Risk of Tsunamis in The Bay of Bengal Re Tls Comments

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Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Earth-Science Reviews
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/earscirev

Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal
region—A synthesis and review
Edris Alam a, b,⁎, Dale Dominey-Howes a, Catherine Chagué-Goff a, c, James Goff a
a
Australia–Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazard Research Laboratory, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales,
Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
b
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Chittagong, Chittagong-4331, Bangladesh
c
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW 2232, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Sig-
Received 20 April 2011 nificantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable
Accepted 11 May 2012 of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and
Available online 28 May 2012
palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis.
After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis,
Keywords:
Tsunamis
51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the pur-
Records ported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the
Indian Ocean reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribu-
Bay of Bengal tion of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most like-
Hazard ly reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000–2000BC.
Bangladesh Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the north-
ern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data con-
tained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to
AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in
any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to
fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further ‘deep’ archival research coupled with regional pal-
aeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.
© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
2. Previous tsunami catalogues and studies in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
2.1. Catalogues and lists of Indian Ocean tsunamis published before the 2004 IOT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
2.2. Catalogues and lists of Indian Ocean tsunamis published after the 2004 IOT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
3. Methods and approach—development of the new database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
4. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
5. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
5.1. Validity assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
5.2. Spatial and temporal distribution of events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
5.3. Tsunamis in the northern Bay of Bengal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
5.4. Cross-checking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
5.4.1. Incorrect and incomplete citations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
5.4.2. Difference in dating for the same event. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
5.4.3. Contradictory descriptions: earthquake, tsunami and cyclone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
5.4.4. Exaggeration of casualty numbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
5.4.5. Differences in magnitude of earthquakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

⁎ Corresponding author at: Australia–Pacific Tsunami Research Centre and Natural Hazard Research Laboratory, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University
of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. Tel.: +61 2 9385 8231; fax: +61 2 9385 1558.
E-mail addresses: edris.alam@student.unsw.edu.au (E. Alam), dale.dh@unsw.edu.au (D. Dominey-Howes), c.chague-goff@unsw.edu.au (C. Chagué-Goff), j.goff@unsw.edu.au
(J. Goff).

0012-8252/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.05.002
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176 E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193

6. Palaeotsunamis in the Bay of Bengal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190


7. Questions arising and recommendations for further work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
8. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

1. Introduction triggers of tsunamis such as volcanic eruptions that are known to have
affected the Indian Ocean region (e.g., Krakatau in AD1883) (Simkin
The Bay of Bengal and adjacent coasts (Fig. 1) are at risk from multiple and Fiske, 1983; van den Bergh et al., 2003). As such, the sole reliance
hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, upon PTHAs for tsunami hazard quantification is unwise.
storms, floods and tsunamis. Ostensibly, the Indian Ocean was not Tsunami hazard assessment may be significantly enhanced by
recognised as having a particularly high tsunami hazard compared to reviewing available records of past events—written and geological
other regions of the world such as the Pacific Ocean (Berninghausen, (Dominey-Howes, 2002; Satake and Atwater, 2007; Heidarzadeh et
1966; Murty and Rafiq, 1991; Murty and Bapat, 1999; Rastogi, 2007). al., 2008; Goff et al., 2010). To this end, several authors have noted the
This view changed abruptly on the 26 December 2004 when a submarine dearth of published accounts, records or datasets of tsunamis affecting
earthquake (Mw 9.2) offshore of NW Sumatra triggered the most cata- the Bay of Bengal (Murty and Rafiq, 1991; Dominey-Howes et al.,
strophic tsunami the modern world has known (Liu et al., 2005; 2007; Jankaew et al., 2008). This is problematic since it is highly likely
Cummins, 2007). It was not the first event of this magnitude, nor will it that some historical tsunamis have not been reported for a variety of
be the last (Jankaew et al., 2008; Monecke et al., 2008; Mörner et al., reasons (Berninghausen, 1966). The absence of records of tsunamis
2008). should therefore not be used to infer that no events occurred. The ab-
Whilst earthquakes in the region are frequent, large tsunamis ap- sence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
pear to be moderately rare—with recurrence intervals of a few hundred Significantly, the issue of tsunami hazard in the Bay of Bengal be-
years or so (Berninghausen, 1966; Sukhtankar et al., 1993; Murty and came more complex when Cummins (2007) suggested that an earth-
Bapat, 1999; Cummins, 2007; Dominey-Howes et al., 2007; Gupta and quake generated within the Arakan Subduction Zone (ASZ) (Fig. 1) in
Gahalaut, 2009). To mitigate any future tsunami risk to vulnerable the northern Bay of Bengal in AD1762, may have triggered a large tsu-
coastal populations, it is necessary to quantify the hazard (IFRC, 2002; nami similar to the 2004 IOT. Cummins (2007) cited the results of
UNDP, 2004; DfID, 2005; UNISDR, 2005; Dall'Osso and Dominey- geophysical analysis to constrain the structure of the subduction
Howes, 2010). A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is zone in which the earthquake probably occurred and used that data
one approach (Lin and Tung, 1982; Ward, 2002; Geist, 2005; Geist to ‘model’ a possible tsunami (Fig. 2). Accounts published shortly
and Parsons, 2006; Power et al., 2007) but PTHAs are limited by the after the event by Gulston (1763), Hirst (1763) and Verelst (1763)
availability of geological data and seismic sources for known or inferred described liquefaction, subsidence and uplift, infrastructure damage
events for the ‘historical’ period (Geist and Parsons, 2006). Further, all and human casualties associated with the AD1762 event in the region
PTHAs only use seismic sources and as such, ‘miss’ important additional of Chittagong, Bangladesh. The suggestion by Cummins (2007) of

Fig. 1. Map of the Indian Ocean including the Bay of Bengal and surrounding countries. The red, green, and yellow solid lines, and the blue dashed line indicate convergent, transform,
divergent and diffuse plate boundaries respectively. The purple line shows the location of the inferred tsunamigenic zones of the Indus Delta and the Kutch-Saurashtra (Jaiswal et al.,
2008). Rates of plate motion with reference to the Indian Plate are given in mm/yr and are adapted from Gahalaut and Gahalaut (2007). SF = Sagaing Fault, ASZ = Arakan Subduction
Zone, AT = Andaman Trench, SSZ = Sunda Subduction Zone, SJT = Sunda Java Trench, MSZ = Makran Subduction Zone, ASRTFS = Andaman Sea Ridge Transform Fault System, SP =
Sunda Plate, GSF = Great Sumatra Fault. The red squares show the locations of major volcanic eruptions/centres. The red stars show the locations of major historical earthquakes. (For
interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193 177

Fig. 2. Modelled maximum offshore heights of tsunami based on the AD1762 earthquake. The rectangle along the eastern coast of the northern Bay of Bengal indicates a fault model
for the AD1762 Arakan Subduction Zone earthquake with a length of 700 km, a width of 125 km and slip of 10 m. The star indicates the epicentre of the AD1762 earthquake.
Source: Modified from Cummins (2007).

such an event is significant for two reasons. First, so called ‘mega- 2010)). For the Indian Ocean, tsunami catalogues (and lists) may be
tsunami’ sources in this region lie far to the north of those previously subdivided into two groups: those published before and those pub-
recognised and, as such, demand independent rigorous testing and lished after the 2004 IOT (see Sections 2.1 and 2.2 respectively).
validation. Second, if repeated, such an event would threaten the Most of those published before the 2004 IOT were based on archival
lives of tens of millions of people living in adjacent low-lying coastal records and focused primarily on earthquakes but made reference
areas (Gupta and Gahalaut, 2009). to coincidental ‘tsunamis’, ‘sea waves’, ‘seismic sea waves’ and ‘tidal
Here we collate, document and analyse historical and geological surges’ occurring in association with an earthquake. Those published
accounts of tsunamis and palaeotsunamis in order to establish a de- after the 2004 IOT have attempted to be more comprehensive.
tailed database of independently validated events in the northeast In-
dian Ocean (Latitude 15° S to 29° N and Longitude 70°E to 106° E)
with a particular reference to those reported as affecting the Bay of 2.1. Catalogues and lists of Indian Ocean tsunamis published before the
Bengal. For each reported event in this new database, a validity 2004 IOT
score (i.e., definite tsunami = 5, probable tsunami = 4, etc.) is provid-
ed, based upon the nature of the evidence given in the original source A detailed review of the available published material shows that
documents. A number of issues and difficulties were encountered in 12 catalogues and lists of Indian Ocean tsunamis were published
working with the compilation of tsunami data from historical source prior to 2004 (Table 1). In most cases, these pre-2004 IOT studies
documents. These are identified and discussed. In light of our analysis, failed to provide detailed information on the parameters of the tsuna-
a series of research questions arises and future priorities are outlined. mi they referred to, broadly offered only a comment about the date of
We begin by providing a review of previously published cata- occurrence and listed a single source record for each event. In most
logues and records of tsunamis in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining re- cases, these catalogues cited references published in earlier cata-
gions. This is followed by a description of how we constructed our logues/lists as their sources of evidence. As such, a circular system
database and a presentation of the results. of scaffolded referencing evolved between successive publications—
this system needs careful cross checking.
2. Previous tsunami catalogues and studies in the Indian Ocean The oldest catalogue of regional tsunamis is by Oldham (1882),
and Bay of Bengal region whilst Hamzah et al. (2000) contain the greatest number of events.
Different catalogues cover different time periods, have different re-
Regional tsunami catalogues have been produced for many areas gional focuses and provide variable levels of detail for each event.
of the world (e.g., Europe (Soloviev et al., 2000); the Caribbean This variation makes it difficult to undertake direct comparisons. In-
(O'Loughlin and Lander, 2003); Australia (Dominey-Howes, 2007); terestingly, as far as we can determine, prior to the 2004 IOT event,
New Zealand (Goff et al., 2010); the Indian Ocean (Murty and Rafiq, no published papers existed that described palaeotsunami deposits
1991; Murty and Bapat, 1999) and the South China Sea (Lau et al., in the Indian Ocean.
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178 E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193

Table 1
Summary of catalogues and lists of tsunamis affecting the Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) published before, and after, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (2004 IOT).

