Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci.

ISSN 0077-8923

A N N A L S O F T H E N E W Y O R K A C A D E M Y O F SC I E N C E S
Special Issue: The Year in Climate Science Research

Original Article

Impacts of teleconnection patterns on South America

climate
Michelle Simões Reboita,1 Tércio Ambrizzi,2 Natália Machado Crespo,2
Lívia Márcia Mosso Dutra,2 Glauber Willian de S. Ferreira,1 Amanda Rehbein,2
Anita Drumond,3 Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha,2 and Christie Andre de Souza1
1
Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Itajubá, MG, Brazil. 2 Departamento de Ciências
Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
3
Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Diadema, SP, Brazil

Address for correspondence: Michelle Simões Reboita, Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, Av.
BPS, 1303, Itajubá, MG 37500–903, Brazil. reboita@unifei.edu.br

Oceanic heat sources disturb the atmosphere, which, to come back to its initial state, disperses waves. These waves
affect the climate in remote regions, characterizing the teleconnection patterns. In this study, we describe eight
teleconnection patterns that affect South America climate: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD), the
South Atlantic Dipole (SAD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Precipitation and winds at 850-hPa anomalies, considering these teleconnection pat-
terns in ENSO neutral periods, are also presented. Overall, southeastern South America and the north sector of the
North and Northeast regions of Brazil are the most affected areas by the teleconnection patterns. In general, there
is a precipitation dipole pattern between these regions during each teleconnection pattern.

Keywords: precipitation; South America; teleconnection patterns; climate indices

Introduction the original (basic) state of the atmosphere. Hence,

waves traveling in the atmosphere are the cause of
Atmospheric and/or oceanic patterns, such as the El
some teleconnection patterns. However, there are
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), develop over
other mechanisms that disturb the atmosphere and
a specific region and affect the weather and climate
contribute to teleconnections, such as the Antarc-
of remote areas globally. The link between the
tic ozone depletion, which can affect the Southern
atmospheric patterns and climate anomalies over
Annular Mode (SAM).3
great distances is called teleconnection;1,2 and this
The relationship between local climate anomalies
word by itself is representative of these anomalies
and remote forcing can be identified through statis-
globally since “tele” means distant and “connection”
tical methods like correlation analysis and empirical
means relationship.
orthogonal functions (EOFs).4 Sir Gilbert Walker
As Liu and Alexander1 stated, “Teleconnec-
was the first to apply statistical methods to the
tions enable the atmosphere to act like a ‘bridge’
problem of teleconnections without knowing this
between different parts of the ocean and enable
phenomenon, and he became the reference in the
the ocean to act like a ‘tunnel’ linking different
use of correlation in meteorology (Ref. 5, p. 464).
atmospheric regions.” Oceanic heat sources dis-
With the correlation method, Walker6 discov-
turb the atmosphere. When it occurs, waves for
ered a tendency of the atmospheric pressure to
energy dissipation are created in order to restore

doi: 10.1111/nyas.14592
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 1
Teleconnections and South America climate Reboita et al.

Figure 1. Main source regions of the teleconnection patterns included in this study being the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD),
the South Atlantic Dipole (SAD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD).

“seesaw” between two regions: one in the vicinity
of Indonesia, the other in the tropical-subtropical
southeastern Pacific Ocean.7,8 Walker’s discovery
of the Southern Oscillation (SO) is the atmospheric
component of the ENSO. After Walker’s pioneering
study, the number of works focusing on tele-
connections increased during the 1980s. Among
them, several studies9–12 defined teleconnections
as significant simultaneous correlations between
temporal fluctuations in meteorological parameters
at widely separated points on Earth.
Teleconnection patterns have different temporal
scales, from intramonthly variability (like the SAM,
although this teleconnection pattern has another
timescale variability) to multidecadal (like the
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)). Many
studies have described the atmosphere and/or ocean
variability patterns and their effects on the climate
of remote regions; they are a powerful tool for cli-
mate forecasting. The current challenge is the sea-
sonal forecast. Much of the prognostics are provided
not only by the indication of the climate models
but also by the knowledge of the forecasters about
teleconnections. If one knows how to interpret, for
example, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in terms of teleconnection patterns, it is possible
to predict some climate variables, such as precip-
itation, in remote regions. In order to help South
America (SA) climate forecasting, we will review
the main teleconnection patterns that impact South
American climate and describe their influence on
continental precipitation. The teleconnection pat-
terns presented here are the ENSO, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO, the Tropical
Atlantic Dipole (TAD), the South Atlantic Dipole
(SAD), the SAM, the Madden–Julian Oscillation
(MJO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Fig. 1).
Our study is organized as follows: methodology; fol-
lowed by results and definitions of each teleconnec-
tion pattern and effect on South American precipi-
tation; then final discussion and conclusions.
Methodology
Basic information
Our study uses data from different sources. All the
teleconnection indices are obtained from mete-
orological centers that make them available on
the Internet. Table 1 shows the access links to the
teleconnection indices; but to facilitate the under-
standing of each teleconnection pattern, the data
and indices applied for the analysis will also be
mentioned in the corresponding Results subsec-
tion. Monthly precipitation data from the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC)13 and zonal and merid-
ional wind components at 850 hPa from ERA514,15
were used here. The horizontal resolution of these
datasets is 0.5° and 0.25°, respectively.
Figure 2 presents the time series of each tele-
connection pattern obtained from meteorological
centers to give a general idea of the indices’ time
evolution.

2 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al. Teleconnections and South America climate

Table 1. Climate indices used in the study and their sources

Indices Details Link

Oceanic Niño Index The 3-month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
(ONI) Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°W–170°W), on the basis of products/analysis_monitoring/
centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years, beginning ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
in 1950.
Pacific Decadal The PDO index, based on ERSST.V5 SST, is constructed by https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
Oscillation (PDO) regressing the ERSST anomalies against the Mantua PDO teleconnections/pdo/
index for their overlap period to compute a PDO regression
map for the North Pacific ERSST anomalies (for details, access
the link). The monthly index began in 1854.
Atlantic Multidecadal The AMO is based on the Kaplan SST dataset and in the https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/
Oscillation (AMO) area-weighted average over the North Atlantic, 0° to 70°N. The correlation/amon.us.long.data
monthly index began in 1856.
Tropical Atlantic Here, we focus only on the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) index, https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/
Dipole (TAD) - which is the component of the dipole in the TSA. The TSA is tsa.data
focused on TSA based on the anomaly of the monthly SST average from 0° to
20°S and 10°E to 30°W. HadISST and NOAA OI 1° × 1°
datasets are used to create this index. The climatology covers
the period 1971–2000; the index began in 1948.
South Atlantic Dipole The SAODI is defined by differencing the domain-averaged The SAODI was calculated based on
Index (SAODI) normalized ERSSTv5 SST anomaly between the northeast pole the methodology applied in
(NEP; 10°E–20°W, 0°–15°S) and the southwest pole (SWP; http://ljp.gcess.cn/dct/page/65592
10°–40°W, 25°S –40°S). The monthly index has began in 1979.
Antarctic Oscillation The monthly SAM index is constructed by projecting the daily https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
(AAO) (00Z) 700-hPa height anomalies poleward of 20°S onto the products/precip/CWlink/
leading pattern of the SAM. Since 1979, the NOAA calls this daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.
index the AAO. index.b79.current.ascii
Madden–Julian The methodology is explained in Wheeler and Hendon (2004),223 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
Oscillation (MJO) and it is based on a pair of EOFs of the combined fields of graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
near-equatorially averaged 850- and 200-hPa zonal winds, and
satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation data since 1974.
Dipole Mode Index For the IOD, HadISST1.1 SST is used to compute the anomalous https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/
(DMI) SST gradient between the western equatorial Indian Ocean Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.
(50°E–70°E and 10°S–10°N) and the southeastern equatorial data
Indian Ocean (90°E–110°E and 10°S–0°N). This gradient is
named the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The monthly index
began in 1870.

Composites 2. They are separated by the monthly index for

First, the time series of the teleconnection indices
are analyzed from January 1979 to June 2020
(Fig. 2). However, to separate the positive, negative,
and neutral cases, we used climatology based on the
period 1979–2019. The series of the teleconnection
patterns (Table 1) are shown in Figure 2. For our
analysis, the resulting series were based on the
following:
1. The respective indices series are detrended
using a common period from January 1979
until June 2020;
each austral season (December, January, and
February (DJF), summer; March, April, and
May (MAM), autumn; June, July, and August
(JJA), winter; and September, October, and
November (SON), spring);
3. Computed standard deviations of the monthly
time series are separated by seasons;
4. One standard deviation (SD) is used as a
threshold to identify the months with nega-
tive (value < −SD), neutral (−SD ≥ value ≤
+SD), and positive (value > +SD) index; this

Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 3
Teleconnections and South America climate Reboita et al.

Figure 2. The time series of the teleconnection indices (without removing trend) as described in Table 1.

methodology follows Reboita et al.16 and Fogt
et al.;17 and
5. To exclude the ENSO influence, only the
months that do not have El Niño or La Niña
episodes (neutral periods), which were identi-
fied with the ONI, are considered in the study.
After the selection of the months (Step 5), we
computed the composites of precipitation and
atmospheric circulation at 850-hPa fields for each
grouped set: positive and negative phases for
each season. We present the composites in terms
of anomalies regarding the season, that is, the

