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Equity|TWSE|Consumer Products|Consumer Staples 10 December 2018
Figure 6 OPM by Region China (63% of total 2018E revenue): Pressures on revenue and OPM
16.0% 14.4% The rectification effect of 2nd generation stores on revenue
13.5%
13.5% The forward momentum brought by 2nd generation stores will lose gas along with the
13.0% 13.0% 13.0%
12.0% 12.3% 11.0%
10.5% increased ratio of 2nd generation stores. GM’s revenue growth has decelerated to 3%
11.4% 9.3% 8.0% in 2018E from c.7% in 2016/17, when remodeling initiatives rolled out. We expect GM
8.0% 8.4% 6.7%
8.3% 7.0% to finish remodeling all of its stores in 2022E (Figure 7), which will result in a -1%
6.2% revenue growth. 2nd generation stores help extend customers’ stay and raise the
6.8%
4.0% 5.2% 4.5% higher-margin beverage mix to 30% from 25%, due to enlarged seating areas. We
2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
China Taiwan US Overall
believe that GM’s per store sales growth in China will fall to -7% in 2022E from 4% in
Source: Company data, Team estimates 2014.
Dec-17
Jul-17
Oct-18
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
May-18
Jan-15
We believe that PB will not be the only player aiming for rapid expansion in the US
Asian bakery market, due to a low entry barrier. PB, along with possible new entrants
who replicate GM’s business strategy, will end up eroding GM’s market and cut its
revenue growth nearly in half to 10% in 2020E, from 28% in 2018E.
Source: Company data
Taiwan (16%): Revenue to shrink amid fiercer competition
Figure 13 GM’s Store Number & Per Store Declining per store sales due to settled refurbishment and under-monetized
Sales YoY in Taiwan expansion
500
-3% Since store format upgrade has ended in 1Q18, and organic growth loses momentum
474
467 480 in a competitive market, we expect GM’s per store sales to decrease by 9%/8% YoY in
-5% 458
446 -7% 460 2019-20E (Figure 13). Similar to refurbishment in China, GM introduced the 2 nd
-7%
-9% 429 -8% 440 generation stores in Taiwan in 2013-14, leading to an SSSG uptick after the initial
-9% -9% launch and refurbishment each year. However, with refurbishment complete in 1Q18
-11% -11% 420
and no strategies for a next revamp round, we thus do not envisage any construction
-13% 400
2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
stimulus to the topline.
Store number in Taiwan (RHS)
GM has been unable to retain its customers amongst this fierce competition. Its
Per store sales YOY in Taiwan (%; LHS)
Source: Company data, Team estimates registered customer members are at 170,000, the fewest among competitors, and
almost half of rival Louisa Coffee. Although GM will continue to steadily expand its
Figure 14 Taiwan Coffee Shops Recent 5- store number to 474 in 2021E from 429 in 2017, its failure to defend amid fiercer
year Sales CAGR & Number of Members competition has already reflected on its 2% sales CAGR in 2012-2017, indicative of
Thousand under-monetized expansion (Figure 14). We thus believe GM’s revenue growth will
8,000 60%
fall to c.6% in 2019-20E because of failure to boost retention rates, from c.4% in 2017-
6,000 40% 18E.
4,000
2% 20%
2,000
0 0%
Since GM's earnings growth of -2% in 2019E is lower than most of the peers', we argue
that GM does deserve a discount to the average P/E multiple in its major business
regions (vs. 25.6x/29.8x/23.1x in Taiwan/Greater China/the US) (Table 3). Our 20x
multiple is also reasonable given its earnings growth in Asia Pacific region scope. GM
is now traded at 25x 2019E EPS, and we think the current valuation premium comes
from excess optimism about GM’s growth story overseas, while the market overlooks
potentially vanishing competitive advantage due to rising engagement by other
players and the absence of moat.
