DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING

Hydraulic and Water Resource Engineering

Department
Flood and Drought Management

February, 2012 E.C

Debre Markos, Ethiopia

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 Topic outlines
 1.OVERVIEW OF HYDRO-CLIMATIC HAZARDS

 2.ORIGIN AND, NATURE OF HYDRO-CLIMATIC HAZARDS

 3.MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION OF HAZARDS/DISASTERS

 4.INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

 5.CASE STUDIES: LOCAL, NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND

INTERNATIONAL

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 Chapter 1.
1.1 OVERVIEW OF HYDRO-CLIMATIC HAZARDS

• Hydro-climatic hazard/disasters are responsible for the

serious disruption of the functioning of a society or
community and widespread human, material or
environmental losses.
• Some of the hazards : flood, drought, thunder storm.
hurricanes tornados, frost heat waves EL-Ninos events
Hazard: any direct and indirect causes and factors that eventually
lead to disaster
Disaster :It’s the state of society being damaged in the whole sense of
physically, vitally, physiologically , economically and socio-culturally
N.B .yet unless distinguished consider in this portion having the
same meaning
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• Hazards are non deterministic , random /stochastic/
events. and entertain these events by probability
and statistical theories.
• Statistically hazards categories as extreme events
tend to appear on the tail of probability distribution
• Any Hazards triggered by nature Called natural
hazards ,in contrast caused by directly by human
activities or social misshape called
technological/social hazard

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Some basic terminology definition and relation in
hydro- climatic hazards

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 Cont’
ix. flood risk :the general probability that a location or an area will
be flood expressed as a frequency of occurrence
x. Flood prone: with high flood risk
xi. Flood pulse: the shape of the hydrograph during a seasonal
flood

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 Types of Hazards
1. Ongoing and Rapid/sudden-onset.
• accidental oil spills, nuclear plant failures, and chemical
plant accidents, geological hazards and hydro-
meteorological hazards (except drought)
2. Slow-onset (or “creeping”)
• are incremental in long term progressive cumulative of
effect such as
Air and water quality, soil pollution, acid rain, climate
change, desertification processes (including soil
erosion and land degradation), droughts
 Hydro-climatic hazards can be divided in to two parts.

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 Con…
1.Hydrological Hazards: driven by hydrological (water)process
(drought , flood ,mud slide, tsunami)
2.Meteorological Hazards: driven by metrological (weather)
processes (rain ,wind ,temperature…)
Cyclones(hurricanes, typhoon ),freezing rain ,Tornadoes,
cold/Heat wave,
Not hydro climatic hazard
3. Geological Hazards : driven by geological processes in particular
plate ,tectonic includes earth quakes and volcanic eruption
“Tsunamis,”
UN natural Hazard
4.Technological Hazard: A hazard originating from technological
or industrial conditions, including accidents, dangerous
procedures, infrastructure failures

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 ??????????
.

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 Cont’
Most common hazards
• Flood
• Drought
• Tropical cyclone/hurricanes
• Tornado
• Heat/cold waves
• Earth quakes
• tsunamis

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 Con…
1.2 Social, economic and Environmental impacts flood and
drought
• Extreme floods And drought have serious social and
economic impacts.
• The most important consequence of floods is the loss of life
and property, Structures like houses, bridges; roads etc. get
damaged by the gushing water, landslides triggered on
account of water getting saturated, boats and fishing nets
get damaged.
• Drought is known to have a low on set making it more
predictable than flood. it is difficult to tell when drought
starts and ends. i.e considered to be slow-creeping hazard
with devastating impacts
13
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 Con…
After a disaster a community goes through four phases that
overlap:
1,the emergency period,
2,the restoration period,
3, the replacement reconstruction period, and
4, in memory betterment period.
the negative impact flood:
 Loss of life, property, crops and livestock's
 Epidemic Disease and related to interrupted water supply and
sanitation
 Damage to buildings and different types of infra structure
 Pollution caused by flooding of waste deposits ,storage facilities
 Erode top fertile soil of the land
 Disrupting of livelihood and education

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Yet there are some benefits of flood
Improve the soil of low land by nourishing it
Maintenance of fish yield
Preservation of wetlands ecosystem
Disaster management focus basically on these
Mitigation
Preparedness
Response and recovery
reconstruction
Flood risks are a function of exposure of the people and the
economic activities along with the vulnerability of social and
economic fabric
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 Mapping of flood

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 con…

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 Con…
(1) consequences for human health including
death, physical injury, disease transmission,
malnutrition and loss of morale;
(2) consequences for agriculture; and
(3) Impacts on housing and infrastructure. The
duration and significance of the impacts
depend on the levels.

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1.3 Benefits and costs of early warning and
preparedness
• Warning systems provide information about possible future
natural hazards, or natural disasters, which may threaten
injury or loss of life and damage to property.

