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 Análise da epidemia da ferrugem do cafeeiro com árvore de decisão

Di Di Di A i-1 Ai

PINF 1 mês

FIG. 1: Representação dia-a-dia do esquema usado na preparação dos dados meteorológicos. Di – dia de infecção,
Ai – avaliação da incidência da ferrugem do cafeeiro, Ai-1 – avaliação da incidência no mês anterior, PI – período de
incubação e PINF – período de infecção.

TABELA 1 - Relação das variáveis usadas na indução da árvore de decisão

Corp.). Alguns procedimentos finais foram realizados
com o “software” SAS® Enterprise Miner™ (versão
4.3, SAS Institute Inc.). O conjunto de dados preparado
totalizou 384 exemplos ou casos (8 anos x 12 meses x
4 combinações espaçamento-carga). No entanto, houve
períodos de falha no registro da estação meteorológica, por
falta de energia, funcionamento incorreto ou manutenção
nos meses de novembro e dezembro de 2000 e fevereiro
de 2000 e 2003. Os dados meteorológicos disponíveis
também não foram suficientes para formar o período
de infecção correspondente à incidência observada em
outubro de 1998. Sendo assim, os exemplos dos referidos
meses (5 meses x 4 combinações = 20) foram eliminados,
resultando no conjunto de modelagem com 364 exemplos,
chamado de conjunto de treinamento.
Modelagem
O algoritmo básico de indução de árvores de
decisão constrói a árvore de forma recursiva, de cima para
baixo (Han & Kamber, 2001). Inicia com o conjunto de
treinamento, que é dividido de acordo com um teste sobre
uma das variáveis independentes, formando-se subconjuntos
mais homogêneos em relação à variável dependente. Esse
procedimento é repetido até que se consiga conjuntos de
exemplos bem homogêneos, para os quais seja possível
atribuir um único valor para a variável dependente. O

Tropical Plant Pathology 33 (2) March - April 2008 117

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