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Session 3 - Supply Planning in Supply Chain
Session 3 - Supply Planning in Supply Chain
Once you have forecasted the future demand for a product or service, you need to
come up with a supply plan to fulfil that demand. The objective of a supply plan
is to balance supply and demand in a manner that meets the service-level
commitments and maximises the overall profit for the company. In this session,
you will learn about the concepts of supply planning and aggregate planning.
1. Supply Planning
3. Demand Uncertainty
Session Objectives:
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In this video, you understood the position of supply planning in the big picture of
sales and operations planning process. You also understood that supply planning
is the entire planning process and it includes procurement, manufacturing
and distribution operations, in accordance with demand forecasts, considering
capacity constraints and material availability.
Supply planning broadly consists of the following three major components:
1. Procurement
2. Manufacturing
3. Distribution
In the first session of this module, you saw how an organisation achieves strategic
fit through a supply chain strategy. Taking this concept forward, while achieving
the strategic fit, the organisation faces some obstacles.
Let’s hear about these obstacles from our expert Shyam
In this video, you recognised the following obstacles that an organisation faces in
achieving the strategic fit:
Taking all these obstacles into consideration, an organisation needs to accelerate its
decision-making process. You will learn about this decision-making process in the
next segment.
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Correct! The path of an organisation in achieving the desired strategic fit becomes
difficult as product variety increases, thus with only a single variation to be sold per
year, it will be easiest for company C to achieve strategic fit.
Distribution affects both the supply chain cost and customer experience. Thus, it is
imperative to design a distribution network that performs flawlessly.
You will learn more about the distribution networks within an organisation in a
separate module of this course.
However, before doing that, let’s revisit what you have learnt so far by attempting
the following assessment
The company should sell its product only during the tropical season and
stop the production in non-tropical seasons. The unsold inventory from the
production in the tropical season could be sold in the subsequent non-
tropical seasons.
The company should sell its product online through e-commerce
retailers and let them handle the excess inventory.
The company should keep its production running throughout the year
at an optimal production rate with the least possible labour.
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Different states have different temperature and weather profiles throughout the year.
There are states that have a sweaty atmosphere even in winters. Maintaining
production throughout the year would ensure that the company is not losing on
sales from such states
In this video, you learnt about the following four major causes of demand
variability:
1. Volatility
2. Uncertainty
3. Complexity
4. Ambiguity
When the market signals a sharp increase in demand, especially in times of global
crisis, supply chain leaders’ profitability depends on being informed and agile
enough to forecast and fulfil inventory in the right places, at the right speed and at
the right time.
Now that you have understood what causes demand variability and why it needs to
be addressed, the next question is
In this video, you learnt about five major actions that can be taken to plan for
demand variability. They are as follows:
Festive seasons bring with themselves a huge spike in demand for e-commerce
players such as Amazon and Flipkart, thereby creating demand variability between
festive and non-festive seasons. Let’s now look at an example of how an e-
commerce company manages its capacity during the festive season sale
Now that you have understood the details of supply and demand planning, it is
time to get into the production side of things through the concept of aggregate
planning.
However, before doing that, let’s revisit what you have learnt so far by attempting
the following assessments
Build regular warehouses to meet the BAU demand and rent extra space
during the peak season
Build large warehouses to meet the peak demand and rent out extra
space during the off-peak season
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Correct! Firstly, Flipkart has to find the demand for extra temporary space from other
companies during its BAU days. Once it has the estimated the demand number, it
can plan accordingly. If the amount of temporary space required by Flipkart during
Big Billion day sale is much higher than the estimated demand from other companies
in BAU days, then it is not feasible to build large warehouses to meet the seasonal
demand. In such a case, Flipkart can build only that much storage space which can
easily be rented out during the off-peak season. The remaining temporary space
requirement for Flipkart should be fulfilled through renting. However, if the amount
of seasonal space required by Flipkart in Big Billion day sales is similar to the
estimated demand from other companies during BAU days, then it can build its own
storage space and rent it out during the off-peak season.
Decision Making under Demand Variability
Customer demand for any company or any product can vary from one time period to
another. However, in certain situations, the variability in demand is predictable,
especially when the variability occurs because of the internal factors in the company.
In such cases, a company can plan for the variability in advance and deploy its supply
capabilities accordingly (some of the supply levers used by companies to meet the
predictable variability in demand are a flexible workforce, a flexible production
facility, distribution of the production of complementary product portfolio uniformly
across the year, etc.).
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Correct answer! The fact that there will be an increase in demand for ACs and
refrigerators during summers is predictable, and companies can start planning their
supply in advance
Aggregate Planning
Once demand is forecasted and supply is planned, the next step in line is to plan for
the production to cater to the supply. The planning done for this production process
falls under the purview of aggregate planning.
Let’s hear about this from our expert Shyam
In the video, you learnt that an organisation finalises its business plans on the basis
of the demand forecast. This business plan is broken down to individual material
requirements for a defined finite period. The process of working out these
requirements for a medium-range (between 2–3 months and 12–15 months) is
called aggregate planning.