4 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
composite of cases subtracted from the seasonal
mean. As mentioned above, the climatology con-
sidered for the composites covers the period 1979–
2019. We also applied the t-test statistic to analyze
where differences are statistically significant at the
0.05 (95%) level, assuming unequal population vari-
ances and based on a two-tailed distribution.
Each subsection of the Results below presents
(1) the definition of the teleconnection pattern
and when it was described for the first time; (2)
an index for its monitoring; (3) how the changes
in the atmospheric circulation impact South
American precipitation; and (4) whether the
teleconnection pattern couples with the ENSO.
Additional figures showing the composites of
other atmospheric variables, such as wind inten-
sity at 200 hPa, are available in an online tool at
https://meteorologia.unifei.edu.br/teleconexoes/
atlas.
Results
The El Niño–Southern oscillation
Definition. The ENSO is a natural oceanic–
atmospheric coupled phenomenon featured by SST
anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (ocean
component) and the circulation pattern of its adja-
cent atmosphere (atmospheric component).18–22
Working together, the atmosphere forces the ocean
and vice versa, leading to a phenomenon of global
importance. Weaker than normal easterly winds
favor warmer waters over the eastern and cen-
tral equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to lower
atmospheric pressure, water vapor convergence,
and strong and persistent local precipitation.19
This configuration characterizes the ENSO’s warm
episode (Fig. 3A),23 or simply “El Niño” (therefore,
El Niño stands for both the ocean component of
the ENSO cycle and the warm phase of the cycle,
as noticed by Aceituno21 ). On the other hand,
more-intense-than-normal easterly winds over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean advect warm waters to
the Western Pacific, leading to more clouds over
this region and the resurgence of cold water in the
eastern equatorial Pacific Basin; this configuration
corresponds to the cold phase of the ENSO, com-
monly referred to as La Niña, which is the opposite
of El Niño.20 In addition to local effects over the
tropical Pacific Ocean, the ENSO also impacts
weather and climate globally.
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
The oceanic component of the ENSO has been
known for a long time by the local populations of
the west coast of SA owing to its impacts on fishing
and guano (a natural fertilizer, rich in nitrogen
and phosphates, from dried excrement of seabirds),
which are best observed near the end of the year18
around Christmas; this is what gave rise to the name
El Niño (which in Spanish means “the child”).20
Despite not knowing the ocean relation at that
time, the detection of the ENSO atmospheric com-
ponent is attributed to the British mathematician
Sir Gilbert Walker at the beginning of the 20th
century. Walker found climatic fluctuations around
the world related to a dipolar pattern in the sea level
pressure (SLP) between the east and west sides of
the tropical Pacific, which corresponds to the “SO”
term of the ENSO.19
The existence of the coupled oceanic and atmo-
spheric mechanism, which configures the ENSO,
dates from the 1960s.24,25 In this case, the zonal
pressure gradient over the equatorial Pacific Ocean
(induced by the zonal SST gradient along that
region) leads to a direct atmospheric thermal circu-
lation consistent with the SO found by Walker at the
beginning of that century. This thermal circulation
is usually referred to as the Walker circulation.
When the ENSO is active, there is a large impact
on the position of the ascending and descending
branches of the Walker circulation, as will be seen
later in this section.
Index for monitoring. The ENSO phases are
manifested along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but
there are regions with greater or lesser variability
in this range. In general, the Niño 1+2 region
(0°–10°S, 90°W–80°W) is the first to warm up or
cool down during a classical ENSO event. The
Niño 3 region (5°N–5°S, 150°W–90°W) suffers
great variability in SST, and the Niño 4 region
(5°N–5°S, 160°E–150°W) is known to impact
precipitation in Indonesia. Therefore, a mixture
between regions 3 and 4, known as Niño 3.4 (5°N–
5°S, 120°W–170°W), captures these two important
characteristics of variability in the SST and a strong
atmospheric response at the global level.22 The great
complexity of the ENSO requires a variety of data
and techniques to detect, monitor, and predict it.
The continuous monitoring of the SST, winds, and
atmospheric pressure over the equatorial Pacific
Ocean allows the performance of a quantitative
5
Teleconnections and South America climate Reboita et al.

A D G

F
H
C

Figure 3. The positive phase of the teleconnection patterns shown in Figure 1. (A) SST anomalies during different warm ENSO
episodes obtained from Kayano et al. (2016, http://climanalise.cptec.inpe.br/∼rclimanl/revista/pdf/30anos/Kayanoetal.pdf):23
Eastern Pacific (SON 1997), Modoki (SON 2002), and Mix (SON 1986). (B) PDO configuration obtained by linearly regress-
ing monthly SST anomalies at each grid box upon the leading principal component time series. The units are °C per standard
deviation of the PDO index, credit Giorgiogp2 CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/
PDO_Pattern.png/1920px-PDO_Pattern.png). (C) The AMO spatial pattern obtained by regressing detrended monthly HadISST
dataset anomalies (1870–2013) on the North Atlantic (0°– 70°N) average SST anomalies after the global mean has been removed.
The regression pattern is unitless (°C/°C), it depicts SST anomalies in °C per °C of the AMO index, credit Giorgiogp2, CC
BY-SA 3.0. (D) SST anomalies in March 1981 on the tropical Atlantic Ocean presenting the TAD (Reboita and Santos43 ). (E)
Correlation between SST anomalies and SVD time coefficients obtained from the SST indicating the SAD, adapted from Bom-
bardi et al.177 (F) The leading mode of the EOF obtained with monthly mean 700-hPa height anomalies poleward 20°S during
1979–2000, showing an SAM (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.loading.shtml).
(G) Schematic illustration of the MJO propagation and sea level pressure anomalies (red and blue indicate, respectively, regions
with negative and positive anomalies); adapted from Madden and Julian217 from http://kejian1.cmatc.cn/vod/comet/tropical/
MJO_EqWaves/navmenu.php_tab_1_page_2.1.1_type_text.htm; and (H) SST anomalies in November 1997 showing the IOD
(https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sstanom_199711_krig.jpg).

analysis of this phenomenon through indices. The https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/data.html and https://

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is widely used to define
the existence and the phases of the ENSO21 and is
frequently combined with an atmospheric index,
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in order
to characterize an ongoing event. In addition to
these two main indices, there are other indices,
such as the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index
(EQSOI, similar to the SOI, except that the former
calculates the averages over the areas around the
Equator) and the Trans-Niño Index (TNI)26 (see
climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-
indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni for more
details regarding these and other ENSO indices).
The ONI is the measure of the ocean component
and the first indication of the establishment of the
ENSO, since it indicates whether SSTs are anoma-
lously warmer (positive or warm phase, or El Niño)
or anomalously colder (negative or cold phase, or
La Niña). It also gives a sense of the intensity of the
phenomenon: the more intense the SST anomalies,

6 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
the more intense the impacts. The ONI is obtained
by computing 3-month running means of SST
anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. It is considered
that a given phase of the ENSO is set when, for at
least 5 consecutive months, the anomalies exceed
+0.5 °C (positive phase or El Niño) or −0.5 °C (the
negative phase or La Niña) (see additional informa-
tion at https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php). This
index is used here for the composition of the
atmospheric variables.
The SOI is the index that indicates the SO,
referred to as the ENSO atmospheric component.
It consists of the normalized monthly average of
SLP anomaly differences between Tahiti, French
Polynesia (17°S/150°W), and Darwin, Australia
(12°S/130°E). At least three consecutive months
with a negative SOI (below average air pressure over
Tahiti and above average over Darwin) accompany
an El Niño event. Conversely, at least three months
of the positive SOI (above average air pressure over
Tahiti and below average over Darwin) accompany
La Niña conditions (see additional information at
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/
indicators/soi/).
Impacts on South American climate. The ENSO
impacts climate globally, directly or indirectly,
from the tropics to the extratropics.27 Over SA,
it is well known that these impacts are associated
with the anomalous Walker circulation descend-
ing branch position (see Refs. 28–30), affecting
the tropical region, and, through Rossby wave
trains via Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern
(e.g., see Refs. 11, 12, and 29–34), affecting the
extratropics.
During El Niño events, the Walker circulation
ascending branch is intensified over the warmer
waters of the eastern-central Pacific Ocean, while
its eastern descending branch displaces toward
the tropical Atlantic Ocean and northeastern SA,
encompassing the eastern Amazon region and
northeastern Brazil,20,28,29,35 thus leading to a
reduction in the precipitation over Northeast Brazil
and east of the Amazon (e.g., see Refs. 28, 30, 34,
and 36–39), with the opposite occurring in La
Niña years.30,35,38 On the other hand, there is an
increase in precipitation on the coast of Ecuador
and Peru.18,40 The ENSO impact over the eastern
Amazon basin remains a topic of debate, since weak
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
events seem not to influence the convection over
that region,39,41,42 but does when combined with
anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.39,43 The
joint role of the ENSO and the tropical Atlantic
on the hydrological budget of the Amazon region
was also discussed using Lagrangian analysis devel-
oped by Drumond et al.44 During the peak of the
Amazon rainy season (from February to May), the
Atlantic is associated more with interannual varia-
tions in the moisture contribution from the tropical
Atlantic sources, while the moisture transport from
the basin toward the subtropics responds more to
ENSO variability.
In the extratropics, the relationship between El
Niño and climatic anomalies occurs from Rossby
wave patterns that travel on PSA wave trains29,33,45
and intensify the subtropical jet.38,46,47 These pat-
terns affect the advection of vorticity and the
intensity of low pressures on the region compris-
ing southeastern SA (SSA).46 Indeed, Figure 5A
from Reboita et al.48 shows a positive correla-
tion between the ONI and cyclone density over
SSA. The low-pressure anomalies over SSA can
be considered as a feedback mechanism since
they contribute to increasing the frequency and
intensity of episodes of low-level jets (LLJ),45,47,49,50
and these, in turn, contribute to strengthening the
cyclones. In terms of the Southern Hemisphere,
Reboita et al.48 show that the ENSO modulates the
cyclone occurrence regions but not the number of
occurrences.
During El Niño events, in general, there is
an increase in the occurrence and intensity of LLJ,
which lead to an increase and intensification of con-
ditions favorable to the organization of mesoscale
convective systems, resulting in large amounts
of precipitation over SSA;51 the opposite occurs
during La Niña events. Over the Bolivian Ama-
zon region and in the LLJ region, there has been an
increase in rainfall during El Niño years.52 Likewise,
during the austral summer, in SSA (northeastern
Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil), El Niño
causes increased precipitation (see Refs. 28, 30, and
53–55), and consequent increases in river levels.56
In SSA, the impacts on precipitation are more
accentuated from November of the year of estab-
lishment of El Niño until the following February.38
In fact, high correlations between precipitation and
the ENSO are found in southern Brazil at differ-
ent seasons.40,54 Other studies38,40,55,56 found in
7
Teleconnections and South America climate
southern Brazil, in addition to strong associations
with El Niño, a strong association with La Niña, but
with the opposite sign.
As of the 2000s, there were many studies explor-
ing the impacts of the ENSO on South American
climate variability. Basically, they explore different
data, including more weather stations and method-
ologies, corroborating what had been discovered
in previous decades: El Niño years are associated
with increased precipitation in SSA and decreased
precipitation in northern/northeastern SA, while
during La Niña the opposite occurs.
From the 2000s onward, observational and
numerical studies pointed out an inter-ENSO
variability in terms of intensity and location of the
maximum SST anomalies, which may affect the
South American climate in different ways from
the canonical pattern.57,58 A similar three-pole
pattern of SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific
was identified by some studies, though different
from those of the ENSO. According to Ashok
et al.,59 the new pattern has the same sign as SST
anomalies at the west and east edges of the equa-
torial Pacific Ocean but an opposite sign in the
central region (Niño 4), and it also interacts with
the atmosphere (Fig. 3A). Owing to the similar-
ities with the ENSO, Japanese researchers called
them ENSO-like, pseudo-El Niño, or Modoki.59
Modoki have different temporal characteristics
with decadal variability, while a canonical ENSO
has interannual variability. Moreover, since during
Modoki the major heating and convection sources
are located over the central Pacific, the Walker
circulation and the Pacific wave train are different
from a canonical ENSO. Therefore, a Modoki has
different impacts around the globe60 and SA,30,61
compared with a canonical ENSO. Specifically,
during a Modoki, precipitation may not vary or
even be reduced over SSA or increased in tropical
SA.30,61
As of 2010, it was noted that SST anomaly
configurations of both a canonical ENSO and
an ENSO Modoki could coexist and produce
different impacts from those attributed indi-
vidually to one or the other around the globe
(Fig. 3A).62,63 The dynamics and impacts associ-
ated with such an “ENSO Mix” still need to be
better understood, but it is already known that,
in general, over SA a mixed El Niño is associated
with anomalous precipitation patterns geograph-
8 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
ically, similar to a canonical El Niño but with
less intensity.63,64 Here, we focus on the impacts
of canonical ENSO events on South American
precipitation.
Figure 4 shows the composites of precipitation
anomaly and winds at 850 hPa during La Niña and
El Niño events in different seasons. During La Niña
episodes (Fig. 4A–D), the winds associated with the
South Pacific high are anomalously more intense
from south/southwest over Chile and southern
Argentina, where negative precipitation anomalies
are consistent with this circulation, as well as pre-
vious studies (see Refs. 40 and 46). On the other
hand, there is a weakening of the South Atlantic
Subtropical Anticyclone (SASA) that impacts
the associated north/northeast winds, which are
weakened over the continent, leading to a weak-
ening of LLJ, therefore reducing the moisture flux
toward SSA, where intense negative precipitation
anomalies have been observed and documented
previously (e.g., see Refs. 30, 38, 46, 55, and 65).
This combination of factors leads to a tendency for
negative precipitation anomalies over the southern
sector of SA, which, in general, persists throughout
the four seasons. In the northern sector, where
positive precipitation anomalies occur, winds are
anomalously more intense from north to northwest,
which transports moisture to the region.
Also, according to Figure 4, the anomalies of
circulation at low levels and precipitation during
El Niños are the opposite of those observed for La
Niñas. Accordingly, the anomalies of a northeast
wind are observed over the southwest coast of SA
in JJA and SON due to the weakening of the South
Pacific high, which leads to positive precipitation
anomalies over Chile.40,46 Over the Atlantic Ocean,
the most intense, and closer to the continent, the
SASA strengthens the easterlies over the tropical
Atlantic toward the north of SA and LLJ east of
the Andes. Over the LLJ region, the winds are
intensified, and positive precipitation anomalies
occur toward SSA. As reported in previous studies,
there is an increase in the frequency of LLJ in SA
during El Niño years,45,47,49,50 associated with the
strengthening of the upper-level subtropical jet
over SSA and the SASA due to the Rossby wave
train emanating from the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Thus, negative precipitation anomalies tend to
occur in the northern sector of SA, while positive
anomalies appear in the southern sector, varying
Reboita et al. Teleconnections and South America climate