• There are six factors that determine the gross benefits of a

warning system
 Frequency
 Severity
 Lead time
 Accuracy
 Response
 Loss reduction
Early warning system cost
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(1)Frequency – is the natural hazard common or
rare?
(2) Severity – what is the magnitude of the risk to
life or the damage to property that the hazard
could cause?
(3) Lead-time – given when the warning is issued,
what responses are possible?
(4) Accuracy – is the warning correct?
(5) Response Costs – what are the costs of possible
responses to the warning?
(6) Loss Reduction: how much are the expected
costs of the disaster reduced, given the likely
public response to the warning?
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 Con…
Early Warning System Cost
Obviously, if this cost is low relative to the gross benefits of
the warning system, the net benefits of the system will be
large, and conversely.
These systems are more than prediction tools since it
encompasses
Risk knowledge-prior knowledge of the drought risk faced
by communities
Warning service-technical monitoring and perdition service
for these drought risk
Dissemination-dissemination understandable warning to
those at risk
Response capability-knowledge and preparedness to act by
those threatened
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 Disaster preparedness
Involves forecasting and taking precautionary measures
prior to an imminent threat when advance warnings are
possible.
Preparedness planning improves the response to the
effects of a disaster by organizing the delivery of timely
and effective rescue, relief and assistance.
Disaster preparedness minimizes the adverse effects of a
hazard through effective precautionary actions,
rehabilitation and recovery to ensure the timely,
appropriate and effective organization and delivery of
relief and assistance following a disaster
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 CHAPTER-TWO
2. Origin and, nature of hydro-climatic hazards
(flood and drought)
 Floods can be such devastating disasters that anyone
can be affected at almost any time.
 Statistical analysis can be undertaken to attempt to
determine the probability and frequency of high
discharges(flood).
 Flood can be modeled and mapped to determine the
extent of possible flooding
 Floods result from meteorological and hydrological
extremes.
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What defines drought as a disaster? 23
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 2.1 meteorological regimes
The meteorological causes of floods may be
grouped into four broad categories:
(a) small-scale rainstorms -causing flash floods;
(b) widespread storms- causing flooding on a
regional scale;
(c) conditions leading to snowmelt; and
(d) floods resulting from ice jams.
• Assessment of meteorological hazards should
invariably go through the following steps.

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 Con…
a) Forecasting and warning needs
• Location of area at risk  requires lead time
• Type of forecast or warning requires accuracy
(b) Data collection
• Number of satellite pictures available
(c) Processing and analysis of data;
(d) Transmission of data
•Availability and types of transmission system
• Reliability
• Timeliness;

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2.2 Hydrological regimes
 Several hydrological processes can lead to flooding.
 The factors affecting the flood of a catchment may be
broadly classified into two categories:
 Climatic factors
Physiographic factors

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The climatic factors The physiographic
include factors are
- Intensity of rainfall - Land use
- Duration of rainfall - Type of soil
- Areal distribution of rainfall - Area of the basin
- Direction of storm - Shape of the basin
movement - Slope
- Antecedent precipitation - -Storage
Other climatic factors that -characteristics of
affect evapotranspiration the basin
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 2.3 Physical Characteristics of floods
• Important characteristics in terms of the physical hazard
posed by a particular flood:
 The depth of water and its spatial variability
 The areal extent of inundation
 The water velocity and its spatial variability
 Duration of flooding
 suddenness of onset of flooding;
 capacity for erosion and sedimentation

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 Cont’d…

Area of Inundation
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2.4 Measurement of inland flood Techniques
• Stream flow rates can be measured directly (discharge
measurement) or indirectly (stage measurement or
slope-area measurement)
• The flow-rate measurements may, therefore, be
plotted against stage measurements to produce a
rating curve.
h h 
Q  ch  h0  1 3  h2
2
n
h0 
h1  h2  2h2 
• Once the rating curve is established, continuous or
periodic stage measurements made either
automatically or manually, can be converted to
estimates of discharge.
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 2.4.1 Frequency of Flooding
• FREQUENCY ANALYSIS is the hydrologic term used to
describe the probability of occurrence of a particular
hydrologic event.(flood ,drought ,rainfall etc)
• Flood frequencies can be determined for any given
stream if data is available for discharge of the stream
over an extended period of time.
• From the data recurrence interval can be determined
and a probability calculated for the likelihood of a given
discharge in the stream for any year.
• The number of years of record, n, and the rank for each
peak discharge are then used to calculate recurrence
interval, R by the following equation, called the Weibull
equation:
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 Why Frequency Analysis?
for the design of dams, bridges, culvert, and flood control
structures.
to delineate flood plains.
to determine the economic value of flood control
projects.
to determine the effect of encroachments on the flood
plain.
basic knowledge about probability (e.g. distribution
functions, plotting position) and statistics (e.g. measure
of location, measure of spread, measure of skewness,
etc) is essential

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 Con…
• R = (n+1)/m
•The probability, Pe, of a certain discharge can
be calculated using the inverse of the Weibull
equation: plotting position Pe = m/(n+1)
•The value, Pe, is called the annual exceedance
probability

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 T =1/P EX. Plotting
Order Flood position(P)
No. magnitud Weibull California T
m e m3/s (1/P)
1 160 51 50 1/51
2 135 25.5 25 1/25.5
3 128 17 17 1/17
4 116 12.75 12.5
…..

