Assignment Cover Sheet

Student name: Ethan Green

Student number: 18498514

Unit name and number: 102091

Tutorial Group: Mathematics Extension

Tutorial Day and Time: Tuesday 10AM

Unit Coordinator: Erika Smith

Title of assignment: Professional Task: Unit of Work

Length: 17 pages + cover. Discussion 1077 Words.

Date due: 13/04/2021

Date submitted: 13/04/2021

Campus enrolment: Kingswood

Topic: Statistical Analysis

Outcomes
A student:
› uses concepts and techniques from probability to present and interpret data and solve problems
in a variety of contexts, including the use of probability distributions MA11-7
› uses appropriate technology to investigate, organise, model and interpret information in a range
of contexts MA11-8
› provides reasoning to support conclusions which are appropriate to the context MA11-9

Topic Focus
The topic Statistical Analysis involves the exploration, display, analysis and interpretation of data to
identify and communicate key information.

A knowledge of statistical analysis enables careful interpretation of situations and an awareness of

the contributing factors when presented with information by third parties, including its possible
misrepresentation.

The study of statistical analysis is important in developing students' ability to recognise, describe and
apply statistical techniques in order to analyse current situations or to predict future outcomes. It also
develops an awareness of how conclusions drawn from data can be used to inform decisions made
by groups such as scientific investigators, business people and policy-makers.

Subtopics
MA-S1 Probability and Discrete Probability Distributions
Statistical Analysis

MA-S1 Probability and Discrete Probability Distributions

Outcomes
A student:
› uses concepts and techniques from probability to present and interpret data and solve problems
in a variety of contexts, including the use of probability distributions MA11-7
› uses appropriate technology to investigate, organise, model and interpret information in a range
of contexts MA11-8
› provides reasoning to support conclusions which are appropriate to the context MA11-9

Subtopic Focus
The principal focus of this subtopic is to introduce the concepts of conditional probability and
independence and develop an understanding of discrete random variables and their uses in modelling
random processes involving chance.

Students develop their skills related to probability, its language and visual representations, and use
these skills to solve practical problems. They develop an understanding of probability distributions and
associated statistical analysis methods and their use in modelling binomial events. These concepts
play an important role in later studies of statistics, particularly in beginning to understand the concept
of statistical significance.

Within this subtopic, schools have the opportunity to identify areas of Stage 5 content which may
need to be reviewed to meet the needs of students.

Content
S1.1: Probability and Venn diagrams
Students:
1. understand and use the concepts and language associated with theoretical probability,
relative frequency and the probability scale
2. solve problems involving simulations or trials of experiments in a variety of contexts AAM
a. identify factors that could complicate the simulation of real-world events (ACMEM153)
b. use relative frequencies obtained from data as point estimates of probabilities
(ACMMM055)
3. use arrays and tree diagrams to determine the outcomes and probabilities for multi-stage
experiments (ACMEM156) AAM
4. use Venn diagrams, set language and notation for events, including 𝐴̅ (or 𝐴′ or 𝐴𝑐 ) for the
complement of an event 𝐴, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 for ‘𝐴 and 𝐵’, the intersection of events 𝐴 and 𝐵, and 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵
for ‘𝐴 or 𝐵’, the union of events 𝐴 and 𝐵, and recognise mutually exclusive events
(ACMMM050) AAM
a. use everyday occurrences to illustrate set descriptions and representations of events
and set operations (ACMMM051)
5. establish and use the rules: 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
(ACMMM054) AAM
6. understand the notion of conditional probability and recognise and use language that
indicates conditionality (ACMMM056)
 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
7. use the notation 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) and the formula 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0 for conditional probability
𝑃(𝐵)
(ACMMM057) AAM
8. understand the notion of independence of an event 𝐴 from an event 𝐵, as defined by
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) (ACMMM058)
9. use the multiplication law 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) for independent events 𝐴 and 𝐵 and
recognise the symmetry of independence in simple probability situations (ACMMM059)

