Professional Documents
Culture Documents
VOF 2016 Investor Conference
VOF 2016 Investor Conference
Andy Ho
Chief Investment Officer
Managing Director
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style VOF overview
• Launched 2003. Migrated from AIM to the LSE Main Board on 30th March 2016.
A closed-end fund, domiciled in Guernsey.
• Net Assets USD850.4m or USD4.08/share (+25.9% CY2016 YTD), Market Cap USD650m (30 Sep 2016).
VOF is one of the largest and most liquid Vietnam closed-end funds.
• Discount to NAV 23.6% (30 Sep 2016), current estimate 22% (7 Oct 2016)
Ongoing share buyback programme has returned $242m1 to investors over the past 5 years.
• Managed by an experienced, institutionalised team across asset classes including private equity, listed
equities and real estate.
• Fully independent, non-executive board with deep experience in Vietnam and other emerging markets.
As at 30 Sep 2016, VOF has spent USD242 million overall repurchasing 116 million shares which have been cancelled and total voting rights in the Company are now 208,646,258 2
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style
Why VOF
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style VOF strategy
VOF’s strategy takes advantage of market inefficiencies by investing in public and private equity.
50% of VOF is invested in a high conviction portfolio of c.20 quoted investments, unconstrained by
1 index weightings.
4 Legacy real estate portfolio is being reduced, with several large exits recently completed.
Note: The private equity track record is for the private equity portfolio within VOF; returns are only for 40 specific fully realised deals in the private equity portfolio
1 Weighted average gross returns based on total equity invested. Net returns are unavailable because the private equity investments are part of a multi-asset strategy portfolio from VOF. The expenses for VOF are not broken down by asset class
2 Includes SOE privatisation, private company and PIPE deals as of 31 August 2016; does not include convertible debt transactions
• SOE privatisations: Investments made into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) during the process of privatisation
• Private company: Privately negotiated investments made into a privately-held company, usually accompanied by special rights, terms and/or minority protections 4
• PIPE: Privately negotiated investment made into an OTC, public-held or listed company
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
VOFstyle
title style
portfolio and performance
Performance is driven by our conviction to large public equity holdings, private equity investments, and
OTC investments (pre-IPO and privatisations).
Annualised returns
6.7%
Listed 22.0% 15.7% 8.8%
7.8%
NAV
50.9%
USD850.4m OTC 60.2% 12.7% 13.4%
8.5%
Private equity (0.9%) 25.9% 21.3%
12.3%
Listed Equity Private Equity Operating assets VOF NAV/share growth 16.4% 10.9% 6.0%
2016 Foreign
Investee company % of NAV Asset class Sector Description earnings ownership
growth premium
Leading dairy company with dominant
Vinamilk (VNM) 16.1 Listed Food & Beverage 28% 0%
market share
Hoa Phat Group (HPG) 9.7 Listed Materials Largest steel manufacturer in Vietnam 53% 0%
6
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style
VOF listed equity holdings
1 Represent 54% of the Fund with a concentrated portfolio of conviction holdings in <20 stocks.
Focus on domestic consumption growth with little exposure to import/export related companies,
2 hence less risk from macroeconomic variables such as FX and/or trade policies (TPP).
Investments mostly come from prior privatisations and PIPE deals, which allows VOF to take
3 meaningful positions without impacting price given current stock market liquidity.
4 Valuation of 14x 2016 lower than market multiples but earnings growth >20%.
Our active stock selection strategy has generated superior returns of 41% vs 14% and doubled peers
5
CY2016 to August.
1. Source: Bloomberg
7
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style
9
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
Capital style continue to improve
markets
Total market cap of USD69.5 billion1 across 2 exchanges and 690 listed companies.
Foreign interest continues to accelerate on expectation of further privatisations and lifting of FOL.
800 5
Billions
4
600
3
400
2
200
1
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
VNIndex Volume - RHS VNIndex Last Price - LHS MSCI EM Last Price - LHS
1. Market cap of combined bourses, Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), as of 30 Sep 2016. VNIndex represents HOSE only.
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Research & Analysis
10
Click
Clickto
Lifting toedit
of editMaster
Master
foreign title
titlestyle
ownership style
limits has quickened pace
1. Government clarifies companies will set their own limits up to their maximum FOLs, which corresponds to their respective business activities/industries.