Figure 4. Composite of the seasonal anomalies of precipitation (mm day−1 ; shaded) and wind at 850 hPa (m s−1 ; vectors) in
the negative ENSO phase, La Niña (left column), and the positive ENSO phase, El Niño (right column). Significant differences
in precipitation at the 95% confidence level are highlighted in continuous black lines. The number of months included in the
compositions is in the title of each figure (see text for more details).

Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 9
Teleconnections and South America climate
in intensity according to the season (Fig. 4E–H).
These results are in agreement with the increasing
(reducing) moisture transport from the Amazon
Basin toward the subtropics during El Niño (La
Niña) years reported by Drumond et al.44
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Definition. The PDO is the dominant pattern of
monthly North Pacific SST variability throughout
the year.66 The term Pacific (inter) Decadal Oscilla-
tion was first introduced by Steven R. Hare67 to label
a phenomenon extended over a great area of the
Pacific that affects fishing,67,68 weather (e.g., temper-
atures and precipitation over the American conti-
nent, especially North America),67 hydroclimate,69
tree growth,70,71 and other factors.72 The PDO
is characterized by opposite anomaly signals in
the SST, that is, warmer and colder SSTs than cli-
matology between the tropical/northeastern and
central/northwestern North Pacific Ocean on an
interdecadal scale (Fig. 3B). The PDO was also
described as a long-lived ENSO-like interdecadal
variability;73 however, there are a few distinguishing
features between them: for example, (1) PDO events
tend to persist for 20–30 years (interdecadal), while
ENSO events persist for 6–18 months (interannual);
and (2) the PDO is more expressive in the midlati-
tudes, mainly in the central and northeastern North
Pacific regions, with less significant signatures in the
tropics, while the ENSO has the opposite pattern.
The PDO, representing the leading EOF of
monthly SST anomalies poleward 20°N in the
Pacific Basin after removing the global mean SST
anomalies, is characterized by two phases (as
the ENSO): warm and cold. During warm (cold)
phases, positive (negative) SST anomalies pre-
dominate in the eastern North Pacific (along the
North American coast) and central/eastern tropical
Pacific, while negative (positive) SST anomalies
predominate in the central/western North Pacific.
In the warm phase, there is an intensification of
the Aleutian low-pressure cell and high-pressure
anomalies over western North America and the
subtropical Pacific,74 which are also observed at the
500-hPa level.
Recent studies have shown that the PDO rep-
resents the effects of different processes acting in
different time scales, such as changes in ocean sur-
face heat fluxes and Ekman transport related to the
Aleutian low,74 owing to local and remote forcing
10 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
from interannual to decadal tropical variability
(e.g., El Niño), decadal changes in the Kuroshio–
Oyashio system, and processes setting oceanic
thermal inertia.66
Index for monitoring. The PDO is based on
the monthly SST anomalies poleward 20°N in the
Pacific Basin; then, EOF analysis is applied, and the
index is the leading eigenvector of the North Pacific
SST.67 It is important to define the domain used for
the EOF calculation. If it is expanded southward,
the tropical portion of the pattern tends to be more
pronounced and the North Pacific anomaly moves
slightly eastward. On the other hand, if the entire
Pacific Basin is considered, the pattern resembles a
global ENSO-related pattern.66
Below, we used the National Centers for Envi-
ronmental Information (NCEI) PDO index, which
uses the extended reconstructed SST data (ERSST
Version 5) from 1854 until the present time.
The data provided by the NOAA are constructed by
regressing the ERSST anomalies against the Mantua
PDO index for their common period to compute a
PDO regression map for the North Pacific ERSST
anomalies. In this case, the monthly SST is com-
puted poleward 20°N, following Mantua et al.67
Impacts on South American climate. The
anomalies associated with the PDO over SA
are very similar to those observed during
ENSO events but with fewer extremes. In the
warm PDO phase, higher (lower) tempera-
tures are observed over northern SA (NSA:
which includes the western South American
coast and the southeast of Brazil)75 and anomalous
dry (wet) periods over SSA (southeastern Brazil and
central-southern SA).75–78 In addition, in a recent
study comparing different reanalysis, a dipole pat-
tern over eastern SA during opposite PDO phases
was observed: central-eastern SA experiences neg-
ative (positive) precipitation anomalies during the
cold (warm) PDO phase, while SSA experiences an
opposite pattern.79 In terms of circulation, during
the cold (warm) PDO phase the LLJ over SA are
intensified (weakened), which is associated with
positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies
extending vertically through the troposphere over
eastern SA.79
As a novel seasonal analysis regarding the influ-
ence of the PDO warm and cold phases on the
circulation and precipitation over SA, we present
Reboita et al.
anomalies maps during neutral ENSO periods
(Fig. 5); previous studies analyzed mainly the PDO
impacts on precipitation on different timescales
and mainly during ENSO phases.77,79–81 There were
fewer cases of the PDO during the austral summer
(DJF) and more during the austral autumn (MAM);
the austral spring (SON) and winter (JJA) present a
similar number of cases. Nevertheless, during DJF
there were specific drier regions for both phases
(Fig. 5A and E), such as the eastern coast and
northern parts of SA, and wetter conditions in
the central part of SA, which is in agreement with
the aforementioned studies. For the warm PDO
phase in DJF, we also observe positive precipitation
anomalies over Argentina and over the latitudinal
band 0°–10°S, and an anomalous anticyclonic cir-
culation over the southeastern part of the continent.
In the cold phase, however, positive precipitation
anomalies are observed in the central–northern
part of the continent, including spots over the
Amazon region (Fig. 5A and E).
During MAM, central SA presents a large dry
region in the cold PDO phase at a statistically
significant level (Fig. 5B), while in the warm phase,
the precipitation anomalies are from neutral to
positive (Fig. 5F). Wetter conditions are found at
the northeastern and southern west coast of the
continent in both phases. JJA and SON are the sea-
sons during which both phases of the PDO present
opposite features. In the cold phase (Fig. 5C and D),
the South American continent is, in general, drier
than during the warm phase (Fig. 5G and H). In
JJA, the northern part of the continent is dry (at a
statistically significant level) in the cold phase, and
the opposite occurs in the warm phase. Also, in this
phase, NSA presents slightly negative anomalies at
a statistically significant level. In the cold phase, the
winds over the continent are easterly and northerly,
resulting in an anomalous anticyclonic circulation
with the center over the South Atlantic, while in
the warm phase, it is the opposite (Fig. 5C and
G). Finally, in SON, the circulation is weaker over
the continent compared with JJA; however, during
the PDO cold phase, dry regions are located in a
northwest-southeast band from NSA to southeast
Brazil, and in the southern part of the continent
(Fig. 5D). During the warm phase, the conti-
nent presents positive (although not statistically
significant) precipitation anomalies (Fig. 5H).
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
Relationship between the PDO and the ENSO.
Once the PDO and the ENSO have a similar feature
over the Pacific, the PDO can intensify (minimize)
ENSO impacts if they are in the same (different)
phase and even extend it poleward.81 The indices
for monitoring the ENSO (SOI and ONI) are
correlated with the PDO, such that, during the
warm (cold) ENSO phase, they tend to coincide
with the years of positive (negative) PDO index.
If the PDO index and the ENSO are in a positive
phase, there is an intensification of warm waters
in the tropical Pacific and, therefore, an additional
weakening of the trade winds,82 inducing more
severe and broader droughts over many regions.81
On the other hand, an opposite effect occurs in the
negative phases of both events.66
Over SA, during the warm phase of the ENSO
and the PDO there is an intensification of LLJ,
bringing more humidity from the north to the
south of Brazil, increasing precipitation over this
region,80,81,83 which is observed in all seasons
(Fig. S1, online only). Specifically, in DJF, the
central–northern part of SA experiences negative
precipitation anomalies. In MAM and JJA, the
region of negative anomalies displaces to the south,
remaining over the north part of Brazil, and positive
anomalies are found over the extreme north of SA.
Finally, in SON, the precipitation anomalies are
weaker in the north, but still considerable in SSA
(Fig. S1, online only).
In cold phases, there is a displacement of humid-
ity to the west over NSA, located over the Amazon
basin, and more dry conditions in the Southeast
and Northeast Brazilian regions.81 These con-
ditions are observed mainly in DJF and MAM,
accompanied by a weakening in LLJ (Fig. S1, online
only). In JJA and SON, the precipitation anomalies
are more noticeable in the extreme north of SA,
where a tripole of anomalies occur, and dry con-
ditions in the south region of Brazil and Uruguay
and wet conditions in the extreme north of SA,
respectively.
In summary, during the coupling of the ENSO
and the PDO, the signal of precipitation of the
ENSO over SA is intensified, which can be seen by
comparing Figures 4 and 5, and Figure S1 (online
only); and this occurs mainly during the wet season
(DJFMAM).
11
Teleconnections and South America climate Reboita et al.

Figure 5. Composite of the seasonal anomalies of precipitation (mm day−1 ; shaded) and wind at 850 hPa (m s−1 ; vectors) in
the negative (left column) and positive (right column) phases of the PDO during neutral ENSO events. Significant differences
in precipitation at the 95% confidence level are highlighted in continuous black lines. The number of months included in the
compositions is in the title of each figure (see text for more details).