Previous catalogue/list # of events Oldest event Most recent Comments


(arranged in date order) reported reported event listed

Catalogues published before the 2004 IOT


Oldham (1882) 13 AD893 AD1869 Mostly describes earthquakes
Milne (1911) 5 AD7 AD1899 Mainly an earthquake database
Heck (1947) 30 AD 416 AD1908 Catalogue of seismic sea waves
Berninghausen (1966) 27 AD1750 AD1945 Indian Ocean tsunami catalogue
Berninghausen (1969) 45 AD416 AD1965 Indian Ocean tsunami catalogue (includes partly China and the Philippines)
Soloviev and Go (1974) 13 AD416 AD1930 Tsunamis on the western shores of the Pacific Ocean
Nutalaya et al. (1985) 6 AD1762 AD1930 Mainly an earthquake database
Soetardjo et al. (1985) 6 AD1833 AD1967 Mainly an earthquake database
Newcomb and McCann (1987) 14 AD1681 AD1921 Mainly describes seismic history and tsunamis from the Sunda Arc
Murty and Rafiq (1991) 23 AD1737 AD1974 List of tsunamis in the Bay of Bengal
Murty and Bapat (1999) 6 326BC AD1945 Recorded some tsunamis on the coastlines of India
Hamzah et al. (2000) 105 AD1600 AD1999 Documented tsunamis in the whole Indonesian Archipelago

Catalogues published after the 2004 IOT


Kumar and Achyuthan (2006) 81 2000BC AD2004 A record of palaeotsunamis in the Indian Ocean
Manimaran and Chacko (2006) 51 1500BC AD2005 Historical tsunamis in the Indian Ocean
Rastogi and Jaiswal (2006) 90 326BC AD2005 A catalogue of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean
Rastogi (2007) 90 326BC AD2005 Account of earthquakes and tsunamis in the Indian Ocean
Dominey-Howes et al. (2007) 22 326BC AD1945 Records of teletsunamis in the Indian Ocean
Dahanayake and Kulasena (2008) 3 3000BC–2000BC Geological evidence indicates two tsunamis occurred between 3000 to 2000BC
Jordan (2008) 13 326BC AD2004 Tsunami records in the Indian, Arabian, Persian and Gulf Seas
Jaiswal et al. (2008) 27 326BC AD2007 Illustrates tsunamigenic sources in the Indian Ocean
Jankaew et al. (2008) 3 800BC AD1400–AD1550 Palaeotsunami records based on sedimentary evidence
Monecke et al. (2008) 3 AD780–AD990 AD1907 A 1000-year sediment record of tsunamis in Northern Sumatra
Mörner et al. (2008) 5 AD200–AD400 AD2004 Submarine sand storms driven by tsunami waves brought littoral deposits
Fujino et al. (2009) 3 Before AD1300 AD2004 Carbon dating indicate infer tsunami occurred before AD1300
Yawsangratt et al. (2009) 2 n. d. (Holocene AD2004 Hypothetical palaeotsunami near Thap Lamu Navy Base in Phang Nga Province,
period) Thailand
Kunz et al. (2010) 4 2000BC AD2004 Mainly Holocene coastal event record inferred from sediment analysis
Rajendran et al. (2010) 4 AD9–AD11 AD2004 The tsunami geology of the Bay of Bengal
Yawsangratt et al. (2011) 2 38,000BC AD2004 Sediment layer (palaeotsunami) below the 2004 IOT event dated to about 40,000 BP
(dates believed reworked and event likely occurred in the Holocene)

2.2. Catalogues and lists of Indian Ocean tsunamis published after the 2005; Subarya et al., 2006). The locations of some of these earth-
2004 IOT quakes are indicated by the red stars in Fig. 1.
The Andaman Trench (AT in Fig. 1) that encompasses the
The 2004 IOT created interest in the record of tsunamis of the In- Andaman and Nicobar Arc is located to the north of the SSZ and sep-
dian Ocean. Consequently, many more catalogues have been pro- arates the Indian and Sunda plates (Ortiz and Bilham, 2003). It is seis-
duced since 2004 (Table 1). For the first time, these publications mically very active. Earthquakes in AD1847, AD1881 and AD1941
have begun to include inferred palaeotsunamis that can be added to generated tsunamis. The locations of these events are indicated by
the longer-term record of historical events. the red stars in Fig. 1. North of the AT is the Arakan Subduction
Once again, the authors of these publications focus on slightly dif- Zone (ASZ). At least one ASZ earthquake in AD1762 triggered
ferent time periods, geographic locations, events (e.g., all tsunamis liquefaction-induced surface cracking, compaction, subsidence and
versus teletsunamis only) and provide varying degrees of detail, his- tsunamis resulting in human deaths and damage to houses along
torical source material and types of geological evidence. From this the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar (Oldham, 1882; Cummins,
work, it has been suggested that six regions of subduction and com- 2007).
pression (the Sunda Subduction Zone, the Andaman Trench, the To the west, the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) extends in an
Makran Subduction Zone, the Indus Delta, the Kutch-Saurashtra and east–west direction along the Pakistan and Iranian coasts (Fig. 1). Al-
the Arakan Subduction Zone (see Fig. 1 for exact locations)) are all though Jaiswal et al. (2008) do not believe that the MSZ is seismically
tsunamigenic (Kumar and Achyuthan, 2006; Rastogi and Jaiswal, active, at least four earthquakes occurring in AD1483, AD1765,
2006; Rastogi, 2007; Jaiswal et al., 2008). AD1851 and AD1864 are known from the existing records before
The Sunda Subduction Zone (SSZ) (Fig. 1) extends for over AD1900 (Byrne et al., 1992). These earthquakes resulted in varying
5600 km in a north–south direction along the east side of the Indian degrees of impact. The last known tsunamigenic earthquake occurred
Ocean and prior to the 2004 IOT, had an earthquake history of events on 28 November AD1945 (Mw 8) killing over 4000 people. Still within
with magnitudes of less than Mw 9 (Newcomb and McCann, 1987). the western Indian Ocean, the Indus Delta and the adjacent coast of
Although no historical events with magnitudes of 9 or larger had oc- the Kutch and Saurashtra (Fig. 1) may also have a similar seismic en-
curred in previous centuries, large and very large events had (e.g., Mw vironment capable of generating tsunamis (Jaiswal et al., 2008). For
7.5–7.9 in AD1847 (Hamzah et al., 2000); Mw 7.9 in AD1881 (Ortiz example, in AD1668 an earthquake (Fig. 1) is said to have caused
and Bilham, 2003) and Mw 7.7 in AD1941 (Rastogi, 2007)). Other re- the sinking of 30,000 houses into the ground of the Indus Delta
searchers have described various other significant events in the SSZ (Oldham, 1882).
prior to the 2004 IOT (e.g., Newcomb and McCann, 1987; Bilham et As already mentioned, after the 2004 IOT, significant efforts have
al., 2005; Natawidjaja et al., 2006). The proposed length of earth- been made to understand the longer-term record of tsunamis in the
quake ruptures of these various pre-2004 IOT events was much small- region by undertaking palaeotsunami investigations. Such studies
er than that generated the 2004 IOT and as such would be expected to have pushed back the oldest known event far beyond the earliest his-
influence the magnitude of any associated tsunamis (Bilham et al., torical event (at 3000BC) to about 40,000BP or 38,000BC (although
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E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193 179

the dating for this event is poor and it most likely occurred in the Ho- allows us to determine whether or not a tsunami was likely to have
locene). The published palaeotsunami studies are also included in occurred. The ‘validity code’ score given to any one event is based
Table 1 (e.g., Dahanayake and Kulasena, 2008; Jankaew et al., 2008; upon a combination of the:
Monecke et al., 2008; Mörner et al., 2008; Fujino et al., 2009;
(1) reported tsunamigenic source, its magnitude and location;
Yawsangratt et al., 2009, 2011; Kunz et al., 2010; Rajendran et al.,
(2) clarity of event descriptions given by the original reporting au-
2010).
thors/sources;
(3) previous codes given by the NGDC and NTL databases (if
3. Methods and approach—development of the new database
available);
(4) accuracy in referencing and interpretation of cited materials;
In order to develop a comprehensive tsunami catalogue (Table 2),
and
we used online global tsunami databases (e.g., the National Geophys-
(5) our professional judgement.
ical Data Center (NGDC) and Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory (NTL)),
published tsunami records (Table 1), journal articles in the peer A definite tsunami is one that meets all five validity assessment
reviewed literature, books, newspaper reports, and historical archives criteria (Validity Code 5).
from the India Records Office of the British Library and Royal Society Probable tsunamis are those for which the majority of the event
in London. The NGDC collects data about tsunamigenic earthquakes descriptions are reliable but for which there is some inconsistency
from available written records, which include but are not limited to in the remaining documentation (Validity Code 4). Evidence for pal-
peer reviewed papers, reports, newspaper articles, local historical aeotsunamis reported by a single study is listed as Probable tsunami.
books and media reports. Whilst we were collecting and collating Doubtful tsunamis are those for which there is either some consid-
data from the NGDC and NTL databases, we noted that their contents erable inconsistency between the cited documents, or events that are
were continuously being updated. For example, they might complete- currently only referred to in a single document (Validity Code 3). Dur-
ly delete an incorrect entry, add a new entry where new data emerges ing a thorough evaluation of the available data, some previously pur-
and enrich existing events with new information where such infor- ported tsunamis have been redefined as seiches in or disturbances of
mation becomes available. an inland water body (Validity Code 2). Last, erroneous entries are
Our work paid particular attention to identifying events that af- those that either do not meet our validity assessment criteria or
fected the Bay of Bengal region. However, in order to ensure a com- have been associated with a different process by a reliable source (Va-
prehensive coverage for the region and its potential tsunamigenic lidity Code 1).
sources (see Fig. 1), we selected a study area between Latitude 15° In addition to the validation of previously reported tsunamis, we
S to 29° N and Longitude 70° E to 106° E that includes Bangladesh, undertook a cross check of references and performed a contents anal-
India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, part ysis to verify the date of occurrence of an event, to explore inconsis-
of Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. tencies in citations, to identify problems relating to magnitudes of
We built our initial database by incorporating all tsunamis occur- earthquakes and to identify exaggeration of deaths reported in the
ring between Latitude 15°S to 29°N and Longitude 70°E to 106°E existing sources.
recorded in the NGDC catalogue (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/). We In this study, a source material item we have consulted is consid-
then repeatedly interrogated the NGDC database by searching for ered to be a secondary source. For example, for the AD416 event, we
events in specific countries (e.g., India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, etc.). consulted several sources (e.g., Judd, 1889; Heck, 1947; Iida et al.,
We then repeated this process using the NTL database (http://tsun. 1967; Berninghausen, 1969; Soloviev and Go, 1974; Simkin and
sscc.ru/nh/tsunami.php). The results of these analyses formed the Fiske, 1983; Rastogi and Jaiswal, 2006; Jaiswal et al., 2008; NGDC,
basis for developing a more detailed historical tsunami database. 2011), which are considered as secondary sources. Heck (1947) and
Our new database (Table 2) includes details for a number of pa- Soloviev and Go (1974) referred to Wichmann (1918b) from where
rameters for each event and builds upon the event details listed by they obtained information for this particular event. At this stage, we
the NOAA NGDC “Tsunami Event Database” (see: http://www.ngdc. are not able to consult Wichmann (1918b) and consider this refer-
noaa.gov/hazard/tsu.shtml). These are: event number (in our data- ence as a primary source for that event. Hence, primary sources are
base); the event date; the tsunami source region (including latitude those that we have not yet consulted for a particular event and sec-
and longitude where known); a code for the source type; a list of ondary sources are those that we have.
countries and places affected (with latitude and longitude where Last, we undertook Poisson probability analysis using SPSS 12.0
known); the magnitude of the earthquake that triggered the tsunami (George and Mallery, 2005) in order to determine the recurrence in-
(when the trigger was an earthquake); maximum water height in terval of tsunamis at regional and sub-regional levels. Poisson is a dis-
metres (where known e.g., listed in the NGDC database); the number crete frequency distribution that provides the chance of independent
of run-up measurements (where known); the number of deaths and/ events occurring in a given interval of time. The Poisson distribution
or injuries (where known); a validity score for the reported tsunami; was applied to understand the chance of occurrences annually and
key comments where appropriate and information on our primary over a century.
and secondary sources for the event (Table 2). Each row in the data-
base relates to a unique event. This is a similar format to that adopted 4. Results
by NOAA NGDC (see: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu.shtml).
For each event listed in our database, we assign a ‘code’ for two A total of 135 purported tsunamis are reported from the sources
specific parameters. These are (1) the “tsunami cause code” (from 1 we examined (Table 2). These originated within, or affected the Bay
to 5) and, (2) the “validity code” (from 1 to 5) (see Table 3 for de- of Bengal region between 38,000BC(?) and AD2010. Ten pal-
scription). Not all of the events reported in the previously published aeotsunamis (event #s 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16) and 125 historical
tsunami catalogues are actual tsunamis. For example, a tsunami is tsunamis are recorded.
purported to have occurred in China on 14 August AD1918 (Gongxu The oldest tsunami – also the first palaeotsunami – possibly dates as
et al., 1989). The reported location of the earthquake epicentre (Lat. far back as 38,000BC (although it is probably Holocene in age) and af-
26.9°/Long. 103°) is deep within the Chinese mainland and cannot fected the western coast of Thailand (Yawsangratt et al., 2011). The
have triggered a tsunami within the Indian Ocean. After careful anal- oldest historical tsunami reported within the historical records (also
ysis of the event documentation we have now amended our database the second oldest event listed) dates to between 3000 and 2000BC
to record this as a seiche. Thus, validating each individual event and is reported to have impacted the Sri Lankan coast (Dahanayake
Author's personal copy

