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Cohort Effects in Cognitive Development of Children As Revealed by Cross-Sectional Sequences
Cohort Effects in Cognitive Development of Children As Revealed by Cross-Sectional Sequences
In an attempt to solve the ongoing con- sumptions, these sequential strategies are
troversy about the validity of various age expected to yield the unconfounded effects
curves, alternative strategies to the conven- of age, cohort, and time of measurement
tional cross-sectional and longitudinal de- and thus disentangle some of the sources
signs have been proposed (Baltes, 1968; of error confounding the age differences ob-
Schaie, 1965). Using Bell's (1953) notion tained by application of single conven-
of an "accelerated longitudinal approach" tional cross-sectional or longitudinal meth-
as a starting point, Schaie (1965) formu- ods. Schaie (1965) appears to explain the
lated a well-explicated general model for effects of the three components as the con-
the study of developmental problems which sequences of maturation (age), environ-
is based on three components: age, cohort ment (time of measurement), and of
(birthdate), and time of measurement. In heredity (cohort), an interpretation long
order to analyze his trifactorial devel- sought in developmental psychology.
opmental model, Schaie derived three While accepting the basic setup of
types of sequential strategies: the cross- the general developmental model, Baltes
sequential, the cohort-sequential, and the (1967, 1968) criticized Schaie's analysis
time-sequential method. Under certain as- and interpretation of the developmental
1
model by pointing out some shortcomings
This study was conducted in conjunction with in the formal definitions and the measurabil-
research supported by a grant from the Wis- ity of the components age, cohort, and time
senschaftliche Gesellschaft der Universitaet des
Saarlandes, Germany. The authors are grateful to of measurement. He proposed to give up
Heide Diesel, Elisabeth Haas, and Gisela Labouvie the explanatory status of the components
for their assistance in data analysis and to J. R. (maturation, heredity, environment) and to
Nesselroade and O. H. Cross for their critical transform Schaie's trifactorial model into a
readings of the manuscript. bifactorial developmental model using the
2
Requests for reprints should be sent to Paul B.
Baltes, Department of Psychology, West Virginia descriptive components of age and cohort
University, Morgantown, West Virginia, 26506. only. As was true for Schaie's sequential
169
170 PAUL B. BALTES AND GUENTHER REINERT
strategies, the bifactorial developmental sign with repeated observations over age (longitu-
model can be conceptualized as a design dinal sequences). Such reasoning follows from the
fact that the increase in sensitivity of a repeated-
with independent as well as repeated meas- measurement design concerns only those factors
urements over the age factor. It was pro- where repeated observations are possible, that is,
posed that the data-collection strategies with regard to the bifactorial model, only the age
needed to apply the bifactorial develop- factor. In addition, the interpretation of cross-sec-
mental model as a design with independent tional sequences is not impaired by the existence
of either testing, selective-sampling, or selective
measurements be called cross-sectional se- dropout effects as is the interpretation of longitu-
quences; and in the case of repeated meas- dinal sequences. The analysis of cohort effects be-
urements, longitudinal sequences. If certain ing the primary purpose of the present study, it
assumptions are met, the use of independent therefore seemed logical to choose cross-sectional,
as well as repeated measurements, that is, rather than longitudinal, sequences as data-collec-
tion strategies.
the application of cross-sectional as well as As part of a larger study on the differentiation
longitudinal sequences, permits the separa- hypotheses of intelligence (Reinert, 1969; Reinert,
tion of the effects of age and cohort in de- Baltes, & Schmidt, 1965), it was possible to col-
velopmental phenomena. lect data suited for the bifactorial developmental
model. Four independent cross-sectional studies
As holds true for all models, their useful- separated by 4-month intervals (November 1964,
ness is dependent upon their heuristic value, March 1965, July 1965, November 1965) were
that is, upon the empirical relevance of age conducted. The population of subjects consisted
and cohort effects in the case of the bifac- of all 8- to 10-year-old pupils (Grades 2-4) attend-
torial developmental model. While the ex- ing 64 elementary schools in the city of Saar-
bruecken (Germany) and its surrounding com-
istence of age effects on psychological be- munities. Each of the 64 elementary schools was
havior is widely acknowledged, the presence randomly assigned to one of the four occasions of
of cohort effects, that is, differences between measurement, so that the subjects in each cross-
people born at different points of time, is section came from 16 elementary schools. The
city of Saarbruecken has a population of about
not generally recognized. Thus far, there are 150,000 and is the capital of the Saarland, one of
few studies which have attempted to analyze the states of the Federal Republic of Germany. In
cohort effects directly (e.g., Riegel, 1965; general, the population can be described as being
Riegel, Riegel, & Meyer, 1967; Schaie, & fairly representative (IQ, socioeconomic status) of
Strother, 1968, 1969), most of the evidence German children from urban and suburban areas.
