION OF SHRINKING
CITIES:
Causes, Processes, and Effects of
Urban Population Loss
Case Studies of Detroit, Manchester, Ivanovo and Singapore
Selin ŞENOL
Gdańsk University of Technology, Poland
selinsenol@std.iyte.edu.tr
The Evaluation Of Shrinking Cities: Causes, Progress and Effects of Urban Population Loss
-Case Studies of Detroit, Manchester, Ivanovo and Singapore
INDEX
1. Abstract………………………………………………………………………....……3
2. Introduction……………………………………………………………………….…4
2.1. Shrinking City as a concept…………………………………………….…..4
3. Causes of Shrinkage…………………………………...……………………….……5
4. Effects of Shrinkage……………………………………………………………..…..5
4.1. Economic Effects…………………………………………………………....5
4.2. Social and Infrastructural Effects……………………………………...….6
4.3. Political Effects……………………………………………………………...6
5. Case Studies………………………………………………………………….……....6
5.1. Detroit Case Study ……....………………………………………..…..…....6
5.1.1. Cause - Suburbanization…………………………………………6
5.1.2. Process…………………………………………………………..…7
5.1.3. Effects………………………………………………………….…..8
5.2. Manchester Case Study……………………………………………..….....10
5.2.1. Cause - Deindustrialization…………………………………..…10
5.2.2. Process……………………………………………………………10
5.2.3. Effects…………………………………………………………….12
5.3. Ivanovo Case Study………………………………………….…...……......13
5.3.1. Cause - Collapse of Socialist Organizations………………........13
5.3.2. Process…………………………………………………………....14
5.3.3. Effects………………………………………………………….....16
5.4. Singapore Case Study………………………………………..……………17
5.4.1. Cause - Human lifespan and fertility rate change…………....17
5.4.2. Process……………………………………………………..…….18
1
5.4.3. Effects………………………………………………………..…………..19
6. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………20
REFERENCES……………………………………………………...……………22
2
THE EVALUATION OF SHRINKING CITIES:
Causes, Process and Effects of Urban Population Loss
-Case Studies of Detroit, Manchester and Ivanovo
Abstract
The city is an organism. An organism is a living individual which has a definite boundary and
a certain size. It does not change just by adding parts to it but through reorganizing itself when
it reaches its limits or its thresholds. It is made of different parts but the form and the function
are always linked to each other. The organism has a dynamic balance on its own and it is self-
repairing. The cycles of life and death is a normal process for an organism as it is for a city.
Like organisms, settlements are born, grow, mature, decline and die eventually. Therefore, a
settlement's birth is the gathering of the features that can be called a 'city' on its structure, and
the loss of these features can be called death.
The term 'shrinking city' describes a city that has gone through the process of industrialization,
reached a dense population and finally have lost its population. Shrinkage as a concept refers
to the decline of the city in terms of area and potential, and also losing its population due to
urban crises, riots, and recessions. These conditions lead the city to shrink as a living organism.
Shrinkage began to be discussed for cities in the 19th and 20th centuries in addition to the events
of the Middle Ages and early modern times.
It is false to evaluate shrinkage only as a demographic process due to its strong related to
economic, social and cultural dimensions of the city. In 1989, after the Berlin Wall was
demolished, millions of people, especially the young population, have migrated from East
Germany to the west. According to this situation, the German government started on a project
that was called 'The Shrinking Cities Project' in 2004 in order to deal with the process and study
other cities in similar conditions. The reasons for shrinkage were examined in the cities of
Leipzig in Germany, Ivanovo in Russia, Manchester and Liverpool in England, and Detroit in
the USA. In addition to these, there are various studies and publications on the subject of many
researchers. In this study, the causes, progresses and effects of shrinkage will be analyzed
through the comparison of the cases of Detroit, Manchester, Ivanovo, and Singapore.
3
2. Introduction
2.1. Shrinking City as a concept
Shrinking Cities is a phenomenon that generally refers to a metropolitan area with a