180
Table 2
A database of reported historical and palaeotsunamis in the Indian Ocean (Latitude 15° S to 29° N and Longitude 70° E to 106° E) with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal.

Event Date of Reported source location Cause Tsunami affected area Magnitude Max water Num of Deaths/ Validity Key comments Primary Secondary
no event Code of earthquake height (m) Run-up Injuries code source (see source (see
Name of Latitude/ Country Locations
or max run-up references references
Location Longitude affected
height (m) below table) below table)

1 38,000BC * * 2 Thailand Southern Kho * * * * 4 A portion of sediment layer – 109


Khao Island (palaeotsunami) below the 2004 IOT
event dated to about 40,000BP
2 3000BC– * * 2 Sri Lanka Southern * * * * 4 Historical texts and geological – 103
2000BC Coastlines evidence indicate at least two tsunamis
occurred between 3000BC and 2000BC
3 1500BC * * 1 India Gujarat Coast * * * * 3 The drowning of the city Dwarka can be – 107
attributable at that time
4 800BC * * 2 Thailand Phuket * * * * 4 Mediaeval forewarning of the 2004 – 104
Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand
5 325BC (21) The Makran 25.30/63.33 2 India Kutch Region * * * * 3 Alexander the Great's Macedonian – 15, 21, 44,
326BC (45) Coast Pakistan Indus Delta fleet destroyed 45, 63, 76,
Sri Lanka Kalyani Kanika 77, 78, 98
6 50BC–AD100 * * 1 India Kapaadarapuram * * * * 3 The ferocious sea has engulfed the river – 107
7 AD10 * * 2 India Red Skin Island * * * * 4 1000 year old palaeotsunami sediments – 112

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193


8 AD9–AD11 * * 1 India Kaveripattinam * * * * 4 A sea flood that crippled the historic port – 105
at Kaveripattinam
9 AD200–AD400 * * 2 Sri Lanka Southern * * * * 4 Stones were tilted in different directions – 108
Sri Lanka in a manner suggesting severe
ground shaking
(75) (1)
10 AD416 South Java −6.102/ 4 Indonesia South Java * * 2 * 4 A Japanese book called 'Book of Kings' 55 1, 25, 26,
105.42 states “The water of the sea rose and 35, 61, 62,
inundated the land…and swept away 63, 75, 98
with all their property”
11 AD500 Krakatoa (98) −6.07/105.27 4 India Tamilnadu * * * * 3 The ancient town Kaveripattinam was – 63, 98, 107
washed away and the time of event
matches with the Krakatau explosion
12 AD780–AD990 * * 2 Indonesia Sumatra * * * * 4 A 1000‐year sediment record of tsunami – 106
occurrence in northern Sumatra
13 AD900 Sunda- 10.46/79.54 2 India Nagapattinum * * * Hundreds (63) 3 Waves washed away the monastery – 63, 98
(63)
Andaman and Tamilnadu and several temples
Arc (63)
14 AD1290–1400 * * 2 Indonesia Sumatra * * * 4 A 1000‐year sediment record of tsunami – 106
occurrence in northern Sumatra
15 Before AD1300 * * 2 Thailand Phra Thong * * * * 4 Radiocarbon dating infers tsunami – 110
Isand occurred before AD1300
16 AD1300–1450 * * 2 Thailand Phuket * * * * 4 The most recent similar-sized – 104
predecessor of the 2004 tsunami
occurred about 550–700 years ago
17 AD1524 Arabian sea/ 20.4/72.9 (1) 1 India Dabul (Dhabi) (1) * * * * 3 Death/effects reported by Vasco Da 33, 46 1, 14, 15, 18,
Bay of Cambay/ Gulf of Cambay (44) Gama's fleet in Daub (46) 44, 63, 64,
Makran Coast (64) 76, 98, 107
18 11 Dec AD1681 Earthquake in − 0.35/101.2 2 Indonesia Sumatra * * * * 3 A sea quake was observed – 51, 63, 67
(51)
Sumatra (51)
19 4 Aug Ava (Innwa) (1) 19.24/94.33 2 Myanmar (1) Ava (Innwa) * * * * 3 Pagodas, etc. fell. The water from – 1, 3
AD1714 the river rushed into the city
20 11 Oct AD1737 Bay of Bengal 13.31/87.32 5 India Kolkata * * 1 (1) 3000(44) 1 The AD1737 Calcutta earthquake 17, 70 1, 16, 10,
(Calcutta) 300,000 (1,10) in the lists of catastrophic earthquakes 44, 47
appears to be unjustified.
21 AD1750 Myanmar 18.5/93.4 2 Myanmar (1) Cheduba * * * * 3 Several small non-damaging waves 93 1, 9
Coast Island (9)
(1)
22 2 Apr AD1762 Northern Bay 22/92 2 India, Kolkata M w 8.8 (4) 1.83 (1)
1 (1)
200 (1) Many 5 At Dhaka hundreds of large country boats 8, 11, 65 1, 4, 9, 10, 44,
of Bengal Bangladesh Chittagong death (44) were driven ashore, or lost, and great 47, 48, 49, 63,
Myanmar Cheduba (1, 10, 44) numbers of lives lost in them. 67, 70, 71, 80,
81,82, 83, 98
23 −5/102 (1) 2 Indonesia SW Sumatra (1, 51) Ms 7.0 (68) * 1 (1)
* 4 50
Author's personal copy

30 Nov AD1770 Earthquake in Volcanic eruption occurred 1, 25, 44, 51,


(68)
Sumatra (51, 68) simultaneously with this event (51) 63, 68, 84
24 10 (1,9, 68) Earthquake in − 1/100 2 Indonesia SW Sumatra (1) 8.5–8.7 (44) * 2 (1)
300 (1)
5 The settlement of Ajermanis on the coast 50 1,9, 25, 26,
10–11 (51) Sumatra (51, 68) and the Batu Ms 8 (68) was flooded and huts were washed away 44, 51, 57,
Feb AD1797 Island (51) 63, 68, 84, 87
25 AD1799 South East −3.19/104.75 2 Indonesia South East * 15 (1, 35)
* * 3 Wave about 50 ft above ordinary 55 9, 25, 26,
Sumatra Sumatra water level 35, 63, 87
26 AD1809 Gurhwal 2 India Bishnoo Gunga * * * * 2 Water rose 40 ft above its usual level, and 89 48
River landslide blocked the river
27 29 (1, 68) Apr Malacca 5.38/100.25 2 Malaysia Penang Island * * 1 (1)
* 3 There was a very strong shock in the – 1, 25, 63, 68
AD1816 Peninsula (1) (1)
96.5 (68) northern and central parts of the island
28 18 Mar AD1818 Bengkulu (25) − 3.76/ 3 Indonesia SW Sumatra (68) Ms 7 (1, 68)
* 1 (1)
* 4 Sea withdrew and returned with – 1,9, 25, 26,
102.26 great force and overflowed land 51, 63, 84, 87
29 Mid May * * 2 Indonesia * * * * * 2 A significant aftershock and associated – 51
AD1819 seaquake were reported
30 16 Jun AD1819 Kutch (1) 23/71 2 India Tsunami in M w 7.7 (1) * 1 (1)
1543 (1, 10)
4 A tremendous rush from the ocean, and all 66 1, 9, 10, 15,
Arabian Sea (10), submerged, ground sinking apparently 18, 48, 63, 98
Sind and about 14 ft (48)
adjoining
area (48)
31 9 Feb AD1823 Sri Lanka 7.5/80.46 2 Sri Lanka * 5.7 (88) * * * 2 Felt severely in sea by ships 90 48
32 6 Jan AD1827 From sea (48) 17.42/83.15 2 India Vishakhapatnam * * * * 2 Sharp shocks apparently from sea 91 48