…..

…..

…..

…..
…

…
…

…
49 65 1.04 1.02 1/1.04
50 63 1.02 1 1/1.02
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 2.4.2 Distributions (probability distribution)
• 1.Disccret distribution
• 2. Continuous distribution
• Normal family
e.g Normal, lognormal, lognormal III
• Generalize extreme value family
e.g EVI (Gumbel),EVII and EVIII (Weibul)
• Exponential /Pearson type family
e.g Exponential , Pearson type II ,Logpearson type III

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 PDF and CDF
Cumulative Distribution Function & Probable Distribution
Function

xo
Pr( X  xo )  
-
f ( x) dx

How to use a PDF/CDF a. Selection of reasonable & simple distribution.

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b. Estimation of parameters in distribution. 38
c. Assessment of risk with reasonable accuracy.
 Statistical parameter
• Describe the statistical distribution characteristics of a
sample
• Measurement of location/ Central tendency/
Mean, median, mode
The 1st moment about the origin
It Represent the concentration of the distribution about
the central value. For Discrete
MEAN data
For continuous
data
• Measure of spread
Standard deviation , variance
• The second moment about the mean it represent the
variability of data
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 Cont-
For Discrete For Continuous
data data

Measure of skewness
The third moment about the mean. it represent the symmetry
of the distribution. For Continuous For Discrete
data data

Kurtosis
The fourth moment of the data about the mean. It represent
congestion or grouping at the central place.

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 Flow Frequency
• FDC that is the relationship between any given discharge and
the percentage of time that the discharge is exceeded.
• The FDC only applies for the period for which it was derived.
If this is a long period, say more than 10 to 20 years, the FDC
may be regarded as a probability curve or flow frequency
curve, which may be used to estimate the percentage of time
that a specified discharge will be equaled or exceeded in the
future
• The shape of the FDC gives a good indication of a
catchment’s *An initially steeply sloped curve results from a
very variable discharge, usually from small catchments with
little storage where the stream flow reflects directly the
rainfall pattern.
• FDC that have very flat slope indicate little variation in flow
regime or the resultant of the damping effects of large
storages.
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 % exceeded
Month Discharge (m3/s) Rank(m) Discharge
m/n
Jan 106.7 1 1200 8.33
Feb 107.1 2 964.7 16.67
Mar 148.2 3 497 25.00
Apr 497 4 338.6 33.33
May 1200 5 177.6 41.67
Jun 964.7 6 148.2 50.00
Jul 338.6 7 142.7 58.33
Aug 177.6 8 141 66.67
Sep 141 9 141 75.00
Oct 141 10 126.6 83.33
Nov 142.7 11 107.1 91.67
Dec 126.6 12 106.7 100
Average flow 340.93

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 FDC
1400

1200

1000

800

Series1
600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

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 Frequency Analysis & Data
Space-Independent • Adequate
Hydrologic Data • Accurate
Time-Independent
• Relevance
Severe Storm
(i) The annual series, and
(ii) The partial duration series.
Extreme Events Flood
Drought

Magnitude

Frequency Analysis Probability Dist.

Frequency of
Design (Dam, Bridge, etc.)
Occurrence
Determine Economic
Value
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 2.4.3 Flood Probability
• If probability analysis is to provide reliable answers,
it must start with a data series that is
 relevant, means
 adequate, means
 accurate means
• There are two data series of floods:
(i) The annual series, and
(ii) The partial duration series.( Peak Over Threshold
POT)

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• Chow has shown that most frequency-distribution
functions applicable in hydrologic studies can be
expressed by the following equation known as the
general equation of hydrologic frequency analysis
XT=X+K𝛔
• K =frequency factor which depends upon the return period,
T and the assumed frequency distribution
• σ = standard deviation of the variant

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 2.4.4 Precipitation probability
• Generally flood probability apply to precipitation.
Annual maximum hourly or daily amounts ordinarily
conform to Gumbel Type I, Log-Pearson or Log-
Normal distribution.
• In humid areas, where the mean is high, monthly,
seasonal, or annual totals will approximate a
normal distribution.
• In drier areas a skew distribution such as the Log-
Pearson, Log-Normal may give a better fit.

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General form of a probability distribution
• For estimation of large return period, extreme event
probability distributions are applicable.
General form of a probability distribution:

Where XT = value of the variate X of a

random hydrologic series with a return
period T,
X = mean of the variate,
σ = standard deviation of the variate,
K = frequency factor which depends upon
the return period, T and the assumed
frequency distribution.
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 Extreme –Value Type I (Gumblel’s) Distribution
• It is one of the most widely used probability
distribution functions for extreme values in hydrologic
and meteorological studies for prediction of flood
peaks, maximum rainfalls, and maximum wind speed,
etc.
• Therefore, this extreme value theory of Gumbel is only
applicable to annual extremes
• In Gumbel’s method, the data are ranked in
descending order and it makes use of the probability
of non-exceedence q=1-P (the probability that the
annual maximum flow is less than a certain
magnitude). The return period T is therefore given by T
= 1 / P = 1 / (1-q).
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 Probability Distribution Function
Extreme Value Type I (Gumbel’s Distribution)
Cumulative Distribution Function(CFD) Reduced Variate, y :

x  x 
F(x)  exp[ exp( )] y
 
  x   CDF :
Parameters : F(x)  exp[ exp(y)]
6s 1
  P(X  XTr )
 Tr Tr  1
F(XTr ) 
 1 P(X  XTr ) Tr
  x  0.5772
 1 F(XTr )
Exceedence probability = 1/Tr and F(x) becomes probability of non
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exceedence
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 EV I
The general format EV I