dense population that experiences a significant population loss in a short period of time. The
process can also be called urban degradation, counter-urbanization, metropolitan
deconcentration, and metropolitan turnaround. In this context, to describe it further, according
to Gatzweiler et al. (2003), shrinkage is the sum of negative aspects that come up in the areas
of population amount, business places, added value and in many other areas in the city center
(Borsdorf and Bender 2010:212; Heineberg 2006: 246-247). This situation creates a wave
among demographic, economic, physical and sociological aspects in the city. In this
perspective, shrinkage is a complex process that includes and affects different functions of the
city. Another definition, according to Shrinking Cities International Research Network
(SCIRN), is that a shrinking city is a densely populated urbanized area where a population
decrease of more than 0.15% was observed for five years without interruption. It is also an
urban area which was affected by the structural crisis as a result of the progressive economic
transformation process.
Shrinking cities are one of the main problems that currently exist in urban areas.
Globalization, integration with the European Union, changes in the system, the restructuring of
post-communism countries and the shifting in demographic patterns and behaviors had a great
impact on the structure and dynamics of the changes in the population of countries and cities.
But, it should be noted that shrinkage is not a single-dimensional process that can be diminished
to only demographic changes. It is indeed a complex and multi-faceted notion. It should be
analyzed as a complex determinant system that conditions both the process and the results. The
most crucial determinants which have the greatest impact on shrinking cities are economic
transformation, industrialization, global economic transformations and the results of the second
demographic transition (Haase, 2013, p.32). The industrial facilities which were located in such
cities demolished or went through a serious crisis. As a result, the employment structure
changed, the majority of the population experienced unemployment, and especially the young
4
and well-educated people migrated to the cities which could offer better living conditions and
better job opportunities. Therefore, the 'shrinking cities' phenomenon refers to cities in which
experience reduction in population, prolonged economic crisis, and decreased employment rate
are observed. Generally, the cities which are affected by this process have a negative population
growth rate and migration balance. The changes in the functional, spatial, social and
demographic structure were affected by these transformations. Especially, the cities in which
there are no differentiated and various functions and where the dominant economic branch was
industry, a much difficult adaptation process to the new market operation could be observed.
These cities are now facing a crisis, since they were unable to develop a modern industry, and
could not transform into a modern service center in the transformation era (Monika, 2017, p.39).
3. Causes of Shrinkage
The phenomenon of shrinking cities has various approaches and explanations by many
researchers. Main causes can be listed like this:
1. Structural change- Suburbanization (outflow of people from the city center), Detroit
2. Economical change- Deindustrialization (reallocation of industry and service), Manchester
3. Political change- Collapse of socialist organizations in Eastern Europe, Ivanovo
4. Human lifespan and fertility rate change- Higher levels of death rates compared to birth
rates and decrease in fertility rates, Singapore
4. Effects of Shrinkage
4.1. Economic Effects
Cities generally begin to shrink because of the economic decline that was originated
from wars, debts or lack of production and workforce. A great number of communities are
affected by the population decline. Usually these communities are consisted of native people
and long-term inhabitants, so the initial population is not a large number. The moving outflow
of people then, damages the production potential and the quality of life in these cities. As a
result, there occurs a decline in employment and productivity (Schteke, 2007, p. 485).
5
4.2. Social and Infrastructural Effects
There has been going on some serious social metamorphosis due to fertility decline,
changes in life expectancy, aging population, and household structure. A different reason of
this transformation is job-centered migration. This causes demands of different households, and
creates difficulty in terms of urban housing market and the development of new land or urban
planning. Population decline is generally a safety threathening process in a city and demoralizes
the government. When it is combined with a weak economy, the urban infrastructure begins to
break from the lack of running from the inhabitants.
4.3. Political Effects
In order to mention some recents events worldwide, Brexit in United Kingdom, the
election of Donald Trump for the President of United States, the rise of extreme-right populist
parties in France and more recently in Germany can be shown as examples which have the
common features of being widely portrayed as the political consequences of the decline of old
industrialized regions and the shrinkage in Western countries. On the one hand, the tendency to
concentrate the national economic prosperity in large metropolitan centers, and on the other
hand the growing regional marginalisation, peripheralization or even irremediable decline is
now entering the public debate (Béal, et al., 2017).
5. Case Studies
5.1. Detroit case study
5.1.1. Cause - Suburbanization
Suburbanization is the outward growth of an urban development that is able to engulf

