Anthropogenic Climate Change

Theory and Post Normal

Science
Group 7 STS 1 WFR-1
Aranas-Caneca-Del Rosario-Del Rosario-Gonzales-Lavadia-Lopez-Nicdao-Nunez-Relova
Normal
vs.
Post-normal Science
‘Inside’ Scientific Peer Community vs. Extended Peer
Community
● Normal science’s traditional ‘inside’ scientific peer community, excludes
‘outside’ groups or persons (stakeholders) in problem solving process
● Creates a communication gap that causes distrust
● Post-normal science includes plurality of legitimate perspectives from
the ‘Extended Peer Community’
Technical Uncertainty vs. Multiple Uncertainties
● Normal science has an insufficient management of uncertainties
○ Science is value-free
○ Knowledge of technical uncertainty is sufficient to base decisions
on
● Post-normal science: methodological, epistemological and ethical
uncertainty are as explicit and integral
○ Enhances quality of information & reduces danger of
misunderstanding
Combining Normal and Post-normal science
● Normal science’s professional skills and analytical rigour
● Complemented with better uncertainty management and Extended Peer
Community from Post-normal science
● Not an attack on Normal Science, but an assistance
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Anthropogenic Climate Change

● Climate change due to human activity

● Increase in proportion of greenhouse gases
Anthropogenic Climate Change
● Causes ● Effects

○ Industrial rise ○ Deforestation

○ Human-induced activities ○ Sea-level rise

○ Massive energy use

A Brief History of
Post-normal Science and
Climate Science
19th Century

● early concepts such as Ice Age (Aggasiz) and the Greenhouse Effect (Tyndall,
Arrhenius)
● greenhouse gases → ice ages
● rapid industrialization has insignificant effects on warming
Early 20th Century

● loss of scientific interest in the climate change problem

● warming is just a natural phase
● use of fossil fuels did not contribute significantly to warming
● increasing global temperatures were anthropogenic but it was beneficial due
to delay in Ice Age (Callendar)
1940s - 1980s

● Thomas Kuhn introduced the concept of normal science in the Structure of

Scientific Revolutions (1962)
● Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring (1962) sparked rise of the environmental
movement
1940s - 1980s

● recorded increase in global temperatures and CO2 levels (Keeling)

● contribution of chlorofluorocarbons in ozone depletion
● still some climate skepticism from the media
● United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
● International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
1990s

● Silvio Funtowicz and Jerome Ravetz developed the post-normal approach

○ “Scientific Knowledge and Its Social Problems” (1971) - science as a social process
○ “Uncertainty and quality in science for policy” (1990) - NUSAP system
■ Numeral
■ Unit
■ Spread
■ Assessment
■ Pedigree
1990s - Present

● IPCC releases several reports stating that global warming is highly likely and
will have damaging future effects
○ Recently, IPCC released a special report on the impacts of global warming
above 1.5 °C
● growing occurence of intense weather incidents and record temperatures
● nations pledge to reduce carbon emissions to target levels
Scientific Revolution in Modern
Climate Science
Idea or Work Accepted as Standard Doctrine

● traditional reductionist approach of normal science

● predictability of nature using simplistic models such as general circulation
models
Articulation of Model to Address New
Problems
● general circulation models - individually-modeled parts
● linear model of climate change communication

| “Science speaks truth to power.”

● believer-denier dynamic

retrieved from
http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter10/three_cell.html
Dissatisfaction with Current Model

● public distrust regarding methodology and practices of climate scientists

● accusations of fear-mongering by the media
Dissatisfaction with Current Model
Hockey-stick controversy and Climategate

retrieved from http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global- retrieved from https://www.nature.com/articles/467157a

warming/myths/the-hockey-stick
Post-Normal Science in
IPCC
IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1995

● Different fields, countries, groups were represented

(Extended Peer Community)
● Presence of uncertainty in a scientific paper
○ Paper denoted different uncertainties in certain areas
(e.g. Figure 2 of summary)
■ Error bars: technical uncertainty
■ Confidence level: methodological uncertainty
○ Many aspects were referred to as “surprises”
Is IPCC Post-Normal?
Inconclusive (Saloranta, 2001).

