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Spe Distinguished Lecturer Series
DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES
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And special thanks to The American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical,
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Integrating Reserves and Resource
Assessment with Portfolio Management
A Hybrid Approach
John Etherington
Petroleum Resource Analysts (PRA) International Ltd.,
Calgary, Canada
2
Are reserves disclosures an isolated and
bureaucratic process in your company?
Do you need two “sets of books”
to run your business?
Are your managers (and
investors) frustrated with
with reserves writedowns?
3
Outline reserves
portfolio reporting
planning
resource
assessments
Introduction
Management Processes and Tools
Designing an Integrated System
Summary & Conclusions
4
E&P Business Model
We are in the hydrocarbon finding, developing
and producing business!
Prospect
Generation
Wildcat
Drilling
Discovery,
Appraisal,
Development
Field
Optimization
E&
P
Li Enhanced
fe
C Recovery
yc
l e Decline,
Abandonment
+
+
+
5
Managing our Business
Processes and Tools
General Oil & Gas
Inventory Cataloguing Resource Assessment
& Valuation
Bookkeeping Resource Tracking
& Reporting
Performance
Forecasting Portfolio
& Planning Management
Asset Management Hydrocarbon Resource
Management (HRM)
6
Resource Assessment Process
Uncertainty Estimated
and Risk Ultimate
Recoverable
Discovery
consistent assessments
Risk
Prospects
InPlace
Uncertainty Volume
Commercial
Discoveries Risk
Value
Recovery
Uncertainty
Commercial
Development Uncertainties Net
Projects
Present
Value
7
Resource Tracking & Reporting
Acquisitions
and
Sales
Exploration
Discoveries
Resource Subcommercial
Commercial
Possible Reserves Disclosures
Accounting are a subset of the total
System resource accounting.
Probable
total portfolio debits
and credits plus
internal Proved
Undev Dev
“reserves growth” Sales
Production
8
Portfolio Management Tools
full reserve & resource Corporate
$ Allocation Model
“opportunity inventory” Strategies
Project B
Project A
Investment
stochastic
Portfolio
Aggregation Model
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Volume Value
quantitative assessments of Portfolio
risk & uncertainty Performance
[probabilisticbased]
X
X X
X X
9
Designing a HRM System
Ø promote consistent assessment processes
§ quantify technical uncertainties & commercial risk
§ synchronize volume and value
Ø accommodate complete project inventory
Ø accept deterministic and/or probabilistic methods
Ø avoid “two sets of books”
We need a single Integrated system
10
Resource Management Data Model
synchronizing
lease
volume, value and ownership
reservoir at the “entity level”
project
11
Standard Resource Classification
>P90 >P50 >P10
Subcommercial
CONTINGENT
RESOURCES
Classification
Low Best High
Estimate Estimate Estimate
UNRECOVERABLE
Undiscovered
PROSPECTIVE
RESOURCES provides a
“bridge” between
Low Best High
Estimate Estimate Estimate deterministic &
probabilistic
UNRECOVERABLE
methods
Technical Uncertainty
12
Quantifying Project Risk
Reserves
[Chance of Achieving
Production Status within
Development 5 years]
Commercial Risk
Risk
Project Maturity
Contingent Discovered but not yet commercial due
Resources to one or more contingencies
Discovery
Risk [Chance of Discovering
Hydrocarbons]
Prospective
Resources
13
Quantifying Acquisition Risk
Owned fiscal Not Owned Not Owned
Identified terms
Identified “Unidentified”
Reserves
Discovered
development risk [Chance of
Capture]
Contingent
Resources
Acquisition
Risk
Undiscovered
discovery risk
Prospective
Resources
Total Risk = acquisition risk x discovery risk x development risk
14
Two Views of Uncertainty
Deterministic View Probabilistic View
100%
Cum Prod
P90
% probability of value or more
Monte Carlo Simulation
Discrete Scenarios
Proved
Proved Probable Possible
X
P50
1P
EUR
Probable
X
Possible
2P
P10
0%
3P cum prod
1P 2P 3P
EUR
do both! (hybrid)
15
Using Hybrids for Quality Assurance
1.0
Intercept at P80 vs >P90 target!