You also learnt about the advantages of conducting aggregate planning for an
organisation. Some of these advantages are as follows:
Organisations have to plan for their production to meet the supply requirements of
products. There are three types of aggregate planning strategies that organisations
follow to plan for their production. Let’s hear about them from our expert Shyam
This video talked about the following types of aggregate planning strategies:
1. Level strategy
1. Chase strategy
1. Hybrid strategy
As you learnt from this video, the case study deals with understanding the
implications of different ways of fulfilling demand.
Tangible costs include the total logistics cost. It is also known as the total
landed cost or total delivered cost and includes the following costs:
developmental costs associated with the purchase of materials, engineering design, etc.
for transporting the finished goods to the next entity in the supply chain, be it a distributor, a
depot or a customer.
organisation that uses Indian Railways to fulfil its demand. These charges are penalty charges
that an organisation has to bear for using wharves for extended periods of time and for
temporary storage.
2600 tons, there are huge stockpiles of excess inventory. The inability to sell the excess stock
to customers results in product obsolescence (the fine grains in the cement would become
lumpy).
To ensure that all customer demands are met on time and in full.
Let’s now watch the next video where our expert, Shyam, will discuss the current
situation of demand fulfilment in the organisation
As you learnt from Shyam in this video, the organisation had two centres in Tamil
Nadu that produced cement, which had to be transported to all 14 districts of
Kerala. As some of these districts and subdistricts had access to railheads and some
did not, the mode of demand fulfilment was a combination of rail and road.
The table given below summarises and compares the available means of demand
fulfilment.
Mode of
Road Transport Rail Transport
Transport
Lead time
2 days 4 days
(days)
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Containerisation is required to ensure that only full rakes of 2,600 tons are loaded
onto rails. Hence, it resulted in waiting time until 2,600 tons of material were
produced by manufacturing units.
After rail rakes transported the material to goods sheds, there was no
additional external dependence for transporting material to the required
destination.
1. The manufacturer was indifferent to the mode of dispatch; they only wanted a quicker
mode of evacuating their factories in order to achieve higher capacities of manufacturing and
storage.
2. Prima facie, the receiver faced a higher landed cost when the material was transported
by rail. Also using rail as a means of transport resulted in excess supplies, due to which the
But in using rail transport, the receiver was also burdened with the hidden costs of
demurrage, wharfage, inventory holding, redistribution and transportation.
To check if the entire demand could be fulfilled via road, the organisation
compared both modes of transport across all locations in Kerala. When all the costs
were accounted for, the results were evident. Although the landed costs were
higher for road transport, it accounted for a lower overall cost across all locations
in Kerala.
Road transport does not depend on any external labour for handling material.
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Lead times are reduced due to the elimination of excess material and wasteful
expenditure.
Delivered costs are reduced, as there are zero damages to the material.
Now that you are familiar with all the steps under the Sales and Operations
Planning (S&OP) process, let’s bind together all the planning activities you have
learnt so far under the umbrella of S&OP in the next segments.
In the video above, you understood that the sales and operations planning
(S&OP) is an aspect of supply chain planning whose goal is to create a unified,
consensus-based business plan. This consensus is achieved through the cross-
functional collaboration between the following departments:
Sales
Marketing
Manufacturing
Distribution
Finance
Human resources
In the next video, you will understand the need for sales and operations planning
(S&OP)
As you learnt in the video above, there are certain limitations to statistical
forecasting, as it relies heavily on models and historical data to produce estimates.
However, other data, such as revenue, profit projections and marketing events are
often not a part of statistical forecasting.
This major drawback leads to the development of the sales and operation planning
(S&OP) process.
The aim of sales and operations planning (S&OP) is to gain a holistic view of the
planning process by extending the forecasting process to other functions and
departments.
In the next segment, you will learn how sales and operations planning (S&OP)
process functions within an organisation.
Suggested Answer
The marketing team runs several campaigns across a business year. These campaigns
have an impact on the demand for the respective products. Thus, it is vital for other
teams, especially the manufacturing, sales and distribution teams, to know
beforehand when these campaigns are supposed to run so that they can plan their
side of things accordingly.
Incorporation of S&OP in
an Organisation
Sales and operations planning (S&OP) is a complex and time-consuming process.
To incorporate the S&OP process, an organisation has to invest a lot in terms of
time and other resources. Let’s understand the workings of sales and operations
planning (S&OP) in an organisation in the next video
The important points from the video above can be summarised as follows:
Sales and operations planning (S&OP) is an extremely important step in the entire
supply chain planning process, and hence, it is typically led by senior management and
In this iterative process, the results from one planning cycle are compared with those
of the next planning cycle to provide the management with information on trends from across
the business.
Participants of the sales and operations planning (S&OP) meeting evaluate the
projections for supply and demand to ensure that the tactical plans for all business
functions, across geographies, are aligned and support the organisation’s broader strategy.