Where σn-1 = standard deviation of the sample

K = frequency factor
In which yT = reduced variate, a function of T
and is given by
yn = reduced mean, a function of sample size N and is
given in Table
Sn = reduced standard deviation, a function of sample
size N and is given in Table
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To estimate Flood magnitude corresponding to a
given return period based on annual flood series..
Assemble the discharge data and note the sample
size N. Here the annual flood value is the variate X.
Find x and σn-1 for the given data.
determine Yn and Sn appropriate to given N.
Find YT for a given T .
Find K .
 Determine the required XT

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Reduced mean in Gumbel’s extreme value distribution, N= sample
size

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: Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumball's extreme value distribution,
N=samplesize

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 Example(EVI)
Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for the period
1951 to 1977 is given below. Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-
value distribution fit the recorded values. Estimate the flood
discharge with return period of (i) 100 years and (ii) 150 years.

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 Example

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32.6)
Example
For N=27 Yn Sn is 0.5332 & 1.0014 respectively

Return
Period XT
5 5522
10 6498
20 7436
=6498
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Extrapolated
Return
Period XT
100 9557.72
150

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• In addition to the analysis of maximum extreme events,
there also is a need to analyze minimum extreme events;
e.g. the occurrence of droughts. The probability
distribution of Gumbel probability distribution, does not
have a lower limit; meaning that negative values of events
may occur.
• As rainfall or river flows do have a lower limit of zero,
neither the Gumbel nor Gaussian distribution is an
appropriate tool to analyze minimum value. Because the
logarithmic function has a lower limit of zero, it is often
useful to first transform the series to its logarithmic value
before applying the theory. Appropriate tools for analyzing
minimum flows or rainfall amounts are the Log-Normal,
Log-Gumbel, or Log-Pearson distributions.
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 Log-Pearson Type-III
This distribution is widely used in USA. In this distribution the
variate is first transformed into logarithmic form (base 10)
and the transformed data is then analyzed. If X is the variate
of a random hydrologic series, then the series of Z variates
Where:
Z = log x
Where Kz = a frequency factor which is a function of recurrence interval T and the
coefficient of skew Cs

Cs = 0, the Log-Pearson Type III distribution reduces to Log-normal distribution

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Table 7.6 Kz=F(Cs,T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III Distribution

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year X z=log(x) Year X z=log(x)
1951 2947 3.46938 1965 4366 3.640084
1952 3521 3.546666 1966 3380 3.528917
1953 2399 3.38003 1967 7826 3.89354
1954 4124 3.615319 1968 3320 3.521138
1955 3496 3.543571 1969 6599 3.819478
1956 2947 3.46938 1970 3700 3.568202
1957 5060 3.704151 1971 4175 3.620656
1958 4903 3.690462 1972 2988 3.475381
1959 3751 3.574147 1973 2709 3.432809
1960 4798 3.68106 1974 3873 3.588047
1961 4290 3.632457 1975 4593 3.662096
1962 6552 3.816374 1976 6761 3.830011
1963 5050 3.703291 1977 1971 3.294687
1964 6900 3.838849
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 XT
T Kz Kz𝛔 Zt (antilog)
100 2.358 0.3365 3.9436 8782
200 2.616 0.3733 3.9804 9559

The value of K from table for each return period and

skewness coefficient of 0.043

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 Confidence Limits for the Fitted Data
• Since the value of the variate for a given return period, xT
determined by a given distribution can have errors due to
the limited sample data used; an estimate of the confidence
limits of the estimate is desirable.

• The confidence interval indicates the limits about the

calculated value between which the true value can be said
to lie with a specific probability based on sampling errors
only.
For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of
the variate xT is bound by value x1 and x2 given by

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x1/2 = xT± f (c) Se 67
Where f(c) = function of the confidence probability c
determined by using the table of normal variate

K= frequency factor

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 Example.1

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 2.4.5 Risk Analysis
• Natural inherent risk of failure The probability of
occurrence of an event (x≥xT) at least once over a period of
n successive years is called the risk, R . Thus the risk is
given by R = 1 -(probability of non-occurrence of the event
x≥xT in n years)

n
 1
R  1  1  
 T
n ⇒could be the design period of
the structure or economical life
R T Q
• Consideration of Risk
– Structure may fail if event exceeds T–year design magnitude
– R = P(event occurs at least once in n years)
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• Safety Factor: addresses uncertainties associated
with structural, constructional, operational and
environmental causes as well as from non-
technological considerations such as economic,
sociological and political causes.
• Thus , any water resource development project will
have a safety factor for a given hydrological
parameter M as defined below.
Safety factor (Sm)