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193


33 29 Jan AD1833 Bengkulu, − 3.5/102.15 2 Indonesia Padang and * * * * 3 Sea wave tore ships from their – 9, 26, 87
Sumatra Priana anchors in Priana (26)
(1) (1)
34 6 Sep AD1833 Yunnan 25.2/103 2 China Yunnan Province Ms 8 * 1 * 2 A landslide occurred in Mountain – 1, 27
Province Xishan, the Dianchi Lake surged
35 24 Nov AD1833 Bengkulu (68) − 3.5/102.2 2 Indonesia Padang, Pariaman Ms 8.3 (1) * 3 (1)
* 5 A tsunami over 550 km along the 28, 29, 1, 25, 44, 51,
and Bengkulu 8.7 (44, 51) south central coast of Sumatra 50, 54 52, 53, 63,
M w 8.7 (67) 68, 84, 87
36 31 Aug AD1837 Banda 5.5/96 2 Indonesia Ms 7.2 (68) * * * 3 – – 68
Aceh (68)
(1) (1)
37 29 Sep AD1837 Banda Aceh 5.5/96 2 Malaysia Penang Island Ms 7.3 * 2 * 4 Volcano eruption occurred aftertwo – 1, 25, 63, 84
Singapore Teluk Ayer weeks of earthquake
38 23 Mar AD1839 Amarapoora * 2 Myanmar Ava and * * * * 2 Large quantities of water (and sand) of a – 48
Amarapoora brackish appearance had been ejected
39 16 Dec AD1841 Banda sea − 3.24/ 2 Indonesia Moluccas, * Runup1.2–1.5 (35) * * 3 Moderate sea wave 1.2 to 1.5 m high 50, 55 26, 35, 61,
near Moluccas (35) 103.31 Amboina,
Buru (35)
(1) (1)
40 11 Nov AD1842 Earthquake in 21/89 2 India Kolkata Ms 6.0 * 3 * 3 Tsunami wave at the various tributaries 8, 11, 94 1, 9,10, 44,
northern of the Bangladesh Dhaka of the Ganges River, Dhaka, Calcutta and 47, 48, 57,
Bay of Bengal Myanmar Cheduba Island Cheduba Island (10) 63, 82, 98
41 5 (25, 68) Nias Island (25) 1.5/98 2 Indonesia Barus Island, Ms 7.3 (1)
* 3 (1)
* 5 A tremendous tsunami wiped out towns 55, 70 1,9, 25, 26,
5–6 (9, 26, 51, 87) SW Sumatra (68) Kampong De on the east coast of Nias and reached 44, 48, 51, 63,
Jan AD1843 Mero and Pulau the main land 67, 68, 84, 87
Nias Island 87
6 (67) Jan SW Sumatra * – Indonesia Sumatra * * * * * – 55, 70 26, 67
AD1843
(48)
42 30 Oct AD1843 Sandoway * 2 India Ramree and * * * * 2 Very sharp earthquake felt at Gukiong, 92 48
Cheduba on sea, 90 miles to south
43 19 Jun AD1845 Rann of Kutch 23.58/70 2 India Rann of Kutch * * 3 (1) * 4 The sea rolled up the Koree – 1, 9, 10,
63, 98
44 6 Aug AD1845 Gowhatty and * 2 India Midnapore * * * * 2 The earthquake was followed by – 48
Serampore inundation of the Cossye
Sylhet Bangladesh
45 31 Oct AD1847 Little Nicobar 7.33/93.66 2 India Kondul Island M w 7.5–7.9 (67) * 1 (1)
* 4 The small island of Kondul was inundated 8, 11, 59 1,9, 10, 26,
Island 44, 63, 98
(48)
46 14 Feb AD1851 Narnee Jal * 2 India Narnee Jal * * * * 2 Shock accompanied by immense Perry 48
inundations
(1) (1)
47 4 May AD1851 Lampung Bay − 5/105 1 Indonesia Telukbetung and * 1.5 1 * 4 A tidal wave rose 1.5 m above the flood – 1, 25
Lampung Bay tide level (25)
48 11 Nov AD1852 Java (68) 1.7/98.8 2 Indonesia Nias Island Ms 6.8 (1, 68)
* 1 (1)
* 3 The waters of all this area were – 1, 25, 63,
Sibolga (1) disturbed (25) 68, 84

(continued on next page)


181
Author's personal copy

182
Table 2 (continued)
Event Date of Reported source location Cause Tsunami affected area Magnitude Max water Num of Deaths/ Validity Key comments Primary Secondary
no event Code of earthquake height (m) Run-up Injuries code source (see source (see
Name of Latitude/ Country Locations
or max run-up references references
Location Longitude affected
height (m) below table) below table)

49 24 Aug AD1858 Hills between the 21.54/95.57 2 Myanmar False Island * * * * 2 Entire disappearance of False Island – 48
Irawadi and the Bangladesh
Bay of Bengal (48) India
50 16 Feb AD1861 South West −1/97.9 2 Indonesia Banda Aceh, Ms 8.5 (1, 51, 68) 7 (1, 51)
9 (1)
1001 (1) 50 (87) 5 Waves noted by several vessels at sea 29, 55 1, 9, 25, 26,
Sumatra Batu Island 44, 51, 63, 68,
71, 84, 87
16 Feb AD1861 Western Malaysia 5.15/100.29 * Malaysia Penang * * * * * There was an unusual commotion in the – 48
sea. Sky clear and no wind.
16 Feb 1 AD861 Kolkata 22.3/88.2 – India Kolkata * * * * * Water in tanks rose 1 ft above its level – 48
51 9 Mar AD1861 Banda sea (68) 0/98 (1, 68) 2 Indonesia Babanireg and Ms 7 (1, 68)
* 4 (1)
750 (1)
5 High wave swept inland with loss of life 55 1, 25, 26, 51,
Simuk Island 63, 68, 84,
(1) (1)
52 26 Apr AD1861 Earthquake 1/97.5 2 Indonesia SW Sumatra Ms 7 * 1 * 5 Felt on the mainland with an associated – 1, 25, 51,
in Sumatra (51, 68)
tsunami in the north 63, 68, 84
53 17 Jun AD1861 SW Sumatra 1/97.5 2 Indonesia SW Sumatra Ms 6.8 (1) * – * 4 A little after this earthquake, the water – 1, 25, 63, 84
rose and fell three times
54 25 Sep AD1861 Earthquake in SW −1.5/100 2 Indonesia Sumatra: Padang, Ms 6.5 (1, 68)
* 1 (1)
* 4 High wave swept coast. Several boast and 55 1, 9, 25, 26,

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193


Sumatra (51, 68) Indapura (87) huts were washed away (25) 51, 63, 68,
71, 84, 87
55 16 Feb AD1864 West Sumatra −0.57/ 2 Indonesia Penjaboengan * * * * 3 Penjaboengan inundated by sea wave – 1, 9, 26,
100.21 71, 87
56 19 Aug AD1868 Earthquake in 11.67/92.73 1 India Port Blair * 4 (10) 1 (1)
* 5 Tsunami at Port Blair – 1, 10, 44, 98
Andaman Islands
57 AD1874 Bhola 22/89 (63) 2 Bangladesh Sundarbans * * * * 2 – Mihir 63, 98
earthquake (63) Guha (63)
(20)
58 9 Jan AD1876 Andaman 9.58/95.29 5 India Bay of Bengal * * * 215,000 1 The Bakerganj tropical cyclone of 1876 – 13, 19, 20
Islands (20) with a central pressure of 930 mb
59 31 Dec AD1881 Centre of the 8.5/92.4 2 Indian Car Nicobar 7.1 (44) M 1.22 (1) 11 (1)
* 5 Tsunami wave from Sri Lanka to Ganges 8, 11, 72 1, 9, 10, 12,
Bay of Bengal (9) Island, w 7.9
(1)
Delta in Bengal 26, 44, 56,
Sri Lanka Chennai 64, 98
Visakhapatnam
Trincomalee
60 1 (1, 44) Jan Feb Trincomalee 8.57/81.23 2 Sri Lanka Trincomalee (10) * * 1 (1)
4 Tsunami at Trincomalee, Sri Lanka (10) 8, 11 1, 9, 10, 26,
(9)
AD1882 44, 71, 98
26 Aug AD1883 Java (68) −6.10 (68) 4 Indonesia Java * 35 (87) * 36, 000 (87) * On Sumatra shore height rose 80 ft 95 9,26, 35, 61,
105.4 (68) 63, 68, 87
61 27 Aug AD Krakatoa −6.10/ – Australia Cocos Island * 35 (1) 15 (21) 83 (1)
36, 000 (1) 5 Krakatau eruption generated waves with 95 1,9, 10, 35,
(44, 68)
1883 explosion 105.42 (1) Indonesia Java local heights up to 100 ft 44, 63, 62,
Sri Lanka, Mumbai 68, 73, 79, 98
India Trincomalee
62 Feb AD1884 Krakatoa −6.1/105.42 2 Indonesia Krakatau * * * * 3 Earthquake in the western part of the – 1, 25, 45, 63
Bay of Bengal (45)
63 31 Dec AD1884 Sunda Strait −6.10 (68)/ 4 Indonesia * * * * * 3 – – 68
105.4 (68)
64 29 Jul AD1885 SW Sumatra 0.2/99.38 2 Indonesia Ajerbangis, Ms 6.8 (1, 68)
* * * 3 Waves began to break on shore with – 1, 25, 63,
Sumatra great force 68, 84
65 14 Dec AD1885 Banda 5.5/96 2 Indonesia Banda Aceh * * * * 3 The water level in the river was high – 1, 25, 63
Aceh (68)
66 AD1886 Unknown (44) 2 Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal * * * * 3 – – 1, 10, 44
67 31 Jan AD1886 Cota-Raja, 5.5/96 2 Indonesia Cota-Raja, * * * * 3 – – 68
Aceh (68) Aceh, Indonesia
68 19 May Sigli, Aceh (68) 5.5/96 2 Indonesia Aceh * * * * 1 – – 68
AD1886
69 21 Mar AD1888 Breueh Islands 5.7/95.08 2 Indonesia * * * * * 1 – – 68
(1)
70 16 Aug AD1889 Java earthquake −6/106 2 Indonesia Java Ms 6 * * * 3 – – 1, 67, 68
(1)
71 17 May Northeast 2.5/98.5 2 Indonesia, Sumatra * * 6 * 4 A strong surf was observed in the 30 1, 25, 63,
AD1892 Sumatra Singapore rivers on the eastern coast of 68, 84, 87
Sumatra Island (25)
72 10 Oct AD1896 SW Sumatra (68) −3.5/102.5 2 Indonesia Gunungsitoli Ms 6.8 (1, 68)
* 1 (1)
* 3 –
Author's personal copy

The sea was more restless than during the 1, 25, 63,
preceding 6 h 68, 84
73 June AD1897 * * 2 India Kolkata and * * * * 3 A great tidal wave swept up the – 113, 114
Assam Brahmapootra River over 250 miles from sea
74 27 Jul AD1902 * * 2 Indonesia Bengkulu * * * * 3 – – 87
75 4 Jul AD1904 Off the 0.35/101.2 1 Indonesia Sumatra * * * * 3 Submarine shock sunk a sailing boat 32 9, 63, 87
Siri-siri (9)
76 7 Sep AD1904 S Java * 2 Indonesia S Java * * * * 3 – – 1, 25
77 4 Apr AD1905 Earthquake * 2 India Kangra 8.6 (1, 10), * 1 (1)
20, 000 (10) 3 – – 1, 10, 22
near Kangra M w 7.8 22
78 4 Jan (1, 51, 68) SW Sumatra (68) 2/94.5 2 Indonesia Banda Aceh, Ms 7.6 (1, 44, 68) 2.10 1 10 (1)
400 (1, 5)
5 Tidal water flooded huts – 1, 9, 25, 26,
Feb (5) AD1907 Barus, Natal M w 7.4 (68) 44, 51, 63,
and Padang 68, 84, 87
4 Jan AD1907 * * Srilanka Extraordinary maritime disturbances – 116
79 6 Feb AD1908 SW Sumatra (68) −2/100 2 Indonesia Sikakap Ms 7.5 (1, 68)
1.4 (1) 1 (1)
* 5 Tsunami damage reported on the seaward 74 1,9, 25,
side of the islands 26, 51, 63,
68, 84, 87
80 3 Jun AD1909 Sumatra Fault (68) −2/101 2 Indonesia Kambang Ms 7.6 (1) 7.3 (87) * 4 (1)
* 3 Large movements of water were observed 31 1, 25, 63,
Muti, Pau M w 7.2 (68) at Kambang 68, 84, 87
81 25 Jun AD1914 Bencoolen in −4.5/102.5 2 Indonesia Sumatra Ms 7.6 (1) * * * 3 The earthquake led to an upheaval of 30 1, 63, 68
Sumatra (30) M w 7.5 (68) the sea and a ship
(1)
26 Jul AD1914 Lais, Sumatra - 3.5/102 – Indonesia Ende * * 1 * – – 25 1

