Estimating the number of jobs to be saved

James Doughney
Emeritus Professor of Economics
9 May 2020

Data
To estimate the number of FTE jobs to be saved by the agreement between universities, the
NTEU and the AHEIA to vary enterprise agreements requires the following data. I will
assume that readers are familiar with both the agreement and the relevant data sources
mentioned and, therefore, will not dwell on definitions and references.
This will be an Australia-wide estimate for all public institutions included in the Department of
Education, Skills and Employment’s uCube data file
(http://highereducationstatistics.education.gov.au/).
1. Maximum possible salary savings under the agreement according to the categorisation
of universities as B, A or Zero
2. A reasonable estimate of 2019 total salaries paid to academic (including sessional) and
non-academic (including casual) staff, given that:
a. 2018 is the last year for which published financial data exist
(https://www.education.gov.au/finance-publication)
b. Sessional and casual salaries are included in a. above but not distinguished
separately
c. 2017 is the last year in which sessional and casual FTE data are included in the
uCube totals that correspond to total salaries at b.
d. Proportionate growth estimates will have to be made of both academic and non-
academic FTEs, total salaries and average salaries (all including sessional and
casual)
3. Data that will allow for a reasonable estimate of the proportion of universities falling into
the categories B, A and Zero
Method
Once we have the above data (data estimates, actually), we can:
1. Determine for 2019 the maximum salary savings possible under the variation to
enterprise agreements
2. Determine from 1 the 2019 proportions attributable to academic and non-academic staff,
after:
a. Applying estimates of past 5-year average growth per annum in academic and
non-academic values of FTE, total salaries and average salaries (i.e. to estimate
2019 values of each)
b. Noting that all changes used in calculations arising from the variations to
enterprise agreements are to be compared with 2019 values
c. Making an estimate for 2020 of the number of universities in categories B, A and
Zero from the data for 22 universities provided to the technical committee that
advised negotiators
3. The determinations at 1 assume implicitly that:
a. Academic and non-academic proportions estimated for 2019 will hold in 2020

1
 b. The data provided to the technical committee are representative of the other
universities’ data and are weighted representatively
4. Finally, determine from 1-3 the FTE effects for academic (including sessional) and non-
academic (including casual) staff

Logic
The above rather tedious procedure is necessary because of differential effects of any
changes on academic and non-academic FTEs. In effect, the above allows for the following
estimations:
Academic FTE jobs saved (maximum, inc. sessional) = Maximum academic salary
saving / Average FTE academic salary (inc. sessional)
Non-academic FTE jobs saved (maximum, inc. casual) = Maximum non-academic
salary saving / Average FTE non-academic salary (inc. casual)
On the basis that:
Average FTE academic salary (inc. sessional) = Total academic salaries (inc.
sessional) / Total academic FTE (inc. sessional)
Average FTE non-academic salary (inc. sessional) = Total academic salaries (inc.
sessional) / Total non-academic FTE (inc. casual)

Results
The table below presents anticipated 2020 (full-year) estimates (see bold red):

All Australian Institutions

2018 Saved max FTE @ CATEGORY
118,250 6,102
91,657 7,091 A (if all)

13,193
118,250 9,153
91,657 10,637 B (if all)

19,790
65% 8,576 A @ % shown
25% 4,947 B @ % shown
10% 0 Zero @ % shown
100% 13,523 All

Caveats
1. These are maxima, i.e. if the maximum allowable savings in salary apply
2. The B, A and Zero categorisations are approximate and most susceptible to change