12 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Definition. The AMO (Fig. 3C) was first
characterized by Schlesinger and Ramankutty84
through anomalies in the areal mean tem-
perature of the North Atlantic. The AMO is
the leading mode of decadal SST variability
in the North Atlantic,85 being defined as an
oscillation in the SST with a periodicity of
about 60–90 years and a 0.4 °C range between
extremes.84,86 Physical mechanisms that drive the
AMO are not fully understood.87 The NOAA
(https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php)
suggests that the AMO cycle involves changes in the
south-to-north circulation and overturning of water
and heat in the Atlantic Ocean. When the overturn-
ing circulation decreases, which includes the warm
Gulf Stream current off the east coast of the United
States, the North Atlantic temperatures become
cooler. This same mechanism has been mentioned
by Zhang88,89 and O’Reilly et al.90 Another group,
Yamamoto, Tatebe, and Nonaka,91 suggests that the
AMO warming phase is mainly attributed to the
mixed-layer depth deepening, as this increases the
heat capacity leading to an ocean less sensitive to
surface cooling by heat fluxes. On the other hand,
the variability of the mixed-layer depth is related
to a positive anomaly of salinity over the subpolar
region, which is induced by the intensified Gulf
Stream during the positive phase of the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the associated
anomalous wind stress curl. In our understanding,
if the Gulf Stream is intensified, there is an increase
in the transport of warmer water to subpolar regions
favoring the transfer of latent heat from the ocean to
the atmosphere with a consequent increase in salin-
ity (greater evaporation results in greater salinity).
This process, in its turn, intensifies the overturn
current over the North Atlantic (feedback effect).
Index for monitoring. The NOAA monitors
the AMO through an index computed using the
monthly Kaplan SST dataset.92 This index is defined
as the linearly detrended North Atlantic (0°–70° N)
average anomalous SST (https://www.psl.noaa.gov/
data/timeseries/AMO/). The AMO-positive phase
is defined as when there are positive anomalies
in the North Atlantic. The AMO warm phases
occurred during 1860–1880, 1940–1960, and 1995–
present, and cool phases during 1905–1925 and
1970–1990.86,93
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
Impacts on South American climate. The AMO
warm phase contributes to:
1. Shifting the Intertropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) to the north,94–98 which reduces
northeastern Brazil precipitation;87,99,100 it
can also be seen in Figure 4.58 from COMET
(http://ftp.comet.ucar.edu/memory-stick/
tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/print_4.
htm#page_3.2.0). The Amazon Basin is
also affected by the AMO’s distinct phases.
Apaéstegui et al.101 show that during the
AMO-positive (negative) phase, the mon-
soon precipitation over the basin decreases
(increases). Zanin and Satyamurty102 provide
a physical explanation for the impact of the
AMO phases on the Amazon Basin and the
South American Monsoon System. According
to these authors, during the wet monsoon
phase, the AMO-positive (-negative) phase
leads to a reduction (increase) in the transport
of moisture into SA owing to the migration of
the ITCZ to a more northward (southward)
position from the geographic equator. This
migration to the north (south) takes with
it the ascending branch of the Hadley cell,
causing convection in the northern (southern)
portion of the Amazon Basin. This process,
in turn, favors the northward displacement
of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone
(SACZ);
2. Intensifying the Walker circulation93,103,104 due
to the east–west SST and SLP gradients
between the tropical Atlantic (warm phase)
and eastern Pacific Oceans (cold phase): this
process contributes to increasing the precip-
itation and streamflow in the Atrato River
Basin, Colombia,93,105 as a consequence to
the strengthening of the Choco Low (mois-
ture is transported into Central and West-
ern Colombia, increasing the rainfall there).105
This is consistent with Wang et al.,106 who
showed that the multidecadal warming of
the tropical Atlantic contributed more than
half of the positive precipitation anoma-
lies during the wet season in Amazonia
throughout 1979–2015. One reason for these
anomalies is the increase in the moisture
convergence;
13
Teleconnections and South America climate
3. Maturation of tropical storms into severe hur-
ricanes; there is then a much greater fre-
quency of hurricanes in this phase than dur-
ing cold phases;107–109 in this way, the coast of
northern SA can be reached by these systems,
such as Hurricane Yota that occurred in 2020,
reaching Colombia;110,111
4. Lower frequency of extratropical cyclones in
high and middle latitudes of the Southern
Hemisphere;112,113 and
5. Positive anomalies in the air temperature at
2 m in the southern and northern Brazilian
regions.114
Opposite conditions are generally observed in the
cold AMO phase.
In order to provide a general view of the AMO
impacts on South American precipitation during
neutral ENSO events, Figure 6 shows seasonal
anomaly compositions of the precipitation and
winds at 850 hPa during the positive and nega-
tive AMO phases. It is clear from these data that
the anomalies present a distinct pattern between
the AMO phases, in agreement with Apaéstegui
et al.,101 and a seasonal variability, as shown in the
numerical study of Ruprich-Robert et al.87 Consid-
ering all of SA, dry (wet) anomalies prevail during
the AMO-positive (negative) phase. However, there
is no clear dry signal over northeastern Brazil dur-
ing the AMO-positive phase, as in the previously
mentioned studies. Our result is more consistent
with Alexander et al.,115 who found substantial
differences in the atmospheric anomalies between
periods of the same AMO phase.
It is important to remember that LLJ east of
the Andes presents variability in its path: it can be
directed either to southeastern Brazil during SACZ
episodes, or to the La Plata Basin.116,117 Moreover,
LLJ can be configured from low latitudes or only
southern 20°S.49 The AMO-negative phase in SON
and DJF (Fig. 6A and D) seems to strengthen and
displace the north of the SACZ (in agreement with
Zanin and Satyamurty102 ), since LLJ also appear
strengthened and directed to the State of Minas
Gerais. At the same time, there is a weakening of LLJ
to SSA and the prevalence of dry conditions over
some parts of SSA. This pattern of LLJ is consistent
with Jones and Carvalho,118 who verified that LLJ
east of the Andes (when in the path to southeastern
Brazil) are negatively correlated with the AMO.
14 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
However, we highlighted that to the south of 20°S,
LLJ exhibit a different configuration, being weaker
(stronger) than climatology in the AMO-negative
(positive) phase. From MAM to JJA (Fig. 6B and C),
the large area between 10°S and 0° with wet anoma-
lies is concentrated over the extreme north of SA.
Over the oceans, the AMO-negative phase tends
to reduce the intensity of the subtropical anti-
cyclones since there are cyclonic anomalies in the
regions of these systems. This impact may be related
to the higher frequency of extratropical cyclones
over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during the
AMO cold phase documented by Kayano et al.112
and Marrafon et al.113 Indeed, during the AMO-
negative phase, there are wet anomalies southward
of 30°S along the Chilean coast that can be related
to cyclones that reach Chile (Fig. 6A–D). Further-
more, during the AMO-positive phase, there is an
evident intensification of the subtropical anticy-
clone during the entire year over the Atlantic Ocean
with a displacement westward (except in MAM
when there are cyclonic anomalies). In the Pacific
Ocean, the subtropical anticyclone is more intense
than the climatology only in DJF. The anomalous
subtropical anticyclone over the Atlantic Ocean
contributes to the negative precipitation anomalies
in SON over Southeast Brazil (Fig. 6H).
The positive AMO phase in MAM (Fig. 6F)
shows wet anomalies on the Atlantic coast of
Colombia and Venezuela that can be attributed in
part to the impact of hurricanes, as mentioned in
item (3) above. In JJA, more intense dry anomalies
are registered in the extreme north of SA (Fig. 6G),
as described in Ruprich-Robert et al.87 During this
period, anomalies show a weakening of the trade
winds over the north of SA, which indicates a pos-
sible surface temperature gradient from southern
to northern tropical latitudes in consequence of the
warmer SST over the North Atlantic. Unfortunately,
we do not have an explanation for all the anomalous
patterns described in Figure 6. Moreover, we do
not exclude the possibility that other teleconnec-
tion patterns, such as the PDO, can influence the
patterns described above.
Relationship between the AMO and the ENSO.
Kayano and Capistrano119 show that El Niño (La
Niña) events are stronger during the cold (warm)
phase of the AMO due to the anomalous Walker
cell to be reinforced by El Niño (La Niña), as a
Reboita et al. Teleconnections and South America climate

Figure 6. Same as Figure 5 but for the AMO.

Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 15
Teleconnections and South America climate
consequence of the negative (positive) SST gra-
dient between the eastern equatorial Pacific and
the equatorial Atlantic. According to Figliuolo
et al.,120 the anomalous Walker cell shows sinking
(ascending) motions and increased (decreased) sea-
level pressure in the equatorial and southern parts of
the tropical Atlantic, increasing the Pacific–Atlantic
inter-basin zonal SST gradient during El Niño and
the cold phase of the AMO. Figliuolo et al.120 also
evaluated the concomitant impact of the different
ENSO (Eastern Pacific and Modoki El Niño and
La Niña) episodes and the AMO (warm and cold)
on South American precipitation; some of their
results include: (1) Eastern Pacific El Niño (canon-
ical events) and the warm phase of the AMO are
associated with the intensification of negative pre-
cipitation anomalies in northeastern Brazil, since
the ITCZ is northward of its position; (2) Eastern
Pacific El Niño and the cold phase of the AMO are
associated with the intensification of negative pre-
cipitation anomalies in the central part of the Ama-
zon caused by the anomalous sinking branch of the
Walker cell; (C) Modoki El Niño show a more vari-
able signal (see Figliuolo et al.120 for more details);
and (4) Eastern Pacific and Modoki La Niña events,
together with the warm phase of the AMO, con-
tribute to negative anomalies in northeastern Brazil.
The Tropical Atlantic Dipole
Definition. The Tropical Atlantic Variability
(TAV) can be represented on an interannual scale
by its three main climatic modes: the Atlantic
Zonal Mode (AZM), the Atlantic Meridional Mode
(AMM), and variability in the Angola–Benguela
Front (ABF).121 The AMM can be described by
the second EOF of monthly SST anomalies and is
characterized by a cross-equatorial gradient of SST
and wind anomalies.65,122–126 The AMM config-
uration often shows a warm pool in the tropical
North Atlantic and a cold pool in the tropical South
Atlantic (TSA), or vice versa (Fig. 3D). Such a phe-
nomenon is also called the Tropical Atlantic Dipole
(TAD), although the absence of a consensus on the
real nature of this pattern makes it better known as
the decadal tropical Atlantic SST variability.127
Since the 1970s, many studies have shown the
importance to tropical Atlantic climate variability
of meridionally antisymmetric distributions of the
SST anomaly (and the associated SLP anomaly)
on the intensity and location of the ITCZ.94,128–144
16 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
The latitudinal position of the ITCZ is strongly
influenced by the dipole pattern of the Atlantic
Ocean; however, some studies have shown that its
latitudinal variability is more related to the SST
interhemispheric gradient, particularly during the
late boreal winter.140,141
The TAD-positive phase is characterized over
the tropical North Atlantic Basin by positive SST
anomalies, weaker northeasterly trade winds, and
negative SLP anomalies. Concomitantly, negative
SST anomalies, stronger southeasterly trade winds,
and positive SLP anomalies occur over the trop-
ical South Atlantic Ocean.132,140,143 Inversely, the
TAD-negative phase presents positive (negative)
SST anomalies over the TSA (North Atlantic).
Index for monitoring. Enfield et al.144 used
monthly SST anomalies to define (1) the tropical
North Atlantic (TNA) index as the average over
the rectangular region of 5°N–25°N, 55°W–15°W,
and (2) the TSA index as the average over a region
covering 20°S–0°, 30°W–10°E. The warm or pos-
itive phase of the TAD is characterized by posi-
tive (negative) anomalies of SST in the TNA (TSA),
while the cold or negative phase of the dipole occurs
when there are positive (negative) anomalies in the
TSA (TNA). The focus of our study here is on the
TSA index and its variability. The positive (nega-
tive) TSA index indicates positive (negative) SST
anomalies in the TSA. Following the definition pro-
posed by Enfield et al.,144 the CPC from the National
Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) pro-
vides monthly TSA (as well as TNA) indices since
1948, removing the annual cycle using the monthly
climatology from 1971 to 2000. Here, the CPC-
NOAA monthly TSA index (https://psl.noaa.gov/
data/correlation/tsa.data) is applied.
Impacts on South American climate. The nega-
tive phase of the TAD (related to the positive TSA
index) is associated with:
1. Southward migration of the ITCZ: the cooling
of the SST in the northern portion of the trop-
ical Atlantic, together with the above-average
warming of the SST in the southern, induces a
southward migration of the ITCZ;36 variations
in the intensity of the trade winds are a primary
force for thermal changes in the upper layers of
tropical Atlantic, resulting in anomalous SST
dipole patterns; otherwise, the southerly wind
Reboita et al.
responds to anomalous southern SST gradi-
ents over the equatorial Atlantic;121,140
2. Increased precipitation over Northeast Brazil,
as positive SST anomalies in TSA are asso-
ciated with an enhancement in evaporation
over the ocean, intensifying the southerly trade
flow and converging moisture flux, which con-
sequently increase precipitation;36,140,143,145–151
inversely, the positive phase of the TAD
(related to the negative values of the TSA
index) does not favor precipitation in North-
east Brazil, as it promotes the northward dis-
placement of the ITCZ;126,140,152–155
3. Increased rainfall in sectors, such as the south-
ern, eastern, and northern regions of the
Amazon;35,52,54,145,156–163 the influence of the
TSA in the Amazon is due to an anomalous
Hadley circulation over the region, since the
cooling of waters in the tropical North Atlantic
induces upward motions over the Amazon
Basin, resulting in increased convergence of
humidity flux and precipitation.124,163
4. The temperature dipole over subtropical SA,
characterized by warming along a zonal band
extending from the southeastern Brazilian
coast to the west of Bolivia, while the center
of Argentina undergoes cooling; the warming
in the subtropical area coincides with reduced
precipitation during the negative phase of the
TAD, indicating that warming may be caused
by changes in the hydrological cycle.164
Studies that evaluated the correlation between
the SST time series in the TSA and rainfall in SA
indicated a positive correlation in the northern
part of Northeast Brazil, the northeast Amazon,
and southern Brazil, and a negative correlation
in the extreme north of SA, the southeast center
of Brazil, and the southern Amazon.143,151,164,165
Franca and Mendonça166 assessed the correlation
between rainfall in the Meridional Amazon and
different climatic indices and obtained a weak neg-
ative correlation (−0.26) between the TSA index
and precipitation of the dry season in the region.
However, Wang et al.106 concluded that the rainfall
induced by the tropical Atlantic over Amazon con-
tributed to more than 60% of the changes in total
precipitation during December–May in the period
from 1979 to 2015. These results indicate that pre-
cipitation in Northeast Brazil is strongly related to
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
SST variability in the TSA, but the relationships for
different sectors of the Amazon are more complex
and require more studies.
For a more in-depth assessment of the TSA’s
influence on South American climate, Figure 7
shows the precipitation and wind anomaly com-
posites at 850 hPa for the positive and negative
TSA phases. Considering the seasonal variability of
the negative (Fig. 7A–D) and positive (Fig. 7E–H)
phases, the most intense anomalies occur dur-
ing DJF and MAM. Moreover, the positive phase
also presents strong anomalies in JJA and SON
(Fig. 7E–H). In general, the positive (negative)
phase of the TSA contributes to more moisture
(dry) conditions in the north and east of Northeast
Brazil, northeast of Amazon, the extreme south of
Brazil, portions of Uruguay, and east of Argentina.
These anomalies are in agreement with previous
studies,143,149,151,164,165 indicating a greater relation-
ship between SST variability in the TSA and rainfall
in northern sectors of Northeast Brazil and the
northeast Amazon. On the other hand, the negative
(positive) phase of the TSA presents wetter (drier)
conditions in portions of the south and southeast
of Northeast Brazil, and the southeast and midwest
of Brazil. Some interesting aspects are found during
DJF of the TSA-positive phase (Fig. 7E), which,
although not statistically significant, indicate a wide
region of positive precipitation anomalies over the
northern Northeast and most of the Amazon. This
may be related to an anomalous anticyclonic cir-
culation (South Atlantic Subtropical High (SASH))
that transports moisture to northernmost SA.
Other relevant aspects occur in the positive
phase of the TSA during MAM (Fig. 7F). This
phase predominates statistically significant positive
anomalies of precipitation in the north of North-
east Brazil and northeast Amazon, while negative
anomalies occur in the extreme north of SA, which
agrees with the aforementioned studies. During JJA
in the positive phase of the TSA (Fig. 7G), there
are statistically significant wetter conditions in the
north of SA. This result corroborates that found
by Yoon and Zeng,163 who observed a significant
correlation between Amazon rainfall and the SST
of the TSA during Amazon’s wet-to-dry season.
Relationship between the TSA and the ENSO.
The relationship between the TSA and the ENSO
is discussed in Refs. 43, 44, 143, 146, 147, 154,
17
Teleconnections and South America climate Reboita et al.

Figure 7. Same as Figure 5 but for the TSA.

18 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
163, and 167–169, among others. Pezzi and
Cavalcanti167 found that El Niño events cou-
pled with positive TAD conditions (negative
TSA phase) were related to a deficit of rain over
Northeast Brazil and the Amazon, and an excess
of precipitation over south-central SA. El Niño
events associated with negative TAD conditions
(positive TSA phase) produced a rainfall deficit
in the Amazon and the south of Northeast Brazil,
while positive rain anomalies were observed over
the south and Southeast Brazil and the north of
Northeast Brazil. La Niña events coupled with the
positive phase of the TAD showed drier conditions
over the Northeast and the Amazon and wetter
ones over the center-south of Brazil. For the case
of La Niña associated with the negative TAD phase,
excessive rain was observed over Northeast Brazil,
while the southeast of SA presented drier anomalies.
The authors suggest that under La Niña conditions,
precipitation over SA is dependent on the TAD,
while El Niño events reinforce the effects of the
positive TAD. This occurs since the northward
shift of the ITCZ results in changes in the zonal
and meridional cells of atmospheric circulation,
which intensifies anomalous rain conditions over
Northeast Brazil and the Amazon.
Drumond et al.44 explored the joint role of the
ENSO and the TAD on the hydrological budget
of the Amazon Basin. They verified that during
the peak of the Amazonian rainy season (February
to May), the TAD is more associated with the
interannual variations in the moisture contribution
from the tropical Atlantic sources toward the basin,
while the transport from the basin toward the
subtropics responds more to the ENSO variability.
The moisture contribution prevailed from the TSA
(North Atlantic) region in the years dominated
by El Niño/positive TAD (La Niña/negative TAD)
conditions.
Rodrigues et al.154 observed that strong and long
(weak and short) El Niño events with a heating
source in the eastern (central) Pacific triggered
the second (third) leading mode of the PSA pat-
tern in SON, which consequently strengthened
(weakened) the SASH. In dry events of Northeast
Brazil, the strengthening of SASH was linked to an
increase in southerly trade winds associated with
negative SST anomalies in the equatorial South
Atlantic in November and December. For wet
events in Northeast Brazil, the weakening of the
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
SASH sets TAD with positive SST anomalies in the
TSA in DJF, which inhibits the direct effects of the
ENSO. Kayano et al.169 corroborated these results
when observing that positive TSA events coupled
with El Niño presented southeasterly winds associ-
ated with the stronger SASH, which promoted an
anomalous northward displacement of the ITCZ.
These authors also observed that positive TAD
events were well distributed during both phases
of the AMO, while negative TAD events occurred
preferentially during the cold phase of the AMO.
The South Atlantic Dipole
Definition. The dominant mode of atmosphere–
ocean coupled variability over the South Atlantic
is a dipole typically oriented in the northeast–
southwest direction with the centers of action over
the tropical and extratropical South Atlantic,170–175
as shown in Figure 3E. Hereafter, referred to as the
SAD,176,177 this pattern is related to the variability of
the SASH, which influences low-level atmospheric
circulation and the ocean-mixed layer.171,174,178–180
The SAD was presented for the first time by
Venegas et al.,181 followed by other studies that
obtained similar dipole patterns using Eigen-
based techniques such as the EOFs with varimax
rotation182 and singular value decomposition
(SVD) analyses.179,183 According to Venegas
et al.,181 the first coupled mode identified by
SVD1 of the monthly anomalies of the SST and SLP
from 1953 to 1992, accounting for 63% of the total
squared covariance, was described as an oscillation
in the strength of the subtropical anticyclone. The
SASH oscillation was associated with variations
of a north–south dipole structure in SST, with
the atmosphere leading the ocean by 1–4 months.
Therefore, negative SAD events are characterized
by negative SST anomalies over the TSA (off the
coast of the Central Equatorial Africa/West Africa)
and positive ones over the extratropical South
Atlantic (off the coast of SSA), besides by posi-
tive SLP anomalies over the whole South Atlantic
(Fig. 3E). Anomalies with opposite signs occur
during positive SAD events. The SAD presents
variability on the intraseasonal, interannual, and
even interdecadal scales.170,176,177,179
Two major variants of the SAD have been
described in the literature: the South Atlantic
Subtropical Dipole, peaking in the austral sum-
mer (SASD),174 and the South Atlantic Ocean
19
Teleconnections and South America climate
Dipole, peaking in winter (SAOD).175 Some studies
questioned whether the apparent SST dipole-like
structures reported a real variability or whether
they were an artifact of the analysis techniques (e.g.,
an extension of the domain of the SAO or the tem-
poral resolution of the data).171 Nevertheless, using
seasonal-reliant EOF (S-EOF) analysis, Nnamchi
et al.184 showed that the SAD undergoes remark-
able seasonal changes and that both the SASD and
SAOD are the same mode of ocean–atmospheric
interaction reminiscent of the SAOD structure
peaking in winter, and both capture different aspects
of the South Atlantic Ocean climate variability.
Index for monitoring. In the literature, there are
some indices for monitoring the SAD. The SAOD
Index (SAODI) is defined by differencing the
domain-averaged normalized SST anomaly (SSTA)
of the two centers of intense warming and cooling
associated with the SAOD: the northeast pole (NEP:
10°E–20°W, 0°–15°S) and the southwest pole (SWP:
10°–40°W, 25°S –40°S).175 The index is positive
(negative) when positive (negative) anomalies are
registered over the NEP and negative (positive)
over the SWP. SAODI was monitored until 2016
(see http://ljp.gcess.cn/dct/page/65592). For our
discussion here, SAODI was updated using the
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature
version 5 (ERSSTv5) dataset.185 Another index, the
SASD Index (SASDI), is calculated in a similar way
to the SAODI but considering different regions: the
box over SWP (NEP) is defined by 10°W–30°W
and 30°S–40°S (0°–20°W and 15°–25°S).174 While
the northernmost part of the SAODI extends to
the equator and coincides with the Atlantic Niño
region,186 the southern part of the SASDI falls
within that of the SAODI. For both indexes, an
extreme event occurs when the index exceeds one
standard deviation.
Impacts on SA climate. The leading S-EOF mode
found by Nnamchi et al.184 describes the seasonal
evolution of the SAD in terms of SST anomalies.
According to their results, considering a positive
SAD event, the cold anomalies are mainly confined
to the southern 35°S during DJF, while in the rest of
the basin are predominantly warm anomalies with
maxima close to the northern pole of the SASD and
in the Benguela–equatorial Niño region. The cold
anomalies are displaced to the west of the SASD
box, while both cold and warm anomalies are dis-
20 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
placed south by approximately 5°–10° latitude. The
wind anomalies suggest the atmospheric-induced
origin of SST anomalies.170,171,187 In MAM, the SST
and wind stress anomalies spread northward and
the cold anomalies reach approximately 30°S. The
cyclonic wind stress anomalies intensify and are
associated with enhanced warming from the north-
ern part of the SASD to the Benguela–equatorial
Niño region. In JJA, the wind stress anomalies
generally weaken; and while the westerly anomalies
persist over the western equatorial Atlantic, a rever-
sal (to easterly) occurs in the eastern basin, leading
to anomalous convergent motion over the equa-
torial Atlantic 3 region. The anomalous easterlies
intensify further, indicating a strengthening of the
trade winds, which may then intensify upwelling
and evaporation, leading to the decay of the SST
anomalies the following season.
Therefore, negative (positive) SAD events are
characterized by positive (negative) SLP anomalies
over the whole South Atlantic, negative (posi-
tive) SST anomalies over the TSA and along the
African coast, and positive (negative) SST anoma-
lies over the western and central extratropical South
Atlantic. In SA, in general, negative (positive) SAD
is associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry)
austral summers over southeastern Brazil, and
late (early) onset and dry (wet) summers over
northeastern Brazil.176,188 Nnamchi et al.175 found
similar anomalous precipitation and SST patterns
during the austral winter, i.e., the dry season over
central-southeastern Brazil.
In an attempt to reproduce the major anomalous
patterns associated with extreme SAD conditions,
Data in Figure 8 was derived based on the events
identified through the SAODI. Before analyz-
ing the results, it is important to recall the high
sensitivity in the identification of extreme SAD
conditions according to the characteristics of the
statistical analysis performed, as well as of the index
considered. Accordingly, as shown in Figure 8,
the highest number of extreme SAD events was
registered during JJA, coinciding with the peak
of SAOD structure184 and the dry season over
central-southeastern Brazil. In agreement with
previous work, anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies
prevailed over the extratropical South Atlantic
during negative (positive) SAOD events. Although
not statistically significant, positive precipitation
anomalies predominated over tropical Brazil during
Reboita et al. Teleconnections and South America climate