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193


82 26 Jul AD1915 Earthquake in −3.5/102 2 Indonesia Lais, Sumatra * * * * 3 Oscillations of the sea (25) – 25, 68
Lais (68)
(1)
83 16 Mar AD1917 Java * 1 Indonesia Java * * 1 * 3 Great damage done by tidal wave at Pagatan – 1, 25
84 14 Aug AD1918 Yunnan 26.9/103 2 China Yunnan Ms 5.5 (1) * 1 (1)
* 2 Waves surged high in the river – 1, 27
Province (1) Province
85 1 Apr AD1921 North Sumatra, 2.06/99.32 2 Indonesia Tapanuli * * * * 3 – – 87
86 10 Apr AD1922 Padang, −0.98/ 1 Indonesia Padang * * * * 3 – – 68
Sumatra (68) 100.33
87 8 Jul AD1922 Calang, Aceh, 5.46/ 95.23 2 Indonesia Aceh * * * * 3 The shock was accompanied by a seaquake – 1, 25, 63, 68
88 28 Jun AD1926 SW Sumatra −1.5/99.5 2 Indonesia Lake Singkarak Ms 5.8 (1) * * 222 (87)/Many 2 – 32 1, 63, 84, 87
(87)

89 1 Jul AD1926 Java −3.26/ 2 Indonesia Java Ms 6.8 (68) * * * 1 – – 68


100.69
90 26 Mar AD1928 Krakatoa −6.1, 105.42 4 Indonesia Sunda St., * * * * 3 The sea level rose and fell nine times – 1,9, 25,
Lampung 63, 68, 87
(1) (1)
91 9 Nov AD1929 Tjalang, 4.63/95.56 1 Indonesia Tjalang, NW * * 1 6 2 It was ebb tide phase and no earthquake 57 1, 25
NW Sumatra was felt 25
Sumatra
92 17 Mar AD1930 Krakatau −6.1/105.42 4 Indonesia Krakatau * 500 (1) * * 3 The surface of the sea repeatedly – 1, 25,
swelled 25 63, 68
93 5 May AD1930 Myanmar 17.3/96.5 2 Myanmar Pegu Ms 7.2 (115) * 1 (1)
550 (1)
5 The ancient seaport of Pegu was almost – 1, 3, 5, 6, 7
Coast entirely destroyed
(68)
94 19 Jun AD1930 South Java −5.6/105.3 2 Indonesia South Java Ms 6 1.5 (1) * * 4 – – 1, 67, 68, 84
Sea
95 25 Sep AD1931 SW Sumatra −5/102.75 2 Indonesia Pulau Island Ms 7.4 (1) 1 (1)
1 (1)
* 4 The wave rose 1 m above the highest tide – 1, 25, 63,
M w 7.3 (68) mark 68, 84, 87
96 15 Jan AD1934 Earthquake in 26.5/86.5 2 India and Ganges River (10) M w 8.1 (1) * 1 (1)
10, 700 (10) 2 Tsunami in Ganges River – 1, 10
Bihar and Nepal
Nepal (10)
97 21 Sep AD1934 North Sumatra 1/99 2 Indonesia South Tapanuli 7.5 (87) * * * 3 – – 87
98 31 May Andaman- 16/91 2 India * M w 7.5 (98) * * 30, 000 (10) 3 – – 10, 63, 98
AD1935 Nicobar
Islands
99 25 Nov AD1935 Celebes Sea 5.5/94 2 Indonesia Celebes sea Ms 6.5 (1, 10)
* * * 3 – – 1, 10, 63, 98
100 18 Dec AD1935 Sichuan 28.7/103.6 2 China Wutongqiao Ms 6 (1) * 1 (1)
* 2 High waves surged – 1. 27
Province on the river
101 28 Dec AD1935 SW Sumatra 0.001/98.25 2 Indonesia SW Sumatra M w 7.8 (68) * * 3 – – 1, 25, 63,
(68)
68, 84, 87
102 23 Aug AD1936 East of Java (68) 6.1/94.7 2 Indonesia Off Northwest Ms 7.3 (1) * * 91 (87)
/20 (87)
3 – 29 1, 10, 63,
Coast (1) 63, 68, 87
(1) (10)
103 26 Jun AD1941 12.5/92.5 2 India * 2 5000 5 – 23, 59
183

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184
Table 2 (continued)
Event Date of Reported source location Cause Tsunami affected area Magnitude Max water Num of Deaths/ Validity Key comments Primary Secondary
no event Code of earthquake height (m) Run-up Injuries code source (see source (see
Name of Latitude/ Country Locations
or max run-up references references
Location Longitude affected
height (m) below table) below table)

Andaman Andaman sea 7.6 (1) 7.7 (44) 1, 10, 44,


Sea (1) and E. Coast 8.1 (10) 45, 58, 63,
of India (1, 10, 45) M w 7.7 (98) 98, 100
104 28 Nov AD1945 Makran 24.12/62.36 2 India Bombay 6.65 (9) * * 5 Bombay experienced a wave height 6.5 ft – 9, 96, 97

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193


Coast on 8.15 am.
105 2 Jun AD1948 Malaya 6/95 2 Indonesia Sabang Ms 6.2 (1) * 1 (1)
* 3 – – 1, 25, 63,
Penninsula, 68, 84
Sumatra (68)
106 9 May AD1949 Banda Aceh 5/95 2 Indonesia Banda Aceh Ms 6.7 (1, 10) * * * 3 – – 1, 10, 63
107 15 Aug AD1950 Assam, 28.6/96.5 2 India, Norway India, Norway M w 8.6 (1) 0.5 (1)
41 (1) 1530 (10)
2 Tsunami in Brahmaputra river 10 33 1, 10, 34
India (34) and the UK1 and the UK1 8.7 (10)
108 21 Dec AD1951 Gansu and 26.7/100 2 China Jianhu Lake Ms 6.3 (1) 2 (1)
1 (1)
* 2 The water of Jianhu Lake flowed backward – 1, 27
Shanxi for 1–1.5 km with waves 1–2 m high and
Provinces (1) overflowed the land
109 17 May Little Nicobar 6.5/94 2 India Little Nicobar Ms 7.3 (1) * * * 3 – – 1, 10
AD1955 Island (1) Island (1)
110 23 Sep AD1955 Yunnan Province 26.6/101.8 2 China Jinsha River, Ms 6.8 (1) 1 (1)
* * 2 Waves in the Jinsha River surged – 1, 27
Yunnan Province 1 m high
(1)
111 21 Apr AD1958 Bengkulu − 4.5/104 2 Indonesia Bengkulu and M w 6.5 (1, 68) * * * 3 – – 1, 25, 63, 68
Telukbetung
112 16 Dec AD1963 Java − 6.2/105.4 2 Indonesia Java M w 6.6 (1, 68) * * * 3 – – 1, 25, 63,
5 (87) 68, 87
113 2 Apr AD1964 Off Northwest 5.8/95.4 3 Indonesia Off Northwest Ms 7 (1, 87) 0.7 (1)
* 110 (87)
/479 4 – – 1, 25, 63, 87
(87)
Coast of Coast
Indonesia
(68)
2 Apr AD1964 Malaya 5.9/95.4 – Malaysia Malay Ms 7 * * * – – – 1, 63, 68
Peninsula (68)
114 12 Apr AD1967 Malaya 5.5/97.3 2 Indonesia Sigli Ms 6.5 (87) Big (87)
1 (1)
* 4 The quake was followed by an 29 1, 25, 35,
Peninsula (68) Ms 7.5 (68) enormous tsunami 63, 68,
84, 87
115 24 Feb AD1982 Java Trench (68) 4.37/97.75 2 Indonesia Java Trench Ms 5.4 (1) 0.1 (1)
* * 5 – – 1, 36, 37,
38, 63
116 30 Nov AD1983 Chagos − 6.85/72.11 2 UK Territory Diego Garcia Ms 7.7 (1) 1.5 (1)
2 (1)
* 5 – 2 1, 37, 63, 98
Archipelago Seychelles Mahe Island
(63)
117 AD1984 Selat Mentawai 0.18/97.95 2 Indonesia Off west coast 7.2 * * * 3 No information found on primary source 99 63
of Sumatra
118 6 Aug AD1988 Jamuna river, 25.149/ 2 Bangladesh Jamuna river, Ms 7.2 (1) * * 3 (1)
2 Two people killed and 30 missing due 2 1
Aricha 95.127 Aricha to a possible seiche on the Jamuna River
119 15 Feb AD1994 Southern − 4.96/104.3 2 Indonesia Southern M w 6.8 (68) * * 207 (40)
1 Indonesian Meteorological and Geophysical 39 1, 37, 40, 63
Sumatra Sumatra Agency states no tsunami was generated
120 4 Jun AD2000 Southern − 4.72/ 2 Indonesia Southern M w 7.9 (68) * * * 3 – – 68
Sumatra (68) 102.09 Sumatra
121 18 Jun AD2000 South Indian − 13.8/97.45 2 Australia Cocos Island M w 7.9 (1) 0.3 (1)
1 (1)
* 5 – 2 1, 37, 63, 68
Ocean (68)
122 13 Sep AD2002 Andaman sea 13.03/93.06 2 India Ariel Bay M w 6.5 (1, 68) * 3 (1)
2 (69)
5 – 2 1, 68, 69
Antarctica
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Ross Island and