S1.2: Discrete probability distributions

1. define and categorise random variables
a. know that a random variable describes some aspect in a population from which
samples can be drawn
b. know the difference between a discrete random variable and a continuous random
variable
2. use discrete random variables and associated probabilities to solve practical problems
(ACMMM142) AAM
a. use relative frequencies obtained from data to obtain point estimates of probabilities
associated with a discrete random variable (ACMMM137)
b. recognise uniform discrete random variables and use them to model random
phenomena with equally likely outcomes (ACMMM138)
c. examine simple examples of non-uniform discrete random variables, and recognise
that for any random variable, 𝑋, the sum of the probabilities is 1 (ACMMM139)
d. examine simple examples of non-uniform discrete random variables, and recognise
that for any random variable, 𝑋, the sum of the probabilities is 1 (ACMMM139)
e. recognise the mean or expected value, 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇, of a discrete random variable 𝑋 as
a measure of centre, and evaluate it in simple cases (ACMMM140)
f. recognise the variance, Var(𝑋), and standard deviation (𝜎) of a discrete random
variable as measures of spread, and evaluate them in simple cases (ACMMM141)
g. use Var(𝑋) = 𝐸((𝑋 − 𝜇)2 ) = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − 𝜇 2 for a random variable and Var(𝑥) = 𝜎 2 for a
dataset
3. understand that a sample mean, 𝑥̅ , is an estimate of the associated population mean 𝜇, and
that the sample standard deviation, 𝑠, is an estimate of the associated population standard
deviation, 𝜎, and that these estimates get better as the sample size increases and when we
have independent observations
Unit Outline
Week Syllabus Reference Lesson Activities Comments
Outcomes/Description
1 S1.1, 1.2 S1.1, 1, 2, 3, 5 Use five questions approach to revise probability, New content may be
S1.2, 2a including notation and metalanguage. revised throughout unit
MA11-7 using five questions
MA11-9 Practical to estimate, model and determine approach as well.
probability of hard to predict outcomes (e.g. bottle
landing upright).

Students verify probability claims. E.g. That the

specific order of cards in a shuffled deck has never
been produced before (reasoning regarding the size
of 52!).

Students draw a curve over an image of a Galton

board to begin seeing alternate visualisations of
probability (distribution graphs).
2 S1.1, 1.2 S1.2, 2b Students compare uniform and non-uniform
S1.1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 distributions of random variables. Students infer
MA11-7 information from graphs. E.g. Determine whether
MA11-9 uniform, describe skew and compare relative
probabilities.

Use five questions approach to revise Venn

diagrams and learn set notation.

Students survey each other on topics of their Students may use

choosing and create Venn diagrams of the results computer software. E.g.
and questions to test each other on. InteractiVenn, DeepVenn.
 Students are given probability scenarios and must E.g. Recognise when to
match them with corresponding worked solutions that use formula 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
utilise only the syllabus formulas and rules. 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
, 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0.
𝑃(𝐵)

3 S1.1 S1.1, 1, 2a, 2b, 3, 6 Monty Hall based card game. Students take time to Students grouped to solve
MA11-7 reason their position before completing a simulation. via trials, use of rules
MA11-8 Students use those results and are tasked with (P(A’)=1-P(A)) or tree
MA11-9 creating the theory to support it. diagrams.

Students examine heat maps as another form of

representing frequency or probability and create their Use computer software.
own based on a class investigation.
4 S1.2 S1.2, 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d Students perform double dice rolls to produce a Students should reason
MA11-7 Gaussian distribution. Students recognise the why 7 is the expected
MA11-9 expected value (7) is a measure of centre. Relative centre.
frequency and theoretical probabilities are used to
determine sum of random variable probabilities is 1.

Use race position and race time to distinguish

between discrete and continuous variables.

Discuss how much can be gathered from the mean Look at multiple data sets
before computing standard deviation and variance with similar means but
from a data set. Discuss spread of data and compare different variance.
to other such as box and whisker plots.

For next week, students are tasked with gathering

data from 10 students outside of class on which year
level they are in. Students also record location of
data collection.
5 S1.1, 1.2 S1.2, 2d, 2e, 2f, 3 Student samples of data are collated. Students first Students use Excel or
S1.1, 2a, 2b analyse their own data, then the whole class and similar software to collate
MA11-7 discuss observed changes as the sample size and analyse data.
MA11-8 becomes larger.
MA11-9
Relate increasing sample size to increasing
simulations/number of trials for more accurate
estimates.
 Venn Diagram Investigation

In this task, you will be creating a Venn diagram based on information you collect from each of your
classmates. Choose 3 topics to investigate (e.g. Level of English studied, favourite music genre, owns
a pet). Consider the possible answers for your topic and check with the teacher before investigating.