2723 TT Gourmet Master 236.5 1,400 13.12 9.56 9.38 -20% -2% 19.8 20.2
1216 TT Uni-President 68.9 12,537 7.01 3.09 3.29 -56% 6% 22.0 20.7
2912 TT President Chain Store Corp 313.0 10,406 29.83 9.89 10.75 -67% 9% 31.2 28.7
5903 TT Taiw an FamilyMart 213.0 1,564 6.30 7.30 7.89 15% 9% 29.6 27.4
Greater China
6862 HK Haidilao 17.2 11,734 n.a. 0.32 0.50 66% 57% 47.3 30.2
601933 CH Yonghui Superstores 7.3 10,871 0.19 0.17 0.24 -13% 42% 46.2 33.0
Table 5 WACC Assumption 345 HK Vitasoy 31.4 4,044 0.56 0.67 0.80 20% 20% 44.6 37.5
603866 CH Toly Bread 47.8 3,099 1.14 1.38 1.68 25% 22% 32.9 27.0
WACC Assumptions 1579 HK Yihai 19.9 2,590 0.27 0.46 0.61 78% 35% 37.0 27.9
Risk-free Rate 10yr TW Gov’t Bond Yield 603711 CH Xiangpiaopiao 19.1 1,273 0.74 0.73 0.90 14% 27% 28.6 23.2
Monthly Returns to Regress MAKRO TB Siam Marko 33.0 4,753 1.29 1.20 1.26 -6% 5% 26.9 25.7
Beta against TWSE Index’s over 5- 2212 JP Yamazaki Baking 2,411 4,404 114.41 73.94 86.49 -36% 17% 29.8 25.5
SSG SP Sheng Siong Group 1.1 1,161 0.05 0.05 0.05 1% 11% 22.1 20.4
yr Horizon
BREAD SP BreadTalk Group 0.9 332 0.04 0.02 0.03 -46% 26% 38.6 31.2
Cost of Equity CAPM Model
Average 27.9 24.7
Weighted Average Borrowing U.S.
Cost of Debt Rate By Tranches Based on MCD US McDonald's 183.0 131,271 6.67 7.74 8.23 12% 3% 22.0 20.7
3Q18 Disclosures SBUX US Starbucks 65.5 75,131 2.67 2.42 2.73 6% 3% 25.0 22.2
Weighted Average Tax Rate YUM US Yum! Brand 90.4 27,177 4.23 3.72 3.80 14% -2% 23.4 22.9
Tax Rate YUMC US Yum China Holdings 35.0 12,233 1.50 1.51 1.62 6% 6% 21.4 20.0
Based on Regional Earnings %
CMG US Chipotle Mexican Grill 467.4 10,721 6.26 8.52 11.94 26% 39% 45.3 32.3
Source: Team estimates
DNKN US Dunkin' Brands Group 71.6 5,115 2.28 2.83 2.99 7% 2% 21.9 20.7
WEN US Wendy's 17.1 3,552 0.42 0.55 0.66 29% 9% 27.3 22.7
Table 6 WACC Calculation Average 26.6 23.1
WACC Calculation
Source: Bloomberg, Team estimates
Cost of Equity 7.3%
Tax Rate 25% Our model factors in our earnings forecast up to 2023E and a terminal growth rate of
Debt-to-Total-Capital Ratio 2.1% 1.5% thereafter, roughly in-line with long-term GDP growth. We consider our terminal
WACC 7.2%
growth assumption reasonable since the company operates in a mature industry, and
the characteristic of low entry barrier as well as possible material consumer
Source: Bloomberg, Team estimates
preference change in bakery & café can alter competitive landscape and thus result in
value depletion. Our WACC comes in at 7.1%, which assumes a risk-free rate of 1.0%,
Table 7 Equity Value Calculation a market risk premium of 6.5% and an equity beta of 0.96x (calculated by regressing
NT$ Million
monthly excess return against TAIEX’s over a five-year time frame), with cost of debt
of 3.2%, a targeted debt-to-capital ratio of 2.1%, and a 25% effective tax rate.