its surrrounding villages and towns into a greater urban agglomeration. Suburbs are the areas
that was created by the upper class that used to live in the city center, but was convinced that
the center was for lower working class that lived near the factories, and wanted to isolate
themselves from these conditions. The term, suburbanization was first mentioned by Ebenezer
Howard (1850-1928), the founder of the Garden City movement. It was proposed as a utopia in
6
which people would move to the outerskirts of the city to enjoy better living conditions and
improve the bad condition of the city centers which were crowded. These thoughts were
acknowledged and became popular all over the world, gained support from many urban
planners, and became the new form of urbanization.
5.1.2. Process
Detroit, USA, was the ultimate 'motor city' that was created during the industrial era.
The first street that was covered with concrete and the first city motorway that was built was in
here. During 1920s, the city center was transforming to a economic giant with the skyscrapers
built one after another. Cars, in the 20th century, were the biggest consumer product and the
heart of its mass production was Detroit. It was not a surprise that the population went from
285,700 to 1.85 million in fifty years. Detroit became the ideal model for a new type of
metropolis and a modern society (Boggs et al., 2004).
Detroit also became a centre of capitalism, a major industrial hub which needed a great
deal of manpower. Thus, a mass migration took place due to the great number of job
opportunities and people could get a job without even being educated, and the majority of the
immigrants were the African-American people who came from generally the south part. The
problem was, the African-American population was rising tremendously however, there was
very little space that they could settle and live, because Detroit was a very segregated city in
terms of race and ethnicity. Racial tensions were spiked, 47 people were killed in three days by
the citizens, there were rebellions and white inhabitants started moving to the suburbs, the
moving which is known as the 'white flight'. They created a new urban settlement for the
working white middle-class.
There were two motives for this development. First was the political encouragement of
the building of new highways. Later it was the automobile crisis that erupted due to the lack of
white middle-class population and the jobs that were disappearing. This movement caused the
automobile plants to also move to the the suburbs, basically abandoning the city enter and the
community in Detroit.
7
In the 50s, around twelve new automobile plants were built, all in the suburb area and
none in the center of the city. The companies maintained their presence in Detroit ,but they
were no longer the effective economical tool for Detroit. The city's biggest problem was that it
has always been dependent on jobs which were in the manufacturing industry.In addition, new
jobs could not be generated in other industries because nearly everthing was shifted to the
suburbs (Schett, 2011, p. 8)
5.1.3. Effects
In 1985, the last shopping mall in the city center ,Hudson's, which was the last element
of the moving retail sector was closed. New roads and highways were being built that were
connecting the city center with the suburb are and also connecting the suburb areas to each
other. The suburbia becae the highlight of the city, when nothing was done in the inner center.
That being said, the government tried to attract some companies back to the center by reducing
the taxes. There were already some factories but they could not provide enough jobs. The results
were devestating. Since 1950, Detroit lost nearly half of its inhabitants and hundreds of
thousands of jobs. Once densely populated areas became a ghetto for unemployed African-
American people which was dominated by violence and crime with vacant houses, empty areas,
nailed-up windows and burnt down houses.
 To sum up;
1950: 1 849 568 inhabitants
2003: 921 758 inhabitants
population decline: 50,2%
 Between 1950-2000 the inner city of Detroit lost 147 000 houses due to demolishing
or arson. During this period about 1 000 000 new houses were built in the suburbs.
 Between 1980 and 1990 there have been 0 – 13 building permissions each year in the
inner city of Detroit. It’s been 10 000 each year in the suburbs.
 In 1999 the average annual income per capita in Detroit was only half of the average
annual income per capita of the suburbs.
8
 Since 1960 Detroit lost 165 000 of 230 000 industrial jobs. Service sector only offered
30 000 new ones. Suburbs gained 50 000 industrial jobs and 600 000 jobs in the
service sector since 1960.
 Figure 1 . Demographic and Physical decline of Detroit (Schett, 2011, p.9)
Figure 2 . Percentage of postal adresses unoccupied in 2009 (Schett, 2011, p.9)
Image 1. Detroit
9
5.2. Manchester Case Study
5.2.1. Cause - Deindustrialization
During the post-World War II era, also referred as 'the golden age of capitalism', a
worldwide economic expansion took place between 1950-1971. It was a period of economic
prosperity, a second industrial revolution, with the achievement of high and sustained levels of
economic and productivity growth in the industrial field.
After 1971, with the effect of the Bretton Woods monetary system collapsing (1971),
the international trade in manufactured goods growing, the economic crisis after the Oil Crisis
(1973) and the stock market crash (1973-74), this long termed phase ended and cities began to
experience deindustrialization, and because Manchester was one of the first western Europian
cities to experience the long boom of the golden age, in which the unemployment rates were
significantly lower and the city was having migration even from overseas, it was also the first
to experience the economic recession period (Middleton & Roger, 2000).
Deindustialization (1973-1975), which has started with the economic recession or the
restructuring of economy- in the case of Manchester-, is the process by which manufacturing