11
Click
Clicktotoedit
Attractive editMaster
Mastertitle
investment titlestyle
style in SOE privatisations
opportunity
Vietnam is forecast to experience some of the fastest IPO growth in the world, with a 208%
increase expected between 2015 and 20202 largely driven by SOE privatisations
Market cap / Steady privatisation of SOEs3
Charter Number of privatised SOEs by year
Expected 2016 IPO pipeline Core business
capital
(USDm) 222
60
Song Da Corporation Infrastructure 205
1 VOF’s PE team has generated superior returns of over 20% over 40 fully realised investments.
PE is focusing on private companies particularly in the consumer and infrastructure sectors to gain
2 exposure to Vietnam’s growing middle class and the government’s plan to spend USD2.5b per year
over the next five years.
Currently 12%, the PE portion of the fund will increase to 20% in the next 1-2 years, and we are
3 reviewing a dozen transactions worth >USD100m.
Note: The private equity track record is for the private equity portfolio within VOF; returns are only for 40 specific fully realised deals in the private equity portfolio
13
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
Private style
equity investment summary
In total, VinaCapital’s Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF) has invested nearly USD780 million across 92
private equity-related transactions since inception1
Note: The private equity track record is for the private equity portfolio within VOF
1 Includes private company, SOE privatisation and PIPE deals as of 31 Aug 2016; does not include convertible debt transactions
2 Percent of total number of private equity deals as of 31 Aug 2016
• SOE privatisations: Investments made into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) during the process of privatisation
• Private company: Privately negotiated investment made into a privately-held or non-listed company, usually accompanied by special rights, terms and/or
minority protections
• PIPE: Privately negotiated investment made into an OTC, public-held or listed company
3 Percent of total number of private equity deals by GICS sector as of 31 Aug 2016 14
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Actively Mastertitle
titlestyle
participate instyle
private equity investments
VinaCapital plays an active role in investee companies, providing ongoing support in a number of areas
development
membership
Recruitment
Operational
governance
Leadership
advisory &
Corporate
Strategic
research
Business
support
market
Board
& HR
Transaction summary Investment returns
• Education – Leading international school in Vietnam • Investment: USD4.5m
• Management buy-out • Gross Return: IRR 55%, multiple
• 2004 – 2013 4.2x
• Exited via trade sale to Cognita
• Consumer goods – Leading coffee producer in Vietnam • Investment: USD5.0m
• SOE privatisation, stake purchased in auction • Gross Return: IRR 19%, multiple
• 2010 – 2014 1.8x
• Exited via trade sale to Masan Group
• Constriction materials – Vietnam’s leading ceramic tiles • Investment: USD15.2m
manufacturer • Gross Return: IRR 33%, multiple
• Growth capital and brought in strategic investor 2.4x
• 2009 – 2014
• Exited via trade sale to Siam Cement Group
• Agriculture – leading seeds and agriculture company in • Investment: USD30.6m
Vietnam • Gross Return: IRR 23%, multiple
• Growth capital and corporate governance 2.7x
• 2009 – 2014
• Exited via trade sale to Standard Chartered Private Equity
• Healthcare – leading private hospital operator • Investment: USD10.3m
• Management buy-out • Gross Return: IRR 37%, multiple
• 2009 – 2013 2.3x
• Exited via trade sale to Fortis
• Consumer goods – Vietrnam’s leading soymilk producer • Investment: USD14.7m
• 2015 – present • Unrealised return: 50%, multiple
• 50% upside based on latest mark to market 1.5x
15
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
CaseMaster title
study of style
title style
private company (current investment):
An Cuong Woodworking
A leading wood-working and decorative materials company based in Ho Chi Minh City, which serves the domestic market and
exports to Japan, Southeast Asia, North America and Europe
6,891.6
6,145.3
5,591.8
• June 2016, VOF alongside DEG • Consistent growth rate of 30 – • Introduction of independent
invested USD30 million into An 35% over the past several director who has expertise in
Cuong Joint Stock Company years, annual turnover of over sales and marketing to help
USD70 million in 2015 with new strategic initiative 2012 2013 2014 2015
• The company currently offers
the largest range of decorative • The company has dominant • Appointment of CFO to
surfaces in ASEAN with more market share in branded MFC oversee the implementation of
than 1,000 variations of colours panels (50%) and laminate ERP and financial reporting Furniture and Furnishing Spending in Vietnam (USDbn)2
and grains that can be matched panels (70%)
and customized with various • Active participation at board
core materials • Wood-based materials are and management level to 4.6