Enterprise Value 29,182
Source: Euromonitor
35,000
2%
30,000
1%
25,000
20,000 0%
2017 2018E2019E2020E2021E2022E
Figure 27 Per Store Sales and YoY Growth Growth momentum in the US remains in our view, thanks to stretched reach into
by Region more Asian clusters. We forecast central kitchens in Northern California and Texas to
NT$ mn complete construction in 4Q18E-1Q18E and 2Q20E-3Q20E respectively, and a net
store addition of 15/15/12 in 2018-20E respectively (Figure 26). We estimate per
100
store sales in the US to falter 12%/11%/9% in 2018-20E and do not see the trend
80
reverse due to competition and cannibalization (Figure 27). Revenue growth in the
60
US will thus moderate to 10% in 2020E from 36% in 2017.
40
20 Topline growth in Taiwan lacks construction catalyst after refurbishment cycle ended
0 in 1Q18, and relatively low customer retention in a very competitive sector bodes ill
for the company. We forecast per store sales to drop 9%/9%/8% YoY in 2018-20E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2018E
2019E
2020E
Source: Company data, Team estimates High start-up cost and unfavorable capacity utilization will weigh on operating
leverage after GM undertakes central kitchen addition in the US, and thus depress
Figure 29 Capital Expenditure regional OPM before new production base ramps up. 3Q18 OPM came in at 11.5%.
NT$ mn With central kitchens in place in 4Q18E-1Q19E and 2Q20E-3Q20E, we think OPM of
2,500
2,099 these two periods will dip ~2% QoQ as a result. While broadening Asian customer
1,919 1,995
2,000 1,790 base through expansion bodes well for GM’s operating leverage in the near term, we
1,598
1,500 1,331 reason that comparable Asian chained bakery cafés undertaking rapid expansion will
dilute GM’s regional OPM and forecast OPM to be 11.0%/10.5%/8.0% in 2018-20E.
1,000
500 In Taiwan, the wide adoption of franchise model shifts headcount and operating cost
0 burden to franchisees, and hence GM enjoys a relatively more stable and higher OPM.
2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E We expect the trend in Taiwan to continue and forecast a 13% OPM onwards.
Source: Company data, Team estimates
Cash flow analysis
GM has a stable, sufficient cash flow to support its expansion thanks to its retail
business nature, and the cash conversion cycle is -12 days in 3Q18, which represents
a low liquidity risk. Expansion of self-owned stores and central kitchen construction
are the primary capital expenditure items for GM. Capex has increased since 2016 and
we think it will reach a peak in 2018E. Capex will edge lower onwards mainly due to
slower expansion in China, but buildout of another central kitchen in Texas will result
in capex similar to 2019E level (Figure 29).
rd
Figure 32 FX Effect on China's Revenue Higher-than-expected performance of 3 generation stores
Growth GM is currently preparing to launch its 3rd generation remodeling, testing the kiosk
15% 5.1 setups and optimizing ordering processes. If the 3rd generation stores can successfully
5.0 maximize asset utilization and attract more customers, it is highly possible the
10%
4.9
execution of 3rd generation remodeling will become the momentum of future revenue
5% growth.