Investigation Topic 1: ________________________________________________________________

Investigation Topic 2: ________________________________________________________________

Investigation Topic 3: ________________________________________________________________

Once your topics have been approved, fill out the table below.

Name Topic 1 Answer Topic 2 Answer Topic 3 Answer

Now that you have some data, use the space below to represent it visually as a Venn diagram.

Now, use your Venn diagram to create three different questions to test another person on their
ability to draw information on probability from your diagram. Make sure to do the questions
yourself first as you can use your table data to check your own answer.

Question 1: ________________________________________________________________________

Question 2: ________________________________________________________________________

Question 3: ________________________________________________________________________
Scaffold: Draw 1 circle for each different answer and fill them with the names of the students who
gave the answer. Write the frequency of that answer in the centre.

Scaffold: Use technology to organise data and produce a Venn diagram.

Modified Monty Hall Problem (adapted from Selvin (1975))

Instruction presentation. Best used with interactive whiteboard so students may attach names to
table at end.

Scaffolding: Have students repeat with extra cards.

Provide starting points for worded discussion e.g. P(Contestant initially picks Ace)
Provide tree diagrams with varying levels of information removed.
Name: _____________________________ Date: ____________________________
The Monty Hall Problem
Initial hypothesis: The optimal choice (is STAYING/is SWITCHING/DOESN’T MATTER) because
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
Group: SIMULATION/WORDED EXPLANATION/PROABILITY TREE
Use the space below to show your development of working out which choice is optimal or if it doesn’t
matter.
Students then explain their method of solving to other groups. Additional exit points may include
adapting for similar problems or solving the probability for additional cards and prizes.

Investigation of Discrete Random Variables

Students are to survey students throughout the school outside of lessons, asking what year
level they are in. By the first Mathematics lesson of next week, each student should have
collected data from a minimum of 10 students. In addition to recording the year level,
record the location where the person was surveyed. Email data as an excel file to your
teacher. Tabled data may be handed in on paper if internet issues are experienced.

To complete with individual data:

1. Graph the frequency of your data to see the distribution of year levels.
2. Use the relative frequencies to determine the probability that a randomly selected student
will be in each year level.
3. Determine the expected (mean) year level and variance.
4. Discuss whether this data is an accurate representation of the school. (HINT: Consider
sample bias and sample size. HINT: Consider why location is recorded).
To complete with collated data:

1. Graph the frequency of all data using a spreadsheet to see the distribution of year levels.
How does it compare to smaller sets of data?
2. Determine the relative probability, expected value and variance of the collated data. How
does it compare to smaller sets of data?
3. Compare and contrast the collated and uncollated data sets as representations of the
school.
4. After being provided the whole school data, describe the accuracy of the class results (HINT:
Compare the distribution, probabilities, expected value and variance).
5. What accounts for these differences and what issues may have arisen from the method of
collating data?
6. Class Discussion: What other mathematical problems does this remind you of?
Example spreadsheet that a student may produce.

Critical Discussion

The showcase items were developed so that students understand underlying mathematical
principles. Student diversity was supported by working in different entry and exit points and
targeting different domains of inquiry and engagement. In designing the unit, the syllabus’ emphasis
on modelling to structure perceptions (NESA, 2017) was core to nurturing student numeracy.

Connecting mathematical concepts to real-life situations is essential for relational understanding

(Skemp, 1976, 1993). Probability and statistics offer numerous opportunities to exercise this but
understanding requires dialogue to translate and interpret solutions (Gill, 2011). The use of
contextualised investigations help solidify connections between real-life and theory (Goos et al.,
2007, pp. 46–73). Furthermore, application based problems either implicitly or explicitly involve
some form of modelling (Artigue & Blomhøj, 2013) which represent the upper echelon of practical
based problems (Goos et al., 2007). Hence, some form of modelling manifested in each of the
showcase items.

The Venn diagram activity challenges students to collect, represent and communicate their data.
The role of the students in this activity is to utilise a mathematical concept to build their own
knowledge with the teacher acting to facilitate this process (Kadir et al., 2016). Further utilisation of
Skemp’s theories combine the use of SOLO taxonomy (Biggs & Collis, 2014) which identifies the
learning journey from following procedure up to the highest levels of understanding where students
theorise and test conjectures. This is present in the Monty Hall based card game where students
analyse the situation, combine strategies and develops modelling ability by recognising there are
multiple solution paths which are supported through class discussion (Gill, 2011). Modelling to
uncover probability additionally develops connected levels of understanding in the SOLO taxonomy
by providing a similar situation in the discrete random variable activity, where representing the
population mean mirrors strategies of determining practical probability. With these activities
providing varying levels of student centredness, the teacher’s role becomes to guide both the
problem solving and make explicit the relevant links between concepts (Goos et al., 2007).
Motivating students to verbalise these connections themselves, however, can elevate understanding
further (Goos et al., 2007) and opportunities for this are provided in the activities.

