HOW MARRIAGE PATTERNS MAY HAVE HELPED FUEL EUROPE’S RISE TO WEALTH

From the Late Middle Ages to the nineteenth century, Europe transitioned from being one of
the most backward regions in the world and became the world’s economic powerhouse.
How did this happen? One reason, as shown by Ralph Raico, is Europe’s unusual political
decentralization.
But another likely factor is Western Europe’s unusual pattern of family formation. In 1965
John Hajnal argued that since the sixteenth century Western Europe has been
characterized by late female marriage, high female celibacy, and the prevalence of the
nuclear family. Economists refer to this trend as the Western European marriage pattern—
or simply European marriage pattern (EMP). Several scholars contend that the EMP
initiated economic development by increasing the participation of women in the labor force,
improving human capital, and nurturing beneficial cultural norms. As such, we will consider
the impact of the EMP on economic growth.
Some economists posit that the Black Death aided the EMP by trigging a labor market for
women. By reducing the supply of labor, it created demand for female workers. According to
one estimate, by 1400, country women were dutifully performing tasks originally assigned to
men, such as carrying corn, driving plough oxen, and haymaking. Since their earnings were
independent of the family, they could play a more prominent role as consumers, thus
stimulating demand. Another interesting feature of the labor market is that it allowed
employees to work outside of their communities, therefore weakening kinship structures and
fostering social trust. For example, women were often employed as servants in the
households of foreigners.
Reducing reliance on kinship groups made it possible to create larger and more innovative
organizations that were divested from the authority of the household. Unlike the tribalistic
sentiments engendered by kinship groups, the EMP cultivated the rise of the nuclear family
and its emphasis on generalized trust that transcended the parochialism of the extended
family. Furthermore, later marriage also provided women with more opportunities to invest
in human capital and make a productive contribution to various sectors. This is important
because after marrying, women usually exit the labor force or migrate to flexible jobs; hence
early marriage would have deprived the economy of their ingenuity.
Over time the EMP resulted in people prioritizing the education of their children, in contrast
to supporting the extended family. Since people would migrate to seek employment, this
meant that they often formed relationships with strangers and would then create a family
separate from the extended household. Freed from the expenses of the extended family,
parents could afford to invest in formal schooling for children. Apart from investing in
children, parents encouraged them to be resourceful and save for the future. Kinship groups
no longer influenced success and a premium was placed on enhancing human capital.
Meanwhile, lower fertility resulted in smaller families, making more resources available to
offspring, thereby resulting in better-educated children.
Yet critics argue that the EMP was representative of working-class people and does not
explain economic growth. However, this objection fails to contextualize the EMP. In a
2016 paper responding to critics, economic historians exclaim that “[a]ge of marriage is not
a good scale for the degree to which countries were characterized by the EMP. Rather, the
economic effects of the EMP should be seen in the broader context of how marriage
responds to changing economic circumstance.” To appreciate the implications of the EMP,
one must examine it in relation to economic trends and the broader culture. Postponement
of marriage is linked to economic hardship, so by this account, there is a correlation
between the EMP and lower growth rates.
Hence understanding the consequences of the EMP requires us to dig a bit deeper. If EMP
were typical of Chinese culture, there is no guarantee that it would induce economic growth.
For the EMP to promote growth it must be operating under the right circumstances. China is
collectivistic and, unlike in Europe, cooperation there was sustained by clans. The downside
of clans is that they are governed by rigid hierarchies with the power to oppose innovation.
Similarly, such societies do not operate within the framework of generalized morality.
Therefore, they are unlikely to reap the benefits of large-scale collaborations. The logical
result of this is lower growth. Other than being less innovative, such societies are also likely
to tolerate corruption and incompetence when the perpetrator is a member of the group.
Essentially, the nature of a society determines its ability to maximize the EMP. Without a
unique suite of factors, most countries will not become rich as a result of the EMP. For
example, regions in Europe lacking in social capital cannot exploit the possible gains of the
EMP.
Neither would societies with a different set of institutions boost human capital by adopting
the EMP. For instance, in a clan-based society, the head of the clan can exert authority over
the group, and consequently could contend that women should not be educated or propose
training people in areas that are no longer relevant. However, though critics of the EMP
misunderstand the theory, we should still be skeptical of overconfident assertions like those
made by James Foreman Peck and Peng Zhou in a 2018 paper: “Without the contribution of
late marriage to human capital accumulation broadly interpreted, real wages in England
would not have increased strongly in the early nineteenth century and would have been
much lower than actually achieved for several centuries.”
The statement is not incorrect, but the authors should have informed readers that British
culture supplemented the EMP. Along these lines, researchers are quite perceptive when
they make this observation: “However, having empirically demonstrated the positive effects
of the EMP on economic development, we contest them as a sufficient condition for
economic takeoff…. A well-functioning EMP is not a highway for economic take-off.”
Although an important topic for investigation into Europe’s unique success in economic
development, the Western European marriage pattern is just one of many contenders
seeking to explain the rise of the West. Like other theories, the EMP has explanatory value,
but we should be wary of those assigning complicated developments to a sole cause.