4.8
0%
4.7
-5% Table 9 Sensitivity of China/US Tax Rate Table 10 Sensitivity of FX Rate against TWD
4.6
-10% US Tax (Federal + State) USD / TWD
4.5
-15% 4.4 NT$ 19% 24% 29% 34% 39% NT$ 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.5 33.5
China Corporate Tax
15% 211 208 205 203 200 4.1 194 193 193 192 192
CNY / TWD
20% 203 200 198 195 192 4.3 192 192 191 191 190
FX Effect Real Growth(QoQ)
25% 195 192 190 187 184 4.5 191 190 190 189 189
CNY/TWD(RHS)
Source: Team estimates 30% 187 184 182 179 177 4.7 189 188 188 187 187
35% 179 176 174 171 169 4.9 187 187 186 186 185
Source: Team estimates Source: Team estimates
Cash & equivalents 3,151 2,795 2,243 2,716 2,923 3,657 4,645 5,980
Short-term securities 2,448 3,868 3,599 3,599 3,599 3,599 3,599 3,599
Accounts receivables 297 358 331 343 340 337 335 332
Inventory 707 768 697 660 651 643 637 629
Prepaid expense 275 465 436 442 452 449 447 443
Other current assets 137 199 133 137 136 135 134 133
Total current assets 7,015 8,454 7,438 7,898 8,102 8,821 9,797 11,116
Net PP&E 5,058 5,593 6,657 7,209 7,629 7,461 7,100 6,376
Net intangibles 64 46 40 19 - - - -
Total long-term investments 418 698 1,243 1,262 1,282 1,301 1,320 1,340
Other long-term assets 882 1,018 897 897 897 897 897 897
Toal non-current assets 6,421 7,354 8,836 9,387 9,807 9,659 9,317 8,613
Total assets 13,436 15,808 16,275 17,285 17,909 18,480 19,114 19,728
Short-term debt 187 1,024 745 745 745 745 745 745
Accounts payable 1,230 1,273 1,185 1,219 1,203 1,188 1,178 1,163
Tax payable 182 176 138 183 130 124 124 123
Accrued expenses 1,262 1,560 1,663 1,665 1,750 1,749 1,744 1,731
Deferred revenue 1,048 1,360 1,415 1,437 1,393 1,350 1,312 1,268
Other current liabilities 27 48 48 50 31 31 37 30
Total current liabilities 3,935 5,441 5,195 5,298 5,251 5,188 5,138 5,060
Long-term debt 615 155 159 159 159 159 159 159
Other long-term liabilities 218 285 449 449 449 449 449 449
Total liabilities 4,768 5,881 5,802 5,906 5,859 5,795 5,746 5,668
Share capital 4,163 4,163 4,170 4,170 4,170 4,170 4,170 4,170
Retained earnings 4,523 5,920 6,656 7,570 8,247 8,888 9,577 10,275
Other common equity (95) (228) (381) (381) (381) (381) (381) (381)
Total common equity 8,590 9,855 10,445 11,359 12,036 12,676 13,366 14,064
Minority interest 77 72 28 19 14 8 3 (3)
Total shareholders' equity 8,668 9,927 10,472 11,379 12,050 12,685 13,369 14,061
Total liabilities & equity 13,436 15,808 16,275 17,285 17,909 18,480 19,114 19,728
Net Profit 1,742 2,138 1,721 1,689 1,437 1,287 1,269 1,269
Minorities add-back 41 17 (2) (8) (5) (6) (6) (6)
Depreciation 1,133 1,078 1,195 1,366 1,575 1,765 1,937 2,093
Amortization 36 32 22 21 19 - - -
Associate (income)/loss (19) (23) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)
Net (inc)/dec in working capital 339 294 227 118 (43) (49) (38) (61)
Other non-cash items 14 (57) 696 - - - - -
Cash flow from operations 3,285 3,479 3,839 3,166 2,963 2,978 3,142 3,276
Capital expenditure (1,331) (1,790) (2,099) (1,919) (1,995) (1,598) (1,575) (1,370)
ST securities (1,271) (1,627) (432) - - - - -
LT securities (1) (0) (652) - - - - -
Other items 50 (58) 94 - - - - -
Cash flow from investments (2,553) (3,474) (3,090) (1,919) (1,995) (1,598) (1,575) (1,370)
Cash dividends paid (353) (741) (978) (775) (760) (646) (579) (571)
Equity issuance/(repurchase) - - - - - - - -
Debt issuance/(paydown) (83) 365 (431) - - - - -
Other items (72) 52 107 - - - - -
Cash flow from financing (508) (324) (1,301) (775) (760) (646) (579) (571)
Total cash flows 225 (319) (552) 473 207 734 988 1,335
FX impact (129) (37) 0 - - - - -
Net change in cash 96 (357) (552) 473 207 734 988 1,335
Cash balance, BOP 3,055 3,151 2,795 2,243 2,716 2,923 3,657 4,645
Cash balance, EOP 3,151 2,795 2,243 2,716 2,923 3,657 4,645 5,980
15%
10%
5%
0%
2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Bargaining Power of
Competition in the Industry
Customers
Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Global demand and supply affect the price of raw ingredients
Historically, Gourmet Master has a steady gross margin, thanks to diversified local procurement strategy. Considering the jump in
gross profit margin to 58% in 3Q18, from 52% in 1Q10, and variance less than 2 ppts QoQ, we estimate 1 point in “Bargaining
Power of Suppliers.”
