Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippines: Strategic
Significance of a Logistic Hub on
Pagasa (Thitu) Island
Carlyle A. Thayer
June 5, 2021
We request your assessment of the Philippines’ recently announced plan to build a
logistics hub on Thitu island.
Q1. What do you think of this announcement? What is the possibility that this hub will
play a significant role in the evoluition of the South China Sea conflict? In what way
will this hub, once built, help the Philippines?
ANSWER: In 1999, in response to China’s occupation of Mischief Reef, the Philippines
deliberately beached the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57) on Ayungin Shoal (Second Thomas
Shoal) in order prevent China from interdicting the transit of Filipino ships operating
in the South China Sea. In 2021, the Philippines once again responded to a potential
threat from China to interfere with Philippine flagged ships and vessels transiting the
West Philippine Sea be announcing they will build a logistic hub on Pagasa (Thitu)
island.
The announcement that the Philippines will construct a logistic hub on Pagasa island
is an assertion of sovereignty and national resolve to pushback against China’s use of
its Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and fishing fleet to intimidate the Philippines from
operating state-flagged vessels in the West Philippine Sea.
The new logistic hub, once completed, will shorten the supply lines of forward
deployed Philippine naval and maritime law enforcement vessels now being serviced
from Palawan. The Philippines will now be able to respond more quickly to incidents
and deploy for longer periods of time.

Q2. In a recent paper you wrote that, ‘’China will respond with a heavy hand if the
Philippines tried to use naval ships to bolster its Coast Guard.’’ could you elaborate on
that? What would be some examples of being heavy handed?

ANSWER: In 2012, when the Philippines deployed the BRP Gregorio del Pilar to
Scarborough Shoal to arrest Chinese boats illegally fishing in Philippine waters, China
responded by deploying maritime surveillance ships to block the BRP Gregorio del
Pilar. China also made a propaganda meal out of the Philippines’s deployment of its
“largest naval ship” at that time.

China has repeatedly used “grey zone” tactics to achieve its end, that is, the
deployment of ostensibly civilian China Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and fishing
 2

boats to assert Chinese sovereignty. China would view the deployment of any
Philippine Navy ships as an escalation justifying the invocation of the Law on China
Coast Guard and its authorisation to use armed force in specified circumstances.

In addition, China likely would initiate a tit for tat response by dispatching a People’s
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warship to confront the Philippines. Chinese warships
could adopt a range of tactics including threatening to ram, directing fire control radar,
and aiming military grade lasers against Philippine vessels. In February 2020, for
example, a PLAN Corvette aimed its fire control radar at the BRP Conrado Yap.

Q3. How will the Covid-19 pandemnic in different parts of the world, particularly in
Asia, likely to affect Manila’s hub building plan in particular and the South China Sea
conflict, in general?

ANSWER: Manila’s plan to construct a logistic hub on Pagasa is not directly related to
the COVID-19 pandemic globally or regionally. Obviously, the COVID-19 pandemic is a
threat to public health and could impact on naval operations as well as civilian
construction activities if not properly managed.

Q4. How do you think the Vietnamese government will react – publicly and privately
– to Manila’s announcement that it will build a logistics hub on Thitu?

ANSWER: On 28 May, a spokesperson for Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs

responded to a question about Philippines plans to upgrade infrastructure on Pagasa
by asserting, “Viet Nam has constantly reiterated that it has sufficient legal ground
and historical evidence to assert its sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in line with
international law. All violations of Viet Nam’s sovereignty and related rights over the
Spratly Islands are illegal and null and void.”

Other than this standard announcement, Vietnam is unlikely to take any further action
publicly or privately – to aggravate its relations with the Philippines.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippines: Strategic Significance of a Logistic

Hub on Pagasa (Thitu) Island,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 5, 2021. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.