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Multi-hazard Earthquake-Tsunami Structural Fragility Assessment


Framework

Conference Paper · August 2019


DOI: 10.22725/ICASP13.244

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13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

Multi-hazard Earthquake-Tsunami Structural Fragility Assessment


Framework

Mohammad S. Alam
Graduate Student Researcher, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA, 97331
Andre R. Barbosa
Associate Professor, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA, 97331
Michael H. Scott
Professor, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR, USA, 97331
Daniel T. Cox
Professor, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA, 97331
John W. van de Lindt
Professor, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA, 80523

ABSTRACT:

A probabilistic multi-hazard earthquake-tsunami fragility assessment framework is presented, which ac-


counts for the effect of accumulated damage on the structure due to earthquake loading on its subse-
quent tsunami response. The fragility assessment framework involves simulating structural response
using advanced three dimensional (3D) nonlinear finite-element structural model subjected to sequen-
tial earthquake-tsunami loading at multiple seismic and tsunami intensity levels, using back to back
nonlinear response history analyses (NRHA) and nonlinear static pushover (NSP) analyses. A modern
earthquake-tsunami code designed four story reinforced concrete (RC) special moment resisting frame
(SMRF) building is used as an application example to illustrate the proposed framework. Results indicate
that the effect of accumulated damage due to earthquake loading is more pronounced in reducing the stiff-
ness of the structure compared to the reduction in structural capacity. Moreover, the tsunami structural
capacity required to achieve a given probability of damage exceedance decreases with increasing seismic
intensity, especially at lower damage states.

Chile (2010), and Japan (2011). With respect to


these extreme events, the majority of the devasta-
1. INTRODUCTION tion was sustained along the coastline, highlighting
Catastrophic events such as the Japan Tohoku the importance of the damage produced by earth-
Earthquake and Tsunami (2011) raised the global quake ground shaking and the following tsunami
awareness for the need to understand the response inundation.
of communities and the built environment to multi-
hazard extreme events. Extreme events that pro- Following the recent catastrophic tsunami events,
duced significant damage and loss of life over the many empirical fragility functions (Peiris, 2006;
last two decades include the following earthquake Charvet et al., 2014; Suppasri et al., 2015) have
and tsunamis: Indian Ocean (2004), Samoa (2009), been developed to assess the performance of differ-

1
13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

ent building classes based on post-tsunami survey damage. The study presented multi-hazard interac-
of damaged structures. These functions are pre- tion diagram that relate earthquake and tsunami in-
sented solely as tsunami fragility functions in the tensity measures (IMs) to bridge damage, which re-
literature, with the assumptions that earthquake in- veals that the effect of damage due to of earthquake
duced damage are minimal compared to tsunami loading on bridge systems decreases the resistance
induced damage. Though the validity of this as- to subsequent tsunami loading.
sumption is questionable, the practice continues Based on the literature review, it is evident that,
since it is not easy to distinguish between earth- at present, there is a lack of studies that system-
quake and tsunami damage sustained by a structure atically evaluate the effect of accumulated dam-
during post-tsunami survey. Significant advances age due to earthquake ground shaking on the in-
have also been made recently in analytical tsunami creased vulnerability of structures under subse-
fragility function development (Attary et al., 2017; quent tsunami inundation in a probabilistic man-
Petrone et al., 2017; Alam et al., 2018), specifically ner. To address this gap, this study presents a
for far-field tsunamis, where the response and dam- probabilistic framework to develop physics based
age of pristine structure subjected to tsunami load- multi-hazard earthquake-tsunami fragility func-
ing is simulated through numerical simulations. tions, which can be used as a tool to assess struc-
tural risk and associated losses for structures vul-
At present, there are only a few studies (Park nerable to near-field tsunamis. A four story re-
et al., 2012; Latcharote, 2015; Carey et al., 2018) inforced concrete (RC) special moment resisting
in the literature that evaluated structural perfor- frame building (SMRF) designed per ASCE/SEI
mance under sequential earthquake shaking and 7-16 (ASCE, 2016) and ACI 318-14 (ACI, 2014)
tsunami inundation hazard. Park et al. (2012) de- is used as an application example to illustrate the
veloped collapse fragility functions for a two-story proposed multi-hazard fragility assessment frame-
timber building subjected to sequential earthquake- work.
tsunami loading in a two phase simulation per-
formed at two seismic intensity levels. In the 2. M ULTI - HAZARD F RAGILITY A SSESSMENT
first phase, nonlinear response history analyses F RAMEWORK
(NRHA) were performed using an equivalent sin- The multi-hazard fragility assessment involves as-
gle degree of freedom (SDOF) model of the tim- sessing the response, represented by an engineer-
ber building. In the second phase, tsunami re- ing demand parameter (EDP), of the finite ele-
sponse of the damaged SDOF model was evalu- ment model (FEM) of the structure to sequential
ated through nonlinear static pushover (NSP) anal- earthquake-tsunami loading at several seismic and
yses for different inundation levels. The study ob- tsunami intensity levels, characterized by hazard
served that tsunami inundation depths required to intensity measures (IM). In this study, peak inter-
collapse the assessed light-frame timber building story drift ratio (PIDR) is used as the EDP and spec-
decreased with increase in the seismic intensity tral acceleration at the fundamental period of vi-
of the preceding earthquakes. Latcharote (2015) bration Sa (T1 ) and specific momentum flux (hu2 ),
performed sequential NRHA analyses to simulate which includes information on tsunami inundation
the earthquake-tsunami response of a six-story re- depth h and flow velocity u, are used as seismic
inforced concrete (RC) wall-frame structure and and tsunami IM, respectively. An advanced three-
monitored damage of beam, column, and structural dimensional (3D) nonlinear FEM of the structure is
wall. The study found that damage accumulates in developed first in OpenSees to perform sequential
structural members during sequential earthquake- earthquake-tsunami analyses. Since the uncertain-
tsunami loading. Recently, Carey et al. (2018) ties associated with both the hazards (ground mo-
developed a bridge modeling approach, which in- tion (GM) record-to-record (RTR) variability and
cludes soil-foundation-structure interaction effects, tsunami inundation depth-to-depth (HTH) variabil-
to quantify sequential earthquake-tsunami induced ity) for a given intensity is of several fold mag-