Paris Baguette:
Headquarter: Seongnam, South Korea
Paris Baguette is a bakery brand under the SPC Group, a large food chain in South Korea. It specializes in French bread, sandwiches,
cakes, coffee, and etc. Currently, it owns more than 6,000 chain stores in Korea, the US, France, China, Singapore and Vietnam.
Paris Baguette attempts to increase its US exposure by a store unit objective of 300+ in 2020E. Paris Baguette’s expansion strategy
would bring threat to Gourmet Master in light of the similarity of these two companies on price positioning and store type (bakery
café) in the US.
BreadTalk:
Headquarter: Singapore
Breadtalk is a brand under BreadTalk Group (BREAD SP), whose business segments include bakery, restaurants, and food atrium.
For its bakery business, it currently operates more than 950 stores in 17 countries, 48% of which are in Singapore. BreadTalk is a
direct competitor for Gourmet Master in China because a large proportion of its stores worldwide is located in China (32%) and
Hong Kong (11%), and they both exhibit high similarity in terms of site selection. Furthermore, when Gourmet Master accelerated
its stretch into China during 2012-14, BreadTalk’s simultaneous expansion indeed exerted crowding out effect on Gourmet Master.
Panera Bread:
Headquarter: Missouri, USA
Panera Bread is a chained bakery café/fast casual restaurants in the US and Canada. Product offerings include soups, salads, pasta,
sandwiches, specialty drinks, and baked goods. The company was listed on NASDAQ exchange (Before delisted: PNRA US) before
an equity buyout led by JAB Holding Company, a German private equity fund in consumer field, in 2017. Panera current has over
2,000 locations in the US. In May 2018, Panera Bread announced that it would now provide nationwide delivery service at all stores
in the US.
City Café:
Headquarter: Taipei, Taiwan
City Café is a coffee brand owned by President Chain Store Corporation (PCSC, 2912 TT), a convenience store operator, and sells
quality fresh coffee at a relatively lower price than others. PCSC now owns more than 5,000 stores in Taiwan, and its density is
much higher than convenience store players (c.50% in market share term by unit). On top of coffee, City Café also makes inroads
into tea drink market in order to offer customers with more beverage choices.
McCafé:
Headquarter: Illinois, USA
McCafé is a coffee-house-style food and beverage brand, owned by the fast food conglomerate McDonald's (MCD US), and runs
together with fast food restaurants. Currently, McDonald’s has over 35,000 stores worldwide, and it plans to add 2,000 more
restaurants in China over next five years. McCafé poses a direct threat to Gourmet Master, given similar competitive pricing strategy
and high store visibility.
Let’s Café:
Headquarter: Taipei, Taiwan
Similar to City Café, Let’s Café is also a chained coffee brand owned by the convenience store operator, FamilyMart (5903 TT),
which now runs at more than 3,000 locations in Taiwan. Business strategy of Let’s Café is akin to City Café as well, by providing
fresh quality coffee at competitive price and leveraging the high visibility of FamilyMart to lower customer acquisition cost. In
addition, Let’s Café taps into tea drink segment through cooperation with Twinings, a British tea marketer.