declines in a society or a region as a proportion of total economic activity. Due to being the
opposite of industrialization, it generally represents a step backward in the growth of a society's
economy (Ball et al.,2002).
5.2.2. Progress
In 1913, Manchester was the key point and the center of the global cotton market which
produced 65% of the wolds cotton based clothing. But 45% of all the produced goods were
being shipped to only one country: India. When the first World War made exporting impossible
to catch up with the overall demand, the Indian market was captured by Japan and some other
local firms. As a result, in 1945, Manchester was only able to export a fifth of their former
shipped goods. In 1959, the government tried to make interventions in the cotton industry in
order to create stimulation, but the inustry was already collapsed. Nevertheless, Manchester
was able to survive until the 60s, thanks to its other existing industries (Schett, 2012).
10
The city has become a center of metal processing, engineering, food and drinks, road
and rail transport and clothing industry. Furthermore, it had become a center of global trade
since the Manchester Ship Canal was built in 1894 and connected the inland city with the ocean.
It had overcome its dependence on the Liverpool Harbour and remained as the third out of the
four most important harbours in Great Britain. But with the “container revolution” of the 1970s
the final fall of a metropole was near. Only harbors that could ship huge container-ships and
had enough storage capacity were able to survive, which was not the case with Manchester.
After the Second World War, industrial sector was no longer the phenomenon all around
the world. Service sector gained importance, which caused the cities that were concentrated and
developed in only one sector of economy to struggle the most. Manchester was one of these
cities and was relying heavily on manufacturing industry, and that the city had a connection
with the sea and strong connections through railways, the export of these manufactured products
were easily held. In the post-war era, all countries were trying to strenghten their damaged
economy thus, the global demand for products was significantly decreased. This was another
major cause of the shrinkage in the city.
Also, the first oil crisis that took place in 1973, lead to the OPEC (Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries) restricting their output around 5% and as a result, the prices
were increased 70%. This caused the inflation to rise from 9.2 percent to 26.6 percent in just
two years which eventually led to a sharp rising in unemployment all over Great Britain
(Schett,2012).
Then Margaret Thatcher assumed office in May 1979 and almost immediately inflation
skyrocketed as did unemployment. The latter rise was due to the harsh austerity that her
government inflicted at the same time as the US economy and other advanced nations entered
a major economic recession. Thatcher maintained these elevated levels of unemployment for
most of her tenure and by the time she was replaced by John Major, British unemployment was
still well above anything that had been seen in the 1970s before she took office (Mitchell,2016).
11
Figure 3. Great Britain's unemployment rates between 1971-1990 (Mitchell, 2016)
5.2.3. Effects
The catastrophic process of deindustrialization following the Second World War, the
impact was tremendous: Between 1961 and 1983 Manchester lost 17,5% of its population and
150 000 jobs, every fourth factory had to close. The biggest economic change since the
Industrial Revolution was the economy’s relocation towards the service sector (banking and
consulting services), but it couldn’t compensate for the jobs that were destroyed by the foregone
events (Paxton, 2016).
The decay of the inner city started and in the following years, Manchester shrank nearly
by 50%. The unplanned suburbanization and the establishment of the new mid-class suburbs
were followed by planned resettlement of the inhabitants to the newly built public housing areas
outside the city as the living conditions in their former houses were horrible. In the mid 70s,
only about 400 people were living in the city center. The area has become a ghost town that
was generally described as 'emptied', characterised by social exclusion, crime and deteriorating
living conditions.
 To sum up;
12
 In 1961 the industrial sector in Manchester offered 220 000 jobs, which is half of all
offered jobs. In 2001 it was only 35 000, which is a quarter.
 In the late 1960s Liverpool and Manchester had 100 000 unemployed people, it had
been 20 000 before. In 2000 there have been 30 000 in each city.
 From 1981 to 1996 Merseyside lost 83 000 jobs, which is one of three.
Image 2. Manchester in 1975
5.3. Ivanovo Case Study
5.3.1. Cause - Fall of Soviet Union
The fall of the Soviet Union started in the late 1980s and it was completed when the
country broke up into fifteen independent countries on December 25, 1991. This event was the
signal that the Cold War between the United aStates and the Soviet Union has come to an end.
On 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev was elected as the General Secretary of the Soviet Union.
At that time, the economy was not in a good place because of the world oil prices collapsed in
1986 after the Oil Shock in 1973 and the energy crisis in 1979 (Time, 2008). Gorbachev had
two initial goals in order to revive the Soviet economy and he was aware that this would require
a reform on the underlying political and social structures. These goals were called Glasnost and
Perestroika.
13
Glasnost allowed for a more openness in the government and more freedom of speech.
According to it, the government officials was going to be held responsible to the public for their
own actions. With that, people started to protest the government and the media started to report
about the issues going on, for the first time. Many of the fifteen states that were going to declare
their independence used this newly found freedom in order to express their desire for
independence.
Perestroika, on the other hand, meant 'restructuring'. Gorbachev wanted to restructure