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 Cont’d…

3/4/2020 Risk Hazard Mapping 73

 Example Risk
• Dataset – annual maximum discharge for 106
years on a River
xT = 200,000 cfs
600
No. of occurrences = 3
500
Annual Max Flow (10 3 cfs)

2 recurrence intervals
400 in 106 years
300
T = 106/2 = 53 years
200

100
If xT = 100, 000 cfs
0
1905 1908 1918 1927 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 7 recurrence intervals
Year
P( X ≥ 100,000 cfs at least once in the next 5 years) = 1- (1-1/15.2)5 = T = 106/7 = 15.2 yrs
0.29
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 Example
• Expected life of culvert = 10 yrs  1
n

R  1  1  
• Acceptable risk of 10 % for the  T
culvert capacity 10
• Find the design return period  1
0.10  1  1  
 T
T  95 yrs
 What is the chance that the culvert designed for an event of 95
yr return period will not have its capacity exceeded for 50 yrs?
The risk associated with failure of culvert when the flow exceed 95
yr flood in the next 95 years is:
50
 1  The chance that the capacity will not be
R  1  1  
 95 
R  0.41 exceeded during the next 50 yrs is
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 Example
A bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is designed
for a flood magnitude of return period 100 years. (a) What
is the risk of this hydrological design? (b) If 10% risk is
acceptable, what return period will have to be adopted?

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 Low Flow Analysis
• The objective of low-flow analysis is to estimate the
frequency or probability with which stream flow in a
given reach will be less than various levels.
Thus the flow-duration curve( is an important
tool of low-flow analysis)
From FDC one can readily determine the flow associated
with any exceedance or non-exceedance probability.
Low Steam Flows
Most of the time, the flow exceeded 95% of the time, q95,
is a useful index of water availability that is often used for
design purposes.
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Low-flow quantize values are cited as "dQp," where p
is now the annual non-exceedence probability (in
percent) for the flow averaged over d-days

• "7QI0,“ for a recurrent interval of 10yr

In any year there is a 10% probability that the lowest
7-consecutive-day average flow will be less than the
7QIO value.

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 2.5 DROUGHT

• What is Drought?
• Drought is either absence or deficiency of
rainfall from its normal pattern in a region for
an extended period of time leading to general
suffering in the society.
• The more the imbalance in supply the higher is
the drought.

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 Con…
• The following will help explaining this general
definition of the drought further.
It is a slow on-set disaster and it is difficult to
demarcate the time of its onset and the end.
Any unusual dry period which results in a shortage of
useful water.
Drought is negative balance between precipitation
and water use (through evaporation, transpiration by
plants, domestic and industrial uses etc.) in a
geographical region.
Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate.

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 2.5.1 causes of drought
• Can you think of what causes drought?
• Though drought is basically caused by deficit rainfall,
which is a meteorological phenomenon, it manifests
into different spheres because of various vulnerability
factors associated with them.
• General Characteristics
 Types of droughts
• Drought proceeds in sequential manner. Its
impacts are spread across different domains as
listed below.

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Meteorological drought
• It is simple absence/deficit of rainfall from the
normal. It is the least severe form of drought and is
often identified by sunny days and hot weather.
Hydrological drought
• Often leads to reduction of natural stream flows or
ground water levels, plus stored water supplies. The
main impact is on water resource systems.
Agricultural drought
This form of drought occurs when moisture level in soil
is insufficient to maintain average crop yields
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• An extreme agricultural drought can lead to a famine,
which is a prolonged shortage of food in a restricted
region causing widespread disease and death from
starvation.
Socio-economic drought
• Socio-economic drought correlates the supply and
demand of goods and services with the three above-
mentioned types of drought. When the supply of
some goods or services such as water and electricity
are weather dependent then drought may cause
shortages in supply of these economic goods.

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 Con…
Can you think of some more vulnerability
factors to drought?
Low soil moisture holding capacity
 Absence of irrigation facilities
 Livestock without adequate fodder storage
facilities
 Poor water management
 Deforestation
Over grazing
Water consuming cropping patterns
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Excessive ground water draft
 Soil erosion
 Population growth and urbanization
 Industrialization
 Global warming
2.5.2 Typical adverse effects
Drought, different from any other natural
disaster, does not cause any structural damages