Starbucks:
Headquarter: Seattle, USA
Starbucks (SBUX US) is the biggest coffeehouse company in the world which has more than 28,000 stores in operation across 75
countries by the end of 2017. Its main products include coffee, tea and bakery goods. Among all the coffee brands mentioned,
Starbucks is the brand enjoying the highest price and brand equity.
Luckin Coffee:
Headquarters: Beijing, China
Luckin Coffee, founded in 2017 by Zhiya (Jenny) Qian, is representative of China’s “new retail” model, thanks to cheap delivery and
prevalence of online ordering in China. With more than 660 stores opened in 13 provinces within just a few months, it is now the
second largest coffee brand in China and a powerful threat to Starbucks and other coffee brands. Luckin completed a GIC-led Series
A funding worth of $200 million in June 2018 and joined “unicorn”, the start-up hall of fame, at $1 billion post-money valuation.
The company has been utilizing strong capital support to propel breakneck expansion via frequent online promotional activities.
In conclusion, Gourmet Master is now facing mounting competition pressure from other players: 1) Paris Baguette, Tous Les Jour
and Panera in the US; 2) McCafé, Luckin and BreadTalk in China; 3) City Café, Let’s Café, and Louisa Coffee in Taiwan.
Appendix 11: Asian Population Proportion of Select Cities Where 85C Café Operates
Cupertino Milpitas Cerritos Daly City Alhambra
(CA) (CA) (CA) (CA) (CA)
63.5% 61.8% 61.0% 58.4% 52.0%
Irvine Garden Grove Torrance Hacienda Heights San Jose
(CA) (CA) (CA) (CA) (CA)
43.3% 38.6% 38.2% 36.8% 34.5%
Cypress Chino Hills Buena Park Gardena Newark
(CA) (CA) (CA) (CA) (CA)
31.7% 30.7% 28.0% 27.8% 26.7%
Fullerton Berkeley Sacramento Plano National City
(CA) (CA) (CA) (TX) (CA)
24.0% 22.8% 21.2% 18.2% 17.8%
Glendale Bellaire Richardson Balboa Mesa Pasadena
(CA) (TX) (TX) (CA) (CA)
15.9% 15.4% 15.1% 14.7% 14.4%
Los Angeles Mira Mesa Korea Town West Covina Tukwila
(CA) (CA) (CA) (CA) (WA)
12.8% 44.3% 32.2% 25.6% 16.6%
Source: Company data, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: iResearch
Appendix 15: Demand for Instant Coffee and Fresh Coffee in China
Source: Euromonitor
Luckin Coffee most customer segmentation focuses on young demographics, overlapping what Gourmet Master will try to target
in future.
7.7% 1.9% 5.9%
22.6%
41.9%
20.0%
Source: Jiguang
Tier 1 Cities
城市 Province City Store count Average ticket size
上海 Shanghai Shanghai 141 ¥25
深圳 Guangdong Shenzhen 31 25
北京 Beijing Beijing 22 25
广州 Guangdong Guangzhou 12 25
Tier 2 Cities
城市 Province City Store count Average ticket size
福州 Fujian Fuzhou 47 ¥23
泉州 Fujian Quanzhou 34 17
厦门 Fujian Xiamen 20 23
常州 Jiangsu Changzhou 13 19
南通 Jiangsu Nantong 11 19
济南 Shandong Jinan 8 24
金华 Zhejiang Jinhua 6 20
惠州 Guangdong Huizhou 5 17
石家庄 Hebei Shijiazhuang 3 20
潍坊 Shandong Weifang 3 20
佛山 Guangdong Foshan 2 17
南昌 Jiangxi Nanchang 1 17
烟台 Shandong Yantai 2 20
绍兴 Hangzhou Shaoxing 2 20
嘉兴 Zhejiang Jiaxing 1 20
徐州 Jiangsu Xuzhou 1 17
Tier 3 Cities
城市 Province City Store Count Average ticket size
镇江 Jiangsu Zhenjiang 7 ¥20
扬州 Jiangsu Yangzhou 4 20
莆田 Fujian Putian 7 20
泰州 Jiangsu Taizhou 6 17
漳州 Fujian Zhangzhou 6 20
湖州 Zhejiang Huzhou 4 18
绵阳 Sichuan Mianyang 3 15
连云港 Jiangsu Lianyungang 3 20
滁州 Anhui Chuzhou 2 20
盐城 Jiangsu Yancheng 2 18
株洲 Hunan Zhuzhou 2 18
淮安 Jiangsu Huai'an 1 20
鞍山 Liaoning Anshan 1 17
宁德 Fujian Ningde 1 17
德阳 Sichuan Deyang 1 20
Selling & Marketing Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of S&M as a Percentage of
Revenue.