the Soviet economy for it to work more efficiently. For the purpose, he allowed some private
ownership and he released the heavy pressure that the government had on the economy.
With the newly found freedom in Gorbachev's reforms, some of the fifteen states began
to rebel. The central government of the Soviet Union started to feel the pressure of so many
states demanding their independence. On December 25, 1991, Soviet Union was dissolved into
15 separate countries which include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
5.3.2. Process
Ivanovo is the capital city of a district of the same name which had, at the beginning of
the 19th century, over thirty textile factories and well educated, militant working class. This put
the city in a position that it is in a danger of a strike movement if something happened that
would not benefit these workers. It was also an important and town in the process of taking over
of the Soviet. It was first Lenin, who described the city as the 'third proletarian capital' along
with Moscow and St. Petersburg (Schett, 2012).
In 1905, there was a general strike of the textile workers. The first labor councils were
founded after this event which later took over the city and Ivanovo became the capital of a new
administration union in 1917. Nevertheless, this period was a short period which resulted with
a boom in building industry and construction until Lenin's take over. In this new period, the city
began to concentrate on heavy manufacturing industry. Few new factories were built, however,
textile sector remained as the leading sector in Ivanovo. After that, the city became more and
more insignificant and the economy was under a threat of collapsing but, with a controlled
14
economy with sales guarantee and fixed prices prevented a collapse (Schett, 2012). Because of
the economic output decreasing steadily, Ivanovo took in many workers, a majority of them
being women which caused a major housing shortage problem. Most of the construction
materials were already used in the building of factories so, housing units were created for these
workers in which they had to share rooms with eachother. It was not before 1960s, that the city
could offer proper housing with technical progress. The city was growing, both physically and
in terms of population, but Ivanovo was struggling to improve its economic output and also was
highly dependent on this monatary economy. So it would be correct to say that Ivanovo was
already dealing with shrinkage back then.
In 1991, when the Soviet Union was collapsed, because of the change in economical
and administrative structure, this industry's monostructure came to its downfall (Arkhipov et
al.). Ivanovo lost almost all of its production resources and sales markets including its large,
fully-automated '8th March Textile Factory', which was then converted into a shopping mall.
Its economy could not compete with other countries leading in the textile sector like Turkey
and East Asia, and with the cotton import from Uzbekistan getting more and more expensive
the economic crisis was finally there. The sharp transition from a centralized economy to a free
sales market led to a dramatic decrease in the production volume. In 1998, the output was 22%
of the output that was in 1989. As a result of all these, unemployment rates drastically increased
and those who got to keep their jobs earned minimum wages. The living standards also
decreased sharply and people had to return to the only thing that the city still could offer them,
which was land. They built their 'dachas' which is a a form of a shack that people have lands
for gardening and growing vegetables. Dachas were located in the outskirts of the city center
and the reason of urban population loss in the central city.
 To sum up;
 In the Ivanovo area life expectation for women is 71 years; for men it is 55,5; with an
average of 62,7 years this is the lowest rate in Central Russia. It is dropped by 4 years
since 1990.
 In 2002 82% of Ivanovo’s population was living below the poverty line. In 2003 the
poverty level was 2 065 roubles (59 €).
15
 In 1998 the industrial output of the Ivanovo area was only one fifth of the industrial
output in 1980. On average, there is just one birth under three deaths in the Ivanovo
area.
5.3.3. Effects
Due to the economy shrinking, only a few companies could adapt to the new post-
socialistic boundary conditions which resulted in forming of a huge gap between a few winners
and many losers. Also, the fall of the Soviet Union meant that the financial aid from the
government was no longer existed. More and more people moved away from the settlements
due to that shortage. Nowadays, the government is only supporting the evacuation of such
settlements (Schett, 2012).
The cutting of govenmental aid also affected public service. Schools, hospital and other
