Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Relaciones Internacionales

Licenciatura en Ciencias Políticas y Administración Pública

Construction of Political Scenes

“Evidence 3”

August-January 2020/2021

Fanny Alfano Perales

ID: 173576

Group: bp9

Dr. Víctor Néstor Aguirre Sotelo

Construction of scenes in Nuevo León 2021: Candidate Clara Luz Flores

The toolbox of strategic futurology is a guide for creating strategies in order to achieve
an objective; this may serve in daily life issues or also in professional situations where is
expected to reach certain goals, for example, at sociopolitical context.

Below is shown the stages of strategic futurology briefly applied to the case of the state
of Nuevo León, Mexico and the candidate Clara Luz Flores for governor.

1- Start and simulate the whole process of strategic foresight.

In Nuevo León, elections are held for the figure of governor every 6 years. Having had a
background in political history for a period determined by bipartisan system and then a
radical transition to an independent candidate, there are many factors to take into account
for the next elections.

The political marketing used in the campaign is going to be a determinant of what can
happen with the executive power of the state in 2021. Right now, political actors who
aspire to be candidates are emerging; such is the case of Clara Luz Flores Carralez, current
major of a municipality of the state, has been in the public service for various years, and
has acquired popularity due her actions and proposals, even at international level, being a
possible candidate for gubernator in 2021.

Right now, competitiveness between opponents is high; there are many political actors
seeking to occupy that position. If Clara Luz will win or lose the required votes, will be a
decision based on the political marketing strategies she decides to follow.

2- Propose questions and identify the key variables.

The principal questions is how can Clara Luz Flores win the elections? Which
accompanies itself by other questions, such as: is it a better strategy to join a party or go the
independent route? What is the political landscape in the state? Who will be the other
candidates?

They key variables are support from the party, actions carried out by the candidate in the
lapse of time left, candidate positioning, rest of the candidates, attitudes and behavior of
electorate and political issues.
 3- Analyze the game of actors.

As for the game of actors involved, not only the political forces, but also the parapolitics
that have a high level of influence on the results must be taken into account, that in Nuevo
León a persistent force is the private sector. Added to this, the covid-19 pandemic has
generated serious consequences at the social, educational and economic level, so the
population can change its political perspective; in other words, the priorities of society will
be restructured and the positions taken by the candidates in this regard will affect the final
decision.

Probably the political actors at stake will be the PRI, PAN, Movimiento Ciudadano and
Morena, being these last two the strongest ones.

4- Mark the field of possible and reduce uncertainty.

It is expected Clara Luz Flores to be candidate for governor being this moment the most
suitable for her career, considering that it is booming after her departure from the PRI and
the echo of her public policies. Two possible routes are foreseen: the independent one and
with the support of a party, which would be Morena.

Morena has a wide network of followers and social acceptance, thus representing a
viable platform. The party, however, takes the candidate’s decision, it is not something easy
to change, but the other possible candidate of Morena has announced that she is not
interested in participating in these elections, leaving Clara Luz with a greater probability of
be selected.

5- Establish a complete diagnosis of the company versus its environment.

Clara Luz Flores Carralez has served as a public servant on several occasions, which
positions her as a candidate with a lot of experience, in addition to her interest and
participation in human and social development issues. Her handling of social networks has
helped her to be known in the country but she faces candidates who also stand out for their
popularity, so she would have to concentrate on increasing it and bringing out other
qualities.

6- Identify and evaluate choices and strategic options.

-Follow the strengthening of the use of social networks so as not to lose the support she
currently has.

-Identify the constituencies that support her, in order to maintain and use as promotion.

-Work on the political image, whether of the perception of the party or of herself, if she goes the
independent way.

-Propose lines of action to solve the emerging problems of society.

Reference:

Godet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2000). La caja de herramientas de la
prospectiva estratégica. Laboratoire d'Investigation Prospective et Stratégique.