General & Administrative Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of G&A as a Percentage of
Revenue.
Research & Development Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of R&D as a Percentage of
Revenue.
Interest Income Interest Income Arising from Forecasted Cash Balance. Interest Rate Based on 3Q18 Level of 0.7%.
Interest Expense Interest Income Arising from Forecasted Debt Balance. Interest Rate Based on 3Q18 Level of 0.7%.
Associate Income/(Loss) Straight-line Associate Income (Hotpot & Yakiniku) of the Past 4 Quarters Based on Seasonality.
Taxes Forecasted Using Team Estimated Effective Tax Rate. Factored in Tax Policy Changes in China,
Taiwan, and the US.
Shares Outstanding No Share Issuance, Share Repurchase, or Stock-Based Compensation in Forecast Periods.
Accounts receivable Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Days Sales Outstanding.
Inventory Increased with COGS Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Days of Inventory.
Prepaid expense Increased with (SG&A + COGS) Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Prepaid Expense as a
Percentage of (SG&A Expense+ COGS).
Other current assets Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Other Current Assets as a
Percentage of Revenue.
Total long-term investments Straight-line Reported Balance as of 3Q18. No Additional Investment.
Capital expenditures Forecasted Using Team Estimated Capex Per Store to Reflect Central Kitchen Capex Allocable to
Each, Maintenance and Addition.
Depreciation Forecasted Using Team Estimated Percentage of Gross PP&E.
Short-term debt Expected the Paydown to be the Same as Issuance Each Year to Maintain Short-term Debt Balance
Equal to that of 3Q18.
Accounts payable Increased with COGS Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Days Payable Outstanding.
Tax payable Forecasted Using Team Estimated Percentage of Income Tax Expense.
Accrued expenses Increased with SG&A Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Accrued Expenses as a
Percentage of SG&A Expense.
Deferred revenue Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Deferred Revenue as a
Percentage of Revenue.
Other current liabilities Increased with Revenue Growth. Embedded with Team Estimation of Other Current Liabilities as
a Percentage of Revenue.
Long-term debt Expected the Paydown to be the Same as Issuance Each Year to Maintain Long-term Debt Balance
Equal to that of 3Q18.
Other non-current liabilities Straight-line Reported Balance as of 3Q18.
Share capital No Share Issuance, Share Repurchase, or Stock-Based Compensation in Forecast Period.
Glossary
Same-store sales growth (SSSG) is to measure the growth of same-store sales for the
current period to the same period in the past.
SSSG
(Same-store sales is a financial statistical indicator that companies in the retail industry use
to evaluate the total dollar amount of sales in the company's stores that have been
operating for a year or more. )
Per-store daily (PSD) is one of the key indicators to evaluate performance efficiency based
PSD
on average daily sales per store.
Source: Wikipedia
Source: CNNIC
Appendix 24: Average Selling Price (ASP) of Beverage and Baked Goods in the US, 2017
US$
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Starbucks Duckin Panerna Paris GM
Brands Baguette