governmental facilities were shut down or became a part of the privatization fees. Decreasing
life standards eventually resulted in decreased life expectancy. Between 1990 and 2001, life
expectancy dank from 69,2 years to 65,3 years due to the overall poverty, insufficient nutrition,
alcoholism, poor health care or increased suicide rates.
Figure 4. Population change between 1990-2018 in Ivanovo region
16
Image 3. Ivanovo in 2000s
5.4. Singapore Case Study
5.4.1. Cause- Human lifespan and fertility rate change
Human lifespan, in other words, life expectancy, is the average time which can be
measured statistically and shows how long a human or other organism is expected to live
considering demographic factors like the birth year, current age and gender.
There are diverse causes for the issue of decline in life expectancy. Dr Nicole Osevala,
an internist and geriatrician at Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center says that
while the young and middle-aged population are expecting a decline in their life expectancy,
the old aged (+65) population saw no decrease in how long they are expected to live (Gilbert,
17
2017). Osevala claims that the life expectancy tend to change due to lifestyle choices such as
not integrating exercise to the daily life, a poor diet that is being followed, suicide rates
increasing and even texting while driving. Also, she emphasizes that cancer-related deaths has
increased significantly in the last years.
On the other hand, fertility rate is the number of live births a woman gives on a specific
length of time. It is generally expressed as the number of births per 1000 women aged between
15 and 44 in one year. Without considering immigration, the fertility rate should be more than
2.1 in order to keep the population stable. When the rate decreases below 2.1, the country's total
population starts to decline and therefore, its urban population, which is the case of Singapore
currently (Biswas et al., 2018).
5.4.2. Process
In the late 1960s, Singapore was experiencing a decline in birth rates due to the
govenment policy of 'Stop-at-Two'. The policy was encouraging women, especially the ones
without O-Level qualifications -a national examination and certificate in Singapore to
determine a person's education level which should be above ordinary to qualify- to give birth
to maximum two children, should be sterilised in order to maintain the population control after
the Second World War. Women were also encouraged to use contraceptives, did not have the
right to take maternity leave from their jobs for their third children, were charged higher fees
for each additional child in hospitals, and so on. Because of the huge pressure, the majority of
women - especially the ones without O-Level qualifications- went through sterilisation process
at a very young age (around 20) in order to avoid any of these circumstances.
This policy and the fertility rates dropping, lead to a great inevitable demographic
transition. As Singapore was getting more and more modernised in the 70s, fertility rates
continued to drop dramatically. There was a perceived demographic trend which concerned the
govenment that well educated women -most of whom college educated- were less likely to
marry and procreate. In order to achieve the otherwise, the government encouraged men to
choose highly educated women as wives.
18
In 1986, the declining birth rates is Singapore was recognized as a serious problem by
the government and the need of a reverse policy was accepted (Have Three or More). Family
Planning and Population Board was established at the same year however, the total fertility rate
continued to drop. By 1987, it was 1.44 (Yap, 1995). The government encouraged families to
have more children, promoted 'the joys of marriage and parenthood', but this method was not
efficient. The fertility rate of Singapore was falling with the overall population and elderly
population was increasing as a result. According to the Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the
Singaporean people were ' passively watching themselves going extinct'.
5.4.3. Effects
With the change of politics and the government promoting parents to have more
children, people were baffled. They were told that having more than two children was
antisocial. They started to wonder if they were told to have more children for the sake of
themselves or the country. On the contrary, the Prime Minister at that time remained calm and
optimistic about the issues. He kept in mind that the fertility rate would rise back to 2.1 and the
population rate would be restored to the replacement rate by 1995 (Dept. of Statistics, 2014).
Unfortunately, this was not the case. Sociologists observed that there was e new
generation of women whose habits and the way of thinking were completely different, in a way
of a new breed of women. This new breed of women were mostly involved in their carreers,