Figure 8. Same as Figure 5 but for the SAD.

Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 21
Teleconnections and South America climate
DJF in the negative SAD events (Fig. 8A). However,
the unique positive SAD event registered in DJF also
showed a dipole of enhanced precipitation over the
tropics and inhibited over the subtropics (Fig. 8E);
probably, the SAODI was not able to capture the
SAD variability during DJF, and this index would
be more appropriate for characterizing the remain-
ing seasons when the anomalous SST patterns are
configured over the SAODI northern pole. Further
studies are necessary to explore this hypothesis.
During MAM, Figure 8B (Figure 8F) suggests the
impact of the SAD over northeastern Brazil during
wet season, with weaker (enhanced) precipitation
associated with negative (positive) SAD conditions,
in agreement with Muza et al.188 and Bombardi
and Carvalho.176 Enhanced (weakened) precipita-
tion occurred over central Brazil during negative
(positive) SAD events. Focusing on the statistically
significant anomalies, it seems that the impact of the
SAD over the NSA persisted during JJA and SON,
constituting one of the most prominent anomalous
features. Although less clear and not as significant,
anomalous moist (dry) conditions prevailed over
the south of central-southeastern Brazil during
negative (positive) SAD events in SON.
Investigating the atmospheric dynamics related
to the positive precipitation anomalies over south-
eastern Brazil during negative SAD events from
September to April, Bombardi et al.177 observed the
propagation of a wave pattern from the extratropi-
cal Pacific similar to the one described by Liebmann
et al.117 related to submonthly variations in the
SACZ. This pattern is associated with low-level anti-
cyclonic anomalies over the extratropical Atlantic
(Fig. 8A–D), cyclonic anomalies over central Brazil
(Fig. 8A and B), weakening of LLJ, and favoring
moisture transport to eastern SA. During posi-
tive SAD events there were positive precipitation
anomalies over a large part of eastern SA (although
with few areas showing statistical significance),
mainly in DJF (Fig. 8E) and MAM (Fig. 8F). The
low-level anticyclonic anomaly is closer to southern
SA, and in most seasons (except winter) negative
precipitation anomalies and anomalous northward
low-level winds predominate over part of the La
Plata Basin. Bombardi et al.177 verified that the wave
patterns observed during SAD events could impact
the storm tracks and the propagation of extratropi-
cal cyclones near the east coast of SA. According to
their analysis, during negative SAD events, the max-
22 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
imum cyclogenesis occurs offshore of the southern
Brazilian coast, and the increased precipitation over
eastern SA is associated with both the SACZ and
extratropical cyclones. Anticyclogenesis east of the
Andes and anticyclone intensification over the west-
ern extratropical South Atlantic (Fig. 8A–D) are
related to the generation of positive SST anomalies
and the northward displacement of transients.
Relationship between the SAD and the ENSO.
Although the ENSO and the SAD seem to
interact,154,189 the relationship is not obvious.175
Kayano et al.189 showed that the relationship
between the SAD and the ENSO is affected by
decadal variability, with the ENSO leading the SAD
from 1940 to 1970 and the SAD leading the ENSO
from 1970 to 2000. This is in agreement with the
results of Bombardi and Carvalho176 and of Nnam-
chi et al.175 showing that the SAD leads the ENSO by
more than 5 months. However, Rodrigues et al.154
found an impact of inter-El Niño variability on
SST anomalies over the South Atlantic. The SASD
(SAOD) index is better correlated with the Niño-3
index in DJF (MAM and JJA), and these seasons
depict different phases of ENSO evolution.184
Bombardi and Carvalho176 found that the rela-
tionship between the SAD and the variability of the
wet season over tropical SA is independent of the
ENSO. Bombardi et al.177 reinforced the impor-
tance of separating the influence of the ENSO when
investigating the impacts of the South Atlantic on
SA climate variability. As the authors highlight,
during El Niño events a significant increase occurs
in the median of precipitation in the wet season
over southeastern Brazil during the positive SAD,
compared with the negative SAD. However, during
La Niña events there is a significant increase in the
median of precipitation during the negative SAD,
compared with the positive SAD.
The South Annular Mode
Definition. The SAM is a leading mode of natu-
ral climate variability of the Southern Hemisphere
extratropical circulation characterized, for exam-
ple, by zonally symmetric geopotential height
perturbations of opposing signs around Antarctica
and a zonal ring centered near 45° latitude.3,190,191
Although the SAM is a natural mode of climate
variability, its intensity or polarity can be modified
by external forcings, such as Antarctic stratospheric
Reboita et al.
ozone depletion or an increase in greenhouse
gases.3
When the EOF technique is applied, for example,
to the seasonal anomalies of geopotential height at
500 hPa, the first leading mode is the SAM (Fig. 3F),
which explains 20–30% of the total variance in the
dataset.31,32,190,191 The SAM is well characterized
in different atmospheric variables besides geopo-
tential height,192 and its vertical structure presents
a quasibarotropic pattern.193 With regression
maps (i.e., variable anomaly field regressed on the
principle component associated with the dominant
EOF of that variable), Sen Gupta and England192
showed that the SAM-positive phase is also char-
acterized by negative anomalies of air temperature
(adiabatic cooling caused by anomalous upward
motion in the near-surface layer),190,191 positive
anomalies of zonal wind, and precipitation around
Antarctica with opposite conditions near 45°S. The
reverse conditions are registered in the negative
SAM phase.
Although the SAM gained attention in the 2000s,
past studies, such as by Rogers and van Loon194
and by Kousky,195 identified a zonally symmet-
ric or the annular structure of circulation in the
Southern Hemisphere. The SAM has been known
since the 1980s but without its current name;
indeed, one finds several different names in the
published literature: the Southern Hemisphere
Circulation,196 Antarctic Oscillation,197 the High
Latitude Mode,198 the High-Latitude Circulation,199
and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode.190,191
The SAM200,201 is now more often found in the
literature.
Index for monitoring. The SAM can be moni-
tored through indices. The CPC from the NCEP
has available daily and monthly SAM indices since
1979. The SAM is defined as the first leading mode
from the EOF analysis applied to the monthly mean
700-hPa height anomalies poleward of 20° latitude.
The daily and monthly SAM indices are constructed
by projecting the daily and monthly mean 700-hPa
height anomalies onto the leading EOF mode.
Both time series are normalized by the standard
deviation of the monthly index (1979–2000 base
period). The positive phase of the SAM index is
defined by the presence of negative anomalies of
geopotential height around Antarctica and positive
ones in the zonal band around 45°S. We applied the
CPC-NOAA SAM month index in the present study
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/
CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html).
A general look in the time series, from January
1979 to August 2020, shows that the SAM has a
positive trend (y = 0.00086∗ x–0.15), being signifi-
cant at a level of 95% confidence. This is consistent
with the results obtained by Fogt and Marshall,3
which also indicate that the positive trends are more
expressive in the austral summer and autumn. In a
review of the literature, Fogt and Marshall3 verified
that the majority of studies suggest stratospheric
ozone depletion as the mechanism contributing to
positive summer SAM trends. Although the SAM
has seasonal variability, when one considers the
daily data, the persistence of each SAM phase is
approximately 10 days.202
Impacts on South American climate. The SAM-
positive phase is associated with:
1. A weakening of the subtropical jet,203,204 but
without changes in its latitudinal position (Fig.
S2, online only);205
2. A strengthening and poleward displacement
of the circumpolar vortex and zonal (westerly)
winds around Antarctica (Fig. S2, online only),
which is a consequence of the strengthening of
the meridional horizontal gradient of pressure
between mid and high latitudes;203,205,206
3. A higher frequency of cyclones near Antarc-
tica and the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean,
and lower frequency near southern Argentina
(45°S);16,207 an example of monthly cyclone
tracking density over the Southern Hemi-
sphere in each SAM phase is shown in Fig-
ure S2 (online only);
4. The frontogenetic function showing lower val-
ues between 30°S and 50°S compared with
the negative phase;16 this feature is consistent
with Cardozo et al.208 that showed a lower fre-
quency of cold fronts between Bahía Blanca
(Argentina) and Porto Alegre (Brazil) during
the SAM-positive phase; and
5. Negative anomalies of precipitation over the
SSA—Uruguay, northern Argentina, and
Southern Brazil16,209 —and a weak positive
signal over southeastern Brazil. Vascon-
cellos et al.210 indicate that there is great
monthly variability in the signal of precip-
itation anomalies over SSA in the different
phases of the SAM. All patterns described are,
23
Teleconnections and South America climate
in general, opposed during the SAM-negative
phase. The enhanced atmospheric moisture
transport toward SSA during the SAM-
negative phase identified by Nieto et al.211
favors enhanced precipitation over the region.
Rosso et al.212 also verified that the SAM-positive
phase helps to module the SACZ, a result that agrees
with Vasconcellos and Cavalcanti’s213 study of the
extreme events of precipitation over southeastern
Brazil during the austral summer. According to
Vasconcellos and Cavalcanti,213 the PSA pattern
during the SAM-positive phase acts by helping to
increase the precipitation in the southeast of Brazil.
It can be associated with the amplified trough that
extends from the middle latitudes to SA (reach-
ing South Brazil), as observed by Andrade and
Cavalcanti214 when they analyzed the cases of wet
and dry cold fronts passing over SA during the aus-
tral summer. Wet (dry) cold fronts are associated
with the SAM-positive (negative) phase.
For a more detailed analysis of the SAM influ-
ence on South American climate, Figure 9 shows the
compositions of precipitation and wind at 850 hPa
anomalies for the positive and negative SAM phases.
As in Reboita et al.,16 the SAM phases present
the most intense (weakest) anomalies during MAM
(JJA) and a great influence on precipitation of
SSA and between southeast and northeast Brazil-
ian regions. In general, the positive (negative) SAM
phase contributes to dry (wet) conditions over SSA
and wet (dry) conditions between southeastern and
northeastern Brazilian regions (Fig. 9). However,
this pattern has some seasonal variability. For exam-
ple, in DJF during the SAM-positive phase (Fig. 9E),
not the whole of SSA is dry (the Rio Grande do Sul
state is wet) and not the whole of southeast region of
Brazil is wet. In MAM and SON, both SAM phases
cause a well-configured dipole of precipitation
anomalies between SSA and southeastern Brazil.
The precipitation anomalies shown in Figure 9
can be better explained through a conceptual phys-
ical model (Fig. 10). This model was developed by
Reboita et al.207 and improved in the current study.
Considering the SAM-positive phase, negative
anomalies of geopotential height occur in an equiv-
alent barotropic pattern around the pole, while posi-
tive anomalies occur at midlatitudes (the barotropic
pattern can also be seen through the wind intensity
anomalies in Fig. S2, online only); cyclogenesis at
24 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
midlatitudes is then inhibited. Concomitantly with
this pattern is the Rossby wave train that propa-
gates from the Western Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean
and contributes with positive anomalies of geopo-
tential height at 850 hPa on southern SA, and nega-
tive anomalies near the southeastern Brazilian coast
(Fig. 10). These anomalies seem to contribute to
the tripole of cyclogenesis near the South American
coast: higher frequency of cyclones near the south-
eastern coast of Brazil and Antarctica and lower
frequency near the Argentinian coast. The area of
low pressure near the southeastern Brazilian coast is
important to organize the moisture over this region
and leads to positive precipitation anomalies. At the
same time, the LLJ are weakened and do not trans-
port humidity to SSA.
Relationship between the SAM and the ENSO.
The SAM and ENSO relationship has been dis-
cussed in a few studies (e.g., see Refs. 17, 203, and
215). According to these authors, the negative (pos-
itive) SAM phase is dominant during El Niño (La
Niña) periods. One reason for this is that positive
SST anomalies during El Niño increase global mean
temperature and contribute to low pressure in the
direction of the midlatitudes.215 Fogt et al.17 men-
tion that the highest statistical relationship between
the ENSO and the SAM is observed during the aus-
tral summer. Still, according to Fogt et al.,17 when
the SAM-negative phase occurs concomitantly with
El Niño, or the SAM-positive phase with La Niña,
the PSA pattern is well configured. On the other
hand, when the two modes are out of phase, the
PSA pattern is considerably weaker.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation
Definition. The MJO is a zonally oriented equa-
torial atmospheric disturbance with eastward
propagation.216,217 It is triggered over the Indian
Ocean and Indonesia (Fig. 3G and Fig. S3, online
only) and completes a cycle around Earth in 40–60
days, which means that it completes its cycle in
an intraseasonal timescale (30–90 days).218 This
disturbance consists of a very large system of clouds
that causes significantly enhanced and reduced
precipitation, strong winds, and anomalies in the
pressure fields at the same time but in different
regions of the tropics according to its phases.216–221
When active, the MJO can have eight phases, as
shown in Figures 3G and S3 (the latter online only).
During phase 1, enhanced convection producing
Reboita et al. Teleconnections and South America climate