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 Con…
• As the meteorological drought turns into
hydrological drought, the impacts start
appearing first in agriculture which is most
dependent on the soil moisture.
• The impacts slowly spread into social fabric as
the availability of drinking water diminishes,
reduction in energy production, ground water
depletion, food shortage, health reduction and
loss of life, increased poverty, reduced quality
of life and social unrest leading to migration.
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 2.5.3 Possible Risk Reduction Measures
• There are various mitigation strategies to cope
up with drought.
a) Public Awareness and education
If the community is aware of the do’s and don’ts,
then half of the problem is solved. This includes
awareness on the availability of safe drinking
water, water conservation techniques,
agricultural drought management strategies like
crop contingency plans, construction of rain
water harvesting structure.
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b) Drought Monitoring
It is continuous observation of the rainfall situation,
availability of water in the reservoirs, lakes, rivers etc.
and comparing with the existing water needs in various
sectors of the society.
c) Water supply augmentation and conservation
Through rainwater harvesting in houses and farmers'
fields increases the content of water available.
d) Expansion of irrigation
Land use based on its capability helps in optimum use
of land and water
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e) Livelihood planning
Identifies those livelihoods which are least
affected by the drought .
f) Drought planning
The basic goal of drought planning is to improve
the effectiveness of preparedness and response
efforts by enhancing monitoring, mitigation and
response measures.

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 2.5.4 Drought Severity
• The demand for economic goods is increasing as a
result of increasing population and per capita
consumption
• The common consequences of severe droughts a
 Wildfires.
 Migration or relocation of those impacted.
Competition for resources leading to Social unrest,
War
Disease.
Famine due to lack of water for irrigation

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 2.5.5 Drought management
• Socio-economic and environmental
consequences of extreme droughts can be as
severe as the impacts of extreme floods,
particularly in case of several successive dry
years,
• Good management can highly reduce the
general vulnerability and the actual damage
caused by drought.
• Drought management can be divided into the
following components:
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Components Urban Rural domestic Cultivation
Strategic Preparedness Preparedness Preparedness
Operational Response Response Response

• In broad general, the strategic preparedness

aims at a reduced vulnerability and preparations
for an appropriate response.
• The strategic preparedness can comprise elements
such as:
• A knowledge-base (of weather, crops and cultivation);
• Education in order to support the drought-related
decision process
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• streamlining of the management framework
(clarifying 'who does what', and assuring a
smooth flow of data and information); and
• suitable contingency plans and response
tactics.
• During a drought, the management aim shifts
from value optimization to risk minimization.

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• A close collaboration with farmers,
including small-scale farmers, should be
maintained throughout strategy
formulation and contingency planning.
Drought Early Warning System
• An Early Warning System (EWS) is a
comprehensive monitoring framework for
early detection and response to environmental
threats
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 2.5.6 Drought Characterization

Drought can be characterized by the following

terms
• Duration, D = length of period for which X <X0;
• Severity, S = cumulative deviation from X0;
• Intensity (or magnitude), I = S/D.

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 2.5.7 Drought Analysis
• Drought definition:- A time series of a selected quantity, X (e.g.,
precipitation, stream flow, ground water level), averaged over an
appropriate dt. The quantitative definition of drought is
determined by the truncation level, X0, selected by the analyst:
Values of X < X0 are defined as droughts.

What type of drought of interest?

Averaging Period:-drought analysis requires selection of an averaging period (dt).

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 2.5.8 Drought Characteristics
Once the severities, durations, and intensities of “drought”
have been determined for a given time series, the
magnitude-frequency characteristics of each of those
quantities can be analyzed.

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 2.5.9 Low Flow Analysis

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 Find the 7 day 10yr low flow?
(Log Pearson Type III)

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2.5.10 Types of Random Variable distribution
Probabilistic
Outcome of a hydrologic event (e.g., rainfall amount &
duration; flood peak discharge; wave height, etc.) is random
and cannot be predicted with certainty.
The variables can be
1Discret

2.Continous
For a continuous random variable,
fX(x)
x
Probability distribution function
KT s

P( X  xT ) 
1
and f(x) ≥ 0 for all values of x
T


xT
x 
-
f ( x ) dx  1
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 Return Period
Plotting Positions
Mostly applicable for short return period (T) extrapolations

What is the probability that a Tr-year return period event will occur at
least once in N years?

P(X  xTr at least once in N years) = 1-(1-p)N or

P(X  xTr at least once in N years) = 1-[1-(1/Tr)]N

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 Economic Design

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 Cont’d…

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 CHAPTER-THREE
3.Management and mitigation of hazards/disasters
(flood)
• Floods can be managed through structural and non structural
interventions (dikes, barrages, diversion canals, dams and
reservoirs and flood forecasting public awareness, and early
warning system)
• Disaster Risk Management includes sum total of all activities,
programmes and measures which can be taken up before, during and
after a disaster with the purpose to avoid a disaster, reduce its
impact or recover from its losses
• The three key stages of activities that are taken up within disaster
risk management are:

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a). Before a disaster (pre-disaster).
• Activities taken to reduce human and property losses
caused by a potential hazard
b). During a disaster (disaster occurrence).
Initiatives taken to ensure that the needs and provisions
of victims are met and suffering is minimized.
c). After a disaster (post-disaster)
• Initiatives taken in response to a disaster with a
purpose to achieve early recovery and rehabilitation of
affected communities, immediately after a disaster
strikes.