Smith Island
(1) (1) (1) (1)
123 26 Dec AD2004 NW Sumatra 3.29/95.98 2 Indonesia, Sumatra and M w 9 50.9 997 227,898 5 – – 1, 60, 63
India and other other
14 countries
124 28 March Near Sumatra 2.08/97.1 2 Australia Cocos Island M w 8.7 (1, 44) 3 (1, 44)
16 (1) 10 (1) 5 – 2 1, 41, 44, 63
AD2005 Indonesia Simeulue,
Maldives Gun
Oman Salalah
125 10 Apr AD2005 Kepulauan − 1.64/99.6 2 Indonesia Padang M w 6.7 (1) 0.4 (1)
1 (1)
* 5 – 2 1, 41, 63
Mentawai
(68) (68)
126 24 Jul AD2005 Nicobar 7.9/92.1 2 India Nicobar Islands M w 7.2 * * * 4 – – 68
Islands (68)
127 12 Sep AD2007 Sumatra − 4.43/ 2 Australia Cocos Island M w 8.4 (1) 0.98 (1)
20 (1) * 5 – 24 1
101.36 Indonesia Padang
Oman Salalah
128 20 Feb AD2008 Semuele 2.78/95.97 2 Indonesia * M w 7.4 (68) * * * 5 – – 68
Island (68)
129 25 Feb AD2008 Sumatra − 2.48/99.97 2 Indonesia Padang M w 6.5 (1) 0.12 (1)
1 (1)
* 5 – 2 1
(1) (1)
130 10 Aug AD2009 Andaman 14.09/92.88 2 Thailand Off the Phuket M w 7.5 0.01 * * 5 – 24 1
Island
(1) (1) (1)
131 16 Aug AD2009 Sumatra − 1.47/99.49 2 Indonesia Padang M w 6.7 0.18 1 * 5 – 42 1

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193


132 30 Sep AD2009 Sumatra − 0.72/99.86 2 Indonesia Padang M w 7.5 (1) 0.27 (1)
1 (1)
* 5 – 43 1
(1) (1) (1)
133 6 Apr AD2010 Sumatra 2.3/97.13 2 Indonesia Sumatra M w 7.7 0.44 6 * 5 – 85 1
134 12 Jun AD2010 Little Nicobar 7.74/91.93 2 Sri Lanka Kutch (1) M w 7.5
(1)
0.03 (1)
1 (1)
* 5 – 86 1
Island
135 25 Oct AD2010 Sumatra –3.48/100.08 2 Indonesia Sumatra Mw 7.5 (1) 0.33 (1)
4 (1)
* 5 2 1

Note: Asterisk (*) indicates no information available.


Reference # and detail of primary and secondary sources for each tsunami referred to in columns 14 and 15:
1. National Geophysical Data Centre (NGDC) (2011). 2. National Earthquake Information Centre (NEIC) (1971 to present). 3. Nutalaya et al. (1985). 4. Cummins (2007). 5. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) (2011). 6. Seismological
Society of America (SSA) (1930). 7. New York Times (1930). 8. Bapat (1982). 9. Berninghausen (1966). 10. Murty and Rafiq (1991). 11. Naval Oceanographic Office (1968). 12. Ortiz and Bilham (2003). 13. Frank and Husain (1971). 14. Bilham (2004). 15.
Jordan (2008). 16. Bilham (1994). 17. Soloviev and Ferchev (1961). 18. Bilham (1998). 19. Danard and Murty (1989). 20. Latter (1969). 21. Lisitzin (1974). 22. Hough et al. (2005). 23. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
(1928–1986). 24. NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center-PTWC (2006) 25. Soloviev and Go (1974). 26. Heck (1947). 27. Gongxu et al. (1989). 28. Hebenstreit and Moustafa (1991). 29. Soetardjo et al. (1985). 30. Chong-Hua et al. (1985). 31. Anon.
(1909). 32. Soetadi (1962). 33. Kerr (1824). 34. Kvale (1955). 35. Iida et al. (1967). 36. International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) (1982). 37. Lander et al. (2003). 38. Soloviev et al. (1992). 39. Satake and Imamura (1995). 40. ITIC (1994). 41. ITIC
(2005). 42. NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center-PTWC (2009a). 43. NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center-PTWC (2009b). 44. Dominey-Howes et al. (2007). 45. Murty and Bapat (1999). 46. Logan (1887). 47. Smith (1843a). 48. Oldham (1882). 49.
Hirst (1763). 50. Wichmann (1918a). 51. Newcomb and McCann (1987). 52. Natawidjaja et al. (2006). 53. Zachariasen et al. (1999). 54. Estridge (1883). 55. Wichmann (1918b). 56. Oldham (1884). 57. Visser (1930). 58. Jhingran (1952). 59. Bilham et
al. (2005). 60. Lay et al. (2005). 61. Berninghausen (1969). 62. Simkin and Fiske (1983). 63. Rastogi and Jaiswal (2006). 64. Bendick and Bilham (1999). 65. Mathur (1998). 66. Macmurdo (1821). 67. Rastogi (2007). 68. Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory
(2010). 69. ITIC (2002). 70. Mallet (Reports for, 1852, 1853, 1854). 71. Milne (1911). 72. Davison (1921). 73. Royal Society of London (1881). 74. British Association for the Advancement of Science (BAAS) (1912). 75. Judd (1889). 76. Heidarzadeh et al.
(2008). 77. Robson (1933). 78. Pararas-Carayannis (2006). 79. Nakamura (1984). 80. Gulston (1763). 81. Verelst (1763). 82. Smith (1844). 83. Fergusson (1863). 84. Balakina (2006). 85. NOAA West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (2009a).
86. NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (2009b). 87. Hamzah et al. (2000). 88. Rao and Rao (1984). 89. Anon. (n.d.-a). 90. Anon. (n.d.-b). 91. Anon. (1827). 92. The Asiatic Society (n.d) The Journal of Asiatic Society of Bengal, Vol. 14, pp. 605. 93.
Mallet (1878). 94. Smith (1843b). 95. Evans and Wharton (1888). 96. Beer and Stagg (1946). 97. Pendse (1946). 98. Jaiswal et al. (2008). 99. Engdahl et al. (1998). 100. ITIC (1985). 101. Kumar and Achyuthan (2006). 102. Geiger (Translator) (1934).
103. Dahanayake and Kulasena (2008). 104. Jankaew et al. (2008). 105. Rajendran et al. (2010). 106. Monecke et al. (2008). 107. Manimaran and Chacko (2006). 108. Mörner et al. (2008). 109. Yawsangratt et al. (2011). 110. Fujino et al. (2009). 111.
Walker (1884). 112. Kunz et al. (2010). 113. Anon. (1897a). 114. Anon. (1897b). 115. Ganse and Nelson (1982). 116. Anon. (1907).

185
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Table 3
Database coding with detailed descriptors.

Parameter Description

Cause code 1 = unknown, 2 = earthquake, 3 = earthquake and landslide, 4 = volcano, 5 = meteorological


Max. water height (m) Maximum water height above sea level in metres
Validity 1 = erroneous entry, 2 = seiche in or disturbance of an inland water body, 3 = doubtful tsunami, 4 = probable tsunami, 5 = definite tsunami
Comments Relevant key information from references
Superscript number Superscript numbers following descriptions in the “Key Comments” column, refer to the reference listed beneath Table 2

and Kulasena, 2008). Dahanayake and Kulasena (2008) refer to a local (Fig. 3b). Most of the definite tsunamis reported after AD1900 are in-
historical document (Geiger, 1934) for a tsunami during that period. strumentally recorded, but the nine definite events prior to this have
The possibly large time gap between the first (38,000BC?) and second all been validated in the absence of instrumental records. For exam-
(3000–2000BC) events is important because it hints at the probability ple, the 10–11 February AD1797 event had already been validated
that more palaeotsunamis remain to be identified within the region's as a definite tsunami by both the NGDC and NTL, but we also obtained
geological record. Analysis of the events listed in Table 2 indicates that a clear description of the event and the devastation it caused on the
prior to the Christian era and from the early Christian era to AD1000, mainland and Batu Island of Indonesia (Heck, 1947; Berninghausen,
six and seven tsunamis were reported, respectively (Fig. 3a). Four tsu- 1966; Soloviev and Go, 1974; Hamzah et al., 2000).
namis are identified as occurring between AD1001 and AD1500, and In addition to the 119 definite to doubtful tsunamis, 20 were
one each during the 15th and 16th centuries. It is only from the 17th reported as seiches or disturbances of inland waters and six were er-
century onwards that evidence for tsunamis becomes more readily roneously reported as tsunamis. The events validated as a disturbance
identifiable. An analysis of tsunamis in different administrative periods of inland waters or only causing a seiche were either triggered by an
of the region indicates that before the Mughal (pre-AD1500), during the inland earthquake or by a low magnitude one at sea. Our validity as-
Mughal (AD1500–1756), through the British Empire (AD1757–1947) sessment indicates that the apparent tsunamis (e.g., 6 September
and in the post-British period (AD1948–2010), 16, 5, 83 and 31 tsu- AD1833, 14 August AD1918, 18 December AD1935, 21 December
namis are recorded, respectively (Fig. 3b). AD1951, 23 September AD1955) caused by earthquakes in China
In most cases the source of an event has been reported or identi-
fied. Only 16 out of the 135 purported tsunamis in Table 2 have no
recognised source. Of the remaining tsunamis, 77 (64%—most along
the Sunda Subduction Zone) originated in Indonesia, 10 (9%) in the
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, five each from China, Myanmar, the
east India coastline, and the west India coastline along with the
Makran Subduction Zone, four each from the Bay of Bengal and Ma-
laysia, two each from Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and one each from
the Chagos Archipelago and south Indian Ocean (see detail in
Table 2). The percentage of tsunamis that we report as originating
from the Indonesian region is less than the 80% inferred by Rastogi
and Jaiswal (2006). This is because we did not count all tsunamis
originating in Java, as some parts of the island lie outside of our
study region boundaries.
Of the 135 events listed in Table 2, 115 are reported to have been
generated by earthquakes, six by volcanic eruptions, two by earth-
quakes coupled with landslides, and two by meteorological processes.
We were unable to identify the cause of ten events from the source
documents (namely, 1500BC, 50BC–AD100, AD9–AD11, AD1524, 4
May AD1851, 19 August AD1868, 4 July AD1904, 16 March AD1917,
10 April AD1922 and 9 November AD1929).

5. Discussion

In our discussion, we address key aspects of our work including


the validity assessment of reported tsunamis, the geographical and
temporal distribution of events in the region, and the numerous prob-
lems we experienced in collecting data about events affecting the Bay
of Bengal.