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13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

nitude higher than that associated with model pa- where ρs = fluid density, Cd = drag coef-
rameter uncertainties, RTR and HTH variability are ficient for the building, B = overall build-
explicitly considered in this framework by treat- ing width perpendicular to the flow direc-
ing those hazard intensities as random variables, tion, h = tsunami inundation depth above the
whereas all the model parameters and geometry are grade level, u = tsunami flow velocity at build-
considered deterministic and set to their expected ing site, and Ccx = closure coefficient, which
values. is equal to 1.0 if no openings in the struc-
ture, perpendicular to the flow direction, are
2.1. Analysis framework present. Following ASCE (2016) recommen-
The sequential earthquake-tsunami analyses are
dation, Ccx = 0.7 is used in this study.
performed in three stages:
(1) In the first stage, NRHA of the advanced Throughout the analysis stages, PIDR and base
3D FEM under earthquake GM is performed. shear response of the structure are monitored.
To perform NRHA, the TRBDF2 integrator Base shear response is converted to equivalent hu2 ,
object with a maximum analysis time step which is used as the tsunami IM.
of 0.002 second is used in OpenSees. The
2.2. Fragility Assessment Framework
Krylov-Newton alogrithm is used to solve the The proposed fragility assessment framework is
nonlinear system of equilibrium equations at an extension of the framework developed in Alam
each time step. The multiple-stripe analy- et al. (2018) for far-field tsunamis. The framework
sis (MSA) approach is adopted to perform consists of performing the following steps:
NRHA. In this study, six seismic IM levels are
considered. (1) In step 1, multiple realizations of tsunami
demand in terms of hu2 are generated. To
(2) In the second stage, the FEM is prepared for this end, at first, a suite of inundation depth
tsunami loading with its final state from the hi is randomly generated such that hi ∈ h ∼
GM as the initial condition. To eliminate any Uni f [0, hmax ], where hmax is the maximum
structural vibration in the FEM, a transient plausible inundation depth at the building site.
analysis is performed for 10 seconds with ficti- Then, for each hi , a suite of velocity values
tiously high equivalent viscous damping ratio ui, j is randomly generated such that ui, j ∈ u ∼
of 30%. Uni f [0,Ui,max ]. The maximum√ velocity ui,max
(3) In the third stage, multiple NSP analysis are is constrained to (Ui,max = Fr g.hi ) Froude
performed with tsunami hydrodynamic load- number Fr , which is equal to 2.0 in this study.
ing applied as uniformly distributed load on Finally, for each (hi , ui, j ) pair, the tsunami de-
the columns of the structure in onshore direc- mand intensity imi, j is computed as hi u2i, j .
tion irrespective of the leaning position of the
(2) In step 2, for a damage state dsk , and for
damaged structure. In this study, six tsunami
the given inundation depth hi , the value of
h levels up to third story roof level are consid-
the peak structural capacity IMcap,i,dsk is in-
ered, with minimum inundation being consid-
terpolated from the multiple tsunami capac-
ered at mid-height of ground story. Though,
ity curves corresponding to different h, which
other tsunami forces such as hydrostatic, buoy-
are obtained during the stage 3 of the analysis
ancy forces, and debris impact and damming
framework.
forces can induce great damage in structures,
those forces are not considered herein.The (3) In step 3, the demand computed in step 1 is
overall tsunami hydrodynamic force Fdx ap- compared against the structural capacity com-
plied to the structure is given as (ASCE, 2016) puted in step2, to compute the failure indica-
1 1 if imi, j > IMcap,i,dsk
Fdx = ρsCd Ccx B(hu2 ), (1) tor Yi, j,dsk =
2 0 Otherwise