Differentiation is supported through various pre-planned means. The card-based Monty Hall
problem’s use of physical objects helps make learning to switch easier (De Neys & Verschueren,
2006; Franco-Watkins et al., 2003). A second modification is the scaffolded use of additional cards
which helps make differences in probability more salient (Saenen et al., 2014). The key difficulty in
this task is replacing student intuition with understanding. Entry points based on ability and initial
reasoning are therefore utilised, given cognitive load is high and reliance on intuition exists across
cultures (Franco-Watkins et al., 2003; Saenen et al., 2014). The modifications and grouping are
intended to help develop understanding at appropriate individualised levels. Additionally, the task is
planned towards the end of the first syllabus subtopic, to allow for ample formative and diagnostic
assessment of students. Multiple exit points are also possible, ranging from just learning to switch to
adaptive reasoning for other modified variations of the game. These exit points also serve as another
means of formative assessment.

Similar considerations were made for the other activities. Multiple entry and exit points serve as
enabling and extending prompts based on student ability to reason throughout the stages of
modelling. These not only serve to differentiate but also assist with assessing student ability
(Cheeseman et al., 2017). The open-ended nature of the Venn diagram activity allows students to
make their task as easy or difficult as they want, depending on their pre-planning and prior
consideration of their investigation topics. Although students could make their investigation too
difficult to represent in a Venn diagram based on their ability level, the manner in which students
adapt to their inquiry is an essential skill in performing investigations (Kadir et al., 2016; Zion &
Mendelovici, 2012). It is through dealing with self-imposed challenge that students develop critical
thinking and learn to adapt for more complex problems (Zion & Mendelovici, 2012). These
investigation considerations are also present by having students think about data collection for the
year group analysis. The focus there is allowing the modelling process to subject experience to
rationality (Kadir et al., 2016) and involve students in a scientific process of being critical and
reflective of inquiry methods (Zion & Mendelovici, 2012). Any gaps in reasoning become supported
through mediated class discussion (Giardini, 2016).
 Supporting engagement was a final consideration in each of the activities. Attard’s (2012)
framework was of use here. Cognitive engagement is achieved by providing sufficient challenge. The
difficulty in the Monty Hall card game (Franco-Watkins et al., 2003) and challenge to determine
optimal inquiry topics and survey strategies (Attard, 2012) were opportunities for this to develop.
Layered class discussion which tasks students to explain concepts themselves also enable cognitive
engagement to manifest (Giardini, 2016). The mean school year investigation also connects a
meaningful context with inquiry which can contribute to cognitive enjoyment as new statistical
understandings develop (Goos et al., 2007). Subsequently, operative engagement stems from active
participation (Attard, 2012) which is required of all students in each activity. Students are
responsible for gathering data, performing simulations and interpreting information for the whole
class. This involvement and sharing of findings enable discussions to be meaningful learning
experiences (Goos et al., 2007).

Affective engagement, arguably the hardest to achieve, is targeted in each activity. The school acts
as a meaningful context to relate concepts to real-life which can enhance appreciation of activities
(Giardini, 2016). The use of a game-based activity can also foster enjoyment which then has the
possibility to provide affective engagement through sustained critical discussion of the mathematical
concepts (Attard, 2012). Opportunities to interact with other students, both in and outside the
classroom also target this strand of engagement by enabling students to connect with each other in
shared learning experiences, heightening personal ownership of the conceptual understanding
(Attard, 2012; Giardini, 2016). Similarly, student choice helps nurture an appreciation of the
modelling activities, which can enable students to see value in their numeracy development.

The discussed activities form an essential part of the unit. They each provide multiple entry and exit
points for all students to perform. The varying levels allow for formative assessment of student
understanding. Engagement becomes possible through challenge, meaningful interactions within the
school and active participation in inquiry. The varied types of modelling also help develop schemas
and relational understanding at various stages of the unit and student development.
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Appendix

Original Monty Hall Problem as shown in Selvin (1975).