5.1. Validity assessment

A validity assessment of the tsunamis provides us with the oppor-


tunity to categorise events from ‘definite’ through to a mistaken re-
cording (Table 3). After the validity assessment was completed, we
identified 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis and 51 doubtful
tsunamis. It is interesting to note that before AD1801 we can validate
only two definite tsunamis (Fig. 3a). During the periods AD1801– Fig. 3. Temporal distribution of reported tsunami events with assigned validity scores,
1900 and AD1901–2000 on the other hand, we can validate eight def- in the Indian Ocean region. (a) Historical events reported in the region before AD1801
inite tsunamis in each period, whereas after AD2000, 13 are identified by century, (b) distribution of reported tsunamis from AD1801 to AD2010 by decade.
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E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193 187

were actually seiches or turbulence in inland waters (Fig. 4). For ex- cyclone together with an associated sea surge (e.g., Frank and Husain,
ample, the 6 September AD1833 event was triggered by an earth- 1971; Danard and Murty, 1989).
quake in the Yunnan Province, China (Latitude 25.2°S and Longitude
103°E) and only generated a seiche in an inland lake (Gongxu et al., 5.2. Spatial and temporal distribution of events
1989). For the 9 November AD1929 event, the NGDC database
(2011) refers to Soloviev and Go (1974, p. 280), who state that “… Our statistical analysis indicates that the Indonesian archipelago is
with a calm sea, a suddenly advancing high roller with breakers capsized the most common source area for the reported tsunamis, accounting
a sloop, as a result of which six people drowned. The cause of the wave is for 63% of all events within our study area. This source region also con-
unknown. It was the ebb tide phase. No earthquake was felt, and the tributed 56% of reported definite and probable tsunamis in the Indian
nearest seismograph at Medan did not register anything unusual”. No Ocean (see detail in Table 2 and Fig. 4). India is the country with the
other document contains a source location (e.g., Hamzah et al., next highest percentage of definite and probable tsunamis (15%). Other
2000) for any tsunami on that date. We therefore considered this affected countries (based on a decreasing number of events) include
event to be a seiche (Validity 2) of unknown cause. Additionally, Sri Lanka, Australia, the Maldives, Seychelles, Thailand, Malaysia, Myan-
our validity assessment for reported tsunamis from the east coast of mar, Bangladesh, Oman, Yemen, Somalia, Tanzania, Kenya and South
India also suggests that those events were actually seiche or errone- Africa.
ously reported (see Table 2 and Fig. 4). Before AD1801, the wider study region was affected by only three
Some events such as those on the 19 May AD1886 and 21 March definite or probable tsunamis. These occurred on 30 November
AD1888 have been validated as erroneously reported by the sole AD1770, 2 April AD1762 and 10 February AD1797. The AD1762
source document (NTL, 2010). Latter (1969) listed the 9 January event originated from the Arakan Subduction Zone (Fig. 2)
AD1876 event as a natural disaster caused by a tsunami of seismic or- (Cummins, 2007) and affected several countries including Bangla-
igin. However, Frank and Husain (1971) listed the same event as one desh, India and Myanmar (Hirst, 1763; Oldham, 1882). Both the
of the deadliest tropical cyclones in history, locally known as the AD1770 and AD1797 events originated from Sumatra (Sunda Subduc-
‘Bakerganj Cyclone’, with a water surge of 40 ft that impacted coastal tion Zone) and their impacts were limited to Sumatra and the Batu
Bangladesh. Therefore, we consider this event to have been a tropical Islands of Indonesia (Heck, 1947; NGDC, 2011). During the 1800s,

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of source locations of reported tsunamis affecting the northern Indian Ocean, particularly the northern Bay of Bengal (the validity assessment includes
source locations from definite to erroneously reported tsunamis).
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188 E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193

the Indian Ocean region was affected by eight definite tsunamis. Of Apart from reported tsunamis originating from the Bay of Bengal
these, the 19 August AD1868 event originated from the Andaman (i.e., 31 December AD1881, 26 June AD1941) or the Andaman and
Islands (Andaman Trench) and impacted the area surrounding Port Nicobar Islands (i.e., 31 October AD1847, 19 August AD1868), the
Blair (Murty and Rafiq, 1991). The remaining events originated east coast of India (Fig. 5) was severely devastated by the catastrophic
from, and affected, the Indonesian coastline with the exception of Krakatau eruption on the 27 August AD1883 and by the 2004 IOT. A
the 26 August AD1883 tsunami, which affected Indonesia, India, the maximum 2 m tsunami was recorded on the coast at Chennai, associ-
Arabian Peninsula, the west coast of Australia and several other coun- ated with the AD1883 Krakatau volcano tsunami (NGDC, 2011),
tries (Berninghausen, 1966; Simkin and Fiske, 1983). After AD1901, whilst the 2004 IOT killed 16,269 people along the Indian coastline
21 definite tsunamis were reported. The 2004 IOT was the most (Fig. 5). Data suggest that the region is vulnerable to tsunamis ema-
fatal and damaging, with a maximum wave height of 50.90 m, and nating from the Indonesian region.
an estimated death toll of 297,248 in 16 countries (NGDC, 2011). The Poisson probability analysis indicates that the Bangladesh and
Poisson probability calculations were conducted on the region's Myanmar coasts have a much lower risk with a probability of 0.99%
tsunami database to estimate the occurrence of tsunamis in the fu- per year and 63% per century. This is markedly lower than
ture. Based on the reported events with earthquake magnitude 7 or Cummins' (2007) prediction of an 8.5 magnitude tsunamigenic earth-
more with validity scores of 4 and 5 (probable and definite tsunamis quake from the Arakan Subduction Zone occurring once in a century.
respectively), the probability of one or more such events affecting The occurrences of definite tsunamis on either the Bangladesh, Indian
the whole region is 18% per year and 100% in a century (Table 4). or Myanmar coasts are 3% and 95% per year, and per century, respec-
The probability of the occurrence of a tsunami with a wave height tively, whilst the occurrences of definite and probable tsunamis in the
>2 m is 3% in any one year and 93% in a century. Tsunamis with a same area and period are 5% and 99%, respectively (Table 4).
>1 m wave height however, have an occurrence probability of 5%
per year and 100% per century. However, the occurrence of a likely 5.4. Cross-checking
definite tsunami in the whole region is 10% in any given year and
99.99% in a century (Table 4). In order to validate each event listed within our database, we
cross-checked our source documents to identify any inconsistencies
5.3. Tsunamis in the northern Bay of Bengal and contradictions in the description of an event. Similar strategies
have been effectively used to develop historical and palaeotsunami
We identified the definite and probable tsunamis that affected the databases for Australia (Dominey-Howes, 2007), New Zealand (Goff
northern end of the Bay of Bengal, namely Bangladesh, India and et al., 2010), Australasia (Goff and Dominey-Howes, 2009) and the
Myanmar. Fifteen events (event #s 7, 8, 22, 30 43, 45, 56, 59, 61, 93, South China Sea (Lau et al., 2010). We noted incorrect and incomplete
103, 104, 122, 123 and 126) affected at least one of these countries, citations, differences in dating of an event between different sources,
but of these reported tsunamis, only the 2 April AD1762 affected all contradictory descriptions, probable exaggerations of casualties and
three countries prior to the 2004 IOT (Fig. 5). Interestingly, no other issues related to proposed earthquake magnitudes.
tsunami since AD1762 has affected the Bangladesh coast—at least
none that we can find evidence for. The Myanmar coast on the 5.4.1. Incorrect and incomplete citations
other hand was impacted by another devastating historical tsunami We observed incorrect and incomplete citations whilst recording
on 5 May AD1930 (Fig. 5). The ancient seaport of Pegu was reportedly data from our source documents. For example, for the AD1984
devastated and 500 people killed (Nutalaya et al., 1985; CRED, 2011; event—a relatively recent tsunami, Rastogi and Jaiswal (2006) refer
NGDC, 2011). to Engdahl et al. (1998) without actually including them in their ref-
The east coast of India (e.g., Chennai (previously Madras), erence list. However, when cross-checked, the Engdahl et al. (1998)
Nagapatnum and Visakhapatnam), at the northern end of the Bay of source did not actually contain any information about that event.
Bengal (Fig. 5), has been affected by several historical tsunamis. Equally, references cited in the NGDC database (2011) should not

Table 4
Probability of northern Indian Ocean region being affected by tsunamis, calculated from the occurrence of historical tsunamis in the region using Poisson probability calculations
(time period AD1710 to AD2010).

Category Reported tsunami events # of Probability of having Probability of having


reported one or more such one or more such
events event in a year event in 100 years

1. Reported events with earthquake magnitude 22, 23, 24, 28, 30, 34, 35, 36, 37, 41, 43, 45, 47, 50, 51, 52, 53, 56, 59, 59 0.1779 (=18%) 1 (=100%)
7 or more with validity scores 4, 5 (probable 60, 61, 71, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 101, 102, 103,
and definite tsunamis) 104, 107, 109, 113, 114, 116, 117, 118, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125,
126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 132, 133, 134, 135
2. Reported definite tsunamis 22, 24, 35, 41, 50, 51, 52, 56, 59, 61, 78, 79, 93, 103, 104, 115, 116, 31 0.0978 (=10%) 0.9999 (=99.99%)
121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135
3. Reported events that affected either 22, 30, 43, 45, 56, 59, 61, 93, 103, 104, 122, 123, 126 13 0.0422 (=4.2%) 0.9868 (=99%)
Bangladesh, India or Myanmar with validity
scores 4, 5 (probable and definite tsunamis)
4. Reported definite tsunamis that affected either 22, 93, 123 3 0.0099 (=0.99%) 0.6321 (=63%)
Bangladesh or Myanmar coast
5. Reported definite tsunami events that affected 22, 56, 59, 61, 93, 103, 104, 122, 123 9 0.0294 (=3%) 0.9502 (=95%)
either Bangladesh, India or Myanmar
6. Reported tsunamis with recorded wave 25, 50, 56, 61, 78, 92, 123, 124 8 0.0262 (=3%) 0.9305 (=93%)
heights of >2 m
7. Reported tsunamis with recorded wave 22, 25, 39, 47, 50, 56, 59, 61, 78, 79, 92, 94, 108, 116, 123, 124 16 0.0517 (=5%) 0.9951 (99.5%)
heights of >1 m
8. Reported events with run-up heights of > 1 m 22, 47, 50, 56, 59, 61, 78, 79, 94, 116, 123, 124 12 0.0390 (=4%) 0.9816 (=98%)
and validity scores 4, 5 (probable and definite
tsunamis)

Note: Statistical analysis was carried out on the most complete time series of events between AD1710 and AD2010 because of the lack of events prior to AD1710.
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E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193 189

Fig. 5. Source regions and affected areas of six major tsunamis in the northern Bay of Bengal.