Figure 9. Same as Figure 5 but for the SAM.

Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 25
Teleconnections and South America climate
Figure 10. The conceptual model of the SAM impact on SA. Based on Reboita et al. (2009) and (2015), see Refs. 16 and 48,
respectively.
large amounts of rainfall (green color in Fig. S3,
online only) develops over the western Indian
Ocean; along phases 2 and 3, the enhanced convec-
tion and rainfall moves eastward over the Indian
Ocean until it reaches Indonesia and the Western
Pacific, on phases 4 and 5; and finally, during phases
6, 7, and 8, the convection band moves along the
Pacific Ocean, from west to the center, where it then
dissipates.
Index for monitoring. There are various
indices for monitoring the MJO (see https://psl.
noaa.gov/mjo/ and Kiladis222 ), but one of the most
widely used is the real-time multivariate MJO index
(RMM) developed by Wheeler and Hendon.223 This
index is derived by applying EOFs to the outgoing
longwave radiation and 200- and 850-hPa zonal
winds averaged over the equatorial region (15°N
to 15°S). The RMM index comprises two values:
RMM1 and RMM2, which are used to define an
active MJO (when RMM1 and RMM2 are both
greater than one) or inactive phase (when RMM1
and/or RMM2 are/is less than one). Wheeler and
Hendon223 also introduced a phase–space dia-
gram (see Fig. 7 from Wheeler and Hendon223 ),
combining the information of the phase/location
where most convective activity and its intensity
26
Reboita et al.
are occurring (RMM1 and RMM2 values). As the
RMM index has different phases during the month,
we did not do composites of the MJO. The discus-
sion of the impacts of this teleconnection pattern
on South American precipitation is based on the
literature.
Impacts on South American climate. Despite
the fact that the MJO is more restricted to the
tropical belt, it influences climate and weather
globally through teleconnection patterns (e.g., see
Refs. 218, 219, and 224). The convective part of the
MJO propagates eastward from the Indian Ocean
and configures tropics–tropics teleconnections
and/or away from the convective anomaly part of
the MJO toward the Western Hemisphere, con-
figuring tropics–extratropics teleconnections.219
Figure S3 (online only) shows the precipitation
anomaly during the austral summer (November to
March) and winter (May to September) at different
phases of the MJO. It shows that during the austral
summer precipitation is favored over tropical SA in
phases 7, 8, 1, and 2, as shown by previous studies
(see Refs. 220 and 224–228). In such phases, the
MJO sustains active or wet days over the monsoon
core region in SA.228 Moreover, it may affect some
of the monsoon system components, such as the
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
SACZ,225 increasing the daily mean precipitation
by more than 30% over the SACZ region.224 Despite
that, Grimm224 evidences that the interaction
between teleconnection via the Rossby wave train
with topography over central-eastern SA is the
driver for enhanced convection over this region.
Accordingly, Alvarez et al.226 found that phases 3
and 4 also favor precipitation during the austral
summer peak (December to February) and autumn
(March to May) over SSA. On the other hand,
during summer, phases 3, 4, 5, and 6 disfavor pre-
cipitation over southeast and northeast Brazil (Fig.
S3 right, online only). Nonetheless, during winter,
tropical SA experiences the dry season, and the
MJO tends more to enhance precipitation (with less
intensity over the SACZ region and compared with
summer) than decrease it (Fig. S3 left, online only).
The MJO phases 4 and 5 continue suppressing
precipitation over eastern SA,220,226 but to a minor
degree (Fig. S3 left, online only) associated with
the MJO convection activity over Indonesia and
Western Pacific in those phases. Beyond the lati-
tude domain (Fig. S3, online only), Barrett et al.229
verified the impacts of the MJO on precipitation
and circulation in Chile, finding a response from
the teleconnection via the Rossby wave train. In this
sense, around 30°S to 45°S, which corresponds to
central and south-central Chile, positive precipita-
tion anomalies predominate during phases 8, 1, and
2 of the MJO, while negative precipitation anoma-
lies predominate during phases 3 to 7. The MJO
also impacts tropical cyclone activity globally (see
Refs. 230–232) and over the North Atlantic Basin
(see Refs. 231, 233, and 234). Accordingly, phases
1 and 2 favor tropical cyclone occurrences over
the extreme north of SA (North Atlantic Basin),
while the contrary is observed in phases 5 and
6,231,233,234 which can lead to enhancing or decreas-
ing precipitation over the extreme north of SA, for
instance.230
The MJO impacts are particularly important for
extreme precipitation events over SA.220,221,224,235
Carvalho et al.220 showed that intense SACZ events
persisting for more than 3 days are associated with
the active MJO. Jones et al.221 observed a higher
frequency of extreme precipitation events globally.
Indeed, over São Paulo, in Southeast Brazil, the
MJO contributed significantly to the severe weather
events during the 2016 dry season.235 Besides that,
Grimm224 showed that the number of extreme
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
events in the eastern portion of SA is duplicated
during the MJO period.
Relationship between the MJO and the ENSO.
There is evidence that the MJO influences the
ENSO cycle. Zhang236 revised the processes that
are involved and suggested that the MJO modifies
the zonal gradient of SST over the equatorial Pacific
Ocean, creating favorable conditions for trigger-
ing an ENSO event and through energy transfers
from intraseasonal to interannual timescales.236
Notwithstanding, these interactions remain a topic
of debate. On the other hand, the combined impacts
of the ENSO and the MJO can be more conclusive.
Pohl and Matthews237 verified that MJO’s interan-
nual variability is related to ENSO events. Their
findings suggest that during ENSO-neutral years or
weak La Niña events, the MJO is stronger. On the
contrary, during strong El Niño events, generally,
the MJO is weaker or even inactive.237 Therefore,
it makes sense to explore the different impacts that
a combination of the different ENSO and MJO
phases can produce. Shimizu and Ambrizzi238
explored the associations between the ENSO and
MJO phases and anomalies in precipitation and
temperature over Brazil. The authors found that the
already known anomalies of those variables during
ENSO events can or cannot intensify, depending
on the MJO phases. The combination of the MJO
and the ENSO is also important for tropical cyclone
occurrences. In this sense, when the MJO phases
1 and 2 are combined with La Niña events, the
modulation of the tropical cyclone activity over
the North Atlantic is increased,230,231,234 with more
precipitation over NSA.230 In contrast, El Niño
tends to decrease these activities over the North
Atlantic,230,231 with less precipitation over NSA.230
Godoi et al.239 showed that the trade winds are
weakened over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, close
to the north and northeast coast of SA, during the
austral summer with the active MJO in phases 8, 1,
and 2 and concomitant El Niños events, along with
negative anomalies in the height of sea waves. Nev-
ertheless, they observed an intensification of the
trade winds occurring over the north and northeast
coasts of SA in the MJO phase 6, accompanied
by positive anomalies in the heights of waves over
that region. In the same study, it was verified that
during La Niña events, weaker trade winds and
negative wave height anomalies occur in the MJO
27
Teleconnections and South America climate
phase 2, along the entire Tropical Atlantic and close
to the northeastern coast of SA, and in phase 7
close to the north coast of SA. On the other hand,
there is an intensification of the trade winds and
positive wave height anomalies in the MJO phases
3 and 4 near the north coast of SA. The positive
wave height anomaly is also observed during the
MJO phase 1 in the same region, together with an
intensification of winds slightly to the north of that
region.239
The Indian Ocean Dipole
Definition. In September 1999, two papers
were published focusing on ocean–atmosphere
coupling in the Indian Ocean. While Webster
et al.240 analyzed coupling in the period 1997–1998
and proposed the Indian Ocean internal mode,
Saji et al.241 defined the IOD (Fig. 3H) being
“…a pattern of internal variability with anoma-
lously low SSTs off Sumatra and high SSTs in the
western Indian Ocean, with accompanying wind
and precipitation anomalies.” Saji et al. also men-
tion that the IOD accounts for about 12% of the
SST variability in the Indian Ocean. Even today, the
processes that trigger the IOD events are not fully
understood.
Index for monitoring. The IOD can be iden-
tified by an index, the dipole mode index
(DMI),241 which describes the difference in SST
anomalies between the tropical western Indian
Ocean (50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N) and the tropical
southeastern Indian Ocean (90°E–110°E, 10°S–
Equator); the NOAA website (https://psl.noaa.gov/
gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data)
has the monthly DMI available since 1870. The
DMI-positive (negative) phase is represented by
positive (negative) SST anomalies in the west sec-
tor of the Indian Ocean and negative (positive)
anomalies in the east sector (Fig. 3H). The positive
(negative) DMI phase is associated with a strength-
ening (weakening) of the trade winds.241–245
Accordingly, a positive DMI indicates droughts
over the Indonesian region and heavy rains and
floods over East Africa; opposite conditions occur
in the negative phase. Some authors246,247 indicate
that the DMI-positive phase reaches its peak during
the austral summer, while other authors248 indicate
that it reaches its peak in the austral spring. Since
2018, the DMI has been in a positive phase.
28 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
Impacts on South American climate. Saji and
Yamagata249 show that the IOD affects both the
Northern and Southern Hemispheres. According to
these authors and Cai et al.,247 the IOD assumes a
structure of the Rossby wave train in the extratrop-
ics of the Southern Hemisphere. The wave-like train
is generated over the southeastern Indian Ocean
and extends downstream in an arcing pattern into
the south Pacific and Atlantic, reaching SA. In terms
of surface air temperature, a partial correlation
between this variable and the DMI shows a positive
correlation over the whole area of the SACZ.249
These results are also confirmed by Saji et al.250
The impact of the IOD on South American pre-
cipitation during the austral spring was analyzed
by Drumond and Ambrizzi251 and by Chan et al.248
In the latter study, the IOD-positive phase during
periods without the ENSO was considered; a dipole
pattern was found between the southern and north-
ern parts of eastern SA, with negative anomalies
(positive anomalies) over central and southeastern
Brazil (subtropical La Plata Basin). This precip-
itation pattern, consistent with the numerical
experiments of Sena and Magnusdottir,252 is related
to a Rossby wave source that is generated by the IOD
divergence/convergence anomalies over the tropi-
cal Indian Ocean and curves toward the south and
reaches the southern part of SA.248 It contributes
to generating a low-level anomalous anticyclone off
the coast of Brazil, enhancing the tropical easterlies
and strengthening the LLJ east of the Andes. The
LLJ act as an anomalous humidity transport to
the La Plata Basin, causing a higher quantity of
precipitation. Similar results were also obtained by
Drumond and Ambrizzi.251 Chan et al.248 and Bazo
et al.253 also show positive anomalies over Peru
during the positive IOD phase.
Focusing on the IOD influence on SA, Figure 11
shows the compositions of the precipitation and
wind at 850-hPa anomalies for the positive and
negative IOD phases based on the DMI. Both IOD
phases indicate stronger precipitation anomalies
during DJF (Fig. 11E), which may be associated
with the peak of the IOD.246,247 On the basis of
Figure 11, the precipitation anomalies along the
seasons, with opposite signals between the IOD
phases, are clearer in the extreme north of SA and
SSA (generally located between the Rio Grande
do Sul state and Uruguay). During the negative
(positive) phase, there are wet (dry) conditions over
Reboita et al. Teleconnections and South America climate