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13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

Steps 1–3 are repeated until all hi and ui, j in North-South (N-S) direction and 6.1 m long in
combinations are exhausted for each sequen- East-West (E-W) direction. The lateral load resist-
tial NRHA-NSP analysis. ing system consists of SMRFs in both the N-S and
E-W directions. Mat or spread footings are envi-
(4) Finally, parameterized fragility functions are sioned for the foundation system of the building,
developed with Yi, j,dsk data using the logistic which is founded on a site class D soil (NEHRP).
generalized linear model (GLM). The CDF of All columns are 76 cm x 76 cm. Level-2 beams are
event {IMEQcap > imEQ ∩ IMT SUcap ≤ imT SU } 60 cm x 86 cm, where as beams used in upper sto-
conditional on a damage state dsk and a set of ries are 60 cm x 76 cm.
basic random variables X can be computed as:
3.2. Numerical model
P[IMEQcap > imEQ ∩IMT SUcap ≤ imT SU |dsk , X] An advanced 3D FEM scheme for the application
exp (g[X]) example building is developed in OpenSees. For
= (2) columns and beams, material nonlinearity and geo-
1+exp (g[X])
metric nonlinearity such as P−∆ effects are consid-
where IMEQcap and IMT SUcap represent struc- ered. Columns are modeled using an enhanced ver-
tural capacity in terms of IM for earthquake sion of the distributed plasticity force-based fiber-
and tsunami loading, respectively. Eq. (2) pro- section element by (Scott and Fenves, 2006), which
vides the joint probability of event where a allows for the nonlinear fiber sections assigned on
given dsk is not exceeded due to earthquake the element interior contrary to the elastic interior
but exceeded due to subsequent tsunami effect. described in original publication. Thus, moment-
In this study, RTR of ground motions and HTH axial load interactions are explicitly considered in
variability of tsunami inundation constitute the all columns. The plastic hinge length L p was de-
X vector. fined using the empirically validated relationship
provided in Paulay and Priestley (1992). The uni-
3. A PPLICATION E XAMPLE axial stress-strain response of concrete fibers are
3.1. Description of Application Example simulated using Scott et al. (1982) (Concrete02)
A newly designed four-story RC office building, and for reinforcing steel a bilinear stress-strain rela-
designed following ACI 318-14 (ACI, 2014) and tionship (Steel02) with kinematic hardening ratio of
considering seismic and tsunami loading as per 0.01 is used. The confinement effects are accounted
ASCE/SEI 7-16 (ASCE, 2016), is utilized as an ap- for in the definition of the concrete stress-strain re-
plication example. Fig. 1 shows the overview of the sponse by the Karthik and Mander (2010) confining
the site and elevation view of an exterior frame in model. To capture column shear failures, nonlinear
the E-W direction. The building is located close to zero-length shear springs are modeled at both ends
the shoreline of the Pacific coast at Seaside, Ore- of columns, near beam-column joints. For details
gon, USA. The building site is located in a high on the shear spring models, see Alam et al. (2018).
seismic zone as well as within the tsunami inun- Beams are modeled using force-based finite-
dation zone in the event of a 2500 year maximum length plastic hinge (FLPH) beam-column element
considered tsunami (MCT). The design spectral ac- (Scott and Fenves, 2006) together with a phe-
celeration ordinates SDS and SD1 are 0.87g and nomenological hinge model with deterioration rules
0.77g at the site, respectively, as per the Contermi- developed by Haselton et al. (2016). This empirical
nous U.S.2014 (v4.1.1) edition of the seismic haz- model is used to define the moment-rotation rela-
ard map. ASCE 7-16 compatible tsunami design tionship of the plastic hinge region. The model’s
IMs, h of 10.8 m, u of 7.2 m/s, and hu2 of 159.4 monotonic and hysteretic degradation rules allow to
m3 /s2 corresponding to MCT are obtained from capture both post-peak in-cycle degradation, com-
site-specific tsunami hazard analysis performed in bined with cyclic deterioration. A L p = L/6 (Scott
Park et al. (2017). The typical bays are 9.15 m long and Ryan, 2013) is utilized for beams, which does