A more detailed description of the population is
being of an indirect nature (Damon, 1965; given elsewhere (Reinert, 1969).
Kuhlen, 1963). In general, one is inclined From the pool of subjects (N = 9686), two
to concede that there might be differences different designs (Study I, Study II) each consist-
between cohorts born several decades apart, ing of two age and three cohort levels were set
up to test the bifactorial model (Table 1).
for example, differences between genera- The subpopulations defined by their levels of
tions; however, one is hesitant to predict age and cohort were each measured only at one
differences between subpopulations of or- time of measurement, that is, either in November
ganisms born only a few years, or even 1964, March 1965, July 1965, or November 1965.
months, apart. The present study tests such Then, from each of the various subpopulations a
subsample of 70 subjects (35 male, 35 female)
lower bounds of the cohort dimension with was drawn at random, resulting in a total sample
regard to cognitive development in children. of 420 subjects for each of the two studies. Thus,
a 2 (Age) X 3 (Cohort) x 2 (Sex) analysis of
variance setup was obtained for both Study I and
Method Study II.
Research Design and Subjects Measurement Variables and Analysis
One has to observe at least two cohorts at the As measures of cognitive functioning, a selected
same two age levels to realize the minimum se- battery of subtests from the Leistungspruefsystem
quential design derived from the bifactorial de- (LPS) and the Begabungstestsystem (BTS) were
velopmental model. This can be accomplished, used. Both the LPS (Horn, 1962) and the BTS
however, either by cross-sectional or longitudinal (Horn, 1956) are group tests of intelligence con-
sequences. It has been argued (Baltes, 1968) that structed to cover the domain of intelligence as
a design with independent observations over both conceptualized by Thurstone's primary mental
age and cohort (cross-sectional sequences) is as abilities for the German language area. Thus far,
sensitive to the analysis of cohort effects as a de- however, factor-analytic studies have not been
COHORT EFFECTS IN COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT 171
TABLE 1
BlFACTORIAL DEVELOPMENTAL MODEL: Two RESEARCH DESIGNS USING
EACH THREE LEVELS or COHORT AND Two LEVELS OF AGE
Age"
Cohort"
8:4 8:8 9:4 9:8
Study I
Study II
very successful in reproducing the assumed dimen- of variance was performed for each of the four in-
sions (Reinert et al., 1965) in a satisfactory and telligence measures separately for Study I and
consistent manner, as they did not suggest any Study II, yielding a total of eight analyses of
other clear-cut interpretation. Therefore, in the variance.
present study the authors have kept to the content
validity of the subtests, instead of referring to their Results
assumed factorial validity. For the present analysis
•only the subtests of the BTS included in the bat- The results are summarized in Table 3
tery are used. Table 2 gives an overview on some and Table 4. In describing the two tables,
of their test characteristics including their assumed it should be noted that the treatment factors
factorial validity. age and cohort have to be conceptualized
After the distribution of the raw scores and the
homogeneity of variances were found to be satis- as fixed factors; that is, in a strict sense it is
factory for the four variables, a 2 x 3 x 2 analysis feasible only to state differences between
TABLE 2
FOUR MEASURES OF INTELLIGENCE FROM THE BEGABUNGSTESTSYSTEM (BTS)
Factor identification
Subtest Number of item
Thurstone system Guilford system
a
Letter Series.
b
c
Word Completion.
d
Basic Arithmetic.
Letter Counting.
172 PAUL B. BALTES AND GUENTHER REINERT
TABLE 4
SUMMARY OP ANALYSES OF VARIANCE FOR STUDY I AND STUDY II
Subtest"
Source df RE BR GR BZ
c x s 2,408
A X C X S 2,408
a
Note.—For levels of ay;e and levels of cohort in both studies see Table 1.
RE = Regelerkennen (Letter Series); RR = Buchstabenraten (Word Completion); GR = Grundrechnen (Basic Arithmetic);
BZ = Buchstabenzaehlen (Letter Counting).
* V < .02.
** p < .01.
19
18
17
„«
fi
$14
u
213
12 STUDY I
II
range, subjects at the four times of measure- for season-of-birth differences without be-
ment (November 1964, March 1965, July ing able to put it to a rigorous test, since in
1965, November 1965) showed differential the present study different length of school-
amounts of schooling. For example, the 8:4 ing and season of birth (cohort) are co-
year-olds tested in November 1964 had varying simultaneously. A study to sepa-
about 7 months of schooling beyond second- rate schooling from season-of-birth effects
grade entrance, 8:4 year-olds tested in would have to be conducted, for example,
March 1965 had 11 months, and 8:4 year- cross-culturally, so that one could obtain an
olds tested in July 1965 even had 15 months independent variation of age, length of
of schooling beyond second-grade entrance. schooling, and season of birth.