Figure 11. Same as Figure 5 but for the IOD.

Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences. 29
Teleconnections and South America climate
extreme north and dry (wet) conditions over the
SSA. The increase in precipitation in southeastern
Brazil during the IOD-positive phase is related to
the strengthening of the SASA that reinforces the
LLJ in continental subtropical latitudes, as shown
in Figure 11E–H. These results are consistent with
other authors (e.g., see Refs. 248, 251, and 252),
who also mention that changes over the Atlantic
Ocean circulation are due to the propagation
of a Rossby wave train from the eastern Indian
Ocean.
One interesting feature in the seasonal anomalies
of the IOD-positive phase is that, while in SON
(Fig. 11H), it predominates dry conditions over
most of the continent, in DJF (Fig. 11E) the pre-
cipitation anomalies are positive. [The causes of
this inversion will be investigated in a future study.]
Although the intensity of the precipitation anoma-
lies in SON is higher in the IOD-positive phase,
they have a reversal pattern to the negative phase
(Fig. 11D and H). Considering DJF, it seems that
the IOD-negative phase helps to displace the SACZ
northward of its climatological position (Fig. 11A),
and it may be associated with the strong cyclonic
anomaly over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
Relationship between the IOD and the ENSO.
Stuecker et al.254 show that only 32% of the IOD
events occur independently of ENSO events.
According to different authors (see Refs. 255 and
256), the positive (negative) phase of the IOD
can cause/influence El Niño (La Niña), and it is
associated with the anomalous zonal winds in the
Western Pacific.245 As one can see in Figure 3 from
Zhang et al.,257 during the IOD-positive phase, the
colder SST of the East Indian Ocean is connected to
that in the Indonesian region and creates a strong
horizontal temperature gradient with the west
sector of the Indian Ocean. It intensifies the trade
winds over the Indian Ocean and acts by removing
the superficial water from the Indonesian region,
leading to the cooling of the Western Pacific and,
consequently, to favoring of El Niño events.
In terms of effects on SA, of the few studies
Taschetto and Ambrizzi258 have shown through
observations and numerical experiments analysis
a link between the Indian Ocean and SA not only
with the IOD but also when the whole Indian Ocean
Basin is warm (Indian Ocean Basin–wide warm-
ing (IOBW)). They indicated that the combined
30 Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Reboita et al.
action of El Niño and the IOBW affects the South
American anomalous circulation, particularly dur-
ing March-to-May, increasing rainfall in the La
Plata basin and decreasing rainfall over the north-
ern regions of the continent. The teleconnection
between the IOBW and South American climate
occurs in two ways: modifications of the Walker cir-
culation patterns and through midlatitude Rossby
wave propagation. Regarding SSA during the austral
summer, Cazes-Boezio and Talento259 verified that
La Niña events did not cause significant changes in
the southeastern South American summer precip-
itation between 1949 and 1978, while the opposite
(positive anomalies) was observed from 1979. The
authors related these findings to the SST anomalies
in the Indian Ocean, but without being associated
with the different phases of the IOD.
Discussion and conclusions
Our study presented analyses and a review of the
main teleconnection patterns (the ENSO, PDO,
AMO, TAD, SAD, SAM, MJO, and IOD) having
different temporal scales that affect South Amer-
ican precipitation. Independent of the time scale
analyzed and in a general view, the impacts of
the teleconnection patterns on South American
precipitation are more noticeable over SSA, the
extreme north of SA, and coastal areas of North
and Northeast Brazil. They also affect the SACZ
region, influencing the quality of the rainy season
(monsoon period). For example, during SON, the
positive phase of the AMO and the IOD contributes
to reducing the precipitation in the SACZ region,
while the negative phase of the PDO increases it.
Although we focused on the isolated effect
of each teleconnection pattern, they can inter-
act and contribute to different anomaly patterns
over SA. Recent studies, such as Cai et al.245 and
Wang,260 have highlighted the interactions among
the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans through
ocean–atmosphere coupling. For example, Wang260
summarizes that the Pacific Ocean (ENSO) affects
other oceans through the Walker circulation; a
positive IOD establishes a southwestward pressure
gradient force in the Indonesian throughflow (ITF)
region, which increases the ITF transport and
decreases the ocean heat content in the Western
Pacific, and may cool the eastern Pacific, SST. There
are a few studies with this goal focusing on SA.
Therefore, it is an important topic to be addressed
Reboita et al.
in future studies. Moreover, not all teleconnection
patterns have been deeply explored. For exam-
ple, the SAD needs more attention, considering
that there are different areas used in the calcu-
lation of this index, which can lead to different
responses in the analysis of precipitation on the
continent.
The patterns exhibited in the figures pre-
sented here, as well as the review of the main
teleconnection patterns affecting SA, can help
forecasters to improve seasonal climate predic-
tions, which remains a challenge and requires
many more studies. In addition to our discussion
above, an online tool with a compilation of dif-
ferent teleconnection indices was developed to
help climate forecasters and is available at https:
//meteorologia.unifei.edu.br/teleconexoes/.261
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Conselho Nacional
de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
in Brazil (CNPq), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoa-
mento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), and
PETROBRAS (2017/00671-3) for the financial
support. A.R. was also supported by the FAPESP
Grants 2016/10557-0.
Supporting information
Additional supporting information may be found in
the online version of this article.
Figure S1. The impact of PDO–ENSO coupling
(i.e., when both are in the same phase) on pre-
cipitation and low-level winds (850 hPa) in South
America.
Figure S2. Ten (A–D) upper (200-hPa) and (B–E)
lower (850-hPa) levels wind magnitude anomalies
(m s–1 ) in the different phases of the SAM for the
austral autumn.
Figure S3. Precipitation anomalies (mm day–1 ) for
all MJO events from 1979 to 2012 for November–
March (left panel) and May–September (right
panel) considering the eight MJO phases described
in https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/
enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care and https://
frontierweather.dtn.com/climatemaps/Winter
MJO.png.
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. xxxx (2021) 1–38 © 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.
Teleconnections and South America climate
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
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