be taken at face value because during our data collection period (Feb- Howes et al., 2007). Given the antiquity of this event, we do not consid-
ruary 2010–April 2011) we found a number of instances where en- er this to be two separate events (since the different sources describe
tries were edited and new references added. This is entirely the same event—they just list different dates). There is no controversy
acceptable since it is a live document, but it requires the archivist to surrounding the date of the 2 April AD1762 tsunami, although Murty
repeatedly refer back to the database in order to confirm the validity and Rafiq (1991) recorded this event as the 12 April AD1762. Some au-
of individual entries and to check for new events that may have been thors (e.g., Rastogi and Jaiswal, 2006; Rastogi, 2007) listed the 5 January
added to the database. For example, we used the events of 6 Septem- and 5–6 January AD1843 events as two separate entries. However, we
ber AD1833, 14 August AD1918, 18 December AD1935, 21 December can confirm that this is the same tsunami that took place over a two-
AD1951, 23 September AD1955 cited in the NGDC database (2011), day period (e.g., Heck, 1947; Berninghausen, 1966; Newcomb and
but by the time we consulted their primary source (Gongxu et al., McCann, 1987; Hamzah et al., 2000), with one tsunami occurring
1989), the secondary source (i.e., NGDC, 2011) had deleted the en- around midnight on the 5th January with waves arriving on both the
tries from its database. Additionally, when we started developing 5th and 6th January (Oldham, 1882). For the 26 July AD1914 entry,
our database, we found that NGDC included the AD1737 event as a the NGDC (2011) cited Soloviev and Go (1974) for their source. Howev-
tsunami but when we searched again in April 2011, the NGDC had de- er, the original reference (Soloviev and Go, 1974) cites this event as oc-
leted this event from its list. Thus this data source is dynamic. curring on the 26 July AD1915. The timing has therefore been corrected
The catalogue by Oldham (1882) uses many original references, and no event number has been assigned for the NGDC's erroneous
but in several cases the citations are incomplete. For example, for entry.
the 16 February AD1861 event, Oldham (1882) refers to the Journal
of the Asiatic Society of Bengal without any date, volume and page 5.4.3. Contradictory descriptions: earthquake, tsunami and cyclone
number, and for the 24 August AD1858 tsunami, he refers to the Previously published tsunami catalogues sometimes provided
Friend of India, a weekly magazine, without any date or issue number. contradictory descriptions for the same event as an earthquake, a tsu-
We have therefore been unable to consult these original sources. nami or a cyclone. For example, Murty and Rafiq (1991) recorded the
AD1737 event as a tsunami in the Hoogli River caused by an earth-
5.4.2. Difference in dating for the same event quake near Kolkata (formerly Calcutta). This event was also listed as
In a number of cases, different dates have been reported for the same an earthquake by Milne (1911) who referred to data in Oldham
event. We found two dates for the event of either 325BC (Lisitzin, 1974; (1882). However, Oldham (1882) reported that this event related to
Pararas-Carayannis, 2006) or 326BC (Murty and Bapat, 1999; Dominey- an earthquake and a tropical cyclone occurring at the same time.
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190 E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193

Bilham (1994) consulted original British library documents and con- difficult because of the varying ages of written records in countries
ducted field investigations of the AD1737 event and concluded that surrounding the bay. For example, one of the earliest records of a his-
the event was in fact, a cyclone. The AD1876 event has been described torical tsunami goes back to 3000–2000BC in Sri Lanka (Geiger, 1934;
as a tsunami originating from the Andaman Sea (Latter, 1969). It was Dahanayake and Kulasena, 2008), whilst on the Indian coastline the
however also known as the ‘Bakergonj tropical cyclone’ of AD1876 earliest reported tsunami goes back to 1500BC based on Mahabharata
(Danard and Murty, 1989) with a central pressure of 930 mb (Frank epic 1 (Manimaran and Chacko, 2006). However, whilst in India writ-
and Husain, 1971). The 26 June AD1941 event killed 5000 people ten records extend back some 2000 years or so (Tummala, 1996),
and both the Indian media and Bapat (1982) attributed this to a cy- they rarely deal with natural hazards (e.g., tsunamis, earthquakes, cy-
clone. It is now evident that the event was a tsunami generated with- clones, floods, etc.) and if they do the information is often incorrect. A
in the Andaman Sea (e.g., Jhingran, 1952; Murty and Rafiq, 1991; good example of this is the misleading recording of an AD1737 cy-
Dominey-Howes et al., 2007; NGDC, 2011). For the 20 February clone as an earthquake (Bilham, 1994; Dominey-Howes et al., 2007).
AD2008 event, the NTL (2010) indicated that this tsunami was caused Yawsangratt et al. (2011) examined deposits at various coastal
by an explosion as well as providing a description of an earthquake of sites of Phang Nga Province, Thailand, a region heavily affected by
magnitude Mw 7.4. Following discussions with the Novosibirsk Tsu- the 2004 IOT, for the presence of palaeotsunami events. Whilst they
nami Laboratory (NTL) about this unusual description, it has now discovered a possible late Holocene palaeotsunami deposit, two shells
been confirmed that the previously reported earthquake source was from the unit yielded 14C ages of >43,000BP (Yawsangratt et al.,
an error. 2011). The shell dates are unlikely to represent the age of the event
and are most likely reworked. Whilst more work needs to be carried
5.4.4. Exaggeration of casualty numbers out to better determine the age of this event, Yawsangratt et al.
Either exaggerating or understating the number of casualties asso- (2011) infer a Holocene age and tentatively suggest that it may corre-
ciated with an event is a common error in disaster data reporting late with an event that occurred about 600 years ago (Jankaew et al.,
(CRED, 2011). For the 11 October AD1737 event, both Oldham 2008).
(1882) and Murty and Rafiq (1991) recorded 300,000 casualties, Another early event in the region, the 325BC tsunami, has primar-
whereas Bilham (1994) and Dominey-Howes et al. (2007) reported ily been reported in the travel history of Alexander the Great's
only 3000. Bilham (1994) analysed historical documents from local Maccedonian fleet (Lisitzin, 1974), which is not a local written source.
sources showing that the population in Kolkata was less than Kale et al. (1996) refer to AD1700 as a limit between historical and
20,000 in AD1737 and suggested that a number of 3000 deaths palaeofloods in India. The Andaman region by contrast, has a written
were more likely, an interpretation that seemed reasonable to record of tsunamis that extends back just 260 years (Kunz et al.,
Dominey-Howes et al. (2007). Another example is the 16 February 2007). Kumar and Achyuthan (2006) listed palaeotsunamis in the In-
AD1861 event for which the NGDC (2011) reported 1105 deaths, dian Ocean but did not provide any timeline between historical and
whilst Hamzah et al. (2000) mention just 50 deaths. Murty and palaeotsunamis and also included recent instrumentally recorded
Rafiq (1991) reported a tsunami in AD1935 near Quetta, indicating tsunami events in the list of palaeotsunamis for that region. The
some agitation in the local seas but also recording 30,000 casualties, point is that if individual countries are considered, we might have
whereas other sources such as Rastogi and Jaiswal (2006) and an event that is a palaeotsunami event in one country and a historical
Jaiswal et al. (2008) did not mention any deaths at all. event in a neighbouring country, a situation recently termed a ‘hybrid
tsunami’ (Goff et al., 2010). As such, care must be taken when consid-
5.4.5. Differences in magnitude of earthquakes ering events that may have affected different regions.
The size of an earthquake is commonly defined by its magnitude. Based upon sedimentary evidence, Jankaew et al. (2008) docu-
Here, we use two measurement scales, Ms and Mw (see Table 2). Surface mented one palaeotsunami event around 800BC in Thailand.
wave or Ms (Gutenberg, 1945), a commonly used magnitude, is based Dahanayake and Kulasena (2008) primarily refer to local historical
on the ground amplitudes of surface-waves with intervals of approxi- evidence (e.g., Geiger, 1934), for the tsunami occurrence between
mately 17–23 s at distances between 15° and 30°. Alternatively, Mw, a 3000 and 2000BC in Sri Lanka, although they later conducted geolog-
logarithmic measure of earthquake size (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979), ical investigations in southern Sri Lanka to validate the event. The tsu-
is a more modern earthquake magnitude scale and is based on the seis- nami events of 800BC and AD1300–1450 have been identified using
mic moment (M0) or the amount of energy released by an earthquake. sedimentary evidence and radiocarbon dating on the coast of Thai-
Mw is available for recent strong earthquakes. When an event we list land (Jankaew et al., 2008). Monecke et al. (2008) and Kunz et al.
was generated by an earthquake, we record the magnitude listed in (2010) discovered another two palaeotsunami events, which oc-
the original source documents. We note that many tsunami catalogues curred during the periods AD780–AD900, and AD1000 respectively,
did not list the earthquake Ms or Mw. Further, on occasions when the based on sediment analysis.
magnitude is recorded, there are often differences in the stated magni-
tude. For example, for the AD1967 event, three magnitudes were 7. Questions arising and recommendations for further work
recorded, Ms 6.1 (NGDC, 2011), Ms 6.5 (Hamzah et al., 2000) and Mw
7.5 (NTL, 2010). Similarly, for the 3 June AD1909 event, three different During collection and analysis of our database, two key questions
magnitudes, Ms 7.6, Ms 7.3 and Mw 7.2 were reported by the same have arisen:
three references cited above. In addition to these events, differences in
(1) Are events that are listed in different source documents actual-
earthquake magnitudes were also reported for other tsunamis, namely,
ly evidence for a single event affecting a wider region? For ex-
the AD1797, 24 November AD1833, 31 December AD1881, 4 April
ample, from our new database we note that on 16 February
AD1905, 4 January AD1907, 3 June AD1909, 25 June AD1914, 25 Sep-
AD1861, a tsunami struck southwest Sumatra, Indonesia
tember AD1931, 26 June AD1941, 16 December AD1963 and 12 April
(Heck, 1947; Berninghausen, 1966; Newcomb and McCann,
AD1967 events.
1987; Hamzah et al., 2000). Similarly, Oldham (1882) recorded
an earthquake in Penang, Malaysia, occurring on the same day,
6. Palaeotsunamis in the Bay of Bengal

A palaeotsunami is defined as a tsunami occurring before the his- 1


The Mahabharata is a classical Sanskrit epic of India, probably composed between
torical record of a region begins (Goff et al., 2010). Distinguishing be- 200BC and AD200. It is the foremost source concerning classical Indian civilisation (Ra-
tween a historical and a palaeotsunami for the Bay of Bengal region is jagopalachari, 1970).
Author's personal copy

E. Alam et al. / Earth-Science Reviews 114 (2012) 175–193 191

16 February AD1861 and reported very unusual sea turbulence Acknowledgements


during calm weather, and that tank water rose one foot above
its normal level in Kolkata. Oldham (1882) referred to the Funding for this work via Strategic Research Priority Fund grant
Friend of India and the Journal of Asiatic Society of Bengal (SPF01/PS16502) awarded to Dominey-Howes by the University of
without providing any year or volume number, and we were New South Wales is gratefully acknowledged. Thanks to Shiquan
unable to find and consult this incomplete citation. A thorough Ren at the School of BEES, UNSW for teaching Poisson probability cal-
search of the above mentioned documents should be undertak- culation to Edris Alam. Thanks to Professor McAdoo and an anony-
en to understand the magnitude of the 16 February AD1861 mous reviewer for their valuable comments on an earlier version of
event and assess whether it simultaneously affected the coasts this paper. The authors would like to acknowledge support received
of Indonesia, Malaysia and India. from Disaster Action Development Organization (DADO), Bangladesh,
(2) From our earliest reported tsunami at 38,000BC(?) to AD1800— for data collection in Bangladesh.
an interval of nearly 40,000 years, 21 tsunamis are reported in
our database, whilst from AD1801 to AD2010, a period of only
210 years, 109 tsunamis are reported (Table 2). However, References
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