4.2
slowly taken over solid wood advise the founder/CEO on
3.8
• The products are primarily due to cost competitiveness Company’s strategic direction
3.3
used for producing modern and changing consumer habits and financial management 3.0
furniture with extensive 2.7
2.5
applications for furniture • Compelling growth prospects • Appoint E&S expert to conduct 2.3 2.2 2.3
2.0
components and made to on the back of solid recovery in full review and implement E&S
assembly furniture Vietnam’s real estate market action plan
United States
16%
2% Japan
2% South Korea
Return drivers & investment
Transaction summary Value creation 3% 49% China
rationale 3%
Germany
4%
• Vinatex held an IPO through a • Vinatex has a strong network • Obtained one board seat out of United Kingdom
9%
public auction in September and infrastructure for the a seven-member board Netherlands
2014, successfully selling 47% import, export and distribution 12% Canada
of the company of textiles in Vietnam and • Assisted management in a
strategic investment program Others
internationally
• VOF acquired a 3% stake in to enhance vertically
Vinatex and brought in a • Textile and garment exports integrated production process
strategic partner, Itochu, who accounted for USD15.6 billion Vietnam exports by percent of total export value (2016)1
also acquired a 3% stake year-to-date August 2016, or • Fostered relationship with
nearly 14% of total export Itochu to help Vinatex boost 5.6% Machinery and equipment
value over the same time trade ties and technical know- 7.5%
1. Source: Vietnam Customs Office, data represents year-to-date figures as of August 2016 17
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
studytitle
Master
Case style
oftitle
SOE style
privatisation (exited investment):
DHG Pharmaceutical JSC
DHG Pharmaceutical is the No.1 domestic generic drugs producer in Vietnam with 5% market share, extensive
distribution network and strong management team
$4.0
3.4
$3.5 3.1
$3.0 2.8
2.6
2.4
$2.5
Return drivers & investment 1.9
Transaction summary Value creation $2.0 1.7
rationale 1.4 1.3 1.4
1.6
$1.5 1.1 1.2
0.8 0.9
• Since the initial investment • Top production capacity in • Obtained one board seat $1.0 0.7
stake in DHG • Widest distribution network Expenditure on local drugs Total expenditure
among domestic • Worked with management
• VOF exited the investment pharmaceutical companies to find a strategic investor
in June 2016 and realized a (Taisho, the leading DHG Revenue and Net Earnings (USDmn)
75% IRR • A fundamentally good pharmaceutical company in
company with attractive net Japan)
margin of over 14%
(amongst the highest in the $200 178
164
industry) and solid balance 154
$160 133
sheet (rich cash and no 113
$120
debt) 79
93
$80 68
• Proven track record of 19%
22 26 24 26
net profit CAGR over 2008- $40
6
16 17 18
2015 $0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
• Excellent management team
Revenue Net Earnings
29,048
14,758
1,027
0 0
2013 2014 2015
31.3
28.2
25.3
• Thai Hoa sought capital to pay • Thai Hoa currently has 200 • Appointed an independent
down debt and expand beds, with the ability to scale board member to help the Mekong Delta Vietnam HCMC
operations up to 300 beds in the same company improve its
location management system Doctors per 10,000 population Beds per 10,000 population
• VOF invested USD9m for a
controlling stake in Thai Hoa • The hospital employs 30 • Helped the company refinance
International Hospital, a doctors, and is capable of its debt and created a source
leading healthcare provider treating over 300,000 patient of funding for launching new Public and private hospitals breakdown2
located in the Mekong Delta visits per year clinics
region
• The number of private • Identified and employed a CFO
hospitals is expected to grow to enhance the company’s
(currently accounting for 14.5% financial systems 1,069 1,089
1,030 1,040 1,042
of all hospitals) as 1,002
overcrowding and poor service • Identified and employed a
continue to plague the public Head of Business Development
85 121 133 150 167 185
hospital system • Deployed a management 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
incentive plan
Private hospitals Public hospitals
Together with VNL, which is in the process of a realisation strategy, we sold a number of projects this
1 year, including Century 21, Pham Hung Road, and Danang Golf, which generated proceeds of USD50m
and in excess of NAV.
DRE has reduced from approximately 15% of NAV in prior year to less than 7% currently, and cash will
2 be recycled to PE and Listed.
13.9%
6.9%
8.5%
Reduced
11.7% to
DRE
Operating Assets
CapM and others
84.6%
74.4%
21
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style
-1.3% -0.6%
-2.1%
-2.9%
-4.7% -4.6%
3-year annualised returns 5-year annualised returns
1. Source: Numis Securities Country Funds Parity report as of 31 Aug 2016. Calendar year performance per Numis. Fiscal year to date performance based on NAV per share in USD terms.