were used to have a specific amount of free time and have more material possessions, therefore
they were not as welcoming to financial incentives as 60s and 70s women.
As of 2018, the fertility rate is 1.16, much lower than 2.1, the rate which is needed to
keep the population stable. Sociologist Tan Ern Ser claims, 'Fewer babies are being born as a
result of more Singaporeans remaining single or marrying later, trends that are unlikely to
change.'. With fewer babies being born, Singapore's future workforce population decreases,
which makes the country less attractive in term of investments. Combined with the ageing
population, among with other problems, there are fewer people to support a growing pool of
old people.
19
Figure 5. Babies born by birth order in Singapore (https://www.straitstimes.com)
Figure 6. Deaths from 2013 to 2017 in Singapore (https://www.straitstimes.com)
6. Conclusion
Urban population loss, in other words urban shrinkage, is considered as a popular and
fertile topic to conduct researches about. If an analysis were made regarding the topic,it would
show that the topic has been subject to many diverse interpretations. Some researchers think
that urban population loss is a natural outcome of urban evolution process. Other claim it
happens due to the suburbanization process which feeds from the development of urban centers.
Another part focuses on the demographic factor while some are interpreting economic factors
in order to explain urban shrinkage. Nonetheless, shrinkage is not explained in a uniform
structure across all urban areas. The combination of factors play a different part on different
levels (Fol & Sabot, 2010).
20
It is estimated that the world population will stop growing by 2070-2100. Till that time,
the cities in the process of developing are estimated to continue their growth, whereas many
countries in the western world will have to deal with shrinkage, like some are dealing currently.
In view of all, it would be strategic to consider different factors that trigger urban shrinkage on
various levels in urban planning and designing discipline in order for the cities to easily adapt
to these kind of changes (Schett, 2012).
Image 4. Population decline rates around the world (www.shrinkingcities.com)
Figure 7. Annual urban growth rates for various geographic locations from 1950 to 2050
21
REFERENCES
1. Ball, Terence; Bellamy, Richard Paul (2002). The Cambridge history of twentieth-century
political thought. Cambridge University Press. p. 45. ISBN 1-85984-429-4.
2. Beal, V., et al., 2017, Shrinking Cities, Retrieved from www.metropolitiques.com
3. Biswas, A.K., et al., 2018, Commentary: Managing shrinking cities in an expanding world,
Retrieved from www.channelnewsasia.com
4. Fol, S & Sabot, E.C., 2010, Urban Decline and Shrinking Cities: A Critical Assessment of
Approaches to Urban Shrinkage, Published in Annales de Géographie.
5. Gilbert, S., 2017, The Medical Minute: Lower life expectancy likely caused by lifestyle
choices, Published in Penn State News
6. Hayır, M., 2014, Yaşayan Bir Organizma olarak şehir- Büzüşen şehir Kavramı ve Leipzig
Örneği.
7. Mende, D. & Oswalt P., 2004, Shrinking Cities - Detroit, Retrieved from
www.shrinkingcities.com
8. Middleton, Roger (2000). The British Economy Since 1945. Palgrave Macmillan. p. 3.
ISBN 0-333-68483-4.
9. Mui, Teng Yap (1995). "Singapore's 'Three or More' Policy: The First Five Years". Asia-
Pacific Population Journal. 10 (4): 39–52. Retrieved 11 August 2011.
10. Musiał-Malago, M., 2017, Shrinking Cities in Poland: Demographic Perspective, Published
in “Ovidius” University Annals, Economic Sciences Series Volume XVII, Issue 2 /2017.
11. "Oil Squeeze". Time. 1979-02-05. Archived from the original on 7 March 2008. Retrieved
7 September 2013.
12. Paxton, F., 2016, ''The Manchester Miracle'': how did a city in decline become the poster
child for urban regeneration?, Retrieved from www.citymetric.com
13. Population planning in Singapore, 2019, Retrieved from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_planning_in_Singapore#cite_note-LOC1989-10
14. Post-World War 2 economic expansion, 2019, Retrieved from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_economic_expansion
15. 1973-1975 Recession, 2019, Retrieved from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%931975_recession#United_Kingdom
16. Schett, S., 2012, An Analysis of Shrinking Cities, Published in Institut für Städtebau und
Raumplanung, Universität Innsbruck.
17. Schteke, Sophie; Dagmar Haase (September 2007). "Multi-Criteria Assessment of Socio-
Environmental Aspects in Shrinking Cities. Experiences from Eastern Germany".
Environmental Impact Assessment Review. 28: 485.
22
18. "Singapore: Population Control Policies". Library of Congress Country Studies (1989).
Library of Congress. Retrieved 11 August 2011.
23