However, they are largely credited for the birth and normalization of post-normal science.

Why?
● They embraced uncertainty.
● They welcomed outside opinions.
How can we apply
post-normal science in
solving issues like this?
Applying Post-Normal Science when Solving Issues
It’s (probably) easier than you think!

1. Representation
○ Different fields have different ideas
○ Urgent issues (like climate change) affect everyone, not only scientists.
○ These issues need different perspectives.

2. Explore the “unexplorable”

○ Emphasize the uncertainty; it shows the risk at stake

3. Don’t be afraid of crazy ideas

○ Not backed up by enough data? Completely goes against rules and principles of your field? It could still be a
solution.
Ideas for Solving Climate
Change
(Accd. to David Biello, 2014)
Clean Power Plants

The Clean Power Plan

aimed to cut emissions
from the electricity sector
by an estimated 32
percent below 2005 levels
by 2030
Clean Power Plants

Reducing carbon dioxide

emissions while
maintaining economic
growth by switching from
coal to natural gas
Clean Power Plants

Field Benefitted:
Electricity Sector

Research for less

emissions but fulfills
economic needs
Local Action
Aims to cut greenhouse
gas emissions by using
greener sources of
energy and implementing
energy-efficient programs
Local Action
Field Benefitted: Regions

Gain help from different

regions in attaining a clean
sustainable environment
Control of Methane Leaks
More and more states are
beginning to account for
methane, trying to capture
leaking methane from
garbage dumps, coal
mines, etc.
Control of Methane Leaks
Field Benefitted:
Industries

Examine machines and

pipelines to improve and
reduce risk of potential
leakage
Tougher Emissions and Efficiency Standards

Products being made

must comply to emit less
pollution and be more
efficient with electricity
Tougher Emissions and Efficiency Standards

Field Benefitted:
Production industry

Create better standards to

attain demand while
lessening waste
Greener Farming
Adapts farmers to climate
change, by using techniques
and methods to reduce
greenhouse emissions, for
better crop growth
Greener Farming
Field Benefitted: Agriculture

Reduce harmful ingredients

(like pesticides) and increase
quality & quantity of crops
Private Sector Action
Private businesses are
starting to use greener
means in their production,
due to climate change’s
effect on business
Private Sector Action
Field Benefitted: Private
Companies

Climate change causes

change in business models
to adapt and as a result,
have greener effects
New Kinds of Geopolitical Consensus

Different nations implement

different different
environmental plans
according to their needs
which solve environmental
issues and also help develop
the nation
New Kinds of Geopolitical Consensus
Field Benefitted: Nations

Create international
consensus taking into
account nation’s
geography and needs
References
American Institute of Physics, 2018. “The Discovery of Global Warming”. https://history.aip.org/climate/timeline.htm (Accessed on September 30, 2018).

Biello, D., 2014. “7 Solutions to Climate Change Happening Now”. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/7-solutions-to-climate-change-

happening-now/ (Accessed on Oct 02, 2018).

Krauss, W. & Schäfer, M. & Von Storch, H. 2012. “Introduction: Post-Normal Climate Science”. Nature and Culture. 7. 121-1332. 10.3167/nc.2012.070201.

Mahmoud, S. H., & Gan, T. Y., 2018. “Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.”
Science of The Total Environment, 633, 1329–1344. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.290

Mason, M. “History of the Study of Climate Change in Field of Environmental Science”. https://www.environmentalscience.org/history-climate-change
(Accessed on Sep 29, 2018).

Rahmstorf, S., 2007. “Anthropogenic Climate Change: Revisiting the Facts”. http://www.pik-
potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/Rahmstorf_Zedillo_2008.pdf (Accessed on Oct 1, 2018)

Saloranta, T.M., 2001. “Climatic Change”, 50: 395. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010636822581

Vallejo, B., .“Postnormal Science and Filipinos at Risk.” Readings in Science, Technology and Society. University of the Philippines Diliman