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13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

[a] [b]
Figure 1: Application example: (a) overview of the building location, (b) elevation of an exterior frame in the
E-W direction. All dimensions are in meters.

not correspond to physical plastic hinge length, spectra (CS) compatible GMs are selected for six
but allows for perfect transformation of moment- IM levels, corresponding to the Sa (T1 , ξ = 5%) ex-
rotation relationship to moment-curvature. The ef- ceedance probabilities of 10% in 50 years, 5% in 50
fective width of the flanged beam section is deter- years, 2% in 50 years, 1% in 50 years, 0.67% in 50
mined in accordance with ACI 318-14 (ACI, 2014). years, and 0.5% in 50 years, using the GM selec-
Beam-column joints are modeled using partially tion algorithm by Baker and Lee (2018). Seismic
rigid-end offsets, following ATC-72-1 (PEER/ATC, hazard curves and deaggregation results of Sa (T1 )
2010) recommendations. are obtained from USGS unified hazard tools us-
Floor masses are lumped at beam-column joints. ing the Conterminous U.S.2014 (v4.1.1) edition of
Gravity loads are assigned as uniformly distributed the seismic hazard map for NEHRP site class D.
loading in beams. Rayleigh damping proportional T1 = 0.8 second, which corresponds to the geomet-
to mass and current stiffness is assigned to the FEM ric mean of the first mode period of vibration of the
considering 2% equivalent damping at the funda- two translational modes, is used for GM selection.
mental period T1 and at the period correspond- In the second step, from the large pool of selected
ing to achieving 90% seismic mass participation. CS compatible GMs, eleven ground motions are se-
Eigen analyses of the 3D FEM was performed, lected at each IM level such that they also satisfy
which revealed that 90% seismic mass partition the duration conditional distribution function target
was achieved with first five vibration modes.The as well. In this study, Ds5−75 is used as an IM to
first three period of vibration are: TN−S = 0.86 s, represent GM duration, whichRrepresents the inter-
TE−W = 0.76 s, and Ttorsion = 0.68 s. val over which 5-75% of the 0tend a2 (t)dt is accu-
mulated, where a(t) is the acceleration time history
3.3. Ground motion selection of GM. Source-specific Ds5−75 target distributions
Chandramohan et al. (2016) and Barbosa et al. are computed following the formulations presented
(2017) showed increased collapse risk of ductile in Chandramohan et al. (2016). The Kolmogorov-
RC frame structures located at sites prone to long Smirnov (K-S) goodness of fit test is utilized to
duration GMs. As the application example build- check the adequacy of empirical duration CDF of
ing site’s seismic hazard is dominated by interface selected GMs to that of Ds5−75 target distribution.
earthquakes from the Cascadia Subduction Zone Fig. 2(a) and Fig. 2(b) show the CS compat-
(CSZ), GMs are selected such that they satisfy re- ible selected ground motions response spectrum
sponse spectrum target as well as duration distri- and the duration distribution of selected GMs with
bution target conditional on the response spectrum. the conditional Ds5−75 distribution target, respec-
Thus, a two step procedure is utilized for GM selec- tively. Short duration GMs at lower end of the
tion. In the first step, a large number of conditional Ds5−75 scale in Fig. 2(b) are obtained from PEER

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13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