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3.1 Hazard Maps, Risk Information and Education
• Flood hazard mapping is used to determine the areas
susceptible to flooding when discharge of a stream
exceeds the bank-full stage.
• Communication is critical during an emergency and
needs to be addressed thoroughly within the disaster-
response plan.
• Mapping is a central tool in communicating hazard
identification and assessment

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 3.2 Possible Flood Risk Reduction
Measures
 Mapping of the flood prone areas
 Land use control
 Construction of engineering structures
 Flood Control
 Flood Management
-Flood management can aim at
(i) a reduced risk of floods;
(ii) a reduced vulnerability to floods;
(iii) improved preparedness;
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• (iv) streamlined emergency management once a
flood damage has occurred; and
• (v) improved knowledge (about cause-effect
relationships, driving forces and management
options);
Good flood management would take its starting
point in a suitable knowledge about
(i) the flood risk (so that high-risk areas are
delineated); and
(ii) the flood vulnerability (so that the most
important potential consequences are identified).
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Various possible flood hazard mitigation options to
manage urban flood risks are summarized below:
Reducing local floods by inducing infiltration
through:
 preservation of unsealed areas,
 preservation of natural ponds,
 Retaining/ transferring local floods:
 minor and major urban drainage system
 rainwater harvesting

 detention and retention basins

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 CON…

Preventing storm water contamination:

 Strict separation of sewage and storm water

drainage.
protect potential contamination sources
(sewage plants, landfills, patrol stations etc.)
against floods.

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 3.3 Strategic approach
Prevention and preparedness approaches are:
• Structural measures:
Infrastructure, environmental shield, retrofitting
• Nonstructural measures: Poverty alleviation,
empowerment of disadvantaged groups, capacity
building, risk transfer, insurance.
• Among these non-structural measures are:
Floodplain zoning *Mortgage limitations
Floodplain building codes
Floodplain buyout programs
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 3.4 Early warning
• Early warning systems are often described in
terms of the detection, warning
dissemination, response, recovery and review
stages.
• In many cases, a forecasting component will
also be included, and preparedness is
essential for an effective emergency
response.
• Early warning systems help to reduce
economic losses and mitigate the number of
injuries or deaths from a disaster
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 Con…
• Early warning information empowers people
to take action when a disaster close to
happening.
There are three main sections in flood warning
systems.
• Part I – Flood Warning, which discusses the
topics of detection, thresholds and
dissemination.

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 Con…
• Part II – Flood Forecasting, which discusses
general principles, specific types of river and
coastal forecasting models, and examples of
specific applications.
• Part III – Emergency Response, which covers
the topic of preparedness, response and review.
The Flood Warning Process
Flood warning systems provide a well-established way to help
to reduce risk to life, and to allow communities and the
emergency services time to prepare for flooding.
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components of a flood warning, forecasting and emergency
response system

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 Con…
• Clearly, a warning is successful if it initiates action
which prevents flooding which might otherwise
have occurred in the absence of that warning; for
example by triggering the closure of a tidal
barrier, or installation of a temporary defense.
The Nature of Flood Risk
• Flooding is a threat to many communities and
businesses, and flood risk is increasing in some
locations due to development on floodplains.
• The causes of flooding are mainly atmospheric or
geotechnical
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 Assessing Flood Risk
• Flood risk is often expressed as the
combination of two factors;
*probability (or hazard)
 the likelihood of damaging flood levels or
flows being reached
* consequence (or impact).
numbers of properties affected, loss of life,
or economic damages
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 Con…
• Risk is a “measure of the expected losses
due to a hazard event occurring in a given
area over a specific time period.
• Risk is a function of the probability of
particular hazardous event and the losses
each would cause.
 The level of risk depends upon:
• Nature of the hazard
• Vulnerability of the elements which are affected
• Economic value of those elements
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 Con…
Risk = (Hazard X Vulnerability)/Capacity
Disaster = Hazard + Vulnerability
• Vulnerability - A set of conditions resulting from
physical, social, economic and environmental
factors that increase the susceptibility of a
community to the impact of disasters or the
characteristics of a person or group in terms of their
capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover
from the impact of a natural hazard.
• Disaster Risk (or recipe for disaster) has
been presented by Ward, 1999 as follows:
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 Con…
• Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Manageability
• Manageability here stands for the degree to
which a community can intervene and
manage a hazard in order to reduce its
potential impact.
• This implies that based on people's
perception of their disaster risk, they are able
to make decisions to adapt to, modify or
ignore the risk.
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 Con…
• Manageability is synonymous to Capacity so we
can substitute to have the following disaster risk
formula:
• Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Capacity
Flood risk modelling
The national flood risk mapping programmes in
many countries use a range of modeling techniques
to estimate flood depths, velocities and extents.