2. Capital Market peers include VNH, VEIL, VEH and the VN Index.
23
Click totoedit
ClickVOF editMaster
Master
discount title
titlestyle
management style
and share buyback programme
Since implementing the buyback programme VOF has reduced its discount, and the main board listing has increased both
trading and liquidity.
5.00 VOF share price, NAV and shares bought back – 30 Sep 2016 (USD, millions)
4.50
NAV/share
4.00 USD4.08
3.50
Discount
3.00
23.6%
2.50 Share price
2.00 USD3.11
1.50
1.00
0.50
-
Apr-12
Dec-06
Aug-09
Dec-03
Apr-04
Dec-04
Dec-12
Dec-15
Aug-04
Apr-05
Dec-05
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Aug-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Aug-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Aug-12
Apr-13
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-14
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Apr-16
Aug-16
10
8
Millions of
shares
5
Share buyback commenced
Oct 2011
3
Economy VOF
• An economy that is outperforming its peers • A unique multi-asset strategy that take advantage of
the inefficiencies in Vietnam’s investment
environment
• Free trade agreements that open up over 75% of the
world’s GDP to trade with Vietnam
• Proven track record in public and private markets
25
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style
Why Vietnam
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style Why Vietnam
Vietnam’s growth is driven by rising domestic consumption and rapid infrastructure development.
• Demographics
94 million people with an average age under 30
• International trade
Several free-trade agreements will bolster economic growth
27
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
Successful style
revitalisation of the economy
Vietnam’s 2016 GDP growth is projected to continue at 6.3%, making it among the highest performers in
the world; meanwhile inflation remains manageable
GDP is growing at impressive pace Vietnam’s GDP is outpacing most Asian frontier and emerging markets1
GDP growth and inflation GDP forecast, 2016
India 7.5%
19.9%
18.1% Bangladesh 6.6%
China 6.5%
Vietnam 6.3%
12.6% Philippines 6.0%
11.8%
Sri Lanka 5.0%
Taiwan 1.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
1IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2016, emerging and frontier market classifications based on MSCI classifications
Source: IMF, ADB, General Statistics Office, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 28
Click
Clicktoto
Aedit
editMaster
Master
young, title
titlestyle
educated style
and inexpensive workforce
The affluent middle-class will double to 21m Vietnam’s young, productive population has been
people by 2030. Labour costs are among the a catalyst in attracting foreign direct investments
lowest in the region. and driving growth.
Average monthly wage by country Net foreign inflows (USDbn)
In USD, 2014
12
$453 Vietnam labour costs half
that of China resulting in
$403 10 Strong FDI inflows
manufacturing jobs
$369 moving to Vietnam supported by remittances
from overseas diaspora
and a positive trade
8
balance accounts for a
healthy FX reserve
$253 $249
6
$176
4
0
Malaysia China Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vietnam 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: World Bank, General Statistics Office, Ministry of Agricultural & Rural Development, VinaCapital Research & Analysis Source: General Statistics Office, Ministry of Planning & Investment, VinaCapital Research & Analysis
29
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style
High-value export economy
80 Korea
21%
60 5% Others
40 9%
11%
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Diverse export base with an increasing shift to high-tech products Manageable trade deficit
Exports by product category (USD billion), 2015 Trade balance (USD billion)
Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam Customs, Ministry of Planning & Investment, VinaCapital Research & Analysis 30
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
Overall, style
improving macroeconomics
FX reserves strengthening off positive trade flows Inflation remains stable thanks to low commodity prices
USD billion YoY CPI MoM CPI
40 5 8 3
4 6
30 2
3 4
20 1
2 2
10 0
1 -
2013 2014 2015 2016
- 0 (2) (1)
2016F
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
YoY CPI MoM CPI
Gross Reserves (LHS) Months of Imports (RHS)
VND remains one of the most stable currencies against the USD Non-performing loans are declining, but structural issues remain
compared to regional peers Percentage of total outstanding loans
160% 6.0%
150% 5.0%
140%
4.0%
130%
120% 3.0%
110% 2.0%
100%
1.0%
90%
80% 0.0%
2015E
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: General Statistics Office, State Bank of Vietnam, Vietnam Customs, Bloomberg, VinaCapital Research & Analysis
31
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
VOF style
portfolio management team
Supported by a 10 member research team, including CFA charter holders or MBA qualified
32
Click
Clicktotoedit
editMaster
Mastertitle
titlestyle
style Contact details
VinaCapital
17th Floor, Sun Wah Tower
115 Nguyen Hue Street
District 1
Ho Chi Minh City
Vietnam
+84 8 3821 9930
www.vinacapital.com
33