The Evaluation of Shrinking Cities

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

The Evaluation of Shrinking Cities

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

THE EVALUATION OF SHRINKING

Case Studies of Detroit, Manchester, Ivanovo and Singapore

2.1. Shrinking City as a concept…………………………………………….…..4

4.1. Economic Effects…………………………………………………………....5

4.2. Social and Infrastructural Effects……………………………………...….6

4.3. Political Effects……………………………………………………………...6

5.1. Detroit Case Study ……....………………………………………..…..…....6

5.1.1. Cause - Suburbanization…………………………………………6

5.2. Manchester Case Study……………………………………………..….....10

5.2.1. Cause - Deindustrialization…………………………………..…10

5.3. Ivanovo Case Study………………………………………….…...……......13

5.3.1. Cause - Collapse of Socialist Organizations………………........13

5.4. Singapore Case Study………………………………………..……………17

5.4.1. Cause - Human lifespan and fertility rate change…………....17

THE EVALUATION OF SHRINKING CITIES:

Causes, Process and Effects of Urban Population Loss

-Case Studies of Detroit, Manchester and Ivanovo

2.1. Shrinking City as a concept

Shrinking Cities is a phenomenon that generally refers to a metropolitan area with a

4.1. Economic Effects

4.2. Social and Infrastructural Effects

4.3. Political Effects

5.1. Detroit case study

5.1.1. Cause - Suburbanization

Suburbanization is the outward growth of an urban development that is able to engulf

 Figure 1 . Demographic and Physical decline of Detroit (Schett, 2011, p.9)

Figure 2 . Percentage of postal adresses unoccupied in 2009 (Schett, 2011, p.9)

5.2. Manchester Case Study

5.2.1. Cause - Deindustrialization

Figure 3. Great Britain's unemployment rates between 1971-1990 (Mitchell, 2016)

Image 2. Manchester in 1975

5.3. Ivanovo Case Study

5.3.1. Cause - Fall of Soviet Union

Perestroika, on the other hand, meant 'restructuring'. Gorbachev wanted to restructure

Figure 4. Population change between 1990-2018 in Ivanovo region

Image 3. Ivanovo in 2000s

5.4. Singapore Case Study

5.4.1. Cause- Human lifespan and fertility rate change

Figure 5. Babies born by birth order in Singapore (https://www.straitstimes.com)

Figure 6. Deaths from 2013 to 2017 in Singapore (https://www.straitstimes.com)

Image 4. Population decline rates around the world (www.shrinkingcities.com)

You might also like