Let’s now understand the sequencing of activities that are performed within an
organisation under the umbrella of sales and operations planning (S&OP)
Now that you have understood what a sales and operations planning process is,
how it works, why it is required, in the next segment, you will learn about the
different time horizons in a sales and operations planning process.
✓ Correct
Feedback:
With the incorporation of S&OP, the manufacturing, logistics and other supply chain
costs decrease, thereby increasing the overall profitability. Profitability also
increases due to the information flow across cross-departmental teams.
S&OP Horizons
Generally, planning is done for the future. This future can either refer to the next
couple of weeks, months or years. Therefore, it is imperative that this horizon for
the future should be decided beforehand.
The time horizon for S&OP varies from long-term horizon (3-5 years) to short-
term (1-2 months or even less). So, how does a company decide the time horizon
for this activity? Let’s watch the next video to learn more about this
As you learnt in the video above, a sales and operations planning process is defined
in terms of objectives over short-, medium- and long-term periods.
The different time horizons in sales and operations planning (S&OP) are as
follows:
1. Strategic horizon (long-term):
Strategic horizon involves making decisions for the next three to five years. This horizon
1. Expansion of plant
between a producer and a buyer to purchase or sell a specified quantity of the producer’s
production facility.
for the next four months. This horizon includes planning for the following types of decision:
Let’s have a look at the below chart and understand which time horizon is suitable
for which type of supply chain planning activity:
Process Horizons
Forecasting
S&OP
Production planning
Inventory Management
S&OP Horizons
In the table provided below, on the left-hand side, you can see some key decisions
that are taken by the management while planning for sales and operations. On the
right-hand side, the planning horizon (strategic, tactical or operational) is given.
Match each decision with the correct planning horizon.
Sl. Planning
Decisions
No. Horizon
Operating a beverage manufacturing plant in two shifts
1 P Strategic
instead of three due to reduced demand during winter
Relocating the engine manufacturing plant from Gujarat to
2 Q Tactical
Maharashtra
Offering voluntary retirement to 10% of the office staff within
3 R Operational
one year
1-Q, 2-P, 3-R
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Changing operations from three shifts to two shifts in order to deal with the demand
variability is a decision taken in the operational planning horizon.
S&OP Horizons
Match the following:
Sl. Planning
Decisions
No. Horizon
Increasing the headcount of factory workers from 100 to 150 to
1 P Strategic
meet the continuously increasing demand
Setting up manufacturing operations in neighbouring countries
2 Q Tactical
to cater to the rising demand from those areas
Increasing the work hours of factory labourers from the current
3 9 hours to 12 hours for the next couple of weeks to meet the R Operational
sudden spike in demand due to change of season
1-Q, 2-P, 3-R
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Increasing the daily working hours for the next couple of weeks is done to meet the
immediate future demand and, thus, falls in the operational horizon of planning
In the video above, you learnt about a ready-to-eat food manufacturer that operates
on a B2B model. The food manufacturer exports 60% of the goods produced and
sells the remaining 40% in the domestic market. Its manufacturing plants run at
90% utilisation. Now, the manufacturer is facing a supply shortage in both
domestic and export markets.
The image given below summarises the key decisions that the manufacturer needs
to make within the strategic, tactical and operational horizons.
Types of Horizons
In the next segment, you will find the summarised learnings from this session
Answer the following questions to test your learnings from this session. Note that
these questions will not be graded
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Aggregate Planning
If the demand is higher, a company hires additional manpower to increase the
output and meet the demand. If the demand is as usual, the company is able to meet
the demand with the regular number of workers. However, if the demand is low, the
company lays off a certain number of workers to achieve the lower output.
Which of the following issues can arise for this company because of the
aforementioned aggregate planning strategy?
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Lost sales/business
Underutilisation of manpower
Graded questions
The following questions will be graded
Decision Making under Demand Uncertainty
Which of the following products do you think has the highest demand uncertainty?
✕ Incorrect
Feedback:
Face wash is one such product category that is being used by almost everyone
nowadays. It does not have high demand uncertainty.
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Fifth generation defense aircrafts have cutting edge technology and require huge
capital investment for their manufacturing. They are made only in small quantities
and require careful inspection right from their manufacturing and even after their
induction. Thus, they have the highest demand uncertainty within the options
provided.
Aggregate Planning
Company A plans its production according to the forecast demand. It hires additional
manpower when the demand is high and lays off manpower during the period of
lean demand. Which of the following aggregate planning strategies does it deploy?
Level strategy
Chase strategy
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Aggregate Planning
Company B is in the small water turbine manufacturing business. The manufacturing
process is a complex one and requires heavy training of the workforce. Thus, the
company does not lay off its workforce frequently. The demand for small water
turbines is constant throughout the year.
Which of the following aggregate planning strategies does it deploy?
Level strategy
✓ Correct
Feedback:
Chase strategy
Hybrid strategy