NGA-WEST2 database, whereas intermediate and 10 2


long duration GMs are obtained from PEER NGA-
WEST2 database, Belejo et al. (2017), and Long
(2013). 10 0

Sa (T) (g)
3.4. Results
Using the multi-hazard earthquake-tsunami analy- 10 -2 Median
sis framework presented above, a total of 396 se- 2.5 and 97.5 percentile
Selected ground motions
quential NRHA-NSP analyses are performed ( 6
seismic intensity level x 11 GMs x 6 tsunami in- 10 -4
10 -2 10 -1 10 0 10 1
undation depth h). In the following sections results [a] T (s)
are presented.
1

Cumulative probability
Target
3.4.1. Effect of seismic intensity on structural
0.8 Selected
stiffness and capacity 10% K-S bound

Fig. 3(a) and Fig. 3(b) show the effect of GM in- 0.6
duced accumulated damage on the stiffness and ca-
0.4
pacity of the building for the subsequent tsunami
response, at seismic IM of 10% in 50 years Sa (T1 ) 0.2
exceedance and 2% in 50 years Sa (T1 ) exceedance
probability, respectively. In these figures, six dis- 0
1 10 100 500
tinct capacity curves (red dashed lines) corresponds Ds5-75 (s)
[b]
to six inundation levels considered, with the highest
hu2 corresponding to lowest h at mid height of the Figure 2: GM selection at 2% in 50 years exceedance
ground story. At lower seismic IM (10% in 50 years Sa (T1 = 0.8s) with site-specific: (a) conditional spectra
exceedance level), minimal yet visible accumulated target, (b) Ds5−75 conditional distribution functions
damage effect due to earthquake can be observed, target.
which results in reduced initial stiffness and reduc-
tion in capacity of the structure compared to the 4. C ONCLUSION
undamaged structure’s tsunami-only response. The A probabilistic multi-hazard earthquake-tsunami
accumulated damage effect is more pronounced at fragility assessment framework is presented in this
higher seismic intensity level (2% in 50 years ex- study, which considers the effect of accumulated
ceedance level), which results in largely degraded damage on the structure due to earthquake load-
initial stiffness along with reduction in structural ing on its subsequent tsunami response. The frame-
capacity to a lesser extent. work involves simulating structural response using
advanced 3D nonlinear FEM of the structure sub-
3.4.2. Joint earthquake-tsunami fragility surface jected to sequential earthquake-tsunami loading at
Fig. 4 shows the joint earthquake-tsunami fragility
several seismic and tsunami intensity levels, using
contours for several probability levels for damage
back to back NRHA and NSP analyses. A modern
state corresponding to PIDR > 2%. It can be ob-
earthquake-tsunami code designed four story RC
served that the specific hu2 required to achieve a
SMRF building is used as an application example
given probability of damage is a function of the
to illustrate the framework. Results indicate that:
seismic IM. Joint earthquake-tsunami fragility con-
tours for 4%, and 6% PIDR exceedance levels are • The effect of accumulated damage due to
also developed, which reveal that with increasing earthquake loading is more pronounced in re-
seismic intensity, the hu2 required to achieve sim- ducing the stiffness of the structure compared
ilar probability of damage decreases, especially at to reduction in structural capacity. This accu-
lower damage state (2% PIDR exceedance). mulated damage effect on reduction in stiff-

6
13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13
Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 2019

2000

1500

hu 2 (m 3 /s 2 )
1000
P = 0.2
P = 0.4
500 P = 0.6
P = 0.8

0
0 1 2 3
[a] Sa (T1 ) (g)

Figure 4: Parameterized joint earthquake-tsunami


fragility function of the application example building
as function of spectral acceleration Sa (T1 ) and momen-
tum flux hu2 for 2 % PIDR exceedance level

or views of NIST or the US Department of Com-


merce.

6. REFERENCES
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concrete (ACI 318-14) and commentary (ACI 318R-
Figure 3: Effect of seismic intensity level on the lateral 14). American Concrete Institute, Farmington Hills,
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Sa (T1 ) exceedance probability; (b) at 2% in 50 years
Sa (T1 ) exceedance probability. Alam, M. S., Barbosa, A. R., Scott, M. H., Cox, D. T.,
and van de Lindt, J. W. (2018). “Development of
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Barbosa, A. R., and Cox, D. T. (2017). “Methodol-
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