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 3.5 Emergency Response
• Emergency response is the process of responding
to a flood event, ideally on the basis of a flood
warning received.
• There are a vast number of responses that ought to
be considered. Each response depends upon the
nature of the threat.
Some of the broader categories of response for
a variety of hazards include:
 Evacuation procedures
 Search and rescue
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 Con…
 Security of affected areas
 Assessment teams
 Activating special installations (such as emergency
hospital facilities)
 Activating distribution systems
 preparing emergency reception centers and shelters
 Activating emergency programs for airports, harbors and
land transport

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 3.6 Flood Emergency Planning
• Flood Emergency Plans describe the actions to
take between, during and following flood events,
and typically cover operational procedures,
emergency response assets, contact details for key
staff, health and safety issues, procedures for
liaison with the media and the public, and
information on safe access and evacuation routes
and shelters.
• Some guidelines on developing flood emergency
plans include US Army Corps of Engineers (1996)
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 Con…
• Providing search, rescue, and evacuation services
• Scheduling closure of schools and transportation
of students
• Curtailing electric and gas service to prevent fire
and explosions
• Dispersing fire and rescue services for continued
protection
• Establishing emergency medical services and
shelters
• Closing levee openings
• initiating flood-fighting efforts (e.g. sandbagging etc.
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 3.7 Disaster management
• The overall Goal of Disaster Management is to
build a safe, resilient and sustainable society.
• Objectives
To establish a policy/legal and institutional
framework for management of disasters.
To ensure that institutions and activities for
disaster risk management are coordinated, focused
to foster participatory partnerships

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 Con…
 To promote linkages between disaster risk
management and sustainable development for
reduction of vulnerability to hazards and disasters;
 To ensure proactive management of National Conflict
Resolution and Peace Building efforts.
 To mobilise resources, including establishment of
specific funds for disaster risk reduction strategies and
programmes in DM;
 To make available sensitization, awareness creation
and functional literacy to the public for disaster
management.

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 3.8 Evacuation
• It is the ultimate measure of flood defense, aiming to
save lives and reduce losses.
All relevant aspects of an evacuation should be planned
in advance to reduce last minute decisions to a
minimum.
 Criteria and Timing
 Affected area and population
 Direction of Evacuation
 Preparedness for Evacuation
 Warning and evacuation order
 Financial Aspects, Recording and documentation

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 3.9 Information system
• Information systems: coordinate means of
gathering and disseminating vulnerability
assessment and early warning within and between
agencies and organizations and with the public.
• Hydro-meteorological Information on rainfall,
wind speeds, sea state, tidal levels, river levels
and other parameters.
The main types of meteorological information
which are useful in flood warning and
forecasting applications include:
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 Con…
• Site Specific (or Point) Observations – measurements at a
specific location using rain gauges, automatic weather
stations etc.
• Remote Sensing (or Areal) Observations – based on
satellite observations, weather radar etc.
• Computer Model Outputs – from Numerical Weather
Prediction (NWP) models, nowcasting techniques
Instrumentation Networks
Flood warning and forecasting systems usually rely on a
network of meteorological, river and/or coastal
instruments.

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 3.10 Integrated Flood Management
• Aims to maximize the net benefits from flood plains and
at the same time reduce loss of life due to flooding, flood
vulnerability and risks, and preserve ecosystems and their
associated biodiversity within the overall framework of
IWRM.
• Aims to maximize the efficient use of flood plains while
minimizing the loss of life from flooding.
It proposes the following key elements:
 Adopting a best mix of strategies, both structural and
non-structural;

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 Con…
 Managing the water cycle as a whole while considering
all floods, including both extremes.
 Integrating land and water management, as both have
impacts on flood magnitudes and flood risks;
 Ensuring a participatory approach to develop a sense of
ownership and reduce vulnerability.
Detection
. It is an assessment of the availability, quality and reliability
of existing real time data on rainfall, rivers, tides etc. (as
appropriate), and installation of new sites if required

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 CHAPTER-FOUR
4. Institutional framework
• It is the “horizontal” and “vertical” coordination of
people and organizations which avoids the creation of new
structures for disaster preparedness and instead works
within established networks and systems.
• Emphasizing the strengthening of existing communities
and structures

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 Con…
• Institutionally, the following development priorities have
been identified in relation to flood and drought
management.
 Capacity-building at all levels
 Integration of flood and drought management
 Extended collaboration between states
 Extended collaboration between river basin
organisations
 Extended collaboration between agencies
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 Con…
• The organizational structure which is supposed to
clearly assign tasks and responsibilities to the
various municipal departments and other involved
institutions.
4.1 Role of community
The community has a central role in long term and
short term disaster management. The focus of
attention in disaster management must be the local
community.
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 Con…
• The community participates in the whole process
of disaster risk management from situational
analysis to planning to implementation.
• Regional level training
• National level training
• Local Training
• In general the community is the key actor as well
as the primary beneficiary of disaster risk
reduction.

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 Institutional structure

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 Con…
• Institutions charged with disaster mitigation will be
required to systematically manage risks
 Their responsibility for disaster management is
best defined by the necessary functions
 Disaster assessment and monitoring
 Forecasting, early warning systems and
preparedness
 Information and communication
 Stakeholder participation and coordination
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 Con…
 Disaster mitigation plans
4.2 Gaps in institutional capacity in
integrated early warning and response
systems
• There is big gap to integrate early warninig and
respond flood hazard immediately due to the fact
that institutions may not give awareness or
training for the public in advance how to prepare
and mitigate hazards.
4.3 Needs for further research…..
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