Cumulative Probability of “X” or greater
0.9
There is a “mismatch” in our uncertainty analysis!
0.8
0.7
0.6 Probabilistic
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2 Check both
0.1
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Proved
Probable
Deterministic
1P 2P
Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) mmbo
16
Deterministic/Probabilistic Integration
1.0
Integrate deterministic estimates with
CF1 = 0.95
probabilistic distribution to derive
Cumulative Probability of “X” or greater
0.9
0.8 average confidence factors (CF)
0.7 CF2 = 0.74
Proved
0.6
0.9
0.8
Proved EV (Mean) = Pvd(0.95) + Prob(0.7) + Poss(0.3)
0.7
0.6 “Probabilistic”
0.5
Probable X
0.4
0.3
default CF values based
0.2 Possible on local calibration tests
0.1
0.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Proved
Probable
Possible Deterministic
1P 2P 3P
Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR)
18
Integrating Regulatory Disclosure Rules
e.g. “SEC Proved” reserves
n Discovery Criteria
n Economic Criteria:
more conservative
n Volume Extent: deterministic criteria?
n Improved Recovery
SEC
Proved SPE/SEC Hybrid
SPE 2P minus SEC Proved
= revised SPE Probable
19
Hybrid Assessments – Input/ Output
continuous distribution
1P
Mean = 52
probabilistic
assessment
2P X
3P
17 44 100
probabilistic &/or
X commercial risk deterministic
deterministic applications
assessment Proved Probable Possible
discretized matrix
20
Resource Accounting/Material Balance
sales and nonsales quantities
Produced 5
Economic Economic??
Economic
Not Not
& Committed
+ Committed Committed
Reserves Contingent Resources
Remaining
“Recoverable” 55 25 20 10
Waterflood EOR
+ Primary
development projects
Unrecoverable 40
=
InitiallyInPlace 100
mean of distributions
21
Resource Tracking & Reporting
Prospective
Resources
Acquisitions
New Field
Discoveries
Property
Sales
C. Resources Possible
Reserves
Reconcile changes
to maintain
Probable
material balance
Proved
Undev Dev Sales
Production
22
Probabilistic vs Arithmetic Aggregation
P90 = 30
150
Arithmetic Sum
100 (deterministic)
Cumulative Probability of “X” or greater
reserves disclosures
P90
200
“portfolio Probabilistic X
EV Aggregate X X
effect” X X X
portfolio analysis
P10
0
Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) mmbo
23
Quality Assurance & Quality Control
“Independent”
Chief Board of Directors Reserves Committee
Executive
Officer
Technical
Manager
Internal Resource External
Management Group Evaluators
Business
Unit Resource
Staff Coordinators
24
Summary
The key is the data model.
“Project” synchronizes volume and value.
SPE classification provides a standard framework.
Modifications quantify commercial risk.
Hybrid methods quantify technical uncertainty
for resource accounting & portfolio management.
Resource management teams ensure corporatewide
assessment consistency and quality.
25
Conclusions
Hybrid Resources
Assessments
Integrated
There is only
QA/QC one set of
books!
Project Database
Hydrocarbon
Resource
Management
Portfolio Resource Tracking
System Management And Reporting
reserves
disclosures
26
You now have a happy manager!
27
Key References
SPE Reserve and Resource Definitions and Glossary (www.spe.org)
Guidelines for Evaluation of Petroleum Reserves & Resources (SPE 2001)
SPE 38803: An Integrated Deterministic/Probabilistic Approach to Reserves
Estimation – An Update; L.B. Hunt et al. 1997
SPE 68573: SPE/WPC/AAPG Resource Definitions as a Basis for Portfolio
Management; J.M. Ross 2001
SPE 71424: Aggregating Reserves and Resources for Portfolio Management;
J.R. Etherington et al. 2001
28