Since grades include generally a 1-year The fact that the present data do not
range, the greatest difference in length of show a continuous additive effect of cohort
schooling one would be able to find in chil- levels, that is, not a linear increase in effect
dren of about the same age is, of course, 1 as cohort levels are separated by greater
full year. The differences in schooling for the time intervals, complicates the situation.
cohort levels in the present study amount to One could argue, for instance, that such an
4 and 8 months. outcome suggests the existence of a type of
Considering the differential amounts of periodicity in cohort effects as a function
schooling the various cohorts had (Table of two different kinds of sources. One refers
5), the obtained significant differences be- to the within-year levels of cohort, and the
tween cohorts as well as the interactions be- second refers to between-year levels of co-
tween age and cohort become more mean- hort. In other words, our biological and
ingful. The Subtest GR (arithmetic) is a cultural system may be of such a kind that
subtest which is heavily loaded with ma- individuals born at different times in the
terial that is covered in the grade levels year are provided with distinctive develop-
used; therefore, it makes sense that it is mental conditions which may be different
mainly GR which is affected by cohort dif- from those developmental conditions that
ferences. With regard to the interaction distinguish cohorts born several years apart,
term Age x Cohort, it seems reasonable to that is, the usual generational differences.
assume that the cohort effect is most dis- Such a distinction between within-year co-
tinct with that cohort level which shows the hort differences and between-year cohort
lowest amount of schooling, that is, either differences, however, needs further investi-
7 months in second grade (Study I) or 7 gation.
months in third grade (Study II). The pres-
ent authors, however, cannot offer any ob- Discussion
vious interpretation of the significant inter- In general, the results are not as clear-
action between age and cohort obtained in cut and parsimonious as one might desire,
Study I concerning the Variable BZ. since they give a rather complicated pic-
In general, then, it seems plausible to in- ture of the effects of age and cohort and
terpret the cohort effects found mainly as their interaction in the cognitive develop-
a differential schooling effect. This interpre- ment of children. The outcome, however,
tation is, of course, a rival interpretation for demonstrates the utility of the bifactorial
season-of-birth effects, in general, also, a developmental model and illustrates some
notion which was first touched by Lodge of the pitfalls one has to deal with when
(1938) and subsequently by Williams using single cross-sectional or longitudinal
(1964). As a matter of fact, the notion of studies. For neither of the two subtests af-
differential schooling implies that the con- fected by age and cohort, that is, GR and
flicting evidence on season-of-birth effects BZ, would the application of single cross-
may be only a result of different times of sectional or longitudinal studies have re-
measurements and different terms of sulted in valid and generalizable age effects.
school entries in various countries and As has been shown elsewhere (Baltes,
states. However, the present study can only 1968), single cross sections would have
suggest such an alternative interpretation yielded age effects which are a confounded
176 PAUL B. BALTES AND GUENTHER REINERT
effect of age and cohort differences, and vestigation to include additional levels of
any single cohort-specific longitudinal study age and cohort and other measurement var-
would not have been able to indicate the re- iables in order to check further into the
strictions one has to consider when general- empirical relevance of the cohort factor in
izing the cohort-specific age effects to the study of age-related phenomena.
other levels of cohort. Furthermore, it is
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COHORT EFFECTS IN COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT 177
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time and cohort differences on the interpretation (Received May 2, 1968)
Determinants of Boys' Perceptions of Verbal Reinforcers: Daniel Solomon* and Judy Yaeger: Re-
search Program in Child Development, 232 East Ohio Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611.
Simplicial Structures of Middle-Class and Lower-Class Pupils' Attitudes toward Teachers: Albert H.
Yee* and Philip J. Runkel: School of Education, University of Wisconsin, 606 State Street,
Madison, Wisconsin 53706.
Role of Measurement Operations in the Acquisition of Conservation: David J. Bearison*: Department
of Psychology, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts 01610.
Sibling-Age-Spacing Effects upon Cognition: B. G. Rosenberg* and B. Sutton-Smith: Department of
Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720.
Solution Process in Children's Matching-to-Sample: Gerald R. Levin* and Daphne J. McDonnell: De-
partment of Psychology and Education, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania 19081.
Fruit-Tree Study as a Measure of Associative Thinking and Imagery in Children of Different Ages:
Leonore L. Adler*: American Museum of Natural History, Central Park West at 79th Street,
New York, New York 10024.
Modification of the Life Concept in Children: William R. Looft and Don C. Charles*: Department
of Psychology, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa 50010.
Growth Hormone and Environmental Complexity Effects on Behavior in the Rat: Oakley S. Ray*
and Sandra Hochauser: Psychology Research Laboratories, Veterans Administration Hospital, Leech
Farm Road, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15206.
* Asterisk indicates author for whom address is supplied.